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The Autonomous Boom Set in Motion / Tesla Is up to Something / Big Win for Tesla Energy ⚡️

发布时间 2024-11-20 01:25:07    来源
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. For those wanting to nerd out, we got official confirmation from not a Tesla app when it comes to the Sentry Mode efficiency improvements. The way it was before, the vehicle's cameras were connected to the FSD computer, which itself connects to the MCU or the Media Control Unit, which is finally connected to the USB ports. And because of that interconnection, that entire chain had to stay on when Sentry Mode was turned on. And the video footage had to be streamed from the FSD computer into the MCU, where processes like motion detection would occur. And then that data had to be compressed before being written to the USB drive. But going forward, Tesla is shifting the responsibilities of the vehicle computers. It sounds like the FSD computer will now be responsible for the motion detection and the compression, which means Tesla can keep the MCU asleep. The MCU is still required to push the video to the USB drive, but Tesla can now wake up the system only when it's needed. So in short, going forward, the MCU will not be continuously powered on to analyze and compress video. So far, this has only rolled out to the Cybertruck, but a source did confirm this will be coming to other Tesla models as well.
欢迎来到Electrified,我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。对于那些想要深入了解的人,我们收到了一份来自非官方Tesla app的确认,说明了Sentry Mode(哨兵模式)的效率提升。在此之前,车辆的摄像头是连接到FSD(全自动驾驶)电脑的,FSD电脑再连接到媒体控制单元(MCU),最后连接到USB接口。由于这种连接方式,当哨兵模式开启时,整个链条都必须保持开启状态。录像会从FSD电脑传输到MCU,在那里进行如动作检测等处理。然后,这些数据被压缩后才会写入到USB驱动器中。接下来,Tesla正在调整车辆电脑的职责。听起来,FSD电脑现在将负责动作检测和数据压缩,这意味着Tesla可以让MCU保持休眠。虽然MCU仍然需要将视频推送到USB驱动器,但Tesla现在可以在需要的时候唤醒系统。简而言之,以后MCU将不再需要连续保持运行来分析和压缩视频。目前,这项功能仅在Cybertruck上实现,但有消息人士确认,这项功能也将应用到其它Tesla车型上。

Just to get it out of the way, this is a new ad from Jaguar. Yes, the vehicle company. And this is what I mean when I say Tesla's competition is lost. Elon replied to the post and said, Do you sell cars? As you might expect, Jaguar is getting roasted in the comments. And heading to their website, you'll see the exact same theme, no pictures of any vehicles anywhere. The slogan, we're here to delete ordinary, to go bold, to copy nothing. So many things I could say about this one, but for now, just say, we'll see how this pans out. Eola Hughes from Roemotion, who we had the privilege of having on the channel a while back, shared an ex post saying, best system prices have fallen below $100 per kilowatt hour for the first time in China, on the back of record low LFP sell price. This is a chart worth understanding.
为了开门见山地说,这是一则来自捷豹的新广告。是的,就是那家汽车公司。这就是我所说的特斯拉的竞争对手已经迷失方向的意思。埃隆回复了这条帖子,说:“你们卖车吗?” 正如你所预料的那样,捷豹在评论区被嘲讽。而当你访问他们的网站时,你会看到同样的主题,没有任何车辆的图片。标语是“我们来是为了摒弃平凡,勇敢前行,不复制任何东西。” 对于这点我有很多话想说,但现在只能说,拭目以待。我们频道曾有幸邀请到的Roemotion的Eola Hughes分享了一条帖子,说中国的最佳系统价格史上首次降至每千瓦时100美元以下,这是受创记录的低价磷酸铁锂电池推动的。这是一个值得理解的图表。

The bar on the left is the dollars per kilowatt hour price for US-made modules and systems using Chinese cells, which has an average cost of $240 per kilowatt hour. Then over on the right, you see the Chinese made sell module and system sitting at $82 per kilowatt hour. And to go from US-made to China-made, you can see the differences in where those cost savings come from. A big one in pink, they highlight Chinese players are minimizing margin to gain market share. And they call out the most significant saving is due to vertical integration when it comes to the actual cost of the cells. We'll see what Tesla chooses to do when it comes to pricing of the megapack out of the Shanghai megapactory sometime in quarter one. But all indications are that the cost of goods sold for the megapack out of Shanghai is going to be significantly lower than the ones out of laythrough.
左边的条形图表示使用中国电池制造的美国模块和系统的每千瓦时美元价格,平均成本为每千瓦时240美元。右侧是中国制造的电池模块和系统,价格为每千瓦时82美元。比较美国制造和中国制造,可以看到哪些地方导致了成本节省。粉色部分突出显示中国企业为了获得市场份额,正在最小化利润。而他们指出,最大的成本节省来自垂直整合,这在电池的实际成本上尤为明显。特斯拉将在第一季度公布其上海超级工厂生产的Megapack的定价选择,但各种迹象表明,上海生产的Megapack的销售成本将显著低于其他地方生产的。

Finally, months later, police are getting involved when it comes to the protests against Tesla's expansion at Gigabrelin. Police are now clearing that camp of protesters. I think it shows that all means of being tried here to push us away from this place, which is actually pointless because we say that what they are planning here is of no use to anyone. It's simply for the profit of Tesla, of Elon Musk, of capitalism. And for that, the forest is being destroyed. It's just wild to me that these people really believe Tesla is the company to protest of all the companies out there. I don't want to read too far into this, but Tesla manufacturing did share on X the Gigas small house over at Gigabrelin. It's solely powered by the Sun in Powerwall 3. It's basically just a small display room to highlight the entire Tesla ecosystem. But I still imagine a world maybe 5, 10, 15 years from now when Tesla has hundreds of billions of dollars in cash where they can actually make something like a small house, perhaps in partnership with some other contracting companies.
终于,在几个月之后,警方开始介入反对特斯拉在柏林超级工厂扩张的抗议活动。警察现在正在清理那里的抗议者营地。我认为这表明,他们在用尽一切手段将我们从这个地方驱赶走,而这实际上是毫无意义的,因为我们认为他们在这里的计划对任何人都没有用处。它仅仅是为了特斯拉、埃隆·马斯克和资本主义的利润。而为了这个,森林正在被破坏。我真觉得不可思议,这些人真的认为在所有公司中,特斯拉是值得抗议的对象。我不想过多揣测,但特斯拉在某个平台上分享了他们在柏林超级工厂的小型展示屋。这个展示屋完全由太阳能电池和Powerwall 3供电,主要是用来展示整个特斯拉生态系统。不过我仍然可以想象,也许在未来5、10、15年内,特斯拉拥有数千亿美元的现金时,他们可能会真正建造这样的小房子,或许与其他建筑公司合作。

Essentially, where this small house display turns into a real-world product. Something to keep in mind, the economic minister of Brandenburg, York Steinbach said that he would not be willing to congratulate Elon on a Trump victory, calling the win highly problematic in saying he has directly argued with Elon in recent months. There was some more political back and forth, I'll have the article linked below, but the main point is that York did say Tesla is still looking to expand its facility in Grunhida in the coming months. But York did say that he's been arguing intensively with Elon over the past few months, so we'll see how that expansion goes and if Elon changes any plans.
基本上,这个小型房屋展示将发展为一个现实世界的产品。需要注意的是,勃兰登堡的经济部长约克·施泰因巴赫表示,他不会因为特朗普胜利而祝贺埃隆(马斯克),认为这种胜利非常有问题,并称他最近几个月曾直接与埃隆发生争论。在政治上有一些争论,你可以在下面的文章链接中查看。但关键是,约克确实表示特斯拉仍计划在未来几个月里扩大其在格伦希德的设施。不过约克也提到,他最近几个月与埃隆进行了激烈的争论,所以我们将看看扩建进展如何,以及埃隆是否会改变计划。

I'm sure most of you saw all of the videos from Kim Kardashian with Optimus and the CyberCab from last night. I was hoping to wait a bit to uncover what was going on and to get more insight into the situation, but there's remarkably little information out yet. All we know is that Elon and Kim did have a conversation back at the Met Gala in 2022. Elon is aware of the videos as he reposted this one on X. Replying to that, a shock said it looks like that robot's not coming back and then the Optimus account said sorry you had to find out this way. And honestly, it's very hard to tell if they're joking or being serious or both. And yes, we all have the same questions, is this being teleoperated, is it doing this autonomously, is this at Kim's house? In this one, why is there a gold Optimus? Apparently it's one of one sitting in the Tesla CyberCab. Kim was praising the design of the CyberCab and then Franz replied saying thanks Kim K, amazing team, more to come. Certainly more questions than answers right now, but it feels like there might be something going on here and we'll get an announcement in the weeks or months ahead. Either way, I'll definitely have my eyes open.
我相信大多数人昨晚都看到了金·卡戴珊与Optimus机器人和CyberCab的所有视频。我本来想等一等,弄清楚具体情况后再揭开谜底,但目前信息极少。我们只知道埃隆和金在2022年的Met Gala上有过一次对话。埃隆知道这些视频,因为他在X平台上重新发布了其中一个。对此,一位评论者说看起来那个机器人不会回来了,然后Optimus的账户回复说很遗憾你要以这种方式得知这个消息。坦白说,很难判断他们是在开玩笑还是认真的,或者两者都是。是的,我们都有相同的问题:这是否是经过远程操作的,还是机器人自主行动?这是在金的家里吗?为什么这次有一个金色的Optimus机器人?显然,这是唯一一个正坐在特斯拉CyberCab里的Optimus。金称赞了CyberCab的设计,随后Franz回复说谢谢金,团队很棒,还有更多期待。目前显然疑问多于答案,但感觉这里可能有些事情在发生,我们可能会在接下来的几周或几个月内收到公告。不管怎样,我肯定会密切关注。

Trump has chosen his new transportation secretary and it's not Emile Michael as the reporting was yesterday, it's going to be Sean Duffy. Here's what he said about autonomy six years ago. Our reality is catching up with movies like Blade Runner, Demolition Man, Minority Report. We are seeing the capabilities of fully autonomous vehicles being tested in cities like San Francisco, Miami, Pittsburgh and more. Automanturns policies have already been impacted by AVs. For instance, we already have level two and level three AVs in the road. Manufacturers like Tesla already employing adaptive cruise control technology which lets you take your hands off the wheel for a lengthened period of time. There are a lot of people out there that are somewhat resistant to entrusting their lives with autonomous vehicles and there's others who just want to drive. But then at the end of the day, safety will be the top concern before the public is ready to trust AVs.
特朗普选择了他的新任交通部长,并不是昨天报道中提到的埃米尔·迈克尔,而是肖恩·达菲。以下是他在六年前对自动驾驶的看法。我们的现实正在追赶《银翼杀手》、《超世纪战警》、《少数派报告》等电影。我们正在看到完全自动驾驶汽车的能力在旧金山、迈阿密、匹兹堡等城市进行测试。自动化的政策已经受到自动驾驶汽车的影响。例如,我们现在的道路上已经有二级和三级自动驾驶汽车。像特斯拉这样的制造商已经使用了自适应巡航控制技术,这可以让你在更长的时间内不用手握方向盘。有很多人对将自己的生命交给自动驾驶汽车持某种抵制态度,还有些人只是喜欢自己开车。但是,最终,安全性将是公众准备信任自动驾驶汽车前的首要考虑因素。

We have seen the reaction from both industry and the public to recent accidents and how it has altered views on how ready this technology is from and for being deployed. There are others ready for the change. Senior citizens are the perfect demographic for AVs. The oldest among us are clam marine for this new technology. They don't want to drive any more than we want to be behind a Cadillac going 10 miles an hour under the speed limit. If you talk to millennials, they're a generation, they're even on cars. They like public transportation. They think of Uber and Lyft also as public transportation. At the corporate level, Uber SUVs and Uber Black are how executives get around town. These ridesharing companies are also looking at employing fleets of fully autonomous vehicles. This technology can be remarkable in keeping our families and our kids safe.
我们已经看到了近期事故引发的行业和公众反应,以及它如何改变了大家对这项技术准备程度的看法。有些人已经准备好接受这种改变。老年人是自动驾驶汽车的理想人群。其中最年长的人对这种新技术充满期待。他们不想再开车了,就像我们不希望开车时后面有辆凯迪拉克以低于限速10英里的速度行驶一样。如果你和千禧一代聊聊,他们这一代对汽车的热情不大,更喜欢公共交通。他们将Uber和Lyft视为公共交通的一种。在企业层面,Uber的SUV和Uber Black已经成为高管在城市中出行的方式。这些共享出行公司也在考虑使用全自动驾驶汽车车队。这项技术在保护我们的家庭和孩子方面可能具有显著的优势。

In Wisconsin, some of you might have heard, there was a big investment from Foxconn. They're looking to work with the Wisconsin DOT to create AV dedicated lanes to drive over 4,000 employees to their jobs at the company's plant. All of a sudden, transportation to and from work could be a perk of the job. Autonomous vehicles, they're coming. What I hope to find out today is how insurers are looking at AVs in terms of insurability. We'll auto manufacturers and tech companies developing the driving systems. Will they retain liability for damage? Will specialized products be developed within the industry? How will data be shared for risk assessment? Given how optimistic Sean was on autonomous vehicles six years ago, I think that bodes well for what we're about to see in the months ahead.
在威斯康星州,有些人可能听说过,富士康进行了一项大型投资。他们打算与威斯康星州交通部合作,创建专用的自动驾驶车道,以便将超过4000名员工送到公司工厂上班。突然之间,通勤变成了工作的一项福利。自动驾驶汽车即将到来。今天我希望了解的是,保险公司如何看待自动驾驶汽车的可保性。汽车制造商和开发驾驶系统的科技公司会对损害承担责任吗?行业内是否会开发专门的产品?用于风险评估的数据将如何共享?鉴于肖恩六年前对自动驾驶汽车持乐观态度,我认为这预示着我们即将在接下来的几个月中看到积极的发展。

And the CEO of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association group said it's imperative a federal policy framework on AVs be put in place so the US can lead on this critical tech in the 21st century. There's not a lot out there on Sean, but he has made comments that may signal support for a bipartisan right to repair law. And we've talked about in the past how that's actually been a pretty big storyline for Tesla over the years and they've developed a lot in that area so we'll see what happens here. Duffy still needs to be confirmed by the Senate, but the truth is right now the way I see it, there really has never been more positive momentum behind autonomous vehicles than there is right now. And with Tesla's version 13 series right around the corner, it may be time to get your popcorn ready.
自动驾驶汽车行业协会的CEO表示,制定一项关于自动驾驶汽车的联邦政策框架是至关重要的,这样美国才能在21世纪引领这一关键技术。关于Sean的信息不多,但他发表了一些可能表明支持两党合作的维修权法案的评论。我们过去也曾讨论过特斯拉在这一领域的发展,这是这些年来的一个重要话题,他们在这个领域取得了很多进展,所以我们拭目以待。Duffy仍然需要得到参议院的确认,但事实上,以我现在的看法,自动驾驶汽车从未像现在这样有积极的推动力。而随着特斯拉的第13版本系列即将推出,可能是时候准备好你的爆米花了。

The FTC recently issued a stern warning to automakers stating it's begun to look much more closely at the data being collected from the smart vehicles. We also heard the attorney general in Texas filed a lawsuit against GM alleging that they were collecting and selling driver data to insurance companies without the consumers consent. The lawsuit claims the data of about 1.8 million drivers in Texas has been sold at a profit to third party brokers. Many people don't know that just a phone number can be used by these data brokers to uncover much more information like your social security number, your address, email and family details. Duke actually put out a research report on the topic and they said data brokers are openly and explicitly advertising data for sale on US individuals sensitive demographic information. I think you get the point I just want all of you to be aware of what's going on.
美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)最近向汽车制造商发出了严厉警告,表示开始更加密切地关注智能汽车收集的数据。同时,我们也听说德克萨斯州的总检察长对通用汽车(GM)提起了一项诉讼,指控他们在未经消费者同意的情况下收集并出售司机数据给保险公司。诉讼声称,大约180万名德克萨斯州司机的数据被出售给第三方经纪商以盈利。许多人不知道,仅仅是一个电话号码就可以被这些数据经纪人用来发现更多信息,比如你的社会安全号码、地址、电子邮件和家庭细节。杜克大学实际上还发布了一份关于这个话题的研究报告,他们指出数据经纪人公开且明确地在出售美国个人敏感人口信息。我想你能理解我的意思,我只是希望大家对正在发生的事情有所警惕。

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The Tesla China weekly number came in at 17,100 and that's back to back weeks above 17,000 comparing it to week seven and quarter three. That number was 14,300. So quarter over quarter is effectively flat down point one two percent. Week seven of quarter four last year came in at 16,300. And so year over year, Tesla China is now up 19.46%. If they want to set a new record quarter, they would have to average just over 16,233 units per week. But perhaps one of the more exciting takeaways, there were 7,200 model threes delivered, which was the second highest number since they did the refresh. This number has been quite volatile. So far this quarter, there's been more batching than usual, but could it be that Tesla is switching some of the model wide lines over to Project Juniper? That's just speculation on my part based on all of the breadcrumbs we've seen over the past few months.
特斯拉中国的周产量达到17,100辆,这已经是连续两周超过17,000辆了。与第三季度第七周相比,当时的产量为14,300辆,因此季度环比基本持平,下降了0.12%。去年第四季度第七周的产量为16,300辆,因此特斯拉中国同比增长了19.46%。如果他们想创造新的季度记录,他们每周需要平均交付超过16,233辆。更值得关注的是,其中有7,200辆Model 3交付,这是自改款以来的第二高数值。这个数字一直波动较大。本季度到目前为止,生产模式比以往批量更多,但这是否意味着特斯拉将部分Model Y的生产线转移到“Project Juniper”?这只是我基于过去几个月的信息碎片做出的推测。

But given some incentive extensions over in China, there's a real chance Tesla sets another record quarter in quarter four figure shared an update on its partnership with BMW saying figure 02 is now an autonomous fleet operating the end to end use case 400% faster with a seven time tires success rate figure is committed to shipping millions of robots to companies and homes worldwide. So every now and then a Wall Street analyst will say something about Tesla and it's accurate and it makes sense. This is one of those examples. Is it going to be a different regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles or is it going to be taking away that tax credit? What's going to matter more? It's going to be giving less regulatory restrictions on robo taxis definitely.
鉴于中国方面的一些激励措施延长,特斯拉在第四季度有很大可能创造新的记录。此外,Figure公司分享了其与宝马合作的最新进展,他们表示,Figure 02现在是一个自动化车队,在端到端的用例中运行速度提高了400%,成功率提高了七倍。Figure致力于向全球的企业和家庭交付数百万个机器人。不时会有华尔街分析师对特斯拉发表评论,其中有些准确且有见地。这就是这样的一个例子。对于自动驾驶汽车,监管环境会有所不同,还是会取消税收优惠?哪一个影响更大呢?毫无疑问,减少对自动驾驶出租车的监管限制会更为重要。

Federal restrictions was one of the big reasons why GM stopped making its origin purpose-built vehicle, right? That allows you to make a vehicle without pedals and steering wheels. So you need that federal deregulation if you were to call it a policy framework in order to allow for that. That's what the Tesla cybercap is. If you look at autonomy and AI, etc, that comes at a much higher multiple. You have a trillion plus dollar market cap for Tesla. Are you going to get there with an auto business for selling more cars or through AI autonomy, right? So autonomy is the way they can justify that market cap more they can from selling cars. You know, my robo tax evaluation is 44% of my whole price target. FSD is 33%, right?
联邦限制是通用汽车停止制造最初专用车辆的主要原因之一,对吗?这些限制使你无法制造没有踏板和方向盘的车辆。所以,如果你希望这种政策框架放松,那就需要联邦层面的解除限制。而这正是特斯拉网络出租车(Tesla Cybercap)的意义所在。如果你考虑自动驾驶和人工智能等因素,它们带来的市值要高得多。特斯拉的市值超过一万亿美元。你是通过卖更多汽车达到这个市值,还是通过人工智能自动驾驶的方式呢?因此,通过自动驾驶,他们可以更合理地证明那样的市值,而不是仅仅通过卖车。你看,我的机器人出租车评估占我整个价格目标的44%,全自动驾驶(FSD)占33%。对吧?

So like the sky, not the sky, the limit, but you get the idea, right? Like we're talking about huge multiples and so that deregulation, I'm not surprised. If you believe in robo taxis, you do believe in autonomy. FSD, if you believe in it, having deregulation kind of sets everything in motion to achieve what this company wants to achieve. Tesla charging said you can now tap on the supercharger pin to see if there are trailer compatible stalls. If your vehicle is in trailer mode, trailer friendly supercharger locations appear at the top of the list. While Jaguar is hyper focused on not copying anyone and doing whatever it is they're doing, BYD is actually copying Tesla.
就像天空,不是天空,而是极限。不过你明白我的意思,对吧?我们在谈论巨大的倍增,因此放松管制,我并不感到惊讶。如果你相信机器人出租车,你就相信自动驾驶。全自动驾驶,如果你相信它,那么放松管制就为这家公司实现目标铺平了道路。特斯拉充电表示,你现在可以点选超级充电站的图标,查看是否有适合拖车的充电桩。如果你的车辆处于拖车模式,适合拖车的超级充电站会显示在列表的顶部。虽然捷豹专注于不模仿别人并坚持他们自己的风格,比亚迪实际上是在模仿特斯拉。

BYD is now working on its own self driving chip after other companies like Neo X, paying in Tesla have done the same. They're touting a power of 80 tops or Terra operations per second. If you wanted to compare it loosely to Tesla's hardware or AI4, that's 50 tops per chip. But remember, there's two on each vehicle and that's for redundancy. So if you wanted to be technical, you could say a Tesla vehicle has 100 tops of compute power with AI4. But the hope is that this in house developed chip from BYD will start to go into models within two to three years.
比亚迪正在研发自己的自动驾驶芯片,此前其他公司如Neo X和小鹏(暗指特斯拉)也做了类似的事情。他们声称这一芯片能够达到每秒80万亿次运算(Tops)。如果松散地与特斯拉的硬件或AI4进行比较,特斯拉的每个芯片是每秒50万亿次运算,但每辆车上有两个芯片进行冗余处理,所以技术上来说,特斯拉的AI4能够提供100万亿次的计算能力。比亚迪希望这种自主研发的芯片能在两到三年内开始应用在其车型上。

Until then BYD will continue to use chips from Nvidia. But much later in the future, BYD does plan to have its in house developed chip in all of its vehicles. Tesla has a new retail partnership in Australia, similar to how they've been working with Best Buy here in the States. The Powerwall 3, wall connector and mobile connector will now be sold at these Bunnings warehouse locations. Tesla stock closed the day at $346 flat up 2.14% while the Nasdaq was up 1.04%. And the volume was 12% below the average.
在此之前,比亚迪将继续使用来自英伟达的芯片。但在未来,远期来看,比亚迪计划将其自主研发的芯片应用到所有车辆中。特斯拉在澳大利亚建立了新的零售合作伙伴,类似于他们在美国与Best Buy的合作。现在,Powerwall 3、墙壁连接器和移动连接器将在Bunnings仓储店销售。特斯拉的股票收盘价为346美元,上涨了2.14%,而纳斯达克指数上涨了1.04%。成交量比平均水平低12%。

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