Markets Weekly November 9, 2024

Hello my friends, today is November 9th and this is Markets Weekly. What a week in markets, right? So many big things happening both in markets and in the world. Most notably of course we saw the S&P 500 surge past 6,000 although closing the week a little bit below. As many of you know, last December when the S&P 500 was trading comfortably below 5,000 when people all over the place were crying for recession. I said that we would have a tremendous year in the S&P 500 and gave a 6,000 target. So permit me now to gloat a little bit. Okay, now of course at that time I didn't know that we would actually get 6,000 I just knew based on my judgment on the financial system, how the world works that we would have a tremendous year and it has been a tremendous year. In June again having a little bit more clarity it seemed like the only way we would get to 6,000 was through a Trump victory. That's what we got and we are at 6,000.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是11月9日，欢迎收看《市场周刊》。市场这一周真是不平凡啊！市场和世界上都发生了很多大事。其中最引人注目的是标普500指数突破了6000点，虽然周末时略有回落。去年12月，当标普500指数还在5000点以下时，很多人都在担心经济衰退。我当时说标普500指数会迎来一个丰收年，并设定了6000点的目标。现在请允许我稍稍得意一下。当然，那时我并不知道我们真的会达到6000点，只是根据我对金融系统和世界运作的判断，认为这是一个美好的一年。到了今年6月，局势更明朗了，似乎只有特朗普胜选才能让我们达到6000点。结果也是如此，我们达到了6000点。

So today we're only going to talk about one topic and it's a big topic and that is what this all means because frankly it seems like the country is going to change and the world will be as well. Now before we proceed further I want to note that some of you are not happy with the outcome of the election and I understand that. But I will also note that I saw hitting into the final stretches of the election Vice President Harris just running around and just comparing her political opponent to historical mass murderers and selling all sorts of things that are not true. So if you are feeling upset or apprehensive about the outcome remember that we already had President Trump for four years everything was fine and a lot of the things that you heard are simply not true. For example one of the most egregious examples of this is what's commonly called the fine people hoax which has been said by Obama, by Biden and by Harris which basically they tell everyone that Trump called Nazis and bad people to be very fine people. The truth is that never happened in fact that's the complete opposite of what Trump said. Now the context is that a few years ago there was a lot of commotion in Charlottesville. Trump gone on stage and said that we're fine people on both sides noting that of course in any group of people you have a lot of commotion a lot of chaos you don't really know what's happening some of the people were really just earnest protesters but then he immediately said this and you had people and I'm not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists because they should be condemned totally but you had many people in that group other than neo-Nazis and white nationalists okay and the press has treated them absolutely unfairly. So as you can see very clearly Trump openly strongly condemned the Nazis and the white supremacists and so forth. So if you believe that and if you heard that you know you were lied to and I would also add that during Trump's first term a tremendous amount of people were saying the sky is a Russian agent and so forth. Said that for years but then we had an independent inspector general take a look and he found no evidence of that. So again a lot of the things that people are most afraid of when it comes to Trump are just based on hoaxes. Okay with that being said let's continue with our program.

今天我们只谈论一个话题，这是个大话题，那就是这些变化意味着什么。坦白说，似乎这个国家和世界都将发生改变。在我们进一步讨论之前，我想指出一些人对选举结果不满，我能理解。但是我也要提到，在选举最后阶段，我看到副总统哈里斯到处跑，把她的政治对手跟历史上的大规模杀人犯相提并论，并宣传各种不实信息。所以，如果你对结果感到不安或担忧，记住我们已经经历了四年的特朗普总统任期，一切都很好，你们听到的很多事情根本不属实。比如一个最具误导性的例子是所谓的“优秀人的骗局”，奥巴马、拜登和哈里斯都曾声称特朗普称纳粹和坏人为优秀的人。事实上，这从未发生过，这与特朗普的原意完全相反。大背景是，几年前在夏洛茨维尔发生了一些骚动。特朗普在台上说，双方都有优秀的人，指出在任何一群人中你都会看到很多骚动和混乱，不知道到底发生了什么。有些人只是诚实的抗议者，然后他马上补充说，我不是在谈论那些新纳粹和白人民族主义者，因为他们应当被完全谴责。但在那个群体中除了新纳粹和白人民族主义者还有很多其他人，媒体对他们的报道非常不公平。所以你可以很清楚看到，特朗普公开强烈谴责了纳粹和白人至上主义者。因此，如果你相信那些谣言，那么你被误导了。我还要补充说，在特朗普第一个任期期间，有大量的人说他是俄罗斯特工等等。这个说法持续了几年，但后来一个独立督察总长调查后发现没有证据。所以，很多人对特朗普的恐惧只是建立在谣言之上。好了，有了这些说明，让我们继续我们的讨论。

So the elections outcomes was really unequivocal if you look at a map you can see that Trump won the Electoral College won the popular vote and if you look at the quote-unquote swing states that many people were mentioning you know things like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and so forth. Trump won all of the swing states. It was a very very clear election, carried the Senate and although we don't have the House results so far it looks highly likely that the Republicans will also take the House. Now all this means that there is a strong popular mandate for Trump to carry out his agenda and that agenda is very very different from the agenda of the prior administration and so that is really shaking markets.

选举结果非常明确。从地图上可以看到，特朗普赢得了选举人团和普选票。如果看一下所谓的摇摆州，比如宾夕法尼亚州、内华达州和亚利桑那州等，特朗普赢得了所有这些州的胜利。这次选举非常清晰，他还赢得了参议院的多数席位。虽然众议院的结果尚未出炉，但共和党也很有可能赢得众议院。这一切意味着特朗普得到了强烈的民意授权去推行他的议程，而这个议程与前一届政府的政策截然不同，因此这对市场产生了很大冲击。

Looking at price action the past week well first we'll see that equities obviously going to the moon doing tremendously. Wow in particular you can see Tesla up almost 30% this week. Looking at currencies you see the dollar just strengthening massively against other developed market currencies. Looking at rates we did see kind of a jump in the tenure yield after the election that's retraced a bit and interestingly we saw gold sell off.

在过去的一周里，从价格走势来看，股市显然表现得非常出色。特别是，特斯拉本周涨幅接近30%。从货币市场来看，美元相对于其他发达国家的货币大幅走强。在利率方面，我们注意到选举后十年期国债收益率有所上升，但随后稍微回落。有趣的是，黄金市场出现下跌。

So what to make from all this price action I think the way that I'm going about going about explaining this is first we'll talk about Trump's foreign policy and then domestic policy and explain price action through that. Now starting with foreign policy the big big change that Trump is proposing is of course the liberal use of tariffs. Now during the campaign period the tariffs were being billed as some kind of national sales tax it would raise class and so forth. Now that's again political rhetoric totally nonsense. You can actually hear Trump explain this himself in his Bloomberg interview he did a few weeks ago. America the moment has three trillion dollars worth of imports you're going to add tariffs to every single one of them that is going to push up the costs for all those people who want to buy foreign goods.

那么如何看待所有这些价格变动呢？我想我的解释方式是，首先我们将讨论特朗普的外交政策，然后是国内政策，并通过这些政策来解释价格变动。现在先从外交政策开始，特朗普提出的重大变化当然是自由使用关税。在竞选期间，关税被宣传成某种国家销售税，这将提高阶层等等。现在，这仍然是政治上的言辞，完全是无稽之谈。你可以在几周前特朗普的彭博社采访中亲自听到他解释这一点。美国目前有三万亿美元的进口商品，如果对每一项都加征关税，那将增加所有想购买外国商品的消费者的成本。

Now what's good is the simple mathematics present Trump. It's not this yet is but not the way you figure it out. I was always very good at mathematics. Let me tell you you're saying three trillion dollars worth of inputs. And they don't have to pay and if by the higher the tariff the more likely it is to have them come into the higher the tariff the more you're going to put on the value of that those goods the higher people are going to pay in shops. Ready to hire the tariff the more likely it is that the company will come into the United States and build a factory in the United States so it doesn't have to pay the tariff. That would take that would take many.

翻译成中文： 现在，有一个简单的数学问题是关于特朗普的。虽然目前这还不是最终的结论，但这不是你通常想的方式。我一直都很擅长数学。让我告诉你，现在是三万亿美元的输入额，他们不需要支付费用。如果关税提高，他们更有可能进来，关税越高，你赋予这些商品的价值就越高，顾客在商店支付的费用也会更高。提高关税越有可能会让公司进入美国，在美国建立工厂，这样他们就不需要支付关税了。不过，这将需要很长时间。

So basically what Trump is saying that the tariffs are going to be a negotiating tool. He wants companies to build factories in America and create jobs for Americans. If the countries don't do this I mean he's going to put tariffs on them not small tariffs but really really big tariffs so they have no choice but to move here. Now this is kind of already scaring some people. The European Union notably Ursula von der Leyen president of the European community gave a speech saying that you know maybe we could buy more US oil and gas so again this is already having some outcomes. More broadly speaking if you are like me and you studied economics in school you would have gone through countless economics classes telling you that trade is good free trade is good you know and it is good but the good benefits are unevenly distributed. If you can just look back a little bit you can see that in this free trade period millions and millions of Americans lost their jobs.

基本上，特朗普的意思是，他将关税作为一种谈判工具。他希望各国公司在美国建厂，为美国人创造就业机会。如果这些国家不这么做，他就会对它们征收关税，而且不是小的关税，而是非常大的关税，让它们别无选择只能搬到美国。这个策略已经让一些人感到担忧了。欧洲联盟，特别是欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen），就曾发表讲话提到，也许可以购买更多美国的石油和天然气，所以这些已经开始有了一些影响。更广泛地说，如果你和我一样在学校学过经济学，你一定上过无数关于贸易有益、自由贸易好的课程，这确实是有益的，但好处的分配并不均衡。回顾一下，在自由贸易的时期，数百万美国人失去了工作。

Or you can look across the sea to China and China does not practice free trade right they sell a lot of stuff to the US but if you want to sell stuff into China not as easy not as easy. You really have to have some kind of joint partnership or some kind of approval and over the past few decades this policy not at all free trade has done tremendously well in China they really really uphold hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. So this free trade dogma this is really not the whole picture and what Trump is trying to do is to try to change this entire free trade apparatus such that it could be more beneficial to American workers. Now to be clear this is going to be you know a bumpy ride other countries could retaliate there could be a lot of commotion that was certainly the case the first time around when Trump did his trade deals.

或者你可以看看海对面的中国，中国并不实行自由贸易。他们向美国出售大量商品，但如果你想向中国出售商品，就没那么容易了。你通常需要某种合作伙伴关系或获得某种批准。在过去的几十年里，这种并不完全自由贸易的政策在中国取得了巨大成功，真正帮助数以亿计的人摆脱了贫困。因此，自由贸易的观念并不是事情的全貌。特朗普想要做的是改变整个自由贸易体系，使其更加有利于美国的工人。当然，这将是一段艰难的旅程，其他国家可能会进行反击，可能会引发很多混乱。这在特朗普第一次进行贸易协议谈判时就确实出现过。

But ultimately though through that process we did get to renegotiate the NAFTA deal in North America and of course we did get some concessions on trade with China. Now that being said this is going to be messy we already know that Trump rehired Robert Leitheiser to run his trade policy and Robert Leitheiser this time around seems to also be fond of maybe some currency policy in his toolkit as well so we'll see how that develops. But this trade policy goes a long way in explaining the dollar's reaction. Now if you put big tariffs on other countries like China like Europe it's going to be bad for their currencies. Many countries let's say Germany or China have a big industrial policy that is geared towards selling goods to other countries and the US is the largest consumer market in the world as we all know Americans buy stuff buy lots of stuff and they when they run out of money they borrow money to buy more stuff and because the US is such a large consumer market that is what gives Trump leverage to do these negotiations.

最终，虽然这个过程确实复杂，但我们成功重新谈判了北美的《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）协议，当然，我们也在对华贸易上取得了一些让步。不过，这过程预计会很混乱，因为我们已经知道特朗普重新任命罗伯特·莱特希泽负责他的贸易政策，而这次，莱特希泽似乎还对某些货币政策感兴趣，所以我们将拭目以待其发展。但这一贸易政策很大程度上解释了美元的反应。如果对中国和欧洲等国家实施高关税，会对它们的货币产生负面影响。像德国或中国这样的国家拥有庞大的工业政策，主要是为了向其他国家销售商品。而美国是世界上最大的消费市场，众所周知，美国人消费能力强，即使用完钱也会借钱继续消费。正是因为美国有这么大的消费市场，这才赋予特朗普在进行这些谈判时的筹码。

But at the moment the European Union not doing so well when it comes to their economy in China neither. So if they were to put tariffs on Europe and China that suggests weaker economies for them and for other countries that export to the US and that would force a monetary policy response such that their central bank would have to be a bit more dovish. And you actually see that in pricing as well Trump pricing suggests more rate cuts from the ECB. Again whitening stages to a differential strengthens the dollar and you can also think further that maybe it would lead to more fiscal stimulus in China as well I don't know. But again this is this whole big chess board where there are a lot of moving pieces we only see what we see right now in the future we'll have more insight as we see what the other players do and as Trump picks his cabinet out.

目前，欧盟和中国的经济表现都不太好。如果美国对欧洲和中国加征关税，这将导致他们的经济进一步疲弱，也会影响其他向美国出口的国家。因此，他们的央行可能不得不采取更宽松的货币政策。在定价中也可以看到这一点，特朗普的定价表明欧洲央行可能会进一步降息。这种差异会使美元走强，同时也可能导致中国采取更多的财政刺激措施。不过，这就像一个国际象棋棋盘，有很多变化的因素。我们现在只能看到目前的情况，而未来会随着其他国家的行动和特朗普组建内阁而不断变化。

Now another thing that has to do with foreign policy of course is war. Now Trump during his presidency didn't start any wars he's been very vocal about ending the war in Ukraine and I would think wants to have more stable Middle East. And you know immediately afterwards his election it seems like there was a bit less of a geopolitical premium in markets you saw gold selling off and it seems like oil reacted negatively as well. So a lot of the conflict in Ukraine is possible because the Western powers continue to finance it. Now Trump has been very open he doesn't want to do this anymore and so I would consider that that conflict to be settled. Again you may not like how it's settled but it is going to be settled. In the Middle East Trump seems to be has a history of standing strong against for Israel against the other neighboring countries so maybe the over powering the over going power of the United States would also deter other actors in the Middle East so maybe we have more stability there. In any case on another note on oil it's possible that you know Trump could put on sanctions on Iranian oil and that could decrease the supply of global oil that it counterbalance the otherwise pro drilling aspect of the Trump agenda. So we don't know a lot of unknowns here but I think this is what explains both the dollar strength and when it comes to foreign rates reaction in markets and of course gold as well.

当然，与外交政策有关的另一个方面就是战争。在特朗普担任总统期间，他没有发动任何战争，他一直积极主张结束乌克兰的战争，而且我认为他希望中东更稳定。你会发现，在他当选后不久，市场上的地缘政治溢价有所下降，黄金价格下跌，石油价格似乎也出现了负面反应。乌克兰冲突的延续很大程度上是因为西方国家继续为其提供资金。特朗普已经明确表示他不想再继续这样做，所以我认为这个冲突将会得到解决。可能你不喜欢这种解决方式，但它会得到解决。在中东方面，特朗普一贯坚定支持以色列，反对其他邻国，所以美国的强大力量可能会威慑中东的其他国家，也许会带来更多的稳定。 另外，在石油方面，特朗普可能会对伊朗石油实施制裁，这可能会减少全球石油供应，从而抵消特朗普政策中支持开采石油的倾向。这里有很多未知数，但我认为这可以解释美元的强势，以及市场中对外汇率和黄金的反应。

Now moving on to the domestic agenda now I think what really stands out for Trump is immigration so that is kind of a huge issue that Trump has lashed onto ever since his candidacy several years ago. Now the American public obviously don't like massive illegal immigration. Now this is true I think broadly speaking many countries in the western world are unhappy about immigration policy. Trump has said that maybe he's well first off of course he wants to seal the border less illegal immigration. I think that's going to be done whether or not he's going to deport all the tens of millions of people that have come here. I think that's a lot harder to do but the priority of course would be as he's mentioned before to deport illegal immigrants that have committed crimes. Now the policy that he's mentioned before that I heard on the All In podcast was that he would like to give the right to work to foreigners who come to the US and graduate from US universities or at least some of them. So it's so sad when we lose people from Harvard, MIT, from the greatest schools and lesser schools that are phenomenal schools also. And what I wanted to do and I would have done this but then we had to solve the COVID problem because that came in and you know sort of dominated for a little while as you perhaps know but what I want to do and what I will do is you graduate from a college I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges too. Anybody graduates from a college you go in there for two years or four years if you graduate or you get a doctorate degree from a college you should be able to stay in this country. That suggests not an end to immigration but a change in the composition. So maybe we would have more high skilled migrants enter the US and fewer low skilled migrants. Overall this would suggest some inflationary pressure on labor. Again you know that's a hard thing to say because if you have higher wages that could translate into a wage price spiral where you have let's say companies forced to raise their prices because they have to pay their workers and so you get into this inflationary spiral.

现在说到国内议程，我认为对特朗普来说，移民问题是比较突出的一个话题。这是一个他从几年前参选以来就非常关注的重大议题。显然，美国公众普遍不喜欢大规模的非法移民。广义上来说，许多西方国家对自己国家的移民政策也不满意。特朗普表示，他首先当然是想封锁边境，减少非法移民。我认为这将会实现，不过是否能把已经来到美国的数千万非法移民全部遣返就很难说了。当然，特朗普之前提到的优先事项是将有犯罪行为的非法移民驱逐出境。 他在“All In”播客中提到过一个政策，希望给予来美并从美国大学毕业的外国人工作权利，或者至少给予其中的一部分人。失去来自哈佛、麻省理工以及其他优秀学校的人才是很可惜的。我本来想推动这个政策，但后来我们必须优先解决新冠疫情的问题，你可能知道，这个问题一度占据了我们的主要精力。不过，我希望做的、并且我将要做的是，大学毕业生在获得毕业证书的同时能自动获得绿卡，可以留在这个国家。这项政策还包括两年制或四年制的初级学院，或任何取得博士学位的人都应该能留在美国。这个建议意味着移民不会停止，而是移民结构的变化。可能我们将接纳更多高技能的移民，而减少低技能移民的数量。总体来看，这可能会对劳动力市场造成一些通胀压力。这是一个棘手的问题，因为如果工资上涨，可能会导致工资价格螺旋上升的现象，公司被迫提高价格来支付员工工资，从而导致通胀螺旋。

Another possibility is simply that you have higher wages and companies simply have narrower profit margins so companies eat the cost and that's actually how what's happening in the European Union right now it's possible we could happen here it really depends on a competition policy whether or not we have a better enforcement of antitrust or if the market becomes just more competitive. So that is not clear either although I think broadly speaking the market thinks of Trump's policies as inflationary not just because of the labor fund but also because of fiscal spending through tax cuts. Now the Trump tax cuts that he enacted during his first term were said to expire next year. With Trump carrying Congress it's almost certainly to be renewed and Trump has mentioned that he would like to further cut corporate income taxes. Cutting taxes is not good for the deficit right so obviously it increases the supply of treasuries but also it's very similar to growth. You're essentially giving more money to the private sector. Private sector will spend that and so you're going to have more growth and inflation and so that's I think explains both the higher interest rates in part in large part actually because the market is pricing in a more hawkish Fed so we're going to have fewer rate cuts next year. So another big part of the Trump's domestic agenda is just deregulation and less regulation is in general considered to be more growth friendly and stock market likes that so we can see possibly more growth as well. So what else did we okay so that of course explains equity so all in all I think this is a very very positive picture for the economy so far and so that's why you have such a strong reaction in markets.

另一种可能性是，你的工资更高，而公司利润率更小，公司不得不承担这些成本。实际上，这就是欧盟目前的情况，这种情况在我们这里也有可能发生，这取决于竞争政策，尤其是是否更好地执行反垄断法或市场是否变得更具竞争力。这一点也不明确，不过我认为，总体而言，市场将特朗普的政策视为通胀因素，不仅仅因为劳动基金，还因为通过减税进行的财政支出。在特朗普的第一个任期内实施的减税政策被认为明年会到期。如果特朗普掌控国会，几乎肯定会重新实施，他也提到过希望进一步削减企业所得税。减税对赤字不利，因为它显然会增加国债供应，但同时也会促进增长，实际上就是向私营部门提供更多资金。私营部门会花费这些资金，从而带来更多的增长和通胀，而我认为这在很大程度上解释了较高的利率，因为市场预计美联储会采取更强硬的态度，所以明年减息的可能性较小。特朗普的另一个国内议程重点是放松管制，通常认为较少的监管对增长更为有利，股市对此持欢迎态度，因此我们可能看到更多的增长。所有这些因素导致了市场的强烈反应，所以总体来看，我认为这是一个非常积极的经济前景。

Now going forward I'm less clear if this would be sustained because when we were going about this huge transformations you have a lot of interest groups that you have to go through. People who benefit by how the world works right now may not like losing their special benefits and Trump is promising to be a disruptive candidate. You have for example RFK wanting to do big reform in how far enough for a student goes and run. You have Elon Musk wanting to cut the deficit to well reduce government spending maybe efficiencies by having fewer government workers to try to improve how this works so right now it's just foggy but so far the markets verdict is very powerful and as we get more clarity going forward we can think about what this actually means.

现在，我对未来能否持续保持这种状态不太清楚。因为在进行这些重大变革时，需要应对许多利益群体。目前从现行体制中受益的人可能不愿意失去他们的特殊利益，而特朗普承诺会成为一个具有破坏力的候选人。例如，RFK（罗伯特·肯尼迪）希望在学生的教育和参与范围上进行重大改革。埃隆·马斯克则希望通过减少政府开支，可能通过减少公务员数量来提高效率，以改善现状。当前，情况仍然不明朗，但目前市场的反应非常强烈。随着未来情况变得更加清晰，我们可以更好地思考这实际上意味着什么。

Now to reiterate though now that we've hit my S&P target I have and much much more cautious at the moment and I think that we may be in the process of carving out a multi-year top. Okay so that's all I prepared for today thanks so much for tuning in remember to like and subscribe and yeah check out my blog if you're interested in hearing more thoughts on markets. Talk to you all next week.

现在，我要重申一下，既然我们已经达到了我设定的标普目标，目前我变得非常非常谨慎。我认为我们可能正处于形成多年顶部的过程中。 好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容，非常感谢你的收看。记得点赞和订阅，如果你对更多市场见解感兴趣，可以查看我的博客。下周再见。