This video is sponsored by SimpliSafe and let me tell you, there's no safe, like SimpliSafe. Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Ken S. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. In terms of my recovery, I'm probably 85-90% of the way back, so thank you for all of your patience over the past two weeks. Meet Kevin, just put out a video about Tesla stock and I actually agree with the directional sentiment that he shared, but he made a few arguments that I definitely wanted to take a moment to respond to. And Kevin, if you see this, I know the last time I responded to one of your videos, you did end up responding to me about that, so if you happen to see this video, I'm a fan of yours, I watch your content fairly often, especially about Tesla, but I want to share some counterpoints to arguments that you made that I think could be valuable for the audience. And to be clear, as I've expressed before, when it comes to the likelihood of more downward pressure on Tesla stock in the weeks and months ahead, I actually am aligned with Kevin.
One of the first arguments Kevin cited for his concern for Tesla stock was a stat from Edmonds that 50% of Tesla buyers when they trade in their vehicles are actually trading it in for an ice vehicle. However, this breakdown of data is only for Teslas that were traded in at dealerships. So the stat is really not that of all Tesla owners 50% of them are selling their Tesla for an ice car. It's really a smaller sample size and only Tesla owners who are trading in their vehicle at a dealership. So if you trade in your car to Tesla, or you just keep that older Tesla, then you're not in this data. If you zoom out and look at the trend, that number is actually an improvement relative to just three to five years ago. Here's the Tesla trade in data by year back in 2019, 71% of Tesla trade ins were for an ice vehicle. And over the last five to six years, the general trend with some aberrations along the way has been a reduction down to 51% year to date. Additionally, more of these Tesla trade ins are actually staying in the market for an EV, even if it's from the competition. That number was 10% in 2019. It's now up to 32% year to date. Kevin also brought up residual value data for the past two years. He said for the average ice used vehicle, their residual values are down about 7%. Comparatively for the average used EV over the past two years, their average value is down 39%. That was a reason he gave for why some people don't want to buy an electric vehicle or a Tesla because the residual values are just going to plummet. But no context was given. Obviously, the last two years used Tesla prices were near their all time highs. And of course, new car price cuts for Tesla and aging vehicle fleet, all of the Hertz liquidation. My counterpoint is I just think used Tesla prices right now are much closer to a minimum. Meaning specifically for Tesla, there's much less downside when it comes to residual values for new owners buying today than there was back in 2022. I would argue legacy OEMs may still have a significant downside risk when it comes to residual values. They're likely going to have to continue lowering their new EV pricing, which will drive down used pricing. And as their second gen EVs come out, their first gen won't be as valuable. In short, as a buyer of a new Tesla vehicle today, my argument would be that there's not nearly as much downside risk when it comes to residual values as there was two years ago. Not that there's none at all, but the chances of a 50 to 100% downside for used pricing seems very unlikely. Both for the current used market and if you were to buy a new Tesla today and think about selling it in the next two to three years. Of course, autonomy could blow up that equation, but at least as things stand for now. Honestly, the fact that the Cybertruck has been out for many months now, and the Cybertruck still does not have full self driving, to me, indicates that no full self driving is not portable to different types of vehicles. But let's just be real, if we can't even get FSD for the Cybertruck, what makes any of us believe that we're actually going to get full self driving for some other company, be it a Ford or GM or otherwise.
Okay, Kevin, first of all, just because FSD is not available on the Cybertruck yet, does not mean that it's never going to be. The latest update from the Tesla engineers is that FSD will actually be on the Cybertruck as soon as next month. If you'd argue that's TBD, I would say that's fair, but at least sometime in the back half of this year, that seems more likely than not. And it's a silly hypothetical, but even if FSD never made it to the Cybertruck, that doesn't necessarily mean that it can't ever go on any legacy OEMs cars either. That's just too big of a jump to make, because it could just be that the Cybertruck is a very specific build that doesn't allow it to have FSD again in this goofy hypothetical. And to use that argument to say that well, FSD can't be licensed to any other legacy OEM because of the Cybertruck situation seems like a foolish argument. And not that it wouldn't be without challenges and not that it wouldn't take a few years at a minimum, but it's not that it's impossible. So I'm pretty confident the Cybertruck will have FSD soon and eventually Tesla will indeed license FSD to at least one or two OEMs over the next five years.
Kevin also argued that as chip technology gets better and better from the likes of Nvidia, that's going to shrink Tesla's moat when it comes to FSD. He said it was because Tesla's competition can use these upgraded chips and use things like Nvidia's Orin to create their own FSD-like technology. In short, better chip technology would make Tesla's competitors more competitive when it comes to the autonomous driving race. One problem I have with that is Tesla is likely to buy Nvidia's next-gen chips whenever they come out if their engineering team decides that they think it's worth the upgrade or the addition to their current supercomputer. So it's not like Tesla's only going to use Nvidia H1 and 200 chips into perpetuity as time goes, they'll continually upgrade using the same chips that the competition is using. And second, I would argue even more importantly, you could have the most powerful supercomputer in the world with the best chips available, but if you don't have enough data and the right data to feed it, it's effectively rendered useless. We've learned from Tesla that setting up these super computers is no easy feat, it's not like you order the chips they show up and then you throw them online and everything's good to go in a couple of hours.
Kevin 还争辩说,随着像 Nvidia 这样的公司改进芯片技术,特斯拉在全自动驾驶(FSD)方面的护城河将会缩小。他说,这是因为特斯拉的竞争对手可以使用这些升级的芯片,并利用像 Nvidia 的 Orin 芯片来开发他们自己的类似 FSD 的技术。简而言之,更好的芯片技术会使特斯拉的竞争对手在自动驾驶竞赛中更具竞争力。我有的问题之一是,如果特斯拉的工程师团队认为值得升级或添加到他们当前的超级计算机中,那么特斯拉很可能会在新的英伟达芯片推出时购买。所以特斯拉不会永远只使用当前的 H1 和 200 芯片,他们会不断地使用竞争对手所用的相同芯片进行升级。其次,更重要的是,即使你拥有世界上最强大的超级计算机和最好的芯片,但如果没有足够的数据和正确的数据来供给它,实际上是无用的。我们从特斯拉学到,建立这些超级计算机并非易事,这不像是你订购芯片,芯片到货后立马就能上线并在几个小时内万事俱备。
So legacy OEMs, if they wanted to build their own supercomputers, they're going to have to hire entire teams that know how to do that. And then they have to retrofit or build their new vehicles with cameras and sensors to start feeding data into the system. So personally, I think Tesla's lead when it comes to solving for generalized autonomy anywhere in the world is continually growing and improvements in compute is only actually going to increase Tesla's edge in that it'll be a bigger benefit to Tesla than it is for the legacy OEMs that still have to figure out their entire blueprint for autonomous driving. Most of them aren't even trying at all. By and large, they're currently focused on level 3.
In fairness, in Kevin's video, there were actually many points that I do agree with. One that he mentioned was Tesla should lower the price of FSD if not just include it outright with all new vehicles, the main reason being the network effect. That's why I've said it's fair to question why Tesla doesn't yet have a $25,000 vehicle on X. More Tesla's on the road means more people buying other Tesla products in the future and more people using and testing and talking about FSD. Would it be a hit to margins in the short term? Absolutely, but as we argued earlier this week, you can have lower margins and if those incentives drive enough incremental volume, you can end up with greater overall profits in the end, even with lower margins. But in the long term, Elon himself has said many times Tesla's value is all about autonomy. So the greater the network effect, the more Tesla's on the road, the more vehicles can flip that switch and become autonomous. And I can guarantee you if FSD was included with new vehicle purchases, many, many more people would be using it, testing it, gathering data, and talking about it with their circles.
Like I said, there were many other things he said that I agreed with like Elon and Tesla pulling forward some demand right now with all of these incentives and low interest rate offers. And when the Fed does decide to lower rates, it may not have an outsized impact on Tesla sales because they're already offering great incentives when it comes to APRs. So Kevin, if you see this, it's all love my friend and ultimately, just for the good of the conversation and keeping everybody that listens informed and giving them the ability to hear two sides of an argument. Keep up the good work I've been following you now for years.
This right here is the basement of the first house that Ashley and I ever bought just weeks after we closed. Had we been notified sooner that this was happening, we may have been able to avoid thousands of dollars of our stuff being ruined. A long story short, this jarring life event is what led me to doing a bunch of research and ultimately landing on Simply Safe for our home security system. Fast forward to today and they're the sponsor of this video. Here's how Simply Safe's water sensor could have saved us.
Ok, alerts notifications. Alarm off. One thing I love about Simply Safe is you can arm and disarm the system from your cell phone where you can see all of the notifications and everything going on or you can use the key pad. Now a lot of people will put these stationary in their house, but Ashley and I like to have them mobile so we can move them around the house as we see fit. Check out what the wired indoor camera has done for my life. The days of Ashley trying to sneak by my office undetected with all of her shopping bags are officially over. Thanks to Simply Safe.
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Chuck Cook shared that after weeks and I believe after months of trying to get his power share set up and installed, he's still working on it. Many owners that have already had their power share installations done still don't have any of the functionality through the app or the truck. The cyber truck program manager said process is improving every week but here's the required configuration of software versions. If you're out there and you have problems, you can reach out to the team at powersharesupportnaattesla.com. A silver lining is that some cyber truck users do have power share installed and they have the software updated and working. But there's some others that have had their equipment installed for over two months and it's still not activated. There's certainly a wide spectrum out there and yes, ideally this would have been a much smoother rollout but these are some of the things there's a chance you're going to encounter as an early adopter.
Shout out to Jan of the EV universe, he's been putting together some great data when it comes to global full EV sales and I love that he does not include data for hybrids. I'd encourage you to check him out. He does have a newsletter and I'll have that linked below if you're interested. In the first half of this year, over 4.5 million full BEVs were sold around the world. That number was up 12.4% compared to the first half of last year. During that time, 36 markets saw EV sales grow while 16 markets saw a decline. The global BEV market shared during that time was 12%. In other words, every 9th vehicle sold in the world was fully electric. Of course, for all light duty vehicles.
Looking at BEV growth rates by region for the first half of the year, year over year, China was up 13.5%, Europe was up 1.6% and the USA was up 7.4%. The rest of the world though, up 40.1%. Of the EVs sold, 54.6% were in China, 20.8% were in Europe, 13.1% in the US and 11.5% in the rest of the world. For the best selling EVs in the first half of the year, across China, Europe and the US, the Model Y in the number one spot, the Model 3 takes the number two spot in both Europe and the USA. Number two in China is the BYDC goal and number three, the BYD 1 plus. Again though, this is only the full BEVs. He does not include data for hybrids. In Europe, the third best seller was Volvos EX30 and in the USA, it was the Machi. There's plenty more data, but again, I'll have this linked below. I just really like the way he puts everything together and how he excludes data for hybrids. So despite what the media would have, you believe full BEV sales around the world in the first half of this year are still growing at 12.4%. So it's not 30, 40, 50% like many of us would like to see, but it's not zero or negative either.
I'm sure many of you have seen this already, but Sawyer found this on Instagram, somebody with a Cybertruck out on the road with a dryer strapped to the back and running from the power of the Cybertruck. So if you want to talk about 4D chess when it comes to marketing, I think this handyman popping his number on the back of the Cybertruck with this setup is up there with the best. On X, Phil Truby shared a post about Dojo and the Hotchips Conference we talked about yesterday. Some good additions to what I said yesterday, Phil said Tesla's working on Dojo V2 and they have plans for Dojo V3. By the way, he did watch the full conference live. I did talk about the improved latency, but Phil put some numbers on it. He has Tesla's protocol at .0013ms. Compare that to Nvidia's NV link at .0023ms and then the TCP IP up at .53ms. Tesla's protocol over ethernet nearly twice as fast as the option from Nvidia.
For what it's worth, he did say Dojo is very, very cost competitive to Nvidia, but he did not share any data and I haven't found the link for the full live stream so I can't confirm that. But this latency data was shared in some of the slides that were made public. So Tesla's protocol over ethernet, which is purpose built for ethernet connected compute, is certainly something to stow away for the months and years ahead. Share this with anybody you know out in Colorado, there's currently up to $18,500 in incentives available in the state if you buy an EV. This British organization Whatcar, which has been in operation for over five decades, is one of the biggest car buying brands in the UK. They just released their electric car awards for 2024 and the best electric executive car went to the new Tesla Model 3. Further in both the new and the used category the Model 3 was best in class. Whatcar has also said the Model Y long range was the best family electric SUV for long trips and that the Tesla Supercharger Network won the Technology Award due to its reliability and ease of use. If you'd like to see the winners of the other categories, I'll have this link below.
Finally, after two years, some states are actually moving when it comes to putting these nevy funds to good use for EV charging. The Arizona Department of Transportation has selected firms to build 18 fast charging stations. They did say construction is expected to take a year to complete after the contracts are signed, but some stations are set to open late 2025. Most of these will be located at existing gas stations and travel centers, with some at restaurants or hotels. But the deal breaker here, if you ask me and the main reason I wanted to share, these stations will be equipped with CCS plugs. Somebody explained to me why every government program gets stuck in the past. Nearly all of the EV industry has already chosen to move to NACS for the future. I mean, even if you wanted to do half NACS and half CCS, I guess I would understand as we go through this bridge period, but all CCS just makes no sense. Every station will include at least four nevy compliant chargers, with some having as many as seven.
GM has decided to delay the start of production at its planned battery plant in Indiana by roughly one year back to 2027. However, as part of this announcement, they did say they formalized the plans to move forward with this $3.5 billion factory in New Carlisle, Indiana. Don't forget GM already operates two joint venture battery plants in the US with LG in both Ohio and Tennessee. And those two through the Altium platform have a third one that's supposed to begin construction on sales by the end of this year in Michigan. Given GM's very slow rollout of Altium-based EVs, this delay really should come as a surprise to no one, but this factory in Indiana is expected to account for about 20% of GM's battery capacity in the US when it's actually up and running.
Every now and then, I'd like to check in on BYD's profit and for quarter to BYD's net profit hit $1.3 billion. I would note in this article, they shared BYD's gross margin of 23.9%, but that's not necessarily their auto gross margin, because in that figure, they include sales of autos and related products. For comparison, Tesla's net income in quarter two was $1.8 billion. Just a fun fact, over half of the cars sold in China are priced under $21,000. And BYD's global expansion is on overseas shipments accounted for 11.9% of BYD's total car sales in the first seven months of the year, nearly doubled the number for the same period last year. Now, without subsidies, would BYD still be profitable? It's a fair question. But look, in fairness, Tesla's benefiting from subsidies as well, so its profitability would also be lower without subsidies.
Polestar just put out a press release saying that former CEO Thomas Ingenloth has resigned from the company. That will be effective October 1st of this year. And Michael Oshler, who has previously served as CEO of Opelvenfast and Nikola, brings a wealth of experience to be the new CEO of Polestar. Ingenloth said, I'm very proud of what we've achieved together in the last seven years. We made Polestar the only true global premium electric brand. I wish Michael and the team the best for the next chapter of Polestar. I guess it's not a major surprise. The past few months have been quite challenging for Polestar. Volvo divested most of its ownership. Polestar has gone to banks for loans. They've had layoffs. They're focused on other cost cutting measures, which is a bummer because Polestar is my second favorite EV brand behind Tesla. I love their design and styling, but I think their cars are too expensive. And they're just not widely known in markets like the United States.
极星刚刚发布新闻稿,表示前 CEO 托马斯·英格拉特(Thomas Ingenlath)已辞职,并将于今年 10 月 1 日生效。而曾任欧宝(Opel)、VinFast 和尼古拉(Nikola)公司 CEO 的迈克尔·奥斯勒(Michael Oshler)将担任极星的新任 CEO,他将为公司带来丰富经验。英格拉特说:“我为过去七年我们共同取得的成就感到非常自豪。我们让极星成为了唯一真正的全球高端电动品牌。希望迈克尔和团队能在极星的下一个篇章中取得成功。”我猜这并不令人意外,过去几个月对极星来说相当具有挑战性。沃尔沃出售了他们的大部分股份,极星向银行贷款,还进行了裁员,并专注于其他削减成本的措施。这令人遗憾,因为极星是我仅次于特斯拉的第二喜欢的电动汽车品牌。我很喜欢他们的设计和造型,但我认为他们的车太贵了,而且在像美国这样的市场上知名度不高。
China's state media is obviously not happy with Canada. They just came out and criticized Canada over the 100% EV tariffs for imports from China. It said Canada is shooting itself in the foot by following the US protectionist policies. The country is being held hostage by America's unhealthy policies that will only create more barriers to free market circulation, leading to deeper negative impacts and unforeseen shocks on the domestic economy. China's Ministry of Commerce has also said that the move was a typical act of trade protectionism, and that Canada blatantly violated WTO rules and blindly followed certain other countries, namely the United States. China will likely challenge this move through the world trade organization like they have with the United States and Europe's moves, but that could take one to two years to play out.
In a first for Tesla, the city of Menlo Park put out this staff report, ultimately saying that they don't believe Tesla vehicles are the police cars of the future. To my knowledge, this would be the first time that a police department has not given positive reviews about the Model Y for its police fleet. This department in California said midway through this EV pilot for their fleet, two officers requested to be reassigned, citing a number of safety concerns with the vehicles. Officers using the Model Y's appreciated the acceleration, steering and vehicle speed compared to the hybrids, and remaining gas only patrol vehicles. However, the Tesla presented challenges due to the small interior space, the smart car features, and the low vehicle profile, limiting maneuverability.
The long range Model Y was chosen for the pilot over the Mach-E and other EVs due to the advertised range and the larger size. But once the Tesla was outfitted for patrol use, the partition between the front and the back seat limits the room in the front. When it comes to storage, some officers said they preferred the storage of the hybrid Ford Explorers. The Tesla does have a number of unique storage spaces including the front trunk and the under trunk storage, but they're more difficult to access. Here's a list of some of the smart car challenges they listed, I won't cover all of them, but they did talk about specifically the lighting controls and proximity locking.
The chart they shared was quite interesting comparing the hybrid Ford Explorer to the 2022 long range Model Y. As we talked about earlier, prices for Tesla back then were much higher unfortunately. You may notice the zero dollars for the ballistic panels on the hybrid Ford Explorer compared to $7500 for the Model Y. That's because the hybrid Ford Explorers can be upfitted to include ballistic door panels from the manufacturer, whereas the Teslas had to be sent to an additional outfitter. They said the total cost after outfitting for the hybrid Ford Explorer was over $7700, whereas for the Model Y was over $102,000.
Again though, my problem here is that if you run these numbers again with the prices of 2024 Model Y, it's going to be drastically different. I'd also note they shared the Tesla pilot revealed that the 7 kilowatt level 2 chargers would take about 11 hours to fully charge the Model Y. Thus, question number 1 becomes why are you using a 7 kilowatt charger? Toward the end, they said the police department has shared the Teslas are useful within the department for patrol and non-patrol operations, but do not appear to be the patrol cars of the future in their current configuration.
The department is hoping to deploy a Chevy Blazer EV as the next stage of this pilot by early 2025. In short, it largely came down to bad timing of the purchase of the Model Y's, and then what it took to outfit the vehicle for their specific needs and how the car would operate after the outfitting. Plus, some of the tech features in the Model Y weren't overly conducive again to their specific use cases. And here they outlined some of the challenges without fitting the Tesla that could be helpful to Tesla in the future, so hopefully somebody at the company sees this for the future.
该部门希望在2025年初,将一辆雪佛兰 Blazer 电动车作为这个试点项目的下一阶段。简而言之,主要问题是购买Model Y 时机不好,以及改装车辆以满足他们特定需求所需的时间和费用。此外,Model Y的一些技术功能也不太适合他们的特定使用场景。这里他们详细说明了改装特斯拉时遇到的一些挑战,这些反馈或许对特斯拉未来的发展有帮助,希望公司里有人看到这些建议。
I won't at all be surprised if the city of Menlo Park ends up swinging back around to a Tesla Model Y for its fleet in the future, especially if prices continued to come down. This was actually a pretty interesting read though, it's only 7 pages so I'll have it linked below. Tesla stock closed the day at $205.75 down 1.68% while the Nasdaq was down 1.12%. Polestar was down over 16% on the news of Ingenlot leaving. There was another quiet volume day for Tesla trading about 22 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Don't forget, check out Simply Safe linked below, take advantage of that discount if you're interested. It's a very modular system, you can start small, make sure you like it, and enjoy the UI, and you can always build on from there.
And truly, so far I've been very pleased with it. I hope you guys have a wonderful day, please like the video if you did, you can find me on X-Link's below, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.