Live: Tesla Q4 Earnings Call 2024 (TSLA)
发布时间 2025-01-30 00:41:53 来源
Congratulations here, Tesla. And I am joined today by Elon Musk and Vevov to Nesha and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central time in the update deck. We published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events for results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.
祝贺特斯拉。我今天与埃隆·马斯克、Vevov to Nesha以及其他几位高管一同参加。这是我们关于第四季度业绩的结果公告，发布时间大约在中部时间下午3点，并已更新在与此次网络会议相同的链接上。在此次会议中，我们将讨论我们的业务展望，并做出前瞻性声明。这些评论基于我们对截至今天的预测和期望。由于存在多种风险和不确定性，实际事件或结果可能会有很大不同，包括在我们最近向SEC提交的文件中提到的那些。
During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon. Thank you. So in summary, in Q4, we set a record and delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million a year. So congratulations to the Tesla team on excellent work, achieving record production and deliveries. Model Y was the best selling vehicle of any kind for 2024. That's worth noting that not just the best electric vehicle, the best vehicle of any kind on Earth. Number one, which model Y. We're staying focused on maximizing volumes and obviously doubling down for.
在今天电话会议的问答环节中，请每位参与者限制提问一个问题，并可以跟进一个相关问题。若想提问，请使用“举手”按钮加入提问队列。在进入问答环节之前，Elon会发表一些开场讲话。Elon，谢谢你。总结来说，在第四季度，我们创下了纪录，年化交付车辆数量接近200万辆。祝贺特斯拉团队取得出色的成绩，实现了生产和交付的双重新高。值得注意的是，Model Y在2024年成为全球最畅销的车辆，不仅是在电动车领域，而是所有类型的车辆中位列第一。我们将继续专注于最大化产量，并且显然会加倍努力。
I don't know what. It's really doesn't I was going to say doubling down on autonomy, but really it's like autonomy is like 10 Xing. Rightly doubling is not even enough. We made many critical investments in 2024 in manufacturing and robotics that will. Bear immense fruit in the future and mens like it's in fact to such a scale that it is difficult to comprehend. And I've said this before and I'll stand by it. I see a path, but I'm not saying it's an easy path, but I see a path.
我不知道该怎么说。这真的不是我想表达的那种加倍自主性，而更像是自主性在以十倍的速度增长。实际上，加倍都不够。我们在2024年对制造业和机器人技术进行了许多关键的投资，这些投资将来会带来巨大的成果，大到难以想象。我之前也这么说过，我依然坚信这一点。我看到了一条路径，但并不是说这是一条轻松的路，不过我确实看到了这个方向。
It tells the being the most valuable company in the world, more by far, not even close, like, but. Maybe several times more than. I mean, there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. There's a path to that. I mean, I think it's like. An incredibly just like a difficult path, but it is an achievable path. So. And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. So. Our focus is actually building towards that. And then that's what we're laying the ground. We lay the groundwork for that in 2024 will continue to lay the groundwork for that in 2025. If more than lay the groundwork actually, so you'll be building the structure be.
这段文字表达了这样的观点：特斯拉有可能成为全球最有价值的公司，远超其他公司，甚至可能相当于后面五家顶尖公司的总和。这虽然是一条非常艰难的道路，但也是可以实现的。而这主要归功于自动驾驶汽车和自动化人形机器人的发展。因此，我们目前的重点是为此目标打下基础，并在2024年为此奠定基础，2025年将不仅仅是打基础，而是开始打造这个结构。
We're building the manufacturing lines. And. Let go. I'd like setting up for what I think will be an epic. 2026 and a ridiculous 27 and 28 ridiculously good. That is my prediction. And. You know, we, as you had very few, very few people understand the value of fossil driving. And our ability to monetize the fleet. You know, I've, I've, some of these things I've said for quite a long time and I know people said, really, you know, you know, it was the boy who cried wolf like several times, but I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf. This time. And you can drive it. In fact, it can drive you. It's a self driving wolf. You know, for a lot of people, they're like their experience of Tesla autonomy is like, if it's even a year old, if it's even two years old, that it's like me, it's like me, someone when they're like a toddler and thinking that they're going to be a toddler forever.
我们正在建设生产线。我要为我认为将是史诗般的2026年，以及不可思议的2027和2028年做好准备。我的预言是这些年份会好得令人难以置信。你知道的，几乎没有人真正理解无人驾驶的价值以及我们如何能够从车队中盈利。虽然我已经说这些事情很长时间了，很多人可能会觉得我像是那个喊“狼来了”的孩子，但这次我真心告诉你，狼真的来了。而且这是一只可以自驾的狼。很多人对特斯拉自动驾驶的体验，可能是基于一两年前的技术，就像看一个小孩子并以为他永远都是小孩一样。
And obviously not going to create toddler forever. They grow up. But if their last experience was like, oh, FSD was a toddler. It's like, well, it's growing up now. Have you seen it? It's like walks and talks. And that's really what we've got. And it's difficult to for people to understand this because human intuition is linear, as opposed to what we're seeing is exponential progress. So that's why my number one recommendation for anyone who doubts is simply try it. Have you tried it? When's the last time you tried it? And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who are skeptical.
显然，不可能永远停留在初学阶段。它会成长。但如果他们最后的体验是，比如，“全自动驾驶（FSD）好像是初学者。”那么，现在它已经成长了。你见过吗？它就像会走路会说话的孩子。这就是我们现在的情况。人们难以理解这一点，因为人类的直觉是线性的，而我们看到的是指数级的进步。所以，我对任何有怀疑的人最重要的建议就是——亲自去试试看。你试过吗？你上次尝试是什么时候？唯一对它持怀疑态度的人是那些还没亲自体验过的人。
All those who have not tried it. So, you know, a car goes to a passenger car typically has only about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168. A very small percentage. Once that car is autonomous, my rough estimate is that it is used for at least a third of the hours of the week to call it 50, maybe 35 hours of the week. And it can be useful both. So, you know, if you're looking at a car, you can deliver packages in the middle of the night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be. Whatever people need at all hours of the day or night. That same asset, the thing that that is these things that already exist.
所有还没有尝试过的人。你知道，一辆乘用车通常每周只有大约10个小时在使用，满打满算一周有168小时。这是一个非常小的比例。一旦汽车实现自动驾驶，我粗略估算，它每周至少能被使用三分之一的时间，大约35到50个小时。而且这辆车可以在任何时间段里都有用处。比如，你可以在半夜用车来送快递，或给餐馆补充物资，或是满足全天候各种需求。而这同一个资产，这些东西，其实已经存在。
With no incremental cost change, just a software update. Now have five times or more the utility that they currently have. I am. I think this will be the largest. Asset value increase. In human history, maybe there's something bigger, but I just don't know what it is. And so people who look in the review mirror. I'm looking for past precedent, except I don't think there is one. So. But you know, that there. But the reality of autonomy is upon us. And I repeat my advice. Try dragging the car. Or let it drive you. So now it works very well in the US.
在没有额外成本变化的情况下，只是进行了一次软件更新。他们现在拥有的效用是之前的五倍或更多。我认为这将是人类历史上最大的资产价值增长。也许有比这更大的事情，但我不知道是什么。因此，那些回头看过去寻找先例的人，可能找不到类似情况。不过，你知道，自动驾驶的现实已经到来。我重申我的建议，试着让汽车自己行驶或者让它载你。在美国，现在这个功能运作得非常好。
But of course it will over time work just as well everywhere else. Yeah. So. We're working hard to grow our annual volumes. I've been straight this year. Our current constraint is battery packs this year, but we're working on addressing. That's constrained. And I think we will make progress in addressing that constraint. And then. Things are really going to go ballistic next year. And really ballistic in 27 and 28. So. Yeah.
当然，随着时间的推移，这种情况在其他地方也会同样有效。是的，所以我们正在努力提高我们的年度产量。今年我一直在努力。我们目前的限制是电池组，但我们正在努力解决这个问题。我认为我们会在解决这个限制方面取得进展。明年事情将会真正迅猛发展，27年和28年会更加强劲。所以，是的。
So. A bit more on on personal driving. Our Q4 vehicle safety report shows continued year over year improvements in safety for vehicles. So the safety numbers. If somebody has. Also driving to non or not. The safety differences are gigantic. So. And people have seen the. The events improvement with version 13. And with incremental versions and version 13. And then 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that. That is very significant. We launched the cortex training cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant contributor to FSD advancement. And we continue to invest in training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters.
那么，关于个人驾驶方面的一些更多信息。我们的第四季度车辆安全报告显示，车辆安全性逐年持续改善。安全数据方面，如果有人驾驶和不驾驶（自动驾驶），安全差异非常巨大。所以，人们已经看到第13版以及之后的增量版本的改善，第14版又将是一个非常重要的进步。我们在奥斯汀的超级工厂启动了Cortex训练集群，这对全自动驾驶技术的进步做出了重要贡献。我们还在继续投资位于德州总部的培训基础设施。
So the training needs for. Optimists are optimists humanoid robot. I'll probably at least ultimately 10 eggs. What was needed for the car. At least to get to the full range of. Of useful roles. You can say like, if you have how many different roles, although for a humanoid robot versus a car. Here I go about this. Has probably. Well, 1000. Times more uses and more complex things than. In a car that doesn't mean the training scales by 1000, but. It's probably. You know, 10 eggs. Now you can do this progressively.
翻译： 所以，培训需求是这样的。乐观主义者会对人形机器人感到乐观。我可能至少会最终需要10倍的培训。对于汽车来说，需要什么样的培训呢？至少需要涵盖所有有用的作用范围。你可以这样说，如果你有多少种不同的角色，尽管人形机器人与汽车相比，这方面可能有。嗯，1000倍的更多用途和更复杂的功能。但这并不意味着培训需求增加1000倍，不过，可能会增加10倍。现在，你可以逐步进行这个过程。
So doesn't mean like a Tesla going to spend like $500 billion in training compute. Because we would obviously train the. Optimists to do enough tasks. To match the output of bottomless robots. But and obviously the cost of training is dropping dramatically with time. So. But it is, it is. Like it is one of those things where I think long term optimists will be. Optimists has the potential to be north of 10 trillion dollars in revenue. Like it's really bananas. So that you can obviously afford a lot of training compute in that situation. In fact, even $500 billion training in that situation would be quite a good deal. Yeah. If you're just going to be incredibly. Different from the past, that's for sure. We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history. So. Yeah.
这并不意味着像特斯拉这样的公司会花费大约5000亿美元在训练计算上。因为我们显然会训练机器人（Optimists）去完成足够的任务，以匹配无数机器人（bottomless robots）的输出。而且，随着时间的推移，训练的成本正在急剧下降。所以，从长远来看，我认为Optimists有潜力带来超过10万亿美元的收入，这真的很惊人。这样一来，在这样的情况下，显然可以负担得起大量的训练计算。实际上，即便是花费5000亿美元在训练上，在那种情况下也是非常划算的。如果你想说以后会和过去截然不同，那是肯定的。我们正处在人类历史上一个令人难以置信的转折点。是的。
So. The proof is in the pudding. So we're going to be launching. Unsupervised. Full self driving. As a paid service in Austin in June. So. You know, talk with the team, we feel. Confident in being able to do. An initial launch of. Unsupervised. No one in the car. Full self driving in Austin in June. We already have. It tells us operating autonomously. Unsupervised for self driving at our factory in Fremont. And we'll soon be a third during that at our factory in Texas. So thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them.
好的。事实胜于雄辩。所以我们计划在6月份于奥斯汀推出无人监督的全自动驾驶付费服务。经过与团队讨论，我们对首次推出这种无人车内的全自动驾驶服务很有信心。目前，我们已经在弗里蒙特的工厂实现了自动驾驶技术的自主运行，即无人监督的全自动驾驶。而且很快也将在德克萨斯的工厂实现。因此，每天都有成千上万辆车在没有人驾驶的情况下行驶。
At our Fremont factory. In California, they will soon be doing that. In Austin and then elsewhere in the world. The rest of our factories, which is pretty cool. And the cars aren't just. Driving to exactly the same spot because obviously at all. When it's light at the same spot. The cars are actually programmed with with with what lane. They need to park into to be picked up for delivery. So they drive from the factory end of line. To their space to their. Destination parking spot. And then put to be picked up for. Delivery to customers. And then during this reliably every day. Thousands of times a day. It's pretty cool. Like I said, these are the Tesla will be in the wild. Was no one in them.
在我们位于加州弗里蒙特的工厂，他们很快就会开始这样做。在奥斯汀，还有全球其他地方。我们其余的工厂也是如此，真的很酷。汽车并不是简单地开到同一个地方，因为很明显不可能总在同一个地方停下。实际上，汽车被编程来确定它们需要停在哪条车道，以便被提取送达。它们从工厂的生产线末端开到它们的停车位置，然后等待被提取以送达给客户。这样每天都可靠地执行，成千上万次，真的很酷。就像我说的，这些特斯拉车将会在实际环境中行驶，而车内没有人。
In June in Austin. So the one I'm saying is this is not some far off. Mythical situation. It's literally. You know. Five six months away. Five months away. To everything. And while we're stepping into putting out two in the water gently at first. Just to make sure everything's cool. Our solution are at sort of a jet. Our solution is a generalized a solution. And so we're just going to be. Not does not require high precision maps of a locality. So we just want to be cautious. It's not that it doesn't work beyond. In fact, it does. We just want to be put a toe in the water. Make sure everything is okay. Then put a few more toes in the water. Then put it foot in the water. With safety of the general public as and those in the car.
在六月的奥斯汀。我想说的是，这不是遥不可及的神话情景。这实际上只剩下五六个月的时间。而在此期间，我们将开始慢慢推进，先小心翼翼地试探，确保一切正常。我们的解决方案是一个通用方案，不需要精准的本地地图。因此，我们只是想要谨慎些。并不是说它不能在其他地方运行，事实上是可以的。我们只是想先试探一下，确保一切正常，然后再逐步深入。我们始终将公众安全以及车内人员的安全放在首位。
With regard to optimists. Obviously I'm making these revenue predictions predictions that sound absolutely insane. I realized that. But. But they are. I think they will prove to be accurate. Yeah. Yeah. Now with optimists. There's a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing because. It's not like a train arriving at the station for us. We are designing the train. And the station and. In real time, well also bullying the tracks. And so they're like, why did it?
关于乐观主义者。显然，我在做这些收入预测时，它们听起来绝对疯狂。我意识到了这一点。但是。我认为这些预测会被证明是准确的。是的。是的。对乐观主义者而言，在确切的时间上会有很大的不确定性，因为这不像火车到站那么简单。我们正在设计火车和车站，并且在实时铺设轨道。所以他们会问，为什么这样做？
Why didn't the training? Right. Exactly at 12.05. And like we're literally designing the train and the track in the station in real time while you're seeing like, how can we predict this thing with absolute precision. It's impossible. You know, the normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 optimists will have us to be both this year. Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not. But I would, will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes.
为什么训练没有按时进行呢？对，确切地说是在12点05分。实际上，我们好像是在实时设计火车、轨道和车站，而你希望我们能够绝对精确地预测一切。这是不可能的。通常的内部计划要求今年我们大约需要有10,000个乐观者。我们能在今年12月底前正好制造出10,000个吗？可能不能。但我们能成功制造出几千个吗？是的。
I think we will. Will there's several thousand optimists will be doing useful things by the end of year? Yes, I'm confident they will be able to do useful things. That those. The optimists in use at the Tesla factories production design one will inform. How would we change for production science here, which we expect to launch next year. And our goal is to ramp prop optimist production faster than maybe anything's ever been ramped. Meaning like aspirationally, an order of magnitude ramp per year. Now, if we aspire to order magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year.
我认为我们会做到的。在今年年底前，会有几千名乐观主义者在做有用的事情吗？是的，我相信他们能够做到那些有用的事情。这些乐观主义者将参与特斯拉工厂的生产设计，将为我们的生产科学提供信息。我们计划在明年启动这个项目。我们的目标是让Optimus的生产速度比以往任何产品都快。理想情况下，每年要提高一个数量级。如果我们努力实现每年提高一个数量级，可能最终只能提高半个数量级。
But that's the kind of growth we're talking about. It doesn't take very many years before. You know, we're making a hundred million of these things a year. If you go up by. Let's say a factor, you know, by five X per year. It's insane. Not 50%. Five hundred percent. So. Yeah. Big growth numbers.
但这就是我们讨论的增长类型。用不了几年时间，你知道的，我们每年就会生产一亿个这些东西。如果每年增长，比如说五倍，这太疯狂了。不是50%，而是500%。所以，是的，这个增长数字非常大。
Yeah, but we do need to be it. This is an entirely new supply chain. It is entirely new technology. There's nothing off the cell. It's up to us. We tried desperately with optimists to use any existing motors, you know, any actuators, sensors. Nothing, nothing worked for a human or robot at any price. We had to design everything from physics, post principles to work for human or robot. And with the most sophisticated hand that has ever been made before by far.
是的，但我们确实需要做到这一点。这是一个全新供应链。这是全新技术。市面上没有任何现成的东西。一切都靠我们自己。我们非常努力地尝试用乐观的态度去使用现有的电机、执行器和传感器。无论价格高低，没有一个能为人类或机器人正常工作。我们不得不从物理学原理开始，一切都重新设计，以适用于人类或机器人。此外，我们还制造了迄今为止最复杂的手部部件。
And optimist will be also like play the piano. And be able to thread a needle. I mean, this is the level of precision. No one has. Been able to achieve. And so it's a really something special. So. yeah. So, and my correction long term is the optimist will be overwhelmingly the value of the company. Regarding energy back to us. It was the lawn. Can you come back over a minute?
乐观的人也会喜欢弹钢琴，并且能够穿针引线。我的意思是，这是一种精确的程度，很少有人能达到。因此，这是非常特别的。所以，是的，我对长期的预期是，乐观者将极大地影响公司的价值。关于能量回归到我们，我们需要等一下。
Okay. Back to it. Energy storage is a big deal. And will become. It's already so important will become incredibly important in the future. And it is something that enables far greater energy output. To the grid, then is currently possible. Because the grid. The grid is are. The vast majority of the grid has no energy storage capability. So they have to design the power plants to. You know, for very high peaks. And assuming that there's no energy storage. Once you have grid grid energy storage and home based energy storage. The actual total energy output per year of the grid is dramatically greater than people think.
好的，继续说。能量储存是一个重要的事情，并将在未来变得极其重要。它能够显著提高电网的能量输出，而这一点目前是难以实现的。因为电网的大部分没有能量储存能力，因此电站需要设计成能够应对非常高的用电高峰，并假设没有能量储存。一旦电网有了能量储存功能，并且家庭也有能量储存，电网每年的实际总能量输出会比人们想象的多得多。
It's at least double. This will drive the demand of station race. Battery packs and especially the good scale ones to insane basically as much demand as we could possibly make. So. We have. Our second factory, which is in Shanghai, that's starting operation and we're building a third factory. So we're trying to ramp output of. The stationary battery storage as quickly as possible. Now that there is a challenge here where we have to be careful to.
这至少是翻了一番。这将推动对储能站的需求。电池组，特别是大规模的电池组，将会出现极大的需求，几乎是我们能够生产的最大需求量。所以，我们有第二个工厂，位于上海，已经开始运营，我们正在建设第三个工厂。因此，我们正努力尽快提高固定式电池储能的产量。然而，这里面有一个挑战，我们必须小心应对。
That we're not rather take robbing for one pocket to take to another pocket because. For a given giga watt hours per year of the cell. We have to go into stationary applications or mobile applications. Again, go both into both. So we have to make that trade off. yeah. But overall the demand for total gigawatt hours of batteries, whether mobile or stationary. That will grow. To in a very, very big way of a time. So.
我们不应该只是从一个口袋拿走，再放进另一个口袋。对于每年每吉瓦时的电池使用，我们需要将其用于固定设备或移动设备，或者两者兼顾。这需要做出权衡。然而，总体而言，无论是用于移动设备还是固定设备的电池需求都会大幅度增长。
In conclusion. 2025 really is a pivotal for Tesla. And I, and we're going to look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised full self driving. True real world AI that actually works. Yeah, I think they may regard it as the biggest year in Tesla history. Maybe even bigger than office car. The roadster or the model. So the model three will model one. I think it probably will be if you're 25 is maybe the most important year in Tesla's history. There is no company in the world that is as good at real world AI is Tesla. I don't even know if he's in second place. Like you say like, who's in the second place for real world AI? I would need a very big telescope to see them. That's how far behind they are. All right. Thank you very much, Elon. And above has some of my remarks as well. Yeah, I'll talk about things on earth. As Elon mentioned in Q four, we set records and vehicles, deliveries and energy storage deployments in an uncertain micro environment.
总之，2025年对特斯拉来说确实是一个关键年份。到时候回顾2025年的时候，我们将会看到完全自主驾驶技术的推出，这是真正有效的现实世界人工智能。我认为，大家可能会把2025年视为特斯拉历史上最重要的一年，甚至比为数不多的几款车辆如Roadster或者模型车的推出还重要。因此Model 3和Model 1在2025年可能会被认为是特斯拉历史上最重要的年份。没有任何公司在现实世界的AI方面能比得上特斯拉。甚至那些能够勉强排在第二位的公司，我觉得都得用望远镜才能看得到，因为他们实在是落后太多了。好的，非常感谢Elon，上述也是我个人的一些看法。对于现实世界的事物来说，正如Elon在第四季度提到的，我们在不确定的微观环境中创下了车辆交付和能源存储部署的记录。
We were able to grow auto and energy story volumes, but sequentially and on a year or near basis. For this, I would like to time the effects of everyone at Tesla to make this a reality and our customers will help us achieve this. Coming into the fourth quarter, our focus was to reduce inventory levels in the automotive business. And we accomplished that by ending the quarter with the lowest finished, good inventory in the last two years. This was a result of offering not only attractive financing options, but also other discounts and programs, which impacted the space. While we saw volume growth in almost all regions that we are creating, we hit a new record of for deliveries in the greater China market. This is an encouraging trend since we grew volume in a highly competitive BV market. On the automotive margin front, we saw a quarter or quarter decline, primarily due to lower ASPs and due to the recognition of FSD related revenue in Q three from creature releases.
我们成功地在年度或季度的基础上，增加了汽车和能源方面的故事量。为了达成这一目标，我想感谢特斯拉每一位员工的努力，以及我们的客户对我们的支持。进入第四季度，我们的重点是减少汽车业务的库存水平。我们实现了这一目标，并在本季度结束时达到了过去两年来最低的成品库存。这得益于我们不仅提供了有吸引力的融资选项，还推出了其他折扣和项目，这些措施影响了市场。虽然我们在几乎所有区域的销量都有所增长，但我们在中国市场的交付量创下了新纪录。这是一个令人鼓舞的趋势，因为在竞争激烈的电动车市场中，我们仍实现了销量增长。在汽车利润率方面，由于平均售价降低和第三季度因为新功能发布而确认了与FSD相关的收入，我们的季度利润率出现了下降。
Our journey on cost reduction continues and we were able to get our overall cost per car down below $35,000 to primarily by material costs. This was despite increased depreciation and other costs as we prepare for the transition to the new model, why for which we recently started taking orders in all markets. All of factories will start producing the new model, why next month, while we feel confident in our teams abilities to ramp production quickly. Note that it is an unprecedented change and we're not aware of anybody else taking the best selling car on the planet and updating all factories at the same time. This change over will result in several weeks of lost production in the quarter. As a result, margins will be impacted due to ID capacity and other lamplated costs as is common in any launch, but will be overcome as production is that.
我们的成本削减之旅仍在继续，我们已经能够将每辆车的总成本降低到3.5万美元以下，主要通过材料成本的降低实现。尽管因为我们准备过渡到新车型而导致折旧和其他成本增加，我们已经在所有市场开始接受新车型的订单。我们所有的工厂将在下个月开始生产新车型，我们对团队快速提高产量的能力充满信心。请注意，这次变化是前所未有的，我们不知道还有谁可以同时更新全球销量最高的车型和所有工厂。这次变更将导致本季度生产中断几周。因此，利润率将受到ID容量和其他上线成本的影响，这是任何新车发布中常见的情况，但可通过批量生产来克服。
We will be introducing several new products throughout 2025. We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our line up from the end. On a dollar for dollar basis, we believe we have the most compelling lineup today compared to the industry and it will continue to get better from here. As always, all our products come with the best software in the industry, autonomy features and capable of full autonomy in the future. And despite the premium experience, the total cost of ownership is close to mass market, less premium competitors.
在2025年，我们将陆续推出几款新产品。我们仍计划在2025年上半年推出一款更实惠的型号，并将在年末继续扩展我们的产品线。我们相信，就性价比而言，我们目前的产品阵容在业界是最具吸引力的，并且将会越来越好。与往常一样，我们所有的产品都配备了业内最优秀的软件、自主驾驶功能，并具备未来实现完全自主驾驶的能力。尽管我们提供的是高端体验，但总体拥有成本与大众市场上的竞争产品接近。
In early storage deployments reached an all time high in key for this and resulted in, but declined sequentially. This was a result of higher. This sorry, the growth came from mega pack and power. Both businesses continue to be supply constrained and like Elon mentioned, we're trying to ramp up production with mega factory Shanghai coming online. This quarter onwards. While quarterly deployments will likely continue to fluctuate sequentially. We expect at least 50% growth in deployments here over year in 2025. Grass profit and margins in the service and other business was up year over year, but declined sequentially. This was the result of higher service and to cost and lower profit from use car business. The businesses within service and other primarily support on new car business, especially through their impact on total cost of ownership. Therefore, while they manage them to be positive on a gap business, we do not expect similar margins as the rest of the business.
在早期的储能部署中，达到历史最高水平，这是关键因素，但随后按季度有所下降。这是由于更高的成本导致的。增长主要来自于MegaPack和Power这两个业务，这两个业务的供应仍然受到限制，正如Elon所提到的，我们正试图加速生产，上海的Mega工厂将从本季度开始投入使用。虽然季度部署可能继续出现波动，但我们预计到2025年，这方面的部署将至少同比增长50%。服务和其他业务的毛利和利润率同比增长，但按季度有所下降，这是由于更高的服务成本和较低的二手车业务利润导致的。服务和其他业务主要支持新车业务，特别是通过他们对总体拥有成本的影响。因此，尽管我们管理这些业务实现正的GAAP利润，我们不指望其利润率能与其他业务相同。
There's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs for the years we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still really reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses. Therefore, the imposition of tariffs, which is very likely. And any super custody will have an impact on our business and profitability. Our operating expense grew both year over year and sequentially. The biggest driver of the increase was on the as we continue to invest in a related initiatives. The remaining increase came from growth in our sales capabilities and marketing efforts from refer program. For 2025 we expect operating expenses to increase to support our growth initiatives.
多年来，我们一直尝试在各个市场本地化供应链，由于各类关税的不确定性，目前仍然非常依赖全球各地的零部件。因此，关税的实施（这种可能性很大）以及任何额外的费用都会对我们的业务和盈利能力产生影响。我们的运营开支无论是同比还是环比都在增加。增加的主要原因是我们继续投资相关项目。剩余的增加源于我们在销售能力和营销推广方面的增长。展望2025年，我们预计运营开支将增加，以支持我们的增长计划。
It is important to point out that the net income in Q4 was impacted by a 600 million mark to market benefit from Bitcoin. Due to the adoption of a new accounting standard for digital assets, where by will change, we'll take mark to market adjustments through other income every important period going forward. Our free cash flow for the quarter was two billion and display CapEx increase of over 2.4 billion in 2024. We were able to generate free cash flow of 3.6 billion for the year. CapEx efficiency is something we are extremely focused on while we have invested in a related initiatives. We've done so in a very targeted manner to utilize this spend to get immediate benefits. The build out of cortex was exulated because of the role. Ex actually tell us, accelerate the rollout of FSD. We were in 30. Accubility we had related CapEx including infrastructure so far has been approximately 5 billion. And for 2025 we expect our CapEx to be flat on a year or at least here basics.
重要的是要指出，第四季度的净收入受到了一项价值6亿的比特币市值调整收益的影响。这是由于采用了一项新的数字资产会计标准，我们将对每个重要时期的市值调整通过其他收入进行处理。我们本季度的自由现金流为20亿，尽管预计2024年的资本支出将增加超过24亿。我们全年创造了36亿的自由现金流。资本支出效率是我们极其关注的一项内容，在投资相关项目时我们采取了非常有针对性的方法，以便迅速获得回报。由于该角色的重要性，核心技术的建设被加速推进。我们在相关资本支出包括基础设施上的支出约为50亿，并预计到2025年我们的资本支出将在年度基础上保持平稳。
In conclusion, you know, like Elon said 25 is going to be a pivotal year for Tesla. There are a lot of investments which we made and we'll continue to make in this coming year, which will set the pace for the next phase of growth. And, you know, it is something which now I'm getting out for the fourth. It is going to be out of this world. And we just play putting the right foundation. And that's all I have. Great. Thank you very much. Now we will move over to investor questions and we will start with say.com.
总之，正如埃隆所说，25年将是特斯拉的关键一年。我们在这即将到来的一年中已经做出了很多投资，并将继续进行这些投资，这将为下一阶段的发展奠定基调。我已经第四次提到这点了，这次的改变将会非常惊人。我们正在努力奠定正确的基础。这就是我要说的全部内容。非常感谢。现在我们将进入投资者提问环节，首先请say.com提问。
The first question is, is unsupervised FSD still planned to be released in Texas and California this year. What hurdles still exists to make that happen. You address that at Texas piece, I think already. So, yeah, I'm confident that we will release unsupervised FSD in California this year as well. You know, yeah. In fact, I think we will. At most likely release unsupervised FSD in many regions of the country of the US. By the end of this year. Like we're just putting a toe in the water, then few toes, then a foot, then leg, then you know, make sure everything's cool. And we're looking for a safety level that is significantly above the average human driver. So it's not anyway, like much safer, not like a little bit safer than human way safer than you.
第一个问题是，无人监管的FSD（全自动驾驶）是否仍计划在今年在德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州发布。为了实现这一目标，目前还存在哪些障碍？你已经谈到了德克萨斯州的情况。所以，我有信心我们也会在今年在加利福尼亚发布无人监管的FSD。实际上，我认为我们很可能会在今年年底之前，在美国的许多地区发布无人监管的FSD。我们正在逐步推进，先试探性地开始，然后逐步扩大范围，确保一切正常。我们的目标是达到一个显著优于普通人类驾驶员的安全水平，因此这将比一般人类驾驶要安全得多，而不仅仅是稍微安全一点。
The standard has to be very high because the moment this any kind of, you know, accident was an autonomous car. This immediately gets worldwide headlines. Even though about 40,000 people die over your in car accidents in the US. And the most of them don't even get mentioned anywhere. But if somebody's great session within autonomous car, it's headline news. We want to avoid that. Yeah. So it's really from an ex, the only thing holding it's back is an excess of caution. But people can suddenly get a feel for how well the car would perform as unsupervised FSD by simply having car, allowing a car to drive you around your city and see how many times did you have to intervene. But you wanted to be in all were a little concerned. But how many times did you have to intervene for? For definite safety reasons. And you will find that that is currently very rare. And over time, almost never. Great. Thank you very much.
标准必须非常高，因为一旦发生与自动驾驶汽车相关的任何事故，就会立即成为全球新闻头条。虽然在美国，每年有大约4万人死于车祸，但大多数事故甚至没有被提及。然而，如果是自动驾驶汽车发生事故，那就成了头条新闻。我们希望避免这样的情况。因此，目前唯一制约自动驾驶技术发展的就是过度谨慎。不过，人们可以通过让自动驾驶汽车在自己的城市中行驶来体验其表现，以观察需要干预的次数。但关键在于，你需要关注有多少次是出于安全考虑而必须干预的。你会发现，目前这类干预的情况非常罕见，随着时间推移，几乎不会发生。非常感谢。
The next question is, are there any discussions with other auto companies about licensing FSD? Yes. What we're saying is. At this point, significant interest from a number of major car companies about licensing. Tesla full self driving technology. What we generally said is the best way to know what to do is take one of our cars apart. And then you can see where the placement of the cameras are, what the film needs are of the Tesla AI and friends computer. That's better than us, you know, setting some cat drawings. And then we're really going to entertain situations where the volume would be very high. Otherwise, it is not worth the complexity. And, and we will not. But now engineering team with. The Boris discussions with other engineering teams until we obviously have unsupervised full self driving working throughout the United States.
下一个问题是，是否有与其他汽车公司讨论过许可FSD？是的。目前，有许多主要汽车公司对特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的许可表现出极大的兴趣。我们通常会说，最好的了解方法是拆解我们的汽车，这样你就能看到摄像头的布置、特斯拉AI的计算机和相关设备的需求。这比我们提供一些工程图要有效得多。另外，我们会考虑那种能够提供非常高销量的合作情况，否则不值得增加复杂性。如果销量不高，我们不会进行这样的合作。而且在我们还没有在整个美国实现完全无人监督的自动驾驶之前，我们的工程团队也不会与其他公司的工程团队进行深入讨论。
I think the interest level from other manufacturers to license FSD will be extremely high. Once it is obvious that unless you have FSD, you're dead. Yeah. Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, is optimists now mostly design locked for 2025 production? Optimists is not designed large. So, when I say like we're, we're designing the train as it's going to redesign the train as it's going down the tracks while redesign the tracks and the train stations. Yeah. Yeah, it's it's it's rapidly evolving. It's rapidly evolving in a good direction. You know, it's pretty pretty damn amazing actually teams doing a fantastic job. We really have by far, I think by far the best team of human robotics engineers in the world. And we also have all the other ingredients necessary, you know, because you need a, you know, great factory pack. You need great power electronics. You need a great charging capability. You need a, you know, great communications, going to capital Wi-Fi and cellular connectivity.
我认为其他制造商对FSD（完全自动驾驶）的授权兴趣会非常高。一旦大家意识到没有FSD就很难生存，这种兴趣就会更加明显。好的，非常感谢。接下来的问题是，乐观者项目是否已经基本定型，准备在2025年投产？乐观者项目并没有完全定型。我们的做法就像是在重新设计一列正在前行的列车，同时也重新设计轨道和车站。是的，这个项目正在快速进展，而且方向很好。实际上，团队的表现真的非常了不起。我认为我们拥有全球最优秀的人形机器人工程师团队。此外，我们还拥有所有必要的资源，例如卓越的工厂、强大的电力电子技术、高效的充电能力以及优秀的通信能力，包括WiFi和蜂窝网络的连接。
And, and of course you need real world AI. And then the ability to scale that production to signal to huge levels. So you have to design for manufacturing. The things that, what I mean, the really what other companies are missing is they're missing the real world AI and the missing the ability to scale manufacturing to millions of units a year. I think that is an underappreciated thing that industrialization of design is the whole different thing than making a design. Yeah, prototypes that are trouble basically. Prototypes are easy production is hot. I've said that for many years. The problem is that there's like those have never been involved in production or manufacturing. Somehow think that you once you come up with some Eureka design that you magically can make a million units here.
当然，你还需要真正的现实世界人工智能。而且，还要具备将生产扩展到非常大规模的能力。因此，你必须为制造进行设计。我想说的是，其他公司真正缺乏的是现实世界的人工智能，以及将制造能力扩展到每年数百万单位的能力。我认为，设计的工业化这一点未被充分重视，它与简单地设计完全不同。基本上，原型会有各种问题。制作原型相对容易，而大规模生产则难。我已经讲了很多年了。问题在于，那些从未参与过生产或制造的人，似乎认为一旦你有了某个创意设计，就可以神奇地制造出一百万个产品。
And this is totally false. The, there needs to be some, there's some Hollywood story orbs where they show actually the problem is manufacturing. What do they do? I don't even know what it one is. You know, it's just doesn't fit the narrative. The Hollywood thing is like, it's like some loaned vendor in a garage goes Eureka. And suddenly it files a patent and suddenly there's millions of units. I like I'm listening to guys who were missing really 99% of the story. 1% is another old saying and 1% like a product is 1% inspiration 99% perspiration. The Hollywood church is 1% inspiration and minus but forgets about the 99% perspiration of actually figuring out how to make that initial prototype may factorable. And then may fact at high volume such that the product is reliable low cost consistent doesn't break down all the time. And that is 100 times water at least than the prototype. Then you have to get it there delivered back in the air.
这完全是假的。需要一些，有些好莱坞的故事情节显示问题实际上出在制造过程中。他们做了什么？我甚至不知道是什么，这不符合叙述。好莱坞的情节就像是某个借来的小供应商在车库里突然灵光一闪，然后就申请了专利，接着就生产了数百万个产品。我觉得他们只听到了故事的1%，而忽略了其余99%。还有一句老话，产品是1%是灵感，99%是汗水。而好莱坞的故事只强调了那1%的灵感，却忘记了真正要把初始的原型制作成可以批量生产的成品，是需要99%的努力的。这包括如何生产出成本低、稳定、可靠且不容易坏的产品，而这些比开发原型要困难100倍。然后还要把产品制造出来并运输给客户。
Yeah, you're going to meet all these regulations and visually and regulated around the world. It's very difficult. Great. Thank you. The next question is also optimist related when we'll test will start selling optimists. I mean, we'll be the price being. Well, the it may for this year we expect to just close the loop with optimist. Being used internally at Tesla because we obviously can easily use several thousand human rights. For you know, like the most boring annoying tasks in the factory like the task nobody wants to do. Where we have to like beg people to do this task. And then they that it's like. Like the robots totally happy to do the boring dangers repetitive task. No, no humans want to do. And that's also actually some of the easiest use cases to rest and you know have have optimists. Do things like, you know, like load load the hopper like for, you know, like say in the body line.
好的，你要遵守这些法规，全球范围内的视觉和监管都是非常困难的。太好了，谢谢你。下一个问题仍然与 Optimist 有关，什么时候开始销售 Optimist？我的意思是，它的价格会是多少？好吧，今年我们预计只是为了在内部使用 Optimist 来闭环。因为我们显然可以很容易地在工厂中使用几千个这样的机器人来完成那些枯燥乏味的任务，这些任务是没有人愿意去做的，我们不得不去求着人去做。而这些机器人才毫无怨言地乐意去做那些无聊、危险且重复的工作，这是人类不愿意做的。这实际上也是一些最简单、最适合 Optimist 的使用场景。比如说在车身线上给料斗加料等。
If you like transporting, you know, pieces of sheet metal to the. The which is really real, but the robot holding line for the body and you just have to day non stop. Take things out of it out of a for one fixture to another fixture. And it's a very boring job. That's kind of thing with the optimist could do. Okay, it runs around. It's all the wealth. So in the in the fence. Yeah, there's there's a ton of boring jobs tedious jobs, dangerous, you know, so slightly dangerous jobs that that's perfect. So would we expect to use. Well, those tasks at our factories and and that'll help us close loop for improvement this year. It's really with production version two, which I think launches sometime next year. I'd like to be the big beginning of next year, but maybe it is more like the middle of next year. And and then we have to just go with it with a.
如果你喜欢运输各种金属片，这种工作是非常真实的，但是机器人需要不停地从一个固定装置移动到另一个固定装置。这是一份非常无聊的工作，不过这正是适合使用优化机器人来完成的任务。它可以在这个过程中游走，执行一些琐碎甚至略显危险的工作，这非常适合我们。因此，我们预计会在工厂中使用这些机器人来完成这些任务，这将帮助我们在今年实现工艺改进。目前是生产版本的第二阶段，我认为它可能会在明年初或中期推出。接下来，我们就只需要继续推进这个计划了。
Production line that is. Designed for, you know, on the order of 10,000 units a month versus 1000 units a month. So when you design a unit for like we designed a production line for 1000 units a month. It takes you a while to actually reach anywhere close to 1000 units a month. And when you design and before any given production output. It takes you a while to actually reach its potential. The current line. That we're designing is for roughly 1000 units a month of. Of optimist robots. The next line would be for 10,000 years a month. The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month. And I think probably with product with version two. That is a very rough guess because there's a lot so much uncertainty here. Very rough guess that we start delivering optimist robots to. A companies that are outside of Tesla in the maybe the second half of next year, something like that. But like this is such an exponential ramp that will go from. No one's receiving human robots to.
该生产线的设计目标是每月生产大约1万台，而不是每月1000台。当你为每月1000台设计生产线时，需要一段时间才能接近这个产量。同样，当你为某个产量目标设计生产线时，也需要一段时间才能达到它的潜力。目前，我们正在设计的生产线目标是每月生产大约1000台Optimus机器人。下一条生产线的目标是每月生产1万台，再下一条则是每月生产10万台。对于第二代产品，这是一个非常粗略的估计，因为这里充满了不确定性。我们可能会在明年下半年开始向特斯拉外的公司交付Optimus机器人。不过，这种增长是如此迅速，从没有人收到人形机器人的情况到……
These things like coming out like crazy. We can't build enough. We're always going to be in the we can't build enough situation. Demand will not be a problem even at a high price. And then I said like once we start, once we're at a steady state of above a million units a year. I think the production in order for I'm confident at a million years a year that the production costs of optimist. We'll be less than 20,000. You compare the complexity of optimist to the complexity of. The car. So just the total mass and complexity. Of optimist is. It's. It's much less than a car. So. I would expect that. At similar volumes to say the model why which is an over a million units here. That you'd see optimist be. I don't know half the half the cost. Or it'll be something like that. One, but what the price of optimist is is a different matter. The price of optimist will be set by the market demand. Great. Thank you very much. The next question is what is the status on mass production of the Tesla semi and how will it impact revenue and scale. I can say that one.
这些东西像疯了一样涌现出来。我们建造的速度跟不上。我们总是处于一种“无法满足需求”的状态。即使价格高昂，需求也不会成为问题。然后我说过，一旦我们开始生产，并且每年的产量超过一百万台，我相信Optimist的生产成本会低于两万美元。如果你将Optimist的复杂性与汽车的复杂性进行比较，Optimist的总体质量和复杂性要小得多。因此，我预计在达到类似于Model Y的生产规模，即每年超过一百万台的时候，Optimist的成本可能只有一半，或者类似的水平。不过，Optimist的价格是由市场需求决定的。
谢谢。下一个问题是关于特斯拉半挂卡车的大规模生产现状，以及这将如何影响收入和规模。我来回答这个问题。
So we just closed up the semi factory roof and walls last week in Reno. So that schedule, which is great with the weather. You never know what's going to happen, but we're prepping for mechanical installation of all the equipment in the coming months. The first builds of the high volume semi design will come late this year 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026. But. As we said before, you know, the semi is a TCO no brainer. It gets really similar to the optimist. You know, set by how much people have been and you know, it has a total cost of ownership. It's much, much cheaper than any other transportation you can have. So at that point, when we're at scale, it will mean we contribute to Tesla's revenue. I think it's difficult to say how much. Thank you. Anyone? No, I mean, I. I do think it tells us that my game with autonomy. Is going to be incredibly valuable. You know, that we actually have a shortage of truck drivers in America. That's one of the learning factors on transport. And. You know, and. People are human so they get tired and sometimes and. You know, there's. It's, you know, I have a lot of respect for truck drivers because it's a tough job. But because it's a tough job, there's not that many people that want to do it. And this actually, if you're, I believe. If I were my saying is correct, there are fewer people entering truck driving as a profession than are leaving it. Yes. So when you think of it, yeah. Exactly. So, so when you consider, okay, if there's more people leaving truck driving as profession than entering it, well, we're going to have a real logistics problem as time goes by. So autonomy will be very important to me that that need. It's just like, yeah, a little. I don't know. It's a, it's a, it's a several billion a year.
上周，我们刚刚完成了雷诺半挂车工厂的屋顶和墙壁的建造，这个进度非常好，也得益于天气的配合。你永远不知道会发生什么状况，但我们正在为未来几个月的设备机械安装做准备。高产量半挂车的初步设计将于2025年底完成，并将在2026年初开始加速生产。就像我们之前提到的，半挂车在总拥有成本(TCO)方面显得尤为出色，这和特斯拉的"Optimus"有些类似。你知道，通过对比，人们会发现它的总拥有成本比任何其他运输方式都要便宜得多。因此，当我们达到规模化生产的时候，这将有助于对特斯拉的收入作出贡献。虽然很难说具体会有多少贡献。
在自主驾驶方面，特斯拉的发展潜力非常巨大。美国目前面临着卡车司机短缺的问题，这影响了运输行业。而卡车司机因为这项工作的辛苦程度，不是所有人都愿意从事这个职业。事实上，进入卡车驾驶行业的新人比离开的老手还要少。因此，这就带来了一个未来的物流问题。自主驾驶在解决这个需求上将显得尤为重要。这也意味着每年会带来数十亿的收益。
Opportunity, which I don't know in this context is that. These days. Several billion a year matter. I think it does. Not nothing. It's probably, you know, it might. It's probably like the 10 billion year thing. Yes, a billion a month at some point, probably. But it's, it's, you know, all this is going to pale in the process into optimists. So. Yeah, a billion a month is a lot, but it's. It's not. It's going to be like 1% of optimists or something. Great. Thank you very much. We already covered the next question. I think opening remarks. So moving on.
在这个语境下，我不知道“机遇”到底指的是什么。这些天来，每年价值几十亿还是挺重要的。我认为确实有一定的意义，并不是毫无价值的。大概可能像是每年100亿美元的那种水平。是的，可能某个时期每月达到10亿的规模。不过，你知道，所有这些在乐观者眼中最终可能显得微不足道。是的，每月10亿确实很多，但它可能只是乐观者收益的1%左右。好的，非常感谢。我们已经涵盖了下一个问题。我认为开场发言已经说过了，所以我们继续。
Is it expected that Tesla will need to upgrade hardware three vehicles? And if so, what is the timeline and expected impact to Tesla's CapEx? I can then refer to cost. They're really asking the top questions. I guess we're in a way. And stop working on hardware three. Yes. The phone really says we released the one dot six release recently, which was like a, it's like a baby. But it's a significant improvement compared to what they had previously. And you know, people are still finding ways to distill larger models and smaller models. So we don't give enough on hardware three, we're still working on it. Just the releases will trail the hardware for releases. Thanks. Yeah. I mean, I think. The honest answer. Is that. We're going to have to upgrade people's. Hardware three computer for those that are for portable self driving. And that is the honest answer. And that's going to be painful and difficult, but we'll get it done. Now I'm kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package. Thanks, you want the next question.
预计特斯拉是否需要升级硬件三的车辆？如果需要，时间表和对特斯拉资本支出的预期影响是什么？我可以参考成本。他们确实在问最核心的问题。我想我们在某种程度上会停止硬件三的工作。是的，最近我们发布了一点六版本，它就像是一个婴儿版，但相比之前有了显著的提升。大家仍在寻找方法将大的模型简化成小的模型。所以我们不会放弃硬件三，我们仍然在改进它。不过，它的更新速度会比硬件四慢。谢谢。我想，坦率地说，我们将不得不为需要完全自动驾驶的用户升级硬件三计算机。这是实话，这将会是一个痛苦而且困难的过程，但我们会完成这个任务。现在我有点庆幸没有太多人购买FSD（完全自动驾驶）套件。谢谢，你可以问下一个问题了。
Has Tesla given up on ramping their solar roof product? No, we're great. Sorry. Mike. Oh, Michael, I can take it. Yeah, solar roof remains a core part of the residential product portfolio and it's still remain. We're draws a lot of customer interest as fight at being premium products. We've worked on multiple iterations of engineering to make the product easier to install and distribute by the producing this queue count. And, you know, more recently, rather than direct installation, we are focused on growth through our nationwide network of certified installers. And many of those they've been selling solar roof for us for many years. It's actually turned out to be a much better way for the, like, it is just let the roof just supply product to the roofing industry. And especially when somebody's going to is getting a new roof anyway or holding a house from scratch. Obviously, this is by far the most efficient. And then we're going to put in the solar roof, as opposed to putting a solar roof on a house that where the roof still has, you know, 20 years of life. That that's not economically sensible, but. But if it's a new house or the roof needs to be replaced anyway, then solar roof can make a lot of sense. And, and it is, it is a premium product. It's, it's like the model s model X or something. It's like a, it's a premium product. I think it looks really cool. And you have, I mean, your house generates electricity. And if you combine it with the Tesla power wall battery, then you can be self sufficient. So even if the grid turns off, even if the grid turns off for several days, your house still works. And your roof looks awesome.
特斯拉是否放弃了其太阳能屋顶产品的扩展？没有，我们做得很好。抱歉，迈克。我可以回答。太阳能屋顶仍然是住宅产品组合的核心部分，并继续吸引大量客户的兴趣，虽然这是个高端产品。我们进行过多次工程改进，以使产品更易于安装和分发。最近，我们不再专注于直接安装，而是通过我们的全国认证安装商网络实现产品增长。许多安装商多年来一直在为我们销售太阳能屋顶。实际上，这种方法更好一些，即让屋顶公司来提供产品。特别是当有人正好要更换新屋顶或从零建房时，直接安装太阳能屋顶是最有效的。相对于在屋顶还有20年寿命的房子上安装，这更具经济性。如果是新房或屋顶需要更换，太阳能屋顶是非常合理的选择。它是一个高端产品，就像Model S或Model X一样。它不仅外观酷炫，还能让你的房子发电。如果你将它与特斯拉的Powerwall电池结合使用，可以实现能源自给自足。即使电网断电几天，你的房子仍能正常运作，同时屋顶也很美观。
So it's like, I recommend anyone who had your can afford it, get the Tesla solar roof and the power wall. You're at least life might depend on it. Get enough and just, just in terms of convenience. You know, your kids are not going to yell at you because their computers don't work because the power way not and they're, and you can't charge your phone. Actually, happens. Yeah. You wish we can call anyone, but your phone's on the juice. Thank you very much.
所以，我建议所有有能力的人都去购买特斯拉的太阳能屋顶和储能墙。这可能会在关键时刻保住你的生活。当然，光从便利性上来说也是非常值得的。这样，你的孩子们不会因为电脑没电而对你大发脾气，你也不必担心手机没法充电。事实上，此类情况确实会发生。你想打电话，但手机没电，那就太尴尬了。谢谢大家。
The next question was covered in opening remarks. So we will skip that. And the last question from say.com. What technical breakthroughs will define V 14 of FSD given that V 13 already covered photonic. Well, we're going to help. But help us further than photons to upward. We've been in some of the nothing but that's. A situation nothing but neural nets from photons to controls for a while now for just improving the neural nets. I guess we could get into some of the technical details to some degree. I have to say I continue to be amazed by just how effective order of rest of transformers are at solving a wide range of problems. I mean, I show is that it's anything you'd like to add there without giving away the sort of family secrets. I mean, except for things to report on X already. Yeah, it's a country and to scale the model size a lot.
下一个问题在开场发言中已经涵盖过了，所以我们将跳过这个问题。现在是来自say.com的最后一个问题。对于V14版本的全自动驾驶（FSD），哪些技术突破将是决定性的？因为V13版本已经涵盖了光子技术。我们确实在努力改进，但想要达到更高的水平。我们已经在一种从光子到控制的纯神经网络环境中发展了一段时间了，主要是不断提升神经网络的性能。我不得不说，变压器模型在解决各种问题上的高效性让我感到惊讶。我想问一下，你有没有什么可以补充的内容，但不要泄露商业机密。就除了我们在X上已经报告过的事情外，我想没有什么新的内容报告。对，还是要继续大规模扩大模型的规模。
You know, we scale a bunch of V 13, but then there's room to grow. So we're going to continue to scale the model size. We're going to increase the context length the year more. The memory sort of limited right now we want to increase the amount of memory. Also give to even minutes of context for driving. We're going to add audio and emergency levels better. I'm going to add like data of the tricky, common cases that we get from the entire fleet, you know, any interventions, but any kind of like, you know, use intervention. We sat that to the data, the data set. So scaling in basically every access to training compute and a set size model size model context, and also all the reinforcement on the objectives. Right.
我们已经扩展了很多V13版本，但还有提升的空间。所以我们会继续扩大模型的规模，并增加上下文长度。目前，内存有些限制，我们希望增加内存的容量，还要为驾驶提供更多分钟的上下文支持。我们还计划改进音频和紧急等级的功能。此外，我们会为整个车队收集的数据，特别是那些需要人工干预的复杂常见情况，加入到我们的数据集中。这意味着我们将在训练计算能力、数据集规模、模型规模、模型上下文，甚至目标的强化学习上全面扩展。
With that, we will move over to analyst questions. So just as a reminder, you will need to unmute yourself to ask your question. And the first question will be coming from Daniel Roska from Bernstein. Daniel, please go ahead and unmute yourself. Hey, good evening, everybody. It's Daniel from Bernstein. Elon Tesla share price clearly already includes quite few of the anticipated benefits you talked about today, yet realizing what you call kind of difficult, but achievable will take some time. What are you pushing the Tesla executive team to do differently now to accelerate the innovation in order to realize the value you described for the company. Well, I mean, we're. Working on perfecting real world AI and making rapid progress week of a week, if not, you know, so the month of a month, it's often recover week. I spent a lot of time with the Tesla AI team and the Tesla Optimus team. I mean, I go with the problem is essentially like, not, you know, if something is, this is, you know, unfortunately sometimes like, don't talk to Tesla executive like, Hey, we don't see you very often.
好的，接下来我们进入分析师提问环节。提醒一下，提问时需要解除静音。第一个问题来自Bernstein的Daniel Roska。Daniel，请解除静音开始提问。大家晚上好，我是Bernstein的Daniel。显然，特斯拉的股价已经包含了你们今天提到的许多预期收益，然而实现你们称为困难但可实现的目标还需要时间。你现在是如何推动特斯拉的管理团队来加速创新，以实现公司所描述的价值呢？
我们一直在努力完善现实世界的人工智能，每周都在快速进步，不出意外的话，每个月都会有所收获。我花了很多时间与特斯拉的AI团队和Optimus团队一起工作。问题在于，有时候我们不太能和特斯拉的管理层交流，比如，他们会说：“我们不太常见到你。”
I'm like, that's because your stuff is working awesome. You're so working really great. Unfortunately, I didn't see them very often because I go with the problem is. So, you know, it's one of the problems with like what's the greatest challenge that lies ahead so. Obviously there's there are many challenges with the Optimus. It's a hard problem to solve. Many challenges with the vehicle of China mean, but we're making rapid progress in both. Yeah. Okay. I mean, sounds like you, you've got a conviction that the pieces you need, right, are are in place.
我当时就想，那是因为你的工作真的很出色。你做得非常好。可惜，我并没有经常看到你的成果，因为我都是去处理问题的。所以，你知道的，这也是我们面临的一个问题，像是什么是未来最大的挑战。显然，Optimus面临着许多挑战，这个问题很难解决。同样，涉及中国市场的载具也有很多难题，但我们在这两个方面都取得了快速进展。嗯，好吧，我的意思是，听起来你对需要的各个部分都已经到位充满信心。
Yeah. If we kind of go 12 months down the line and we look back and you had some of those, but maybe what are the kind of two or three KPI's that would tell you that, you know, you're on track and it's going the right way and the pieces you put in place are the right pieces right that's kind of what I'm looking for. Or other way around. Where would it be off most likely in your mind that you say, Hey, I need to go back there and I need to change something to enable the team better. Well, I mean, I think my, the predictions that I'm making here are going to be pretty accurate.
好的。如果我们回顾过去12个月，并看看你已经取得了一些进展，那么有哪些两到三个关键绩效指标（KPI）可以告诉你，你正在走在正确的道路上，所采取的措施是正确的？这就是我想了解的。或者反过来说，在什么情况下你可能会觉得需要回到原点并做出改变，以更好地支持团队的发展？我认为，我在这里做出的预测会相当准确。
Yeah, and it's worth the neck. So sometimes goes, Oh, you want to always late. Well, actually know the problems of the media reports on when I'm late, but never reports when I'm early. So sure I'm optimistic, but I'm not bad at mistake. You know, there are many cases in past where I actually we've been early, you know, such as completion of the Shanghai factory. Or, frankly, for factory completion is generally been ahead of schedule, not behind.
是的，这值得一试。所以有时候人们会说：“哦，你总是迟到。”但实际上，媒体只会报道我迟到的时候，却从来不报道我提前的时候。所以我是乐观的，但这并不意味着我总是犯错。你知道，在过去有很多情况下，我其实是提前完成的，比如上海工厂的竣工。坦白说，工厂的建成通常都是提前完成的，而不是落后的。
Yeah, so, so the. But I like some very confident will have released. Unsupervised, full self driving for the autonomous Teslas in Austin and several other cities in America by the end of this year. That's probably everywhere in America next year at everywhere in North America, at least. I think in terms of next year are constraints. I think it's likely to be just regulatory. You know, like, like Europe really has, for example, Europe is a layer cake of, of regulations and bureaucracy, which really needs to be addressed.
是这样的，但我非常有信心，到今年年底，特斯拉在奥斯汀和美国其他几个城市的自动驾驶电动车将会发布上线无人驾驶的完整版本。明年可能会在美国的各个地方普及，至少在北美的范围内。我认为明年唯一可能的限制因素就是法规，就像欧洲真的是一个法规和官僚主义的复杂体系，确实需要解决这些问题。
You know, there's this. You know, joke like America innovates Europe regulates. It's like guys. There's too many reps on the field. I mean, for example, for us just to release on just just to release supervised, full self driving in Europe, even though it works really well. We have to go through. Amount of paperwork with the Netherlands, which is our primary regulatory authority, then the Netherlands presents this to the EU and I think may. And there's like the state, EU country committee. We expect it to be approved at that time, but there's nothing we can do to make that may happen sooner.
你知道，有个笑话是这样说的：美国负责创新，欧洲负责监管。这就好比球场上有太多的裁判。举个例子，对于我们来说，即便我们研发的全自动驾驶技术表现极佳，要在欧洲推出，还需要完成大量的文书工作。首先，我们需要通过在荷兰的审批，因为荷兰是我们的主要监管机构。然后荷兰再将这个提交给欧盟。我想可能还有一个欧盟成员国的委员会。我们预计届时会得到批准，但在此之前我们无能为力。
In fact, nobody seems to. If I guess all the countries that have to somehow. If I was in some way to have it happen sooner than may. Otherwise, it won't happen sooner than may. So then, well, then when is unsupervised. Ever see a lot in Europe, I'm like. May next year, maybe I don't know. Well, to find out when you use meeting a game. Sometimes it's a 12 month cadence, sometimes it's six month cadence.
事实上，好像没有人知道。如果我去猜所有必须参与的国家。如果我能以某种方式让它更快发生。否则，它不会在五月之前发生。因此，那么，到底什么时候没有明确的监督呢。每当看到欧洲有很多事情时，我就在想。也许是明年五月，我也不确定。嗯，要弄清楚什么时候见面就像玩游戏。有时候是12个月的间隔，有时候是6个月的间隔。
Then China, which is a huge, gigantic market. We do have some challenges because they weren't. It was currently allow us to transfer training video outside of China. And then. The US government won't let us do training in China. So we're in a bit of a bind there. So it went like. What are quandary? So what we were resolving that is. By literally. Looking at. Videos of streets in China that are available on the Internet. To understand and then feeding that into our radio training.
然后谈到中国，这是一个庞大无比的市场。我们确实遇到了一些挑战，因为他们不允许我们将训练视频转移到中国境外。同时，美国政府也不允许我们在中国进行培训。我们因此陷入了困境。我们的解决办法是通过互联网查看可用的中国街景视频，然后将这些信息融入我们的无线电培训中。
So that publicly available video of street signs and traffic rules in China. Can be can be used for training. And then also putting it into a very accurate. Simulator and so it will train using some for. You know, bus lanes in China, like bus lanes in China, by the way, what about. The biggest challenges. And making. FSD working Chinese is the bus lanes are very complicated. And there's like literally like hours of the day that you're allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, the. You get an automatic ticket instantly. So it's kind of a big deal. Bus lanes in China. So we're going to put that into our. Simulator train on that. The car has to know what time date is. Read the sign. We'll get the salt, but.
将那些中国街道标志和交通规则的公共视频用于训练，并将其投入一个非常精确的模拟器进行训练。例如，中国的公交车道。这是个挑战，因为中国的公交车道非常复杂。在不同的时间段你可以或不可以进入这些车道。如果不小心在错误的时间进入公交车道，你会立即收到自动罚单。所以这确实很重要。因此，我们将这些复杂的公交车道信息加入我们的模拟器进行训练。车辆需要知道当前时间和日期，并能够读取标志。通过这种方式，我们可以解决问题。
You know, I think we'll have on to buy. FSD in almost every market. This year. Limited simply by regulatory issues. Not technical capability. And then, and then unsupervised FSD in the US this year. In many cities, but nationwide next year. And hopefully we have unsupervised FSD. In most countries by the end of next year. That's the best. My prediction with best data that I have. Right. Great. Thank you very much.
你知道，我认为我们今年几乎可以在所有市场上购买完整自动驾驶（FSD）。唯一的限制是法规问题，而不是技术能力。然后，今年在美国的许多城市将会有无人监督的FSD，明年将在全国推开。希望到明年底，我们能在大多数国家实现无人监督的FSD。这是基于我所掌握的最佳数据的预测。好的，非常感谢。
The next question will come from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. Adam, please feel free to admit yourself. Thanks everybody. So Elon. You've said in the past about LIDAR. For a visit that LIDAR is a crutch of fools errand. I think you even told me once, even if it was free, you'd say you wouldn't use it. You still feel that way. Yes. Care to elaborate or just. I have another question. Look, we even have a radar in the car and we tend to go. I got it. All right. So you're. People think you're crazy, you know, but.
下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Adam Jonas。Adam，请随时发言。谢谢大家。那么，Elon，你过去谈到过LIDAR（激光雷达）。你曾说LIDAR是愚蠢的拐杖。我记得你还对我说过，即使它是免费的，你也不会使用它。你现在仍然这么觉得吗？是的。能详细说明一下吗，还是说你有其他问题？你看，我们甚至在车里配置了雷达，而且我们趋向于……我明白了。人们觉得你有些疯狂，但是……
For not. I mean, I'm seeing humans drive without shooting lasers out of their eyes. I mean, let's your Superman. You know, but. I mean, I'm sure you're right. I mean, I'm sure you're right. I mean, let's your Superman. You know, but like humans drive just with passive visual. It was driving with with eyes and a neural net and a brain neural net. So sort of biological, which is so the digital equivalent of eyes and a brain are cameras and. And digital neural nets are a I. So. That's the entire road system was designed for passive optical neural nets. That's how the whole system was not designed and what everyone is expecting out of the car.
暂时不会。我是说，我看到人类在开车时并没有从眼睛中射出激光。我是说，除非你是超人，你知道的。但是我确信你是对的。我是说，确实如此。人类只用被动视觉来开车，也就是靠眼睛和大脑里的神经网络开车。所以这种方式可以算是一种生物学上的行为，而数字版的眼睛和大脑就是摄像头和数字神经网络，也就是人工智能。所以整个道路系统其实是为被动光学神经网络设计的，这就是整个系统的设计初衷，也是每个人对汽车的期望。
That's how we expect other parts to behave. So therefore that is very obviously the solution. For full self driving as a generalize, but the generalize solution. For full self driving. As opposed to the very specific, you know, neighborhood by neighborhood solution, which very difficult to maintain, which is what our competitors are doing. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I thought it doesn't work in the fall. Guys. Yeah, it has a lot of issues. Wait, I don't absolutely like the SpaceX dragon. Docs with the space station using light are that. A program that I personally spearheaded. I don't have some fundamental bizarre dislike of light. It's simply the wrong solution for driving car loan roads. Right. Right. You understand how light are works. I guess. I literally designed and built a earned red light. I oversaw the project. The engineering thing. It was my decision to use light on dragon. And I saw that that engineering project directly. So, oh, I'm like, we literally designed and made a rate of a ladder. The doctor space station. If I thought it was right solution for cars, I would do that, but it doesn't. Yeah. All right. Just as a project. Yeah. All right. Just as a follow up at CES. You said I paraphrasing that any AI will be able to do any cognitive task, not involving atoms within the next three or four years. And that would imply, Elon, that before the end of. President Trump's term in office, that AI would be moving pretty damn quickly into the physical world, into the world of photons and atoms. And I'm thinking, given your work. With the administration, how confident are you that the US. Has will have the manufacturing and the supply base to make good. On your excitement about physical AI by the, you know, end of, by latter this decade. We seem pretty vulnerable right now. I've seen you tweeting about, or sorry, X saying, excuse me, Elon, about China. Freudian slip about China having like making more drones in a day than the US makes in the year and all the entanglement of the supply. So what has to happen in the US to make that possible? What's your message and what can, what can you do about it? And what's relevant for Tesla, chair holders? Thanks, Elon. Well, Tesla, obviously we think manufacturing is cool. SpaceX, we think manufacturing is cool. But in general, for talented Americans, they need to be on, you know, my, beyond my company is growing me at an annual time. And my team is here. In general, we need to make manufacturing cool again in America. And, you know, like, honestly, think people should move from like law and finance into manufacturing. That's my understanding. This is both a compliment and a criticism. We have too much talent in law and engineering, law and finance in America. And there should be more of that talent in manufacturing. So. Yeah. I mean, I tell Tesla we're making sure that we can continue to manufacture our stuff. Even in the event of geopolitical tensions. Rising to very high levels. Great. Thank you very much. The next question will come from Pierre Farragou, new street. Pierre, please feel free to unmute yourself. Hey, thanks guys. I'll take things a question. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I mean, I tell Tesla we're making sure that we can continue to manufacture our stuff. Even in the event of geopolitical tensions.
这是我们期望其他部分所具有的表现方式，因此这显然是解决方案，是全自动驾驶的通用解决方案，而不是非常具体地针对每个社区的解决方案，这种解决方案很难维护，我们的竞争对手正在这样做。我并不是对激光雷达有根本性的反感，只是因为它不是在道路上驾驶汽车的正确解决方案。就如同 SpaceX 的龙飞船使用激光雷达对接国际空间站，这是我亲自负责的项目，我在这个工程项目上亲自做出了使用激光雷达的决策。如果我认为激光雷达是汽车的正确解决方案，我会使用它，但事实并非如此。
在 CES 上，你提到在未来三到四年内，任何 AI 都将能够完成不涉及实物层面的认知任务，这意味着在特朗普总统任期结束前，AI 会迅速进入物理世界。那么，你对美国具备实现物理 AI 制造和供应基础的信心如何呢？目前我们似乎很脆弱。我看到你（抱歉，我应该说 X 发言）提到中国一天制造的无人机数量比美国一年制造的还多，以及供应链的复杂关系。那么美国应做些什么来改变这种局面呢？你想传达什么信息，以及你能做什么？这对特斯拉利益相关者有什么意义？谢谢你，Elon。
对特斯拉和 SpaceX 来说，我们显然认为制造业很酷。在美国，我们需要让制造业重新变得有吸引力。我认为人们应该从法律和金融领域转向制造业，这即是一种称赞也是一种批评。美国在法律和金融领域的人才太多了，而我们应该有更多的人才投身制造业。我告诉特斯拉，我们确保即便在地缘政治紧张局势升高的情况下，也能够继续生产我们的产品。谢谢大家，接下来的问题来自 Pierre Farragou, new street。请随意解除静音。
So I have a question you learn on. Departing like Robert X is in June in in Austin. So that's great news. And I was wondering if it means I can, you know, drive down to Austin in June and try. And try and supervise by myself is my car. Oh, it's going to be more like. Your fleet testing it. It'll be our fleet testing it. That's our sort of toe in the water. You know, we would be scrutinizing it very carefully. Make sure it's not something we missed. But it will be, you know. Right. Autonomous ride healing. For money in Austin. In June. And then. As shortly as possible, other cities in America. And I expect us to be. Operating had during concert vice. Activity with with with our internal fleet. And several cities by the end of the year. Then it's probably next year when people are able to. Add or subtract their car from the fleet. So, you know, come on Airbnb where you can sort of add or subtract your house or guest room. You know, you can say like. What do you want to do? I want to do that. I want to do that. I want to do that. So, you know, if you're a. If you're traveling for a month, you've been. Or whatever in case maybe you can. But other people use your house. And anyway, so that's probably next year, because we want to just make sure we're buying it out. Any, any kinks. And a lot of it is. We're not splitting the atom here. It's just a bunch of work that needs to be done to make sure the whole thing works efficiently that people can order the car. It comes. You know, it's the right spot does exactly the right thing. All the payment systems work. The billing works. Yeah. Okay. So, my, my sort of question would be, you know, I have a Tesla. I have a FSD and I have to get my eyes on the on the road all the time. It's super boring because I don't really need to intervene anymore. And the really annoying thing is that I can't just check my emails. And so are you working also on introducing, you know, like a kind of like free and supervised where I could be eyes off and I would be able to check. I would be able to check my email and we just need to with a five second notice have to go back and keep an eye on what's happening or is that something you're working on as well because it feels so close with this certain that I wonder if it's something we'd expect for this year. It's very sensitive question. I asked for myself to be honest. Yes. We just think we need to be very confident that the probability of injury is low before we're able to check the check check with their email and text messages.
我有一个问题想请教。六月的时候，像Robert X这样的项目将在奥斯汀展开，这真是个好消息。我在想这是否意味着我可以在六月开车去奥斯汀，自己试试看并监督自己的车辆呢？哦，更像是你们的车队在测试。我们将会用我们的车队来测试，这是我们的一次试水。我们会非常仔细地审查，确保没有遗漏。这将是在奥斯汀开展的自动驾驶出租车业务，六月开始盈利。之后，尽快扩展到美国的其他城市。我预计在今年年底前，我们将在几座城市开展内部车队的活动。可能要到明年，大家才能像在Airbnb上添加或移除房屋或客房那样，添加或移除他们的车。比如说，如果你要出差一个月，可以让其他人使用你的车。总之，这可能是明年的事情，因为我们想解决任何潜在问题。很多事情其实不是技术难题，只是需要大量工作来确保整个系统高效运作，比如用户可以订车，车按时到达、操作正确，支付系统和账单也顺利运作。
所以，我的问题是，我有一辆特斯拉，还有自动驾驶功能，但我必须一直盯着路，这很无聊，因为基本不需要我干预。最烦的是我不能分心去查看邮件。那么你们是否在研究一种“自由监督”的模式，让我可以不盯着路看，其间查邮件，只需在五秒钟内恢复注意力？感觉这很有可能实现，所以想知道今年有没有计划推出这个功能。这是个很敏感的问题，我也是为自己问的。是的，在能够查看邮件和短信之前，我们需要确保受伤概率很低。
In fact, right now we're in this perverse situation which may have encountered yourself where people actually go to manual driving to check the text messages. Yep. So the computer doesn't yell at them. And then go then put it back on autonomous mode. Once they have checked the text text messages, which is obviously less safe significantly less safe. They're just letting people check their text once in a while without the computer yelling at them. But we just want to be cautious about that at the end of that we're in this sort of, you know, neither here nor there. But just for, I mean, I think it's not for many months longer. But yeah, we're in this perverse situation where people will turn the car off autopilot so the computers and yell at them check the text text messages as well. It's the last area of the car with their knee and not looking out the window. And like, like you said, right. If you have any problems when the system. And when people are not looking, that is a dangerous. And that's what we're trying to avoid. It's the capability is getting there, but it's not fully there. That's why he was using the term of tipping toe in the water, then getting comfortable. Thank you. Anyway, it's not far off. But we were not want to prove to ourself. I didn't prove prove to ourselves and obviously proved to regulators that the car is unequivocally safer. In autonomous mode, then they're not. And that's we're not far off. So this is. Like low single digit months. To the safety aspect, we did publish our safe. The equal safety report today.
事实上，目前我们处在一种怪异的状况中，你可能自己也遇到过这种情况：人们实际上是切换到手动驾驶模式来查看短信。这是因为电脑在自动驾驶模式下会提醒他们不要分心。因此，他们在查看完短信后才会再切换回自动驾驶模式。不过，这种做法显然要安全性低得多。我们只是希望在允许人们偶尔查看短信时能尽量避免这种情况发生。但目前我们有点处于进退两难的地步。不过，我觉得这种局面不会持续太多个月。人们会暂时关闭自动驾驶模式，以便电脑不提醒他们注意短信，接着他们会用膝盖控制方向盘，并不看窗外。此外，正如你所提到的，当系统出现问题而人们没有集中注意力时，这是非常危险的，这正是我们想要避免的情况。这个功能正在逐渐完善，但还没有完全成熟。这就是为什么我们小心翼翼地逐步适应。然而，我们离证明给自己和监管机构看的目标已经不远了，即自动驾驶模式的安全性不容置疑地比手动驾驶更高。而我们距离这个目标只剩几个月的时间了。另外，今天我们也发布了我们的安全报告。
And then she was one crash for every 5.9 million miles. Treatment compared to a crash every 700,000 miles without. Right. So we're getting to the point where it's in order of. Yeah, it's like 8.5 times. So it's just about that. Yeah, it's amazing. Right. Alrighty. And our last question will be coming from Dan Levi at Barclays. Dan, feel free to unmute yourself. Great. Good evening. Thank you for taking other questions. You long you talked about the need for proliferation of sustainable transport in the past as part of broader push to sustainable energy. Okay, I know we've heard a lot about President Trump's plans to reverse the EV mandate and I think there's a view that. Given regulation is a driver of EV uptake. This could slow EV uptake in the US. So what would be your view on the right policy in the US. Given your comments in the past of the need to push for sustainable transport. You know, at this point, I think that that's sustainable transport is inevitable. I'm highly confident that all transport. Will be autonomous electric, including aircraft. And that it's simply it's it can't be stopped any more than. One could have stopped the advent of the external combustion engine steam engine or or one could have stopped the. Advent of the internal combustion engine. Like, like, even if you've been the biggest force advocate. And on earth, you'd like it like a. Courses are the way. Thought these new fangled car automobiles. You can't stop the advent of automobile. It's going to happen. And you can't you can't stop the advent of electric cars. It's going to happen. The only thing holding back electric cars was range and that is a sole problem.
然后，她每行驶590万英里就会发生一次事故。相比之下，在没有进行处理的情况下，每70万英里就会发生一次事故。对吧。因此，我们正接近这一点。是的，大约是8.5倍。所以差不多就是这样。对，这很惊人。好的。我们的最后一个问题将由来自巴克莱的丹·利维提出。丹，请随时取消静音。好的，晚上好，谢谢您回答其他问题。您之前多次谈到过在更广泛的推动可持续能源过程中推广可持续交通的必要性。我知道我们已经听过很多关于特朗普总统计划撤回电动车强制令的消息，我想有一种看法认为，由于法规是电动车推广的驱动力，这可能会减缓电动车在美国的普及。那么，考虑到您过去对推进可持续交通的评论，您认为美国的正确政策应该是什么？您知道，到了这个阶段，我认为可持续交通是不可避免的。我非常有信心，所有的交通工具，包括飞机，都会实现自动化和电气化。这根本无法被阻止，就像当初没人能阻止外燃机的出现、蒸汽机的出现，或者内燃机的出现一样。即使你是地球上最大的马车倡导者，你也不得不承认，汽车的出现是不可阻挡的。而电动车的发展也将如此，这是必然会发生的。唯一阻碍电动车发展的只是续航里程问题，而这已经是一个孤立的问题。
Great. And then as a follow up, you know, in the past, you had made a comment that, you know, you'd be willing to sell cars effectively. No margin to get the cars out there. And there's a comment in the release today of the rate of. Acceleration of a Tony efforts does impact volume growth. So perhaps you could just talk about, you know, with your efforts on. FSD. How we should think about your desire to put more vehicles out in the market to. Take advantage of your of your tech advances. So I'm not sure I'm sending a question. But we have a lot of cars from millions of cars out there. So is your question, Dan, that how do we, how do we marry our future growth aspects with FSD. And go ahead and meet yourself, Dan. Yeah, more so just how much more aggressively you would be willing to sell your cars versus versus, you know, in light of your of your improvements on FSD. Well, right now the constraint we're trying to solve is. Battery production. As opposed to demand. So. And now Q one about this massive factory retooling for the new model life, for example, that obviously has a short of impact on output. But the problem with wrestling with in fact, we're talking. The executive team. And I were talking about just before this call was. How to prepare and how to increase total gig watt hours of factory production this year, one way or another. That's the constraint on our output. Great.
好的。然后作为后续问题，过去您曾表示愿意在没有利润的情况下卖车，以便将汽车推向市场。今天发布的声明中提到Tony方面的加速努力确实会影响销量增长。所以也许你可以谈谈你的FSD（全自动驾驶）努力，以及我们应该如何看待你希望将更多车辆投入市场以利用技术进步的愿望。我不太确定我是否在表达一个问题，但我们在市场上已经有很多车了。所以，Dan，你的问题是不是关于我们如何将未来的增长与FSD结合起来？请解除静音，Dan。是的，我想知道您在FSD的改进下，是否会更积极地销售汽车。当前我们要解决的限制是电池产能，而不是需求。而在第一季度，由于新车型重大的工厂改造，这也影响了产量。实际上，执行团队和我在电话前就在讨论如何准备以及如何在今年增加电池工厂的总千兆瓦时产能。这是目前限制我们产量的问题。好的。
Alrighty. And with that, I think we are all down for today. So thanks everyone so much for all your questions. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much. Goodbye.
好的。说到这里，我想我们今天就到此为止了。非常感谢大家提出的问题。我们期待下季度能再次与你们交流。非常感谢。再见。
Alright, everybody, just one second here. Let me. We'll talk about earnings. Let me make sure we're all set up here. If you guys can let me know if the audio is at a decent level. It looks like it shouldn't be. But we can talk about the call. Talk a little bit more about some of the stuff we didn't get to this afternoon. If you missed the shareholder letter reaction. That's on the channel as well. Link is in the description.
好的，各位，稍等一下。让我先确认一下。我们会讨论收益。让我确保一切准备就绪。如果大家可以告诉我音频是否合适，那就太好了。看上去应该没问题。我们也可以聊一下电话会议，讨论一些我们今天下午没有涉及到的内容。如果你错过了股东信的反应，可以在频道上找到，链接在描述中。
But looks like. Pretty good call overall. Pretty positive reaction at least in the in the markets here. Looks like right now Tesla after hours at is at about $407. So up even a couple more percent after the earnings call. I think we. Elon started out with a lot of optimism, I think, and just confidence in where Tesla is positioned. And some of the things that should be coming for Tesla in the near future, whether that's this year, next year, the following year.
看起来总体来说是个不错的表现。市场反应也相当正面。现在在盘后交易中，特斯拉的股价大约是407美元，所以在财报电话会议结束后又上涨了几个百分点。我认为，马斯克一开始就充满了乐观和对特斯拉当前定位的信心，以及对特斯拉在不久的将来，无论是今年、明年还是后年，所将取得的一些进展充满期待。
I think Elon set up the narrative well that. You know, we've been in this transition period for Tesla. We're starting to see the fruits of that, particularly with version 13. If that rate of progress continues and if Tesla is able to achieve what they think they can achieve, particularly relating to FSD, unsupervised in Austin this year. You really start to gain a lot of confidence in, you know, that transition period starting to move out of that into kind of the next phase of growth. For Tesla and that's where Elon's mind has been at. That's where it's at now. And I think, you know, he's always many steps ahead, but that's sort of the area that he mentally lives in is that, you know, future sort of sort of area.
我觉得埃隆很好地设置了这个叙述。你知道，我们一直处于特斯拉的转型期。我们开始看到这个转型带来的成果，尤其是在第13版上。如果这种进展速度继续下去，而且特斯拉能够实现他们认为可以达到的目标，特别是今年在奥斯汀实现无人监督的完全自动驾驶（FSD），你就会对这个转型时期充满信心，觉得它正在朝着下一个增长阶段迈进。这就是埃隆的想法，也是他目前的关注点。我认为，你知道，他总是超前很多步，但他精神上生活在那种未来的发展领域。
So that's where he's already at. That's why he's been confident. That's why he's continuing to be very confident and excited about Tesla's business. I think he did a great job of just explaining that to people and, you know, representing it with a lot of confidence. So exciting to see. I think the market reacting positively to that. We talked a little bit about the earnings report on its own. The numbers not great. You know, obviously average selling prices declining. That's hurting automotive revenue, it's hurting automotive gross margin. That's hurting operating margins and profits and net income. All this sort of thing is there's a lot of negative repercussions of that.
所以这就是他目前的状况。这也是他一直自信的原因。他对特斯拉业务充满信心和期待。我认为他非常出色地向大家解释了这一点，并以极大的信心展示出来。看到这一点真是令人兴奋。我认为市场对此反应积极。我们稍微谈了一下财报本身，数字方面并不理想。显然，平均售价的下降影响了汽车收入和毛利率，也影响了营业利润和净收入。所有这些都有很多负面影响。
But this is a point in time as every quarter is, it's a snapshot. It's a point in time. There's a lot influencing that from one quarter to the next. Last quarter, we had great operating margins, right? Relative to how the last few quarters had gone. So even just in the last six months, we can see how much that can fluctuate. So historically Tesla investors, or I guess the market more broadly speaking, haven't done a great job of really realizing that or recognizing that. But there seems to be in the after hours today, at least a fair amount of recognition that, you know, that's what we're living through right now. This is a transition period. We've got the new Model Y coming up. I think that helps with the market's optimism that, you know, average selling prices can rebound.
这只是一个时间点，就像每个季度一样，是一个快照。这是一个时间点。每个季度之间有很多因素在影响。上个季度我们的运营利润率很好，对比过去几个季度的表现来看是不错的。所以，仅在过去六个月中，我们就能看到这种波动有多大。历史上，特斯拉的投资者，或者说市场更广泛的范围上讲，对于真正理解或认识到这一点做得不够好。但是，至少在今天的盘后交易中，似乎有相当多的人意识到，现在正处于这样的一个过渡时期。我们即将推出新的Model Y。我认为这有助于市场对平均售价可以回升的乐观情绪。
Cost can potentially continue to decline. Some of that margin comes back. But really what's most important, you know, if you're, if you're invested in Tesla, obviously there's a high multiplier right now. You're not really invested for profits on, you know, Model 3 and Model Y as they currently exist today. You're likely invested for other reasons related to AI related to optimists, things like this. Tesla's future cash flows that they can produce on future products. And the technological lead that Tesla seems to have had now for many years. And for those things, none of what we saw in Q4 is really all that relevant. You know, not to diminish that like the business as it operates is important. But really what's most important is that it can fund these, you know, investments in AI infrastructure.
成本有可能会继续下降。一部分利润空间会回升。但真正重要的是，如果你投资Tesla，你会知道其市盈率非常高。实际上，你不是为了当前的Model 3和Model Y的利润而投资的。你可能是因为AI相关的项目或Optimus等原因进行投资。Tesla未来能够通过其未来产品产生的现金流以及许多年来保持的技术领先地位也是投资的重要考量因素。关于这些方面，第四季度的财报数据并不特别重要。虽然重要的是日常运营业务，但更重要的是公司能够为AI基础设施等投资提供资金。
This 450,000 H100 cortex that Tesla has been able to train FSD version 13 on, which we'll talk a little bit more about. And hopefully then version, you know, whether it's 13 or 14. Hopefully that can become unsupervised in certain locations and then Tesla can very rapidly roll that out. That's what, you know, that's what people should be excited about. And that's what's most important.
特斯拉已经在这一套45万个H100核心上训练了FSD版本13，我们稍后会详细讨论一下这个。这也许意味着未来的版本，不论是13还是14，能够在某些地方实现无人监督的驾驶，然后特斯拉能非常快速地推出这项技术。这是大家应该感到兴奋的事情，也是最重要的事情。
And I think interestingly, there's a pretty good amount of market recognition of that in the reaction today, which is again, a bit unusual. But again, I think Elon did a great job of contextualizing that, you know, stating it in both confidence and succinct way at the beginning of the call. I thought it was a great call from Elon and from the Tesla team. So excited about that. So we can go through the notes and then we can get to some of the topics that we didn't get a chance to discuss earlier today. If anyone has questions, I'll try to get to those as well. It's a little bit easier if they come through in the super chats.
我认为有趣的是，今天市场对该事件的反应相当认可，这有点不寻常。不过我还是觉得Elon在电话会议开始时，以自信和简洁的方式很好地阐述了背景。我觉得这次电话会议无论是Elon还是特斯拉团队都表现得很出色，因此对此感到兴奋。我们可以先看看笔记，然后讨论一些今天早些时候没能谈到的主题。如果有人有问题，可以提出来，我会尽量解答。通过超级聊天提问会方便一些。
I think I can just try to get my view set up here. Let me try to expand this a bit. Okay. All right. So just going to like go through some of the notes that we went through here, just kind of piece by piece. I mentioned a couple of the more major ones earlier though. So really just talking about the business, but maximizing volumes doubling down on autonomy, really more like 10 xing down on autonomy. We heard a lot about that throughout the call investments in AI and robotics that will pay immense dividends in the future, emphasizing that they will be immense path for Tesla to be the most valuable company in the world, maybe several times more valuable than the next closest company, maybe as much as the next five companies combined. There's a chance of that difficult pass path, but achievable path.
我想我可以在这里先试着把我的视图设置好。让我尝试扩大一点。好的。那么我就带大家回顾一下我们在这里讨论的一些笔记，一部分一部分地来。我之前提到了一些比较重要的点。所以这次主要是讲关于业务的，包括最大化产量，加倍致力于自动化，实际上是10倍投入到自动化。我们在整个电话会议中听到了很多这方面的内容，特别是关于人工智能和机器人技术的投资，这些将在未来带来巨大的回报。强调特斯拉的前景是成为世界上最有价值的公司，比接下来的公司总和可能还要多好几倍。这是一条有挑战但可以实现的道路。
So we've heard Elon say things like this before, Apple, Aramco, you know, valuation combines multiple trillions of dollars. So nothing really new on that front, but seems like maybe if it's possible, even a little bit more confidence in that statement or of the probability of that outcome than when you want to set that before. And obviously the, you know, vast, vast, vast majority of that, which came up again when talking about the semi. Yes, semi could be a $10 billion product could have great margins on that. You know, I don't know what they would be 20, 30% when you include autonomy, probably even more significant than that. But I guess take that out for the second, when we talk about this, but even a product line like that, potentially pretty much a material to the opportunity for these other things as Elon has talked about.
我们之前听过埃隆说过类似的话——苹果和阿美石油的市值总和达到数万亿美元。因此，这方面没有什么新鲜事，但似乎他在这次表达中似乎更加自信，或者说这种结果的可能性比以前更大。显然，当谈到半挂卡车时，这一点再次被提起。是的，半挂卡车可能成为一个价值达100亿美元的产品，并具有极高的利润率。你知道，我不确定利润率会是多少，可能是20%到30%，再加上自动驾驶功能，利润可能更显著。但就在此时此刻，当我们讨论这个问题时，即使是这样的产品线，相对于埃隆所提到的其他机会，可能还是相对次要的。
Talking about increasing the utility of a vehicle, you know, potentially five times what it is today, just sitting around not being put to work. They didn't talk about it on this call, but one of the things that they've talked about before with hardware five is even potentially increasing the utility of that by potentially, you know, operating AI, sort of like a cloud based AI system when the cars aren't, you know, utilizing it for driving. They could potentially be using that compute for other things, which is probably interesting in the concept of what we've seen in the context of what we've seen this week with deep seek, obviously, or something like that. Deep seek, obviously, or, you know, over the last month or so with deep seek, but really sort of coming to you ahead this week with deep seek R one.
关于提升车辆的使用效率，有人提到，车辆的效用可能会比现在提高五倍，因为很多车辆常常闲置，没有被充分利用。虽然他们在这次会议上没有讨论这个问题，但他们之前提到过，通过硬件五，车辆的利用率甚至可能会提高。这可能是通过使用人工智能，比如建设一个基于云的AI系统来实现的，当车辆不用于驾驶时，可以利用其计算能力来做其他事情。这在我们本周看到的深度搜索（deep seek）这个概念中显得尤为有趣，特别是随着深度搜索R1的推出，这一点在最近一个月左右的时间里逐渐显现出来。
I would think that that would increase the probability of being able to leverage hardware that would be in a vehicle like hardware five for AI related tasks. But that's very early take, obviously people still sorting through what the implications of deep seek are, but that would have been a much better question. Adam Jonas Morgan Stanley, that would have been a much better question than asking about LIDAR. How many times do we need to ask about LIDAR? I mean, seriously. Go read the transcript from any other call over the last many years when that has been asked identically. It's just I can't I'm extremely baffled by asking that question extremely baffled.
我认为，这会增加利用像“硬件五”这样的车辆中的硬件来执行与AI相关任务的可能性。不过，目前对此的看法还很初步，显然大家仍在理清深度搜寻计划的具体影响。但这个问题总比问关于激光雷达的问题要好得多。亚当·乔纳斯（来自摩根士丹利），这个问题比问激光雷达好得多。我们还要问多少次关于激光雷达的问题？我的意思是，拜托。看看过去几年任何一次电话会议的记录，这个问题都被一模一样地问过。我感到非常困惑，实在无法理解为什么还在问这个问题。
Okay, I'm getting heated here, but sad, sad that that was the question that was asked. All right, where are we at? Autonomous and robots. Okay, great. So, LIDAR ground, we're structured for that in 2025 setting up Epic 2026 and ridiculous 2027 and 2028. So again, we're we've been in this transition period. I've been talking about this for a long time, but hopefully we're starting to come out of that. But I think one of the things we still don't really know much about too is the more affordable vehicles this year, Tesla mentioned 60% production capacity growth in 2025 from these new affordable models. That again, doesn't mean that deliveries will be up even production would be up to that level. You've got to ramp things that takes time. You're never going to utilize your production capacity at 100% rate. So just keep those things in mind. But we're getting, you know, we're in the first half of 2025 now and we still don't really know what these vehicles are.
好的，我有点激动了，但觉得很遗憾，这样的问题居然被提了出来。好的，现在我们在哪儿？自主驾驶和机器人。很好。我们计划在2025年把LIDAR地面技术结构化，为2026年的重大突破以及2027和2028年的激进发展做好准备。我们一直处于这一过渡期，我谈论这个问题也有一段时间了，但希望现在我们开始走出这一阶段。不过我们仍然不太了解的是今年更经济实惠的汽车。特斯拉在2025年提到这些新型经济汽车的产能将增长60%。但这并不意味着交付量会达到这个水平，即便产量增加也需要时间进行调整。你永远无法将产能利用率提升到100%。所以要记住这些事情。但我们现在已经在2025年上半年了，但仍然不太清楚这些车辆具体是什么样的。
So potentially some excitement and storm. I think that's something that's helping out with the, you know, the stock here, getting that reiterated that those are still coming, which initially when the report came out, the summary section made it put that in question, at least for me reading that. But glad to see that reiterated both in water and here on the call. So stuff about FSD. I guess at this point, let's just I can talk a little bit about my experience.
所以可能会有一些令人兴奋和动荡的时刻。我认为，这在某种程度上帮助了股票，因为这些信息得到了重申，表明它们依然会到来。起初，当报告出来时，摘要部分让我对此产生了一些怀疑。但很高兴在报告中和这里的电话会议上都得到了重申。那么关于FSD（全自动驾驶）的事情。我想在这个时候，我可以稍微谈谈我的经验。
So I think, you know, if you're if you're reading about this on X, if you don't have a version 13 car, like I can, I can attest that it's a massive step forward. Version 13 for me has been incredible. It's been such a massive improvement over what was already a massive improvement with version first version 12.3.6 on hardware three. That was kind of the version to me where I was like, man, I'm a little bit blown away because the progress was probably the most significant step forward that I had seen in FSD over the, you know, two, three years that I had been using it. That was an excellent update.
所以，我认为，如果你正在X平台上阅读关于这个的内容，如果你没有一辆版本13的汽车，我可以保证，这是一大进步。对我来说，版本13非常出色，相较于已经很出色的版本12.3.6（运行在硬件3上的），它有了巨大的改进。对我来说，那是一个让人惊讶的版本，因为在我使用FSD功能的两三年里，这是我见过的最显著的一次进步。那次更新非常出色。
And then, oh, since then, you know, a little bit slower progress, but that was for hardware three. Now in December, I got a new model three hardware for vehicle. And obviously that comes along with version 13. So both going from hardware three, version 12 up to hardware four, version 13, that to me was pretty much an equivalent in terms of significance step forward in FSD capability. I've got, you know, a little bit less than a thousand miles on the car already. 90% plus of that probably on FSD.
自从那次之后，进展稍慢了些，但那是硬件三的事情。现在在12月，我得到了新版的Model 3硬件四的车辆，并且很显然，它搭载了版本13。所以从硬件三、版本12升级到硬件四、版本13，对我来说，这就像是全自驾能力方面一个非常重要的进步。我已经开了不到一千英里，其中可能有90%以上是使用了全自驾功能。
People will complain. There's always this like question of what is a safety critical intervention. Everyone's going to have a different interpretation of that. But if you take the truest interpretation of it, critical means that you would have crashed if this intervention did not occur. I do not believe that I've had a safety critical intervention yet. Now, there have been things that it definitely should not have done. Things that could potentially lead to something that would be a safety issue. But that's not necessarily a safety critical intervention, at least how I believe Tesla interprets it, or how I would necessarily interpret it in the strictest terms of the definition.
人们总是会抱怨。总是有关于什么是安全关键干预的讨论。每个人对此都会有不同的理解。但如果你按照最严格的解释，"关键" 就意味着，如果没有这种干预，你可能会发生碰撞。我认为我还没有遇到过安全关键干预。不过，确实发生过一些它不该做的事情，这些事情可能可能导致安全问题。但那不一定是安全关键干预，至少在我看来，不论是特斯拉对它的理解，还是我对这个定义最严格的理解。
So, you know, again, not to say there hasn't been disengagement. It's not to say that there has not been interventions. There have been just a handful of those. And again, maybe those had I not intervened in those situations that could have led to a safety issue, but in terms of just safety critical at that time, I don't think that I've had a single safety critical intervention. So I'm extremely excited about it.
所以，你知道，再次声明，不是说没有脱离接触，也不是说没有进行干预。有过一些这样的情况。或许如果我当时没有进行干预，这些情况可能会引发安全问题，但在当时确实至关重要的安全问题上，我不认为我进行过一次关键的安全干预。所以，我对此感到非常兴奋。
Not only that, it's also just so much more human-like. It's able to be very aggressive now, which I'm in Chicago, in the Chicago area. You kind of need to drive aggressively to both not incite road rage in people and also just to get where you need to be. Being able to be aggressive is important. And it's doing a much better job at that. Extremely smooth, confident, comfortable. It's awesome. It's so awesome. So if you haven't had a chance to try version 13 yet, I don't know, go test drive a car. I think they have version 13 on the vehicles and stores. So it's great. I've been extremely happy with the progress.
不仅如此，它现在也更加人性化了。它现在还能够非常激进地驾驶。我在芝加哥地区，你需要激进地驾驶，才能既不激怒路上的司机，也能顺利到达目的地。能够激进驾驶非常重要。而且它在这方面的表现已经好了很多，非常平稳、自信、舒适。太棒了，实在太棒了。所以，如果你还没有机会试用版本13，我建议去试驾一下车辆。我想他们的车辆和店里都有版本13。这很不错，我对它的进步感到非常满意。
So you think about that step forward from hardware three to hardware four. You think about version 12 to version 13. Now think about, all right, hardware four to hardware five. I assume cybercab will probably have hardware five. And think about, you know, version 14. Aschak mentioned, all of the different sort of scaling, I don't know, levers is not the right word for it, but scaling verticals that they're, you know, each of these different categories of things that they can improve on. They still have a long path to continue to improve on. And, you know, when you've got multiple of these different scaling factors and you're scaling on all of them and you're doing it all very quickly.
你考虑一下从硬件三升级到硬件四这个过程，再想到从版本12到版本13。现在再想想从硬件四到硬件五。我想，Cybercab可能会配备硬件五。然后想想版本14。Aschak提到的各种不同的扩展类型，我不知道“杠杆”是否是正确的词，但他们在每个不同的领域都有可以改进的地方。他们还有很长的路要继续优化。当你在这些不同的扩展因素中进行快速全面扩展时，你会感受到这一点。
There's a lot of reason to continue to expect progress, like the progress that we saw in 2024, which when we look back at 2024, if you just look at the earnings, if you just look at the deliveries, if you just look at anything in the earnings report, like this year was trash. Right. Like relative to 2022, 2023, you would say that, you know, this was a bad year for Tesla, but that's looking at the wrong stuff because 2024 was an excellent year for Tesla because FSD, according to Tesla, probably advanced 100 times, maybe 1000 times from where it began the year.
我们有很多理由继续期待进步，就像我们在2024年看到的进步一样。如果回顾2024年，只是看收入、交付情况或者财报中的任何内容，可能会觉得今年表现平平。对比2022和2023年，很多人可能会认为2024年对特斯拉来说是糟糕的一年，但这其实是看错了重点。实际上，2024年对于特斯拉来说是非常出色的一年，因为根据特斯拉的说法，全自动驾驶（FSD）技术在这一年的进步相当于提升了100倍，甚至可能达到1000倍。
And if that happens again in 2025, then I think it's done. Right. I think it's solved. I think that gets Tesla to a level where this is a viable product, unsupervised roeotaxi and kind of what we've been talking about for the last, you know, five, 10 years is reality. And that's going to happen. It's going to happen at some point. So we're getting close and it's extremely exciting. I think that's part of, you know, why why the market has a high multiple on Tesla, obviously, in addition to just like sentiment and everything that's going on from like a regulatory perspective around, hopefully like a national framework for FSD. All these things I think are are helpful. Just in terms of like the stock price reaction the last few months, but.
如果这种情况在2025年再次发生，那么我认为这件事就完成了，对吧。我认为问题解决了。我觉得这会让特斯拉达到一个水平，使得无人监管的自动驾驶出租车成为一种可行的产品，这也正是我们过去五到十年一直在谈论的事情变成了现实。这一定会发生的，只是时间问题。我们正接近这个目标，这非常令人兴奋。我认为这也是为什么市场对特斯拉估值很高的部分原因，不仅仅是因为市场情绪，还有来自监管方面的一切，尤其是关于制定全国性的全自动驾驶框架的希望。所有这些因素都有助于提升特斯拉的股价，这点在过去几个月的股价反应中也得到了体现，不过……
Underlying the progress is what's most important. And again, somewhat surprisingly, the market seeming to be aware of that to an extent. So exciting. All right. So that's my car. Yeah. Otherwise the Model 3 has been great. Just the actual vehicle itself, you know, for me, it's mostly about FSD being able to follow the progress on that. That's the most important thing for me, but just that aside, the car has been a very nice upgrade to. I'm very happy with it. Okay.
进展背后的原因才是最重要的。有点让人惊讶的是，市场似乎在某种程度上意识到了这一点。这真是让人兴奋。说到我的车，总体来说，Model 3表现很好。对我来说，主要关注的是全自动驾驶（FSD）的进展，对我来说这是最重要的。但撇开这些，车本身也确实是一个不错的升级。我对此非常满意。
So that's talks about utility. I may have said this before, but I think it was a good point for Elon to mention, you know, moving both people and cargo. I think people think of like, Oh, we're able to actually it's only going to be valuable during rush hour. So you really maybe you get like, I don't know, one and a half or two times utility in like a more bearish type of a situation. I think people just like really bad at understanding that when you have such a technological disruption or innovation, like what we would be seeing here, where you're literally just taking out the majority of the cost of transportation, which is, you know, a couple of fold. It's fuel, which electric vehicles dramatically reduce.
这段话讨论了实用性。我可能以前说过这一点，但我认为埃隆提到这一点很重要，也就是在人和货物运输上的双重用途。我想人们可能会觉得这项技术只有在高峰时段才有价值，所以在一种比较保守的情况下，你可能会有类似于一到两倍的使用率。我觉得人们常常不太擅长理解当你遇到这样的技术突破或创新时会发生什么。在这里，我们实际上是大幅降低运输成本，这其中包括几个方面，如燃料，而电动车可以显著减少这部分成本。
And then it's, you know, the actual person operating the vehicle, whether that's your own time or paying a driver. Those are the most two most significant costs by far. And Tesla's working on reducing any of the other costs as well, but those are the two most significant. When you remove or dramatically reduce those things, you just you completely create a new market that never existed before because things that people wouldn't have done before because they would have done before. And so they were too expensive. You all of a sudden you start doing and people have a really bad time understanding that and imagining what solutions people will come up with.
这段话可以翻译为中文如下：
然后，就是由实际负责驾驶车辆的人来承担，无论是你自己花费时间驾驶还是付费雇用司机。这两者是迄今为止最显著的成本。特斯拉正在努力降低其他任何成本，但这两项是最为重要的。当你去掉或大幅降低这些成本时，你实际上创造了一个之前不存在的新市场，因为有些事情以前人们不会去做，因为太贵了。而现在，这些事情突然间就变得可行了。人们很难理解这一点，也很难想象将会出现哪些解决方案。
But I think that's one of the things that you want is fantastic with is he very innately understands that and just builds in that direction. And it's kind of like SpaceX, right? Like, you know, maybe day one of trying to build a reusable rocket. And Elon wasn't really thinking about Starlink, but he realized that maybe he was, I don't know, but if he wasn't, at some point along the way, you realize, oh, now that I have this lower launch cost, I can instead put thousands of satellites up and make a viable satellite internet at low Earth orbit for the entire world to use. And now it's, you know, this multi multi billion dollar product line that maybe people didn't even think about in the early days of SpaceX.
但我认为，你想要的其中一个很棒的特点就是他很自然地理解这一点，并朝着这个方向发展。这有点像SpaceX，对吧？也许在最初开始建造可重复使用火箭时，Elon并没有想到Starlink，但他后来意识到——也许他一开始就想到了，我不知道——不过如果他没有，就在某个时刻，他意识到，哦，现在我降低了发射成本，我可以发射成千上万的卫星，在近地轨道上建立一个覆盖全球的可行卫星互联网。如今，这已经成为一个价值数百亿美元的产品线，可能在SpaceX创立初期，人们都没有想到这样的发展。
So very analogous to that. And some of the, you know, like, that's a big reason why it's not a comp to like Uber or Lyft. It's just, this is a completely different product, completely different business, completely different market. They're just so different. Very ranting today. I think I missed this a little bit. Okay. Bunch of utility, reality of autonomy is upon us. Don't know of a past precedent of this biggest value creation ever. We'll get better over time. I was a little bit surprised on the China stuff. Elon basically saying that they don't have a way to train from vehicles in China at the moment, which I don't know if that had been disclosed or if I had realized that was the case before.
非常类似于这个。因此，这也是为什么它不能被与像Uber或Lyft这样的公司相提并论的一个重要原因。这完全是一个不同的产品，不同的业务，不同的市场。它们之间的区别非常大。今天有些啰嗦，我想我有点错过了这个话题。关于自动化的实用性，现实正在逐渐到来。我不知道过去是否有这种巨大的价值创造的先例。随着时间的推移，我们会做得更好。我对中国的情况有点惊讶。Elon基本上说他们目前无法通过中国的车辆进行训练，我不知道这个情况之前是否被披露过，或者我是否意识到这是事实。
And it does sound a little bit challenging. Well, I guess two things. It sounds a little bit challenging to be able to just train on videos that are on, you know, just randomly on the internet. And then the second consideration would be that, and this is more of a red flag, if Tesla can just train off random videos that are on the internet, then presumably other people could get to the point where they could also just train off random videos that are on the internet. And maybe it's only applicable to Tesla because they do have so much robust training data from their fleet across other regions. But if that's not as major of a factor, then it would suggest that the lead generated by FSD could potentially be a little bit smaller.
这听起来有点挑战。我想有两个方面。首先，只用互联网上随机的视频进行训练似乎有些困难。其次，这一点更值得警惕，如果特斯拉可以利用互联网上的随机视频进行训练，那么其他人可能也能够做到这一点。也许这对特斯拉来说是有效的，因为他们在其他地区的车队提供了非常充足的训练数据。但是如果这并不是一个主要因素，那么这可能意味着特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）的领先优势可能会小一些。
If someone can just go out and build another cluster, 50,000 H100s and train off random videos on the internet, I mean, including FSD, there's a lot of those now these days. Again, I don't think that that's really the case, but it's something worth considering and also would have been another good question for an analyst to ask about instead of LIDAR. All right, more excitement about 2027, 2028. Elon said a couple of times working to grow annual volumes, battery pack constraint. He mentioned that they continue to exist in this like decision trade off situation where should battery packs go to energy or should they go to automotive. I think that's being like a little bit generous to the automotive business. That's pretty clear this year that, you know, if you look at the average selling prices and things like that and volume decline over year over year, like there was definitely demand issues throughout the year this year. Now, that doesn't mean that there's not also supply constraints and those constraints affect the business too. And when you think about like forward looking after this launch of this Model Y, especially with these new, more affordable vehicles coming online, you can very quickly get back in your situation where you are battery constrained instead of demand constrained.
如果有人可以自己打造一个由五万个H100组成的集群，并通过互联网上的随机视频进行训练，我的意思是，包括FSD（完全自动驾驶），如今这样的内容很多。我并不认为这真的是事实，但这是值得考虑的事情，也应该成为分析师提问的一个不错的方向，而不是把重点放在激光雷达上。好的，对于2027年、2028年的更多期待。埃隆几次提到正在努力增加年产量，面临电池组限制的问题。他提到，他们仍然面临这样的决策难题：电池组应该用于能源领域，还是用于汽车领域。我觉得这对汽车业务来说是比较宽容的。今年很明显，如果你看平均销售价格等指标以及同比的销量下降，今年全年确实存在需求问题。当然，这并不意味着没有供应限制，供应限制也对业务造成影响。当你考虑到未来，尤其是在推出Model Y之后，这些更实惠的车型上线后，你可能会很快再次面临电池限制，而不是需求限制的问题。
These things always have been a flow. That's why people shouldn't be so critical whenever demand constraints are raised. I know that was a major sort of like hurdle when this sort of stuff started popping up as people kind of coming into the realization that that is a possibility for Tesla. And again, that's okay. You know, these products are the most popular products in the world. Model Y, it's the best selling vehicle in the world. At some point, you get to the point where the product plateaus and that's fine as long as that's not the growth lever for the company, for the rest of its existence, which is very clearly not the case for Tesla.
这些事情一直在变化。这就是为什么当需求限制被提出来时，人们不应该过于苛刻。我知道当这一切刚开始出现时，人们意识到特斯拉可能会面临这种情况，这算是个主要的障碍。不过，这没关系。要知道，这些产品是世界上最受欢迎的。比如说，Model Y 是全球最畅销的车型。到了某个时候，产品的销售会达到顶峰，这是正常的。只要这不是公司在未来发展的唯一推动力，那就没问题。而对于特斯拉来说，很显然不是这种情况。
So eventually each product is going to hit that plateau. That plateau may last for a while. The next wave of growth may not be there yet, but that's okay as long as the company continues to execute, continues to lead, which I've always said, most important for me as Tesla's leading in electric vehicles. And leading in autonomy, which I always continue to believe is the case. So in that situation, it's just kind of a good reminder of that. And again, things change quickly. So yes, I think there are domain constraints at periods of time this year. Yes, I also think being battery pack constrained can still make sense in that context.
最终，每款产品都会达到一个平台期。这个平台期可能会持续一段时间。或许下一波增长还未到来，但只要公司继续执行策略、继续保持领先地位，那也没问题。我一直认为，特斯拉在电动车和自动驾驶领域保持领先对我来说是最重要的。在这种情况下，这只是一个很好的提醒。同时，事情也会快速变化。所以，是的，我认为今年在某些时期会有领域限制。是的，我也认为在这种情况下，受电池组限制仍然是有意义的。
Vehicle safety report. So I talked a little bit about that. There was the chart in the earnings report. So I won't recap that again here. But again, check that video out if you didn't have a chance to do that yet.
车辆安全报告。我稍微讲了一下。在收益报告中有一张图表，所以我这里就不再重复了。但如果你还没有看过那个视频，建议你去看看。
Version 14, another step forward. So ashek talked about some of the reasons that version 14 would be another step forward. Training for optimists. So a lot of really good information on optimists, but you know, obviously the use cases for humanoid robots are much more diverse than a vehicle. So training capacity, training capability probably needs to be significantly higher. Maybe there's a thousand more times use cases who knows how accurate Elon's just talking orders of magnitude here.
版本14，再向前迈出一步。Ashek 讨论了一些让版本14成为又一个进步的原因。这是为乐观者而准备的训练。有很多关于乐观者的良好信息，但显然，人形机器人的使用场景要比车辆多得多。因此，训练容量和训练能力可能需要显著提高。也许使用场景会多出一千倍，谁知道呢，Elon只是在探讨数量级上的变化。
But you probably don't need to just scale training a thousand times, maybe with improvements, both in terms of how training is done. And certainly in terms of training costs, maybe it's, you know, 10 times more training capability that's needed in terms of like CAPEX or something. Over time. Long term optimist potential be north of 10 trillion in revenue.
你可能不需要将训练规模扩大一千倍，也许通过改进训练方式和降低训练成本，可以实现更高的效率。也许只需要大约十倍的训练能力，比如在资本支出（CAPEX）方面投入更多。长远来看，乐观的预测可能达到超过十万亿美元的收入。
So Elon said, you know, this year they hope to be able to produce at a rate of a thousand per month. Next year, maybe 10,000 per month, maybe version three a year or two after that or something. More like a hundred thousand a month. So looking for a significant ramp here, because the battery capacity for the optimist robots will be smaller than on a per vehicle basis. It makes a faster ramp, something that is potentially more achievable.
所以，Elon 说，今年他们希望能达到每月生产一千台的速度。明年可能达到每月一万台，也许一两年后会有第三个版本，大约每月十万台。这样看来，他们计划大幅增加生产，因为乐观者机器人的电池容量比单车电池要小。这使得更快的增产成为可能和更加可行。
The counter arguments of that is that Elon did say that a lot of this technology and optimist or maybe even all the technology that's used in optimist is something that Tesla had to design. There was no part available that they could buy at any price. And when you're in a situation like that, as Elon has said many times production is the hardest part.
对此的反驳是，埃隆曾多次表示，许多用于乐观者机器人（Optimus）的技术，甚至可能所有技术，都是特斯拉必须自行设计的。在这种情况下，没有任何现成的零部件可以购买。正如埃隆多次提到的，当面临这样的情况时，生产是最困难的部分。
So I think he's excited about the possibility of it. But when you're talking about a complex product like this, especially a new product that's in the early stages of iteration. And all of those parts for that product are unique and something that no one has really developed or supplied before.
我觉得他对这个可能性感到很兴奋。但当你谈论像这样的复杂产品时，尤其是一个处于早期迭代阶段的新产品。而且该产品的所有零件都是独一无二的，以前没有人真正开发或供应过这样的东西。
Yeah, there's a lot of risk to a production ramp from a situation like that. So Tesla's not any stranger to that. Nothing there that would be surprising, but just something to keep in mind. Although on one hand you've got the excitement of it, keep that in the back of your head as well.
是的，这种情况下增加产量会有很多风险。不过，特斯拉对此非常有经验。这其中没有什么令人意外的，但还是需要注意。尽管一方面让人感到兴奋，另一方面你也需要心里有个准备。
Future's going to be incredibly different than the past. That's for sure. Yeah, I mean, man, versus two years ago, where society is at right now is, I mean, it's night and day already for the people that are paying attention to what's going on. So it's crazy. The rate of accelerating technological innovations in progress here is nuts.
未来将与过去截然不同。这是肯定的。是的，我的意思是，相较于两年前，现在的社会已经有了天翻地覆的变化，特别是对那些关注当前发生事情的人来说。这真是太疯狂了。技术创新进步的速度快得让人难以置信。
So I think we're just going to continue to see that. I mean, it's every week, right? We get some pretty major update in artificial intelligence. And there's insane potential for that to benefit other areas of technology too. All right, I bolded this, but obviously everyone, I'm sure heard that. So launching as a paid service in June, obviously the most specific precise timeline that has been given definitely sounds like California will be later. No surprise on that given probably a higher regulatory burden.
所以我觉得我们将继续看到这种趋势。我是说，几乎每周我们都会在人工智能领域看到一些重大更新。它在其他技术领域也有巨大的潜力。好的，我加粗了这些内容，但显然每个人都已经听说过了。将在六月作为付费服务推出，显然这是迄今为止给出的最具体的时间线，听起来加州可能会稍晚推出。考虑到加州更高的监管负担，这并不令人意外。
But we'll see June 2025. It's, you know, it's very close. Who knows if that will happen on time, but it's nice that Tesla's confident enough to state a date and it's, you know, mid 2025 is probably, I don't know, maybe a little bit earlier than that. People would have expected. So definitely exciting to see that on there as well.
但我们将拭目以待2025年6月的到来。毕竟，这个日子很近了。谁也不知道是否能如期实现，不过特斯拉敢于宣布这个日期还是很不错的，这说明他们很有信心。而且，2025年年中这时间，可能比人们预期的还要稍早一些。这无疑是一件令人兴奋的事情。
Operating if you didn't see the videos yesterday yesterday on X, Tesla's already doing this at their factories. So pretty cool to see that. I also talked, I also liked and noticed this in the video that, you know, they somehow within the software, Tesla is giving specific instructions on where these vehicles need to be in, you know, sort of a parking lot situation.
如果你昨天没有在 X 上看到这些视频，特斯拉已经在他们的工厂中实施了这一操作。所以看到这样的情况真是很酷。我还在视频中注意到并喜欢这样一点，就是特斯拉在软件中给这些车辆提供了具体的指示，告诉它们在类似停车场的情况下应该停在哪里。
Right now with FSD, it's kind of just like, yeah, you go to the general, if you go to the general destination and then you're there and, you know, it doesn't necessarily know exactly where to go or what to do with that point. And I think that's, you know, to come shortly, but obviously, Tesla utilizing some other addition to the software to manage those things with their fleet on the line.
目前，使用全自动驾驶（FSD）有点像这样：你输入一个大致的目的地，然后你就到了那里。不过，它可能不太清楚具体要去哪个位置或者到达后该怎么做。我认为这些问题很快会得到解决，但显然，特斯拉正在利用其他软件功能来管理他们车队中的这些问题。
There's also the camera calibration stuff. Tesla's doing that throughout the manufacturing line now, they said. So they can just, once they're at the end of the production line, they can just drive off without having to worry about the camera calibration. I'm sure there's still some calibration that's happening, at least I would guess, but it's not enough to not make it work for that use case. So that's cool.
特斯拉现在在整个生产线上进行摄像头校准。他们表示，这样一来，当汽车从生产线下来时，就可以直接开走，而不必担心摄像头的校准问题。我相信一定还有一些校准在进行，至少我猜是这样，但这些不足以影响使用。所以这很不错。
All right, so yeah, just like starting slow, obviously makes sense. Internal plan for 10,000 optimists this year. Probably won't achieve that, but probably several thousand doing useful things by the end of the year. Again, much sooner than I think people would have guessed, certainly 12 months ago. Perhaps making a hundred million of these things a year in the future, which would mean that, you know, there would be a billion of these robots out there at some point.
好的，所以没错，一开始慢慢来显然是有道理的。今年内部计划达到1万个乐观目标。虽然可能达不到这个数字，但到年底可能会有几千个在做有用的事情。这比人们的预期要快得多，尤其是12个月前。将来可能每年制造一亿个这样的东西，这意味着，迟早会有十亿个这样的机器人在运行。
Entirely new supply chain, we talked about that. Optimists being the majority of the value of the company. I don't think that's a new comment. Back to Earth, some of the current stuff. Energy, if you follow the AI stuff, I mean, maybe deep-seak changes us a little bit, probably not overall. Power is in demand. Power and energy, there's a lot of discussion on what needs to be done. I think the All in Podcast was talking about this the other day. Just the power and energy needs, especially in the United States, to ramp those up, to be able to stay competitive on the planet.
全新的供应链，我们之前谈过。乐观主义者认为公司的大部分价值在于此。我认为这不是一个新观点。回到现实来说，当前的一些情况。能源问题，如果你关注AI方面的内容，可能深海科技会对我们产生一些影响，但总体而言可能不会。电力是有需求的。关于电力和能源，大家讨论很多，尤其是在美国，需要提升这些方面以在全球保持竞争力。我想“All in Podcast”前几天也在谈论这个话题。
Just because of the demand for power and energy with data centers related to AI is going to be so significant. Obviously, the return on having those capabilities should be very high and also of national security importance. The energy market is probably one to be pretty bullish on. Obviously, through Tesla energy can be a significant contributor to the utility of that market. I'm fully in agreement with them on this. We had not heard this yet, but I also bolded this building a third mega factory.
仅仅因为与人工智能相关的数据中心对电力和能源的需求将非常巨大。显然，拥有这些能力的回报应该非常高，而且对国家安全也非常重要。能源市场可能是一个非常值得看好的领域。显然，通过特斯拉能源，特斯拉可以在这一市场中做出重要贡献。在这一点上，我完全同意他们的看法。我们之前没有听说过这一点，但我还特别强调了这一点，那就是他们正在建设第三座超级工厂。
That's extremely exciting as well. I think that was where Elon mentioned that one of the things they need to consider is where the batteries are allocated between energy and automotive. It sounds like that's a little bit potential constraint when it comes to this third mega factory. I've seen a lot of people question like, hey, you keep saying energy demand is crazy. Why don't you just build like five of these? That's obviously the reason is because there's not necessarily battery capacity to be able to do that.
这也非常令人激动。我记得埃隆提到，他们需要考虑电池在能源和汽车之间的分配问题。这似乎是第三个超级工厂可能面临的一个限制因素。我看到很多人质疑说，你们一直在说能源需求很大，为什么不多建五个这样的工厂呢？显然，原因在于电池的生产能力可能不足以支持这么多工厂。
I think people have forgotten about battery constraints in the last year just because there's been a little bit software EV market. But it's still a challenge and still something that needs to be grown improved over time. Demand for total gigawatt hours will grow in a very big way over time. A pivotal year for Tesla, perhaps the most significant year in Tesla's history. Vibobs opening comments here. A lot of this we discussed in the earnings report. Episode earlier. He did mention that they probably are going to see a decline in production. Probably, obviously deliveries and margins as they transition to the new Model Y here, which no surprise, like that almost goes without saying, but just an important reminder.
我觉得在过去一年里，人们似乎忘记了电池的限制，因为软件方面的进展让电动汽车市场稍微有些活跃。但电池问题依然存在，仍需要随着时间的推移不断改进。对总千兆瓦时的需求会有很大的增长。今年对于特斯拉来说是关键一年，可能是其历史上最重要的一年。Vibob在这里的致辞中提到了很多问题，我们之前在财报发布时讨论过。他确实提到，可能会看到产量下降，交付和利润率显然也会下降，因为他们正在转型到新的Model Y。这几乎是显而易见的，但仍需特别提醒。
Marked to market on Bitcoin. We talked about that, but that'll happen in all future quarters. I need to look at the actual mechanics of that, but something that benefited Tesla quite a bit this quarter in terms of the bottom line numbers. CapEx flat year over year. Wouldn't be surprised to see that increase, but looks like for now flat. So California and perhaps many other cities for unsupervised FSD. So I think contextually different comments here on licensing FSD this time around. Elon had mentioned before that there was some discussions. It sounds like those discussions are either greater in number or more significant or serious now than maybe at that time when it was previously discussed.
将比特币按市值计价。我们讨论过这个问题，但这将在未来的每个季度发生。我需要查看这一过程的实际操作，但这确实在这个季度对特斯拉的净利润数字有所帮助。资本开支同比持平。我不会惊讶于看到这有所增加，但目前看来是保持不变。关于加州以及可能许多其他城市允许无人监督的完全自动驾驶（FSD）。因此，我认为这次在FSD许可方面的评论在背景上有所不同。埃隆之前提到过有一些讨论，现在看来这些讨论要么数量增加了，要么变得更加重要或认真了，比之前讨论时的情况更有深度。
So I think they're getting a lot of interest here, and I think that's probably related to version 13. Again, this is when you drive it, it just feels different now. It just feels different. It feels confident. It feels smooth. Yeah, maybe there's some issues sometimes, but it's, you know, I think for someone that was skeptical before being in it now, it becomes much more difficult to be skeptical. So I think that's probably a factor in the comments that we're hearing here from Elon on licensing. Which is great. Having your competitors reach out to you about trying to use your software. That's great. Strong position to be in.
我认为他们在这里引起了很多关注，这可能与第13版有关。当你使用它时，它感觉就是不一样，更加自信和平稳。是的，可能有时候会有一些问题，但我认为对于之前持怀疑态度的人来说，现在体验后要继续怀疑就困难多了。这可能也是我们从埃隆关于授权方面的言论中听到这些评论的一个原因。这很棒，竞争对手主动联系你，希望使用你的软件，这是一种强而有力的市场地位。
As Elon said, I don't probably put a ton of weight in the value of this at the moment because I think any of these OEMs, it's going to take them many years to sort of integrate. And by then, you know, the market's reaction to the value of this should be quite significant already at that point. So I think it's a positive sign in terms of like the actual earnings to the business. Not sure it's incredibly important. Certainly not in the year term, near term, just because of the time that it would take to implement those things for relatively slow moving OEMs. Optimists not design locked. So also a good hedge on some of the production milestones and stuff that were mentioned. Okay, we talked more about that.
正如Elon所说，我目前可能不会对这个价值给予太大的重视，因为我认为这些原始设备制造商（OEMs）需要花费很多年时间来进行整合。而到那时，市场对这个价值的反应应该已经非常显著。所以我认为，从实际收益来看，这对业务是个积极信号。但我不确定这是否非常重要，特别是在短期内，因为相对于动作缓慢的OEMs来说，实施这些东西需要时间。乐观者没有设计锁定，因此也是一些生产里程碑和相关事项的良好对冲策略。我们可以再详细讨论这个问题。
Yes, so the question on optimist pricing. Pricing is just a function of supply and demand generally unless there's some other factor at play, but cost is the more important question. Elon saying in a million a year, he thinks it would cost less than 20k, probably less, probably something like half the cost of a model Y just based on basically the build of materials. So. Makes sense there. Semi. So kind of what they said in the earnings report ramping next year, huge demand, especially with autonomy. Again, something that I think people kind of forget about when they think about FSD from times of time, but that's a massive market. Elon saying, you know, if we're honest, we probably are going to have to upgrade hardware three. He didn't get into the specific costs. He did say just, you know, didn't say, but he did specify the computer for hardware three. If that's the case, that should be, I don't know, not the most difficult upgrade.
好的，这段文字可以翻译成中文如下：
是的，关于乐观的定价问题。定价通常只是供需关系的一个函数，除非有其他因素在起作用，但成本才是更重要的问题。埃隆表示，未来可能一年生产一百万辆车，他认为成本会低于2万美元，可能更低，大概是Model Y成本的一半，这主要是基于材料的构成。所以，这在逻辑上说得通。另外是关于半挂卡车。他们在财报中提到，计划明年开始扩大生产规模，需求很大，特别是在自动驾驶方面。再一次强调，当人们考虑全自动驾驶（FSD）时，其实容易忽略这个庞大的市场。埃隆说，坦诚地讲，我们可能必须升级第三代硬件。他没有具体谈论费用，只是指出第三代硬件所用的计算机。如果真是这样，那这应该不会是一个很困难的升级。
I know Tesla has upgraded computers on previous cars. I want to say it was, I don't know, like a $1,500 cost item. And obviously, Tesla is saying here that they would be paying for those costs, but if they're not getting into the cameras and things like that, then hopefully it's a relatively easy change, but you know, who knows it. It does sound like it would be, you know, as they say, you're paying full and difficult, but they would get it done. Now, now that Elon has said this, there's obviously going to be a lot of customer pressure to do this, especially as version 13 and hardware four vehicles performance is super seating hardware three. I've kind of had the thought even though I did upgrade my car because I just wanted to be current with the progress.
我知道特斯拉在之前的车型上升级过电脑。我记得好像费用大概是1500美元。显然，这次特斯拉表示他们会承担这些费用。但如果不涉及摄像头等部件，那希望这个升级会相对简单些，不过谁知道呢。听起来可能会比较复杂，尽管如此，他们会完成这项工作。现在，既然埃隆已经这样说了，显然会有很多顾客要求落实这件事，尤其是因为版本13和硬件4的性能超过了硬件3。我个人有这样的想法，即便我已经升级了我的车，只是因为我想跟上最新进展。
Again, I think deep-seek a good example here. Over time, the capability of what you can do with limited hardware increases as people figure out how to optimize things. So I think kind of like giving up on hardware three may have been a little bit premature, but it does sound like, you know, Tesla's at the point where, you know, they think maybe they're going to have to do this anyway. Maybe these optimizations aren't going to come or aren't going to come quickly enough. So, you know, maybe they feel it's the right move to upgrade those customers. I tend to, you know, I guess agree with that.
再一次，我认为“深度优化”是一个很好的例子。随着时间的推移，人们不断学习如何优化，从而提升有限硬件的能力。因此，我觉得放弃硬件三可能有些操之过急。不过听起来，特斯拉可能觉得无论如何都得这么做。也许这些优化方案迟迟无法实现，或者速度不够快。因此，他们可能认为为顾客升级硬件是正确的选择。我倾向于同意这种观点。
I think it really just depends on how long Tesla thinks it would take to kind of get to that level. If they think it's going to be many years, then yeah, definitely. I think go ahead with the upgrade. If they think it's going to be six months, then obviously it doesn't make a lot of sense. So I would guess they think it's more in the latter camp, if at all. So I'm not giving up on solar roof. That's good to hear. We talked a little bit about that earlier today. So good to see that. Not giving up. But also sort of tempering expectations, premium product, et cetera. I think those expectations are pretty low though. So maybe not even tempering them.
我认为这真的取决于特斯拉认为需要多长时间才能达到那个水平。如果他们认为要很多年，那当然，去升级吧。如果他们觉得只需要六个月，那显然就不太有意义了。所以我猜他们认为更可能是后者，若有任何可能。我并没有放弃太阳能屋顶。这是个好消息。我们今天早些时候谈到了一些相关内容，很高兴看到他们没有放弃。不过也要适当调整预期，这是个高端产品等等。我认为这些期望其实已经挺低的，所以也许甚至不需要调整。
So version 14, just talking about again, still room to grow the scaling of the model size, the context length, the memory, adding audio inputs, increased data from the fleet from corner cases, just all these different facets that they can continue to improve on, distill into an even better model with version 14. And then eventually, right, we'll get hardware five, AI five, continued to upgrade the hardware as well. All right, in all those questions.
第14版仍有提升的空间，比如模型规模的扩展、上下文长度、内存增加、增加音频输入，以及从特殊情况下收集更多的数据。这些都是可以持续改进的各个方面，通过这些改进可以进一步优化第14版模型。最终，我们还会得到硬件第五代和AI第五代，这些硬件也会不断升级。好吧，这就是所有的问题所在。
Yeah, I don't think anything to note worthy in here. Interesting to get a little bit more context on the regulatory burdens, both in Europe. We talked a little bit other about China as well. Maybe that's Empress a little bit of optimism around potential FSD. I feel like we see every quarter. There's some rumor on X that FSD is going to be released this quarter in China. That's not what it sounds like here from just kind of like the tone or the context that Elon gave here, but who knows, he did also say unsupervised everywhere kind of next year. So tough to really know.
好的，我认为这里没有什么值得特别注意的地方。对于欧洲的监管负担，听到多一点背景信息还是挺有趣的。我们也稍微讨论了一下中国。也许这让人对未来的全自动驾驶有一点乐观。我感到每个季度都有传闻说全自动驾驶将在这个季度在中国推出。但从Elon的语气和他给出的背景信息来看，似乎并不是这样。不过，他确实提到明年可能在所有地方实现无人监督的驾驶。所以很难确切知道。
Let our question our favorite US manufacturing. Yeah, obviously, you'll end up in support of that. I like to be your question, just like trying to understand. All right, unsupervised in Austin in June. Does that mean if you have a Tesla in June in Austin that it can also be unsupervised? And I think the answer was no, it would just be Tesla's fleet for now. Just like how Tesla on, you know, at the factory has something that is not in the public version of FSD to be able to handle a lot of the data. To be able to handle like where the vehicle is supposed to go and park for, you know, for distribution. Just like they have a little little tweaks like that.
让我们来质疑一下我们最喜欢的美国制造业。显然，最终你会支持这点。我想成为你的问题，就像试图理解一样。好的，在六月的奥斯汀是无人监管的。这是否意味着如果你在六月在奥斯汀拥有一辆特斯拉，它也可以无人监管呢？我认为答案是否定的，目前只会是特斯拉的车队。就像特斯拉在工厂里有一些不在公众版FSD中的功能一样，以便处理大量数据，处理车辆应该去哪里和在哪停放以便分配。就像他们在这些方面有一些小小的调整一样。
I would suspect that they also have things like that happening in this internal fleet when this testing time does begin. So I think that's why they wouldn't necessarily just like let other people use it unsupervised right right away. But it does sound like they're aware that we're in this kind of weird period where, as they said, people will just disengage FSD to be able to look at the vehicle. And then there's a lot of FSD to be able to look away from straightforward for a minute or a few seconds to be able to check a phone or whatever. Obviously dangerous, so not a good situation to be in. But kind of like learn to behavior from getting yelled at by the camera. So it's a tricky situation.
我猜测，当测试开始时，他们的内部车队也会遇到类似的情况。因此，我认为这就是他们不愿意马上让别人不受监督地使用它的原因。但听起来他们意识到我们正处于一个有些奇怪的时期，正如他们所说，人们会为了看看车辆而暂停全自动驾驶功能(FSD)。然后在人们想查看手机或者其他事情时，也会有一段时间内无人关注车辆显然很危险，所以这不是个好情况。但这可能是由于被摄像头警告后形成的一种习惯。这是一个棘手的情况。
You know, there's probably not any great solution during this interim period other than just to like get out of it as fast as possible. So I think that sort of, you know, getting out of it as fast as possible is kind of the answer to Peter's question. So I do think that it's something that, you know, Tesla will try to do. But obviously they want a way to be able to, you know, test this. Their version of what they think the future is going to be like that seems to be the priority versus trying to take away the nags or something sooner.
你知道，在这个过渡期间，可能没有什么完美的解决方案，只能尽快摆脱这种状况。所以，我认为尽快解决这个问题就是对彼得问题的答案。我相信这也是特斯拉努力想要做到的。当然，他们希望能够测试自己对未来的设想，这个优先级似乎高于更快地去掉一些让人烦扰的小细节。
We've talked about this before, but kind of like level four systems. I don't think Tesla cares about it all, which I think part of Pierre's question was, you know, can it just let me know like five seconds before I need to actually pay attention. It's just Tesla's not going to spend the engineering resources when they feel like they're so close to a level five system. They're just not going to spend the engineering resources to try to like make the current solution work for something like that. When in their view in maybe three or six months, it's the capabilities are beyond having to be able to monitor anyway.
我们之前讨论过这个问题，就像四级系统一样。我认为特斯拉根本不在意这一点。我觉得这是Pierre问题的一部分，他是想知道能不能在我需要注意之前五秒钟提醒我。但特斯拉不会花费工程资源在这种事情上，因为他们觉得离实现五级系统已经很近了。他们不会投入工程资源去改进现有方案，因为在他们看来，可能三到六个月后，系统的能力就超出了需要进行监控的范围。
So they're just not going to spend any time trying to optimize for that. But hopefully once they're able to do it, you know, very quickly follow on with letting personal ownership be unsupervised as well. All right. I think that's everything for the most part. As I said, interesting call. Good call. I think I think it did a good job of just, you know, level setting or. We invigorating or or whatever word you want to use, refocusing the attention on this transition period that Tesla is in and all of the exciting growth opportunities that. We seem to be a little bit on the doorstep of both with new models coming in the next few months, hopefully on supervised FSD in a limited way in the next few months. We're definitely in an exciting time, even though the financials, you know, are much less exciting in this current quarter. Still a lot to be excited about and product updates, you know, new model.
所以，他们并不会花时间去优化这一点。不过，希望一旦他们能够做到，很快就能让个人拥有权也变得不需要监管。好的，我觉得大致上就是这些了。就像我之前说的，这是一个有趣的谈话，做得不错。我认为它很好地帮助我们重新认识或重新激发或者用你喜欢的词，重新聚焦于特斯拉正处于的这个过渡期以及所有令人激动的发展机会。我们似乎正站在新车款在未来几个月会推出的门槛上，希望在接下来的几个月里，无人监管的全自动驾驶可以在有限的情况下实现。我们无疑正处在一个激动人心的时刻，尽管本季度的财务状况不那么令人振奋，但仍然有很多值得期待的事情，包括产品更新、新车型等等。
Why? I think it's going to be a great vehicle. It's an improvement to what's already the best selling vehicle in the world. And I think Tesla's, you know, my expectation would be that Tesla's through this update probably has figured out ways to continue to bring costs down on the model Y as well. And then hopefully you can leverage that across an even larger production rate for vehicles, you know, across the entirety of Tesla's business. So I'm exciting on that. Okay, I do see some super chats here. So let me take a look at those and then we'll probably wrap up. These are a little bit tricky for me to read here in this Hollywood KW. Thank you. I can't put this on screen, but that's just a compliment, I guess. But I guess I'll read it. I'll take Rob solid analysis and discussion over the shallow, quick-bated, instant sensationalized YouTube test of content that is out there in Fotainment over entertainment. Thank you. I mean, I think you guys know one of the problems I had with just being a YouTuber, I guess.
为什么？我觉得这将是一个很棒的车。这是在已经是世界上最畅销车辆的基础上进行的改进。我认为特斯拉可能通过这次升级找到了一些办法，继续降低Model Y的成本。希望能够在整个特斯拉公司的生产上实现规模效应。我对此感到非常兴奋。好的，我看到一些超级聊天信息，所以我去看看，然后我们可能就结束了。这些对我来说有点难读，这来自Hollywood KW，谢谢。我不能把它显示在屏幕上，但这就算一个表扬吧。我想我会读出来。我宁愿听Rob的深入分析和讨论，也不愿去看那些现在网上流行的肤浅、哗众取宠的YouTube内容。谢谢。我想你们都知道，我作为一个YouTuber所面临的一些问题。
Don't really like love the phrase, but one of the problems I had with it was just like, it's, you know, there are so many incentives. It's very hard to like swim against the grain of seeking attention because that's what you need to do to monetize, to be able to afford, you know, to run that business. It's just that's how you increase revenue. So I really did not like that. And probably one of the worst parts of what I, you know, was doing for a long time, not that I was engaging in that, but just like having to swim against that for a long time.
我不太喜欢这个说法，但我面临的一个问题是，有太多的诱因让人难以抵制追求关注的趋势，因为为了盈利并维持业务，这几乎是必不可少的。这就是增加收入的方法。所以我真的不喜欢这一点。这可能是我长期以来在工作中最不喜欢的一部分，不是说我参与其中，而是因为我不得不长时间地与这种趋势抗衡。
So I appreciate that recognition and appreciate the support because if you find people on YouTube that are not engaging in that stuff, you should definitely support them because, you know, they're making that decision actively and they're making it against a lot of incentives that. So I would suggest that they should not do that. Oh, Rex, good to see you on here. Rex said, if you believe an Elon's master plan and his abilities, cars and energy are important now, but will be much less important in the future. Like Ron Barron says, this is a generational opportunity. Yeah, totally agree. If you look at all of the businesses that he has been in, you know, it's always building for the next, for the next wave of growth and tessels gone through so many of those through the years, SpaceX is the same. So excited to head into the next one. Benjamin, I would pay a small amount for Tesla monthly. Any idea why they don't release detailed safety data on FSD data usually includes AP. So a couple things. So if you're talking about the safety report, I think the majority of that now is probably FSD. Maybe I'm incorrect in that thinking, but that would be my hunch. Now people ask like, okay, if Tesla's out like whatever, thousands of miles in between safety critical disengagements according to their calculations, why doesn't Tesla show us that data? The problem is that Tesla doesn't want.
所以我很感激这种认可，也很感激支持，因为如果你在YouTube上发现一些创作者没有参与那些不良的活动，你确实应该支持他们。因为他们是在很多诱惑面前主动做出了这个决定。所以我建议他们不要参与那些活动。哦，Rex，很高兴看到你在这里。Rex说，如果你相信Elon的宏伟计划和他的能力，那么汽车和能源现在很重要，但在未来会变得不那么重要。就像Ron Barron说的，这是一个跨代机会。完全同意。如果你看看他涉足的所有业务，知道他总是在为下一个增长浪潮做好准备，特斯拉在这么多年来经历了这些，SpaceX也是如此。我很期待进入下一个阶段。Benjamin，我愿意为特斯拉每月支付一小笔费用。有没有想过为什么他们不发布完整的FSD安全数据，通常包括自动驾驶数据。所以有几件事情。如果你在谈论安全报告，我想大部分现在可能是FSD的部分。也许我这样想不对，但这是我的直觉。现在人们会问，好吧，根据他们的计算，如果特斯拉在安全关键解除之间的行驶里程比如是几千英里，那为什么不公开这些数据？问题在于特斯拉不想。
Once you start sharing that data, you need to share it forever. Otherwise people will, will interpret the lack of sharing in the future as a huge red flag, which, you know, may be fair, maybe not. But once you start sharing something, then you need to continue to see consistent progress on that metric. When you're talking about something like FSD and to some extent, like the rate of progress is unknown or the ability to progress in the future is unknown, specifically the timeframe for that progress.
一旦你开始分享这些数据，就需要一直持续分享下去。否则，人们可能会将未来不再分享数据视为一个巨大的警示信号，这种看法可能有道理，也可能没有。但一旦你开始分享某些东西，就需要在该指标上持续取得一致的进展。特别是当你谈论的是类似FSD（全自动驾驶）这样的东西时，进展的速度未知，未来能否取得进展也未知，尤其是进展的时间框架。
As we've seen over the last many years, now I think Tesla has a lot more confidence now, but there's not a lot of upside to sharing it at the moments. If you get to a situation where let's say the progress like stalls out for a quarter, a couple of quarters, whatever, or even a regressives, even if it's due to seasonality, right? Like we talked about that with the safety report. There's regression due to seasonality. Once you start sharing these metrics, all of that sort of context starts to come into play. All of the questions start to center around those types of things.
过去几年中我们看到的情况是，我认为特斯拉现在更有信心了，但目前分享这些信息并没有太大好处。如果你遇到一种情况，比如说进展停滞了一个季度，或者几个季度，甚至出现倒退，即使是由于季节性因素导致的倒退，就像我们在安全报告中讨论过的那样，一旦你开始分享这些指标，所有这些背景因素都会变得重要起来。所有问题都会围绕这些方面展开。
And then you're also putting a metric out there that potentially is the right metric to optimize to, but once you start publishing those things, then inherently, there's some cultural attention to optimizing for those things. And maybe it's not the exact right metric that the team should be focused on at that exact moment in time. So there's very few benefits to sharing that. What does that do for Tesla? Does it just helps their stock price or helps consumer confidence, I guess, maybe a little bit, but those things are really not important if Tesla feels like they're actually going to solve this. The most important thing is just solving it rather than having to worry about these questions in the interim period. So if anything, it's just more of a distraction. There's risks associated with sharing those things that it just doesn't really seem worth it to me. So I think Tesla probably agrees. It's a good question though.
然后，你还设定了一个可能是优化目标的指标，但一旦你开始公布这些东西，自然而然地，文化上会关注优化这些指标。但可能这并不是团队在那个特定时间应该关注的确切指标。所以分享这些东西的好处很少。对于特斯拉来说，这有什么作用？可能对提高股票价格或消费者信心有一点帮助，但如果特斯拉觉得他们能真正解决问题，这些其实并不重要。最重要的是解决问题，而不是在这个过渡时期为这些问题操心。因此，如果有必要的话，这只是一种干扰。分享这些信息有风险，对我来说似乎不值得。所以我想特斯拉可能也同意。这确实是个好问题。
Alan, thank you for the superjet. Jack, good to see you on here. Optimus projections, 100 million units per year costs a 20K per unit, annual costs of $2 trillion per year, anticipated revenue of $10 trillion per year, gross profit margin of 80%. $8 trillion gross profit per year, missing anything. So yeah, on the numbers that he specifically said, fair, I think the $10 trillion though, he could have been talking about an even higher production rate, which I think Elon may have alluded to in the past. So obviously, if you say that's 200 million units per year, then that changes your gross margin equation pretty significantly. So I wouldn't necessarily link those as directly because they were separate comments.
艾伦，谢谢你的超级喷气机。杰克，很高兴在这里见到你。Optimus项目的预测是每年生产1亿台产品，每台成本2万美元，每年的总成本是2万亿美元，预计年收入是10万亿美元，毛利润率为80%。每年可以获得8万亿美元的毛利润。是不是遗漏了什么。所以，是的，关于他具体提到的数字，没问题。但我认为10万亿美元的年收入可能指的是更高的生产率，过去可能埃隆曾暗示过这一点。如果你说是每年2亿台的产量，那么这会显著改变毛利润的计算结果。所以，我不认为应该直接将这些联系在一起，因为它们是独立的评论。
Again, just trying to get through some of the superjet questions here. Was this the first call in a while where a dojo question was not asked? Probably. Probably. I do think Tesla is still working on dojo though, still focus. I'll tell you how good to see on here. No, you have other things going on, but please don't stop the quarterly calls. No plans to stop the quarterly calls. Like I said earlier, I think I enjoy this. So it's good to be back every once in a while. Stephen, just asking about First Principles Group. Yeah, so for those of you that don't know First Principles Group, that's my current primary focus for the foreseeable future. You can learn more about that at First Principles.group if you're not familiar.
再次尝试解决一些关于超级喷气式飞机的问题。这是近期第一次没有被问到Dojo（道场）相关的问题的电话会议吗？大概是的。不过，我确实认为特斯拉仍在推进Dojo的项目，仍然非常专注。我很高兴能在这里见到大家。虽然你们有其他事情要忙，但请不要停止季度电话会议。我没有计划停止季度电话会议。正如我之前所说的，我认为我很享受这个过程。所以偶尔回来感觉很好。Stephen 问到了关于 First Principles Group 的问题。对于那些不知道 First Principles Group 的人来说，这是我在可预见的未来的主要工作重点。如果你不太了解，可以访问 FirstPrinciples.group 了解更多信息。
Alright, so I think that's all the super chats again. Thank you for those. I really appreciate that. And I think we'll wrap it up here again soon, but I'll just reiterate FSD version 13 for me has been great. I'm in a difficult driving situation, right? Like I'm in the middle of winter in Chicago. It's very busy. You know, not that I've been dealing with like a lot of snow on these drives or anything. Like I think the road weather as it were has been fine. But it's been great. Obviously traffic is quite high in Chicago, but it's been performing phenomenally well. I love it. I can't imagine having a car that doesn't have FSD.
好的，我想这些就是所有的超级聊天内容了。感谢大家的支持，我真的很感激。我想我们很快就要结束了，但我想再重申一下，对我来说，FSD（全自动驾驶）版本13表现非常出色。我现在处于一个复杂的驾驶环境——在芝加哥的冬天，交通非常繁忙。不过，目前在驾驶过程中我并没有遇到很多积雪，路况还算不错。尽管芝加哥的交通非常拥堵，但FSD的表现依然非常出色。我非常喜欢它，无法想象没有FSD的车会是什么样子。
It's just so nice, so convenient. Especially in environments that you're not familiar with, right? I'm pretty familiar with Chicago at this point, but it's not an easy place to drive if you have not driven here before. And FSD feels like it's been driving here for a long time, which is really nice. So, alright, we'll wrap it up. Again, if you didn't catch the episode earlier, you can go check that out. We talk a little bit more about the financials in there. I think that's it.
这真是太好了，太方便了。尤其是在你不熟悉的环境中，对吧？我现在对芝加哥相当熟悉，但如果你以前没在这里开过车，在这里开车并不容易。而自动驾驶系统让人感觉像是在这里开过很久的车一样，这真不错。好了，我们就到这里。如果你之前没看到这个节目，可以去看看。我们在那里稍微谈了一些财务细节。我想就这些了。
Oh, someone did ask me for the politics talk. So I guess we'll wrap it up there on the least fun thing to discuss. Everyone's got their own feelings on political issues, right? And a lot of people's feelings are based in really great reasoning. And I think there's a lot of constructive points of view that people have on both sides for various different reasons and leads them to different conclusions. So I don't think having political discussions in a format like this where I'm talking to a lot of different people with a lot of different opinions. And I can't have any sort of back and forth with each of those people is really not super productive. So I won't get super deep into it, but I'm trying to remember what the specific question was. I think it was around, which I'm kind of talked about in the call, which matched what I had said briefly earlier before. It was kind of like the question was essentially, you know, it seems like there's a conflict in terms of what Tesla seeks to achieve with sustainable energy and the direction that the current administration seems to be taking around energy. Basically, you know, how do you resolve the conflict between those two different points of view? I think the first is that different points of view are acceptable, right? Like there's nothing wrong with having different points of view. Just because, you know, Elon may have a different point of view on energy doesn't mean that he can't be involved in an administration that has a different point of view if he has the same point of view on a lot of different other areas, which I think is the case. I think people like very, for some reason, like very much isolate and on one specific thing, which is oftentimes, you know, incorrect, especially to do when we're talking about a situation where there's two political parties, right? There's two choices and there's thousands of issues and there's going to be disagreements on, you know, across the board and in some, you know, percentage.
哦，有人确实要我谈一下政治问题。所以我想我们就把这个不太有趣的话题先结束吧。每个人在政治问题上都有自己的看法，对吧？很多人的观点都是基于很有道理的考量。我认为，无论是何种立场，很多人都有建设性的观点，不同的理由会让他们得出不同的结论。因此，在这样的场合下讨论政治问题，不是特别有效。因为我无法和每个人进行详细的交流，所以我不会深入探讨。不过我努力回忆了一下具体的问题。我认为问题涉及到，我之前在通话中也提到过，也与我之前简单说明过的内容一致。问题大致是，特斯拉在可持续能源上的目标与当前政府在能源方面的政策看起来有冲突，如何调和这两者不同的观点？我认为首先要接受不同的观点，对吧？有不同的看法并没有错。仅仅因为Elon在能源问题上有不同的看法，不意味着他不能参与与他其他领域观点一致的政府。我觉得人们有时会过于关注某个具体问题，并因此得出错误的结论，尤其是在只有两个政党供选择的情况下。千头万绪中难免会有分歧。
So first of all, I don't think the conflict is, you know, the expectation to not have any sort of conflict or disagreement or whatever is, you know, sort of a false premise to start with. And then in the case of this particular, I guess, quote unquote conflict or whatever, as Elon said, I don't think it's a major concern for him because I think that, and he very clearly stated it, I think that he thinks that the technology, the path for technology for sustainable energy, I don't want to say like achieved, but I think that he thinks that that path is certain because Elon's thinking of things from a first principles perspective and he thinks that those first principles are organized or whatever they exist in a way that makes this and inevitability. And what Tesla's always trying to do is accelerate that, right? Like they're not saying that we need to, like Tesla's never said that we need to regulate this because it's not going to happen if we don't regulate it. Tesla's always just tried to bring the technological accelerant acceleration to make that happen more quickly. And I think Tesla's done a great job of that. And I think they'll continue to do a great job of that regardless of what regulatory regime exists in whatever region. Like that's not going to change Tesla's focus on on achieving those things and helping, you know, accelerate that progress to these new technologies that are should be fundamentally superior, at least from Elon's point of view.
首先，我认为期望没有任何冲突或分歧本身就是一个错误的前提。在这个具体的所谓“冲突”中，正如Elon所说，他并不认为这是一个重大问题。我认为，他认为可持续能源技术的发展路径已经相当确定。Elon从基本原理的角度思考问题，他认为这些基本原理的存在是合乎逻辑的，使得可持续能源的实现成为必然。而特斯拉一直在做的就是加速这个进程。他们从未表示需要通过监管来推动这一进程，因为即便没有监管，这个进程也会发生。特斯拉一直试图通过技术的加速推动，实现更快的进展。我认为特斯拉在这方面做得非常出色，并且无论未来各地的监管如何变化，他们都会继续在这方面表现出色。这不会改变特斯拉实现这些目标的专注度，也不会影响他们加速这些先进技术进步的决心。在Elon看来，这些新技术 fundamentally 优越。
So the analogy he gave there was was great. Like no matter how much regulation you had around horses or internal combustion engines, like internal combustion engines were going to win. Similarly, autonomous electric vehicles are going to win for the reasons we talked about before. You have much cheaper costs of operating them. It's just, you know, that's how sound technology and economics and everything works. Those are the forcing functions that ultimately are going to matter most rather than the regulatory forcing functions. So I think that's how Elon views it, how he squares it with his involvement and, and all sorts of things like that.
他给出的类比非常棒。就像不管对马车或内燃机引擎采取多少监管措施，内燃机最终还是会胜出。同样地，无人驾驶电动车也会胜出，这是因为我们之前提到的原因。它们的运营成本更低，这就是先进技术和经济规律的运行方式。这些推动因素最终才是最重要的，而不是监管措施。所以我认为这就是埃隆·马斯克的看法，以及他如何平衡自己参与其中的各种事物。
So do we, do we, a couple more, another super chat in here. Anders, thank you. Do we pay enough attention to the amazing safety report referenced? So again, I talked about that a little bit in the episode earlier today. So I won't reiterate that but go back and watch that if you missed it. It's tough. Like, do we pay enough attention to it? I think we do in sort of like this Tesla space outside of it, probably not. It's tough because like the data that Tesla's presenting there is not great. It's, you know, they're comparing instances where autopilot or FSD is active, which generally could be active in situations that are safer in general versus then comparing it to just a total aggregate of all miles driven in terms of like collision rates for, you know, US population of cars on average. And again, the population of those vehicles can be older. Maybe those are older vehicles have some faults that causes them to be more for clean accidents. Maybe they don't have the advanced active safety features that most cars on the road that are newer vehicles have. So there's a lot of flaws in using that as like the benchmark.
我们也是，一个多一点，还有一个超级聊天进来。Anders，谢谢你。我们是否足够关注提到的那个令人惊叹的安全报告？今天早些时候的节目中我已经稍微谈到过这个问题，所以我不多说了，如果你错过了，可以回去看看。这确实是个难题。我们是否给予它足够的关注？我觉得在特斯拉这个圈子里，我们是比较关注的，但在圈子外，可能就不是了。这很困难，因为特斯拉提供的数据并不总是那么理想。他们比较的是在自动驾驶或完全自动驾驶系统（FSD）开启情况下的事故，通常这些功能会在较为安全的情况下启用，然后再将其与所有驾驶里程的总和进行比较，以了解美国车辆平均的碰撞率。此外，这些车辆中可能有一些是比较老旧的，可能由于一些缺陷更容易发生事故，不具备多数新车所具有的先进主动安全功能。因此，使用这些数据作为基准有很多缺陷。
If you're talking about being 10 times better, you need to be 10 times better on the same system, right? Which would be a Tesla vehicle driving the exact same miles, same driving domain, everything the same. You need to be better on that versus just like the overall vehicle average. That should be the bar. And you should probably be significantly better because of all the issues around, you know, liability. Like you're going to, you're going to be fine if you crash yourself. You're not going to, well, people are going to still blame the other party, but let's say you crash yourself into a wall. Or something that's going to be much more acceptable to you and to the media and to the judicial system and all that sort of stuff. Then an autonomous vehicle crashing into the same wall in the same circumstances. So it's just it needs to be better for many reasons. And I don't lost my train of thought there, but hopefully that makes sense.
如果你想要提高到比现在好10倍，你需要在同一个系统上做到这点，对吧？也就是说，使用一辆特斯拉车辆在完全相同的行驶里程和驾驶环境下做到更好。你需要在这个基础上提升，而不仅仅是提高车辆的整体平均水平。这应该是最低标准。而且由于涉及到责任问题，你实际上需要显著更好。比如说，如果你自己开车撞墙了，媒体和司法系统可能会更容易接受这种情况，因为人们通常会责怪另一方。但如果一个自动驾驶车辆在相同情况下撞墙，情况就会变得更复杂。因此，出于种种原因，自动驾驶系统需要做到更好。我可能有点跑题了，但希望这能说明问题。
Will Rob, I think I speak for everyone here. We miss you a lot. I'm also in pay subscription for the Tesla weekly on Apple podcast. I can I can consider it. This was a lot of fun. I think I'm I think I was pretty burned out on Tesla daily. I think I'm like starting to get a little bit out of that burnout, which is really nice. So this has been good. I'll consider it. No promises. I'm going to keep doing the quarterly. But it is nice to be back and just the support is awesome. Like this this audience and communities always been awesome and that continues obviously. So I really do appreciate that.
威尔·罗布，我想我可以代表在场的每一个人说，我们非常想念你。我还订阅了苹果播客上的特斯拉周刊。我可以考虑一下。这次交流真的很有趣。之前，我对特斯拉日报感到有些疲惫，但现在似乎有些恢复，这种感觉真不错。所以这次经历很棒。我会考虑的，但不保证会持续。不过，我会继续做季度内容。能回来真好，你们的支持让人感动。这群听众和社区一直都很棒，并且一直持续。所以我真的很感激。
All right. I got to wrap it up. It's been four hours of this almost. So I appreciate you guys tuning in. Again, this was a pleasure. I'm excited. You know about the earnings call. I'm excited about what's to come this year in 2025. And I'll try to check in at least a little bit more frequently at least on X, if not if not on episodes.
好的，我得结束了。这都差不多四个小时了。感谢你们的收看。这次交流很愉快，我对财报电话会议感到兴奋，也期待2025年的发展。我会尽量更加频繁地至少在X平台上与大家交流，即便不是通过节目。