Berlin Already Producing New Model Y / 4680 Supply Update / Nvidia Blasts New AI Regulations ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dileunumus. Quick shout out to Jeff A and Nadine V. Thank you for using my Tesla referral link and congratulations on your new Tesla. Real quick, if you emailed me last week letting me know you used my referral link last year and you did not yet receive my little thank you, just email me again and let me know. But pretty sure I have everybody covered that did reach out. As we all know, there are plenty of different reasons that different people come to be such a fan of Tesla Company. Just make sure you don't forget that Tesla is a company that tries to do good wherever it can. Over the weekend, Altadena Mountain Rescue posted on IG a donation of Cybertrucks from Tesla to be utilized as battery banks at the station until power is restored. This will greatly help the team to power radios, computers and lights as we work into the dark. On X, Elon said apologies to those expecting Cybertruck deliveries in California over the next few days, we need to use those trucks as mobile base stations to provide power to Starlink internet terminals in areas of LA without connectivity. A new truck will be delivered by the end of the week. Elon said we're going to position Cybertrucks with Starlink and free wifi in a grid pattern in the areas that most need it in the greater LA and Malibu area. Sunday evening, Elon said adding a lot more to this effort tonight and tomorrow. Not only is Tesla providing these Cybertrucks but they're adding security personnel, in vehicle and snacks and beverages for passers-by.

欢迎来到Electrified，我是主持人Dileunumus。特别感谢Jeff A和Nadine V，感谢你们使用我的特斯拉推荐链接，祝贺你们购买了新的特斯拉。如果你上周给我发了邮件表示去年使用了我的推荐链接但还没有收到我的小礼物，请再次邮件告诉我。不过我敢肯定联系过我的人都收到了。众所周知，特斯拉公司拥有许多不同的粉丝原因。记住，特斯拉是一家尽力做好事的公司。周末，Altadena Mountain Rescue在IG上发布了一则消息，特斯拉捐赠了一些Cybertrucks，用作电源库以维持电力直到恢复。这将极大帮助救援队在黑暗中为电台、电脑和灯光供电。Elon在X上表示，对未来几天在加州期待Cybertruck交付的人们表示歉意，因为我们需要把这些车用作移动基站，为洛杉矶没有连接的区域提供Starlink互联网服务。新的卡车将在本周末前交付。Elon表示，我们会在大洛杉矶和马里布区域，以网格形式部署Cybertrucks并提供Starlink和免费WiFi。周日晚上，Elon说今天晚上和明天将为这个工作添加更多支持。特斯拉不仅提供Cybertrucks，还增加了安保人员、车内设施及为路人准备了零食和饮料。

Today, diligent Denizin on X said Elon just drove by us after dropping off Starlink to the firefighters at the Palisades. An entire caravan of Cybertrucks drove past us on the PCH, impressive, I have to say, every day I grow to respect this guy more and more. Not only all of that but Tesla said they're covering housing accommodations and supporting employees with transportation and meals, all of their supercharger sites are back online except the one in Pasadena. They're deploying their mobile megapack charging units at various locations, as well as their mobile power wall units. At the end of the day, most of us invest to make money. But it's definitely a bit more enjoyable when you know that your money is going to support a company that does things like that. George Hochts, the president of Comma AI, is typically trying to talk up Comma AI and how they're on a similar level as Tesla's FSD or at least very close. But this weekend he said drove around with version 13, if you haven't tried it, it's really good, Comma AI should be there in two years. We're massively scaling up training compute and data ingestion, finally seeing improvements scale with those things. To that, Sahil said, I wonder how many heads of autonomy at OEMs intentionally ignore your existence to deny their incompetency. To that, George said LOL, yeah, how we feel about Tesla should be how Rivean and Lucid feel about us. It's that much more embarrassing for them since OpenPilot is open source. More importantly, George was asked if he still stands by his prediction that Robotaxes are 5 to 10 years away, to which he said yes, as impressive as my 30-minute drive was, the software crashed once and it made a maneuver that would have gotten us pulled over right away. If a cop was watching, there's 3-4 orders of magnitude to go to human level. One order of magnitude is usually a factor of 10, so what George is saying is that FSD would need to improve by a factor of 1000 to 10,000 before hitting human level.

今天，勤奋的Denizin在X平台上说，埃隆刚刚在帕利塞兹把Starlink送到消防员手中，然后开车经过我们。一整队Cybertrucks从PCH公路上驶过，说实话，我必须承认，每天我对这个人的敬佩之情都在增长。不仅如此，特斯拉表示他们正在为员工提供住宿支持，并解决交通和餐食问题。他们的所有超级充电站都已经重新上线，除了帕萨迪纳的那一个。他们正在各个地点部署移动的Megapack充电设备以及移动电力墙设备。很多人投资是为了赚钱，但当你知道你的钱是用来支持像这样一家公司时，那感觉会更好一些。 Comma AI的总裁乔治·霍茨通常试图宣传Comma AI，说他们的自动驾驶技术与特斯拉的FSD相当或至少非常接近。但这个周末他说他体验了第13版，如果你没试过，真的很不错，Comma AI可能在两年内达到那个水平。我们正在大规模提升计算能力和数据处理，终于看到这些地方的改进。对此，Sahil说，我想知道有多少汽车制造商的自动驾驶主管故意忽视你的存在以掩盖他们的无能。乔治回应说，哈哈，我们对特斯拉的感觉就像Rivean和Lucid对我们的感觉。因为OpenPilot是开源的，对于他们来说更加尴尬。更重要的是，有人问乔治是否仍坚持他的预测，即机器人出租车还需要5到10年，他说是的。尽管我的30分钟驾驶体验很令人印象深刻，软件崩溃了一次，而且做出了一个让我们马上会被警察拦下的动作。要达到人类水平还有3-4个数量级的提升空间。一个数量级通常是一个10倍的因子，所以乔治的意思是FSD需要提升1000到10000倍才能达到人类水平。

Again, at some point, I wish somebody would define what this human level actually was, because as many of us would agree, FSD is already better than at least some human drivers. And for what it's worth, I disagree with George on this take, but he has been building in this space now for years, so figured I would pass that along. And yes, that prediction from George has been added to the prediction tracker and yes, we will check in on this in the weeks ahead. Maybe most importantly though, note that George said he only spent 30 minutes with version 13, so one that crash he reported is certainly not the norm, and two in my opinion to make statements about the capability of a software with only 30 minutes of seat time is a bit reckless in my opinion.

再次，我希望有人能明确定义什么是“人类水平”，因为我们许多人都会同意，全自动驾驶（FSD）已经比至少一些人类司机更优秀了。至于这点，我不同意乔治的看法，但他在这个领域已经工作多年，所以我觉得应该分享一下他的观点。此外，乔治的预测已经添加到了预测跟踪器中，我们将在接下来的几周内进行跟进检查。或许最重要的是，要注意到乔治仅仅花了30分钟来测试第13版软件，所以他所报告的事故绝对不是常态。此外，我认为仅凭30分钟的使用时间就对软件的能力发表意见是一种不负责任的行为。

However, in fairness, I would say that 30 minutes is probably enough time to know at the very least that it's really good, as he said. Tesla's goat pointed out a historic moment when it comes to Tesla's software saying that there are two different FSD versions on the same Tesla software update. On software branch 2024.45.25.15, for the first time, it now has both FSD 13.2.4 for hardware 4 and 12.6.1 for hardware 3. Why might this matter? They said there's a possibility, Tesla is now able to have multiple FSD builds within the same software update depending on your autopilot computer, but later that uncertainty was erased because they confirmed it was not a typo.

然而，公平地说，我认为30分钟可能足够让我们至少知道它确实很好，如他说的那样。特斯拉的一个创新者指出了一个具有历史意义的时刻，关于特斯拉的软件更新：同一个特斯拉软件更新中包含了两个不同的FSD版本。在软件分支2024.45.25.15中，首次出现了适用于硬件4的FSD 13.2.4和适用于硬件3的12.6.1。为什么这很重要呢？他们表示，这可能意味着特斯拉现在能够根据你的自动驾驶计算机在同一个软件更新中提供多个FSD版本，但后来这种不确定性被消除了，因为他们确认这不是笔误。

So depending on how Tesla did this from a technical standpoint, they said this could mean anything from receiving FSD builds without needing a new software update to less delays given no need for branching based on model. I would further speculate there's a chance that Tesla has made some model size efficiency improvements to now enable for two different FSD versions on the same software branch. To put it another way, if this is the new trend going forward, Tesla could have one main software branch and then the FSD add on, if you will, just one way to think about it, could be on whatever that software branch is not needing its very own. And in that scenario, these FSD upgrades or add ons could come with greater frequency, not having to wait for an update for the underlying software specific to each version.

根据特斯拉的技术实现方式，他们表示这可能意味着用户在不需要软件更新的情况下就能收到FSD（完全自动驾驶）版本，也可能由于不需要根据车型进行分支而减少延迟。我进一步推测，特斯拉可能在模型尺寸效率上进行了改进，从而使两种不同的FSD版本能够在同一软件分支上运行。换句话说，如果这成为未来的新趋势，特斯拉可能会有一个主要的软件分支，然后FSD作为附加功能不需要自己的独立分支。在这种情况下，这些FSD升级或附加功能可能会更频繁地推出，而无需等待每个版本特定的基础软件更新。

In my opinion, Tesla was already rolling out FSD updates at a pretty frequent pace, but that could accelerate from here, but it is just speculation for now. A choke did say 12.6 is now rolling out generally to AI3 vehicles, and its version 12.6.1 that's finally going to some AI3, Model 3, and Model Y vehicles where previously, it had only rolled out to the Model S and X. We also have FSD13.2.4 now rolling out to some Cybertruck owners. Holmars said that Panasonic's 4680 cells are about to enter mass production, as he was told at CES. I wanted to clarify for now this higher volume 4680 production will be at Panasonic's plant in Japan.

在我看来，特斯拉已经在相当频繁地推出FSD（全自动驾驶）更新，但这种更新速度可能会从这里加快，不过这目前还只是猜测。有消息称，12.6版本现已普遍推送到AI3车辆，而12.6.1版本正在向一些AI3、Model 3和Model Y车辆推送，此前只推送到了Model S和X。此外，我们现在还有FSD13.2.4版本开始向部分Cybertruck车主推送。Holmars表示，松下的4680电池即将在CES上他所得到的信息指出，进入大规模生产阶段。我想澄清一下，目前这批量较大的4680电池生产将会在松下位于日本的工厂进行。

The $4 billion dollar factory that Panasonic is building in Kansas is going to start with 2170 type cells. However, if you were following along last year, there were rumors that Panasonic is considering an additional investment in Kansas to make 4680 cells there as well. They called that potential expansion Phase 3, and it would be largely to supply Tesla for the Cybertruck and next-gen vehicles. And because Japan does not have a free trade agreement with the United States, I believe at best 4680s from Japan if Tesla were to use them in the US market could only qualify for half of the EV tax credit. But the hope for Tesla would be by the time they need more 4680s supply, Panasonic does have 4680 lines set up in Kansas.

松下正投资40亿美元在堪萨斯建一座工厂，最初将生产2170型电池。然而，如果你去年有关注，会知道有传闻称松下正在考虑在堪萨斯进行额外投资，以在那里生产4680型电池。他们将这一潜在扩展称为第三阶段，主要是为了为特斯拉的Cybertruck和下一代车辆提供电池。而由于日本和美国之间没有自由贸易协议，我认为如果特斯拉使用从日本进口的4680电池在美国市场销售，这些电池最多只能获得一半的电动车税收优惠。但特斯拉的希望是，在它们需要更多4680电池供应时，松下已经在堪萨斯建立起4680的生产线。

Because remember, even if the $7,500 tax credit goes away, the production tax credit is likely to stay. Ensure Tesla would not be a direct beneficiary of 4680 cells made by Panasonic in the US. I'm just saying my argument here is that Panasonic will have reasons to expand its production in the US, including 4680s. Here's a photo of the new Model Y out in the wild in China. I just wanted to say, after watching the world react to this over the weekend, I decided to wait until we get the official specs for the North American variant rather than trying to deduce from how Tesla is doing things around the world.

请记住，即使7500美元的税收抵免取消，生产税收抵免可能仍会保留。确保特斯拉不会直接从松下在美国制造的4680电池中受益。我的观点是，松下有理由在美国扩大生产，包括4680电池。这里有一张在中国出现的新款Model Y的照片。我想说的是，看了上周末全球对这款车的反应后，我决定等到官方公布北美版本的具体参数，而不是通过推测特斯拉在世界其他地方的做法来下结论。

We should have the official pricing and specs, range, all of that good stuff here in the next few weeks. I did want to add, don't forget, much of the improvements go beyond the spec upgrades and won't be understood until you're in the vehicle, preferably driving it. The overall refinement, build quality, material improvements, suspension feel, NVH advances, etc. won't show up in the basic specs that everybody likes to form their judgments on. So let's make sure the North American variant is the same. Get those official specs, yes, but then try to get in one of these vehicles as soon as possible before drawing final conclusions.

我们应该会在接下来的几周内获得官方定价和规格、续航等所有这些好信息。我想提醒一下，很多改进超出了规格的升级，只有在车里，最好是驾车时，你才能真正感受到。总体的精细度、制造质量、材料改进、悬架感觉、噪声和振动抑制等，这些都不会体现在基本规格中，而这些基本规格往往是大家用来判断的依据。所以，我们要确保北美版本保持一致。是的，要获取那些官方规格，但在下结论之前，尽量尽快体验一下这些车辆。

And the word is that Gigabrelin is going to start producing the new Model Y tomorrow, which is Tuesday, January 14th. Which in my opinion is a great sign for what's to come for free month in Austin. This one is squarely in the rumor category, but a Chinese blogger said that Tesla received 50,000 orders for the Model Y on the day that they launched Project Junipert in China. Tesla has over 300 stores in China and at one of them, they received nearly 300 orders on that one day. But for what it's worth, this blogger was right about when this vehicle was going to be launched in China. A Tesla salesperson revealed to Chinese media that the number of orders on that day exploded. And the outgoing Model Y became China's best-selling car for all of 2024, not just best-selling EV, but the best-selling car of any type. Tesla sold over 480,300 Model Y's in 2024 in China. That number was up just over 5% from 2023. Tesla's VP in China has been promoting Tesla's safety, highlighting that their brand has not been recalled in over 6 years. But just note, the BYD Chin Plus was only 284 units behind in the number 2 spot. For my Canadians, unfortunately Tesla has raised the price of the outgoing Model Y by $1000, so now not even the base variant qualifies for the iZev credit. Tesla also up to the price of the Model 3. If there's a silver lining here, it's that the iZev program in Canada was rapidly running out of funds anyway.

根据传闻，Gigabrelin 公司计划明天，也就是1月14日星期二，开始生产新的 Model Y。在我看来，这是奥斯汀未来几个月会有好消息的一个很好的迹象。 这则消息属于传闻类，但有一位中国博主说，特斯拉在中国发布“Juniper项目”当日就获得了5万份 Model Y 的订单。特斯拉在中国有超过300家门店，其中一家在那天就收到了将近300份订单。值得注意的是，这位博主之前关于这款车将在中国推出的预测是准确的。 一位特斯拉的销售员向中国媒体透露，那天的订单数量激增，而现款 Model Y 成为了2024年中国最畅销的汽车，不仅是最畅销的电动车，而且是所有类型汽车中的销量冠军。2024年，特斯拉在中国销售了超过48万3000辆 Model Y，这一数字比2023年增长了5%以上。 特斯拉中国区的副总裁一直在宣传特斯拉的安全性，强调特斯拉的车型已经超过6年没有被召回。然而值得注意的是，排名第二的比亚迪秦 Plus 仅仅比 Model Y 少卖了284辆。 对于加拿大的消费者来说，不幸的是，特斯拉把现款 Model Y 的价格提高了1000加元，因此即便是基础款也不再符合 iZev 的抵税资格。特斯拉同时还提高了 Model 3 的价格。不过，从积极的方面看，反正加拿大的 iZev 项目资金也快用完了。

And for the few thousand of you that watched from the Philippines, if you ordered a Model Y, you'll automatically be upgraded to the new Juniper Model when deliveries start. The word is, Model 3 deliveries are set to start in the Philippines this month. And if you ordered the Deep Blue Metallic outgoing color, you'll automatically be upgraded to the new Glacier Blue exterior for free. As you would expect for Tesla opening up into a new market, a sales person at a Tesla store in the region said that demand for Tesla vehicles is excellent. On that note, Tesla achieved a pretty serious milestone last year as it beat Audi in overall global sales for the first time. Last year, Audi sold 1.67 million vehicles down 12% from 2023. As we've noted, they've been struggling with intensifying competition in Europe and China and weak demand for their EVs. So yes, Tesla has jumped Audi as they delivered 1.79 million vehicles in 2024. Audi's deliveries of fully electric vehicles also declined 8% to around 164,000. Audi's also planning to close a site in Brussels because of poor demand for the electric Q8 e-tron. Another brand for Tesla to take down in a future year would be Mercedes. In 2024, Mercedes sold 2.4 million vehicles around the world. Now, if Mercedes were to be flat for 2025, Tesla would need roughly 35% sales growth to eclipse Mercedes in 2025. Just to clarify, on one of Tesla's recent recalls, part of it was actually a physical upgrade, not OTA. On a small percentage of affected vehicles upon a vehicle power-up, a reverse current may cause a shorting failure on the car computer board, resulting in the loss of rear-view camera functionality. But in some cases, if an affected vehicle experienced the shorting failure condition, then Tesla will replace the vehicle's car computer at no cost to the customer.

翻译成中文并简化如下： 对于在菲律宾观看的几千位观众，如果您订购了Model Y，交付时会自动升级为新的Juniper Model。据悉，Model 3的交付将在本月开始。如果您订购了即将停产的深蓝色，您将免费自动升级为新的冰川蓝。随着特斯拉在新市场的推出，地区的一位特斯拉销售人员表示，对特斯拉的需求非常强劲。 值得一提的是，特斯拉去年取得了重大里程碑，首次在全球销量上超过奥迪。去年，奥迪销量为167万辆，同比下降12%。他们在欧洲和中国面对激烈竞争，电动车需求疲软。特斯拉去年交付了179万辆，超过奥迪。奥迪的纯电动车交付量也下降了8%，约为16.4万辆。由于电动Q8 e-tron需求不佳，奥迪还计划关闭布鲁塞尔的一处工厂。接下来，特斯拉可能挑战的品牌是奔驰。2024年，奔驰全球销量为240万辆。如果奔驰在2025年持平，特斯拉需要35%的销量增长才能超越奔驰。 关于特斯拉近期的召回，有一部分是实际的硬件升级，而不是OTA。在一小部分受影响的车辆中，启动时可能发生反向电流，导致车载电脑板短路，失去后视摄像头功能。如果出现这种故障，特斯拉将免费更换车辆的车载电脑。

Norway is well on its way to achieving the milestone of 100% of new car sales being electric. And listen to what an executive at a car dealership over there said, we think it's wrong to advise a customer coming in here today to buy an ice car because the future is electric. I think many here would agree that is not at all the mindset of most dealerships here in America. But hopefully we do get there one day, and don't forget, this process was like three decades long in Norway. They started little by little, taxing internal combustion cars more and more, while simultaneously exempting EVs from certain taxes. But as far as I can tell, one thing most people don't talk about is how Norway has had long-term EV policies so the entire industry has been able to plan accordingly.

挪威正稳步迈向实现新车销售100%为电动车的目标。听听那边一家汽车经销商的高管怎么说的：“我们认为今天来这里的顾客购买内燃机汽车是错误的建议，因为未来是电动的。” 我想这里的许多人都会同意，这是与美国大多数经销商的心态截然不同的。但希望有一天我们也能达到这样的目标，不要忘记，这个过程在挪威用了大约三十年。他们逐步开始，对内燃机汽车征收更多的税，同时免除电动车的一些税务。然而，据我所知，大多数人没有谈到的是，挪威拥有长期的电动车政策，使整个行业能够相应地进行规划。

And one thing most people don't mention about the Norway story is that as far as I can tell, they have had long-term predictable EV policies in place so the industry has been able to plan accordingly. Again, at least so far, that scenario is pretty foreign to the American auto industry. Right now in America, EV policies are doing their best to yo-yo impressions. In another beat the buzzer scenario, the Department of Transportation announced $635 million in EV charging, but part of that is for other clean transportation. The money will be deployed across 27 states, four tribal areas, and the District of Columbia. More than three dozen projects expanding community EV charging will get 368 million, and then 268 million will go towards seven corridor fast charging projects.

很多人没有提到的是，关于挪威的故事，据我所知，他们已经制定了长期可预测的电动车（EV）政策，这使得行业能够相应地进行规划。相较之下，这种情况对美国汽车行业来说还相当陌生。目前在美国，电动车政策变动起伏不定。近期，交通部宣布投资6.35亿美元用于电动车充电设施，但其中一部分资金还将用于其他清洁交通项目。资金将分配到27个州、四个部落地区和华盛顿特区。超过三十个扩展社区电动车充电的项目将获得3.68亿美元，而另外2.68亿美元将用于七个公路快速充电项目。

But these are the ones deploying alternative fueling capabilities, largely hydrogen. In total, the grants will help install more than 11,500 EV charging ports and hydrogen and natural gas fueling infrastructure. Doing some digging, it turns out there will be 42 of these community building EV charger projects. So taking the amount allocated for those 42 projects turns out to about $8,761,000 per project. Or you can do that same 368 million divided by the 11,500 total ports it's supposed to support. Which is $32,000, which would be reasonable, but we don't really know the breakdown between level two chargers and things that are more online with superchargers. I run those numbers because yet again, Tesla has been snubbed in this round of EV charger funding. 49 applicants in total have been selected to receive this money and Tesla's application for about $100 million to fund a semi charging corridor was once again passed over.

但是，这些公司主要在部署替代燃料能力，特别是氢能。总的来说，这些补助将帮助安装超过11,500个电动车充电接口以及氢气和天然气的加注基础设施。经过一些调查，发现将会有42个这样的社区建设电动车充电项目。因此，分配给这42个项目的总金额平均下来，每个项目大约为876.1万美元。或者，你可以将这3.68亿美元除以计划支持的11,500个充电接口，结果是每个接口32,000美元，这似乎合理，但我们并不清楚二级充电器和超级充电器之间的具体分配比例。我核算这些数字是因为特斯拉在这轮电动车充电站资金分配中再次被忽视。共有49个申请者被选中获得这些资金，而特斯拉申请的大约1亿美元，用于建设半挂车充电走廊的提议再次被拒绝。

Tesla's partner on the project, California's South Coast Air Quality Management District, confirmed that the partnership also applied for this round of funding. Initially, Tesla was hoping to get that $100 million and use $24 million of its own money to build a nine electric semi charging station between its former HQ in Northern California and the southern border of Texas. Each of those stations was supposed to be equipped with 8 750kW chargers for the Tesla Semi and four other chargers that would be open to other electric trucks. The project was officially called Transport Electrification supporting semis operating in Arizona, California, Texas or Tesseract. Tesla's former VP, Roan Patel said last year that some of the sites along this 1800 mile planned route were no brainers, even without funding.

特斯拉的合作伙伴——加利福尼亚南海岸空气质量管理区，确认该合作关系也申请了这一轮的资金。起初，特斯拉希望获得这笔1亿美元的资金，并计划使用2400万美元自有资金，在其位于北加州的前总部和德克萨斯州南部边境之间建造九个电动卡车充电站。每个充电站预计配备8个750千瓦的充电器，专门为特斯拉电动卡车服务，另有四个充电器对其他电动卡车开放。这个项目正式名为“运输电气化”，支持在亚利桑那州、加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州或特塞拉克地区运营的电动卡车。特斯拉前副总裁Roan Patel去年表示，即使没有资金支持，该计划总路线长1800英里的其中一些地点也是显而易见的选择。

Some are making the argument Tesla was left out of the funding because of the perceived uncertainty around Tesla's supercharger program after the 10% layoffs earlier last year. For what it's worth, there could be a future funding round here but as for a lot of things right now we have to wait and see what Trump chooses to do. So look, does Tesla need $100 million to succeed? Obviously not. But as we've highlighted in the past, it's just the principle when you talk about efficiency and government spending, the fact that you don't want to give Tesla money to accelerate what they're already doing just doesn't make any sense if you really want the best and most reliable EV chargers on the market. Especially for an industry that's building out from its infancy in the EV semi market.

有些人认为，特斯拉未能获得资金是因为去年早些时候的10%裁员后，人们对特斯拉超级充电站计划的不确定性感到担忧。值得一提的是，未来可能会有新的融资机会，但目前我们只能等待，看看特朗普会作何选择。特斯拉需要1亿美元才能成功吗？显然不是。但正如我们之前强调的，如果你真的想要市场上最好、最可靠的电动汽车充电站，那么在谈到效率和政府支出时，不为特斯拉提供资金来加速他们已经在做的事情是毫无意义的。尤其是在电动汽车货车市场这个刚起步的行业里。

But the truth is, we can't be naive and expect the Biden administration to do the right thing after all of the support that Elon threw behind Trump. And look, I'm not at all justifying that decision, I'm just saying it's the world that we live in right now. Responding to this news of yet another Tesla snub, Elon just said, Si. I'll admit, it'll be tough to draw any conclusions from this news bit but I think it's important to watch what lithium prices are doing. The reason I say it's difficult to draw conclusions is because in most cases we don't have any idea how the contracts for specific companies in the space are actually structured. I believe on a conference call a few years ago, Tesla said at the time that only less than 10% of their lithium purchases were on the spot market. Meaning 90% plus of Tesla's lithium deals are done on long term contracts, which obviously insulates Tesla from many of these price fluctuations. But with that said, lithium prices are expected to stabilize in 2025 after two years of steep declines. From the peak in November 2022, lithium prices are down 86%. But now the global lithium supply glut is predicted to shrink by half. Thus, when it comes to spot market pricing, a battery analyst said we expect to see a price recovery for lithium in 2025, as the curtailment seen in 2024 and the possibility of further curtailments will significantly reduce the market surplus. In this case, curtailments are limiting production. As always, the context here matters. If you look at a chart dating back to 2018, you can see that right now we're effectively back to pre-COVID levels. And so you know, this is the pricing in Chinese Yuan.

事实是，我们不能天真地指望拜登政府在马斯克对特朗普的支持之后会做出正确的举动。我要说明的是，我并不是在为这个决定辩解，我只是说这是我们目前面临的现实。在得知特斯拉又遭到冷遇的消息后，马斯克仅仅回应了"是的"。我承认，从这一新闻中得出任何结论并不容易，但我认为关注锂价走势是很重要的。我之所以说难以得出结论，是因为在大多数情况下，我们并不了解这一领域特定公司合同的具体结构。特斯拉几年前的一次电话会议中提到，当时只有不到10%的锂采购是在现货市场进行的。这意味着特斯拉90%以上的锂交易都是通过长期合同完成的，这显然保护特斯拉免受许多价格波动的影响。不过，话虽如此，预计锂价将在经历两年的大幅下降后于2025年趋于稳定。从2022年11月的峰值算起，锂价已下降了86%。但现在预计全球锂供应过剩将缩减一半。因此，就现货市场定价而言，一位电池分析师表示，我们预计锂价将在2025年开始回升，因为2024年看到的限产以及未来可能的继续限产将大大减少市场过剩。在这里，限产是指限制生产。情况的背景始终重要，如果查看从2018年至今的图表，可以看到我们现在实际上已经回到了疫情前的水平。而且这是以中国人民币为单位的定价。

Another very important long-term topic, not many are covering, is the current battle over LFP technology between China and the US, and really the rest of the world. Last week, China's Ministry of Commerce proposed a rule to restrict Chinese companies from exporting equipment or know-how to make the advanced LFP batteries used by Tesla and Chinese automakers. And if that rule is finalized, Western battery makers could be relegated to manufacturing second-rate LFP batteries. Not only that, but the US Department of Defense recently blacklisted China's CATL. They actually designated it as an arm of China's military, to which CATL responded by denying that's the case. Hopefully, right now, some of you are remembering that last year Tesla bought older equipment from CATL to make LFP cells in Nevada. Now yes, this change from China is still just a proposal, so another thing we're going to have to wait and see how Trump chooses to handle. And, I think you all know, it's not just Tesla relying heavily on LFP battery tech, it's really everyone in the auto industry that's making or trying to make affordable EVs.

另一个非常重要但长期以来并未被广泛讨论的话题是中国和美国——实际上是中国与世界其他国家——之间当前围绕LFP技术的竞争。上周，中国商务部提议对中国公司出口用于制造特斯拉和中国汽车制造商所用先进LFP电池的设备或技术进行限制。如果这一规定最终确定，西方电池制造商可能只能生产低等级的LFP电池。不仅如此，美国国防部最近还将中国的宁德时代（CATL）列入黑名单，认为其是中国军方的一个分支，而宁德时代对此表示否认。希望大家还记得，去年特斯拉从宁德时代购买了一些旧设备，用于在内华达州生产LFP电池。目前，中国的这一变化仍然只是一个提案，我们还需要观望特朗普将如何应对。我想大家都知道，不仅仅是特斯拉在大力依赖LFP电池技术，实际上整个汽车行业中致力于制造或正在尝试制造经济实惠电动车的公司都是如此。

It's speculation for now, but even if the rule is finalized, CATL, BYD, and others could still sell their best batteries to Western companies, but the Chinese companies would be barred from offering the know-how for doing so to non-Chinese companies. It sounds like non-Chinese companies may be able to make older versions of LFP tech just not the latest and greatest coming from China. One analyst is expecting companies like Tesla to simply buy their LFP from CATL, even if politicians scream about the alleged links to the Chinese military. So, unless things go south, the concern here may not be that Tesla can't get access to LFP cells, it's that over the next few years Tesla wouldn't have the ability to make its own LFP cells in-house, vertically integrating as I'm sure they would like to do. This one is quite brutal. A Dutch civil service pension fund ABP, one of the biggest funds in the world, has sold its investments in Tesla. It sold its 2.8 million shares of Tesla because it was unhappy about Elon's compensation plan and poor working conditions at the company. It should come as no surprise then that the fund voted against Elon's pay package last June. This is a perfect example of why more things should be politics aside because September of last year Tesla stock price was hovering around $228 a share. AKA, this pension fund sold right before the major run up. So, basically thanks to mis and disinformation, the company sold about $650 million of Tesla stock at a terrible time. Replying to that news, Elon said, so they lost half a billion dollars and failed their constituents. Yes, yes they did.

目前这只是猜测，但即使这项规定最终被确定下来，像CATL（宁德时代）、比亚迪等公司仍然可以向西方公司出售他们最好的电池，只是这些中国公司将被禁止向非中国公司提供相关技术诀窍。听起来非中国公司可能可以制造较老版本的磷酸铁锂（LFP）技术，但无法制造来自中国的最新技术。一位分析师预计，像特斯拉这样的公司可能会直接从CATL购买他们的LFP电池，即便政治家对所谓的与中国军方的联系大喊大叫。因此，除非情况急剧恶化，否则这里的担忧或许不是特斯拉无法获得LFP电池，而是在未来几年内，特斯拉可能无法自行生产LFP电池，实现垂直整合，这肯定是他们希望做到的。而这一情况相当残酷。荷兰公务员养老金基金ABP，作为世界上最大基金之一，已经卖掉了其在特斯拉的投资。由于对埃隆·马斯克的薪酬计划和公司糟糕的工作条件感到不满，该基金出售了其持有的280万股特斯拉股票。因此，该基金在去年六月对埃隆的薪酬方案投了反对票也就不足为奇了。这完美地诠释了为什么某些事情不应该受到政治的左右，因为在去年九月，特斯拉的股价在每股228美元左右，也就是说，该养老金基金在股价大幅上涨前不久就卖出持股。归根结底，由于错误和误导性的信息，该基金在一个极其糟糕的时机卖出了约6.5亿美元的特斯拉股票。对此消息，埃隆回应说，他们损失了5亿美元，并且辜负了他们的客户。是的，的确如此。

Someone shared an invoice with Gregor Truck and it turns out the official Cybertruck off-road light bar cost $2,500 from Tesla, which at the very least now makes the foundation package Tesla was offering a bit more attractive. Porsche's global sales for 2024 were down 3% year over year. Even worse though, when it comes to the Taycon that they spent plenty of time refreshing on their own, it sold just 20,800 units down 49% year over year. Porsche's also planning to lay off 30% of its workforce in China. The Nvidia account posted the Biden administration's AI diffusion rule will stifle innovation and undermine America's global tech leadership, restricting access to mainstream computing, risks derailing AI progress for industries at home and abroad. As of today, this AI diffusion rule is an interim final rule which just means it's currently enforced but it may be subject to modifications based on feedback. Nvidia's VP of government affairs called this one a sweeping overreach but of course from the Biden administration's perspective, but in summary the new rule has three parts, one being more export controls on chips, two more controls on the specific model weights on some of the most advanced models, and third the Bureau of Industry and Security will impose security conditions to safeguard the storage of the most advanced models. I'm not going into detail here because with the Trump transition a week from now, yet again we don't really know how this is going to play out. If you're impatient and want to learn more about this rule before Trump takes office, I'll have a link to the official release below. And here's part of Nvidia's official statement in response. The first Trump administration laid the foundation for America's current strength and success in AI. In its last days in office, the Biden administration seeks to undermine America's leadership with a 200 plus page regulatory morass drafted in secret and without proper legislative review. A morass is basically a difficult situation to get out of. And Nvidia said while cloaked in the guise of an anti-China measure, these rules would do nothing to enhance US security. This rule, however, is not enforceable for 120 days. Obviously, this will be one to keep an eye on, as we know Tesla is increasingly an AI company, so this will have direct impacts not only on Nvidia, but Tesla as well. Ray for Tesla reported the Beijing Municipal People's Congress recently passed the Beijing Autonomous Driving Vehicle Regulations. They're set to go into effect on April 1st, 2025. These regulations for the first time outlined specific rules for the use of level three driving and higher level private vehicles on public roads. In response to this, he said regulatory approval for FSD likely to happen soon. Morgan Stanley put out a new Tesla price target of $430 per share as a base case, but they said ultimately Tesla could double to $800 per share. That's because Tesla's position in semi-autonomous electric robots could allow the company to convert car owners into subscribers generating highly recurring revenue. But here's why I'm sharing this. Jonas is saying they're expecting Tesla to deploy 7.5 million autonomous vehicles by 2040. Let's just be ultra conservative here and assume that none of Tesla's current vehicle fleet will be robot taxis. We know that's not the case, but just stick with me. According to Morgan Stanley, from that basis from here forward 7.5 million over the next 15 years is only 500,000 robot taxis deployed per year over the next 15 years. All I'll say with cybercab set to enter production in 2026 and the goal to be 2 to 4 million units of just the cybercab alone and adding in a portion of Tesla's existing fleet that will of course be robot taxi capable in the future. I think even Morgan Stanley's bull case of 12 million by 2040 is going to be far too low.

有人与Gregor Truck分享了一张发票，结果发现，特斯拉的官方越野灯条售价为2,500美元，这让特斯拉提供的基础包更具吸引力。保时捷2024年的全球销售量同比下降了3%。更糟糕的是，他们花了很多时间改进的Taycan，只售出了20,800辆，同比下降49%。保时捷还计划在中国裁减30%的员工。 英伟达的官方账号发布信息称，拜登政府的AI传播规则将扼杀创新，削弱美国在全球科技领域的领导地位，限制主流计算的访问可能会阻碍国内外行业的AI进展。截至目前，这一AI传播规则是一个临时最终规则，这意味着目前已被执行，但可能会根据反馈进行修改。英伟达的政府事务副总裁称这是一个过度扩张，但拜登政府的目的是加强国家安全。新规则包括三个部分：一是对芯片的更多出口管制；二是对最先进的一些模型的特定模型权重进行更多控制；三是工业与安全局将对最先进模型的存储施加安全条件。 由于特朗普即将上任，我们不太清楚此规则将如何发展。如果你迫不及待想了解更多内容，我会附上官方发布的链接。英伟达的官方声明部分回应指出，特朗普政府的首期奠定了美国在AI领域的当前实力和成就，而拜登政府在离任前寻求削弱这一领导地位，推出了200多页的规章，但并未经过适当的立法审查。尽管这些规则被冠以反华措施的外衣，但英伟达认为它们并不能增强美国的安全。不过，此规则在120天内是不可执行的。显然，这值得关注，因为特斯拉越来越像一家AI公司，这将直接影响到英伟达和特斯拉。 Ray for Tesla报道称，北京市人民代表大会最近通过了《北京市自动驾驶车辆管理条例》，将于2025年4月1日生效。这些法规首次规定了三级及更高级私人车辆在公共道路上的使用规则。对此，他表示，完全自动驾驶(FSD)的监管批准可能很快实现。 摩根士丹利给出特斯拉的新目标股价为每股430美元，但他们表示最终特斯拉股价可能翻倍至800美元。因为特斯拉在半自动电动机器人领域的地位可能让公司将车主转化为用户，产生高且可持续的收入。不过，我分享这个的原因是，Jonas预计特斯拉将在2040年前部署750万台自动驾驶汽车。我们不妨保守地假设特斯拉现有车队中没有车辆会成为机器人出租车。尽管这不符合实际，但请跟我一起假设。根据摩根士丹利，未来每年部署的500,000台机器人出租车，从现在起的15年中，总计750万台机器人出租车。考虑到cybercab计划在2026年开始生产，目标仅cybercab就达到200万到400万辆，加上特斯拉现有部分车队未来会具备机器人出租车能力，我认为即便是摩根士丹利的强势预测，到2040年总计1200万台也会太低。

Kia's timeline for supercharger access has been delayed from January 15th to spring 2025. A PR person said a delay has occurred and we're working with the appropriate teams to confirm new availability and dates. Tesla stock closed the day at $403.31 up 2.17%. While the NASDAQ was down 0.3%, the volume was 25% below the average. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

起亚接入超级充电桩的时间表从原定的1月15日推迟到2025年春季。一位公关人员表示，出现了延迟，我们正在与相关团队合作确认新的可用日期。特斯拉股价当天收于403.31美元，上涨2.17%。虽然纳斯达克指数下跌了0.3%，但成交量比平均水平低25%。希望大家有个美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。可以在下面的链接找到我，非常感谢所有Patreon支持者的支持。