Norges Bank’s Nicolai Tangen on running the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund

But when you take a longer time, you make fewer decisions. The fewer decisions you make, the better that tend to be. And if you make one decision a month, it tends to be better if you make ten a day. Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to another session of Goldman Sachs Talks. I'm delighted to be joined today by the CEO of Nor just Bank Investment Management, Nikolai Tandon. So first of all, let's welcome Nikolai to Goldman Sachs. So Nikolai is responsible for the management of the government pension fund. It's the world's largest self-enwar fund, owning about 1.4% of the world's listed companies. Nikolai also runs the daily operations of Nor just Bank investment management. He was previously the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of AKO Capital, one of Europe's top investment management firms. Nikolai founded AKO Capital and also established the AKO Foundation, which aims to support education, promote the arts and combat climate change. We're obviously going to talk to Nikolai about Nor just Bank, how investments can drive change, leadership, and what he's learned from some of the top leaders in the world from your podcast. So I'm looking forward to talking about that. So if it's okay, we're going to kind of jump right in. So, okay. Well, so you're coming up on your fifth year anniversary as the CEO of Nor just Bank Investment Management, Norway's $1.7 trillion investment fund. And the fund is up 60% since you took over in 2020. Talk about the responsibility of stewarding a pool of capital this large.

当你花更长时间决策时，你做出的决定会更少。做的决定越少，通常质量越高。如果你每月做一个决定，通常会比每天做十个决定更好。下午好，欢迎大家参加另一场高盛对话。很高兴今天能与Nor just Bank Investment Management的CEO尼古拉∙坦登一起加入。首先，让我们欢迎尼古拉来到高盛。尼古拉负责管理政府养老基金，这是全球最大的主权财富基金，拥有全球约1.4%的上市公司股份。他还负责Nor just Bank Investment Management的日常运营。之前，他是AKO资本的首席执行官和首席投资官，AKO资本是欧洲顶尖投资管理公司之一。尼古拉创立了AKO资本，并设立了AKO基金会，旨在支持教育、推动艺术和应对气候变化。我们将与尼古拉探讨Nor just Bank、投资如何推动变革、领导力，以及他从世界顶尖领导者中学到的经验。我很期待谈论这些话题。如果可以，我们就直接进入主题。好的，您即将迎来担任Nor just Bank Investment Management首席执行官五周年的纪念日，这是挪威价值1.7万亿美元的投资基金。自从您在2020年接手以来，基金增长了60%。谈谈管理如此巨额资本的责任感吧。

Talk a little bit about how you kind of think about that responsibility and how it's kind of framed the way you've tried to set this up over these five years. It's a big responsibility because it's such a kind of big fund for a very small country. And despite we only use two and a half percent of the fund every year, it provides more than 20% of the state budget. And we have on our website a ticker, which is the live value of the fund, and is updated 13 times per second. So pretty kind of live. And it's the most watched number in the country. So everybody is focusing in on it. So big responsibility. But it's made easier by the fact that we have a mandate, a really, really good mandate, which is basically made by the Minister of Finance, and it's got broadly politically anchored. So all the political parties agree with what we're doing. It means that they will not change their mind at the wrong time. And so that's good. And then also, of course, I don't do it on my own. We have 700 people, a really, really great team. And then, yes, there were a lot of zeros in 19,000 billion Norwegian grown-er. But you don't really think about those numbers. You think about doing the right thing, doing the right processes, and then the numbers will follow. Yeah.

谈谈你对这种责任的看法，以及这在过去五年里如何影响了你的工作。这是一项很大的责任，因为这是一个庞大的基金，而我们国家很小。虽然我们每年只动用基金的2.5%，但这已经提供了超过20%的政府预算。我们网站上有一个实时更新的基金数值，每秒更新13次，非常实时。这是全国最受关注的数字，所以大家都很关注它。因此，这责任很大。但好在我们有一个很好的使命，由财政部长制定，且得到了广泛的政治支持。所有政党都同意我们的做法，这意味着他们不会在关键时刻改变主意，这很好。当然，我不是一个人在做这件事。我们有一个由700人组成的优秀团队。此外，虽然我们管理着一个高达19000亿挪威克朗的巨额基金，但你不会仅仅想着那些数字，而是专注于做好正确的事情，选择正确的流程，然后数字自然会跟上。

I know that some of the guiding principles are to be long-term, oriented, and diversified. But talk a little bit about how you decide where to invest, and how do you decide where not to invest. Yeah. So again, the Ministry has a dis-mandate. But at the same time, we have to do it in an ethical way. So we have a separate Council of Ethics, which decides where we cannot invest. We don't invest in coal, weapons, and so on. And there are some countries where we don't invest. And so that's kind of the broad picture. We are very diversified. We own some 9,000 companies across the whole world. In Europe, we own a bit more, close to 2.5% to 3%. Across Europe. Yeah.

我知道一些指导原则是要注重长期性和多样化。但能聊聊你是如何决定投资和不投资的地方吗？好的。首先，部门有一个明确的任务，但同时，我们也必须以合乎道德的方式进行。因此，我们有一个独立的道德委员会，负责决定哪些领域我们不能投资。我们不投资于煤炭、武器等行业，也有一些国家是我们不投资的地方。这就是大致情况。我们的投资非常多元化，在全球拥有大约9,000家企业。在欧洲，我们持有的股份稍多一些，占欧洲市场的2.5%到3%左右。

Yeah. So I know that one of the things that you've said repeatedly is you really aim to be the most transparent investment fund in the world. Talk a little bit about the benefits of transparency when you're running an investment pool like this, and how you think about transparency as a principle. Yeah. To me, transparency is like totally key. Transparency increases trust. You know, if the more your clients can see, the more they trust you. We disclose every holding we have twice a year. And we are the most transparent fund in the world. There is actually a world championship in transparency. Is there? Yeah. And for a period of time, didn't know that. That's the sport I'm doing. Now, for a while, the Canadians were number one, and I thought, hey, find that the Canadians beat us in ISOC. But it's not fine that they beat us in transparency. I don't know that it's really fine that they beat you in ISOC. But so, last year for the first time, we became the world champion. That's awesome.

好的。我知道你多次表示希望成为全球最透明的投资基金。能谈谈在管理这样的投资池时，透明度的好处，以及你如何看待透明度这个原则吗？ 对我来说，透明度是至关重要的。透明度能够增加信任。客户看到得越多，他们对你的信任就越多。我们每年会公开两次所有持仓信息，我们是全球最透明的基金。有一个全球透明度竞赛。真的吗？有的，一段时间里，我都不知道这是我在做的事情。过去有段时间，加拿大人是第一名，我觉得，加拿大人在冰球上打败我们可以接受，但在透明度上打败我们就不行了。我也不太觉得他们在冰球上打败你很好。不过，去年我们首次成为冠军。这太棒了。

I want to talk a little bit about climate, because I know it's an area of focus for you. Talk a little bit about the private sector, the world the private sector should play, the world investors play, when it comes to the environment and sustainability. Do you see, how do you think about the long-term investment opportunity around these long cycle transition issues? Well, so we care about climate because it is a financial risk. We see it now in a lot of the commodity prices. You see it in coffee, olive oil, orange juice, all these kinds of things, where the prices are going up, because harvests are worse because of the climate. So, climate and the financial market is linked in a different way than it has been before. So, we spend a lot of time working with our companies, making sure they do the right thing on climate. I appreciate that it's been a backlash in the US. We haven't really seen that to the same extent in Europe, and for sure in Norway, we continue to have the same opinions as we've had before. I think there are investment opportunities in that space as well now, which are better than before. We got the opportunity to invest in renewable infrastructure four years ago, and in the beginning, we were just really, really slow, because we thought the returns were too low, too many people chasing the deals, but now that's changed. So, we think there are better returns in the space. There is a bit more supply, so you can deploy more capital, and we have beefed of the team and doing more than that. And renewable infrastructure specifically? Talk a little.

我想谈谈气候，因为我知道这是你们关注的一个领域。谈谈私营部门在环境和可持续性方面应该扮演的角色，以及投资者在其中的作用。你怎么看待这些长期转型问题带来的投资机会？ 我们关注气候问题，因为它是一个金融风险。我们已经在很多商品价格中看到了这一点。像咖啡、橄榄油、橙汁这些东西，它们的价格在上涨，因为气候问题导致收成变差。所以，气候和金融市场以一种不同于以往的方式联系在一起。因此，我们花了很多时间与公司合作，确保他们在气候问题上采取正确的措施。我了解到在美国对此有一些抵触情绪。在欧洲我们并没有看到如此强烈的反对，而在挪威，我们坚持以往的观点不变。 我认为在这个领域中也有着比以前更好的投资机会。我们在四年前就有机会投资于可再生基础设施，起初我们进展缓慢，因为我们认为回报太低，参与交易的人太多，但情况已经改变。我们认为现在这一领域的回报更好，供应增加，可以投入更多资金。我们已经加强了团队，并做了更多的努力。 那么具体谈谈可再生基础设施方面的情况？

Five years in, kind of frame for me. What are a handful of key accomplishments in these first five years, and what are a handful of the most important learnings? Yeah, so first of all, it's not me, right? It's about the big team. But what are we focusing on? What are we focusing on performance, of course, because without performance, we have no reason to be. And it's very much about learning from mistakes. It's, we've created this investment simulator where all the data from every PM is up in the cloud, and when you want to make a decision, you get it all fed back to you. All your weaknesses, all your bad habits, are you normally selling loses too late? Are you selling winners too early? When you trade, you basically get all these signals fed back to you. And so that's been a big development, which is now starting to change investment behavior. It's really cool, very good. We're also working on getting people to be more contrarian in the trades they do, and more long-term. The most difficult thing is to be long-term. Why is it so difficult? Why?

五年过去了，总结一下对我的影响。在这五年中，有哪些关键的成就？又有哪些重要的经验教训呢？是的，首先，这不是我一个人的功劳，而是整个团队的努力。那么我们在关注什么呢？当然是绩效，因为没有好的绩效，我们就没有存在的理由。而且非常重要的是从错误中学习。我们创建了一个投资模拟器，将每位项目经理的所有数据上传到云端，当需要做出决策时，这些数据就会反馈给你。你的弱点、坏习惯，比如是否通常过晚地卖出亏损的投资，或过早卖出盈利的投资等，在交易时都会有这些信号反馈。这项发展已经开始改变投资行为，非常不错，也很有趣。同时，我们也在努力让人们在交易中更加反向思维，更注重长期投资。最困难的是始终坚持长期投资。为什么这么难呢？为什么？

You come to work on a Monday, and it's just like you come home, and you tell your husband, you know, he asks you, what did you do today? Well, I did nothing. You know, Tuesday, nothing. Wednesday, nothing. Thursday, nothing. You don't feel great about it. And so sometimes the best thing is not to do very much, but it's very profitable. You know, compounding is just amazing. Confounding is a powerful thing. It's unbelievable. That's what we're doing on investment side. On the people side, more development of people, we are recruiting, we are recruiting better people. On the communication side, much more transparency, more internal communication, more external communication, and then operational robustness better, and, you know, more focusing on cyber. So we just done a lot of things.

星期一上班时，就像回家一样，你告诉你的丈夫，他问你今天做了什么。你说，我什么都没做。星期二，什么都没做。星期三，什么都没做。星期四，还是没做什么。这种感觉不是很好。但是有时候，少做些事情反而是最有利可图的。复利就是这样一种神奇的东西，令人难以置信。这就是我们在投资方面所做的。 在人事方面，我们更加注重人员的发展，不断招募和吸引更优秀的人才。在沟通方面，我们提高了透明度，加强了内部和外部的沟通。此外，在运营上，我们提升了稳健性，并更加关注网络安全。所以，我们确实做了很多工作。

Your shareholder, you mentioned 9,000 companies. I know Goldman Sachs is one of those companies. We appreciate that. We thank you for all your hard work. We're working hard. That's because you guys are working hard. We're working hard. We're working hard. What, um, talk a little bit about investor dialogue. What makes for an effective investor dialogue, and how important is investor dialogue for you with respect to the companies? It's very, very important. We have more than 3,000 meetings a year with our companies. We, you know, we turn up at nearly 10,000 AGMs. We vote on 120,000 proposals. We've got a big machinery doing this. I think the key is to have very clear expectations, and so we have this set up in, set out in expectation documents. It's important to be consistent over time. So that you, as a CEO, know that we are not like changing our mind all the time.

您的股东中提到了9,000家公司，我知道高盛是其中之一。对此我们表示感谢，并感谢您辛勤的工作。我们努力工作，这也是因为你们在努力工作。请谈谈投资者对话的重要性以及如何使其更有效。这对我们来说非常重要。我们每年与公司进行超过3,000次会议，出席近10,000次股东大会，并对120,000个提案进行投票。我们有一套庞大的体系在运作。我认为关键在于要有非常明确的期望，因此我们在期望文件中对此进行了设定。随着时间推移，保持一致性也很重要，这样作为首席执行官的您就知道我们不会经常改变立场。

One of the things I've found very interesting about our dialogue with you is, you know, I would say, you know, your team, when they deal with us, they are deep in the weeds, deep in the weeds. I'm really trying to understand how we're thinking about things. Do you, how do you, do you do that by industry sector? Do you do that? How do you do that in the context? Yeah, we have, we have industry sectors. We've got some really strong sectors. I think our banking team is, uh, is really superb. So that's how we do it. Now, you know, there are two ways you can deal with problems as an owner. You can just, you can sell your holding, or you can go into a dialogue. Now, what kind of problem do you solve by selling your holding? Nothing, you know. Let's say now you have a company which is doing, you know, not so good stuff on climate. You sell, everybody sells the holding, what happens? Well, the company ends up in the hands of people who don't care. You know, so it's just not good. It's better to hold it and to talk. And to advocate and to engage. Yeah. It's, it's, it's like when you're, it's not going to have problem at home. You can just kind of sort off, or you can try to fix it. Yeah. That's, they've tried to fix it as a better strategy. Awesome.

我发现与您的对话中非常有趣的一点是，你们团队在与我们合作时，真正深入细节，试图理解我们是如何思考问题的。你们是如何做到这一点的呢？是按行业来划分吗？是的，我们有行业划分，并且在某些领域表现非常出色。我认为我们的银行团队就很优秀，这就是我们的运作方式。 在处理问题时，作为业主有两种方法：要么卖掉持股，要么进行对话。如果选择卖掉持股能解决什么问题呢？什么也解决不了。比如说，如果现在有一家公司在气候方面做得不好，你们都卖掉持股，那么会发生什么呢？公司就会落入不关心这些问题的人手中。所以这并不理想。更好的办法是持有股票，并通过对话、倡导和互动来解决问题。就像在家中解决问题一样，你可以选择逃避或者努力去解决。努力解决问题是更好的策略。太棒了。

Yeah. Listen and understand first. Yeah. Yeah. So in the first half of 2024, your fund post posted $138 billion in profit, largely in kind of the acceleration, a large cap tech. Talk a little bit, let's talk a little bit about AI. Yeah. kind of the future of AI investment. What are some of the risks of concentration in the market?

好的。首先，先听明白。好的。好的。在2024年上半年，你的基金披露了1380亿美元的利润，这主要得益于大盘科技股的加速增长。我们来聊聊人工智能的未来投资。市场集中有哪些风险？

I mean, at the moment, you know, when you look at kind of the large cap indexes and what's going on, you have enormous concentration. And if you're not, you know, over weighted to this handful of stocks, you're going to unperform. Talk a little bit about how you're thinking about it. Yeah. It's a, it's a level of concentration we've never seen before, right? As you know, hugely concentrated in very few names. The big problem here in my mind is that they're all linked into the same geopolitical risk.

我的意思是，现在你看那些大盘指数的情况，会发现它们高度集中。如果你没有在这些少数股票上增加权重，那么你的表现可能会不如人意。可以谈谈你对此的看法。这种集中度是我们以前从未见过的，对吧？这些股票高度集中在极少数几家公司上。在我看来，最大的问题是它们都与同样的地缘政治风险相关联。

And so we have not seen before one, the concentration we've seen to the link with geopolitical risk. And that's just very risky. And so I think the risk in the public market is probably higher than in the private market now. Yeah. Yeah. And in the past, you know, we looked at kind of risks well. Public market, not risky, private market, very risky. I think perhaps it's changed. So tell us, did you raise the private market?

我们以前没有见过这样的情况，一个是高集中度，另一个是与地缘政治风险的联系。这非常危险。因此，我认为现在公共市场的风险可能比私人市场更高。是的，是的。过去，我们觉得公共市场不太危险，私人市场非常危险。我认为这种情况可能已经改变。所以，请告诉我们，你是否对私人市场进行了提升？

Talk a little bit about kind of, you know, private market. Talk a little bit about the fact that, you know, obviously in public markets, we have a narrowing of listing companies. We also, I think, you know, given the burden of operating, you know, as a public company, you know, we have people waiting longer to take markets, you know, take companies, the public market. There's more availability of capital in a private form.

谈谈私募市场。显然，在公开市场上，上市公司的数量正在减少。考虑到作为公开公司的运营压力，很多公司选择等更久才进入公开市场。而且，私募市场的资金供应更加充足。

How do you think about the private, the private markets? How do you think about the growth of private capital? Where do you think we are, you know, more secular growth? Well, I think it's very interesting, you know, you now have, supposedly, the number of listed companies in the US has gone from 8,000 to 4,000. You're seeing the same development in Europe, you're seeing it pretty much all over the place.

你怎么看待私人市场和私人资本的增长？你觉得我们现在处在一个怎样的长期增长环境中？我认为这很有趣，据说美国上市公司的数量已经从8,000减少到4,000。欧洲也出现了类似的发展趋势，几乎在全球范围内都是如此。

Private market companies stay private for longer, they get bigger, and so on. So, I mean, unfortunately, it's a space where we are not operating. Yeah. So it's not in our mandate to be in the private market. But there is a political process, so it may change, but not for now. You know, I think ideally, one should be in both.

私营市场的公司存续时间更长，规模变得更大，等等。因此，我的意思是，不幸的是，这是一个我们不参与的领域。目前，我们的任务并不包括进入私营市场。但是，有一个政治程序，所以这可能会改变，但现在还没有。我认为理想情况下，应该同时参与这两个市场。

Six percent annual returns, that kind of steadiness, that reliability has earned enormous trust from the people of Norway. Some critics probably say you can perform at a higher rate. Yeah. How do you think about that? How do you, because there's no question, you know, risk reward has to be balanced when you think about long-term returns.

每年6%的回报率，这种稳定性和可靠性赢得了挪威民众的巨大信任。有些批评者可能会说，你可以获得更高的收益率。是的。你怎么看待这个问题？因为毫无疑问，在考虑长期回报时，必须平衡风险和收益。

How do you cut a benchmark? How do you think about that? Yeah, again, coming back to this mandate that we have for the Ministry, which in broad terms, you know, lay out how we should be invested. We have roughly 70 percent in equities, 30 percent in bonds. We have a real estate portfolio where we got like 1,000 properties around the world.

如何对基准进行切分？你是怎么考虑这个问题的？是的，回到我们为某个部门制定的这个任务，在总体上说明了我们的投资方向。我们大约70%的投资是在股票，30%在债券。我们还有一个房地产投资组合，大约在全球拥有1000处房产。

We got quite a lot of ownership on, you know, airline Manhattan as well. So, the returns could have been higher historically had we been in private markets, but, you know, we are not. You know, we have compounded between six and seven percent for the last 28 years, and that's been good.

我们在曼哈顿航空公司也有相当多的所有权。因此，如果我们在私有市场中，历史上的回报可能会更高，但事实是我们并不在那里。在过去的28年里，我们的回报率一直在6%到7%之间，这样的表现一直不错。

So you look at the value of the fund now. One third of the fund is the value of money that the government has put in, and two thirds is returns. Yeah. So it's quite amazing. In a way, we found oil twice. One on Norwegian shelf, second time in financial markets. Yeah. When you think about, um, kind of a risk award, you know, over a long period of time, and you think about compounding, you know, in particular, when you want a great asset, we own it forever, do you feel like if you really had an incredible asset that you say, we're going to own this for 50 years?

所以你现在看看这个基金的价值。基金的三分之一是政府投入的资金，而三分之二是收益。是的，这很令人惊讶。在某种意义上，我们就像发现了两次石油：一次是在挪威的海域，另一次是在金融市场。是的。当你考虑长期的风险回报，尤其是复利效应时，如果有一个非常优秀的资产，你会觉得如果我们拥有这个资产50年会怎么样呢？

Personally, yes. That's the way I would construct a portfolio. Now, when you have portfolio managers who are incentivized on, let's say, three-year rolling basis, it's difficult to get people not to trade. Very much. And so we try to extend the time horizon on this. We are probably going to put in a five-year element in the comp, which I think you need to do to get people to kind of take a longer view.

个人来说，是的。这就是我构建投资组合的方式。但是，当投资组合经理的激励机制是基于例如三年滚动周期的话，就很难让他们不要频繁交易。因此，我们会尽量延长这个时间范围。我们可能会在薪酬中加入五年的因素，我认为这样做是为了让人们从更长远的角度看问题。

A longer to view, because you take a longer to view, you make fewer decisions. The fewer decisions you make, the better that tend to be. You know, if you make one decision a month, it tends to be better if you make 10 a day, right? Yeah. Sure. You save, of course, I mean, of course, you would hate to hear this, but you save trading commission.

如果花更长时间来看问题，因为你花了更长时间来看，所以做出的决定就会更少。你做的决定越少，通常这些决定就会越好。你知道的，如果你每个月只做一个决定，那通常要比每天做十个决定要好，对吧？是的，没错。这样你还节省了，当然你可能不愿意听到这个，但你确实节省了交易佣金。

And so. I don't really hate to hear it because I think it's fundamentally right. Yeah. You know, I love the fact, though, that there are so many incentive schemes that actually force people to create velocity around capital. Yeah. But I, you know, one of the things that's one of the things I've never really understood is when you think about the way the whole private capital market is structured, it's actually structured to create velocity of capital. And, you know, I think, you know, I think most pension funds, just to take a broad example, not specific to your own, but most pension funds, you know, have much, much longer data liabilities. And so, you know, why, if you're allocating your money to a private equity manager, just pick one, you know, one form of private capital, why would you rather that they own something for four or five years and have an incentive system create velocity around it instead of to try to find they are a great company that can compound 8 to 10 percent. Okay. You want them to own it for 30 years or 40 years. But there's very little. The whole financial market incentive system's not set up to do that. Absolutely. But everything is moving faster. You know, there's more frequent trading. Sure. You know, you'd be surprised to hear it, but over the last 30 years, people talk and walk 10 percent faster. So you measure average speed of walking in a city and, you know, compared to 30 years ago, you got 10 percent faster. I mean, I think I've always been fast to walk. You've always been fast. I think I've always been really really interested. Just as fast now as I did 30 years ago. Yeah. I'm wondering about the company's shooting. I might talk a little bit slower now because, unfortunately, now people are listening to everything I say. So I've got to talk slower. But, but, but the walking things into people, there's certainly an intensity, especially around markets. There's an intensity that didn't exist 34 years ago. Yeah. It's market. It's all, you know, we are always on, you know, above mobile phones. That's 24-7. More activity. Yeah. 24-7. For sure.

好的，我并不讨厌听到这种说法，因为我认为这在根本上是正确的。是的。我确实很欣赏这么多激励机制迫使人们创造资本流动。不过，我一直不太理解的一件事是，整个私募资本市场的结构实际上是为了创造资本流动。大多数养老金基金有长期的债务责任，所以，举个例子，如果你把资金分配给一个私募股权经理，为什么会希望他们在四五年内创造流动性，而不是找到一个可以长期增值的优秀公司呢？你会希望他们持有30年或40年。但是整个金融市场的激励机制并不是为此而设的。现在一切都在加快，交易更加频繁。过去30年里，人们走路和说话的速度都提高了10%。我一直走得很快，对市场一直很感兴趣。只是现在不得不说得慢一点，因为人们开始注意我说的每句话。不过，在市场上，总有一种以前没有的紧迫感。我们无时无刻不在使用手机，活动更多，24/7不停运转。

Let's let shift gears. You launched this terrific podcast in good company in 2022, all about leadership. I was lucky. The second guest was you. I was the second guest. I was just, I was lucky to be a guest. Thank you for making me your second guest. I didn't realize I was a second guest. It was the first guest. It was the COBP. Oh, but when you came on, you know, it was really cool because, you know, you start this thing. It was a pilot. I didn't know whether he was with Fly or not. And, and bang, you get the CO of Goldman Sachs. Wow. Big deal, you know. So then we thought, hey, this could perhaps be a serious thing. Well, it's the biggest, now it's one of the leading biggest podcast in the world, you know, one of them. And, yeah, it's, it's fun. No, it's a big podcast. But I mean, think about this. Okay. Have anybody, anybody, anybody listen to that? Anybody heard the podcast? yeah. The CEO. What's wrong with the rest of you? Start listening to the podcast.

让我们换个话题。你在2022年推出了一个很棒的播客《良友同行》，主题围绕领导力。很幸运，我是第二位嘉宾。我当时并不知道我是第二位，非常感谢你让我成为你的第二位嘉宾。我好奇谁是第一位，原来是COBP。当你邀请我参加时，这真的很酷，因为你刚开始这个项目，那时候也不确定是否能成功。没想到，你邀请到了高盛的CEO，真是了不起。所以我们觉得这可能会成一个很有影响力的节目。现在，它已经是世界上最大、最受欢迎的播客之一了。很有趣，是个大播客。那么，大家有没有人听过这个播客？有没有人？CEO都听了，其他人怎么回事？快去听这个播客吧！

The CEO of the largest sovereign wealth fund and a significant shareholder in Goldman Sachs calls and says, Hey, will you go on my podcast? Let me think about it. Okay. I mean, that was not, that was not a tough ask. I was really impressed because you responded within five minutes. Okay. Well, I try to be very, very responsive. But let's, let's talk about the podcast. You've interviewed dozens of CEOs at this point, dozens of CEOs. Yeah. What similarities do you see? Yeah, it's very interesting because when you kind of cut them up into pieces and throw them up in the air and see where the land it's, CEOs have a lot of similarities, right? There is a lot of focus on, on grit. There is generally high level of energy. I would say curiosity is very high up on the list. So yeah, they have quite a lot of things in common. Is good leadership changing and evolving? I think it is. I think it is.

全球最大主权财富基金的首席执行官，也是高盛的重要股东给我打电话，说：“嘿，你愿意上我的播客吗？”让我想想，好吧，这个请求不算难。我印象深刻的是你五分钟内就回复了。嗯，我尽量做到反应迅速。那我们来谈谈这个播客吧。你到目前为止采访了几十位CEO，对吧？你发现他们有什么相似之处吗？是的，这很有趣，当你把他们拆解开来分析时，会发现CEO有很多共同点。他们普遍非常注重毅力，通常都有很高的能量水平。我认为好奇心也是非常重要的。所以，他们确实有很多相似的地方。那么，好的领导力是否在改变和发展？我认为确实是这样。

I think there is more focus in on listening skills. There is more on empathy. There is more on generally involving, you know, the people you work with in strategy development and so on. And I think it makes it easier to actually execute. And I also think the empathy element, I think is more important than ever before in a time of AI that we lean on what it is that makes us human. And then I think there is a really interesting thing with the Indian leaders, you know, people with Indian backgrounds because they've kind of broke through the glass ceiling and taken over the whole, you know, Silicon Valley, right?

我认为现在更注重倾听技巧，更强调同理心。在战略发展等方面，更注重让你工作的团队成员参与其中。我觉得这使执行起来更容易。而且我认为，在人工智能时代，同理心比以往任何时候都更重要，因为我们更需要依靠那些使我们人性化的特质。我还认为，印度裔领导者是个非常有趣的现象。他们打破了职业天花板，在某种程度上接管了整个硅谷，对吧？

So what, what is it that they bring? Well, I think there are more in the know in what they're doing. There is something that the firm is bigger than themselves. There is a lot of focus on empathy, you know, such as such an Adela who talks about that. That is a huge empathetic. Very big on that. And that there is no, there is no tradeoff between empathy and execution, you know, it goes hand in hand. So I think leadership is moving. Are there differences in regions? Yes, you know, I suspect US leaders are a bit more extrovert, probably take a bit more risks than we do in Europe. Skated in is positive. Well, I actually think it's yes, it is a positive and

那么，他们到底带来了什么呢？我认为他们在自己所做的事情上掌握了更多信息。他们觉得公司比个人更重要，非常注重同理心，比如像Satya Nadella那样谈论同理心的人。这是一个非常有同情心的观点。他们认为同理心和执行力之间没有冲突，它们是相辅相成的。因此，我认为领导力正在发生变化。地区之间是否存在差异？是的，我猜美国的领导者可能更外向，可能比我们在欧洲愿意承担更多风险。而这种冒险精神是积极的。我实际上认为，是的，这确实是积极的。

it explains part of why we have a bit of a problem in Europe. We don't take enough risks, you know, there is combined with regulation and so on. But the risk appetite and the level of ambition in America is really driving growth. Yeah, the innovation economy here and the willingness of people to start businesses, take risks, innovate, drive growth is definitely contributing to kind of US economic. yeah, absolutely. But also the acceptancy of the fact that you make mistakes. So in Europe is not good to make mistakes. You often don't get as a time. Not good to make mistakes here either. No, but nobody's more accepted. It's just like, hey, we do lots of stuff and of course we make some mistakes. And you can change? Absolutely. And so that's a bit of a cultural difference.

这部分解释了为什么我们在欧洲有些问题。我们冒险不足，你知道的，这还结合了一些法规等等。不过，美国的风险偏好和雄心水平确实推动了经济增长。美国的创新经济和人们创业、冒险、创新、推动增长的意愿确实在促进美国经济发展。是的，绝对是这样。但同时也接受了一个事实，即人们会犯错误。在欧洲，犯错误是不好的。你通常没有机会再尝试。在这里犯错误也不好，但相对来说更被接受。就像，“嘿，我们做很多事情，当然会犯一些错误。”而且你可以改变？当然可以。所以这是一个有点文化上的差异。

yeah. When you look at these leadership lessons, you know, as you talk to different leaders, do you find yourself incorporating it somehow into the way you run the fund? Totally. Can you give a concrete example? I try to integrate all the good stuff I learned. It's really, really interesting, right? I mean, we try to steal everywhere we can. Talk about something. I mean, you should money, but ideas. By the way, you know, imitation is the highest form of learning. Totally. Totally. Talk about some of your favorite guests. What characteristics do they share as leaders? Well, I think, I mean, in addition to you, of course.

当然。当你看看这些领导力课程时，你知道，跟不同的领导者交流后，你会发现自己会把它们以某种方式融入到基金管理中吗？完全如此。你能举个具体的例子吗？我尽量整合我学到的所有好东西。这真的非常有趣，对吧？我指的是，我们尽可能地广泛借鉴。不仅在金钱方面，还有在思想方面。顺便说一下，模仿是最高形式的学习。确实如此。那么谈谈你最喜欢的一些嘉宾吧。他们作为领导者有什么共同的特质？嗯，我觉得，当然除了你之外。

Put me aside. No, I think you can put them into different categories. Of course, speaking to the tech leaders is amazing, right? So you speak to Sam Altman, Jensun Huang, Bill Gates and so on. And they basically look into the future, you know, they see what it looks like, and you learn that. I think some of the people who are from different places than actually finance is quite fun, right? We did Magnus Carlson, the best chess player in the world, comparing chess strategy with investment strategy. It's like, wow, you know, when do you take risks? Do you take more risks after you lost? Or do you take less risk? You know, very different from what we typically do. So just a lot of learnings from that. Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General on geopolitics and so on. And then some of the really long-term thinkers, like the Wallenbergs in Sweden, really interesting. I would say it's perhaps the one thing that characterizes great investors. It's conviction and the ability to be contrarian and not think about what other people think, and then be able to change your mind. And the combination of great stubborn and be able to change your mind really, really rare.

把我放在一边。不，我认为你可以把他们分成不同的类别。当然，与科技领袖交谈是非常棒的，对吧？比如你可以和Sam Altman、黄仁勋、比尔·盖茨等人交流。他们基本上能看到未来的发展，你也能从中学到东西。我认为和一些来自不同领域的人交谈，比如金融界的人，也很有趣。我们曾与世界上最优秀的国际象棋选手马格努斯·卡尔森交流过，把棋局策略与投资策略进行比较。这种交流让人惊叹，你知道什么时候该冒险？是在失败后加大风险，还是减少风险呢？这与我们通常的做法非常不同，因此从中学到了很多。还有斯托尔滕贝格，他是北约秘书长，谈论地缘政治等等。然后也有一些真正考虑长远的思考者，比如瑞典的瓦伦堡家族，真的非常有趣。我会说，或许伟大投资者的一个特征就是信念坚定以及具有逆向思维的能力，不会在意别人怎么想，还能够改变自己的想法。伟大的固执和改变主意的能力结合在一起，真的非常罕见。

That's a great, great way to frame it. What advice can you share about steps leaders should prioritize when they take a new job to lead an organization? I understand when you took this job, you actually kind of had a roadmap or a list of priorities that you wanted to follow. Do you have advice around that? Yeah, it was great. So I got this job. I rang the best sales I've ever met, and I said, hey, I've got this new job. What should I do? I'm like, well, what do you do? That's easy. You first have to talk to a lot of people in the firm. Do it before you start your job. Then you show respect. They need to get to know you, and you need to get to know them. You get more data points, so you make better decisions. They feel included. They feel heard. So that when you make changes, they will be with you.

这真是一个很好的思考方式。对于领导者在新岗位上应该优先考虑哪些步骤，您有什么建议呢？我知道当您接受这份工作时，其实是有一个优先事项的计划或清单的。您对此有什么建议吗？ 是的，这很不错。当我得到这份工作时，我联系了我见过的最优秀的销售人员，我说：“嘿，我有了新工作，我该怎么做？”他说：“这很简单。首先，你要在入职前尽量多与公司的人交流。这样做是表现出尊重。他们需要了解你，你也需要了解他们。你获取更多的信息，这样你就能做出更好的决定。而他们会感到被重视和倾听。当你做出改变时，他们就会支持你。”

Then you put together a leader group. You do not hire people from the old side during your first year. You define your DNA of the firm, and you show everybody else in the firm that you respect what they do. And then you make changes as a combined leadership group. You mustn't do it on your own, because you can trigger what is called the kind of the corporate immune system, where they squeeze you out. So you do it as a combined group. And then you pick a few things, not too many, and don't make them the changes too fast. The people who fail are the people who try to do too much too fast. And so we made changes. And I think twice we felt that we were moving a bit too fast, and we slowed down. But I think that's the way to do it.

然后，你组建一个领导团队。在第一年里，你不要从旧公司招人。你要定义公司的基因，并且向公司里的每个人展示你尊重他们的工作。接着，与领导团队一起做出改变。不要单独行动，因为这样可能会引发所谓的"企业免疫系统"——他们可能会排挤你。因此，应该作为一个团队共同行动。然后，选择一些（但不要太多）事情进行改善，变革的速度也不要太快。那些失败的人通常是因为试图做得太多、太快。所以我们做了改变，有两次我们觉得进展得有点太快了，所以我们放慢了脚步。但我认为这就是该做的方式。

You mentioned grit. Always thought the grit is not just for leadership, but for success in life, in business, the grit is a hugely, hugely valuable personal characteristic. Talk a little bit about how you think about grit and how it plays a role as people approach challenges. It's totally key. It's used to how you cope with things, right? I think it's sometimes difficult to screen for it, but when you hire, you see what people have been doing. So I was interviewing this guy for a summer program. He said, hey, what have you done during your summers? I worked in a bakery. But I'm in seven summers in a row. Yeah. I mean, do you know when you need to wake up to work in a bakery?

你提到了"毅力"这个词。我一直认为毅力不仅仅是领导能力的一部分，而且在生活和商业中取得成功也非常重要，是十分宝贵的个人特质。能不能谈谈你对毅力的看法，以及它在人们应对挑战时发挥的作用？这绝对是关键。它和你如何应对事情息息相关，不是吗？我认为，有时候很难通过面试察觉到这个特质，但在招聘时，你可以通过他们过往的经历来了解。比如，我曾面试一个申请暑期项目的人，我问他“你暑假都做过些什么？”他说他在面包店工作了。连续七个夏天都在是吗？是的。你知道要在面包店工作，得什么时候起床吗？

It's like three in the morning. Super early. Super early. So we tried to find it. And I think we are in a world where there is perhaps a bit less grit than before. The younger generation have, on average, according to the specialists, a bit less grit, because they've been protected by their parents. Parents are taking a lot of the decisions and the problems. And so therefore we have had less problems to cope with. I think it's that's prominent or you think that's the cook-o? Well, so that's interesting. But I do think it also explains some of the, you know, it's not easy to be young these days. And it could be that you just have too much protection. I think it's cyclical because I think the next generation is just like, hey, you know what, my parents kind of screwed me up. I'm certainly not going to do the same mistake. And so I think it's going to get into that kind of stuff. In other words, my parents didn't get a hoot what I was doing. You know what I mean? They basically said, come home in the street lights go on.

现在大概是凌晨三点，非常早，非常早。所以我们尝试着去找到它。我觉得，我们生活在一个坚韧精神可能比以前少一些的世界里。专家们认为，年轻一代平均来说缺乏一点坚韧，因为他们在成长过程中受到父母的保护。父母替他们做了很多决定，并解决了很多问题。因此，我们自己面对的问题就少了。我认为这是显而易见的，你觉得呢？嗯，这很有趣。我也认为这解释了如今年轻人生活的不易。可能是因为保护过多。我觉得这是周期性的，因为我觉得下一代会意识到，“嘿，你知道吗，我的父母把我搞糟了。我肯定不会重蹈覆辙。”所以我认为这种情况会出现。换句话说，我的父母对我在做什么不太在意，他们基本上只说，街灯亮了就回家。

Absolutely. Okay. That certainly wasn't the way my kids grew up. Yeah. I mean, you know, my, I remember my father, he said, uh, Nicola, have you heard about, uh, hedge fund? So daddy, I've been, I worked for a hedge fund for 10 years now. Shift gears. You're passionate about European competitiveness.

当然。不过，那绝对不是我孩子们成长的方式。是的，我记得我父亲说过，"Nicola，你听说过对冲基金吗？" 我回答说，"爸爸，我已经在对冲基金工作10年了。" 我们换个话题吧，你对于欧洲竞争力充满热情。

And it was interesting what you said a few moments ago when we were talking about, you know, innovation, economy, and and regulation. I mean, I just, I would just observe one of the things that, that, you know, I saw, you know, recently that just kind of, I, I, I thought, you know, the European Union got so wrong was when the regulatory infrastructure came out and said, we have to protect Europe from AI. It's almost like the opposite. How do we encourage Europe to be taking risks and investing in, in AI? Talk a little bit about what Europe can do to be more competitive.

几分钟前我们谈到创新、经济和监管的问题时，你提到的一点非常有趣。我的观察是，我最近看到的一个情况让我觉得，欧洲联盟在这方面做得不太好，就是当他们出台监管措施时，表示要保护欧洲免受人工智能的影响。这几乎是反其道而行之。我们应该考虑的是，如何鼓励欧洲在人工智能领域进行风险投资。聊聊欧洲可以怎么做才能更具竞争力。

Yeah, it's a very, very difficult question, right? Um, I mean, on AI, we think it needs some kind of regulation and oversight. But the thing is that, uh, in Europe, we have a lot of regulation. And in my mind, regulations are one, one, one by one, they're pretty good, right? There is a reason why you regulate that and why you regulate that and why you really get that. But it's a bit like you come into a bar and each bottle tastes pretty good. But when you put everything into a bucket, it doesn't taste so good.

是的，这是一个非常非常困难的问题，对吧？嗯，我的意思是，对于人工智能，我们认为它需要某种程度的监管和监督。但问题在于，呃，在欧洲，我们有很多法规。 在我看来，一条一条的法规都挺不错的，对每个问题进行监管都有其理由。但这有点像你走进一个酒吧，每瓶酒单独喝都很好，但如果你把所有酒都倒在一个桶里的话，味道就不太好了。

The long island is tea. Yeah, well, that's only like six, six, only six, yeah, whatever. Uh, so it's very regulated. And, um, and I think that the kind of the heavy level of regulation combined with, uh, kind of competition authority, which has insisted that there should be huge competition in all areas in all countries means that you have a pretty market, right? There is not one big bank. Uh, in every country, you have three telecom operators. So you basically have nearly 30 in all of Europe was three in the whole US.

长岛冰茶。是的，好吧，那只是六种成分，对，随便吧。那么，这种饮品是非常受法律监管的。而且，我认为这种严格的管制，加上竞争管理机构的要求——即所有领域、所有国家都必须有巨大的竞争——这意味着你有一个相当公平的市场。没有一个大银行垄断。在每个国家，你都有三家电信运营商。所以基本上整个欧洲有将近30家，而整个美国只有三家。

So you get, uh, quite small players in a lot of different places. And that means that they are not globally competitive. Now this may be changing, uh, hopefully, and I think it does. But you know, there is a lot of stuff to do. And if you want to read a good report on this, it's a draggy report, which came out a little while back. Really small report is just the kind of things we need to do. Now, what you need to do takes, it costs a lot of money and it takes strong political will. And so we'll see what leadership takes leadership.

所以你会在很多不同地方看到一些规模很小的企业。这意味着它们在全球市场上没有竞争力。现在这种情况可能正在改变，希望如此，我觉得确实在改变。但你知道，还有很多事情要做。如果你想看一份关于这方面的好报告，可以参考不久前发布的Draghi报告。这是一份简短的报告，正好列出了我们需要做的事情。我们需要做的事情需要很多资金和坚定的政治意愿。所以我们会看到领导层如何引领这个过程。

Yeah, this is not easy. Yeah. So to live in Europe and invest in America, is pretty good. Yeah. I was going to say Europe is a great place to live. It's a fantastic place to live. And, you know, there are some really serious questions about kind of social fabric and, and those kinds of things, right? And social protection.

是啊，这不容易。是的。所以在欧洲生活并在美国投资，这很不错。我本来想说欧洲是个很棒的生活地方。是个非常适合居住的地方。而且，你知道，对于社会结构和社会保障等方面，还有一些非常严肃的问题需要考虑。

Um, and for sure we have that in Europe. Yeah. I mean, one of the things that I've found fascinating is I've gotten to know you over the last, you know, five, six years is you love to learn. You have lots of diverse interests, you know, outside of finance, including degrees you've completed as an adult in art history and social psychology. Talk a little bit about getting those degrees as an adult and how it's affected, you know, kind of the way you invest, how it's infected kind of your thought process around life.

嗯，在欧洲肯定有这样的情况。是的。我觉得特别有意思的一点是，在过去五六年里，随着对你的了解加深，我发现你非常热爱学习。除了金融之外，你还有很多多样的兴趣，比如你在成年后获得了艺术史和社会心理学的学位。可以谈谈在成年人阶段获得这些学位的经历，以及它们如何影响你的投资方式，以及如何改变你对生活的思考方式吗？

Yeah. So it depends on, you know, how do you, how do you measure your life? Some people measure the success in money. I don't do that. I think, you know, some people think the people who's got the most money when he or she dies is has won. So I think that's totally wrong. I think they have lost, because first of all, they should have given it away, right? But I think the person who knows the most when he or she dies, they are the winners. So you need to learn as much as you can. And so, you know, I try to learn all the time. So, and I think one of the most interesting thing I've studied is social psychology, because there it kind of teaches you how people think, what kind of risk they take, what are the drivers in their lives and so on. And we've put quite a lot of that into work in the fund. It's the whole idea behind the investment simulator.

好的。所以，这取决于你如何衡量自己的人生。有些人用金钱来衡量成功，但我不会这样做。我认为，有人觉得死的时候钱最多的人就赢了，我完全不赞同。我觉得这样的人其实是失败的，因为首先他们应该把钱捐出去。但我认为，死时知识最多的人才是真正的赢家。因此，你需要尽可能多地学习。我一直都在努力学习，我觉得我研究过的最有趣的领域之一是社会心理学。因为它教会你人是如何思考、他们会冒什么样的风险、生活中有什么动力等等。我们也将这些知识运用在基金管理中，这就是投资模拟器背后的整个理念。

It's just how you can learn and how, you know, what are your weaknesses as a trader and so on. That comes from that. How you use your analysis versus gut feel or pattern recognition. That's interesting. You know, how you cope with being contrarian, all these kind of things. So I do think it's very interesting how you can combine things with finance. And most of the innovations these days come from how you combine, you know, information in new ways. I think it's really fascinating. You know, you're touching a little bit on culture.

这只是你学习的方式，还有你作为一个交易者的弱点等等。这些都是从中得出的。你如何使用分析与直觉或模式识别，这很有趣。你知道吗，如何应对逆势操作等所有这些事情。所以我确实认为，如何将各种事物与金融相结合是非常有趣的。如今的大多数创新都来自于你如何以新的方式整合信息。我觉得这真的很迷人。你在某种程度上也触及了文化。

Culture is hugely important success. I read an article by a Norwegian author who praised your form of leadership saying, I quote, you embody the image of a modern Viking, always in motion, constantly active, busy. They were keen to explore. Yeah. Supposedly they were very consensus driven. So I don't know how they did this. It's like, hey, which village are we going to pillage? Let's vote for it. But supposedly, and it explains why leadership form in the Nordic countries is more consensual, supposedly. Somebody told me.

文化对于成功来说极其重要。我读了一篇由一位挪威作者撰写的文章，他赞扬你的领导风格，并引用道：“你体现了现代维京人的形象，总是动感十足，活跃忙碌。”他们很乐于探索。据说，维京人非常强调共识。我不太清楚他们是怎么做到的，就像是，“嘿，我们要去掠夺哪个村庄？让我们投票决定吧。”但据说这也解释了为什么北欧国家的领导风格更注重共识。有人告诉我这个说法。

No, I think you want to be curious. I think you want to move around. I think you want to do different things. You know, it's important not to be, not to have two strong habits. It's important to break them up. So for instance, you know, you know, when during the holiday, you are the most happy. After it's over? No. The 43rd hour. That's after which you start to get habituated with where you are. So companies in nice places, really, Sunday, is wonderful.

不，我认为你想要保持好奇。我觉得你想四处走动，尝试不同的事情。你知道的，不要养成过于牢固的习惯是很重要的。要学会打破它们。比如说，当你在度假时，你会感到最快乐。假期结束后？不对。是在第43小时，这是你开始适应身处环境的时刻。所以，在风景优美的地方，星期天真是美好的一天。

Wow, blue water, right? It's just like amazing for the first 43 hours. And then it starts to become habit. And so you need to break it up. You need to do some more things. So for instance, I live in New York now for the whole of November. It's fantastic. Fantastic. You know, times I've never been more exciting. I wake up in the morning. I just can't wait to get out of bed. And it's just never been more exciting. And let's not forget that this is the world we live in, right? We have technology change has never been faster. Geobilitics never more exciting. Hey, you guys selection coming up? Really exciting too.

哇，蓝色的水，对吧？起初的43个小时真是令人惊叹。但随后，它开始变得习以为常。所以你需要打破这种习惯，你需要去做更多的事情。比方说，我现在整个十一月都住在纽约，这真的很棒。太棒了。你知道，现在的时代比以往任何时候都更令人激动。我早上醒来，就迫不及待地想要起床。一直以来都没有这么令人兴奋过。别忘了，这就是我们生活的世界，对吧？科技变化从未如此迅速。地缘政治从未如此激动人心。嘿，你们的选举快来了吧？那也真是令人期待。

Nikolai, thank you. This has been terrific. Really appreciate you taking the time to do it. That was great. I really appreciate you doing it.

尼古拉，非常感谢你。这个过程太棒了。我真的很感激你花时间来做这件事。真的很棒。我非常感激你这样做。