11 Stocks for Spring Cleaning Your Portfolio
发布时间 2023-04-07 20:00:00 来源
It's time to do a little spring cleaning with your investing life. Botily full money starts now. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. This is Motley Full Money. It's the Motley Full Money radio show. I'm Chris Hill and I'm joined by Motley Full Senior Analyst Jason Moser and Ron Gross. Good to see you both. Happy spring.
现在是时候对你的投资生活进行一些春季清洁了。 Botily full money 开始了。每个人都需要钱。这就是为什么他们称其为钱。这是 Motley Full Money。这是 Motley Full Money 电台节目。我是克里斯·希尔，我跟 Motley Full 高级分析师杰森·莫泽和罗恩·格罗斯一起。很高兴见到你们两个，祝你们春季愉快。
Are you doing, Chris? Happy spring indeed. It is our spring cleaning special. We are using spring break as a chance to lean into the theme of spring cleaning because let's face it folks. It is not just our closets and our yards that benefit from spring cleaning. Our portfolios do as well.
你好吗，克里斯？春天真的太美好了。我们正好趁春假来把清洁主题推向极致，因为我们得面对这个事实：春季清洁不仅有益于我们的衣橱和院子，对我们的投资组合也是有益的。
So, Ron Gross, I'm going to start with you thinking about trimming the hedges here. What is a high flyer that you think investors might want to consider trimming in their portfolio? I'm going to go with five below.
好的，Ron Gross，我先让你考虑一下如何修剪这些树篱。你认为投资者可能想要在他们的投资组合中考虑修剪什么风头正劲的公司？我会选择五下零售公司。
Now, it's a fine company. I have nothing at all against it. So, I want to say that at the outset. I'm just saying the shares are up about 85% from its 52-week low. And at a market cap of around $11 billion, it's trading at 35 times forward earnings. Wow. Forward earnings guidance actually from the company of around 310 million. So, not an analyst. The company is actually giving you guidance there.
现在这个公司很不错。我完全没有反对它。所以，我想在一开始就说这个。我只是在说，这个股票与它的52周低点相比上涨了大约85％。并且以约110亿美元的市值来看，它的前瞻性收益率为35倍。哇。实际上，这个公司的前瞻性收益率指导大约为3.1亿美元。所以，这不是分析师，而是公司实际上给你提供了指导。
So, 35 times. Compare that to dollar general at 18 times, dollar tree at 21 times, Ali's bargain outlet at 23 times. Selling at a significant premium to similar types of companies. Now, things are going well. Sales for the full year were up 8%. They opened up 115 new stores. They're going to open up another 200 stores. So, it will grow. They don't have debt. They're buying back stock. So, again, nothing wrong with the company. All I'm saying is, may have gotten a little bit ahead of itself. It's if it's now an outsized position for you as a result, maybe a good one to trim.
所以，35倍。与 Dollar General 的 18 倍、 Dollar Tree 的 21 倍和 Ali's Bargain Outlet 的 23 倍相比，销售价格显著高于同类公司。现在，事情发展得很好。全年销售额增长了 8%。他们开了 115 家新店。他们还将再开 200 家店。所以，会有增长。他们没有债务。他们正在回购股票。所以，再次强调，公司没有问题。我只是想说，它可能有点过头了。如果这导致你拥有过多的头寸，可能需要适当减仓。
Well, and it's a good reminder, Ron, if you're wondering about the valuation of any given stock, taking a moment and comparing it to the valuation in your case with, look at 5 below a discount retailer compared to dollar tree, dollar general and Ali's bargain.
嗯，这是一个很好的提醒，罗恩。如果你对某只股票的估值感到疑惑，可以花点时间将其与以下五个折扣零售商的估值进行比较：Dollar Tree、Dollar General和Ali's Bargain。
Jason, what about you?
嘿，杰森，你怎么想呢？
Well, don't get angry with me, Chris. Please, I am going to just to the outside. Let's say, don't trim. Right. If you have high flyers in your portfolio, what do we like to say here? Water your flowers, pull the weeds. Let those high flyers run. Now, in all seriousness, that's great in theory, but there is a point where those high flyers could probably start causing you to lose a little sleep at night.
嗯，别生我的气，Chris。我只是要去外面一下。就是说，不削减。对。如果你的投资组合里有高飞行者，我们在这里要说什么？浇水施肥，除草。让那些高飞行者飞翔。现在，说真的，理论上很好，但有一个点，那些高飞行者可能开始导致你晚上失眠一点。
And so, I will say, if you feel like you have overexposure to any high flyers, if they've run on you and they remain good businesses with questionable valuations, this could be a good time to right size that position. So, I'm not really calling out any names in this case because it is so specific in listening, Ron.
所以，我想说的是，如果你觉得你暴露在任何高增长股票的风险中，如果它们已经上涨并且估值可疑，那么现在可能是合适的时候调整你的头寸。在这种情况下，我不会点名任何公司，因为这需要根据具体情况来判断。
Well, deal with you later. It is a very personal decision, right? It is something that everybody kind of has to determine their own allocation and what ultimately lets them sleep at night. I think you spring is a great time to look at that. If you have a position that has run beyond your wildest dreams, it could be a good opportunity to take a little bit of that off the table and put that money to good use.
好的，稍后再跟你处理。这是一个非常个人的决定，对吧？这是每个人都必须确定自己的分配方式，最终让他们晚上能安心入睡的事情。我认为春天是审视这个问题的好时机。如果你的某个职位已经超出了你最疯狂的梦想，那么把一小部分资金拿出来好好利用一下是个好机会。
But if you've got high flyers and you feel like that business is still doing what you thought it would do, let those things keep running. My guess is that in this market in the last year or so we've had, there's not a lot of that going on.
如果你有高飞手和感觉业务仍然按照你的想法进行，就让这些事情继续发展。我猜想，在过去的一年左右的市场中，这种情况并不多见。
Well, sports roll deals, but there could be the outlier there that you got in on something at their 52-week low. It's now double or even triple and you never anticipated that and you might want a trim. Right. And keep in mind, we're talking about trimming the hedges. We're not talking about ripping the hedges out of the ground and throwing them away.
好的，运动滚动交易，但可能会有一些异常情况，你会在它们的52周低点进入某些交易。现在它已经翻了一番甚至三番，你从未预料到这种情况，你可能想要减持。是的，要记住，我们说的是修剪树篱。我们不是说要把树篱从地里拔出来扔掉。
Unlike this next category, Ron, which is when you're doing some string cleaning at home, you're probably throwing some stuff out. What is a stock that you think investors should consider throwing out altogether?
和这个类别不同，Ron，当你在家清理一些杂物时，你很可能会扔掉一些东西。你认为投资者应该考虑彻底扔掉哪些股票？
Now, not all of my colleagues agree with me here, but I never did and currently don't like Zillow. For me, too many mistakes from this management team and on this business, I don't want to be a part owner of it. As we know, most of us know, they had a completely unwind their eye-buying home business. That was a complete debacle. Thankfully, that is behind them.
其实，我的同事们不完全同意我，但我从来不喜欢也目前不喜欢Zillow。对我来说，这个管理团队和公司犯了太多错误，我不想成为其的一部分所有人。我们都知道，他们撤消了他们的房屋购买业务。那是一个彻底失败的商业决策。幸运的是，这已经成为过去。
Latest quarter results did exceed their outlook, but total revenue was down 19%. So they did better than they thought, but they were still down 19%. The clients in their internet media technology business, in their mortgage business, mortgage revenue down 65%, their premier agent business, down 20%, visits to the site during the quarter, down 5%.
最近一个季度的业绩超出了他们的预期，但总收入下降了19%。所以他们做得比他们想象中要好，但仍然下降了19%。他们互联网媒体技术业务、抵押贷款业务的客户、抵押贷款收入下降了65%、他们的首席代理商业务下降了20%、本季度网站访问量下降了5%。
Their vision is to build the Housing Super App. Okay, let's see how they execute. I'll be watching alongside with all of you.
他们的愿景是建立一个住房超级应用程序。好的，让我们看看他们如何执行。我会和你们所有人一起观察。
Trading at 16.5 times, adjustity, but 44 times forward estimates, because if you use current estimates, it won't work because they're actually not making any money, too, you'll get an NA or an NM in that category right there.
以16.5倍的交易倍数进行交易是合理的，但是根据未来预测，这个倍数将达到44倍。因为如果使用当前的预测数据，它实际上并没有赚到钱，所以你会在那个类别里得到一个NA或者NM的结果。
If they perform, the stock is low, and that multiple will come down pretty quickly as earnings rise, I just don't want to be there long for the ride.
如果他们表现良好，股票价格下跌，而收益增长得很快，那么那个倍数很快就会下降，我只是不想长时间坐在那里观望。
The skepticism, just dripping from that whole diatribe, Jason, it was unbelievable.
Jason，你那番话里的怀疑，简直是滴滴答答的，令人难以置信。
What about you? What's the stock investors might want to throw it all together?
你呢？股票投资者可能想要将它们全部抛掉？
I will say, Ron, I think I agreed, you said Super App. Every year was a couple of years ago when we heard Super App, but we thought, wow, that's all of the opportunity in the world, and a couple of years later, you kind of realize that's just a canned statement that doesn't really have any vision, so to say. I think I'm on board with you there.
我觉得我同意你说的超级应用。几年前我们第一次听到超级应用的时候，觉得这是世界上最好的机会。但是几年过去了，我们意识到那只是一句套话，没有什么真正的前瞻性。我想我和你的想法是一致的。
Chris, I look at my personal portfolio. I continue to hold a small position in underarmour. Every once in a while, I ask myself, why? I just don't know. For a long time, it was such a good performer, and then it just fell off of a cliff. They've had a number of different thesis-breaking events. I continue to think I probably haven't sold it because I'm just lazy, but I also look at it and Chris, like we've said before, they've made good stuff. I can't understand why they've not been able to get over that hump. To me, the big question really continues to be Kevin Plank, and how tough is he actually to work for?
Chris，我在看我的个人投资组合。我继续持有少量的神器运动装备公司的股票。不时地，我会问自己，为什么？我真的不知道。在很长一段时间里，它表现得很好，然后就跌了下来。他们经历了许多不同的事件，破坏了投资理念。我认为我可能还没卖它，是因为我懒惰，但我也看着它，像我们以前说过的，他们制造了很好的东西。我无法理解为什么他们不能克服这个难关。对我来说，真正的问题仍然是凯文·普兰克，他到底是一个多么难以相处的人？
They've got a new CEO stepping in and Stephanie at Coleman Lennart's. Can she make a difference? Maybe? I don't know, but at this point, how big of a difference can she make if Plank is really the one behind the scenes calling the shots, because he is really, ultimately, the owner of the business still.
他们有一位新的首席执行官加入，还有斯蒂芬妮在科尔曼·莱纳特公司。她能带来改变吗？也许？我不知道，但是在这个时候，如果普兰克真的是幕后操纵者，他仍然是业务的所有者，那么她能起到多大的作用呢？
Will I sell these shares? I'm probably going to be lazy and not, but still. I will probably ask myself this question, again, next spring. Why haven't I sold these shares yet?
我会卖掉这些股票吗？我可能会因为懒惰而不卖，但是还是会思考这个问题。到下个春天，我可能还会再次问自己，为什么我还没有卖掉这些股票呢？
Let's turn positive, Ron, in the spirit of Marie Kondo. What is a stock or a business that sparks joy in you?
让我们秉承玛丽·康多的精神，转向积极向上的态度，Ron。哪些股票或企业能唤起你的喜悦之情呢？
Well, I am a broken record on Costco, but is truly a company, I really admire, and I'll go through why. I love the culture that they have created, Jim Senegal back in the day, and it continues today. They value employees, customers, and shareholders.
好的，我对于Costco会如此滔滔不绝，但它确实是一家我非常钦佩的公司，现在我将阐述其原因。我喜欢他们创造的文化，Jim Senegal很早以前就开始了，现在仍然延续着。他们珍视员工、顾客和股东。
They offer a tremendous value proposition to the customer. They've got a membership model where 75% of their operating profit actually comes from the membership fee that we all are more than happy to pay each year.
他们为顾客提供了非常超值的价值主张。他们采用会员模式，其中75％的运营利润实际上来自我们每年非常乐意支付的会员费。
They have pricing power. It allows them to periodically raise those membership prices, which again, fall right to the bottom line. They average about a price hike about every five and a half, five and a half years. I think we'll do for one soon, so keep an eye out for that. I love their 90% renewal rate. It keeps those recurring revenues pouring in.
他们有定价权，这使得他们能够定期提高会员费用，再次增加底线。他们平均每五年半左右加价一次。我认为我们很快会有一个加价，所以请注意。我喜欢他们90%的续约率，这使得不断复发的收入源源不断地涌入。
They have the ability to continue to expand, even online in a big way, I believe. They have 848 warehouses, 584 of them in the US. Stocks never cheap, because I'm not the only one that loves this company, but at 32 times forward earnings, it's cheaper than it has been in the past. You're paying a premium price for a premium company. And on a valuation basis, cheaper than five below.
我相信他们拥有继续扩张的能力，甚至在线上也是如此。他们有848个仓库，其中584个在美国。股票价格从未便宜，因为我不是唯一一个喜欢这个公司的人，但以32倍的前进收益率来看，它比以前更便宜。你为优质企业支付了溢价价格。在估值方面，比五美元以下更便宜。
There you go.
给你，拿去吧。
Jason, what about you?
杰森，你呢？
Well, this one sparks joy in me because it's something that's worked out very well for our members in Chris. That's ultimately why we're here, right?
这个让我很开心，因为这是对克里斯会员非常成功的事情。这就是我们在这里的根本原因，对吧？
I look to the top performer in my next gen Supercycle service. This one that focuses on 5G and connectivity. The top performer, no, Chris, it's not Apple. Ron, it's cadence design system.
我在我的下一代超级周期服务中寻找最佳表现者。这个服务关注5G和连接性。最佳表现者，不，克里斯，不是苹果。罗恩，是Cadence设计系统。
I know probably no one out there has even heard of this business. And I think that actually is a little bit of an advantage there. I flies under the radar, but it's got a very strong competitive position. It's got software, the hardware, the intellectual property that ultimately helps its customers.
我知道可能没有人听说过这个企业。我认为这实际上是一个小小的优势。它在低调地避开了注意，但是它拥有着非常强大的竞争地位。它拥有着软件、硬件和知识产权，这最终能够帮助它的客户。
One of these big semiconductor companies, these companies are building these electronic products that we use every day. They serve these end markets from consumers, hypersteel computing, 5G communications, automotive industrial. The list goes on and on. And if you look at the last five years, the company has grown revenue and annualized rate of 13% with net income up and even more impressive 33%.
这些大型半导体公司之一正致力于建造我们每天使用的电子产品，服务于包括消费者、高性能计算、5G通信、汽车工业等各个终端市场。而且，如果您看过过去五年的业绩，这家公司的收入年均增长率为13%，净收入更是让人印象深刻，增长了33%。
So that outperformance is no accident. And I'm thrilled for all of our members who've been along for the ride on that one.
所以，非凡的表现不是偶然发生的。我为我们所有一起经历过这个过程的团队成员感到兴奋。
Coming up after the break, a few stocks that are poised for a comeback. Details next are stay right here.
接下来，在广告后，我们将为您介绍一些即将复苏的股票。请继续收听，详情即将揭晓。
You're listening to Motley Full Money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about in the Motley Full Man formal recommendations for or against some of our stock. So based solely on what you hear, welcome back to Motley Full Money.
你正在收听 Motley Full Money。一如既往，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票感兴趣，可能会对我们股票建议中的一些股票持有或反对态度。所以仅根据你听到的内容，欢迎回到 Motley Full Money。
Chris Hill here with Jason Moser and Ron Gross. It is our spring cleaning special. We're recording this one a little earlier than usual. Springtime is all about rebirth, renewal.
克里斯·希尔在这里，跟杰森·莫瑟和朗·格罗斯在一起。这是我们的春季大扫除特别节目。我们比平时稍早一点录制。春天意味着新生和更新。
So Jason, what is a stock or industry that you believed is poised for a comeback? Well, we talk a lot about the war on cash and with these two companies, I'm choosing here, you would think over the last year cash is winning. And I just, you know, let's not be too short term focused. You're right. I'm looking at big, thin tech, PayPal and Block. I think these companies are poised to see better days.
嗨，Jason，你认为哪些股票或行业会迎来复苏？嗯，我们经常谈到现金的消亡，但就我选择的这两家公司而言，过去一年，现金好像处于领先地位。但是我们别太短视了。你说得对。我看好大型科技公司PayPal和Block。我认为这些公司处于迎来好日子的位置。
You saw a short report recently on Block. We've seen a number of problems over PayPal recently. Clearly they're undergoing leadership transition. And the one year chart of both companies is horrendous. I mean, Blockdown around 50% PayPal down something like 36%. These are still both very respectable businesses with tremendous tail ones that they're playing into. So I clearly some challenges they're dealing with over the last year plus I think they're poised for better days ahead.
你最近看了Block的简短报道。最近我们也看到了PayPal的一些问题。显然他们正在进行领导层过渡。两公司的一年图表看上去很糟糕。我是说，Block下跌了约50%，PayPal下跌了约36%。但是这两家公司仍然是非常值得尊敬的企业，他们正在发挥巨大的潜力。所以，我认为他们在过去一年中遇到了一些挑战，但我相信他们将迎来更好的日子。
Ron, what about you? You know, I haven't talked much recently about my biotech basket that I started building way back in 2017. And it was on fire for a while. But now after almost six years, it's actually down 2%. The basket's focused on gene therapy to refresh some listeners' memories. And I'm by no means a biotech expert, but I bought the basket because I felt gene editing would be the future of medicine. And I do still believe that.
"Ron，你怎么看呢？其实我最近很少谈起我在2017年开始组建的生物技术股票，曾经一度涨幅很大，但现在六年过去了，实际上它是下跌了2%。这个股票篮子专注于基因疗法，提醒一下大家。虽然我并不是生物科技专家，但我购买这个篮子是因为我觉得基因编辑将是医学的未来，我仍然坚信这一点。"
But biotech is very volatile and the entire sector has been very weak since January 2021. Rising interest rates have been a major headwind and the more so for earlier stage companies having cash has been helpful. It's really key for these companies. But even if you have cash being five years or so from market is a headwind too. The payoff is just too long versus near term rewards. So working through that all will take some time. Interest rates coming down will help. And I do think this will eventually happen.
生物科技是非常波动的，自2021年1月以来，整个行业一直很弱。不断上涨的利率是一个主要的阻力，尤其是对于那些拥有现金的早期阶段公司而言，现金是有帮助的，这对这些公司非常重要。但即使你有现金，离市场还有五年左右的时间也是一个阻力。回报太长，与短期奖励相比不划算。因此，处理所有这些需要一些时间。利率下降将有所帮助，我确信这最终会发生。
Pick up an MNA would be huge. The recent Pfizer Seagandale was encouraging. So I'm sticking with my basket. If you don't want individual stocks, I recommend the XBI ETF as a great way to play the sector. Just real quick on the MNA activity, Ron. When you look at this basket of biotech stocks that you have, are there some that part of the thesis for you is they might be an acquisition target? Yeah, two of them have already been taken out. But that was earlier in the basket, maybe before 2020. Since then, I've had no acquisition activity in my holdings. But some of them, I think, are probably ripe, especially once their cash comes down to a point of where they're somewhat in trouble and easy to bargain with, they make easier acquisition targets.
拿起MNA将是巨大的。最近的辉瑞席根代尔是令人鼓舞的。所以我还是坚持我的篮子。如果你不想买单只股票，我推荐XBI ETF作为一个很好的参与该行业的方式。关于MNA活动，Ron，请快速谈一下。当你看着你拥有的这篮生物技术股票时，你是否认为它们有些可能成为被收购的目标？是的，其中两个已经被收购了。但是那在篮子里的较早时间，可能是在2020年之前。自那以来，在我的持股中我并没有看到任何收购活动。但我认为其中一些可能很有希望，特别是当它们的资产减少到一定程度，并且变得比较困难易于讨价还价时，它们就成为更容易被收购的目标了。
April showers bring me flowers. But let's face it, April showers just bring a lot of rain. And so with that in mind, Jason, what is a stock for a rainy day? And think in terms of 2022 and what a rough year for the market and investors it was.
四月雨季给我带来了鲜花。但是，让我们面对现实，四月雨季只会带来大量的雨水。所以，在这种情况下，杰森，有什么股票是为了雨天而准备的呢？请考虑2022年市场和投资者的不景气。
So a stock for a rainy day for me is a stable stalwart business that provides ballast. Yes, you were going through last year. There were some stocks, hopefully, in your portfolio that helped you sleep at night. And I'm going to round out the world on cash basket here, Chris, actually, because when I looked at Visa and MasterCard, both actually and positive return territory over the last year, down only slightly in 2022, out performing the market handily, I felt really good as an owner of these companies.
对我来说，备用股票是一种稳定的坚实企业，提供支撑。是的，去年你正在经历这种情况。希望你的投资组合中有一些股票能帮助你安心睡觉。实际上，我要在这里补充一下现金篮子的事情，克里斯。因为当我看到Visa和MasterCard，它们在过去一年中实际上都取得了正收益，2022年仅略有下跌，在市场表现上远远超过了其他股票，作为这些公司的股东，我感觉非常好。
When you look at the five and 10-year charts, it becomes more apparent. You just want to own these and go to sleep at night. And you're going to hold on to them for a long time. I think there's all sort of people chirping out there about disruption and crypto and they're going to be left behind. And yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I remember these are big companies with a lot of resources, right? They're the ones that are investing in a lot of this stuff. These opportunities that come along the way, they're not sitting on their collective dust doing nothing.
当你看五年和十年的图表时，这更加明显。你只想拥有它们并晚上安睡。并且你会长时间持有它们。我想有各种人在谈论扰乱和加密货币，他们将被抛在后面。是的，记得这些是有很多资源的大公司，对吗？他们是那些在许多这些东西上投资的人。这些机会出现时，他们不会坐在尘埃里什么都不做。
I mean, they got the resources to invest in this evolving space, massive networks of users all around the world, and data indicates that more card users continue to use their cards more. So the tail ones are very clear. It's just so difficult to disrupt massive networks like these. And I think that's why we saw these these two companies. We saw their shares hold up so well in 2022. I remain an owner of all four that I've mentioned here in intent to remain a holder for hopefully years to come.
我是说，这些公司有资源投资于这个不断发展的领域，拥有遍布全球的大量用户网络，并且数据显示更多的卡用户继续使用他们的卡。因此，这些领域的尾部已经很清晰了。但要破坏这样的大型网络是非常困难的。我认为这就是为什么我们在2022年看到这两家公司的股价表现如此出色的原因。我仍然持有我提到的这四家公司的股票，并打算为未来的几年继续持有。
Ron Gross, what about you?
罗恩·格罗斯，你呢？
Burke Sheer Hathaway, though. I do know it's boring and Warren and Charlie aren't going to be around forever, but it's a collection of more than 60 wonderful businesses, including BNSF Railway, Geico, Mid American Energy, Clayton Holmes. My personal favorite, Dairy Queen, Love Dairy Queen. Insurance is about 20% 7% of the business. Railways and energy 9% each manufacturing 25% each. Nicely diversified across sectors.
不过，我知道这可能有些乏味，华伦和查理也不会永远在身边，但它是一个集合了60多个出色企业的投资组合，其中包括BNSF铁路、Geico、Mid American能源和Clayton Holmes等等。我个人最喜欢的是Dairy Queen，我爱Dairy Queen。保险业约占业务的20%，铁路和能源各占9%，制造业各占25%，这一结构非常好的跨越了不同的行业领域。
Obviously from an investment perspective, big positions in Amics and Bank of America and Apple, Oxygen and Petroleum. A succession plan is in place. Greg Able will be the head of the company one day. He currently heads up the Energy Division. He's Vice Chairman of the board. Investing side is well in hand with Todd Combs and Ted Wessler managing sizable portfolios for Burke Sheer. Only 1.8 times tangible book value, $129 billion in cash, compounded value at almost 20% rate over 57 years. It allows me to sleep well at night. It is my largest position.
显然地，从投资的角度来看，我在Amics、Bank of America、Apple、Oxygen和Petroleum中拥有大量的头寸。公司已有继任计划，Greg Able将有一天成为公司的领导。他目前负责能源部门，并担任董事会副主席。投资方面由Todd Combs和Ted Wessler管理大量的投资组合，为Burke Sheer服务。公司资产只有1.8倍的有形账面价值，持有现金1290亿美元，在57年内的复合增长率接近20%。这让我可以安然入睡。这是我最大的投资头寸。
Ron, you're right. Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger. They're not immortal, although they seem like they are at times. But it really does seem like while they're not going to be around forever, this business and the blueprint for running it, both in terms of the acquisitions they make and the investments that they make. It seems like that is set up about as well as any succession planning I can think of in recent memory. A great from a complete from an operating side of the business.
Ron，你说得对。沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格并不是不朽的，尽管有时候他们似乎像是。但真的看起来，尽管他们不会永远存在，但这个企业以及运营它的蓝图，无论从他们所做的收购还是投资方面来看，都像是比我近期能想到的其他继任计划一样，都摆得异常出色。这是一种来自业务运营方面的巨大成功。
A great my only concern is future acquisitions. Warren Buffett is a master in identifying the right companies at the right price. Let's hope that that continues well into the future.
我的唯一担忧是未来的收购。沃伦·巴菲特是在正确的价格上识别正确公司的大师。希望他能一直持续下去。
All right, last but not least Jason, one actual cleaning tip. It can be specific, it can be more general enough with the investing. Let's help folks with an actual cleaning tip.
好的，最后一个问题，杰森，给我们一个真正的清洁技巧。它可以很具体，也可以更加普遍，足够有用。让我们用一个实用的清洁技巧来帮助大家。
Well, okay. So this is something, my wife a year or so ago, turn me on to this thing. I do most of the cooking in the house and I just do a lot of the cleaning as well as the dishes of least. Maybe you could just say the kitchen is my domain, Chris. But one thing she got me turned on to this dish, a dish soap bar. Instead of buying the plastic bottle filled with the dish liquid, you can buy these dish soap bars and it's just like a bar of soap. And so you're saving, you know, having to buy and either trash or hopefully recycle that plastic container. But you also, I tell you what, it lasts a lot longer because with the liquid, you just tend to overuse it. I've really become a great proponent of this dish soap bar and they come in all sorts of different shapes and sizes. So keep on the lookout for them. If you find one, give it a try. You may become a believer like I am.
嗯，好的。这是我的妻子大约一年前介绍给我的东西。我在家里大部分的烹饪工作都是我来做的，我也做很多清洁工作，至少是洗碗。也许你可以说厨房是我的领域，Chris。但是她让我对这个洗涤皂条感兴趣。你可以买这些洗涤皂条，它就像一块肥皂一样，而不是买装满洗涤液的塑料瓶。这样你既可以节省，也可以少买并且回收那个塑料容器。还有，我告诉你，它持续的时间更长，因为用液体的时候，你倾向于使用过量。我真的变成了这个洗涤皂条的极力支持者，它们有各种形状和尺寸。所以，注意寻找它们。如果你找到一个，尝试一下。你可能像我一样成为信徒。
Ron? Two weekends ago, my wife went to visit my son at college and I had the house to myself. As we do, Jason, I cooked up a whole bunch of Italian food in a thick red tomato sauce. Here's where the story goes south. Stick with me. I decided I decided I was an adult and I could make the adult decision to eat in the family room in front of the TV. And the fan was going perfectly until a big dollop of tomato sauce dropped onto our new carpet. Well, thank goodness for Google. Here's what you do. You mix two cups of cold water with one tablespoon of clear liquid detergent, apply a generous amount, blot it up, rinse. It's like it never happened.
两个周末前，我太太去看我儿子上大学了，我就独自在家。我们家惯常的做法就是一起做一堆意大利食物，浓郁的红色番茄酱。但是，事情就在这里不对劲了，跟着我听下去。我决定我是个成年人了，可以在客厅里挑个地方坐下看电视来吃饭。当风扇完全正常运作时，一个大垫子红酱掉到了我们的新地毯上。幸好有谷歌，这是你的应对方法：拿两杯冷水和一汤匙透明液体洗涤剂混合，涂上足够的量，轻轻拍干，清水冲洗。就像什么事情都没有发生一样。
Let's go to our memo in the class, Dan Boyd, Dan. Any thoughts on what you've heard or a cleaning tip of your own? So recently, I've had to take a part of vacuum to get some crackers that my son had dropped. And I realized that you can clean the filters in a lot of these modern vacuums that don't use bag filters. So I did that, cleaned it, let it dry for 24 hours. And now my vacuum works like it's brand new. You're not getting that on Bloomberg.
我们去教室里的备忘录吧，丹·博伊德，丹。听到了什么想法，或者你有什么自己的清洁技巧吗？最近，我的儿子掉了些饼干，我不得不拆开吸尘器，发现现在很多使用无袋过滤器的现代吸尘器都可以清洁滤芯。所以我就清洁了一下，让它干燥了24个小时。现在我的吸尘器就像崭新的一样好用。你在彭博新闻里可听不到这个故事。
Jason Moser, Ron Gross, thanks for being here. Thanks more after the breaks to stay right here.
Jason Moser，Ron Gross，感谢您们出席。在休息后，再次感谢您们留在这里。
This is Motley Full Money.
这是 Motley Full Money。
Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill. Howard Marx is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oak Tree Capital Management. Warren Buffett is said of him. When I see memos from Howard Marx in my mail, that's the first thing I open and read. Back in January, Motley Full Senior Analyst, Bill Mann caught up with Marx to talk about his recent memo entitled Sea Change, as well as China's effect on inflation here in the US, and the winners and losers in a world of higher interest rates.
欢迎回到Motley Full Money，我是克里斯·希尔。霍华德·马克斯是橡树资本管理公司的联合创始人和联合主席，据说沃伦·巴菲特很欣赏他的备忘录。当我在邮件中看到霍华德·马克斯的备忘录时，那是我打开并阅读的第一件事。今年1月份，Motley Full资深分析师比尔·曼与马克斯交谈，谈及他最近的备忘录《革命性的变革》，以及中国对美国通胀的影响，以及在高利率环境下的赢家和输家。
You put out a memo in December, it was called Sea Change. And in Sea Change, you describe what you see in 53 years of investing only third really, the dawn of the third era of investing. Now, obviously in that period of time, we've seen lots of fads, we've seen lots of trans, but in this case, we're talking about something that is a total transformation. And we have felt it too, but I wanted to take the opportunity to ask you to talk about what it is that you see that's happening and why you think it's happening now.
你在去年12月份发布了一份备忘录，它叫做《大变革》。在《大变革》中，你描述了你在53年的投资经历中所看到的第三个时代的黎明。当然，在这段时间里，我们看到了许多流行风潮和转变，但在这种情况下，我们谈论的是一种彻底的转型。我们也感受到了这种变化，但我想借此机会请你说说你见到了什么，并解释为什么你认为现在发生了这种变化。
I think, Bill, since the global financial crisis, which ended in 2009, we've been living in a world which was engineered to be an easy world. Some of the manifestations may not have been intentional.
我认为，自2009年结束的全球金融危机以来，我们生活在一个被设计成轻松舒适的世界里。其中一些表现可能并非刻意为之。比尔，你怎么看？
The Fed had to save the country and the world from the global financial crisis. It did so by drastically lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity through quantitative easy, the buying of bonds. And those two changes had many roundifications. And they made the world an easy place. And unusually, unnaturally, easy place for the 13 years from the 09 through the end of 21.
美联储必须拯救国家和世界避免全球金融危机。为此，它通过大幅降低利率和量化宽松，即购买债券来增加流动性。这两个变化产生了很多影响，并让世界成为一个容易的地方。这13年时间从09年到21年结束，异常且不自然的容易。
What do I mean? Well, first of all, of course, it was very easy to borrow money and it was cheap to borrow money. And borrowers did not have to commit to extensive documentation or restrictions. What we call covenants tended to disappear.
我是什么意思？首先，当然，借钱非常容易，而且借钱很便宜。借款人不必提交详细的文档或受到限制。我们所谓的契约倾向于消失。
Now, the reason for this is largely because the reduction of interest rates reduced the returns on very safe instruments like cash, T-bills, high grade bonds to the point where people who investors, especially institutions that need six or seven or eight percent a year couldn't use those things. They had to move out the risk curve in order to get the kinds of returns they needed. And that made their capital readily available to riskier companies at low interest rates.
现在，这是因为利率降低导致很安全的投资工具，比如现金、美国国债、高等级债券的收益率降至一个程度，投资者——尤其是需要每年6%、7%或8%的机构——无法使用这些工具。他们不得不承担风险，在更高的风险曲线上寻找所需的回报。这使得他们的资本以低利率变得易于可承担更高风险的公司。
The accommodative monetary policy that I described supported the economy. So we had the longest economic recovery in history. It supported the markets. We had the longest bull market in history. The declining interest rates increase the value of all assets. The theoretician says that the value of an asset is the discounted present value of all the future cash flows. If you lower the rate at which you do the discounting, the present value of future cash flows goes up. So assets became more valuable. It became, it was very difficult to default or go bankrupt in this accommodative environment. So the rate of defaults and bankruptcies was very low.
我形容的宽松货币政策支持了经济，使我们创造出历史上最长的经济复苏。它也支持了市场，创造出了历史上最长的牛市。利率的下降提高了所有资产的价值。理论学者认为一个资产的价值是所有未来现金流的折现现值。如果你降低折现率，未来现金流的现值就会增加，从而使资产变得更值钱。在这个宽松的环境下，债务违约和破产的率非常低，很难出现违约或破产。
In the prior crises I had managed money in, 1990-19102, we had two years of double digit defaults in the high-obon universe. In this case, we only had one again because of these accommodative policies. You can always go get more money.
在我所管理的以前的危机中，1990-19102年间，我们在高限制级领域中有两年的两位数违约率。 在这种情况下，由于这些宽松政策，我们只有再次遭遇一次。你总是可以去找更多的钱。
Exactly. Money was available. Yeah, a zombie company which consumed money where the debt service requirements exceeded the cash flows. As you say, it could burn money every quarter, but it was very easy for them to get more money.
确切的说，就是有钱可用。是的，这家“僵尸公司”总是比现金流入少得多的债务服务需求更多，它每个季度都会烧掉很多现金，但他们很容易就能得到更多的资金。
So an easy going environment and the main point of the memo sea change is that, number one, obviously, in 1980, I had a loan outstanding from a bank and I got a slip from the bank saying the rate on your loan is now 22 and a quarter. It seems like a lot. 40 years later, I was able to borrow it to a quarter. So I just think that interest rates don't have much further to go on the downside. So that phenomenon is largely over.
所以，这个备忘录的主要观点是，在一个轻松愉快的环境中，首先明显的是，1980年我从银行贷了款，然后我获得了一张纸条，上面写着你的贷款利率现在是22.25%。这听起来很高。40年后，我能够借到到1/4。因此，我认为利率下降的空间不大了。所以这种现象基本上结束了。
And I think that for various reasons, the Fed is not going to go back to the ultra low interest rates of the last 13 years. So we're back more to, in my opinion, a more normal environment, where it's not easy to get financed. Some people can, some can. It's not as cheap. There may be some covenants involved. It's not so easy to avoid the fault in bankruptcy. It's not so easy to avoid recession. It's just going to be a little more challenging time.
我认为由于各种原因，美联储不会再回到过去13年的超低利率水平。因此，我们回到了一个更加常规的环境，贷款并不容易。有些人可以贷到，有些人则不行。利率并不便宜，还可能会有一些契约条款。避免出现破产和经济衰退也不是那么容易了。这只是一个更具挑战性的时期。
Now, if people say, I want to go back to normal. Let's go back to normal, like 2015, 2016, 2017. That was not normal. We are in normal. This is normal. The new conditions that I describe are normal. The conditions of the last 13 years were abnormal.
现在，如果有人说“我想回到正常的生活”，让我们回到像2015年、2016年、2017年那样的正常生活，那样并不正常。我们现在才是正常的生活。这就是正常的生活。我所描述的新条件才是正常的。过去13年的条件都是异常的。
There was a brilliant chart. And I should send it to you. It was provided to me. The Bank of Japan did it. And it showed that the interest rates over the last 13 years worldwide were at 700 year lows. Probably longer than that. But they sort of ran out of the capacity to track from the beginning of recorded history in which interest was a formalized thing. We were at a 700 year low.
有一张非常出色的图表，我应该把它发给你。这是日本银行提供给我的。它显示，过去13年全球的利率是700年来的最低点。可能更长时间，但他们无法追溯到历史记录开始记录利率这个正式的事情。我们处于700年的最低点。
And what's really interesting to me, so I got my start in investing in Japan. It was the early 1990s. And so it was a very, a very incredible time to be an investor. In Japan, never did learn that lesson. Or at least they have pushed it off that the types of cleansing that you're talking about, bankruptcy is good. Bankruptcy, it hurts.
“对我来说真正有趣的是，我开始在日本进行投资。那是20世纪90年代初。这是一个非常不可思议的投资时期。在日本，他们从来没有学到那个教训。或者至少他们已经把你所谈论的那种净化推迟了，也就是破产是好的。破产会带来伤害。”
And I think that it feels bad. But in some ways, our country works best because we are really good at rewarding well invested capital and punishing poorly invested capital. And in the last 13 years, that accommodative environment made that something. You could step through it.
我认为这感觉很糟糕。但在某些方面，我们的国家表现得最好，因为我们非常擅长奖励投资有价值的资本并惩罚投资不佳的资本。在过去的13年里，这种宽松环境创造了某些机会，你可以走过去。
You know, I said in one of my memos during the pandemic that fear of bankruptcy is to capitalism as fear of hell is to Catholicism. It's what makes us on the straight and adult. It's what makes us make prudent decisions. And if you're not afraid of bankruptcy or default because the conditions are so benign and you believe that there's always a put from the fed in which they'll bail you in the economy out, then you don't have to be so prudent. So, you know, that's the downside and that creates moral hazard and all those things.
你知道，我在疫情期间的备忘录中说过，破产的恐惧对于资本主义就像地狱的恐惧对于天主教一样。这是使我们成为正直和成熟的人所必须的。这是让我们做出谨慎决策的原因。如果你不害怕破产或违约，因为环境条件如此温和，而你相信联邦政府总是有可能救市的措施，那么你就不需要那么谨慎了。所以，你知道，这就是其不利之处，会导致道德风险和其他问题。
More with Howard Marx after the break. This is Motley Full Money.
中场休息后继续听霍华德·马克斯的节目。这里是莫特利富财经。
Hey, yeah. Working from running to the other and all points in between. Took a job through mix with the bed. Well, I might have water turned the wine. Yeah. Took a job through mix with the bed. Money, water turned the wine. Yeah. Then I took a job through mix with the bed. Yeah.
嘿，是啊。忙碌地来来回回地跑。从床上起身去上班。好吧，我可能会把水变成酒。是的。去上班，和床一起混合。钞票，水变成酒。是的。然后我去上班，和床一起混合。是的。
Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill. Let's get back to my colleague Bill Mann's conversation with Howard Marx.
欢迎回到Motley Full Money。我是Chris Hill。现在让我们回到我的同事Bill Mann和Howard Marx的谈话。
There is a word that you didn't write in C-Change. To me, it was in the background and the word is China because when you're talking about, when you're talking about a 13-year period, I think you're generally talking about, you're generally talking about an interest rate environment, but the 40-year period you're talking about primarily the impacts of globalization and for a 40-year period, we had the capacity and the endless desire to export inflation to China. Is that time over as well?
在C-Change里，有一个你没有写的词。对我来说，这个词在背景中，这个词是“中国”，因为当你谈论一个13年的期间，我认为你通常在谈论一个利率环境，但对于一个40年的时间段，你主要谈论全球化的影响，而在这40年的时间段内，我们有能力和无尽的渴望将通货膨胀导出到中国。那么这个时代也结束了吗？
Well, I would rephrase. I wouldn't say we exported inflation. I'd say we exported a sourcing, which had the effect of fighting inflation. I think there was a 25-year period there, maybe it was something like 1990 to 2015, when consumer durable prices overall declined by 40%. And it didn't happen because the US production got cheaper. It happened because we imported more and more and more from Asia. When we talk about durables, we're talking about appliances and things of that nature, TVs. The raise your hand if you have an American-made TV. The point is, it's a coffee table. This was the period that coincided with what I call China's economic miracle.
好的，我会重述一下。我不会说我们出口了通货膨胀，而是说我们出口了一种采购方式，它起到了抗击通货膨胀的作用。我认为在那段时间里，可能是1990年到2015年的某个时期，耐用消费品的总体价格下降了40%。这并不是因为美国的生产成本变得更便宜了，而是因为我们从亚洲进口了越来越多的产品。当我们谈到耐用消费品时，我们指的是家电以及电视等物品。请举手，有多少人拥有一台美国制造的电视机？重点是，这只是一张咖啡桌。这个时期正好与我所谓的中国经济奇迹相吻合。
I'm not going to put you on the spot, but do you know how much Chinese GDP is up in the last 42 years? It's something like, so you mean aggregates? How many what percentage, or how many times has it doubled? Has it tripled? Oh, I think it's like eight times. It's 100 times. So I was really wrong. In 1978, you did put me on the spot by not putting me on the spot. In 1978, as I recall, Chinese GDP was 177 billion dollars. And most recently, it was 17.8 trillion. So that's 100x. And our business made China rich and allowed them to move people from the farms to the cities and into manufacturing from agriculture and so forth. But it's largely over. Ironically, there are a lot of people who want to do outsourcing who say, now, China's too expensive. Because the Chinese miracle raised the per capita income and the wage in China. And you can't get worked on as cheaply over there anymore as you used to. Right on a yield basis, it doesn't really work out any right? Exactly.
我不想让你感到尴尬，但你知道过去42年中国的GDP增长了多少吗？大约是多少，你是指增量吗？它增长了多少百分比，或者翻了多少倍？是三倍吗？哦，我想是翻了八倍。它翻了一百倍。所以我真的错了。我记得1978年，你并没有让我感到尴尬，当时中国的GDP是1770亿美元。最近它是17.8万亿美元。所以这是翻了一百倍。我们的业务让中国变得富有，并使他们能够把人从农村搬到城市，从农业到制造业等等。但它大部分都结束了。具有讽刺意味的是，有很多人想要外包，他们说，现在中国太贵了。因为中国的奇迹提高了中国的人均收入和工资。在那里你再也不能像过去一样廉价地劳动了。在收益方面，它真的不起作用对吧？完全正确。
So you have people going to countries other than China, the anomalies or Bangladesh or examples. But then you have the fact that the pandemic demonstrated that we have to worry about sources of supply. So there's a force going on now called the globalization, which is a reverse hole of the sourcing abroad in some small ways. But that will stop or undo the progress against inflation that globalization produced. So you can't have it both ways. It can't be both ways. And you're exactly right that it was a continuum. And if you, if raising China's economic standards was a goal. And from the outset, from both sides, it was a goal. Richard Nixon looked at China and said, having a China in poverty is not it's not helpful for anybody. So it was absolutely a policy goal. But they've done it. You are at the point now where China is no longer competing on price. Now if inflation, if inflation average, I don't, I'm not 100% sure on this data. But if it averaged 2% a year in this country in the last 30 years. And that benefited from the process I described in which durable prices went down by 40%. What would inflation have been if durable prices hadn't gone down by 40%? And if durable prices are not going to go down by 40% in the years ahead, what will inflation be? And so I think we may have a slightly higher normal rate of inflation than we did over this period.
所以你有一些人去中国以外的国家，像印度或孟加拉国等。但是事实是，这次疫情表明我们必须担心供应来源。现在有一个被称为全球化的力量在起作用，逆转了一些小规模的境外采购。但是这将停止或削弱全球化抵抗通货膨胀所产生的进展。所以你不能两全其美。正如你所说，这是一个连续体。如果提高中国经济水平是一个目标。从一开始，双方的目标都是这样的。尼克松看着中国说，让中国陷入贫困对任何人都没有帮助。所以这绝对是一个政策目标。但是他们做到了。现在中国不再以价格竞争。如果通货膨胀在过去30年平均每年达到2%。而我对这个数据不是100%确定。但如果耐用品价格没有下降40%，通货膨胀会是多少？如果在未来几年中，耐用品价格不会下降40%，通货膨胀会是多少呢？所以我认为我们可能会有一个稍微高一些的通胀率。
So you do agree with me that we exported inflation inflation. I'm still stinging from the fact that my guess at the exponents were, you know, for how much China has grown was so far off. But it does so. I mean, even if you know your, even if you know your stuff, exponential math or exponential factors are really, really hard to contemplate.
所以你同意我的观点，我们出口了通货膨胀。我还是觉得很痛心，因为我对中国的增长程度的指数的猜测，你知道的，离实际太远了。但事实就是这样。我的意思是，即使你掌握了知识，指数数学或指数因子真的非常难理解。
So what we're suggesting and what you're suggesting in C change is that it is that a lot of the things that have not worked for the last 13 years maybe are about to.
我们的建议是，在C变化中，很多过去13年没有起作用的事情现在可能即将起作用，这就是我们所建议的，也是你们所建议的。
It's not yes, no black white. It's golf course. Things that were penalized in that period will be less penalized or may be benefited.
这句话的意思是：这不是简单的是非黑白之分，而是像高尔夫球场一样。那个时期被惩罚的事情现在会受到更少的惩罚，甚至可能会得到好处。
Great example. High yield bonds. That's one of the, that's really where I started as a money manager in 78. And it's a big part of what we do here at Oak Tree.
太棒了！高收益债券。那是我从1978年开始作为资产管理人的真正起点。这是橡树公司业务的重要组成部分。
And about a year ago, they yielded for something. And that was the low return world. They were not useful to the institutional client trying to make 6, 7 or 8, who would invest in low quality debt to make for something.
大约一年前，他们为了某些事情做出了妥协。那就是低回报的世界。对于试图获得6、7或8％收益率的机构客户来说，他们并不实用，这些客户投资于低质量债务以获得一些收益。
Well, today it yields about 8. That's a usable rate of return. So that's just this very simple example of what you're talking about.
嗯，今天的回报率大约为8％。这是一个可用的回报率。这只是你所说的非常简单的例子。
The, the available, the ability of returns now that I would describe as helpful or ample. They're not the highest I've ever seen. They're not. I wouldn't describe them as the most generous, but at least they're usable.
这些可用的回报能力，我会说是有点帮助和充裕的。它们不是我见过的最高的。它们不是。我不会说它们是最慷慨的，但至少它们可用。
Another example is one of the things we invest in here and are well known for is distressed debt. Well, guess what? There wasn't much to stress. If you could just keep raising capital. Yes, right.
另一个例子是我们在这里投资并且出名的一项就是困境债务。可是，猜猜看？其实并没有什么压力。只要你能持续筹集资金。是的，对的。
Yeah. So, so, you know, the default rate in my first 30 years in that position, the default rate averaged to around 4% a year. In the last 13 years, averaged something more like 2. So very little default, not much for default, distressed debt funds to do.
是的，你知道，在那个职位上的前30年里，违约率平均大约在4％左右。在过去的13年里，平均约为2％左右。所以，几乎没有违约，对于拥有困境债务基金来说，做的事情也不太多。
So we raised a smallish funds and they had moderate returns. Not our dream environment. Yeah.
所以我们筹集了一些小资金，它们有适度的回报。不太符合我们的梦想环境。是的。
It sounds to me Howard like you were describing a much better environment than we've had in a long time for, for pensions. Yes. For pulled money. Yeah. Did they have struggled so much for the return for their current obligations?
听起来，霍华德，你描述的养老金环境好得多，比我们很长一段时间以来的情况要好。是的，对于取出的资金来说是这样。是的，他们为了满足现有义务的回报一直在努力奋斗。
What are some of the other areas you think will benefit from the new world order?
你认为新世界秩序还会惠及哪些其他领域呢？
Well, it's basically everything on the lending side of the equation. That's one. So ranging from cash, which now has a few percent positive return through treasuries, through high grades, through high yield, private lending.
嗯，基本上是指在借贷方面的所有事情。这是其中之一。所以说，从现在有几个百分点正回报的现金开始，到国库券、高评级债券，再到高收益、私人借贷等都包括在内。
Now yields, low double digits. It used to be mid-high single digits. Distressed debt funds should be able to make more money in a more target rich environment.
现在的回报率是低两位数。以前是中高一位数。在这样一个更有目标的丰富环境中，受苦债务基金应该能够赚更多的钱。
And then there is the one off here and there. If you want to look at the things that have been heard, an example is the emerging markets.
然后还有一件事情，就是这里和那里的特例。如果您想看已经听说过的事情，比如新兴市场。
The emerging markets face significant challenges. They've incurred a lot of debt, denominated, and dollars. And they don't have that much access to dollars.
新兴市场面临巨大挑战，因为它们已经负债累累，而且债务以美元计价。此外，它们并没有太多美元的获取渠道。
This low return world, the hunt for return on investors part, allowed made dollar capital available to the emerging markets through loans, which was not as not normally been the case.
这个收益低的世界，投资者寻求回报的行为，通过贷款向新兴市场提供了大量美元资金，这在以往并不常见。
So they'll struggle with paying those off those loans. But the securities are starting from a cheap place. If you cheap enough, they're going to go up. I'm not saying that.
所以他们将在偿还那些贷款方面有些困难。但是这些证券是从一个便宜的地方开始。如果足够便宜，它们就会上涨。我并不是说这样。
But there are two piles of securities or assets. There's one pile that everybody knows about, feels they understand, feels good about, feels are seemingly and prudent and they're optimistic about.
但是，有两堆证券或资产。有一堆是每个人都知道的，感觉理解，感觉良好，似乎是谨慎和乐观的。
Then there's another pile of things that people don't know about, don't understand, don't feel good about, think are unseemly and they're pessimistic about which pile contains the bargains.
还有另一堆人们所不了解、不理解、不感到满意、觉得不得体且持悲观态度的事物堆，其中包含了那些好的买卖。
It's the latter. Now that's not to say, I want to say very clearly for your viewers and listeners, that's not to say that everything on the latter pile is a bargain. But that's but the bargains are in that pile.
这是后一种情况。现在我想非常清楚地告诉你们的观众和听众，这并不意味着后一堆里的所有物品都是便宜货。但是便宜货就在那堆里。
I've made a living for 50 odd years buying things on that pile, buying and doing the things other people didn't want to do.
我用那堆东西挣了50多年的钱，买了不少别人不想碰的东西，也做了一些别人不愿意做的事情。
So you get to China. What's the word that people have been applying to China for the last year or so? Uninvestable.
那么你来到了中国。人们最近一年快要把什么词用于形容中国呢？那就是“不适合投资的”。
Yeah, I like to hear okay. I like to hear that because I say okay, nobody else is willing to do it. That means there's not much optimism in the prices. That means the prices may be low, maybe too low. Let's take a hard look.
是的，我喜欢听“好的”。我喜欢听到那个，因为我说“好”的时候，没有其他人愿意这样做。这意味着价格中没有太多的乐观情绪。这意味着价格可能很低，甚至可能太低了。让我们认真地看一看。
That's how we think around here.
这就是我们这里的思维方式。如果需要的话，可以改为：我们这里就是这样想的。
That's going to do it for this week's Motley Full Money Radio Show. The show is mixed by Dan Boyd. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.
这就是本周的Motley Full Money广播节目了。节目由丹·博伊德混音。我是克里斯·希尔。谢谢收听。我们下次见。