EV Truck Startup Nikola Runs Out of Juice | E2087
发布时间 2025-02-20 00:22:02 来源
I knew Milton was a fraud. You know, I got a pretty good eye for this. There are people who are delusional and I would say not thoughtful. And then there are people who are delusional and competent. And I love me the latter, but incompetent delusional people, I mean, they just incinerate money, competent delusional people change the world. And they might incinerate some money. But you know, if you think, hey, I'm going to put a computer on everybody's desk, can your bulk aids and your company, you make good software and you're aggressive and you understand distribution and whatever, you know, like you might just make it happen. And that's what we do all day long as venture capital. We're looking for those delusional. Another word would be ambitious, competent people.
我知道米尔顿是个骗子。你知道，我对这些事情有很好的判断力。有些人妄想而且不够理智，而有些人则妄想但是很有能力。我喜欢后者，因为那些没有能力又妄想的人，他们简直就是在烧钱。但妄想且有能力的人改变了世界。他们也可能烧掉一些钱。但如果你认为，嘿，我要让每个人的桌面上都有一台电脑，那如果你是比尔·盖茨，且你的公司软件做得好，很有进取心，懂得分销等等，你可能就会成功。而我们作为风险投资人，每天都在寻找这种人。换句话说，就是那些有野心且有能力的人。
This weekend start-ups is brought to you by gusto. Gusto is easy online payroll benefits and HR built for modern small businesses. And three months free when you run your first payroll, gusto.com slash twist, lemon.io. It access to lemon hire a platform with more than 80,000 pre-vetted engineers that you can interview within 48 hours. Get $2,000 off your first hire at lemon.io slash hire today. And Atlassian from MVP to IPO Atlassian for startups provides your team the right tools to plan, track and collaborate on work. Head to Atlassian.com slash software slash startups to see if you qualify for 53 seats for 12 months.
这周末创业公司赞助商有Gusto。Gusto为现代小型企业提供简便的在线薪资福利和人力资源服务。首次运行薪资时可享受三个月免费试用，访问gusto.com/twist。Lemon.io是一个提供超过80,000名经过审核的工程师的平台，你可以在48小时内进行面试。首次招聘可在lemon.io/hire获得$2,000的折扣。Atlassian从最小可行产品到首次公开募股，为初创公司提供团队所需的工具，以帮助计划、跟踪和协作工作。访问Atlassian.com/software/startups，查看你是否符合12个月内免费使用53个席位的资格。
All right, everybody. Welcome back to this weekend startups. We go live three days a week, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and this week we get Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday with me, the L director, the director, Lon Harris. You can follow him on Twitter, x, x.com slash L O and S. And we've got a full news docket today. So let's just rip through it and you can follow the docket at this week in startups.com slash docket. We also have a bunch of links on that docket. And when you go to the docket, you'll see links to everybody's socials, but we're also experimenting with some communities. We have a subreddit which we're cleaning up and getting rid of the spam and we have a LinkedIn group for startup founders. We have a Twitter X community.
好的，大家好。欢迎回到本周的创业动态。本节目每周直播三次，通常是星期一、星期三和星期五，而本周是星期二、星期三和星期五。我是Lon Harris，节目总监。你可以在Twitter上关注他，访问x.com/LON。今天我们有满满的新闻议程，所以我们就快速浏览一下。你也可以在thisweekinstartups.com/docket查看议程，那里还有很多链接。当你访问这个页面时，会看到所有人的社交媒体链接。我们还在尝试一些社区扩展，例如，我们正在清理我们的subreddit以去除垃圾信息，并建立了一个面向初创公司创始人的LinkedIn群组，以及一个Twitter X社区。
And yeah, we've got a Slack community. We're just going to figure out where you all like to hang out. And we'll start out by asking you questions about your startup. Hopefully that gets everybody's conversations going. And each community has to have a purpose and each podcast has a purpose. The purpose of this podcast is to talk about startups, technology, innovation and founders.
是的，我们有一个 Slack 社区。我们会去了解你们喜欢在哪里活动。我们会先从询问你们关于创业的情况开始，希望这能激发大家的讨论。每个社区都需要有一个目标，每个播客也一样。这个播客的目标是讨论创业、技术、创新和创始人。
Once in a while, we drift. We drift over to politics as it relates to technology. We drift into finance and culture as it relates to entrepreneurship. But let's get started. So, yeah, first item we got to talk about you. We're posting about this yesterday on social media. There is a new J trade. Oh, actually has come in Howard Hughes Holdings. Now, Acman is comparing this project to Warren Buffett's famous transformation of Berkshire Hathaway from a failing textile manufacturer into a diversified holding company. The plan is for Acman's Pershing to acquire 10 million newly shared issues of HHH at $90 a share. Then they're going to take controlling interest in various public and private companies that appeal to Pershing. That Pershing would already have been interested in using their sort of criterion for companies and investments.
偶尔，我们会偏离原本的话题，转向与技术相关的政治，或与创业相关的金融和文化。但让我们开始吧。首先，我们必须谈谈你。昨天我们在社交媒体上发布了一个新消息。Howard Hughes Holdings出现了一项新的J交易。Ackman将这个项目与沃伦·巴菲特著名的伯克希尔哈撒韦转型相比，伯克希尔从一家失败的纺织制造商转变为多元化的控股公司。计划是Ackman的Pershing基金以每股90美元的价格收购HHH的新发行股份1000万股。然后，他们将对感兴趣的各种公共和私人公司进行控股，这些公司和投资符合Pershing的一贯标准。
HHH, unlike the failing textile company that Warren Buffett was sort of transforming, they're going to keep doing what they do. They are developing smart cities and planned communities like the Woodlands near Houston, Summerlin outside Las Vegas. So that company is going to continue operating independently while also helping to fund and drive this new holding company. So I've been following Bill Acman for a while. He's very smart. He makes great trades. He had a hilarious fight over Herbalife with the other famous hedge fund corporate radar or whatever they call them, activist investor, I guess. What's his name? God, Carl Eichmann.
HHH公司与沃伦·巴菲特曾试图转型的失败纺织公司不同，他们将继续做他们擅长的事情。该公司正在开发智慧城市和计划社区，比如休斯顿附近的伍德兰兹和拉斯维加斯外的萨默林。因此，这家公司将继续独立运营，同时也为这个新的控股公司提供资金和推动力。我关注比尔·阿克曼已经有一段时间了，他非常聪明，交易做得很成功。他和另一位著名的对冲基金公司内斗者，或者说叫做激进投资者，展开了一场关于康宝莱的有趣争斗。他叫什么来着？对了，是卡尔·伊坎。
You know, when I saw him do that Herbalife thing, I was like, yeah, I know people in Herbalife. It's an MLM, a multi-level marketing. Some might say scheme, some might say system. I don't get sued here. Everybody's got a little hair trigger line on the suing. But I always thought like every time I met an Herbalife person that the what I got was this person is entrepreneurial. They want to do great things in the world and Herbalife got their hooks into them.
你知道吗，当我看到他做那个Herbalife的事情时，我心想，是啊，我认识一些在Herbalife的人。这是一个多层次营销（MLM），有人可能会说是骗局，也有人可能会说是体系。我可不想在这里被起诉。现在大家对起诉可是很敏感的。不过每次我遇到Herbalife的人，我都有这样的想法：这个人很有创业精神，他们想在世界上做出一番伟大的事情，而Herbalife则吸引了他们。
And now they're annoying their families by trying to sell them supplements. I felt like it was predatory. I feel like a lot of these MLMs feel predatory to me. That's when Bill Ackman came on my radar because they used to do CNBC a whole bunch. And I was like, huh, this guy's smart. Then the next piece of the puzzle was he bought a bunch of Uber just two or three weeks ago. He amassed like a $3 billion position. And I thought his analysis was incredibly thoughtful. So when I saw this one, I just snapped. I was like, you know, I feel my J trading. I think I'm up. I put in 1.6 million. And I think it said 3.4 million in like two years. I mean, I like level results. I mean, well, interesting. You say that the Pelosi tracker put Pelosi versus J. Cal. You can look it up on Twitter.
现在他们通过尝试向家人推销保健品来惹人烦。我觉得这有点像在捕食。我感到很多传销（MLM）给我的感觉都是这样。这时，比尔·阿克曼引起了我的注意，因为过去他经常上CNBC。我当时心想，这家伙挺聪明的。接下来的事情是，他在两三周前买入了一大笔Uber股份，达到了约30亿美元的头寸。我认为他的分析非常深思熟虑。所以当我看到这件事时，我忍不住心动了。我感觉自己的投资表现不错。我最初投入了160万美元，现在大约两年后变成了340万美元。这样的结果让我很满意。哦，对了，挺有趣的是，你提到过有个佩洛西股票跟踪器，上面可以看到佩洛西和J Cal的对比，具体可以在推特上查到。
Oh, wow. And or versus Jason. I was beating Pelosi for like six months. Which I just thought, well, wait a second, if I'm beating Pelosi, I need to stop trading because people are going to start thinking I have Pelosi level information. I'm looking at this graph right now. Your 2023 performance, she did. She was up 45%. You were up 47.4%.
哦，哇。和还是对抗杰森。我居然打败了佩洛西，长达六个月。我心想，等等，如果我打败了佩洛西，那我需要停止交易，因为人们可能会开始认为我掌握了与佩洛西同等的信息。我现在正在看这张图表。你在2023年的表现，她的收益是45%，而你的收益是47.4%。
Yeah, you don't want to be beating Pelosi. That means the SEC is going to start investigating you. Yeah.
是的，你不想打败佩洛西。这意味着美国证券交易委员会可能会开始调查你。嗯。
That's the string of investigation for sure. Here's the extent of my insider information. What I see on Twitter, which is all public. So I see Akman make this trade. And I think to myself, I know the planned communities. I know Akman. And I know from first principles, oh my God, that's hilarious. Pelosi versus God kindness. That's this is like when you're getting too much heat. You remember in Goodfellas?
这确实是调查的线索。这是我掌握的内幕信息的全部，我只看到了Twitter上的一些内容，都是公开的。我看到Ackman进行了一笔交易，我心想，我了解这些计划社区，我了解Ackman。基于最基本的原则，我觉得，天哪，太搞笑了。这就像佩洛西对上了上帝的仁慈。就像电影《好家伙》中，当你面临太多麻烦时的情景一样。
Yeah. After the big heist at the airport.
好的。翻译成中文是：“是啊，在机场发生的大抢劫之后。”
LaGuardia.
拉瓜迪亚。
LaGuardia is a heist.
“拉瓜迪亚是一个骗局。”
Yeah. LaGuardia is a heist. What happens? Everybody shows up at the bar. Cadillacs for clothes. All right. You can't get anywhere. You can't believe this. You're stupid. Excuse me. Excuse me. That's mine. Take it off. Take it off. Take it off. Take it off. Take it off. Did I tell you not to get anything? Did I tell you not to attract attention? Two days one day. What the **** can you get? Cadillon gets a $20,000 make. Bring it back. I'll bring it back. I don't care what you do to bring it where you gotta be. You'll get an ad and get on me. Get the stage. Get the ad.
好的。LaGuardia是一场抢劫。发生了什么？大家都跑去酒吧。穿着豪车般的衣服。好吧。你没法到任何地方。你无法相信这事。你真傻。劳驾。抱歉。那是我的。脱掉它。脱掉它。脱掉它。脱掉它。脱掉它。我有没有告诉过你不要买任何东西？我有没有告诉过你不要惹人注意？两天一天。你到底能得到什么？Cadillon得到了一个价值两万美元的东西。把它带回来。我会带回来的。不管你怎么做，把它带到你该去的地方。你会得到广告，然后来找我。上台。上广告。
One of the things I noticed when I moved to Austin. Now, you know, Lon. I lived 20 years Brooklyn. 10 years Manhattan. 10 years LA. Just over 10 years split between San Francisco and a really Tony town called Hillsborough in kind of the Bel Air of the peninsula. And what I found was in New York, people found every nook and cranny to find an abode. In LA, I watched Venice go from like, you don't want to live in Venice to Venice is the most expensive neighborhood, right? And Silver Lake downtown LA. You don't want to live in these places. Now they're like amongst the more expensive areas. But what I did notice from living in essentially one, two, three, arguably five cities. If you can consider Brooklyn Manhattan different and you consider San Francisco and Hillsborough different, which I do. I've lived in five, I lived in five cities and I never saw anybody build enough housing in those cities. In fact, I saw an enthusiasm. And in fact, in the Bay area, I saw my rich friends buy the lots next to either side of their houses. Pretty well documented. People just do this as a, you know, if you're sitting on a billion dollars, you might, you know, it's a five million dollar house comes up next to you buy it and you sit on it and you know, maybe it's a guest house where you just don't want somebody to build a new house there. So when I moved to Austin, Texas, and I saw what was going on in Houston, I spent a little time there. My Lord, Billy, you know, whatever the hell you want. It does screw up the landscape a bit when you see like somebody's got a bar with a performance space next to a bakery next to a storage locker next to a strip mall. It's a bit random. What?
当我搬到奥斯汀时，我注意到一些事情。你知道的，Lon，我在布鲁克林住了20年，在曼哈顿住了10年，在洛杉矶住了10年，之后在旧金山和一个叫希尔斯堡的非常高级的小镇之间度过了10多年。希尔斯堡就像半岛的贝尔艾尔。在纽约，我发现人们会充分利用任何角落和缝隙来找住所。在洛杉矶，我看到威尼斯海滩经历了从没人愿意住到变成最昂贵社区的转变。同样的，在市中心的银湖区，以前人们不想住，现在却成了昂贵的地区。但在我住过的这五个城市，确实没有人建造足够的住房。实际上，我看到了一种奇怪的热情。在旧金山湾区，我看到我那些富有的朋友会买下他们房子两边的空地，这种情况很常见。对于坐拥数十亿美元的人来说，如果隔壁有个价值500万美元的房子挂牌出售，他们可能会买下来，然后就那么闲置着，或者把它当作客房，仅仅是不想让别人在那里建新房。
所以当我搬到德克萨斯州的奥斯汀，看到休斯顿的所作所为时，我感叹道：天啊，Billy，你想干什么就干什么。这确实让城市景观显得有些杂乱无章，因为你会看到一个酒吧挨着烘焙店，再挨着个存储仓库，旁边又是个条形购物中心，有点随机混乱感。
You both can afford homes. Housing prices went down two years in a row. I watched all these caletera, bell terror, all these terrors being built all over Austin. I said to myself, that's got to be a great business, like to be in the building a new city business and watching everybody leave the Bay area to go to Miami where they build a lot, Vegas where they build a lot. And Texas where they build a lot, I just realized, man, so much pent up demand that when you can buy a home for one fifth of the price as the Bay area is average home, people are going to move. It's supposed to be an easy J trade.
你们俩都能买得起房子。房价已经连续两年下降。我看到奥斯汀各地建造了许多新房，我心想，这一定是个好生意，就像在创建新城市和观察大家纷纷离开湾区去迈阿密、拉斯维加斯和德克萨斯这些建房多的地方一样，但我意识到的确有很大的潜在需求。当你能以湾区平均房价的五分之一买到房子时，人们肯定会搬家。这应该是一个简单的决定。
I've been looking for a play here. It feels like it's pre vetted since Ackman's in it. And then on top of that, Ackman wants to be super involved. So he's got like a bigger vision here. Yeah, he's going to be the CEO of this new holding company, Ackman personally. So that's a big deal.
我一直在寻找这里的投资机会。因为Ackman参与其中，所以感觉这个项目已经经过了初步审核。除此之外，Ackman还希望深度参与，这说明他对这个项目有更大的愿景。是的，Ackman将亲自担任这家新控股公司的CEO，这可是件大事。
All right, you didn't start your company to run payroll. Did you? Of course not. We all know that gusto is here to help. Gusto is going to help you run your payroll and handle all your benefits on boarding and HR all in one place. The market agrees 300,000 businesses trust gusto today and you can too. As your startup skills gusto is going to grow with you. You got state and federal taxes handled for your staff around the country. Gusto does all that. And hey, maybe it's finally time for you to offer a 401k plan for your team, right? Gusto's got you on that and you might need to get your compliance sorted, right? Well, three out of four employers say gusto helps them be government compliant and even better gusto is simple, easy to use software. So you can focus on what matters building your startup.
好的，你创办公司并不是为了处理工资问题，对吧？当然不是。我们都知道Gusto可以提供帮助。Gusto可以帮你进行工资发放，处理员工福利、入职和人力资源等事务，并且都集中在一个平台上。市场对此非常认可，如今已有30万家企业信任Gusto，你也可以选择信赖它。随着你的创业公司不断成长，Gusto也会与你共同进步。你可以安心处理全国员工的州和联邦税务，Gusto会处理这一切。嘿，或许现在是时候为你的团队提供401k退休计划了，对吧？Gusto也能帮你搞定。而且，你可能还需要解决合规问题，对吧？好消息是，四分之三的雇主表示Gusto帮助他们符合政府要求。更妙的是，Gusto软件简单易用，这样你就可以专注于重要的事情——打造你的创业公司。
So here's your quick call to action. Do you want all gusto has to offer with no hidden fees? Well, how about a discount? Try gusto and get three months free gusto.com slash twist. That's G U S T O dot com slash twist. And that means attention. So there's money. There's a lot of that in the world, but people generally don't like to lose money. So when they place a bet, great. But when you see somebody give their attention to something and they have a bigger strategy, that means he sees an opportunity there that's bigger than the average investment he makes. Right. Same thing with Uber. He saw a bigger opportunity there because he's publicly talking about it. It's a three billion. You see people move from, you know, placing a J trade to placing a major J trade or not selling. That's when you know something's up. We'll see. And we'll not cover this company.
这是你快速行动的提示。你希望获得Gusto提供的所有服务且没有隐藏费用吗？那么，如何获得折扣？尝试使用Gusto，并且在gusto.com/twist可以获得三个月的免费使用。网站是G U S T O 点 com 斜杠 twist。这意味着关注。虽然这个世界上有很多钱，但一般人不喜欢失去钱。所以当他们下注时，挺好。但是当你看到有人专注于某件事情，并且他有一个更大的策略时，这意味着他看到的机会比他通常的投资要大。就像Uber一样，因为他公开谈论这个，它是一个三十亿的投资。你会看到人们从进行小额交易到参与重大交易，或者不卖出，这就是你知道有情况发生的时候。我们拭目以待，并且不会报道这家公司。
Yeah, that's an interesting concept. And I liked how he turned the launch and the pitch into this kind of narrative, like calling back the Berkshire Hathaway, reminding people of what War above it did. He turned his pitch into a story, which I think gives it a lot of appeal. And to turn it into a story, there must be a story there. And another word for a story is a thesis. So if you think about like a story in a screenplay, it's got three acts, right? And you have these challenges and then you have this resolution. Yeah. You know more about this than I do. But there is something there to the story arc in a three act play slash film to an investment thesis, right? You have to overcome some things in that second act. There's a mission you go on and then hopefully gets resolved in the first act. They think things get set up. Is that generally the case of a. I think what's especially interesting here is all all scripts, they have to have a thing called the pregnant moment, which is why does this story happen right now instead of a month ago next year? Like why is this the decision the character makes in this moment? So if you think about a movie about a guy, he's desperate for money, you open the movie with the eviction notice on his door like, okay, it's happening right now because he's going to lose his house, you know? And I feel like that also very much applies for an investment thesis.
这是一个很有趣的概念。我喜欢他如何把发布会和推介会变成一种叙事方式，比如提到伯克希尔哈撒韦，提醒人们沃伦·巴菲特曾经做过的事情。他把自己的推介会变成了一个故事，我觉得这让它具备了很大的吸引力。要把它变成一个故事，里面就必须有故事情节。而故事的另一种说法就是论点。如果你想像剧本中的故事，它通常有三个幕，对吧？你会遇到挑战，然后解决这些问题。你对这方面比我了解得多。但在三幕剧或电影的故事结构与投资论点之间确实有一些共同点。在第二幕中，你必须克服一些事情，会有一个任务需要执行，然后希望在第三幕获得解决。在第一幕中，事情会被设定和展开。一般情况下就是这样。我认为这里特别有趣的是所有剧本都必须有一个所谓的“孕育时刻”，也就是为什么这个故事要在现在发生，而不是一个月前或明年？为什么角色在这个时刻做出这个决定？如果你想到一个电影，讲述一个人急需钱的故事，电影开头就放一张他的门口的驱逐通知，表明事情现在就发生了，因为他马上就要失去房子了。我觉得这也很适用于投资论点。
It's like, why am I making this bet today instead of a month ago or next year? And that's called the pregnant moment in screenwriting. That's what we call it, the pregnant, the pregnant moment. Like why is this the story must begin right now instead of another moment? Yeah, we call that the why now. So the why now in venture investing is GPS now exists. Therefore Uber can exist. Oh, unlimited storage at a very low price exists. Now YouTube can exist in store of these files. Oh, unlimited fiber and bandwidth exists now. Netflix can stream and, you know, HD and a large number of people can hit those files. So you do have the why now and obviously AI is going to be the why now for so many companies, whether it's full self driving or optimist, the robot and robot technology or any number of pieces of software. So anyway, that's my J trade.
这段英语大意是：为什么我要在今天下注而不是一个月前或明年？这在编剧中被称为"孕育时刻"。也就是说，为什么这个故事现在必须开始，而不是在其他时候？我们称之为“为什么是现在”。在风险投资中，“为什么是现在”可以是由于技术上的突破，比如因为GPS的存在，Uber才可能存在；因为低廉的无限存储空间，YouTube才能存储这些文件；因为无限的光纤和带宽，Netflix才可以流媒体播放高清内容，并且大量用户可以访问这些文件。因此，现在正是人工智能成为众多公司“为什么是现在”的原因，无论是自动驾驶，机器人技术，还是各种软件。所以，总之，这是我的观点。
Next story, humane. They've been acquired by HP. There are of course the makers of the infamous AI in that device. The goal was we're going to replace your smartphone with a device that doesn't have a big screen. So you won't be staring at the screen all day. The founders, their two former Apple executives and Bethany Bongiorno and Imran Chaudhury. And they said they were at a restaurant and they saw this family and everybody was staring at their screens and it made them very depressed. And they thought, isn't there a way we can keep everybody connected using these incredible new AI tools, verbal commands. And so it's a combination. You can input things verbally, like just talk to your device or it has a little projector so you could hold your hand up and it could actually project like a screen instead of having a screen.
接下来的故事是关于Humane公司。他们被惠普公司收购了。这家公司以其设备中臭名昭著的人工智能而闻名。该公司的目标是用一种没有大屏幕的设备来取代你的智能手机，以避免你整天盯着屏幕看。创始人是两位前苹果高管，贝萨尼·邦吉奥诺 (Bethany Bongiorno) 和伊姆兰·乔杜里 (Imran Chaudhury)。他们表示，他们曾在一家餐馆看到一家人，所有人都在盯着屏幕看，这让他们感到非常沮丧。他们想，是否有一种方法可以利用这些令人惊叹的新人工智能工具和语音命令来保持大家的互联。因此，这是一种结合的方式：你可以通过语音输入信息，比如直接对设备说话，或者它有一个小型投影仪，可以把手举起来，设备就可以投影出屏幕的效果，而不需要实际的屏幕。
Most of the startups assets have now been acquired by HP for $116 million. HP first thing discontinued sales of the $499 AI in support ends on February 28. So if you, okay, one of these, they want you to download your data and your photos because it's going to stop working at the end of this month. So they're just acquiring the team, I guess, correct and the IP, maybe they have some patents, but this is, you know, sometimes you get what's called an aqua hire or a landing. I think this means there's no number associated with this. And they're very clear saying this product is done.
大部分初创公司的资产现已被惠普以1.16亿美元收购。惠普首先停止了售价499美元的AI产品的销售，并将在2月28日停止支持。所以，如果你是这个产品的用户，建议你下载自己的数据和照片，因为这个产品将在本月底停止运作。他们主要是收购了团队，也许还有一些专利。这种情况有时被称为"收购团队"或"软着陆"。我认为这意味着不会在产品上投入更多资源，而且他们明确表示这个产品已经结束了。
Yeah. They're actually going to move the team into a new HP division called the HP IQ that is going to develop other kinds of AI tech and gadgets. I thought that this product had potential. Any kind of wearable has potential given how small these devices are getting and how powerful they are and how good voice is getting. This one felt like they really got it out early and I think they didn't manage expectations. If you were going to launch a really groundbreaking product like this and it doesn't exactly work and I think Marquez, you know, kind of gave it a harsh review and they got a little tweaked and everything. If you've launched this and said this is a beta product.
是的。他们实际上要把团队转移到一个新的惠普部门，叫做HP IQ，这个部门将开发其他种类的人工智能技术和设备。我认为这个产品很有潜力。任何类型的可穿戴设备都有潜力，因为这些设备越来越小、越来越强大，语音技术也变得越来越好。这个产品让我觉得他们确实很早就推出了，但我认为他们没有很好地管理期望。如果你要发布这样一种突破性的产品，而它的表现不如预期，我记得Marquez给了它相当严厉的评价，结果他们遭受了一些批评。如果他们当时能说这是一个测试版产品就好了。
It's an alpha product. It's for the Vanguard. Work in progress. We're going to put out some use cases. We're looking for a thousand people to join the beta and then we're going to expand the beta to 5,000 and it's a developer preview, which they did for Apple vision pro. They said this is not for consumers. This is for developers. They just had launches as developers. I think the company could still exist today. I think the problem was they thought they could just launch just like an iPhone and they came from Apple and they thought it was polished enough and you know what? It looks polished enough, but the use cases weren't there.
这是一款Alpha版本的产品，是为先锋用户准备的，仍在开发中。我们打算推出一些使用案例，正在寻找一千人来参与Beta测试，然后将Beta测试扩大到五千人。这是一个开发者预览版，就像苹果为Apple Vision Pro做的一样。他们说这不是为消费者准备的，而是为开发者的。而且他们推出时也只是面向开发者发布。我认为这家公司可能还会继续存在。我觉得问题在于他们以为可以像推出iPhone一样推出这款产品，他们来自苹果公司，以为产品已经足够完善。说实话，它看起来的确足够完善，但缺乏适合的使用案例。
Sometimes you need use cases, use cases and what we would call in the business, a killer app. Now, most startups are just a killer app themselves, hopefully, right? You're like, I have a killer app. This is my idea. It's going to be a killer app. The idea here was to create a platform and then a killer app would emerge, but they kind of launched it as if it was like super polished and it looks super polished. So I think the expectation was, well, it's going to do what it says it's going to do and it didn't because language models aren't ready in that. Now, there's a rabbit or one or something. That's that little handheld device. If you remember, and I had the founder on here, and he was very clear. Like I'm launching an experimental device. I want you to play with it. Give me some ideas. And I think that's still going.
有时候你需要使用案例，也就是我们在商业中所说的“杀手级应用”。大多数初创公司本身就是一个“杀手级应用”，希望如此，对吧？你可能会想，我有一个杀手级应用，这是我的想法，它将成为一个杀手级应用。这里的想法是创建一个平台，然后让“杀手级应用”自然涌现，但他们推出时表现得好像已经非常成熟，看起来就像是非常成熟的产品。所以我认为人们的期望是，它会实现其承诺的功能，但实际上并没有做到，因为语言模型还没准备好这样做。然后，有一个兔子玩具或类似的东西，就是那个手持设备。如果你还记得，我请过它的创始人来，他非常明确地说：“我正在推出一款实验性设备，希望你们来玩玩并给些反馈。”我认为这个项目还在继续。
You know, when you release things like that and their skunk work projects, developer reviews like Apple vision pro. There's nobody like wringing their hands about Apple vision pro not working or not being perfect because they know it's a developer preview. This one, and we have to get the founder back on when he hits the one year mark. So producer Maddie, if you could a researcher, Maddie, if you could go look into when he was on and let's have him back on. He's a really fascinating cat who built this. I think that was their problem. They just the gap between what people thought it was going to be and what it was.
你知道，当人们发布像 Apple Vision Pro 这样的技术和他们的秘密项目时，大家都知道这只是一个开发者预览版。所以没人会因为它不完美或者不工作而感到担心。至于这个项目，我们得在其创立一周年时请创始人再来做一次访谈。制片人玛蒂和研究员玛蒂，请你们帮忙查一下他上次是什么时候参与的节目，然后再邀请他来。他是一个很有趣的人，曾经创造了这个项目。我认为他们的问题在于，人们对产品的期望与实际结果之间存在差距。
Mark has if it was framed as this is just a developer review, he would have given it a different review, but he was like, Hey, this thing's weighed. It's like destroying my sweater. And it's getting hot on my skin. You know what? It didn't answer these questions. There was just a long line of things that he thought were not ready for prime time. Yeah. If you can release something that's not ready for prime time, it can't cost a premium price and you can't pitch it as it's ready for prime time. To me that immediately at that $500 price point, if this is a $200 thing that early adopters can chess can play around with, I think it's a totally different story. I think it's the same thing with the Apple vision pro. It didn't launch with like one killer thing you have to try. And it's overpriced. And so people are like, well, I'll wait till the next in iteration of whatever this is. Correct. Yeah.
马克表示，如果这只是一个开发者的评测，他的评价可能会有所不同。但他的态度是这样的：这东西太重了，好像快要把我的毛衣搞坏了，而且在皮肤上感觉很热。这个产品没有解决一些问题，还有很多方面他觉得还没准备好投入市场。如果你发布的东西还没准备好进入市场，就不应该收取高昂的价格，也不应该宣传说它已经准备就绪。在我看来，如果这个产品售价是500美元，而它还不成熟，并不能说服消费者付出如此高的价格。假如这是一个200美元的产品，供早期采纳者试玩，那就完全是另一回事。我认为苹果的Vision Pro也是一样，没有推出一个必须要尝试的突出功能，而且价格过高，使得人们更愿意等待下一个版本。
So lots of startup lessons there. I do give them points for audacity and being bold. I wish there were 10 more companies that did this. I believe the winning format is a bangle. I'm putting it out there right now. I like a bangle. You remember in Empire Strikes Back, there were the robots that had the earpieces on. Yeah. And are they a brand of robot? I thought that was that guy's name, Lowbot. Your book on mine right now. I think his name is Lowbot, but there have been other people who look like him. Cybernetic kind of. Yes. In future episodes.
从中可以学到很多创业的经验。我确实佩服他们的大胆和勇气。我希望有更多这样的公司。我相信成功的形式是手镯。我现在就说出来。我喜欢手镯。你还记得《帝国反击战》里的机器人戴着耳机吗？是啊，那它们是某种机器人品牌吗？我以为是那个人的名字，叫洛博特。现在就放在我的书上。我觉得他的名字是洛博特，但后来也有其他人长得像他。是一种网络化的感觉。是的，在之后的剧集中也出现过。
I don't know. We'll have to look at Wokepedia. Wokepedia. Wokepedia. My former friend. Lando Calarissin. You can pull it up and show on for people who don't know. Starts typing. And you see on his arm, he has like a computer on his arm. Yeah. Because like from his wrist, you know, his whole forearm is basically a computer. I would very much like to be at dinner as I'm holding my hands right now. So the person I'm talking to is seeing the back of my hand. And when I hold it up here, there's Lowbot. I'm looking at a screen where my veins are on the inside of my forearm. Interesting. And I think I've been very not intrusive. Because if you look at how I'm looking right now and kind of looking at my palm and they have that same observation, except they wanted to project onto your body. You'd hold it. Your pocket was here and so you'd hold your hand out and you'd see what would be on the screen. It's interesting. It's hard for me to imagine doing that all day, but I did like, I agree with you. Like, I like the idea that they have this far out. Maybe people will get into using their phones this way and they went for it. It's definitely like a very creative new approach, even if it didn't work out.
我不知道。我们得去看看“觉醒百科”（Wokepedia）。觉醒百科。觉醒百科。我的前朋友，兰多·卡拉里森。你可以打开展示给那些不知道的人看。他开始打字。你会看到他的手臂上像有一台电脑。从手腕到整个前臂基本上都是电脑。我很想在吃晚餐时，可以像现在这样举着我的手，对方看到的是我的手背。当我把手举到这里时，有个洛博特（Lowbot）。我在看一个屏幕，屏幕上能看见我前臂内部的静脉。这很有趣。我觉得我并没有太冒犯。因为如果你看我现在的样子，我是朝手掌看的，而他们有相似的观察，只不过他们想把影像投射到你身上。你可以这样拿着。你的口袋在这儿，所以你伸出手，可以看到屏幕上的东西。这很有趣。让我想象整天这样做有点困难，但我同意你的看法：我喜欢他们有这样的远见。也许人们会开始用这种方式使用手机，他们勇于尝试。这绝对是一种很有创意的新方法，即使最终没有成功。
Founders, let's be real. Let's keep it a buck. Finding great developers is hard. It's like one of the hardest things you have to do in our industry, especially when you're trying to run and scale your startup. But here's the good news. I got a tip that's going to save you time, money, and a ton of headaches. You need to check out lemon.io. Lemon.io has thousands of on-demand developers who can help you. They have done all the work to find and vet great developers who are experienced, who are results oriented, and who charge competitive rate. Great developers, we know, are hard to find and integrate into your team. So lemon.io will handle all of that for you. They're only going to offer you handpicked developers with at least three years of experience. And if something goes wrong, lemon.io will find you a replacement developer ASAP. A bunch of launch founders have worked with lemon.io and they have told me they've had a great experience.
创始人们，让我们谈谈现实。 坦诚一点，在我们的行业中，找到优秀的开发者是非常困难的事情之一，尤其是当你试图运行和扩展你的创业公司时。但有个好消息，我有一个建议可以帮你省时、省钱，减少大量麻烦。你应该去看看 lemon.io。lemon.io 拥有成千上万名可以随时提供帮助的开发人员。他们已经进行了所有工作，找到了经过严格筛选的优秀开发者，这些开发者经验丰富，注重结果，并且收费具有竞争力。我们都知道，优秀的开发者很难找，也很难融入你的团队。因此，lemon.io 会为你处理这一切。他们只会为你推荐具有至少三年经验的精挑细选的开发者。而且如果出现任何问题，lemon.io 会立刻为你找到替代的开发者。许多创业公司的创始人与 lemon.io 合作过，他们都告诉我体验非常棒。
So here's your call to action. Go to lemon.io slash twist and find your perfect developer or an entire tech team in 48 hours or less. And Swiss listeners get 15% off the first four weeks. So stop burning money. Our developer smarter visit lemon.io slash twist. We got another quick hit story here. Open AI vet Mira Maradi. She's their former CTO. She launched her new startup this week thinking machines lab and it's staffed full of former open AI or two thirds of the team exited open AI to come work for this new company.
以下是您的行动号召：访问 lemon.io/twist，在 48 小时内找到您理想的开发者或整个技术团队。瑞士的听众还可以享受前四周15%的折扣。所以，别再浪费钱了！我们有更聪明的开发者，快来访问 lemon.io/twist。
我们还有一个简讯：Open AI 的前高管米拉·马拉迪（Mira Maradi），她曾是该公司的首席技术官，本周她推出了自己的新创业公司——Thinking Machines Lab。这家新公司云集了许多前 Open AI 员工，其中三分之二的团队成员来自 Open AI，现在加入了这家新公司。
Mira Maradi, of course, left open AI unexpectedly in late September. We heard rumors of behind the scenes personality clashes, but I did a lot of research on this yesterday and couldn't get a definitive. Here's what happened behind the scenes in open AI. That includes Barrett Zofe. He was open AI's researcher. He's now thinking machines new CTO and former open AI chief scientist, John Shulman is a co-founder along with Mira Maradi. Zof actually quit open AI on the same day that Mira Maradi left in September. Something happened behind the scenes. I mean, I think what happened was exactly what we saw during the firing of Sam Altman and the rehiring of him. Sam has taken control over the nonprofit and the for profit. I think maybe the stage is big enough for one person from open AI and you had a collection of incredibly talented people there.
当然，Mira Maradi在9月下旬突然离开了Open AI。我们听到了一些关于幕后性格冲突的传言，但我昨天对此进行了大量研究，仍无法得到明确的信息。以下是Open AI幕后发生的事情。包括Barrett Zofe，他曾是Open AI的研究员，现在是Thinking Machines的新任CTO。前Open AI首席科学家John Shulman也与Mira Maradi共同创立了这家公司。Zof实际上是在Mira Maradi于9月离开的同一天辞去了Open AI的职务。幕后一定发生了什么。我认为这与当初Sam Altman被解雇又重新聘用时的情况类似。Sam已经掌控了非营利和营利部门。我想，Open AI的舞台可能只容得下一个主角，而那里聚集了一批极其有才华的人。
If we were to make a list of the 10 most important people from open AI taking out Sam Altman, I don't know, three years ago, I wonder how many are still there. It's kind of, I think, they've bled this talent. There's probably two reasons for it. One, there's some leadership style that Sam has or the way he's decided to take it from an open source nonprofit to a closed for profit. There's the self-dealing or the deal making, which is, I know Sam for a long time, 20 years almost. He's really good at deal making. I mean, maybe that rubs people the wrong way, which is fine. Cultures change. I think they shouldn't be allowed to do it, but there should be some constraints on it. Let's put aside.
如果我们在三年前列出一个没有包括萨姆·阿尔特曼（Sam Altman）的OpenAI十大重要人物，我不知道现在还有多少人留在那里。我认为，他们已经流失了很多人才。可能有两个原因。第一，萨姆的领导风格或者他决定将公司从一个开源的非营利组织转变为一个封闭的营利公司，这可能产生了影响。还有一些内部交易或利益安排，我认识萨姆快20年了，他确实擅长做交易。也许这让一些人感到不满，不过这也没关系，毕竟，文化会发生变化。我认为，他们不应该被允许这样做，但应该对此有限制。不谈这个。
The second thing that's happening here is Joshua Kushner, Jared's brother, he has a firm called Thrive. Thrive has been doing secondaries. What's a secondary? That's when an investor buys employee shares or early investor shares so that they can own a higher percentage of the company. The company's issuing, I don't know, a billion dollars in new shares. When they set up a billion dollars to buy out the existing employees who have been there for four, five, six, seven years, I think that's what happened. Yeah. Yeah. Here is that they cashed out and they're like, hey, let me start a new thing where I'm in control and I get to make the decision.
这里的第二件事是关于约书亚·库什纳，他是贾里德·库什纳的兄弟，他有一家名为Thrive的公司。Thrive一直在进行“二次交易”。那什么是“二次交易”呢？这指的是投资者购买员工股份或早期投资者股份，以便在公司中获得更高的持股比例。公司可能会发行十亿美元的新股，用于买断那些已经工作了四到七年的员工的股份。我认为就是这样的情况。他们套现了，然后他们可能想要开始一个新的项目，自己掌控并做出决策。
So this new company focusing on AI alignment, which they define as encoding human values into AI models to make them safer and more reliable. Okay. So she is leading with safety and reliability, which is the area. Get a bit out. Another open AI early innovator, his company, super intelligence is now also AI safety and protecting us from the evil robots to come. I think that was everybody's original concept was, let's build this in a safe way. It was the mandate. And now it's not the mandate. Now the mandate is to maximize shareholder value, make as much money as possible, etc. And become a for profit. So understandable. And I think this is open AI's biggest challenge.
这家新公司专注于AI对齐，即将人类价值观编码到AI模型中，以使其更加安全和可靠。那么，她以安全性和可靠性为核心进行领导，这是该领域的重点。另一位OpenAI的早期创新者，他的公司超级智能如今也致力于AI的安全性和保护我们免受未来邪恶机器人的威胁。我想大家最初的理念就是要以一种安全的方式来构建AI，这是任务宗旨。然而，现在任务宗旨变成了最大化股东价值、赚取尽可能多的钱等等，转变为盈利公司，所以这种情况可以理解。我认为，这是OpenAI面临的最大挑战。
And you won't see it in the short term because they've got, they had a pretty good head start. They coined the term chat GPT. It's become a brand. People use it instead of using Google or bang. So it's, you know, it's like a, they've gotten a certain amount of credibility there. And super facing AI chat GPT is super dominant, like super amazingly dominant, I think. And that will take a little while for it to change, right? In the early days of search engines, Magellan and light goes. Yeah, there were tons of different opera opera. Well, those were the browsers and then on the search engine. So even with browsers, you had it too, right? You had a Netflix browser, a Netscape browser, a Lynx browser, whatever. And then now you use Chrome or Firefox.
他们起步良好，所以短期内你可能不会看到变化。他们创造了“聊天GPT”这个词，它已经成为一个品牌，人们开始用它代替谷歌或必应。因此，它获得了一定程度的信誉。在人工智能聊天领域，聊天GPT非常占据主导地位，极其显著，我觉得这种情况需要一段时间才能改变。就像在搜索引擎的早期阶段，有Magellan和Lycos，以及很多不同的浏览器，例如Netflix浏览器、Netscape浏览器、Lynx浏览器等等。现在人们则使用Chrome或Firefox。
I wonder what their innovation curve is going to look like when they lose those individuals. I don't know that they've replaced them, but I do with better people or hunger at your people. But what I do know is every time one of those people leaves and creates a competitor, you've got a double challenge. So this is why Google was so brilliant. They dumped money into the laps of their top talent and absurd, such an absurd amount of money that and such a low expectation of performance that they literally created a meme on the Silicon Valley TV show with Hoolie, where people would rest and vest and big head would hang out on the roof with other people arresting, investing, getting sun and it was kind of like a no show job from the sopranos at the Esplanade.
我想知道，当他们失去那些人才后，他们的创新曲线会是什么样子。我不知道他们是否已经找到替代者，也许是更优秀的人或者是充满斗志的人。但我知道的是，每当有一个这样的人离开并创建了一个竞争对手，企业就会面临双重挑战。这就是为什么谷歌如此聪明的原因。他们给顶尖人才砸下大笔资金，金额之大和工作要求之低简直可笑，因此在《硅谷》这部电视剧中，他们成为了一个梗。剧中Hoolie公司的人在那里“休息并等待兑现股票”，和其他人在屋顶享受阳光，这种感觉就像《黑道家族》中的虚职。
So why did they do that? Why was it brilliant? Well, if you pay somebody $2 million a year to sit on the roof for five years and they make $10 million, you seem like the sucker. If that person leaves and creates a Google competitor and takes about 1% market share, well, that cost you $10 billion in market cap, no, $20 billion in market cap. So that was the strategy. It was explicit in Silicon Valley. They just wanted to corner the market on technologists and people who could create competitors. If Sam was smart, he would have and I'm not saying Sam's not smart, but a better strategy for Sam would have been able would have been to lock these folks up with deals that were so absurd.
那他们为什么要这么做呢？为什么这个策略很聪明呢？好吧，如果你每年支付某人200万美元，让他在屋顶上呆五年，而他赚到了1000万美元，你看起来像是个傻瓜。但如果那个人离开并创建了一个Google的竞争对手，并抢占了约1%的市场份额，那么这会让你损失100亿，甚至200亿美元的市值。这就是他们的策略，在硅谷是显而易见的。他们只想垄断科技人才和那些能够创造竞争产品的人。如果山姆聪明的话，他应该——我不是说山姆不聪明，但对山姆来说，更好的策略是用一些非常荒谬的合约来锁住这些人才。
If the company is going from a hundred fifty billion to three hundred fifty billion, he should have literally given the top 10 people a billion dollars in equity to stick around to not go do this. Not because they're worth a billion dollars each. Nobody is. But blocking future competition would be worth it. Shout out, Lena Khan. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. That is definitely something that's going on. One more quick hit before we jump into the main stories of the day. I wanted to pull up your best Guichamat is had this idea for a high stakes tournament. I wanted to pick your brain on all of his various, the rules he's attaching, whether this is something you would like to compete in. So first of all, no, no, he will. He's going to enforce a no drug policy, which includes focus up drugs like riddling and Adderall, no sunglasses. You can't obscure your face. He wants everybody making eye contact the whole time and doesn't want it to be one of these like all night endurance test kind of tournaments he wants it to be. You play during normal work hours. What do you think? Would you jump in on this?
如果这家公司从一千五百亿美元增长到三千五百亿美元，他确实应该给前十名员工每人提供十亿美元的股权以便让他们留下来，而不是去做其他事情。不是因为他们每个人的价值达到了十亿美元，而是因为这样可以阻止未来的竞争，这样做是值得的。向莉娜·可汗致敬。我觉得这个提议很有道理，这确实是在发生的事情。快速聊一下主新闻之前的最后一个话题，我想讨论一下Guichamat的一个高风险比赛的想法。我想听听你对他设定的各种规则的看法，看看你是否愿意参与其中。首先，他会执行一个禁药政策，这包括禁止使用像利他林和阿德拉这样的集中精力的药物。此外，不允许戴太阳镜，不能遮挡面部。他希望每个人全程保持眼神交流，也不希望比赛变成通宵的耐力测试，而是希望大家在正常工作时间进行比赛。你觉得怎么样？你愿意参加吗？
Well, okay, I can just give you a bit of insight information. Oh, okay. I have another podcast. It's called All In. That I started with Chumath and then David Sachs and then Freeburg joined us. America's crypto and AI Zard, David Sachs. Yes. And it's been come quite successful. It was number eight this week on the top charts and Chumath and I were a Megan Kelly and that shot melding Megan Kelly, who already is in the top 10 regularly up to number four for the Valentine's special. So very weird weekend for me. I was in two of the top eight podcasts of the weekend. All right. If you're shipping a product or rolling out an update, you're building a company, you need to be organized, right? We know that Atlassian has exactly what you need to streamline your work and smash your goals and the Atlassian for startups program is packed with all the tools you need like Jira where you can track every task sprint and bug. That's the industry standard confluence. Another industry standard for team collaboration and documentation. And of course, Loom for quick video, explainer creation.
好的，我可以给你提供一些内部信息。哦，好。我有另一档播客，叫做《All In》。我和Chumath一起开始的，然后David Sachs加入了我们，之后Freeburg也加入了。David Sachs被称为美国的加密货币和人工智能大亨。是的，这个播客变得非常成功。这个星期它在排行榜上排到了第八，而Chumath和我与Megan Kelly一起，使得Megan Kelly的节目从经常位列前十升到了情人节特别节目的第四名。所以对我来说，这是一个非常奇怪的周末，因为我参与了两个周末前八的播客。
如果你在推出产品或更新，或者正在建设公司，你需要保持组织性，对吧？我们都知道Atlassian有你所需的一切，可以简化工作，帮助你实现目标。Atlassian的初创公司项目提供了所有你所需的工具，比如Jira，可以跟踪每个任务、冲刺和Bug，这是行业标准；Confluence，另一个用于团队协作和文档管理的行业标准；当然还有Loom，用于快速创建视频解释。
Now, Loom is really brilliant. My team started using Loom on their own. They started paying for it on their own. Why they wanted to get credit on the investment team for communicating to me, the general partner of the firm, why they wanted to invest in a company. So they would do a Loom where they recorded over a recording of an interview they did with a founder or visiting their website and going through why they want to invest in a company. And this was so great for me. I would be skiing in Japan. I would be on a flight to New York to see my parents and all of a sudden I get a notification for one of my team members, Hey, watch this Loom and I get the link for the Loom. I click it and then I can put comments at any time. So it's like doing a conference call, but on my time asynchronously and I can communicate right there on the video also included in Atlassian for startups is compass Jira product discovery, Bitbucket, so much more all powered by Atlassian intelligence. That's their built-in AI. Atlassian software helps companies like Canva, Cloudflare and Riveen keep growing and keep innovating.
现在，Loom 真是太棒了。我的团队自己开始使用 Loom，并自掏腰包订阅。他们之所以这样做，是为了在投资团队中获得承认，向我——公司的普通合伙人——解释他们为何想投资某家公司。他们会用 Loom 录制对创始人的采访，或者浏览公司网站并解释他们的投资理由。这对我来说非常好。我可能正在日本滑雪，或者在飞往纽约探望父母的航班上，突然收到团队成员的通知，说“嘿，看看这个 Loom”，我就能点击链接观看。同时，我可以在任何时候添加评论。这就像是在参与电话会议，但却是在我方便的时间进行的异步沟通。我还能在视频中直接回复。
此外，Atlassian 为初创公司提供的服务包括 Compass、Jira 产品发现、Bitbucket 等等，所有这些都由 Atlassian 智能驱动，这就是他们的内置 AI。Atlassian 的软件帮助 Canva、Cloudflare 和 Rivian 等公司持续增长和创新。
Whether your brainstorming on sticky notes or scaling to the big leads Atlassian is here to accelerate your startups growth. Check out Atlassian for startups where eligible startups get up to 50 seats for free for one full year. That is absurdly generous. Why can they be so generous at Atlassian? Because they're the standard. Atlassian is the standard and they are generous to startups because they were once a startup. I remember meeting them 20 years ago in Australia. What a great company. Head to Atlassian.com slash startups slash twist for complete details.
无论您是在便利贴上进行头脑风暴，还是计划扩展业务，Atlassian都能帮助加速您的初创企业发展。看看Atlassian的初创企业计划，符合条件的初创企业可以免费获得最多50个席位，期限长达一年。这真是慷慨至极。Atlassian为何如此慷慨？因为他们就是行业标准。Atlassian之所以对初创企业慷慨，是因为他们也曾是初创企业。我记得20年前在澳大利亚遇到过他们，真是一家了不起的公司。访问Atlassian.com/startups/twist获取完整详情。
That brand is very strong amongst rich people around the world. Very elite people. This one is very popular with venture capitalists and startups. Okay. This is a niche podcast. That's a broad based podcast. And we've been talking about doing this under the all in brand publicly. We've talked about this many times, but you might have seen Phil Hellmuth and you could pull up his tweet. He's 60 years old now. He's one of my best friends in the world just to stand up and mention the guy. And he was lamenting and he basically made an announcement that he will not be playing. He put the announcement and it got Instagram, but I'm sure it's on his Twitter.
那个品牌在全球富人中很有影响力，尤其是在精英阶层中非常受欢迎。另一个品牌在风险投资者和创业公司中很受欢迎。好吧，这是一个小众播客，而那是一个大众播客。我们一直在讨论将这一切放到"All In"品牌下进行，而且我们公开谈论过很多次了。你可能见过Phil Hellmuth，他刚刚60岁，是我世界上最好的朋友之一。我提到他是因为他最近对外宣布，他将不再玩扑克。他在Instagram上发布了这个声明，我相信他的推特上也有。
He said he's not going to play the main event. Now, he is the number one tournament poker player in the history of poker. He has 14 bracelets from the world series of poker. But what he said is like playing seven days in a row and they play, I think, 12 hour days or yeah, they and you get an hour break for dinner and then like two 20 minute breaks. But he said, you know, at 60 years old, it's an endurance test, not a skill test. And so I saw that he was sharing this. I saw people commenting on it. Let's just play it. If we have sound, we'll just play what he says here. This is a this I think is part of it. It's just too tough. Just too tough, you know, people don't be like, Oh, Phil, you can play seven days in a row. Yeah, try it. Try, try getting up and playing at noon until midnight. Seven days in a row. And then they're, Oh, well, today we have to play till two or three in the morning, which also happens at the W.S.O.P main event. It's just exhausting. And I can't win. And I think that it really hurts the older players in a much bigger proportion than the younger players. And I'll say this, I had four great players come and tell me that they blew the main event because they got too tired with 50 left with 30 left with 100 left. It's turned into an endurance test. I don't think that the World Series of Booker main event is measuring.
他说他不打算参加主赛事。现在，他是扑克史上排名第一的锦标赛选手，拥有14条世界扑克系列赛的冠军手链。但是他说，像这样连续打七天，每天大约12小时，中间只有一小时吃晚餐的休息时间和两个20分钟的小休，这在60岁时已经不再是技能的测试，而是耐力的测试。我看到他分享了这个观点，也看到很多人对此发表了评论。我们可以播放他的话，如果有声音的话。这难度太大了，太难了。那些人可能会说，哦，Phil，你可以连续打七天，试试看吧，试着每天中午开始打到午夜，连续七天。有时候还得打到凌晨两三点，这在世界扑克系列赛主赛事中也会发生，实在是太累了，我赢不了。我认为这确实对年纪较大的选手影响更大。我可以这么说，有四位优秀的选手告诉我，他们在比赛还剩50人、30人、100人时因为太累而失去了比赛机会。现在更像是一场耐力测试，我不认为这能真正衡量世界扑克系列赛主赛事的水平。
So anyway, he made this comment, then Daniel Negranu, you can look it up as well, a friend of mine. And he was complaining about all these people wearing hats, people wearing scarfs, masks, sunglasses and how it just looks ridiculous on television. And you can't breed people and it takes something out of it. So I think that resonates with people. And then I made a comment publicly like, you know, a lot of these kids are on speed. So in order to do 12 R a day, seven days in a row, what's happened in poker is everybody's on speed. Like everybody's on something at a raw, maybe illegal speed. I don't know everything in between. Now I understand people might use these things legally and have a prescription.
总之，他发表了这个评论，然后丹尼尔·内格里亚努也说了一些，可以查到的。他是我的一个朋友。他抱怨说，很多人戴着帽子、围巾、口罩和太阳镜，在电视上看起来很可笑。你无法读懂这些人的表情，这让一切变得少了些趣味。我觉得这个观点引起了大家的共鸣。然后我也公开发表了一些看法，比如，很多年轻人都在用兴奋剂。为了能连续七天每天打12小时的扑克，许多人都在用兴奋剂，可能是非法的速度剂，我不确定所有的细节。当然，我明白有些人可能是合法使用这些东西，并且有医生的处方。
However, I think it's like performance enhancing specifically for poker. If you've ever tried any of these things, like you will be focused. And so who knows, maybe in the 80s and 90s, people were doing cocaine and now they're just doing out our own substituting that. And so very vibrantly or precociously, whatever he said in his post that, hey, cocaine, not cocaine, they do drug testing for stimulants, whatever, that's pretty controversial. So anyway, this is all shaping up to be really fascinating and interesting. I decided to be part of it whenever it does happen.
我觉得这就像是专门为扑克设计的表现增强方式。如果你曾经尝试过这些东西，你会发现自己特别专注。所以谁知道呢，也许在八九十年代，人们用可卡因提神，而现在他们正在用其他东西代替。因此，用他帖子中的话来说，"嘿，可卡因，不是可卡因，他们会对兴奋剂进行药检"，这确实引发了很大争议。所以无论如何，这一切都变得非常引人入胜和有趣。我决定在这种事情发生时参与其中。
I'm assuming it's going to happen because Shamaf gets things done. And I feel like you guys should definitely live stream this, like the celebrities versus billionaires versus poker stars tournament. Like I know people who would want to watch that. I think it will be a big hit. The all in brand is in sugar, not obviously. All right, we don't need. You know, I'll leave it to Shamaf too, because I think he's going to spearhead it. Obviously, I'll leave it to him to do all the details, obviously, and I'll just show up.
我猜这事会发生，因为Shamaf办事靠谱。我觉得你们应该直播这场比赛，就像明星对阵亿万富翁对阵扑克高手的锦标赛一样。我认识一些人肯定会想看这个。我相信这会是个大热的活动。"all in"这个品牌毫无疑问很有吸引力。好的，我们不需要多说。我会把这事交给Shamaf，我相信他会主导这个项目。显然，我会把所有细节都留给他处理，而我只需要到场就好了。
But just thinking about the all in brands reach the top 1% of our audience can play, you know, $100,000 enough buy-ins. And then I would say the top 20% of the audience could play 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, no problem. Well, I mean, the world series progress 10k. Yeah, no, it's a lot of money. If you're a poker player and you do it 10 times and you think you can cash, you know, you don't want to make it too low because you don't want amateur casuals playing. You want it to be people who take their poker relatively seriously so they're good matches, you know?
但是，当我们考虑那些顶级品牌可以吸引到我们1%的顶尖观众时，你知道，他们可以玩得起10万美元的买入。我会说，我们大约20%的观众能够毫无压力地参与1万、2.5万、5万美元的投入。世界系列赛的进展是1万美元。是的，这确实是很多钱。如果你是个扑克玩家，你玩了10次并且认为自己能赢得一些奖金，你不想把买入金额定得太低，因为你不想让那些业余爱好者参与。你希望参与者是那些对扑克比较认真，因此能打出精彩比赛的人。
Yeah. So we'll see what he comes up with. I'm here to support it. I'm here for it. It sounds like it would be also a lot of fun. And I tweeted like, make it eight hours a day of playing instead of 12 and then do 320 breaks, no dinner breaks. So you started 11, you're done by eight, then you can go to dinner or you can choose to go to bed. And then in the morning, you can work out, you can hit the pool, you could have a nice leisurely breakfast and you can show up at 11, 11, 30, 12.
好的，那我们来看看他会想出什么。我全力支持，我挺他。这听起来也会很有趣。我发推建议说，改成每天玩八小时，而不是十二小时，然后有320次休息，但没有晚餐休息。这样你在11点开始，晚上8点结束，然后你可以去吃晚饭，或者选择去睡觉。第二天早上你可以锻炼身体，游泳，享受悠闲的早餐，然后在11点、11点半或12点到场。
Some people show up late for these tournaments and they'll lose a couple of blinds, but they rather be fresh. All right, let's get into some of our main topics for the day. Number one, Nicola files for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. This is of course the electric truck maker that at one time they were going to be Tesla for semi trucks once valued at $30 billion. They now file for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. They failed to find a buyer or raise funds to sustain operations. So now the plan is auction off assets.
有些人参加这些锦标赛时会晚到，他们会损失几手盲注，但他们宁愿保持精力充沛。好吧，让我们进入今天的一些主要话题。第一，尼古拉申请了第11章破产保护。这就是那个曾经要成为电动半挂卡车界的特斯拉的电动卡车制造商，曾被估值300亿美元。现在，他们申请了第11章破产保护，因为未能找到买家或筹集资金来维持运营。计划是拍卖资产。
Big turning point in the history of this company, of course, launched to a lot of fanfare. Wall Street got briefly excited. They launched us on the stock market before they even had sold a single truck. And this was always people were very conceptually excited about this. But founder and original CEO Trevor Milton, there was a scandal around his leadership of the company. He was convicted in 2022 for securities and wire fraud after misleading investors. A lot of it comes down to what's known as the rolling truck video, where he claimed the Nicola truck was driving under its own power. It was actually rolling downhill in the in the video. It was a purely sort of fraudulent to the SEC settlement cost the company about 125 million in penalties. That was basically the beginning of the end for them.
这家公司历史上的一个重大转折点，当然，是以极大的声势推出的。这一举动一度令华尔街感到兴奋。他们在甚至还没有卖出一辆卡车之前，就将公司推向了股市。人们对这个概念充满了期待。然而，创始人兼原CEO特雷弗·米尔顿因其在公司领导期间的丑闻在2022年被判证券和电信诈骗罪名成立，误导了投资者。事情很大程度上与一个名为"滑行卡车视频"的事件有关，当时他声称尼古拉卡车是靠自身动力行驶的，而实际上视频中的卡车只是在下坡滑行。这种纯粹的欺诈行为使公司与美国证券交易委员会达成的和解协议中支付了大约1.25亿美元的罚款。这基本上标志着他们的衰落开始。
They only have 47 million in cash left for bankruptcy proceedings with liabilities between one and $10 billion and one to 5,000 outstanding creditors. So they are in a lot of trouble and they're part of a broader shakeout in the EV sector. Lordstown Motors in 2023, arrival in 2024. Could new already this year have all sort of gone belly up and Rivian and Lucid are still afloat, but uncertain futures. They're struggling as well. Yeah, I mean, Rivian and Lucid are learning just how hard it is to scale manufacturing. You remember it almost killed Elon in the Model 3. I spent some time with them in the. I mean, I basically went to see him do a mental health check on my guy during the Model 3 because, you know, I was talking to him and he's like, yeah, I'm at the factory. And I was like, wait, it's just like 11 o'clock. Like, let's go get a steak or something. He's like, yeah, I got to stay here. I was like, all right, I'm going to bring you a burger. Where are you? I came out to see him. Like he was literally sleeping in the conference room while he was trying to get that Model 3 out the door and he did. And it became actually, I think the best selling car in the EV category. You're correct. So the Model 3 was the world's all time best selling electric car as of 2021. It's since been topped by the Model lot. You're correct. Okay. So I got it exactly right. Sometimes I get things right here. Sometimes you mail it. Well, I mean, I read a lot and I get prepared for the show. And then when I'm wrong, people pile on. I mean, my lord, there's a, there's a large number of MAGA folks who are waiting for me to make a mistake and they just don't got me, which I like actually call me. Not if I get something wrong.
他们只剩下4700万美元的现金来进行破产程序，而债务在10亿到100亿美元之间，还有1到5000位未偿付的债权人。所以，他们面临很大的麻烦，他们是电动车行业更大范围洗牌的一部分。Lordstown Motors 在2023年面临困境，Arrival 则在2024年。可能今年已经有一些企业倒闭，尽管Rivian和Lucid仍在运作，但未来不明朗，他们也在苦苦挣扎。是的，我的意思是，Rivian和Lucid正在学习扩大量产是多么困难。你记得这几乎让Elon在生产Model 3时崩溃。我曾花了一些时间和他们在一起。我当时基本上是去看看我的伙计的精神状态，因为我在跟他聊天，他说，没错，我在工厂。我说，现在不是晚上11点吗？我们去吃牛排。他说，不行，我得待在这儿。我说，那好吧，我给你带一个汉堡。你在哪儿？我去看他时，他真的在会议室睡觉，同时竭力让Model 3下线，而他做到了。它其实成了电动车行业中最畅销的车型之一。你说得对，截至2021年，Model 3是全球历史上最畅销的电动车。自那以后，Model Y的销量超过了它。是的，所以我准确无误地说对了。有时候我能把事情说对。有时候真的灵光一现。嗯，我阅读很多，为节目做好准备。而当我出错时，人们就会蜂拥而上。老天，这里有很多MAGA的支持者等着我犯错，然后他们就来找我，我其实还挺喜欢这样的，如果我错了就来叫我。
So it's really hard to scale manufacturing. Anybody can make a hundred cars. Anybody can make a thousand cars when you want to make a thousand a week, five thousand a week. You know, now you got a real challenge. I knew Milton was a fraud. You know, I got a pretty good eye for this. There are people who are delusional and I would say not thoughtful. And then there are people who are delusional and competent. I love me the latter, but incompetent delusional people. I mean, they just incinerate money, competent delusional people change the world. And they might incinerate some money, but you know, if you think, hey, I'm going to put a computer on everybody's desk and you're broke a thing, you're competent, you make good software and you're aggressive and you understand distribution and whatever, you know, like you might just make it happen. And that's what we do all day long as venture capital. We're looking for those delusional.
所以，扩大制造规模真的很难。任何人都可以制造一百辆车，也可以制造一千辆车，但是如果你想每周制造一千辆或五千辆，那才是真正的挑战。我知道米尔顿是个骗子，我对此有不错的判断能力。有些人是妄想型思维且不够周全，而有些人则是妄想型思维但很有能力。我喜欢后者，但那些无能的妄想者，他们只会烧钱，而有能力的妄想者能改变世界。他们可能会烧掉一些钱，但如果你认为“嘿，我要让每个人桌上都有一台电脑”，你又能力出众，能做出好的软件，很有干劲，并且了解如何分销，那你可能就能成功实现。这就是我们每天作为风险投资人的工作，寻找那些有妄想却有能力的人。
Another word would be ambitious, competent people. And it's important. My only second point here is that I want all founders to understand what securities fraud is at its core. You make a claim and then somebody buys a share of stock from you, whether you're a private company or a public company. So you make a claim and then they buy a share. If you make a claim that you know is false or you are reckless, you know, in a repeated way and you know, this is a spectrum here and that's why we have courts. What Elizabeth Holmes did in covering up these wild claims and then raising money, that's where the wire fraud comes in. So securities fraud, you told the story. We're just talking about Bill Ackman telling a story, right? We talked about story time. Yeah, you could you could spin a yarn all day long, but the facts have to be correct as you know them. And then your predictions need to be clearly predictions. You can meet the most outlandish prediction you want. If it's framed as a prediction, and I'll just give you an example of this.
另一个词就是有雄心壮志且有能力的人，这很重要。我这里的第二点是，我希望所有创始人都能理解证券欺诈的本质。你提出一个说法，然后有人从你手里购买股票，无论你是私营公司还是上市公司。你做出一个声明，然后他们买下股票。如果你明知道这个说法是假的，或者你在重复的情况下轻率行事，这就是为什么我们需要法庭的原因。伊丽莎白·霍尔姆斯通过掩盖这些离谱的说法来筹集资金，这就是电信欺诈的用武之地。所以在证券欺诈中，你是在讲一个故事。我们只是谈论比尔·阿克曼讲故事，对吧？我们谈到了故事时间。是的，你可以整天编故事，但事实必须与你所知的一致，然后你的预测需要明确地标明是预测。你可以提出任何最荒诞的预测，只要它被明确表述为预测。我会给你举个例子。
I and this will be an amalgamation of startups because I never liked to talk specifically about one startup is people might be able to unpack it and then, you know, it's a bad look for me to be criticizing a founder since my mission in life is to support founders and inspire innovation. Imagine you pitch a bunch of investors, angel investors, and you put on a slide for your team, somebody who you made an offer to, but who had not accepted the offer. Now imagine on your next slide, you talk about customers, customers pretty well defined term of art. It's not even a term of art. It's a term. Yeah, it's very binary. Like they're they bought something from you or they have. Exactly. And then there's people on unpaid trials. There are people who have tested your product. There are free users. And then there's something in cells called your pipeline. I have seen imagine the same, you know, a composite of a founder. They took their customer lists, which had one customer, let's say, and their pipeline, which had nine customers. And they put it on a slide that said our customers and those nine people had clicked on a link and used the product as in they logged into it maybe or they touched it in some way, but they didn't actually put a credit card in or getting in voice or actually use it meaningfully.
我来讲的是关于几家初创企业的事情，因为我不太喜欢具体谈论某一个公司，否则别人可能会猜出是哪家，然后就会显得我在批评某位创始人，而我的人生使命是支持创始人并激励创新。想象一下，当你向一群投资者，比如天使投资人推介时，有一个团队的PPT页面，其中包括了你提出过邀请但尚未接受的人员。接着，在下一个页面，你提到了客户。客户这个词有非常明确的定义：就是他们已经从你这里购买了东西，或者即将购买。在这个定义中，还可以包括正在使用免费试用的用户、已经试用过你产品的用户、免费用户，以及销售中所说的潜在客户名单。我见过这样一种情况，比如一个创始人的组合：他们在展示客户列表时，实际只有一个真正的客户，而在潜在客户名单中有九个。这九个人可能只是点击过链接，用过产品，也许只是登录或以某种方式接触过它，但实际上并没有输入信用卡信息、收到发票或以有意义的方式使用过产品。
Now that same angel investor finds out that these facts they were pitched on weren't right. They gave documents and they, you know, wrote notes and then they come back and say, by the way, I'd like my money back. Company's failing. Trying to raise a new rent, but it's got some money left in the bank and say, you know what, I'd like my 50,000 pack. Founder says, well, you know, you made the investments. Yes. But you committed security for it. This person never worked at the company and the I called three of these customers. They have no idea who you are. So I know that these three aren't customers. If you were that founder, what would you do with your last hundred K? You pay that guy off. Quite a good idea. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And then, uh, because if not, that person literally all they have to do is just email the SEC and say, I suspect fraud. The SEC is filled with people who have given up jobs long that are high paying in the private sector in order to do what they believe is noble important work in markets. And they might be doing it to get a bigger payday later. Okay. Whatever. Sure. But they are sacrificing for a couple of years to go do this kind of thing and Trevor. I think and the courts found knowingly committed, secure is fraught. I kind of saw it. There was a really interesting moment when I interviewed him on twist and I don't know if we have a clip ready, but we do. I just, okay. So this is, I did this over zoom, uh, from our studio and I'm just wanting to just give a trigger warning here. You're going to see fat J cow.
现在，那位天使投资人发现他们所听到的那些事实并不正确。他们提交了文件，并记了笔记，然后回来说，顺便说一句，我想要回我的钱。公司正在失败。试图进行新一轮的融资，但银行里还有一些钱，并且说，你知道吗，我想要回我的5万。创始人说，你知道的，你当初是做了投资的。是的，但你也为此提供了担保。这个人从未在公司工作过，我打电话给这三位客户，他们根本不知道你是谁。所以我知道这三位不是客户。如果你是那个创始人，你会用最后的10万怎么做？还上那个家伙的钱。好主意，对吧。对。否则，那个人只需给SEC发个邮件，说他怀疑有欺诈行为。SEC里满是那些放弃私营部门高薪工作来做他们认为在市场上重要而高尚工作的。也许他们是为了以后更高的收入。好吧，随便了。但是他们确实牺牲了几年时间来做这种工作。我认为法院发现其故意进行了证券欺诈。我在一次采访中看到了一些迹象，那次是在我们工作室通过Zoom进行的，我想在这里给个提醒，你将看到"胖J Cow"的片段。
So be careful folks. I'm pretty sure I'd be here. I know you see the schfeltness and you see the cannons and, you know, the muscle definition here. Listen, yeah, but in fact, J cows going to ask a question to Trevor Milton. The problem is is 90% of Americans will never own a semi truck. And so your investment, your investment, your portfolio of investors can be very limited. And we wanted to go and build a company that's going to be worth $500 billion, trillion over say 10 or 15 years. And if you're limiting yourself to 10% of the market, you'll never do it. No matter how good your numbers are.
各位请注意。我确信我会在这里。我知道你们看到了这些闪耀的光环、火炮，还有，你知道的，这里的肌肉线条。听着，是的，但实际上，J牛打算向特雷弗∙米尔顿提出一个问题。问题是90%的美国人永远不会拥有一辆半挂卡车。因此，你的投资、你的投资组合的投资者可能会非常有限。我们想建立一家在10或15年内价值达到5000亿甚至万亿美元的公司。如果你只专注于10%的市场，你永远无法实现。不管你的数据有多好。
The reason why people love Apple, everyone touches their product. Why do they love Google? Everyone touches their product. So what I did is I knew day one, you know, once, once we started coming out, we had all this gravy train coming in from the semi truck program. My question was, okay, that's great, but I'll never touch the average consumer. So therefore 90% of investors will probably never invest in me. So I needed to touch the consumer. And so the truck is for the profit, the semi truck, the pickup trucks for the consumer and the consumers, the one who is part of the Robin Hood.
人们喜爱苹果的原因是每个人都能接触到他们的产品。为什么大家喜欢谷歌？因为每个人都能使用他们的产品。因此，从一开始，我就知道，一旦我们开始推出产品，虽然我们从半挂车项目中获得了丰厚的利润，但我的问题是，这虽然很好，但我永远无法接触到普通消费者。因此，90%的投资者可能永远不会对我进行投资。因此，我需要接触消费者。半挂车是为了盈利，而皮卡车是为了消费者。消费者是Robin Hood的一部分。
So I heard this and I just, okay, I got it. I had asked him, why are you creating the badger? He was doing the premise of Nikola was they would have, they would rent trucks to anheiser bush by the mile, trucking as a service and they would have a complete stack of, I don't know, hydrogen, electric, everything. But then they released a badger to compete with the F-150, Nikola and the cyber truck. And he explains to me that he's doing this to bait Robin Hood in my estimation.
所以我听到这个后，我就明白了。我曾经问过他，为什么要制造这款坏ger卡车。他的计划是，他的公司Nikola会以每英里的价格向百威公司出租卡车，提供一种“卡车即服务”的模式，而且会拥有一整套不管是氢能还是电动技术的解决方案。但是后来，他们推出了一款名为坏ger的车型，与福特F-150、Nikola和特斯拉的CyberTruck竞争。他解释说，他这样做是为了吸引Robin Hood平台上的投资者，这只是我自己的理解。
I'm using the term bait, but to get retail investors to buy the stock and he says to make a trillion dollar market cap company. Yeah, he specifically says that he's like, he's trying to do Apple, like people invested Apple because they love their products. People will love this product. They'll invest in me. My understanding is black flip was used in the criminal case against me. Wow. Yeah. So if you look at the criminal case and somebody in one of our producers, I'm going to have a crowd source producers here. If you want to get extra bonus points from J. Cal, I'll follow you and maybe I'll send you a twist mug or something. If you correct us or do research in advance, there'd be some kind of benefit. I don't know what it is yet. We'll brainstorm it. But he, the kindest interpretation here was he wanted to raise awareness. I don't think so. I don't know how anybody could ever justify what he said. It was absolutely clear to me that he was trying to manipulate or bait. I don't know what the word is. I'm trying to think of a good word here. Yeah. I'll fill in US Attorney Damien Williams has had this to say, quote Trevor Milton lied to investors again and again on social media, on television, on podcasts and in print. So that seems to be an explicit shout out to appearances just like that one we saw on this week at Star Trek. My understanding is they played the clip in the courtroom. Yeah. That was crazy. That would make sense if he's going in his big comment. He's like, this little, these lies happened on podcast. Yeah, that would be part of his case would be showing.
我用“诱饵”这个词，是为了吸引散户投资者购买股票，他说是为了打造一个市值一万亿的公司。是的，他明确地表示，他想做一个像苹果那样的公司：人们因为喜欢苹果的产品而投资苹果，人们会喜爱这个产品，并投资我。据我了解，“black flip”在针对我的刑事案件中被使用。哇。是的，如果你查看刑事案件，我们的某个制作人，我会让大家参与制作，如果有人想从J. Cal那里获得额外的积分，我会关注你，也许我会寄给你一个Twist马克杯之类的东西，如果你指出了我们的错误或者提前做了研究，你将获得某种回报。我还不知道具体是什么，我们会一起想出好主意的。但是，他这样做最善意的解释是为了提高知名度，我不这么认为。我不知道如何能为他说的话辩解。对我来说，他在试图操纵或诱骗是显而易见的。我在想一个合适的词。嗯，我补充说，美国检察官达米安·威廉姆斯曾这样说过：“特雷弗·米尔顿在社交媒体、电视、播客和印刷品上一次又一次地对投资者撒谎。”所以，这似乎明确提到了他在《星际迷航周》那样的外出演讲。据我了解，他们在法庭上播放了这段视频。 是的，这很疯狂。如果他在做重要评论时，这些谎言是发生在播客上的，那会成为他案件的一部分证据。
Here's one of those podcast. Yeah. I think it's gross when people do this kind of stuff. Is he out of jail? I think he's out of jail and the company's out of business. Yeah. I think he did three years of like supervised, I don't even know if he was in like federal prison or if it was just like house arrest or something, but oh no, four year prison sentence. So maybe he's not out yet. I just want to let founders know the system is rigged for founders in the United States. That's why every founder in the world wants to come here. The system is so rigged in your favor already. You can build a company here. Fail magnificently. Go down like humane did blowing hundreds of millions of dollars. Have your products shut down. You know what the next discussion is? What's your next idea? When somebody fails in our portfolio, I say to them where they have like an aquaire and Raoul from super humans, a perfect example. He did a company called report if he sold it to LinkedIn, you know, he tripled our money. I put in 25 or 50 K. I got back 150 K. I was kind of bummed because I wanted it to. He had some big plans that I thought were very interesting.
这是其中一个播客的内容。是的，我觉得人们做这种事情挺恶心的。他出狱了吗？我觉得他出狱了，而且公司也倒闭了。是啊，我记得他好像被判了三年类似监督管理的刑期，我也不知道他是在联邦监狱还是只是软禁之类的，不过哦对，是四年监禁。所以也许他还没有出来。我只是想让创业者知道，美国的体制对创业者特别有利。这就是为什么世界上所有的创业者都想来这里。这个系统已经为你们倾斜了。你可以在这里创办一家公司，即使是彻底失败，比如像某公司那样烧掉上亿美元，产品被迫停产。你知道接下来的讨论是什么吗？你的下一个想法。当我们投资组合中的某个公司失败时，我会问他们下一个想法是什么，比如 Raoul from Superhuman。他之前的公司 Reportive 卖给了 LinkedIn，我的投资翻了三倍。我投了 2.5 万或者 5 万美金，拿回了 15 万。虽然我有点遗憾，因为我对他的某些大计划很感兴趣。
Well, it's very short. I said, I'm okay with this because you know, the major investors or all investors, you got to get them to sign here. Like, okay, I'm willing to sell my share. So, you know, it's that moment in time, hey, we're selling. It didn't work out as well as we wanted to, but I need you to sign this piece of paper that says you're not going to sue or you're cool with the sale so that the other person is cool with the acquisition. You want to get what's called anonymous consent for the sale.
好的，这很简短。我说，我同意这样做，因为你知道，主要投资者或所有投资者都需要在这里签字。就像，好吧，我愿意出售我的股份。所以，你知道吗，就是那个时候，我们要出售。事情没有我们想象的那么顺利，但我需要你签这份文件，表示你不会起诉或者你同意这次出售，以便对方对这次收购感到满意。你需要获得所谓的匿名同意来完成这次出售。
And so all shareholders, you want ideally all shareholders to do it. If not, you got to get the majority and then you pull the minority shareholders who are not willing to sell and they have no choice. I said to him, just please promise me that when you do your next company, I'll be the first phone call that you get. I kid you're not two years later. He texts me on a Sunday. I said, where are you right now? I can't wait to hear the idea. He said, you know, I'm a noe or whatever. I said, I'm in Pac Heights or a cow Hollow. I'm getting bagels. I'll meet you at the house. How quickly can you get here? He said, I'll be there at 11. I went and got bagels. We sat there. He pitched me on a Gmail competitor. That one is superhuman. I just looked at my returns for superhuman for my first fund by Lord. If I saw my shares right now, I would return. I think, I don't know, maybe another two time one or two times. Everything on the valuation I got, maybe one even to three times because it's, you know, valuations have gone up and down. It's been an incredible investment. What is the second time? The second time third time founders, they always do great. We actually have a story about superhuman ready to go today. You've done that. I didn't know that. Masterful segue and twist history without even knowing it.
所有股东，都希望理想情况下所有股东都参与。如果不行，你得争取多数股东，然后对不愿意出售的少数股东进行拖拽，他们别无选择。我跟他说，下次你成立新公司时，一定要第一个给我打电话。我没开玩笑，两年后，他星期天给我发短信。我问他现在在哪，我迫不及待想听他的想法。他说：“我在Noe Valley或者什么地方。”我说我在Pac Heights或者Cow Hollow，正在买百吉饼。我会在家等你，你能多快到？他说他11点能到。我去买了百吉饼，我们坐下来，他向我展示了一个Gmail竞争对手的计划，就是后来成为Superhuman的项目。最近我查看了我首个基金中Superhuman的回报，天啊，如果我现在卖出股份，我想我可能会获得1到2倍，甚至1到3倍的回报，因为估值波动，这是一笔难以置信的投资。二次或三次创业的创始人总是表现出色。实际上，我们今天有个关于Superhuman的故事要分享。你完成了。我都不知道，这真是个高明的转折和引导。
Superhuman, they released a video introducing new AI features aiming to help users better organize and categorize their emails. Some of these features include auto labeling. The AI will sort your emails into categories for you. You can even create custom categories that you'd like the, it just sorted to auto archive, instantly hiding emails so they don't clutter your inbox. AI follow ups, they'll let you know, hey, you didn't respond to this one yet. And even auto draft a follow up in your voice. Split inbox upgrade. You can use AI labels alongside existing filters to split your inbox into different groups to make things easier for you. And coming soon, they want to auto draft full replies and even schedule meetings for you based on your calendar, all working sort of automatically in the background.
Superhuman发布了一段视频，介绍了其新推出的AI功能，旨在帮助用户更好地整理和分类电子邮件。其中一些功能包括自动标签，AI可以为你自动将邮件分类。你甚至可以创建自定义类别，AI会按照你的需求进行自动归档，立刻隐藏邮件，以防止收件箱变得混乱。AI跟进功能会提醒你哪些邮件尚未回复，甚至可以模仿你的语气自动撰写跟进行邮件。分拆收件箱升级，你可以利用AI标签与现有筛选器一起，将收件箱拆分成不同组群，让操作更为便利。此外，即将推出的功能还包括自动撰写完整回复邮件，甚至根据你的日历自动安排会议，这些都在后台自动运行。
We do have a little clip from Raghu, introducing some of these new ideas. Oh, looking good. You got the leather jacket. Now constantly working beside you, organizing your inbox, making sure you never drop the call, writing, and if you want sending fully written emails on your behalf, it can even execute complete workflows. End to end. Amazing. I mean, this is the Holy Grail. He's a, he's very good on camera. Whoa. Like we were saying before. He is now. He is now. Very polished presentation there. And I think that, you know, I invited him to come on the part. So I think he's coming on the part next Wednesday. Correct. And I think Vlad from Robinhood is going to come on soon. Also correct. We're going to. We got a lot of cool bookings like in, in process behind the scenes where we're going on some work.
我们这儿有一段来自拉古的小片段，介绍了一些新的想法。哦，看起来不错。他穿着皮夹克。这个工具可以一直在你身边工作，帮你整理收件箱，确保你不会掉线，甚至可以为你写好并发送完整的电子邮件，还能执行完整的工作流程。太惊人了。我是说，这就是梦寐以求的。他在镜头前表现得很好。哇，就像我们之前说的。他现在真的很厉害。他的演示非常专业。我邀请他来参加节目，所以我想他下周三会来参加。对的。而且我认为Robinhood的弗拉德也会很快来参加。也是对的。我们正在幕后安排很多很酷的嘉宾。
Well, here's the thing. And it's interesting that those two are both coming on next Wednesday. So we got big Wednesdays, big Wednesday energy, big hump day. Yeah. I mean, that's like two all stars. And what I'll say about both of them, I don't know if we're going to overlap them on the live show. It might be good to overlap them for five or 10 minutes to ask them a question. Both of these individuals are obsessed with product and Vlad. When you look at Robinhood, world class design and product velocity and a customer obsession, and you look at Raoul from superhuman customer obsession, unbelievable world class design, and they just have product velocity. These are three of the things in my playbook for investing in companies. Product and customer obsessed individuals.
好的，事情是这样的。很有趣的是，他们两个都将在下周三出现。所以，我们有一个重要的周三，一种特别的周三能量，就像“冲刺日”一样。我是说，他们就像两位全明星。我想说的是，我还不知道我们是否会在直播节目中让他们的时间有重叠。也许让他们重叠五到十分钟来问一个问题会很好。这两个人都对产品充满热情。看看Vlad，他带领的Robinhood拥有世界级的设计、快速的产品迭代和顾客至上的理念；再看看Raoul，他的Superhuman同样是顾客至上，拥有令人难以置信的世界级设计，并且产品迭代迅速。这些都是我投资公司时的三个关键因素：对产品和客户有极大热情的人。
I'll just say customer obsessed because that leads to product. So if you're customer obsessed, world class design and product velocity, these three things, I don't think you can lose in your lifetime if you have these three. How do I know this? I've always had them. You've worked with me one. How much of a design snob am I? How often do I'm like, this design needs to be better? A lot. You're always thinking about that every time something's really like a lot of companies I work for. You kind of come up with, here's how the thumbnails look. Here's how the blog posts look. Here's how the descriptions are written. Right. And then that's it. It's automated. People are just doing it from then on. When you work for a Jason company, every time you do a new post, it's like, let's take a beat. Is this as good as it could be? Maybe we replace that line with this one.
我只说以客户为中心，因为这会引领到好的产品。如果你专注于客户，拥有世界级的设计和产品开发速度，这三样东西，我觉得一生中不会失败。为什么我这么确定？因为我一直都有这些。你和我共事过一次。你知道我是多么重视设计吗？我多么常说，这个设计需要改进？很多次。我始终在考虑这一点。我与许多公司合作过，很多情况下，他们会定下来缩略图怎么设计、博客文章怎么呈现、描述怎么写，然后就一直用这个模式，变成自动化的流程。但是在一家像我这样的公司工作时，每次你发布新的内容的时候，都会停下来思考一下：这是否已经做到最好？也许我们可以把这一句话换成另一句。
Why not look at it with a critical line? Let's say I'm channeling the customer right now. Am I confused? What is the point of being here? What's the purpose of this product service blog post tweet? What's the purpose of it? I'm on the start of the show. I said the purpose of this show is to inspire founders and to help them grow their companies. And that's what we focus on. That's the purpose of this. You do have to think with purpose about these things. And this is a very important lesson for founders. If you are not focused on the design of your product, obsessed with your customers, and you're not shipping product on a regular cadence, you're not worthy of venture dollars or running a company you should get out of the way.
为什么不以批判的眼光来看待这个问题呢？假设我现在是在站在顾客的立场上。我感到困惑吗？待在这里的意义是什么？这个产品、服务、博客文章、推文的目的是什么？它的意义何在？开场时我说过，这个节目的目的是激励创业者，并帮助他们的公司成长，这就是我们所关注的重点。这就是节目的用意。你确实需要带着目的去思考这些问题。对于创业者来说，这是一个非常重要的教训。如果你不专注于产品设计，对顾客没有刻骨铭心的关注，或者不定期推出产品，那么你就没有资格获得风险投资，也不适合经营公司，你应该让出位置给别人。
Let somebody else be the CEO and then ask yourself deeply, why can't I get product velocity? Oh, you don't have that chip on your shoulder where you're just absolutely perturbed, angry that things are not getting better in the world. The people who have invested in, who have actually changed the world, have that chip on, they have that anger, they have that fire in their belly that it's got to be better. It's got to be better. And most people in the world, I think, and it's not a criticism of those people necessarily. I'm not saying they're worthless and weak and they don't deserve to exist. They don't just content to punch that clock, collect that check.
让其他人去当CEO，然后认真问自己，为什么我无法提高产品速度？哦，是因为你没有那种肩负重任的紧迫感，没有因为世界没有变好而感到极度不安和愤怒。那些真正改变世界的人有这种紧迫感，他们的内心充满了必须要做得更好的怒火和激情。大多数世上的人，我认为，并不是说要批评他们，也不是说他们没有价值或者软弱无能，而只是对完成日常工作、领取工资心满意足。
And then there's other things in their life that I'm sure they're passionate about. Some people might be passionate about beer, football, family, horseback riding, guns, whatever. Mazeltov, my best suggestion for a career is if you find yourself, God, you find yourself not having that passion, then look at what you're passionate about off duty and make that your startup. If you're passionate about horseback riding when you're working at your desk, you're just thinking about the horseback running, quit that job, shut that startup down, pivot it, and then go work on what you're actually obsessed with. And shout out to my friend, Roel, who just replied to us on X.
然后，在他们的生活中还有其他事情，我相信他们对这些事情充满热情。有些人可能对啤酒、足球、家庭、骑马、枪支等充满热爱。祝好运！我的职业建议是，如果发现在工作中没有那种热情，那就看看你在业余时间对什么充满热情，然后把它变成你的创业项目。如果你在办公桌前工作时总想着骑马，那就辞掉这份工作，关闭那个创业项目，转而投入到你真正痴迷的事情上。顺便感谢我的朋友Roel，他刚刚在X上回复了我们。
Oh, nice. Very nice. I guess somebody live, I guess we're live tweeting the show now a bit too. It's part of long-being here. We've been looking at the show with fresh eyes. I'm like, why don't we live tweet this? And like mentioned, who we're talking about, Roel's amazing. And I'm not good at today. That's Maddie behind the scenes. Thank you. Good. Maddie's like, Maddie's got great potential and co-host the show. That's not possible. You want to start up guessing game? Do you want to do one more story? Oh, it's back. Guess the fake startup is back. I guess the fake startup for you.
哦，真好，非常好。我猜有人在直播这个节目，我想我们现在也在进行直播推文。这是我们长期在这里的一部分。我们一直在用新的视角看这个节目。我想，为什么不直播推特这个呢？比如提到我们在讨论谁，Roel非常了不起。不过我今天不太在状态。那是在幕后工作的Maddie，谢谢你。不错。Maddie有很好的潜力，可以共同主持这个节目。那是不可能的。你想玩猜谜游戏吗？你想再讲一个故事吗？哦，回来了。猜假的初创公司又回来了。我来为你猜一猜这个假的初创公司。
You want to jump in. I'm going to describe giving you the log line in a basic description of three startups, two of these startups are real. You could go invest in them. You could go look at their websites. They exist. They are real companies. One of these startups I made up with my own mind and it does not exist on any level.
你想参与进来。我要向你描述三个创业公司的大致情况，给你一个简单的介绍。这三个创业公司中，有两个是真实存在的。你可以投资它们，查看它们的网站，它们是真实存在的公司。而其中一个创业公司则是我凭空想象出来的，不存在于任何层面。
We want you and the folks watching at home, everybody, I'm going to give you a chance. I'm going to describe all three startups. You let us know which one you think is the fake startup. Now, for people who are in the chat, don't ruin it. I'm not looking at the chat right now. I just went full screen. Sorry. Don't see the chat. Don't go look for the startups. Don't go look for the startups. Don't go look for the startups. Don't go look. You're without yourself. Yeah. That's trying to play along. Enjoy it.
我们希望你和正在家观看的观众一起参与，大家，我会给你们一个机会。我会描述三个初创公司，你们告诉我们你们认为哪个是假的。现在，对于聊天室里的朋友们，请不要剧透。我现在没看聊天室，我切换到了全屏模式。抱歉，看不到聊天内容。不要去找那些初创公司，不要去找，不要去找。大家一起互动，享受这个游戏过程。
Okay. Here we go. Startup number one. Okay. Bar go. Bar go. This is the name is a combination of barter and haggle. The idea is that it's going to use AI to help you get the best deal when you're shopping at vintage stores, yard sales when you're in teaking. So you can take a photo of the item you like, search for similar items that have been purchased in your area recently. Go about what other people are paying for them and get a sense for like the relative quality. Like, how does this one I'm looking at stack up against other similar items that people in my area are by? Okay. Bar go. Bar go. Startup number one. Yes. I remember. I remember. yeah. Bar go. Haggle. Bar go.
好的，开始了。创业项目一号：Bar go。Bar go 这个名字结合了“物物交换”（barter）和“讨价还价”（haggle）的意思。这个创业项目的想法是利用人工智能帮助你在古董店、庭院甩卖，或者跳蚤市场购物时获得最佳交易。你可以拍下你喜欢的物品的照片，搜索最近在你所在地区购买过的类似物品，了解其他人支付的价格，并了解这个物品的相对质量，比如你关注的这个物品与其他人在你区域内购买的类似物品相比如何。是的，我记得，非常清楚。嬴价，嬴价。创业项目一号。嬴价。
Start number two. Canary, but spelled can canary. This startup is building the world's first nose to computer neural interface for animals. So a scent detecting animal. This is a neural implant that will interpret and decode everything that they smell. It enhances human and animal working relationships. If you got a bomb sniffing dog and drug sniffing dog, some other kind of animal that a human has to interact with, this makes it easier than having to read the animals. You can get a little written. Here's what the animal is detected. So it understands what's going to be detected. This is gnarling for dog sniffing dogs or fruit sniffing dogs. Right. You have contraband animals that look for contraband. That is out there. That's in out there concept, which is making me lean towards it's real. It's so far out there. Keep going. Alright. Number three, reflect orbital. This is a solar energy startup. They have a master plan. They're going to install a string of giant mirrors into orbit over the earth. These mirrors will then reflect sunlight totally down to solar farms on the plant surface. that will allow them to collect and distribute the hour even overnight. Okay. This has got to be real. I know this because there are so many companies that have been talking about this kind of concept and it's easier to get stuff into space. So I do know that reflecting from space energy is a real vertical.
开始编号二。Canary，但拼写为can canary。这家初创公司正在为动物开发全球首个“鼻子到电脑”的神经接口。具体来说，是一种气味检测动物。这是一种神经植入，可以解释和解码动物所闻到的一切。它能够增强人类与动物的工作关系。如果你有缉毒犬、搜爆犬或其他需要与人类互动的动物，这种技术比直接读取动物更加方便。你会得到一份书面的报告，告诉你动物检测到了什么。这就像为嗅探犬或嗅探水果的狗设计的技术。如果你有寻找违禁品的动物，这是一种超前的理念，让我觉得它可能是真实的，因为这个概念非常创新。继续吧。好的，第三个，Reflect Orbital。这是一家太阳能初创公司。他们有一个宏伟计划，就是在地球轨道上安装一串巨大的镜子。这些镜子可以将阳光全部反射到地面上的太阳能农场，从而让这些农场即使在夜间也能收集和分配阳光。这肯定是真的。我知道有很多公司一直在讨论类似的概念，而且发射物体到太空也越来越容易。因此，我确定从太空反射能量是一个真实的方向。
Now I could be getting double faked by you right now since I you know that I know that would be impressive. That would be very impressive, but it would also be kind of lame because we know there's a whole category here and we would just be taking a real startup and just slapping a different name on it to be like, ha, ha. I think that's real. So that I'm back to the other two. I got a 50 50 shot of that. toothkill versus canary now canary. Spelt wrong that was a key piece of this isn't even that should not be there, but gargle bargo gargle bargo is such a clever name and then one is misspelled. They're both decent concepts actually. I would like a haggling, bartering kind of website. We haven't had a good one of those since a group on there. I like the very old, I feel like when smartphones in their current iteration were new, there were a lot of these like price comparison, take a photo of a product and then get it from it. But nobody ever like nailed it. And it's got the AI angle. So as we were talking about earlier in the program, the why now is there. Right. So why bring group on back now? Well, AI. Why bring eBay back now? AI. Exactly. cause if you think about it, if I like, say I took a picture of, you know, a lamp or something from my house, but if I didn't tag it correctly, the old apps wouldn't be able to find it. Whereas today AI is smart enough to go, Oh. you're looking at a lamp. Here's other lamps. But it feels almost too well constructed. feels very well constructed. It feels so well constructed that it's almost as if somebody constructed it to be so well constructed that it was real, but it did not yet exist.
现在，你可能正在用双重策略来蒙骗我，因为你知道，我如果发现那会很了不起。这确实会很了不起，但也有点无聊。因为我们都知道这有一个完整的类别，而我们只是在一个真实的创业项目上换个名字，说“哈哈，我觉得这是真的”。所以我回到了另外两个选择，我有50%的可能性，选择“toothkill”还是“canary”。不过“canary”拼错了，这就是一个关键点，本不应该有错误，但“gargle bargo”这个名字真是太聪明了，而且还有一个拼写错误。它们都是不错的概念。其实，我很想要一个讨价还价、议价的网站。自从团购网站以来，我们没有一个好的这类网站。我喜欢那些很老的东西，我觉得当智能手机还很新时，有很多这样的价格比较应用，拍下产品的照片，然后买到手。但从来没有人真正做好一个。而这个有人工智能的角度。正如我们在节目中早些时候谈到的，为什么是现在？对吧。所以为什么现在重启团购？因为有AI。为什么现在重启eBay？因为有AI。没错，因为如果你想想，比如说我拍了家里的一盏灯的照片，但如果我没有正确标记它，以前的应用程序就找不到。但现在的AI足够聪明，会识别出，“哦，你在看一盏灯。这里有其他灯。”但这感觉几乎太精心设计了。感觉设计得太过完美，仿佛有人故意设计得如此完美，以至于看起来像是真的，但实际上还不存在。
And I think if you were going to bring, guess the fake startup back after a 10 year hiatus, you'd want to come out with that idea so strong. you're well, constructing the person doing this. You, Lon would want to do it well. And the misspelled one. I think is so obvious that it's going to exist because neural link exists and neural link has a dozen competitors actually just don't hear about them because I think they're behind and and they don't have the same team as a leader as prominent a team. So I think I'm going to go with the fake startup being the one that is in fact the most well constructed. I think the fake startup is Bartle. You are correct. The fake startup is Bartle. Oh my god. Yeah, you nailed it. Boom. I'll tell you this one. I actually, I started with the name. I came up with the name first and then I reverse engineered what the app would be based on how good a name I thought that was. Wow. And if you go watch the old episodes, I mean my ability to deconstruct this. You're very good. You're a tough to stop you. It's tough to stop. Yeah, it's tough to stop. Well, because I think if this was a random panel, they wouldn't know that reflecting sunlight down to the earth's surface for solar farms is real. That sounds made up like when I was looking at the website, I was like, this is science fiction. I can't believe they even. I mean, it basically is a moon wreck or something. It feels like it's a James Bond.
我认为，如果你想在中断十年后重启“猜测假创业公司”这个活动，那么你一定会想要提出一个非常强有力的创意。你要精心构思这个概念，让这个做事的人无懈可击。你，Lon，也一定想做好这一点。而那拼写错误的公司，我觉得很显然会存在，因为Neuralink存在，而且Neuralink实际上有十几个竞争对手，只是我们没听说过他们，因为我觉得他们落后了，没有一个像样的领导团队。所以，我认为那个构建最完善的公司是假创业公司。我认为假公司是Bartle。你说对了，假创业公司是Bartle。天啊，你真厉害！我告诉你，这次我其实是从名字开始的，我先想出了名字，然后根据我觉得这个名字有多好，反向推导出这个应用程序的功能。哇，如果你去看之前的节目，你会发现我解析这些内容的能力很强。你很擅长这件事，很难让你停止。因为我觉得，如果这是一个随机的小组，成员可能不知道将阳光反射回地球表面的技术以用于太阳能发电场是现实存在的。当我查看那个网站的时候，我简直觉得这就是科幻。感觉就像是电影里的情节。
It's a James Bond movie where they're using us like a mirror in space to like, you can target people and blow them up, I think. I mean, it's kind of Death Star S. Yeah, that'll be. Death Star Light to like put an energy beam down to the planet. This is for good. Yeah. The only thing I'm a little worried about is if you miss the relay down at the planet, I mean, some guys turned into a desert. I think this was also Superman three. Yeah. Well, no. With Richard Pryor. Yeah, that is three. You're right. Richard Pryor, Superman three. The thing I like about Superman three is it was such a mess that they made like 15 different edits. You can watch different versions of this, but I just like the fact that Superman gets five o'clock shadow and he gets dark. And like, I think there's a scene where he goes to a diner. That's three. I think that's three.
这是一部詹姆斯·邦德电影，其中他们使用我们就像太空中的镜子一样，可以瞄准并炸掉目标。我觉得这有点像《死星》。是的，会是那种“死星光”来向地球发射能量光束。不过这次是为做好事。唯一让我有点担心的是，如果在地球上没有接收好信号，有些人可能会被变成沙漠。我想这也出现在《超人3》中。没错，和理查德·普赖尔一起演的那部，是第三部。你说对了，《超人3》。我喜欢《超人3》的地方在于它很混乱，所以他们做了大约15个不同的剪辑版本。你可以观看不同的版本，但我就是喜欢超人长出胡渣并变得有些黑暗。我记得好像有一个场景是他去了一家餐馆。那是《超人3》，我觉得。
We're like somebody's mouthing off to him. That might be two. But anyway, there's this diner scene. It's been a while. Somebody's mouthing off to him and he gets his butt kicked. Yeah. But then he comes back. But then he comes back because he's lost his powers in two, right? Is that it? Yeah. No, but that's Superman two, but the bad Kryptonite that turns him into a jerk is Superman three. Right. That's it. Yeah. They're right. The personality shift is three, but losing his powers, that's Lex Luthor in two. And he gets punched. Remember, he gets punched by somebody and he glies. This is Superman two. This is Superman two. That's Superman two. The dire fight scene where he gets beat up is two. Okay. So once again, if you were to rank the trilogy, for me, it's two, one, three. I'm wow. It's crazy. If you say that, I'm a huge Superman two fan. I agree with you. Like, I think that's the best one. It's two, one, three. A lot of people disagree. Oh, by the way, we're going to do it for Star Wars two, one, three. Yeah, I agree with that too. I like to do the best. Richard Lester, the great Richard Lester. And you like Empire the best. I did. And then you do it for Terminator. It's also two, one, three. I like Terminator one a lot. I don't know. I'm not a little bit bored. Why? It's acoustic in raw? Yes. It's more like a horror. It's like sci-fi horror. It's like a star- It's a visual effects history too, is a really important milestone, because it was one of the first computer-generated animation being integrated into live-action scenes. It doesn't hold up for Joss. On the level nobody had ever done before. Like the liquid metal Terminator coming out of the floor. That was super groundbreaking. It doesn't hold up for Joss. Joss is one, two, three. Yeah. Oh, yeah. None of the Joss equals it. I mean, Joss is like, that's one word. So what's real about it didn't come back? So you can't count that.
我们就像有人在对他发牢骚。可能是第二部。不过，不管怎么说，有一场餐馆的戏。已经过了一段时间了。有人在餐馆对他发牢骚，他被揍了一顿。但是他回来后，由于在第二部中失去了力量，对吗？是这样吗？对。但那是《超人2》，而让他变成混蛋的坏氪星石是《超人3》。对，是这样。他们说得对，性格转变发生在第三部，但失去能力是卢瑟在第二部中干的。他被人打了一拳。记得吗，他被人打了一拳，然后滑了出去。这是《超人2》。对，那场餐馆打斗戏，他被揍得很惨，是第二部。好吧。所以如果要排这三部曲的顺序，对我而言，是二、一、三。哇，这有点疯狂。我是《超人2》的忠实粉丝。我同意你的看法，我觉得那是最好的一部。是二、一、三。很多人不同意。顺便说一下，我们要对《星球大战》做排名，也是二、一、三。我也同意。我喜欢第二部最好。是啊，理查德·莱斯特很伟大。而你最喜欢《帝国反击战》。是的。然后是《终结者》系列，也是二、一、三。我很喜欢《终结者1》。我不知道，我有点感到无聊。为什么？因为它是原声的？是的，更像恐怖片。是科幻恐怖片。这也是视觉特效史上的一个重要里程碑，因为它是将电脑生成动画融入真人场景的第一次尝试。在这之前从未有人这样做过，就像液态金属终结者从地板出来一样，那是非常突破性的。而《大白鲨》就不尽如人意。是的。所有的《大白鲨》续集都不如原作。我是说，《大白鲨》就是一个词。所以它的真实感没有回来，你不能算在内。
Yeah. I've never done this for the Alien series. We'll do more of this kind of stuff now that lones back, because people like this kind of stuff. All right, everybody. Couple of programming notes. Long will be with us again Friday and next week. While Alex is out on the town. And my lord, is it right? Is Alien two, one, three? We'll have to get back to you. Alien is definitely, I think Alien's for sure too, one, three. But there's four and then there's all those other sequels. Yeah, but we're just doing the first three here. You're just talking about it. I actually like Alien three more than most people. David Fincher did that one, but the effects were not. It doesn't hold up visually as well as the other one. We'll see everybody on Friday. Bye-bye.
好的。我从来没有为《异形》系列做过这些。现在Lone回来了，我们会多做这种事情，因为大家喜欢。好吧，各位，一些节目预告。Long会在周五和下周再次加入我们，而Alex则外出骑行。天哪，这是对的吗？异形二，一，三？我们还得确认一下。我觉得《异形》的顺序应该是二，一，三。不过有四部，还有其他一些续集。我们这次只讨论前三部。我其实比大多数人更喜欢《异形3》。尽管那部由大卫·芬奇执导，但特效不如其他几部那么出色。我们周五再见。再见。