The EV Sales Turnaround / Robotaxi Regulation Changes / 4680 Update ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. There are some articles out there today talking about an inflection in overall EV sales, but I think some context is needed for these stories. Kelly Blue Book said November EV sales were 13.6% higher than the previous November and about 8.5% of the new cars Americans bought last month were fully electric. They said that EV over supply problem has largely disappeared, dealers ended November with a 93 day supply of EVs to sell, not far off from their 85 day supply of all types of cars. EV inventory declined 13.8% in November alone.

欢迎来到"Electrified"，我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。今天，有一些文章在讨论电动车整体销售的拐点，但我认为这些报道需要一些背景信息。据凯利蓝皮书（Kelly Blue Book）称，今年11月的电动车销量比去年同期提高了13.6%，而上个月美国人购买的新车中大约有8.5%是纯电动车。报道称，电动车供过于求的问题基本上已经消失，经销商在11月底手上有93天的电动车库存，和所有车型的85天供应量相差不远。仅在11月，电动车库存就减少了13.8%。

So that 8.5% figure for November may have been higher than October, but the EV share of sales in quarter three in the US was 8.9%, the highest level recorded. That just means we've really been stuck in that 8-9% full EV adoption range for a majority of 2024. And frankly, we should see a spike in EV sales for quarter four because many Americans, if they're paying attention, should be concerned that the EV tax credit will go away at some point next year.

所以，11月的8.5%数值可能高于10月，但在美国第三季度中，电动车的销售份额达到了8.9%，是有记录以来的最高水平。这表示在2024年大多数时间里，我们实际上维持在8-9%的全面电动车采用范围内。而且坦率地说，我们应该看到在第四季度电动车销售会有一个上涨，因为如果许多美国人关注的话，他们应该担心明年某个时候电动车税收抵免会取消。

On that note, just a heads up, if some vehicles do lose the tax credit come January 1st, it may only be temporary and for a matter of weeks. Reason being, every year new restrictions and requirements come into play, so some of these automakers need time to actually prove that their vehicles should still qualify for the full credit. But other companies like Kia have said they're preparing to scale back production of the EV 9 because the car will not qualify for the full credit as of January 1st.

关于这一点，需要提醒的是，如果有些车辆在明年1月1日失去税收抵免，可能只是暂时的，可能只会持续几周。原因是，每年都会有新的限制和要求出台，因此一些汽车制造商需要时间来证明他们的车辆依然符合全额抵免的资格。但像起亚这样的公司已经表示，他们准备减少EV 9的生产，因为这款车从明年1月1日起将不再符合全额税收抵免的条件。

In their case though, when their battery factory in Georgia comes online, they're expecting that vehicle to re-qualify. There are some positive trends for full EVs across Europe as well. This chart is from AJ on X. For us though, just focus on these two straight dotted lines, this one right here and this one right here, creating this triangle where you see this green arrow pointing up. The bottom line is basically just the trend line for the percentage of BEV adoption dating back to the beginning of 2023 and projected out to the end of 2025. That extrapolation puts us at about 18% EV adoption.

在他们的情况下，当位于乔治亚州的电池工厂投产后，他们预计该车型将重新获得资格。在欧洲，纯电动车（EV）也有一些积极的趋势。这张图表来自X平台上的AJ。不过，对我们来说，只需关注这两条直线，就像这里和这里的这两条线，形成了一个三角形，你会看到绿色箭头向上指着。简单来说，这基本上是从2023年初到2025年底的电动汽车采用率趋势线。根据这一推测，电动汽车采用率大约为18%。

But if you draw a trend line for the same data and you start at the beginning of 2024, you'll see this trend line that takes us up well over 24% at the end of 2025. However, the context I want to add here, the trend line for 2024 is clearly starting at a local low. That time just happened to be the point at which BEV sales were at the lowest across the EU at about 12%. So if you start a trend line from there, of course you're going to have a positive result and a bigger increase will be shown. Are there some encouraging signs? Sure, but with all of the context, incentives going away, legacy OEMs pulling back from EV production, I just want people to be prepared, especially in the US for a challenging year for full EV sales in 2025, again, if the EV tax credit does go away.

如果你为同样的数据画一条趋势线，并从2024年初开始，你会发现到2025年底，这条趋势线显示我们的增长超过了24%。然而，我想补充一下背景，2024年的趋势线显然是从一个局部低点开始的。那时恰好是整个欧盟的电动汽车（BEV）销量处于最低点，约为12%。所以如果从那里开始画趋势线，当然会有正面的结果，显示出更大的增长。有一些鼓舞人心的迹象吗？当然有，但考虑到所有的背景因素，比如补贴取消，传统汽车制造商减少电动汽车生产，我希望大家有所准备，特别是在美国，在2025年可能会面临电动汽车销量的艰难一年，尤其是如果电动汽车税收抵免取消的话。

This FSD13 video is the definition of the username and edge case. They set up a dead end trap and watch what the vehicle does. Holy moly bro. Oh my god. Oh, it's going to hit the. Oh dude, it's doing amazing. Bro, this is. Do you want to do multiple times? So, ability to get unstuck? Check. But I have found a safety critical situation in this video of version 13. I'm highlighting this one specifically because again, it seems like the problem is because of the map data. You can't do this. I'm not sure. If you didn't see it the first time, if you look on the right, the map data is telling it that the vehicle can turn left at this intersection. But if it were to rely on the cameras looking straight ahead, you see this do not enter sign right here. And this lane right here, that version 13 thinks it can use, is not correct, because that's only for vehicles coming from the right.

这段关于FSD13的视频展示了用户名和极端案例的定义。他们设置了一个死胡同陷阱，看车辆会怎么做。天哪，兄弟。哦，我的天。哦，车要撞上了。哦，老兄，它的表现真棒。兄弟，你想多做几次吗？嗯，车子脱困的能力没问题。但是我在这个版本13的视频中发现了一个安全关键情况。我特别强调这个问题，因为似乎它是由于地图数据造成的。你不能这样做。我不确定。如果你第一次没看到，看看右边，地图数据显示车辆可以在这个交叉路口左转。但如果依赖摄像头直视的话，你会看到“禁止进入”的标志就在这边。而这个版本13认为可以使用的车道实际上是不对的，因为这车道是专门给从右边来的车辆使用的。

I'm pretty sure the question I'm going to submit for say for Q4 is going to be about Tesla's plans for the map data. Kalina, who works on AI branches at Tesla, said we've been working hard to make sure everyone has a wonderful Christmas with both version 13 and the holiday release. It sounds like internally the goal at Tesla is to have both delivered to everybody by Christmas.

我很确定我在第四季度要提交的问题会与特斯拉的地图数据计划有关。Kalina 是在特斯拉从事人工智能部门的员工，她说我们一直在努力工作，确保大家能过一个美好的圣诞节，推出第13版和假日版本。听起来特斯拉内部的目标是希望在圣诞节前将这两个版本交付给每个人。

Understandably, many of you were a bit triggered the last time I brought up the fact that in the United States, internet service providers have been allowed to sell customer data to third parties since 2017. Back then, Congress passed a resolution to eliminate FCC privacy rules that would have banned the practice. So before 17, ISPs would have needed your permission to go ahead and sell your personal data in your browser history. But with a stroke of a pen, Congress said, nope, we don't need that anymore. Which yes means now your ISPs can legally sell your web browsing history, your app usage data, real time location information, and much of your personal information.

可以理解的是，上次我提到在美国，自2017年以来，互联网服务提供商被允许向第三方出售客户数据时，许多人感到有些触动。当时，国会通过了一项决议，取消了FCC制定的原本会禁止这种行为的隐私规则。因此，在2017年之前，网络服务提供商需要得到您的许可才能出售您的浏览历史等个人数据。但随着国会的一纸决议，这种许可就不再需要。这就意味着，现在您的互联网服务提供商可以合法地出售您的网页浏览历史、应用使用数据、实时位置信息以及大量个人信息。

They're not just doing this to get kickbacks or something, they're actually monetizing this, selling that data to advertisers, marketers, or other third parties. So yeah, if you want to protect your family from this nonsense, all you need to do is sign up for Surfshark VPN, the sponsor of this video. Surfshark encrypts all of your online activity and masks your real IP address so no one, not even your ISP, can track your data. Surfshark offers a lot more like CleanWeb, which removes annoying ads and one account can be used on an unlimited number of family devices. Just head to surfshark.com slash electrified for four extra months of Surfshark at an unbeatable holiday price. This pricing is for a limited time, so if you've been on the fence all year, now would be your time. The link is below.

他们这样做不仅仅是为了拿回扣或什么的，他们实际上是在将这些数据货币化，卖给广告商、营销人员或其他第三方。所以，是的，如果你想保护你的家人免受这些麻烦，只需要注册Surfshark VPN，这是本视频的赞助商。Surfshark会加密你所有的在线活动，并隐藏你的真实IP地址，这样就没有人，包括你的互联网服务提供商，能够追踪你的数据。Surfshark提供更多服务，比如CleanWeb，可以去除烦人的广告，而且一个账号可以在无限数量的家庭设备上使用。只需访问surfshark.com/electrified，即可以无与伦比的假期价格多获得四个月的Surfshark服务。这个价格是限时提供的，所以如果你一直举棋不定，现在是行动的好时机。链接在下面。

Joe Tettmyer said Giga Texas has a whole new mezzanine floor constructed above the main entrance. It has double the floor space available and is big enough for a whole new production line. Just also happens a ton of new production equipment is staged across the highway waiting for installation. I just wanted to add I've seen a lot of people saying this is for the new more affordable Tesla, but we have to remember Tesla told us those will be on existing manufacturing lines. Which means yes, there's at least a chance Tesla is doing some very early work for cyber cab production. The cyber cab is set to be a revolution again in manufacturing. The Tesla team has been very excited about it, but given how new it is, it's going to take some time for Tesla to figure that out. Joe also said Giga Texas 4680 production line expansion work is nearly completed going up to eight lines from the original four.

乔·特特迈尔表示，得州超级工厂（Giga Texas）在正门上方建造了一个全新的夹层楼。这增加了一倍的可用楼层空间，足够容纳一条全新的生产线。此外，恰好有大量新的生产设备已经在公路对面准备好等待安装。我想补充的是，我看到很多人说这可能是为了新的、更实惠的特斯拉车型，但我们必须记住，特斯拉曾表示这些新车型将使用现有的生产线。因此，至少有可能特斯拉正在为“网络出租车”（Cyber Cab）进行一些非常早期的工作。“网络出租车”在制造业中被设定为再次引起革命。特斯拉团队对此非常兴奋，但由于这是一个全新的项目，特斯拉会需要一些时间来弄清楚这些细节。乔还提到，得州超级工厂的4680电池生产线扩建工作接近完成，从最初的四条扩展到八条。

And he said great sign for battery production at Giga Texas in 2025. And remember earlier this year Tesla said they were on track for the production launch with the dry cathode in quarter four. And that's the step that would enable cell cost to be significantly below available alternatives, which was the original goal of the 4680 program. And if we read the tea leaves, remember Lars said Tesla is not just going to randomly build 4680s unless they have a place to put them. He said, so we're going to make sure we're prudent about that. Plus earlier this year, Tesla said the 4680 production ramp was ahead of the ramp of the cyber truck. And the goal was to keep it that way, not only for cyber truck, but for our future vehicle programs. As far as we can tell, the cyber truck production rate is somewhat stuck around that 1000 number per week. But the evidence is telling us that Tesla is continuing to build out the 4680 production lines. Tesla said it wouldn't just race to make 4680s for the fun of it. They need somewhere to go. So could this extra production be in preparation for the cyber cab?

他说，2025年德州超级工厂的电池生产形势大好。记得今年早些时候，特斯拉表示他们在第四季度干电极的生产启动方面进展顺利。这一步可以使电芯成本远低于现有的其他方案，而这正是4680项目的初衷。如果仔细分析，记得Lars曾说过，特斯拉不会随意制造4680电池，除非有地方可以使用这些电池。他说，我们要谨慎对待。此外，今年早些时候，特斯拉表示4680电池的生产速度比网络卡车的生产速度更快，目标是保持这种状态，不仅仅是为了网络卡车，也是为了我们未来的车辆项目。根据目前的情况，网络卡车的生产速度大约停留在每周1000辆左右的水平。但有证据显示，特斯拉正在不断扩展4680电池的生产线。特斯拉曾表示，不会为了好玩而匆忙生产4680电池，而是需要找到合适的用途。那么，这种额外的生产是否是在为网络出租车做准备呢？

We already know that platform is going to be battery agnostic, so it can take any type of cell. And lastly, remember what Tesla said in Q4 last year. They were only running one production line, one assembly line, and then using two assembly lines in addition for yield and rate improvement trials. And we have a fourth in commissioning, and four more will be installed in quarter three of 2024. So here's my point with all of this. As far as we can tell, Tesla spent the majority of 2024 with only two actual production lines for 4680s. The other two were actually more for trials. The last update we got, September 13th this year, Tesla was at an annual gigawatt hour run rate of 17.2. Thus, if two lines can do about 17 gigawatt hours, that would mean six lines if these additional four are all for full production. That would be 51 gigawatt hours plus. Bear in mind, those are run rate figures, but there's a very real chance if things go well with the cyber cab, and there's the need for that much 4680 production. Tesla may finally hit that 100 gigawatt hours produced number in 2026. Almost definitely by then as a run rate, but also possibly in terms of raw output for the year as well.

我们已经知道，该平台将支持多种电池，因此可以兼容任何类型的电芯。最后，回忆一下特斯拉在去年第四季度说的话。当时，他们只有一条生产线和一条组装线在运行，另外两条组装线则用于产量和速度的改进试验。我们还有第四条线正在调试中，另外四条将在2024年第三季度安装。因此，我想强调的是，据我们所知，特斯拉在2024年大部分时间里只有两条真正的4680电池生产线，另外两条主要用于试验。根据我们最近一次更新的信息，截至今年9月13日，特斯拉的年运行速率是17.2吉瓦时。因此，如果两条生产线可以实现大约17吉瓦时的产量，那么如果另外四条线全部用于全面生产，那将意味着总共可以达到51吉瓦时以上。请记住，这些是运行速率的数字，但如果网络卡车项目进展顺利，且对4680电池的需求很高，特斯拉很可能在2026年达到每年生产100吉瓦时的目标。到时几乎可以肯定会达到这样的运行速率，也可能实现全年实际产量的目标。

NHTSA has proposed a voluntary national framework for the evaluation and oversight of certain vehicles equipped with automated driving systems. If you've been following along, this should sound very familiar. This is the AV-STEP program. Under AV-STEP, NHTSA's assessment of an application would be informed by the views of an independent third party assessor. The proposed program would provide NHTSA and the public with greater insight into ADS development and operational data. For now, this is just a proposal and still needs to go through the public comment period. And to make it abundantly clear if it's not already, this is not the federal government laying out a federal regulation for robot taxi deployment. In short, this program is aiming to gather data and insight that can support the future development of ADS safety standards. In the document itself, NHTSA said it would publish a lot of the applications and reporting information to improve transparency. And if a company like Tesla were to participate in this, they'd be required to submit periodic and event triggered reports direct to NHTSA.

NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）提出了一项自愿的国家框架，用于评估和监督某些配备自动驾驶系统的车辆。如果你一直在关注相关消息，这应该听起来很熟悉。这就是AV-STEP计划。在AV-STEP计划下，NHTSA对申请的评估会考虑由一个独立的第三方评估员提供的意见。该提案将为NHTSA和公众提供更多关于自动驾驶系统开发和运营的数据。目前，这只是一个提案，还需要经历公众评论期。需要特别说明的是，这并不是联邦政府为无人驾驶出租车的部署制定的联邦法规。简而言之，这个计划旨在收集可以支持未来制定自动驾驶系统安全标准的数据和见解。在文件中，NHTSA表示将公布大量申请和报告信息以提高透明度。如果像特斯拉这样的公司参与其中，他们将被要求定期提交报告，并在特定事件发生时直接向NHTSA报告。

There are two different steps for participation in this program. Step one would be for vehicles using fallback personnel, aka a safety driver, and then step two vehicles that can operate without fallback personnel. And just to be technical, under the AV step program definition, fallback personnel does include people who would work at a remote operating center as well. It's just someone who continuously would supervise the performance of an ADS operated vehicle in real time and intervene whenever necessary to prevent a hazardous event by exercising any means of vehicle control. And with this one, the main reason I'm spending time on it, if you did not see that video earlier this year about the AV step program, it's really designed to offer an alternative regulatory pathway that could allow for the deployment of a larger number of autonomous vehicles. Currently, a true robot taxi would be limited to 2,500 vehicles deployed on the roads per year. This AV step program could help to change all of that.

参与该计划分为两个不同的步骤。第一步是使用备用人员（即安全驾驶员）的车辆；第二步是能够无需备用人员操作的车辆。为了更准确地说明，根据AV步骤计划的定义，备用人员也包括那些在远程操作中心工作的人。这些人会实时监控自动驾驶系统（ADS）车辆的表现，并在必要时通过车辆控制干预以防止危险事件的发生。我之所以强调这一点，是因为如果今年早些时候你没有看到关于AV步骤计划的视频，这个计划实际上旨在提供一种替代的监管途径，可能允许部署更多的自动驾驶车辆。目前，真正意义上的无人驾驶出租车每年被限于2,500辆上路。而这个AV步骤计划可能有助于改变这一现状。

VW and labor leaders have reached an agreement to cut capacity while avoiding factory closures. VW agreed to keep the brand's 10 German factories operational and to reinstate job security agreements until 2030. In exchange, workers agreed to forego some bonuses and to cut capacity at five sites by several hundred thousand units. But these measures are a far cry from the drastic savings that the VW originally proposed. If you've been around the channel, you should know that running factories well below max capacity is not a good thing for overall margins. There will be a Tesla OTA update for the TPMS warning light that may not remain illuminated between drive cycles failing to warn the driver of low tire pressure. This problem affected about 694,000 Model Y3 and Cybertruck vehicles.

大众和工会领袖达成了一项协议，在减少产能的同时避免关闭工厂。大众同意维持其在德国的10家工厂运营，并将工作保障协议延续至2030年。作为交换，工人同意放弃部分奖金，并在五个工厂将产能减少数十万辆。但这些措施远未达到大众最初建议的大幅节省。如果你一直关注这个频道，你应该知道，工厂的运转远低于最大产能，这对整体利润率是不利的。此外，特斯拉将进行一次远程更新，解决TPMS警告灯在驾驶周期之间可能不会持续亮起的问题，该问题未能警告司机轮胎气压不足。这一问题影响了约69.4万台Model Y、Model 3和Cybertruck车辆。

One of the first large-scale energy storage systems and one of the biggest in Chile will indeed use Tesla megapacks to be specific to 100 of them. Thus, this new project should be roughly $200 million in revenue for Tesla. The project is expected to begin operations by mid-2026. Tesla stock capped off a volatile week at $421.06 down 3.46% while the NASDAQ was up 1.03%. The volume was 31% higher than the average. Don't forget check out Surfshark linked below if you're interested. Again, could be a last-minute gift idea for family or friends. I do plan to upload Monday the 23rd and then I'll keep you posted from there. Hope you guys have a safe and wonderful weekend. Please like the video. If you did, you can find me on X-linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

其中一个首批大规模能源储存系统，也是智利最大的储能项目之一，将确实使用特斯拉的Megapack电池，具体来说将使用100个。 因此，该新项目预计将为特斯拉带来约2亿美元的收入。项目预计在2026年年中开始运作。特斯拉股票在动荡的一周结束时以421.06美元收盘，下跌了3.46%，而纳斯达克指数上涨了1.03%。成交量比平均水平高出31%。如果你感兴趣，不要忘记查看下面链接的Surfshark。再强调一下，这可能是给家人或朋友的一个临时礼物选择。我计划在周一23号上传新视频，然后会随时更新给大家。希望大家度过一个安全和愉快的周末。请点赞此视频。如果你喜欢，可以在下面链接中找到我，非常感谢我所有的Patreon支持者。