Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Ummis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Raymond H. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. As with all battery developments, we need to be cautious, but we do have Silla, Nanotech and Group 14, both saying they're almost ready to begin high volume commercial shipments of their silicon electrodes this year. For Americans, these would be companies to root for as Silla is based in California and Group 14 is based in Washington. Group 14 is planning to ship silicon anodes to three undisclosed EV and EV battery customers by the end of this year. The claims, these silicon dominant anodes would boost driving range around 50% and recharging to 80% of capacity in less than 15 minutes. Thus far, Mercedes is the only automaker that's publicly said they plan to use these Silla electrodes in an upcoming G-Class SUV by the middle of the decade. Silicon in the anode can theoretically hold 10 times more lithium by weight than graphite and could allow very fast charging because lithium ions move much faster in and out of silicon than they do graphite. Right now, some Model SNX batteries from Panasonic do have some silicon oxide in the anode, but it's only around 5% and these new anodes from Silla and Group 14 would have a majority of silicon. They're saying the ideal amount of graphite to replace is 80-85%.
欢迎来到 Electrified,我是你的主持人,Dylan Ummis。首先,感谢我最新的赞助人,Raymond H。感谢你支持我们的频道。和所有电池新技术一样,我们需要保持谨慎,但我们有 Silla、Nanotech 和 Group 14 都表示,他们几乎已经准备好在今年开始大规模商业出货他们的硅电极。对于美国人来说,这些都是值得支持的公司,因为 Silla 位于加州,而 Group 14 位于华盛顿州。Group 14 计划在今年年底前向三家未透露的电动汽车和电动汽车电池客户出货硅负极。
据称,这些以硅为主的负极可将行驶里程提高约50%,并在不到15分钟内充电至80%的容量。迄今为止,奔驰是唯一公开表示计划在本世纪中期推出的G级SUV中使用这些Silla电极的汽车制造商。硅在负极中可理论上比石墨重量上多储存10倍的锂,并且由于锂离子在硅中的移动速度比在石墨中快得多,允许非常快速的充电。目前,部分由松下生产的 Model S 和 Model X 电池在负极中确实含有一些氧化硅,但比例只有约5%,而 Silla 和 Group 14 的新负极中硅的比例将占大多数。他们表示,理想的石墨替代比例是80-85%。
But one of the trade-offs these silicon anodes will be more expensive, especially to start. The co-founder of Silla said they expect to match or beat the price of graphite anodes for a full battery pack after Silla reaches large scale production in around 4 years. And I would add getting to that point with all of the commercialization and all of the testing that's going to be needed to prove this new technology is not a guarantee. But if Silla or Group 14 can actually figure this out and commercialize it, that would give an American battery company the chance at least for a time to perhaps jump some of the Chinese battery suppliers that have dominated the space for a long time, at least when it comes to some performance and density metrics. Commercializing this technology would not be totally unprecedented as the Lightning LS 218 and Electric Motorcycle is already using in anodes dominated by silicon. Over the past year, the price for LFP battery cells in China has dropped 51% to an average of $53 per kilowatt hour. The average global price of those batteries last year was $95 per kilowatt hour. Part of that is thanks to the cathode share of the total cost for an LFP cell in China has fallen from 50% at the beginning of last year to less than 30% this year. We've heard time and time again this year that battery over capacity is now a problem coming out of China and we're learning capacity utilization of battery plants in China fell from 51% in 2022 to 43% last year and will be lower again this year.
但是,这些硅阳极的一个权衡是它们会更贵,尤其是在初期。Silla公司的联合创始人表示,他们预计在Silla大规模生产后,大约四年内可以达到或超过整个电池组使用石墨阳极的价格。我想补充的是,达到这一目标需要进行全面的商业化和测试,这并不能完全保证。但如果Silla或Group 14能够实现这一目标并成功商业化,这将使一家美国电池公司至少有机会在某些性能和密度指标上赶超长期主导市场的中国电池供应商。商业化这一技术并非完全没有先例,因为Lightning LS 218和电动摩托车已经在使用以硅为主的阳极。过去一年,中国LFP电池单元的价格下降了51%,平均达到每千瓦时53美元。而去年这些电池的全球平均价格是每千瓦时95美元。部分原因是,在中国,一个LFP单元的正极材料成本占总成本的比例从去年初的50%下降到今年的不到30%。我们屡次听到,今年来自中国的电池产能过剩已经成为一个问题,我们了解到中国电池厂的产能利用率从2022年的51%下降到去年的43%,今年将会更低。
And now at the pack level LFP pack prices are around $75 per kilowatt hour. At that price, EVs can be priced at or below combustion cars in most vehicle segments. It will take some time for those prices to be fully reflected outside of China but some of that is already happening. Friendly reminder, just last year Toyota was arguing that there were not enough batteries to go around and that sharing them between hybrids was a better way to reduce emissions. I'd like to read one paragraph from a recent article written by James Dama titled FSD as a service. This right here can serve as a cheat code for you anytime somebody says well if Tesla figures out FSD then everybody else is just gonna do the same thing. James said by contrast Tesla has durable advantages in the robo taxi space. It's the only entity with an existing fleet of millions of robo taxi capable vehicles already deployed. It's uniquely positioned to rapidly ramp up the manufacturing base for a new generation of low-cost self-driving vehicles. No other large volume manufacturer makes electric software-driven internet-connected vehicles with all-around cameras, redundant computer-controlled critical control and sensing systems, and powerful compute.
Nobody else has the data center infrastructure the domain expertise the custom hardware design and manufacturing capabilities, and the massive software development resources. Nobody else is vertically integrated and self-sufficient in their ability to bring together all the elements to make widespread robo taxi service a near-term reality. And there are no credible candidates for another company that might gain those in the near future. Tesla is unique. When in doubt read this paragraph. This article from Electric which is basically taken from a business insider report is just going to be a lightning rod of an article.
BI said based on conversations with current and former Tesla employees say Tesla has been optimizing FSD neural nets specifically for routes taken by Elon and Tesla influencers producing FSD content. A former Tesla employee said it seemed like we were purposely making Elon's car better to make autopilot look different than it was. It felt dishonest. BI also said the company created a system to prioritize data from drivers most likely to share their experience online.
These drivers are internally referred to as VIP users and their data is at times put in VIP queues. Some employees claimed that was due to those content creators pushing the system to its limits and therefore it makes sense to train the neural nets to handle those situations. On one hand you can argue well, it's just a wise marketing strategy from Tesla. You have the main FSD content creators getting millions of impressions you want them to show progress over time and given they are good at testing and pushing the limits it would make sense to focus on those.
But on the other hand you have the more cynical take that it's all just another deception from Elon and he's trying to make the software look better than it actually is. But with that argument it's not like Elon isn't allowing anybody with FSD to post their own experience. Finally several annotators who talked to BI confirmed they were tasked to specifically work on routes around Tesla, SpaceX and Twitter as well as a house previously owned by Elon. But honestly is it really that crazy or nefarious for Elon to actually see and experience some of the bleeding edge technology? I think it's pretty obvious it would be important for Elon to see what type of improvements and what rate of improvement is possible by focusing on his routes.
Then you can take some of those learnings about the current architecture and how they're approaching the problem and distribute it to the rest of the fleet. What do you guys think? Much should do about nothing or something more. Tesla did raise the price of all Model 3 trims by about 1600 US dollars but they told us this was going to happen and it's likely in response to the new tariffs from the EU. Model 3 sold in Germany are coming from Shanghai. Joey Klander shared some more pictures of a Tesla Model 3 seemingly doing some RoboTaxi camera placement testing. I wanted to show you the zoomed-in options so you can see how these camera angles are a bit different.
Here's the side view with the cameras a bit further back and here's the third picture of one of the side repeater cameras. The wholesale number for Tesla China in June came in at 71,007 which leaves 11,746 for export. That gives us a new wholesale number year over year for January through June of Tesla Shanghai down 11.7% and when it comes to exports over the same time period they're down 18.7%. Last June, the wholesale number was 93,600 and the export was 19,400.
But despite Tesla's slowdown in Shanghai the Model Y is still the best selling new energy vehicle in China for the first half of the year. The Model Y currently holds a 40,000 unit lead over the number 2 vehicle, the seagull from BYD. The Model Y was also the best selling imported car in South Korea in the first half of this year. Ensure you can say that's all to be expected given the Model Y was the best selling car in the world last year but let's not forget that was last year this is a new year. It would be awesome for Tesla to go back to back with the Model Y given its quote unquote outdated model lineup.
Some details from the courtroom and Elon's comp plan came out from yesterday. The word is Judge McCormick will make a single ruling later this year when it comes to both the attorney fees and the ratification consequences of the vote. Again showing you the type of person we're dealing with Greg Virallo the lead plaintiff's lawyer said that Elon's efforts to reinstate his pay plan has been a clown show. I say we all vote to take away Greg's compensation for the past six years and see how he responds. Tesla and its directors have collectively hired around 10 top law firms both from Delaware and New York to plead their case. Lawyers representing some Tesla shareholders including CalPERS and ARK Invest also registered appearances with the court. Greg Virallo also said to put it bluntly litigating against Tesla is never easy and he maintained that there was no basis in Delaware case law for a shareholder vote to retroactively upend a court ruling.
I'm no lawyer but when that court ruling was predominantly based on a shareholder vote and the specific faults with it well when those faults are taken away seems to me like there should now be a basis to upend a court ruling like that. Just to be clear because I've been getting some messages about this AJ on X was trying to argue that Tesla's reported energy deployment numbers is what Tesla recognizes in the profit and loss statement in that same quarter. I'll be honest his rationale here is a bit confusing but for whatever it's worth he said you can work out the implied average megawatt hour revenue which is remarkably stable. First and foremost on Tesla's 10Q it literally has energy generation in storage sales and deferred revenue and that deferred revenue is recognized as revenue radically over the respective customer contract term.
For quarter one 2023 the total transaction price allocated to performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied for contracts with an original expected length of more than one year was $209 million and of that amount they expect to recognize a set amount over the next 12 months and the remaining over a period up to 25 years so if all of Tesla energy's deployment numbers were immediately recognized in the P&L in that same quarter why would they have deferred revenue and second to debunk his average megawatt hour revenue claim quarter four of 2022 Tesla energy deployed to 2,462 megawatt hours then in quarter one 2023 that number jumped to 3,889 megawatt hours doing the math that's a 58% deployment bump quarter over quarter and scrolling down a bit to Tesla's energy generation in storage revenue for quarter four 2022 it was $1.3 billion fast forward to quarter one and it was $1.5 billion doing the math that's only an 8% revenue jump when deployments over the exact same time were up 58% and that quarterly discrepancy was actually pointed out to me by Bradford Ferguson over at rebellion air and I also checked with Matt Smith who's also at rebellion air and both confirmed my take which was that Tesla energy does not immediately recognize all of the revenue and profits from the energy deployments and this is not sponsored or anything like that but if you're into investing in individual stocks and dabbling with options and risk management it may be worth sending a message to the rebellion air team and getting in touch with Bradford or Matt so again just be careful who you listen to online
The Paris Olympics are being used by Toyota to promote hydrogen cars buses and other vehicles as a solution to climate change but we have a letter signed by more than 120 academics scientists and engineers from around the world saying that hydrogen powered vehicles require three times more electricity than battery electric cars for equivalent duty the letter is arguing that Toyota promoting hydrogen vehicles at the Olympics is going to mislead billions of people by exposing them to false information it's now internationally accepted in industry and academia that electrification of vehicles is the most effective intervention to decarbonizing the transport sector. I think it's funny that about 30 days ago Toyota put out a press release arguing that this hydrogen fuel cell technology has proved its quality over a decade of commercial production they said Toyota has continued to refine the tech since 1992 and in 2015 the Mariah became the world's first mass produced hydrogen fuel cell sedan so Toyota's big argument here is Mariah sales it turns out the most Mariah's Toyota has ever sold in a year dating back nearly a decade was 2,700 and that was last year replying to this Elon said hydrogen is silly for cars and only barely sensible for rockets where payload is around a thousand times more valuable.
Steve Jurbitsen added Toyota has been mistaken about hydrogen for 10 years after our dinner with Elon in 2014 Toyota CEO returned to Japan to abruptly cancel their EVs in favor of hydrogen fuel cells residents in the UK are getting the message from Tesla that they're now offering 0% interest rates in the UK specifically for the Model 3 and the Model Y the house weighs and means committee voted in favor of a bill that would undo the federal EV tax credits arguing the rules would result in US taxpayer dollars flowing to Chinese companies I think that's rather ironic when the entire point of these EV tax credits is to wean us off of the Chinese supply chain but these Republicans are arguing the Biden admin is sacrificing our economic independence in order to force more Americans to drive an electric vehicle let's community note that one because incentives don't force anybody to do anything the house already passed two similar bills earlier this year but neither of them have been taken up by the senate
Steve Jurbitsen 提到,自从2014年我们和Elon共进晚餐后,丰田错误地认为氢能源已经有10年的历史。当时丰田的CEO回到日本,突然取消了他们的电动车计划,转而支持氢燃料电池。与此同时,英国的居民已经收到了来自特斯拉的信息,他们现在在英国针对Model 3和Model Y提供0%利率的贷款。
美国众议院筹款委员会投票支持一项法案,该法案将取消联邦电动车税收抵免。支持者认为这些规则会导致美国纳税人的钱流向中国公司。讽刺的是,电动车税收抵免的初衷是让我们摆脱对中国供应链的依赖,但这些共和党人却认为拜登政府为了让更多美国人开电动车,正在牺牲我们的经济独立性。
需要注意的是,激励措施不会强迫任何人做任何事。今年早些时候,众议院已经通过了两项类似的法案,但参议院尚未审议这些法案。
Next era energy is in the final stages of a new massive battery storage project in Fresno County California this would be a three gigawatt system and if the average is a four-hour duration this could be a 12 gigawatt hour project when it's done this would be a standalone best across 260 acres we don't yet know who's going to supply the batteries because the developer is considering two different technology approaches using solely lithium ion or a mix of lithium ion and iron flow battery tech either way the first phase of construction is expected to commence this year and the entire facility is expected to be online no later than 2032 Ford has now lost out on roughly 600 million dollars in incentives for its EV battery plant in Marshall Ford has scaled back the scope of the project and now the state is scaling back the incentives the state is also rescinding a 100 million dollar grant because the output of F-150 lightnings is a fraction of previously anticipated volumes
接下来是一段翻译成中文的内容,易读的表达意思:
Next Era Energy公司在加州弗雷斯诺县正在最后阶段建设一个大规模的电池储能项目。这个项目的规模为三吉瓦,如果平均储能时间为四小时,那么这个项目完成后将拥有12吉瓦时的储能能力。这个独立的最佳储能系统将占地260英亩。目前我们还不知道由谁来提供电池,因为开发商正在考虑单独使用锂离子电池技术或将锂离子电池和铁流电池技术混合使用。不论采用哪种技术,预计今年将开始第一阶段的建设,整个设施预计最晚在2032年上线。
而福特公司在马歇尔的电动汽车电池工厂项目则损失了约6亿美元的激励资金。由于福特缩减了项目的规模,州政府也相应缩减了激励措施。除此之外,州政府还取消了一笔1亿美元的拨款,因为F-150 Lightning电动卡车的产量远低于之前预期。
BYD is investing one billion dollars in turkey to set up an EV and a plug-in hybrid vehicle factory with an annual capacity of 150,000 units it's slated to begin production before the end of 2026 and they're attempting to reach customers in Europe and this is in response again to those tariffs lucid is recalling around 5,000 vehicles thanks to intermittent hardware connection faults which can lead to vehicles losing propulsion without warning but lucid has already issued a software update for this issue the 2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ the fully electric version is going to start at 130,000 dollars production is set to begin in October of this year and it's to be made in Michigan GM Mexico is partnering with Tesla to build 1000 charging points in Mexico GM said the charging network in Mexico will be ready by August or September 2025
Tesla stock closed the day at 262 dollars and 33 cents up 3.71% while the NASDAQ was up 0.14% this is now 10 consecutive days in the green for Tesla stock the last time Tesla stock did something like this was summer of last year when it was green for 13 days in a row it was yet another big volume day for Tesla trading about 70 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters you