The Global Freelancing Boom and You! | Freelancer.com's CEO, Matt Barrie
发布时间 2023-04-04 07:00:00 来源
Is AI going to take your job? Another way to put it is, where is everybody? Like, where did all the workers in restaurants go? Where did all the workers in the airplanes go? I just was reading today, Jet Blue has to cut down on flights because there aren't enough air traffic controllers. Where did everybody go? Well, I have on the man who has the answer and it's Matt Barry from freelancer.com.
人工智能会取代你的工作吗？另一种表达方式是，人们都去哪了？比如，餐馆里的所有工人都去哪了？飞机上的所有工人都去哪了？我今天刚刚读到，捷蓝航空公司必须减少航班，因为没有足够的空中交通管制人员。人们都去哪了？好的，我请来了能够回答这个问题的人，他就是来自freelancer.com的Matt Barry。
Things have changed so much since the last time he came on, he came on in 2017 and the world has gone from 3% of people doing freelancing work to upwards of 40% of people doing freelancing work. And now AI is not going to just change everything for the better for worse. We talk about all these things, talk about the economy, worst-case scenarios, best-case scenarios but most of all it's just fascinating, is AI going to take your job or anybody else you know, here's Matt and I talking about it.
自 2017 年上次他来以来，情况已经大不同了。当时只有 3% 的人在自由职业领域工作，现在已经上升到超过 40% 的人在自由职业领域工作。现在 AI 将不仅仅是改变一切的好坏。我们谈论所有这些事情，谈论经济，最坏情况和最好情况，但最重要的是，人工智能会取代你的工作或你认识的任何其他人吗? 凯撒与我谈论它，真的很有趣。
This isn't your average business podcast and he's not your average host this is the James Altiger show. Matt, we last spoke six years ago and I feel like the freelancing world has a billion percent changed. What an incredible time to be alive, I mean and be a freelancer or be an entrepreneur it's incredible now.
这不是普通的商业播客，主持人也不平凡，这是詹姆斯·奥尔泰尔的节目。马特，我们上次交谈是六年前了，我感觉自由职业世界变化了一亿倍。生活在现在真是太不可思议了，我是说，成为自由职业者或企业家，真是太不可思议了。
I mean, in 2020 I was reading that only 3% of the work for us for freelancers and now it's up to 40% of the workforce does some sort of freelancing work. What are they all doing? What's happened to the world, I mean other than the pandemic?
我是说，2020年我读到只有3%的工作适合自由职业者，但现在高达40%的工人从事自由职业工作。他们都在做什么？世界发生了什么事，除了疫情之外？
Well, I mean every job on the world now can be done with the computer pretty much from anywhere in the world software is you know eaten everything is all moved into the clouds and human-computer interaction is got so good that you know people on the other side of the world can work in a team on pretty much any profession in real-time. At the same time, you've got whole huge numbers of people have gone online around the world and emerging markets is the internet has kind of grown everywhere and getting skilled up, getting trained up and now with artificial intelligence.
嗯，我的意思是，现在世界上的每个工作，基本上都可以用电脑从世界任何地方完成，软件已经吞噬了一切，所有东西都移动到了云端，人机交互变得非常好，你知道，世界另一端的人们可以实时地在任何职业上组成团队。与此同时，在全球范围内有大量人已经上线，新兴市场因为互联网的普及而蓬勃发展，人们正在不断提高技能，接受培训，并且现在还有人工智能。
Everyone in the world can now perform at the elite level in a whole variety of skills, you can now illustrate that the level of an elite illustrator even though you might not have any design skills whatsoever you can. Right copy you can program using chat GPT it's an incredible time and the whole space is moving so quickly with all tooling is now available for freelancers that is all powered by I.
现在全世界的人都能够以精英水平进行各种技能表演，即使你没有任何设计技能，你也能够表现出一个精英插画师的水平。你可以使用聊天GPT编写正确的文本。这是一个难以置信的时代，整个领域正在迅速发展，现在为自由职业者提供了所有的工具，这些工具都由AI提供动力。
Yeah, like a lot of people go back and forth on the AI component of this and I'm still interested in like in the economics of like why people are leaving the kind of regular workforce for freelancing but a lot of people worry will AI take their jobs let's say I was going to hire someone to make a logo well now I can just go to mid journey or dolly or any of these AI graphic tools and say get me a logo give me five give me five thousand logos are going to pick from and this is what I want and I do it in the style solve the world.
有很多人在AI领域上来回摇摆，但我仍然对人们为什么离开常规劳动力转为自由职业者的经济情况感兴趣。但是很多人担心AI会夺走他们的工作。比如说，如果我要雇人做一个标志，现在我可以去mid journey或dolly或任何这些AI图形工具，告诉它们给我五个标志，我会从中选择一个。我会按自己的风格来解决问题。
The style solve or dolly and boom, it does it like is there going to be a human need for many typical freelancing jobs. I absolutely because you still need someone to drive all the tools my mother would be completely unable to go to mid journey and figure out how to use it and also people are very time poor so you always need people to do things for you even if you know how to do the particular work you've got to get people to assist you with that you know these tools basically a super skill everyone it lifts the ability of everyone.
这个风格的解决方案是像人类需要许多典型的自由职业工作一样去做的。我绝对认同，因为你仍然需要有人来驾驶所有的工具，我母亲完全无法在中途停下来并想出如何使用它，而且人们非常缺乏时间，所以即使你知道如何做特定的工作，你还是需要人来帮助你完成任务。这些工具基本上是超级技能，可以提高每个人的能力。
Around the world in a variety of different categories and that's going to increase and the world is desperately short in skilled labor or around the world. You know every female on the planet needs to have 2.1 children to maintain the population and across the western world, the birth rate is way below the replacement rate even in Bangladesh today the birth rate is well below the replacement rate, so we're critically short, you know engineers critically short computer scientists and programmers you know some countries like Japan it's so pronounced in 2011 Unicharm which is the largest model in the world.
世界各地的许多领域都需要更多的人才，这种需求不断增长，而且全球缺乏熟练劳动力。你知道吗，每个女性都需要生育2.1个孩子来维持人口稳定，而在西方世界，出生率远低于替代率，即使在孟加拉国，如今的出生率也远低于替代率，所以我们的熟练工程师、计算机科学家和程序员短缺得非常严重，有些国家像日本在这方面非常明显，在2011年，它的最大厂商Unicharm的人力短缺问题就已经引起了公众关注。
In the charm which is the largest manufacturer of diapers in Japan says we now produce more adult diapers than baby diapers right so, so there's a huge that is unbelievable that's the statistic of the day. So there's a huge needs for skilled talents and you know like all technologies in the past you know technology can be disruptive temporarily but it does create more jobs in the end that it takes, although you know I will say the events are happening in AI you know what one week in AI seems to be one year in any other filter field of research.
在日本最大的尿片制造商Charm中，他们说我们现在生产的成年纸尿裤比婴儿尿片还多，这是一个不可思议的巨大的需求，这是今天的统计数字。因此，需要有熟练的人才，就像过去所有的技术一样，技术可能会暂时造成破坏，但最终它会创造更多的就业机会，尽管我会说AI领域正在发生的事情，似乎一周的AI相当于在其他任何过滤领域的一年。
We'll see what we're seeing right now is that that basically it's giving superpowers to people around the world no matter what your skill set is you can now.
我们现在所看到的是，基本上它正在赋予世界各地的人超能力，不管你的技能水平如何，现在你都能拥有。我们将看到更多的这种情况。
Working all these different areas at the elite level it's incredible it reminds me of like in the 90s where people would spend a lot of money hiring others like freelancers to make their websites but then making websites became ridiculously cheap at least at the basic level because you could just use WordPress or something like that but still probably now more people than ever.
在精英水平工作的各个领域真的是非常了不起，这让我想起90年代人们为了制作网站而雇用自由职业者花费了大量金钱，但是至少在基本层面上制作网站变得非常便宜，因为你可以使用像WordPress这样的工具，但是现在可能比以往任何时候都更多人在制作网站。
Are higher to build websites because you still need no matter what a human component to really manage the process like there's always a human component no matter what the technology is.
创建网站时需要更多人力资源，因为无论是什么技术，都需要真正的人员去管理整个过程，这个人力因素是不可缺少的。
That's right and people are very time poor there's so many things you can do in the world now that you're hyper connected right there's so many distractions whether it's whether it's work or whether it's Instagram or whether it's you know you can be counting with people or whatever it is.
没错，人们时间非常紧张。现在你的网络连接如此便捷，世界上有太多你可以做的事情。有很多干扰，无论是工作、Instagram，还是与人交往等等。
You know the time is increasingly precious and so you do need people to help you no matter what it is and if you look at some of these professions and what's happened over the last decade or two with the internet and with software and so forth.
你知道，时间越来越宝贵，所以无论是什么事情，你都需要别人的帮助。如果你看看某些职业，以及在过去十年或二十年中互联网、软件等技术发展方面的变化，就会发现这一点。
Look at graphic designer 20 years ago graphic designers the bread and butter at least here amongst the people I knew that were doing graphic design was I'll design a few logos and you know I'll do that for a few thousand dollars and then afterwards what I'll do is I'll do a station reset few business cards and I'll be like a little bit more and you know it's all kind of that level of sort of work.
在20年前看看平面设计师，至少在我认识的从事平面设计的人中，平面设计师是一份谋生手段。我会设计几个徽标，收几千美元，然后接下来我会设计公司的名片等等类似的工作，这些工作都属于同一级别。
You know over the last decade graphic designers don't really in the west don't really do that anymore they're up the stack now they're designing apps they're designing websites the designing businesses right they can now high freelancers who can program to help them to turn the dreams into reality.
你知道，在过去的十年里，西方的平面设计师实际上已经不再只是从事平面设计工作了。如今，他们的工作已经覆盖到更高层面了，他们设计的是应用程序、网站，还有整个商业。他们现在可以雇佣自由职业者来协助他们实现梦想，这些自由职业者可以编写程序，将他们的设计转化为现实。
And with a it's going to be another leap again where you know the I will probably design the app and the website for you and you'll be more of a conductor or the editor or the producer or the cinematographer saying I want it to be a little bit different maybe a bit more color there at a feature so we can.
并且它将会是另一次的飞跃，你知道我很可能会为你设计应用和网站，而你会更像指挥家、编辑者、制片人或摄影师，说出“我想让它有点不同，可能在这里增加一些颜色，加入一些功能，这样我们就可以......”
You know do the following and and you know the nature of work is going to be more and more higher level and more more the production level in the directing level then then maybe on the tools pushing pixels around the screen.
你知道要做以下的事情，而且你知道工作的性质会变得越来越高级，越来越多的生产水平在指导层面上，然后可能需要在工具上推动像素在屏幕上移动。
And you know let me ask this I wonder if this is true for Australia like and around the world again freelancer dot com is is a global site there's about sixteen million users so it's around the world I wonder if you're seeing the same thing we're seeing very particularly here in the US which is after the pandemic.
你知道让我问一下，我想知道澳大利亚和全球是否也是这样，自由职业者点点com是一个全球网站，大约有16百万用户，所以它覆盖全球。我想知道你是否看到了我们在这里美国尤其是疫情后看到的同样的情况。
It seemed like nobody went back to work like every restaurant was complaining to me oh we don't have anybody none of our old employees came back where did everybody go did they all go to freelancer dot com I mean that a lot of did actually yes so there's been three major.
似乎没人回去上班，就像每个餐厅都向我抱怨说：“我们没有员工，没有一个原来的员工回来了，所有人都去哪儿了？他们都去Freelancer.com了吗？” 实际上确实有很多人这样做了，所以出现了三个主要问题。
Points in the world in the last decade where you've had this discontinuity of disruption that's occurred in the marketplace for work we saw it in originally in the global financial crisis where you know even though that was mainly in the US for the most part you had three things happening you had businesses going online looking to do things cheaper because it obviously you know all the layoffs and everyone's trying to cut costs you had a lot of people looking for work online and then you had the third phenomenon which was a lot of people creating businesses.
最近10年世界上发生了许多使市场产生不连续性的事件，最初是在全球金融危机中出现了这种情况。尽管该危机主要发生在美国，但出现了三个趋势，一是企业开始线上操作以降低成本并避免解雇员工，二是许多人开始在线上寻找工作，三是许多人开始创立自己的企业。
Because they're like you know I lost my job at Lane brothers yeah I've got six months before I kind of will take it seriously and get back into the workforce why don't I kind of build that start up that I was always wanting to build or go help my wife with her her shop she was want to get a website put together I kind of help with that.
因为你知道的，我在莱恩兄弟公司失业了，我还有六个月才会真正认真地重新踏入职场，为什么不建立那个我一直想要建立的初创企业，或者去帮助我妻子的店铺，她想要建立一个网站，我可以帮她一起做。
We saw that again in the pandemic three things were happening you know people looking for online business looking to cut costs but a lot of start up businesses were happening and you know people were kind of you know there's build a little drop shipping website or on Facebook I can sell a particular product they found out Valley bar.
我们看到在这次疫情中有三件事情再次发生，你知道的，人们寻找在线业务，试图削减成本，但也有很多初创企业在涌现。人们有点想建立一个小小的代发网站或在 Facebook 上销售某个产品，他们发现了价值。
Or you know I can build a game that was very popular of games being developed and so forth and we're seeing again today with the with all the layoffs that's happening in tech where you know the I think last year there's like 170,000 layoffs in technology companies in the US and you know people doing the same thing they're like you know I'm not going to go back working at a big tech company or or I have you know I'm going to do my own start up here's a chance for me to kind of go out there and and do it myself and you know we're seeing a big boom in you know software development apps we're seeing a big boom in games and so on.
你知道吗，我可以开发一款非常受欢迎的游戏，而现在我们可以看到科技公司正在大规模裁员，去年美国科技公司有超过17万人被裁，人们也开始做同样的事情，比如不再回去大型科技公司工作，或者他们准备自己创业，这给了他们一个机会去实现自己的想法。我们正在见证软件开发和应用程序开发的繁荣，游戏产业也在蓬勃发展。
Like what kind of games like I when I think of a game I think of these really high tech 3d you know super games that take a thousand man years to build like can someone just go on freelancers.com and say oh I could build a game like how do you how do you build a game.
像我这样想起游戏时，会想到那些超级高科技、需要一千年的人力才能构建的3D游戏。像有人能够在freelancers.com上说“我可以构建一个游戏”一样，你怎么构建一个游戏呢？
Absolutely you come in and you just kind of write out right out of brief and you say this is kind of how I want it to work and there's all sorts of freelancers all way from individuals right up to professional agencies that will do it for you for any budget really I mean there's a lot of that's really I mean there's one that happened like as we speak there building a game around war and strategy that you know there's missions special events and a high entire campaign storyline. Then implementing a play to play a feature and a play versus machine model etc and you can do the stuff very very very inexpensively for that one tenth of what you expect to cost if you went to local agencies and you know the talent is incredible today you know any skill set you can possibly imagine you can hire kind of the snappy fingers by disposing a project that's there.
当然，你可以进来，直接简明扼要地描述你想要的效果。有各种自由职业者可供选择，从个人到专业代理机构都有，无论你的预算是多少，他们都可以为你完成你的需求。我意思是，真的有很多，比如就有一家正在制作一款关于战争和策略的游戏，里面有各种任务、特别活动和完整的战役故事情节。他们还实现了玩家对战功能和与机器人对战功能等，你可以以非常便宜的价格完成这些工作，只需要你碰巧有个项目需要这样做。而且现在的人才真的非常出色，你可以雇用到各种技能的人，只需要轻轻一挥手。
Basically the global economy benefits so you have people in third world countries who are doing this labor cheaply and you have people like who are laid off from Amazon last week they have maybe a little extra cash to hire somebody from some other country through a site like freelance.com or upwork or whatever they can lay out the cash to build a game build the website build a store or whatever. That's right.
基本上，全球经济有利，因此你会发现有很多来自第三世界国家的人能以较低的价格从事这种劳动。而那些像上周被亚马逊解雇的人，他们可能有些额外的现金可以通过像自由职业者网或upwork之类的网站来雇用一些来自其他国家的人来建立游戏、建立网站，或者建立商店。没错。
So who's who actually will restaurants all go about a business because that can be any waiters any more. Well I mean the there's there is the issue with restaurants. I would be a waiter.
那么，究竟哪些人是餐厅经营者，因为现在已经不是任何服务员了。我是说，餐厅存在问题。我愿意做一名服务员。
But yeah I mean it's a pretty amazing phenomenon because what's happening is you know France is a pretty magical place because you know the 66 million people are on the marketplace. They're creating the future and they're creating opportunity and it's really changing lives so on one hand yeah you've got the guy who left Amazon in the US is like you know what I'm going to start a game or I'm going to start a website or an app or what have you. And so they're kind of creating the future and innovating and doing fun fun things.
嗯，我的意思是这是一种非常惊人的现象，因为正在发生的事情是，法国是一个相当神奇的地方，因为有6千6百万人参加市场。他们在创造未来，创造机会，这真的正在改变着人们的生活，所以一方面，你有那些离开美国亚马逊的人，他们想做游戏、网站或应用程序等等，他们正在创造未来，创新，做着有趣的事情。
And on the other side you've got people emerging markets who are working in highly skilled areas and it's generating opportunity in income and tech jobs and yes skills are being generated and so forth. And so it's it's it's changing lives in the other side of the equation as well because you know globally there's a huge disparity in things like wages right and the average wage in the US last time a check was about 123 dollars a day and the average wage in India was some like $2.25 a day so there's like 50 to 1 disparity and those those ratios might have changed a little bit but but the point the point is you can you can deliver high paying jobs on one side of the equation in areas that desperately need them and and lift skills up and build independence because the freelancers they're all you can choose when you want to work what fuel. You want to work what field you want to work in how much you want to be paid and so forth and at the same time it's it's really it's architect in the future of of basically work it's going to create a job rather than take a job and I think a lot of people when they were off.
在另一方面，我们有来自新兴市场的人们，他们在高技能领域工作，这产生了机会、收入和技术工作，是的，技能正在生成等等。因此，在等式的另一边，它也正在改变人们的生活，因为全球范围内薪资等方面存在巨大差距，美国的平均工资上次检查时大约为123美元/天，而印度的平均工资大约是2.25美元/天，因此存在50:1的巨大差距，这些比率可能有所改变，但重点是你可以在迫切需要高薪工作的领域的一方提供高薪工作，并提高技能和建立独立性，因为自由职业者可以选择何时工作、想在哪个领域工作、想要多少报酬等等。同时，它也真正地在为未来的工作架构打造而努力，它将创造就业机会而不是取走工作，我认为很多人在停职期间都希望这样。
Yeah, you know the stimulus happened and there's a lot of benefits and and so forth you correctly identified that a lot of people didn't go back to the traditional workforce they're like you know I can I can run my own business now I can find ways to start things are side hustles even to supplement my income and I get to kind of you know be master of my destiny rather than kind of. You know cooking cook out 9 to 5 and it seems like AI is this.
嗯，你知道刺激计划已经实施了，有很多好处等等，你正确地指出很多人没有回到传统劳动力，他们说：“你知道我现在可以经营自己的业务，我可以找到创业的方法，甚至把副业作为补充收入，我可以成为自己命运的主宰，而不是像之前一样，整天呆在办公室里。看起来人工智能也是这样。
Huge thing that's only just happened like yesterday that's going to completely change the nature of freelancing even like as we were already discussing like what skills are going to be the important skill sets to be a freelancer in the coming months years and so on now that AI has been introduced seems like you're going to have to have really good communication and project management skills like you said people are going to have me conductors of many different skill sets that AI is going to be a lot of work. So that's that AI is is doing as opposed to necessarily having the skill yourself.
有一个巨大的事情，就像昨天才发生的那样，它将完全改变自由职业的性质，正如我们之前已经讨论过，在未来的几个月或几年中，哪些技能将成为自由职业者重要的技能集，现在引入了人工智能，似乎你必须拥有非常好的沟通和项目管理技能，就像你说的，人们将成为许多不同技能集的指挥者，而AI将会是很多工作的来源。因此，这就是AI正在做的事情，与你自己具备的技能不同。
That's right. I mean the advances I mean if you think about it's a it's only since August of last year they can stable diffusion came out which kind of kicked off the whole arms race and now you've got things like mid journey you've got obviously chat GPT 4 which came out which is game changing.
没错，我的意思是那些进步。如果你仔细想想，仅仅自去年八月以来，稳定扩散就诞生了，这是整个军备竞赛的开端，现在你有像中途旅程、显然是游戏变革的聊天 GPT 4 这样的东西。
Any sort of white color job now the AI will be able to figure out and and probably do it at the at the level and so whether opportunity comes in is a now anyone's super skilled anyone can use the tools anyone can get in there and perform at the level across a range of different areas and yes the jobs move up the stack just like they've moved it with every leap of technology so you will be less sort of programming in Python and you'll be more saying I would like to have an app that's like Uber for pets. Can you change the features here can you more of a product manager more of a director more of conductor.
现在，任何种类的白领工作，AI都能够想出并很可能在相应的水平上完成。因此，机会来了，任何人都可以利用工具和不同领域的技能进行表现。随着科技的飞跃，工作也会向更高级的方向发展。你将会少写Python程序，更多地说“我想要一个像Uber一样的宠物应用程序。你可以在这里加更多功能吗？”你将更多地成为产品经理、导演或指挥者。
You know I like the styling I don't really like the styling can you please make the style a little bit more modern or a bit more sleek or a bit more like that website or generate a mood board for me based upon the following you know preferences or and what have you so so it's going to be really lifting pro to live at levels both of of the freelancers to the work and also the speed of which companies can commercialize products because you're a little bit of say OK build me a company today and I want a website want an app. I want to work like this I want to be in this sort of styling and presto it's there then you have a real challenges of well how do I sell it how do I market and so forth what are you seeing the most in terms of like changes just in the past few months across the freelancer dot com community.
你知道，我喜欢这种风格。但实际上我并不是很喜欢。你能否将这种风格变得更加现代、更加时尚，或者更像那个网站？或者根据我的喜好制作一个心情板？这样一来，对于自由职业者工作的效率和公司产品商业化的速度都可以大大提升。比如说，现在可以对自己说“今天我要创立一家公司，我需要一个网站、一个应用程序，我需要这种工作方式，我希望是这种风格，然后就行了”，但是接下来你会面临真正的挑战，比如如何销售、如何营销等等。在过去几个月的自由职业者社区中，你最近发现最大的变化是什么？
I definitely designed a copywriting so you know copyright is now less writing the copy themselves and they're more being the editor so chat GPT for example can generate content in any field you want. But then you have to tell it will actually do it again but do it in a different style or I showed off an example as a friend of mine who runs macro voices the podcast Eric Towns and I had lunch on the other day and he's like you know you get it to run an interview transcript with me with the surgaid glaziev and I wrote the transcript is if that's what we're speaking and he's like but it doesn't really understand that he might have a certain bias given these position in the Russian ministry and so I said chat GPT do it again noting that he's in the Russian ministry and he might have a bit of bias and I regret the whole transcript needs to like wow right so you will play more of an editorial role like a cinematographer or director or produce sort of role where where you'll look at and go okay change that change this where have you but the air itself in terms of what can generate will be incredible I mean like in a few weeks from now you better say make me the movie top gun 17 with Putin's fighting that with Tom Cruise and you hit a button the bang of the movie will come out of the side that's literally wakes away so it's pretty exciting times and whole industry's got change and whatever someone says we'll chat GPT can do this but it will never be able to do that you know the wrong like it's whatever you say it's never gonna be able to do eventually it will do it
我设计了一个广告文案，所以你知道版权现在不再是写作本身，而更多是编辑，例如聊天GPT可以在你想要的任何领域生成内容。但是你必须告诉它，它会再次执行，但以不同的风格进行。我展示了一个例子，我的朋友Eric Towns运营的播客“宏观之声”，我们前几天一起吃午餐时，他说你可以让它运行我与Surgaid Glaziev的采访记录，我写了这个记录，就像我们在说话一样。他说，但实际上它并不真正理解，他可能会因他在俄罗斯部委中的位置而具有某些偏见。因此，我说让聊天GPT再试一次，指出他在俄罗斯部委中，并可能有点偏见，我后悔整个记录需要像哇一样。所以你将扮演更多的编辑角色，就像电影摄影师、导演或制片人的角色，你将观察并说这样改变那样改变，但他本身在生成方面所能做到的是令人难以置信的。我一两个星期后甚至可以说“为我制作与普京和汤姆·克鲁斯对战的《壮志凌云17》电影”，然后点击按钮，电影就会出现在屏幕上，这是非常令人兴奋的时代，整个行业都有所改变。无论有人说什么，我们可以说聊天GPT可以做到这一点，但它永远也不会做到那一点，你知道是错的，因为它最终都将做到。
And so the question is, at what point, I mean, with every change of technology in history, as you said earlier, there's always been more jobs created than loss. When horses were replaced by cars, more jobs were created than were lost in the horse industry. But will there come a tipping point where AI finally does the full human experience, the full human job in major industries? Well, yeah, and imagine, you've got to remember that most jobs actually are not online jobs. Jobs are actually physical jobs where you kind of have to go somewhere and pick something up and put it down. Until they've plugged chat GPT into Boston Dynamics Atlas, we've got a bit of time left before Terminator, so it takes over.
所以问题是，在历史上每次科技改变时，就像您之前所说的那样，总是会创造出比消失的工作更多的工作岗位。例如，当马被汽车取代时，马业产生了更多的工作岗位。但是，是否有一个临界点，人工智能最终能够在主要行业中完全代替人类的工作？是的，需要记住的是，大多数工作实际上并不是在线工作。工作实际上是需要身体出现的工作，你必须去某个地方取东西并且放下来。在他们将聊天GPT插入波士顿动力的Atlas之前，我们还有一段时间可以避免终结者的崛起。
But yeah, certainly, I think it'd be interesting. When the software starts running itself, like in chat GPT, it gets given the source code to chat GPT and said, can you improve chat GPT? It'd be pretty crazy. I think the other big crazy thing is going to happen is when they feed in every single academic paper, every thesis that's been written by a PhD student, every bit of research known to man, and they'll say, okay, based on all that research, can you write a paper for a pill that will extend human life by five years or whatever it may be. I think you'll have a technological explosion that's going to come out the other side of that. That combined with the feedback loop of the software writing, the software, if chat GPT can kind of write itself, you might get a pretty crazy sort of times.
是的，我认为这将是很有趣的。当软件自己开始运行，比如在聊天GPT中，它会得到聊天GPT的源代码，并被要求：“你能改进聊天GPT吗？” 这将非常疯狂。我认为另一个疯狂的事情将会发生，那就是他们将输入每篇学术论文，每个由博士生撰写的论文，以及人类所知道的每一项研究，他们会说：“好的，基于所有这些研究，你能写一篇关于能够将人类寿命延长五年或者其他任何数字的药物的论文吗？”我想你会看到一种技术爆炸出现在这样的研究之后。这个软件编写自己的反馈循环与此相结合，如果聊天GPT能够写自己，你可能会得到一些非常疯狂的时代。
They've talked about the singularity for years where at some point, technology will outstrip the ability. The pace of which technology improves will outpace the ability of the human mind to be able to comprehend it. You'll end up with this big bangs of phenomena where either man and machine will meld, and that's what Elon Musk is trying to do with neural link, where he's trying to say, well, maybe the future of humanity is being inside the machine, or you might end up with a Terminator event where the chat GPT ends up driving Boston Dynamics Atlas. The AI figures out that humans are a threat and they're a waste of resources and you're trying to call for John Conner at that point.
多年来，人们一直在谈论“奇点”问题，即在某个时刻，技术将超越人类的能力。技术改进的速度将远远超过人类大脑理解的能力。最终，你将面临着各种现象的巨大冲击，要么人和机器会融合在一起，这就是埃隆•马斯克试图通过神经链接来实现的目标，他试图说，也许人类的未来就在机器中；或者你可能会遇到类似于《终结者》的事件，其中的聊天 GPT 最终驾驶着波士顿动力公司的 Atlas 机器人。人工智能意识到人类是一种威胁，是资源的浪费，而此时你正在寻求约翰•康纳的帮助。
Or it might be the Peter Dair, Manda's model who runs the X Prize Foundation, where he says it's the age of abundance and everything will be plentiful and you'll be sitting back with your feet up and everything you'll, every whim you want will be provided for. You might be in that sort of universal basic income sort of scenario where we've got that age of plenty. Everything's provided for you. You can do anything and everyone can just sit around playing World of Warcraft 15 or something rather which is generate on the fly. And you know, the most.
或许这是彼得·戴尔，曼达的模特儿，他经营着X Prize基金会，在那里他说这是充裕的时代，一切都会丰富，并且你会躺在那里，抬起脚，一切你需要的任何心血来潮都会被提供。你可能会处于这种普惠基本收入的情境中，在那个时代我们有了充足的一切。一切都为你提供，你可以做任何事，每个人都可以坐在一边玩生成的世界各地游戏。你知道的，最。
I mean, if you compare now to, like, let's say, even, let's say, 50 years ago, think about it. Like, you can already order food delivered to you. You can have a famous chef cook your food, have it delivered to you. Watch on your large screen TV, a $100 million movie that was made by Steven Spielberg, and then sleep in your bed, which is monitoring all your vitals while you sleep. Like, we already live, like, unbelievable digital, like, gods. And what's going to happen next is unbelievable.
我是说，如果你把现在跟，比如说，50年前比较一下，你就能想象。你可以直接点餐，食物会直接送到你家。你还可以请一个著名厨师为你烹制美食，并且送货到你家。你可以在大电视屏幕上看一部由史蒂芬·斯皮尔伯格导演，耗资上亿美元的电影，然后在床上休息，床可以监控你的所有生命体征。我们已经在数字世界里过着难以置信而又令人敬畏的生活，而接下来会发生令人难以置信的事情。
I guess the main thing that so many people are uncertain about is what will. Could this have a negative effect on their lives? Like, for instance, if you're a journalist, there's no reason to hire a journalist anymore. You can just say, hey, Chachi, BT, there was this incident that happened today. Summarize it for me and put it running it in the paper. Like, unless you're an investigative journalist, well. You're a god.
我想，让那么多人不确定的主要事情是什么将会发生。这会对他们的生活产生负面影响吗？比如，如果你是一名记者，就没有必要再雇用记者了。你只需要说：“嘿，Chachi，BT，今天发生了这件事情。给我总结一下，放到报纸上。”除非你是调查记者，否则你就是神。
I was about to say that, right? I actually think the court of journalism has gone downhill a lot because the whole business model has been transformed by Google in that it's just how many clicks and views of a page you've got and how many added impressions you've got. And as a result of that, it's really about, can you write a real clickbait headline that gets people to click on a link, right? And the actual journalism has been reduced to 500 words. And you probably know better than anyone. It's very hard to get more than one idea across 500 words. So what's actually been lost is the actual narrative of what actually is happening in the world. I'm a big dinner. I was made one of the hundred influencers at one point and so I could post really long stuff they ever would have read. I wouldn't publish every week. I would publish once a year something that would be like 85 pages long. And I'd try and actually string to get the narrative of actually what's going on. And they actually had a remarkable pick up.
我本来就想说这个，对吧？我认为新闻法庭已经大不如前了，因为整个商业模式已经被谷歌改变了，现在只看你有多少点击量和页面浏览量以及多少增加的印象数。结果就是，你是否能写出一个真正的标题，让人们点击链接呢，对吧？而实际的新闻内容已经缩小到了500字。你可能比任何人都了解。用500字传达一个以上的想法非常困难。因此，实际上失去的是关于世界上发生了什么的真正叙述。我是一个重要人物。曾经被列为百大影响者之一，所以我可以发布真正长的东西，他们可能永远都不会去看。我不会每周都发布。我每年发一次，长度可能达到85页，试图真正梳理出正在发生的事情的叙述。他们确实有了卓越的进展。
Like, you know, I had an article that was read by a million people in two days when far around the world. So I actually think that there is a lost part of journalism, which is more of the long story narrative, the investigative piece and so forth. I think the quality of journalism's dropped dramatically. So I think there's still a place for journalism that chat GPD won't feel. But I think that run of the mills sort of stuff like, you know, the sports scores and comment on the baseball game or, you know, a stock market going up or down or world events or whatever. I think a lot of that can potentially at a very basic level be done by software and probably already is in a fairly big way. But I think that there will be a place for. Yeah fire level, more sophisticated work that the AI won't do.
你知道的，我的一篇文章在两天内被全球数百万人阅读。因此，我认为新闻业失去了一种更长故事叙述、调查报导等的一部分。我认为新闻业的质量已经大幅下降。因此，我认为仍有一些地方需要新闻业的存在，这是人工智能无法替代的。但我认为那些实际的东西比如体育比分和棒球比赛的评论、股市上下波动或各种世界事件等，很多就可以通过软件实现了，实际上也已经在相当大的程度上实现了。但我认为将来仍然会有一些高级的、需要人类处理的工作，这是人工智能所不能替代的。
Let's say you're 25 years old and you don't want a traditional job, you want to be a freelancer. What would you say are like the four or five professions where someone even in the US could make a living, could make a good living as a young person?
假设你现在25岁，不想从事传统工作，而是想成为一名自由职业者。你认为在美国，有哪些四五个职业能让一个年轻人谋生，甚至可以过上不错的生活呢？
Well, the three big ones right now, as she used her interface design, game development and programming. They're the ones that the top earners for freelancing. I think product management is a huge industry that's taking off with, I mean, 15 years ago, the title of the role wasn't even around. But now every tech company in the world is sucking in product managers and product managers are basically a mini-CEO of something. So it's a multifaceted jack-of-all-trade sort of profession. And I think, you know, those sort of skills.
嗯，现在最重要的三个领域，她用的是界面设计、游戏开发和编程。它们是自由职业者获得最高收入的领域。我认为产品管理是一个巨大的行业正在崛起，我是说，15年前，这个职位的头衔甚至都不存在。但现在，全球每个科技公司都在吸纳产品经理，而产品经理基本上是某些东西的迷你CEO。因此，这是一种多方面的全能职业。我认为，你知道这些技能。
I mean, the AI is going to take a bit of time, I think, to be able to reach human level or the aesthetics and be able to decide how products should actually be built properly. I mean, it's very good at looking at all the world's content on the internet and then going, OK, based upon that, I can do something at the top level in any field. But I think, you know, tastes change and human behavior changes.
我觉得，人工智能还需要一段时间才能达到人类水平的审美和决定如何正确地建造产品。它确实擅长浏览互联网上的所有内容，然后说，“好的，基于这个，我可以在任何领域的顶级做出一些东西。”但是，我认为，口味和人类行为是会改变的。
And I also think you're going to get a bit of a reflexive thing happening on the internet. The big thing I think is going to happen is this whole open world that's been created because of Google and search engine optimization where, you know, everyone that produced great content put it on the internet for free, Google will index it and then kind of monetize it by displaying ads when you search for stuff. I think that whole model is going to implode.
我还觉得你在网络上会发生一些自我反应的事情。我认为将发生的最大的事情是由于谷歌和搜索引擎优化所创造的整个开放世界，即每个人都可以免费在互联网上发布优质的内容，谷歌将对其进行索引，而在你搜索东西时则通过展示广告来进行盈利。我认为这整个模式将会崩溃。
I think all the data sets are going to go private. I think people are going to turn off their logged out web pages because Google is going to, I think, in a very much an existential moment right now. There's a finite amount of search traffic in the world. So you and I, there's a finite number of things we actually interested in searching for every day, right? And a lot of that has now been deviated to chat GPT or similar. Or, or will be like, I think I think chat GPT is, even though it's the fastest growing app ever, it's still a lot of people don't use it every day, but they will.
我认为所有的数据集都会变成私有的。我认为人们会关闭他们的已注销网页，因为谷歌现在正在经历一个非常关键的时刻。世界上的搜索流量是有限的。所以，你和我，我们每天真正感兴趣的搜索内容数量是有限的，对吧？现在，其中很多已经转移到了聊天GPT或相似的平台。我认为，尽管聊天GPT是最快增长的应用程序，但仍有很多人不会每天使用它，但他们将会使用它。
All the next 12 months will be bigger in terms of change than the launch of the commercial internet, 94.95. I mean, 94 was the year the geeks had email addresses. 95 was the year you grandmother had an email address and everything changed forever over on sign online. Yeah. Next 12 months are going to be just even bigger than that.
未来12个月的变化将比商业互联网的推出94.95年更大。我的意思是，94年极客们拥有电子邮件地址。95年您的祖母也有了电子邮件地址，一切都在在线标志下永远改变了。是的，接下来的12个月甚至会比那还要更大。
So I can, so I can guarantee that Google is going to lose a lot of search volume. Because the tolerance for people to see 53 ads when searching for something, I mean, you've got a Google now that's ridiculous. You say flowers, Sydney and back. You've got 53 ads on this page and you're going to keep scrolling down before you see any relevant content. And the content you do see is all been tweaked to kind of generate Google more money because when Google launches their algorithm changes, they did one just actually a few weeks ago. What they're doing is they're not cutting back on web spam. They're actually A, B testing revenue. So they're rerouting the internet just to make Google more money. So it's all, yeah, that's kind of happening there.
我可以保证，谷歌搜索的流量会大幅减少。因为当人们搜索某些内容时，他们不希望看到53个广告，这已经变得很荒谬了。你搜索“悉尼花店”，结果页面上出现了53个广告，你必须一直向下滑动才能看到与搜索内容相关的信息。而你看到的内容都是被调整过的，以帮助谷歌赚更多钱。他们最近进行了一次算法改变，但他们并没有减少网络垃圾的数量，而是在不断地测试如何赚更多的收入。所以，这些都是正在发生的事情。
But the point is that no one's going to be tolerating that heavily ad-soaked model for search. It's, you know, chat GBT is very clean. There's no ads, right? And so I think what's going to happen is, you know, anything you put publicly on the internet is going to be sucked down by the AI or multiple AI's. And so a lot of these companies that do produce, you know, new data that is important and interesting. Well, have you? They're going to close that off.
但重点是没人会容忍那种被广告充斥的搜索模式。你知道，聊天GBT非常干净，没有广告，对吧？所以我认为将来会发生的是，你在公共互联网上发布的所有内容都会被人工智能或多个人工智能吞噬。因此，很多生产重要和有趣新数据的公司，他们会关闭这一功能。
They're not going to shut to Google anymore. Because the traditional Google search engine is going to be less relevant and Google's never really existential crisis because it won't get a throw to somebody that adds people. So I think it's because I mean, think about it, you know, you give it two, three, four years from now. You know, if I'm a scientific researcher and I publish a paper, you know, the AI will suck that down in a nanosecond and then potentially commercialize it somehow, right? So people are going to be unwilling to share content online and they're going to keep those data sets private and monetize them in other ways rather than, you know, through.
他们不会再关闭谷歌了。因为传统的谷歌搜索引擎将变得不那么重要，谷歌并没有真正的存在危机，因为它不会把人们添加到其他人那里。所以我认为是因为，你想想看，你知道，再过两三四年。如果我是一个科学研究员并发表了一篇论文，你知道，人工智能将在一瞬间将其吞掉，然后可能以某种方式商业化，对吧？所以人们将不愿意在网上共享内容，他们将保持这些数据集私人化，并通过其他方式进行货币化，而不是通过。
And also the AI has learned from all the public data that's out there. So like the AI presumably has read every Wikipedia post as read every Reddit post as read, you know, most blogs. So, you know, when you ask Google a question, one third of those questions, you probably end up on Wikipedia as the answer. So you know, Google's like a way station to Wikipedia for about a third of the questions that are asked. So to some extent now, chat GPT just skips that whole thing and just answers you directly.
而且AI已经从所有公开的数据中学习了。就像AI阅读了每篇维基百科文章、reddit文章和大多数博客一样。所以，当你问谷歌一个问题时，三分之一的问题你可能会得到维基百科的答案。因此，谷歌是约三分之一的问题通往维基百科的中转站。所以现在，Chat GPT在某种程度上跳过了这一整个过程，直接回答你的问题。
Yeah, well, I mean, Google does that in a very cunning way. So what they do is Wikipedia is shown there as a token bit of organic content to make it look like they're actually showing you relevant information rather than just ads. And because Wikipedia is not a commercial laugh at. So that's what I kind of ranks there all the time. But yeah, I certainly get your point. But I just think I think all the data sets are going to go private. I think the whole model is going to change. The Google model is going to change. Search is going to move to more of a chat interface and the voice driven chat interface. Yeah, the next version of Siri is going to be pretty crazy. And we'll see where it ends up.
嗯，我觉得谷歌以一种非常狡猾的方式来做这件事。他们在那里展示维基百科，以此作为有机内容的标记，让人觉得他们实际上正在向您展示相关信息而不仅仅是广告。而且因为维基百科不是商业嘲笑的对象。所以我在那里常常看到它。但是，我当然理解你的观点。我只是认为所有数据集将会变得私有化。我认为整个模式都将会改变。谷歌的模式也将会改变。搜索将会转向更多的聊天界面和语音驱动的聊天界面。是的，下一个版本的Siri将会很疯狂。我们将会看到它的发展。
How is freelance.com going to change as a result of AI? I think it's incredibly beneficial for us because number one, the supply of skilled labor is desperately needed worldwide. That's the whole thesis behind freelancer. And now that that supply of skilled labor is going up dramatically. People are increasingly time poor and need people to do things for them.
自由职业者网(freelance.com)将如何因AI而改变？我认为这对我们来说非常有益，因为首先，全球急需熟练劳动力。这是自由职业者的整个论点。现在，熟练劳动力的供应量正在急剧增加。人们的时间越来越匮乏，需要别人为他们做事。
So take the example of my mother. Like she needs to think things down all the time. And she's not going to sit down and figure out the journey or what have you even if it gets, even if the interface gets really, really nice and easy, she's not going to be figured out how to draw an illustration, resize it, put it up on a website, maintain it, you know, whatever. It's not going to happen. So someone's going to have to do all that work, sort of work. And the other thing is, the ability for us to personalize content for you to help you get things done is extreme, right?
那么，以我母亲为例。她总需要动脑筋把事情琢磨透。就算接口设计得再好用、再简单，她也不会自己去想如何绘制插图，改变大小，放到网站上，并且维护它。这是不可能的。所以，必须有人来做这些工作。另外，针对您的需求为您个性化定制内容，帮助您完成任务的能力是非常强大的，对吧？
We've got a whole bunch of AI being deployed right across the website right now. So for example, you type your project description, you know, kind of what you want done. Most people don't know what they want done. Most people come and they go, I want to build a website, but they don't know the functionality that they want on that website. They don't know what platform to select. And building a website is how long as a piece of string it could be a $50 website, it could be a $500,000 website. It really depends how complex and so forth. But the ability for the AI to help you with that job spec and write the job spec out for you and iterate over that and show you a mood board and do you like that? Do you not like that? And then basically help you find the best freelancer that's specific for that and then structure the product development plan, write the technical specification, all that stuff can be done automatically.
我们现在在整个网站上部署了一整套人工智能。例如，您输入您的项目描述，您知道，您想做什么。大多数人不知道他们想做什么。大多数人来了又走，他们说，我想建立一个网站，但他们不知道他们想要的网站功能。他们不知道选择哪个平台。建立一个网站需要多长时间，就像一条绳子一样，它可以是一个50美元的网站，也可以是一个500,000美元的网站。这真的取决于它的复杂程度等等。但人工智能帮助您完成这项工作规格并为您编写工作规范的能力，并迭代该过程并为您展示情绪板，您喜欢那个吗？你不喜欢那个吗？然后基本上帮助您找到最好的特定自由职业者，然后构建产品开发计划，编写技术规范，所有这些东西都可以自动完成。
And so that's on the entrepreneur side. I would imagine also on the freelancer side, look, a lot of people are from countries where English may not be their native language. So even just structuring a proposal, it's going to help them. It's funny you mentioned that. We've got a feature pushing the action next week where the chat interface will magically transcribe your voice and your typing to a different language. And so you can be.
所以，这是企业家的角度。我想自由职业者也一样，很多人来自英语不是母语的国家。因此，即使只是构建一个建议，这将对他们有所帮助。很有趣，你提到了这一点。我们正在推出一个功能，下周即将推出，聊天界面可以神奇地将你的语音和打字转录成不同的语言。因此，你可以愉快地使用。
That's really fascinating. You have very poor grass, but English and you can now speak fluently in English by voice and it would pop out the chat side and vice versa. So that's all going on. I'm loving a week from now. It's all moving so fast and it's going to be interesting to see all the changes that happen and I'm still trying to decide whether, well, I think if you're like, if you have a brand like freelancer.com, AI is not going to suddenly make its own brand. It's not going to become freelancer.com. Freelancer, Upwork, a few of the winners in the freelancing space will continue to be that way. It's not going to recreate Uber. Uber will still be Uber.
真的很迷人。虽然你的英语很差，但现在你能流利地说英语并且能够轻松地聊天。一切都在发生着。我期待着从现在开始的一周，一切都非常快速，看到那些变化会很有趣。我还在努力决定，如果你像自由职业者网这样有一个品牌，人工智能也不会突然产生自己的品牌，也不会成为自由职业者网。自由职业者网、Upwork等这些自由职业领域的胜者们将会继续保持这样的地位。它不会再创造出新的优步，优步仍将是优步。
So in terms of companies that have already made it through and have become big brands, they've kind of survived the AI apocalypse that might be coming for industries. But I wonder what industries will just basically shut down. You know, again, like you were mentioning like basic graphic design. It's not shut down, but it's changed. You can't just like design stationary. You actually have to build the app and design the app now for people. And so industries are going to more, skill sets are going to change, but it's going to be interesting.
所以就已经成功成为知名品牌的公司而言，它们已经度过了可能正在笼罩产业的AI启示录。但我想知道哪些产业将基本上关闭。就像你提到的基本平面设计一样。它没有关闭，但它已经改变了。你不能只是设计信纸。现在你必须为人们构建应用程序并设计应用程序。因此，产业将会更加多样化，技能也将会改变，这将会是很有趣的。
Well, I had a thought about that. I think the industries that have a creative element to it or a human connection to it or really a higher level critical thinking to it that I think we've just got the stack.
嗯，我对此有想法。我认为，那些有创造性元素、人类联系或需要更高水平批判性思维的行业，我认为我们仅仅掌握了其基础。
There are some industries though where I think it's very much rule driven, for example, accounting. If you're an accountant, basically the government sets the rules and your job as an accountant is to basically not be creative, right? You'll just follow the rules, right?
有一些行业，我认为非常注重规则，比如会计行业。如果你是一名会计师，基本上政府设定规则，你的工作就是不要有创意，对吧？你只需遵循规定，对吧？
And I think there's professions like that, which I think will just be done in a nanosecond through an app and in real time. And I think those jobs are going to change quite dramatically. I think a lot of legal works are going to change.
我认为有一些职业是这样的，我觉得将通过一个应用程序在纳秒内实时完成。我认为这些工作将会发生相当大的变化。我认为许多法律工作将会改变。
Certainly, at one end, you can be creative and argue and court and this at the other bar, but a lot of legal work is drafting. And right now I can get chat to you. I'm not sure if you've ordered draft me any document I want. It'll write me a patent. It will write me a nondesclosure agreement. Write me a series eights, stop subscription agreement and it'll do a pretty good job.
当然，在一端，你可以发挥创意，争论和辩护，在另一端，很多法律工作是起草文件。现在，我可以与你交谈。我不确定你是否已经为我起草了任何文件，我想写一份专利申请，一份保密协议，一份八级停止订阅协议，而且它会做得非常好。
I actually sat down with a bunch of lawyers last week in Vancouver and they said, oh, I bet it can't draft a escrow agreement for a share purchase in the province of British Columbia because there's a few little tips and tricks that you've got to follow, right? And I hit the button and you said, the guy's face just when he looked at his partner and he said, just as well I'm retiring next year, it's your problem now.
上周我实际上和一群律师在温哥华坐下来聊天，他们说：哦，我打赌这个东西无法为不列颠哥伦比亚省的股份购买拟定一个代管协议，因为你必须遵循一些小窍门，是吧？然后我按下按钮，你就说，那个人看着他的伙伴时的表情，说：“幸好明年我退休了，这是你的问题了。”
No, it's true. There's already a company set up that will AI does all the back and forth if you get like a parking ticket or a driving ticket. They will handle all the legal work for you just using AI. Yeah, I think there'll be explosion of lawsuits because it's so simple now to, for the AI to create a suit and to file it.
不，这是真的。已经有一家设置了公司，如果你得到停车或驾驶罚单，人工智能将负责所有的往返。他们将使用人工智能来处理你的所有法律工作。是的，我认为会有大量的诉讼爆发，因为现在使用人工智能创建起诉和提交起诉是如此简单。
And I think there'll be explosion of defense, you know, apps to defend against these lawsuits. I think legal system will be busy, very, very busy because the cost to enter a suit is usually quite expensive and now that that barriers drop because the AI will do the drafting for you.
我认为会有很多防御应用程序来抵御这些诉讼，你知道。我认为法律系统会非常，非常忙碌，因为起诉的成本通常相当昂贵，现在人工智能会为您起草，这些壁垒就会降低。
Now, do you think with all this innovation happening and you take AI and then you take the innovation that I've already incurring on in other industries like biotech and so on and robotics and every industry. Do you think that innovation will be enough to perhaps slow down what's happening because you know, my opinion is it was a shame the global economy shut down for almost two whole years.
现在，你认为所有这些创新的发生，以及你采用了AI，还有我已经在其他行业中产生的生物技术、机器人技术等创新。你觉得这些创新足以减缓正在发生的事情吗？因为我的观点是，全球经济停滞了将近两年实在是非常可惜。
And we still don't know the full ramifications of that. Part of the ramifications is that we went from 3% freelancers to 40% freelancers. Other ramifications, other ramifications we just don't know, like the effect on currencies and so on.
我们仍然不知道这件事情的全部影响。影响之一是我们的自由职业者比例从3%上升到了40%。其他影响，还有其他我们不知道的影响，比如对货币的影响等等。
So do you think though the pace of innovation will be fast enough to kind of reverse whatever negative effect we have from shutting down the economy for a couple of years? Well, yeah, well, I think freelancing is incredibly deflationary and I think it answers to AI probably one of the most deflationary things in human history.
那么，您认为创新的速度是否足够快，以扭转因关闭经济两年而产生的任何负面影响呢？嗯，我认为自由职业非常通货紧缩，它可能是人类历史上最通货紧缩的事情之一，也解决了人工智能的问题。
So I think, yeah, I think they will certainly have an effect to try and slow some of the inflationary pressures. But I think the Fed is kind of damned if they do, damned if they don't, right?
我觉得，对，我觉得它们肯定会对缓解通货膨胀压力起作用。但我认为美联储有点左右为难，要么这样做，要么那样做，对吧？
I mean, typically you have to raise the policy rate, I think about four or five percent above the real inflation rate in order to kind of, you know, stem inflation in a traditional sort of textbook sense. And I think the numbers were six or seven percent roughly in terms of inflation is being reported.
我的意思是，通常你必须将政策利率提高四到五个百分点以上，以应对传统教科书意义上的通货膨胀。我认为，通常需要以比实际通货膨胀率高出四到五个百分点的程度加以控制。而根据报告，通货膨胀的数字是大约六到七个百分点左右。
The real number is probably close to 15. And you know, they raised rates to 4.75 in the fastest hike. I think in history and Silicon Valley bank blew up, right? And Silicon Valley bank was doing phenomenally well because it banks will attack companies, right?
实际数字可能接近15。你知道吗，他们迅速加息至4.75。我想是历史上最快的加息。接着Silicon Valley银行崩溃了，是吧？而Silicon Valley银行本来做得非常棒，因为它让被攻击的公司银行。
It went from 60 billion to deposit, 190 billion to deposits in two years. So it was flush cash. It just had nothing to lend to because those deposits are liabilities on the bank's balance sheet. And so they're going to have assets that are going to learn it out.
它在两年内从600亿增加到了1900亿的存款，所以它的现金很充裕。但它没有任何借出去的资产，因为那些存款在银行的资产负债表上是负债。所以他们需要一些资产来借出去。
And they couldn't figure out what to do with it. So they stuck 82 billion into mortgage back securities and average yield at 1.56 percent over 10 years, which meant your money back in 10 years, no problem. But it start ups burn cash all the time and then quarter by quarter in the start kept on burning and then they kind of had a bit of a liquidity crisis when the VCs broke ranks and said, pull your money out.
他们不知道该怎么处理它。所以他们将820亿美元投入抵押贷款支持证券，平均收益率为1.56％，期限为10年，这意味着您可以在10年内收回本金，没有问题。但是初创公司一直在烧钱，然后季度季度地继续烧钱，当风险投资家们不再支持时，他们遇到了一些流动性危机。
So I think all the banks around the US can have that problem. So the Fed, if the Fed keeps raising rates, you're going to blow up a bunch more banks. If your lower rates, you inflation is going to be out of control. And the US debt is mathematically unpayable at the current level.
我认为全美的所有银行都可能面临这个问题。所以，如果联邦储备委员会继续加息，就会导致更多的银行破产。如果降低利率，通胀就会失控。而美国的债务在当前水平上是无法偿还的。
So you know, in some way, I think the US government wants a lot of inflation to continue so that the debt problem becomes smaller and smaller and smaller in, you know, when you, you know, that's what I want to policy rate of 2 percent usually because after 30 years, the debt problems half as big because you've inflated it away. So I think they kind of want to run inflation hot for a few more years and then, and that's why you've got these policies like green, you deal and, you know, reparations for everyone and, you know, education, you know, wave of student debt and so forth. Because I think they want to run inflation hot to make the US debt problem go away and then they'll do some sort of reset with a central bank digital currency, maybe with some loose backing by gold or whatever, whatever, what have you.
你知道，我认为美国政府希望通货膨胀继续增加，这样债务问题就变得越来越小，因为你知道，在30年后，债务问题会缩小一半，因为你已经通货膨胀了它。所以我认为他们想再过几年进行高通胀政策，这就是为什么你有这些政策，比如绿色协议，为每个人赔偿，教育，学生负债浪潮等等。因为我认为他们想通过高通胀来解决美国的债务问题，然后他们会通过中央银行数字货币进行重置，可能会有一些松散的黄金支持或其他支持。
But certainly a pretty dynamic space right now. But yeah, I mean, these are very, you know, freelancing, you know, freelancing online and the AI and software and so forth, very deflationary forces. So we'll see where it lands up.
无疑地，现在是一个非常充满活力的时期。不过，我想说，这些都是一些非常具有放任自由、在线自由工作、人工智能和软件等等的通货紧缩力量。因此，我们将看看它最终会造成怎样的影响。
Well, you know, it's interesting because before they dropped all this money on the economy during the pandemic, they were fighting deflation. Like that was what was keeping the Federal Reserve governors up at night was worries about deflation because of technology changes because of freelancing around the world and so on.
嗯，你知道的，在疫情期间他们在经济上投入大量资金之前，他们一直在对抗通货紧缩。这使得联邦储备委员会的委员们晚上担心的是由于技术变革和全球自由职业者的存在而引起的通货紧缩问题。
And they kind of got their wish of inflation, but maybe, maybe too much and hopefully some of it is transitory because supply lines were all shut down, but, you know, we're going to see. It's going to be, it's definitely going to be an interesting time.
他们希望通货膨胀，现在好像实现了，但可能有点过头了。希望其中的一些是暂时的，因为供应链都被关闭了。不过，我们会看到的。这绝对会是一个有趣的时期。
I mean, the problem is printing money won't dig any more copper out of the ground. I mean, faster, really. Yeah. But that's why we got off all the, you know, we got off all the gold standards because we didn't have enough gold to pay to pay our debts.
我的意思是，印钞票并不能挖出更多的铜矿。我是说，更快，也就是说。是的。但这就是我们放弃所有金本位的原因，因为我们没有足够的黄金来偿还债务。
Well, I mean, getting off the gold standard was phenomenal for the US in terms of driving economic growth, right? Basically meant you could just print money and, you know, you know, you're playing monopoly in the banker and you print your own money. You can buy everything on the board. It's been, it was phenomenal for the US, but now we're going to, you know, obviously a few things got deep eggs such as, you know, wages and now we're getting the ramifications of that because it's going off for so long. So I think there's going to be some sort of a, it's going to have to be some sort of reset in the next five years or so.
我是说，美国放弃黄金标准对于推动经济增长来说是非常了不起的，对吧？基本上意味着你可以随便印钱，就像在玩大富翁，你是银行家，你可以自己印钱，你可以在游戏版上买任何东西。这对美国来说非常了不起，但是现在我们正在面临一些问题，比如工资，现在我们正在深刻感受这些问题，因为它已经持续了很长时间了。所以我认为，在未来五年左右，必须有一种重置的方式。
Do you think oil will get deep ag? Do you think like, you know, with China kind of brokering relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran and Russia and so on? Do you think at some point the petro dollar won't exist?
你觉得石油会降价吗？你觉得，就像中国在与沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、俄罗斯等国建立关系，你觉得石油美元可能不会存在吗？
Well, that's the talk of the week, right? Because I think the first transaction just went through in Rembebee last night and Saudi is now shifting its focus to it. Oh, really? I didn't know that.
哦，那是这周的话题喽，对吧？因为我刚听说昨晚在Rembebee完成了第一笔交易，沙特现在正把重点放在那里。真的吗？我不知道呢。
Yeah, it was on Twitter or so. I think they're focused in terms of security alliance alliance to China, along with many other countries in the world. I think a lot of, I think one of the mistakes the US did was the sanctions program against Russia because, you know, confiscating, you know, oligarchs, boats around the world. I think it freaked out a lot of countries where you've got, you know, a lot of people in power have got a lot of toys around the world parked in the Mediterranean or have you and I think that people greatly concerned. But I think we'll see where it ends up, but I think we're obviously heading to a very confrontational point in human history.
对啊，这是在推特上说的。我觉得他们关注的是与中国的安全联盟，和世界上许多其他国家一样。我觉得美国的一个错误是制裁俄罗斯，因为你知道，没收那些富豪在世界各地的船只。我认为这让很多国家感到惊慌，因为你知道，许多处于权力地位的人在地中海或其他地方拥有很多玩具，这让人们非常担忧。但我认为我们会看到事态会发展到什么地步，不过显然我们正走向人类历史上非常对抗的时刻。
I mean, we had one of the greatest peacetime periods in modern times, you know, since World War II really has been a few kind of, you know, minor wars around the world, but I think we're heading to a confrontation. I think the Thessically's trap where you've got a monopolar world and then suddenly there's a great threat from a usurper and that was China.
我的意思是，我们经历了现代历史上最伟大的和平时期之一，你知道的，自第二次世界大战以来，世界各地发生了一些小规模的战争，但我认为我们正在走向一场对立。我认为特塞利克的陷阱是指单极世界，突然有一个来自篡位者的巨大威胁，这就是中国。
And I think Trump kind of looked at that and said, okay, well, his advisor has told him that I think about 13 critical technologies that the US has that China doesn't have, you know, they can punch out, you know, electronics and make chips and so forth, but they don't come back to the machines, they make the chips, you know, and, you know, certain types of, you know, superconductors and AI and this at the other end. So he was like, okay, well, let's try and start a bit of a trade war here to try and temper the, you know, temper the usurper. But I think now it's kind of been a bit mismanaged and I think there's too many people turning against the US. So it's a pretty scary time.
我认为特朗普看到这一点，他说，好吧，他的顾问告诉他，美国有大约13种关键技术是中国没有的。他们可以生产电子产品和芯片，但他们生产的芯片没有配套机械设备。这些技术还包括超导体和人工智能等。他觉得可以试着发起一场贸易战来遏制中国。但我认为现在情况有点失控，太多人开始反对美国了。这是一个相当可怕的时期。
So what do you worry about in terms of like the next five years, you know, as you have your pulse on the global economy because you see so much of what's going on in the freelancing world, what worries you over the next five years? Like you personally.
那么，从您对全球经济的掌握来看，在接下来的五年里您忧虑什么呢？因为您在自由职业领域看到了许多事情，所以会有什么令您担忧的事情发生吗？就像您个人而言。
Well, it's, are we going to go war first or will the robots feel figure out where we're used to space first? Are we going to go to a Skynet situation first or are we going to go to, you know, a hot war basically? I think they're too big risks right now. Yeah.
嗯，我们是要先打仗还是让机器人先找出我们习惯于空间呢？我们是要先遇上类似《终结者》中的SkyNet，还是基本上一场热战呢？我认为现在存在这两个很大的风险。是的。
And economically, what are you worried about? Well, I mean, inflation will cause a lot of social unrest. I mean, the thing is, you know, back in the global financial crisis when they printed money, they printed money in a way, you know, through quantitative easing and so forth, where it kind of flew, it kind of flowed into sort of hedge funds and so forth, right? And so the asset prices got inflated. So, you know, the stocks went up and, you know, everything from fine art to classic cars and watches, all that sort of stuff inflated, right?
你经济上担心什么？我的意思是通货膨胀会导致很多社会动荡。我是说，在全球金融危机时，他们通过量化宽松等方式印了很多钱，这些钱流入了对冲基金等领域，因此资产价格被抬高了。所以股票涨了，从艺术品到经典汽车和手表的所有东西都涨价了，对吧。
This time around when they did the stimulus for COVID, they did it in a way where food prices inflated because they're just in a broad base sort of stimulus. So, so I think the issue now is that, you know, when food goes up too much, people don't eat and I think someone said that we're only, somebody hot meals away from revolution. I think you're starting to see in countries like Sri Lanka where the effects of inflation and you know, it's the country can't take it anymore and suddenly the president's palace, everyone, you know, goes in there and starts going crazy and ripping it down because because people can't eat and I think that is going to become a broader problem around the world. We have a little social unrest if the price of food keeps going up and, you know, the price of food is linked to the price of oil. It's come down a bit but that could spike in a variety of different scenarios, particularly with the Saudis kind of pivoting. You know, if there's a revolution in Saudi Arabia in the next couple of months, it could be a catastrophic for the world in terms of the ability to feed each other and power things.
这一次 COVID 的刺激措施，使食品价格上涨，因为这是一种广泛基础的刺激措施。所以，我认为现在的问题是，当食品价格上涨时，人们不吃东西，就像有人说的那样，我们离革命仅仅几顿热饭而已。我认为您将开始看到像斯里兰卡这样的国家受到通货膨胀的影响，这个国家再也无法承受了，突然总统宫殿里的每个人都疯狂起来，开始推翻，因为人们无法吃饭了，这将成为世界范围内更广泛的问题。如果食品价格持续上涨，我们将看到一些社会动荡，而食品价格与石油价格密切相关。它已经下降了一点，但在各种不同的情况下可能会反弹，特别是沙特的转变。如果未来几个月内沙特发生革命，对于世界互相喂养和发电的能力而言，这可能是灾难性的。
So, as an outsteel man like take the opposite side, what encourages you to not just lie and be crying every day and what gets you to work? It's amazing the things you can create now and how easy it is to create it. You know, you determine your dream into reality now. It's just so simple, right? You can come up with a concept. You've got freelancers to help you. You've got AI to help you. It's so cheap. I mean, when I started my career in tech, you had to go out and raise a series of a venture round of $5 million and you know, it took 18 months if you're lucky at all to get any money together and it was just so hard and so slow to sell anything.
作为一个面对挑战的人，是什么鼓励你不仅仅是哭泣和撒谎，而是去努力工作？现在你可以创造出令人惊叹的事物，而且创造它们变得如此容易。你知道，现在你可以把梦想变成现实。这很简单，对吧？你可以想出一个概念，有自由职业者来帮助你，还有人工智能来帮助你，而且成本非常低。我的职业生涯是从科技行业开始的，当时你必须筹集500万美元的风险资本，并且如果你有幸筹到了资金，需要18个月的时间，很难卖出任何东西。
Now the world is hyper connected. You've got a great product of service. You know, things can just take off overnight. I mean, like, look at chat GPT, right? I mean, that that that that has a product that's the fastest growth of any product in history. Right? I mean, there's companies around the world that make a billion dollars of revenue in their first year. What's a company you've seen literally created on freelancer.com that has gone to like amazing heights that you want to next back? There's one that one of my co-parts told me last week, there's a lady in Estonia and she's come up with, she's got a great product of of of of bisses, like a range of, you know, aromatic drinks and she came and just got a logo done and and next minute she's got a website built whatever and and and we've got a project management service that will just do everything for you.
现在世界处于超级联网状态，你们有一个很棒的产品或服务。你知道，事情只需要一夜之间就能起飞。我是说，看看聊天GPT，对吧？我的意思是，它的产品是历史上增长最快的产品之一。对吧？我的意思是，世界各地有一些公司在第一年就实现10亿美元的收入。你看到过哪些公司是从freelancer.com上创建的而已经发展到了惊人的高度，并且接下来希望支持的？上周我的一个合伙人告诉我有一个来自爱沙尼亚的女士，她想出了一系列非常棒的混合饮料，只需要设计一个标志以及建立一个网站，我们的项目管理服务就会为你处理其余的事情。
You just pay by the hour thirty five dollars and they're running their entire business now. It's doing sales, doing marketing, doing whatever and she just came into the logo done and she's like, wow, the whole thing's just running itself now, right? So it's just that's what's amazing is if you've, you know, 60 per cent of people last time a sort of survey said they want to be an entrepreneur, six per cent of people actually do it, but your ability and ease of doing it now is just so easy. It's incredible. Like just yeah. It's exciting, the ability to create, you know, products and services of the future and and and see all the crazy things people are doing and things you'd never think of and I think that's that's super exciting.
你只需要支付每小时35美元，他们现在的整个业务都运转良好。他们做销售、做市场营销，还做其他所有事情，而她只是提供了标志设计，发现整个事情现在已经自我运转，是吗？这就是令人惊叹的地方，如果你知道的话，上一次调查显示60%的人都想成为企业家，但实际上只有6%的人能够真正实现，但是现在创业的能力和便利性是如此之高，简直让人难以置信。这是非常令人兴奋的事情，能够创造未来的产品和服务，看到人们做出各种疯狂的事情，以及你从未想过的事情，我认为这是非常令人兴奋的。
Well, they always say that between two countries you either exchange bullets or money and so hopefully the money will be out the the bullets with entrepreneurship and sites like your site freelancer.com which puts all these things together and hopefully that's the direction things go in as opposed to a more confrontational one. You know, look, Matt, thank you so much for coming on the show. I really wanted your perspective on the economy, on freelancing, on, you know, what's going on with AI and and and the relationship to everything you're doing and freelancer.com is a great site. I used it to build a business or I used one of the companies you bought early on. I think it was scripted lands back in 2007. I used it to build a business that did very well.
他们总是说，在两个国家之间要么交换子弹，要么交换金钱。希望像你的网站freelancer.com这样的企业和网站能够让金钱代替子弹，以和平合作的方向前进。Matt，非常感谢你来参加节目。我真的很想听听你对经济、自由职业、人工智能以及你所做的一切与之相关的看法。freelancer.com是一个很棒的网站。我曾用它来建立一家很成功的企业，或者说我曾使用你早期收购的ScriptLance公司，从而取得了很好的效果。
So I always I always appreciate what what you guys do and and and the site and I highly recommend people use it and check it out.
我一直非常欣赏你们所做的一切，网站也很棒。我强烈推荐大家来使用它并了解它。
And thanks once again. Thanks for having me. I look forward to it coming in again sometime in the next few years and we're talking about all the new things that people are doing on the site and what the friends are doing.
再次感谢你，谢谢你邀请我。我期待着在接下来的几年中再次参观，并讨论关于网站上新事物和我的朋友们正在做什么的话题。
Or maybe our AI avatars will come on. It's like my avatar will schedule with your avatar and they'll just talk like they listen to us all day long. So they'll and they train on our words.
也许我们的智能化身会上场。就像我的化身会与你的化身安排时间，他们就像一直倾听着我们的对话。他们会根据我们的话语来进行训练。
So they'll just know how to be like AI James and AI Matt and they'll go on a podcast. Let's do that. I'll be interesting.
所以他们将学会像AI詹姆斯和AI马特一样，然后他们会继续播客。让我们这样做。我会很有趣。