Markets Weekly September 21, 2024

Hello my friends, today is September 21st and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week we had the exciting 50 basis point cut from the Fed and the SMP500 making you all time highs. We talked a lot about things happening in the US, so today let's talk about three interesting things that are happening outside of the US. First, let's talk a little bit about the great rebalancing that's happening in China where the government is guiding the country away from things like real estate and finance towards industries like high-tech manufacturing. Secondly, let's talk a little bit about what's going on in Japan where the Bank of Japan met last week, didn't hike rates, but is still telling everyone that eventually they will. And lastly, let's talk a little bit about EM Central Banks who have traditionally followed the Fed but now seems to be dancing to their own tune.

你好，朋友们，今天是9月21日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。在过去的一周里，美国联邦储备局进行了激动人心的50个基点降息，标普500指数创下了历史新高。我们之前谈了很多美国发生的事情，所以今天我们来说说美国以外的三个有趣事件。 首先，我们聊聊中国正在进行的“大调整”。中国政府正引导国家从房地产和金融等领域转向高科技制造业。 其次，我们说说日本的情况。日本央行上周开会，虽然没有加息，但仍表示未来会加息。 最后，我们谈谈新兴市场国家的中央银行。它们传统上会跟随美联储的步伐，但现在似乎开始走出自己的节奏。 希望大家喜欢这些内容。

Alright, starting with China. So just looking at the Chinese economy based on market indicators, you can see that things don't seem to be doing very well. Looking at the Chinese stock market index, you can see that even as the SMP500 is making new all time highs, the stock index in China just doesn't look very good. And of course, the bond market there is sending concerning signals as it continues to make new lows. Now as we all know, over the past few decades, real estate has been a really big part of the Chinese economy.

好的，从中国开始。根据市场指标来看，中国经济似乎不太景气。看看中国的股票市场指数，即使标普500指数创下历史新高，中国的股票指数依然表现不佳。而且，那里的债券市场也发出了令人担忧的信号，继续创下新低。众所周知，在过去的几十年里，房地产一直是中国经济的重要组成部分。

Property developers have been building tremendous amounts of new buildings and bridges and roads and that's been boosting GDP and households also participated in the boom by buying a lot of condos and other real estate. And as prices went up, everything was doing well. Property developers continue to build new buildings and households continue to feel wealthier as their real estate holdings appreciated. But over the past couple years, things basically took a 180 and began to move in reverse.

房地产开发商一直在大量兴建新建筑、桥梁和道路，这推动了GDP增长。与此同时，家庭也参与了这一热潮，购买了大量公寓和其他房地产。随着房价上涨，一切看起来都很不错。房地产开发商继续建设新建筑，家庭也因为他们持有的房地产升值而感觉更富有。但在过去的几年里，情况发生了180度的转变，开始朝相反方向发展。

And as property prices declined, property developers stopped building, had trouble paying down their loans and households began to feel poor and began to retrench, trying to save money as their properties that they purchased began to move underwater. And that all and all this is having a pretty negative impact on the Chinese economy. And you can see through aggregate data, whereas the Chinese export sector continues to build and export domestically retail sales just haven't recovered since COVID and in part, that is because China did have much more stringent COVID lockdowns than other parts of the world.

当房价下跌时，房地产开发商停止了建设，难以偿还贷款，家庭开始感到贫困并开始节省开支，因为他们购买的房产价值开始低于贷款额度。这一切对中国经济产生了相当负面的影响。从总体数据可以看出，中国的出口部门持续增长并出口商品，但国内零售销售自疫情以来一直没有恢复，部分原因是中国的疫情封锁措施比世界其他地方更加严格。

Now, typically speaking, when your economy is in this situation, the fiscal authorities and the monetary authorities would do a lot of stimulus. And that's certainly what we saw in 2020 in the US. But President Xi wants to take a different path. He doesn't want to take a whole bunch of, you know, he doesn't want to open the spigot to do a whole bunch of fiscal spending. He thinks that's not the right way to go. Instead, he's taking the advantage of the situation to try to rebalance the Chinese economy away from things that he perceives to be less productive, like real estate, like finance, and towards high-tech manufacturing, specifically things like EVs, lithium batteries, and so forth.

通常来说，当经济陷入这种状况时，财政部门和货币部门会采取大量刺激措施。这确实是我们在2020年美国所看到的情况。但是，习近平主席希望走一条不同的道路。他不希望采取大量的财政支出措施。他认为这不是正确的方式。相反，他利用这种情况，尝试重新平衡中国经济，将其从他认为生产率较低的领域，如房地产和金融，转向高科技制造业，特别是电动汽车、锂电池等领域。

And if you are the president of China, you have a lot more power than other than other presidents because basically the Chinese government controls everything. And so you can see his fingerprints on a lot of the big moves that are happening right now. Now, just this past week, there is a long article in Bloomberg talking about how the big banks in China are cutting salaries in a big way, sometimes by as much as 40%, and just not hiring a lot of people. And it's making a lot of people in China very sad.

如果你是中国的主席，你会比其他国家的领导人拥有更多的权力，因为中国政府基本上掌控着一切。所以，你可以看到他在很多重大举措中留下的印记。就在上周，彭博社刊登了一篇长文，讲述了中国的大型银行正在大幅削减工资，有时削减幅度高达40%，并且几乎不再招聘新人。这使得很多中国人感到非常难过。

But from the government's perspective, that is basically moving towards rebalancing, discouraging people going to places like finance, and of course addressing income inequality, which they also perceive to be a very, very dangerous, politically unstable situation. And so you can see from the aggregate data, less and less interest in things like real estate, finance, and more and more towards things like high-tech energy and manufacturing. And this is also something that is filtering down to the school level where when a high-school student is applied for college, it's becoming more and more competitive to go into fields like energy and less and less competitive to go into fields like finance, as more people apply to the former and less people apply to the latter. So again, the government's fingerprints are here trying to direct everyone away from what they perceive to be, you know, unproductive industries and towards things that they perceive to be better industries.

但从政府的角度来看，这基本上是在朝着经济再平衡的方向努力，阻止人们涌向金融等领域，当然也在解决收入不平等问题，他们也认为这种不平等是一种非常危险的、政治上不稳定的情况。因此，从总体数据中可以看到，人们对房地产和金融等行业的兴趣越来越少，而对高科技能源和制造业等领域的兴趣越来越浓。这种趋势也影响到了学校层面，越来越多的高中学生在申请大学时，选择进入能源等领域变得越来越有竞争力，而选择金融等领域的竞争力则逐渐下降，因为申请前者的人越来越多，申请后者的人越来越少。因此，可以看出，政府的意图在于将大家从他们认为的非生产性行业引导到他们认为更好的行业。

And to be clear, China has had a lot of success in this high-tech manufacturing. Now, BYD, which is an electric vehicle manufacturer, is the largest in the world, and by all accounts, they produce vehicles that are both cheap and do a very good job. And that's kind of surprising. A few years ago, I don't think anyone would have heard of BYD, but today they really are the largest EV manufacturer in the world. And trying to export out, facing some political obstacles, of course they can't export to the US and are facing higher tariffs in the EU, but it is very much the success of foreign Chinese manufacturing.

需要明确的是，中国在高科技制造领域取得了很大成功。现在，比亚迪，这家电动车制造商，是世界上最大的电动车生产企业，而且据各种说法，他们生产的车辆不仅价格低廉，而且性能优良。这有点令人惊讶，几年前，可能没有人听说过比亚迪，但今天他们确实是全球最大的电动车制造商。当然，他们在出口方面遇到了一些政治障碍，无法出口到美国，在欧盟也面临更高的关税，但这确实显示了中国在外国制造业上的成功。

Now in addition to that, there's also another great rebalancing that's happening that I think is a bit more concerning. That is rebalancing away from the private sector towards the public sector. Now, looking at aggregate data, you can see that over the past few years, there have been fewer and fewer private companies in China and more and more public companies. So the public sector is growing in influence. And you can see that also by things you hear in the news, whereas the Chinese government is very openly cracking down on a lot more private enterprises. The few years ago, again, high profile person, Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, suddenly disappeared for some time, and then only to reappear later and just kind of never say anything again to the press.

现在，除了之前提到的转变之外，还有一个更令人担忧的重大再平衡正在发生。那就是从私营部门向公共部门的再平衡。现在，从整体数据来看，过去几年里，中国的私营企业越来越少，而公共企业越来越多。因此，公共部门的影响力正在增长。从新闻中也可以看到这种趋势，比如中国政府公开打击越来越多的私营企业。几年前，阿里巴巴创始人马云突然消失了一段时间，后来重新出现，但从那以后他基本上再也没有对媒体发表任何言论。

So there seems to be an atmosphere in China where private industry feels discouraged, and so there's just not as much initiative there. And you can see that in the overall VC startup sector in China as well, that used to be very vibrant as private industry was booming. A lot of money pouring in to fund all these startups. Now recently that's basically all dried up. So now, President Xi not just wants to change the direction of industry in China. He also wants it to be more state directed. Now, historically, that's not been a good choice simply because private enterprises have over time proven to be more efficient and more innovative. As someone who worked in the public and private sector, I can tell you it's really clear that if you work in a public sector backed place, well, you can't fail. Nothing you do matters.

看起来，中国的私营企业气氛有些低落，导致企业界的主动性减弱。可以看到，以前中国的风投创业领域曾经非常活跃，因为私营企业在蓬勃发展。大量资金涌入，支持各种初创企业。而最近，这些资金基本上都枯竭了。现任习近平主席不仅希望改变中国工业的方向，他还希望更多地由国家来主导。历史上来看，这往往不是一个好选择，因为私营企业随着时间的推移证明了自己更高效、更具创新力。作为曾在公共和私营部门工作过的人，我可以明确地告诉你，如果你在公共部门工作，你基本不会失败，不管你做什么都无关紧要。

So there's never any drive to innovate and to save money. Whereas if you work in the private sector, if you don't do well, you fail, you go bankrupt, you don't want that to happen. And so there's more of an incentive to work hard and do good work. So it seems like this direction, I think, is good to have more balance away from real estate. That's ultimately a Ponzi scheme, but longer term, you also need a vibrant private sector. So let's see how that turns out in the coming years.

所以，在这种情况下，就没有动力去创新和节省开支。相反，如果你在私营企业工作，如果表现不好，你会失败，甚至破产，这是谁都不想发生的事。因此，在私营部门，会有更多动力去努力工作并做好工作。所以，我觉得这种方向是好的，应该从房地产转向更平衡的发展。毕竟，房地产最终可能是一种庞氏骗局，但从长期来看，我们也需要一个充满活力的私营部门。让我们看看未来几年这一切会如何发展。

The second thing that I want to talk about is what's happening in Japan. Now, as we all know, even though the Fed and many other central banks in the West are cutting rates, Japan actually is thinking about hiking rates. And that narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan has been one of the drivers of the yen appreciation. Again, the yen touched, let's say, a bit above 160 USD JPY. And since then has appreciated significantly of this past week, the Bank of Japan met and the market perceived it to be a dovish surprise. And we saw the Japanese yen depreciate notably. Now, the Bank of Japan is still telling everyone that it wants the hike rates, but is kind of postponing that cycle.

我要谈论的第二件事是关于日本的情况。现在，正如我们都知道的那样，尽管美联储和西方许多其他中央银行都在降息，但日本实际上正在考虑加息。而美日之间利差的缩小是日元升值的因素之一。之前，日元兑美元汇率曾触及160美元以上，最近一周显著升值。然而，日本央行开会后，市场认为这是一个“鸽派”的意外，我们看到日元明显贬值。目前，日本央行仍然表示他们想要加息，但这个加息周期似乎被暂时推迟了。

Now, initially, before we had that big carry trade blow up in August, the Bank of Japan was forecasted by the markets to hike in October. Now the Bank of Japan clearly is not going to hike in October, and is signaling maybe that they'll hike later on December, sometime next year, or something like that. Now the Bank of the Governor's Wayda seems to be willing to wait a bit more because he sees the yen appreciating. Now with the yen far away from 160, he feels like he has a lot more breathing room. Now part of the reason he wanted to hike was because the yen was depreciating so much that it was both affecting import prices and it was having a significant negative impact on consumer sentiment.

现在，最初在8月份发生重大套利交易崩盘之前，市场预测日本银行将在10月加息。但现在显然，日本银行不会在10月加息，并且暗示可能会在12月晚些时候、明年某个时间或类似的时间加息。现在，因为行长植田（Wayda）看到日元升值，他似乎愿意再等待一段时间。现在日元远离160，他感觉有了更多的喘息空间。部分原因是他想要加息是因为日元贬值严重，既影响了进口价格，又对消费者信心产生了显著的负面影响。

So with the yen kind of more stable, at least not consistently depreciating, he feels more comfortable. But in order to understand why he continues to want to hike, it's useful to look at some of the data. Now, here's some interesting charts from the BOG board member Tamaya about why the bank wants to hike. Now first off, look at inflation in Japan. Now before the pandemic, it was obviously really low and sometimes negative. But since the pandemic, if you look at, no, there are a number of inflation metrics here. If you look at CPI less fresh food, it's still above 2% and maybe trending higher. Other indications seem to be trending lower, but overall, inflation is much higher post pandemic than pre pandemic and still seems to be above the 2% target. So if inflation is above your target, obviously you want hike rates.

所以，随着日元变得相对稳定，至少不再持续贬值，他感觉更踏实了。但是要理解他为什么继续想要加息，有必要看看一些数据。这里有一些来自日本央行董事会成员玉谷的有趣图表，解释了银行为什么想要加息。首先，看看日本的通胀情况。疫情之前，通胀显然非常低，有时候甚至是负的。但是自疫情以来，如果你看一些通胀指标，比如剔除生鲜食品的消费者价格指数（CPI），它仍然超过2%，而且可能有上升趋势。其他指标似乎在下降，但总体上，疫情后的通胀比疫情前高得多，而且似乎仍然超过2%的目标。所以如果通胀高于目标，显然你会想要加息。

Now comes a difficult question though. How much should you hike? Now this is ultimately a question of what is the neutral rate. However, the neutral rate is the rate where the bank is either slowing the economy down or boosting economic growth. It's basically a benchmark to know just how stimulative you are or how restrictive you are. Now Japan has been basically on zero just for a really long time, so they don't really know just what the neutral rate is. So they rely on economic models.

现在来了一个难题。你应该提高多少利率呢？这个问题的核心其实是中性利率是多少。然而，中性利率就是银行既不会减缓经济，也不会促进经济增长的那个利率。这基本上可以作为一个基准，来了解你是多么的刺激经济还是遏制经济。日本的利率基本上已经长期处于零水平，所以他们并不真正知道中性利率是多少。因此，他们依靠经济模型来进行判断。

Now to be clear, economic models like this are almost always nonsense. However, we have to look at this because policy makers in the Bank of Japan at least look at this with some reference. Now according to a number of neutral rate models, now the neutral rate could be anywhere between negative 1.5% real to a bit above zero real. So there's a wide range of possibilities of where the neutral rate is. But from the Bank of Japan's perspective, it kind of doesn't really matter where the neutral rate is because currently real rates in Japan are really negative and below even the lowest estimate of the neutral rate.

现在要说明的是，像这样的经济模型几乎总是无稽之谈。然而，我们仍需关注它们，因为至少日本央行的政策制定者会参考这些模型。根据一些中性利率模型，中性利率可能在-1.5%的实际利率到略高于0%的实际利率之间。因此，中性利率的可能范围很广。但从日本央行的角度来看，中性利率究竟在什么水平其实无关紧要，因为目前日本的实际利率非常负，甚至低于对中性利率的最低估计。

That means by any economic models measure, the Bank of Japan continues to have monetary policy to be very easy even as inflation is above 2%. So from that perspective, well, they got to do something because you can't be easy when that inflation is above 2%, right? That doesn't make any sense. So they continue to forecast hikes in the coming months. And so we could still see this interest rate differential within the US and Japan narrow.

这意味着根据任何经济模型的衡量，日本央行的货币政策仍然非常宽松，尽管通货膨胀率已经超过了2%。从这个角度来看，他们必须采取行动，因为当通胀率超过2%时，继续保持宽松政策是没有道理的。因此，他们预计在未来几个月会加息。所以我们可能会看到美日之间的利率差距缩小。

Now one other thing that I'd like to discuss is how this board member is making a pretty nuanced view of interest rates in his discussion. Now in the US, we don't really get that as much. It seems like interest rates up economic activity down, inflation down. But the SPOJ board member is making some interesting distinctions.

现在，我还想讨论另一件事，那就是这位董事会成员在谈论利率时表现出相当细致的观点。在美国，我们通常不会这么详细讨论这个问题。通常来说，利率上升，经济活动下降，通货膨胀下降。但这位SPOJ董事会成员做了一些有趣的区分。

First off, he notes that there are distributional impacts of interest rates, whereas people who save money would have higher income, whereas people who don't save most money and have to borrow who have to pay higher rates. And in Japan, looking at the data, it's very clear that older people have more savings. Younger people tend to have to borrow money. And so when you hike interest rates, you have a big distributional impact that it benefits older generations and it hurts younger generations. A couple other really interesting observations he makes is that higher interest rates can actually maybe improve productivity.

首先，他指出利率变化对不同人群影响不同。储蓄多的人会获得更高的收入，而不储蓄并且需要借钱的人则需要支付更高的利率。在日本，通过数据可以很清楚地看到，老年人有更多的储蓄，而年轻人往往需要借钱。因此，当你提高利率时，它会带来显著的分配性影响，惠及老年一代而对年轻一代不利。他还提出了一些有趣的观察，例如更高的利率可能实际上有助于提高生产力。

Because if you are a big and ginormous corporation, you have access to the capital markets and when interest rates are low, you can just kind of borrow and keep borrowing and roll over debt forever. And even if you do a terrible job, you will never go bankrupt. You basically become a zombie, just kind of not quite dead. You can die, can't go bankrupt because you can always roll over your debt through low interest rates.

因为如果你是一家大型的巨无霸公司，你可以进入资本市场。当利率很低时，你就可以不停地借贷，甚至一直续借债务。即使你经营得很糟糕，你也不会破产。你基本上变成了一家“僵尸”公司，只是不完全死亡。虽然你可能破产，但只要利率低，你就可以一直续借债务，不会真正破产。

But because you are just not very good at your industry, you can't really grow either. This policy maker notes that when you have higher interest rates, these companies, they kind of have to work harder. Otherwise, they can't meet their interest rate payments. So in a sense, it's putting pressure on them to innovate, to be more efficient, to become more productive and improving productivity is ultimately essential to having growth. So higher interest rates have some benefit there as well. And the last observation, which is very, very relevant to Japan that he makes and only been passing is that higher interest rates have an impact on the fiscal situation.

但是因为你在这个行业表现不佳，你也无法真正成长。这位政策制定者指出，当利率提高时，这些公司不得不更加努力工作。否则，他们无法支付利息。因此，这在某种程度上迫使他们进行创新，提高效率，提升生产力。而提高生产力对实现增长是至关重要的。所以，提高利率在这方面也有一定的好处。他最后的一个观察非常适用于日本，那就是高利率对财政状况有影响。

Now when you're Japan, you have the highest debt to GDP in the entire world. So if you hike interest rates a little bit, your interest rate expense, your interest expense is going to go up a lot. We talk about how in the US interest expense is over a trillion, it's a lot, it's not sustainable. Well, in Japan, debt is even higher. So if they hike too much, that interest rate expense can really, really explode. And that could be a big political issue. All right.

现在，如果你是日本，你的债务与GDP的比率是全世界最高的。所以，如果你稍微提高利率，你的利息开支就会大幅增加。我们常说，美国的利息开支已经超过一万亿美元，这是一个很大的数额，是不可持续的。在日本，债务甚至更高。所以，如果他们利率提高过多，利息开支可能会急剧上升。这可能会成为一个重大的政治问题。

The last thing that I want to talk about is this really interesting phenomenon where emerging market central banks have historically followed the Fed closely, but this time they're doing their own thing. Now as we all know, the dollar is the world's reserve currency. And so if you are a emerging market or smaller country, you really have to pay close attention to what the Fed does. Otherwise your currency is going to get whacked. And that's a big problem because if you are a small country, well, you know, you're importing a lot of stuff that's denominated in dollars, say oil or other commodities. And very likely you're exporting a lot of stuff that's denominated in dollars as well. So if you have big fluctuations in your exchange rate, well, maybe your import prices get too big and that impacts some sectors.

我最后想谈的是一个非常有趣的现象，历史上新兴市场的央行通常会紧跟美联储的脚步，但这次他们有了自己的做法。众所周知，美元是世界储备货币。所以，如果你是一个新兴市场国家或较小的国家，你就必须密切关注美联储的动向。否则你的货币会大幅贬值。这是个大问题，因为如果你是一个小国，你可能会进口大量以美元计价的商品，比如石油或其他大宗商品。同样，你也很可能出口大量以美元计价的商品。因此，如果汇率发生大幅波动，进口价格可能会猛涨，进而影响到一些行业。

Or maybe if your currency becomes too expensive, maybe that impacts the competitiveness of export industries. So usually what you want to do is you want to adjust your interest rates along with the Fed such that your currency is not too volatile. You have a floating rate currency, but you want to make sure that it doesn't move too much against the dollar, which is of course the world's reserve currency. And of course, if you are in emerging market, oftentimes your capital markets are pretty fragile.

或者，如果你的货币变得过于昂贵，这可能会影响出口行业的竞争力。因此，通常你需要做的是根据美联储的利率调整你的利率，以确保你的货币不会过于波动。虽然你有浮动汇率，但你希望它相对美元的波动不要太大，因为美元是全球储备货币。当然，如果你是处于新兴市场，往往你的资本市场也比较脆弱。

If you have too big of an interest rate differential, you could have a lot of people move money out of your country into the US and that could of course be very destabilizing. Basically big sell-offs in your domestic capital markets. So if you look at this chart from Bloomberg, you'll notice that pre-pandemic, Fed hikes, emerging market hikes, Fed cuts, emerging market cuts as well. You got to keep that interest rate differential within some bounds. Otherwise, you know, it's going to be destabilizing for their currency and for their financial markets.

如果利率差异过大，许多人可能会把资金从你的国家转移到美国，这当然会非常不稳定。基本上，这会导致你国内资本市场的重大抛售。所以，如果你看这个来自彭博社的图表，你会注意到在疫情前，美联储加息，新兴市场也加息；美联储降息，新兴市场也跟着降息。你必须将利率差异保持在一定范围内。否则，这会对他们的货币和金融市场造成不稳定。

But since the pandemic though, there's been a change. Now we noticed during the pandemic, Fed kept interest rates really, really low and then began to hike. One interesting thing we saw during the pandemic was that the emerging market central banks hiked before the Fed. And so they seem to be hiking in anticipation of inflation, which is something that they are much more familiar with than the US.

但是，自从疫情以来，情况发生了变化。我们注意到，在疫情期间，美联储把利率保持在非常低的水平，然后开始上调。一个有趣的现象是，新兴市场的央行在美联储之前就开始加息。似乎他们是在预见通胀的情况下采取行动，对通胀的应对，他们比美国更有经验。

Now more recently, as the Fed is cutting, we actually see some interesting divergence where the Fed, whereas the Fed cuts, some emerging markets are actually hiking. Again emerging markets cover a lot of banks. So in this chart, there's a wide range of emerging markets. You can just focus on the median or you can focus on the range. But it's very clear that something has changed over the past few years, whereas emerging markets are becoming more and more able to stand up on their own and do their own thing less captive to what the Fed does.

最近，当美联储降息时，我们实际上看到一些有趣的分歧。一方面，美联储在降息，而另一方面，一些新兴市场却在加息。新兴市场囊括了很多国家，所以在这张图表中，你可以只关注中位数，也可以关注整个范围。不过，很明显在过去几年里发生了一些变化，新兴市场变得越来越能独立自主，它们不再完全依赖美联储的动作。

Now there's a couple of reasons, potential reasons for this. One is that, well, the emerging markets are just dealing with different things right now. So for example, even as inflation is very low in the US, in Brazil, it's heating up. And so you have the Brazilian central bank, hike rates the same day that the Fed cut rates. So you have some idiosyncratic things that are going on there. And secondly, another potential change is that as time goes on, emerging markets are having more stable domestic capital markets. So they're maybe less impacted by what happens in abroad, maybe less reliant on foreign investors.

现在有几种可能的原因。一个原因是，新兴市场正在处理不同的问题。例如，即使美国的通货膨胀率很低，巴西的通货膨胀却在上升。因此，在美联储降息的同一天，巴西中央银行加息。这是一种特定于当地的情况。其次，另一个可能的变化是，随着时间的推移，新兴市场的国内资本市场变得更加稳定。因此，它们可能受海外影响较小，可能对外国投资者的依赖也减少了。

So as they have a more stable set of domestic investors that really want to hold domestic currency investments, maybe they don't need to be as beholden to what the Fed does. Some interesting diversions is happening here. And maybe it is one more step away from dollar dominance that we've been accustomed to over the past few decades. Certainly what we see, we see some developments political and so forth, but again, very early, but something interesting to keep in mind.

因此，由于他们拥有一批更加稳定的国内投资者，这些投资者确实希望持有本国货币的投资，也许他们不必像以前那样依赖美联储的决策。这里确实出现了一些有趣的变化。这或许是我们习惯了的美元主导地位的又一次逐步远离。显然，我们看到一些政治上的发展等等，但这仍然处于非常早期的阶段，不过确实值得关注。

All right. So that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. And as usual, if you're interested in my latest thoughts, check out my blog at FedGuy.com interested in online courses learning about macro markets, check out my courses at centralbanking101.com. And also welcome to check out monetarymacro.com. All right. See you guys next time.

好的。这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收听。像往常一样，如果你对我的最新想法感兴趣，请访问我的博客 FedGuy.com。如果你对学习宏观市场的在线课程感兴趣，请访问 centralbanking101.com。同时也欢迎访问 monetarymacro.com。好的，下次再见。