Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Friday turned out to be a newsletter day and I'd encourage those of you that have not yet subscribed to do so so that we can all stay on the same page. As an example, in the future when I mentioned Tesla's quantized FSD version for Hardware 3, everybody will know what I mean if everyone's getting the newsletter. It's completely free and it's always linked below or you can head to electrifiednews.com.
I'm sure many of you have heard Tesla's referral program is indeed back, so as a buyer you can now get $1000 off your vehicle purchase if you use somebody's link, and as the referrer you can earn $500 for each referral up to 10 times per calendar year. And yes, once you hit that 10 referral mark for the calendar year, your link will no longer work, meaning the buyer will no longer get benefits. Right now, the only products that will qualify for these referral benefits are the Model S, 3X, and Y. These referrer benefits will be added to your Tesla credits, which you can now use for supercharging, a new vehicle purchase, which is new, any outstanding balance from a service appointment in the Tesla app or the Tesla shop or an upgrade purchase.
Ohio and Virginia residents are not eligible for the referrer benefits, but they do qualify for buyer and loyalty benefits. My understanding is that's not Tesla's fault, those are just state rules. Plus, you'll also have a chance to win an invitation to an upcoming Tesla event. If you're not seeing the new referrer and earn tab on your Tesla app, just make sure you update it, that should fix the problem. And if you already own a qualifying Tesla product, the loyalty program is back, meaning you can get $1000 off your purchase of a Model S, 3X or Y.
Just so you know, there are people out there that recently placed an order that are now canceling, and they're eating that non-refundable $250 payment so that they can get the $1000 loyalty award for buying a new Tesla vehicle. Cyber truck excluded. I'm sure that will create some headaches for Tesla in the weeks ahead, but it certainly will not be a long-term problem. It looks like at least so far, this is for the United States only. Given that this new program is capped to 10 referrals per calendar year, there will no longer be a strong incentive for anyone to run ads sneakily using their referral link.
But despite the cap, you can still earn up to $5000 per year, and you can use that to buy a new Tesla vehicle, which is pretty awesome. And the word is that this can indeed be stacked with the $1000 military discount as well. If you're an Android user, you may need to go through the website version for now. There are plenty of great Tesla creators and fans out there for you to support, so don't let anybody in your circle of influence by a Tesla without using a valid link. I will have mine in the description below if you need one, and if I do hit the limit, I'll be sure to remove it, and once I hear about the rules for helping others get their links out there, I'll see what I can do for our community on that front.
And this does mean with each new purchase, Tesla will be giving $1500 in benefits, but one third of that will be coming back to Tesla in some way, shape, or form. But still, this will be a slight margin headwind overall, but if it drives more sales, you can obviously have higher overall profits with lower margins if sales increase enough. There are some new release notes for Update 2024.32. This is a very early look, so there may be even more updates than this, but one, the navigation will now show relevant construction zones along your route.
There will be predictive text for when you're searching the navigation bar, just like you're familiar with on Google and YouTube. Your vehicle will suggest search terms in addition to locations as you enter text in the navigation search bar. And there will be a search this area function. You'll be able to refine a navigation search when you zoom in or drag to a different area of the map by tapping search this area when prompted. So instead of getting results for something hundreds of miles away, with this option, you'll get results for things local to where you are. You'll also be notified in the mobile app when you need tire service.
There's also a chance that SiriusXM radio will be coming to your Tesla natively in the near future. I say there's a chance though, because SiriusXM has already taken down the page that had instructions for getting this in your Tesla. And the word is this would be a streaming version of Sirius not one dependent on satellites, meaning the entire sexy lineup and the Cybertruck would be eligible to get Sirius. The streaming version does have more channels, but it's expected to require Tesla's premium connectivity. Pricing could be somewhere between $17 and $29 per month.
But if you've ever had Sirius before, you may know that if you call to cancel, they typically will give you a better deal for up to a year. Sirius is still quite popular in certain circles, like live sports, so it'll be nice to have the option if indeed this does come with a future software update. Canada has decided to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese made electric vehicles and 25% on steel and aluminum. The surtax on EVs will take effect on October 1st, and this is in addition to an existing 6.1% tariff that applies to Chinese EVs. The levies on aluminum and steel will go into effect on October 15th, and the public can comment on this news until it's finalized on October 1st. Canada is also launching a new 30-day consultation on other sectors, including batteries and battery parts, semiconductors, solar and critical minerals. This isn't really a major surprise, given how reliant Canada is on the United States when it comes to exports.
The vast majority of Canada's light vehicle production, which last year was 1.5 million units, is actually exported to the US. The government will also limit eligibility for EV incentives to products made in countries that have negotiated free trade agreements with Canada. It plans to review the new levies within one year of them going into effect. Just some context, the value of Chinese EVs imported to Canada was $1.6 billion in 2023, which was an order of magnitude higher than where it was in 2022, which was largely thanks to Tesla importing the Model Y from Shanghai. But this move is really geared towards slowing down BYD and other Chinese companies, as BYD recently told lawmakers in Canada about its plans to enter the country. The way I see it, this really is just protectionism at its finest, as the Parliamentary Budget Office in Canada has estimated that the cost of government support for EV battery manufacturing for three companies, NorthVolt, VW and Stellantis, is going to be north of $43 billion over the next decade.
The Canadian government has packaged up this move as fighting back against the unfair Chinese practices of oversupply, but we all know if these Chinese EVs were allowed to freely flow into the Canadian market, the domestic players would be destroyed. The big question though is how is this going to impact Tesla? So far, Trudeau has not specified if the tariffs will be made lower for Tesla or if Tesla will be treated just like everybody else. We know Tesla's cost of manufacturing is much lower from China, which is why they've been exporting vehicles from China to Canada, but a 100% tariff would of course render those benefits irrelevant, forcing Tesla to export vehicles from the US to Canada, where Tesla's cost of manufacturing is indeed higher than Shanghai. There's at least a chance Canada gives Tesla a special lower tariff rate as a good will move to encourage Tesla to keep expanding operations in Canada, but they'll have to find a justification to do so if they want to go that route.
This will also likely end up as a slight margin headwind for Tesla given Canadian deliveries will now likely come from Fremont where manufacturing costs are higher, but when you factor in potentially lower shipping costs, it's tough to get a clean read on how this will really shake out. Let's not forget at one point, Trudeau said climate change is the greatest long-term threat we face as a global community, but we all know actions speak louder than words, so what Trudeau should have said back then was competition is the greatest long-term threat to Canada. And listen, I'm not just dunking on Canada here, I have the exact same feelings to the US doing the exact same thing. Elon shared some new video inside of Cortex-Tesla's new AI training supercomputer at Giga Texas. You'll notice a few things, you see the tiles here, and then when you go forward in the video, you will see this vented floor in this aisle and continuing on back to the tile. Now I'm not going to wildly speculate as to whether Tesla is using roll cooling or rack cooling or room cooling or some combination thereof, but if you look at this image, it'll give you a rough idea. Over the past decade, many data centers actually used this raised access floor for these data centers where you have these alternating rows and in between each you have these perforated panels.
This method effectively creates both cold isles and hot isles, and you can see the blue arrows that are under the raised access floor and how they would flow in this setup. So you would have the cold air flowing up and cooling the front of these computers and then you have the heat dissipating from the back where these will actually face each other again, creating those hot isles. Many of these flooring panels I found online are actually resistant to fires and they have a reflective coating, which really just helps to maximize the energy efficiency.
In prime Tesla fashion, you have this cardboard for that's apparently taped to the ceiling for this one row. It's tough to count how many bays are really in this video, but it's at least eight and likely a few more than that. And Tesla does have the doors on the rows that actually have the venting on the floor. And in between they have a row without a door which would likely be for the hot isles. That's where you see all of the cabling and you would expect much of the heat dissipation to be.
What this really means for Tesla though is this, if we look at this chart Tesla shared on their Q2 slide deck, we're currently right about here just before September. Tesla currently working with roughly 40,000 H100 equivalent GPUs. But in the next four months, this number is set to more than double for Tesla going to just shy of 90,000 H100 equivalents. Where this really starts to get interesting is remembering that Tesla released the end to end neural net version 12 around March of 2024 when they were below 30,000 H100 equivalents.
So the question should be asked what type of FSD product will Tesla be able to deliver in the next few months when their compute is three times higher than where it was when they launched FSD version 12. And it gets better replying to that chart Elon said they're also using Tesla's AI4 computer in the training loop with the Nvidia GPUs currently at a one to two ratio. That means around 90,000 H100 plus around 40,000 AI4 computers.
So the way I interpret that post from Elon, this chart does not include anything when it comes to AI4 being used for compute. Elon has previously said Cortex will be around 100,000 H100 and H200 with massive storage for video training of FSD and Optimus. And those numbers are also likely excluding Tesla's AI4 compute. For some context, Elon has said that $500 million is only equivalent to a 10,000 H100 system from Nvidia.
So barring any volume discounts, if you multiply both of these numbers by 10, that would be about $5 billion for a 100,000 H100 system. And we don't know if this is included in the data or not, but Elon said Dojo 1 will have roughly 8,000 H100 equivalent of training online by the end of this year. Which means by the end of this year, Dojo could be accounting for roughly 8% of Tesla's compute capacity.
But let's temper our expectations throughout the rest of this year and even the first half of 2025 because Elon has said it's very difficult bringing the 10,000 H100 cluster online. The uptime and performance are low at first, but then they improve with lots of work by Tesla and Nvidia. But as we've said, once all of this compute capacity is up and running at full speed, maybe we'll call it sometime quarter one, quarter two of 2025.
That should mean incredible things for the progress of FSD. I really think this is where things are going to start getting interesting again for Tesla. With the Robotaxy event around the corner and all of this compute coming online quickly, the next 12 months, we should see some pretty exciting updates from Tesla. The south extension at Gigatexis was a mudfield earlier this year and now all of this compute is being hooked up and it should drastically improve the performance of FSD and Optimus.
Which as we know are the next growth waves that Tesla is waiting for. Speaking of Cortex, our cerebral cortex handles things like learning, reasoning and problem solving. A study showed several dietary components have been identified as having effects on cognitive abilities by regulating neurotransmitter pathways, synaptic transmission and membrane fluidity. In short, it focused on the capacity of nutrients to affect neural pathways that are associated with synaptic plasticity.
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Ark Invest shared some data as of Friday last week showing autonomous ride run rates for Baidu, Waymo, Tesla and Cruise. Waymo currently leading the way at just over 5 million miles, which is an annualized figure. Baidu in second at roughly 3.5 million miles and then Tesla and Cruise down at zero, not currently offering autonomous rides. But then there's this chart that still seems to be widely misunderstood.
We have the autonomous miles in general run rate. Now in fairness, you can argue that Tesla doesn't really have any truly autonomous miles because it is all supervised right now and I do think that's a fair argument. But despite that supervision, most of the time FSD really is driving autonomously as we can all attest to. So annually, Baidu and Waymo don't even come close to 200 million miles per year, whereas Tesla is already over 1.8 billion miles per year. And we know this number is growing very quickly.
Tesla China has once again extended the 5-year 0% interest loan for new Model 3 and Y purchases in China until the end of September, which means yes, this offer will now be active throughout the duration of Quarter 3. Naturally, Gordon Johnson is out there spreading some FUD saying that this is going to be a nightmare for Tesla's margins in Quarter 3 because this offer was only available for a portion of Quarter 2. But if you go back and look it up, you'll see this 0% interest loan for up to 5 years in China actually started early April this year. Thus, it was actually in effect for a majority of Quarter 2 as well.
And just to prove my earlier point, if you do 100 million in sales at a 25% margin, that's $25 million. But compare that to if you do $150 million in sales at a 20% margin, that's still a higher overall profit at $30 million. So yes, this move is a slight margin headwind, but again, margins should not be the be-all and-all. The glaring problem with all of this is we'll never know what Tesla sales would have been without this incentive in China. Holmar said it's weird you cannot use the Cybertruck power outlets while charging kind of an annoying limitation.
Wes did provide a slight hope saying there are several power stages in the AC to DC converter, so it may be possible to use one to charge at a limited rate while simultaneously providing grid generation at a limited rate. But he did say it would require fancy triaging from the controls which takes time to develop. He said when you supercharge, you're putting DC voltage directly to the high voltage battery, so it does not use the power converter hardware, which is why you can use onboard power while supercharging. That's because the AC to DC converter used to take grid AC and convert it to DC to charge the high voltage battery is the same hardware used to generate the AC you use for your onboard power.
Wes said if you're charging with AC power, you likely can plug whatever needs power into the same grid supplying power for the truck. Which yes, is kind of a cop-out, but at least now we know why those AC charging limitations for using the onboard power actually exist. That may be fixed in the future, but it sounds like a difficult task. Wes also said the team is considering a stuck detection feature to give drivers a pop-up suggestion when they get stuck in the Cybertruck with ideas on how to get unstuck. Things like air down the tires, try using trail assist, raise the ride height, try sand mode, etc.
Before the Cybertruck ever came out, we shared the reminder that early adopters will likely be facing some early challenges with the vehicle. Techie Dany shared on X that her 48 volt battery in her Cybertruck bit the dust after 6000 miles on the dual motor variant. Now it'll be fixed under warranty and she still made it very clear she loves the vehicle, but it's not perfect in the early days. Things like this are always why I'm constantly saluting all of the early adopters out there. On the brighter side, Tesla Vision Park Assist has finally launched for the Cybertruck. And as a reminder for FSD on the Cybertruck, the timeline is expected to be in September.
There was a fire at Rivians factory in Illinois over the weekend, but so far no reports of injuries and the cause of the fire is still being investigated. The fire was in the parking lot and the assembly plant was unaffected. Today the word is that 50 Rivian vehicles in the parking lot have been destroyed. Porsche has wisely said they will not be creating fake gear changing noises for their electric vehicles. They said obviously we look into what the competition does, but our perspective on this is always why should we make something worse. The electric engine is better than ice, so we figured there's no reason to simulate what has been in the past. This one was from last week, but a quick shout out to Hyundai and the IONIQ 5 as it just won Car & Driver's 2024 EV of the year. Heinrich Zane gave us a quick teaser that the Tesla Semi-Factory in Nevada has finally gone vertical.
As a response to some of the vehicle fires in South Korea recently, the government just agreed to move up an EV battery certification program. The government will start the battery certification in October earlier than scheduled to help guarantee the safety of EV batteries. The government is also now requiring automakers operating in the country to identify batteries used in their EVs. Popular travel stop loves has broke ground on next-generation EV charging stations in New York. Each location will have two dual port level 3 DC fast chargers. Groundbreaking on four, heavy-funded charging stations in Pennsylvania and four in Kentucky will start this year, and then they're expecting to begin construction in 13 different states in 2025. Here's a quick look at what those stations will look like.
Today, a Federal Appeals Court has revived a Tesla lawsuit in which they're fighting Louisiana's ban on direct vehicle sales. The Court of Appeals in New Orleans reversed a lower court judge's dismissal of Tesla's lawsuit. Tesla had accused various defendants of exploiting their control of the Motor Vehicle Commission to drive Tesla from the market by targeting its sales model. Tesla accused Louisiana officials of illegally banning direct sales since 2017 and restricting the leasing and servicing of its vehicles in the state. The Circuit Judge wrote Tesla sufficiently alleged the defendants had plausible actual bias, citing emails from the Commission's Executive Director assuring Tesla rivals that their complaints would be addressed. Certainly a step in the right direction for Tesla here, but the Appeals Court returned the case to US District Judge Sarah Vance in New Orleans who dismissed it back in June 2023. At least for now, Tesla has a fighting chance to clear the way for its direct sales in Louisiana.
Tesla stock closed the day at $213.21 down 3.23% while the Nasdaq was down 0.85%. It was a lower volume day for Tesla trading about 29 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Don't forget for anybody interested, check out AG1 linked below. Thank you in advance as always if you do. Hope you guys have a wonderful day, please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.