Markets Weekly September 7, 2024

Hello my friends, today is September 7th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a pretty red-weakened markets. We had notable declines in all major equity market indexes. Now last week we were wondering if we would just blast off to new all-time highs or if we would double-top and it looks like we have the answer. Today let's talk about three things. First, we have to talk about the most important data point the past week, the non-forms perils print but let's also talk about a number of other indicators that suggest a weakening US labor market.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是9月7日，这是《每周市场》节目。过去这一周的市场表现相当疲软，所有主要股市指数都出现了显著下跌。上周我们还在猜测是否会冲击新的历史高点，还是会形成双顶。现在看起来答案已经明确。今天我们来讨论三件事。首先，我们必须谈一谈过去一周最重要的数据点，即非农就业报告，但我们也会讨论其他一些表明美国劳动力市场正在疲软的指标。

Secondly, let's talk a little bit about Australia and Canada. Two countries that are similar in some key respects but on the one hand, the Bank of Canada has cut rates for the third time in the past week but the Reserve Bank of Australia has yet to cut rates at all. Let's talk about what might be driving that difference. And lastly, so a few days ago President Trump floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund and now reports are indicating that team Biden is running with the idea. Let's talk about why a US sovereign wealth fund is a ridiculous idea.

其次，我们谈谈澳大利亚和加拿大。这两个国家在某些关键方面非常相似，但加拿大央行在过去的一周内已经第三次降息，而澳大利亚央行则一次都没有降息。我们来讨论一下是什么原因导致了这种差异。最后，几天前特朗普总统提出了建立美国主权财富基金的想法，现在有报道显示，拜登团队正在推动这个想法。我们来谈谈为什么建立美国主权财富基金是一个荒唐的主意。

Okay, starting with the labor market. Now before we get into the really big non-forms perils print, let's talk about a number of other surveys on the labor market that together are suggesting that the US labor market is decelerating pretty quickly. First, let's look at Joltz. Joltz is basically the number of job openings in the US. Now we can see during the pandemic area, job openings absolutely surged as companies scrambled to find workers and were increasing wages rapidly to try to entice people to join their company.

好的，首先我们来看一下劳动力市场。在我们深入讨论那个非常重要的非农就业数据之前，先谈谈其他的一些反映劳动力市场状况的调查，这些调查共同表明美国劳动力市场正在迅速放缓。 首先，我们来看一下JOLTS。JOLTS基本上是指美国的职位空缺数量。我们可以看到，在疫情期间，职位空缺数量急剧上升，因为公司争先恐后地寻找员工，并迅速提高工资来吸引人们加入他们的公司。

But over the past year, you can see that a number of job openings has steadily declined and the most recent Joltz print was lower than expected. Separately, let's look at the Challenger report. The Challenger is another survey where they ask a whole bunch of companies about their intentions when it comes to hiring and firing workers. One thing that stood out to me in the most recent Challenger survey is this, that the hiring tensions of companies are the lowest it's ever been according to the survey.

但是在过去一年中，你可以看到职位空缺的数量稳步下降，最新的JOLTS报告（职位空缺和劳动力流动调查）数据低于预期。另一个我们可以看的报告是Challenger报告。Challenger是另一项调查，他们询问了很多公司关于雇佣和解雇员工的意向。让我印象深刻的一点是，在最近的Challenger调查中，公司雇佣员工的意向是该调查以来最低的。

But at the same time though, note that whereas firing intentions picked up a bit the past month they are seasonally where you would expect them to be. One thing that stood out to me though is the firing intentions for tech. Now it looks like there really is a white collar recession where white collar workers are having a harder time getting jobs than blue collar workers are reversed from the way it's been the past few years. Another popular survey is the S&P PMI index where they survey a whole bunch of companies when it comes to say their judgment on business conditions, hiring and so forth.

但是与此同时，请注意，尽管上个月裁员意向略有上升，但它们在季节性上还是处于预期范围内。不过，有一点特别引起我的注意，就是科技行业的裁员意向。现在看起来确实出现了“白领衰退”，即白领员工找工作比蓝领员工更困难，这与过去几年的情况正好相反。另一个受欢迎的调查是标普PMI指数，他们会对大量公司进行调查，了解它们对商业状况、招聘等方面的判断。

Now the most recent services PMI shows that services companies in the US continue to expand. Now that is of course in line with what we saw in the GDP data where the most recent second quarter of GDP was revised upwards from 2.8% to 3%. Companies continue to expand. However though in the most recent PMI survey they also note that the hiring component is the weakest it's been in three months. Now the last survey that I want to look at is the Fed's beige book.

现在，最新的服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，美国的服务公司继续扩张。这当然与我们在GDP数据中看到的情况一致，最近的第二季度GDP从2.8%上调到了3%。公司在继续扩张。然而，在最新的PMI调查中，他们也指出，招聘部分是过去三个月中最弱的。现在，我想看的最后一个调查是美联储的“褐皮书”。

Now the Fed actually has a very very extensive intelligence gathering operation where they talk with businesses big and small throughout the country to get a sense qualitatively what the businesses are doing. Now according to the latest beige book survey companies are not really firing anyone but they're also not really hiring anyone and they continue to view business conditions as pretty uncertain so they're not really sure what they should be doing.

现在，美联储实际上有一个非常非常广泛的情报搜集机制，他们和全国各地的大中小企业交流，以定性了解这些企业的状况。根据最新的《褐皮书》调查，公司目前并没有大规模裁员，但也没有在积极招聘，而且他们对业务状况的看法仍然相当不确定，所以很多公司不确定应该怎么做。

Now taking all this data into account it's pitting a picture that whereas we don't have a lot of companies firing people and again that's consistent with the weekly job unemployment claims not really spiking but also they're not really hiring a lot of people. So they are moderating their plans but continuing to expand. That brings us to the most recent non-forms payroll sprint. Now the headline print was a bit softer than expected but still showed over 100,000 jobs created last month. What stood out to me looking into the details was the unemployment rate decline from 4.3% to 4.2% which is really good news because oftentimes when we see an increase in the unemployment rate it tends to continue to increase and sometimes rapidly.

现在考虑到所有这些数据，情况是这样的：虽然我们没有看到很多公司解雇员工，这和每周失业救济申请数量没有明显上涨是一致的，但同时他们也没有在大规模招聘。因此，他们在调整计划但仍在继续扩展业务。这引出了最近的非农就业报告。当期的头条数据比预期稍微疲软，但上月仍增加了超过10万个就业岗位。让我印象深刻的是失业率从4.3%下降到4.2%，这是个好消息，因为通常情况下，当我们看到失业率上升时，它往往会继续上升，有时候还会迅速增加。

Now again the labor market to be clear is slowing but not yet sending recessionary signals. When we have a recession we don't create 100,000 jobs a month we lose 100,000 jobs a month and we see GDP contract whether they expand at a 3.0% annual rate but we are heading into a direction where it is possible in the coming months we could slow enough to tip into recession. Now the equity market seems to be looking at all this labor market data and becoming increasingly concerned of a potential recession in which case equity prices usually go down sometimes by a lot. The interest rate markets are looking at this in pricing in pretty significant fed cuts.

现在，劳动力市场显然在放缓，但还没有发出衰退信号。当我们遇到经济衰退时，我们每月不会新增10万个工作岗位，而是每月减少10万个工作岗位，同时我们会看到GDP收缩（当前GDP年增长率为3.0%）。不过，我们正朝着一个方向发展，未来几个月内有可能放缓至陷入衰退。股票市场似乎正在关注所有这些劳动力市场数据，并对潜在的经济衰退越来越担忧，这种情况下股价通常会下降，有时会大幅下降。利率市场则在对此进行反应，预期美联储将有较大的降息幅度。

We had important fed speakers on Friday and they seem to be open to the idea of larger than expected cuts but not right away and so the market right now is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September and probably larger cuts in November or December and that could happen depending on how the data evolves at the moment though I think it really is just whatever the data brings. So let's watch that closely in the coming weeks.

周五我们有重要的美联储官员发表讲话，他们似乎对大于预期的降息持开放态度，但不会马上行动。因此，目前市场预计9月会有25个基点的降息，11月或12月可能会有更大的降息。这些变化取决于数据的表现。目前来看，一切都取决于数据。所以我们需要在接下来的几周密切关注数据。

Okay the next thing that I want to talk about is Australia and Canada. Two countries that are similar in many respects but have had very different monetary policies. So how are they similar? Well first off again they are English speaking countries that are you know share Anglo heritage like the US and they are similar in size with Canada being a bit bigger. Now some of their policies though are also very similar so both countries have had tremendous amounts of migration in the past few years notably from India where in one year their population increased by almost 3% almost entirely from migration both in Canada and in Australia. And these countries are heavy in resources extraction and also home to tremendous tremendous surges in home prices and like the rest of the world they also experienced high inflation.

好的，接下来我想谈谈澳大利亚和加拿大。这两个国家在许多方面相似，但在货币政策上却有很大不同。那么，它们有哪些相似之处呢？首先，它们都是讲英语的国家，和美国一样有着盎格鲁文化背景，而且它们的国土面积相仿，不过加拿大要稍微大一些。此外，它们在政策上也有许多相似之处，比如过去几年中，这两个国家都大规模接纳了移民，尤其是来自印度的移民，有一年他们的人口几乎完全由于移民而增长了接近3%。这两个国家的资源开采业都非常发达，房价也经历了巨大的上涨，此外和世界其他地方一样，它们也面临着高通胀。

So we've talked about Canada before over the past few years we saw CPI in Canada surge but over the past year also come down significantly and so much so that the Bank of Canada cut rates for the third time last week no surprise looking at their inflation numbers they are very close to 2% and they've also been seeing notable rises in their unemployment rate. Now overall Canadian GDP continues to grow but that is often masking a per capita recession where the GDP is merely growing because you're adding more people on a per capita basis GDP in Canada has been shrinking for a few quarters and so many people are feeling squeezed. But thankfully though the rate cuts are helping a lot of people because a lot of mortgages in Canada are renewed every few years in a sense it's kind of like having a floating rate mortgage and as interest rates go down more and more Canadian families are able to renew their mortgages at levels or lower than let's say the 5 and 6% they would be at not too long ago.

我们之前讨论过加拿大的情况，过去几年我们看到加拿大的消费者价格指数（CPI）飙升，但在过去的一年里也显著下降，结果是加拿大央行上周第三次降息。看看他们的通胀数据，这并不意外，因为通胀率已经非常接近2%，同时失业率也显著上升。尽管整体上加拿大的GDP在持续增长，但这往往掩盖了人均GDP衰退的现实，这种增长主要是因为人口增加。从人均来看，加拿大的GDP已经连续几个季度下降，许多人感到生活压力增加。但幸运的是，降息政策对许多人有很大帮助，因为加拿大的很多房贷每隔几年都会续签，在某种程度上这类似于浮动利率贷款。随着利率下降，越来越多的加拿大家庭能以更低的利率续签房贷，比起之前的5%或6%，这无疑减轻了他们的负担。

Now moving to Australia even though there are similar macro factors the Reserve Bank of Australia actually hasn't cut rates at all. In fact not too long ago there were whispers of further rate hikes. Now looking into the inflation data in Australia it's clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia is not cutting because inflation remains high at 3.9% again much higher than their inflation target. Looking into the components of inflation similar to Canada a big part of their inflation is driven by rents where when you increase the population significantly of course that creates immense demand for housing and all sorts of other services like hospitals, education and so that also drives up services inflation. So in a sense similar to Canada their inflation is largely the result of their macroeconomic immigration policies.

现在谈到澳大利亚，尽管存在相似的宏观因素，澳大利亚储备银行实际上并没有降息。事实上，不久前还有传言说会进一步加息。查看澳大利亚的通货膨胀数据，很明显，澳大利亚储备银行并未降息，因为通胀率依然很高，达到了3.9%，远高于他们的通胀目标。分析通货膨胀的构成部分，和加拿大类似，澳大利亚的通胀很大一部分是由房租推动的。当人口显著增加时，这自然会对住房以及各类服务如医院和教育产生巨大的需求，从而推高了服务类通胀。因此，在某种程度上，和加拿大类似，他们的通胀在很大程度上是由宏观经济移民政策引起的。

Now strangely though why has the inflation come down so quickly in Canada but not as quickly in Australia. Now one reason for this that's being floated around is that the interest rates in Australia actually did not increase as aggressively as they did in Canada. Looking at the policy rates for the two countries you can see that you know the Bank of Canada raised rates super aggressively and has begun cutting them whereas the Reserve Bank of Australia didn't rise didn't high-rate as much and just kind of kept it there and it's possible that they did not raise rates high enough. Another possibility is that Canada being much closer to the US again tremendous amounts of supply chains and so forth maybe it's just easier to get the supply side down but I think it's pretty interesting to see how these two countries have similar in many respects but such a different pathways when it comes to monetary policy and right now the market is thinking that maybe the RBA would cut later on but obviously when inflation is at 3.9 percent you probably shouldn't be doing that.

让我们来谈谈一个奇怪的现象：为什么加拿大的通胀下降得如此之快，而澳大利亚的通胀却没那么快。一个被广泛讨论的原因是，澳大利亚的利率并不像加拿大那样大幅上升。通过对比两国的政策利率可以发现，加拿大央行大幅加息，随后又开始降息，而澳大利亚储备银行的加息幅度较小，基本保持在一个水平，可能是因为他们未能将利率提高到足够高的水平。另一种可能性是，由于加拿大离美国更近，供应链受益较多，因此更容易降低供应端的压力。但我认为，这确实很有意思，这两个国家在许多方面相似，但在货币政策上却走了不同的路径。目前市场预期澳储行未来可能降息，但显然在通胀率达到3.9%的情况下，降息可能不是明智之举。

Okay the last thing that I want to talk about is the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. Now this idea has been floating around by President Trump a few days ago and now there's a Bloomberg article suggesting that they are influential people in the Biden administration who are actually trying to put this together. Now this is a really strange idea because well first let's think about why countries usually have sovereign wealth funds. Let's look at for example Norway which has a tremendous tremendous sovereign wealth fund of more than 1.5 trillion dollars. Now why does Norway have a sovereign wealth fund? Well the country owns a whole bunch of oil and the government sells that oil and it earns a whole bunch of money and what do they do with that money? Well they decide to just put it in this sovereign wealth fund that in turn invests in stuff throughout the world with the notion that you know eventually one day this oil is going to run out or maybe we transition into a economy that requires less oil so right now we have this windfall let's be responsible and invest this money so that future generations of new regions can benefit from it. So this ginormous ginormous sovereign wealth fund of Norway what do they do with it? What do they invest in? Well actually if you look at their largest holdings again they hold equities fixed income real estate clean energy stuff looking at their equity holdings they're largest holdings. Now to get this is a Norwegian corona to get that into dollars divided by 10.7. So basically the largest holdings are basically max seven stocks so and to be clear they've done very well with max seven holdings.

好的，最后我想讨论一下美国主权财富基金的概念。这一想法是几天前由特朗普总统提出的，现在有一篇彭博社的文章暗示拜登政府中有些有影响力的人士实际上试图将这一想法付诸实施。这确实是一个非常奇怪的想法，因为首先我们需要考虑为什么国家通常会有主权财富基金。 我们来看一个例子，挪威拥有一个超过1.5万亿美元的庞大主权财富基金。为什么挪威会有这样的基金呢？这是因为这个国家拥有大量的石油，政府通过出售这些石油赚取大量资金。那么他们拿这些钱做什么呢？他们决定将这些钱放入主权财富基金中，基金再将这些钱投资于世界各地的项目。因为有一天石油可能会用尽，或者我们可能会过渡到一个需要更少石油的经济体，为了考虑未来，现在有这笔巨大的收入，我们要负责任地投资这些钱，以便挪威的后代能够受益。 那么，挪威这个庞大的主权财富基金具体投在哪里呢？他们投资于股票、固定收益、房地产和清洁能源等。看他们的股票投资，最大的持股。需要注意的是，他们的投资表现非常好。总结一下，挪威通过将石油收入慎重投资，构建了一个庞大的财富基金，为未来做准备。

So the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund has a bunch of oil money buys a bunch of US stocks buys a bunch of US Trejories as well in real estate throughout the world but it makes sense obviously they have a lot of extra money. Now another common way that people have a sovereign wealth fund is that their country earns a lot of money through trade. Now let's look at the case of China. As we all know China is the workshop of the world. Chinese businesses are very good at manufacturing things and they sell stuff sell to countries throughout the world and they earn more in foreign currency than they import. So they export more than they import and so they have all this foreign money largely dollars left over. So what do they do with all this foreign currency? Well the Chinese government invests it. Now a lot of it is in things like Trejories kind of safe assets but we also know that the Chinese government has been investing this throughout projects throughout the world say in Africa through things like the Belt and Road Initiative in part to build political goodwill but also in part to diversify their exposure to the US government. So they have a lot of extra money that they earn through trade and then they go and they invest that elsewhere.

挪威的主权财富基金掌握着大量的石油收入，他们购买了大量的美国股票和美国国债，还在全球各地投资房地产。这显然很有道理，因为他们有很多额外的资金。而另一种建立主权财富基金的常见方式，是一个国家通过贸易赚取大量收入。 现在让我们看看中国的情况。众所周知，中国是世界的工厂。中国企业非常擅长制造产品，并向全球各地出口商品，这样他们赚取的外汇就比进口的多。也就是说，中国的出口多于进口，因此积累了大量的外汇，主要是美元。那么，中国会怎么处理这些外汇呢？ 中国政府会将这些外汇进行投资。许多投资是投入像美国国债这样的安全资产中，但我们也知道，中国政府还通过“一带一路”倡议等项目，将这些外汇投资到全球各地，比如非洲。这部分是为了建立政治友谊，部分也是为了分散对美国政府的依赖。因此，中国通过贸易赚取了大量的额外资金，然后将这些资金投资到其他地方。

Now let's look at the US. Does the US have tremendous amounts of natural resources? Absolutely except that it does not belong to the US government or at least the US government is not exploiting it. So there's no huge oil fund, oil revenues that the US government has. What about does the US earn a whole bunch of foreign currency from their overseas exports? Actually it doesn't. The US is famous for having a current account deficit so every year they import a lot more than they export so that's money flowing out of the country to the tune of hundreds of billions. So obviously the US government does not have excess money to invest so where would the money for a sovereign wealth fund come from? Well it would probably come from the same place all US government spending comes from. They would just print a bunch of treasuries and use that to finance the sovereign wealth fund.

现在让我们看看美国。美国是否拥有大量的自然资源？绝对有，但是这些资源并不属于美国政府，或者至少美国政府没有在开发这些资源。因此，美国政府并没有巨大的石油基金或石油收入。那么，美国通过海外出口赚取了大量外汇吗？实际上并没有。美国以经常账户赤字而闻名，每年进口远多于出口，因此有数千亿美元的钱流出美国。所以显然，美国政府没有多余的钱来投资，那么主权财富基金的钱会来自哪里呢？好，这些钱可能会来自美国政府所有支出的同一个地方。他们可能会发行一大堆国债，然后用这些资金来融资主权财富基金。

Now reporting from team Biden suggests that the rationale for having a sovereign wealth fund is to invest in strategic things, be it resources or cutting edge technology and basically help in the geopolitical great power competition. Now that's kind of strange to me because it seems like the US government is already doing that right? Every year the US has a tremendous fiscal deficit, a lot of that goes into things like defense and subsidies to all sorts of industrial projects. So in a sense the US is already spending a lot of money achieving those very same goals. Defense department obviously events in all sorts of private sector companies to try to get technology and so forth.

来自拜登团队的报告表明，设立主权财富基金的理由是投资于战略性事物，无论是资源还是尖端技术，基本上是为了在地缘政治大国竞争中占据优势。这对我来说有点奇怪，因为看起来美国政府已经在做这些事情了，对吧？每年美国都有巨大的财政赤字，其中很大一部分用于国防和各种产业项目的补贴。所以在某种意义上，美国已经花费了大量资金来实现这些相同的目标。国防部显然在各种私营公司中进行投资，以获取技术等等。

Now how is having a sovereign wealth fund different from let's say just what we're doing right now appropriating money through Congress? And I think the key difference again remember the US doesn't actually have extra money to invest it would be just another way to have more government spending except outside of the purview of Congress. Right now if you want to come if you have a company or if you are a special interest and you want to get money you have to go and lobby your congressman and maybe Congress passed legislation and basically print treasuries to finance your your handout.

现在，有一个主权财富基金和我们目前通过国会拨款有什么不同？我认为关键的区别在于，美国实际上没有多余的钱来投资。设立主权财富基金只是另一种增加政府支出的方式，只不过不受国会的监督。目前，如果你有一家公司或者你是一个特殊利益群体，并且你想要获得资金，你必须去游说你的国会议员，然后可能国会会通过立法，基本上是通过发行国债来为你的补贴提供资金。

If we would have if we were to have a sovereign wealth fund now going forward special interests or whatever companies that want to have government money maybe they won't have to go through Congress maybe they can go through whoever is governing the sovereign wealth fund instead. In a sense it would give the executive or however the sovereign wealth fund is governed access to a piggy bank that they can then dole out to their friends or maybe even two things that they think are important. So it seems like a US sovereign wealth fund doesn't make sense unless you want to have more government spending outside of the purview of Congress basically without checks and balances.

如果我们现在要设立一个主权财富基金，今后那些希望获得政府资金的特殊利益集团或公司可能不需要通过国会了，可能他们可以直接找负责管理这个主权财富基金的人。某种意义上，这会让行政部门或掌管主权财富基金的人获得一个“储蓄罐”，可以用来分配给他们的朋友，或者用于他们认为重要的事情。因此，除非你希望增加政府开支而绕过国会的审查和制衡，美国设立主权财富基金似乎没有意义。

So to me that that seems like a bad idea and a way to circumvent our our political system. So hopefully there will not be any sovereign wealth fund and to be clear the US does not need one. If you have the reserve currency whenever you need to buy something you do it the way that the government already does you just print treasuries.

对我来说，这看起来是一个糟糕的主意，是绕过我们政治体系的一种方式。所以希望不会出现任何主权财富基金。需要明确的是，美国并不需要这样的基金。如果你拥有储备货币，每当你需要购买什么东西时，你可以按照政府已经在做的那样，直接印发国债就行了。

All right so that's a lot prepared thanks so much you're tuning in if you liked the video remember to like and subscribe and of course if you're interested in hearing my thoughts check out my blog at fedguy.com or learn more about macro markets on my online courses at centralbanking101.com.

好的，那准备的内容很多，非常感谢你的关注。如果你喜欢这段视频，请记得点赞和订阅。当然，如果你对我的观点感兴趣，可以访问我的博客 fedguy.com，或者在 centralbanking101.com 上了解更多关于宏观市场的在线课程。

Talk to you guys next week.

下周再和你们聊。