Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my updated patron, Leo S. Thank you for continuing to support the channel. Thanks to the US presidential debate tonight, I will be aiming for more brevity than usual to be mindful of everybody's time. On Tesla's IR page, they've made it official. The Robotax event will be in Los Angeles. You can now sign up for a chance to attend the event on October 10th. It's a random drawing and all entries must be received by September 17th. Invitations are non-transferable, and to enter, you'll have to verify you own shares as of July 31st this year. Travis Axelrod, who works at IR at Tesla, said each share that you own will be an entry into the random drawing. The results will be announced the week of September 23rd, and they said space is extremely limited. To everyone hoping to attend, from yesterday, I wanted to clarify on the 4680 report, the Panasonic plant in Kansas right now is only 2170 production, but there have been reports that eventually they plan to expand for 4680 production. Nikkei has reported that this new investment Panasonic is considering for the Kansas factory could be roughly the size of Panasonic's current DeSoto plant, or around $4 billion. And that the additional capacity is to be used for the production of 4680 cylindrical cells. We're hoping to hear an official decision from Panasonic by the end of this year.
欢迎来到Electrified频道,我是你们的主持人Dylan Loomis。首先感谢我的新晋支持者Leo S. 感谢你继续支持我们的频道。由于今晚有美国总统辩论,我会尽量简短一些,以节省大家的时间。
在特斯拉的投资者关系页面,他们已经正式宣布了机器人出租车活动将在洛杉矶举行。你现在可以报名,争取参加10月10日的活动。报名采用随机抽签,所有报名必须在9月17日前提交。请注意,邀请不可转让。要报名,你必须验证自己在今年7月31日之前已持有特斯拉股票。特斯拉投资者关系部门的Travis Axelrod表示,你每持有一股股票就相当于获得一次抽签机会。结果将于9月23日那一周宣布,他们表示名额非常有限。
对于希望参加活动的朋友们,从昨天开始,我想澄清一下关于4680报告的内容,当前位于堪萨斯的松下工厂目前只生产2170电池,但有报道称他们计划最终扩展到生产4680电池。Nikkei报道,这笔松下考虑用于堪萨斯工厂的新投资,规模可能与目前的DeSoto工厂相当,大约为40亿美元。而新增的产能将用于生产4680圆柱形电池。我们希望能在今年年底前听到松下的正式决定。
Honestly, though, US-made 2170s should mean great things for Tesla vehicles qualifying for tax credits into the future. If they're still around in the future. Ark Invest put this out today talking about Tesla's new AI roadmap. Tasha said Elon suggested in June the time between interventions was approaching one year's worth of driving, which on average would be equivalent to every 12,000 miles. Again, though, as I've been saying, where this data is actually coming from is anybody's guess. Ark is estimating for Tesla to compete with Uber or Waymo, Tesla would need only 10,000 cars to offer similar levels of service in a US city, suggesting CapEx of $250 million or about $25,000 per car. Obviously, I think the actual number of cars Tesla would need would be very dependent on what that city is, but that's what Ark is saying. We're now exactly 30 days away from the event.
The EU has made another round of small downward revisions for the new tariffs for EVs from China. Last time, they said Tesla's rate would be 9%, but they're dropping that again down to 7.8%. It may not be major, but on every $40,000 car, that extra 1.2% is going to save somebody $480 per car. I say somebody because it will be up to Tesla to ultimately determine what level of these additional costs they'll be paying for will flow through to the end consumer. The new highest rate for Chinese producers is now 35.3% down 1% from before. These rates still are not set in stone, they could continue to be adjusted as discussions between the EU and relevant parties continue. Elon sat down with the besties at the All-In Summit and he did have a few comments Tesla related. It's a Tesla designed AI inference computer, which by the way, still the best.
There isn't a better thing we could buy from suppliers. So the Tesla designed AI inference computer that's in the cars is better than anything we could buy from any supplier. By the way, that's one talking point I rarely see people on Wall Street mention every time they talk about Tesla competitors moving to these end to end large training models. None of them are really saying what these competitors are going to use for the inference part of that equation. You can't get AI for off the shelf. You know, there's this training inference and we do have those two projects at Tesla. We've got Dojo, which is the training computer and then our inference chip, which is in every car inference computer. And Dojo, we've only had Dojo 1. Dojo 2 is we should have Dojo 2 in volume towards the end of next year. And that will be, we think, sort of comparable to sort of a B200 type type system, a training system. So I guess there's some potential for that to be used as a service. I guess I have some improved confidence in Dojo, but I think we won't really know how good Dojo is until probably version three. It usually takes three major iterations on a technology for it to be excellent. And we'll only have the second major iteration next year.
The third iteration, I don't know, maybe late, you know, 26 or something like that. So, so optimist, obviously, is humanoid robot. It is way as much less than it's much smaller than a car. So the, you could expect that in high volume, and I'd say that you also probably need three production versions of optimists and then you need scale production to sort of the million unit plus per year level. I think at that point, you know, the labor and materials on optimists is probably not much more than $10,000. Optimists will cost less than a small car at scale volume with three major iterations of technology. And so if a small car, you know, costs $25,000, you know, it's probably like a $20,000 for an optimist. I would say major iterations are less than two years. So it's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million years a year.
He did have some other Tesla commentary in the chat, but it's largely things that we've heard many times before. When it comes to Dojo as a service for third party training, I would not expect anything like that from Tesla until 2028 at the earliest. As Elon said, in a sense, they're really just working to ramp up to the third iteration of Dojo, which may be coming late 2026, but most likely sometime in 2027 or 28. However, by far, my biggest takeaway from those clips was that Elon said he has improved confidence when it comes to Dojo. The last few months publicly, Elon has been pouring a bit of cold water on the Dojo narrative, so this was a nice change of pace.
The weekly Tesla China number came in at 16,200 comparing that to the same week in quarter two, that number was 12,000. Thus quarter over quarter, Tesla China domestically is now up 25.2%. Comparing this weekly number two quarter three of last year, that number was 10,700. So year over year, Tesla China domestically is now up 15.5%. For this metric to hit a new quarterly record over the last three weeks of the quarter, they would need to average just over 14,500 per week. With the incentives currently available in the Chinese market, that is squarely in play. That's another great reading for Tesla China for the week, and just a fun fact, I found the breakdown for Model 3 and why this week it was 6400 for the new Model 3, which is the second best week ever since they started delivering the refreshed Model 3.
This one may be more for me, but as a Florida guy at heart, the flagship Tesla location in Sarasota has just opened December 3rd of last year, I was able to grab this quick video of the location as it was under construction. This is right by the UTC shopping center, which Ashley and I are big fans of at the event they had cyber quad rides. They had cyber trucks with pretty cool wraps. There was a DJ set up in the vault of a cyber truck powering his equipment with the cyber truck, and they did have a food truck there as well. But this is a very high traffic area. So pretty excited about this new flagship store.
Kia is now coming directly after Tesla. According to a bulletin that Kia sent to dealers on September 5th, they're now specifically targeting Tesla owners with a new conquest cash incentive. The program only goes to the end of this month, so they may just be testing the waters, but the cash incentive is either $1,000 or $1,500 depending on the Kia you choose. It's a national incentive, and it can be combined with other Kia offers like their $7,500 customer cash deal and their 0% financing on the EV9. I'm not sure if $1,500 will be enough to move the needle for many Tesla owners. Elon did say on X, here's the rub, Tesla never has to bribe Kia drivers to buy a Tesla. From that perspective, it does feel like maybe Kia should target the ICE models rather than going after the other EV models.
On X, Brandon shared a new video of a software update showing that not just the cyber truck but some other Tesla vehicles will now have these lines of where your tires are about to go. You can see these gray path shadows that adjust as your wheel trajectory changes. This should be available with .27.5 or .32. I would imagine this may eventually roll out to the entire fleet, but for now they're noting this is in the cyber truck, the Model Y and the 3.
Deutsche Bank has a new Tesla stock analyst Edison Yu who has launched coverage with a buy rating in a $295 price target. The average analyst price target for Tesla stock is $218 and the highest on the street is Adam Jonas at 310. Edison said this is not just an automaker but rather a technology platform attempting to reshape multiple industries deserving of a unique type of valuation framework. Tesla is in a league of its own and represents our highest conviction secular leader poised to reshape multiple industries. That sounds great but Edison's tip ranks rating is not so hot. Honestly I really don't weigh these tip ranks weighting super heavily but I always do like to at least have a glance. Just FYI Deutsche Bank did have coverage on Tesla before but Emmanuel Rosner the prior Deutsche analyst has left to go to wolf research. Thus Edison Yu is just stepping into Emmanuel shoes with a much more bullish take than Rosner had.
Holmars shared some screenshots showing that Uber is now using the Tesla API to send destinations to the Tesla navigation. For Uber drivers who use a Tesla ordinarily they book their trips in the mobile app on their phone and they would have to type in the destination in the Tesla UI and the nav manually. But now the Uber app will be directly linked to the Tesla UI sending that navigation data so the Uber driver doesn't have to do anything. This is all made possible because late last year we learned that Tesla was finally opening up its fleet API allowing for third parties to plug directly into the Tesla system. Not only will the navigation routes auto populate but Uber drivers can make the rides share app aware of their current battery range in order to only send trip requests within that range. When you connect the Uber app to your Tesla you can enable battery aware matching so you'll only see trip requests within your Tesla's battery range. However this specific integration may be made possible by Smartcar which develops APIs for automakers. In 2015 Smartcar emerged as the first company to give developers a seamless and scalable way to integrate their apps with Tesla vehicles. And they've been developing this ever since. But here's why I think this is the case last year Smartcar and Uber announced a partnership of their own. With Smartcar's connected car platform eligible EV drivers on Uber can ensure their only assigned rides within their remaining battery range. As we've been saying this past year, deeper ties between Tesla and Uber seem like a foregone conclusion. This is yet another step in that direction on top of many other steps we've been talking about over the past year.
Full disclosure, some people are saying this won't actually be available until later this year but it's coming. Lucid just held its tech and manufacturing day and they announced through August this year the company has already delivered more cars in 2024 than in all of 2023. But in 2023 they only delivered 6000 cars. They highlighted their next generation drive unit dubbed Atlas which is in development and undergoing testing. The drive unit is destined for the company's upcoming midsize platform. Lucid said the upcoming Gravity SUV will be equipped with a Nax charging connector in 2025. It's still scheduled for production later this year. They shared this teaser image of their upcoming midsized platform that's set to go into production late 2026 and have a starting price under $50,000.
Importantly, the Nax port on the Gravity will be on the rear of the driver side of the vehicle. AKA same location as a Tesla. Rawlinson also poured cold water on any pickup from Lucid. He said, I really think it's very tough to make an electric pickup truck work today. Not one that's usable and cost effective. Why? Pickup trucks are big and heavy, their owners demand the ability to tow things, an activity that deals a major blow to EV range, pickups, electric or otherwise aren't exactly known for their efficiency. All of this necessitates huge battery packs that drive up costs to consumers. That's at odds with Lucid's driving philosophy, which is a deep focus on getting the most miles out of the smallest battery pack possible.
He continued, if you want a 300 mile range pickup, which is not enough because the things got to tow, you're already into a pack size of 120 kilowatt hours. I think the minimum threshold for a usable pickup is probably 150 kilowatt hours. Remember the cyber truck is 123. Peter added, this is why I'm very reluctant. I don't want Lucid to start thinking about a pickup truck. For a Lucid pickup to be realistic, he said it'll need a profound improvement in gravimetric energy density of cell chemistry. This image we saw a while back of a potential Lucid pickup, at least for now, can be taken off the table.
I'm not sure Peter's arguments check out, but I actually agree with him in that I don't think Lucid has any business trying to develop a pickup truck anytime soon. It doesn't seem to fit with their company ethos, and they really do need to focus on the gravity and making that a successful launch, and then they have the midsize platform after that. Some Lucid trademark filings suggest the name for this upcoming midsize vehicle may be Earth. It's not a guarantee, but right now the expectation is this high volume model will be built at their new factory in Saudi Arabia. If you'd like to nerd out on their slide deck from the event today, I'll have this linked
West's a cyber truck engineer said battery armor and rock sliders will be available as a retrofit option by the end of this year. Also, if you plan to drive into fences, probably best not to remove the front bumper and aluminum skid plate that comes stock. The cyber truck's underbody does have some protection, but this battery armor should be an additional add-on for people that are really heavy into off-roading, so if the cyber truck were to get stuck on a rock or something like that, it's added protection. For the rock sliders, companies like Unplugged already have third-party options, but it'll be nice to have an option direct from Tesla.
More welcome news when it comes to Tesla charging, they said, were more than doubling annual openings of the destination charging network. As a Tesla owner, I can confirm, anytime we take a small trip, one of my main considerations is does that location have a Tesla charger.As a business owner, if you do this over the long term, you're likely to garner many more customers. The convenience of leaving a hotel or a shopping center or restaurant with a full charge is a beautiful thing. Thanks to the EV tax credit loopholes, some EV leases are now $20 a month. EV leases accounted for a record 32% of EV transactions in the US during the first quarter of this year. That's up from 11% one year ago and well above the auto industry wide rate of 19%. If you didn't know, leases classify the vehicles as commercial, which allows them to qualify for the full credit, even if they don't meet the requirements.
In Colorado, some new Nissan Leaf models were available this summer for as little as $20 a month. Clearly, many manufacturers are choosing to pass on that $7,500 credit to the consumer. Bear in mind, Tesla's lease rate has steadily been below 5% now for some time, so this is largely being driven by non-Tesla vehicles. On that point, Elon shared some of the EV incentives available right now in Colorado saying it's the best deal in America for a Tesla.
I just found this one to be funny, both Rohan Patel and Martin Vieja are getting in on the fun of poking fun at all of Toyota's announcements about future solid state EV battery plans. Tesla stock closed the day at $226.17 up 4.58% while the NASDAQ was up 0.84%. It was a normal volume day for Tesla, trading about 2 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days.
我觉得这个很有趣,Rohan Patel 和 Martin Vieja 都在调侃丰田关于未来固态电池电动汽车计划的各种公告。特斯拉股票今天以226.17美元收盘,上涨了4.58%,而纳斯达克指数则上涨了0.84%。对于特斯拉来说,这一天的交易量算正常,比过去30天的平均交易量多了大约200万股。
Hope you all have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X-Link to allow, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.