Markets Weekly March 15, 2025

Hello my friends, today is March 15th and this is Markets Weekly. So this week I'm on the road so we'll be a little brief. Today let's talk about three things. First, we have to talk about the price action in the past week. It was a very volatile and exciting week in markets. Secondly, let's talk a little bit about the economic data, especially the inflation data we had the past week. And lastly, let's have an update on the ongoing trade war.

你好，朋友们，今天是3月15日，欢迎收听《市场周报》。本周我在外出差，所以会简短一些。今天我们来聊三件事。首先，我们要谈谈过去一周的价格走势，上周市场波动很大，非常精彩。其次，聊一聊经济数据，尤其是我们上周获得的通胀数据。最后，更新一下正在进行的贸易战的最新情况。

So starting with price action. First off, I'd like to direct you to my markets out of 2025. I gave in December where I gave a year in target of 5500 for the S&P 500, 3,000 gold and 4% in your yield. Now between now and then, it seems like everything has moved in the direction that I guided towards. So again, I'm fairly happy with that. And to be clear, nothing goes in a straight line. But starting with equities, the past week was a very volatile week in equities.

好的，我们先从价格走势说起。首先，我想带大家回顾一下我在2025年的市场预测。我在去年12月给出的预测中，设定了标普500指数的目标是5500点，黄金价格是3000美元，收益率是4%。目前来看，一切似乎都在朝着我所预测的方向发展，所以对此我感到相当满意。需要明确的是，市场走势不会一直是直线。但就股票市场而言，过去一周股票市场的波动非常大。

We had a big swing up and down the whole week. But on a week over week basis, price didn't really change that much. On Friday, we did finally get that huge ball cross we talked about last week and that pushed the S&P 500 up to 2%. Now it does seem like the S&P 500 and the major equity indexes are becoming a little bit more stable. Again, it didn't continue to decline last week. It does seem like we're finding some degree of support.

我们这周的行情波动很大，但整体来看，价格一周之间并没有太大变化。周五的时候，我们终于看到了上周提到的那个重要的技术信号，这推动了标普500指数上涨了2%。现在看来，标普500指数和主要股票指数开始变得更为稳定。上周它们没有继续下滑，似乎找到了某种支撑。

But I think the trajectory of this is going to be in large part dependent upon headlines, again, how the trade war progresses. But with volatility coming down, it does give me the sense that, you know, maybe there's less panic in the market. The market structure is a little bit more stable. And so it doesn't seem like we'll get that much instability going forward. And of course, nothing goes in a straight line.

但我认为，这一趋势在很大程度上将取决于新闻，特别是贸易战的发展。不过，随着市场波动性的下降，我感觉可能市场上的恐慌情绪有所减弱，市场结构也更加稳定。因此，未来可能不会出现太多的不稳定。当然，任何事情的发展都不是一帆风顺的。

I wouldn't be surprised if we did bounce for a few days or even a few weeks. Looking at the 10-year yield, we came down as low as, let's say, 4.2%, but did revert to 4.3% towards the end of the week. Now heading into the year, the market was only pricing in one Fed cut. I've been bogged vocal for the past few months. That's not reasonable. My base case continues to be 4 to 6 cuts this year.

我不会感到惊讶，如果市场反弹持续几天甚至几周。观察10年期债券收益率，我们曾跌至大约4.2%，但在一周结束时又回升到4.3%。年初时，市场只预计美联储会降息一次。这几个月来，我都持续地强调，这不合理。我的基本预期是今年会有4到6次降息。

But today, the market is pricing in about 3 cuts. The market is taking note of the geopolitical risk, the tariff risk, and of course, the economic data has been surprising to the downside. So the market is pricing in a few more cuts. You know, that seems reasonable for now. And we'll see. And we'll look at the data, which we'll talk about in the next section to see how that will continue. And the last thing that I'm going to pick the note is gold.

但今天，市场预计会有大约三次降息。市场已经注意到了地缘政治风险、关税风险，当然，还有一直表现不佳的经济数据。所以市场预计会有更多的降息。目前看来，这似乎是合理的。我们还要看看数据如何变化，我们会在下一个部分讨论这些数据。最后我要提到的是黄金。

Gold surged to $3,000. And I'm not really sure if there was any discrete news driver. We've talked about gold before. Many people buy gold for different reasons. It could be due to monetary policy. It could be due to geopolitical risk. And it could even be due to tariffs as people are worried that maybe gold will be tariffs and try to get through gold into the United States ASAP. So gold looks up.

黄金飙升至每盎司3000美元。我不太确定是否有明确的新闻推动了这一现象。我们之前讨论过黄金。许多人出于不同的原因购买黄金。可能是因为货币政策的变化，也可能是由于地缘政治风险，甚至可能是因为关税，人们担心黄金可能会被征收关税，因此急于将黄金尽快运入美国。所以，黄金看涨。

I'm not really sure why gold went to $3,000. But it seems like a lot of people like gold. It could be central banks continuing to diversify. But the trend continues to be higher. Nothing goes in a straight line. But I think there could be that someone knows something. Again, we have a lot of geopolitical risk bring the background. So let's keep gold in mind and watch it closely in the coming weeks.

我不太确定为什么黄金涨到了3000美元。不过，似乎很多人都喜欢黄金。这可能是因为各国央行继续进行多元化投资。但是，趋势仍在上升。没有什么东西会一直直线上升。不过，我觉得可能有人知道些什么。另外，我们面临很多地缘政治风险。这就让我们在未来几周里关注黄金，密切观察它的动向。

All right. Secondly, let's talk a little bit about the economic data. So this past week, we had CPI and PPI. Now, the market has been fully focused on inflation for the past couple of years and continued to be focused about inflation now. CPI was pretty hot in January, but there was some thinking that maybe this was just kind of some kind of seasonality effect.

好的。其次，我们来谈谈经济数据。本周，我们看到了CPI（消费者价格指数）和PPI（生产者价格指数）。过去几年里，市场一直密切关注通胀，并且这种关注仍在持续。1月份的CPI表现相当强劲，但有人认为这可能只是某种季节性因素造成的。

So last year, we had a very hot January print followed by pretty moderate prints in February and March. The reason behind that is that a lot of times businesses raise prices in January, just the raise prices for the year. And that makes January inflation look higher than look pretty high and gives impression that inflation is out of control. Now, the economists are supposed to adjust for this with seasonal adjustments, but those adjustments aren't perfect.

去年，我们经历了一个非常火热的1月份数据，然后是2月和3月相对温和的数据。这背后的原因是，很多企业会选择在1月份提高价格，以便调整全年价格。这使得1月的通胀显得很高，给人一种通胀失控的印象。经济学家本应通过季节性调整来对此进行修正，但这些调整并不完美。

Now CPI this year, hot in January, but the CPI we got last year for last week for February was pretty cool. On a month-over-month basis, core CPI was only 0.2%. So it does seem like the hot January print was just seasonal effects. PPI was also a bit cooler than expected. Again, the Fed doesn't care about CPR or PCI. What they care about is PCE.

今年的消费者价格指数（CPI），1月份表现火热，但我们上周得到的2月份CPI却相当冷淡。按月环比计算，核心CPI仅增长了0.2%。所以，1月份的高增幅可能只是季节性影响。生产者价格指数（PPI）也比预期的要低一些。不过，美联储不太关注CPI或PPI，他们关心的是个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）。

Unfortunately, the components in the CPI and PPI that feed into PCE were not really cool. If you look at the Cleveland Fed's forecast, they're thinking that PC, core PC would be about 2.6% year over year. So that's not super high. It's just a little bit above the Fed's target, but it does show that inflation progress as per the PCE has basically stalled. So looking at inflation expectations, which the Fed has been talking about, we're getting some pretty crazy inflation expectation reads based on the latest surveys. Democrats are basically having a 6.5% inflation expectations for the near-term, Republicans about 0.5%. So how you think about the tariff war is affecting how you think about inflation expectations, and it's getting really crazy for some parts of the population. This is a reflection of how fragmented our political system is and of our media ecosystem as well.

不幸的是，参与到个人消费支出（PCE）中的消费者物价指数（CPI）和生产者物价指数（PPI）的组成部分并没有显示出降温的迹象。如果你看克利夫兰联储的预测，他们认为核心个人消费支出（核心PCE）的年增长率大约为2.6%。虽然这不算非常高，只是略高于美联储的目标，但这表明根据PCE衡量，通胀的改善基本上已经停滞。查看通胀预期，美联储一直在讨论这个话题，我们正根据最新的调查得到一些非常疯狂的通胀预期读数。民主党人对短期的通胀预期大约为6.5%，共和党人则约为0.5%。因此，人们对关税战的看法正在影响他们对通胀预期的看法，而这对某些群体来说变得非常混乱。这反映了我们政治体制的分裂性以及我们的媒体生态系统的现状。

If you listen to some left-leaning channels, they'll be telling you non-stop, trade war very bad, inflation out of control, and I think that's scaring some portion of the population. Now, the Fed in the past has communicated very focused more on long-related inflation expectations, and if you look at those, those are taking up a little bit, but still pretty low, and Fed officials have described them as contained. So I'm not sure they're going to pay too much attention to these gyruses and short-inflation expectations, although it does show that at least some portion of the public is getting really panicked. Something also interesting in recent consumer surveys is this job prospects on jobs, and this was flagged by Renes von Tmachro, who also has a really good weekly podcast that I recommend.

如果你收听一些左倾的频道，他们会不停地告诉你，贸易战很糟糕，通货膨胀失控。我认为这让一部分人感到害怕。过去，美联储一直专注于长期的通胀预期，如果你观察这些数据，虽然有所上升，但仍然相对较低，美联储官员也认为这些预期尚在控制中。因此，我不确定美联储会过多关注这些波动和短期通胀预期，尽管这些波动显示至少部分民众真的感到恐慌。最近的消费者调查中还有一个有趣的现象，就是对就业前景的看法。这一点是由Renes von Tmachro指出的，他还有一个非常不错的每周播客，我推荐你去听听。

Now, Neil Dottow over there, who is their chief economist, has flagged up consumer seem to be more and more downbeat on the job market. There's some nuance to this. Parker Rose, who also does very good economics, has another survey showing that, you know, if you are a white collar worker, someone who's making higher income, your job prospects, your perception of your job prospects is declining. But if you are a blue collar worker, someone who is making lower income, you're actually feeling pretty confident about your job prospects. So overall, it seems like a lot of people who are higher income are feeling pretty downbeat on the job market right now, and I think that's not surprising.

现在，那边的首席经济学家Neil Dottow指出，消费者对就业市场的看法越来越悲观。不过，这其中有一些细微差别。另一位经济学家Parker Rose的调查显示，如果你是高收入的白领工作者, 你对工作前景的预期正在下降。但是，如果你是低收入的蓝领工作者，你反而对工作前景感到很有信心。所以，总的来看，许多高收入人群对当前的就业市场感到相当悲观，我觉得这并不令人惊讶。

We do see a lot of anecdotally, we see a lot of layoffs in big private sector companies, getting like the big tech companies, and if you're in the public sector, of course, doge is continually telling you that they're going to cut jobs. So I can understand if white collar workers feel a little bit more downbeat, and maybe that will feed into the economic data going forward. So far, though, looking at the jobless claims data and the NMP data, we don't see hugely out so far, but I think a lot of people expect to see that in the data in the coming months.

我们确实听说很多关于大公司，尤其是大型科技公司裁员的传闻。此外，如果你在公共部门工作，情况也不乐观，因为总有消息称要裁减职位。因此，我能理解为什么白领工人会感到有些沮丧，并且这种情绪可能会在未来反映到经济数据中。不过，到目前为止，根据失业救济申请数据和非农就业（NMP）数据，我们还没有看到特别糟糕的情况，但我认为很多人预计在接下来的几个月里数据会显示出这种趋势。

All right, the last thing that we want to talk about is updates on the tariff war front. Now, one thing I would add before we go into that is that there seems to be a last minute deal between Democrats and Republicans to avert a government shutdown. And so that takes away a little bit of the terrible risk that could have been weighing on the market. It does actually relate to monetary policy too as well. There was some thinking by Fed officials that if we did have a government shutdown, maybe they would end quantitative tightening soon, maybe as soon as this coming week. But with the shutdown averted, it looks like quantity of timing can continue for a little bit more, maybe several more months.

好的，我们最后要讨论的是关于关税战的最新动态。在此之前，我想补充一点，似乎民主党和共和党之间达成了一项最后时刻的协议，避免了政府关门。因此，这在一定程度上消除了本可能给市场带来压力的严重风险。这实际上也与货币政策有关。美联储官员曾认为，如果真的发生政府关门，他们可能会很快结束量化紧缩，可能会在下周就结束。但随着政府关门被避免，量化紧缩看起来可以继续一段时间，可能会持续几个月。

Now on the tariff front, again, the big date is April 2nd, but this past week we didn't get big developments on steel and aluminum tariffs where President Trump put on 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. This is something that Trump did during his first term as well, so it shouldn't surprise anyone. Now, the rationale for this is national security. Thinking is that if the US ever were to fight a war, obviously they need to be able to produce their own steel and aluminum, so these industries must be protected.

在关税方面，重要的日子是4月2日。不过在过去的一周里，在钢铁和铝的关税上并没有大的进展。特朗普总统对钢铁和铝进口实施了25%的关税，这也是他在第一任期内做过的事情，所以这不应该让人感到意外。实行这些关税的理由是国家安全的考虑。想法是，如果美国真的要打仗的话，显然需要能够自己生产钢铁和铝，因此这些产业必须得到保护。

Now, when you say national security here, basically it's kind of a hard block, so I think that there's not too much opposition to this. Now, curiously though, you don't actually hear a lot of opposition from Democrats about the tariffs on autos and so forth either. I think right now a big part of that is that the Democratic Party really wants to win back the Rust Belt voters and it seems like a lot of the manufacturing blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt really do support these tariffs. Very interesting letter from the United Auto Workers, not too long ago. Actually they had an official statement in support of these tariffs and noting that they think that NAFTA, the North America Free Trade Agreement was a big contributor to the demise of the US manufacturing sector.

现在，当你提到国家安全时，这基本上是一个很硬的界限，所以我觉得对此不会有太多反对意见。不过，有趣的是，你实际上也听不到太多民主党对于汽车关税等问题的反对。我认为，现在民主党的一大原因是他们非常想赢回铁锈地带的选民，而似乎铁锈地带的许多制造业蓝领选民确实支持这些关税。前不久，美国汽车工人联合会发来了一封非常有趣的信。他们实际上发表了一个官方声明，支持这些关税，并指出他们认为《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）是导致美国制造业衰退的一大因素。

So if you are an opposition party and you want to win back the Rust Belt voters, it's a very difficult line to walk and they don't seem to be voicing too much opposition to these heavy industry tariffs. So that seems to be going through. Now, if you look at the data, these steel and aluminum tariffs are going to impact Canada the most because as far as steel and aluminum imports, most of them come, a large portion of them come from Canada. Now when I listen to the earnings calls of the steel and aluminum companies in the US, they're all very happy with this obviously and they point to the fact that the premium of domestic or pro-domestically produced steel and aluminum and imported is whining. So that seems to be helping their industry. Now very, very bad news for Canada of course, which is in an ongoing trade war right now on many fronts.

如果你是一个反对党，并且想要赢回铁锈地带的选民，这是一项非常困难的任务。目前，他们似乎对这些重工业关税并没有表现出太多反对意见，所以这些关税似乎正在顺利推进。如果你查看数据，这些钢铁和铝的关税将对加拿大的影响最大，因为在钢铁和铝的进口中，大部分来自加拿大。当我听美国钢铁和铝公司的财报电话时，他们显然非常高兴，并指出本土生产的钢铝与进口钢铝的价差正在缩小，所以这似乎对他们的行业有利。然而，这对加拿大是非常糟糕的消息，因为加拿大目前在多个方面陷入贸易战。

Now in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs, we did see the European Union impose retaliatory tariffs on the US and Canada as well. Now these countries are taking very different direction from other countries. Now Australia and Brazil faced with these tariffs, decided to not impose any retaliatory tariffs and said that they're just going to negotiate. They're basically following President of Mexico, Claudia Shinebaum's approach, not being escalatory, just taking the tariffs and saying that they're going to work with administration, trying to get a bigger deal after April. And this has been very successful for Mexico.

现在，为了应对钢铁和铝的关税，欧盟对美国和加拿大也实施了报复性关税。而这些国家与其他国家的做法截然不同。面对这些关税，澳大利亚和巴西决定不采取报复性关税，而是表示将通过谈判解决。他们基本上是在效仿墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·申鮑姆的方法，不采取激烈行动，只是接受关税，并表示将与政府合作，争取在四月后达成更大的协议。这种策略对墨西哥非常成功。

Now it could be because Claudia is in a very different political position. She already won her election. Now she has to be a good steward of the Mexican economy in order to win reelection if she decides to seek it. In contrast, looking at Canada, they're right now in their political cycle about to have an election in the coming months. Now these tariff war has been bad for their economy but very, very good for the political fortunes of the Little World Party over there. The Little Party, which is the party of Justin Trudeau and today Prime Minister Mark Carney over there, they have been doing very poorly in the polls but this trade war has really revived their political prospects.

现在，这可能是因为克劳迪娅处于一个非常不同的政治位置。她已经赢得了选举，现在她必须出色管理墨西哥经济，以便在她选择再次参选时赢得连任。相比之下，加拿大目前正处于政治周期中，即将迎来几个月后的选举。现在，这场关税战争对他们的经济不利，但却对那里的小世界党的政治前景非常有利。小世界党是贾斯廷·特鲁多和现任总理马克·卡尼所在的党派，他们在民调中表现不佳，但这次贸易战确实振兴了他们的政治前景。

It seems like there's a very big rally around the flag movement in Canada and who knows, maybe the Liberal Party will actually stay in power in the coming at the next election. So it seems like it's in their interest to have this trade war and so they're very much escalating this. Now this past week, there's a story in Bloomberg, which seems like Mark Carney is even hinting that maybe they won't be buying F-35 from the United States because of the trade war. This is going to have severe downsides on the Canadian economy because Canada is a lot more reliant upon the US than vice versa but it could be a good political move for them.

看起来加拿大国内正在掀起一股强烈的支持政府的运动，谁知道呢，也许自由党在接下来的选举中会继续执政。所以促使这场贸易战升级可能对他们有利。在过去的一周里，有一个彭博社的报道建议称，马克·卡尼甚至暗示可能因为贸易战，加拿大不会从美国购买F-35战机。这将对加拿大经济产生严重的负面影响，因为加拿大对美国的依赖程度要大得多，而美国对加拿大的依赖相对较小。但从政治上来说，这可能是一个对他们有利的动作。

This past week, we also had the Bank of Canada cut rates to support the economy and maybe they will continue to cut rates. So going forward again, the steel aluminum thing that doesn't seem like it's going to change, it seems like the Democrats are okay with it so this is going to be something that sticks. The big tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs coming on April 2nd and we'll see what happens over there. Now again, as more and more countries become more, again, follow the Claudia Shain-Bam motto of being non-confrontational, I think that takes away a lot of the downsides this could happen. That could happen to the stock market in the economy but again, we're going to see what the other actors do. Canada and the EU so far are not on the same train and they're a big part of the global economy.

在过去的一周，加拿大银行降低了利率以支持经济，未来可能还会进一步降息。钢铁和铝的问题看起来没有改变的迹象，民主党人似乎对此表示认可，所以这个问题似乎会持续下去。大规模关税和对等关税将于4月2日生效，我们将关注事态的发展。目前，随着越来越多的国家遵循克劳迪娅·沙因巴姆的非对抗性策略，这可能会减少经济和股市面临的不利因素。然而，我们还是要看看其他国家的行动。到目前为止，加拿大和欧盟对这一策略并不买账，而它们在全球经济中扮演着重要角色。

All right, so that's all prepared for today. This Palm Week is an FOMC week so I'll be back to talk about what happened on the FOMC so guys, I'll talk to you all then.

好的，今天的准备工作就到这里。本周是美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）周，所以我会回来和大家聊聊FOMC的情况。那我们到时候见。