DOGE *Collapses* D.C. Housing Market | The Facts.
发布时间 2025-02-16 16:36:13 来源
Washington DC home prices collapse because doge is going in firing any worker they can get their hands on. Here on this chart you can see an 8.6% decline in real estate prices in Washington DC since, well, I mean it is a year over year comparison, but if you look at what the Kobisi letter says, they say since doge began its layoffs. Take a look at this folks, as a real estate broker and CEO of a real estate company, what kind of insights can we actually glean from the data to suggest is this because of doge or real estate values collapsing in the DC area because of the Department of Governmental Efficiency going in potentially laying off as many workers as they get their hands on, especially with Donald Trump's resignation offer, which as 75,000 federal workers have abortedly going into the Wall Street Journal accepted.
华盛顿特区的房价暴跌，因为"Doge"（注：在此背景下可能指代某种机构或项目）正尽可能解雇他们能找到的任何员工。在这张图表中，你可以看到华盛顿特区的房地产价格同比下降了8.6%。不过根据Kobisi信函所说，自从Doge开始裁员以来，价格就一直在下降。作为房地产经纪人和一家房地产公司的CEO，我们可以从数据中得出什么见解，这种房价的下跌究竟是因为Doge还是因为政府效率部可能在大幅裁员，尤其是在75,000名联邦员工出于某些原因不再继续工作之后，该提议被《华尔街日报》报道的情况导致的？
Remember that resignation offer allows you to quote resign from your federal job where you typically have federal worker protections that don't allow you to get fired once you're past your probationary period. So instead Donald Trump offered those workers the opportunity to resign, get pay between now through September for doing no work. And meanwhile you can go find a different job or whatever if you'd like. All you have to do is resign, 75,000 accepted and now potentially up to 200,000 federal workers on probation have been fired. It's because while you're on probation, you can still get fired. That potentially includes Ariel, Ariel Kane here.
请记住，辞职提议允许你主动从联邦工作中辞职。在这种工作中，你通常享有联邦员工的保护，一旦通过见习期，就很难被解雇。然而，唐纳德·特朗普提供的这个机会让这些员工可以选择辞职，然后在9月至今的这段时间领取工资，而不用工作。同时，你可以去找其他工作或者做自己喜欢的事情。你只需要辞职就行，已有7.5万人接受了提议，现在可能多达20万正在见习期的联邦员工已被解雇。因为在见习期内，他们仍然可能被解雇。这里面可能包括了艾丽尔·凯恩。
Hey, Elon Musk, your doge minions just fired me and my colleagues at CMMI. We were working on improving maternal health outcomes at a lower cost. So less pregnant women would die each year in this country. I think that's, that's fewer. Anyway, I thought that would fit nicely into your agenda. The admin told the media yesterday that the Health and Human Services cuts were targeted and didn't include scientists or people working on Medicare or Medicaid. Well, I know of scientists who got fired and I work on Medicaid. Just wanted to point out when you get things wrong, like you requested.
嘿，埃隆·马斯克，你的狗狗币追随者们刚刚把我和我的同事从CMMI解雇了。我们一直在努力提高孕产妇的健康结果，同时降低成本。这样每年在这个国家死亡的孕妇就会减少。我觉得应该用“更少”。不管怎样，我以为这会很好地契合你的议程。行政管理部门昨天告诉媒体，卫生与公众服务部的削减预算是有针对性的，并不包括科学家或从事Medicare或Medicaid工作的人。不过，我认识的科学家被解雇了，而我也是在Medicaid上工作。你曾要求指出你的错误，所以我就想指出一下。
Of course, there's a big discussion and commentary in here about, oh, well, you know, what organizations were you supporting or you don't fit into Elon's agenda and blah, blah, blah, blah. All those debates we don't really have to get involved in right now. What we need to talk about is all of these layoffs in DC leading to a real estate collapse. Well, one thing we know with certainty is that when people lose their jobs and they need to relocate because they're priced out of an area, yes, the likelihood is that you're going to have to move. However, we are also coming off of the backs of what I like to refer to as the COVID bubble.
当然，这里有很多关于你支持哪些组织，或者你不符合Elon的议程等等的讨论和评论，这些争论我们现在不必参与。我们需要关注的是，华盛顿特区的大规模裁员如何导致房地产市场崩溃。有一点是肯定的，当人们失去工作并由于负担不起某个地区的生活成本而需要搬迁时，他们很可能就不得不搬家。然而，我们也刚刚走出了我喜欢称之为“COVID泡沫”的时期。
This is where we have a lot of people relocate from places like California to Texas or Florida. We've actually seen a decline in real estate values in a lot of areas of the country as part of a downward trend and parts of the country have actually been on an upward trend since COVID. In fact, I've been calling this the COVID reversal quite frankly, since COVID. If you know and you've been following me for years, you know that when I started my company, my real estate company in 2022, we said we're going to buy in the opposite of the COVID reversal markets. So when we started this company, everybody was still flocking to Austin, Texas and Florida under this impression that, oh, everybody's going there.
很多人从加州搬到德克萨斯或佛罗里达。这一现象我们称之为“新冠逆转”。疫情后，我们发现，这期间国内很多地方的房产价值开始下降，而另一些地方则呈上升趋势。实际上，自从疫情以来，我一直称其为“疫情逆转”。如果你一直关注我，你会知道在我于2022年成立房地产公司时，我们决定选择“疫情逆转”市场的反方向进行投资。当时，很多人仍然一窝蜂地奔向奥斯汀、德克萨斯和佛罗里达，认为那里是理想的迁徙地。
It's easy to build there. But we know in real estate that when you overbuild in an area and you don't have this continued catalyst to bring people into an area, you end up with an oversupply after accelerating a new construction and the prices come down. And that's actually exactly what's happened in many parts of the country. So we preferred to invest in the areas people were quote unquote fleeing from like California. And what's fascinating is it's worth comparing the DC market and what's going on with quote unquote doge is doge leading to this real estate price collapse.
这句话翻译成中文，意思是：
在那个地方建造房屋是很容易的。但在房地产行业，我们知道，如果在一个地区过度开发，而没有持续的动力吸引人们到该地区，就会导致供应过剩，经过一段时间的新建加速后，价格会下降。这实际上已经在全国许多地方发生了。所以我们更倾向于投资人们“逃离”的地区，比如加州。有趣的是，这值得将华盛顿特区市场与所谓的“狗狗币”现象进行比较，看看狗狗币是否会导致房地产价格崩溃。
And what's actually been happening with a broader trend because this is going to give us an understanding of what's actually happening in the real estate market. So watch this. First of all, this is the doge chart where essentially the thesis is, okay, doge took over and prices started declining since doge took over. What you really have to know is when you're looking at a real estate chart for sort of pricing, pricing fluctuates a lot on a month over month basis. And that's because real estate is so diverse.
为了更好地理解房地产市场的现状，我们需要了解更广泛的趋势。请注意，首先，这是一个关于狗狗币的图表。这个图表的基本观点是，狗狗币风靡之后，价格开始下跌。你需要了解的是，当你查看房地产价格图表时，价格每个月都会有很大波动。这是因为房地产市场非常多样化。
Real estate trades on a median basis. That is when we look at these charts, we use a median basis, not an average basis, but that median shifts a lot. And the reason it shifts a lot is because you have a different mix of properties. You have condos, co-ops, townhomes, single families, and they trade all over the spectrum. And when you only have about 400 to 500 homes trading in a single month, you don't actually have that much data. So the midpoint, which is what the median measure is, not the average, right? That midpoint can actually fluctuate a lot based on if you have, you know, 50 more high end home sales. And for some reason you didn't have a lot of condo sales, that median can move up and down a lot.
房地产交易通常以中位数为基础进行分析。当我们查看这些图表时，采用的是中位数，而不是平均数。然而，中位数经常会有较大变化。这是因为市场上的房产类型多种多样，包括公寓、合作公寓、联排别墅和独栋住宅等，它们的交易价格各不相同。当单月交易的房屋数量只有大约400到500套时，数据量实际上不算多。因此，中位数——也就是我们所说的中点——会因市场情况的变化而剧烈波动。例如，如果某个月高端住宅的销售多出50套，而公寓销售较少，那么中位数就可能大幅上下波动。
So I actually think looking at some of the year over year data to look at those month comparisons year over year is a mistake. You need something a lot smoother than that to really understand what a longer term trend is. So that's why I bring up the COVID reversal. Now it's interesting for DC and it's a little harder to piece in there, but let's look at some of the longer term trends to really see what's going on in them. Then we'll know what's going on with real estate. All right, here we go. So on this chart, which is the same one that could be see letter compared to, what we can actually do is rather than use these fluctuations, which don't really tell us much about what's going on in the market, it actually zoom out not just to the three year, but we can zoom out to the five year.
我认为仅仅通过逐年比较数据来分析每个月的变化是错误的。为了真正理解长期趋势，你需要一种更平稳的方法。这也是为什么我提到COVID的反转现象。现在，对于华盛顿特区来说，这个问题比较复杂，但我们应该看看一些长期趋势，才能真正了解其中发生了什么。这样我们才能弄清房地产的状况。好，我们开始吧。在这张图上，与其关注这些波动（它们其实并不能很好地反映市场状况），我们可以将视野拉远，不仅看三年的趋势，还可以看五年的趋势。
And if you look at the five year and sort of draw a little range around it, you can see we've been bouncing around all over the place, the lower end of the range, we have hit once the beginning of 2020, once now, and once in 2023. And the upper end of the range, we've hit a few times. We hit at the end of 2021, a lot of euphoria there, end of 2022. And then recently in the spring of 2024 here, we've hit the upper end of the range. So this range, you can see fluctuates by about $120,000. This is an extreme fluctuation in valuation for real estate, given that median sales price, $560,000. That's like a 20% swing top to bottom. But this is not what we value real estate on these swings. And again, usually it's just a shift of the median.
如果你查看过去五年的数据，并大致画一个范围，你会发现我们的数据一直在上下波动。在这个范围的下限，我们曾在2020年初、现在以及2023年各触及一次。而范围的上限，我们则曾在2021年末（那时相当乐观）、2022年末及最近的2024年春季触及几次。这个范围波动大约为12万美元。考虑到房产的中位数销售价格为56万美元，这样的波动幅度达到20%。但我们并不是根据这些波动来评估房产价值的，通常这里只是中位数的变化。
It's not actually a representation of what's going on with real estate values to really understand what's going on with real estate value, have to zoom out more. And so for DC, I would argue that the DC market has actually been relatively flat since COVID. It hasn't significantly benefited from people moving there because of some kind of COVID boom. And it hasn't benefited from a COVID reversal that is people moving to the higher cost of living areas like California. Now if I type in something like Tampa, Florida, which was a recipient of the COVID boom, even Kathy would end up moving there. We throw in Tampa, Florida recipient of the COVID boom.
这其实并不能真正反映房地产价值的变化情况。要真正了解房地产价值的动态，需要从更宏观的角度来观察。因此，对于华盛顿特区市场，我认为自新冠疫情以来，它实际上相对平稳。特区市场并没有因为某种疫情带来的迁移潮而显著受益，也没有因为疫情反转而从高生活成本的地区（如加州）迁移过来的人群而受益。如果我们查找像佛罗里达州坦帕这样的地方，它在疫情期间确实吸引了很多人迁入。就连凯西那样的人也会搬到那里。我们把坦帕，佛罗里达作为疫情迁入潮的受益者来看待。
You could actually see how that COVID boom moved housing valuations in Tampa from a median of about 263 to a consistent pattern of growth to where you actually got from 263 to like the mid fours there for a while up to 500,000 in June of 2024. And really only since this peak in the June of 2024, have you really started seeing this slow down in prices again in Tampa? So Tampa's actually been this steady grower and beneficiary of the COVID boom, if you will. Let's try Austin, Texas, which is a market that I believe slowed down a little sooner than Tampa. Yeah, look at this much sooner actually than Tampa. Austin is this blue line here.
您可以看到，当初疫情带来的增长如何将坦帕的房价从大约26.3万美元推高到一个持续增长的趋势，在一段时间内从26.3万美元升到了40多万美元，并在2024年6月达到了50万美元。而实际上，也就是从2024年6月的这个高峰开始，您才真正看到坦帕房价再次开始放缓的趋势。因此，可以说坦帕一直是疫情带来的增长受益者之一。现在我们来看看德克萨斯州的奥斯汀，这个市场似乎比坦帕更早开始放缓。是的，实际上比坦帕早得多。图中奥斯汀的趋势以蓝线表示。
You can see blue. The blue line actually went from a median of 383 peeped out over here in May of 2022. And it actually declined. Texas declined from their median of 666,000. Oh, the devil's number. Oh Diablo, 383 to 666 straight down now to four. Sorry to let's get that correct here. 666 straight down to about five, 16, five, 16 from peak represents a decline of about 23%. So Austin's been in this sort of reversal for much, much longer in terms of declines. And you can see DC is mostly flat on this period.
你可以看到蓝色。实际上，蓝线在2022年5月的中位数是383，从这里稍微探出头之后就开始下降。德克萨斯州的中位数从666,000下降了。哦，魔鬼的数字。哦，Diablo，从383到666，然后直接下降到差不多516。让我把这个说正确，从666一直下降到大约516，这意味着大约23%的降幅。因此，奥斯汀的这种逆转趋势在下降方面已经持续更久。而你可以看到，在这个时期，华盛顿特区基本持平。
Now what's an area that's basically gone straight up with no sign of a slowdown yet? Well, it's going to be in an area where Hausack is heavily invested. San Diego, we're heavily invested in San Diego. But you can really look at various different markets as well. You could look at Ventura County as well. And when you look at California, what's so unique about California is that California, usually people here, Cali, and they're like, oh my gosh, fire risk and unaffordability or political risk or whatever. But see, people forget that the reason California real estate is so valuable.
现在，有哪个地区基本上是在直线上升，而且还没有放缓的迹象呢？嗯，那将是Hausack大量投资的地区。圣地亚哥，我们在圣地亚哥投入了大量资金。但你也可以看看其他不同的市场。你可以看看文图拉县。当你看加利福尼亚时，加利福尼亚有什么独特之处呢？通常人们一听到加州，反应往往是：“哦，天哪，火灾风险、负担不起的房价或者政治风险等等。”但是，大家往往忘记了一个事实，那就是加州房地产如此有价值的原因。
And quite frankly, the fires reduce supply, right? That means existing home values probably go up even more. This is why California is outperforming all of these markets. But then again, you know, I've been doing real estate now for 15, 16 years. This is my bread and butter. This is what I'm going to. You can look at my YouTube channel from eight years ago. All we do is just real say, real, real, real, real, real, real, real. We knew that this was likely to happen. And that's why we deployed over what 98% of our capital in California markets. We knew that this was likely to happen because of California politics.
坦率地说，火灾减少了供给，对吧？这意味着现有房屋的价值可能会进一步上升。这就是为什么加州在所有这些市场中表现优异的原因。但是你知道，我已经从事房地产行业有15、16年了。这是我的谋生之道，也是我的专长。你可以看看我八年前的YouTube频道。我们做的就是房地产，真真正正的房地产。我们知道这种情况可能会发生，这就是为什么我们将超过98%的资金投入到加州市场。我们知道这种情况可能会发生，是因为加州的政治因素。
And this blows people's mind. But when I had a seminar just this summer, I had a seminar in Vegas. We invited Kathy Wood. She was there. A lot of other folks were there. It was quite enjoyable to have a wonderful event. And everybody got to share their opinions and experiences on the market. But one question that came up during our real estate segment was Kevin. Why is it that you would want to buy in California in California, you have to deal with all the politicians.
这令人大开眼界。今年夏天我在拉斯维加斯举办了一场研讨会，我们邀请了凯西·伍德，她也参加了，还有很多其他人。能够举办这样一个精彩的活动非常令人愉快，大家在会上分享了他们对市场的看法和经验。但在我们的房地产讨论环节中，有人提了一个问题，问我说：“凯文，为什么你会想在加州买房？在加州，你必须应对那么多的政客。”
And my response was the benefit of all of the politicians and the politics of California real estate is that they're so slow growth and they're so, they make it so hard to build. They didn't actually realize that the politics themselves in California are actually a tool for keeping property values higher. See, the more the extreme politics of California restrict building and make it hard to build in California, the higher your property values go because jobs are in California. California has the Southern California coastline real estate, some of the best climate in the world.
我的回答是，加州的政治家和房地产的政治局势的一个好处就是他们的发展速度非常缓慢，而且让建房变得极其困难。他们实际上没有意识到，加州的政治本身其实是一种维持房产价值更高的工具。看，加州的极端政治越是限制建筑活动，越是让建房变得困难，你的房产价值就越来越高，因为加州有大量的就业机会。加州还有南加州的海岸线和世界上最好的气候条件之一。
So you got jobs, you got climate. Yeah, you've got some other issues, but ironically the same politics that people hate on are the reason why home values actually just keep going up in Southern California. The liberal policies themselves make it harder to add supply and they give you a hedge. So think about this, you buy a home in Texas and then all of a sudden everybody else is building homes because there's no delay to building homes that government's not in your way. The value of your home actually goes down because there are plenty of available substitutes. You don't actually have that in California. Kind of fascinating.
所以，你有工作，有气候。是的，你还有一些其他问题，但讽刺的是，人们讨厌的那些政治因素实际上是南加州房价不断上涨的原因。自由派的政策本身让增加房屋供应变得更加困难，同时为你提供了一种保值措施。想一下这个情况：你在德州买了房，然后突然间其他人也开始建房，因为政府没有在这方面制造拖延，房屋建设没有障碍。因为有很多替代选择，你的房屋价值实际上会下降。在加州你就不会遇到这种情况。这还挺有意思的。
So it's something to pay attention to when you're thinking about investing in real estate. First thing that you have to know is we really have to zoom out on the trends. You have to look at a longer term and ideally you want to get a moving average of the trend here. So Redfin does not allow us to do that here, but if you actually type in Redfin data center, you'll be able to. So go Redfin data center. And if you grab their housing market data here, you'll be able to get 12 and four week moving averages.
所以，当你考虑投资房地产时，这是需要注意的事情。首先，你需要了解的是，我们确实需要从更长远的趋势来看问题。你应该关注长期趋势，理想情况下，你要获取该趋势的移动平均线。不过，Redfin本身无法直接实现这一点，但如果你搜索Redfin数据中心，你就能够找到相关信息。所以，访问Redfin数据中心，如果在那里获取他们的房地产市场数据，你就能获得12周和4周的移动平均数据。
And this is going to make it a lot easier to understand. Is that DC market truly crashing or is this just sort of like a three year flat lining? So we're going to look at DC and we're going to go to median sales price right here. And here you can see sort of a little bit of a better POV on pricing. So right now, median sales pricing in the DC area 2025 is the green line. This right here is your year over year changes.
这将使理解变得更加容易。华盛顿特区的市场是真正崩溃了，还是只是类似于三年的停滞不前？所以我们要来看一下华盛顿特区的情况，并查看这里的中位数销售价格。你可以在这里看到对价格的有点改善的视角。现在，华盛顿特区地区2025年的中位数销售价格是绿色线。这就是你的年同比变化。
So look right here at the green line. You'll actually notice that when you look at the year over year numbers here on a trend of four weeks, home values in DC aren't crashing. They're actually up 2% year over year. The same website, Redfin providing you two different sets of data. Why? Well, it's because look, you had your high sales close in November and your low sales are now closing in December, January. These month over month fluctuations are impossible to understand a trend line on.
所以请看这里的绿色线。当你查看按四周趋势计算的年同比数据时，你会发现华盛顿特区的房价并没有崩溃。实际上，它们同比上涨了2%。同一个网站，Redfin，却提供了两组不同的数据。为什么会这样呢？那是因为你在十一月时有高额的销售，而现在的低额销售则是在十二月和一月完成的。月度波动让人无法理解这样的趋势线。
Don't do this in real estate. This is real estate is not the stock market. It moves a lot slower. You have to use an average. Go to the 12 week. There you go. On the 12 week moving average, home prices are 3% higher. They're higher than any of these years prior. Now, does that mean that, you know, the layoffs leading to potential sales are wrong? No, not necessarily.
在房地产中不要这样做。房地产和股票市场不同，它的变化要慢得多。你需要使用平均值。去看12周的数据。看看这个，在12周移动平均线上，房价上涨了3%。它们比以往任何年份都高。那么，这是否意味着因为裁员而导致的潜在销售估计是错误的呢？不一定。
I mean, here unemployment claims in Washington, DC, you could see they're rising, but they're nowhere near the unemployment claims that we saw in 2022 or during COVID. Those are actually cut off probably because if you showed this whole chart, it would be so high that this would be looking like a joke. This would look like a little fluctuation. Who cares? So this idea that, oh, layoffs are being filed in February or 2025 and therefore home prices are collapsing in DC.
我的意思是，在华盛顿特区，失业申请数量确实在上升，但远远没有达到我们在2022年或疫情期间看到的水平。事实上，这些数据是被截断的，因为如果展示整个图表，那些数据会高得让现在的情况看起来像个玩笑，只是个小波动，根本不值得关注。所以，这种说法——即在2025年2月，因为裁员而导致华盛顿特区房价暴跌——并不成立。
Look, that's a popular thing to say. You could get a lot of likes and engagement and tweets and, you know, reshares or whatever going, yep, everything's going to crap. Look at that. Real estate is crashing. Thanks to Elon Musk in Washington, DC. Look, I've got no real estate in DC. I don't really care. It doesn't matter. I'm just looking at the data. You can't look at this month over month fluctuation because as soon as you turn on the moving average, using the same median sales price stat, you actually do not see the data that you're getting on those monthly fluctuations. So sorry, Koopisi. Maybe y'all just don't know real estate or you're looking for some kind of engagement farming, but this is fully false. The facts don't support what you're saying.
你看，这是一种很流行的说法。你可能会因此获得很多点赞、互动、转发和分享，那种“对，一切都在变得糟糕”的态度，比如房地产崩盘了，全都是因为埃隆·马斯克在华盛顿特区的原因。但看，我在华盛顿特区没有房地产，所以我不在乎。这无关紧要。我只是查看数据而已。你不能只看每个月的数据波动，因为一旦你使用移动平均线来观察，用相同的中位销售价格统计，你实际上就看不到那些月度波动的数据了。所以，抱歉，也许你们并不了解房地产，或者你们只是想通过引发互动来增加热度，但你们说的完全错误。事实不支持你们的说法。
Now, in fairness, we do have active listings at the same place, but price drops are higher. Not by much. They're higher than the 2024 year, right? So year over year, they're higher, but you only have 0.4% more price drops on the 12 week. Now, if you go to four week, this might be a little bit more extreme. Uh, yep, there you go. You're 0.9% over 2023, uh, sorry, 0.9% over 2024 and a little bit over 2023 here. So you're getting a little bit of an increase in price drops here, but you generally do with the beginning of the year. I'm not saying that prices aren't going to go down. Uh, you know, I'm not trying to take away that, that hope from folks. Just saying when we look at the data, it's too early to say, uh, that, you know, there's any actual meaningful impact, uh, that does just having on the real estate market.
现在，公平地说，我们确实在相同地方有活跃的房源，但价格下跌的幅度更大。虽然不算多，但与2024年相比，确实更高。因此，与去年相比，价格下跌幅度有所增加，但在12周的统计中，仅增加了0.4%。如果看4周的数据，可能会更为明显。是的，看到了吧，2024年价格下跌的幅度比2023年高0.9%，并且比2023年略高一点。所以价格下跌有小幅增加，但通常年初都会这样。我并不是说价格不会下降，我也不是要打击大家的希望。只是根据数据来看，判断房地产市场是否受到显著影响还为时过早。
Uh, now if you look at months of supply, even months of supply is stable, which this, this is nice. This is a good tool to look at because it actually accounts for how many buyers you have in an active market. Obviously there are still people buying. Uh, and, uh, the number of homes sold so far is actually still exceeding 23 and 24, the well below what you saw in 2022. Uh, and then new listings, new listings are barely above or out of bound of what you saw in 24 and three. This is on the four week moving average. You know, you go to the 12 week, it, it, it's almost indistinguishable from the prior years in terms of how many new homes you're seeing come on the market or how many homes are selling.
嗯，如果你看看供应月份，即使供应月份也是稳定的，这一点很好。这是一个不错的工具，因为它能够实际反映出在一个活跃市场中有多少买家。显然，现在仍然有人在购买。而目前为止售出的房屋数量实际上仍然超过2023和2024年，但远低于2022年。然后是新的挂牌房源，新的挂牌房源仅略高于或超过了2023和2024年。这是基于四周移动平均值。如果你看12周的移动平均值，无论是新增上市房屋数量还是正在出售的房屋数量，几乎和前几年没有区别。
Now, look, our interest rates still really high. Yes. Is it unaffordable? Yes. Would it make sense that some people who get laid off have to end up selling their homes and moving? Yes. But that could just unlock inventory for other people who are moving in to buy. So it's too soon to tell the best way, if you really want to know what's going on with pricing is get on the ground, fly to the area, go to open houses, talk to real estate, real estate owners, understand what's happening on the ground. That is the only way you can know sitting behind a computer chair, you know, some kind of desk. I guess you're sitting on a computer chair behind a desk. But anyway, it's not the way to understand the real estate market.
现在，看看，我们的利率仍然非常高。 是的。这是否让人难以负担？ 是的。有人被解雇后不得不卖掉房子搬走，这合理吗？是的。但这可能为迁入买房的其他人解锁库存。因此，现在要判断最佳的方法还为时过早。如果你真的想了解房价的情况，就必须亲自到现场。飞去那个地区，参加开放参观日，与房地产经纪人、房主交谈，了解实际情况。这是获取信息的唯一方法，而不是坐在电脑椅子上，隔着办公桌了解。这种方式无法真正理解房地产市场。
So when we at House HAC were able to time the peak of the Austin real estate market, it was because we were on the ground, not because we're looking at, you know, month over month, changes in median sales prices. It's every single month you could have a new headline. Oh my gosh, prices are skyrocketing. Oh my gosh, prices are collapsing. There's the wrong thing to do. There's bad data, there's bad analysis. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this.
所以当我们在HAC公司能够准确判断出奥斯汀房地产市场的高峰期时，是因为我们亲临市场，而不是依赖那些每月房价中位数的变化数据。每个月都会有新头条，比如“哦天哪，房价飙升”或“哦天哪，房价暴跌”。这种做法不对，这些都是不准确的数据和分析。为什么不宣传这些信息呢？我觉得其他人都不知道这些。
We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you, people look up to you. Kevin Paffrath there, financial analyst, and YouTube. Meet Kevin, always great to get your take.
我们会尝试做一点广告，看看效果如何。恭喜你，伙计。你做了很多事情。大家都很喜欢你，也都很敬佩你。Kevin Paffrath，这位金融分析师和 YouTube 上的「Meet Kevin」，很高兴能听到你的观点。