The ULTIMATE Wyckoff Trading Course - YouTube
发布时间 2023-02-10 20:00:05 来源
Welcome to the ultimate Wyckoff trading course. In this course, you will learn the basics of this trading approach. If you are new to the channel, please consider clicking the like button and subscribing right now as this helps support the channel. We start by realizing that in trading, the odds of success are not particularly great for the vast majority of people. The small retail trader is competing in a way, with other large traders who have much more knowledge, more experience, more capital, better trading tools, better access to information, not to mention a greater capacity to analyze this information. Perhaps more importantly, for the purposes of this course, large, well-informed traders have a deeper understanding of trading psychology and the capacity to use this understanding against the uninformed retail traders. It's an asymmetric game to say the least. The logical step for the retail trader is to trade with the large traders rather than against them.
欢迎来到终极威科夫交易课程。在本课程中，你将学习这种交易方法的基础知识。如果你是第一次访问这个频道，请考虑点个赞并立即订阅，因为这有助于支持频道的发展。
我们首先要认识到，在交易中，对于绝大多数人来说，成功的概率并不是特别高。小型散户交易者在某种程度上是在与其他拥有更多知识、经验、资金、更好交易工具以及信息获取渠道的大型交易者竞争。更不用说这些大型交易者还有更强的信息分析能力。
也许更重要的是，对于本课程的目的来说，大型且消息灵通的交易者对交易心理有更深入的理解，并能利用这种理解来对付缺乏信息的散户交易者。可以说，这是一场不对称的游戏。对于散户交易者来说，最合理的步骤是与大型交易者一起交易，而不是与他们对抗。
The Wyckoff methodology is based on the identification of what the large traders are doing using a logical approach, which can empower the retail trader to avoid being an easy prey for the large traders and to be on the right side of the market along with the well-informed traders. The hallmark of the Wyckoff methodology is the use of logic to understand the actions and footprints of well-informed traders in the market. It is also a more flexible trading approach in comparison to the Dell theory and the L8 Wave theory, for example. Before we dive into the method, it's important we understand where it came from first. Richard Wyckoff was born in 1873. During the time he worked as a broker, he was able to observe how large traders behaved by watching the charts and the tape.
威科夫方法基于通过逻辑方法识别大交易者的行为，从而使散户交易者避免成为大交易者的猎物，并与消息灵通的交易者站在市场的正确一边。威科夫方法的标志是使用逻辑来理解消息灵通的交易者在市场上的行为和痕迹。与德尔理论和L8波浪理论相比，它也是一种更灵活的交易方法。在我们深入研究这个方法之前，首先需要了解它的起源。理查德·威科夫出生于1873年。在他作为经纪人的工作期间，他通过观察图表和交易记录，能够看到大交易者的行为。
According to Wyckoff, the movements of the market could be anticipated through its own action because the steps of large traders believed footprints in the charts and tape. Richard Wyckoff became a Wall Street superstar after his success with his own methodology. The method is based on a logical approach to reading the markets and you realize on ideas like supply and demand, cause and effect, effort and result in a detailed account of how the well-informed traders act in the market. The enthusiasts of the Wyckoff method believe that understanding the mechanics of market manipulation is the true key for the traders' evolution. That said, as we begin learning the Wyckoff method with the four phases of price action, most of what we are going to see later is built on this first idea.
根据威科夫的观点，市场的走势可以通过自身的行为预测，因为大交易者在图表和交易数据中留下了踪迹。理查德·威科夫在成功应用自己的方法后，成为华尔街的明星。该方法基于逻辑性的市场解读，依赖于供需关系、因果关系和努力与结果的理念，详尽地描述了信息丰富的交易者如何在市场中行动。威科夫方法的爱好者相信，理解市场操纵的机制是交易者进步的真正关键。话虽如此，当我们开始学习威科夫方法的四个价格行为阶段时，我们之后看到的大部分内容都基于这个最初的理念。
We start with the idea that price action moves in waves. These waves have a fractal nature, meaning that up and down movements repeat inside themselves across all scales. This is the same idea built in the LA wave theory, where the 5-3 wave pattern repeats inside itself in multiple degrees. In the Wyckoff method, however, there is no rule about how many waves a trend should have precisely. There is, however, a guideline about the general structure of how market waves develop. This leads us to the idea of four phases of price action. The four phases are accumulation, uptrend, distribution, downtrend, and the mechanics behind these four phases is explained by the supply and demand and the concept of path of least resistance.
我们从价格行为以波动的形式移动这一观点开始。这些波动具有分形性质，意味着上下波动会在所有尺度上自我重复。这与艾略特波浪理论中的概念类似，5-3波形模式在不同级别都会自我重复。然而，在威科夫方法中，并没有规定一个趋势应包含多少波。尽管如此，威科夫方法对市场波动的一般结构提供了指导。这引出了四个价格动作阶段的概念。这四个阶段是：积累、上升趋势、分配和下降趋势。这四个阶段的运作机制由供需和最小阻力路径的概念解释。
An accumulation happens at the beginning of an uptrend. Vires will accumulate positions until they are certain that there is no significant supply in their way. That way they can create the uptrend more freely. When there is sufficient accumulation, the path of least resistance is to the upside. Note that the expression path of least resistance simply means the easiest path. When there is too much demand and not a lot of supply, the easiest path the price can take is up. That is what creates an uptrend after an accumulation phase according to the Wyckoff methodology. One important detail here is that an uptrend is not necessarily followed by a distribution. There is the possibility of a re-accumulation phase where buyers will accumulate positions in order to free space to the upside so that the uptrend can continue. This means that there isn't a set number of waves in an uptrend like there is on the Elliot wave theory.
在上升趋势的开始会发生积累。Vires会在确认没有显著供应阻碍的情况下积累仓位。这样他们就可以更自由地创建上升趋势，当足够积累之后，阻力最小的路径是向上。请注意，“阻力最小路径”简单来说就是最容易的路径。当需求过大而供应稀少时，价格最容易选择向上走。这就是根据Wyckoff方法学在积累阶段之后形成上升趋势的原因。一个重要的细节是，紧随上升趋势之后不一定会出现分配。可能会出现一个重新积累的阶段，在这个阶段，买家会继续积累仓位，以便为进一步的上升腾出空间，从而使上升趋势能够继续。这意味着上升趋势中没有固定的波数，这点与艾略特波理论不同。
Notice also that this idea of accumulation and distribution is the same found in the Dow theory. We can state that the Wyckoff methodology is to some degree an evolution of the Dow theory. A distribution phase happens when buyers believe that the uptrend has gone too far and our sellers will become the dominant player. The logic is exactly the same for the downtrend. Sellers will sell until there is no significant demand in their way. This ensures that the path of least resistance for price is to the downside. Just like there exists the possibility of a re-accumulation, there is the possibility of a redistribution only for the downtrend to continue further. The accumulation and distribution are ranging market phases while the uptrend and downtrend are trending market phases.
请注意，这种所谓的“积累”和“分配”的概念与道氏理论中的相同。我们可以说，Wyckoff方法论在某种程度上是道氏理论的一种进化。分配阶段发生在买家认为上升趋势已经走得太远，而卖家将成为市场主导力量的时候。相同的逻辑也适用于下降趋势。卖家会持续卖出，直到他们面前没有显著的需求为止。这确保了价格最小阻力的路径是向下的。就像存在再积累的可能性一样，也可能会有再分配的情况，从而使下降趋势进一步延续。积累和分配是市场处于盘整阶段的现象，而上升趋势和下降趋势是市场处于趋势阶段的现象。
There are mainly three types of scenarios, the uptrend, the downtrend and the sideways market. An uptrend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is characterized by lower highs and lower lows. And a sideways market is characterized by flat highs and flat lows. The sideways market can be subdivided into five types. Flat highs and flat lows can mean an accumulation, a re-accumulation, a distribution, a redistribution, a redistribution or a random range, which is just a sideways market that doesn't necessarily function as an accumulation or distribution.
主要有三种市场情形：上升趋势、下降趋势和平盘市场。上升趋势的特点是高点不断提高，低点也在不断提高。下降趋势的特点是高点和低点都在不断降低。平盘市场的特点是高点和低点都保持平稳。
平盘市场可以进一步细分为五种类型。高点和低点的平稳可能表示积累、再积累、分配、再分配，或者就是一个随机区间，这个区间不一定是为了积累或分配而存在的。
Let's now study the fundamental laws behind the Wyckoff method, which are of great importance for the comprehension of market context. One of the fundamental laws used in Wyckoff methodology is the law of supply and demand, which is one of the most reliable economic principles. If you want to go deeper into the study of supply and demand, you can watch the Ultimate Beginner's Guide to Supply and Demand in the video card or video description. The law of supply and demand states that the market price will always seek an equilibrium state, which is the point where the supply and demand curves intersect.
现在让我们研究Wyckoff方法背后的基本规律，它们对于理解市场背景非常重要。Wyckoff方法使用的一个基本规律是供求法则，这是最可靠的经济原则之一。如果你想更深入地研究供求关系，可以观看视频卡或视频描述中的《供求关系终极初学者指南》。供求法则指出，市场价格总是会寻求一个平衡状态，也就是供求曲线相交的点。
Let's observe a hypothetical example of supply and demand curves to develop a geometric intuition about why price rises when there is more demand and why price falls when there is more supply. Imagine for simplicity's sake that we are talking about a simple good like apples, for example. The law of demand states that the higher the price of something, the less buyers will be willing to get it. In the graph, we have price on the vertical axis and the quantity on the horizontal axis. As the price of apples rise, the quantity demanded of apples will decrease so the demand curve is down-sloping. Make sure you truly understand that before moving forward.
让我们观察一个关于供需曲线的假设例子，以便对价格在需求增加时上涨、在供应增加时下跌的原因形成几何直观。为了简化起见，假设我们在讨论一种像苹果这样的简单商品。需求定律指出，某物品的价格越高，买家就越不愿意购买它。在图表中，纵轴表示价格，横轴表示数量。随着苹果价格的上升，苹果的需求量会减少，因此需求曲线是向下倾斜的。在继续之前，请确保你真正理解这一点。
The law of supply states that the higher the price, the more sellers will be willing to sell it. In our example, the higher the price of apples, the more sellers will be willing to sell it in order to make a greater profit. So the supply curve is up-sloping. Notice that there is always a tension between supply and demand as they have opposite interests. The law of supply and demand states that a market will always see clinical equilibrium, which is the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. This is the point of agreement between buyers and sellers.
供给法则表明，价格越高，卖家就越愿意出售商品。在我们的例子中，苹果的价格越高，卖家就越愿意出售苹果以获取更大的利润。因此，供给曲线是向上的。请注意，供给和需求之间总是存在一种紧张关系，因为它们的利益是相反的。供需法则表明，市场总会达到一种平衡状态，也就是供给曲线和需求曲线相交的点。这是买卖双方达成一致的点。
This point of agreement can be represented by a price. To understand how prices might rise or fall, we need to observe what happens when there is a shift in demand or a shift in supply. For example, imagine that a scientific paper is published claiming that apples are good for people's health in a way that has not been anticipated before. This will cause buyers to be willing to buy more apples for the same price. In other words, there will be a shift in demand. Geometrically, this is represented by the demand curve going to the right. This movement of the demand curve to the right causes the point of equilibrium to move up along the supply curve to meet the new intersection.
这一点上的共识可以用一个价格来表示。要理解价格为何会上涨或下跌，我们需要观察当需求或供给发生变化时会发生什么。例如，假设有一篇科学论文发表，声称苹果对人们的健康有一种以前未预料到的好处。这将导致买家愿意以同样的价格购买更多的苹果。换句话说，这将引起需求的变化。从几何角度看，这表现为需求曲线向右移动。需求曲线向右移动导致平衡点沿着供给曲线向上移动，以达到新的交点。
This is what ultimately makes price rise since the new point of equilibrium is above the previous one. Following the same logic, an increase in supply for whatever reason will cause the supply curve to move to the right since sellers will be willing to sell more apples at the same given price. The shift to the right forces the point of equilibrium to move down along the demand curve to meet the new intersection. This is what ultimately makes price fall since the new point of equilibrium is below the previous one.
这正是导致价格最终上涨的原因，因为新的平衡点高于之前的那个。根据同样的逻辑，无论出于何种原因，供应的增加将使供应曲线向右移动，因为卖方愿意在相同的价格下出售更多的苹果。向右的移动迫使平衡点沿着需求曲线向下移动，以满足新的交点。这正是导致价格最终下降的原因，因为新的平衡点低于之前的那个。
Notice that price can rise due to an increase in demand or a decrease in supply and fall due to an increase in supply or a decrease in demand. This is the mechanics behind price movement. The asymmetry between supply and demand is not exactly a function of the number of buyers and sellers in the market. It's a function of their integrated power. For example, 10 powerful buyers can generate more demand than 1,000 weak sellers can generate supply. That's why powerful traders can influence the market in certain situations. At this point, it's useful to differentiate between two different types of supply or demand. There are aggressive orders, which are basically market orders. They represent aggressive supply or demand. There are also passive orders, which are limit orders. They represent passive supply or demand.
注意，价格可能由于需求增加或供应减少而上涨，也可能由于供应增加或需求减少而下跌。这就是价格变动的机制。供需之间的不对称性，不完全取决于市场上买卖双方的数量，而是取决于它们的综合力量。例如，10个强有力的买家可能会产生比1000个弱小的卖家更大的需求。这就是为什么有实力的交易者在某些情况下能够影响市场。在这一点上，有必要区分两种不同类型的供应或需求。第一种是激进订单，基本上是市场订单，代表着激进的供应或需求。第二种是被动订单，即限价订单，代表着被动的供应或需求。
Aggressive supply or demand is what can in fact generate price movement. Value of supply or demand cannot generate price movements, but it can stop it or slow it down. So for price to move up, buyers have to display the initiative to buy at market. The limit orders from sellers can only slow down this process, but they cannot bring price down. In other words, if the aggressive demand is greater than the passive supply, the market will rise. For price to move down, sellers have to display the initiative to sell at market. The limit orders from buyers can only slow down this process, but they cannot bring price up. Take a look at this table. This is called the order book. Here we can see the buy and sell orders at the different price levels. On the left, we have buy orders in the bid column, and on the right, we have the sell orders in the ask column. Right now, this hypothetical market is currently priced at $50. For price to move up to $51, buyers have to absorb all these sell orders at $50, which in this case is equal to $49.
攻击性供给或需求实际上是可以产生价格波动的因素。供给或需求的价值不能产生价格波动，但可以阻止或减缓波动。所以，价格要上涨，买家必须主动在市场上购买。卖方的限价单只能减慢这个过程，但不能把价格拉低。换句话说，如果攻击性需求大于被动供应，市场就会上涨。要使价格下跌，卖家必须主动在市场上出售。买家的限价单只能减慢这个过程，但不能把价格推高。看一下这张表，这叫做订单簿。在这里我们可以看到不同价格水平的买卖订单。左边是买入订单，在买价栏中；右边是卖出订单，在卖价栏中。目前，这个假设市场的价格是50美元。要使价格上升到51美元，买家必须消耗掉50美元的所有卖单，这里相当于49美元。
The same logic also works on the opposite direction. If sellers want to drive the market down, they need to absorb the demand on the way down. Notice that they higher the price, the larger the number of sell orders. This is logical because they higher the price, the more overbought the market will be, so the more selling pressure there will be. The same happens on the way down. The lower the price, the greater the perception of an oversold market, so the greater the buying pressure. By observing limit orders in the bid and ask columns of the order book, we can identify lack of interest. A lack of interest of buyers occurs when the number of orders in the bid column is generally smaller in multiple levels than the levels in the ask column. By the same token, a lack of interest of sellers occurs when the number of orders in the ask column is generally smaller in multiple levels than the levels in the bid column. It's important to realize that for every buy order, there must be a counterpart on the other side. The same is true for a sell order. For orders to be executed, buyers and sellers have to agree with the current price. Recall that the market can move up or down by an aggressive approach from buyers or sellers, but there is another scenario that is worth knowing called absorption, which is when one side of the market blocks another using limit orders.
相同的逻辑也适用于反方向。如果卖家想要压低市场，他们需要在下跌过程中吸纳需求。请注意，价格越高，卖单的数量就越大。这是合乎逻辑的，因为价格越高，市场越容易超买，所以卖压越大。这种情况在回调时也一样。价格越低，市场超卖的感觉就越强，所以买压越大。通过观察订单簿中买入价和卖出价两列的限价订单，我们可以识别出兴趣缺乏的情况。当买入价列中的订单数量在多个层次上普遍少于卖出价列时，说明买方缺乏兴趣。同样，当卖出价列中的订单数量在多个层次上普遍少于买入价列时，说明卖方缺乏兴趣。重要的是要意识到，每一个买入订单都必须有一个相应的卖出订单，反之亦然。为了订单能够执行，买家和卖家必须同意当前的价格。请记住，市场可以通过买家或卖家的激进行动向上或向下波动，但还有另一种情况值得了解，那就是吸收，即市场的一方通过限价订单阻止另一方。
For example, for price to move up, buyers have to aggressively place market orders, and it can only go up if it consumes the available supply in each price level. Sellers can absorb the demand by placing limited orders to block the possibility of price coming up. The opposite scenario where buyers absorb supply to block a downward movement is also possible, of course. For example, take a look at this scenario. From the $50 to $54 price level, there is a lack of selling interest, which would create a path of least resistance to the upside. However, in price levels 55 and 56, there is a large number of limit orders. If buyers want to drive the market up, they will have to consume this unusually large supply. This is one of the ways that large traders can act in the market. They can absorb supply or demand in strategic points. Notice that price levels with large number of orders inevitably create high volume and narrow range in the price chart. Here you can see a hypothetical example of supply absorption. Notice how in the highlighted market levels, there is an unusually large number of orders on the demand side. If sellers want to drive the market down past these levels, they will need a lot of aggressive supply. So this is an attempt to block sellers by using passive demand.
例如，要使价格上涨，买家必须积极地下达市场订单，同时只有在每个价格水平上的可用供给被耗尽时，价格才能上升。卖家可以通过设置限价订单来吸收需求，从而阻止价格上升。当然，买家也可以吸收供给，阻止价格下跌。
举个例子，从50美元到54美元的价格区间，卖方兴趣寥寥，这就形成了一个上涨的低阻力路径。然而，在55美元和56美元的价格区间，有大量的限价订单。如果买家想要推动市场上涨，他们必须消耗掉这些异常大量的供给。这是大交易者在市场中可能采取的行动方式之一：他们可以在战略点吸收供给或需求。注意，大量订单所在的价格区间在价格图表上往往会表现出高成交量和窄幅波动。
这里可以看到一个假设的供给吸收例子。注意在高亮显示的市场区间，需求方的订单数量异常庞大。如果卖方想要把市场价格压低到这些水平以下，他们需要大量积极的供给。因此，这是通过被动需求来阻止卖方的尝试。
In the Wyckoff method, we use price section and volume in order to understand what's happening between buyers and sellers. Aggressive and passive supply and demand maneuvers like we can see in the hypothetical order book examples in here are reflected in the analysis of price and volume. This will be outlined later in the course. For now, let's move on to the second fundamental law, which is the law of cause and effect. Another fundamental law of the Wyckoff methodology is the law of cause and effect, which is the idea of determinism. In the context of the method, the range is a cause and the trend that follows is the effect. One important detail is that effects are proportional to the size of causes.
在威科夫方法中，我们使用价格走势和成交量来理解买卖双方之间发生的情况。积极和被动的供需操作，例如我们在此处的假设订单簿示例中看到的，会反映在价格和成交量的分析中。这将在后续课程中详细介绍。现在，让我们继续讨论第二条基本法则，即因果法则。威科夫方法的另一条基本法则是因果法则，它包含了确定性的理念。在这个方法的背景下，区间是原因，而随后的趋势是结果。一个重要的细节是，结果与原因的规模成比例。
So a short accumulation causes a short trend and a long accumulation causes a long uptrend. A short distribution causes a short downtrend and a long distribution causes a long downtrend. This is useful for the projection of the trend duration based on how long the previous accumulation or distribution has been. These four phases of accumulation, uptrend, distribution and downtrend form what is called the Wyckoff cycle. An accumulation leads to an uptrend, then the market displays a distribution which leads to a downtrend. However, the market doesn't always change direction after an accumulation or distribution necessarily.
所以，短时间的积累会导致短暂的趋势，而长时间的积累会导致长期的上升趋势。短时间的分配会导致短暂的下降趋势，而长时间的分配会导致长期的下降趋势。这对于根据之前积累或分配的时间来预测趋势的持续时间非常有用。这四个阶段——积累、上升趋势、分配和下降趋势——组成了所谓的威科夫周期。积累阶段会引发上升趋势，随后市场会进入分配阶段，从而引发下降趋势。然而，市场并不总是在积累或分配之后马上改变方向。
Sometimes these phases simply don't occur. There are scenarios where the market simply reverses direction through what are called fast patterns, which come in four types. The climax, the double top or bottom, the pullback and the bull or bear trap. The climax is a fast reversal pattern marked by the complete absence of accumulation or distribution phases. The market simply goes from an uptrend directly to a downtrend or from a downtrend directly to an uptrend without much warning. This is analogous to the V-bottom and V-top patterns.
有时这些阶段根本不会发生。在某些情况下，市场会通过所谓的快速模式反转方向，这些模式有四种类型：高潮、双顶或双底、回撤和牛市或熊市陷阱。高潮是一种快速反转模式，其特点是完全没有积累或分配阶段。市场会直接从上涨趋势跳到下跌趋势，或从下跌趋势跳到上涨趋势，几乎没有任何预警。这类似于V底和V顶的模式。
The second fast pattern is the double top or double bottom, which are two famous reversal chart patterns. In the double bottom, the market will produce two lows at the same price level and then reverse to an uptrend. In the double top, the market will produce two highs at the same price level and then reverse to a downtrend. Notice that the double top or double bottom pattern has more sideways motion than a climax but not enough to be considered an accumulation or a distribution. The pullback is similar to the double top or bottom but the second drive fails to reach the same level of the first one.
第二种快速形态是“双顶”或“双底”，这是两种著名的反转图形。在“双底”中，市场会在同一价格水平形成两个低点，然后反转为上升趋势。而在“双顶”中，市场会在同一价格水平形成两个高点，然后反转为下降趋势。请注意，“双顶”或“双底”形态的横向运动更多，但还不足以被认为是积累或分配。回调形态类似于“双顶”或“双底”，但第二次回升未能达到第一次的同一水平。
The bullish pullback is marked by two higher lows while the bearish pullback is marked by two lower highs. In the bullish pullback, the fact that the market fails to meet the previous low is an indication of buying pressure while in the bearish pullback, the fact that the market fails to meet the previous high is an indication of selling pressure. The fourth fast reversal pattern is the bull or bear trap. The bullish reversal pattern is called bear trap because the market surpasses the previous low, giving the impression that it will continue to the downside, only to reverse significantly to the upside right after.
多头回调以两个更高的低点为标志，而空头回调以两个更低的高点为标志。在多头回调中，市场未触及之前的低点，表明存在买入压力；而在空头回调中，市场未触及之前的高点，表明存在卖出压力。第四种快速反转形态叫做牛市或熊市陷阱。在牛市反转形态中，这种情况被称为熊陷阱，因为市场突破了之前的低点，给人一种将继续下跌的假象，但随后却大幅反转向上。
In other words, sellers are tricked into believing that the market will fall and it's the name bear trap. The bearish reversal pattern is called bull trap because the market surpasses the previous high, giving the impression that it will continue to the upside, only to reverse significantly to the downside right after. In other words, buyers are tricked into believing that the market will rise and it's the name bull trap. Let's now look at another fundamental law in the Wyckoff method, which is the law of effort and result. Similar to the idea that causes perceived effects, the Wyckoff method also states that effort precedes results.
换句话说，卖家被误导认为市场会下跌，这种情况叫做“熊市陷阱”。“熊市反转”模式被称为“牛市陷阱”，因为市场超越了之前的高点，给人一种继续上涨的假象，但随后却大幅下跌。也就是说，买家被误导认为市场会上涨，这就是“牛市陷阱”的由来。现在我们来看Wyckoff方法中的另一条基本法则，即努力与结果的法则。与认为原因会导致表象效果的观点类似，Wyckoff方法也指出，努力在结果之前。
In the context of the method, the term effort means volume and the term result means price action. The reason for this is that price action should reflect the corresponding volume action. This is known as the harmony or convergence of price and volume. There are times, however, when price action doesn't reflect volume, which is known as divergence. One of the keys of the Wyckoff method is that the action of large traders can be detected through volume. The effort and result have a proportional relationship in the same way that cause and effect does.
在这个方法的语境中，“努力”指的是成交量，而“结果”指的是价格走势。原因在于，价格走势应当反映相应的成交量变化。这被称为价格和成交量的和谐或趋同。然而，有时候价格走势并不会反映成交量，这被称为背离。威科夫方法的关键之一是，可以通过成交量来检测大交易者的动作。努力和结果之间的关系就像因果关系一样是成比例的。
We can look at effort and result or volume and price in a few different ways. The first is to observe the volume associated with each candlestick, which is also known as volume spread analysis or VSA. We can identify basically two types of candlesticks and two types of volume for simplicity sake. The wide range and narrow range candlesticks and the high volume and low volume bars. When there is convergence or harmony, high volume results in a wide range candle and low volume results in a narrow range candle.
我们可以从多个角度来看待投入与结果或成交量与价格之间的关系。首先，我们可以观察每根K线对应的成交量，这也被称为成交量扩展分析（VSA）。为了简化，我们可以基本上将K线和成交量分为两种类型：宽幅和窄幅的K线，以及高成交量和低成交量。当两者一致时，高成交量会产生宽幅K线，而低成交量会产生窄幅K线。
Divergence occurs when high volume produces a narrow range candle or when low volume produces a wide range candle. A wide range candle with low volume means that there is a lack of interest in one side of the market through the entire range of that candle. So it's easy for one of the sides of the market to absorb the other. A narrow range candle with high volume means that there might be an absorption going on. There is a high volume of orders being traded in a narrow price range. Let's observe these scenarios with illustrations so it becomes easier to understand. On the left we have an example of harmony, meaning a wide range candle created with high volume.
当高交易量产生窄幅烛台或低交易量产生宽幅烛台时，会出现背离现象。低交易量的宽幅烛台意味着在整个烛台范围内，市场一侧缺乏兴趣。因此，市场的一方很容易吸收另一方。高交易量的窄幅烛台意味着可能正在发生吸收现象。在窄幅价格区间内有高交易量的订单在交易。让我们通过插图观察这些场景，这样理解起来更容易。在左边，我们有一个和谐的例子，即高交易量产生的宽幅烛台。
On the right we have an example of divergence, meaning a wide range candle created with low volume. In this other illustration we have a narrow range candle created with low volume which is denominated as harmony and on the right we have a narrow range candle created with high volume, which is a divergence scenario. These are the four possible cases for when the market is rising. When the market is falling eyesxy named inverted it is equal but the volume bars are invalid. In this illustration we can see the harmonic relationship between a wide range candle created with high volume and the divergent relationship between a wide range candle created with low volume.
右边是一个分歧的例子，即在低交易量下产生的宽范围蜡烛。另一个例子展示的是在低交易量下产生的窄范围蜡烛，称为和谐；右边是一个在高交易量下产生的窄范围蜡烛，这是一个分歧场景。这是市场上升时可能发生的四种情况。当市场下跌时，称为反转，但此时交易量柱不再有效。在这幅图中，我们可以看到高交易量产生的宽范围蜡烛的和谐关系，以及低交易量产生的宽范围蜡烛的分歧关系。
In this other image we can see the harmonic relationship between a narrow range candle created with low volume and the divergent relationship between a narrow range candle created with high volume. The second way of analyzing effort and result is to observe what happens in the subsequent shift, just the price movement after a given candlestick being analyzed. For example, a high volume wide range bullish candlestick should lead to a rising price in the subsequent candles. If pricing deed goes up, there is harmony or convergence. If a high volume wide range bullish candlestick leads to a falling price, there is divergence. High volume wide range bearish candlestick should lead to a falling price in the subsequent candles.
在这张图片中，我们可以看到低成交量创造的窄幅烛台所表现出的谐调关系，以及高成交量创造的窄幅烛台表现出的背离关系。分析成交量和结果的第二种方法是观察接下来发生的变化，即在所分析的烛台之后的价格走势。例如，高成交量和宽幅的看涨烛台应该会导致接下来的烛台价格上涨。如果价格确实上升，则表示有谐调或趋同。如果高成交量宽幅的看涨烛台导致价格下跌，则表示有背离。高成交量宽幅的看跌烛台应该会导致接下来的烛台价格下跌。
That would be an example of harmony or convergence. If a high volume wide range bearish candlestick leads to a rising price, we have a case of divergence. This illustration we can see a high volume wide range candle leading to a rising price, which represents a harmonic subsequent shift. On the right, we can see a high volume wide range candle leading to a falling price, which represents a divergent subsequent shift. In this other image, we can see the harmonic and divergent subsequent shifts for bearish high volume wide range candles. The third way of analyzing effort and result is by looking at price movements relative to their function in the trend. A price movement in the direction of the trend should display an increase in volume, while price movement against the trend should display a decrease in volume.
这可以作为和谐或趋同的一个例子。如果一个高成交量大范围的看跌蜡烛图导致价格上升，我们就遇到了一个背离的情况。这个例子中，我们看到一个高成交量大范围的蜡烛图导致价格上升，这代表了和谐后的转换。在右边，我们看到一个高成交量大范围的蜡烛图导致价格下跌，这代表了背离后的转换。在另一个图片中，我们能看到看跌高成交量大范围蜡烛图的和谐和背离的后续转换。第三种分析努力与结果的方法是查看价格相对于其趋势中功能的移动情况。在趋势方向上的价格移动应显示出成交量的增加，而逆趋势的价格移动应显示出成交量的减少。
When that happens, there is harmony. When a price movement in the direction of the trend displays a decrease in volume, and the price movement against the trend displays an increase in volume, there is divergence between effort and result. In this image, we can see the harmonic scenario of an up trend. The impulse movement increases in volume, and the corrective movement decreases in volume. In this other illustration, we can see a harmonic scenario for a downtrend, meaning, an increase in volume on the impulse movement, and an decrease in volume on the operational quality, and a decrease in volume on the correct move. Finally, a divergent scenario for a downtrend is to observe a decrease in volume on the impulse movement, and an increase in volume on the corrective movement.
当这种情况发生时，就是和谐。当趋势方向的价格变动伴随着成交量减少，而逆势方向的价格变动伴随着成交量增加时，表示努力和结果之间存在背离。在这张图中，我们可以看到上涨趋势的和谐场景。推动价格上涨的过程中，成交量增加，而在回调过程中，成交量减少。在另一张图中，我们可以看到下跌趋势的和谐场景，也就是说，在价格下跌的推动过程中，成交量增加，而在修正过程中，成交量减少。最后，对于下跌趋势出现背离的情况，就是在价格下跌的推动过程中，成交量减少，而在回调过程中，成交量增加。
Fourth and broader mode of analyzing effort and results, but I can vary the non-adjacent price movement. As we just saw, impulse movements should have higher volume than corrective movements for harmony to take place. Otherwise, there is divergence. Beyond that, with each impulse movement, volume should generate progressively higher peaks. When it doesn't, it's a divergence scenario. For an uptrend, the harmonic scenario occurs when each new high produces a higher peak in volume, while the divergence scenario is marked by higher highs in price, with lower highs in volume. For a downtrend, the harmonic scenario is marked by lower lows in price and higher peaks in volume. In the divergence scenario, the lower lows in price create lower peaks in volume.
第四种更广泛的分析努力和结果的模式，但我可以改变非相邻的价格运动。正如我们刚刚看到的，冲动运动应有比修正运动更高的交易量才能实现和谐。否则，就会出现背离。此外，每次冲动运动，成交量应该逐步产生更高的峰值。如果没有发生这种情况，就是背离的情景。在上升趋势中，和谐的情景是每创出一个新高时，成交量也出现更高的峰值，而背离的情景则是价格创出更高的新高，但成交量的峰值却在下降。在下跌趋势中，和谐的情景是价格创出更低的新低时，成交量出现更高的峰值。而背离的情景则是价格创出更低的新低时，成交量的峰值也在下降。
The fifth way of analyzing effort and result is by observing what happens when the price is about to break a significant level of support and resistance, slope-lined or dynamic-lined, like a moving average, for example. Harmony occurs when price breaks the level in question with high volume and doesn't lose the level afterwards. Divergence happens when price breaks a level with high volume, only to create a false breakout right after. For upward price movements, harmonic scenarios occurs when price zooms a resistance line, turning it into support which holds price action right after. In the divergence scenario, the support will not be able to hold price rendering the scenario as a false breakout. For downward price movements, a harmonic scenario occurs when the price zooms a support line turning into resistance, which holds price action right after. In the divergence scenario, the resistance will not be able to hold price rendering the scenario as a false breakout.
第五种分析努力与结果的方法是通过观察价格即将突破重要支撑和阻力位时的情况，这些支撑和阻力位可以是斜线或动态线，如移动平均线。例如，当价格以高成交量突破一个关键水平，并且随后没有失守该水平时，就达到了和谐状态。而当价格以高成交量突破一个水平，但随后形成虚假突破时，就出现了背离现象。
对于价格上涨的情况，和谐场景是指价格突破阻力线并将其转化为支撑线，而且该支撑能在随后维持价格动作。背离场景则是指支撑线无法维持价格，从而导致虚假突破。
对于价格下跌的情况，和谐场景是指价格突破支撑线并将其转化为阻力线，而且该阻力能在随后维持价格动作。背离场景则是指阻力线无法维持价格，从而导致虚假突破。
We must now move on to the study of the accumulation and distribution processes in greater detail and to the comprehension of the seven logical events outlined by the Wycoff method. Before we move on to the details of accumulation and the distribution, we have to realize that the Wycoff method was developed for the stock market anytime when more complex financial instruments did not exist. That means that the process of accumulation and distribution is based on the absorption of a limited number of stocks floating around. In today's markets, more refined financial instruments like derivatives change this paradigm. In the futures market, for example, the number of contracts that can be traded is infinite, so the accumulation and distribution processes are based on the interest or in the lack of interest of buyers and sellers.
我们现在必须更深入地研究积累和分配过程，并理解Wycoff方法中概述的七个逻辑事件。在进入积累和分配的细节之前，我们需要意识到，Wycoff方法是为股票市场开发的，当时复杂的金融工具还不存在。这意味着积累和分配的过程是基于吸收有限数量的流通股票。在当今的市场中，更精细的金融工具（如衍生品）改变了这一范式。例如，在期货市场中，可以交易的合约数量是无限的，所以积累和分配过程是基于买卖双方的兴趣或缺乏兴趣。
Nowadays, most retail traders have the notion that there are different types of market participants with different degrees of power in the market. It's useful to realize that trading is a game of information, meaning that the success of a market participant is not precisely a function of capital, but a function of information. In that sense, we can separate the market into two types of players, the well-informed and the uninformed. Large traders are well-informed and more than capable of understanding the flow of the market while retail traders are mostly uninformed, meaning that they are predominantly confused about what the market will do next. Well-informed traders are always ahead of the uninformed traders.
如今，大多数零售交易者都意识到市场上有不同类型的参与者，他们在市场中拥有不同程度的权力。理解这一点很有帮助：交易是一场信息的游戏，市场参与者的成败并不仅仅取决于资本，而是取决于信息。从这个意义上说，我们可以将市场分为两类参与者：信息丰富的和信息贫乏的。大型交易者通常信息丰富，能够充分理解市场的动向，而零售交易者大多信息贫乏，主要是对市场的下一步走向感到困惑。信息丰富的交易者总是领先于信息贫乏的交易者。
That's why capital flows constantly from the hands of the uninformed to the hands of the well-informed. Once again, this is a matter of information, not capital. If large traders can purposefully trigger stop orders in certain places of the chart, you can avoid being a victim of such a maneuver by understanding its mechanics. In other words, the limiting factor for retail traders is not just capital, it's information. Earlier in the course, we talked about some of the fast reversal patterns that might appear in the market, the climax, the double top or bottom, the pullback and the bull or bear trap. However, these are the exceptions in the Wycoff method.
这就是为什么资金总是从信息不足的人手中流向信息充足的人的原因。再一次，这本质上是信息的问题，而不是资金的问题。如果大型交易商可以在图表的特定位置故意触发止损单，那么你就可以通过理解其机制来避免成为这种操作的受害者。换句话说，对于零售交易者来说，限制因素不仅仅是资金，而是信息。在课程的前面，我们谈到了一些市场中可能出现的快速反转形态，比如高潮、双顶或双底、回调以及牛市或熊市陷阱。然而，这些都是威科夫方法中的例外情况。
In the normal Wyckoff cycle, the trend changes through a slow pattern, which is the main object of analysis of this method. The reason for that is that trend changing campaigns take some time to develop. Well-informed traders have to slowly act in order to effectively turn the market. It's time now to take a closer look at the nuances of the accumulation and distribution processes more carefully. Let's begin with the accumulation process. The accumulation is a ranging market that precedes an uptrend. In other words, the accumulation is the market phase where large traders will absorb supply, which we can see as the cause of the uptrend that will follow known as the effect. It logically means that if large traders create the accumulation, the downtrend that precedes it is in control of uninformed small traders. As the market is driven down by the uninformed traders, large, well-informed traders gradually absorb supply in order to create a reversal.
在正常的威科夫周期中，趋势的变化是通过一个缓慢的模式进行的，这是该方法主要分析的对象。这是因为趋势变化的过程需要一些时间来发展。消息灵通的交易者需要慢慢地采取行动，以有效地扭转市场。现在是仔细观察积累和分配过程细节的时候了。让我们从积累过程开始。积累阶段是上涨趋势之前的盘整市场。换句话说，积累是市场阶段中的一部分，在这个阶段，大型交易者会吸收供给，这可以被视为随后上涨趋势的原因。逻辑上讲，如果大型交易者创造了积累阶段，那么在其之前的下跌趋势则是由不知情的小型交易者控制的。当市场被不知情的交易者推动下跌时，消息灵通的大型交易者逐渐吸收供给，以便制造反转。
The fundamental maneuver in an accumulation process is the bear trap, which is denominated as spring in the wake of terminology. The spring is characterized by a sharp movement to the downside, which breaks the lower limit or support of the accumulation range. The motivation for this maneuver is threefold. Trigger the stop-loss orders of traders who manage to enter good long positions at the lower limit of the accumulation range. The stop-loss of a long position is a short position. In other words, when these tops are triggered, large, well-informed traders can take the counterpart and buy at low prices. The spring maneuver can induce uninformed traders to the downside. When traders see price breaking in support, they are tempted to sell so they don't miss out on the opportunity. Their sell orders provide liquidity to the large, well-informed traders which just want to buy at these low prices. And last but not least, the spring also served as a way for well-informed traders to lock profits from the short positions resulting from the prior downtrend. Large traders will absorb supply until they are assured that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
在累积过程中的一个基本操作是“空头陷阱”，在术语中也称为“弹簧”。“弹簧”的特征是价格向下急剧波动，突破了累积区间的下限或支撑位。这一操作有三个主要目的：
1. 触发那些在累积区间下限开立了多仓（买入持仓）的交易者的止损单。多仓的止损实际上是空仓（卖出持仓）。换句话说，当这些止损单被触发后，大型知情交易者可以作为对手方在低价买入。
2. “弹簧”操作可以诱导不知情的交易者卖出。当交易者看到价格突破支撑位时，他们可能会因为不想错过机会而选择卖出。这些卖单为大型知情交易者提供了流动性，大型交易者利用这些卖单在低价位买入。
3. 最后，“弹簧”还可以让知情的大型交易者从此前的下跌趋势形成的空仓中锁定利润。大型交易者会吸收供应，直到他们确信阻力最小的路径是向上的。
They can perform certain maneuvers in order to test if that's the case. This is something that you, as an observer, of this process should pay attention to. If large traders observe that downward price movements don't grab the attention of sellers, showing low volume, it's a sign that there is lack of interest to the downside and supply has been mostly absorbed. Let's look at the basic characteristics of an accumulation. As the accumulation range develops, there is the tendency for volume and volatility to decline, generally speaking. This happens because, as time passes by, in large traders absorb supply, there will be progressively less interest to the downside. Volume will increase before price breaks out of the accumulation range, which is one of the signs that can be used to anticipate the uptrend. In the attempt to manipulate uninformed traders, large traders will create what is called a spring, which is a false bearish breakout intended to induce uninformed traders to sell at lower prices, just so that well-informed traders can buy more at an extremely good price.
他们可以执行某些操作来测试情况是否如此。作为这个过程的观察者，你应该关注这一点。如果大交易者注意到下跌的价格变动没有引起卖家的注意，且成交量较低，这表明卖方对下跌缺乏兴趣，大部分供给已经被吸收。让我们来看一下积累阶段的基本特征。随着积累区间的发展，一般来说，成交量和波动率有下降的趋势。这是因为随着时间的推移，大交易者逐渐吸收供给，市场对下跌的兴趣逐渐减少。在价格突破积累区间之前，成交量会增加，这是预测上涨趋势的一个信号。为了操纵不知情的交易者，大交易者会制造所谓的“弹簧”现象，即虚假的看跌突破，目的是诱使不知情的交易者以较低价格卖出，以便消息灵通的交易者以极佳价格买入更多。
Since well-informed traders will be absorbing supply constantly, the bullish candlesticks will tend to be wider than the bearish ones. In the final stages of the accumulation, the formation of higher highs and higher lows inside the accumulation will occur to initiate the uptrend. The accumulation will finally end when well-informed traders absorb enough supply, so that selling interest is very low. This will create a path of least resistance to the upside and the uptrend will start. Let's now take a look at the details of the distribution. The distribution is a range market that precedes a downtrend. In other words, the distribution is the market phase where large traders will absorb demand, which we can see as the cause of the downtrend that will follow, known as the effect. It logically means that if large traders create the distribution, the uptrend that precedes it is in control of uninformed traders. As the market is driven up by uninformed traders, large well-informed traders gradually absorb demand in order to create a lack of interest to the upside.
由于消息灵通的交易者会不断吸收供应量，牛市的蜡烛图往往比熊市的更宽。在吸筹阶段的最后，市场内部会出现更高的高点和更高的低点，这是上升趋势的开始。当消息灵通的交易者吸收了足够的供应量，导致卖出兴趣非常低时，吸筹阶段就会结束。这将为上涨创造最少阻力的路径，上升趋势将开始。
现在让我们看看分配阶段的细节。分配阶段是下跌趋势前的一个区间市场。换句话说，分配阶段是大交易者吸收需求的市场阶段，这会成为之后下跌趋势的原因，也就是效果。这合乎逻辑地意味着，如果是大交易者创造了分配阶段，那么之前的上涨趋势就是由无信息的交易者主导的。当市场被无信息交易者推高时，消息灵通的大交易者会逐渐吸收需求，从而导致上涨兴趣的缺乏。
The fundamental maneuver in a distribution process is the bull trap, which is denominated as up-thrust in the lack of terminology. The up-thrust is characterized by a sharp movement to the upside, which breaks the upper limits or resistance of the distribution range. The motivation for this maneuver is threefold. Trigger the stop-loss orders of traders who manage to enter good short positions at the upper limits of the distribution range. The stop-loss of a short position is a long position. In other words, when these stops are triggered, large well-informed traders can take the counterpart and sell at high prices. The up-thrust maneuver can induce uninformed traders to the upside. And traders see price breaking and resistance. They are tempted to buy so they don't miss out on the opportunity. Their buy orders provide liquidity to the large well-informed traders who just want to sell at these high prices. Last but not least, the up-thrust also serves as a way for well-informed traders to lock profits from the long positions resulting from the prior uptrend. Large traders will observe demand until they are assured that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
在分配过程中，最基本的操作手法是所谓的“牛市陷阱”，也被称为“上冲”。“上冲”的特点是价格急剧上升，突破了分配区间的上限或阻力位。这种操作的动机有三方面：
1. 触发那些在分配区间上限建立了空头头寸的交易者的止损单。这些止损单相当于买入单。换句话说，当这些止损被触发时，大型的消息灵通的交易者可以在高价位卖出。
2. “上冲”会诱使缺乏信息的交易者跟风追涨。当他们看到价格突破了阻力位时，往往会被吸引去买入，以免错失机会。这些买入单为那些大规模、有信息优势的交易者提供了在高价卖出的流动性。
3. 最后但同样重要的是，“上冲”操作还可以让那些大交易者锁定从之前的上涨趋势中获得的多头仓位的利润。大交易者会观察市场需求，直到确认市场阻力最小的方向是向下的。
这样的策略使得有信息优势的交易者可以在高位卖出，从而实现利润最大化。
They can perform certain maneuvers in order to test if that's the case. This is something that you as an observer of this process should pay attention to. If large traders observe that upper-priced movements don't grab the attention of buyers, showing low volume, it's a sign that there is lack of interest to the upside, and demand has been mostly absorbed. Let's look at the basic characteristics of a distribution. As the distribution range develops, there is the tendency for volume and volatility to decline generally speaking. This happens because as time passes by, the large traders observe demand, there will be progressively less interest to the upside. Volume will increase before price breaks out of the distribution range, which is one of the signs that can be used to anticipate the downtrend.
他们可以进行某些操作来测试是否是这种情况。作为这个过程的观察者，你应当关注这一点。如果大交易员发现高价位的走势未能吸引买家的注意，显示出低成交量，这是一个缺乏上升兴趣的信号，意味着需求大部分已经被消化掉了。让我们看看一个分配区间的基本特征。当分配区间发展时，成交量和波动性通常会有下降的趋势。这是因为随着时间的推移，大交易员观察到需求，市场对于高价位的兴趣会逐渐减少。在价格突破分配区间之前，成交量会增加，这是可以用来预测下跌趋势的一个信号。
In the attempt to manipulate uninformed traders, large traders will create what is called a number thrust, which is a false bullish breakout intended to induce uninformed traders to buy at higher prices just so that well-informed traders can sell more at an extremely good price. Since well-informed traders will be observing demand constantly, the bearish candlesticks will tend to be wider than the bullish ones. In the final stages of the distribution, the formation of lower highs and lower lows inside a distribution will occur to initiate the downtrend. The distribution will finally end when well-informed traders observe enough demand so that buying interest is very low. This will create a path of least resistance to the downside and the downtrend will start. Given these basic characteristics of accumulation and distribution structures, it's time now to move on to the seven logical events outlined by the Wycov Method.
为了操纵不知情的交易者，大型交易者会制造所谓的“数字冲击”，这是一种虚假的看涨突破，目的是诱使不知情的交易者在高价位买入，以便知情交易者能在极佳的价格卖出更多股票。由于知情交易者会不断观察需求情况，因此看跌的蜡烛图往往比看涨的蜡烛图宽。在分配的最后阶段，会形成更低的高点和更低的低点，以启动下跌趋势。当知情交易者观察到足够低的买入兴趣时，分配阶段将结束。这将创造一个通向下行趋势的阻力最小的路径，并启动下跌趋势。了解了这些基本的积累和分配结构特征，现在是时候进入Wycov方法概述的七个逻辑事件了。
The Wycov Methodology outlines seven logical events to help the trader read the market more accurately. The main advantage in this is that the trader knows what to expect in each market scenario, which can help reduce some of the uncertainty of trading. These events are the preliminary stop, the climax, the reaction, the secondary test, the false breakout, the breakout, and the confirmation. Next, we'll examine each of these seven events more carefully, starting with the preliminary stop. The preliminary stop is the first sign that the trend might be near its end. When we are talking about an accumulation, the preliminary stop is called preliminary support.
Wycoff方法论概述了七个逻辑事件，帮助交易员更准确地解读市场。主要优势在于，交易员知道在每种市场情景中会发生什么，从而减少交易中的一些不确定性。这些事件包括初始止跌、高潮、反应、次级测试、假突破、突破以及确认。接下来，我们将更仔细地分析这七个事件，从初始止跌开始。
初始止跌是趋势可能接近尾声的第一个信号。当我们谈论累积时，初始止跌被称为初始支撑。
And when we are talking about a distribution, the preliminary stop is called preliminary supply. The main characteristic of a preliminary stop is the first entrance of large traders in the opposite direction of the main trend. This is usually displayed in two different forms, with narrow range candles that have high volume, which is a form of divergence in volume spread analysis, or with a candle that has a large tail and high volume. In other words, the preliminary stop is the first large traders attempt to absorb orders. Let's observe hypothetical examples of that, both in accumulation and distribution processes, starting with the accumulation first.
当我们谈论分布时，初步停止被称为初步供应。初步停止的主要特征是大交易者首次在主要趋势的反方向进入。这通常表现为两种形式：一种是狭窄范围的蜡烛图伴随着高成交量，这在量价分析中是一种背离形式；另一种是有长尾巴且高成交量的蜡烛图。换句话说，初步停止是大交易者第一次尝试吸收订单。接下来，我们来观察一些假设的例子，包括在积累和分布过程中的情形，先从积累开始。
The preliminary support occurs when the downtrend is still in effect, so it's usually not the lowest point in the trend. It's just the first appearance of large well-informed traders starting to absorb supply. As I said previously, the preliminary support will appear mainly in two forms, either as a set of narrow range candles with constant high volume across them, or as a candle with a prominent large shadow and high volume. High volume across the set of narrow range candles means that the supply from uninformed traders is badly with the demand from well-informed traders. The result is a high level of activity in a narrow price range.
初步支撑出现在下降趋势仍在进行时，所以它通常不是趋势中的最低点。它只是首次出现大量有见识的交易者开始吸纳供应。如前所述，初步支撑主要以两种形式出现：一种是窄幅震荡的蜡烛线图伴随着持续的高交易量，另一种是一根带有长影线和高交易量的蜡烛线图。在窄幅震荡的蜡烛线图中出现高交易量，这意味着不了解行情的交易者的供应与有见识的交易者的需求匹配不佳。结果就是在一个狭窄的价格范围内出现高水平的交易活动。
The other scenario where a large shadow appears is a little more explicit. The large shadow is a clear sign of entrance from well-informed traders on the other side of the trend. In the distribution, the rationale is the same, but upside down. The preliminary supply occurs when the uptrend is still in effect, so it's usually not the highest point in the trend. It's just the first appearance of large well-informed traders starting to absorb demand. As I said previously, the preliminary supply will appear mainly in two forms, either as a set of narrow range candles with constant high volume across them, whereas a candle with prominent large shadow and high volume.
另一种出现大阴影的情形更为明确。大阴影清楚表明逆趋势方向上有资讯丰富的交易员进入。在分配阶段，原理相同，但方向相反。初步供应出现在上升趋势尚未结束时，所以这通常不是趋势的最高点。这只是在大交易员开始吸收需求时首次出现。正如我之前所说，初步供应主要以两种形式出现：一种是一组窄幅波动却伴随高交易量的蜡烛图，另一种则是一根带有显著大阴影和高交易量的蜡烛图。
The high volume across the set of narrow range candles means that the demand from uninformed traders is battling the supply from the well-informed traders. The result is a high level of activity in a narrow price range. The other scenario where a large shadow appears is a little more explicit. The large shadow is a clear sign of entrance from well-informed traders on the other side of the trend. For the trader following the Wyckoff method, the preliminary stop has two main uses. It serves as an indication that it's no longer a good idea to trade in the direction of the current trend, and the current price level might be a good place to take profits, assuming a position was taken at the beginning of the current trend. There's the possibility of a trend having multiple preliminary stops before transitioning into a sideways market due to the inertial movement of a trend. Trying to stop a strong trend is like trying to stop a cargo ship. A lot of power is necessary, so one preliminary stop might not be enough to transition the market into a sideways movement.
高成交量出现在狭窄的价格区间内的蜡烛图上，意味着缺乏信息的交易者的需求正在与消息灵通的交易者的供给发生争斗。结果是在一个窄幅价格范围内形成了高水平的交易活动。另一种情形是出现大影线，这种情况更为明显。大影线清楚地表明消息灵通的交易者在趋势的反方向上进行了介入。对于使用Wyckoff方法的交易者来说，初步止损有两个主要用途：它表明继续跟随当前趋势进行交易已不再是一个好主意，并且当前价格水平可能是一个不错的获利了结点，假设交易是在当前趋势开始时就介入的。由于趋势的惯性运动，可能会在转换为横盘市场之前出现多次初步止损。试图阻止一个强劲的趋势就像试图停下一艘货船一样，需要很大的力量，所以一个初步止损可能不足以将市场转入横盘整理状态。
The climax is the second event in the Wyckoff method, coming right after the preliminary stop, and it is marked by a wide range candle in the trend direction with climatic volume. It's usually the highest high before a distribution or the lowest low before an accumulation. In the case of an accumulation, the climax is denoted as a selling climax, and in the case of a distribution, it is denoted as a buying climax. As the event name suggests, the climax will usually appear as a wide range candle with high volume, but not necessarily. The climax might also appear in similar structures to the preliminary stop, meaning a set of narrow range candles with high volume where a candlestick with large tail and high volume. In this illustration, you can see the textbook version of the buying and selling climaxes. The confirmation for the climax can only come from event number three and four, which we'll study next.
高潮是Wyckoff方法中的第二个事件，紧随初步止跌之后，其特点是在趋势方向上出现高波动的蜡烛线，并伴随着大量的成交量。通常情况下，在分配前是最高点，或在吸筹前是最低点。如果是吸筹，高潮被称为卖出高潮；如果是分配，高潮则称为买入高潮。正如名字所示，高潮通常会表现为大量成交量的高波动蜡烛线，但不一定总是如此。高潮也可能会以类似于初步止跌的结构出现，也就是说，可能会是高成交量的小波动蜡烛线，或有长尾和高成交量的蜡烛线。在这个示例中，你可以看到教科书版本的买入和卖出高潮。对高潮的确认只能由第三和第四个事件来验证，这些我们会在后面学习。
In the overall sense, the climax comes after the preliminary stop. In the case of an accumulation, the selling climax will come after the preliminary support, as you can see in this illustration. In the case of a distribution, buying climax will come after the preliminary supply. The uses of the climax are similar to the preliminary stop. It's an indication that trades in the direction of the main trend should not be taken anymore, even though what happens after the climax will determine if the trend will continue or not. Second, is probably the last chance to take profits from the current trend trade, assuming there was one. It's also important to know that a trend might not always end with a climatic volume. In that case, instead of a buying or selling climax, there will be a buying or selling exhaustion, which is the gradual decrease in volume at the end of a trend.
总体而言，高潮出现在初步阶段停止之后。在累积过程中，卖出高潮会在初步支撑之后出现，如图所示。在分配过程中，买入高潮会在初步供应之后出现。高潮的作用与初步停止类似，它表示不应再跟随主要趋势方向进行交易，即使高潮之后的情况将决定趋势是否会继续。其次，这可能是从当前趋势交易中获利的最后机会，假设有这样的交易存在。同样重要的是，要知道趋势不一定总是以高潮的交易量结束。在这种情况下，取而代之的是买入或卖出衰竭，这指的是在趋势结尾时交易量逐渐减少。
Decreasing volume simply means a lack of interest from one of the sides of the market. Buying or selling exhaustion represent a type of divergent relationship between price and volume, or effort and results using Wyckoff terminology. A climax is not confirmed until the third event, which is called reaction, which is characterized by a sharp movement in the opposite direction of the climax. In the case of an accumulation structure, the reaction is called automatic rally, and in distribution structures, the reaction is called automatic reaction. This is a critical event because it not only confirms the climax, but it also represents what is called a change of character in the Wyckoff terminology.
成交量减少只是意味着市场一方缺乏兴趣。买入或卖出疲软表示在价格和成交量之间、或在努力和结果之间存在一种背离关系，使用Wyckoff术语来解释。高潮（climax）直到第三个事件发生后才被确认，这个事件称为反应（reaction），其特点是价格朝高潮相反方向的急剧运动。在积累结构中，这个反应称为自动反弹（automatic rally），在分布结构中，反应称为自动回撤（automatic reaction）。这是一个关键事件，因为它不仅确认了高潮，还标志着Wyckoff术语中的所谓“性质的改变”（change of character）。
In other words, the reaction signals the end of the current trend and the beginning of the sideways movement. This change of character itself must be confirmed by the next logical event. The degree of the reaction is a key factor in determining if the market will indeed reverse after the sideways market, or if it will resume the direction of the prior trend. A strong reaction suggests that a reversal might take place while a weak reaction with low volume suggests a reaccumulation or redistribution. Generally speaking, the reaction will begin with high volume and end with low volume. In this illustration, you can see an example of an automatic rally, meaning the reaction after a selling climax. In this other illustration, you can see an example of an automatic reaction after a buying climax.
换句话说，这种反应标志着当前趋势的结束和横盘阶段的开始。这种特性的变化本身必须通过下一个合乎逻辑的事件来确认。反应的程度是决定市场在横盘之后是否会真正反转的关键因素，还是会重新恢复先前的趋势。强烈的反应表明可能会发生反转，而低成交量的弱反应则表明可能是再积累或再分配。通常来说，反应会以高成交量开始，以低成交量结束。在这个例子中，你可以看到一个自动反弹的例子，即卖出高潮后的反应。在另一个例子中，你可以看到买入高潮后的自动反应。
There are three main uses for the reaction event. The first is to be used as one of the boundaries for the accumulation or distribution ranges. In the case of an accumulation, the automatic rally establishes the upper limits of the range or the resistance. In the case of a distribution, the automatic reaction establishes the lower limits of the range or the support. The second use of the reaction is to confirm the climax. The automatic rally will confirm a selling climax while the automatic reaction will confirm a buying climax. The third use of the reaction is to provide context. In other words, if the reaction confirms the climax, now traders know that they should expect a secondary test at the level of the climax. This is very useful because it eliminates some of the uncertainty. In other words, using a method like Wyckoff has the benefit of knowing what to expect in different market scenarios.
反应事件有三个主要用途。第一个用途是用作累积或分布区间的边界。在累积的情况下，自动反弹确定区间的上限或阻力。在分布的情况下，自动回调确定区间的下限或支撑。第二个用途是确认高潮。自动反弹确认卖出高潮，而自动回调确认买入高潮。第三个用途是提供背景信息。换句话说，如果反应确认了高潮，交易者就知道应该在高潮的水平上进行二次测试。这非常有用，因为它减少了一些不确定性。换句话说，使用像Wyckoff这样的方法可以在不同的市场情景中知道应该期待什么。
The secondary test is the fourth logical event and it is characterized as a price movement aiming to test the level of the climax, but with lower volume and narrow candle ranges. Sometimes price will fall short of the climax, sometimes it will test exactly and sometimes it will surpass the level of the climax. These different situations are indications of the underlying strength of market players. The secondary test is characteristic after the reaction and you will mark the end of what is called phase A. However, other secondary tests can occur in phase B and they represent a challenge to traders using the Wyckoff methodology because they sometimes produce minor fouls breakouts. In this illustration, you can see the example of a secondary test in an accumulation structure and in this other illustration, you can see the example of a secondary test in a distribution structure.
次级测试是第四个逻辑事件，其特点是价格移动旨在测试高潮水平，但成交量较低且K线区间较窄。有时价格会低于高潮水平，有时会刚好测试到高潮水平，有时则会超过高潮水平。这些不同的情况都反映了市场参与者的潜在实力。次级测试通常出现在反应之后，并且标志着A阶段的结束。然而，在B阶段也可能发生其他次级测试，这对使用威科夫方法的交易者来说是一种挑战，因为它们有时会导致小幅度的虚假突破。在这个图例中，您可以看到累积结构中的次级测试示例，而在另一个图例中，您可以看到分配结构中的次级测试示例。
When we talk about accumulation or reaccumulation processes, the minor fouls break out of the upper limit, which is actually a secondary test, is labeled up thrust action. If price remains in a sideways motion above the upper limit of the range for a while before returning, that action is labeled as a minor sign of strength. Recall that in this context, strength relates to demand and weakness relates to supply, not to the power behind the movements. A breakout of the lower limit of the range is labeled as secondary test as sign of weakness. In the context of a distribution or redistribution, the minor fouls break out of the upper limit, which is a secondary test, is labeled simply as up thrust. In a minor fouls breakout of the lower limit is labeled as minor sign of weakness. Don't get too worried about the correct labels though, because we can only be certain about them once we know which direction price we'll trend next. What's important here is the perception of a minor fouls breakout.
当我们谈到累积或再累积过程时，如果价格短暂突破上限，这实际上是一个次级测试，被称为上升推动动作。如果价格在突破上限后在该范围以上横盘一段时间再回落，这个动作被称为次级强势信号。在这种情况下，强势指的是需求而不是力量的大小，弱势指的是供应。突破下限被称为次级测试作为弱势信号。在分配或再分配的情况下，价格短暂突破上限，这是一个次级测试，被简单地称为上升推动。而突破下限则被标记为次级弱势信号。不要太担心这些标签的准确性，因为只有当我们知道价格接下来会朝哪个方向趋势时，才能确定这些标签。这里重要的是如何看待短暂突破。
Beyond the secondary test, the method also outlines what is called a generic test. In key moments of the accumulation or distribution process, a valid test would display low volume while a failed test would display relatively high volume. The reason for low volume in a valid test is that the well-informed traders have absorbed all the orders, and the market is now ready to start a new trend. In the failed test, volume is still high because uninformed traders are still trying to push price in one direction. So the well-informed traders must keep absorbing orders, which inevitably increases volume. We have to analyze tests in terms of volume spread analysis. In other words, to know if a test is successful or not, we need to analyze price in alignment with volume. In this context, we are looking for what are called no-demand candle or no-supply candle. A no-demand candle is a narrow range bullish candle with lower volume than the last two candles. A no-supply candle is a narrow range bearish candle with lower volume than the last two candles. The no-demand candle and the no-supply candle basically means a lack of interest in the corresponding direction.
除了次级测试之外，这个方法还提出了所谓的通用测试。在关键的积累或分配过程中，有效的测试会显示低交易量，而失败的测试则显示相对较高的交易量。有效测试的低交易量是因为消息灵通的交易者已经吸收了所有的订单，市场现在准备开始新的趋势。在失败的测试中，交易量仍然很高，因为不知情的交易者仍在试图推动价格向一个方向发展。因此，消息灵通的交易者必须继续吸收订单，这不可避免地会增加交易量。
我们必须通过成交量扩展分析来分析测试。换句话说，要知道测试是否成功，我们需要结合成交量来分析价格。在这个背景下，我们寻找所谓的无需求蜡烛或无供应蜡烛。无需求蜡烛是一种窄范围的看涨蜡烛，其成交量低于前两根蜡烛。无供应蜡烛是一种窄范围的看跌蜡烛，其成交量低于前两根蜡烛。无需求蜡烛和无供应蜡烛基本上意味着在相应方向上缺乏兴趣。
The false breakout is considered to be the most important event of all, since it represents the best trading opportunity with the greatest risk-reward ratio in the Wycoff method. It represents the ultimate point of the manipulation maneuver. In the case of an accumulation, the false breakout is called spring, and in the case of a distribution, the false breakout is called up-thrust. This event marks the end of the cause and the beginning of the effect. The false breakout happens because at the extremes of the range, different types of traders place a lot of orders, which in the Wycoff terminology creates what is called a liquidity zone. These zones turn out to be an extremely good place for large traders to absorb a lot of supply or demand, depending on what direction we are talking about.
在所有事件中，虚假突破被认为是最重要的，因为它代表了在威科夫方法中风险回报比最高的最佳交易机会。它标志着操纵行动的最终点。在累积阶段，虚假突破被称为"春季"，而在分配阶段，虚假突破被称为"上冲"。这一事件标志着原因的结束和结果的开始。
虚假突破之所以发生，是因为在范围的极端位置，不同类型的交易者会下大量订单，这在威科夫术语中被称为"流动性区"。这些区域对大交易者来说是吸收大量供给或需求的极佳场所，具体取决于我们讨论的方向。
In the false breakout, large traders make it look like a market will indeed continue in one direction in order to attract uninformed traders to trading that direction. This is only a trick to generate liquidity so that large traders can enter in the opposite side. The key factor while analyzing a market scenario like this is to look for signs of rejection. Price needs to break a certain level and then show some sign of rejection to that breakout right after. That's how we know well-informed traders are entering on the opposite side of that breakout.
在假突破中，大型交易者会制造市场继续朝一个方向发展的假象，以吸引不知情的交易者跟随。当这些不知情的交易者进入市场后，大型交易者才能在相反方向进行交易，从而得到足够的流动性。分析这种市场情形时，关键是寻找被拒绝的迹象。价格需要突破某个水平，然后马上表现出对这一突破的拒绝迹象。这样我们就知道，消息灵通的交易者正在突破的反方向进行交易。
This display of rejection can occur in one, two, or several candlesticks. Each case is a little different, so each market scenario must be analyzed individually. For example, in an accumulation, the false breakout is called spring and it will induce sellers to the downside by a breakout of the accumulation support. When uninformed sellers see the support being broken, they start to sell with the fear of missing out the opportunity to make a profit. Meanwhile, the large traders are aggressively absorbing supply in order to enter long positions at a low price. Because of the significant absorption of supply, price action will display signs of rejection like leaving prominent lower shadows at the accumulation support, for example. That's the well-informed trader's footprint at the spring.
这种反向表现可能发生在一个、两个或多个蜡烛图中。每种情况略有不同，因此每个市场情景都需要单独分析。比如在一个积累阶段，假突破被称为"弹簧效应"，它会通过突破积累支撑位诱导卖家向下抛售。当不了解行情的卖家看到支撑位被突破时，他们会开始恐慌性卖出，害怕错过获利机会。同时，大量交易者会积极吸收供给，以便以较低的价格建立多头头寸。由于大量吸收供给，价格走势会显示出反向的迹象，比如在积累支撑位留下明显的下影线。这就是消息灵通的交易者在"弹簧效应"中的痕迹。
In a distribution, the false breakout is called up-thrust and it will induce buyers to the upside by a breakout of the distribution resistance. When uninformed buyers see the resistance being broken, they start to buy with the fear of missing out the opportunity to make a profit. Meanwhile, the well-informed traders are aggressively absorbing this demand in order to enter short positions at a very high price. Because of the significant absorption of demand, price action will display signs of rejection by leaving prominent upper shadows at the distribution resistance, for example. That's the well-informed trader's footprint at the up-thrust.
在分布阶段，假突破被称为“上冲”。这种情况会通过突破分布阻力来吸引买家。当不知情的买家看到阻力位被突破时，害怕错过盈利机会就会开始买入。这时，有信息优势的交易者会积极吸收这些需求，以便在非常高的价格上建立空头头寸。由于大量的需求被吸收，价格走势会显示出被拒绝的迹象，比如在分布阻力位留下明显的上影线。这就是有信息优势的交易者在上冲时留下的痕迹。
There are three main uses of the false breakout. The most obvious one is to drive the breakout traders out of the market. These are the traders that believe it's a good idea to buy or sell on a clear breakout in the chart. This is perhaps the primary source of liquidity for the well-informed traders. The second is to trigger the stop-loss orders of other traders who happen to dwell in the liquidity zone. The third is to stop all the traders who were smart enough to anticipate the direction the well-informed traders want to trade, but entered the market too soon. In the Wyckoff method, there are two main signs traders should look for in the anticipation of a false breakout. The first sign is that the prior events must develop in a certain proportion. In other words, it's important that all the events leading up to the false breakout happen more or less in the way the method suggests.
假突破有三个主要用途。最明显的用途是将突破交易者赶出市场。这些交易者认为，在图表上看到明确突破时买入或卖出是个好主意。对于信息灵通的交易者来说，这可能是主要的流动性来源。第二个用途是触发其他交易者的止损订单，这些交易者恰好待在流动性区域内。第三个用途是阻止那些足够聪明、预见到信息灵通的交易者交易方向的交易者，但他们入市过早。在Wyckoff方法中，交易者应寻找两个主要信号，以预见假突破。第一个信号是先前的事件必须以某种比例发展。换句话说，所有导致假突破的事件都应该或多或少按照该方法的建议发生。
The other sign is the absence of a false breakout in the other direction. It's interesting to note that there are different degrees in which false breakouts can develop, and there is an inverse relationship between the apparent aggressiveness of the false breakout and its true power. For example, in an accumulation, a spring that breaks the support with more violence is called terminal shakeout. However, the fact that price traveled more in the direction against the well-informed traders, the notes that uninformed traders were also powerful, so the well-informed had to work harder to observe all the supply. In a spring that only penetrates to support a little bit, the notes more power, even though it looks subtler in the chart. That's because the large traders already observed all supply and are now ready to initiate the new trend. This is analogous to the divergent relationship between a narrow range candle with high volume. The candle looks unimportant, but the fact that there is high volume implies something useful.
另一个迹象是没有出现向相反方向的虚假突破。有趣的是，虚假突破可以有不同的程度，而且虚假突破的表面激烈程度与其真正的力量之间存在反向关系。例如，在积累阶段，一个以更猛烈方式突破支撑的情况被称为“终极震荡”。然而，价格越是朝着不利于消息灵通交易者的方向移动，说明不知情的交易者也很强大，所以消息灵通的交易者需要更加努力地消化所有供应。在一个仅轻微突破支撑的情况中，尽管在图表上看起来更微妙，但其实力量更大。这是因为大交易者已经消化了所有供应，现在准备开始新的趋势。这类似于高成交量却窄幅波动的蜡烛图形态。尽管这种蜡烛图看起来不重要，但高交易量表明了某些有用的信息。
The breakout is the sixth event, and it represents a true breakout of an accumulation or distribution. So according to the Wyckoff method, this is the second change of character. A change of character happens when the market goes from trending to ranging mode, or vice versa. In the reaction, the climax is confirmed, and the market goes from trending to ranging. In the breakout, the market goes from ranging to trending. A true breakout of an accumulation is denominated as sign of strength, or jump across the creek. A true breakout of a distribution is denominated as sign of weakness, or fall through the ice. Notice that strength and weakness in this context are now related to the power of the movement, but to its direction. Strength is analogous to the upside, and weakness is analogous to the downside. This is a reflection of price starting to move in the path of least resistance after the large, well-informed traders have absorbed all the supply or demand depending on what direction we are talking about.
第六个事件是突破，它表示一次真正的蓄积或分配的突破。因此，根据Wyckoff方法，这是第二次性格变化。性格变化发生在市场从趋势模式转为区间模式，或相反。在反应过程中，高峰被确认，市场从趋势转为区间。在突破时，市场从区间转为趋势。一个真正的蓄积突破被称为强势迹象，或跃过小溪。一个真正的分配突破被称为弱势迹象，或掉入冰中。注意，此处的强势和弱势与运动的力量无关，而是与方向有关。强势类似于上涨，弱势类似于下跌。这反映了当大规模、消息灵通的交易员已吸收了所有的供应或需求后，价格开始沿最小阻力路径移动的情形。
The breakout is where traders should look for the harmonic relationship between price and volume, in comparison to a support or resistance level that was pre-established by the reaction. The traders should look for is a breakout with high volume where the broken level holds price. Observing if the broken level will, in fact, hold price is absolutely critical, because if it doesn't, it might be in the face of a false breakout, which would completely change the situation. In this illustration, you can see the breakout event in an accumulation structure, also known as a sign of strength, or jump across the creek. In this other illustration, you can see the breakout event in a distribution structure, also known as a sign of weakness, or fall through the ice.
突破点是交易者应该寻找价格和成交量之间的协调关系的地方，这与之前由市场反应确定的支撑或阻力水平进行比较。交易者应该关注的是在高成交量下的突破，在这种情况下，突破的水平能够支撑住价格。观察突破的水平是否能够真正支撑住价格是至关重要的，因为如果不能，这很可能是一个假突破，局势会完全改变。在这个图示中，你可以看到在累积结构中的突破事件，这也被称为强势信号或跨越溪流。而在另一个图示中，你可以看到在分配结构中的突破事件，这也被称为弱势信号或跌破冰面。
The last event is the confirmation, which is a final necessary step because it validates the breakout. This is important because in real time, it's always difficult to know if we are dealing with a true or false breakout, and that's critical for the decision-making process. In the case of an accumulation, the breakout of the range is called sign of strength or jump across the creek. The seven events, the confirmation, is called the last point of support. In the case of a distribution, the breakout of the range is called sign of weakness, or fall through the ice. The seven events, the confirmation, is called the last point of supply. The confirmation is usually a clear event in the chart.
最后一个事件是确认，这是一个必要的最终步骤，因为它验证了突破的真实性。这非常重要，因为在实时交易中，我们很难知道我们面对的是一个真正的突破还是一个假突破，而这对决策过程至关重要。
在累积阶段，突破区间被称为“增强信号”或“跃过溪流”。七个事件中的确认被称为“最后的支撑点”。在分配阶段，突破区间被称为“弱化信号”或“跌破冰层”。七个事件中的确认被称为“最后的供应点”。
确认通常是在图表上一个明显的事件。
At this point, the trend will be in effect, and this is where the harmonic relationship between impulse and corrective price movements is expected. An increase in volume on impulse movements, and a decrease in volume on corrective movements. In an accumulation, the critical moment is to wait for a confirmation formed by a no-supply candle testing Test ignore the support formed by the reaction. and after that, seeing a sign of strength candle in a medium-range bullish candle with high volume. In a distribution, the critical moment is to wait for a confirmation form by a no-demand candle testing the resistance formed by the reaction. and then after that seeing a sign of a weakness candle meaning a medium range bearish candle with high volume.
此时，趋势将生效，这是预期冲动性价格运动与修正性价格运动之间的谐波关系的地方。冲动性价格运动中成交量增加，修正性价格运动中成交量减少。在股票吸筹阶段，关键时刻是等待一个不需要大量供应（无供给）蜡烛形态测试反应形成的支撑。之后，看到一个强势信号蜡烛，即中等范围的高成交量看涨蜡烛。在派发阶段，关键时刻是等待一个无需大量需求（无需求）蜡烛形态测试反应形成的阻力。然后，看到一个弱势信号蜡烛，即中等范围的高成交量看跌蜡烛。
This concludes the seven logical events proposed by the Wyke-Off methodology. Keep in mind that these events don't always occur exactly like this. There's a lot of room for variation, so it's important to keep an open mind about that. We begin now with the study of market phases according to the Wyke-Off methodology. The seven logical events outlined by the Wyke-Off method form five different market phases. The identification of these phases has the main goal of providing context for the trader. In other words, the trader who uses the Wyke-Off method knows what to expect in each of the different phases, which is of great use, because it narrows down the possibilities and makes the analysis more objective to a certain degree. There are five phases labeled from A to E in the Wyke-Off method.
这就结束了威科夫（Wyke-Off）方法提出的七个逻辑事件的介绍。请记住，这些事件并不总是会完全按照这个顺序发生，变化空间很大，所以保持开放的心态非常重要。接下来我们开始研究根据威科夫方法划分的市场阶段。威科夫方法所概述的七个逻辑事件形成了五个不同的市场阶段。识别这些阶段的主要目的是为交易者提供背景信息。换句话说，使用威科夫方法的交易者知道在不同阶段可以预期什么，这非常有用，因为它缩小了可能性范围，使分析在某种程度上更加客观。在威科夫方法中，这五个阶段被标记为A到E。
Phase A represents the stop of the previous trend. Phase B represents the construction of the cause. Phase C represents the test. Phase D represents the trend inside the range. And phase E represents the trend outside the range, or the effect, so to speak. The Wyke-Off phase analysis is based on the premise that, generally speaking, the market reverses through a slow pattern, meaning that the well-informed traders need some time to absorb orders and effectively create a path of least resistance to the opposite side. Beyond that, the slow pattern outlined by the method provides repeatable patterns that, if correctly identified in real time, can provide an edge to the trader. Let's now explore each of the five market phases more carefully.
A阶段代表前一个趋势的停止。B阶段代表原因的构建。C阶段代表测试。D阶段代表区间内的趋势。而E阶段则代表区间外的趋势，或者说是结果。Wyke-Off阶段分析是基于这样一个前提：一般来说，市场是通过一个缓慢的模式进行反转的，这意味着消息灵通的交易者需要一些时间来吸收订单，并有效地创造一个阻力最小的路径到相反的一面。除此之外，该方法概述的缓慢模式提供了可重复的模式，如果能够实时正确识别这些模式，交易者就能获得优势。现在让我们更仔细地探讨这五个市场阶段。
We'll begin with phase A, which represents the stop of the previous trend. Phase A is composed by the first four logical events, the preliminary stop, the climax, the reaction, and the secondary test. In a general sense, phase A will provide the signs that the market is transitioning from a trend to a ranging market. The preliminary stop will provide a first indication that the well-informed traders have entered in the opposite side of the trend. The climax will create one of the boundaries of the range. The reaction will provide further indication that there is greater interest to the counter-trend direction and the opposite boundary of the range, and the secondary test will finish phase A. The trader is not supposed to look for trade opportunities in phase A. The trader must observe the four logical events from a distance and understand that they might lead to trade opportunities in the near future.
我们将从A阶段开始，这一阶段代表了之前趋势的结束。A阶段包含四个逻辑事件：初步停止、高潮、反应和二次测试。一般来说，A阶段会提供市场从趋势转变为震荡市场的迹象。初步停止显示出有经验的交易者已经逆势而入。高潮会形成震荡区间的一个边界。反应则进一步表明市场对逆趋势方向的兴趣增加，形成震荡区间的另一个边界，二次测试将结束A阶段。
在A阶段，交易者不应该寻找交易机会，而是应当从远处观察这四个逻辑事件，并理解它们可能在不久的将来带来交易机会。
Phase A is useful for taking profits from the prior trend, assuming the trader had a position. The reason for this is logical. Phase A means that the market is transitioning from training mode to ranging mode, makes sense to lock in the profits from the trending mode, especially because the market might reverse and start to eat the profits that have been made already. One challenge here is that the trader will not be able to tell if the market is in fact in phase A until the secondary test. There are three quick signs a trader should pay attention to in order to avoid a problem of incorrectly identifying phase A. Number one, look for a climatic volume either in the preliminary stop or the climax. That is an indication that the well-informed traders are in fact starting a campaign to reverse the market. Number two, pay attention to the reaction event. The reaction will provide further confirmation about the subtle signs of counter-trend volume found in the preliminary stop and climax. The reaction move tends to look qualitatively different than the previous counter-trend moved. Number three, but ultimately confirms phase A is phase B. So the trader must wait for the development of phase B before looking for trade opportunities, even when the first four logical events appear to provide clear trade setups.
A阶段对于在前一个趋势中获利的交易者是有用的，前提是交易者已经持有仓位。这其中的逻辑是合理的。A阶段表示市场正在从趋势模式过渡到震荡模式，因此锁定趋势模式中的利润是明智的，尤其是在市场可能反转并开始侵蚀已经获得的利润的时候。一个挑战在于，交易者无法在没有进行二次测试之前确认市场是否真的处于A阶段。为了避免错误识别A阶段，交易者应注意三个快速的信号。
第一，关注高潮量（climatic volume）出现在初步止损（preliminary stop）或高潮（climax）中的情况。这表明资深交易者确实开始了一项逆转市场的行动计划。
第二，留意反应事件（reaction event）。反应事件可以进一步确认初步止损和高潮中反趋势量（counter-trend volume）的微妙信号。反应移动往往在质上不同于之前的反趋势移动。
第三，最终确认A阶段的是B阶段。因此，尽管前四个逻辑事件出现后可能提供清晰的交易设置，交易者仍应等待B阶段的发展，然后再寻找交易机会。
For example, you might be tempting to look for a trade after the end of the reaction, aiming for the secondary test at the climax, even though that's possible, it's not what the methodology proposes. Just for the sake of illustration, phase A in an accumulation process looks like this. Preliminary support followed by the selling climax, then an automatic rally, and finally a secondary test. In a distribution process, phase A starts with the preliminary supply followed by the buying climax, then an automatic reaction, and finally a secondary test. Phase B can be a challenge because it is composed by successive secondary tests at both limits of the range.
例如，你可能会被诱惑在市场反应结束后寻找交易，目标是达到高峰时的二次测试，尽管这是可能的，但这并不是该方法论所建议的。为了说明问题，累积过程中的A阶段看起来是这样的：初步支撑，接着是卖出高潮，然后是自动反弹，最后是二次测试。在分配过程中，A阶段以初步供应开始，接着是买入高潮，然后是自动反应，最后是二次测试。B阶段可能会具有挑战性，因为它由区间两端的连续二次测试组成。
That's a challenge because these secondary tests might easily be mistaken by a breakout of the range, so it's key to pay attention to effort and results at the upper and lower limits of the accumulation or distribution processes. The key factor to pay attention to in phase B is time. In ideal scenarios, phase B should be longer than phase A in terms of time. The shorter the time duration of phase B, the more we approach the fast reversal patterns. By waiting for a phase B to have a longer time duration than phase A, a trader will usually avoid entering the market too soon. When phase B becomes longer than A, the trader can also increase his level of alertness while looking for a false breakout. In other words, two keys in phase B are the careful analysis of volume and price at the limits of the range. In the time duration of the phase, it should be greater than phase A. As a guideline, however, not a rule.
这是一项挑战，因为这些次要测试很容易被误认为是突破区间。因此，在累积或分配过程的上下限，重点是关注努力和结果。在B阶段，关键因素是时间。在理想情况下，B阶段的时间应比A阶段长。B阶段持续时间越短，我们就越接近快速反转模式。通过等待B阶段的时间比A阶段更长，交易者通常可以避免过早进入市场。当B阶段时间超过A阶段时，交易者也可以在寻找虚假突破时提高警惕。换句话说，B阶段的两个关键点是仔细分析区间上下限的成交量和价格。时间持续应比A阶段长，不过这是一个指导原则，而不是硬性规定。
In this illustration, we can see the textbook version of phase B in an accumulation structure. Recall that in an accumulation, the upper and minor false breakout in the form of a secondary test is called up-thrust action. In the lower and minor false breakout is called secondary test as a sign of weakness. Phase B ends just before the spring in an accumulation. In this other illustration, we can see the textbook version of phase B in a distribution structure. Recall that in a distribution, the upper and minor false breakout in the form of a secondary test is simply called up-thrust. In the lower and minor false breakout, in the form of a secondary test, is called minor sign of weakness. Phase B will end just before the up-thrust after distribution in the distribution.
在这张插图中，我们可以看到教科书中关于积累结构中B阶段的示意图。回顾一下，在积累阶段，上部的小突破假象形式的次级测试被称为“上推动作”。下部的小突破假象形式的次级测试被称为“弱点的次级测试”。B阶段结束于积累中的“春季”之前。在另一张插图中，我们可以看到教科书中关于分布结构中B阶段的示意图。回顾一下，在分布阶段，上部的小突破假象形式的次级测试简单地被称为“上推”。下部的小突破假象形式的次级测试被称为“弱点的小迹象”。B阶段将在分布结构中的“上推”之前结束。
Phase C is known as the test, and it is composed by the false breakout event, which is perhaps the most important of all logical events. In the ultimate point of the market manipulation maneuver, this is where well-informed traders will attempt to induce uninformed traders to one side of the market, with the sole purpose of generating liquidity to the opposite side. This is also a way the large traders have to test if the interest in the prior trend direction has faded. If the interest in the prior trend direction doesn't fade enough, the large traders campaign will fail, and the movement after the range will be a re-accumulation or a redistribution. If the interest in the prior trend direction does fade, the large traders campaign will be successful, and the market will reverse direction. This is mainly why phase C is denominated as the test. In an accumulation structure, phase C will simply be the spring, as you can see in this illustration. In a distribution structure, phase C will simply be the up-thrust after distribution, which is the mirror image of the spring.
C阶段被称为测试阶段，它由虚假突破事件组成，这是所有逻辑事件中可能最重要的。在市场操纵操作的最终阶段，这是信息丰富的交易者试图引导缺乏信息的交易者去市场一侧，唯一目的是为反方向产生流动性的一环。这也是大交易者测试前一趋势方向兴趣是否消退的方法。如果前一趋势方向的兴趣没有足够消退，大交易者的计划将失败，盘整后的动作将会是重新积累或重新分配。如果前一趋势方向的兴趣确实消退，大交易者的计划将会成功，市场将会反转方向。这主要是为什么C阶段被称为测试。在积累结构中，C阶段将简单地是“春天”，如图所示。在分配结构中，C阶段将简单地是“分配后的上拉”，这是“春天”的镜像。
Phase D is composed by the last two logical events, which are the breakout and the confirmation. There are mainly three possibilities in this phase. Price can create a clear breakout in confirmation, which is what traders will expect. Price can be entered after the breakout, with some hesitation to confirm and produce the new trend, where price can create another false breakout and restart phase D. Once again, all these things cannot be really anticipated. We'll have to look for the signs of volume and price, or effort and result using Wyckoff terminology in order to assess what is really going on. In an accumulation structure, phase D will be composed by the jump across the creek, followed by the last point of support event, as you can see in this illustration. In a distribution, phase D will be composed by the fall through the ice, followed by the last point of supply event, as you can see in this other illustration.
第D阶段由最后两个逻辑事件组成，即突破和确认。在这一阶段主要有三种可能性。价格可能会在确认时形成明显的突破，这是交易者期望看到的情况。价格在突破后可能会犹豫，未能确认并产生新趋势，这时价格可能会出现另一次假突破并重新开始第D阶段。再一次，这些情况不能提前预测。我们需要观察成交量和价格的迹象，或者使用Wyckoff术语中的“努力与结果”来评估实际情况。
在累积结构中，第D阶段由“跨越溪流”和随后的“支撑点事件”组成，如图所示。在分配结构中，第D阶段由“穿过冰层”和随后的“供应点事件”组成，如另一张图所示。
In phase E, price will be in fact trending outside the range. This phase will be composed by the impulse and corrective movements, where the harmonic relationship between price and volume is expected. Phase E will provide opportunities to enter the market in the direction of the main trend, as long as we don't see signs that the trend might be losing its strength, like the appearance of a preliminary stop, for example. In an accumulation, phase E will be marked by impulse movements labeled as sign of strength, and corrective movements labeled as last point of support, as you can see in this illustration. In a distribution, phase E will be marked by impulse movements labeled as sign of weakness, and corrective movements labeled as last point of supply, as you can see in this other illustration.
在E阶段，价格实际上会在范围之外波动。这个阶段由冲击和修正动作组成，预期价格和成交量之间会有和谐关系。E阶段将提供顺应主要趋势进入市场的机会，只要没有看到像初步停止这类趋势可能失去动力的迹象。在积累阶段，E阶段的冲击动作被标记为强势信号，修正动作被标记为支撑的最后一点，如图所示。在分配阶段，E阶段的冲击动作被标记为弱势信号，修正动作被标记为供应的最后一点，如另一张图所示。
It's important that you have the seven logical events and the corresponding market phases clear in your mind, before moving on to the study of structures. You should be able to tell what each of the logical events represent, in which phase they belong to, otherwise the study of structures will become very confusing. The study of market structures begins with a warning, even though we can study the theory of how structures should develop, in real markets, these structures never occur in the same way twice. The key takeaway here is to analyze these things, with some flexibility in mind. We'll begin the study by looking at horizontal structures, both in accumulation and distribution processes. Let's start with the accumulation process first.
在继续研究结构之前，重要的是你要在脑海中清晰掌握七个逻辑事件及其对应的市场阶段。你应该能够辨别每个逻辑事件代表什么，它们属于哪个阶段，否则对结构的研究会变得非常混乱。研究市场结构时，要注意一个警告：虽然我们可以研究结构应该如何发展的理论，但在实际市场中，这些结构从来不会以同样的方式出现两次。重要的一点是分析这些内容时要保持一定的灵活性。我们将首先研究水平结构，包括在吸筹阶段和派发阶段的结构。让我们从吸筹过程开始。
The on the seven logical events and its corresponding phases, there are two important things to pay attention to. One is the creek, which is the high produced by the automatic rally after the sailing climax. This is important because it's the level we want to see price break out of. The expression jump across the creek is precisely that. The other thing to pay attention to is the presence of changes of character, in any moments where the market transitions from trending to ranging, or vice versa.
关于七个逻辑事件及其对应的阶段，有两点需要特别注意。一是溪流，指的是在市场高潮后的自动反弹产生的高点。这一点很重要，因为我们希望看到价格突破这一水平。“跳过溪流”这个表达指的就是这一点。另一点需要注意的是市场性格的变化，特别是在市场从趋势转向震荡或者从震荡转向趋势的任何时刻。
The first change of character occurs in phase A, when the market goes from a downtrend to a sideways market, and the second change of character occurs in phases C and D, when the market goes from a sideways move into an uptrend. Let's quickly review the events and phases of an accumulation structure. Phase A will be composed by the preliminary support, the first attempt of well-informed traders to absorb supply, selling climax, which is the climatic sailing volume that ends the downtrend. The automatic rally, which is a no-port price movement that is qualitatively different than the previous counter trend moves, and shows a new interest to the opposite direction of the current trend, and the secondary test.
在阶段A中，市场从下跌趋势转为横盘整理，这是性格的首次变化；在阶段C和D中，市场从横盘整理转为上涨趋势，这是性格的第二次变化。让我们快速回顾一下积累结构的事件和阶段。阶段A包括初步支撑，即消息灵通的交易者首次尝试吸收供应，卖出高潮，这是一种结束下跌趋势的高峰成交量。自动反弹是一种与之前的反趋势不同的无支持价格运动，显示出对当前趋势反方向的新兴趣，和次级测试。
Which will test the degree of supply at the same price level of the sailing climax. The secondary test closes phase A and opens phase B. We call that phase A establishes the first change of character. Phase B is the construction of the cause. The sideways movement that precedes the new trend, where the effect as the Wyckoff method calls it. In the case of an accumulation, we have the up-thrust action, which is the test of the upper limit of the range established by the peak of the automatic rally, and the secondary test as a sign of weakness, which is the test of the lower limit of the range established by the trough of the sailing climax.
这将测试在同一价格水平下供应的程度，即在航海高潮时的水平。次级测试结束阶段A，开启阶段B。我们称阶段A为第一次特征变化的确立。阶段B是原因的构建，即新趋势前的横向运动，Wyckoff方法中称之为效果。在积累阶段，我们有上推动作，这是对自动反弹峰值所建立的区间上限的测试，而次级测试作为弱点信号，是对航海高潮谷底所建立的区间下限的测试。
In the case of an accumulation, phase C will begin with the spring. This is the false bearish breakouts, or bear trap that violates the lows produced in phase A and B. When the spring produces a violent movement to the downside, it is called a terminal shakeout. Phase C, which is composed only by the spring, is the beginning of the second change of character. After the spring, phase D begins, and that is composed by the trough breakout, which in the case of an accumulation is called sign of strength, or jump across the creek. In the confirmation event, which in this context is called last point of support.
在积累阶段中，C阶段将以“春天”开始。这是一个虚假的看跌突破，或称“空头陷阱”，它会突破在A和B阶段产生的低点。当“春天”导致剧烈的下跌时，这被称为终极震荡。只有“春天”构成的C阶段，是第二次性质变化的开始。在“春天”之后，D阶段开始，这阶段包含了低谷突破，在积累阶段中被称为力量标志或跨越小溪的跳跃。在确认事件中，这在此情境中被称为最后的支撑点。
This confirmation event can also be called back up to the edge of the creek. This is the final nail in the coffin of the second change of character. Now the market is in the trending upwards. Phase E is marked by successive signs of strength and last points of support, and the harmonic relationship between volume and price or effort and result. This generates the characteristic higher highs and higher lows of an uptrend. This is the complete horizontal accumulation structure according to the Wyckoff methodology.
这一确认事件也可以被称为回到小溪边缘。这是第二次性格变化的最后一根钉子。现在市场正处于上升趋势。E阶段的特点是连续的强劲信号和最终支撑点，以及成交量和价格或努力和结果之间的和谐关系。这产生了上升趋势中特有的更高的高点和低点。这就是根据沃科夫方法论的完整水平积累结构。
In the distribution structure, instead of the creek, we have the ice, which is the price level formed by the low of the automatic high-level price. The other thing to pay attention is the presence of changes of character, meaning moments where the market transitions from trending to ranging or vice versa. The first change of character occurs in Phase A, when the market goes from an uptrend to a sideways market, and the second change of character occurs in phases C and D, when the market goes from a sideways move into a downtrend. Let's quickly review the events and phases of the distribution.
在分布结构中，不是溪流，而是冰层，这代表由自动高价位的低点形成的价格水平。另一件需要注意的事情是特征变化的出现，这意味着市场从趋势转向震荡或反之亦然的时刻。第一次特征变化发生在A阶段，当市场从上升趋势转为横盘整理。第二次特征变化发生在C和D阶段，当市场从横盘整理转为下降趋势。让我们快速回顾一下分布的事件和阶段。
Phase A will be composed by the preliminary supply, the first attempt of well-informed traders to absorb demand. The buying climax, which is the climatic buying volume that ends the uptrend. The automatic reaction, which is a downward price movement that is qualitatively different than the previous counter trend moves, and shows a new interest to the opposite direction of the current trend. In the secondary test, which will test the degree of demand at the same price level of the buying climax. The secondary test closes Phase A and opens Phase B. We call that Phase A establishes the first change of character.
A阶段包括初步的供应，即信息丰富的交易者首次尝试吸收需求。随后是买入高潮，也就是结束上升趋势的剧烈买入量。接下来是自动回调，这是一个向下的价格运动，与之前的反趋势运动有明显不同，并显示出对当前趋势相反方向的新兴趣。在次级测试中，将测试买入高潮时同一价格水平的需求程度。次级测试结束后，A阶段结束，B阶段开始。我们称A阶段确立了第一个特征变化。
Phase B is the construction of the cause, the sideways movement that precedes the new trend, or the effect as the Wyckoff method determines. In the case of a distribution, we have the up thrust, which is the test of the upper limit of the range, established by the peak of the buying climax, and the minor sign of weakness, which is the test of the lower limit of the range, established by the trough of the automatic reaction. In the case of a distribution, Phase C will begin with the up thrust after distribution. This is the false bullish breakout, or bull trap, that violates the highs produced in Phase A and B.
阶段B是原因的构建，即在新趋势出现之前的横向移动，或者按照威科夫方法确定的结果。在派发阶段，我们会看到上涨试探，这是对由买盘高潮的峰值建立的范围上限的测试；同时还有轻微的疲弱信号，这是对由自动反应的谷底建立的范围下限的测试。在派发阶段，阶段C将从派发后的上涨试探开始。这是一个虚假的牛市突破，或牛市陷阱，会突破在阶段A和B中形成的高点。
After the up thrust after distribution, Phase D begins, and it is composed by the true breakout, which in the case of a distribution is called sign of weakness, or fall through the ice. In the confirmation event, which in this context is called last point of supply, this is the final nail in the coffin of the second change of character. Now the market is indeed trending downwards. Phase E is marked by successive signs of weakness and last points of supply, and the harmonic relationship between price and volume or effort and result. This generates the characteristic lower highs and lower lows of a downtrend. This is the complete horizontal distribution structure according to the Wyckoff methodology.
在经过分散后的上升推力后，阶段D开始，这一阶段包括真正的突破，在分散的情况下，这种突破被称为弱点信号或"冰层破裂"。在确认事件中，这种情况被称为最后供应点，这一事件是第二次性格变化的最后一颗钉子。现在市场确实开始向下趋势了。阶段E的特点是连续的弱点信号和最后的供应点，以及价格和成交量或努力与结果之间的协调关系。这会产生下降趋势中典型的越来越低的高点和低点。这就是按照Wyckoff方法论所描述的完整的水平分布结构。
Until now, we dealt with accumulation and distribution structures as if they always developed in a perfect horizontal motion, but in the real market, that's not always the case. This leads us to the idea of sloping structures. There are two rules to keep in mind. First is that sloping structures follow the exact same logical events and phases of horizontal structures. Second, an upward sloping structure generally means that buyers have more strength than sellers, and now are in sloping structures generally mean that sellers have more power than buyers. That means there are four possible types of sloping structures. The up sloping accumulation, the down sloping accumulation, the up sloping distribution, and the down sloping distribution.
直到现在，我们讨论的累积和分配结构似乎总是以完美的水平运动发展，但在实际市场中，情况并非总是如此。这引出了倾斜结构的概念。需要牢记两条规则。第一，倾斜结构遵循与水平结构完全相同的逻辑事件和阶段。第二，向上倾斜结构通常意味着买方比卖方更有力量，而向下倾斜结构通常意味着卖方比买方更有力量。这意味着有四种可能的倾斜结构类型：向上倾斜的累积，向下倾斜的累积，向上倾斜的分配，和向下倾斜的分配。
The events in phase A are critical for the determination of horizontal or sloping structures. Paying attention to phase A also allows the trader using the Wyckoff method to know where to ground channel lines, which is often a challenge to most traders who have too many options in their regard. Let's begin by analyzing the up sloping accumulation structure first. An accumulation is a structure that precedes an uptrend, the fact that it is up sloping denotes power from buyers. In other words, an up sloping accumulation is stronger than a horizontal accumulation. There is one critical detail that must be taken into account when dealing with an up sloping accumulation.
在阶段A中的事件对于确定水平或倾斜结构至关重要。关注阶段A还可以让使用Wyckoff方法的交易者知道在哪里划定通道线，这通常是大多数交易者面临的挑战，因为他们有太多的选择。让我们首先分析上倾累积结构。累积结构是指上升趋势前出现的结构，其上倾表明买方力量较强。换句话说，上倾累积要比水平累积更强。处理上倾累积时，有一个关键细节必须考虑。
Since the construction of the cause will be tilted upwards, the spring event will not necessarily break all the previous lows from phases A and B. It will probably break some of the previous lows, but not all of them unless we are talking about a terminal shakeout event, which is a deeper spring. The key point to remember here is to look for the breakout of some lows, but also to look for the breakout of the lower channel line. That will provide another perspective about the spring. Remember that an up sloping accumulation implies an already existing advantage to buyers, so the spring event will probably not be so dramatic.
由于原因的构建将向上倾斜，春天事件不一定会打破A阶段和B阶段的所有前低点。它可能会打破一些之前的低点，但不会全部打破，除非我们正在讨论一个深度的震荡事件，这是一个更深的春天。这里关键要记住的是，要寻找一些低点的突破，同时也要关注下方通道线的突破。这将提供关于春天的另一种视角。请记住，向上倾斜的累积意味着买家已经具有一定的优势，因此春天事件可能不会那么剧烈。
In the case of a down sloping accumulation, we also have a peculiar situation. A down sloping market implies weakness, and it will inevitably create lower highs and lower lows. That means it can be difficult to spot the spring event since the previous lows will be broken already. The key point here is that the spring event will have to be dramatic in order to create liquidity to the upside. Once again, it is important to keep an eye on the boundaries of the channel because that will help cage whether or not we are dealing with a simple secondary test or with the spring event. The mirror image of these last two situations is what occurs in sloping distribution structures.
在下坡积累的情况下，我们也遇到了一种特殊情况。下坡市场意味着疲软，它必然会创造更低的高点和低点。这意味着很难察觉到“春天”事件，因为前面的低点已经被打破了。关键在于，这个“春天”事件必须是非常显著的，以便产生向上的流动性。同样地，关注通道的边界非常重要，因为这有助于判断我们是面对一个简单的二次测试，还是“春天”事件。这种情况的镜像出现于倾斜的分布结构中。
Let's begin with the down sloping distribution. In this case, we will be looking for the up thrust after distribution event to break some of the previous highs, but since the construction of the cause is down sloping, the up thrust after distribution will probably not break off the previous highs, especially because there is already an advantage to sellers. The key is to look for some highs to be broken and then pay attention to the upper boundary of the channel to gauge whether or not we are dealing with the up thrust after distribution or simply an up thrust. In the case of an up sloping distribution, the construction of the cause will naturally produce higher highs. That means it will be difficult to detect the up thrust after distribution event if the trader doesn't pay attention to the boundaries of the channel. And of course, the relationship between effort and results, which is the main thing in the Wyckov method. In this case, the up thrust after distribution event will be characterized as an over extension in relation to the upper boundary of the channel.
我们先从向下倾斜的分配开始。在这种情况下，我们会寻找分配后的上冲事件，以打破之前的一些高点。然而，由于建立原因是向下倾斜的，分配后的上冲可能不会突破之前的高点，尤其是因为卖方已经占有优势。关键是要观察是否有一些高点被突破，然后注意通道的上边界，以判断我们面对的是分配后的上冲还是普通的上冲。
如果是向上倾斜的分配，构建原因自然会产生更高的高点。这意味着如果交易者不注意通道的边界，会很难检测到分配后的上冲事件。当然，在怀科夫方法中，努力与结果之间的关系是主要因素。在这种情况下，分配后的上冲事件会被表征为相对于通道上边界的过度延伸。
It's important that you know what each of these events and phases represent without thinking too much about them. In other words, it should become second nature to you. Note that the Wyckov method is a phase analysis method. Meaning that we want to understand which phase the market is in. The Elliott wave method, for example, is also a form of phase analysis. By understanding how price goes from an upward movement to a downward movement and vice versa, we can add an extra layer in the analysis.
重要的是，你要清楚这些事件和阶段各自代表什么，而不需要过多思考。换句话说，它们应该变成你的直觉。请注意，威科夫方法是一种阶段分析方法，意思是我们想要了解市场处于哪个阶段。例如，艾略特波浪理论也是一种阶段分析方法。通过理解价格如何从上升趋势转为下降趋势，反之亦然，我们可以在分析中增加更多维度。
Another way of looking at this is that we should be able to observe this price reversal method between the events of the Wyckov cycle. First and foremost, we need to establish what sign of strength and sign of weakness candles are. A sign of strength candle is a medium to wide range bullish candle stick with medium to high volume. In other words, it's a candle that shows intent to the upside. Remember once again that in the context of the Wyckov method, strength means upside and weakness means downside. Rather intuitively, a sign of weakness candle is a medium to wide range bearish candle with a medium to high volume. In other words, it's a candle that shows intent to the downside.
另一种看待这个问题的方法是，我们应该能够在威科夫周期的事件之间观察到这种价格反转的方法。首先，我们需要确定表示强势和弱势的蜡烛图类型。强势蜡烛是一种范围中等到宽泛的看涨蜡烛图，并且伴随着中等到高量的交易量。换句话说，这是一种显示上升意图的蜡烛。再次记住，在威科夫方法的背景下，强势意味着上涨，弱势意味着下跌。同样，弱势蜡烛是一种范围中等到宽泛的看跌蜡烛图，并且伴随着中等到高量的交易量。换句话说，这是一种显示下跌意图的蜡烛。
A sign of strength candle in an upward price movement marks a point of control of buyers and a sign of weakness candle in a downward price movement marks a point of control of sellers. When we are in an upward price movement and we are trying to anticipate a reversal to the downside, we will mark the extremes of the latest sign of strength candle. To confirm a reversal to the downside, we want to see a sign of weakness candle that closes below the lower extreme of the latest sign of strength candle. In the same way, when we are in a downward price movement and we are trying to anticipate a reversal to the upside, we will mark the extremes of the latest sign of weakness candle.
在价格上升时，一根表示强势的蜡烛代表买方的控制点；在价格下降时，一根表示弱势的蜡烛代表卖方的控制点。当价格处于上涨趋势，我们试图预测反转至下跌时，会标记最新强势蜡烛的最高和最低点。要确认价格反转向下，我们需要看到一根弱势蜡烛收盘价低于最新强势蜡烛的最低点。同样地，当价格处于下跌趋势，我们试图预测反转至上涨时，会标记最新弱势蜡烛的最高和最低点。
To confirm a reversal to the upside, we want to see a sign of strength candle that closes above the upper extreme of the latest sign of weakness candle. That's an objective way of verifying if the market has reversed according to the Wyckov method. The optimal way of using this technique is to align it with the knowledge of market context provided by the Wyckov method. One problem that arises in the Wyckov method is that not all market scenarios develop the textbook version of the Wyckov cycle. So if the trader tries to identify all the events and phases in the order they appear, the trader might be frustrated a lot of the times.
要确认市场反转向上，我们希望看到一根强势蜡烛的收盘价高于最近的弱势蜡烛的最高点。这是根据Wyckoff方法验证市场是否反转的客观方式。最佳使用这项技术的方法是将其与Wyckoff方法提供的市场背景知识结合起来。Wyckoff方法面临的一个问题是，并非所有市场情况都按照Wyckoff循环的教科书版本发展。因此，如果交易者试图按顺序识别所有事件和阶段，可能会常常感到沮丧。
It's necessary to realize that if it's not possible to recognize the textbook Wyckov cycle in a real price chart, it doesn't mean that the method cannot be used. By understanding how supplying the man and volume spread analysis work and the fact that an uptrend is preceded by an accumulation and a downtrend is preceded by a distribution, we can adapt the method to find trade opportunities. In the last parts of the course, we have seen examples of structures where either the spring or the up thrust after distribution is present, but there can be exceptions. The absence of a spring or up thrust after distribution is possible, and in this case, the situation is called structural failure.
需要明白的是，如果在实际的价格图表中无法识别教科书中的威科夫循环，并不意味着这个方法不能使用。通过理解供应需求和量价分析的运作原理，以及上升趋势前通常会有积累，下降趋势前通常会有分配的事实，我们可以调整该方法来寻找交易机会。在课程的最后部分，我们已经看到了结构中存在弹簧（spring）或分配后的上冲（up thrust）的例子，但也可能有例外。如果在分配后没有出现弹簧或上冲的情况，这种情况称为结构性失败。
The rationale here is simple. Once we identify two limits of a ranging market, and at some point price fails to reach one of them, and then produces a breakout in confirmation on the other direction, we are facing a structural failure. Note that this structural failure can happen in sloping structures as well. As we have been doing so far in the course, when price fails to reach a resistance line, we have weakness. When price fails to reach a support, we have strength. One common problem in the Wyckoff method is to differentiate between an accumulation and distribution structure.
这个道理很简单。当我们确定了一个横盘市场的两个界限，而某个时候价格未能达到其中一个界限、接着在另一个方向上出现突破时，这就是结构性失败。需要注意的是，这种结构性失败也可以发生在斜坡结构中。正如我们在课程中所做的那样，当价格未能达到阻力线时，我们就称之为“弱势”；当价格未能达到支撑线时，我们称之为“强势”。Wyckoff方法中的一个常见问题是区分累积结构和分配结构。
There is no guaranteed way of distinguishing between an accumulation and distribution structure in real time, otherwise profiting with the Wyckoff method would be easy. We cannot know for sure until the effect occurs, but at the same time, we need to make trading decisions before the effect occurs. In other words, there will always be uncertainty about whether we are dealing with an accumulation or distribution structure. With that said, there is a checklist of things you can pay attention to in order to eliminate some of this uncertainty. Number one, the location of the secondary test in phase A. The price level where the secondary test in phase A occurs can be an indication of losing control of the market. A secondary test landing in the middle of the range implies neutrality.
实时区分累积和分配结构的方法没有保证，否则用Wyckoff方法盈利就会变得很容易了。我们不能确定知道结果什么时候会发生，但同时，我们需要在结果发生之前做出交易决策。换句话说，我们始终无法完全确定我们是在处理累积结构还是分配结构。尽管如此，有一些你可以关注的检查点，以减少这种不确定性。首先，第一个检查点是A阶段次级测试的位置。在A阶段次级测试发生的价格水平可以表明市场是否失去控制。次级测试位于区间中间意味着中立。
A secondary test landing in the upper third of the range implies an imbalance in favor of buyers. And a secondary test landing in the lower part of the range implies an imbalance in favor of sellers. Number two, tests in phase B. Just like it's useful to observe the secondary test in phase A. We can derive meaningful information by observing the tests in phase B. When price tests the upper limit of the range will have a sign of strength. When price tests the lower part of the range will have a sign of weakness. Remember also that price failing to test one of the limits of the range is also assigned as we saw before with the structural failures. The most important thing is to analyze if these tests are being used as minor false breakouts by observing volume spread analysis. Number three, the false breakout in phase C. This is the most important moment in the Wyke of Method. Recall that a false breakout must be followed by a movement in the other direction that breaks the range and produces a confirmation. Otherwise we are not talking about false breakout event anymore.
上段次要测试出现在区间上部三分之一处表明买方占优，而次要测试出现在区间下部表明卖方占优。第二点，B阶段的测试。就像观察A阶段的次要测试一样，对B阶段的次要测试进行观察也能提供有意义的信息。当价格测试区间上限时，会表现出强势信号；当价格测试区间下限时，则会表现出弱势信号。另外要记住，如果价格未能测试区间的其中一个界限，这也是一种信号，就像之前提到的结构性失败一样。最重要的是要通过观察成交量扩展分析来判断这些测试是否只是小幅假突破。
第三点，C阶段的假突破。这是 Wyckoff 方法中最重要的时刻。记住，假突破必须随之而来的是相反方向的突破动作，并且打破区间产生确认。否则，我们就不能再将其称为假突破事件了。
Number four, effort and result in phase D. Ideally after a false breakout event the trader wants to see candlesticks increasing their range in the opposite direction and volume starting to increase also. That's an indication that price will indeed break the opposite end of the false breakout. For example after a spring the trader wants to see sign of strength candles and volume picking up. After an up thrust after distribution the trader wants to see sign of weakness candles and volume picking up. Number five, volume pattern during the cause. Although the volume pattern during the development of the cause is relatively the same in both accumulation and distribution structures, meaning that volume will decrease or stay relatively the same before increasing during phase D. There can be slight differences in volume between accumulation and distribution. Decreasing volume during the construction of the cause is more common during accumulation structures. Constant volume and or unusual volume patterns during the construction of the cause is more common in distribution structures simply because the urge to sell is usually greater than the urge to buy. It's time now to start combining everything that we learned so far into a more integrated trading approach. We begin this study by realizing that the theory you have studied so far about the seven logical events, the market phases, and the relationship between price and volume will provide a contextual framework for the trader using the Wyke of Method. This framework can be the difference between being on the right side of the market or not, and liking other methods of phase analysis such as the Elliott Wave Theory. There is a sense that the trader is no longer lost when looking at the price chart.
第四点，努力和结果在D阶段。理想情况下，在出现假突破事件后，交易者希望看到蜡烛图的波动范围在相反方向上增加，并且成交量开始增加。这表明价格确实会突破假突破的相反端。例如，在弹跳后，交易者希望看到强势的蜡烛图和成交量增加。而在分配后的上冲后，交易者希望看到弱势的蜡烛图和成交量增加。
第五点，酝酿阶段的成交量模式。虽然在酝酿原因的过程中，累积结构和分配结构的成交量模式相对相同，意味着在D阶段增加之前成交量会减少或保持相对不变，但在累积和分配之间的成交量上可能会有些微差别。在累积结构中，原因构建过程中成交量减少更为常见。在分配结构中，原因构建过程中成交量恒定或出现异常成交量模式更为常见，因为卖出的冲动通常大于买入的冲动。
现在是时候将我们到目前为止学到的所有东西结合起来，形成一个更为综合的交易方法。我们开始这一学习，通过意识到你迄今为止所研究的关于七个逻辑事件、市场阶段以及价格和成交量之间关系的理论，将为使用Wyckoff方法的交易者提供一个背景框架。这个框架可能决定你是否站在市场的正确一方，就像其他阶段分析方法例如艾略特波浪理论一样。当看着价格图表时，交易者不再感到迷茫。
Another interesting aspect that we haven't talked about yet, but it certainly adds to the Wyke of Method is the use of other volume tools beyond the volume histogram, like the volume profile in the VWAP. The volume profile is a way to analyze market activity at different price levels, while the volume histogram shows market activity in the temporal dimension. The VWAP is a type of averaging that is commonly used in the institutional domain, and it's nothing more than a moving average adjusted for volume. We can base the VWAP on sessions, weeks, months, or anchor it in specific highs and lows, which is an interesting alternative. Volume analysis can be a whole course on its own, so focus on the most basic elements.
另一个我们还没讨论过，但肯定为Wyke方法增加价值的有趣方面，是使用除成交量直方图之外的其他成交量工具，比如VWAP（成交量加权平均价）中的成交量轮廓。成交量轮廓是一种在不同价格水平上分析市场活动的工具，而成交量直方图展示的是时间维度上的市场活动。VWAP是一种常用于机构领域的平均计算方法，本质上就是一个按成交量调整的移动平均数。我们可以基于交易时段、星期或月份来计算VWAP，还可以锚定在特定的高点和低点，这是一个有趣的替代方案。成交量分析本身就可以成为一门完整的课程，所以请专注于最基础的元素。
With that said, we can move on to the guidelines of how Wyke of Traders should look for opportunities in the market. According to the Wyke of Methodology, the trader should only look for trade opportunities in phases C, D, and E. In other words, in the false breakout of phase C, in the trend inside the range of phase D, and or in the trend outside the range of phase E. Notice that the highest quality trade opportunity of all lies in phase C because of its risk-reward potential. It's the highest quality trade, but it's also the more difficult one to catch in real time. Let's look at the possibilities in each of these three market phases.
有了这些前提，我们可以继续讨论 Wyke 交易者应当如何在市场中寻找机会的指南。根据 Wyke 方法论，交易者应该只在 C、D 和 E 阶段寻找交易机会。换句话说，即在 C 阶段的虚假突破中，D 阶段范围内的趋势中，或者 E 阶段范围外的趋势中寻找机会。请注意，在所有阶段中，C 阶段的交易机会质量最高，因为它具有最佳的风险回报潜力。这是质量最高的交易机会，但也是实时捕捉起来最困难的。现在，让我们来看一看在这三个市场阶段中的各种可能性。
Phase C. There are mainly two ways of entering the trade in phase C. The trader can enter in the false breakout itself, or he can enter in the test of the false breakout, which happens right after, and it's a slightly less uncertain type of trade. In the spring, the test will be slightly above the extreme produced by the spring, and in the up-thrust after distribution, the test will be slightly below the level produced by the up-thrust after distribution. Mechanics of the false breakout entry.
阶段C。进入交易主要有两种方式。交易者可以在假突破发生时进入，或者他可以在假突破后的测试中进入，这种方式的不确定性稍低一些。在"春天"（价格大幅下跌后反弹）的情况下，测试点通常略高于由"春天"产生的极端点；而在"极限上升后的分布"情况下，测试点会略低于由这个过程产生的水平。假突破进入的操作原理。
In a false breakout, there will usually be a wide range candle, and in that context, we want to observe the different ways of analyzing effort and result per volume and price. The first thing to pay attention here is that a wide range candle in a false breakout should have low volume. That's a sign of divergence according to VSA, since wide range candles usually have high volume to confirm their direction. The second thing is to observe the subsequent shift. In a divergent subsequent shift, price will start to change direction right after a wide range candle. During the appearance of the divergent subsequent shift, there might be a sign of weakness or sign of strength candle in the opposite direction of the false breakout, indicating that a trade can be opened.
在假突破情况下，通常会出现宽幅震荡的蜡烛，在这种情况下，我们需要观察分析成交量和价格的不同方法。首先要注意的是，假突破中的宽幅蜡烛应该伴随较低的成交量。根据VSA理论，这是一个背离的信号，因为正常情况下宽幅蜡烛通常有较高的成交量来确认其方向。其次，需要观察随后的价格变化。在背离情况下，价格会在宽幅蜡烛出现后立即改变方向。在随后的背离变化中，可能会在假突破的反方向出现一个明显的弱势或强势的蜡烛，这表明可以进行交易。
Let's first take the example of an accumulation structure. In this case, we'll see a low volume wide range candle breaking the lower limit of the range, as the first divergent signal. The second divergent signal happens with the subsequent shift. One of the common triggers is to wait for a sign of strength candle to appear, indicating that sellers have been maneuvered by the spring, and our price is truly headed to the upside. In the case of a distribution, we have the same situation but upside down. We'll see a low volume wide range candle breaking the upper limit of the range, as the first divergent signal. The second divergent signal happens with the subsequent shift.
让我们先举一个积累结构的例子。在这种情况下，我们会看到一个低成交量大范围的蜡烛图突破区间的下限，这是第一个分歧信号。第二个分歧信号出现在随后的变化中。一个常见的触发条件是等待一个强势蜡烛图出现，这表明卖家已经被“弹簧”操作，而我们的价格真正在向上移动。
在分配结构的情况下，情况是一样的，但方向相反。我们会看到一个低成交量大范围的蜡烛图突破区间的上限，这是第一个分歧信号。第二个分歧信号出现在随后的变化中。
One of the common triggers is to wait for a sign of weakness candle to appear, indicating that buyers have been maneuvered by the up thrust after distribution. And our price is truly headed to the downside. If you don't remember what a divergent subsequent shift or the patterns of volume spread analysis, check out part one of the course in the YouTube card. Mechanics of the test after the false breakout entry.
常见的触发方法之一是等待出现一个弱势的蜡烛图，这表明买家在分配后的上推中被操纵了。而我们的价格确实正在下跌。如果你不记得什么是分歧性的后续变化或成交量扩展分析的模式，可以查看课程的第一部分，链接在YouTube卡片中。测试在虚假突破后入场的机制。
In addition to everything that was outlined in the false breakout entry, in the test that can occur right after, we want to pay attention to supporting resistance breakout analysis in the context of VSA. Meaning that we should look for the appearance of no supply or no demand candles, depending on whether we are talking about an accumulation or distribution structure. We want to see the main breakout level being respected. Another possibility is a narrow range candle with high volume at the support or resistance, which means that the line indeed represents a barrier for price. Ideally, the trader wants to wait for the appearance of a sign of strength in the direction of the effect.
除了之前提到的虚假突破进场之外，在紧接其后的测试中，我们要关注在成交量扩展分析（VSA）背景下的支撑位和阻力位突破分析。也就是说，我们要查看“无供应”或“无需求”蜡烛的出现，具体取决于我们是在谈论累积结构还是分配结构。我们希望看到主要的突破水平受到尊重。另一种可能是出现窄范围、但高成交量的蜡烛在支撑位或阻力位上，这意味着该位置确实是价格的障碍。理想情况下，交易者希望等待出现一个力量信号，指示价格将在某个方向上有所变化。
In the case of an accumulation, we want to see everything we have seen in the first type of trigger, meaning the wide range low volume candles tick in the divergent subsequent shift. Now we want to see price retracing to the support. Notice that either low volume or high volume can confirm the support in this case. The key here is observing how price action behaves in relation to the support line. You want to see a lower tail representing some sort of reaction to the support in a sign of strength candle after to signal a trigger to the upside.
在积累的情况下，我们希望看到我们在第一类型触发器中所见的一切，这意味着宽幅低量蜡烛在随后的分歧变化中出现。现在我们希望看到价格回撤到支撑位。请注意，在这种情况下，低量或高量都可以确认支撑。关键是观察价格行为如何与支撑线互动。你希望看到一个有下影线的蜡烛，这代表对支撑位的某种反应，在后续蜡烛中表现出强势信号，触发价格向上。
In the case of a distribution, we want to see everything we have seen in the first type of trigger, meaning the wide range low volume candles tick in the divergent subsequent shift. Now we want to see price retracing to the resistance. Notice that either low volume or high volume can confirm the resistance in this case. The key here is observing how price action behaves in relation to the resistance line. You want to see an upper tail representing some sort of reaction to the resistance in a sign of weakness candle after to signal a trigger to the downside.
在分布的情况下，我们希望看到我们在第一种触发中看到的所有内容，这意味着宽范围低成交量的烛台在之后的偏移中出现差异。现在，我们希望看到价格回撤到阻力位。注意，在这种情况下，低成交量或高成交量都可以确认阻力位。关键是观察价格动作如何与阻力线互动。你希望看到一个上影线，代表某种对阻力的反应，这是一个显示弱势的信号，表明触发下行走势。
Entries in phase D. In phase D, there are a couple of opportunities to enter the market. One will be in the trend movement that occurs inside the range right after the test after the false breakouts, and the second opportunity would be in the last logical event, the test right after price breaks out of the range. Mechanics of the entry inside the range. The main way we look for an entry in the trending part inside the range in phase D is to look for the appearance of intent candles after a minor extreme.
阶段D中的进入点。在阶段D，有几个进入市场的机会。一个是在假突破后的测试之后，出现的趋势运动中进入，另一个机会是在最后一个逻辑事件中，即价格突破区间后紧随的测试中进入。
区间内的进入机制。我们在阶段D中寻找区间内趋势部分的进入点的主要方法是，在出现小幅极端情况后，寻找带有意图的蜡烛线。
For example, in an accumulation structure, we want to see a sign of strength candle right after a minor low. In the distribution structure, we want to see a sign of weakness candle right after a minor high. In this illustration, you can see a textbook example of an entry inside the range. Observe how the trigger occurs after a sign of strength candle appears right after a minor low. In this next illustration, you can see an example of an entry inside the range.
例如，在累积结构中，我们希望在一个小低点之后，看到一个强势信号的蜡烛图。而在分布结构中，我们希望在一个小高点之后，看到一个弱势信号的蜡烛图。在这个例子中，你可以看到教材中的一个在区间内入场的典型例子。观察触发点是如何在小低点之后出现强势信号蜡烛图的。在下一个例子中，你可以看到另一个区间内入场的例子。
Observe how the trigger occurs after a sign of weakness candle appears right after a minor high. Mechanics of the entry at the test. Since we are dealing with price hitting a support or resistance line in this case, we want to observe volume spread carefully. We want to see price respecting the line either with no supply or no demand candles or with high volume narrow range candles. Interestingly enough, low and high volume work well in this case. After that, we want to see price moving in the trend direction with an intent candle. That's the trigger for the trade.
观察在出现次要高点后，紧接着出现的弱势烛台如何触发交易信号。在测试时的入场操作。由于我们在这个案例中处理的是价格触及支撑或阻力线，我们需要仔细观察成交量的变化。我们希望看到价格在支撑或阻力线上保持不变，伴随着低供给或低需求的烛台，或者高成交量但窄幅波动的烛台。有趣的是，在这种情况下，低成交量和高成交量都能很好地发挥作用。之后，我们希望看到价格以一种明确的意图烛台沿着趋势方向移动。这就是交易的触发点。
In this illustration, you can see an example of an entry at the seventh logical event in the case of an accumulation structure. In this next illustration, you can see an example of an entry at the seventh logical event in the case of a distribution structure. Phase E. In phase E, the types of entries are the same as the ones found in phase D. The difference is that in phase E, since we'll be in the stage where the trend has developed to some degree already, the risk-reward ratios might not be so attractive.
在这幅插图中，你可以看到在积累结构中第七个逻辑事件的实例。在下一幅插图中，你可以看到在分布结构中第七个逻辑事件的实例。
阶段E。在阶段E中，进入市场的方式与阶段D相同。不同的是，在阶段E中，由于趋势已经在某种程度上发展起来了，风险回报比可能不那么有吸引力。
In the case of an uptrend, we want to observe the divergent relationship between effort and result, forming a last point of support, and then observe price resuming trend direction with a sign of strength candle ideally. In the case of a downtrend, we want to observe the divergent relationship between effort and result, forming a last point of supply, and then observe price resuming trend direction with a sign of weakness candle ideally. This can be done until signs of a preliminary stop begin to appear.
在上升趋势中，我们需要观察努力与结果之间的背离关系，形成最后一个支撑点，然后观察价格在一个理想的强势蜡烛下恢复趋势方向。 在下降趋势中，我们需要观察努力与结果之间的背离关系，形成最后一个供应点，然后观察价格在一个理想的弱势蜡烛下恢复趋势方向。 这可以一直进行，直到出现初步停滞的迹象为止。
In terms of money management, all the entries suggested by the Wyckoff method occur near a significant high or low, so the stop loss can be placed in there. For example, if we are talking about an entry after the false breakout, the stop loss can be placed just below the lowest point of the spring, or just above the highest point of the up thrust after distribution. In most cases, the trade will be triggered with a sign of strength or sign of weakness candle that happens right after a low or a high.
在资金管理方面，威科夫方法建议的所有入场点都位于重要的高点或低点附近，因此止损可以放在这些位置。例如，如果我们在假突破之后入场，那么止损可以放在弹簧的最低点之下，或者是在分布后的上冲最高点之上。在大多数情况下，交易会在一个强势或弱势的K线出现之后触发，而这些K线通常发生在一个低点或高点之后。
The trader can use these recent lows or highs to place a safe stop loss order. In terms of take profit targets, if the reading of the market is correct, the idea is to ride the trend until the market begins to display signs that the trend might start to reverse soon. In the Wyckoff method, this sign is the preliminary stop. The best rate possible under the Wyckoff method is to enter the false breakout and only get out after the trend or the effect has fully developed, and preliminary stops begin to appear.
交易者可以利用这些近期的最低点或最高点来设置一个安全的止损订单。关于获利目标，如果对市场的判断是正确的，建议是顺势而为，直到市场出现可能即将反转的迹象。在威科夫方法中，这个迹象被称为初步停顿。在威科夫方法中，最佳的操作是进入假突破，并且只在趋势或效应完全发展后并出现初步停顿时离场。
That will ensure a massive risk-reward ratio, but that's an ideal scenario, of course. It will not happen all the time. In this illustration, you can see the ideal scenario when it comes to stop loss and take profit orders in an accumulation structure. The red lines represent the stop loss placement levels, and the green rectangle represents the ideal take profit area, assuming that is the area where preliminary stops begin to appear. In this other illustration, you can see the optimal levels in the distribution structure. One thing that should be clear to you is that the deeper into the effect you enter the market, the less reliable the trade because the higher the chance of entering near a preliminary stop, therefore yielding a lower risk-reward potential. With these illustrations, it also becomes clear why the entry at the spring or of thrust after distribution is the best rate you can take. It has a very small stop loss order, and it captures most of the effect, therefore yielding a great risk-reward potential. Money management can also be a whole course on its own. In this course, I will leave it at just showing the optimal places to put stop and take profit orders, where there are many different techniques you can apply here in order to maximize your results like trailing stops or risk collapsing, for example, but that's for another day.
这将确保一个高的风险回报比，但当然，这是理想情况下。并不是每次都能如此。在这个例子中，你可以看到在累积结构中设置止损和止盈订单的理想情况。红线代表止损设置位置，假设初步止损开始出现的区域是绿色矩形所表示的理想止盈区域。在另一张图中，你可以看到在分配结构中的最佳水平。你应该明白的一件事是，进入市场越深入，交易的可靠性就越低，因为越有可能在初步止损附近进入，从而降低风险回报潜力。通过这些插图，你也可以清楚地看到，为什么在初次反弹或在分配后上涨时进入交易是最好的选择。这样的进场点有非常小的止损订单，并且捕捉大部分的收益，从而带来极好的风险回报潜力。资金管理本身也可以是一个完整的课程。在本课程中，我只向你展示了设置止损和止盈订单的最佳位置，这里还有许多不同的技巧可以用来优化你的结果，比如追踪止损或风险折叠，但这是以后的内容。
It's time now to see how all these ideas and concepts about the Wyckoff method play out in real price charts. When it comes to the financial markets, the gap between theory and practice can be quite significant. In these examples, you will notice how you shouldn't take these specific rules of the Wyckoff methodology so seriously, meaning that you should only pay attention to the general aspect of the theory. A similar effect happens with the Elliot Wave theory. If you take all the rules too seriously, the method becomes too hard to apply in real markets. It works best when you take the most powerful rules into account with a decent dose of flexibility.
现在是时候来看看这些关于威科夫方法的想法和概念在实际价格图表中是如何运作的了。在金融市场中，理论与实践之间的差距可能相当大。在这些例子中，你会发现不要过于严格地遵守威科夫方法中的具体规则，而是应该只关注理论的一般方面。类似的情况也出现在艾略特波浪理论中。如果你对所有规则都过于较真，整个方法在实际市场中就会变得很难应用。所以，最好是灵活地运用最有力的规则。
We begin with an example of a horizontal distribution structure in the 3-minute chart of the EuroUSD. On the left of the chart, I marked a preliminary stop in an exhaustion event. The first detail here is the prominent upper tail in the preliminary stop. As it was demonstrated in the theoretical part of the course, that's an early sign that the well-informed traders are getting on the opposite side of the main trend. In other words, in this example, this is an early indication that the well-informed traders are starting to absorb demand. Notice how after this preliminary stop, the uptrend angle becomes less steep, which is a sign that the trend is slowing down. The uptrend produces a higher high after a while, but with lower volume. That represents the divergence between effort and result, and in this case, it's more of an exhaustion rather than a climatic event. A higher high should produce a higher peak in volume if the momentum behind the trend was intact, but that is not the case.
我们从一个欧元兑美元3分钟图表中的水平分布结构示例开始。在图表的左侧，我标记了一个初步的停顿，这是一个耗竭事件。这里的第一个细节是初步停顿中的显著上影线。正如课程理论部分所示，这是消息灵通的交易者站在主要趋势对立面上的早期信号。换句话说，在这个例子中，这是一个早期迹象，表明消息灵通的交易者开始吸收买盘。注意在这个初步停顿之后，上升趋势的角度变得不那么陡峭，这标志着趋势在减速。尽管上升趋势之后创造了一个更高的高点，但成交量却减少了。这代表了努力和结果之间的背离，在这种情况下，这更多的是一种耗竭而不是高峰事件。如果趋势背后的动能完好无损，一个更高的高点应该伴随更高的成交量，但实际情况并非如此。
The market then starts to produce what would be the automatic reaction event, and it goes back to the last significant load that occurred right after the preliminary stop. Something peculiar happens in this distribution structure, which is the fact that the market has a hard time testing both ends of the range determined by the exhaustion and the automatic reaction. Eventually, price starts to go in the direction of the level determined by the exhaustion event and breaks that level with a wide-range bullish candle. Notice that there is an increase in volume in this candle, but not as much as you would expect given its wide range. This is one of the signs of an up-thrust after-distribution event. A wide-range bullish candle with low volume inducing uninformed buyers to the upside. Right after this candle, we have a divergent subsequent shift. Notice how price begins to fall immediately after it breaks out of the range. See how volume also starts to pick up after this. This is the most important event in the distribution. Price goes directly into the level determined by the automatic reaction, but it doesn't break it.
市场接下来开始表现出自动反应的迹象，并回到初步停顿后最近一次显著的负载水平。在这个分配结构中，一个特别之处是市场很难测试范围两端，即耗尽区和自动反应区。最终，价格开始向耗尽事件确定的水平移动，并用一个大范围的看涨蜡烛突破了这个水平。注意，这根蜡烛的成交量有所增加，但并不像你预期的那样多，考虑到它的大范围。这是分配之后上升推力事件的一个标志：一个低成交量的大范围看涨蜡烛引诱不知情的买家买入。紧接着这根蜡烛，我们看到一个相反的后续变动。注意，当价格突破范围后，立即开始下跌。观察成交量也从此开始上升。这是分配过程中最重要的事件。价格直接进入由自动反应确定的水平，但并没有突破。
And right after that, it goes back to test the level determined by the exhaustion. By this time, we already have an up-thrust after-distribution, so we can think about a short trade at the test of this line. This is the highest quality trade according to the Wyke of Method. Price eventually falls through the ice and then comes back to produce the last event in the textbook Wyke of Cycle, which provides another opportunity to enter the market. The takeaway here is to observe that the seven logical events don't usually develop in their textbook version. There is a lot of room for variation. Now we are going to see an example of accumulation structure in the one-hour timeframe of the British pound versus the US dollar. Once again, we have a real market example developing with some degree of variation in comparison to the textbook version of the slow reversal pattern outlined in the Wyke of Method.
接下来，价格回到先前由于疲劳而确定的水平进行测试。这个时候，我们已经有一次在分配后的上冲，所以可以考虑在这条线的测试点做一个空头交易。这是根据Wyckoff方法的最高质量交易。价格最终跌破冰点，然后回升，产生了教科书中Wyckoff循环的最后一个事件，这提供了另一个进入市场的机会。这里的要点是，七个逻辑事件通常不会完全按照教科书上的版本发展，有很多变化的空间。现在我们将看到一个在一小时时间框内有关英镑兑美元的累积结构的例子。再次强调，我们看到一个真实的市场例子，其发展与Wyckoff方法中描述的缓慢反转模式教科书版本相比，存在一定程度的变化。
On the left, we have a preliminary stop. Recall that a preliminary stop is called preliminary supply in a distribution structure and a preliminary support in an accumulation structure, but both are forms of preliminary stops. Notice the prominent lower shadow of the candlestick that forms the low, which indicates some sort of supply absorption from the well-informed traders. Notice also the increase in volume in this area. Notice how the increase in volume is greater than the reaction in price, denoting that well-informed traders have absorbed some supply in a narrow price range due to a liquidity pool. Next, we have a climax event marked by a very wide range bearish candle and a spike in volume. The climax event is usually one of the easiest ones to spot due to the violence of the movement. The automatic rally and the climax form the upper and lower extremes of the accumulation structure respectively. From now on, the unconventional part of the accumulation structure begins.
在左侧，我们有一个初步停顿。记住，在分配结构中，初步停顿称为初步供应，而在累积结构中，则称为初步支撑，但两者都是初步停顿的形式。注意形成低点的蜡烛图下影线较长，这表明一些消息灵通的交易者可能吸收了供应量。还要注意该区域的成交量增加。还要注意，成交量的增加幅度大于价格反应，这表明消息灵通的交易者在一个狭窄的价格范围内通过流动性池吸收了一些供应。
接下来，我们看到一个高潮事件，该事件标志着一个非常宽范围的看跌蜡烛图和成交量激增。高潮事件通常是最容易识别的，因为它的波动非常剧烈。自动反弹和高潮分别形成了累积结构的上下极限。从现在开始，累积结构的不寻常部分就开始了。
We have a series of secondary tests as sign of weakness, which could easily be mistaken by a spring event. The first secondary test as a sign of weakness does serve the purpose of inducing sellers to the downside so that well-informed traders go long, but in this case, this is not the spring event yet. The series of secondary tests form a few lows that will be used later in the real spring event. In the spring event, price comes back down and breaks two lows, which would trigger sellers to the downside again just so that well-informed traders could enter in long positions once again. Notice that at this time, there is a wide-range bullish candle with a prominent lower shadow and a huge spike in volume. This volume spike comes from two things. The uninformed seller is going to the downside due to the breakdown of some important lows, and perhaps most importantly, from the well-informed buyers observing all of the supply and making the market turn to the upside. A trade can be taken at this point, where after price comes back to the climax level after testing the automatic rally after the spring.
我们有一系列的次级测试，这些测试被视为市场弱势的迹象，容易被误认为是弹簧事件。第一次次级测试作为弱势的信号，目的是引诱卖家压低价格，这样精明的交易者可以做多，但在这种情况下，这还不是弹簧事件。这一系列的次级测试形成了几个低点，这些低点将在真正的弹簧事件中被利用。在弹簧事件中，价格会再次回落并突破两个低点，这将再次引发卖家抛售，以便精明的交易者能再次进入多头仓位。
请注意，此时会出现一根带有显著下影线的大幅看涨蜡烛，并且伴随着大幅的成交量激增。这种成交量激增的原因有两个：无知的卖家由于一些重要低点的突破而继续卖出，更重要的是，精明的买家观察到市场供给后，使市场开始转向上升。此时可以进行交易，在价格反弹到弹簧事件后的自动反弹水平后进行测试交易。
Observe that the most important thing in this method is to pay attention to volume spread analysis, memorizing the names of each event in phase is secondary. Let's now move on to a few conclusions about the Wyke of Method. The Wyke of Method is attractive to a lot of traders because it provides a roadmap for the market very much like the Elliott Wave Theory does. The feeling of no longer being lost among many highs and lows in the chart is certainly appealing to all traders, but it comes with a caveat. Like in the Elliott Wave Theory, the rules of the Wyke of Method tend to be too specific in my opinion, and that diminishes the reliability of the method. Any method that attempts to box the market into a set of rules will always be unreliable.
请注意，这种方法中最重要的是关注成交量扩散分析，记住每个阶段事件的名称是次要的。现在，让我们对威科夫方法总结几点结论。威科夫方法吸引了许多交易员，因为它像艾略特波浪理论一样给市场提供了一个路线图。不再迷失在图表中众多的高点和低点之中，这种感觉对所有交易员来说无疑是有吸引力的，但这里有一个警告。就像艾略特波浪理论一样，威科夫方法的规则在我看来过于具体，降低了方法的可靠性。任何试图将市场框定在特定规则中的方法都会始终不可靠。
The correct step is to use a method that reacts to whatever the market does instead of trying to claim what the market should do in each situation. You will notice that in the Wyke of Method, it is very difficult to find market scenarios that fit a slow reversal pattern in the way that is suggested. The real market does endless variations of such slow reversal pattern. For this reason, I believe it's much better to pay attention to volume spread analysis alone instead of trying to identify which phase the market is in or which event of the Wyke of Cycle the market is in. Volume spread analysis is a method that can be applied much more easily and reliably in basically all price movements.
正确的方法是采用一种能对市场变化做出反应的方法，而不是试图预测市场在每种情况下应该如何表现。你会注意到，在威科夫方法中，很难找到符合缓慢反转模式的市场情景。实际上，真实的市场会以无数种不同的方式进行缓慢的反转。因此，我认为，与其试图辨认市场处于哪个阶段或威科夫循环中的哪个事件，不如专注于体积扩散分析。体积扩散分析是一种可以更轻松且可靠地应用于几乎所有价格变动中的方法。
With that said, the notion of how the well-informed traders interact with the uninformed traders and how supply and demand absorption works is indeed useful and can be applied to all markets and all timeframes. This concludes the Wyke of Trading course. I hope you were able to learn something useful with this video. If you enjoyed it, please help support the channel by clicking the like button, subscribing to the channel, activating the notifications button, sharing the video, and leaving your feedback below in the comments section.
说到这里，关于消息灵通的交易者如何与信息不对称的交易者进行互动，以及供需吸收的运作方式，确实是有用的，并且可以应用于所有市场和所有时间框架。本次韦科夫交易课程到此结束。希望您能从这段视频中学到一些有用的知识。如果您喜欢这段视频，请通过点击点赞按钮、订阅频道、激活通知按钮、分享视频，并在评论区留下您的反馈来支持我们的频道。
If you wish to learn how to trade, check out my website, fractoflowpro.com, or send me an email at support at fractoflowpro.com. I offer a series of different courses and ebooks for beginners and advanced traders. Thank you very much for watching and take care. Thank you.
如果你想学习如何进行交易，请访问我的网站 fractoflowpro.com，或发送邮件至 support@fractoflowpro.com。我提供各种适合初学者和高级交易者的课程和电子书。非常感谢你的观看，保重。谢谢。