Tesla Engineers Reveal New Features / Tesla Hires for Optimus Production / FSD 14 Article ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Not a Tesla app, put out a new article talking about Tesla's upcoming FSD version 14, and they made it seem as if they had some new information, but I'm not so sure. They said the standout feature of version 14 will be these auto-regressive Transformers. But as far as I know, Tesla's been using this type of transformer now for some time. To verify that, if you go to the Q4 transcript from last year, Elon said I have to say I continue to be amazed by just how effective auto-regressive Transformers are at solving a wide range of problems. And no, auto-aggressive is not a thing they meant regressive. As I understand it, think about these ARTs allowing for better predictions, so they'll use the context of the current scene, whether it's people, dogs, bikes, and from there it helps you to predict the specific path for each object. For the audience, a transformer is a very popular, more recent structure of AI that's now used in a huge number of the tools that you've seen. The reason that they're popular is because Transformers are structured in a way that helps them pay attention to key bits of information and give much better results. You could build chips that are perfectly suited for just one kind of AI model, but if you do that, then you're making them less able to do other things. So no, I don't think these regressive Transformers are anything new for version 14, and then they just went on to talk about the context size which kind of serves as memory which should be increased with version 14.

欢迎来到Electrified节目，我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。最近有一个叫做"Not a Tesla App" 的网站发布了一篇关于特斯拉即将推出的FSD（全自动驾驶）第14版的新文章，他们似乎暗示有一些新的信息，但我对此持怀疑态度。他们表示，第14版的亮点功能是自动回归Transformer。然而，据我所知，特斯拉已经使用这种Transformer有一段时间了。为了验证这个，你可以查看去年第四季度的会议记录，Elon曾说他对自动回归Transformer在解决各种问题时的高效表现感到惊讶。需要说明的是，“auto-aggressive”不是个术语，他们想表达的是“auto-regressive”。据我所知，自动回归Transformer（ART）可以提高预测能力，它利用当前场景中的背景信息，比如人、狗、自行车等，然后帮助预测每个物体的具体路径。 对于观众来说，Transformer是一种非常流行、比较新的AI结构，现在被广泛应用于你所见的许多工具中。它们受欢迎的原因在于其结构能帮助它们关注关键信息，从而实现更好的结果。虽然可以设计芯片以完美适配某一种AI模型，但这样做会限制芯片执行其他任务的能力。因此，我不认为这些回归Transformer对第14版来说是新鲜事。同时，文章还提到了上下文大小，这起到了某种记忆作用，据说在第14版中会有所增加。

There was some breaking news as I was recording, if you search for bought and manufacturing on the Tesla careers page, you will now find 18 job postings for the Tesla bought all in manufacturing, some in Sparks, Nevada, some in Fremont, and some in Palo Alto. Tesla's looking for manufacturing engineers, production supervisors, manufacturing equipment engineers, quality engineers, and a technical program manager for battery manufacturing specifically for the Tesla bought. For the manufacturing control engineer, they'll deliver new manufacturing lines to produce powertrains, energy products, and optimist battery and actuators at Tesla factories.

在我录音时有一些突发新闻，如果你在特斯拉的招聘页面上搜索“bought”和“manufacturing”，你现在会发现有18个关于特斯拉在制造领域招聘的职位。其中一些职位位于内华达州的斯帕克斯，一些在弗里蒙特，还有一些在帕洛阿尔托。特斯拉正在寻找制造工程师、生产主管、制造设备工程师、质量工程师，以及专门负责电池制造的技术项目经理，都是为Tesla bought服务的。对于制造控制工程师来说，他们将负责在特斯拉工厂推出新的生产线，用来生产动力系统、能源产品以及优化电池和执行器。

This role is directly responsible for the design and implementation of these manufacturing lines. What you'll do? Design and launch manufacturing equipment for new products being mass produced for the first time. So I think it's one thing to be told that Tesla is starting production later this year, but it's a different thing to actually see some of the job postings and understand this really is going to happen. So of course this is incredibly exciting as Elon has reiterated that long term optimist will be the majority of Tesla stock valuation. And to have an American company manufacturing one of the first commercial humanoids at scale in America is something that everybody who works at Tesla should be incredibly proud of. Plenty of work ahead, but the pieces are being put in place.

这个角色直接负责这些生产线的设计和实施。你的工作是什么？为第一次大规模生产的新产品设计和启动生产设备。我认为，听说特斯拉将在今年晚些时候开始生产和亲眼看到一些职位招聘信息并理解这确实要发生，是两件不同的事情。当然，这无比令人振奋，因为埃隆一再强调，从长远来看，乐观主义者将构成特斯拉股票估值的大部分。作为一家美国公司，能在美国大规模制造首批商业化的人形机器人，所有在特斯拉工作的人都应该感到无比自豪。虽然还有很多工作需要完成，但是各个部分已经在逐步就位。

Elon is set to meet with Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India next week as he was invited to the US by Trump. Discussions are expected to focus on Tesla's expansion and collaboration with the Indian Space Research Organization with an eye on growing the EV market. Sources are already saying these talks may boost relations, but they may not lead to an immediate announcement or commitment regarding Tesla's manufacturing plans in India. Despite this, sources still indicate Tesla remains keen on entering the Indian market and continues to explore various options. They did talk about Tesla's more affordable upcoming vehicle, the one we don't yet know much about. They said the expectation is that model could enter the Indian market by 2025. In preparation for that, Tesla has been scouting locations for company-owned showrooms across India. But when it comes to local manufacturing in India, it may still be a while for an announcement like that.

埃隆计划下周与印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪会面，此次会面是因为他受到了特朗普邀请访问美国。预计讨论的重点将是特斯拉的扩展计划和与印度空间研究组织的合作，着眼于发展电动汽车市场。消息来源称，这些会谈可能会增进双方关系，但可能不会立即宣布或承诺在印度的制造计划。尽管如此，特斯拉仍然对进入印度市场表现出浓厚兴趣，并在继续探索各种方案。他们还谈到了特斯拉即将推出的一款更实惠的车型，尽管我们目前对此知之甚少。据称，这款车预计将在2025年进入印度市场。为此，特斯拉一直在印度各地寻找自营展厅的地点。不过，至于在印度开展本地制造，类似的宣布可能还需要一段时间。

Tesla's Megapactory in Shanghai is set to officially begin production roughly one week from now on February 11. Tesla is also planning to hold a ceremony to mark the factory's official start of production. As far as we know, CATL is set to be the main supplier and the nameplate capacity is still 40 gigawatt-hours, but I would not be surprised if that number is exceeded at some point in the future based on the size of the factory. And the CN EV post did say this factory mainly produces the Megapack, at least cracking the door open for power wall production there as well.

特斯拉位于上海的超级工厂计划在一周后的2月11日正式开始生产。特斯拉还计划举行一场仪式，以庆祝工厂的正式投产。据我们所知，宁德时代将成为主要供应商，工厂的名义产能仍为40吉瓦时，但考虑到工厂的规模，我不会感到惊讶，如果将来产能超过这一数字。中国电动车网有关文章提到，这家工厂主要生产Megapack，至少也为在此生产Powerwall（家庭储能产品）打开了可能性。

Tesla owners of Silicon Valley did an interview with the director of vehicle engineering for the 3NY and the Model Y program manager. I learned a fair bit of new information from this conversation, so here it is. The Model Y now has its own design, more distinct from the Model 3 because with its scale, it can now develop its own supply chain. Thus, Tesla doesn't have to be as focused on making sure the 3 and the Y use as many parts that are the same as possible. Tesla's keeping the existing blue color in North America for now, but they're working on new colors and they said there will be an announcement soon.

硅谷的特斯拉车主们与3NY车辆工程总监和Model Y项目经理进行了采访。我从这次对话中学到了一些新信息，所以在这里分享一下。Model Y现在拥有更加独特的设计，与Model 3的区别更加明显，因为随着规模的扩大，Model Y可以发展自己的供应链。因此，特斯拉不再需要过多关注3和Y使用尽量多的相同零件。特斯拉目前在北美地区保留现有的蓝色，但他们正在研发新颜色，并表示很快会有公告。

The Tesla logo or the badge being only on the vehicles in China was strictly because of the homologation rules in China. Tesla did not want that front badge in any market, they just want the design to speak for itself. The new official EPA results are in and the range on the new Model Y will be 5% better than the outgoing model. Which would mean going from 311 miles on the outgoing version to 327. Per the usual, Tesla achieved that 5% by improving efficiencies basically everywhere in the vehicle, but one notable change was the brake calipers with the new Model Y.

特斯拉的标志在中国的车辆上出现仅仅是因为中国的认证规则。特斯拉希望车辆的设计能够自己表达，而不想在任何市场使用前置标志。最新的官方EPA测试结果显示，新款Model Y的续航里程将比旧款提高5%，也就是说，从旧款的311英里提升到327英里。特斯拉一如既往地通过提升车辆各个部分的效率实现了这5%的提升，但值得注意的是，新款Model Y在刹车卡钳上做出了改变。

It does have the same suspension as the Model 3 with the frequency selective dampers and they have new braces for increased stiffness to improve the NVH and ride comfort. Tesla has yet another new in-house design this time for the door latch system on the Model 3 that was also carried over to the Model Y, but prior to the new Model 3 they actually got that part from suppliers. The new Model Y will have a better, quieter trunk close because it now has two power struts whereas the outgoing model had a passive strut on the right hand side.

它确实和Model 3使用了相同的悬挂系统，包括频率选择减震器，并增强了支架以提高刚度，从而改善噪音振动舒适性（NVH）和乘坐舒适度。特斯拉这次为Model 3设计了一种全新的车门锁系统，这一设计也应用到了Model Y上。而在新的Model 3之前，这个零件实际上是由供应商提供的。新的Model Y后备箱关闭时更安静，因为它现在配备了两个电动撑杆，而旧型号在右侧使用的是被动撑杆。

Tesla now has the fastest folding seats in the second row in the industry. The standard is about 7 seconds for that function, but Tesla got it down to 4.5 seconds. And guess what, they did that by developing a bespoke gearbox in-house to enable this, so again Tesla could have just accepted the industry standard, but they decided to design a new gearbox in-house. The reason the new Model Y gets the front bumper camera and not the Model 3 is because the Y is a bigger vehicle and it has a bigger blind spot for the front and the hood area of the vehicle so that camera is specifically for smart summon.

特斯拉现在拥有业内最快的第二排座椅折叠功能。标准时间约为7秒，而特斯拉将其缩短到了4.5秒。你知道吗？他们通过自主研发专用变速箱来实现这一点。因此，特斯拉本可以直接采用行业标准，但他们选择了自行设计一个新的变速箱。新的Model Y配备了前保险杠摄像头，而Model 3没有，这是因为Model Y车身更大，前方和引擎盖区域的盲点也更大，因此这个摄像头专门用于智能召唤功能。

It sounds like the Model 3 will not be getting that camera because the blind spot in the front is not as big as the Y in the cyber truck. They moved the rear seat belts forward a bit to make it easier to reach back, and I think this next one is awesome and goes way overlooked so it's a new in-cabin radar to detect and classify passengers. And in Q3 of this year that new radar will allow second row detection so it can detect somebody's heart rate and breathing in the vehicle. So if a child is left in the back seat it can notify the owner, it can turn on the H-rack, it can open the windows and listen to how excited they were about this one.

听起来，Model 3 不会配备那个摄像头，因为前面的盲点不如 Y 和 Cybertruck 那么大。后座安全带的位置稍微向前移动，让乘客更容易够到。我觉得下面这个功能非常出色，常常被忽视：那就是新增加的车内雷达，用来检测和识别乘客。在今年的第三季度，这个新雷达将实现第二排座椅的检测，能够监测车内乘客的心率和呼吸。因此，如果有孩子被遗忘在后排座椅上，系统会通知车主，还能启动空调，打开车窗。想想他们对这个功能有多激动吧。

Yeah, this is one of these technologies that Tesla has just blown up the industry on. It's not as well known as maybe some of the other ones, but it absolutely is because there is a system within cars that tries to detect how big a person is in order to fine tune the airbags and how they're deploying and how they react to the occupant. And it's moderately accurate, but with this system here we've got it exact. So it'll give us another lever to be able to further improve our airbag deployments and our safety restraint systems to get even further in terms of like being able to protect our occupants based on their size and their ergonomics. So a new 4D imaging radar that already offers improved safety and later this year will offer even more safety features as well.

是的，这是特斯拉一项在行业内引起轰动的技术之一。虽然它可能不像其他一些技术那样广为人知，但它确实非常重要。因为车内有一个系统，可以检测驾乘人员的体型，以便更好地调整安全气囊的部署方式及其对乘员的反应。这项技术的准确性中等，但使用了这个系统后，我们可以做到非常精确。因此，它为我们提供了一个新的途径，可以进一步改进我们的安全气囊部署和安全约束系统，以更好地保护根据乘员的体型和人体工程学而设计的驾乘人员。这是一种新型的4D成像雷达，已经在提高安全性方面有所作为，并将在今年晚些时候提供更多的安全功能。

The new Model Y has oscillating air vents, so think just like a fan so you can have the air moving back and forth. They said the HEPA filter and Tesla vehicles are still underrated in terms of size, it's a massive industry leading feature and they said the build quality is now as good as anything in the world through continuous iteration. I will have the full video linked below.

新的 Model Y 具有可摆动的空调出风口，类似于风扇，可以让空气来回流动。 他们说 HEPA 过滤器和特斯拉汽车在尺寸方面仍被低估，这是一个巨大的行业领先功能。他们还提到，通过不断的改进，整车的质量现在已经达到了全球顶级水平。完整视频的链接在下面提供。

Lawmakers in South Carolina are considering a new law that would finally allow direct to consumer EV sales, but it's not because of Tesla and it's the right thing to do, it's actually because of scout motors trying to take the Tesla approach and scout motors has a $2 billion factory planned for South Carolina. So yes, if this law does not change, that would mean the roughly 4000 workers at this new scout factory would have to travel to neighboring states to buy the vehicles they build in the state. As you would expect, many dealer groups and associations are already pushing back significantly against this bill. If you want to follow it, this one is called the South Carolina Consumer Freedom Act.

南卡罗来纳州的立法者正在考虑一项新的法律，该法律将最终允许电动车直接销售给消费者。不过，这并不是因为特斯拉，也不单纯是因为这样做才是对的，而实际上是因为Scout Motors公司尝试采用特斯拉的销售方式。Scout Motors计划在南卡罗来纳州建设一个价值20亿美元的工厂。因此，如果这项法律不改变，那么这意味着新工厂的大约4000名工人将不得不前往周边州购买他们自己在州内生产的车辆。不出所料，许多汽车经销商集团和协会已经在大力反对这项议案。如果你想关注，这项法律被称为"南卡罗来纳消费者自由法案"。

Right now we have about 30 Toyota and Lexus dealers from across the US descending on Capitol Hill in an attempt to avoid what they're calling onerous and disruptive state level mandates that are set to go into effect in six states later this fall. Yes, these are the states that decided to follow California's lead. I will say though, based on current EV sales, the bar is pretty high that's set to go into effect later this year. They're looking for 35% EV sales and this starting with a 2026 model year, the first round of states, California, Oregon, Washington, New York, Massachusetts and Vermont. Given that EV adoption in California, the bellwether for the United States was well under 30% in quarter four. I'm pretty sure these other states have close to a 0% chance of hitting these targets within the next 12 months. So if nothing changes, then yes, these automakers would likely be looking to buy some credits and the most likely seller would be Tesla.

目前，大约有30家来自美国各地的丰田和雷克萨斯的经销商正在前往国会山，试图避免他们所称的繁重且具有破坏性的州级法规。这些法规计划于今年秋天晚些时候在六个州开始生效。是的，这些州选择追随加利福尼亚州的脚步。我得说，就当前电动车的销量来看，设定的标准相当高，这些法规将在今年晚些时候生效。要求电动车销售达到35%，从2026款车型开始，第一批实施这些法规的州包括加利福尼亚州、俄勒冈州、华盛顿州、纽约州、马萨诸塞州和佛蒙特州。考虑到美国的风向标——加利福尼亚州在第四季度的电动车采用率远低于30%，我确信其他州在未来12个月内几乎没有可能达到这些目标。所以如果情况不改变，这些汽车制造商很可能会选择购买一些积分，而最有可能的卖家是特斯拉。

We got more of the same for Ford when it comes to its EV division. They're now delaying future models and not only that, but they're scaling back the plans for the production numbers. The second gen F-150 EV, which may or may not be called the lightning has now been delayed until 2027. And now they're expecting less than 100,000 next gen F-150 EV pickups, which is a third of the previously planned output of 300,000 per year. We also got Ford's Q4 earnings and its EV division Model E lost $5.1 billion for 2024. When it comes to those potential 25% tariffs, Farley just said it would have a huge impact on our industry with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and adverse effect on the US jobs. And when it comes to guidance for Ford's Model E division, EBIT earnings before interest in taxes for 2025, they're looking at another $5.5 billion to $5.5 billion loss for the year. If you take Ford's Q4 Model E loss of about $1.39 billion and divide that by 37,000 wholesale units for Q4, that means Ford lost about $37,500 per car in Q4. And running the same calculation for Q4 of 2023, that works out to a loss of about $46,000 per vehicle. So almost a $10,000 improvement in terms of loss per vehicle over the past year.

关于福特的电动车部门，我们又听到了更多的消息。他们不仅推迟了未来车型的上市，还缩减了生产计划。第二代F-150电动车（可能会叫Lightning）现在被推迟到2027年推出。预计新一代F-150电动车的年产量将不到10万辆，仅为之前计划的年产30万辆的三分之一。我们还了解到福特第四季度的财报，其电动车部门Model E在2024年亏损了51亿美元。 对于可能征收的25%关税，福特的法利表示，这将对行业产生巨大影响，将消耗数以十亿计的行业利润，并对美国的就业产生负面影响。在电动车部门Model E的2025年预期中，他们预计全年EBIT（息税前利润）将继续亏损在55亿至55亿美元之间。 如果将福特第四季度Model E的亏损约13.9亿美元除以第四季度批发的37,000辆车，每辆车平均亏损约37,500美元。进行2023年第四季度的同样计算，每辆车的亏损约为46,000美元。这意味着过去一年，单车亏损减少了大约10,000美元。

But the truth is, Ford's Model E division faces a very bleak 2025 and 2026 until they have those more affordable models ready. And by that time, I would just say Ford better be knocking those out of the park. Ford is still working on these extended range EVs that have a small combustion engine to recharge the battery on board. It's the end of an error this week as Sawyer highlighted the old Model Y has been removed from the Chinese configurator. And in an attempt to generate more Model 3 sales in China, they're offering about $1,100 in that insurance subsidy yet again for Model 3 buyers.

其实，事实是福特的 Model E 部门在2025年和2026年会面临非常艰难的状况，直到他们推出更为经济实惠的车型。而到那时，我只能说福特必须确保那些车型大获成功。福特目前仍在研发这些具备车载小型内燃发动机用于充电的长续航电动车。本周是一个时代的终结，因为索耶指出旧款 Model Y 已从中国配置器中移除。为了在中国增加 Model 3 的销量，他们再次为 Model 3 的买家提供了大约1100美元的保险补贴。

Nissan has decided to suspend talks with Honda when it comes to them working together to form that joint holding company. The companies were not able to agree on the valuation of each side. They did say that we plan to establish a direction and make an announcement around mid-February. According to Tesla's website, Mercedes should now have access to the Supercharger network, but right now it's only in the US and not yet in Canada. Mercedes owners still need to buy an adapter as they won't have the native NAC support until later in 2025. Plus these Mercedes vehicles will need a dealership installed a software update. It cannot be done remotely. Mercedes has sold between 35 and 45,000 EVs in the US across the past two years.

日产决定暂停与本田关于合作成立合资控股公司的谈判。双方未能就各自的估值达成一致。但他们表示计划在二月中旬明确方向，并做出公告。根据特斯拉网站的信息，奔驰现在应该能够使用超级充电网络，但目前仅限于美国，还未能在加拿大使用。奔驰车主仍需购买一个适配器，因为直到2025年之后他们的车辆才会有原生NAC支持。此外，这些奔驰车辆需要去经销商进行软件更新，这不能通过远程完成。在过去两年中，奔驰在美国售出了3.5万到4.5万辆电动汽车。

While Mars shared a screenshot showing Tesla sending out some new, free FSD trials. And from Nicolas on X, it sounds like ABB has reopened its doors to Tesla for use as company vehicles. ABB said our conclusion was that Tesla's employment conditions are sufficiently good, meaning they're comparable to or better than the relevant collective agreements. Therefore, Tesla has been conditionally approved, meaning we resume the possibility of ordering Tesla as a company car. ABB's fleet is probably only about 10,000 around the world, but they do have a goal of going all electric by 2030.

马斯发布了一张截图，显示特斯拉正在发送一些新的免费FSD（全自动驾驶）试用版。而根据尼古拉斯在X平台上的消息，看起来ABB又开始允许使用特斯拉作为公司车辆了。ABB表示，他们认为特斯拉的雇佣条件足够好，也就是说，与相关的集体协议相当或更好。因此，特斯拉获得了有条件的批准，我们将恢复将特斯拉作为公司车辆订购的可能性。ABB在全球大概只有约10,000辆车的车队，但他们确实有在2030年前实现全电动化的目标。

There are plenty of headlines today about Tesla's sales plunging in Germany, but they're only talking about one month of January. And remember, Tesla is in the midst of a massive changeover to the new Model Y, so sales are definitely going to be down throughout Quarter 1. And yes, there's likely some political things taking place here as well, but we'll see how things shake out throughout Quarter 1. Some banks just wrapped up their sale of about $5.5 billion in debt backed by X. They turned out to be greater demand for this debt than many were expecting, but we learned something interesting. One, XAI has been transferring hundreds of millions of dollars to X to help fund the business.

今天有很多关于特斯拉在德国销量骤降的头条新闻，但他们只是在谈论1月份。需要记住的是，特斯拉目前正在进行大规模的升级换代，推出新款Model Y，所以第一季度的销量肯定会下降。的确，这里面可能也有一些政治因素在起作用，但我们得看看第一季度的情况。 一些银行刚刚完成了约55亿美元由X支持的债务出售。这些债务的需求比许多人预期的要大，但我们了解到了一些有趣的事情：其一，XAI一直在转移数亿美元给X以资助这项业务。

X now holds a 10% stake in XAI, which is valued at about $5 billion. But listen to this, X told these investors that its EBITDA was $1.25 billion on annual revenue of $2.7 billion. In 2021, the last full year of Twitter before Elon took over, they did EBITDA of $682 million on about $5 billion in revenue. That means Elon has basically doubled the EBITDA number on half of the revenue. So it's true, X is still struggling to break even, but they've made significant progress from where things were just a few years ago. Tesla stock closed the day at $378.17 down 3.58% while the NASDAQ was up 0.19%. The volume was 23% below the average.

X现在持有XAI公司10%的股份，该公司的估值约为50亿美元。但听这个，X告诉这些投资者，他们的息税折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）是12.5亿美元，年收入为27亿美元。2021年，也就是Elon接管Twitter之前的最后一个完整年度，他们的EBITDA为6.82亿美元，收入约为50亿美元。这意味着，Elon基本上在收入减半的情况下将EBITDA翻了一番。不过，虽然X仍在努力达成收支平衡，但与几年前相比，他们已经取得了显著的进展。特斯拉股票当天以378.17美元收盘，下跌3.58%，而纳斯达克指数则上涨了0.19%。交易量比平均水平低了23%。

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