One giant gigacasting, one solid piece of cast aluminum. The quality of the gigacasting is the best I've ever seen. So you can see here, like any other die cast, like a Hot Wheels toy, there's a little flaking here from the mold itself. But boy, they've come a long way with castings. And just the quality of that casting and the gigapresses that they're now using to create these. And so we'll do another piece on some of the gigapresses and how they function, but molten alloy under high pressure. So there's no voids in here, no air pockets, no fracturing or cracks. So really impressive quality with this gigacasting. And in comparison, we've got a pole star sitting right next store. And I just pulled a piece of cast aluminum on that pole star. And boy, just look at the difference in quality from this piece, this cast piece, pretty ugly, versus the quality of this. So quite amazing what's happening with gigacasting and the technology. They're incredibly lightweight, incredibly strong. As we said in some of the earlier gigacasting videos, people think if the car's hit, you'll need to replace the entire assembly. Not true. There's sections in here where we can also just replace the front sections of this. So what's happening right now with the structure of vehicles is just mind blowing how quickly it's advancing and how Tesla specifically is able to deliver this kind of quality out of a gigacasting. And clearly, the competition has a long way to go to catch up. And you can see it here in this piece of cast right now. So amazing gigacasting in this vehicle.
Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patrons, Martin P and Mel H. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Evolve the specialists with some very high praise for the gigacast on the Cybertruck in particular. And great to get that message out there that these gigacasts do indeed have some modularity built into them so when it comes to repair. If just part of the cast is actually damaged, no, you don't have to throw the whole thing out. You can oftentimes just take out a certain piece and replace it with a new part. We've been saying that on the channel for over a year now using anecdotes from subscribers, but it's good to hear some other industry players say the same thing. There's still plenty of chatter about Tesla and a potential investment into XAI. And just one thing to keep in mind for the people that may be wishing all of XAI's IP was under the Tesla umbrella. We can't forget about the CAPX that XAI has planned for the next 12 months. This year, the 100,000 H100 cluster may cost between three to $5 billion. And then Elon said next year, they're looking at 300,000 B200s and that project could cost between 10 and $15 billion. So on the high end of those ranges, that could be $20 billion in CAPX that XAI has planned in just the next 12 months.
Right now, Tesla has just north of $30 billion in cash. So if these XAI projects were under the Tesla umbrella, they'd be spending about 67% of Tesla's free cash on those projects. And don't forget, those costs would be before any operational costs, any electricity costs, any costs for the engineers to actually get these clusters up and running. Just one more reason why personally, I'm okay with the separation of XAI and Tesla and would of course, as I've said, be in favor of Tesla investing in XAI.
Today, Morgan Stanley made Tesla stock, their new top pick for US autos. Some reasons, the cost cutting and restructuring has stemmed the downside risk to the EV business, highlighting Tesla's layoffs and their investments in other parts of the business like energy and AI. They highlighted Tesla cornering the market on ZEV credits, regulatory credits, saying Tesla earned around $2,000 per unit in quarter two, more than two times the recent run rate. With nearly every legacy OEM continuing to pull back on full EVs, they said, we estimate Tesla may account for as much as one half of the credit sales in the market, supporting that 100% margin business for Tesla that may not be expected by the investment community at this time.
They said from our discussions, investors are starting to consider the potential for Tesla to be an expression on the AI theme. But indicators of climate change are bringing even greater attention to Tesla's dominant position in energy storage. It's still crazy to me that they need these indicators to figure this out, even without climate change, megapacks would be a major deal for the grid and the energy market overall. They said, we see potential for the Tesla energy business to be worth more than the autos business. They did highlight some risks and one not to forget about is that even if Elon wins his 2018 Comp Plan case in Delaware, that would only take him to about a 20% ownership in Tesla. So after that, there would still be that 5% gap in voting control that Elon would like to get to. So how Tesla's going to solve that still remains to be seen.
A lot of folks out there are attributing the Tesla stock move today to this decision by Morgan Stanley, but personally, I don't think being the top pick for the US auto sector is really that appealing. The way I see it, it's a pretty low bar. A different bullish commentary that's going a bit more under the radar though, some analysts and investors are taking notice in comparing Tesla's energy division to another fast growing unit, Amazon Web Services. A chief investment officer said, yeah, I would compare it to AWS, adding the success of Tesla energy in a tour of the Lathrop facility, drove them to add to its Tesla holdings. Again though, I don't really see this as a great comparison for any reason other than they're both growing quickly.
In the used EV market, one new trend is the growing number of pre-2023 Model Wies priced under $25,000, which means those vehicles could qualify for the $4,000 federal tax credit. Just a heads up in case you have friends and family looking, they may be able to get a 2022 Model Y for around $20,000 if they qualify for the credit. Zurich, Australia has signed an agreement with Tesla to become the preferred EV insurance provider for their customers in Australia. The partnership will allow Tesla owners to access the Insure My Tesla Insurance offering directly through the Tesla app, the product which uses Zurich's edge technology is available to all Model 3 and Model Y customers. Insure My Tesla includes coverage for all vehicle repairs including glass, charging equipment and batteries, using Tesla's accredited repair network. Zurich has been Tesla's preferred insurance provider in Switzerland since 2016 and is now extending this collaboration to the Australian market. With Insure My Tesla, Tesla ownership becomes even more secure giving more Australians the confidence to switch to EVs.
在二手电动汽车市场上,一个新的趋势是,越来越多2023年之前的Model Y汽车售价低于$25,000,这意味着这些车辆可能符合$4,000的联邦税收抵免。如果你的亲朋好友正在寻找二手车,他们在符合抵免条件的情况下,可能以大约$20,000的价格买到2022年的Model Y。
此外,苏黎世保险(Zurich)与特斯拉在澳大利亚达成了一项协议,成为特斯拉客户的首选电动汽车保险提供商。通过这一合作,特斯拉车主可以直接通过特斯拉的应用程序访问“Insure My Tesla保险”服务,这一产品利用苏黎世的先进技术,适用于所有Model 3和Model Y车主。Insure My Tesla包括所有车辆维修的保险,涵盖玻璃、充电设备和电池,使用特斯拉认证的维修网络。自2016年以来,苏黎世一直是特斯拉在瑞士的首选保险提供商,现在将这一合作扩展到澳大利亚市场。通过Insure My Tesla,特斯拉车主的安全性更有保障,为更多澳大利亚人提供了信心去转换使用电动汽车。
If we could only have an update on Tesla insurance in the United States. Elon and Rohan Patel commented on an article by the Wall Street Journal that really just highlighted the fracture between Elon and the Democratic Party. Much of it we know, but when Biden took office, Tesla officials did reach out to the White House multiple times to try to connect Elon and Biden, but those officials repeatedly got the cold shoulder. We all know about the EV event that Elon was not invited to. We know all about Mary and her leading. And we've talked all about the FTC, the Justice Department and the FCC, all not really playing fairly with Elon's companies. Rohan said this is a rare article about Tesla and Elon where I can't find any factual errors and it has good context.
And Elon said Biden is utterly controlled by the UAW, he would rather Tesla be dead than not unionized. As I've said before, I think it would be tough to find an administration that's more adversarial toward Elon and Tesla than the Biden administration was. But again, whole Mars said Tesla will thrive no matter who the president is to which Elon said true. There's a newer Tesla patent application floating around out there. This one for a new transport protocol for ethernet communications that do not rely on software controlled mechanisms. I'll have the patent linked below if that's your area of expertise, but SETI Park put together a great write up on the patent.
If you see TTP, just think Tesla Transport Protocol. The TLDR on this one is quite simple. There's plenty of talk and attention on the actual hardware, whether it's Dojo, AI4, AI5, Nvidia H100s, B200s, but not nearly as many people are talking about or are well read on how these hardware chips actually communicate with each other. When it comes to things like latency, bandwidth, inference, and the efficiency of all those mechanisms, this is a big part of the story. Tesla's TTP is a hardware only ethernet protocol that's designed for low latency communication.
SETI said traditional network protocols like TCP and IP rely heavily on software for operation. TTP takes a radically different approach by implementing these functions directly in hardware. This shift from software to hardware only implementation is the key innovation of TTP. He said this hardware only approach one, reduces latency, there's no software overhead and leads to faster communication. Two, increased reliability, hardware implementation reduces points of failure and three, scalability, easily adaptable to different AI hardware configurations.
SETI 说,传统的网络协议如 TCP 和 IP 在运行时严重依赖软件。TTP 采取了一种完全不同的方法,直接在硬件中实现这些功能。这种从软件到硬件实现的转变是 TTP 的关键创新。他说道,这种纯硬件的方法有以下几个优势:第一,减少延迟,因为没有软件开销,通信更快。第二,提高可靠性,硬件实现减少了故障点。第三,具有良好的可扩展性,能够轻松适应不同的 AI 硬件配置。
Imagine FSD making decisions based on sensor data processed across multiple AI chips all communicating in near real time. That's the power of TTP made possible by the hardware only design. TTP can be integrated into a complex AI computing environment. The setup allows for seamless communication between various AI components from individual GPUs to entire compute clusters. Possible impacts on Tesla's FSD, faster training, reduced communication latency should significantly speed up AI model training. It could be more responsive, quicker data transfer between sensors, processors and actuators means faster reaction times for self-driving and efficient use of AI hardware.
Better communication allows for more efficient distribution of AI workloads across different chips. Sharing that article Pierre Farrigu said, very interesting, I'd love to see how implementation goes, timelines, et cetera, but my high level take is that an awful lot of Nvidia superiority today comes from their ability to interconnect GPUs at a very high bandwidth and very low latency and TTP if successful changes the game bringing chip interconnect down to the physical layer. It could be very disruptive and very challenging to follow for others to be carefully monitored.
Whether this TTP protocol is specifically designed for Dojo or has broader applications, whether they're using it now already or whether they have plans to in the future, these are all still outstanding questions. At the very least, it'll be a new thread to pay attention to and read up on. The Tesla account said FSD12.5 can find its way out of parking lots as well as unmarked roads to which Elon said and it will improve significantly from here. Earlier this afternoon, Elon said FSD12.5.1 starts wide release today. Please connect your Tesla to Wi-Fi to receive the update. Farrzaud asked, includes hardware three to which Elon said it takes considerable software effort to optimize the code enough to run on hardware three.
It also needs to be validated separately. Estimated rollout is about 10 days. So this is still just for hardware four vehicles but there's light at the end of the tunnel for hardware three owners. Dan Birkeland asked any possibility of there being a Model S Plaid Plus or will the Roadster fill that void to which Elon said Roadster.
这还需要单独验证。预计推出时间大约是10天左右。所以这仍然只适用于硬件4的车辆,但硬件3车主也有希望了。Dan Birkeland问有没有可能会有Model S Plaid Plus,还是说会由Roadster来填补这个空缺,Elon回答说是Roadster。
Now it's probably fair to say this really won't be a wide release until another 10 days if that timeline is met for this to make it to hardware three cars. But hopefully this one is worth waiting for and just to add to that sentiment, don't forget what Ashok said, reverse is coming soon when the actually smart summon and the FSD models merged together over the next few releases. As Elon just said, actually smart summon is separate code but it will be bundled with 12.5.x next month so sometime in August. Which means yes, we may see FSD with the ability to reverse as soon as next month.
It wasn't just Morgan Stanley sounding bullish on Tesla but Piper Sandler and Alex Potter are as well. Piper analysts are now suggesting that Tesla may have finally cracked the code for FSD. The title of their note, Tesla may have solved the self-driving puzzle, don't roll your eyes by Tesla. We think investors should consider the possibility Tesla's decision to host a Robotaxi event is not applied to distract from following EV sales. They analysts believe the focus on FSD at this event could underscore its importance to Tesla's future. Gee, thanks for that, fellas.
They touched on the more affordable upcoming Tesla but the analysts asserted that the primary significance of such a vehicle would be as a platform for disseminating FSD software more widely. Which is astute but then they said their DCF model suggests that without FSD revenue, Tesla's fair value would plummet to $77 per share. Then controversially they said they project FSD take rates will surge sharply around 2030, ultimately achieving near total adoption across Tesla's fleet. But they foresee FSD subscription prices increasing from $99 per month now to over $500 per month. Now for the Tesla owners that plan to put their cars on the Tesla Robotaxi network to earn money, maybe they can justify $500 a month. But for the average person that does not plan to do that, they just wanna pay for FSD to use for themselves. That does seem a bit steep no matter how frequently you drive. Piper Sandler has a $300 Tesla stock price target and Morgan Stanley is at 310.
For some reason over the weekend, people were just picking up on one of the more important lines from the Tesla Q2 call. That being the fact that Tesla's next gen vehicles which are going to be built on existing lines will enable more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines. And as we talked about on the Q2 recap video doing the math that works out to just north of 2.7 million vehicles.
A Cybertruck user said his experience with the Cybertruck was the best bumper towing experience I've ever had. The camera accurately aligns the ball with the hitch. The visual angle is perfect. Once the trailer mount is lined up, the truck remains stationary without rolling forward even a millimeter. The torque generated by the electric motor is remarkable. Sharing that West's one of the lead Cybertruck engineers said this is the same feedback I hear from our test drivers who have CDLs and decades of towing and hauling experience. Cybertruck is a pleasure to bumper tow with. He said we've also heard a lot of feedback from owners and have a whole list of towing specific items that we will improve OTA. West said the charging team is adding pool through spots to the locations where the layout can fit.
And replying to Mark asking for larger mirrors, West said the mirrors are designed to be easily removed and replaced. I think we'll see tow mirror third party options soon. And West confirmed something that we've been speculating about for a long time. He said the semi truck has 900 kilowatt hours of battery pack. He also said any range extender offered by Tesla for the Cybertruck will be structurally mounted so it's safe in a crash. Which means no, the range extender is not going to be easily removed.
Elon just gave nearly an hour long interview to Tesla owners of Silicon Valley as part of appearing at the X or Tesla takeover. Elon confirmed AI five volume production should be in 2026. He said to build and run an NVIDIA training cluster is a lot of work and requires a lot of skilled engineers. It's a nightmare electrically. It's very difficult. There are dramatic changes in power draw, energy fluctuations. So there are quite a few pieces to solving that puzzle. He mentioned how AI is trying to compress reality, specifically talking about FSD. They're looking to get it down to a few gigabytes, but it'll probably be 20 gigabytes soon. He said the inference computer on Tesla vehicles is much weaker than a GPU in a server center. It only has about 15 to 20% as much power. That means you need more effort on the training side to make up for the weak inference computer. He said we can electrify all road transport and all ships without breakthroughs and batteries, but he thinks we need improvement and energy density for air travel, ideally between 450 and 500 watt hours per kilogram. There are some expensive cells in that range right now, but most of the R&D currently is going toward reducing the cost per kilowatt hour.
The actuators and optimists will be moving into the forearm with the new optimist version later this year, which will emulate how the human hand works. The current version of optimist has actuators in the hand itself, and he reiterated that Tesla designs all of the actuators for optimists from scratch, and it'll have the same brain as the car. The production design version one of optimists for Tesla factories is just to make sure that it's useful, but he did say it will require a lot of babysitting for the first year from the engineering team. They're hoping that optimists will be responding to voice commands by 2026 when they're looking to sell it to other companies. And Elon said you should be able to customize how optimists looks long-term. He mentioned third parties should do some cool things. He actually said he's already talked to Pharrell, who was interested in having his own version of optimists. Elon said FSD should make it to the Cybertruck in August. He said at some point in the next two to four-ish weeks. He's not sure on the exact timing, but he said 12.5 is where a lot of things come together, one stack for the city in the highway, and he said you'll be able to wear sunglasses and still go hands-free, no nag.
Peter Thiel keeps asking Elon while we don't have flying cars to which Elon has said, wait for it, it's coming. Elon thinks the roadster demo will be next year. It's a joint Tesla and SpaceX effort. He said it should be the most mind-blowing product demo ever. Elon reiterated that he loves Tesla retail investors. He said there will be ups and downs, but he feels confident the value of Tesla long-term will be extremely high. He said Tesla isn't a phase like Nvidia right now before Nvidia went bananas. I'll have the full interview linked below.
Tesla Chan shared that Tesla China is now offering an ambient light retrofit for the Model Y, it costs around $180. However, this will only be for certain Model Y's built between specific dates. Why did you guys choose this? What was your lineup before? Well, we have Ford Explorers, Chevy Tahoe, Dodge Durango's, and because of all the products that we have in cars, we have to keep them idling constantly. So we're burning fuel. Our budget for our little town is really high. We're a little over $100,000 in fuel just for our small town. Wow. Exactly. And then it's hard on the engine. It's idling, it's creating heat. All the rubber products, suspension components, underneath the hood, all that just gets cooked. Wow. Yeah.
So we're looking to save fuel, efficiency, no oil changes, transmission changes. Reject the brakes. Save on the brakes. Dan Priestley, who leads the Tesla Semi program, shared this image of a render of what the new Tesla Semi Factory will look like when complete. You'll notice the absence of solar panels on this one. Maybe in this case, the solar panels could actually be spelling out Semi, but it doesn't look like it'll be anything like Gigatexus. Elon shared a post from drag times that said, new record 8.56 at 162 miles per hour by the Tesla plaid. But as you can see from the video, this is not quite a factory vehicle. It's pretty stripped down. Someone captured a Cybertruck accident where it drove head into a pole, but I just wanted to share the inside of the vehicle and the dash area that was seemingly unchanged other than for the airbags deploying, highlighting the safety and the benefits of that huge crumple zone for all Teslas, but specifically the Cybertruck.
The South Pasadena Police Department has said, these are the most capable vehicles available at any price. They just so happened to save taxpayer money as well. They were of course talking about the Model Y. Tesla China posted a new video on Weibo saying, RoboTaxi is coming soon and Optimus will be released in 2026. At a global auto conference, Ford CFO just said, the way we're developing the vehicle is very different than the traditional way OEMs have developed vehicles in a linear progressive process. A process we've basically been incrementally improving over the last 120 years or so. This in regard to their Skunk Works team working on their lower cost EVs. This will sound familiar, he said, it's agile. The engineers don't rely on suppliers for design. They'll work with suppliers. We go down into the supply base a couple of tiers.
If you haven't been following along, that's exactly what Tesla has been doing for years. They basically develop new products in tandem with their suppliers all the way down the supply chain. Back to Ford, he said, we will own the entire electrical architecture, we'll own the software on the modules, the systems integration between the vehicle and the digital architecture and then the experiences that come from that, the pace of development and then the cost structure. We're developing those vehicles to be competitive with a return at between 25 and $30,000. There was an article today from Bloomberg of one truest analyst who once again tested Tesla's FSD and he did not have a great experience but it was 12.3.6. Tesla stock closed the day at $232.10 up 5.6% while the NASDAQ was up 0.07%. It was a normal volume day for Tesla trading about 11 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days. Hope you guys have a wonderful day.