to electrify, it's your host Dylan Loomis. First up today, we have some more rumors on Optimus production, this time they're coming from Weibo in China. The word is supply chain research indicates Tesla has already placed orders with production increasing every month. It's estimated by the end of this year, the annualized production capacity can reach 30,000 units with much more expansion in 2026. But I know some people are interpreting this as 30,000 Optimus robots produced this year, but that's not the case. They're talking about the annualized rate, which is really just another way of saying 600 per week. And the real news here would be this, Tesla may soon update Optimus' progress with mass production officially starting in the second quarter.
Right now, the main factor restricting the development of humanoid robots is the high cost. Honestly, I would be quite surprised if we saw any Optimus production in quarter too. But another reason I was willing to share that rumor is because they actually have a lot more detail. This account gave a breakdown of Tesla's apparent supply chain for Optimus breaking it down by tier suppliers. For joint actuators, of course, Tesla is the largest player here producing in-house, but Sunua Holding and Tuopu Group are smaller with equal share. Zenu technology could be a new supplier as they're doing some sampling for quarter one this year. And Shafler and Bosch are currently collaborating on R&D, but no mass production plans yet. I'm not going to read through all of these names because I don't think they'll mean much to most people. And again, this is all just in the rumor category, but it's on the screen if you want to pause.
My point with all of this is typically the rumors that are made up or pulled out of left field do not come with this type of granular detail. What I'm about to say could be unrelated, but it's interesting at the least. So these reducers are a component in the actuators and this one company that's supposedly a supplier, harmonic drive systems have a look at their stock today. Up 29% today. One week from today, we'll have an earnings call and then we should have a much better idea if there's any world where Optimus may enter production as soon as quarter two. Timing of that aside, it's pretty clear the supply chain is being built out as one would expect. You would think that Nvidia, the company selling the suite of tools to help some of these companies work toward autonomy would be a bit more bullish on the outcome. But the head of Nvidia's auto division said, fully autonomous cars are not close and unlikely to go into full use on public roads until well into the next decade. He said, it's a next decade marvel, we're not close, it's super hard. While several cars offer limited autonomous capability in certain situations, the ability for cars to truly drive themselves requires another step forward in compute power and tech.
He said, we're working on large language models now like chat GPT with video and nobody was doing that in auto three years ago. I think you can make the argument that Tesla was but that's besides the point. He said, that kind of model needs a lot more compute power, a lot more memory bandwidth. You need more sensors like LiDAR and radar and you need redundant algos to ensure it's safe. He went on to talk about the problems with rule based or the systems that still use manual code and compared it to the next generation of cars that will learn behavior and be more natural. That's when you'll start to say, whoa, this car is driving so calmly and smoothly which as we know is exactly what Tesla has been doing with their end to end network. You don't have to take it for me anymore, take it from Ali Connie from NVIDIA who is telling us that these legacy automakers will not be solving true autonomy anytime soon. Here's some footage of the new Model Y and I'm not seeing a front bumper camera in these videos. I guess it could just be the angle and it's tucked under that lip so you can't see it. But here's another picture and if you zoom in, I'm still not seeing the front bumper camera. I'm sharing though because the good news is going to the Australian configurator. This is what's shown on the website and if you zoom in, you can still see the front bumper camera it just blends in pretty well. So in case you also saw these photos and videos, I think it's too soon to panic. I just think it blends in in these photos.
How about this? Edmunds who we know historically has not always been the friendliest publication toward Tesla has now named the new Model 3, the top rated electric car for 2025. They said from range to price to performance, there are few areas where the Model 3 does not have a leg up on the competition. Across the lineup, the Model 3 delivers at every price point and has something for anyone looking at any electric sedan. They said it was the most complete and well-built car they've ever seen from Tesla and I have a feeling a year from now we'll be hearing similar things about the new Model Y. Elon and I have hugged it out this morning. You hugged it out? Yeah, he came to one of our conferences, United, a nice long chat. We settled some of our differences and the guy, you gotta look at Elon, I mean SpaceX, I mean Tesla, you know, Neural Link, I just, I mean, the guy is our, and his, Einstein and so I like to be helpful to him and his company as much as we can. Elon saw it and said nice of him to say, but it's like, all right Jamie, if you wanna be helpful to Tesla and Elon's companies, maybe you can start by talking to Ryan Brinkman, who's your analyst for Tesla who has a price target of $135. Oh yeah, and a sell rating on the stock to boot. I say that somewhat ingest, but the truth is, Elon being on good terms with Jamie Diamond, the CEO of one of the biggest banks in the world is definitely not a bad thing. Think about things like auto loan rates, getting different lines of credit, underwriting bond offerings, helping Tesla with M&A activity in the future if Tesla was to acquire other companies. And obviously Jamie has an A-list of network contacts, which doesn't hurt either.
怎么样?我们都知道,Edmunds 一直以来对特斯拉的态度并不总是很友好,但现在他们却将新款 Model 3 评为 2025 年最佳电动车。他们表示,无论是续航、价格还是性能,Model 3 在各个方面几乎都优于竞争对手。整个车型系列的价格覆盖面广,能够满足任何想购买电动轿车的人的需求。Edmunds 还称这是他们见过的特斯拉最完整、制造最精良的汽车。我感觉一年后我们会听到关于新款 Model Y 的类似评论。今天早上埃隆和我已经和解拥抱了。你们真的和解了吗?是的,他参加了我们联合举办的一个会议,我们好好聊了一次,解决了一些分歧。你看看埃隆,SpaceX,特斯拉,Neural Link,他就像我们的爱因斯坦,所以我希望能尽可能多地帮助他和他的公司。埃隆看到这句话时说,这很好,不过他说:“好吧,Jamie,如果你想帮助特斯拉和埃隆的公司,也许可以从和Ryan Brinkman 谈谈起。他是你们分析师,给特斯拉的目标价定了135美元,而且还给了卖出评级。”虽然我有点开玩笑,但事实上,埃隆和Jamie Dimon,说一流银行CEO,关系很好肯定没坏处。想想汽车贷款利率,获取不同的信贷额度,承销债券发行,支持特斯拉未来的并购活动,以及 Jamie 的人脉资源,这些都将对特斯拉有帮助。
Part one was so good, I couldn't help but share part two of the 86 year old mother trying out FSD for the second time. This is good test, because we got a lot of traffic. Look it, will you look at this polite car? Steve, this car is polite. Yes. Wow, you are good boy. This is gonna take 10 years off my life. Is that the way I say it or should I say it ads? I think it's gonna add 10 years. Because this is my biggest fear. I don't know how to get around. I don't know where anything is. You are such a good boy, Mr. Starfish. Star ship. Ship. This is incredible, Steve. I am telling you, nothing to it in the car fits me like a glove. I feel so comfortable. Seems to me just exactly what I hoped for. Steve, my friend, if you see this, I do think it's time to change the name of your Tesla to Starfish.
About two years ago, I weighed 170 pounds at 5'11 after a year's long parasite battle, COVID and a bad back injury. Over the past two years, 95% of my workouts have been at home with minimal equipment. The heaviest dumbbell was 10 pounds and this kettlebell is 15. One constant in my road back to myself has been AG1, the sponsor of this video. And I know you guys hear messaging like this everywhere nowadays, but let my message be to get serious about your wellness. Get some labs done, check your own levels. All I'll say is I've had seasons with AG1 and I've had some without it and call it whatever you want, but I do prefer my seasons with it. And there's a reason AG1 has become so popular and no, it's not just good marketing because if that were the case and it didn't actually help people, the jig would have been up by now. I do find it interesting when people attack it because really all it is is 75 high quality nutrients sourced well from Whole Foods with a great research team. Personally, I'm good paying a slight premium knowing that I'm putting high quality fuel into my body. Before AG1, I did have pretty volatile energy swings, drinking coffee and with AG1, I really don't drink coffee outside of a rare occasion. And from that, I do feel far more stable when it comes to my energy levels throughout the day. But look, the truth is everybody is different and we all need to find what works for us individually. So as always, if you'd like to try AG1 for yourself for a few months and support the channel and the process, you can head to drinkag1.com slash electrified, linked below, or you can use the QR code on the screen.
Dan Ives bumped up his Tesla stock price target from 5.15 to 5.50. He added, we do not include Optimus yet in our valuation, the bull case is 650. As we've been saying, Optimus production is set to begin in the next 12 months and most of Wall Street is attributing $0 for Optimus valuation. At some point, that has to change. For Dan's rationale, he did not share anything new we haven't already talked about. He's still expecting Tesla could hit a $2 trillion market cap this year. He actually had some conversations with management over the past few weeks he said. So I think that, you know, likely that's where he's drawing his bullishness from. For me, a price target based on conversations with management has a lot more weight than just one that's really trailing the stock price without any new insight, at least on their end.
Dan Ives 将他的特斯拉股票目标价从5.15上调至5.50。他补充说,我们的估值中尚未计入Optimus,乐观情况下,目标价为650。正如我们一直所说,Optimus的生产将在未来12个月内开始,大多数华尔街人士对Optimus的估值为零。但这种情况迟早会改变。对于Dan的理由,他并没有提出任何新观点,而是继续预计特斯拉今年市值可能达到2万亿美元。他还提到,过去几周他与管理层进行了一些对话。我认为,他的乐观态度可能就是从这些对话中得来的。对我来说,一个基于与管理层对话得出的价格目标比那些没有新见解、仅仅是跟随股票价格走势的目标更有分量。
We have Honda and really a large portion of the auto industry now spending hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions, to retrain employees on software defined vehicles. Honda alone is spending $100 million on these efforts to give its workers the basic foundations of the new technologies. Their VP of human capital said the biggest challenge for us is to find talent in the software defined vehicle related field. Japan is limited in its pool of software related engineers. This investment will happen over the next five years and most of the training will happen online. The thing is, I think most of us would agree, going to get a grad out of college or high school, somebody that's built to code and has been raised effectively in that environment is very different than trying to teach an old dog new tricks, if you will, not that you can't, it's just much more difficult.
Not only that, but you have to wonder, are these people even interested in this new technology or is it going to be something they're dreading doing? Honda and other Japanese automakers are struggling to attract software talent in a global market where high tech companies in Silicon Valley and other hotspots draw more attention and usually pay more. German supplier Bosch is planning to spend $2 billion over 10 years to re-educate, rescale of 400,000 employees. BMW and PUGO are also doing similar things and Honda's VP said change is needed to help keep Honda competitive. If you've been around the channel, you'll remember two or three years ago, we were saying that the competition does not have software talent and it's going to be a problem, fast forward almost three years and that's still the case.
Think about it, if you worked at a company for 10, 20, maybe 30 years, doing things a certain way and then in your twilight years, you're told you have to learn this entirely new system that's likely to be quite foreign to you, it probably won't go over super well. And if these companies can't figure it out and they continue to use third party software like Android OS or others, you're always going to be paying that margin and you're always going to be limited in what you can do on your own. There's a new men's cybercab tea on the Tesla shop for $40. When it comes to the Tesla stock TikTok overhang, Trump did say I would be open to it if Elon wanted to buy it, it being TikTok. He said, I've met with owners of TikTok, the big owners, so what I'm thinking about saying to somebody is buy it and give half to the US.
There may have been something lost in translation there because only the US division was open for sale anyway. Honestly to me, this seems like less than a 2% outcome but why this matters for Tesla, it would mean Elon would likely need to sell Tesla shares to buy TikTok. But as we know, now a significant portion of his net worth is in SpaceX, so he could always do something taking a loan against those shares as well. The new CEO of Polestar as of October has some words about Elon and his involvement in politics. Michael Oshler said, we get a lot of people writing that they don't like all of this. It's important to listen closely to what they say and I can tell you, a lot of people have very, very negative sentiment. In response, Oshler has told his salespeople to target disgruntled Tesla owners for potential business.
The truth is Polestar needs to do whatever it can to turn things around at their company. And on Elon getting involved in foreign politics, Oshler said, you want to know what I think about it? I think it's totally unacceptable, totally unacceptable. You just don't do that. This is pure arrogance and these things will not work. We've heard this song and dance before. The truth is if you don't share Elon's political views, then of course you're going to be upset with how outspoken he's been as of late. But the main reason I'm sharing is hopefully in a couple months after the inauguration is in the rear view mirror and things settle down a bit, then this narrative won't be as common as it is right now.
Just be aware that same anti-Elon chatter when it comes to politics that we heard when he started this whole foray more publicly is coming back around right now. Despite all of that, nothing has changed. If Tesla can deliver a more affordable vehicle as long as the Model Y refresh goes well, there's no reason to think that it won't. And if unsupervised FSD launches this year, then well, all of this political chatter will take its rightful place, which of course is just an afterthought. Looking at this survey from UGOV of 26,000 Americans in 2024, just under 60% are most likely to buy a gas vehicle, whereas about 14% are most likely to buy an EV. Honestly though, dating back the past 12 months that number really has stayed flat.
So despite everything that's happened over the past year, honestly, the needle isn't really moving too much at least for this sample size. We learned today that loans for US critical minerals projects that were not finalized before Biden left office could be vulnerable. That list includes 24 projects seeking a total of $45 billion. There's no guarantee that these get reversed, but it'll be something to watch. According to JD Power, for mass market brands, Ford was ranked with the best website. And when it comes to premium brands, Tesla has the best website. Alpha Romeo was the worst for premium brands and Mitsubishi was the worst for mass market brands. This data based on responses from 11,400 people. The say website for Tesla investor questions is now live. I'll have the link below. The top question is if unsupervised FSD is still launching this year. And the second, are there any discussions about Tesla licensing FSD? When it comes to OpenAI's new Stargate project that could be up to $500 billion, do me a favor, let me know in the comments, yes or no. If this type of news is something you'd be interested in, I know it's kind of outside the scope of EVs, sustainable energy and Tesla, but AI of course is squarely part of it.
Either way though, I saw plenty of people asking why wasn't Elon involved in this project, especially because Larry Ellison from Oracle is a big part of it. For me, it's pretty obvious. I don't see any world where Elon would be working alongside a Sam Altman in OpenAI after all of their history. It seems like a no-brainer for Elon to sit this one out, even if he was invited to be part of the project. Elon replied saying, they don't have the money, saying SoftBank only has less than 10 billion secured, to which Sam Altman said, I genuinely respect your accomplishments and think you're the most inspiring entrepreneur of our time. Sam also said, do you want to come visit the first site already underway? This is great for the country. I realized what is great for the country isn't always what's optimal for your companies, but in your new role, I hope you'll mostly put America first. So yeah, the drama is heating up and I did want to make it clear that news we shared recently about the federal land being made available for AI data centers is separate from this Stargate project. Right now, Stargate is already building on private land, so maybe they benefit down the line, but not yet two separate things.
It's still a developing story. We'll see if they can actually come up with the funding, even though they don't need a hundred billion dollars cash right out of the gate. But there's one clip from Larry Ellison that I think is worth sharing from the end of last year. Everyone would see it. Your body cams will be transmitting that. The police will be on their best behavior because we're constantly recording, watching and recording everything that's going on. Citizens will be on their best behavior because we're constantly recording and reporting everything that's going on. Ellison's vision is for AI to analyze data from this network of cameras in real time in an attempt to prevent crime while also tracking and influencing public behavior for a safer society. We're gonna have supervision. And there was every police officer is gonna be supervised at all times. So yeah, a vision for constant surveillance from Ellison and then you layer in potential mRNA vaccines for cancer and as people like to say, we do live in quite an interesting timeline. But again, please let me know yes or no on more AI related news. This is pretty cool as Joe Tett Meyer shared, the cyber tunnel is officially operational and cyber truck production has resumed. At least for now there are still drivers in those trucks. This is the first accident of the new Model 3 I've seen a got sandwiched between two trucks and the word is the driver is fine. Tesla stock closed the day at $415.11 down 2.11% while the NASDAQ was up 1.28%. Rivian, Lucid and Polestar were all down over 4% on the day. For Tesla, it was a low volume day trading about 32% below the average. Don't forget for those interested, check out AG1 linked below. Thank you in advance if you do. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters. Thanks for watching.