Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. Earlier this year, CATL unveiled their Shenxing Plus battery, which they claimed can provide 620 miles of total range, add 370 miles of range in 10 minutes during charging, can fast charge at negative 20 Celsius and has a pack level energy density of 205Wh per kilogram. So today, we're going to take a closer look at the key specs and more importantly, decipher how CATL achieved those specs through technology improvements to the cathode, anode, electrolyte and separator. With that information in hand, we can get a better understanding of the potential drawbacks of Shenxing and whether other companies like Tesla could duplicate it. Let's get into it.
Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, YouTube members and Twitter subscribers, as well as RebellionAir.com. They specialize in helping investors manage concentrated positions. RebellionAir can help with covered calls, risk management and creating a money master plan from your financial first principles. First things first, let's look at the headline specs for CATL Shenxing. CATL states that the battery is capable of 1000 km of range, which is 620 miles. When converting from China's optimistic EV test cycle to the US EPA test cycle, that would be more like 740 km or 460 miles in ideal conditions. In real world conditions, it would mean more like 600 km or 375 miles of range. That's still excellent range, especially for an LFP battery pack, but it's worth pointing out for people who assume that CATL's range claims were real world figures. It's also worth noting that CATL didn't say what type of vehicle that range estimate was based on. That means we don't have a baseline for efficiency, which matters just as much as the battery technology when determining range. For example, if their efficiency assumptions were optimistic and based on a small sedan, then for most vehicles, the real world range estimate would drop even further.
That, in turn, could also have an impact on their charging claims. On that note, CATL claimed that Shenxing could add 600 km or 370 miles of range in 10 minutes. That's equivalent to about 445 km or 275 miles on an EPA test cycle and 360 km or 230 miles of range in real world conditions. If CATL's hypothetical vehicle was a small, efficient vehicle, we'd be looking at less than 230 miles for a large sedan, truck, or SUV. To be clear, I'm not trying to minimize what CATL's achieved with Shenxing. Based on what they've told us about it, I'm impressed and it's going to push the whole battery industry forward. However, it's important to strip away some of the marketing hype to get a more realistic view of how Shenxing will actually perform.
While we're on the topic of charging speed, it's important to note that in order to hit Shenxing's 4C charge rate, you'd also need a supercharger capable of supporting that 4C charge rate. A 4C charge rate means that the average EV battery, which has around 80 kWh of capacity, would require a charger that can supply 4X that in terms of kW of power. In this case, that would mean a 320 kW charger. Most Tesla chargers are only about 150 to 250 kW. Yes, there are chargers with higher outputs in the US and especially China, but the bulk of the supercharging infrastructure is still 250 kW or less. That means for the average vehicle, the fast charge technology in Shenxing is now far ahead of the actual infrastructure to charge those batteries. And it's going to be three or four more years before that equipment becomes common. Yes, at current underpowered superchargers, Shenxing batteries will likely still see faster charge rates because they'll be able to sustain peak charging for longer. And yes, smaller vehicles with battery packs below 60 kW hours will be able to take full advantage of the 4C charge rate thanks to their smaller packs. But vehicles with packs that are 80 kWh and above, like a vehicle with 1000km of advertised range, will, on most charging equipment, see charging speeds that are 30 to 50% slower than what CATL is touting for Shenxing.
The next headline spec was that CATL Shenxing is fast charge capable at negative 20 Celsius. By fast charge capable, they mean it'll be able to accept 50% of the maximum charge rate at those temperatures. That means with the average 80kWh battery pack at negative 20 Celsius, Shenxing can maintain 160kW charge rate with no preheating. However, most vehicles preheat at home or on their way to the supercharger and are able to maintain fast charge rates in low temperatures. With that said, better low temperature performance will be very useful for daily driving in colder climates like Canada. So like with the regular fast charging, cold weather fast charging is useful, but it'll apply in a minority of use cases.
Lastly, CATL claimed that Shenxing will reach an energy density of 205Wh per kilogram at the pack level. My gut reaction to that is 205Wh per kilogram is aspirational. The real world energy density of battery packs from Chinese manufacturers can often come in significantly below what was in the promotional material. But if they can get anywhere around 180Wh per kilogram or above for an LFP battery pack, I'd be impressed. That's because 180Wh per kilogram at the pack level would match the performance of some of the best high nickel battery packs on the market, which can easily cost 20% more than an LFP battery pack.
With the headline specs out of the way, let's take a look at the technologies that make Shenxing work. I'm mostly going to be focused on fast charge because that's the key feature that was advertised by CATL and that people seem to be most excited about. Starting with the cathode, CATL claims that, quote, Shenxing leverages a super-electronic network cathode technology and fully nanocrystallized LFP cathode material to create a super-electronic network, which facilitates the extraction of lithium ions and the rapid response to charge signals, end quote. That's a lot of techno-babble. Let's decipher it.
Every battery cathode contains carbon-black powder, which helps improve the conductivity of the cathode. However, many manufacturers are moving to multi or single walled carbon nanotubes because they offer better electronic conductivity. My guess is that's part of what CATL is referring to when they say a super-electronic cathode network. Carbon nanotubes should allow for slightly lower resistance at the cell level at much lower concentrations in the cathode. That, in turn, should mean slightly less heat generation during charge and discharge, and maybe one or two percent more energy density thanks to a higher ratio of active-to-inactive material in the cathode.
With regards to CATL's comment about fully crystallized LFP cathode material, as far as I can tell, it's not anything new. All cathode material is fully crystallized, and LFP cathode particles can be produced at sizes anywhere from the hundreds of nanometers range to the low micron range. Lastly, I'm not sure why CATL even brought up the cathode as a factor in charging speed. That's because the limiting factor for charging speed is the rate that lithium ions can travel to the anode and enter the thin sheets that make up the graphite in the anode. That means to increase the charge rate of a battery cell, the best way to do it is to increase the speed limit between the cathode and anode, so to speak, and to allow more lithium ions to enter the anode more quickly.
That's because the anode is like a parking lot for lithium ions, and traffic jams can occur when too many ions try to enter the anode at once. With that in mind, first, how did CATL reduce the molecular traffic jams at the anode? According to their press release, quote, CATL's latest second generation fast ion ring technology is used to modify the properties of the graphite surface, which increases intercalation channels and shortens the intercalation distance for lithium ions, creating an expressway for current conduction. Furthermore, a multi gradient layered electrode design has been developed to strike a perfect balance between fast charging and long range. And quote, to simplify that paragraph, CATL is promoting two separate innovations at the anode, the fast ion ring and the gradient electrode. The fast ion ring was the biggest mystery to me, because there's so many options in the literature to improve the charge rate of graphite in lithium ion batteries.
However, when CATL said fast ion ring, it made me think of this paper from 2019 by Zhang et al, titled nitrogen doped multi-channel graphite for high rate and high capacity lithium-ion battery. That paper caught my attention a few years ago, because it seemed like a simple and low-cost way to increase charge rate. It involved just two production steps. First, the graphite was stirred in an alkaline potassium hydroxide solution at low heat, then dried that etched the graphite or created grooves in it, which created greater surface area for lithium ions to enter and exit the graphite more quickly.
However, greater surface area also means the graphite has greater exposure to react with the electrolyte, which reduces the capacity of the battery cell. The solution to that was doping the particle with nitrogen, which was done by exposing the graphite to ammonia gas at high temperatures. The nitrogen doping blocks the lithium and the electrolyte from reacting with the surface of the graphite, but it also makes the surface of the graphite more electronegative, which allows the electro positive lithium ions to enter the graphite more easily.
In my view, the fast ion ring could be referring to the etching that encircles each graphite particle or to the nitrogen doping, which occurs at the edges of the molecular rings that make up the graphite. Either way, the paper uses language that's similar to the language that CATL used. It stated, quote, a multi-channel structure was proposed as a way to increase the number of lithium ion intercalation sites and reduce the lithium ion diffusion distance, end quote.
Compare that to CATL's wording, which said, quote, fast ion ring technology increases intercalation channels and shortens the intercalation distance, end quote. That is, CATL's press release appears to paraphrase what the research paper says, and some of the words used are identical. So, it's likely that the technology that they're using is the same or similar. The second innovation CATL mentioned at the anode was the multi-gradient layered electrode. A multi-gradient electrode is straightforward. Generally, there are two options when designing the anode of a lithium-ion battery.
First, it can be designed for power, which helps improve the charge rate. That involves designing the anode so that lithium ions can flow more easily, which can be done by making the cathode particle smaller or increasing the porosity of the cathode. However, that results in lower energy density because there's less volume devoted to storing lithium ions. Second, the anode can be designed for energy, where the battery can provide more miles of range through reduced weight and volume. That involves designing the anode so that there's less inert material and more energy storing material, which can be done by making the cathode particles larger or decreasing the porosity of the cathode.
However, that results in slower charging because there's less space for the lithium ions to flow freely and less surface area that they can use to enter the anode particles. As shown in this slide from N-Power, with a multi-gradient layered cathode, a highly porous upper layer allows lithium ions to flow freely for high power, and a particle-dense lower layer allows for greater energy storage. For a given battery design, that should allow for a battery cell with greater power or fast charge capability and little or no negative impact on energy density.
Next, let's look at how CATL increased the speed limit between the cathode and anode to increase charge rate. They state, quote, CATL has developed a brand new superconducting electrolyte formula, which effectively reduces the viscosity of the electrolyte, resulting in improved conductivity. In addition, CATL has improved the ultra-thin SEI film to reduce resistance of lithium-ion movement, end quote. First, SEI stands for solid electrolyte interface, which is a protective layer that forms on the anode the first time that a battery is charged that extends cycle life. A thinner SEI film should mean that the lithium ions can enter and exit the anode more easily.
I'm not sure how CATL made the SEI thinner, but they most likely achieve that by tweaking the mixture of chemicals that make up the electrolyte solution. More on that in a moment. Either way, my guess is that the thin SEI is a minor contributor to Shenxing's charge speed. With regards to CATL's comment about viscosity, it refers to how easily a liquid flows. Higher viscosity means the liquid flows more slowly, and lower viscosity means it flows more quickly. So a lower viscosity, or more flowable electrolyte, increases the speed limit for the lithium ions as they travel from the cathode to the anode. How did CATL achieve that? Let's look at the chemicals that make up a typical electrolyte solution.
The first is a solvent, such as ethylene carbonate. The second is a salt of lithium, like lithium hexafluorophosphate. The third is additive, such as vinylene carbonate. The reason why this mixture is used for the electrolyte is for a number of reasons, but one of the main reasons is that it results in battery cells with long cycle life. However, one of the drawbacks is that the carbonate-based solvents are relatively viscous, which results in slower ionic movement and therefore a slower charge rate.
One of the best ways to reduce the viscosity of the electrolyte and increase the charging speed is to swap the carbonate-based solvent for an ester-based solvent. Engineers from Tesla have said that by switching to an ester-based solvent, charging speed can be increased by 40%, but Tesla doesn't use those esters because they can negatively impact cycle life. So how did CATL get around the cycle life issue? Tesla's research partner, Jeff Don, has done a lot of research on esters, and he suggested a couple of ways to improve their cycle life. The first is to use an electrolyte that contains both carbonate and ester-based solvents, which is called the co-solveant method.
At an ester concentration of up to 20%, that results in faster charge rates without any apparent negative impacts to battery cycle life. The second option is to use a pure ester solvent, but to increase the additive concentration. Jeff's team suggests that an electrolyte using 5% additives mostly solves the cycle life issues. For reference, my understanding is that a typical additive loading is more like 1 to 2%. The additives are usually kept to a minimum because they can be expensive.
What all this means is that there are solutions available to mitigate the cycle life issues inherent with low viscosity solvents like esters. I don't see a TL used one of the exact formulas in the research papers I've just shown here, but they likely used a similar approach and borrowed from them. Before we move on, just to reinforce the point, I'd caution that there's a chance that Shen Xing could have a lower cycle life than a typical LFP battery cell. Notably, any discussion of cycle life was absent from the press release on Shen Xing.
Lastly, CATL's press release highlighted improvements to the separator. They stated, quote, in terms of separator, CATL lowered the transmission resistance of lithium ions with high porosity and shortened average transmission distance, end quote. And they also said, quote, the upgraded electrolyte and the separator with a highly safe coating are used to provide a dual protection of the Shen Xing battery end quote. To understand what CATL is saying here, let's take a look at what a separator is and its purpose. The cathode and anode of a lithium ion battery cell are long thin strips that are wound up into what's called a jelly roll.
The separator keeps the cathode and anode layers from touching and shorting out the battery cell, which means it needs to be made of an electrically insulative material such as plastic. A short can occur from external forces such as punctures or from internal forces like dendrites. Dendrites occur when lithium hasn't absorbed into the cathode or anode quickly enough and builds up on the electrodes. If the dendrites get tall enough, they can form a bridge between the cathode and anode, shorting it out. When that happens, energy flows across the bridge, releases heat and melts the separator.
That causes the separator to contract and more of the cathode and anode touch, which releases more heat and eventually the entire battery cell goes into thermal runaway. Interestingly, the fact that the separator is meant to be an electrical insulator is complicated by the fact that it needs to be as thin and porous as possible. It needs to be thin so that it takes up less weight and reduces the distance lithium ions need to travel between the electrodes.
And it needs to be porous so that it doesn't restrict the flow of lithium ions and allows them to take the most direct route between the electrodes. So what's the engineering solution to the fact that the separator needs to be tough, thin, porous and electrically insulative? As usual, there are several potential solutions. But in my view, the most likely solution for CATL is to use a separator coated with ceramic material, which could include materials such as alumina or bamite. That ceramic coating would dramatically improve not just the mechanical stability, but also the thermal stability of the separator.
That in turn would improve safety by keeping the separator from shrinking and contributing to thermal runaway, which would also allow the separator to be made thinner. A thinner separator would reduce the distance and therefore the ionic resistance between the cathode and anode, which could reduce heat generation and may improve the charge rate of the battery. It might also improve the energy density of the battery cell by trimming out an active material.
Now that we've looked at the technology that's likely behind the excellent charging performance of Shenxing, the question is, what are the drawbacks? Each of the technologies we discussed today has the potential to add cost to the battery cell. Many of those technologies will come down in cost, but for some of them, the extra cost may be embedded because they involve taking a standard battery material and upgrading it with extra processing steps that involve time, machinery, and money. With that said, none of the technologies that I expect CATL to use for Shenxing would dramatically increase its price over a standard LFP battery cell. That's because all the technologies are relatively simple, use low-cost materials, or are used in tiny amounts as a proportion of the total battery weight. That is, at scale, the cost premium would be relatively small, but the benefit would be large. That could tempt even typically penny-pinching auto manufacturers like Tesla to use Shenxing batteries or something similar.
But as I said earlier, there could also be a cycle life drawback for Shenxing if they haven't completely solved the cycle life challenges of an ester-based electrolyte. On the other hand, the cycle life would still be in the ballpark of a typical LFP battery cell. That means Shenxing would still have higher cycle life than a typical nickel-based battery cell, while likely having a cost closer to that of an LFP battery cell. The last question to address is whether Tesla could use some of the same technologies that are used in Shenxing for the 4680 battery cell to achieve faster charge rates. In short, yes, they could. That's because all the technologies used in Shenxing appear to be widely known by researchers like Tesla's partner Jeff Don, and in the industry where they're already in production. What was surprising about Shenxing, and made it seem like a breakthrough, was that CATL combined so many new technologies into one new product rather than over several generations.
And in my view, beyond the surprise factor, what's significant about CATL's Shenxing announcement is that CATL has taken it upon themselves to invest in these fast-charge technologies, likely through suppliers, to increase scale, drive down cost, and push the entire market forward. This is much the same way that Tesla took a risk on gigacasting, their 48-fold architecture, and dry-coated electrodes to push vehicle and battery manufacturing forward. And just like other companies have been, and will continue to benefit from Tesla's trailblazing, Tesla will benefit from CATL's trailblazing. So when will we see Tesla start making fast-charging 4680s? It's hard to say because that's more of a product decision.
That's because each of the technologies in Shenxing have potential trade-offs for cycle life and cost. And because Tesla may wait until there are more DC fast chargers that can actually support 4C or greater charge rates for the average vehicle. In summary, the CATL's Shenxing battery has impressive specs. Although the real-world range will be more subdued than they claimed, and the 205Wh per kilogram is likely overblown, Shenxing will likely be cheaper than the high nickel battery packs that they'll be competing with. There will be a price premium for Shenxing over regular LFP, but exactly how much that premium will be is difficult to say. If I find clues about the cost premium, I'll let you know. Either way, Shenxing gives us a glimpse of how fast all EVs will charge in the coming years. That's because, as I showed, Shenxing is actually a collection of technologies that have been in various stages of development for years, and I expect they'll all be available off the shelf and at low cost in the next few years.
On that note, any of the technologies used in Shenxing can be implemented as standalone improvements. Due to that, I wouldn't be surprised if specific customers and cell manufacturers pick and choose to use those technologies allocard to suit their needs. It all comes down to the trade-off decisions each manufacturer makes between cycle life, cost, and charge rate. My expectation is that, as usual, customers in China will be the first to adopt Shenxing, and then, over time, as the charging network matures, companies like Tesla will gradually follow suit. If you enjoyed this video, please consider supporting the channel by using the links in the description. Also, consider following me on X. I often use X as a testbed for sharing ideas, and X subscribers like my Patreon supporters generally get access to my videos a week early. On that note, a special thanks to my YouTube members, X subscribers, and all the other patrons listed in the credits. I appreciate all of your support, and thanks for tuning in.