Charles Payne Show August 23, 2024

Secretary of Macros.com, CIO Joseph Wong-Joe. The Fed is the Fed to data dependent at this point. So absolutely, Charles, like you mentioned, and as you have been saying, and many of your guests have been saying, the labor market has been slowing significantly over the past few months. We had unemployment rate jump to 4.3%, and historically that means that it's gonna go a lot higher. Now the Fed should have been cutting rates far before today. After all, inflation is only a little bit above their 2% target. Now they target PCE and PCE is about 2.7%. There's really no reason for rates to be at multi-decade highs. But thankfully though, it looks like Chair Powell is finally listening to you because today Chair Powell clearly pivoted. Now the market has been suspecting this for some time, but he's clearly signaling that they're gonna cut rates starting in September, but it's a bit of a mystery how much and to what extent. That I think we're gonna have to wait until the September jobs market report.

Macros.com的秘书兼首席信息官 Joseph Wong-Joe 表示，美联储在当前阶段高度依赖数据。因此，Charles，就像你提到的，并且你和许多你的嘉宾所提到的一样，过去几个月劳动力市场确实在显著放缓。失业率已经跳升到4.3%，从历史角度看，这意味着失业率可能会更高。事实上，美联储应该早在今天之前就开始降息，毕竟通胀率仅比其2%的目标略高。美联储主要关注个人消费支出（PCE），目前PCE约为2.7%。没有理由把利率维持在数十年来的高位。但幸运的是，看起来主席鲍威尔终于在听取你的意见，因为今天他明显改变了态度。市场早就有这种预期，但他明确表示，从9月开始将会降息。不过，降息幅度和程度仍然是个谜，可能要等到9月的就业市场报告公布后才能知晓。

Okay, and by the way, and to that point, you may get some adjustments on jobs and they talk about the hurricane thing, but we know historically that jobs start to slow and then they start to then they fall off a cliff. And I think the Fed's understanding that, but there was one part that you took issue, it seems like with J. Powell, taking credit for keeping inflation expectations anchored. Why shouldn't he get the credit? Well, honestly, so let's rewind a little bit. Two years ago, Chair Powell was at Jackson Hall and he told everyone he's gonna raise rates a lot, cause a recession, unemployment's gonna go back up, go up and inflation will come down. But none of that really happened, right? I mean, so far the economy seems to be okay. Now he talks about his job, so we're not really sure what the Fed did to get inflation down. Now Chair Powell was claiming that he kept inflation expectations stable, but the truth is when people polled the American public, most people have no idea what the Fed does. So the Fed obviously can't keep inflation expectations stable. And that's on Wall Street, by the way. That's not even Main Street, that's Wall Street. Who the hell, what do they do and who they're accountable to?

好的，顺便提一下，关于你刚刚说的，你可能会在工作上遇到一些调整，他们提到了飓风的影响，但我们历史上知道，工作开始放缓，然后就会急剧下降。我想美联储对此是有理解的，但是有一点你似乎对J. Powell有所质疑，他声称自己在保持通胀预期稳定方面有功。为什么他不应该得到这份荣誉呢？其实，让我们倒回去看看。两年前，主席Powell在杰克逊霍尔会议上告诉大家他将大幅加息，引发衰退，失业率会上升，通胀会下降。但这些都没有真正发生，对吧？到目前为止，经济似乎还不错。现在他谈论他的工作，所以我们不太确定美联储做了什么来降低通胀。现在Powell声称他保持了通胀预期的稳定，但事实是，当人们调查美国公众时，大多数人根本不知道美联储在做什么。所以很明显，美联储是不可能保持通胀预期稳定的。而这是在华尔街，不是在普通街区。那么，他们是做什么的？他们对谁负责？

So speaking of, I believe, the house shocked you, I worry you when you saw those Fed minutes and the Fed themselves said they haven't trouble, believe in economic data, particularly employment data. Well, actually I feel very comforted by that. That means the Fed officials are smarter than we thought they were. No, that's the unemployment data. It is a little bit suspicious. And as we saw recently, it was revised down substantially. And now I think that probably feeds into the review that they're probably over tightening and they got to cut ASAP, which they will do in September. Joe, before I let you go, let's send them in and go. You've been posting some good information about the election. One thing you said is that VP Harris, that all the plans that she's put out there for right now, they're a recipe for stagflation. Explain to the audience why that's not good because a lot of folks have never lived through that.

说到这个，我相信那栋房子让你感到很震惊。我还担心你看到那些联邦储备会议记录时会担心，因为联邦储备自己也说他们很难相信经济数据，尤其是就业数据。实际上，我对此感到很安慰。这意味着联邦储备官员比我们想象的更聪明。那些失业数据确实有点可疑。正如我们最近所看到的，它被大幅下调了。我认为这可能意味着他们认为紧缩政策过度了，并且他们必须尽快降息，预计会在九月进行。Joe，在结束之前，我们再花点时间来讨论一下执政党的政策。你一直在发布一些关于选举的有用信息。你提到副总统哈里斯目前提出的所有计划会导致滞胀。请向观众解释一下为什么这不好，因为很多人从未经历过滞胀。

Now, stagflation is awful. It's when the price of everything you pay for continues to go up and you have trouble finding a job. So it's a double whammy and American people would suffer in a stagflation scenario. Now, I think going forward, whether or not we have a recession, it's less about what the Fed does and a lot more about what happens in November. Because these two candidates have very, very different visions of how the world looks. Now, President Trump would like to cut taxes. He wants the stock market to go higher. Now, vice versa and Harris, she suggested, raising taxes may be controlling how much you have to pay for something, how much a business can charge for their products. Now, that we've tried over and over again throughout history as early as the Roman times and that has always led to shortages in higher prices. So I think that what happens in November is going to determine whether or not we have a recession or how deep the recession is going forward. So that's where I will be watching.

现在，滞胀是非常糟糕的。当你支付的所有东西的价格持续上涨，而你又难以找到工作时，这就是双重打击，美国人民将在这种情况下受苦。不管我们将来是否会出现经济衰退，这与美联储的操作关系不大，而更多地取决于11月发生的事情。因为这两位候选人对世界的看法有很大的不同。 现任总统特朗普希望削减税收，并希望股市上涨。而哈里斯副总统建议，可能通过提高税收来控制你的支付成本，以及企业对其产品的定价。然而，历史上自罗马时期以来，这种办法总是导致短缺和更高的价格。因此，我认为11月发生的事情将决定我们是否会经历经济衰退或衰退的深度。所以这将是我关注的重点。

Good stuff, John. We'll be watching you. Thank you so much, my friend. Thanks, Charles.

好东西，约翰。我们会关注你的。非常感谢，我的朋友。谢谢你，查尔斯。