Markets Weekly July 13, 2024

Hello my friends, today is July 13th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week another exciting week of markets, we had the S&P 500 make new all-time pies. However, on Thursday though we did get some volatility. The Nasdaq was down 2% S&P 500 down 1%. We haven't seen that kind of volatility in some time. Is that the start of the long awaited correction or merely noise? I have no idea, but looking at price-caction on Friday, I'm actually becoming less cautious on the equity market. So let's see what happens in the coming weeks.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是7月13日，欢迎收看《每周市场动态》。过去的一周，市场又经历了激动人心的时刻，标普500指数创下了新高。然而，周四我们确实遇到了一些波动。纳斯达克指数下跌了2%，标普500指数下跌了1%。我们已经有一段时间没见到这样的波动了。这是我们等待已久的市场调整的开始，还是仅仅是一些杂音？我也不确定，但看了周五的价格走势，我对股市的谨慎态度有所减轻。所以，让我们看看接下来几周会发生什么吧。

Today I want to talk about three things. First, this past week was CPI week and we got some really good CPI data with CPI printing negative 0.1% month over month and that is changing the market landscape. Secondly, this past week it seems like the Ministry of Finance of Japan also intervened in a very well executed currency intervention to strengthen the yen. That seems to have also impacted equity markets. So let's talk a little bit about what the Bank of Japan did and how Japan is potentially rolling out new tools to strengthen the yen. And lastly, so many people have been thinking that the US Treasury is guosing their equity markets by adjusting how they issue debts.

今天我想谈三件事。首先，上周是CPI周，我们得到了非常好的CPI数据，CPI月环比下降了0.1%，这正在改变市场格局。其次，上周日本财务省似乎进行了非常成功的货币干预，以加强日元的汇率。这似乎也对股票市场产生了影响。所以我们来谈谈日本央行的举措以及日本可能如何推出新工具来加强日元。最后，许多人认为美国财政部正在通过调整债务发行方式来支撑他们的股票市场。

This past week we had Assistant Secretary Joshua Frost, who is actually the person who calls the shots on debt issuance, come out with a lengthy speech detailing how the Treasury issues debt and pushing back against the notion that they are guosing the markets. Let's listen to what he has to say. Okay, starting with inflation data. So this past week, CPI week, the expectations were that CPI would be benign, but it was actually much softer than expected printing at 0.1 negative 0.1% month over month. So some slight degree of deflation. Looking under the hood, headline CPI was dragged lower by moderating energy prices, as we see oil has been trending lower, and core CPI was dragged lower by shelter disinflation. Now the way that the CPI measures shelter is basically on the basis of average rent.

上周，我们有机会听到了助理国务秘书乔书亚·弗罗斯特的讲话。他实际上是负责债务发行的关键人物，他发表了一篇长篇讲话，详细说明了财政部如何发行债务，并反驳了他们在操纵市场的说法。让我们来听听他怎么说。好吧，先从通胀数据开始。上周是居民消费价格指数（CPI）发布的一周，预期CPI会比较平稳，但实际上比预期要低很多，月环比为-0.1%，这是有些许通缩的迹象。从细节来看，总体CPI被能源价格的下降拉低了，因为石油价格一直在下跌，而核心CPI则受到了住房通缩的影响。CPI衡量住房成本的方式基本上是基于平均租金。

We've been seeing for some time over the past couple years that on the margins, new leases are being signed at very low increases in very low rental increases. So the expectation has always been that eventually this would drag average shelter inflation lower. So many people have been expecting for shelter to disinflate over the past several months, but that just hasn't appeared until seemingly today. So potentially this may be the beginning of the long awaited shelter disinflation, but we'll have to see those forecasts have been very wrong for some time. In any case, this was a very benign CPI print.

过去这两年里，我们一直观察到在市场边缘，新租约的租金涨幅一直非常低。因此，人们一直期望这最终会使住房通胀的平均水平下降。过去几个月里，很多人都在预期住房通胀会放缓，但这一现象似乎直到今天才出现。所以，这可能是期待已久的住房通胀减缓的开始，但我们还需要进一步观察，因为这些预测已经多次出错。无论如何，这次的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据非常温和。

This past week, we also got PPI inflation, which is basically inflation for prices paid by businesses. Now, PPI usually not that important, and it printed a bit higher than expected. Market though did not seem to care too much. However, as we all know, what the Fed cares about when it comes to monetary policy is not CPI, it's not PPI, it's PCE, which is a measure of consumer prices. Now we don't get PCE until later in the month, but when we have all the data we have today, we can make a pretty good estimate as to what PCE will be. The Cleveland Fed has PCE now casting a webpage, and when you look at it, taking into account the CPI, the PPI, and other data, it's actually forecasting PCE month over month to be negative 0.1%.

上周，我们还得到了PPI通胀数据，PPI基本上是企业支付价格的通胀。通常，PPI不太重要，这次的数据比预期略高。但市场似乎并不太在意。然而，正如我们所知，美联储在制定货币政策时关心的并不是CPI，也不是PPI，而是PCE，这是一种衡量消费者价格的指标。本月晚些时候才会公布PCE数据，但根据我们今天已有的数据，我们可以对PCE作出一个相当好的估计。克利夫兰联储有一个PCE预测网页，综合考虑CPI、PPI和其他数据，它实际上预测月度PCE将为负0.1%。

Again, that is a very positive print when it comes to the Fed's efforts to get inflation back towards 2%. The market has been ticking into account all this inflation data, and it's changing the landscape. So heading into CPI, the market was thinking that we would get two cuts this year. Now the market is thinking maybe we'll get two and a half cuts, so basically the market is pricing in a more dovish Fed. And that viewpoint is also impacting other markets as well, the dollar we can notably, and if you look at gold, basically surged. And honestly, it is looking really good. Yields of course came down notably this past week, but most interestingly though, was the reaction in the equity markets.

再次提到，这对于美联储将通胀恢复到2%的努力而言，是一个非常积极的迹象。市场已经开始考虑所有这些通胀数据，并且整体形势正在发生变化。所以在消费者物价指数（CPI）公布前，市场认为今年会有两次降息。现在市场认为可能会有两到三次降息，所以基本上市场预计美联储会采取更为宽松的政策。这种观点也在影响其他市场，美元显著疲软，如果你看黄金，价格基本上涨了很多。老实说，走势看起来非常好。上周债券收益率也明显下降，但最有意思的是股市的反应。

Now if you were to tell me how the equity market would behave, if we had a very soft inflation print, I would say obviously, the equity markets would go to the moon because it's pricing in Eastern monetary policy. On Thursday though, the surprise to me was that equity markets actually sewed off quite notably in the face of the soft CPI print. And my best guess is that has to do with the reaction in the market to the strengthening Japanese yen, which leads us to our second topic. So it seems like this past week, the Ministry of Finance intervened in the market for another intervention to support the Japanese yen.

如果你告诉我，如果通胀数据非常温和，股市会怎么表现，我会说，显然股市会大涨，因为这预示着宽松的货币政策。不过在周四，让我感到意外的是，尽管CPI数据温和，股市却明显下跌。我猜这与市场对日元走强的反应有关，这也引出了我们的第二个话题。看起来上周日本财政部再次干预市场以支撑日元。

Now if you look at the price chart for USDJPI, you notice that over the past couple years, the yen has been depreciating against the dollar quite notably. No surprise, interest rates in Japan around 0 in the US, around 5.5%. So you can have a lot of investors in Japan moving money out of the yen into dollars to capture that higher return. The Ministry of Finance in Japan doesn't really want the yen to depreciate uncontrollably. And so it has intervened periodically. A couple years ago, it intervened and strengthened against significantly sending USDJPI tumbling lower. Then earlier in the year, the Japanese authorities intervened again. This time though, their intervention was much less effective because not too long after the intervention, USDJPI was back pushing against 160 and more recently was around 161. Now the impact of these currency interventions has been increasingly less effective.

现在，如果你看一下美元兑日元（USDJPI）的价格走势图，你会注意到，过去几年里，日元对美元的汇率显著下跌。这并不令人意外，因为日本的利率大约为0，而美国的利率约为5.5%。因此，许多日本投资者将资金从日元转移到美元以获取更高的回报。日本财政部并不希望日元失控贬值，所以会定期干预市场。几年前，日本财政部干预并大幅增强日元，导致美元兑日元汇率大幅下跌。今年早些时候，日本当局再次进行干预。不过这次干预效果不佳，因为干预不久后，美元兑日元汇率又回升到160左右，最近甚至达到161。现在，这些货币干预措施的效果越来越差。

The market seems to be increasingly confident that USDJPI is just going to the moon. Now the Ministry of Finance has been telling us that it's not too much worried about the level of the Japanese yen, but more about disorderly depreciation. But it seems like they are actually becoming more worried about the level as well. Now looking into surveys in Japan, businesses in Japan are thinking that the weekend, you know, that's not as good as we thought maybe it's getting a bit too weak. There are also opinion polls that suggest that the public is becoming unhappy with the depreciating yen and that's impacting the approval ratings of the current government. So it seems like there's more of a public policy impetus to try to check the depreciation of the yen. So the moment that the CPI print hit Thursday, of course everyone expects USDJPI with weaker inflation data, but it seems like just at that moment the Ministry of Finance left into action and taking advantage of market moves, again, weakening USD, just poured gasoline on the fire and exacerbated that move by interviewing, meaning to the tune of an estimated, say, $20 billion, not a very big intervention, but because they were pushing right at the time when the market was, USDJPI was on a downward trend in light of inflation data, got a lot of bang for their buck.

市场似乎越来越相信美元兑日元（USDJPI）将在大幅上涨。尽管日本财政部一直告诉我们，他们对日元的汇率水平并不太担心，更关注无序的贬值。但是，似乎他们实际上也开始对汇率水平感到担忧。 根据日本的调查，日本企业认为日元贬值并不像他们之前想的那样好，可能变得有点太弱了。同时，民意调查显示公众对日元贬值越来越不满，这也影响了现任政府的支持率。因此，看来有更多的公共政策动机来尝试遏制日元贬值。 当星期四的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据公布时，大家预期因为通胀数据较弱，美元兑日元将走低。然而，财政部似乎在这一刻采取了行动，趁市场波动之机，加剧了美元的疲软。据估计，他们进行了约200亿美元的操作。虽然这不是一次非常大的干预，但由于他们选择在美元兑日元因通胀数据走低的时刻进行干预，效果显著，得到了非常高的投入产出比。

And that was, you know, honestly, really well timed, really well executed. I'm not sure it was at night in Japan at that time, were they on standby? Did they know in advance? I don't know, but it was very well executed and did push USDJPI down a few percent. Now that seems to have actually been negative for the equity markets because looking across the markets, buying USDJPI, so that is to say, buying dollars against the yen has been a very popular trade. In fact, a lot of sophisticated investors who want to buy USDJPI right now have been funding their dollar assets by borrowing in yen. So if you think about it from their perspective, if you were buying this in P500 using yen over the past year, you would have made a lot of money as the S&P 500 appreciated in price and you would have made a lot of money as the yen depreciated. So it was a double play. Now that trade seems to have been very popular and as the Ministry of Finance shook that tree a little bit, it seems to have prompted some deleveraging across the board. And so I think that's the reason for that odd price action in US equities.

这真是时机把握得非常好，执行得也非常准确。我不确定当时日本是否是晚上，他们是否处于待命状态，他们是否提前知道？这些我都不清楚，但操作执行得确实很好，推动美元兑日元下跌了几个百分点。这对股市似乎产生了负面影响，因为在市场上，购买美元兑日元（即用日元换美元）是一笔非常流行的交易。事实上，许多想要买美元兑日元的高级投资者一直在通过借入日元来为美元资产提供资金。 从他们的角度来看，过去一年里如果用日元购买标普500指数，你会因为标普500指数价格上涨而赚钱，也会因为日元贬值而赚钱。所以这是一种双重收益的交易。现在这种交易似乎非常普遍，而日本财政部的操作似乎引发了全面的去杠杆化行为。因此，我认为这就是美国股市出现奇怪价格波动的原因。

So the question for me right now is just, is the deleveraging done or do we still have some fragility we need to shake off? Friday things seem to rebound a bit. It seems like there was not that much damage done to those people who had lever trades. And for all I know, and looking at what happened in recent months, they just go right back to work, shorting the yen and buying stocks. Now we all know that Japan can't intervene indefinitely to support the yen because the fundamentals are just so dire for the yen. The interest rate differential is just too wide. Now the way that the Bank of Japan is thinking about handling that is that it's forecasted to continue to raise rates, even as the Fed is cutting rates and the Bank of Japan may do a bit of quantitative tightening as well. So going into the coming months, that favorable interest rate differential towards the dollar may shrink. Now just in case that's not enough, it seems like the Japanese authorities are also thinking about adjusting their pension fund allocations to try to strengthen the yen. Let me explain.

所以现在对我来说的问题是，去杠杆化的过程是否已经完成，还是我们仍然有一些脆弱性需要摆脱？周五的情况似乎有所回升。看起来那些有杠杆交易的人并没有受到太大的损失。而根据我对最近几个月发生的情况的了解，这些人可能会马上重新开始，做空日元并买入股票。 现在我们都知道，日本不可能无限期地干预以支撑日元，因为日元的基本面实在是太糟糕了。利率差距实在太大了。日本央行的应对策略仍可能是在美联储降息的同时继续加息，并且日本央行可能也会进行一些量化紧缩。因此，在未来几个月，利率差距对美元的有利情况可能会缩小。 若仅仅依靠这些措施还不够，日本当局似乎还在考虑调整养老金基金的配置，以试图增强日元。让我来解释一下。

So over the past few times as the Japanese authorities have intervened to strengthen the yen, what they've been doing is that they've been taking their farm reserves. So basically their trillion dollar farm reserve fund and selling dollars buying yen to strengthen the currency. They can't do that indefinitely though. What they're thinking of doing is that using the giant government pension fund, which has 1.5 trillion dollars in assets and about 40% invested abroad and trying to take that money and move it back to Japan.

在过去的几次中，日本当局为了加强日元，进行了一些干预。具体做法是他们利用国家的外汇储备基金，也就是他们那个价值一万亿美元的储备基金，卖出美元，买入日元，以增强日元的币值。但是，他们不能无限期地这样做。现在他们考虑的办**法是，使用巨大的政府养老金基金。这个基金拥有1.5万亿美元的资产，其中约40%投资在国外。他们计划将这部分钱移回来日本。

So over the past few years as interest rates in Japan have been very low, the government pension fund has been investing a lot in foreign assets. And Treasury's French Oats, UK guilds have been much higher yielding than Japanese government bonds. And so it makes sense for the government pension fund to be investing abroad. But now that GGB yields have been going up and maybe because the yen has been so weak, the government seems to want the pension fund to move some of its money from abroad back home. And that would involve significant amounts of the yen purchasing.

过去几年里，由于日本的利率非常低，政府养老金基金一直在大量投资于外国资产。法国国债和英国公债的收益率远高于日本政府债券。因此，政府养老金基金投资国外是有道理的。但由于最近日本政府债券的收益率上升，而且日元疲软，政府似乎希望养老金基金将部分资金从海外转移回国内。这将涉及大规模的日元购买。

So the government pension fund sells some, say, Treasuries or U of Stocks, take those dollars, sell them and buy yen. And that is over $100 billion in purchases of yen depending on how quickly they want to do that process. So that portfolio rebalancing process would be a tailwind to come strengthen again without having the government further exhaust their foreign reserves. So the government has a lot of tools over there to try to strengthen the yen. And if they don't want the yen to weaken any further, they have ways to do that. So personally, I would not be negative on the yen right now. The authorities have told you they don't like what's happening.

因此，政府养老基金会出售一些，比如说，美国国债或股票，然后用这些美元换成日元。而这个过程可能涉及超过1000亿美元的日元购买量，具体取决于他们想要多快完成这个过程。所以，这种投资组合的调整过程将有助于日元的回升，而不会使政府进一步耗尽外汇储备。政府手里有很多工具可以用来尝试加强日元汇率。如果他们不希望日元继续贬值，他们有办法做到这一点。因此，我个人目前不会对日元持负面看法。有权威人士已经表示他们不喜欢当前的情况。

And the last thing that I want to talk about is how the Treasury goes about issuing debt. So many people have been thinking that the US Treasury is gooseing the stock market by issuing more bills than coupons. Let's take a listen. As you know, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee recommends that T-bills comprise between 15 and 20 percent of total US debt. Right now, the Treasury is issuing T-bills significantly above that recommended range. Some people, including myself, believe that this is being done to artificially stimulate markets in the run up to the election.

最后，我想谈谈财政部如何发行债务。很多人认为美国财政部通过发行更多短期国债（T-bills）而不是长期国债（coupons）来推高股市。我们来听听看。正如你所知，财政部借款咨询委员会建议短期国债比例应在总债务的15%到20%之间。目前，财政部发行的短期国债明显超过了这个建议范围。一些人（包括我自己）认为这是为了在选举前人为地刺激市场。

So that is a sitting US Senator basically saying that, you know, the US Treasury gooseing the stock market to help Biden. Now the person who actually decides how debt is issued is Assistant Secretary Josh Frost. Now many people say it's Yellen. Of course, Yellen is the big boss. But let me tell you, I'm pretty sure that Yellen is not so much into these details and is not well versed in the plumbing. But Josh is. Josh was actually my former boss at the New York Fed and he had a speech this past week detailing the Treasury's debt issuance process and pushing back against the notion that they are gooseing the market.

那么，这是一位现任美国参议员在说，你知道，美国财政部通过推动股市来帮助拜登。现在，真正决定如何发行债务的人是助理部长乔什·弗罗斯特。很多人说是耶伦。当然，耶伦是大老板。但让我告诉你，我很确定耶伦不太精通这些细节，也不熟悉具体操作。但是乔什很懂。乔什曾经是我在纽约联邦储备银行的上司，他在过去一周发表了一次演讲，详细说明了财政部的债务发行过程，并反驳了他们操纵市场的说法。

First, he describes just how the Treasury figures out how much debt to issue. Then he goes about how they go about deciding the composition. So the US Treasury first looks at, again, so three things determine how much debt to the Treasury has to issue. First, of course, obviously the deficit when the government spends more than it takes in taxes, it has to be fine. It's not spending with debt. Secondly, when there's old debt that's maturing in practice, it doesn't get paid down. It just gets rolled over.

首先，他描述了财政部是如何确定要发行多少债务的。然后，他谈到了他们如何决定债务的组成。因此，美国财政部首先会看三个因素，这些因素决定了财政部需要发行多少债务。第一，当然显而易见是赤字，当政府花的钱超过它通过税收获得的收入时，就需要通过发行债务来弥补。第二，当旧债务到期时，实际上并不会偿还，而是会被转存。

So looking to how much debt the Treasury has to issue in the next quarter, you have to take into account the deficit. But also how much debt is maturing because that maturing debt has to be rolled over. And lastly, the US Treasury also wants to see if there's any changes in how much cash balances it wants to hold. So the Treasury General account right now, say, $800 billion, if it wanted to increase that, it would have to issue more debt to finance that.

所以在考虑财政部下个季度需要发行多少债务时，你必须考虑预算赤字。但还需要考虑有多少债务即将到期，因为这些到期的债务需要再融资。此外，美国财政部还想看看是否需要调整其现金余额。例如，目前财政部的一般账户有8000亿美元，如果想要增加这个金额，就必须发行更多的债务来筹集资金。

So changes in the TGA also increase overall debt issuance. Now, after you determine how much debt you want to issue, you have to say, how are you going to go about financing that? How many bills, how many coupons, what tenors, and so forth. The way the Treasury goes about doing this, of course, first they use bills as a shock absorber. Bills are issued regularly on a weekly basis, but in the event that you have these unforeseen circumstances like COVID or in the event you have fluctuations in tax receipts, say during April when the Treasury suddenly has a big influx in cash receipts, you would adjust bill issuance to accommodate that.

因此，TGA（财政一般账户）的变化也会增加整体债务发行量。现在，当你确定你想要发行多少债务后，你需要考虑将如何融资。这包括要发行多少短期国库券、多少长期债券、以及如何分配各种期限的证券等。财政部处理这个问题的方法是，首先使用短期国库券作为缓冲。短期国库券是每周定期发行的，但在遇到意外情况时，比如COVID-19疫情，或者在税收收入波动时，比如每年四月财政部突然收到大量现金收入，你可以调整短期国库券的发行量以适应这些情况。

That's your shock absorber. When it comes to coupon issuance, though, the Treasury aims to be regular and predictable. What that means is that so every month they'll tell you that we're going to issue, so they're going to issue have monthly issuances of all the key benchmark tenors, and they will telegraph in advance just what the sizes are. The Treasury does not issue opportunistically. In the past they did, but they realized it wasn't very effective. In the past maybe they would see, man, interest rates are low in the tenured sector. I'm just going to go and issue a bunch of tenured notes, but they don't do that anymore. They realize that basically they're not that good at predicting what interest rates would be in the future. You could be issuing a bunch of debt when you think interest rates are lower, but it actually goes further lower.

那是你的减震器。但是在债券发行方面，财政部力求做到规律和可预见。这意味着每个月他们都会告诉你即将发行，所以他们会每月发行所有主要基准期限的债券，并且会提前告知发行量大小。财政部不再择机发行债券。过去他们会这样做，但发现效果不佳。以前他们可能会看到，哦，长期利率很低，就会发行一大堆长期债券，但现在不再这样做了。他们意识到自己并不擅长预测未来的利率情况。你可能认为利率低的时候发行了大量债务，但实际上利率可能会进一步降低。

Also when you issue opportunistically, it actually makes things more difficult down the line. In the past when the Treasury did issue opportunistically, let's say they thought that longer data interest rates are low, and so they issued a whole bunch of tens or thirties, then eventually one day they're going to have to refinance those tens and thirties, and that makes things quite lumpy, and it made it difficult to refinance this big lumpy chunk of debt. They realized that wasn't a good way of doing this. Over time, what they've come to see is that being regular and predictable is actually the best way for Treasury to minimize their cost of issuance over time, because it increases the liquidity premium of Treasuries. One thing people will note is that on the run, Treasury debt has a lower yield than off the run.

此外，当你机会主义性地发行债务时，实际上会使未来的事情变得更加困难。过去，当财政部机会主义性地发行债务时，比如他们认为长期利率较低，于是大量发行十年或三十年的债券，那么有一天他们最终将不得不为这些十年或三十年的债券再融资，这就导致资金流动不均匀，再融资这些大额不均匀的债务变得非常困难。他们意识到这种方式并不好。随着时间的推移，他们发现规律性和可预测性才是财政部随着时间推移最小化发行成本的最佳方式，因为这增加了国债的流动性溢价。有一点人们会注意到的是，流通中的国债收益率比未流通的要低。

That's the liquidity premium, and having this regular and predictable schedule increases the liquidity premium and makes it actually cheaper for them to issue debt as it ensures to the market that they will be liquidity in their products, again, no lumpiness, and also allows investors to prepare for upcoming issuance so that they can digest it better. In the event, though, that Treasury has to adjust their coupon issuance because of changes in deficits and stuff like that, the way that they would go about doing this to finance higher deficits will first and foremost, they would just adjust coupon sizes higher, which is what they've been doing. So let's say that normally they were issuing $50 billion in two-year notes a month, they could adjust that to $60 billion a month. Secondly, if that wasn't enough, what they could do is they could actually sell debt more frequently.

这就是流动性溢价。这种规律且可预见的发行时间表增加了流动性溢价，使他们发行债务的成本实际上更低，因为这向市场保证了他们产品的流动性，没有大笔突发的需求，同时也使投资者能够提前为即将发行的债务做准备，更好地消化这些债务。然而，如果国债因赤字等变化需要调整票面发行，他们会首先通过提高票面规模来应对高赤字需求，这也是他们一直在做的事情。例如，通常他们每月发行500亿美元的两年期国债，他们可以将其调整为每月600亿美元。其次，如果这还不够，他们可以更频繁地出售债务。

So in the past, they've increased their frequency of tip sales to raise more money. The third thing they could do is that they could increase more tenors for existing products. For example, recently they rolled out a six-week bill. Again, new product, you're able to raise more money. And lastly, if they still wanted to raise more money, they could come up with a new products to appeal to a wider investor base. More recently, of course, floating rate notes and several years ago, inflation protected securities. So that's how the Treasury goes about doing this. Now Josh makes it a point, goes out of his way to say, we are definitely not trying to goose the markets by issuing more bills.

所以，过去他们通过增加小费销售频率来筹集更多资金。第三件事是他们可以增加现有产品的期限。例如，最近他们推出了一种六周期的票据。这又是一个新产品，可以筹集更多资金。最后，如果他们仍然想筹集更多资金，他们可以推出新产品，以吸引更广泛的投资者群体。最近的例子包括浮动利率票据和几年前的通胀保护证券。这就是财政部如何进行这些操作的方式。现在，乔什特意强调，我们绝对不是通过发行更多票据来推动市场。

So he notes that Treasury does have this self-imposed guideline of having bill share be between 50 to 20% of outstanding debt. But he thinks that this is something that is relatively recent. If you look further back through time, the bill share has actually been much higher. And of course, we're telling everyone that this is temporary. Eventually, we're going to go back to that 15 to 20% line. The decreases in coupon sizes in the recent past, again fewer coupons, more bills, is just a modest tweak, not a big deal. So that is his explanation as to why the Treasury bill share has been increasing. And he could be totally true, totally correct.

所以，他指出，财政部确实有一个自我设定的指导方针，即短期国库券的比例应占未偿还债务的50%到20%之间。但他认为这实际上是最近才开始的。如果回顾更早的时候，短期国库券的比例实际上要高得多。而且我们当然会告诉大家，这只是暂时的。最终，我们会回到15%到20%的比例线。近期减少票面利率债券的发行，再加上增加短期国库券的发行，只是一个小的调整，不是大问题。所以，这就是他对短期国库券比例上升的解释。而他可能完全正确。

But again, you have to be aware of the fact that he is a Biden appointee, totally on team Biden. And so it is in his interest and interest of his boss to have easier financial conditions, which many people do perceive of higher bill share as doing. In any case, I don't know one knows the truth unless you can read their minds. And it's fair to have both sides of the story.

但是，你需要意识到他是拜登任命的，完全站在拜登这一边。因此，对他和他的上司来说，拥有更宽松的财政状况是有利的，而许多人认为提高账单份额就是在这么做。不管怎样，除非你能读懂他们的心思，否则没人能知道真相。听听两方面的说法是公平的。

Okay. So that's all I've prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in hearing my thoughts, make sure to check out my blog, petguy.com. And of course, don't forget to like and subscribe. All right. Talk to you guys next week.

好的。今天我就准备到这里。非常感谢大家的收听。如果你对我的想法感兴趣，一定要去看看我的博客，petguy.com。当然，别忘了点赞和订阅。好的，我们下周再聊。