Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. First up today, I have to call out a few things because I've been seeing this argument more and more. Plenty of people out there are now arguing that Waymo is the benchmark or the standard when it comes to things like Roblottaxes and Autonomy. But here's a simple explanation of why I think comparing Tesla to Waymo is a fool's errand. I really view it as them playing two separate games, aka they're trying to solve two different problems. We have Tesla on one hand trying to solve for generalized autonomy, meaning the Tesla system is built so you can place a vehicle anywhere on the planet and it'll know how to drive.
欢迎来到 Electrified,我是你的主持人 Dylan Loomis。首先,我需要指出一些事情,因为我看到这个争论越来越多。现在有很多人认为 Waymo 是机器人出租车和自动驾驶的基准或标准。但我要简单解释一下为什么我认为将 Tesla 和 Waymo 相比较是徒劳的。我真的认为它们是在玩两个不同的游戏,也就是说,它们试图解决两个不同的问题。Tesla 在一方面试图解决的是通用自动驾驶问题,这意味着 Tesla 的系统是为了让车辆可以在地球上的任何地方行驶并知道如何驾驶。
Even if it's never been to that location before, I've seen some people arguing, well Tesla just has a bigger geofence than Waymo, but that's not true. The only reason Tesla's FSD isn't operating outside of North America is thanks to regulations, but the technology and the software itself has no geofence whatsoever. Waymo on the other hand is solving for geofence, Roblottaxes, and the scale alone makes it a very different ballgame. Tesla could easily pick a few thousand miles on a map in the US and geofence it and do all of the HD mapping, but they're just not playing that game. And that doesn't even mention the Tesla vision approach compared to Waymo's, which uses LiDAR and sensors. And we know that from a Cog's perspective, the Waymo solution is multiples more expensive than Teslas.
My point in all of this is any intervention or safety data from Waymo is mostly irrelevant when trying to compare it to what Tesla is doing, one because they're trying to solve a different problem and two, they're doing it in a much different way. Generalized autonomy is very different than geofence, Roblottaxes. So this is adjusted for non-highway driving or surface or city streets, which is actually more accident prone on a per mile basis on average. But we already see that Tesla's data suggests that using FSD is roughly five times safer than not using it or than driving your Tesla yourself. It's also safer than the national average. And we see that Waymo is also operating at a rate that is safer than the national average for accidents. Notably, Cruz's accident rate is actually below the national average. And we saw them getting in an accident roughly once every 43 miles. When it comes to generalized autonomy, the problem Tesla is pursuing, why would they ever be benchmarked against the company that they're significantly ahead of?
We think that higher price points, so equivalent to what human driven ride hail prices at today in the two to four dollar range will be possible in the early days of service. We see a lot of opportunity in the one dollar to 60 cents range. If you look at how consumers value their time, there's another large swath of demand available at rates equivalent to what we see being charged in China at roughly 50 cents per mile. And then lastly, at 25 cents per mile, this really opens up the market to consumers that are not in the ride hail market today. So that's where the magic happens. And we believe that early adopters or companies that are early to scale Robotaxy platforms should benefit the most because these are the companies that will be able to capitalize on higher initial price points for autonomous ride hail.
They should have more attractive earnings profiles. As you can see in the graph here, we think that in the first roughly half of urban miles traveled that are addressed by autonomous driving, this is where the lion's share of the earnings economics will be. The IIHS put out a new report saying partially automated driving systems don't have a significant impact on vehicle safety. But if you want to talk about a shoddy methodology, they say right here, the study vehicles were model year 2017 to 2019 Nissan rogues and model year 2013 to 2017 BMW and mini models.
So they're taking obscure outdated vehicles and then making a general conclusion that partially automated driving systems don't improve vehicle safety. The distinction, unlike partially automated systems, crash avoidance technologies come into play only during emergency and are unobtrusive under normal conditions. Partially automated systems must be manually turned on and can create a false sense of security for the driver. They did however find that the former technology actual crash avoidance features did have a tangible impact on safety. That's things like automatic emergency braking and forward collision warnings. Their conclusion, for whatever it's worth to you, everything we're seeing tells us that partial automation is a convenience feature like power windows or heated seats rather than a safety technology. Maybe that's true for outdated rogues and BMWs but don't paint it as that's the case for all vehicles because as Tasha just said, the data is pretty clear.
Tesla's with partially automated driving are far safer than the industry average. From Cox automotive in June, the cyber truck was the best selling vehicle priced over $100,000 with the average transaction price of $113,000 with more than 3,200 units sold. There's certainly a lot of pent up demand for the cyber truck but as we heard they may only sell the foundation series through the end of this year now and that's subject to change but it'll be interesting to see how long Tesla can keep this up. This title does have a nice ring to it. The cyber truck is America's best selling vehicle over $100,000. Before the cyber truck entered into production we were saying how it would most likely be a huge hit in the pop culture space. Rappers, athletes and so far in the early days of production that has happened maybe even more than I was expecting.
On Instagram, meekmill just put out a preview of a new song that he's calling cyber truck. Now our community here may not care that much about what rappers and celebrities and athletes are doing with their purchase decisions but I can guarantee you that a large portion of the population does. Looking at the rest of the Tesla data from Cox for quarter one this year, Tesla sales year over year were down 13.3% and for quarter two they were down 6.3%. Which means year to date, Tesla sales are down 9.6%. It makes sense as we've been watching EU sales are down, China sales are down, US sales are down. But personally I still think there's a chance Tesla can meet the sales that it did for 2023. Its deliveries last year were 1.8 million and so far this year they've delivered 830,700.
So if Tesla just doubled what it did in the first half of the year they would end the year at 1.66 million but as we know quarters three and four are usually stronger than one and two. Now will quarters three and four be 140,000 units stronger? I don't know but it's at least in the range of outcomes. And we've had ballpark figures for this but the official data has cyber truck sales of 2,803 in quarter one and 8,755 in quarter two for a total of 11,558 in the first half of the year. Which again means Model S and X sales for quarter two were right around 10,000 which is below the 15 to 20,000 number that we would like to see. Bloomberg today reported that Tesla is postponing the Robotaxi unveiling to October to allow teams working on the project more time to build additional prototypes.
And so far Elon has not denied this report. The word is this has been communicated internally and the design team was told this week to rework certain elements of the car. Fun fact both Uber and Lyft stocks were up over 4% today on a day when the NASDAQ was down nearly 2%. We also have to clear this up because I'm seeing a lot of people out there saying see I told you that FSD wasn't going to be ready by August. Well okay no one ever said it was. Here's what Elon said on the Q1 call because apparently a lot of people have forgotten. In terms of our new product roadmap we've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of what they previously mentioned. At first Tesla said they were going to start production in the second half of 2025 for one of these next generation vehicles. I would add we were never told which one because again they are supposedly multiple.
Then Elon said now they're expecting it to be more like early 2025 if not late this year. These new vehicles plural including more affordable models will use aspects of the next gen platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to produce on the same manufacturing lines as our current lineup. So one the plan was never to actually launch the robot taxi network on 8 8. It's literally just to unveil the prototype of the vehicle. Two it's now sounding more likely that we're actually going to see multiple vehicles unveiled which may be part of why this event is being delayed if indeed this report turns out to be true. Again three port said to build additional prototypes.
So look what I'm about to say is strictly hypothetical to make a point but there's a chance that Tesla could have a more affordable vehicle that it starts producing later this year or early next and then the robot taxi wouldn't enter production until late 2025 if not even later 26 or 2027. My point here is Elon has never put a specific timeline on the robot taxi or cyber cab production specifically. Now sure maybe Tesla starts production of all of these new models at the same time but I'm just trying to say it's not guaranteed based on what Elon actually said and I'd remind you even if he did things are always subject to change. We'll see if this report turns out to be true but even if it is honestly I think it may be more fitting this way because as we like to say Tesla is busy making the impossible merely late and because people like to ask if I had to guess I would be expecting a cyber cab a more affordable vehicle and a van.
On the delay Adam Jonas put out a new note saying that robotics is bigger than cars even autonomous ones and they said in the next 12 months they're expecting some developments to transform the auto business away from solely providing transportation into all new areas of AI adjacency. They talked about Starlink Mini and the roaming plan and they said do investors doubt that there may be a natural opportunity to integrate such services into Tesla vehicles. Not only that but they're still expecting grok to make it into Teslas.
关于延迟问题,Adam Jonas 发布了一份新的报告,他表示机器人技术比汽车甚至是自动驾驶汽车更重要。他们认为,在接下来的12个月里,一些发展将会把汽车业务从仅仅提供交通工具转变到涉及所有新型人工智能领域。他们还讨论了Starlink Mini和漫游计划,并提到投资者是否怀疑将这些服务整合到特斯拉汽车中的自然机会。不仅如此,他们仍然预计grok技术会应用到特斯拉汽车中。
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Heinrich Zane gave us an update the foundation work for the new Tesla semi factory has finally begun. I like this picture because you can use this little white truck right here to get a sense of the scale of this factory and when it comes to the semi being available over in Europe we know that Tesla is going to be an exhibitor at a transport show upcoming and there have been rumblings that we've talked about in the past that there may be some new regulations that would allow the Tesla semi into the European market as is without modifications. I'm not saying this will be confirmed at the September event but I would be surprised if nobody asked the question.
Heinrich Zane 告诉我们,新特斯拉半挂卡车工厂的地基工程终于开始了。我喜欢这张照片,因为你可以通过这个小小的白色卡车来感受一下这座工厂的规模。说到特斯拉半挂卡车在欧洲的销售,我们知道特斯拉即将参展一个运输展览会。之前我们讨论过,有传言说可能会有一些新规允许特斯拉半挂卡车无需改动即可进入欧洲市场。我并不是说这个消息会在九月的展会上被确认,但如果没有人提出这个问题,我会感到惊讶。
Elon shared a video of Farzad and his parents testing out 12.4.3 and Elon said good demo it's true buying anything except the Tesla will seem like buying a horse and buggy but I'm sharing because this was not a perfect drive so if Elon was trying to gate keep the performance of FSD or not bring attention to bad performance this would not be a good move on his part. When do you think Tesla offers the first paid rebel taxi ride? Tesla energy posted the power wall fleet in California delivered more than 100 megawatts of power to the grid during a VPP event and sadly I went to check on the growth of this VPP network in California but last bulb the source that was tracking this previously apparently has stopped as of July last year. I haven't found any other source like this so if you guys come across anything send it my way.
Just a note, Sawyer reported that Tesla secured a new 256 million megapack contract in Australia. However clicking through to the link that he shared nowhere in the article doesn't mention Tesla or anything about a megapack plus at the end of the article it says note this story has been updated to correct the battery supplier for the project so Tesla may have accidentally been included but right now it's not and the other two articles out there talking about the project one from today and one from a few weeks ago again neither of them mention Tesla or the megapack. To share some diversity for 12.4.3 reactions we have Timothy Cassus saying overall the majority of issues with 12.3.6 have not improved. He gave a list of some things that were better some things that were worse and some things that are still the same at least for him he said overall I would say pretty disappointing progress looking forward to 12.5.
We have the Biden administration giving a total of more than $1 billion to the UAW I mean 2 GM and Stellantis to support increased EV production overall the government will contribute $1.7 billion to projects at 11 plants in 8 states these grants will support production of EVs hybrids plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles but we also have the Volvo group getting money for medium and heavy duty trucks all of the companies selected for funding will negotiate grant terms with the administration no surprise that the UAW vice president said the grant is a no-brainer ahead of the election to UAW plants has buying votes all over it however putting all of that aside and I'm not saying I'm condoning this but as a silver lining hopefully this should lead to more EV and EV parts production on the news Jeff Lutz said this is unbelievable why would the Department of Energy and POTUS give money away to Chinese own Glee a Volvo parent and Hyundai for ED production and zero to the American leader in EVs Tesla to that Elon said it does seem weird the truth is Tesla doesn't really need the money and this Hyundai Mobus is only getting $32 million to produce plug-in hybrid components and battery packs but the Volvo group which definitely has ties to China even though it's true the Volvo group is separate from Volvo cars will be getting hundreds of millions of dollars honestly though I really don't think this should come as a surprise we learned in 2009 the US government is not going to let GM and the others fail and this time they're just doing it ahead of the curve hopefully though none of that money does ultimately go to fuel cell production because on that front as of April this year 16 of California's 54 stations in operation were closed and not only that but the stations that are open have had the prices jacked up in just the past few weeks filling up a Mariah cost to California driver around $200 the equivalent of paying $14.60 for a gallon of gas we've been talking about more alpha to be realized in Tesla stock lately and in a new note from Morgan Stanley here you go based on their bare bull lunch most of Wall Street has low or no exposure to Tesla because they think the stock is being driven by momentum and or factors that can't be measured with any acceptable accuracy the struggling car business can be tracked but the AI robotics FSD and much of the energy business is seen as too small to matter or does not produce the same quantum of weekly and monthly information to be tracked this makes it difficult for some institutions to justify owning the stock in size what have we always said if Wall Street can't model it or fit something into their pretty little spreadsheets then they effectively throw it out the window and with this one Adam Jonas is confirming exactly that and then he said during the hour and a half lunch the auto business barely came up at all they talked about energy storage humanoids AI FSD China and the 88 robot taxi day and other topics the topic of cars was almost completely absent from the discussion so they know intellectually what's coming but because they can't track it they're basically just not investing which translates to more time for us to accumulate we haven't heard much on the sympathy strikes for Tesla in Sweden until today now we have a new company basically that's responsible for inspecting now joining in on the sympathy strikes in particular this company is responsible for the inspection of vehicle lifts and other things.
Tesla has made a few changes to the website and the vehicle lineup quicksilver is now available on all model y variants in the US whereas before it was only the two highest trims the white interior option for the model 3 is now down to 1000 dollars from 2k before and it's still included for the performance model and Tesla has introduced a new model 3 variant the long range rear wheel drive for 42,490 dollars 5,000 cheaper than the long range all-wheel drive and 3500 more than the base rear wheel drive it has 363 miles of range 91 more than the standard model 3 and yes it qualifies for the full tax credit which takes it down to 34,990, 5,000 dollars cheaper than the long range rear wheel drive of course for those that qualify this may cannibalize some higher trim sales but it should also bring a new segment into the market for the car as not everyone wants or needs all-wheel drive and this trim is always heavily requested in the forums
Tesla stock closed the day at 241.3 cents down 8.44% while the Nasdaq was down 1.95% it was another huge volume day for Tesla training about 124 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days don't forget check out ground news linked below if you're interested i think they're a great company to support hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on x linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.