YC demo day valuation tensions, how VCs can find gems, Substack's performance & more | E1716

发布时间 2023-04-07 22:06:59 来源

Hey, everybody. It's Friday, first up on this show. I'm going to talk about why commoners demo day and why a lot of VCs are hand-ranging and complaining about, oh my God, the high valuations of Y-Cobard air companies. I will explain why there's resentment from the investment community at Y-Cobard air companies getting $20 million evaluations when non-YC companies with the same amount of traction are commanding five or $10 million evaluations. And I'll explain the three ways investors can avoid paying $20 million, but if they want to do the work. Three specific strategies to avoid overpaying when you're investing in startups.

大家好，今天是星期五，我们节目的第一部分，我想谈一谈为什么普通人演示日如此重要，而为什么很多风投公司对 Y-Cobard air 公司的高估值感到手足无措和抱怨。我将解释为什么投资界会对 Y-Cobard air 公司获得 2000 万美元的估值感到不满，而同样有一定实绩的非 YC 公司仅仅能得到 500 万或者 1 千万的估值。我还会解释投资者如何避免支付 2000 万美元，但要想做好其中的工作，必须采取三种特定的策略来避免在投资初创企业时过度支付。

I'll also talk about what Y-Combinator companies should do in terms of raising money before demo day or listening to the basic rule of waiting till demo day. I have an answer that might be very different. I'm going to give you an actual script on how to email VCs that you're not raising money in order to bait them into investing before demo day. There's a very critical language I'm going to share with you.

我还要谈谈 Y-Combinator 公司在展示日前筹集资金方面应该做什么，或者听从等到展示日的基本规则。我有一个可能非常不同的答案。我将为您提供一个实际的脚本，告诉您如何向风险投资家发送电子邮件，说明您不在筹集资金的同时，引诱他们在展示日之前投资。我将与您分享一些非常关键的语言。

Then I'm going to go through the pros and cons of party rounds. A lot of people have feelings about party rounds. Pro and con. I'm going to go through those. I'm going to talk about why the leads are important for startups in these seed rounds. And then I'll quickly break down a law firm named Paul Hastings, non-negotiable expectations for junior employees. It just went viral. I had a lot to say about it.

那么我接下来将讨论聚会轮的利弊。许多人对聚会轮都有不同的看法，正反两方面。我将详细论述聚会轮对初创企业来说为什么产生了如此重要的影响。然后我会简要介绍一下一家名为保罗·黑斯廷斯的律师事务所针对初级员工的不可谈判的期望，并且它刚刚在网络上火了起来。我有很多想说的。

And then we'll talk about Substack. Is it a good business to invest in? That's $600 million valuation or not? Well, we just got, we funder released an axios covered. The amount of money Substack is making. And I'll talk about what Substacks actual valuation is.

接下来我们将谈论Substack。投资Substack是个好生意吗？它的估值是600 Million美元吗？我们刚刚获得了一份由Axios报道的Substack融资数据，以及我会谈论Substack的实际估值。

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Hey everybody, welcome back to this week in startups. It's Friday and I'm still in Tahoe. If you're watching the video, you can see the massive amount of snow behind me on the slopes and very excited that this extended season because of the atmospheric rivers we had here in California. They had 50 feet of snow in Tahoe record twice as much as we normally have per year and that means some spring skiing. So I'm wrapping up the old spring break with the kids and I've hit 36 days of skiing today will be 37 for those of you counting trying to hit 40.

大家好，欢迎回到这周的创业节目。现在是周五，我仍然在塔霍。如果你看视频，你可以看到我背后大片的雪山，我对这个因为加州大气河而延长的季节感到非常兴奋。塔霍有50英尺的雪，是我们正常一年的两倍，这意味着可以享受春季滑雪。所以我和孩子们一起度过了旧时的春假，我今天已经滑了36天，你们可以帮我数数，今晚会是第37天，我想尽可能多滑到40天。

Okay, lots of news and the biggest news, you know, twice a year, why combinator and accelerator here in Silicon Valley has a demo name and two or 300 companies graduate from that awesome program. It's a great program. I've had many companies I've invested in go to I see highly recommend everybody go to I see, but there's hand ringing that goes on when demo day happens. So I thought I would recap the controversy and explain a little bit about this tension.

好的，有很多新闻，其中最大的新闻是，每年两次，在硅谷，为什么联合孵化器和加速器有一个演示名称，有两三百家公司从这个神奇的计划毕业。这是一个很棒的计划。我已经投资的很多公司都去过I see高度推荐每个人去看看，但是当演示日到来时，总会有些手忙脚乱。所以我想回顾一下争议，并解释一下这种紧张气氛的一些事情。

There's a lot of tweets going on this is very inside baseball, which is why you listen to this week in startups. I'll tell you exactly what's happening on the inside at accelerators that do demo days. So what's a demo day? What's an accelerator?

有很多推特正在发布，这非常内部行业化，这就是为什么你会听这周创业的原因。我会告诉你加速器内部的示范日正在发生什么。那么什么是展示日？什么是加速器？

An accelerator, which program pioneered really is a 12, 16 week program. I have one called launch accelerator. We've had 28 classes of seven companies each. So and we've had great success with it. We've had multiple companies become worth over a hundred million dollars, multiple company and we've had a company become worth a billion dollars. And it's a relatively new program. It's only been around for a couple of years.

一种名为“launch accelerator”的加速器项目创始实际上是一项为期12-16周的项目。我们已经开设了28个班级，每个班级有七家公司。我们已经取得了巨大的成功。我们已经有多个公司的价值超过了一亿美元，甚至有一个公司的价值超过了十亿美元。这是一个相对较新的项目，才成立了几年。

So these accelerators act as a way for entrepreneurs to learn some skills, have accountability for 12 weeks, build a network, get a small amount of money. I think why comedy currently does 125k. We do 100. We tend to invest a half million dollars in the companies after they graduate. Why comment here? Copy that from us and they do 325 and think or 375. And so it's just a great way to start on second base as a founder. And the application process typically results in a small percentage of people getting in. I think in YC's case, it's two or three percent of people get in and they get a large number of applications.

所以，这些加速器可以帮助创业者学习一些技能，在12周内承担责任，建立网络，获得一定数量的资金。我认为为什么喜剧目前有125K的资金。我们只有100K。我们通常在公司毕业后投资50万美元。为什么在这里评论？从我们这里复制并投资325或375。因此，这是作为创始人在第二个基础上开始的好方法。申请过程通常会导致少数人入选。我认为，在YC的情况下，只有2或3％的人入选，而他们收到大量申请。

So what are the controversies here? Well, there are so many people applying because YC is now a worldwide program. We do English language startups because they don't have many multilingual people and we don't have people on the ground in other regions. So we don't do startups in India or Japan or China. As an example, there's other accelerators on the ground there would be better for a founder to go to those, frankly. But they claim YC and I don't have any reason to doubt them.

那么，这里有什么争议？嗯，因为YC现在是一个全球性的计划，所以有很多人申请。我们为英文创业公司提供支持，因为他们没有多语言人才，而且我们在其他地区没有相关人员。所以我们不会为印度、日本或中国的初创公司提供支持。事实上，如果创始人能够去当地的加速器，那将是更好的选择。但他们声称参加了YC，我没有理由怀疑他们。

20,000 applications the most ever 1.4% accepted rates. So it's actually gone down and 52% accepted with just an idea and no product 77% accepted without revenue. So they're accepting people early and the issue that comes up is valuation.

有20,000份申请，这是有史以来最多的，接受率只有1.4％。所以实际上它下降了，52％的申请是基于想法而没有产品，77％的申请没有收入。所以他们早期就接受了人们的申请，而问题是估值。

YC has had an ethos of being a little adversarial on the margins with the investment community. Why? Well, the investment community resents YC because they get to invest at a $2 million valuation. They put in this money at a $2 million valuation. It's a great deal for YC. In truth, the amount of work it takes to run accelerator is I kid you not 20 times the amount of work it takes to be a seed investor, an angel investor, or a venture firm 20X the cost the time the effort. It is a massive amount of money.

YC一直以来在投资社区中具有一种有点对抗性的品牌理念。为什么呢？因为投资社区对YC有些不满，因为它们只投资了200万美元的估值。他们以这个估值投入了资金。这对YC来说是一笔好生意。实际上，经营加速器所需的工作量是有史以来最高的，确实需要比做种子投资者、天使投资者或风险投资公司多20倍的成本、时间和精力。这是一笔庞大的财富。

So although you're getting that $2 million valuation, you have to provide a program. You have to be there for 300 founders or whatever it is that tech stars and YC are accept and maybe 600 per year. I think it is between each of those programs. Think about how many conversations have to happen.

所以，虽然您获得了200万美元的估值，但您必须提供一个计划。您必须为300位创始人提供支持，或者为Tech Star和YC所接受的任何数量（可能每年达到600人）。我认为这是在这些计划之间进行的。想想需要多少次对话才能完成这些工作。

Now also Paul Graham had a very bad experience like many founders did 20, 30 years ago with VCs. The founder friendly era of venture capital is a recent phenomenon. It's only the last 15 years that founders were able to gain power over venture capital and say, you know what? You can't kick me off my board. I want to maintain control of my board. I get to pick my VCs because there's many more VCs and founders have gotten smarter. And also a large number of the folks at YC have hacked angel investors and venture capital.

现在，像很多20、30年前的创始人一样，保罗·格雷厄姆也有了非常糟糕的与风险投资资本家的经验。创始人友好型风险投资资本主义时代是一个近期的现象。仅仅在过去的15年里，创始人才有能力掌握风投的权力，并且说：“你知道吗？你不能把我踢出董事会。我要保持对董事会的控制。我可以选择我的风险投资资本主义者，因为有更多的风险投资资本主义者和创始人变得更聪明了。此外，YC的很多人已经突破了天使投资和风险投资领域。

Now I'm an expert on angel investing and we're going to bug on it in fact. And I can tell you that founders are very clever. So when it comes to fundraising, they largely on their own. This isn't YC has figured out hacks. And one of the great hacks is that YC says, don't raise money before demoting. They kind of get everybody to agree to that. Now if you're a YC founder, I would totally ignore that rule. And I would raise from people while you're in the program.

现在我是天使投资方面的专家，实际上我们要详细讨论一下。我可以告诉你，创始人非常聪明。因此，当涉及筹资时，他们很大程度上是自己搞定的。这不是YC已经找到了一些黑客技巧。其中一个伟大的黑客技巧是，YC说，在展示之前不要筹集资金。他们有点让每个人都同意这一点。现在，如果你是YC的创始人，我会完全忽略这个规则。我会在项目期间向人们筹集资金。

But if you want to take their advice and build up all that energy until demo day, then on demo day, they do this thing called a handshake protocol. It's kind of I wouldn't say high pressure, but it's high pressure. Basically, there is this ethos put out there this, you know, aura that all the rounds are closing. I can tell you probably only the top 10 20%. There's really a sense of urgency. The rest take a month or two to close.

但是如果你想听从他们的建议，在演示日之前积累所有的能量，那么在演示日，他们会进行一种叫做握手协议的事情。这种协议有点紧张（我不会说是高压，但它确实是高压的）。基本上，有一种理念在这里宣扬，表现出所有轮次都要结束的氛围。我可以告诉你，可能只有前10或20%的人能感受到这种紧迫感。其他人可能需要一个月或两个月才能结束。

So 90% of the companies take two months to close, but they all put out the front that hates closing. And they do some unnatural acts in terms of getting people to close. They might do increasingly high valuations. So they say, if you invest this week, it's 15 million next week, it's 16 million the week after it's 18 million, and then it's 20 million really weird stuff like that. And I've heard Sam who used to some woman who used to run YC, he doesn't agree with the stuff. And he wasn't in control of it. Right. The founders get to decide what they do.

那么90%的公司需要两个月的时间来结束，但他们都表现得不愿意结束。为了让大家结束，他们会采取一些不自然的举动。他们可能会逐渐提高估价。他们会说，如果你这周投资，它价值1500万，下周价值1600万，再过一周就是1800万，这种很奇怪的事情。我听过Sam谈过，他不同意这种做法，但他没有掌控局面。对啊，创始人有决定权。

But there's a thing called a party round. And the party round means no investor sets the valuation returns. You get a bunch of dentists, a bunch of high net worth individuals, perhaps some seed funds. And I'll be honest, a lot of neophytes. When I've gone to demo day, it would be like maybe 20% people in the industry and then 80% people who are somewhat new to the industry. And those folks are going to make bets in a pretty frisky way, I would say. It's kind of like new poker players. They can play a lot of hands. They, you know, they're kind of predictable. They may not be as savvy.

有一种叫做派对轮的东西。派对轮意味着没有任何投资者设置估值回报。你会得到一群牙医，一群高净值个人，也许还有一些种子基金。说实话，很多新手。当我去看展示日时，也许有20%的人在这个行业内，剩下80%的人比较新。这些人会以一种相当冒险的方式进行投注。这有点像新的扑克玩家。他们可以玩很多手牌。他们比较可预测。他们可能不那么精明。

And so what does savvy founders do? They set their valuations very high. There's a valuation number for these, for this stage of company. It's five to 10 million dollars. YC companies can sometimes ask for 15 or 20 million dollars. And that makes everybody lose their minds. And then they go to Twitter and twice a year, we have this big debate over valuations. Are the valuations too high? I might have a surprising answer for you.

那么聪明的创始人们会怎么做呢？他们会将公司的估值定得非常高。对于这个阶段的公司来说，有一个估值数值，大约在500万至1000万美元之间。YC公司有时会要求1500或2000万美元。这让每个人都失去了理智。然后他们去Twitter上，每年两次我们都会就估值问题展开大辩论。这些估值过高吗？我可能有一个出人意料的答案。

Now, while I would pass on those 15 to 20 million dollar valuations, other people might not. Let me explain.

现在，虽然我可能不会接受那些 1500 万到 2000 万美元的估值，但其他人可能会。让我解释一下。

There are three ways, three, one, two, three ways for you to avoid paying 20 million dollars.

你有三个方法可以避免支付二千万美元。三个，一个、两个、三个方法。

Number one, you could very easily meet with three founders today over Zoom for three months. And that would be 200 or so companies. You would basically do one-on-one meetings with 200 companies. And you would find all the companies who didn't get into YC who didn't ask for a 15 or 20 million dollar valuation.

首先，你可以在Zoom上轻松地与三位创始人见面，持续三个月。这样你可以见到大约200家公司，并与每一家公司进行一对一的会议。接着，你可以筛选出那些没有进入Y Combinator公司，也没有提出15或20百万美元的估值的公司。

They would be in the five to 10 million. And then you'd sort them and let's say you wanted to invest in five companies. You would be able to invest in five companies at, I would say, on average, half the valuation of a YC company, which means you would essentially be like investing in 10 companies.

它们会在五到十百万之间。然后你要对它们进行分类，假设你想在五家公司中投资。你可以在平均估值为Y Combinator公司的一半的条件下投资五家公司，这意味着你实际上就像在投资十家公司。

So you can invest in 10 companies for the price of five YC. And I can tell you in that process, you would find companies that are equally good because at this stage, not me, one of the greatest angel investors of all time, not Y-combinator, certainly the greatest accelerator of all time by far.

那样投资十家公司的费用只有五个YC。在这个阶段，你会发现同样好的公司，因为不是我，这个最伟大的天使投资者之一，也不是Y-combinator，当然迄今为止最伟大的加速器。

I'm tech star, I was right behind the market, I shouldn't say it by far. But one of the top two of all time, I'd like to think minds in the top three, but you get 10 swings of bat and set a fight.

我是技术之星，我跟上市场的步伐，我不应该这么说。我认为我是有史以来前两名之一，我的智商应该在前三，但是你可以用十个球杆来比拼胜负。

So why wouldn't everybody do that one simple thing? Because a lot of work and people don't want to work. So if YC is bringing you free-vetted companies, remember, they only accept one and a half percent.

那么为什么不是每个人都做这件简单的事呢？因为需要付出很多的努力，而有些人不想付出努力。所以，如果 YC 给你带来已经审核过的免费公司，请记住，他们只接受百分之一点五的申请。

That's like going and hiring people from Harvard Business School or Stanford GSB. You've used Stanford or Harvard as a filtering mechanism so you don't have to. But is the person coming out of Harvard GSB or Stanford, sorry, Stanford GSB program or Harvard's MBA program? Are they the same price as somebody coming out of Fordham's MBA program or an MBA program from a university in Canada? Of course not. They're twice the price.

那就像是去聘请哈佛商学院或斯坦福商学院的人一样。你用哈佛或斯坦福作为筛选机制，这样你就不用费心了。但是从哈佛商学院或斯坦福斯坦福大学毕业的人，对吗，或者哈佛的MBA项目？他们的价格和来自福特汉姆大学的MBA项目或加拿大大学的MBA项目的人一样吗？当然不是。他们的价格是两倍。

So you pay for value. And the value here is that the YC companies have been mentored by very, very successful YC partners and they've been filtered by very, very successful investors at YC.

那么你是为价值付费。这里的价值在于，YC公司得到了非常成功的YC合伙人的指导，并且已经被YC非常成功的投资者过滤过了。

The second thing you can do is you can start your own damn accelerator. If you're so jealous of YC, then make one. And you know what? Sequoia has one. Now they started their own program. I have one that I've had for five years. There's plenty of other options out there. You could go make one.

你可以做的第二件事是自己开办加速器。如果你这么嫉妒YC，那就自己创立一个。而且你知道吗？Sequoia有一个。现在他们开始自己的项目了。我有一个已经持续了五年。还有很多其他的选择。你可以去创办一个。

But I can tell you that would be even more money and time and effort than just doing the three meetings a day for three months. So that is the second way that you could do this.

但是我可以告诉你，那要比每天进行三次会议，连续持续三个月来的花费更多，需要更多的时间和精力。因此，这是你可以做的第二种方式。

The third thing you can do, very simply, is wait. Meet 30 founders you love at YC.

你可以做的第三件事，非常简单，就是等待。在 YC 上认识 30 个你喜欢的创始人。

Wait 30 days, write all their names down. Email each one of them 30 days and say, Hey, I would love to jump on the cloth and see how things are going. Of those 30, I guarantee you 25, 20, depending on your victim may not be random.

等待30天，将所有他们的名字记下来。给每个人发一封邮件，说，“嘿，我很想跳进布料中看看事情的进展。”保证你会有25或20个回复，具体取决于你选的受害者是不是随意的。

You may pick the best ones. But I would say between 20 and 25 will still have their rounds open. I would say maybe 25. So I think five will be closed like 15, 20% will be closed.

你可以挑选最好的。但我觉得还有大约20到25个位置是开放的。我会说可能是25个。因此，我认为会有五个位置关闭，大约15到20%的位置将关闭。

The other ones will still be open. And if they're not open, they would be open to fundraising because founders always will take more money. Or you could wait a year and then contact them and say, Hey, I would love to get an update in the business of those 30, about 20% will have reached the next milestone product market fit and some revenue.

其他的公司还会继续开展业务。如果它们暂时关闭了，创始人们总是会希望得到更多的资金支持的，所以你可以尝试向它们募资。或者你也可以等待一年，然后联系它们，问问这30家公司的近况。其中大约20%的公司可能已经成功打造出下一个市场产品，并且开始产生一些收益。

So those six companies you could then meet with. And if they raised that 20 million with no revenue and then they got to let's call it a million dollars in revenue, that would still be 20 X times revenue.

所以，你可以与这六家公司会面。如果这些公司在没有收入的情况下筹集了2000万美元，然后实现了100万美元的收入，那么这仍然是20倍收入。

Their valuation and the chances are you can't go from a cold sort of year later, have a million. So let's put it at something more modest like 500.

他们的估值和机会是你不能从一年后的寒冷时期开始，就能拥有一百万。因此，让我们将它降低到更适度的数字，比如500。

Now you had a company with no revenue. So they had infinite multiple. Now they have a 40 X multiple. They're not going to get more than a 40 X multiple in the public in the market.

现在，你有一家没有任何收入的公司。因此，它们的倍数是无限的。现在，它们拥有40倍的倍数。在市场上，它们不可能得到超过40倍的倍数。

So VCs or seed funds who look at them are going to say, you know what? I'll put money in at the last round's valuation. They're probably not going to get enough round. Whereas people who are normal startups, non-wicey startups that don't do this high pressure tactic have the demo day thing, do the party around where there's no VCs setting the price.

那些看这些计划书的风险投资家或种子基金会说，你知道吗？我会按上一轮估价向他们注资。他们可能得不到足够的轮次。而那些正常的初创公司，非 Wisey 公司，他们没有这种高压策略，也没有 Demo Day，也没有 VC 设定价格的聚会。

So you don't know how the price discovery happened. If you're at five or 10 million, you get the products of market, you get to a couple hundred thousand revenue.

那么，你不知道价格是怎么确定的。如果你在五百万或者一千万的范围内，你可以得到市场上的产品，并且可以获得几十万的收益。

Now you're going to get 20 million. So you're, let's call it seven million dollar valuation. You get 500 can't revenue. Now you can man the 20 million dollar valuation. So you triple your valuation.

现在你将获得两千万美元。我们称之为七百万美元的估值。你的收入为五百美元。现在你的估值可以增加到两千万美元。你的估值翻了三倍。

The other folks at YC startups, let's say they started at 20, they have to fill that valuation in. And then you can come along and you can invest in the company.

其他的YC初创企业的人员，假设他们从20岁开始创业，他们必须填补那个估值。然后你可以来投资这家公司。

And over time, private companies will have their valuations and the multiple on revenue earnings, etc.

随着时间的推移，私人公司的估值和营收收益倍数等指标也会发生变化。

But let's just do it on top of that revenue because we don't expect earnings since private companies, we want them to grow and get more customers and learn.

但是让我们在这个收入的基础上做吧，因为我们并不期望私人公司的盈利，我们希望它们能够成长并获得更多的客户，学习。

We don't really want them to throw off profits. We want all that money to go back into the company and to go back into growth and to go back into the product and go back into customer discovery.

我们其实不希望他们放弃利润。我们希望所有的钱都能重新注入公司、注入增长、注入产品和客户发现。

So all of that will result in the companies that say get to the series A, B, C, and D, especially in a down market like today, starting to sync with the public comps.

因此，所有这些将使那些能够进入A轮、B轮、C轮和D轮的公司，尤其是在像今天这样的低迷市场，开始与公共可比公司同步。

So if Uber or Airbnb are trading at five times revenue, 10 times revenue, three times revenue, whatever it is, or a SaaS company is at seven times or six times or it's a dog and it's at three times.

所以，如果Uber或Airbnb的交易额是其营收的5倍、10倍、3倍，或者一个SaaS公司是其营收的7倍或6倍，如果是狗公司，可能仅为其营收的3倍。

That's what founders in private companies will start to get. They'll get a little more credit because they're growing faster. Long way of saying there are multiple ways, aside from complaining about YC that you can deal with this. I just gave you the three. Meet with 200 companies, play the long game, start your own accelerator.

私人公司的创始人将开始获得更多信用，因为他们的增长速度更快。换句话说，除了抱怨 YC 之外，你还可以采取多种方式来应对这种情况。我刚才给了你三种方法：与200家公司见面，玩漫长的游戏，开办自己的加速器。

Hey, everybody, you know, I worked all the time with early stage companies at launch. Talking pre-series, right? Thousands of dollars in MRR, very little capital raise.

大家好，你知道吗，我一直在与初创公司一起合作。我是在项目开始的早期阶段就加入的，那时还没有进行融资轮次。这些公司的月收入可能只有几千美元，但他们的融资却非常少。

You just early in that product market fit phase and listen, sometimes they don't have their insurance. Just a month, we had a great startup.

你们现在处于产品市场适配阶段的早期阶段，有时也会遇到客户没有保险的情况。不久前，我们有一个非常出色的初创公司。

They didn't have D&O insurance. That basically protects all the directors and officers. So what do we do? We sent them right to in broker. That got them their business insurance and they did it really quick and at a great price.

他们没有董事与高管保险，这种保险基本上是保护所有董事与高管的。我们该怎么办呢？我们把他们直接送到经纪人那儿，他们很快就获得了商业保险，并且价格非常合适。

Within broker, you do a single application. Startups will get four quotes for four lines of coverage in 15 minutes.

在经纪人内，您只需提交一份申请。初创企业将在15分钟内获得四个涵盖范围的报价。

They connect you with one of their expert brokers for unmatched service that goes beyond your policy.

他们会为您联系一个专家经纪人，提供超出您保单范围的无与伦比的服务。

Listen, brokers such an amazing product that we use it here.

听着，这些经纪人提供的产品太棒了，我们在这里都在使用它。

We love it at launch. It's the insurance I use. So that should tell you everything you need to know.

我们非常喜欢推出期。这是我使用的保险。这就告诉你所有你需要知道的事情。

When you're in that seed stage, you need to get your insurance correct. You got to grow up as a company and it's a lot more affordable than you think it is.

当你处于种子阶段时，你需要搞清楚你的保险。你必须像一家成熟的公司一样成长，而且它比你认为的要便宜得多。

And you want to look like you're properly run startup. So try and broker today with the code twist and get 10% off.

你想让自己的公司看起来像是一个正规的初创企业，所以试着用这个轻松的代码来扭转形象，今天就来尝试并获得九折优惠。

They're start a package and try and broker today with the code twist and get 10% off. They're start a package at in broker.com.sextwist. That's embro.okbr.com.sextwist for 10% off.

他们正在推出一个新套餐，并尝试通过优惠码“twist”进行交易，可获得10%的折扣。您可以在embro.okbr.com.sextwist上找到他们的新套餐，使用该优惠码即可享受10%的折扣。

Thanks to the team and a broker, amazing products, amazing team, great service and we appreciate you providing us with our insurance.

感谢团队和经纪人，让我们享有了惊人的产品、惊人的团队、出色的服务，我们非常感激你们为我们提供的保险。

Okay, let's get back to the episode.

好的，让我们回到这一集的剧情。

And of course, Gary Tan, friend of this program, friend of mine, who's awesome. I'll be trying to get him on the program by him, invited him like three times, I think, to come on the program since he's taken over YC, but he's pretty busy.

当然啦，Gary Tan 是我们节目的朋友，也是我的朋友，他真的很厉害。自从他接手 YC 以来，我已经邀请他三次来参加我们的节目了，但他太忙了，我正在试图让他来。

Both savings and Francisco, which I give him a lot of credit for, he's very active and local politics here and trying to make things better.

我要给Francisco点赞，他非常努力地参与当地政治活动，力图改善情况。此外，他还很节约。

Making videos, which he makes excellent videos. If you don't know Gary Tan's videos, go check him out and also getting his hands around this program.

制作视频，他制作优秀的视频。如果你不知道Gary Tan的视频，去看看他的视频，也试着掌握这个程序。

But he started tweeting about this. He put a tweet out just the other day, I think yesterday, value investing adventure is like restricting your searches, your search for the lost keys under only brightly lit street lamps. Evaluate value to buy a public stock at its terminal growth rate, evaluate potential to buy at early stage chart.

但他开始在推特上谈论这个问题。他刚刚在推特上发布了一条推文，我想是昨天，价值投资之旅就像只在明亮的路灯下搜寻丢失钥匙。评估价值以购买公开股票的终端增长率，评估潜力以购买早期阶段证券。

I've just getting started team ability product quality market size competition high valuations exist because large possible markets represent large possible outcomes.

我才刚开始了解团队能力、产品质量、市场规模和竞争情况高估值存在的原因，因为大可能性市场代表着大可能性结果。

Competition doesn't mean a market or idea is bad. It typically means a great market that has lots of people want. I guess lots of what people want. But consensus is off the wrong and things that are out of favor that turn out to be huge.

竞争不代表市场或想法不好。通常意味着一个众人渴望的大市场。我猜这就是人们想要的大多数东西。但是共识是错误的，而那些不受欢迎的事情却变得非常大。

The best investors tend not to use heat as the same one way or the other. So he's giving you a couple pieces of vice here and he's obviously talking his own book.

最好的投资者不倾向于使用一种或另一种方式来进行热量分析。因此，他在这里给你提供了一些建议，而他显然会引用自己的经验来谈论这个话题。

So it's a combination of both those things. So in Silicon Valley, we're all talking our own book because hopefully you're talking your book because you are dedicating your life to a philosophy that you believe in.

所以这是两件事的结合。在硅谷，我们都在为自己的理念而奋斗，希望你也是。你把生命献给了一种信仰，所以我们都在讨论自己的事。

So he believes what he's saying here, but it's also in vice he's best interest. Just like I believe what I believe in. And it's also in my LPs best interest.

他相信他在这里说的话，但这也符合他的最大利益。就像我相信我所信仰的一样。这也符合我的LPs最大利益。

He's saying like you shouldn't worry about valuation here and you should just look at the ability of the product, the quality of the market size.

他的意思是你不应该担心估值问题，只要看产品能力和市场规模的质量就行了。

The most cynical approach to this is well, you invested a two million and these companies are now asking for a 15, 20, 25 million dollar valuation.

最愤世嫉俗的看法是，你投资了两百万美元，而这些公司现在要求的估值却是一千五百万、两千万、两千五百万美元。

You're 10 X up on paper in 12 weeks. That's why this resentment exists. But you shouldn't have resentment if you're an investor. You should be thankful to IC for storing these companies. And then you should deploy strategies for investing in them when you think the price is appropriate. If the price is too high now, they're going to raise money five times more. So build a relationship with the founder and then play the long game.

你在12周内的纸面收益增长了10倍。这就是为什么存在这种怨恨。但如果你是一名投资者，就不应该有怨恨。你应该感谢IC为存储这些公司所做的努力。然后，当你认为价格合适时，应该采取投资策略。如果现在价格太高，他们会再次筹集五倍的资金。所以要与创始人建立关系，然后玩长远游戏。

If you're going to be an angel investor, you should be thinking about it in a decade, two decade or three decade, hopefully, arc. And just think about your first decade. You're not going to be a hundred companies a year from tech started launch accelerator and Y combinator. I'm going to follow up with them, et cetera, et cetera. And then you'll build a relationship over time with them.

如果你想成为一名天使投资者，你应该考虑十年、二十年或三十年的时间范围，希望能形成一条漫长的弧线。首先考虑你的第一个十年。你不可能每年从科技启动加速器和Y combinator那里投资一百家公司。你应该跟进他们，并在时间的推移中建立起关系。

Harry stepings then jumped in on this. And he did this tweet. Harry stepings is a venture capitalist. Actually, told me he was inspired to do his excellent podcast, 20 minute VC by this week and start up. So Harry's a good kid. He's an adult now. But I still call him a kid because when I met him, he was very young. He's still in his 20s, I think, but what an inspiration that kid is. If you want to see how to do it, he basically studied everybody in the industry and really then made it his own.

哈利·斯泰平斯之后加入了这件事。然后他发了一条推特。哈利·斯泰平斯是一位风险投资家。实际上，他告诉我，他受到本周和启动的启发，制作了他出色的播客20分钟VC。所以哈利是个好孩子。他现在已经成年了。但我还是称他为孩子，因为当我遇到他时，他还很年轻。我想他还在二十多岁，但这个孩子真是一个灵感。如果你想看看怎么做到的，他基本上研究了行业中的每个人，然后真正把它改变成了自己的样子。

So he says founders, this is crucial. If you raise two million on 10 million, even if you do not hit it out of the park, you can raise a next round at a decent valuation markup. If you raise five million on 25 million, a K, a YC company, that's I met in that part, you have to smash it and really smash it to get of 1.5 X on that valuation within 18 months. So he's talking his book. Let me translate his book.

所以他说创始人们，这非常关键。如果你在1000万美元融资中筹集了200万美元，即使你没有打出一场大成功，你也可以在下一轮融资中以适当的估值溢价获得融资。如果你在2500万美元的融资中筹集了500万美元，像我在那个部分遇到的K和YC公司，你必须努力打击并真正取得成功，以在18个月内获得1.5倍的估值。所以他在说他的著作。让我翻译一下他的著作。

You only get this here on this week in startups, this inside baseball. I know all these people and I know when they're talking the books. Harry is an estate, stage investor. He doesn't want to pay 25 million. He wants to pay 10. If he puts two million in a 10, let's say he puts a million in a 10, he gets 10% of the company puts a million in at 20. He gets 5% of the company. So he wants a larger percentage ownership. And I believe he also believes what he's saying. So he could be talking his own book. He wants to get a good price. And this is actually good advice.

你只有在这个节目“这周创业”中才能听到这些行业内部的消息。我认识这些人，所以我知道他们在谈论什么。哈里是一个地产和舞台投资人。他不想付2500万美元，他只想付1000万美元。如果他投资200万美元在一个10万美元的公司，他将得到10%的股份；如果他投资100万美元在一个20万美元的公司，他将得到5%的股份。所以他想要更大的股份拥有率，并且我认为他也相信他所说的话。因此他可能会说出他自己的投资意见，因为他想买到一个好价钱。这实际上是一个好建议。

I said this before, if you raise a 25 and then you get to 500 K and revenue, now you've got a 50 X valuation. Now if you're at 10 million, you get to 500 K and you want to raise at 20 million, well, you got a 40 X to get to 20 and you've doubled your valuation, whereas the person with 25 million can do a flat round or possibly a down round.

我之前说过，如果你先募集2500万美元，然后实现500万美元的收入，那么你的估值将会达到50倍。现在假设你已经有1000万美元，但只实现了50万美元的收入，如果你想在2000万美元时再次募资，你需要让估值增长到40倍，这样你的估值就会加倍。而那些已经募集了2500万美元的公司，则需要进行平价募资或者进行降价募资。

Interestingly, Gary Tan, president of YC, decides to reply. So Gary Tan is out there fighting this fight. Hey, don't worry about valuation. worry about other things. And is he right? Yes and no. He replies. Product market fit is more important than your last valuation. That is the higher bit. Last valuation may matter, but it's not the low order bit.

有趣的是，YC总裁Gary Tan决定回复。所以，Gary Tan正在为这个问题而斗争。嘿，不要担心估值，而要担心其他事情。他的想法对吗？是和不是。他回复道，与你最后的估值相比，产品市场适配更重要。那才是重点。最后的估值可能有影响，但并不是最关键的点。

So he's using fancy words, higher to bit lower to bit. It's not YC people and people on Silicon Valley talk bottom line what he's saying here is most important, less important. That's what high order bit low order bit. Very important. Not as important.

所以他在用花哨的词语，高级的和简单的都有。YC的人和硅谷的人谈话都强调他在这里说的最重要的事情，其次才是不那么重要的。这就是高序位和低序位。非常重要，但不像高序位那么重要。

His point very simply, if you had bet on Airbnb or GitHub or another, you know, Coinbase, whatever great YC company, it wouldn't matter. So you should just study the product market fit. What's wrong about this is the companies don't have product market fit at the stage. Airbnb didn't have product market fit. Coinbase didn't have product market fit when they graduated YC product market fit came years later.

他的观点非常简单，如果你把赌注放在Airbnb、GitHub或其他一些很棒的YC（Y Combinator）公司中，比如Coinbase，其实都没关系。因此，你只需要研究产品市场适应性。问题在于这些公司在初始阶段都没有产品市场适应性，比如Airbnb和Coinbase在毕业时并没有产品市场适应性，而市场适应性是在以后的几年才出现的。

So it's easy to look in the review mirror and say, oh, it's Uber. It didn't matter. In my case, I think we invested a 4.5 million evaluation. It wouldn't matter if you invested a 45 or 4.5. It actually wouldn't matter. It wouldn't matter greatly because the number of shares I would have owned would have been 10% of what they would have been.

所以看起来很容易就回头看，说哦，那是Uber。这并不重要。在我的情况下，我认为我们投资了450万美元的估值。不管你投资了45还是4.5，其实都不太重要。因为我所拥有的股份数量只有原来的10%。

So this is not true with Gary Tannis thing. Product market fit is the most important thing in startups, but it doesn't trump valuation because there's another truth. If you were going to invest in one company at 25 million, you would do much better to find those five companies that are raising a 5 million and get five swings at that baton. That's a better betting strategy. You could play five hands to the flop as opposed to one. So if I told you, you've got King Queen suited and it's going to cost you $2,500 to see the flop or it's going to cost you $500 to see the flop, you know, you would rather play King Queen five times for $500. You got a low price eventually to see the flop. If you connect amazing flush, straight or, you know, big over pairs.

所以说，对于Gary Tannis的事情，这是不正确的。在创业公司中，产品市场适配是最重要的事情，但这并不能盖过估值问题，因为还有另一个真相。如果你要投资一家价值2500万的公司，你最好找到那些正在筹集500万美元的五家公司，并投资五个筹码。这是更好的下注策略。你可以打五手牌而不是一手。所以如果我告诉你，你有同花大牌和大王，看派牌需要花费2500美元，或者只需花费500美元，你会选择五次花费500美元来打游戏。你最终得到了一个低价格来看牌。如果你打出了惊人的同花，顺子或者大牌，那就更好了。

So for those of you who are outside the industry, I think of basically I should have demystified this. You'll have a lot of questions. But the party round is one of the major evils here. I just had Satya Patel on yesterday from home, bro.

所以对于不在这个行业中的人，我认为我应该把这个解释清楚。你们可能有很多问题。但是派对文化是一个主要的问题。昨天我刚刚和 Satya Patel 在家里聊过天，兄弟。

And he says having a board at the stage stage is amazing. Somebody priced around party rounds are death party rounds equal death. Why do party rounds equal death? They equal death because nobody actually cares about your business enough to fight for it when things go wrong. And you don't have a lead investor joining your board.

他说在讲台上有董事会很棒。有人定价的派对轮是死亡派对轮，为什么派对轮等于死亡呢？因为没有人真正关心你的业务到足以在事情出了问题时为之而战。而且你也没有领头的投资者加入你的董事会。

Why see has made this and the overall culture of Silicon Valley has made it cool not to have a board, not to have a board member, not to have governance, not to have a lead investor. It's just false. You want to have intelligent people. You want to have four board meetings for an hour, a quarter. You want somebody rooting for you to have a meaningful ownership percentage in your company because they'll fight for it. When somebody owns five or 10% in your company and they got skid in the game, they're going to fight for it.

为什么创业公司认为不需要董事会、董事、公司治理和主要投资者是“酷”的呢？其实这是不正确的。你需要的是有才华的人。每个季度需要四次一小时的董事会会议。你需要有某人支持你，让你在公司拥有意义重大的所有权百分比，因为他们会为此而斗争。当某人在你的公司中拥有5或10%的所有权而又对此感兴趣时，他们就会为之而奋斗。

If you don't allow anybody to have 500k or a million dollars in that seed round and you have only 50k checks, when you have problems, people like, oh, it's only 50k. I only own 10 basis points in that company. Only own 25 bips in that company. I'll let it die. It's only 50k. But if they had 500k or a million, they'd be like, you know what, we have to fight for this company. Let's come up with some strategies and they would pick up your call on a Saturday.

如果你不允许任何人在那种股份轮中获得50万或100万美元，而只有50,000美元支票，当你遇到问题时，像，哦，只有50,000美元。我只拥有该公司的10个基点。只拥有该公司的25个基点。我会让它死的。但如果他们有50万或100万美元，他们会说，“你知道吗，我们必须为这家公司而战。让我们想出一些策略，并且他们会在星期六接听电话。”

As opposed to just, you know, I got a Saturday night. I'm going to go work with the company that I own 10% of. So party rounds, not a great idea. Satya Patel is exactly right.

与仅仅拥有一个周六晚上不同，我会去和我拥有10%的公司一起工作。所以派对活动并不是个好主意。Satya Patel完全正确。

So what can we learn from this? Very simply. 98.5% of you aren't getting into YC and the last two classes, you know, there's tens of thousands of you who didn't get an email me YC at launch.co, the letter Y, the letter C for YC on the letter at launch.co. Email me your YC application.

那么，我们从中可以学到什么呢？很简单。98.5%的人无法进入 YC，而在最近的两届中，有成千上万的人并没有收到我的电子邮件，我的电子邮件地址是 YC@launch.co，其中“YC”代表 YC。请通过邮件向我发送你的 YC 申请。

I know many people put them in this Friday, the day the show came out. So it's probably listening to this over the weekend or the next week. Just email me and my team. I'm going to do about 30 meetings next week. So you might get me on the call. We're going to just do 15, 20 minute calls with anybody who emails us their YC on the letter application. We get to know you. Maybe we put an investment in.

我知道许多人在这个星期五，也就是这个节目播出的日子里把它们放了出来。所以它很可能会在周末或下周被听到。如果需要，请发邮件给我和我的团队。我下周要进行大约30个会议。所以你可能会打到我的电话。我们将与任何通过电子邮件向我们发送他们的 YC 申请的人进行 15 到 20 分钟的通话。我们想要了解你。也许我们会做一笔投资。

Maybe you join founder at university or our accelerator or we invest in your company or at least we get to know you put you in our database. Follow up with you in three, six months and maybe we get to talk about your idea and give you some ideas or some feedback on it and feedbacks great at the early stage, especially from a team like ours, which makes hundreds of investments a year as well.

也许你可以在大学里加入我们的创始人团队，或者参加我们的加速器项目，或我们可以投资你的公司，至少我们能认识你，并把你的信息放入我们的数据库中。我们会在三个或六个月后跟进，也许我们可以谈论一下你的想法，并在早期阶段提供一些反馈或建议，从我们这样每年进行上百次投资的团队中获得反馈尤其重要。

So if you didn't get into YC send your YC application send me your rejection letter as well. YC at launch.co. Send me your rejection letter. I want to see why they said no. And then you and I can talk about that and figure out what's valid about it. Because if they do not accept you, that doesn't mean you're not going to be successful.

如果你没能进入YC，把你的YC申请和拒信都发给我吧。YC at launch.co. 把你的拒信发给我。我想看看他们为什么拒绝你。然后你和我可以谈谈，并找出其中的问题所在。因为即使他们不接受你，也不意味着你不会成功。

There's more successful companies that didn't go to YC than did. Obviously. So by all means do not be in any way dissuaded from pursuing your entrepreneurial vision. If you don't get into YC that's like saying you're going to just not be an artist because you didn't get into jewelry art or something like the acceptance rate is so low now you should be looking at other programs and other paths for you to get your vision.

大量成功的公司都没有参加 YC，这是显而易见的。因此，请坚定追寻你的创业愿景，不要被任何因素所阻碍。如果你没有被 YC录取，那就好比你因为没有被珠宝艺术学院录取，就要放弃做一名艺术家一样。现在 YC 的录取率很低，你应该考虑其他的计划和途径来实现你的愿景。

Sometimes we had an offer here at this week in startups that's so great from a partner that I don't even need to read the ad. I can just tell you the benefits. Here's the benefit.

有时候在创业周刊这里，我们会有一个非常好的伙伴优惠，让我甚至不需要阅读广告，就能告诉你优惠的好处。这里是好处。

Lenoad has a startup program called RISE RISC right? And it offers more than just free credits. Startups can get up to $10,000 per month in year one credits followed by 50% and 25% discounts in the next two years. So they're going to take care of you for three full years. There are no caps and you get lifetime discounts based on your usage. Plus you get that amazing award-winning 24-hour day seven-day week 365-day year customer support. You can do that by phone, email or social media. There's no tears, there's no handoffs. And you get cloud consulting from experts to ensure your tech stack scales seamlessly. And an amazing community where you can connect with program members, alumni, advisors, and more and shout out to our friends at Lenoad, which was recently acquired by Akamai. Yes, Lenoad recently announced 12 new global locations that are coming in 2023. With Akamai plus Lenoad, you get access to leading security and CDN solutions. If you're fed up with your hosting solution, you need to check out Lenoad. So here's an amazing call to action. Visit Lenoad.com.

Lenoad有一个名为RISE RISC的创业计划，对吗？它不仅提供免费信用额度，还能在第一年获得每月最高10,000美元的信用额度，接着在接下来的两年内享有50%和25%的折扣。所以，他们将照顾你整整三年。没有上限，你还能根据使用量获得终身折扣。此外，你还能获得那个令人惊叹的、获奖的全天候、全年无休的客户支持，在电话、电子邮件或社交媒体上都可以联系到。没有撕裂，没有转接。你还能从专家们那里获得云咨询，确保你的技术堆栈无缝扩展。此外，你还能与计划成员、校友、顾问等人士联系，并向我们在Lenoad最近被Akamai收购的朋友们致敬。是的，Lenoad最近宣布了12个新的全球位置，将在2023年到来。通过Akamai和Lenoad，你可以获得领先的安全和CDN解决方案。如果你对自己的托管解决方案感到厌倦，你需要去Lenoad看看。现在，提供一个令人惊叹的呼吁行动。快去访问Lenoad.com。

So I twist to get $500 in free credits. You can also apply to their startup program RISE. RISE members receive up to $120,000 in free infrastructure credits during their first year and up to 50% discounts thereafter.

所以我选择扭曲方式获取500美元的免费信用额度。您还可以申请他们的初创企业计划RISE。RISE会员在第一年可获得高达12万美元的免费基础设施信用额度，并在此后可获得高达50%的折扣。

If you do get into YC, go and enjoy it. And take my secret piece of advice. Go meet with all the top VCs and send them an email. I'm graduating from this is how you read.

如果你真的进入了 YC，请去享受吧。还有一个秘密建议，去会见所有顶级风投，并向他们发送邮件。我正在毕业，这就是你的发音方式。

I'll give you the exact exactly what you're right. Dear rule off, like I'd say it's a squad. Dear Chama, dear David Sachs, dear Friedberg, I'm not raising money until we graduate from YC. But I am a huge fan of your podcast blog post, Twitter, investments, whatever it is. And then say something very specific.

我会给你准确的东西，就像你说的那样。亲爱的Ruff，就像我会说这是一个小队一样。亲爱的Chama，亲爱的David Sachs，亲爱的Friedberg，我们在YC毕业之前不筹集资金。但是我非常喜欢你们的播客博客文章、推特、投资或其他任何东西。然后说些非常具体的话。

I know that you wrote the DL memo for YouTube. It was really inspired by that. I thought this section was particularly important. And I'm building something that's very similar to what YouTube did and what Zappos did. And I know Sequoia was investor in both those amazing companies. I'd love to show you what I'm working on. I'm available to come by Sequoia's office seven days a week from 6 a.m. to midnight. I will meet you anywhere anytime for 20 minutes. And that's all I need to show you my vision. Please let me know if you can spare 20 minutes anytime, any day.

我知道你为YouTube写了DL备忘录。那真的很震撼。我觉得这一节内容特别重要。我正在开发一个非常类似于YouTube和Zappos所做的事情。我知道Sequoia曾经是这两个惊人公司的投资者。我很想让你看看我在做什么。我一周七天都可以在早上6点到晚上12点到Sequoia的办公室见你。我可以在任何时间和任何地点与你见面20分钟。这就足够向你展示我的愿景了。如果你可以抽出20分钟的时间，请告诉我任何一天的任何时候可以见面。

You're right. It's just like I told you. You're going to get that meeting. And you say, I'm not raising money until demo day. And you go meet with them. And then they say, well, you know, if they really do like it and you got the nuts, they're going to say, oh, wow, stone-called nuts. I'm talking about a poker term here, folks. You got a boat. You hit your set on the river. You hit your set of aces on the flop and you board-parad on the river. And now you got a boat. You say to them, listen, I got the nuts. And they say, we'd love to put a 500K investment in if you were open to that. And you say, you know what? I would never consider it except for Sequoia because you're such a great firm. I'd never considered it except for craft because you're such a great firm. Boom. And then you just go, you move on and you take the money. And then you go into demo day with either your round filled or you raise another round. You raise a second round. You just decrease evaluation. You got Sequoia in on this early round for 15 million, 10 million. And then you raise that 20. All right.

你是对的，就像我告诉你的那样。你会得到那个会议的。你说，直到演示日我才会筹款。然后你去见他们。然后他们会说，如果他们真的喜欢它，而且你很聪明，他们会说，哇，这家伙聪明。我在这里说的是一种扑克术语。你得了一副牌。你在河流上得到了你的皇帝对。你得到了你的三张ace和铁板在河流上。现在你有了一副牌。你对他们说，听着，我很聪明。他们说，如果你愿意，我们很乐意投资500K。你说，你知道吗？除了Sequoia，因为你们是一个如此好的公司，我从来没有考虑过。除了craft，因为你们是一个这么好的公司，我从来没有考虑过。砰。然后你就走了，然后你拿到了钱。然后你进入演示日，要么你的回合已经填满，要么你再筹集一轮。你降低估值，把Sequoia纳入这个早期的回合中，以1500万美元的价格。然后你筹集了20万美元。

This is all I could tell you. I hope this is helpful to founders in no way as it's meant to be disparaging of Y-combinator. Hope for the people from YC who are listening to this and Gary, if you listen to this or if Harry Stabbings listen to this, I'm just trying to give everybody their flowers here and explain to the rest of the audience what actually happens in Silicon Valley. So we can all make great investments and work together.

这是我所能告诉你的全部内容。我希望这对创始人没有负面影响，因为它并不是要贬低Y-combinator。我希望那些来自YC并且正在听这个的人，还有Gary、Harry Stabbings等人，都能听到我的话，并理解我要向所有人阐述在硅谷真正发生的事情。这样我们就可以共同做出伟大的投资并携手工作。

One of the great things about Silicon Valley is the collaboration and that everybody's rooting for everybody. Now what I've seen over the last 10 years has gotten a little chippy. Has a lot of money's been made and some people made a ton of money. Other people didn't make money. It gets a little chippy if I'm being honest. Just like if you're playing in a poker game and a bunch of people lost some people won.

硅谷最好的一点就是大家都互相合作，并相互支持。但十年来我所看到的，有点不太对头。因为有很多钱赚，有些人赚了很多钱，而有些人没有赚到钱。说实话，有点棘手。这就像打扑克牌，有一些人输了，有一些人赢了，有点让人心烦。

But then hopefully over years of playing Polly together, it all evens out and everybody gets a chance to win and everybody takes their lumps. Everybody gets a couple of bad beads. But you ultimately we should all be supporting each other. And many hands makes for a light work. We should all be trying to get three, four, five great seed investors on a YC cap table on a launch company cap table on Harry Stabbings, you know cap table. And let's let's help these founders win together.

那么，希望在一起玩Polly几年后，一切就会平衡，每个人都有机会赢，每个人都要承担自己的责任。每个人都会遇到一些糟糕的情况，但最终我们应该互相支持。众人拾柴火焰高，我们应该努力让YC的投资表上、启动公司表上、Harry Stabbings表上拥有三、四、五个优秀的种子投资者。让我们一起帮助这些创业者取得成功。

Let's all work together. That's what I was originally enamored with at Silicon Valley. That even this kid from Brooklyn who was a little bit odd maybe a little bit abrasive on the margins, maybe too outspoken. I was embraced by some percentage of Silicon Valley. People found it funny or interesting or annoying, but they still accepted me. And they still became LPs in my fund. They still came on the podcast, Paul Graham came on this podcast. He spoke one of our events, Gary Chan has been on a number of times. So anyway, let's all work together. Congratulations to the folks who got into YC. If you didn't get into YC, send me your rejection letter and let's talk about it. YC at launch.co.

让我们一起合作吧。那是我最初喜欢硅谷的原因。即使是来自布鲁克林的这个孩子可能有点奇怪，也许有点让人反感，可能太直言不讳。硅谷的一部分人接纳了我。人们觉得很有趣或有趣或者烦人，但他们仍然接受了我。他们仍然成为我们基金的有限合伙人。保罗·格雷厄姆上过这个播客，他在我们的一个活动上发言，Gary Chan 多次出现在这个活动上。所以，让我们一起合作吧。恭喜那些进入 YC 的人。如果你没有进入 YC，请把你的拒绝信寄给我，我们来谈谈吧。YC at launch.co。

Yes, there's no difference between the 1.5% they accept and the next 15% probably the next 50% of them being honest. Nobody's that good of a picker. There's no difference between the 1% that get into Harvard and the the top 50% that apply. We all know that, right? I mean, it's we all can agree on that. Like the top 50% of people applying to Harvard, they're all excellent. They're all extraordinary. And they all deserve some investment and support.

是的，他们接受的1.5%和可能是下一个15%或50%的人诚实度没有区别。没有人能那么好地选拔。就像申请哈佛的1%和前50%没有区别。我们都知道这个道理，对吧？我的意思是，申请哈佛的前50%都很优秀，都非常特别。他们都值得得到一些投资和支持。

All right, I saw something completely inspiring that people found completely horrific on Twitter. And this is going to be polarizing a law firm called Paul Hastings, aka PH. I know them. They generated the 32nd most revenue of all US law firms in 2021 according to the Wikipedia. That's a new website you can check out. But it ranked 18 in revenue per lawyer.

好的，我在推特上看到了一些人们认为非常可怕的东西，但这也激励了我。这件事情将会引起争议，涉及保罗·黑斯廷斯律师事务所，也被简称为PH。我认识这个律师事务所。根据维基百科，他们在2021年美国所有律师事务所中创造的收入排名第32位。你可以去新的网站查看。不过，PH在每位律师收入方面排名18位。

So it's fighting above its weight class, probably due to the absurdly high expectations. So they have a document called non-negotiable expectation. Number one, PH, Paul Hastings, is an AM law 20 law firm. You're in the big leagues, which is a privilege, act like it. Okay, so there's telling you right now, you're lucky to be here. I like this. Number two, we are in the business of client service. You are the concierge at the four seasons, a waiter at a Linnea. Shout out to our friend, the co-founder of a Linnea, Nick Caconis, my guy. The client always comes first and is always right. If a client wants a mountain move, we move it. No questions. As a junior, your clients are the associates and partners on the deal team.

所以它正在超越自身分量级战斗，可能是因为期望过高。所以，他们有一个叫做“不可谈判的期望”的文件。第一条，PH, Paul Hastings是一个AM法律20律师事务所。你在大联盟里，这是一个特权，行事要像一个大联盟的人。现在告诉你，你很幸运能在这里。我喜欢这个。第二条，我们的业务是客户服务。你就像四季酒店的礼宾员，Linnea的服务员。向我们的朋友、Linnea的联合创始人Nick Caconis致敬。客户永远是第一位的，而且永远是正确的。如果客户要求搬山，我们就搬山。作为初级员工，你的客户是交易团队的助理和合伙人。

All right, here we go. This is setting an expression. You're a waiter. You're a concierge and you're lucky to be here. Amazing. What great framing. Whoever wrote this, um, chat GPT could never write this. Well, though I'm going to train chat. My chat GPT-4 is going to be trained with this. This is the source document. Number three, you are online 24-7 in bold and underlined. No exceptions, no excuses. I agree with this. I'm going to, I'm sending this to my investment team and telling them you're on 24-7. No, no exceptions, no excuses. Timelines, quality. Clients expect everything to be done perfectly and delivered yesterday.

好的，我们开始了。这是设定表情。你是服务员。你是门房，而且你很幸运能在这里。太棒了。多么完美的框架啊。不管是谁写的，聊天 GPT 写不出来这样的东西。不过我会教它的。我的聊天 GPT-4 将会被这个资料训练。第三条，你要24/7 在线，用粗体和下划线醒目标出来。没有例外，没有借口。我同意这个观点。我要把它发给我的投资团队，并告诉他们你们必须24/7 在线，没有例外，没有借口。时间表和质量。客户期望所有事情都被完美的完成，并在昨天交付。

Okay, just, we're level setting here. Clients have unrealistic expectations. I like it. Someone is paying 850 for one hour of your time. Think about that in everything you do. All communication and work product needs to be prompt, professional and polished. Number six, take ownership of everything you do. Once you touch a document work stream, you own every mistake in it fair or not, right? Ownership, ownership, quality of work. This one, number seven, I love. WFH is a luxury. Work from home is a luxury. This is, this one hit me deeply. I'm right. I'm scaring my teams. Don't take advantage of it. Buy a full home setup, two monitors, docking station, keyboard and mouse, and a working phone or come to the office.

嗯，我们需要明确一下。客户的期望有些不切实际。我很喜欢这样。有人愿意支付850美元让你为他效力一个小时。在你做任何事情时，要考虑到这一点。所有的沟通和工作成果都需要及时、专业且精益求精。第六点，要对自己所做的一切负责。一旦你接触了某个文件或流程，你就要对其中的每一个错误负责，无论公正与否，对吧？负责、质量是关键。第七点，我很喜欢。在家办公是一种奢侈。这一点深深地触动了我。我正在吓唬我的团队。不要利用这个条件。购买一个完整的家庭设备，包括两个显示器、底座、键盘和鼠标，以及一部正常工作的手机，或者到办公室来工作。

So they're saying your responsibility to buy this stuff, not ours. Your setup is your responsibility. We have an office come to the office. If you want to work from home, do it. No poor connections, no excuses. See number three, number five. This is what I tell my people.

所以他们是说这些东西的购买责任是你的，而不是我们的责任。你的设备是你的责任。我们有一个办公室，你可以来办公室。如果你想在家工作，那就去吧。不要有差劲的连接，也不要有任何借口。看看第三点和第五点。这就是我告诉我的员工的话。

Have an ethernet cable, have a setup. I pay for their stuff. Maybe I'll have to change that. I'll still pay for it because we don't have an office. If I did have an office, I would maybe think about this saying, hey, you're responsible for your home setup. We're responsible for your work setup. But you have to, I tell my people, have an ethernet cable and I've thrown people off a conference call. I kid you not. If they don't show it with a headset and they don't show up with an ethernet and a high-speed perfect connection, people like, I have Wi-Fi and just doesn't work. Run an ethernet cable people.

有一条以太网线，就有了安装。我为他们的东西付款。也许我得改变这种情况。我仍然会支付，因为我们没有办公室。如果我有一个办公室，我会考虑这个问题，告诉他们，你们负责家庭设置。我们负责工作设置。但我告诉我的员工们：你们必须有一条以太网线，我曾经因此踢出了一些人的视频会议。我不是开玩笑。如果他们没有耳机，没有以太网和高速完美的连接，那么我们就要请他们走人。有人可能会说：我有Wi-Fi，但它并不能工作。请大家拿一条以太网线。

Okay, I love this. Number eight, no questions until you've tried to figure something out for yourself. Of course, this is obvious. Google unfamiliar concepts. Yadda, yadda, yadda. Still can't figure out the answer. Talk to your classmates. They're not the same. Don't come to us. Go talk to your classmates. Be self-reliant. This is great life advice. Be self-reliant. Be an adult. Put out quality work. Be of service. This is a manifesto. Chef's kiss.

好的，我喜欢这个。第八点，除非你自己尝试去解决问题，否则不要问任何问题。当然，这很明显。要用谷歌搜索不熟悉的概念，等等等等。如果还是找不到答案，请与你的同学交流。他们并不相同。不要来找我们。去找你的同学。要有自力更生的精神。这是很好的人生建议。要自力更生。要成为一个成熟的人。做出优质的工作。要成为服务他人的人。这是一个宣言。太棒了。

Number nine. I can't even tell you how much of these I love. Number nine, I don't know. It's never an acceptable answer. See number six and number eight. Go figure it out.

第九个。我无法告诉你我有多喜欢它们。第九个，我不知道。这不是一个可以接受的答案。看看第六个和第八个，自己琢磨吧。

Ten. This is your career. Why oh you are it's in caps. Embrace that reality and always put your best foot forward. If not for the firm or your deal team for yourself at the end of the day and this is in bold and underline and this is critically important. It's your reputation that will carry you. Whether that's here or in house or elsewhere. Make it count. Bravo. I say Bravo to Paul Hastings.

十，这是你的职业。为什么oh你用了大写字母。接受这个现实，始终振作精神。即使不为公司或你的团队，也要为了自己，这非常重要，这是加粗并下划线的，非常重要。你的信誉将伴随你前行，无论是在这里，还是在内部或别处。要做好它。太棒了。我对保罗·黑斯廷斯公司说声赞。

And if this is something you find appalling or too intense. Well, you go work at the post office. Okay. There's a Starbucks job waiting for you. This is a manifesto for you to become elite. This is the Michael Jordan of legal documents. This is the Kobe Bryant.

如果你觉得这太过分或者过于激烈，那你去邮局工作吧。好的，那里有一份星巴克的工作等着你。这是让你成为精英的宣言。这是法律文件中的迈克尔·乔丹。这是科比·布莱恩特。

There's a clip of Kobe Bryant. I'll have my team put it at the end of this rant where he talks about working out twice a day versus his strategy of working out four times a day. Instead of starting at 11 a.m. he starts at 4 a.m. And he just talked about how no matter how much work his competitors did in the NBA over the summers because he consistently got up at 4 a.m. and did that 5 a.m. workout had breakfast at 8 a.m. then went back to the gym at 10 and he did the four workouts and his contemporaries did too.

这里有一段科比布莱恩特的片段，我会让我的团队把它放在这篇抱怨的结尾部分。在片段中，他谈到了每天两次锻炼与每天四次锻炼的策略。他不是在早上11点开始，而是在早上4点开始。他刚刚谈到了在NBA的竞争中，无论他的竞争对手夏天做了多少工作，因为他每天早上4点坚持锻炼，然后在早上8点吃早餐，接着在早上10点回到健身房，他自己和他的同龄人都完成了这四次锻炼。

They could never catch up to him. His fitness, his availability, his technique, his brain, his stamina, everything was just at another level. And he just said over time the gap between him and who was behind him got greater. That gap now is not other players. It's chat GPT for it is AI. AI is right behind you.

他们永远追不上他。他的健康状况、可用性、技术、智力、耐力，一切都达到了另一个层次。他说随着时间的推移，他和后面的人之间的差距越来越大。现在这个差距不是其他球员了，而是聊天GPT，因为它是AI，它就在你的身后。

If you hear my voice now and this document scares you, it should scare you much less than the AI that's behind you as a knowledge worker. The AI behind you is going to roll over you unless you become elite. The world doesn't need average people. AI is going to do average and above average work. You must become elite and you must do it now. That is what is happening in the world as we speak.

如果你现在听到我的声音，而这份文件让你感到害怕，那么你应该比身后作为知识工作者的人工智能更加害怕。如果你不变为精英，那么正在追赶你的人工智能将超越你。世界并不需要普通人。人工智能会完成普通和高于普通水平的工作。你必须变得精英，现在就要开始行动。这就是我们正在谈论的世界正在发生的事情。

If your job is to try to be the best basketball player you can be to do that, you have to practice, you have to train. You want to train as much as you can as often as you can. So if you get up at 10 in the morning, train at 12. Train for two hours, 12 to 2. You have to let your body recover. Get back out. You train, start training again at 6. Train from the 68. And now you go home, you shower, you be dinner, you go to bed, you wake up, do it again. Those are two sessions. Now imagine you wake up at 3. Train at 4.46. Come home, breakfast, relax. Now your back out of again. 9 to 11. Relax. Now I'll start your back out of again. 2 to 4.

如果你的工作是尽可能成为最好的篮球运动员，那么你必须练习，必须训练。你希望尽可能多地练习，尽可能频繁地训练。所以如果你早上10点起床，12点开始训练。训练两个小时，从12点到2点。你必须让你的身体恢复。再次出去训练。你在6点开始训练，从68开始。现在你回家，洗个澡，吃晚饭，去睡觉，你醒来，再做一遍。这些是两个训练课程。现在想象一下，你早上3点醒来。4点46分开始训练。回家，吃早餐，放松一下。现在你又出去了。9点到11点。放松一下。现在我再开始你的训练。2点到4点。

Your back out of again. 7 to 9. Look how much more training I have done by simply starting at 4. So now you do that as the years go on. The separation you have with your competitors and your peers just grows larger and larger and larger and larger.

你再次退出了。7到9点。看看我只是从4点开始就完成了多么多的训练。随着年龄的增长，你也应该这样做。你与竞争对手和同龄人之间的差距只会越来越大。

Larger. By year 5 or 6, doesn't matter what kind of work they're doing in summer, they're never going to catch up. So it makes sense to get up and start your day early because you can get more work.

到了五年级或六年级，无论他们在暑假做什么样的工作，都再也追不上了。因此，起得早开始一天的工作是有意义的，因为你可以完成更多的工作。

You know all the complaints about building apps on the blockchain. It's slow, it's less reliable, there's no support if things go wrong. Listen, it's an emerging technology. We all know that.

你知道构建区块链应用程序的所有抱怨。它速度慢、可靠性低，如果出了问题就没有支援。听着，这是一种新兴技术。我们都知道这一点。

Well, here's the good news. Quick node has solved all of this. Quick node gives blockchain developers unparalleled reliability and speed with access to unlimited endpoints across 18 chains and 35 networks. Quick node provides amazing response time and dedicated 24 seven customer support. They offer so much consistent performance at any scale. Lightning fast API responses that are 2.5 times faster on average than competitors. And the most sophisticated and globally balanced cloud and bare metal Web 3 architecture. Listen, this is like the AWS or Azure of Web 3. This is where you need to go.

好消息来了！Quick node已经解决了这些问题。使用Quick node，区块链开发者可以获得前所未有的可靠性和速度，可以访问18条链和35个网络的无限节点。Quick node提供惊人的响应时间和专属的24/7客户支持。无论规模如何，他们都提供了如此一致的性能表现。API响应速度非常快，平均比竞争对手快2.5倍。此外，他们的Web 3架构是最复杂和全球平衡的云环境和裸机环境。听着，这就像Web 3的AWS或Azure一样。这就是你需要去的地方。

If you're building DAPs decentralized apps, you need to use Quick node. So here's your call to action. Find out why companies like Twitter, Adobe Coinbase, and OpenC use Quick node and get one month free by using the code twist at go.quick node.com slash twist. Once again, that URL right it down now is go dot q i c k n o d e dot com slash T w i c t and make sure you use that promo code twist so they know we sent you.

如果你正在构建去中心化应用（DAPs Decentralized Apps），你需要使用Quick Node。因此，这里呼唤您行动起来。了解为什么像Twitter、Adobe、Coinbase和OpenC等公司使用Quick Node，并通过在go.quicknode.com/twist使用代码“twist”免费获得一个月。再次提醒您，该网址为go.quicknode.com/twist，请确保使用促销代码twist，以便他们知道我们是谁发送的。

And some attorney who tweeted this SMB underscore attorney, I guess small medium size business attorney. Yeah, this commentary. This big law firm finally said the quiet part out loud. Nothing matters, but the firm and generating billables. That's not what I took from it.

有些律师在推特上发了这个SMB下划线律师的评论，我猜是小中型企业律师。这个评论说出了这个大型律所的真实想法，即唯一重要的是律所和产生收益。但我并不这样理解。

No, they literally say this is how disingenuous this person is. They literally say your career that matters, your reputation. They said the opposite. And they never brought in generating billables because that takes care of some. And then he says, your family, your health, you know, nothing here said you don't see your family. Nothing here doesn't say your health. And this is about you. Does it matter? Just bill 24 seven no excuses. No excuses. Yes, 27 24 seven for your customers. Yes, but you're also doing that for your family. You're also doing that for your family. If you're the breadwinner and you want your kids and family to have a better life, sure, you got to take them on vacation. You got to have time with your family.

不，他们真的是这样说的，这个人非常不真诚。他们认为你的职业生涯很重要，你的声誉也很重要。他们说得完全相反。他们从未提到如何创造效益，因为这在一定程度上是自然而然的。然后他说，你的家庭、你的健康，你知道的，在这里没有说你不能和家人在一起。在这里没有说你不能照顾你的健康。这是关于你的。很重要吗？做24小时不停歇的工作，没有任何借口。没有任何借口。是的，你要为你的客户24小时不停歇地工作。但你也在为你的家庭这样做。如果你是家里的经济支柱，想要孩子和家人过上更好的生活，当然，你需要带他们去度假，你需要和家人在一起。

But objectively, this is the road back to extreme success and SMB acquisition attorney had to reply. Never a good idea because I'm going to come back and do it. And he says, and probably divorce alien in relation to kids in poor physical mental health. But yes, you're going to get the steady competition. That's not true. That's not true. You could work 10 hours a day and still have time for your family. You could work a couple hours on the weekend when your family is sleeping or they're working on a task or they're going to their tutor or whatever they're doing. Kids are at soccer, whatever, you know, practice. You don't have to be at everything. And you could be in great mental and physical health like Kobe Bryant, like everybody else.

客观来说，这是通往极致成功和中小企业收购律师必须回复的道路。这不是个好主意，因为我会回来并且会做到。他说，可能会离婚，并且可能会伤害孩子的身心健康。但是，你会得到稳定的竞争。这不是真的。你可以每天工作10个小时，仍然有时间陪家人。周末你可以工作几个小时，当你的家人在睡觉或者在做任务或者去上家教时，你可以做她们的事情。孩子们在踢足球，也可以不参加。你可以像科比·布莱恩特和其他人一样保持良好的身心健康。

And do you have to make sacrifices to be elite? Of course you do. Olympians, NBA players like Kobe, elites, CEOs, did they sacrifice a little bit on the market? Yes. Can they have some wonderful relationships? Yes. Those things are completely independent of each other. And in fact, if you bring the same rigor and intentionality in this document and you replace it with your family and your kids, you'll get there. You see me working here. I'm doing a podcast on a Friday. But then I'm going to get those 90 minutes, three hours on the mountain with my kids. And then I'll work at night. They'll go to bed and I'll put it another three hours. And I'll skip game of thrums or whatever nonsense that I could have watched. And I'll just get my work done at night. But I'll get them in their 90 minutes, three hours on the mountain. That's what they like to do. They like to do five to 10 runs. I'll get that in.

你必须付出些许牺牲，才能成为精英，是吗？当然是的。奥运会选手、像科比这样的NBA球员、精英人士、CEO们，市场上会有些许牺牲吗？是的。他们可以拥有美好的人际关系吗？可以的。这些事情彼此是完全独立的。事实上，如果你将在这份文件中付出的严谨和专注程度应用在你的家庭和孩子身上，你也可以达到目标。你看，我现在就在星期五录制播客，但晚上我会和孩子们共度90分钟或三个小时的山上时光，然后晚上才会工作。他们会睡觉，我会继续工作三个小时。我会跳过《权力的游戏》或其他不必要的娱乐，只专注于我的工作。但我会抽出时间陪伴孩子们度过他们钟爱的90分钟或三个小时山上时光，他们喜欢在那里滑行五至十次，我会陪他们一起滑行。

Anyway, Billy McFarland, Fire Fest, Felon of Note, says, crazy, that Twitter thinks this is crazy for a 20 year old kid trying to build his horror foundation. We've gone soft. I have to say the hard and criminal mastermind, Billy McFarland, it gets it right here. When you're in your 20s, you can skip Coachella. You know, if you've got a client and that's going to advance your career to a three years, you can skip Coachella. It'll be there later. You don't have to do everything. You should be hustling when you're young and getting you know, advancing in your career.

不管怎样，备受关注的罪犯比利·麦克法兰德（Billy McFarland）表示，推特认为一个20岁的孩子试图建立自己的恐怖基础是疯狂的，我们已经变得软弱了。我必须说这位硬汉和罪犯的策划者比利·麦克法兰德理解得很对。当你二十多岁时，你可以跳过科切拉音乐节。如果你有一个客户可以让你三年内职业发展得更好，你可以跳过科切拉音乐节。它以后还会有的。你不必做到每件事。当你年轻时，你应该拼搏，不断发展职业。

Anyway, important note. This document is for junior employees who are fresh out of law school. They're probably in their 25, 26, 27, 28 years old range. And they were probably raised on participation trophies. And that's why this is exceptional advice to shake them up and to let them know you're in the big leagues here. Act like it and build your reputation and service the heck out of these customers of ours. This is great advice.

总之，有个重要说明。这份文件是给刚从法学院毕业的初级员工用的。他们可能在25、26、27、28岁的年龄范围内。而且他们可能是在参与奖杯的环境下长大的。因此，这是一份非常好的建议，可以让他们摆脱舒适区并让他们知道在这里你是处于大联盟。要像大联盟一样行事，建立你的声誉，为我们的客户提供最好的服务。这是非常好的建议。

If you want to be a winner, print this Paul Hastings stuff out, edit it, put it into your AI, drop it into your Coda or Notion, and then make your own manifesto of 10 important things for your company. I'm going to take this and make it a template for my investment team because I told my investment team, this is we're an investment company.

如果你想成为赢家，就把这份Paul Hastings的资料印出来，编辑一下，放进你的AI里，再放进Coda或Notion里，然后为你的公司制定自己的10个重要宣言。我会把这个模板用到我的投资团队身上，因为我告诉过我的投资团队，我们是一家投资公司。

If a founder needs our help, I want you on the phone Saturday and Sunday nights with them, whatever it takes. And you know what? Not everybody's up for that. And those people should not work for me. So if you want to come work for me, this Paul Hastings slide.

如果创始人需要我们的帮助，我希望你能在周六和周日晚上陪伴他们，不惜一切代价。你知道吗？并不是每个人都愿意这样做。那些人就不应该为我工作。所以如果你想来为我工作，就要遵循这个保罗·黑斯廷斯的想法。

You might want to read it once or twice because it is actually in line with how I think about our firm launch and our dedication to our customers. We are the concierge. We are the waiter for our founders. You can take this non-negotiable expectations list.

你可能需要读一两遍，因为它与我对我们公司的推出和对我们客户的奉献的看法是一致的。我们是门房，我们是创始人的服务员。你可以接受这个非谈判的期望清单。

This is for my investment team. If you're listening, sometimes you listen to the bud. Launch is a top 20 investment firm. We are we're a top five seed fund. No doubt. We are in the business of client service. You are the concierge. The first reason that's correct.

这是给我的投资团队的。如果你在听，有时候你会倾听到小声的声音。Launch是一家前20的投资公司。我们是前五的种子基金。毫无疑问。我们的业务是客户服务。你们是门房。这是正确的第一个原因。

The client is always first and always right. That's true with the founders. The founder comes first and is always right. If the founder wants a mountain moved, we move it. No questions. As a junior, your clients, your founders are the managing directors and on the deal teams.

客户始终是第一位且永远正确的，这同样适用于创始人。创始人始终是第一位且永远正确的。如果创始人想移动一座山，我们就会移动它，不会有任何问题。作为一个初级员工，你的客户以及创始人是管理董事会和交易团队的人。

Some founder is giving us not $850 an hour. They're giving us 6% of their company come to our accelerator. They're taking $100,000 of our money to be on their cap table. Okay, let's take it seriously. Everything's got to be perfect.

有些创始人不会给我们每小时850美元，而是会为了加入我们的加速器，让我们获得他们公司的6％。他们会拿走我们10万美元以便成为他们的资本表上的一员。好的，我们要认真对待，每件事情都要做到完美。

All right, everybody. That's it. Just a quick follow up here to the substack story from a couple of weeks ago. As I had mentioned, when you do equity crowdfunding, you have to disclose how your company's doing, the revenue of the financials.

大家好。就上几周的Substack新闻做个简要跟进。如我所提到的，当你进行股权众筹时，你必须披露公司的业务情况，财务收入等信息。

I was like, weird, where are the financials on this? It turns out you can test the waters. They did this on a website called WeFundr. The founder of WeFundr actually reached out to me to correct some things in our episode or just clarify some things for me. I'm also going to say hi. Hi to the WeFundr CEO.

我当时就想，嗯，这上面的财务数据哪去了？后来发现原来可以试水一下。他们在一个叫WeFundr的网站上做到了这一点。WeFundr的创始人实际上联系了我，纠正了一些我们节目中的错误，或者是对我解释了一些东西。我也要向WeFundr的CEO表示你好。嗨，WeFundr的CEO。

Here's what it says. Per WeFundr's website, if you're offering is in the first 120 days of the fiscal year, financials may be for the two fiscal years prior to the most recent complete year. Yada, yada, yada.

这是它的意思。根据 WeFundr 网站的要求，如果你在财政年度的前120天提供招股，财务报表可能涵盖最近完整一年之前的两个财政年度。等等，等等。

This being substack, which required to disclose financials only from 2020 and 2021, which it did yesterday. They did $12 million. This is from Axios, which summarized it nicely for us, not chat GPT4.

这是在Substack上，他们只须从2020年和2021年披露财务状况，而昨天他们这么做了。他们收入达到了1200万美元。这个消息来自Axios，他们为我们作了清晰简洁的总结，不是由聊天GPT4传递的。

12 million if gross revenue in 2021 on a 22 million net loss with $55 million in cash on hand. So 12 million of gross revenue, they get 10% of that. So that means they had 1.2 million in revenue, and they lost 22 million.

2021年总收入为1200万美元，但净亏损达到了2200万美元，现金流有5500万美元。其中1200万美元的总收入中，他们能获得10%的利润，也就是说他们实际收入了120万美元，但亏损达到了2200万美元。

And the CEO of Substack Chris Best says we're a private company, we're releasing what we're required to release. So but they'll have to require the rest of them. And we'll see how the company does going forward.

Substack的CEO Chris Best表示，我们是一家私人公司，我们只发布必须发布的信息。所以其他信息必须经过要求。接下来我们会看公司的表现如何。

But as I said in our previous episode, it's a challenged business. Substack is a challenging business, just like Patreon. These businesses are loved by the people who use them. But one of the reasons people use them love them is because of their low take rate.

就像我之前在节目中说的那样，这是一项具有挑战性的业务。 Substack和Patreon一样具有挑战性的业务。这些业务是广受使用者喜欢的。但人们之所以喜欢使用它们，其中一个原因是它们的低抽成率。

The percentage that Patreon takes, I think, is 10% and then plus fees, like credit card fees goes on top of that. Same thing with Substack. The app sort of takes 30% for a reason. They want it to be a vibrant business that, you know, makes a lot of money, has a profit.

我认为 Patreon 收取的费用是 10%，加上其他费用，比如信用卡费用。Substack 也是一样，这个应用程序收取了 30% 的费用，目的是让它成为一个充满活力的公司，可以赚很多钱，并盈利。

I don't think Substack can be profitable on the 10% number. If they're losing 20 million a year, like they did in 2021, 22 million dollar loss, that means 10% if you were to 10x that number to get their 10% take rate, they'd have to make 250 million dollars or something like that to get to this magical break even point.

我不认为Substack在10%的数字上能盈利。如果像2021年那样每年亏损2000万美元，那意味着10%的提成率是需要让他们赚取2.5亿美元左右才能达到这个神奇的盈亏平衡点。

I don't think they're going to build 250 million in Substacks. They said they had two million paid subs. I believe was the last number I heard. So at $5 a month, 10 million a month, I don't know. It's, or maybe they have the million or two million.

我不认为他们会在Substack上建立2.5亿个。他们说他们有两百万付费订户，我相信这是我最后听到的数字。所以以每月$5计算，他们每月能赚1000万，但我不确定他们现在有多少订户，可能只有一百万或两百万。

Maybe they're getting close. Maybe they're halfway there. Maybe they're at 120 million in top line revenue. So they have 12 million in bottom line. Anyway, it's possible this business gets to break even in the coming years on the cash they have. Actually, I do think that's possible.

也许他们正在接近目标，也许他们已经完成了一半，或者他们的收入已经达到了1.2亿美元，因此他们的净收入为1200万元。无论如何，他们有可能在未来几年内用他们手头的现金达到收支平衡。实际上，我认为这是有可能的。

Will it ever be a company that throws off massive amounts of money? It will not. Now, if they took 30% nobody would use the product. You would be way too much for somebody making a million dollars a year in subscriptions, two million a day in subscriptions, three million a year in subscriptions, to give 300, 600 or 900,000 dollars.

它会成为一个能够创造巨额财富的公司吗？不会的。如果他们收取30％的费用，那么没有人会使用这个产品。对于那些每年赚100万美金，每天赚200万美金或每年赚300万美元的订阅用户而言，支付30万，60万或90万美元是太多了。

It made no sense. You could hire developers. You could buy software and you could save all that money. And so that is going to be the challenge of this business, which is why I think they're trying to do other things, podcasts and tweets and other offerings. So they want to build all these subscriptions and then they're going to keep turning over cards.

这没有意义。你可以雇佣开发者，也可以购买软件并节省大量资金。这就是这个企业要面临的挑战，所以我认为他们想做其他事情，比如播客、推特和其他服务。所以他们想要建立所有这些订阅，然后他们会不停地抽出新的牌。

Would I want to have been a seed investor or series A investor in this company? Very much so. I think it would have been a great investment. Would I invest in this round? No, absolutely not. I think this round is way overpriced by a factor. No, I wish them the best. But if my, if people in my syndicate or angel investors are asking me, I would invest at 25% of valuation.

我会想成为这家公司的种子投资者或A轮投资者吗？非常想。我认为这将是一笔伟大的投资。我会在这一轮投资吗？不，绝对不会。我认为这一轮的估值过高了。不过，我希望他们能最好。但如果我的合伙人或天使投资者询问我，我会在估值的25%处投资。

I value the business at 150 million, maybe 200 million, something in that range would not base it at 600 million. That's like peak valuation price. And the reason they're probably doing equity crowdfunding if you want to take a cynical view is because they can't clear market at that valuation with venture capital firms anymore. So they want to raise from their user base and then put that to work to fill in that valuation.

我认为这个企业的价值在1.5亿到2亿之间，但肯定不会达到6亿的估值水平。那相当于峰值估值价格。而且如果你要持怀疑的态度去看，他们可能之所以选择股权众筹，是因为他们已经不能用风险投资公司来达到这个估值了。所以他们想通过提高用户基础来筹集资金，然后利用这些资金填补估值的差距。

Infilling that valuation means I think getting to 500 million in subscriptions of which they would get 10% 50 million and 50 million times 12 would be 600 million. I think that would make sense. Anyway, I wish them the best. Substack is an awesome product. I have the Jason Callacanis newsletter there. I have an all-in newsletter. I started there. I have found a university there. I have the twist mailing list there. Why did I move them all there? Because I'm getting free subs because of the network effect. And I'm not charging.

我认为充实估值意味着他们能够达到5亿的订阅量，并从中获得10％的50亿，50亿乘以12为6亿。我认为这是有意义的。不管怎样，我祝愿他们一切顺利。Substack是一个很棒的产品。我在那里有Jason Callacanis的新闻通讯，我还有一个全自动新闻通讯，我是从那里开始的。我在那里找到了一个大学，我还有扭曲的邮件列表。为什么我把他们都移到那里？因为我因网络效应而获得了免费的订阅，而我没有收费。

So it's like getting a free email provider. So shout out to Substack for giving me a free, essentially free service. And they give me every day. I get a handful of people recommending my mailing list. So it's growing because the network effect. So I think Substack has executed at a high level. I would not invest at this round. I wish them the best.

这就像是得到了一个免费的电子邮件提供商一样。所以我要感谢Substack给我提供了一个免费的、实质上免费的服务。他们每天都给我提供服务。我收到了一些人推荐我的邮件列表。因为网络效应的原因，它正在不断增长。所以我认为Substack已经在高水平上执行了。我不会在这一轮投资，但我祝愿他们一切顺利。

And here's a question for you. And I want you to answer me on Twitter. I'm at Jason. I want you to give me your most considered response. Who is the most likely acquirer for Substack? And then too, who would be the most unlikely but interesting acquirer of Substack? Who's the most likely, which would be somebody who's in that business? Right? Think that through. Somebody who has subscription. Somebody who likes writers and journalism. Who could be a really great person to own this business? And then who would be a wildcard buyer? Somebody you'd like to see by it.

这儿有个问题，请你回答我，你可以在Twitter上回答我。我的Twitter账号是Jason。我希望你给我一个认真考虑后的答复。谁最有可能收购Substack？还有，最不可能但值得关注的收购者是谁？最有可能的人，应该是那些在这个行业中的人，对吧？好好想想，有哪些人有订阅服务，喜欢作家和新闻。谁会成为一个真正伟大的拥有者？然后，最荒唐的买家是谁？有谁是你想要看到他们购买Substack的人？

I have mine already. I will reveal mine on Monday or Tuesday. You tell me over the weekend. Which ones? Who's the likely buyer? Who's your wildcard buyer? If you got rejected from YC, my YC rejects. Send me your rejection letter YC at lunch. I'll go. Bye bye.

我已经拥有了我的东西。我会在周一或周二公开我的东西。你在周末告诉我。是哪些东西？谁是可能的买家？谁是你的野卡买家？如果你从YC被拒绝了，我的YC也被拒绝了。请在午餐时将你的拒绝信YC发送给我。我去了。再见。