Charles Payne Show March 19, 2025

Bring him monetarymacro.com to see how Joseph Wayne Joe. You know, there isn't a single product I can think of in America that's not made with more foreign parts than a 787. So if both of you are saying things are going to be OK, should we be as anxious as we are when it comes to these tariffs? Well, first off, this is a really good point. I think the market is a bit too anxious about tariffs. Now, to be clear, big things are happening, and the market should be a little bit upset. But let's take a step back, right? We had tariffs from Trump first start, Biden continue them, and they are OK. Take a look around the world, China, massive tariffs, and look what happened to them. Massive industrial economy, manufacturing economy, literally lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, right? So tariffs can have a good outcome as well. So the market isn't pricing that.

把他带到monetarymacro.com去看看Joseph Wayne Joe。你知道吗，美国没有一种我能想到的产品所用的外国零件比787还少。所以，如果你们都说情况会好转，我们在关税问题上是否应该像现在这样焦虑呢？首先，这的确是个好问题。我认为市场对关税的担忧有些过于严重。要明确的是，确实发生了很多重要的事情，市场应该有些反应。但让我们退一步来看，我们经历了特朗普任期开始的关税政策，拜登也延续了这些政策，而且情况还算不错。看看全世界，尤其是中国，他们经历了巨额关税，结果呢? 一个庞大的工业经济体，制造业不断发展，实际上使数亿人摆脱了贫困。由此看来，关税也能产生积极的结果。但市场并没有对这种可能性进行定价。

Now, one thing I note, though, is that if you look at American manufacturing, it's been hollowed out. The labor force participation rate for people, young men, prime age, without a college degree, has fallen by 10% of children over the past few decades. Right. What we're doing right now is not working. We're leaving too many people behind. By the way, that dovetails, that young men's crisis, dovetails with the fentanyl crisis, which is also part of the North American tariff plan. Also, let's stop having these drugs pour in. But also, let's rebuild those industrial cities where these young men had a future, had dreams and hopes, and had fathers who worked there.

现在，我注意到的一件事是，如果你看看美国的制造业，它已经被掏空了。在过去几十年中，没有大学学位的年轻男性的劳动力参与率下降了10%。我们现在采取的措施并不奏效，太多人被落在了后面。顺便一提，这个年轻男性的危机与芬太尼危机相辅相成，而这也是北美关税计划的一部分。此外，我们要阻止这些毒品流入，同时也要重建那些工业城市，让这些年轻人有未来、有梦想、有希望，他们的父辈也曾在那里工作。

You just brought up the Trump 1.0 tariffs. I don't know that people realize that they never went away. In fact, Biden hiked some of them. So far, coming into the air, $264 billion of America is taking in from tariffs, and only $89 billion was from Trump. Biden got $175 billion of it. So the idea that there's so far in federal, that we've had them since the 1700s, to your point, there will be a sort of shock to the system. By the same token, if they went on for a while, one firm said we could make $250 billion a year from them. So there is some, the money aspect of this.

你刚才提到了特朗普1.0关税。我认为很多人不知道这些关税并没有取消。事实上，拜登还提高了一些关税。截至目前，美国从关税中获得了2640亿美元，其中只有890亿美元是从特朗普时期开始的，而拜登占了1750亿美元。因此，正如你所提到的，自1700年代以来，我们一直有联邦关税，如果它们被取消，系统将受到一定程度的冲击。另一方面，如果这些关税持续一段时间，有公司表示我们每年可以从中赚取2500亿美元。因此，这其中确实存在金融利益。

Let me talk to you about the inflationary part of this. Is it going to add to inflation? Because you think the Fed's going to over tighten, right? Yeah, the inflation part. It's a little bit of a scare picture. It's possible. But remember, the first time we had tariffs, it wasn't inflationary, right? CPI backed it around 2%. Now, it's really complicated. There are currency impacts, substitution impacts. So I wouldn't really worry about that. And it's really possible that the Fed's going to be involved. Because consumers are concerned about it. This is a New York Fed. This is a little better than the Michigan survey, which is very political. You can see the red line moving up. There's a little anxiety out there. Sometimes, Jay Powell worries that if people believe in their inflation, there might be inflation. It's sort of a self-fulfilling thing.

让我跟你谈谈通货膨胀的部分。它会增加通胀吗？因为你认为美联储会过度紧缩，对吧？是的，通胀的部分有一点吓人。这是可能的。但要记住，第一次我们有关税的时候，它并没有引发通胀，对吧？消费者物价指数（CPI）当时维持在大约2%。现在，情况变得非常复杂，有货币影响、替代影响。所以我不会太担心这一点。而且美联储可能会介入，因为消费者对此感到担忧。这是纽约联储的数据，比非常政治化的密歇根调查要好一些。你可以看到红线在上升，这显示出一些焦虑。杰罗姆·鲍威尔有时担心，如果人们相信通胀，那可能真的会有通胀。这有点像自我实现的预言。

Are you buying that? So tariffs could have a one-time impact on the level of price. So prices could be higher. But inflation is the rate of change. It's something different. And I think consumers are confused a little bit about that. You say this could be like 2018, where we're living in right now. And I think that's a very valid point. We only have 30 seconds ago. But we're going to pull up that 2018 chart. Because that's, of course, President Trump, tariffs, the unknown, a lot of negative stories. The markets swooned a little bit. But we came back pretty good. I think that's the playbook right now. We see the markets swooning. And at the end of the day, there is no Trump put as Treasury Secretary Bessin told us. But there is definitely a Fed put.

你相信吗？关税可能对价格水平产生一次性影响，因此价格可能会上涨。但通货膨胀是变化的速度，这是不同的。我认为消费者对此有些困惑。你说这可能像2018年，我们现在就处在这样的情形中。我认为这个观点很有道理。我们只有30秒时间，但我们会调出2018年的图表。因为那是特朗普执政时期，关税和各种未知情况导致很多负面消息，市场曾经波动不小，但后来恢复得不错。我认为这就是现在的情况。我们看到市场波动，但最终没有特朗普救市，就像财政部长Bessin说的。但肯定有美联储的支撑。

The Fed has their mandate, full employment price stability. And as that stock market drops, the Fed put is going to come in. They're going to be worried about growth. They're going to be worried about employment. And that's going to cause, I think, another U-turn in the stock market. So I'm waiting for that Fed put. When it comes out, I think that's when I would get into it. All right, maybe we'll get some inkling of it that later on in about a few minutes. Joe, thank you very much.

美联储有他们的职责，即实现充分就业和价格稳定。随着股市下跌，美联储的“保险”会介入。他们会担心经济增长和就业问题。我认为，这将引发股市的又一次反弹。因此，我在等待美联储的这次“保险”措施。一旦出现，我觉得那就是我要进入市场的时机。好的，或许我们在稍后几分钟内会对此有一些暗示。乔，非常感谢你。