Markets Weekly March 1, 2025
发布时间 2025-03-01 18:41:21 来源
Hello, my friends. Today is March 1st and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a very exciting week in markets. As we were in a couple of weeks ago, we seem to be in the process of topping. So first, let's talk about what happened in the past week. And secondly, let's talk about why March 4th is emerging as a focal point that could determine the trajectory of the markets in the next few weeks.
你好，我的朋友们。今天是3月1日，这是《每周市场》栏目。过去的一周在市场上非常精彩。正如我们几周前所处的情况一样，我们似乎正处于一个峰值过程。那么首先，让我们谈谈过去一周发生了什么。其次，谈谈为什么3月4日正在成为一个关键点，这个关键点可能会决定未来几周市场的走向。
Okay, first, looking back the past week, you know, we had a few down days and we had a big jump on Friday. But overall, it seems like at least looking at the major indexes, we are losing momentum. Now, the S&P 500 is only a few percent below all-time highs, but it's been somewhat range-bound over the past few months. So you can see those moving averages slowly plateauing and trending lower. That is reason for caution.
好的，首先，回顾过去的一周，我们经历了几天的下跌，然后在星期五出现了大幅反弹。但总体来说，至少从主要指数来看，我们的势头在减弱。目前，标准普尔500指数仅比历史最高点低几个百分点，但在过去几个月中一直在一定范围内波动。所以你可以看到移动均线在慢慢趋向平台化并且趋势向下。这是需要谨慎的原因。
But when you look at investor sentiment, investors have become pretty bearish, even though we are not far from all-time highs. This survey of investors shows a huge jump in bearishness and judging by the reaction on social media. There are also many retail investors that are unhappy as well. I think part of that reason is because that even though on the index level, we don't see big losses looking beneath the index level, some of the more speculative plays have been doing very poorly.
当你观察投资者情绪时，可以发现投资者变得非常悲观，尽管目前市场距离历史高点不远。这项投资者调查显示，悲观情绪大幅上升，从社交媒体上的反应来看，很多散户投资者也感到不满。我认为部分原因在于，尽管从指数层面来看，我们没有看到大的损失，但在指数之下，一些更具投机性的投资表现非常差。
Looking at Palantir, for example, Palantir absolutely skyrocketed the past few months, but, you know, in a short amount of time is down 30%. Looking at another very speculative and famous asset, Bitcoin, is also down 10% in a short amount of time. And of course, everyone's favorite Nvidia, even though we had earnings that at least met expectations, looking at moving averages is very clear. It's losing momentum as well. So a lot of the investments that have been working very well, these momentum trades over the past year have not been doing well.
以Palantir为例，这家公司在过去几个月里股价猛涨，但很快又下跌了30%。再看看另一个非常投机且知名的资产，比特币，它在短时间内也下跌了10%。还有大家喜欢的英伟达，即使它的财报至少符合预期，但看移动平均线就能清楚地看出，它也在失去动能。因此，很多过去一年表现非常好的投资，比如这些动能交易，现在表现不太好。
And we can imagine that investors that are really exposed to them have not been very well. These have become so popular that you even have all these levered ETFs sprouting up, I try to capitalize on the momentum. And these levered ETFs have done very, very poorly. So it's easy to see how investors could be feeling fairly negative, even though the big indexes only show very modest declines.
我们可以想象，那些对这些投资非常依赖的投资者可能状态不佳。这些投资变得如此受欢迎，以至于市场上涌现了很多杠杆ETF，试图利用这种势头。然而，这些杠杆ETF的表现非常差。所以，即便大型指数只显示出很小幅度的下跌，投资者感到相当悲观也是可以理解的。
But aside from that though, taking a step back, the broader picture thus suggests that growth is slowing. Now we can see that in the PMI numbers, we can see that in sentiment surveys, and we can see that in the Atlanta GDP now, which now forecasts a shocking decline. Now to be perfectly clear, a lot of that is really just due to imports. It seems like a lot of businesses are worried about tariffs and so are front loading their imports.
不过，撇开这些不谈，退一步看，大局显示增长正在放缓。我们在采购经理人指数（PMI）中可以看到这点，也能在情绪调查中看出来，甚至在亚特兰大GDP Now的预测中也明显表露了出来，该预测目前显示出惊人的下降。需要澄清的是，这很大程度上是因为进口的原因。很多企业似乎担心关税问题，因此提前大量进口。
Now the way GDP is calculated is that what GDP is trying to measure the goods and services the country produces. One way to measure that is to basically figure out what everyone is spending, right? Because one person's spending is another person's income. If you can tally up what everyone is spending, you get a good idea of what the economy is producing. However, some of that spending goes to foreign producers, so that spending that actually doesn't isn't part of GDP.
GDP的计算方式是为了衡量一个国家生产的商品和服务。衡量这一点的一个方法是基本上计算出每个人的支出，因为一个人的支出就是另一个人的收入。如果你能统计出每个人的支出，就能大致了解经济在生产什么。然而，其中部分支出是流向外国厂商的，所以这样的支出实际上不属于GDP的一部分。
So it's not goods and services produced in this country. When you have a lot of imports, well that spending, that's a lot of spending that goes abroad, that has to be subtracted from GDP. And so the front loading of tariffs, say maybe you wanted to buy a bunch of machinery later on in the year, decided to front load that in the first quarter instead or the fourth quarter of last year, then that's going to have an impact on GDP.
这段话的意思是：这指的不是在本国生产的商品和服务。当有大量进口时，这些支出有很多是花在国外的，需要从国内生产总值（GDP）中扣除。因此，如果由于关税而提前购买设备，比如本来打算在年中的时候购买，但决定在第一季度或者上一年的第四季度提前购买，这样的决定也会对GDP产生影响。
And that will probably be unwound over the coming quarters. So, again, don't be too worried about that negative print. But aside from that though, other survey data does suggest slowing GDP. And so there's reason for caution. And you can see this in interest rates as well. You can see the tenure yield has declined notably after hitting a local high at 4.8%.
这可能会在接下来的几个季度内逐步消除。因此，不必过于担心那个负面的结果。但除此之外，其他调查数据确实显示GDP增长在放缓，所以需要保持谨慎。你也可以从利率中看到这一点，10年期国债收益率在触及4.8%的局部高点后明显下降。
Now, in addition to that, I think there is, I think, increased confidence that maybe Doge is going to do, is going to do it make a dent in fiscal spending. Now, fiscal spending, of course, it's very large and unsustainable. Everyone agrees on that. So having less fiscal spending would be good for the longer-term health of the country.
现在，除此之外，我认为，人们对狗狗币可能会在财政支出上有所影响的信心有所增加。当然，财政支出非常庞大且难以持续，大家对此都达成共识。因此，减少财政支出对国家的长期健康是有利的。
The government accountability office themselves estimates that we could have as much as $500 billion in annual fraud, not waste fraud in the budget. So, Elon is working hard to try to shrink the government spending. Now, there's this interesting chart by Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics looking up and tallying up what Doge has done so far. And it looks like they've done about $100,000, $100,000 in layoffs.
政府问责办公室估计，我们每年可能有高达5000亿美元的欺诈，而不是预算浪费。因此，Elon 正在努力缩减政府开支。现在有一个由彭博经济学家Anna Wong制作的有趣图表，统计了Doge目前的行动成果。看起来他们已经裁员了大约10万人。
Again, that's from the buyouts and the very public terminations of agencies like USAID and so forth. But Anna makes a very interesting point in that this kind of doesn't show the whole picture though, because a lot of the size in the federal government is not in its direct employees, but also through this big complex of grants. If you look at the federal employment over the past few decades, strangely, it's been about $2 million for some time. Now, that doesn't make sense. As after all, we know the government is growing. We know the economy is growing, so how is employment kind of around $2 million?
再次说明，这涉及到像美国国际开发署（USAID）这样的机构的买断和公开解雇。但是安娜指出了一个非常有趣的观点，这并不能显示整个情况，因为联邦政府规模的扩大不仅仅体现在直接雇员上，还包括通过各种复杂的资助项目。如果你查看过去几十年的联邦雇员人数，会发现在某个时间人数大约维持在200万。这看起来有些不合理。毕竟，我们知道政府在发展，经济在增长，那么雇员人数怎么会保持在200万左右呢？
So a big reason is that it seems like many agencies in the federal government decided that a better way to operate is to, instead of hiring people directly, just to hire a lot of contractors. Now, contractors can be fired at will, whereas it's very difficult to fire federal employees. And sometimes contractors can do a better job as well. Now, there's this interesting work by Brookings, and this is from a few years ago, that shows that even though the direct employment of federal employees is only $2 million, if you, the contractors and everyone else, it's several million more.
所以，一个主要原因是，联邦政府中的许多机构似乎认为，一种更好的运作方式是，不直接雇佣员工，而是雇用大量的承包商。承包商可以随时解雇，而解雇联邦雇员非常困难。有时承包商的工作表现也更出色。布鲁金斯学会在几年前做的一项有趣的研究显示，即使联邦直接雇佣的员工只有200万人，加上承包商和其他相关人员，这一数字要多出好几百万。
And these contractors are paid through grants and other forms of spending. So as Elon is cutting federal employees, he's also cutting things like grants and spending and so forth. And it's very public about that on the doge, Twitter handle, which everyone should check out. And that's likely going to have a bigger impact on unemployment and growth than the market is thinking. As the federal government shrinks in its spending, that's definitely going to have, in the short term, some growth impacts and perhaps the market is reacting to that as well.
这些承包商通过拨款和其他形式的支出获得报酬。因此，当埃隆削减联邦雇员时，他也在削减拨款和支出等。这在他的Doge推特账户上非常公开，大家都应该去看看。这可能对失业率和经济增长的影响会比市场预期的更大。随着联邦政府缩减支出，这肯定会在短期内对增长产生一些影响，也许市场对此也有所反应。
Again, this is all up in the air. Doge is still in its early phases and subject to many legal challenges, but it does seem like there is some determination to reduce government spending. In the short run, that's going to have an impact on growth. But eventually, everyone is going to the economy of restructure and the laid off contractors and federal workers will go and find work elsewhere. In the private sector. Now, these, all of this, of course, low in growth cuts fiscal fiscal restraint and all that. It's all weighing on the markets as well as the retrenchment of over leverage place.
这仍然是不确定的。Doge仍处于早期阶段，并面临许多法律挑战，但似乎有一些努力在减少政府开支。短期内，这会对经济增长产生影响。但最终，经济将会重组，被裁员的承包商和联邦员工将会在私人部门找到其他工作。当然，所有这些降低增长的举措、财政紧缩等，都对市场造成了压力，以及过度杠杆化的重组问题。
But I think a big thing is looking forward is the increasing prospect of tariffs as we get closer to April 2nd. So secondly, let's talk about the state of tariffs. Now, remember, just a few weeks ago, President Trump suggested that he would put 25% tariffs under IE Palazz on Canada and Mexico. And at the last moment decided to not do it or suspend it for one month. And now that time is coming again. And so there is again, concerning the market about whether or not President Trump will come and put those tariffs on. He has been suggesting publicly that he will do so.
我认为，展望未来，一个重要的方面是随着我们接近4月2日，关税前景日益增加。其次，让我们谈谈关税的现状。请记住，就在几周前，特朗普总统曾表示，他将对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税。但在最后一刻，他决定不这样做或者延迟一个月。而现在，这个时间又要到了。因此，市场再次担心特朗普总统是否会实施这些关税。他在公开场合暗示，他将这么做。
Although again, he could always postpone it later. But even regardless, but even without these IEPA tariffs. We also know that very clearly on April 2nd, we're going to have the reciprocal tariffs, whereas at that time, there will be enough investigation and paperwork for. The administration to carry out section 301 tariffs where they will place tariffs that are equivalent to whatever other countries are terrafing the US. Now, this could be substantial for some countries.
虽然他可以再次推迟，但即使没有这些IEPA关税，我们也非常清楚地知道，在4月2日，我们将实施对等关税。届时，将会有足够的调查和文件支持政府执行301条款关税，这意味着美国将对那些对其征收关税的国家实施等额关税。这对于一些国家来说可能是影响重大的。
For example, India is very famous for having large tariffs on other countries. If the US were to reciprocate, that means much higher tariffs on India. So we don't know how this is all going to turn out, but it is, I think, something the market is faking about. Now, looking carefully, so again, this very interesting chart from Bloomberg suggesting that if tariffs were to go, the March tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, again, President Trump also says that he wants to live in additional 10% tariffs on China in addition to the 10% he put on February.
例如，印度因对其他国家征收高额关税而闻名。如果美国采取对等措施，那就意味着对印度征收更高的关税。因此，我们不知道这一切会如何发展，但我认为这确实是市场关心的问题。现在，仔细观察这个非常有趣的彭博社图表，它表明，如果对加拿大、墨西哥和中国的关税取消，那么情形会如何。同样，特朗普总统也表示，他希望在2月份对中国征收的10%关税的基础上，再增加10%。
Now, those tariffs did go through, whereas the Canada and Mexico tariffs did not go through in February. If that were to happen, well, the total tariff rate on imports, the effective tariff rate on imports from the US imports is going to go up a lot based on the study from Bloomberg. Now, what would it take for tariffs to not go into effect on Canada and Mexico? It's hard to say really. This could be a negotiating ploy, but from my observation, President Trump is quite serious in welcoming Canada into the union.
现在，那些关税确实已经实施了，而针对加拿大和墨西哥的关税在二月份并没有实施。如果这些关税真的生效，根据彭博社的研究，美国进口产品的总体关税率将会大幅上升。那么，要怎样才能让针对加拿大和墨西哥的关税不生效呢？这很难说。这可能是一个谈判策略，但是根据我的观察，特朗普总统在欢迎加拿大加入联盟这件事上是相当认真的。
This past week, he had a, or was it the past two weeks, he had a dinner before the governor's association. So speaking to all 50 governors in the US at that meeting, he discussed the prospect of Canada becoming the first state and at his cabinet meeting the past week, and this candidate, he also discussed, well, committing Canada into the union. So it does seem like that is something he's serious about, and that could be a motivation to be kind of tariffs.
在过去的一周，或者是过去两周，他在州长协会的会议前参加了一个晚宴。在这个会议上，他向美国所有50位州长发表了讲话，他讨论了加拿大成为第一个“州”的可能性。在他上周的内阁会议上，他还谈到了让加拿大加入（美国）的计划。因此，他似乎对这件事情是认真的，这也可能成为调整关税的一种动机。
But I think something new has also been reviewed the past couple of days, and that is a prospect of creating fortress North America. Now, Secretary Besan has suggested that maybe, you know, Canada could match the tariffs that US put on China, and that seems to be something that may be a part of the issue. And that seems to be something that Mexico's willing to do as well.
我觉得过去几天里还有一个新想法被讨论了，就是建立“北美堡垒”的前景。贝森部长建议，也许加拿大可以对中国实施与美国相同的关税，这似乎成为了问题的一部分。而墨西哥似乎也愿意这么做。
I do think one very interesting proposal that the Mexican government has made is perhaps matching the US on our China tariffs. I think it would be a nice gesture if the Canadians did it also. So in a way, we could have fortress North America from the flood of Chinese imports that's coming out of the most unbalanced economy in the history of modern times. So another way out seems to be if Canada and Mexico would match US tariffs on China.
我认为墨西哥政府提出的一个非常有趣的建议是：或许可以与美国对中国的关税保持一致。我觉得如果加拿大也这样做，这将是一个不错的姿态。这样一来，我们就能在一定程度上形成一个抵御大量中国进口商品的“北美堡垒”，因为中国拥有现代历史上最不平衡的经济体之一。另外一种可行的方法是加拿大和墨西哥也对中国实施与美国一致的关税。
So this way, in effect, creating fortress North America and freezing China out of the North American market, at least unless they have some kind of trade concession. So that is a way out of this dilemma. Now, it looks likely, though, that even if President Trump were to punt on tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he would still be raising tariffs on China another 10%.
通过这种方式，实际上是在建立一个“北美堡垒”，将中国排除在北美市场之外，除非它们能做出某种贸易让步。因此，这是解决这一难题的一种方法。不过，看起来即使特朗普总统不对加拿大和墨西哥加征关税，他仍可能会对中国再提高10%的关税。
Now, Bloomberg looked at this and suggests that if Trump goes through, then the tariffs imposed on China are going to be much higher than the ones that he did in his first trade war. So we're only in the early months of the Trump administration and already the tariffs on China are going to be higher than they were the last time around.
现在，彭博社对此进行了分析，并指出如果特朗普继续推进的话，对中国征收的关税将会比他在第一次贸易战中施加的关税高得多。我们才刚进入特朗普政府的初期几个月，而对中国的关税已经会比上次更高。
And one additional wrinkle is that they now are not allowing the $800 de minimis exception, whereas in the past, if something was shipped from China that was valued at less than $800, they would not be subject tariffs. Now, that has gone away as well. That was a big beneficiary to say small online businesses that were selling out of China.
现在有一个额外的变化：他们不再允许800美元的免税额了。过去，如果从中国发货的商品价值低于800美元，是不需要缴纳关税的。但现在这一政策已经取消。这对在中国销售的小型网络商家曾是一个很大的优惠。
So the massive increase in tariffs, potentially in just a few days with China and maybe Canada and Mexico is definitely weighing on the market and even more importantly, what happens on April 2nd. So this is something that we have to look forward to, even if we get a reprieve on March 4th, you know, in a few weeks, we're definitely going to have a little bit more money.
因此，与中国，以及可能的加拿大和墨西哥的关税在几天内大幅增加，这无疑让市场承受了压力，更重要的是，4月2日会发生什么。所以即使我们在3月4日得到了缓解，这还是我们需要关注的事情。在几周后，我们肯定会有更多的资金流入。
We're definitely going to have big tariffs. Now, none of this just prize anyone. These are things that have been well telegraphed over literally years. So I'm not really sure why anyone should be surprised. And if it were to happen, though, my base case is that the market would not like this didn't like it in 2018.
我们肯定会有高关税。其实，这一点大家都已经知道好多年了，所以我不明白为什么有人会感到惊讶。如果真的发生的话，我的基本预期是市场不会喜欢——就算2018年市场也不喜欢。
And so we could have a bit of a shake off. So again, everything is going to be on March 4th and then April 2nd. But in the meantime, I think we should also be careful that nothing goes in a straight line, either up or down. Okay, so that's all I prepared to today.
我们可以稍微放松一下。所以，所有的活动都会在3月4日和4月2日进行。不过与此同时，我认为我们也应该注意，事情的发展往往不会直线上升或直线下降。好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。
Thanks so much for tuning in. Remember to like and subscribe. And also, I have actually been invited to testify before the House monetary policy task force on Tuesday. So if you guys are interested, welcome to tune into that.
非常感谢你的收看。记得点赞和订阅。此外，我已经被邀请在周二为国会货币政策特别工作组作证。如果你们感兴趣，欢迎收看。
It will be live streamed on YouTube and I will tweet out the link on Tuesday. So I'm very excited to be on Capitol Hill. This will be my first time. Right. Talk to you all next week.
它将在 YouTube 上进行直播，我将在星期二发布链接。非常期待这次到国会山的机会，这将是我第一次去那里。好的，下周再和大家聊。