Tesla's IR Lead Said What? / The Problem With ARK & TSLA / Alarming EV Stat ⚡️

It's a lot of money, but when he took this pay package, nobody else I know in business would have accepted an all performance pay package for a company that CNBC was reporting was on the verge of bankruptcy. So pay the man is due. He works his butt off. He's the most innovative CEO we have in America. And I think it's not. I think it's a shame. I think it's a travesty where he's having this discussion. Welcome to Electrified. It's your host Dylan Ummis. Today is going to be a quick episode. It is my birthday today. Now personally, I'm not a big birthday guy, but I am a family man. So I'd like to spend some time with them. And there was actually a fair amount of meaningful news today. So figured it be worth running through it. McKinsey put out a new survey and the results more than four in 10 owners of EVs in the United States are likely to buy a combustion car for their next purchase.

这是一大笔钱，但当他接受这份薪酬包时，我认识的其他商界人士没人会愿意接受这样一份完全基于表现的薪酬包，尤其是对于一家CNBC报道濒临破产的公司。所以应该付他应得的报酬。他拼命工作，是美国最具创新精神的CEO。我认为这不是一个问题，反而是个耻辱，就连讨论这件事情也是一种荒谬。欢迎收听《电气化》。我是主持人Dylan Ummis。今天是一个简短的节目，因为今天是我的生日。虽然我个人并不太重视过生日，但我是一个家庭观念很强的人，所以我想花些时间陪家人。今天其实有一些有意义的新闻值得分享。麦肯锡发布了一项新调查显示，在美国，超过四成的电动车车主可能会在下次购车时选择一辆燃油车。

And this one was not a trivial study like some of the others that we'll see online. In this case, they asked around 200 questions to more than 30,000 consumers in 15 countries, which collectively comprise more than 80% of global sales volume. 29% of EV owners around the world said they're likely to reverse course and that number hit 46% in the United States. Globally, the top concern was the inadequacy of the public charging infrastructure. On that note, one of the more frustrating news stories that keeps popping up are these thieves who are now stealing the cables across different fast charging sites across the country. Main reason, the price of copper. Not only are non-supercharger locations already not that reliable, but to now have customers showing up where maybe a reliable site where the cables are now cut off is just not a great situation. Back to the McKinsey survey, 21% of global respondents do not want to ever switch to an EV. That number may seem daunting at first, but just keep in mind that this part of the transition, especially in a place like the United States, we really only need one third of the population to be considering an EV, as we're still only between 7% and 10% adoption.

这项研究并不像我们在线常见的一些研究那么简单。研究人员在15个国家向超过30,000名消费者提出了大约200个问题，这些国家的总销售量占全球的80%以上。全球范围内，29%的电动汽车（EV）车主表示他们可能会改变主意，放弃电动汽车，而在美国，这一比例达到了46%。全球消费者最关心的问题是公共充电基础设施的不完善。值得注意的是，一个令人沮丧的新闻是，现在有小偷在各个快速充电站偷窃充电电缆，主要原因是铜的价格高涨。本来一些非超级充电站点就已经不那么可靠了，现在还出现充电电缆被剪断的情况，确实让人头疼。 根据麦肯锡的调查，21%的全球受访者表示他们永远不想换成电动汽车。这个数字乍一看可能令人担忧，但需要记住的是，在像美国这样的国家，这一过渡阶段我们只需要三分之一的人口考虑使用电动汽车，因为目前的电动汽车普及率仅在7%到10%之间。

Finally, 38% of non-EV owners say they anticipate a hybrid or a full EV will be their next vehicle that's up from 37% in 2022. I'll be honest though, this 40% number is a lot higher than I would have guessed for this number. I would have said maybe 10 to 15% of people don't like the EV experience yet. Too soon, public infrastructure, all of that, but 40% is certainly up there. Again, no need to panic, the infrastructure will get better over time, and hopefully these companies like Iona can actually come through and improve the infrastructure, it's just going to take time. In the newsletter, we said these EU tariffs are coming in, now they're here, they can be up to 38% on EVs imported from China starting in July. The EU said this higher end, 38% will be on automakers who do not cooperate with the investigation that started last year, and it'll be 21% on Chinese EV makers which have not been sampled. In short, different automakers are going to be slapped with different levels of this tariff. BYDs will be 17.4% and Gilly, Gilly, however you prefer, and SAIC will see there's increased to 20% and 38% respectively.

最终，有38%的非电动车车主表示，他们预计下一辆车会选择混合动力车或全电动车，高于2022年的37%。不过，说实话，40%的比例比我预想的要高很多。我本以为可能只有10%到15%的人还不喜欢电动车体验。太早了，公共基础设施还未完善，所有这些因素，但40%确实不低。不过，不用惊慌，基础设施会随着时间的推移变得更好，希望像Iona这样的公司实实在在地改进基础设施，只是需要一些时间。在新闻简报中，我们提到了欧盟关税，现在实施了，从7月开始对从中国进口的电动车征收高达38%的关税。欧盟表示，这个38%的高端税率将适用于那些不配合去年开始的调查的汽车制造商，而对于未被抽样的中国电动车制造商，将征收21%的关税。简而言之，不同的汽车制造商将面对不同程度的关税。比亚迪将被征收17.4%的关税，而吉利（你可以叫它Gilly也可以）和上汽将分别面临20%和38%的关税。

The Swedish Prime Minister actually came out against these tariffs saying as far as tariffs are concerned, we are in agreement, it's a bad idea to dismantle global trade. So now we watch all of the workarounds come to fruition, but they are saying at tariff levels lower than around 50% exporting products to the EU would still be commercially appealing for many automakers. This burden is barely more than the EU's pre-existing 10% duty. What we'll see now is the larger automakers with money will actually set up manufacturing operations within the EU. And of course most places across the EU actually want that so they can set up local supply chains and have jobs for their people. And whether it's full-on manufacturing or something they call a halfway house, kind of like what Lucid is doing in Saudi Arabia where they ship parts there and then just do the final assembly at that location. Paul Starce CEO Thomas Ingenloth already said that they could export cars into the EU from their site in South Carolina in the US. And as it stands now, hybrids nor ice vehicles will actually fall under these new tariffs, they're for full BEVs only.

瑞典首相实际上反对这些关税，他表示，就关税而言，我们达成了一致：拆除全球贸易是个坏主意。因此，我们现在看到各种应对措施开始产生效果，但他们说，如果出口到欧盟的产品关税低于50%左右，许多汽车制造商仍然具有商业吸引力。这种负担仅比欧盟现有的10%关税高一些。我们现在将看到，大型汽车制造商有资金的将实际在欧盟内部设立制造工厂。当然，欧盟大部分地区实际上也希望这样做，这样他们可以建立本地供应链，并为他们的人民提供就业机会。不管是全面的制造还是一种称为“中途之家”的方案，都类似于Lucid在沙特阿拉伯所做的那样，他们将零部件运到那里，然后只在当地进行最终组装。Polestar首席执行官Thomas Ingenloth已经表示，他们可以从美国南卡罗来纳州的工厂向欧盟出口汽车。目前，混合动力和内燃机车辆实际上不会受到这些新关税的影响，这些关税仅适用于全电动汽车。

Bear in mind Tesla exported over 344,000 vehicles from Shanghai in 2023. All they're saying about how these new tariffs may impact Tesla right now is that at this stage Tesla may receive an individually calculated duty rate. Zooming out, these new tariffs are still only provisional duties that will come into effect July 4th if the EU does not reach a solution with Chinese authorities. And then four months after this, so-called definitive measures take place. Tesla's EU sales are already the weakest when it comes to their Shanghai in the United States, so not a great development, but we still have to see what the rate will be, and will this turn out to be a case of Gigabrelin? We're going to start relying on you a lot more. All I know for now, certainly something to watch.

请记住，特斯拉在2023年从上海出口了超过34.4万辆汽车。关于这些新关税可能对特斯拉的影响，目前他们所说的是特斯拉在这个阶段可能会获得一个单独计算的税率。退一步看，这些新关税目前只是临时税，将在7月4日生效，前提是欧盟在此之前没有与中国当局达成解决方案。再过四个月，所谓的最终措施将会实施。相对于美国和上海市场，特斯拉在欧盟的销售已经是最弱的，所以这个新发展不太妙，但我们仍需等待实际税率的公布，也许这会成为另一个“Gigabrelin”的案例。我们将更多地依赖你的支持。目前我所知道的就是这些，肯定是值得关注的。

The Tesla Megapack has been chosen for a new battery energy storage project in the UK, and it'll be paired with an offshore wind farm. It's a 600 megawatt-hour system that's expected to be operational by the end of 2026. When complete, the battery storage will be one of the largest in Europe. This portion of this project should require around 150 Tesla Megapacks at $2 million a pop, that's a $300 million order. Adam Jonas and Morgan Stanley put out a new note talking about why they think that Tesla will probably actually make a phone, to which Elon responded, we could, but hopefully it is not needed. Tesla is one of the few companies that has its own tech stack, not iOS, Android, or forked Android. At this point, I still think XAI would be the most likely candidate for an Elon company to make a phone.

特斯拉的Megapack电池系统被选中用于英国一个新的电池能源存储项目，并将与一个海上风电场配对使用。这是一个600兆瓦时的系统，预计将在2026年底前投入使用。项目完成后，这个电池储能系统将成为欧洲最大的系统之一。该项目的这一部分大约需要150个特斯拉Megapack，每个价格为200万美元，总计约3亿美元。 亚当·乔纳斯和摩根士丹利发布了一份新报告，讨论他们认为特斯拉可能会制造手机的原因。对此，埃隆·马斯克回应说，他们可以，但希望没有这个必要。特斯拉是少数拥有自己技术栈的公司之一，不是基于iOS、Android或改版的Android。目前，我仍然认为XAI会是马斯克公司中最有可能制造手机的候选者。

It could still integrate very well with Tesla. And look, I would certainly buy a Tesla phone, but for this one, I think you can at least make the argument this would feel like a distraction. Tesla has released a new air mattress for the Model Y, it's $225, but at the moment, it appears to be sold out. I'm sure many of you have seen ARK Invest's new Tesla stock price target for 2029, before we even touch on it. Tasha said, we conservatively assumed Tesla does not sell Optimus externally in our Model. And that Optimus manufacturing savings modestly impact Tesla's costs in single digit percentages over the next five years.

这仍然可以很好地与特斯拉整合。看，我肯定会买一部特斯拉手机，但对于这款产品，我认为你至少可以说这会让人觉得有些分心。特斯拉为Model Y推出了一款新的空气床垫，价格是225美元，但目前似乎已经售罄。相信很多人已经看过ARK投资公司对2029年的特斯拉股票价格目标，在我们开始讨论之前，Tasha说，我们在模型中保守地假设特斯拉不会对外销售Optimus。同时，Optimus在制造上的节省将会在未来五年内对特斯拉的成本产生个位数百分比的影响。

We've talked about some of the limitations of what ARK uses, it's called a Monte Carlo simulation, it really just helps to account for uncertainty by trying to determine the probability of different outcomes. And on the other hand, a traditional DCF or discounted cash flow model is what you'll see from Wall Street more often, but that doesn't really do well of accounting for uncertainty. So we're not going to dive deeper into that today, it's not that important, just know that ARK's expected value for Tesla by 2029 is $2,600 per share. That would be roughly a 14x from where Tesla is today. Their bear case is $2,000 a share and their bull case is $3,100 per share, which means their bear case is an 11x from today's levels, and their bull case would be a 17x.

我们已经讨论了一些ARK使用方法的局限性，这种方法叫做蒙特卡罗模拟，它主要通过试图确定不同结果的概率来处理不确定性。另一方面，传统的DCF（贴现现金流）模型是你在华尔街更常见到的，但它在处理不确定性方面表现不佳。所以我们今天不会深入探讨这个问题，不太重要，只需知道ARK预计特斯拉在2029年的目标股价是2600美元每股。这大约是特斯拉目前价格的14倍。他们的最坏情况预期是2000美元每股，而最乐观的情况预期是3100美元每股，这意味着最坏情况下是当前价格的11倍，而最乐观情况下是17倍。

But first, let's go back to ARK's 2020 Tesla stock price targets for 2024. In 2020, ARK was expecting Tesla to be valued at $7,000 in 2024. Remember though, Tesla has split its stock 15 times since then. $7,000 divided by 15 is about $466. I'd remind everybody that in 2021, three years before ARK's projection, Tesla stock did actually hit around $415. But here's the problem with a lot of these models. The conversation really should be what analysis did ARK get right, versus did they just get lucky with what happened with the market and the macro. Back to ARK's 2020 Tesla stock price for 2024, their bear case was $1,500 divided by 15, $100 per share, and their bull case divided by 15 would have been $1,000 per share for Tesla stock this year.

但首先，让我们回到ARK在2020年对2024年特斯拉股票价格的预测。2020年，ARK预期特斯拉在2024年的估值为7000美元。不过，请记住，特斯拉自那时以来已经拆分过15次股票。7000美元除以15大约是466美元。我要提醒大家，在2021年，也就是在ARK的预测前的三年，特斯拉的股价确实达到了大约415美元。 但这里有个问题，这些模型往往有缺陷。讨论的焦点应该是ARK的分析到底哪些是正确的，和市场及宏观经济的变化对其准确性的影响，而不仅仅是他们是否“运气好”。回到ARK在2020年对2024年特斯拉股票价格的预测，他们的悲观预期是1500美元，除以15得出每股100美元，而乐观预期除以15，则是每股1000美元。今年特斯拉的股价就在这个范围内浮动。

So at least where Tesla stock is today, we're a lot closer to their bear case. Now, here's where I would give ARK a lot of credit. For their 2020 predictions, they had this section of probabilities where they had no autonomy solved for Tesla. If you take their highest 2024 price target for that group, that was actually $3,400 divided by 15, which is about $226 per share. Thus, another way to think of this would have been Tesla's bull case in the event that they have not yet solved for autonomy. I've seen plenty of people online blasting ARK saying that they thought Tesla was going to solve autonomy by 2024, but if you look at their simulations from 2020, that's really not the case. Sure, they said it was possible, but they only assigned a 30% probability to that outcome.

所以，至少就特斯拉股票的现状而言，我们离其最悲观的估计更近了。现在，我要赞扬一下ARK投资。对于2020年的预测，他们列出了不同概率的情景，其中包括特斯拉没有实现自动驾驶的情况。如果你看他们对这个情景下的2024年最高股价预测，实际上是3,400美元除以15，约等于每股226美元。因此，另一种思考方式是，如果特斯拉仍未实现自动驾驶，这便是其乐观情景。我看过许多人在网上批评ARK，认为他们预计特斯拉会在2024年实现自动驾驶，但如果你看看他们2020年的模拟数据，事实并非如此。当然，他们说这是可能的，但他们只给了这一结果30%的概率。

So 70% of their expected outcomes were actually that Tesla would not solve autonomy by 2024. So there's me giving credit to ARK, but here you're going to see me point out where ARK got it wrong. They said for that 2020 projection, their bear case implied Tesla will sell 3.2 million cars in 2024. And as we all know, the way things are trending this year, I think Tesla would be very lucky to do anything over 2 million. They also had their bull case at the time, Tesla doing 7.1 million sales this year. Thus, when it comes to auto delivery analysis, they were pretty significantly far off. With all of that context out there, Kathy Wood did say in January 2020, Tesla was going over $6,000 per share. And her timeline for that was in the next five years. Adjusting for the stock split, this would be $400 per share. And as we highlighted earlier, Tesla actually exceeded that number back in 2021. Now looking at their latest price targets again for 2029, their bear outcome for cars sold is 5.8 million. And their bull case would be 14.4 million. Also of note, the percent of simulations indicating Tesla's first year with Robotaxi commercialization, 58% were 2025 and 38% were 2026. Translation, ARK is pretty confident Tesla will launch its Robotaxi service by 2026. Honestly though here we have more limitations with this type of model.

他们预计结果中有70%实际上是认为特斯拉在2024年之前无法解决自动驾驶问题。所以我在这点上给了ARK一些认同，但接下来我会指出ARK错在哪里。他们在2020年的预测中表示，他们悲观的情况下，特斯拉将在2024年售出320万辆汽车。而如我们今年的趋势所见，我认为特斯拉能卖过200万辆就已经是运气好了。他们当时的乐观情况是特斯拉今年能销售710万辆汽车。因此，在汽车交付分析方面，他们的预测是相当偏离实际的。有了这些背景信息，Kathy Wood在2020年1月确实说过特斯拉的股价会超过每股6000美元，她的时间表是在接下来的五年内。经过拆股调整后，这相当于每股400美元。正如我们之前提到的，特斯拉在2021年实际就超过了这个数字。现在再看他们最新的2029年目标，他们预测在悲观情况下特斯拉将售出580万辆汽车，而乐观情况下是1440万辆。值得注意的是，模拟中表明特斯拉首次商业化自动驾驶出租车的年份，58%是2025年，38%是2026年。换句话说，ARK相当有信心特斯拉将在2026年之前推出其自动驾驶出租车服务。不过坦率地说，这种模型也有不少局限性。

They're also not really including anything for the Tesla Semi, the Supercharging Network, FSD licensing, or AI as a service. In fairness, we know any licensing deal for Tesla's FSD is going to take at least 3-5 years for any legacy OEM to actually implement, so I understand that. AI as a service, Dojo is still a long shot, I understand that. About the Supercharger network, ARK said, we believe Tesla is likely to reorient its funding toward charging infrastructure optimized for Robotaxis. While essential for EVs, according to ARK's research, Superchargers are unlikely to generate significant revenue for Tesla. That's certainly up for debate and on the Tesla Semi, they said, we don't believe the Semi will contribute significantly to Tesla's value within our 5-year investment time horizon. And you can certainly argue relative to Robotaxis, the Semi won't move the needle much, but that doesn't mean it won't move the needle at all. About ARK's model, Elon did say, I'm curious to read this, the more I think about Robotaxis and humanoid robots, the more absurd the valuation becomes. He also quote posted Tasha saying, interesting, spreading their research. I wanted to highlight there are plenty of limitations with ARK's model and they got some things right and wrong the last time around, but zooming out and relative to the rest of Wall Street and where their price targets were over the last 5 years, ARK has really been in a league of its own. Again, not that they get everything right or they should be treated as gospel, but at least directionally speaking, when it comes to the stock price, they have really been the most right.

他们也没有真正包括特斯拉Semi、超级充电网络、FSD授权或AI服务的内容。公平地说，我们知道特斯拉的FSD授权协议需要至少3到5年才能让任何传统汽车制造商实施，所以我能理解。AI服务方面，Dojo还是一个很大的未知数，我也理解。关于超级充电网络，ARK说，我们认为特斯拉可能会重新调整资金去优化机器人出租车的充电基础设施。虽然超级充电站对电动车至关重要，但根据ARK的研究，它们不大可能为特斯拉带来显著收入。这点确实有争议。至于特斯拉Semi，他们说，我们认为在未来5年的投资时间里，Semi不会对特斯拉的价值有显著贡献。你可以争辩说，相对于机器人出租车，Semi的影响不大，但这并不意味着它完全没有影响。关于ARK的模型，埃隆表示，他有兴趣阅读这份报告，他越想机器人出租车和人形机器人，估值越显得荒诞。他还引用了Tasha的帖子，说这很有意思，传播了他们的研究。我想指出，ARK的模型有很多局限性，上次他们也有对的和错的地方，但总体来说，相比华尔街其他公司及其过去五年的目标价，ARK确实独树一帜。再次强调，尽管他们不可能每次都对，或者应该被当做绝对权威，但在股票价格的趋势上，他们确实是最正确的。

The truth is, nobody has any idea how a generalized autonomous solution will be rolled out in the United States, let alone globally, so it's going to be fun to watch, I'll have the full report linked below. Now to bring everybody back down to Earth after thinking about a 17X for Tesla stock over the next 5 years, JP Morgan just met with Tesla's new head of IR and they're not that impressed. And their takeaway? Investors expecting Tesla to build a business around Robotaxis in short order are likely to be disappointed. JP said, we expect Tesla to show a Robotaxi concept on August 8th and perhaps an accompanying app and to reveal more about its expected business model. But we do not expect material revenue generation likely for years to come. And look, many of you know ordinarily I would not pay any attention to JP Morgan, their Tesla stock targets have typically been way off their budding heads with Tesla in the whole 9. But in this case they're saying their expectation is based in part on their analyst recent meeting with Tesla's director of IR. They said the IR exec suggested Tesla will build Robotaxis off the next generation vehicle platform that will not launch until the company is much closer to fully utilizing its existing production capacity which may take several years. They also said Tesla has yet to stand up much of the infrastructure it would need for such a service nor has it secured regulatory approval to test driverless vehicles on public roads.

说实话，没人知道在美国乃至全球推广一个通用的自动驾驶解决方案会是什么样子，所以观看这一过程会很有趣，我会在下面链接完整报告。现在，让我们回到现实中来，在想着特斯拉股票未来5年增长17倍的时候，JP摩根刚刚与特斯拉的新任投资者关系主管会面，他们对特斯拉的表现并不是特别印象深刻。他们的结论是什么呢？那些期望特斯拉能在短时间内围绕自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxis）建立业务的投资者可能会失望。JP摩根表示，我们预计特斯拉将在8月8日展示一款自动驾驶出租车的概念车，或许还会有一个配套的应用程序，并透露更多关于其预期商业模式的信息。但我们认为，在未来几年内，可能不会有实质性的收入产生。你们中的许多人都知道，通常我不会特别关注JP摩根的意见，他们对特斯拉股票的目标通常差得很远，经常与特斯拉意见不合。然而在这种情况下，他们的预期部分是基于他们的分析师最近与特斯拉的投资者关系主管会面的结果。他们说，这位投资者关系主管建议，特斯拉将基于下一代汽车平台来打造自动驾驶出租车，而这一平台不会在公司充分利用现有生产能力之前推出，这可能需要好几年时间。他们还说，特斯拉尚未建立为这种服务所需的大部分基础设施，也没有获得在公共道路上测试无人驾驶车辆的监管批准。

Now on that latter point we've heard Tesla exec say they're not really worried about getting approval across the United States. It's also true that Tesla doesn't really have dedicated infrastructure like a hub in different cities for these Robotaxis to charge and be cleaned. But Tesla is scrappy, it does well with what it has and there's no reason it couldn't start something like that at its existing service centers or wherever and then ultimately branch out from there. But I think you would agree the line from Tesla's head of IR that the next gen vehicle platform won't launch until Tesla is much closer to fully utilizing its existing production capacity which may take several years was a bit of a surprise given that some are expecting them to launch this Robotaxi as soon as quarter one twenty twenty five. But we'll test the launch a more affordable traditional vehicle before the Robotaxi all questions hopefully we have answered in a few short weeks.

在后面这个问题上，我们听到特斯拉的高管说，他们并不太担心在美国获得批准。确实，特斯拉目前还没有在不同城市里为这些自动出租车设置专门的充电和清洁枢纽。不过，特斯拉有灵活应变的能力，他们总是能够充分利用现有资源，因此没有理由认为他们不能在现有的服务中心或其他地方启动这样的项目，并最终从那里扩展出去。不过，我想你会同意，特斯拉的投资者关系负责人所说的“下一代车辆平台不会启动，直到特斯拉更接近于充分利用现有的生产能力，这可能需要几年时间”的这句话有点出人意料，因为有些人预计他们会在2025年第一季度推出这款自动出租车。不过，在自动出租车推出之前，特斯拉是否会先推出一款更实惠的传统车辆，这些问题希望我们能在几个星期内得到答案。

This was a really good comparison video showing the adaptive headlights for this new feature when you actually go around a corner. They will shift so you can see around the corner a lot better. Ford's low cost EV Skunkworks team has now grown to 300 employees over the past year. That includes 50 coming from Rivian more than 20 from Tesla and a dozen from canoe. It also hired around 10 employees from Lucid and a handful from Apple. Ford also hired two senior aerodynamicists away from Formula One. So far it's a pretty lean team with potentially a lot of talent and some great experience so I really like what I'm hearing about this project. For the said all of our EV teams are ruthlessly focused on cost and efficiency in our EV products because the ultimate competition is going to be the affordable Tesla and the Chinese OEMs.

这是一部很好的对比视频，展示了新功能——自适应前大灯。当你转弯时，它们会随之转动，让你更好地看清前方。福特的低成本电动车创新团队在过去一年里已经增长到300名员工，其中包括50名来自Rivian，超过20名来自特斯拉，还有十几名来自Canoo。此外，还从Lucid招聘了大约10名员工，以及从苹果公司招聘了一些人。福特还从一级方程式赛车（Formula One）挖来了两名高级空气动力学专家。到目前为止，这个团队规模较小，但潜力巨大，人才济济，经验丰富，所以我对这个项目充满了期待。福特表示，我们所有的电动车团队都无情地专注于成本和效率，因为最终的竞争对手将是价格实惠的特斯拉和中国的原始设备制造商（OEMs）。

I think Ford has the right strategy get its Gen 1 EVs out into the market do as best you can with them but then for generation two really go back to first principles start over and figure it out from the ground up. The UAW has reached its first agreement with an EV battery plant here in the US. If this deal is ratified by the members it'll double the pay of workers at the Altium plant in Lordstown, Ohio. This is the one that's a joint venture between GM and LG. If it's ratified this agreement will raise the top production wage from $20 after 7 years on the job to $35 after 1 year on the job by the end of the deal. The starting wage will increase from $16.50 per hour to $26.91. Most members will see a $3.59 an hour raise immediately. They said workers will have better health and safety language at Altium than anywhere in the industry.

我认为福特的策略很正确，先把第一代电动汽车推向市场，尽可能做到最好，然后在第二代时回归基础原理，从头开始研究解决方案。美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）已经与美国的一家电动汽车电池厂达成了首份协议。如果该协议得到成员的批准，将会使俄亥俄州洛兹敦的Altium工厂的工人工资翻倍。这个工厂是通用汽车和LG的合资企业。如果协议获得批准，协议结束时，工人的最高生产工资将从工作7年后的20美元提高到工作1年后的35美元。起始工资将从每小时16.50美元增加到26.91美元。大多数成员将立即看到每小时3.59美元的加薪。他们表示，Altium工厂的工人在健康和安全方面的保障将优于行业内的任何其他地方。

This is certainly great for all of the workers but when it comes to GM's competitiveness with its Altium vehicles and the margins certainly not as great. If you need one last dose of encouragement before the vote tomorrow, Florida's pension board voted in support of Elon's comp plan. They own 2.89 million shares and their Tesla's 80th biggest investor. We have Waymo issuing a software and a mapping recall after one of their robot axes crashed into a phone pole. The accident happened last month and they said the vehicle was damaged but no passengers or bystanders were hurt in the incident. The test highlights some of the challenges of relying on updated HD maps to such a large degree. Waymo said they would update their maps to account for the hard road edge in the alleyway that was not previously included.

这对所有工人来说确实是好消息，但就通用汽车的Altium车辆的竞争力和利润率而言，情况就不那么乐观了。如果你在明天的投票前需要最后一剂鼓励，佛罗里达的养老金委员会已经投票支持埃隆的薪酬计划。他们拥有289万股特斯拉股票，是特斯拉的第80大投资者。我们还了解到Waymo发布了一个软件和地图的召回通知，因为他们的一辆自动驾驶汽车撞上了电话杆。事故发生在上个月，车辆受损，但没有乘客或行人受伤。此次测试突显了过度依赖高清地图所带来的一些挑战。Waymo表示，他们将更新地图，以包括之前未被覆盖的巷道边缘。

Tesla's thought closed the day at $177.29 up 3.88% while the NASDAQ was up 1.53%. It was a higher volume day for Tesla trading about 18 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days. My plan for the next 2 days on the channel will be to upload a video tomorrow, later Thursday night sometime after the annual meeting and then to take the day off on Friday. Depending on what Ashley and I choose to do for my birthday weekend and depending on the news flow I may send out a newsletter edition on Friday. But either way, don't expect a video from electrified on Friday. Hopefully tomorrow you all can enjoy the meeting. Just remember no matter what happens with all of this voting, it's just the next step. It's by no means the end of the story either way. It's really just the next milestone and no matter how it goes, I would expect Tesla to play the hand it's dealt very well.

特斯拉今天收盘价为$177.29，上涨了3.88%，而纳斯达克指数上涨了1.53%。今天特斯拉的交易量较大，大约为1800万股，超过过去30天的平均交易量。接下来两天，我计划在频道上上传视频，明天会上传一个，周四晚上年会结束后会再上传一个，然后周五休息。如果我和Ashley决定怎么庆祝我的生日周末，根据新闻的情况，我可能会在周五发布一版新闻通讯。但不管怎样，周五不要期待会有新的视频。希望大家明天能享受这个会议。记住，不管这次投票结果如何，这仅仅是下一步。无论结果如何，这都不是故事的结束。这实际上只是下一个里程碑，不管结果如何，我都期待特斯拉会很好地应对局面。

And as most of us know, sometimes that's really all you can do. Although I will say I'm feeling a lot more optimistic about Elon's comp plan vote now than I was a few weeks back. The moving to Texas vote feels like a flip of the coin if anything may be leaning doubtful. But we'll find out soon enough. I hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X-linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

大家都知道，有时候能做到这些已经很不错了。不过，我现在对埃隆的薪酬计划投票比几周前更乐观了。而关于搬到德州的投票，目前感觉结果难以预测，甚至有点不太看好。不过我们很快就会知道结果了。希望大家有个美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。你可以在下面的链接找到我，非常感谢所有支持我的Patreon粉丝们。