We Were Wrong / Tesla Drops AI Roadmap / Things Ramping at Tesla ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, so in the title when I was saying that we were wrong I was referring to myself and Chris from Dirty Tesla. Yesterday we were talking about how actually SmartSummon hit a curb while Chris was testing it, but there's also this. It comes up and it almost hits this curb, coming straight out right away, but it stops prematurely. And throughout all of my tests you'll notice in other videos like Dirty Tesla has a video where he says his car hit a curb. But it clearly does not hit curbs and it's evidenced by zooming in on the camera footage. However, what is awfully frightening and it even fooled Dirty Tesla when he was inside of his car is that the car makes this grinding metal noise whenever it comes to a stop. And I did do a close up just to see if I did have any damage on my wheel and I did not. There you have it, SmartSummon may not actually be hitting the curbs, but doing quite a good job at simulating it. I'm sure many of you have seen the new Tesla AI roadmap by now, but if you haven't and for my audio listeners, for the remainder of September we can expect FSD version 12.5.2, which should have a 3 times improvement when it comes to miles between interventions. They do specifically say necessary interventions, but we can't really do much with that since they haven't released any MPI data at all. We're supposed to get 12.5.2 on AI3 with unified models for AI3 and AI4.

欢迎来到 Electrified，我是主持人Dylan Loomis。标题中提到我们错了，这里指的是我和来自Dirty Tesla的Chris。昨天我们谈到Chris在测试SmartSummon功能时，汽车实际撞到了路缘，但实际上有更多情况。在测试中，它靠近并几乎撞到路缘，直接开了过去，不过提前停了下来。在我所有的测试中，你会注意到，像Dirty Tesla的视频中提到他的车撞到了路缘，但通过放大相机镜头清晰地看到，实际上并没有撞到路缘。然而令人担忧的是，每当汽车停下时，总会发出金属摩擦的噪音，甚至让Dirty Tesla在车里时都误以为汽车撞到了什么。我仔细检查了我的车轮，发现并没有任何损坏。事实证明，SmartSummon可能并没有真的撞到路缘，而是模拟得非常相似。 我相信很多人已经看到了新的Tesla AI路线图，但如果你还没看到，为了我的音频听众，接下来的9月份我们可以期待FSD版本12.5.2，相比以前在每次干预之间的行驶里程方面会有3倍的改进。他们特别提到是“必要干预”，但我们无法做更多的分析，因为他们还没有发布任何MPI数据。我们预计在AI3上会得到12.5.2版本，AI3和AI4将会统一模型。

To date, the model for AI3 has been that quantized version of FSD but moving to unified this month. We've known actually SmartSummon is supposed to go wide next week, auto-park for the Cybertruck supposed to come this weekend, eye-tracking with sunglasses, we've known about that one. The end-to-end network on the highway supposed to come this month and FSD for Cybertruck also this month. In October we get some new updates we can expect on-park, park, and reverse in FSD along with FSD version 13 that's supposed to have a 6x improvement for miles between interventions. And then the real needle movers we have FSD expected in Europe and China in quarter one of 2025, but pending regulatory approval. It should go without saying these latter two updates are massive as that would be millions of customers now having access to FSD being able to use it, talk about it, share it with their circle, and likely be a lot more willing to pay for it since they can actually have the technology deployed. Based on everything I've been reading this year, it actually sounds like regulatory approval in China is a bit more likely or has an easier road ahead than it does across the EU.

截至目前，AI3的模型是量化版的全自动驾驶（FSD），但本月将转向统一版本。实际上，我们已经知道SmartSummon计划下周大范围推出，Cybertruck的自动泊车功能预计本周末上线，带太阳镜的眼球追踪功能我们也早有耳闻。高速公路的端到端网络预计本月上线，Cybertruck的FSD同样计划在本月推出。10月，我们可以期待在FSD中新增自动泊车、停车和倒车的功能，同时FSD版本13预计将在每次干预之间的行驶里程方面提升6倍。最重要的是，我们预计2025年第一季度在欧洲和中国推出FSD，但需等待监管批准。不言而喻，后面这两个更新非常重大，因为这意味着数百万用户将能够访问和使用FSD，可以讨论它、分享使用体验，并且由于技术真正得以部署，用户可能也更愿意为此支付费用。根据我今年一直在阅读的信息，实际上中国的监管审批更有可能通过，或者说比起欧盟前景更为光明。

There has been some progress this year for automated driving features across the EU, but one of the biggest things we'll need to see changed for this to be a smooth rollout for Tesla is one clear legislation or set of policies across Europe. That's because most progress right now is achieved on a country level. Responding to the roadmap, Elon added hopefully right hand drive markets in late quarter one early quarter two, again pending regulatory approval. It may not technically be a global release for FSD, but in the next 10 months for all intents and purposes, it could be. I feel like I need to remind everybody what Elon said in May, he said 12.4 was going to be a 5 to 10x improvement in that miles between intervention metric, but 12.4 never made it to a wide release and I know not everybody has seen a 5 to 10x improvement even with the release of 12.5. I've been saying I think it's time for Tesla to release this MPI data, especially if they're going to continually talk about these improvement numbers with every new release. Some people out there are saying that this is all enabled by Tesla's new compute cluster cortex, but the way I see it, by and large, that won't be truly up and running at max capacity until closer to the end of this year. That doesn't mean that cortex won't be contributing anything until the end of this year, but even so, I think that makes these releases even more impressive.

今年，欧盟在自动驾驶功能方面取得了一些进展，但如果特斯拉想要顺利推出这些功能，我们需要看到整个欧洲有一套明确的法规或政策。目前，大部分进展是在各个国家层面上取得的。针对这一问题，Elon 回复说，希望在第一季度末至第二季度初能够在右舵市场推出，但仍需等待监管批准。尽管这可能技术上并不算是完全的全球发布，但从实际上来看，在未来的十个月内，它可能会实现。我觉得有必要提醒大家，Elon 在五月时曾说过，12.4 版本会在干预里程指标上有 5 到 10 倍的提升，但 12.4 从未广泛发布，而即便是在 12.5 版本发布后，也并不是所有人都看到了 5 到 10 倍的提升。我一直认为特斯拉应该公布这个 MPI 数据，特别是如果他们要在每次新版本发布时强调这些改进指标的话。有些人说这些提升都得益于特斯拉的新计算集群 Cortex，但在我看来，它大规模运行到最大容量可能要到今年年底。这并不意味着 Cortex 要到年底才能提供任何贡献，但即便如此，我认为这使得这些发布更加令人印象深刻。

Overall, I love the transparency with this list, even though it may give some of the detractors, another window to argue that Tesla is missing some timelines, if that is indeed how this plays out, at least for some. And as I titled a video a few weeks back, in the year ahead, it's looking like things are going to be quite exciting at Tesla yet again after a period that we can classify as rather quiet, at least for Tesla's standards. Tesla does have close to 2 million local owners in China, so easy math if just 10% of them, which would be 200,000, actually pay around $8,000 for FSD, that would be $1.6 billion, which as we know is largely mostly margin for Tesla. Obviously, it's not likely that everyone would pay the full price up front as it's likely that Tesla will offer a subscription model as well.

总的来说，我非常喜欢这份名单的透明度，尽管这可能会给一些批评者另一个攻击点，他们可能会认为特斯拉错过了一些时间节点。如果事情确实如此发展，至少对某些人来说，会被视为一个缺点。几周前我在视频标题中提到，展望未来的一年，特斯拉又将迎来一个充满激动人心事件的时期，这段时间相对静默，至少按照特斯拉的标准来看。特斯拉在中国拥有接近200万本地车主，简单计算一下，如果其中只有10%，也就是20万人，实际支付大约8000美元购买完全自动驾驶（FSD）的话，那将是一笔16亿美元的收入，而我们知道这基本上大部分是利润。显然，并不是所有人都会一次性支付全款，因为特斯拉可能会提供订阅模式。

George Powerhouse secured a battery and equipment supply agreement with Tesla for a 2000 megawatt hour or 2 gigawatt hour portfolio of projects across four different projects. They're seeking expedited approval of this portfolio to address some 2026 and 2027 winter resource shortfalls. All four projects will use Tesla's latest 2XL megapacks from Lathrop. Here's a table with these specific counties where these projects will be and they all have a commercial operation date between May and November 2026. The smallest project is 198 megawatt hours and the largest one will be 1.06 gigawatt hours. As always, we don't know specific contract details, but this could be another contract worth about $500 million for Tesla.

乔治电力公司与特斯拉达成了一项电池和设备供应协议，用于总容量为2000兆瓦时或2吉瓦时的四个项目。他们正在寻求加快审批这一项目组合，以应对2026年和2027年冬季的资源短缺。这四个项目将全部使用特斯拉最新的来自拉斯罗普的2XL Megapacks。以下是这些项目所在具体县的列表，所有项目的商业运营日期在2026年5月至11月之间。最小的项目为198兆瓦时，最大的为1.06吉瓦时。正如往常一样，我们不知道具体的合同细节，但这可能是特斯拉价值约5亿美元的另一项合同。

Morgan Stanley released another Tesla stock note saying Tesla remains our top pick in US autos. They said we forecast Tesla's gap operating profit to come in this year at $5.6 billion, but when backing out their forecast for EV credits, which are around $2.3 billion, and their estimate for Tesla energy operating profit around $1.1 billion, that drops the core auto operating profit number to $2.2 billion. Then they said they can actually account for most of that $2.2 billion from things like recurring revenue streams like connectivity, charging, software services, upgrades, FSD, etc. Implying remaining operations mostly the real core EV business to be lost making this year. However, operating profit is after operating expenses and the last line is very important. They said we note a large portion of Tesla's opx burden is non-auto, basically compute, which this algebraic exercise does not adjust for.

摩根士丹利发布了另一份关于特斯拉股票的报告，表示特斯拉仍是他们在美国汽车行业的首选。他们表示，我们预测特斯拉今年的营业利润将达到56亿美元，但如果排除他们对电动汽车积分的预测（大约23亿美元）和对特斯拉能源营业利润的估计（约11亿美元），核心汽车营业利润将降至22亿美元。然后他们表示，他们实际上可以通过一些经常性的收入来源（如联网服务、充电、软件服务、升级、全自动驾驶等）来解释这22亿美元中的大部分，这意味着剩下的大部分核心电动汽车业务今年将亏损。 然而，营业利润是在扣除运营费用后的利润，而最后一点非常重要。他们指出，特斯拉的大部分运营费用负担并非来自汽车业务，而基本上来自计算方面，这个代数计算并没有进行调整。

Now, the reason I think that was actually worth sharing is because much of Wall Street is in this camp and that they're waiting to see where Tesla's core EV business is going to bottom out in terms of margin and profit. That's why so many analysts are so laser focused on metrics like gross margin X credits. In fairness, there are still question marks like how much the fed cutting interest rates will one actually impact the auto loan rates that people can get and how much of an impact that will have on Tesla sales because they've already been offering lower interest rate incentives now for a majority of the year. Granted, a lot of that was in global markets, but the point still stands. And given that Elon has said the cost cutting for the current lineup is basically at the bottom, meaning there's not that many pennies left to be removed, we may be waiting for the next gen platform or more from autonomy for Tesla to actually boost its overall operating profit. And we know Tesla energy is looking great, but I'm just talking about from the auto side. So my point with all of this is that until that part of the business can show some signs of life again, I think many analysts in the big money on Wall Street is still going to remain quite skeptical.

现在，我认为这值得分享的原因是因为华尔街的很多人都在等待，看特斯拉核心电动汽车业务的利润率和利润会在何处触底。这就是为什么这么多分析师非常关心像除去碳信用后的毛利率这种指标。公平地说，还有一些不确定因素，比如美联储降息到底会对人们能够获得的汽车贷款利率产生多大影响，这又会对特斯拉的销量有多大影响，因为他们今年已经大部分时间在提供较低利率的激励措施。当然，很多激励措施是在全球市场上，但这个观点仍然有效。鉴于埃隆·马斯克表示，现有车型的成本削减基本到达底线，意味着再难降低成本，我们可能需要等待下一代平台或者更多自动驾驶技术来提升特斯拉的整体运营利润。而我们知道，特斯拉能源业务表现良好，但我仅在讨论汽车业务。因此，我的观点是，直到这部分业务再次显示出一些生机，华尔街的许多大资金和分析师仍会保持相当的怀疑态度。

And lastly, Jonas said Tesla has sent out invitations to the October 10th event, but as far as I know, that is not accurate. On LinkedIn, Tesla posted Tesla arrives in Lithuania. The Model Y and the Model 3 are now available, double checking the Tesla configurator for Lithuania. The vehicles are available. It's not just for test drives. As you may expect, the Lithuanian auto market is not huge. The past few years, it's fluctuated between 26,000 and about 35,000 cars per year.

最后，乔纳斯说特斯拉已经发出了10月10日活动的邀请，但据我所知，这并不准确。在领英上，特斯拉发布的信息是“特斯拉到达立陶宛”。Model Y和Model 3现在已经可用，我核对了立陶宛的特斯拉配置器，车辆确实可以购买，不只是用于试驾。你可能会想到，立陶宛的汽车市场并不大，过去几年中，每年的汽车销量在26,000到35,000辆之间波动。

Heinrich Zane shared an update on X saying that there are 26 brand new Tesla semis fresh off the prototype production line from Nevada. So far, Heinrich's really has been spot on a few months ago. He was saying that toward the end of this year, it's likely that Tesla will start ramping up production of the prototype line, and that is apparently exactly what they're doing. There's a total of 26 on this side of the building, 15 on the west side and another 11 on the east side next to the park next to the building. These are brand new Tesla semis.

Heinrich Zane 在 X 上分享了一条更新消息，说有 26 辆全新的特斯拉半挂卡车刚刚从内华达州的原型生产线上下线。几个月前，Heinrich 确实很准确地预测到了这一点。他当时说，今年年底前特斯拉很可能会开始加快原型生产线的生产，而现在看起来他们确实在这么做。这 26 辆卡车中，有 15 辆在建筑物的西侧，另外 11 辆在东侧靠近公园的地方。所有这些都是全新的特斯拉半挂卡车。

There's quite a bit of activity going on here. As far as I know, these semis are being delivered to PepsiCo until they get their 100 and also being used with in demonstrations for other customers. And that's usually short term, a couple weeks to a month for them to get a feel for it and figure out how it will work with a narrow logistics operation. And then also, many of them are continuing to be delivered to Tesla to the point where someday soon they may be using all Tesla semis for their deliveries of batteries, drive motors and powerwalls.

这里活动很多。据我所知，这些半挂卡车（semis）正在交付给百事公司，直到他们收到100辆为止，同时也在用于其他客户的演示。通常，这些演示是短期的，持续几周到一个月，让客户了解它的使用情况和如何与他们的物流操作相配合。此外，很多卡车还在持续交付给特斯拉，很可能不久的将来，他们可能会全部使用特斯拉的半挂卡车来运送电池、驱动电机和电力墙。

Many people are understandably up in arms about this time 100 AI list. It's their list of the 100 most influential people in AI for this year. Their first category is leaders where you'll find people like Satya, Altman, Jensen, Zuckerberg. For innovators, they have people like Lisa Sue, Brett Adcock from Figure. For thinkers, they have Ray Kurzweil, Ilya, Shoutout to Andrei Carpathi, and even MKBHD is somehow a big time AI thinker. For shapers, they have Teary Bretton, Scott Weiner, and Scarlett Johansson, clearly a critical AI figure. I think we can wrap it up there. You get where I was going.

许多人对这份《时代》杂志100位AI影响力人物名单感到非常不满。这是他们今年评选出的在AI领域最具影响力的100个人。第一个类别是领导者，你会看到像萨蒂亚、阿尔特曼、黄仁勋、扎克伯格这样的人物。在创新者类别，有丽莎·苏、Figure的布雷特·阿多克。在思想家类别，有雷·库兹韦尔、伊利亚、安德烈·卡尔帕蒂（特别鸣谢），甚至MKBHD也 somehow成了大名鼎鼎的AI思想家。在塑造者类别，有蒂耶里·布雷顿、斯科特·温纳和斯嘉丽·约翰逊，显然也是关键的AI人物。我想我们可以在这里总结一下，你明白我的意思了。

Elon Musk is nowhere on this list. Of course, this list really means nothing, but the fact that they left Elon off the list is one of the more absurd things that I've seen this year. Elon did respond saying magazines don't establish relevance history does. But between Cortex and Colossus and Tesla's FSD and Optimus, and all of the public advocating that Elon's done for AI safety and the conversations given and his role in open AI in the early days, all you can do is shake your head and move on. And understand which publications don't deserve any relevance.

埃隆·马斯克在这个名单上根本不存在。当然，这个名单其实没有什么实质意义，但把埃隆排除在外是我今年看到的最荒唐的事情之一。埃隆回复说，杂志并不能决定什么重要，历史才能。不过，考虑到Cortex和Colossus项目、特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）、Optimus机器人，以及埃隆为人工智能安全所做的公开倡导、发表的谈话和他在OpenAI早期的角色，你只能感到无语然后继续生活。并且，了解哪些出版物根本不值得关注。

Sawyer said Tesla's referral program has launched in Germany and the UK. Some pictures were shared on Reddit of a test vehicle for Tesla with the LiDAR unit. But this time around, there was also a front bumper camera. And looking at the side profile, we have that camera pushed back from the regular placing on the side pillar, which means this is likely testing for the cybercab. 10-10 can't come soon enough. There was also a video of FSD being used in Italy. Now, I don't know exactly how this is happening.

索耶说，特斯拉的推荐计划已经在德国和英国启动了。一些人在Reddit上分享了带有LiDAR装置的特斯拉测试车辆的照片。但这次，车前保险杠上也装有一个摄像头。从侧面看，摄像头的位置比通常在侧柱上的位置靠后，这可能是在为Cybercab进行测试。10月10日太让人期待了。另外，还有一个在意大利使用FSD（完全自动驾驶）的视频。但我不太清楚这是怎么实现的。

It could be Tesla actually doing some testing themselves, or it could be somebody hacking the system. I said the latter because you may remember, a few years back, there was news that somebody hacked a Tesla in Ukraine and got FSD beta to work. Which scenario this is? I'm not sure, but I'll have the video linked below if you're interested in seeing the performance.

这可能是特斯拉在自己进行一些测试，也可能是有人黑入了系统。我说是后者，因为你可能还记得，几年前，有新闻说有人在乌克兰黑入了一辆特斯拉，并让全自动驾驶（FSD）测试版运行。到底是哪个情况？我不确定，但如果你有兴趣看表现的话，我会在下面链接视频。

BMW is aiming to bring its first hydrogen powered vehicle to the market in 2028, using fuel cell tech developed in partnership with Toyota. The company said the vehicle would be an existing model with a hydrogen fuel cell option without giving any other detail. BMW said it assumed hydrogen charging infrastructure would have developed significantly by 2028 to accommodate its plans. And I think we all know what they say about assuming. Some more for Comedy Corner, apparently the Vice President of Li Auto just made a bold statement saying that their new end-to-end and vision language model solution has surpassed Tesla's FSD. He emphasized that their breakthrough, which they're calling one model, which they're also saying is really just an end-to-end model, aka they're trying to copy what Tesla is doing. But that breakthrough allows Li Auto to challenge and surpass Tesla. They just launched their trial program inviting 10,000 users to experience the new end-to-end system.

BMW 计划在2028年推出其首款氢能源汽车，该汽车将采用与丰田合作开发的燃料电池技术。公司表示，这辆车将是一款现有车型的氢燃料电池版本，但没有透露其他细节。BMW 预计，到2028年氢能充电基础设施将会有显著发展，以配合其计划。另外，一个有趣的消息，理想汽车的副总裁最近声称他们的新端到端和视觉语言模型解决方案已经超过了特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）。他强调，他们所谓的“单一模型”的突破实际上就是一个端到端模型，即他们试图模仿特斯拉的做法。但这项突破使理想汽车能够挑战并超越特斯拉。他们刚刚推出了试验计划，邀请了1万名用户体验这一新的端到端系统。

Li Auto is spending about 2 billion yuan, which is only about $282 million this year on compute for its model. Li Auto spending hundreds of millions and Tesla spending multi-billions. Apparently not everyone in China is rightly acknowledging Tesla's lead with FSD. There are still some Gordon Johnson and Guide House solutions types in China too. Intel is considering options for its stake in struggling automated driving systems provider Mobileye. Intel could offload some of its 88% holding in Mobileye on the public market or via a sale to a third party. However, none of this is confirmed, they're just considering what they want to do. Mobileye's stock is down about 71% this year and at least in part it's because many automakers have been pulling back on their production plans, which means less sales for Mobileye.

理想汽车今年在计算投入上花费了大约20亿元人民币（约2.82亿美元）。与此相比，理想汽车只花费数亿，而特斯拉则投入了数十亿。显然，中国并不是所有人都认可特斯拉在全自动驾驶（FSD）方面的领先地位。中国也有一些像戈登·约翰逊和Guide House Solutions这样的人存在。 英特尔正在考虑其在陷入困境的自动驾驶系统供应商Mobileye中的持股选项。英特尔可能会在公开市场或者通过出售给第三方的方式，减持其在Mobileye中的88%股份。不过，这一切都还没有确定，他们只是还在考虑该怎么做。今年Mobileye的股价下跌了大约71%，部分原因是很多汽车制造商缩减了生产计划，这意味着Mobileye的销售额减少了。

Tesla stock, on the other hand, had another solid day, finishing at $230.17 up 4.9% while the Nasdaq was up 0.25%. It was a higher volume day for Tesla trading about 40 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days. It's not really Tesla related, but Trump did say at the suggestion of Elon, I'll create a government efficiency commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and making recommendations for drastic reforms. I think Friedberg would agree something like this is desperately needed for our country. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on the next links below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

特斯拉股票今天表现不错，收盘价为 $230.17，上涨了 4.9%，而纳斯达克指数仅上涨了 0.25%。今天特斯拉的交易量较高，约有 4000 万股，高于过去 30 天的平均交易量。虽然这不完全与特斯拉有关，但特朗普确实表示，应埃隆·马斯克的建议，他将成立一个政府效率委员会，负责对整个联邦政府进行全面的财务和绩效审计，并提出重大改革建议。我认为弗里德伯格也会同意，这样的措施对我们的国家是迫切需要的。希望大家有美好的一天。如果喜欢这个视频，请点赞。你可以在下面的链接中找到我，非常感谢所有 Patreon 支持者。