Mary Barra on Licensing FSD / Cybertruck Homologation in China / TSLA Stock - Seriously? ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Just real quick, I did have one of my Tesla referrals fall off, it did not go through, so I have at least one more use for my Tesla referral link if you need one mine will be below. I know my voice sounds pretty rough today, it turns out I have a sinus infection, so hopefully you all can bear with me as we get through this week. Carneuge China has reported that Tesla has finalized an energy consumption homologation for the Cybertruck in China. Tesla received an official energy consumption label from the regulator under the Ministry of Industry in IT. The report is saying that the Cybertruck is classified as an M1 passenger vehicle with a range of 384 miles.

欢迎来到Electrified节目，我是主持人Dylan Loomis。简短说一下，我有一个Tesla推荐码失效了，没有通过，所以如果你需要我的Tesla推荐码，可以在下面找到。我知道今天我的声音听起来有些沙哑，原来是得了鼻窦炎，希望大家能理解，我们一起度过这一周。中国的Carneuge报道说，特斯拉已在中国完成了Cybertruck的能耗认证。特斯拉从工业和信息化部的监管机构获得了官方的能耗标签。报道称，Cybertruck被归类为M1乘用车，续航里程为384英里。

And this could be meaningful because ordinarily pickup trucks in China are classified under the N1 category, and like North. So the Cybertruck being an M1 passenger vehicle would be out of the ordinary because they said pickup trucks are not considered passenger vehicles in China but are in the light trucks category, which prevents their wider adoption. I think most importantly, Carneuge China said although obtaining the energy consumption label is a necessary regulatory step, it does not guarantee the Cybertruck's immediate launch in China. However, local reports suggest Tesla is working on modifications to meet market access requirements including pedestrian collision protection.

这可能意义重大，因为在中国，皮卡车通常被归类为N1类车辆，比如北汽的车型。所以，假如Cybertruck被归类为M1类乘用车，就非常不寻常，因为一般在中国皮卡车并不被视为乘用车，而是归于轻型卡车的类别，这限制了它们的广泛使用。更重要的是，Carneuge China指出，虽然获得能耗标签是一个必要的监管步骤，但这并不保证Cybertruck能立即在中国上市。不过，当地报道称，特斯拉正在进行一些改装以满足市场准入要求，包括行人碰撞保护。

And at the same time, this video was shared by Tesla Chan of the Cybertruck entering the BYD plant and it looks like some engineers or employees were out studying taking pictures of the vehicle. And one thing I know for sure, even though the Chinese market has a lot of restrictions around bigger vehicles like this, I do know that they want the latest and greatest technology so this vehicle will absolutely be studied widely by the auto industry in China. As a reminder though, just over a week ago, the Tesla China team said it has no plans to sell the Cybertruck in China for now. The team denied that the Cybertruck would be brought to China through official channels anytime soon.

与此同时，一段视频显示，特斯拉的赛博卡车进入比亚迪工厂，该视频由Tesla Chan分享。从视频中看，似乎有一些工程师或员工出来拍摄这辆车。我确定的是，尽管中国市场对这类大型车辆有很多限制，但他们非常渴望获取最新最先进的技术，所以这辆车一定会受到中国汽车业的广泛研究。不过需要提醒的是，稍早前的一个多星期，特斯拉中国团队表示，目前没有计划在中国销售赛博卡车，并否认赛博卡车会通过官方渠道在近期进入中国市场。

Just last week we highlighted what Elon said getting Cybertruck road legal in China would be very difficult. But as we know, that does not mean it's impossible. And just FYI, there are still other steps and requirements for Tesla to go through for certification for a vehicle like the Cybertruck before they could ever sell it in the Chinese market. So this energy consumption homologation really would just be the first step and it's absolutely fair to ask the question why would Tesla do this if they don't have plans to eventually sell the Cybertruck in China. Another Chinese source is saying due to the Chinese market's restrictions on pickup truck models and body safety regulations, Tesla would need to spend quite a bit of money to tweak the vehicle if it were to bring the Cybertruck to China and the sales potential could be very limited.

就在上周，我们强调了埃隆·马斯克所说的，让Cybertruck在中国获得道路合法性将非常困难。但正如我们所知，这并不意味着是不可能的。仅供参考，特斯拉在将Cybertruck这样的车辆推向中国市场之前，还需要经过其他步骤和要求以获得认证。所以，能耗认证只是第一步，完全可以问，特斯拉如果没有计划最终在中国销售Cybertruck，为什么要进行这样的认证。还有另一个中国消息来源表示，由于中国市场对皮卡车型的限制和车身安全法规，特斯拉如果要将Cybertruck引入中国，需要投入相当多的钱进行调整，而且销售潜力可能非常有限。

So depending on the magnitude of these changes, Tesla would have to make it begs the question would Tesla consider making the Cybertruck at Giga Shanghai? Given what we know about Tesla's desire to localize production that would definitely make the most sense long term. Especially if similar modifications would make the Cybertruck road legal in the European markets as well. The CNEV post reported January through October of this year China's pickup truck sales were 427,000 units up 2% year over year, which is a rate of 42,700 per month. So if you extrapolate that for the year, that would be just over 512,000 units. So if eventually Tesla was able to capture 20% of that market, that would be just over 100,000 sales per year.

根据这些变化的程度，特斯拉可能需要考虑在上海超级工厂生产Cybertruck。这引发了一个问题：特斯拉会考虑在上海生产Cybertruck吗？考虑到特斯拉希望实现本地化生产的愿望，这是长期来看最合理的选择。尤其是如果类似的改动可以使Cybertruck在欧洲市场上合法上路的话。据CNEV post报道，今年1月至10月期间，中国的皮卡销量为42.7万辆，同比增长2%，月均销量为4.27万辆。如果按全年推算，总销量将超过51.2万辆。如果特斯拉最终能够占据这一市场的20%，那每年的销量将超过10万辆。

However, Tesla Chan reported that the Chinese pickup truck consumption trend study said that through the same time January talked over this year, electric pickup truck sales were only 9,217 units. And that number was up 58% year over year. I wanted to spend a minute going through this just to keep everybody's expectations somewhat in check for what this could do for Tesla's total addressable market for the Cybertruck in China if they actually do end up selling it in that market. And look, you can definitely make the argument that the Cybertruck would expand the overall and EV pickup markets in China. I'd probably make it myself, but again, at least for the next few years and given all of the restrictions on a vehicle like this in that market, we have to be realistic.

然而，特斯拉陈（Tesla Chan）报告称，根据中国皮卡消费趋势研究，今年1月以来的数据显示，电动皮卡的销量仅为9,217辆。而这个数字同比增长了58%。我想花一点时间来分析这一点，以便对特斯拉的Cybertruck如果真的进入中国市场，可能会对其总体可销售市场产生的影响有个合理预期。毫无疑问，可以认为Cybertruck会扩大中国的整体和电动皮卡市场。我可能也会这样认为，但至少在未来几年内，考虑到这类车辆在中国市场面临的各种限制，我们必须保持现实。

However, I think the main storyline here, if this were to happen is not how many extra Cybertruck's Tesla could sell. Personally, for Tesla, I think it would be a lot more about the halo effect, even if they only have limited Cybertrucks in China. One, that actually makes them more desirable. And as we know, that should make the rest of Tesla's lineup in China more desirable as well. From everything I read, the Chinese market loves the latest and greatest technology and the Cybertruck checks off many of those boxes. So even if Tesla could get a few thousand on the roads over in China, I think it would do a lot for the Tesla brand. Elon said 99% of cars will be electric and autonomous in the future. Manually driven gas cars will be like riding a horse while using a flip phone. Still happens, but it's rare. I know we've all heard this line from Elon before, but there's a reason I'm highlighting it will come back to it toward the end of the video.

不过，我认为这里的主要故事情节，即使这种情况发生，并不是特斯拉能多卖多少辆Cybertruck。我个人认为，对于特斯拉来说，更多的是关于光环效应，即使他们在中国的Cybertruck数量有限。首先，这实际上让它们更具吸引力。而且我们都知道，这应该也会让特斯拉在中国的其他车型更受欢迎。我所了解到的所有信息显示，中国市场喜欢最新和最好的科技产品，而Cybertruck正好符合了许多这种需求。所以即使特斯拉能在中国投放几千辆Cybertruck，我认为对特斯拉品牌也会有很大的帮助。埃隆说过，未来99%的汽车将是电动和自动驾驶的，手动驾驶的燃油车就像骑马或用翻盖手机，虽然仍然存在，但非常稀少。我知道我们都听过埃隆说这句话，但我之所以指出这一点，是因为在视频的结尾我们会回到这个话题。

And in the post that Elon shared from Sawyer were some results from the global EV alliance and their new study. Spoiler alert, 92% of EV drivers pulled will never go back to an ice vehicle. The survey was conducted from August 27th to November 20th this year and got over 23,000 respondents from 18 different countries. Only countries with over 100 respondents are included in the results. And the results have been weighted based on each country's share of the total EV fleet. Only 1% of respondents say if they had to replace their EV tomorrow that they would get a gas or diesel car. Honestly though from the whole report I thought this was the most interesting chart. It breaks down by country whether these owners agree or disagree with the fact that it takes longer to plan a road trip in an EV than an ice car. More than half of the countries including the United States said agree. We have to remember not all of these people own a Tesla.

在埃隆分享的一篇帖子中，有索耶发出的全球电动车联盟及其新研究的结果。剧透一下：92%的电动车用户表示他们不会再回到使用内燃机车的状态。这项调查从今年8月27日到11月20日进行，收集了来自18个国家超过23,000名受访者的意见。只有参与调查受访者超过100人的国家才被纳入结果范围。结果根据每个国家在全球电动车保有量中的份额进行了加权。仅有1%的受访者表示，如果明天要更换电动车，他们会选择汽油或柴油车。不过，说实话，在整个报告中，我觉得这张图表最有趣。它按国家划分，显示这些电动车车主是否同意电动车在规划公路旅行上比内燃机车更费时间。包括美国在内的超过一半国家选择了同意。我们必须记住，这些人并不都是特斯拉车主。

But after just doing a few thousand miles on a cross country road trip my response would be strongly disagree. As many of you know it was literally a case of I plug in the destination and the Tesla handles everything else. No third party apps, no extra planning required. I thought that was a welcome study after what we heard this summer when CNBC said nearly 30% of EV owners globally are likely to switch back to internal combustion engine cars. Which is part of why I don't love poles to begin with because I do think they can be easily manipulated.

在经历了一次几千英里的跨国公路旅行后，我的回应是强烈不同意。正如许多人所知，我只需要输入目的地，然后特斯拉会处理其他一切。不需要第三方应用程序，也不需要额外的计划。我觉得这次旅行很不错，特别是在我们听到CNBC今夏报道说全球近30%的电动车车主可能会转回使用内燃机汽车之后。我不喜欢调查的一部分原因是我认为它们很容易被操控。

Renew economy just highlighted that the cost of battery storage is currently plunging. According to a new gen cost report the price of battery storage has dropped more than 20% in the last 12 months. There's a new massive battery storage project set to go up in Australia at 2.6 gigawatt hours. And from this report they said the current price of a 4 hour battery and the part that's made up of just the battery price is $294 per kilowatt hour. I think this highlights Tesla's competitive spot in the market if you take Tesla's 4 hour battery which is 4 megawatt hours. If we take an average cost per megapack of $1 million that works out to $250 per kilowatt hour at the battery level. But obviously as industry wide pricing comes down adoption will go up.

可再生经济最近指出，电池储能的成本正在迅速下降。根据一份新的发电成本报告，电池储能的价格在过去12个月内下降了超过20%。澳大利亚将建设一个新的大型电池储能项目，容量为2.6吉瓦时。报告中提到，目前4小时电池的价格，其中仅电池部分的价格是每千瓦时294美元。我认为这凸显了特斯拉在市场中的竞争优势。如果我们考虑特斯拉的4小时电池，容量为4兆瓦时，平均每个Megapack的成本为100万美元，这相当于电池级别每千瓦时250美元。但显然，随着整个行业的价格下降，电池储能的普及将进一步提高。

Monroe Live put out a video today talking about Tesla's cybercab. Honestly for me it felt like they said a lot without really saying a lot that we don't already know. The main takeaway is that they confirmed what Tesla recently said that the cybercab could have 60% fewer parts than the Model 3. But the reason I'm sharing this is because in the video Sandy said the cybercab does not have cup holders. But looking at this video from Brian at Futuraza you can clearly see there are two cup holders right here in between the seats. Elon made a bold comment on X the other day. He replied to me saying the new Model 3 performance will give you more joy than any other possession as it's a Hall of Famer. With the holidays around the corner I figured I'd give everyone a more affordable option to spread some joy this time of year. Exeter the sponsor of today's video just started its Christmas sale so right now you can get up to 50% off using my code electrified at partner.xter.com slash dillumus linked below.

Monroe Live今天发布了一个关于特斯拉Cybercab的视频。老实说，对我而言，感觉他们说了很多，但没有提供很多我们不知道的新信息。主要的收获是，他们证实了特斯拉最近所说的，Cybercab可能比Model 3减少60%的零件。不过，我分享这个的原因是因为视频中Sandy说Cybercab没有杯架。但是，看Brian在Futuraza的视频时，你可以清楚地看到座椅之间有两个杯架。前几天Elon在X上大胆发言，他回复我说新款Model 3性能版会带给你比其他任何东西都更多的快乐，因为它是殿堂级产品。随着假期的临近，我想给大家提供一个更实惠的选择，让这个季节多一些欢乐。今天视频的赞助商Exeter刚刚启动了圣诞促销活动，现在使用我的代码electrified在partner.xter.com/dillumus可以获得最高50%的折扣，链接在下面。

We're now approaching 10 family members and friends that have asked for extra wallets after seeing mine with the card fan feature and the apple air tech slot. Exeter's new card holder pro can hold up to 14 cards and bills and offers a bunch of custom accessories. And not only do these wallets make great gifts but they have really nice backpacks. I just use this one on our trip to florida. They have camera cases, cash clips, key trackers and a lot more. And if you want a slimmer profile than the apple air tag option they have a new finder card that's the size of a credit card and works with apple find by so you can ring your wallet or bag anytime from your phone. Exeter makes high quality durable products. I've been using the same wallet now for over two years so if you want to support the channel and spread some cheer this holiday season go grab that 50% off using my link below.

我们现在有接近10位家人和朋友在看到我的钱包后，要求购买额外的钱包。这款钱包有卡片扇袋设计和苹果Air技术卡槽。Exeter的新款卡夹专业版可以容纳最多14张卡和纸币，并且提供多种定制配件。这些钱包不仅是很好的礼物，他们还有质量非常好的背包。我刚刚在去佛罗里达的旅行中使用了一个。他们还有相机包、现金夹、钥匙跟踪器等等。如果你想要比苹果Air标签更纤薄的设计，他们提供一个信用卡大小的新型寻物卡，该卡与苹果的Find My功能兼容，可以让你随时用手机找到钱包或包。Exeter生产高质量耐用的产品。我已经用了同一个钱包超过两年了。所以如果你想支持这个频道并在这个假期传播一些欢乐，可以使用我下面的链接享受五折优惠购买。

I'm sure many of you have already seen the press release from GM as they made a big announcement about their plans for crews going forward. In short, crews is no longer going to exist as a Robotaxi company. Basically GM is going to reabsorb this subsidiary into its own business and become part of GM and rather than focusing on a commercial Robotaxi fleet they're just going to take some of the engineers and maybe some of that technology and focus on advanced driving assistance systems on personal vehicles with the stated goal of eventually reaching level three for and beyond. They said GM will no longer fund the crews's Robotaxi development work given the considerable time and resources that would be needed to scale the business along with an increasingly competitive Robotaxi market. Right now GM owns about 90% of crews and they have agreements with other shareholders that will raise its ownership to more than 97%. The company will pursue the acquisition of the remaining shares and then contingent upon the repurchase of those shares and crews board approval. GM will work with the crews leadership team to restructure and refocus crews' operations. GM expects the restructuring to lower spending by more than $1 billion every year after the proposed plan is completed expected in the first half of next year.

我相信很多人已经看到GM发布的新闻稿，他们对未来的Crews计划做出了重大声明。简单来说，Crews将不再作为一家自动驾驶出租车公司存在。基本上，GM将这个子公司重新并入自己的业务中，不再专注于商业化的自动驾驶出租车队，而是会利用一些工程师和技术专注于个人车辆的高级驾驶辅助系统，目标是最终实现三级及以上的自动驾驶能力。GM表示，考虑到扩展该业务所需的大量时间和资源，以及日益激烈的自动驾驶出租车市场竞争，他们将不再为Crews的自动驾驶出租车开发工作提供资金。目前，GM拥有Crews约90%的股份，并通过与其他股东的协议使其持有比例提高到97%以上。公司计划收购剩余股份，并将在买回这些股份并获得Crews董事会批准后，与Crews领导团队合作对其运营进行重组和调整。GM预计这一重组将在明年上半年完成后，每年可减少超过10亿美元的支出。

Tech Crunch did speak to some crews employees and they said that they were surprised and blindsided by the decision. One said employees learned about GM's plans the same time the media did and it seems likely that any roles at crews that were directly related to the Robotaxi fleet will eventually be cut. Things like government affairs, communications, teams, ground operations and the remote assistance centers. I know some of you will remember after crews in the pedestrian incident and everything that came out from that investigation, the reluctance to share data, crews hiding certain things from regulators, the lack of focus on safety etc. I said crews will never be the same and I thought it would be a shell of itself or cease to exist entirely. Because GM will have realized it's just not their core competency and solving this problem is a lot harder than they think. And it took almost a year longer than I thought but we ended up at the same place.

Tech Crunch与一些Cruise的员工进行了交谈，他们表示对这个决定感到惊讶和措手不及。一位员工说，他们是在媒体报道的时候才得知通用汽车的计划的。看来，与Robotaxi车队直接相关的职位，如政府事务、沟通团队、地面操作和远程支援中心等，最终都可能会被裁撤。我记得有些人可能还记得，在Cruise发生行人事故后，随之而来的调查显示Cruise不愿分享数据，向监管机构隐瞒某些情况，缺乏对安全的关注等问题。我曾说过，Cruise将再也不是从前的样子，我认为它会变得名存实亡，甚至可能会完全消失。因为通用汽车会意识到，这并不是他们的核心竞争力，解决这个问题比他们想的要困难得多。虽然这比我预想的花了将近长一年的时间，但最终我们还是回到了同一个结局。

Responding to Sawyer sharing the news, Elon said achieving a general solution to autonomy is a very hard problem, especially doing so without making the car super expensive. GM did hold a call about this decision and they said that they're moving to an end to end foundation model approach, which is exactly what Tesla is doing. So GM is trying to move away from the rule based heuristics, aka removing C++ or whatever they're using. But again, the focus going forward will be only on personal vehicles that GM sells no more Robo taxi commercial fleet. However, Mary was asked point blank about partnerships and Tesla's FSD. Collaborating with other parties and I'm just wondering as you think about advancing to L3 and then eventually full autonomy, how do you think about the relationship with suppliers? Thanks. Yeah, I'm not going to get into the specifics of from a supply partnership perspective or other partnerships. But I definitely think we're not a everything must be invented here type of solution. But we want to make sure the overall solution is something where we really can distinguish ourselves from what the offering we have to consumer as well as how that creates additional revenue and profitability for the company. So more to come on that, obviously we have some work to do to get to what GM is laying out as our plan here. And as we do that, that will then open up our opportunities to have further discussions and share those. And if you were partner with United Nations, you're using that third party solution. Thanks. Yeah, we're not going to cover either of those at this point in time. There'll be more to follow as we go forward.

在回应索耶分享的消息时，埃隆表示，解决自动驾驶的通用方案是个非常难的问题，尤其是在不让汽车价格大幅上涨的情况下。通用汽车召开了一次会议，讨论他们的这一决策，并表示他们正在向一种端到端的基础模型方法转变，这正是特斯拉正在做的。因此，通用汽车尝试摆脱基于规则的启发式方法，也就是停止使用C++或其他类似的东西。但未来的重点将只放在通用汽车销售的个人车辆上，而不再继续发展Robo taxi商业车队。不过，玛丽被直截了当地问到关于与其他公司合作以及特斯拉的完全自动驾驶（FSD）的问题。在你考虑推进到第三级自动驾驶，并最终实现完全自动化的过程中，你是如何看待与供应商的关系的？谢谢。我目前不会从供应合作伙伴关系或者其他合作伙伴关系的角度进行具体说明。但我认为我们并不是一个所有事情都要在内部发明的解决方案。但我们希望确保整体解决方案能够使我们在消费者提供的产品方面真正与众不同，同时增加公司收入和盈利能力。显然我们还有一些工作要做才能实现通用汽车在这里制定的计划。在此过程中，我们将有更多的机会进行进一步的讨论并分享这些信息。如果你和联合国合作，还要使用那个第三方的解决方案。谢谢。这些问题我们目前不会讨论，接下来会有更多的信息。

This is an important announcement as we make the decision to really focus on personal autonomy from driver assistance technology to personal autonomous vehicles. So more to come, but not today. Cruz was well on its way to a robo-taxi business. But when you look at the fact that you're deploying a fleet, you're maintaining a fleet, there's a whole operations piece of doing that. And where the vehicle fit on the company's balance sheet. So as we looked at the cost, when that's not our core business today, if you look at rideshare 1.0, the capital intensive piece of that.

这是一个重要公告，我们决定真正专注于从驾驶辅助技术转向个人自主车辆。因此，后续会有更多信息，但不是今天。Cruz 曾在无人出租车业务上取得稳步进展。但如果你考虑到，部署和维护车辆队列，有一整套运营事务需要处理。还有车辆如何在公司资产负债表上体现。我们查看了成本，这不是我们目前的核心业务，如果你看看共享出行1.0，这是个资本密集型业务。

But I also think you've got to really understand the cost of running a robo-taxi fleet, which is fairly significant and again, not our core business. And I have to cut her off right there. I'll be honest, it's pretty painful listening to her because most of what she says is either nonsense or a lie. We all know the real reason GM is not funding Cruz anymore is because they know there's no path to scale as we've been saying now for years. Mary said it's also very costly to actually run a robo-taxi fleet. But if that's really the case, then she's basically saying she never really understood the business model in the first place.

但我认为，你必须真正了解运营一个自动驾驶出租车车队的成本，这相当可观，而且这也不是我们的核心业务。我必须打断她。坦白说，听她说话真的很痛苦，因为她说的大部分内容要么是胡说八道，要么是谎言。我们都知道，通用汽车不再为Cruz提供资金的真正原因是他们知道这个业务没有规模化的路径，这也是我们多年来一直在说的。玛丽还提到实际运营一个自动驾驶出租车车队的成本很高。但如果情况真的是这样，那基本上说明她一开始就没有真正理解这个商业模式。

I mean, are we really supposed to believe it took her all of this time to realize how expensive it was going to be for Cruz to operate? Of course, this is an incredibly hard problem to solve. The graveyard of autonomous companies grows by the quarter. We have Embark Trucks, Starsky Robotics, Argo AI when Ford and VW decided to stop backing that venture. Waymo's autonomous trucking division was shut down. Two simple was shut down in the United States, locomotion, ghost autonomy, and the list goes on.

我的意思是，我们真的应该相信她花了这么长时间才意识到让Cruz运营会有多贵吗？当然，这确实是一个非常难以解决的问题。每个季度都有自动驾驶公司的倒闭事例。比如，当福特和大众决定停止支持时，Argo AI就停运了，还有Embark Trucks、Starsky Robotics。Waymo的自动卡车部门被关停。两家简单公司的业务在美国停运，还有Locomation、Ghost Autonomy等等，这样的例子不胜枚举。

And now Mary's trying to say they're going to bring this technology from Cruz in-house to GM's vehicles. Well, I hate to break it to you, but no, they're actually not. Do we really think GM is going to start slapping these LIDAR units onto the roof of the Chevy Blazer or the Chevy Silverado? The answer is obviously no. Now, I'm sure there are some things that Cruz learned that GM will be able to use as they set up their new ADAS features and they strive for autonomy. But overall, this obviously is not the approach for personal vehicles.

玛丽现在试图说他们会将Cruise的这项技术引入到通用汽车的车辆中。好吧，我得告诉你，实际上并不会。我们真的认为通用汽车会把这些激光雷达装到雪佛兰Blazer或雪佛兰Silverado的车顶上吗？答案显然是否定的。我相信Cruise有些经验是通用汽车可以用来开发新的高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）和追求自动驾驶的。但总体来说，这显然不是个人车辆的发展方向。

And then the hilarity continued as we have Kyle Vote who was the founder of Cruz crawling out of the woodwork saying in case it was unclear before it's clear now GM are a bunch of dummies. Well, guess what Kyle, maybe that makes you a dummy as well because you're the one that decided to sell your company to GM in the first place. I'm a little fired up because for years Elon gets so much hate, but meanwhile, Mary Barra is making reckless promises like this saying that Cruz will be generating $50 billion in revenue every year by 2030 when in reality Cruz will go down as losing over $10 billion and now it's going to cease to exist as a robot taxi company altogether.

然后，搞笑的事情继续上演，Cruz的创始人凯尔·沃特从幕后出来，说如果之前不清楚，那么现在很清楚，通用汽车（GM）是一群傻瓜。好吧，凯尔，也许这也让你看起来像个傻瓜，因为当初是你决定把公司卖给通用的。我有点激动，因为多年来，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）受到很多批评，而与此同时，玛丽·巴拉（Mary Barra）却在做出像这样鲁莽的承诺，声称到2030年Cruz每年将创造500亿美元的收入，但实际上Cruz亏损超过100亿美元，现在将完全停止作为机器人出租车公司的运作。

But I don't see anybody in the media criticizing Mary Barra for making false promises. And yeah, Elon's late with some stuff, but more often than not, he ends up delivering George Hott's chined in on the conversation saying self-driving has played out exactly like I said it would Tesla will win and comma AI will take second with an open source solution. And George said Waymo is actually a cool service, but it's not a self driving car. It's teleoperated and it loses a lot of money. But if Google wants to use its massive ad revenues to subsidize better public transit for cities, I'm all for it.

但我没有看到媒体批评玛丽·巴拉(Mary Barra)做出虚假承诺。是的，埃隆（Elon）在一些事情上有所延迟，但他通常最后都会兑现承诺。乔治·霍茨（George Hott）也参与了讨论，说自动驾驶的发展正如他所预料的那样，特斯拉将胜利，而Comma AI则会通过开源解决方案位居第二。乔治还说，Waymo实际上是一个很酷的服务，但它并不是一辆自动驾驶汽车，而是远程操作的，并且亏损严重。但如果谷歌想利用其巨大的广告收入来补贴城市更好的公共交通，我完全支持。

George said on a per dollar basis, we crush Tesla, but they have way more to throw at the problem than us and unlike companies like GM, they're throwing things in mostly the right direction. Second place is still a big win. Tesla is the vertical integrated closed source one like iOS and weird the swap bits and pieces open source one like Android. Then Elon jumped in and said Tesla is absurdly efficient at inference because we're limited by a 200 watt in car computer and actually can't brute force a solution with several kilowatts of Nvidia GPUs.

乔治说，就每一美元来说，我们比特斯拉做得更好，但他们在解决问题上能投入的资源比我们多得多。与通用汽车这样的公司不同，特斯拉大多在朝着正确的方向努力。即使是第二名也可以算是一个很大的胜利。特斯拉就像iOS，是垂直整合的闭源系统，而我们则像Android，灵活交换组件的开源系统。然后，埃隆加入了讨论，说特斯拉在推理上效率极高，因为我们受到车内200瓦计算机的限制，实际上无法用几个千瓦的英伟达GPU直接解决问题。

At this point, it really should be so glaringly obvious to anybody paying attention without an ulterior motive that Tesla is the only one that has any chance of solving generalized autonomy anytime soon. But hopefully it was clear to you listening to Mary Barr that she's obviously open to working with suppliers or third parties or developing partnerships to advance their autonomous efforts. She literally said it's not a solution that we need to develop in house, aka we're not going to. But it's also true that GM licensing FSD is not as easy as using the supercharger network and using next. It's a much bigger decision and it involves a much deeper partnership.

在这一点上，对于任何没有其他动机的人来说，特斯拉是目前唯一有可能在短期内解决通用自动驾驶问题的公司，这应该已经非常明显。但希望你能听懂玛丽·巴拉的话，她显然愿意与供应商或第三方合作，或发展伙伴关系，以推动他们的自动驾驶技术。她确实表示，这不是一个我们需要自己开发的解决方案，也就是说，我们不会这样做。但是，通用汽车想要授权使用特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD），不像使用超级充电网络那么简单。这是一个更大的决定，需要建立更深入的合作关系。

My guess is GM will go to Nvidia and try to get really good at level two automated driving just like Ford did after backing away from Argo AI. All the while they'll say publicly how much progress they're making and that level four is coming and all of these things when in reality they're just going to be waiting for Tesla to actually launch unsupervised FSD next year and when that happens and the public starts to accept it then GM's going to be like alright we're licensing FSD. Yes obviously they should just do it now because it's going to take years to actually develop that partnership but GM is a very risk averse company so that's likely not going to happen.

我猜通用汽车（GM）可能会像福特在放弃Argo AI后所做的那样，与英伟达（Nvidia）合作，努力提高其二级自动驾驶技术。与此同时，他们会在公开场合宣称自己正在取得多大的进展，说四级自动驾驶马上就要实现了等等。但实际上，他们可能只是在等待特斯拉明年真正推出无监督的完全自动驾驶（FSD）。如果到时公众接受了这种技术，通用汽车可能会表示“好吧，我们要引入FSD”。虽然显然他们现在就应该这么做，因为建立这种合作关系需要几年时间，但通用是一家非常保守的公司，因此这种转变不太可能马上发生。

Kyle and the out of spec team got to drive a pre-production version of the Lucid Gravity. I'll have the video below but overall Kyle loved the driving experience but has concerns about the software because in this early version many of the software features were not yet working and this was only a week or two before actual production began. But it is a proper three row SUV it's a decent looking vehicle of course this spec is going to be north of $120,000 but it starts around $95,000 and hopefully more affordable versions will come in the future. And this vehicle is set to get 450 miles of EPA range and it does have a NACS port standard but Lucid does not yet have access to the supercharger network. So yeah obviously Lucid is going to need to figure out the software side of that soon right now it's only Ford, GM, Nissan, Polestar, Rivian and Volvo.

凯尔和他的“超规格”团队有机会试驾了Lucid Gravity的一款试生产版本。我会把视频放在下面，总体来说，凯尔对驾驶体验非常满意，但对软件有些担忧，因为在这个早期版本中，许多软件功能还没有正常运行，而这离实际生产开始只有一到两周的时间。不过，这是一款真正的三排SUV，看起来相当不错。当然，这个版本的价格会超过12万美元，但起价大约为9.5万美元，希望未来会推出更实惠的版本。这辆车计划达到450英里的EPA续航里程，并且标配有NACS充电接口，但Lucid目前还没有接入超级充电网络。所以，Lucid显然需要尽快解决软件问题。目前只有福特、通用、日产、Polestar、Rivian和沃尔沃接入了这个网络。

As Sawyer shared Tesla's Miss Gall tequila is going to be restocked in the US tomorrow December 12th at $450. Admittedly I am a big tequila guy just make sure you celebrate Tesla all time highs responsibly. The other day the official BMW account on X responded to an AI driver post saying very impressive. Of course it ended up getting a lot of attention and later that post was deleted by BMW and then Elon said too bad that was one of their best posts. Just FYI some people out there were saying Tesla stock is running because Goldman Sacks increased their Tesla stock price target. I'm sorry but that's a joke their new price target is only $345 and they actually only have a neutral rating on the stock. We closed the day over $420 so this would not be a bullish thing so I just don't understand what people are saying. And look obviously I do actually understand it I'm just saying I think generally it's stupid that people think this way to begin with.

如Sawyer所分享的，Tesla的Miss Gall龙舌兰酒明天（12月12日）将在美国补货，售价为450美元。说实话，我特别喜欢龙舌兰酒，但一定要理性庆祝Tesla股价创下历史新高。前几天，宝马的官方账号在社交平台X上对一个AI驾驶的帖子回应说“非常厉害”。这个帖子引起了很多关注，后来宝马删掉了，埃隆·马斯克还说，“真可惜，那是他们最好的帖子之一。” 顺便说一下，有人声称Tesla的股价上涨是因为高盛提高了其股票目标价。不好意思，我觉得这是个笑话，他们的新目标价只有345美元，他们实际上对股票只是持中立评级。我们那天的收盘价超过了420美元，所以这并不是个看涨的信号，我实在不理解人们是怎么想的。其实，我当然理解，我只是觉得人们有这种想法本身就很愚蠢。

Honestly most of these firms should just have a 20% offset so anytime Tesla stock moves by we'll call it 30% they just take that current price subtract 20% and make that their new price target because that's basically what they do anyways. Domestically this quarter Tesla China is killing it the latest weekly data came in at 21,900 units comparing that to the same quarter 3 that number was 16,200 so quarter over quarter Tesla China is now up 9.5% and compared to the same week in quarter four last year that number was 15,400 so year over year Tesla China is now up 17.9% and for Tesla to set a new record quarter for domestic sales they only need to do over 13,400 for the remaining three weeks and honestly given where the trend has been the past few weeks I'd be very surprised if they don't set a new record in quarter four.

老实说，大多数这些公司应该设置一个20%的调整措施，所以每当特斯拉股票波动30%的时候，他们就将当前价格减去20%作为新的目标价，因为他们基本上一直是这样做的。就国内市场来说，这个季度特斯拉中国表现出色，最新的每周数据显示销量为21,900辆。相比第三季度同期，这一数字为16,200辆，因此季度环比增长了9.5%。而相比去年的第四季度同期，这一数字为15,400辆，今年同比增长了17.9%。为了让特斯拉在国内销量方面创造新的季度记录，他们只需要在接下来的三周内销售超过13,400辆。考虑到过去几周的趋势，如果他们在第四季度没能创造新纪录，我会感到非常惊讶。

However, I want to make it clear these strong sales in China are likely to be offset by slower sales in the United States and across Europe. Domestic sales for Giga China this year in November set a new record for the entirety of this year however the monthly export number was also the lowest it's been all year and it's not particularly close it came in at just over 5,300 where previously the low watermark for this year was June at 11,700 so just bear in mind no matter what's going on with Tesla China right now overall for 2024 Tesla is still likely to be flat relative to 2023. On the climate front Elon did say if we transition to primarily sustainable energy consumption EVs and heating and production mostly solar and fission within 20 years or so which is currently trending to happen the world will be fine I am oh earmuffs if you have children around but this one is too sweet not to share the Swedish Union is now very upset and lashing out because despite their best efforts to slow down Tesla Tesla is still thriving in the region a local chairman said I think it's totally reprehensible it's BS we would have liked to see that not a single Tesla came here.

尽管中国的销售表现强劲，但我要明确指出，这可能会被美国和欧洲的销售放缓所抵消。今年11月，特斯拉中国的国内销售创下了年度新高，但当月的出口量却是全年最低的，仅为5300多辆，而此前今年的最低纪录是在6月，为11700辆。所以，无论目前特斯拉中国的情况如何，2024年特斯拉的总体表现预计仍会与2023年持平。关于气候问题，埃隆·马斯克表示，如果我们在大约20年内主要转向可持续的能源消耗，比如电动车、太阳能和核裂变取暖和生产，这个趋势目前在发生，世界就会一切安好（我想向在场的孩子们说抱歉，但这个消息太美好不能不分享）。瑞典的工会现在非常不满并发表了激烈批评，因为尽管他们尽力阻止特斯拉在该地区的发展，特斯拉仍在蓬勃发展。一位当地的主席表示：“我认为这完全不可接受，这简直是胡说八道。我们本希望这儿一辆特斯拉都没有。”

Dan Ives put out their top 10 Christmas wish list for the tech sector in 2025 on it they said Tesla will reach a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2025 we believe the autonomous story at Tesla is worth $1 trillion alone and that in a bouquet scenario by the end of next year Tesla could achieve that $2 trillion market cap FSD autonomous and the launch of cybercab for early 2026 are keys for Tesla and I'm sorry guys but my voice and my energy is maxed out for the day so we're going to wrap it here Tesla stock closed the day at $424.77 up 5.93% which yes is now a new all-time record high for Tesla this is both a record high closing price and a record high intraday price and a new record market cap sitting at $1.36 trillion surprisingly the volume was only about 9% higher than the average the past 30 days and look I feel like I have to share this if you've been around the Tesla story long enough you'll understand why these numbers are so significant and the fact that these two numbers coalesce like this really is pretty incredible so to everybody who has stayed the course over the past few years honestly well done I salute you and cheers to the next few years but I'll leave you guys with this clip of Tesla's FSD saving us about 30 minutes in traffic if you missed it over on X this is 12.5.6.4 on AI4 don't forget check out extra links below grab something for yourself or your family and friends for the holidays take advantage of that discount hope you guys have a wonderful day

Dan Ives 发布了他们对 2025 年科技行业的圣诞愿望清单。他们表示，特斯拉到 2025 年底市值将达到 2 万亿美元。他们认为，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术本身就价值 1 万亿美元。在一个乐观的情况下，到明年年底特斯拉可能会实现 2 万亿美元的市值。全自动驾驶和 2026 年初的 CyberCab 发布是特斯拉的关键。抱歉，我今天的声音和精力已经用完了，所以我们就到此为止。特斯拉股票今日收盘价为 424.77 美元，上涨 5.93%，是特斯拉历史最高收盘价和盘中最高价，市值达到 1.36 万亿美元。令人惊讶的是，成交量仅比过去 30 天平均水平高出大约 9%。如果你对特斯拉的故事了解很久，你会明白这些数字的意义有多大，特别是这些数字如此完美结合实在令人惊叹。所以，对于那些在过去几年中一直坚持的人们，向你们致敬，祝酒未来几年。我将留给大家一段特斯拉全自动驾驶在交通中为我们节省约 30 分钟的视频，如果你在 X 上错过了，这就是 12.5.6.4 版本。别忘了查看下面的额外链接，为自己或家人朋友选购节日礼物并享受折扣。希望你们有美好的一天。

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