Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patrons, Brian B, Eddie W, Marshballs, and Michael H. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Apologies for the later upload today. We had a contractor at our house working on some stuff right outside the office, making some noise. So I had to delay the recording.
A quick update from yesterday in the comments of that video, one of you said that I should divide by 30.4 instead of 30 for converting the days to months, since technically that's more precise. So I did go ahead and make that change. Thank you for the suggestion. And it did change the gigawatt hour per year run rate currently to 17.2 instead of 16.9. So the next time we come back to this, I just didn't want anybody to be thrown off.
Here's an example of where we need to be aware of certain studies. This one was conducted by Geotab, which is a Canadian based company that analyzes telematics data from EVs. Their conclusion? Batteries in the latest EV models will comfortably outlast the usable life of the vehicle and will likely not need to be replaced. After looking at the battery health of almost 5000 fleet and private EVs representing around 1.5 million days of telematics data, Geotab found the average annual degradation rate of modern EV batteries is 1.8%.
That's 22% better than five years ago and more comforting the top performing vehicles have a battery degradation rate of just 1% per year. Now if we stopped right there, I wouldn't really have any concerns. But here's where they lose me. They said a 1.8% annual degradation rate means that in 20 years, the battery of an EV would theoretically still have 64% life in it. AKA, if you buy a Tesla new with 320 miles of range after 20 years, it would be left with about 205 miles based on their study.
Which I think is a bit ridiculous because it fails to take into consideration how batteries actually work and that most of that degradation actually happens in the first 5 to 10 years. Don't take my word for it, look at the data, this first chart is actually from Tesla and their impact report last year. You can see in the first 50,000 miles, a majority of that battery degradation takes place. But in this case for the Model 3 and why, it still sits above around 90% of the original range. It'd be fair to say there's roughly a 10% loss in the first 50,000 miles and then over the next 150,000 miles, you still don't even have an additional 10% loss.
Translation, the degradation is front loaded and then trails off from there. Now if you say oh that's data from Tesla, we can't really trust it. One I would disagree with that premise but two, here's a chart from third party data. This scatter plot is sourced from real world customer data for Tesla Model SNX. Once again, we see the same thing, a majority of the battery degradation happens in the first 50,000 kilometers, which is about 31,000 miles. And then going all the way out to 250,000 kilometers, which is 155,000 miles, you still have a battery capacity above 90% of the original.
So this idea, you can take the annual degradation in the first few years of the battery pack and extrapolate that over the life of the vehicle is just not born out in the data, at least not for Tesla specifically, which is the example they gave. However, if there's a takeaway to be had from this study, I think it would be that the degradation rate in the early years of these battery packs is indeed continuing to improve.
Dan Priestley gave his Tesla semi presentation at the IAA event in Germany and here are the main takeaways. He shared that the standard range semi, which is 310 miles, is under 19,841 pounds, whereas the long range variant that goes 497 miles is under 23,148 pounds. He said there are no weight exemptions included in those numbers, and more importantly, there are further levers for Tesla to pull to reduce the weight even further. He said the Tesla semi will be street legal in Europe, even as it is now, and it will also be compatible with European trailers.
Dan said Tesla will bring other things along in the future to showcase quote multiple variants to serve a wide variety of customers in Europe. We will circle back to that momentarily. He highlighted Tesla deploying megawatt level charging in the field and that it's safe and that Tesla has already driven more than 1,700 kilometers or 1,056 miles in just 24 hours with one Tesla semi. And the Tesla semi fleet in total has driven more than 7.5 million kilometers or 4.6 million miles.
There's one Tesla semi in the fleet that's been in operation for less than 18 months and it's already driven more than 400,000 kilometers or 248,000 miles. And those have all been done at the North American gross vehicle weight limits, which is another way of saying fully loaded. But we know that European market has its fair share of grades as well. And Brenner, which we plan to demonstrate at some point, is definitely notable. Why are we confident that the semi is going to work in these applications as well as others? Because this is the grade that we do every day multiple times a day. This is Donner Pass in California. It's a great proving ground. You've got different traffic types, different weather conditions, different grade pitches along the way. It's a grueling, wonderful, Goldilocks route where we get to really stress the truck in a variety of applications.
He also gave us an update on the efficiency of the semi and he said that the EV industry average is starting to approach 100 kilowatt hours of energy to travel 100 kilometers, which is about 62 miles. But the Tesla semi has already hit that metric of 100 kilowatt hours per 100 kilometers. More importantly though, and he did not actually call this out in the presentation, but if you compare that to the 2024 baseline for diesel, that equivalent would be 235 kilowatt hours per 100 kilometers. Another way to frame that is that the Tesla semi in its current iteration is more than two times as efficient as the 2024 baseline for a diesel truck. He actually complimented the diesel industry highlighting the improvements they've made over the years, but he said it still can't compete with a step change that electric powertrains offer. And of course, he said that this number for Tesla will continue to get better
Tesla's current semi fleet has an uptime of 95%, which does include both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance and repairs. The key to key time, which is really just the time for Tesla to get a truck back on the road is currently less than 24 hours in 70% of the cases for the current fleet. He said that service for Tesla semis in the EU could be through Tesla directly or through working with verified third parties. There will be some new Tesla semi customers to be announced later this year and Tesla still plans to scale production throughout 2026. And then Dan said that Europe will be the next market after North America. So this part is just my speculation, but realistically, I'm guessing probably not until 2027 at best, and it'll likely be closer to 2028 before we see the Tesla semi actually sold across Europe. Things can definitely change, but earlier this year Elon did say I think it makes sense to produce the semi truck in Europe at Gigabrelin. But after this presentation and some reporting from yawn at the EV universe, it seems like the truck really won't need as much modification as some people were expecting to enter the European market, which means eventually if Tesla wanted to, it seems like they could actually export some semis from Giganovata to the European market. Long term, I'd imagine they will of course localize their production of the Tesla semi across the EU, but for Tesla to at least have the option to send some semis from Giganovata to the EU without needing major modifications is definitely a win.
Yawn got a test ride in the semi and he said the team only would have to make some minor changes to details like wheel covers for the European market. The semi driver said Tesla developed an independent front suspension and he called this version of the semi the European development platform. Maybe most importantly yawn said the driver also confirmed they have the space saved with a metal frame behind the cab for the sleeper version. And I said maybe most importantly because if you look at this chart which includes global data for the class 8 truck market, you can see that 72% of the revenue last year actually came from sleeper cab variants. So Tesla getting a sleeper cab version to the market is clearly very important for the long term. We will do a sleeper cab where we can send drivers out for multiple days at a time as we expand the charging network. Thus all indications are still pointing toward Tesla bringing that version to the market eventually.
Yawn also said after his ride that the visibility is great. It's very smooth and the turning radius is similar to a model Y. This was cool. Yawn highlighted the Tesla semi storage compartments on both sides are actually pretty spacious and they pop wide open when pushing a button on the touchscreen. And as you may expect the competition was at this event with a tape measure eyeing up the Tesla semi trying to learn whatever they can sharing the miles driven by the Tesla semi fleet. Elon said not bad for something some people said was impossible. In this video from Dan I'd play it for you but there's annoying background music he said that they'll continue to adapt to the platform for niche applications in certain areas across the EU. The Tesla semi represents an enormous opportunity not just for Tesla as a business but also for the world on the path towards full electrification. I know some people are feeling impatient when it comes to the Tesla semi but one thing we can be confident of is that Tesla is not standing still and not doing anything. They're going to have so many learnings from this time period before they enter high volume production.
Germany's economic minister said we want to avoid a trade conflict with spiraling tariffs that ultimately harms both sides at all costs. It's important to me to make clear that Germany is not shying away from competition with China. On the contrary, we embrace competition but it must be on fair terms. It feels like a heavier cake and eat it too scenario. I mean Germany really can't expect to slap China with upwards of 40% tariffs on Chinese EVs and not expect China to fight back. The tariffs don't come directly from Germany but in the first vote for these matters they actually abstained which is implicitly supporting the tariffs. Drive Tesla Canada shared some cool images of the 100th supercharger in Australia and Tesla did something special to commemorate it. It's finished in green in gold which are Australia's national colors and this one is located in Glenel. The site is expected to be open this week. In case you're in New Jersey there's now an additional $2,000 available if you qualify for purchasing an EV meaning you can now get over $4,000 in savings. If you're wondering why sometimes I share these state level incentives it's because over the years I've had a few of you reach out to me telling me that it actually saved you thousands of dollars because you didn't know it existed.
德国经济部长表示,我们希望避免一场关税螺旋上升、最终损害双方利益的贸易冲突。不惜一切代价。我想明确一点,德国并不惧怕与中国的竞争。相反,我们欢迎竞争,但必须在公平的基础上。现在感觉有点像“既想要蛋糕,又想吃掉蛋糕”的情形。我是说,德国真的不能指望对中国电动车征收高达40%的关税,却不期望中国会回击。这些关税并非直接来自德国,但在初次投票中,他们其实是弃权的,这实际上等同于支持关税。
Drive Tesla Canada 分享了一些在澳大利亚安装的第100个超级充电站的酷炫图片。为了纪念这一时刻,特斯拉做了一些特别设计,这个充电站采用了澳大利亚的国色——绿色和金色,位于Glenel。预计这个站点将在本周开放。
如果你在新泽西州,购买电动车现在可以再获得2000美元的额外补贴,这意味着总共可以享受超过4000美元的优惠。我之所以分享这些州级别的激励措施,是因为多年来我有一些读者告诉我这些信息真的帮他们节省了数千美元,因为他们之前不知道有这些优惠。
Tesla has a new schedule to drive page up on the website where you can actually book a test drive and they're touting FSD. And you can do a self-serve test drive where there's no Tesla staff on site and they give you the explanation of how that works. This chart was going around today and I think there's two good reminders for this one as a long-term investor that over time no matter what's going on in the world at least to date the market has found a way to continually climb higher. Just a good reminder that over the past 50 years there's almost always some level of uncertainty in the world. But we also have to keep in mind there have been times like from 2000 to 2009 which we could call a lost decade where over that time there was effectively zero market appreciation and there was a similar situation from 2008 to about 2014. I think this one's a bit too granular to get into for this video but I'll have this article below if you want to see some of the new features with iOS 17 and what you can do with shortcuts and the Tesla app.
The IIHS did a new study highlighting Tesla's autopilot and one from Volvo. The main takeaway is that drivers quickly learn to skirt the limits set by these automated driving systems. The president said if you train these people to think that paying attention means nudging the steering wheel every few seconds then that's exactly what they'll do. Effectively going back to whatever distracted driving behavior they're engaging in. Their main takeaway was the longer participants use these partially automated systems the more complacent they become with them because they understand how they work. In total volunteers drove a little more than 12,000 miles with autopilot engaged. When it comes to the nag most warnings did not proceed beyond the initial attention reminder and on average the drivers responded to the alert within about three seconds. There was however 72 times out of the 3,858 times the nag went off where the driver did not respond fast enough to prevent the alerts from escalating. 16 of those escalations 12 of them from one driver and four from three others persisted through the entire sequence to result in the driver being locked ultimately they're saying the safety impact of these systems is tough to gauge. The results show escalating reminders are very effective in getting drivers to change their behavior but better safe guards are needed to ensure the behavior change actually translates to more attentive driving.
Bernstein is predicting that plug-in hybrids will capture a growing share of the car market until 2030 but sales will then stabilize and eventually decline as full beevs take over. Hybrids are winning now but beevs will win eventually. Then a consulting firm added that car makers current obsession with hybrids will prove shortsighted. Those that lose focus on electrification could soon fall behind. I think what he meant to say was that they'll fall even further behind. About 13 years ago Mercedes entered into a partnership with BYD of which they split 50-50. Back in 2021 though Mercedes started waving the white flag slowly moving out of the Chinese market as they dropped their holding to 10%. Fast forward to now and Mercedes is giving up the remaining 10% of that partnership as BYD has taken full control.
I missed this one last week. Uber had said that it's expanding its partnership with Waymo for rides in Austin and Atlanta beginning early 2025. But this expansion for Waymo will only be available through Uber's app. So no more direct booking through Waymo like it is in LA and San Francisco. Uber and Waymo already have a partnership in Phoenix as well where they do offer Uber Eats deliveries but at first they're not going to offer that service in Austin or Atlanta but they might in the future. It's a no-brainer for Uber they need as many bets on autonomy as they can have. Waymo on the other hand you wonder if they're now realizing the need to maybe tap into a greater market demand. In fairness though Uber did say this time they're going to provide fleet management services like vehicle cleaning, repair and other depot operations services it did not offer before. This will mark five cities for Waymo and it'll be interesting to see their strategy going forward if they're just testing the waters with Uber or if that's going to be a much bigger part of their business model into the future.
My guess is they'll test the waters with Uber for a year or so in these new cities and then decide if it's better to go out of the alone or in partnership with Uber. Elon shared a picture of Gigatexus showing the new Tesla flag, the Texas flag and the American flag. Love that clearly visible from the highway. Lotus shared a new video of its theory one but unfortunately this is just a concept they have no plans to put this into production but they're saying we may be able to get an idea of their upcoming design language and if that's any indication, color me quite excited. Not that buying a Lotus is anything I plan to do anytime soon but I think this design is incredible.
Tesla stock closed the day at $227.87 up.48% while the NASDAQ was up. 2%. It was a normal volume day trading about 7 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days and listen we can all say whatever we want about Elon all humans are flawed to some degree but this guy is literally on the brink of giving sight to the blind. If there was ever a time to use the phrase mind blowing I think what they're doing at Neuralink would warrant it. Again apologies for the late rushed video today but it was a busy day for the Loomis household. Hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.