Markets Weekly January 25, 2025
发布时间 2025-01-25 17:06:43 来源
Hello my friends, today is January 25th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a pretty good weekend market. We have the S&P 500 making you all-time highs. The same time, 10-year yield came down a bit and the dollar softened a bit as well.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是1月25日，这是《市场周报》。过去的一周市场表现相当不错。标准普尔500指数创下历史新高。同时，10年期国债收益率略有下降，美元也有所走软。
The big news was the past week was about the Trump administration. This past week was the first week of the new Trump administration and President Trump signed a whole bunch of executive orders. So let's talk about the tone and some of the orders that President Trump did.
上周的大新闻与特朗普政府有关。上周是新一届特朗普政府履职的第一周，特朗普总统签署了许多行政令。让我们来谈谈这些行政令的基调和内容。
Secondly and related, let's talk a little bit about trade in China. China not too long ago recorded a whopping $1 trillion trade surplus with the rest of the world, which is totally bonkers. So let's talk a little bit about that.
其次，我们来讨论一下中国的贸易问题。不久前，中国录得了一个巨大的贸易顺差，达到1万亿美元，这真是让人难以置信。所以我们来聊聊这个话题。
And lastly, this past week we also had the Bank of Japan high creates very uneventful, but still let's see what's happening in Japan. Okay, starting with President Trump. Now many people were worried that President Trump would waltz into the Oval Office and begin to levy tariffs bigly. Now that didn't happen and the market was a little bit relieved.
最后，在过去这一周，日本银行利率上调虽然事件不大，但我们仍然要看看日本发生了什么。好，从特朗普总统说起。很多人曾担心特朗普总统会一上任就在总统办公室大幅度征收关税。然而，这并没有发生，因此市场稍微松了一口气。
Though President Trump did sign an order asking federal agencies to study trade practices. And then later on also suggested that starting on February 1st, he would levy tariffs of 25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico, and 10% on China. So big tariffs seem to be coming, but I think there's a process in doing this.
尽管特朗普总统确实签署了一项命令，要求联邦机构研究贸易政策。但随后，他还建议从2月1日起对加拿大征收25%的关税，对墨西哥征收25%的关税，对中国征收10%的关税。因此，看起来会有重大关税出台，但我认为这个过程需要一定时间。
And of course he's still staffing up his administration. From what I hear, it seems to be that the administration is unhappy that a lot of countries like China are setting up factories in Mexico and then sending those goods through the free trade area to the US. And you don't want that.
当然，他还在为他的政府团队招募人员。根据我的了解，政府似乎对许多国家（例如中国）在墨西哥设厂，然后通过自由贸易区将商品运往美国感到不满。这是他们不希望发生的情况。
As President Trump noted in his speech at Davos, he wants companies to build in America. Even if you don't do that and if you want to, let's say, manufacture abroad and then export to the US, you're going to have to pay a tariff. So looking across his executive orders, it seems very clear to me that Trump wants growth.
正如特朗普总统在达沃斯演讲中提到的，他希望公司在美国建厂。即使您不这样做，并且如果您想在国外制造然后出口到美国，您也需要支付关税。综观他的行政命令，我很清楚地看到，特朗普是想要经济增长。
Now he wants, and you can see this in a number of ways. Again, to get growth, you want to encourage businesses to expand to build. You want people to start businesses. And so you can see this in a number of ways. First off, the past week, very publicly, he was with a masa son from Japan and many other famous investors who all pledged to invest a whole bunch of money in the United States. It seems like the leader of Saudi Arabia, MBS, is also going to be pouring in, let's say, $600 billion into the US.
现在，他希望（你可以通过多种方式看到这一点）促进经济增长。他想要鼓励企业扩展和建设，也希望人们创办企业。你可以从多方面看到他的努力。首先，上周，他非常公开地与来自日本的孙正义以及其他许多知名投资者会面，这些投资者都承诺要在美国投资大量资金。据说，沙特阿拉伯的领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（MBS）似乎也准备向美国投入6000亿美元。
Now I don't know if they were actually put in all that money. These are very big numbers. But he's making an effort, President Trump is making an effort to go across the world to try to ask people to invest in the US, which I think is very good since a positive term. And it's not what every leader in the world does.
现在我不知道他们是否真的投入了那么多钱。这些数字非常庞大。但特朗普总统正在努力，他正在全球范围内争取让人们投资美国。我认为这是一个很好的事情，因为这是一个积极的举措。而且并不是世界上每个领导人都会这样做。
But as a correlator that the White House is doing everything it can to entice businesses to come. Now they talk about having lower corporate tax rates. That's not in their part to give. Although it does seem like Congress will have lower tax rates, do something with tax going forward. But what they are doing, which is within their part to do, has to do with regulatory relief.
翻译成中文：
但可以看出，白宫正在全力吸引企业进驻。现在他们谈论的是降低公司税率。不过，这并不完全是他们所能决定的事情。虽然国会似乎会降低税率，在税收方面采取一些措施。但他们实际在做的，是在他们能力范围内的事情，涉及到减少监管负担。
Now the executive orders are about reducing regulation. And so that is actually a kind of a big component in attracting businesses. So I think a regulation basically as a cost to a business, it's an amorphous thing. But if you can reduce the regulatory burden, it essentially makes things easier and cheaper for a business.
现在，这些行政命令的重点是减少监管。这实际上是吸引企业的一个重要组成部分。我认为，监管基本上对企业来说是一种成本，这种成本是无形的。但是，如果你能够减轻监管负担，基本上就能让企业运作得更简单、更省钱。
For example, let's say that you wanted to build a nuclear power plant in the US. As I understand, that takes at least 10 years. And President Trump being a real estate developer obviously knows that building any building requires environmental impacts studies, permits and so forth. So it seems like there is a pledge by the administration that if you invest at least a billion dollars, they will make an effort to try to shorten the time it takes to get these permits. So that is encouraging of course to businesses.
比如说，你想在美国建造一座核电站。据我了解，这至少需要10年。而作为房地产开发商的特朗普总统显然知道，建任何建筑都需要进行环境影响研究、获取许可证等。因此，政府似乎承诺，如果你投资至少十亿美元，他们会努力缩短获得这些许可证所需的时间。这当然对企业来说是个鼓舞人心的消息。
Another related aspect is the executive orders when it comes to drilling and when it comes to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord. Now both of these are related. What the administration wants to do is to lower energy costs. You can get that by encouraging the private sector to drill more. As I understand, President Trump is also asking Saudi Arabia to pump more oil.
另一个相关方面是关于钻探的行政命令以及退出《巴黎气候协定》的行政命令。这两者是相关联的。政府想要做的是降低能源成本。你可以通过鼓励私营部门增加钻探来实现这一点。据我所知，特朗普总统也在请求沙特阿拉伯增产石油。
I don't know if they'll do that. But they're making an effort to increase the supply of energy. And by withdrawing from a Paris Climate Accord, it makes it easier to encourage the production of fossil fuels.
我不知道他们是否会这样做。不过，他们正努力增加能源供应。退出《巴黎气候协议》使得鼓励化石燃料生产变得更加容易。
Now in other countries, for example, in Canada, they have something called a carbon tax in the Euroland. They don't like fossil fuels. They want to do things like wind and solar, which are great energy sources, but of course, also more expensive. So if you look at the cost of electricity across the world, you notice that in the United States, it's a lot cheaper.
在其他国家，比如加拿大，他们有一种叫做碳税的东西。在欧洲，他们不太喜欢化石燃料，更倾向于使用风能和太阳能这样的可再生能源，这些能源虽然很好，但成本相对较高。因此，如果你看看全球电力费用，你会注意到美国的电费便宜得多。
Now that's very attractive to energy intensive businesses, like industrial businesses. So we hear many stories about companies in Germany leaving the country because the price of energy has gotten so high that they can't be competitive.
现在这对能源密集型企业来说非常有吸引力，比如工业企业。因此，我们听说很多德国企业正在离开这个国家，因为能源价格太高，使得他们无法具备竞争力。
One other aspect the Trump administration is trying to do has to do with migration. Now there's a lot of discussion that Trump doesn't like immigrants, but that's really not what he's saying. Now President Trump is very famous for not liking illegal immigrants. And so he has a deportation effort.
特朗普政府正在尝试处理的另一个问题与移民有关。现在有很多人认为特朗普不喜欢移民，但实际上他并不是这么说的。特朗普总统非常明确地反对非法移民，因此他正在努力进行驱逐行动。
Again, there is a national security aspect to this. And of course, I think he wants to have immigrants that are skilled and able to contribute to the US. Now within Trump world, there's a big debate and we saw it play out publicly in Twitter, where some people in Trump world don't want to have skilled immigrants, whereas others want to.
这其中涉及国家安全的因素。当然，我认为他希望吸引有技能并能为美国做出贡献的移民。然而，在特朗普的圈子内，关于这个问题存在很大争议。我们在推特上也看到了一些公开的辩论：有些人反对接收有技能的移民，而另一些人则支持。
It seems very clear that Trump took the side of the pro-legal immigration people and is opened having more H1Bs. Now Elon Musk, of course himself being a skilled immigrant to the US is obviously a big voice on this subject. So it seems like Trump is going to be more open to having more skilled migration. And that of course is helpful to businesses as well.
看起来很明显，特朗普支持那些赞成合法移民的人，并且对增加H1B签证持开放态度。当然，埃隆·马斯克本人也是一位技术移民，因此在这个话题上他有很大影响力。因此，特朗普似乎会对增加技术移民更加开放。这对企业也有利。
They're able to get the talent they want to be totally clear. Some businesses do abuse this and it is a way for them to reduce their labor costs. But at the end of the day, if you have more skilled migrants, that is ultimately pro-growth. You have more people and people who are productive. So overall the tone of the first week is very clearly President Trump trying to do everything he can to boost US growth.
他们能够获得他们想要的人才，这是显而易见的。一些企业确实滥用了这一点，把它作为降低劳动力成本的一种方式。但最终，如果有更多技术型移民，这对于经济增长是有利的。你有更多的人口，这些人又都很有生产力。因此，总体来说，第一周的基调非常清楚，就是特朗普总统正在尽一切努力促进美国的增长。
Now I think the stance and the stark contrast to what's happening in many other countries in the world, whose leaders are obviously not as business friendly. So when I think about these actions, now it's not going to do much in the near term, but in the medium term, it sets up a very big divergence between the US and other countries.
现在，我认为这种立场与世界上许多其他国家的情况形成了鲜明对比，这些国家的领导人显然没有那么亲商。因此，当我考虑这些行动时，我认为它们在短期内不会产生太大影响，但在中期，它们会在美国和其他国家之间形成一个非常大的分化。
So if the US is trying to go out and basically steal foreign corporations and have them come into the US, well that's good for the US, but that's going to be a lot of job losses abroad. In addition, what if the US wants to go and steal skilled workers from other countries? Now they've been doing this for some time, but of course this can easily accelerate.
所以，如果美国试图吸引外国公司到美国发展，这对美国有好处，但会导致国外大量的工作岗位流失。此外，如果美国想从其他国家吸引有技能的工人呢？他们其实已经这样做了一段时间，但这种趋势很可能会加速。
So if you are the exact same job, for example, done in a Euroland versus done in the US, there's a big difference in wages. That same person can literally double or triple their after-tax income doing the exact same job in the US. It's actually really quite stark, even a country like the UK where you would think of it as relatively wealthy, actually has much lower wages.
所以，如果你在欧元区完成一份工作，和在美国完成同样的工作，那么工资会有很大不同。同一个人如果在美国做同样的工作，他们的税后收入甚至可以翻倍或三倍。这种差异非常明显，即使是在像英国这样被认为相对富裕的国家，工资实际上也低得多。
So this is a big problem for many of these more generous social welfare system countries, because their generous benefits are really dependent upon ongoing economic growth. And if they don't have that, that's a recipe for a lot of political unrest.
这对于那些福利制度较为慷慨的国家来说是一个大问题，因为他们慷慨的福利实际上依赖于持续的经济增长。如果没有这样的增长，就会导致严重的政治动荡。
I saw an article in the FT today where Manam Lagarde of the ECB is thinking that maybe Europol still has some skilled migrants from the US who just don't like Trump. Well with that kind of, I think, unrealistic thinking, I think other countries that are going to have a tough time in the Trump era.
我今天在《金融时报》上看到一篇文章，欧洲央行的拉加德女士认为，也许Europol还有一些来自美国的技能型移民，他们只是不喜欢特朗普。然而，我觉得这种想法有些不切实际。我认为在特朗普时代，其他国家也将面临困难。
Now one other thing that I think is really interesting is that Trump seems to be very serious about getting Greenland. Now there is another article in the FT revealing Canada discussions between Trump and Denmark. And it seems to be that Trump is very serious in views, Greenland as basically a national security issue, because as the Arctic becomes more important, the he sees China and Russia expanding into the Arctic and feels that America needs to be there as well.
我觉得另一件很有趣的事情是，特朗普似乎非常认真地想要购入格陵兰岛。《金融时报》有另一篇文章透露，特朗普与丹麦之间进行了相关讨论。特朗普似乎非常看重格陵兰岛，视其为国家安全问题，因为随着北极地区的重要性增加，他看到中国和俄罗斯在扩展影响力，所以他认为美国也需要在北极有所作为。
So maybe that would happen as well. Now one of President Trump's favorite presidents is President McKinley. And President McKinley is famous for doing many things among which is expanding the territory of the US where he took Puerto Rico and also annexed Hawaii.
所以这也可能会发生。现在，特朗普总统最喜欢的总统之一是麦金莱总统。麦金莱总统因做了许多事情而闻名，其中包括扩张美国的领土，他占领了波多黎各，还吞并了夏威夷。
So I think it's not a subtle hint of what a person in Trump wants to do. We'll see what happens. Okay, the second thing I want to talk about is China. Now looking at this graph, you see that China recently recorded a just a mind-boggling $1 trillion trade surplus with the rest of the world. Now that's China selling a lot more to the rest of the world than they import.
所以我认为，这并不是一个微妙的暗示关于特朗普身边的人想做什么。我们拭目以待。好吧，我想谈的第二件事是中国。现在看看这张图表，你会发现中国最近录得惊人的1万亿美元的贸易顺差。这意味着中国对外销售的商品远远超过了他们的进口量。
And at the end of the day, be ha $1 trillion wealthier. Now this is totally, totally insane. How do you have a $1 trillion trade surplus? Now if you think about it, if China's making so much cash, then maybe they take that cash and they buy some foreign goods and services. And so maybe the trade deficit should correct in that sense, but that's not happening. Or maybe they import so much stuff, they take that foreign currency, they sell it for R&B and in turn, the R&B appreciates and this makes their exports less attractive. And so that corrects that way, but that's not happening either. So very obviously something is happening here, such that the trade surplus is chronic and it's very clear why.
在一天结束时，拥有1万亿美元的财富。这简直是无法想象的。如何能有1万亿美元的贸易顺差呢？仔细想想，如果中国赚了这么多钱，可能会用这些钱购买外国商品和服务，这样贸易逆差就会得到一定的纠正，但事实并非如此。或者，也许他们进口大量的东西，用这些外汇换成人民币，这会导致人民币升值，使他们的出口变得不那么有吸引力，从而纠正这一情况，但这也没有发生。所以，显然这里有什么事情发生，使得贸易顺差长期存在，并且原因很明显。
So first let's talk about why this is happening and secondly what the implications could be. So the reason that the Chinese have a very large trade surplus and people talk about having cheap labor and so forth and that's totally true, but again, it doesn't explain why these corrective mechanisms haven't gone to play. The reason is very easily that it's state policy, right? The managed currency so that it cannot appreciate, so that their goods remain competitive. And of course it has a lot of social levers to limit the purchasing power of the general public, which as they would tell you over there, the Chinese government is rich, but the people are not rich. So they have a very tightly controlled system that's able to produce this outcome. A good example of this of course is the tremendous growth of the Chinese auto industry.
首先，让我们谈谈为什么会发生这种情况，其次是可能产生的影响。中国拥有巨大的贸易顺差，很多人谈论中国的廉价劳动力等，这确实是事实，但这仍然不能解释为什么没有起到纠正作用的机制。原因很简单，这是因为国家政策。他们管理货币，不让其升值，以保持其商品的竞争力。当然，他们还通过许多社会杠杆来限制公众的购买力，正如他们会告诉你的那样，中国政府很富有，但人民并不富有。因此，他们建立了一个严格控制的体系，能够实现这种结果。一个很好的例子就是中国汽车产业的巨大增长。
Now not many people associate China with the automotive industry, but recently they've become the world's largest auto exporter. If you look at this chart here, you can see that they've really really built up their industrial export capacity. Now this is a function of basically government policy where the state owned banks give very cheap loans to businesses, build out their supply chain, everything is subsidized across the supply chain, including of course having a cheap currency, and that allows the Chinese to grow as a very, very competitive industry and then go and expert throughout the world at very low prices. Now we don't see Chinese cars in the US because high tariffs prevent their importing, but you do see an increase in Chinese cars in many other countries.
现在，许多人还没有将中国与汽车工业联系在一起，但最近中国已经成为全球最大的汽车出口国。看看这张图表，你会发现中国的工业出口能力大大提升。这主要得益于政府政策，国有银行为企业提供低利率贷款，建设供应链，供应链的各个环节都有补贴，此外还有廉价的货币，这些因素都使得中国汽车工业非常具有竞争力，能够以非常低的价格在全球范围内出口。我们在美国看不到中国汽车，因为高关税阻止了它们的进口，但在其他许多国家，越来越多的中国汽车开始出现。
This is an increasingly big problem in Europe for example, because their automotive industry is not competitive with China, but when they put on tariffs on this, that also conflicts with their goal of having a green energy transition, which would lead, now if you wanted green energy of course you would import cheaper electric cars and batteries, right? So there's a conflict between the green movement and having an industrial base, basically protecting jobs. So basically they have the state policy that makes it very difficult for anyone else to compete with them. That leads to a large trade surplus. Now we've seen this recently in the solar panel industry where once upon a time Germany for example was a very big player in the solar panel industry.
这个问题在欧洲日益严重。比如说，他们的汽车工业在与中国的竞争中处于劣势，但如果他们对汽车加征关税，这又与他们推进绿色能源转型的目标相冲突。因为如果想要实现绿色能源，自然会进口更便宜的电动车和电池，对吧？所以在绿色运动和保护工业基础、就业之间存在冲突。本质上，他们的国家政策让其他竞争者很难与其竞争，导致贸易顺差巨大。最近，我们在太阳能电池板行业也看到了类似的情况，比如在过去，德国曾是太阳能电池板行业的主要参与者。
Now that whole industry is taken over by China simply because no one can compete when you have a state sponsorship of such a large industry. So that leads us to come on kind of the movement that Trump is trying to do where he wants businesses to build in America rather than import. So as you can see, this is an unsolvable problem because the whole Chinese industrial policy is oriented towards building in China and exporting abroad. And so that there's not going to be an easy solution to the trade war. Now this also leads us to the question of what does China do with those trillions and trillions of dollars, right? They're making trillions of dollars. What do they do with it?
现在整个行业已经被中国接管，因为在一个国家资助如此大规模产业的情况下，没有人能竞争。这使得特朗普想推动的运动，即希望企业在美国制造产品而不是进口，变得更加迫切。正如你所看到的，这个问题难以解决，因为整个中国的产业政策是围绕在中国制造并出口到国外为导向的。因此，中美贸易战不会有简单的解决方案。这也引出了一个问题：中国赚了无数的美元，他们究竟会如何使用这些资金呢？
Now this is a puzzle because if you look at the PBOCs, foreign reserves, they really haven't changed that much over the past few years. They've kind of hung around, you know, three, three, three, four trillion dollars. So where's all of that extra cash going? Now Brad Setzer, who is an expert on this, suggests that all this extra money is being hidden in the state banks who then use it for to manage their currency. So a lot of things are opaque in China, but there is tremendous, tremendous amounts of cash there. Some people even think that, you know, maybe part of the reason that we have bullion financial markets and so forth is because all this money has to go somewhere.
现在，这让人感到困惑，因为如果你看看中国人民银行的外汇储备，近年来并没有太大变化，一直维持在三、四万亿美元之间。那么这些额外的资金到底去哪儿了呢？专家布拉德·塞策（Brad Setzer）认为，这些额外的资金可能被隐藏在国有银行中，并用于管理货币。因此，中国的很多事情都不透明，但那里确实有着巨额的现金。有些人甚至认为，也许正是因为这些资金需要找到去处，才导致了金融市场的动荡和其他现象。
So it's a really difficult puzzle, opacity, but the Chinese government has trillions of trillions of dollars and they continue to make more. And we'll see if the trade war does anything to solve that. One I related note, Brad Setzer also has a very interesting piece where he shows that the Chinese government actually changed their methodology to try to hide some of this tremendous trade surplus. Now the one trillion dollar trade surplus is based on customs data, which is how it's done for basically everyone in the world.
这实在是一个很复杂的难题，中国政府拥有大量的资金，并且还在不断积累。我们将拭目以待，看看贸易战是否能对此有所解决。值得一提的是，布拉德·塞泽发表了一篇很有趣的文章，他指出中国政府实际上改变了他们的方法，以试图掩盖其中的大量贸易顺差。现在，这一万亿美元的贸易顺差是基于海关数据计算得出的，而这种计算方法基本上在全球都是这样使用的。
Now most recently they've come up with a new revised methodology where the Chinese government has a much smaller trade surplus in this new methodology. And what this methodology does is that it counts goods produced in China that are owned by let's say foreign companies to actually be a foreign import. For example, let's say that if you have an American factory in China making iPhones and when that American factory produces an iPhone in China and sells to the Chinese market, now the Chinese government in these new statistics takes counted as an import simply because the factory is owned by a foreign company.
最近，他们提出了一种新的修订方法，根据这种方法，中国的贸易顺差变得小了很多。这个方法的作用是将由外国公司拥有的中国生产商品算作外国进口。例如，如果一家美国公司在中国开设工厂生产iPhone，并将这些iPhone销售到中国市场，根据这种新统计方法，中国政府会将此类产品视为进口，因为生产工厂属于外国公司。
No other country in the world does this, but when you do this it makes the trade surplus look about 300 billion dollars smaller. Of course that's all nonsense, but it does show that the Chinese government is increasingly sensitive to this tremendous tremendous trade imbalance that it seems like it's probably going to get resolved because it does seem like other countries including the European Union are getting concerned about it. Okay, so the last thing that I want to talk about is the Bank of Japan. Now the Bank of Japan as we all know, hiked rates last summer that seemed to surprise the market and led to this huge carry trade unwind where the markets melted down but quickly recovered.
世界上没有其他国家这样做，但当这样做时，会让贸易顺差看起来减少了大约3000亿美元。当然，这都是无稽之谈，但这确实表明中国政府对这一巨大的贸易失衡越来越敏感。看起来这个问题可能会得到解决，因为包括欧盟在内的其他国家对此表示关切。好的，我最后想谈的是日本央行。正如我们所知，日本央行去年夏天加息，这似乎让市场感到意外，导致了大规模的套利交易解除，市场因此大幅下跌，但很快又恢复了。
Now Bank of Japan back then was thinking that they would hiked rates again in October, but they didn't do that and so they kept doing it. Then the market thought maybe December, but finally, finally hiked rates this past week. The market was well prepared for this. The Bank of Japan of course is aware that they don't want to panic the markets. It's no good for them to see the Nikkei go down several percent in a day and so they prepared the market very well by basically leaking it and having BOG officials last week to prepare the market that they're going to hike and wish they did. This was 100 percent priced in and the price reaction wasn't very muted.
日本央行早先曾考虑在10月再次加息，但没有这样做，所以他们继续保持原状。市场随后认为可能会在12月加息。最终，在上周他们终于加息了。市场对此早有准备。日本央行当然知道，他们不希望市场出现恐慌，因为看到日经指数在一天内下跌几个百分点对他们并没有好处。因此，他们通过基本泄露信息，让央行官员在上周准备市场，加以说明他们将会加息，结果也确实如此。这次加息完全被市场预料到，价格反应也很平淡。
Now what was interesting in this meeting was that the BOG released their forecasts and their inflation forecasts went up notably for 2025. Now late last year, their thinking inflation would be about 1.9 percent in 2025, but that's been up to 2.5 percent huge jump upwards. Now that is getting people thinking that the BOG might hike maybe one or two times more this year. Now this is of course a big divergence between the rest of the world where everyone thinks that the direction of travel for the Fed for example is more rate cuts.
这次会议中有趣的是，英格兰银行（BOG）发布了他们的预测，其中2025年的通胀预测显著上升。去年年底，他们预计2025年的通胀率大约是1.9%，但现在已经上升到2.5%，这是一个很大的跳升。这让人们开始猜测，BOG今年可能会加息一到两次。这与世界其他地区形成了很大的差异，因为许多人认为，比如美联储的方向是更多的降息。
The Bank of Japan is forecast to continue the hike rates. Now the yen hasn't moved that much on this news, but it does suggest that these interest rate differentials will continue to narrow and maybe the yen will continue, will begin to strengthen now. So that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in and I'll talk to you guys next week is a Fed week. So I'll be back to debrief on the FOMC. Again, this is going to be very uneventful and nothing will happen, but we'll get to hear more about Chair Powell's thoughts about the incoming Trump administration and trade policy. All right, talk to you guys then.
日本央行预计将继续加息。目前，日元在这一消息下波动不大，但这表明利率差距将持续缩小，日元可能会开始走强。这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听，我会在下周与大家谈话，因为下周是美联储周。我会回来对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）进行简报。这次会议将非常平静，没有什么重大事件发生，但我们将听到更多关于鲍威尔主席对即将上任的特朗普政府和贸易政策的看法。好的，那就下次再聊。