The Auto Lending Expert: Consumer Financing is Broken in the U.S.

If you don't have a pretty history or you don't have a FICO score, you're pretty much shut out of the system. Testas have been definitely one of the best performing models from a delinquency perspective. The past five years, we didn't have really one year that was a normal year. Every year was like something crazy happening.

如果你没有一个良好的信用记录或者没有FICO信用分数，那么你基本上就被这个系统排除在外了。从违约的角度来看，特斯拉绝对是表现最好的车型之一。在过去的五年里，我们没真正过过一个正常年份。每年好像都有一些疯狂的事情发生。

Before we get into the show, a thank you to our sponsors, CDK Global, Autoholler Exchange, and Len Buzz, for making this episode possible. Let's get into it. I'm Mattai on the CDG podcast. I'm Mattai, welcome. Hi, how are you? Thanks for having me. Good to have you on. I think it's funny. This is, in a way, this is closing the circle here. We met when I was still at GettaCar, and we partnered up when I was at GettaCar, so it's great to have you on.

在我们开始节目之前，先感谢我们的赞助商：CDK Global、Autoholler Exchange 和 Len Buzz，正是他们让这一集成为可能。好了，开始吧。我是CDG播客的主持人马泰。欢迎大家，我是马泰。你好，最近怎么样？谢谢邀请。很高兴你能来。我觉得这很有趣，从某种意义上来说，这是个一段关系的闭环。我们在我还在GettaCar工作时认识，并且在那时合作，所以很高兴邀请你来。

Yeah, I really appreciate you inviting me. It was definitely closing a circle. It was fun to interact at the previous time and fun today. A lot of it's changed since, to say the least.

是啊，非常感谢你的邀请。这次算是一个了结。上次的互动很有趣，今天也很开心。简单来说，很多事情已经发生了变化。

All right, well, we got a lot to talk about today. Autolending has been a very hot topic over these last couple of years, especially with just interest rates and everything that's changed in our market. It's funny that one of the ways where I sort of wedged into the market and the CDG and the brand grew was actually through autolending, specifically through talking about autolending as over the last couple of years, with everything that happened.

好的，今天我们有很多话题要讨论。过去这两年，汽车贷款一直是个热门话题，尤其是在利率和市场变化方面。很有意思的是，我和我的公司CDG品牌能够打入市场，实际上是通过汽车贷款，特别是通过这两年围绕汽车贷款的讨论。

Many lenders pulled out of the market. I covered that a lot. And so it's a pretty meaningful topic to me given the fact that I've just been really involved with the different lenders, and I've seen a lot change. And as have many people that have listened to this podcast, I think it's gonna be super interesting.

许多贷款机构退出了市场。我对此已经详细讨论过很多次了。鉴于我一直密切参与各种贷款机构的工作，并见证了许多变化，这对我来说是个非常有意义的话题。正如许多听这个播客的人一样，我认为这将会是个非常有趣的内容。

But I wanna start as usual, like we do on the podcast about you, if you can just tell us a little bit about yourself, how does an investment banker, a tech investment banker, make his way into the auto business? Whether directly or indirectly, how did this happen? Tell us a little bit about yourself. My background is definitely not in auto. I'm not coming from an auto dealership family. My background is in computer science and math.

但我想像往常一样开始，就像我们在播客中那样，先聊聊你自己。你能不能稍微介绍一下自己，一个投资银行家，特别是一个科技投资银行家，是怎么进入汽车行业的？不管是直接还是间接，怎么发生的？请告诉我们一些关于你的事情。我的背景绝对不是汽车行业，我也不是来自汽车经销商家庭。我的背景是计算机科学和数学。

I led R&D terms at my early days for about six years. And then moved to the Boston area about 16 years ago to do my MBA here, graduated and joined Deutsche Bank. So transition from R&D and technology into corporate finance and specific investment banking was focused on IPOs, M&A, of large tech companies.

我在职业生涯初期领导了大约六年的研发团队。大约16年前，我搬到了波士顿地区攻读MBA并顺利毕业，之后加入了德意志银行。因此，我从研发和技术领域转向了企业金融，具体来说是专注于科技大公司的IPO（首次公开募股）和并购业务。

And then at some point, I realized that I wanna do something that's more entrepreneurial, more building my own business path. And really around 2013, 14, 15, there has been a very significant growth in FinTech. It was not really called FinTech at the time, but it was very clear that financial technology is growing faster, gonna be a lot of innovation around it. And I thought that my background in both computer science as well as corporate finance would be relevant in the new FinTech sub-segment.

然后在某个时刻，我意识到自己想做一些更具创业精神的事情，建立自己事业的道路。其实在2013年、2014年、2015年这段时间，金融科技（当时还不叫“金融科技”）有了非常显著的增长。很明显，金融技术正在快速发展，会有大量的创新。我觉得自己在计算机科学和公司金融方面的背景在新的金融科技子领域里会很有用。

And then I approached it more about more from the angle of consumer finance, not necessarily auto. So what issues, what problems are there in consumer finance and then dived into auto. I would say that my first Euro two in auto lending, I was very much clueless on the ecosystem of auto and dealerships and how things really work.

然后，我更多地从消费者金融的角度来处理这个问题，而不仅仅是汽车方面的。所以，我先研究消费者金融中的问题和难题，然后再深入探讨汽车领域。可以说，在我最初的两年里，我对于汽车贷款、汽车生态系统和经销商的运作方式基本上没有多少了解。

But I had good, I learned from people in the industry pretty quickly and I think now I'm fully caught up. So as someone that came in from the outside, and for what it's worth, you've been doing this not for eight years. So it's not quite an outsider anymore, but we see this every day, it's sometimes you see something, you get used to it.

但我学得很快，从行业里的人那儿学到了很多东西，现在我觉得自己已经完全跟上了。所以，作为一个外行进入这个领域的人，实际上你已经做了八年多了，不能再算是个外行了。但是，我们每天都在看到这些东西，有时候你看习惯了，就会习以为常。

It's hard to actually tell the difference from other industries. So what did you see, what's nuanced about the way we do lending in auto. Did anything strike out at you as like, this needs to be better or this is like a broken process. I mean, what struck out at you when you first, were exposed to auto lending in our business.

很难真正看出与其他行业的区别。那么你看到了什么，我们在汽车贷款方面的做法有什么细微差别？有什么让你觉得需要改进或者觉得这个过程存在问题的地方吗？我指的是，当你第一次接触我们业务中的汽车贷款时，什么让你特别注意到了吗？

I think the main thing that struck out that is broken was specifically in consumer, consumer finance in the US is the fact that everything is based on credit history and credit score. And, you know, if you don't have credit history or you don't have a FICO score, you're pretty much shut out of the system. That didn't make sense to me.

我认为，消费者领域，特别是美国的消费金融，存在的主要问题是：一切都基于信用记录和信用评分。如果你没有信用记录或FICO评分，基本上就会被社会系统排除在外。这让我觉得不合理。

When I moved to the Boston area, I didn't have credit history. I was unable to get, you know, a credit card and auto loan and mortgage. So this is really the, I would say, the core problem that we looked initially into. And then as we looked at, okay, where is the pain point, the greatest out of all consumer finance products, we figured out that auto is the one that's most critical to solve because eventually you can do okay without a credit card.

当我搬到波士顿地区时，我没有信用记录。我无法获得信用卡、汽车贷款和抵押贷款。所以这是我们最初关注的核心问题。然后我们考虑，在哪类消费金融产品中问题最严重，我们发现汽车贷款是最关键的，因为没有信用卡你还能过得去，但没有汽车贷款就很难了。

You can, you know, work with your debit card. It also takes quicker to get access to credit cards. Mortgages, comment, and much later stage in your life. Your, you know, your first house is gonna be, you're gonna buy it usually after you bought one, two, three cars. So if you solve auto, you solve the biggest part of that problem. So that's why we thought about tackling auto. And then once you start digging into auto, if you're from the outside, as you said, it's similar to how you started, you started this podcast talking a lot about lending. Really, auto is the consumer product that's mostly driven by lending. Financing is so critical to that product. It's really driving a lot of sort of what a consumer can purchase, how they can purchase it.

你可以使用你的借记卡，同样也可以更快地获得信用卡的使用权。抵押贷款等金融产品通常在你的生活后期才会用到。通常来说，你会在买第一套房之前先买一到三辆车。所以，如果你解决了汽车购买的问题，就解决了很大一部分问题。这就是为什么我们考虑从汽车入手的原因。 一旦你开始深入研究汽车行业，就像你提到的，这与你开始这个播客时谈论大量贷款问题是相似的。在消费品中，汽车购买主要是由贷款驱动的。融资在这个产品中至关重要，它实际上决定了消费者能购买什么以及如何购买。

So that's, if you're able to do it better, that makes a huge difference for specifically for this consumer product, definitely learning the FNI office and understanding how that operates. It's a very unique set, right? It doesn't operate in any, it doesn't operate similar to anything else in retail. So, you know, it's a. Let me also add something there. Like this is, you know, one of the things that lots of new operators learn very quickly in auto is that you are at the mercy of your lending relationships, right? It's, you don't have lenders, you don't have a business. It's extremely difficult to operate without quality.

所以，如果你能够把这部分做得更好，这对这个消费产品会有巨大的影响。特别是了解和掌握FNI部门的运作方式是非常重要的。这是一个非常独特的体系，不像其他任何零售业的运作方式。所以，呃……我还想补充一点，许多新进入汽车行业的运营者很快就会发现，你非常依赖于你的贷款关系。没有贷款方，你就没有业务。没有优质的贷款关系，运营起来是非常困难的。

I see you smiling because it's the truth. Like it's a lot of operators. Like if I could tell you every week I get a DM from some dealer asking me about some lender or, hey, I'm a new dealer, maybe looking for lenders. Who do you recommend for, you know, this type of profiles? So, it's definitely an industry where, you know, lending you're sort of at the mercy of it. And by the way, it used to be different. When I started in the business, our percentage of cash buyers was a lot higher and it went down over the years. I know that, you know, recently as of the last two years, it's gotten higher. You know, I spoke with a Cadillac dealer yesterday and he told me that I don't know, like 50% of the escalates he's selling are like cash nowadays, like some crazy percentage. So the point being that, you know, interest rates have, you know, left people with, you know, high disposable income to go cash.

我看到你在笑，因为这是真的。有很多运营商。如果我能告诉你，每周我都会收到一些经销商的私信，问我关于某个借贷机构的情况，或者告诉我自己是新经销商，询问我推荐哪种借贷机构。可以说，这个行业真的在借贷方面存在很大的依赖性。顺便说一句，以前情况不一样。当我刚开始进入这个行业的时候，现金买家的比例要高得多，但随着时间的推移，这个比例下降了。不过，最近两年这个比例又上升了。我昨天跟一家凯迪拉克经销商谈过，他告诉我，如今他卖出的凯雷德(SUV型号)大约有50%是用现金支付的，这个比例非常惊人。关键是，高利率让一些高收入的人倾向于用现金支付。

But needless to say, we know that, you know, we're at the mercy in this industry. This episode is brought to you by CDK Global. CDK Global has been empowering nearly 15,000 dealers with the tools and technology they need to build deeper relationships with customers. Their team is keenly aware of the state of dealership technology.

但不用说，我们都知道，在这个行业中，我们常常身不由己。本集节目由CDK Global赞助。CDK Global为近15,000家经销商提供了他们所需的工具和技术，以建立更深层次的客户关系。他们的团队非常了解经销商技术的现状。

And while many vendors promise seamless experiences between your CRM, DMS, digital retail and fixed ops, most of these bolt-on solutions tend to break workflows cause more harm than good. That is why CDK has launched a new dealership experience platform. This new integrated software consists of everything you need to operate a dealership officially while delivering an unparalleled experience to your customers. Basically, everything working together, not separate, one system to run your dealership as opposed to 10.

虽然许多供应商承诺在客户关系管理系统 (CRM)、经销商管理系统 (DMS)、数字零售和固定业务之间提供无缝体验，但大多数这些附加解决方案往往会破坏工作流程，带来更多麻烦而不是好处。因此，CDK 推出了一个全新的经销商体验平台。这款全新的集成软件包含了正式运营经销商所需的一切，同时为客户提供无与伦比的体验。基本上，所有功能都在一个系统内协同工作，而不是依赖多个系统分开运行。

CDK developed it with an outside-in approach, listening to dealers every step of the way. You can learn more about CDK's dealership experience platform by visiting CDKglobal.com/DXP or clicking the link in the show notes below. Before you tell us a little bit about what you're working on today specifically, can you give us a little overview of the current state of auto lending? Like where are we at today? Like I mentioned earlier in the podcast, right? The last two years, lots of lenders pulled back. The market really tightened up meaningfully. It's got loose or since then, but can you just give us a little kind of lay of the land where we're at today?

CDK采用了一种由外而内的方法开发了这个平台，倾听经销商在每一步的反馈。你可以访问CDKglobal.com/DXP或点击下方节目备注中的链接，了解更多关于CDK经销体验平台的信息。在介绍你今天具体在做什么之前，你能否先大致讲一下当前汽车贷款市场的状况？比如我们现在处于什么样的境地？正如我在播客稍早提到的，在过去两年中，许多贷款机构收紧了贷款政策。市场显著紧缩。虽然从那以后市场有所宽松，但你能否详细说明一下当前的情况？

It's a good question. I think it's funny to think about it. The past five years, we didn't have really one year that was a normal year. Every year was something crazy happening, whether it's like COVID coming in and then stimulus money and exuberant lending in 21 and then things shifting back. It seems like 24 has somewhat been the first more normalized year. Obviously at high rates, but somewhat of a normal year. I would say that we've seen during 23, a significant pullback in auto lending, specifically into, I would say two brackets. One is the banks. So banks, credit unions had significant funding issues. As deposits were flowing away from the banks, that pressure on their funding and as a result, they significantly pulled back on their auto lending. Some platforms that which were very large platforms, like citizens, BMO, completely pulled out of the market and some just drastically reduced their auto lending. That's one.

这是个好问题。我觉得想一想挺有意思的。过去五年中，我们几乎没有一年是正常的。每一年都发生了一些疯狂的事情，比如COVID-19的爆发，然后是经济刺激资金和21年的过度贷款，接着情况又发生了变化。24年似乎是第一个稍微正常化的一年，尽管利率很高，但算是比较正常的一年。我想说，在23年里，我们看到汽车贷款显著减少，特别是在两个方面。一个是银行。由于存款从银行流失，银行和信用社面临严重的资金问题，因此大幅削减了汽车贷款业务。一些非常大的平台，比如Citizens银行和BMO银行，完全退出了市场，还有一些则大幅减少了汽车贷款业务。就是这样。

And the second one is specialty lenders, specifically non-prime specialty lenders that had delinquency issues or basically credit issues have been pulling back significant and really cutting the credit box in many different ways. Some went out of business, some remained in the business, but are originating it, probably 50% lower than what they originated during 21 into 22. I think 24 is the first year that things have somewhat normalized. You definitely see the captives taking a bigger share of the overall pie. You see some of the banks that are stronger balance sheet, better credit performance like Chase that are continuing to grow nicely. And then with the specialty lenders, specifically non-prime, it depends how well they weathered the huge spike in delinquencies.

第二种是专业贷款机构，特别是那些非优质的专业贷款机构，它们存在逾期还款问题或信用问题，因此大幅度收缩业务，在许多方面严格限制贷款标准。一些公司倒闭了，一些仍在经营，但它们的贷款发放量大约比2021至2022年时减少了50%。我认为情况在2024年才有所好转。你会看到，厂商金融公司占据了更大份额的市场。有些资产负债表更强、信用表现更好的银行，例如Chase，继续稳步增长。而对于非优质专业贷款机构来说，还要看它们在逾期率大幅上升时的应对情况如何。

So specifically non-prime auto, we've, I don't think it's well known or appreciated as much, but we've basically, at the end of 23 surpassed the peak of sub-prime auto delinquencies versus what it was in 08.09. So we're basically at the worst place than the great financial crisis in sub-prime auto. The ones that have taken large losses have been pulling back and say lenders like us that have fared relatively well are continuing to grow fast. There's always been this trend in our business where some new lender comes in hot and they grab a ton of market share, at least from your in-store market share and two years later they disappear.

具体来说，关于非优质汽车贷款的问题，我认为这个现象并没有被充分认识和重视。在2023年末，非优质汽车贷款违约率已经超过了2008-2009年金融危机时期的峰值。也就是说，现在的情况在非优质汽车贷款方面比那次金融危机时更糟糕。那些承受了巨大损失的贷款机构已经开始收缩，而像我们这样表现相对较好的贷款机构则在持续快速增长。我们这个行业一直有一个趋势：一些新的贷款机构刚开始时发展迅猛，迅速抢占市场份额，特别是在实体店市场，但两年后它们常常就消失了。

I'm sure every GM owner, sales manager who listened to this has experienced this where suddenly just X-lenders like, oh, that's it, we're out for business. And it's honestly so predictable, you can just tell who's coming in to Gung Ho and really aggressively likely just getting too deep into the FICO. Explain to us what problem are you solving today? Like your business land boss, can you just give us an overview, a brief overview of what you're actually setting out to solve in the market?

我相信每位通用汽车的车主和销售经理都经历过这种情况，突然某些贷款机构就说：“我们不再做生意了。” 这其实非常可以预测，你一眼就能看出哪些公司进来时非常热情和激进，很可能陷得太深于FICO（信用评分）。能不能解释一下你今天解决的是什么问题？比如你的业务领域老板，能简单概述一下你在市场中打算解决什么问题吗？

So land boss is an AI-based auto financing platform and we focus on using alternative data, AI to provide better access to consumer credit, specifically auto finance for underserved populations. The first segment of the market that we focused on and developed our credit models for, we're people with no FICO score. So think about people that are either, do not have a credit file or they have a file that's too thin to be scored by FICO. These individuals were always defaulted to the deep subprime lenders, getting loans at state max rate, very high fee to the dealerships, 1,000, 1,500, $2,000 discount on that contract. The way we thought about it is that it's a relatively large market significantly underserved by traditional lenders, there are about 45 to 50 million people living in the US without a FICO score.

所以，Land Boss 是一个基于人工智能的汽车融资平台，我们专注于利用替代数据和人工智能为消费者提供更好的信用获取服务，特别是面向那些被传统金融机构忽视的群体的汽车融资。我们最初关注并开发信用模型的市场细分是没有FICO信用评分的人。想想那些没有信用档案或信用档案太薄而无法被FICO评分的人。这些人通常只能通过深度次级贷款人获得贷款，贷款利率极高，且支付给经销商的费用非常高，合同上往往有1000、1500甚至2000美元的折扣。我们的考虑是，这实际上是一个相对较大的市场，但传统贷款机构严重忽视，有大约4500万到5000万在美国生活的人没有FICO信用评分。

If we can build credit models that qualify the ones that are likely to perform better, that's a significant opportunity. As we deployed our software solution and the auto leadership started receiving credit applications, what we saw is that our credit models significantly outperform FICO for the near prime consumer. So think about FICO's of 580 to 720. And today these are the two main segments of the market that we serve, the no FICO consumer and as well as the near prime consumer, sort of 580 to 720 FICO. And we're able to serve these customers, providing them a better rate, lower fee to the dealership, as well as 100% tech enabled process so digital, mobile enabled, getting the deal both approved and funded much faster versus a traditional non-prime vendor.

如果我们能够构建信用模型来识别那些可能表现更好的客户，那就是一个巨大的机会。当我们部署了软件解决方案后，汽车行业的领导开始收到信用申请，我们发现我们的信用模型在接近优良的消费者群体中显著优于FICO。这里指FICO评分在580到720之间的客户。而现在，这两个群体是我们主要服务的对象，无FICO评分的消费者以及FICO评分在580到720之间的接近优良消费者。我们能够为这些客户提供更好的利率，降低经销商的费用，并且通过100%技术支持的流程——数字化、移动化，使得交易的批准和资金发放比传统的次优供应商快得多。

How does someone like yourself come up with this idea, execute on it and compete with these behemoths in the market? We know there's some auto lenders super entrenched in our industry that have been doing this. How do you actually create a model that's profitable? How do you get these customers approved or with better rates more efficiently? How are you really doing this? Auto lending has been around for almost a century now probably or less than that, but a long time. And there are large incumbents that are doing very well in the market and serving consumers and dealerships every day. But it's still such a large market, about 750 billion of annual auto loan origination, there are sub segments in the market that are underserved.

像您这样的人是如何想到这个主意，并将其付诸实施并与市场上的巨头竞争的？我们知道在我们的行业中有一些汽车贷款机构已经根深蒂固，已经这样做了很久。您实际上是如何创建一个有利可图的模型的？您如何更高效地批准客户贷款或提供更好的利率？您真正是怎么做到的？汽车贷款已经存在了将近一个世纪或者稍短一点的时间，市场上有一些大的老牌公司每天都在服务消费者和经销商。但是这个市场依然很大，每年大约有7500亿美元的新车贷款发放，有一些细分市场仍然没有得到充分服务。

Specifically from a regulation perspective, the regulatory framework around the banks, especially after 0809 really precluded them from serving well people that don't have a FICO score. It's very penal to their balance sheets, to the regulatory capital that they have to set aside. So if you're able to build a credit model that serves this segment of the market, you're gonna do it better than the large banks, the traditional lenders that have been serving the market, whether it's the prime banks or the captives. The way we thought about it is what type of data is relevant for consumer credit that we can focus on. And we've been focusing on, I would say, a very large set of data, but if I'm trying to focus on the things that really matter for underwriting, it's you can think about as cash flow based underwriting. So focusing rather than your credit file, is focusing on your cash flow. What is the level of your income? What is the pattern of your income? What is your spending patterns? What are the balances in your account? What's coming in? What's coming out? So really trying to build a full financial profile of that individual that doesn't have a credit file, but might have both ability to pay has been managing their lives in a responsible way or their financials in a responsible way, and has both ability to pay and willingness to pay.

具体从监管角度来看，尤其是经过2008-2009年金融危机之后，银行的监管框架实际上使它们无法很好地为没有FICO信用评分的人提供服务。这对它们的资产负债表和必须预留的监管资本非常不利。所以，如果你能够建立一个能够服务于这个市场细分的信用模型，你将比大型银行、传统贷款机构，包括主要银行或附属机构做得更好。我们设想的是，什么类型的数据对消费信贷而言是相关的，我们可以重点关注。我们一直在关注大量的数据，但如果要专注于对审批最重要的数据，可以考虑基于现金流的信贷审批。即不再关注你的信用档案，而是关注你的现金流。你的收入水平、收入模式、支出模式、账户余额、资金进出等。这是为了尝试建立一个没有信用档案但可能有支付能力且一直以负责任方式管理其生活或财务的个体的完整财务概况，这样的个体既有支付能力也有支付意愿。

Since it's a very large set of data for each individual, you're not really able to do it without using AI or machine learning algorithms. So one aspect here is the set of data, and the other aspect is, okay, which type of model, which type of algorithms are you gonna use in order to analyze the data? So we've been fortunate to start this business in a time where machine learning, deep neural networks, AI has been growing very fast. There was a lot of innovation in that space, so we can actually deploy new algorithms and new computer science methodologies to a large set of data that's relevant for credit underwriting. And once you do it, you get better outcomes in predicting credit risk, predicting credit worthiness, and able to serve a segment of the market that hasn't been served by the banks for many years.

由于每个人的数据量都非常大，如果不使用人工智能或机器学习算法，无法进行有效处理。因此，这里有两个方面需要考虑：一方面是数据集，另一方面是你将使用哪种类型的模型，哪种算法来分析这些数据。我们很幸运在这个机器学习、深度神经网络、人工智能快速发展的时代开始我们的业务。这个领域有很多创新，所以我们能够将新的算法和计算机科学方法应用到信贷审批相关的大数据上。这样做后，我们能够更好地预测信用风险和评估信用价值，从而服务于那些多年来未被银行覆盖的市场部分。

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Now, how big is this opportunity? Right? Again, any deal or listening to this has definitely witnessed a consumer that has a thin file or that doesn't get approved or maybe gets approved on terrible terms. We all know the opportunity exists, but put some numbers behind it. How big are you really, how prevalent is this right now across the country? That's a good question. So overall, if you think about the target market, there are 45 to 50 million consumers in the US that do not have a FICO score. So it's one large segment of the market. And then about 30% of the consumers are in that near prime segment. So sort of 580 to 720 or 550 to 720. So about 40% of total consumers in the US fall into the bucket of consumers that we serve really well. We've been growing extremely fast so it definitely is a proof that there is a need in the market. We've been growing over 100% Kager for the past five years, basically meaning that we continue to double the business every year. We're currently at about a 1.5 billion annual run rate of loan origination. So doing about a 1.5 billion a year. And we plan to continue to grow that. We're working with very large leadership. So for example, seven out of the 10 largest Toyota dealerships nationwide. I'm talking about dealerships that sell 800, 1,500 cars a month are working with us. And we're either number one or number two after their captive after Toyota financial service. So very large in terms of serving customers in these dealerships. We've been growing fast into a large opportunity. I would say probably three out of the five largest nationwide groups are working with us. We're both at the very large franchise dealerships as well as the independence. We like the independence as much as the franchise dealerships. We think that the same opportunity, the same issues that are at the large franchise dealerships exist at the independent year.

现在，这个机会有多大呢？对吧？任何参与交易或了解市场的人都肯定见证过那些资料不充分的消费者，或者那些得不到批准，或者以糟糕条件获批的情况。我们都知道这个市场机会存在，但我们来看看具体数据。这个市场到底有多大？在全国范围内这种情况有多普遍？这是一个好问题。总体而言，如果你考虑目标市场，在美国大约有4500万到5000万消费者没有FICO信用评分。这是市场中的一个大群体。此外，大约30%的消费者属于接近优质信用的分类，即信用评分在580到720或550到720之间。所以，美国大约40%的总消费者属于我们非常擅长服务的消费群体。 我们增长速度非常快，这也证明了市场确实存在需求。在过去五年中，我们的复合年增长率超过100%，这基本上意味着我们每年都在翻倍增长。现在，我们的年贷款发放量约为15亿美元，每年大约处理15亿美元的贷款。我们计划继续这种增长，并与非常大的领导机构合作。例如，全国排名前十的丰田经销商中，有七家与我们合作。这些经销商每月销售800到1500辆车，而我们在这些经销商中，要么排名第一要么排名第二，仅次于丰田金融服务。在服务这些经销商的客户方面，我们非常强大。我们在全国最大的五个集团中有三个与我们合作。我们既服务于非常大型的品牌经销商，也包括独立经销商。我们同样重视独立经销商，因为我们认为大型品牌经销商面临的机会和问题在独立经销商也同样存在。

Talk to me. So you have obviously lots of exposure across the country to these dealers. Talk to me a little bit about what are the trends you're currently seeing on the ground floor? Where are we heading as an industry right now in terms of loan performance? You mentioned that subprime loans are not fair and too well. Where are we heading? What's coming up next? I think there has been extreme exuberance in lending during 21 into 22. And that's basically both credit quality as well as the issues we had with extremely elevated pricing. So if you think about 22 pricing, both used cars and new cars were selling at extreme elevated levels. We as a result, everything that goes up too quickly goes down. We're now at a point where the delinquencies have shot up significantly from an all time low in subprime auto of about 5, 6% monthly delinquencies to I think about 16% it hits as we were going into the seasonality of sort of the January 24.

跟我聊聊天吧。显然你在全国范围内与这些经销商有很多接触。跟我说说你现在在一线看到的趋势是什么？就贷款表现而言，我们的行业现在正朝哪个方向发展？你提到次级贷款的表现不太好，我们的方向是什么？接下来会发生什么？我认为在2021年到2022年期间，借贷方面有过度的热情。这基本上影响了信用质量以及我们当时面临的极高价格问题。如果你考虑2022年的价格，无论是二手车还是新车，售价都处在极高的水平。因此，所有迅速上升的事情都会下降。现在我们处于一个阶段，违约率从次级汽车贷款的历史最低点（大约5%-6%的月度违约率）显著上升至大约16%，尤其是在我们进入2024年1月的季节性时期。

We're either at the peak of the delinquencies or very close to the peak just based on historical data. If that continues to go up, it would be a very concerning trend. But I think we've hit the peak and now we're seeing normalization. The reason for that normalization is twofold one, all lenders including us have been cutting their credit box. So basically being more responsible and cautious with taking credit risk. So as new loans are coming on the balance sheet, they're performing better than the ones that were originated during 2022, which was a very challenging vintage in our industry. That's one and the second is asset values.

根据历史数据，我们目前要么已经达到拖欠贷款的峰值，要么非常接近峰值。如果这个趋势继续上升，那将是一个非常令人担忧的情况。但我认为我们已经达到了峰值，现在正在看到情况恢复正常。情况恢复正常的原因有两个。第一，所有的贷款机构，包括我们在内，都在缩小信贷范围，基本上是在处理信贷风险时变得更加负责和谨慎。所以新贷款进入资产负债表后，比2022年期间发放的贷款表现得更好，而2022年对于我们行业来说是一个非常具有挑战性的年份。第二个原因是资产价值。

So asset values have come in both used cars as well as new cars, you're not seeing this new car dealership selling $10,000 over sticker price. It doesn't exist anymore. So that has normalized and as a result, credit performance is likely to improve which I think overall is very good both for the lenders but also for the dealerships because eventually I think you said it well, the dealership really depends on the lenders to be there in order to drive the business. If credit improves, then lenders are gonna have more appetite to lend, to open the credit box again. I think we're gonna see conditions continue to loosen into 24 and then into 25. And then there is always the question of rates themselves which is a today are extremely high levels based on the past 20, 25 years. We'll see if that's gonna come in. I'm on the camp that it's gonna stay higher for much longer than people plan for or thought but I'm not going to predict them accurately.

所以，无论是二手车还是新车，现在的资产价值都已经稳定下来，你不会再看到新车经销商以高于标价1万美元的价格出售新车了。这种情况已经不复存在了。随着市场恢复正常，信贷表现可能也会改善，我认为这对贷款方和经销商来说都是非常好的消息。因为正如你所说，经销商实际上依赖贷款方来推动业务。如果信贷状况改善，贷款方就会有更多意愿放贷，重新开放信贷市场。我认为我们会看到这种情况在2024年和2025年继续放宽。至于利率问题，现在的利率水平在过去的20到25年中处于非常高的水平。我们要看这种情况是否会改变。我认为利率会保持高位，更长时间内不会像人们预期的那样降低，但我不会准确预测未来的利率走向。

You've been in the bank for a decade or two years. You mentioned captives, how captives have been growing in market share. And again, for anyone listening that's not familiar with the term captives, of course, is the lending arm of an associated auto manufacturer. So if you're Toyota, you have Toyota Financial and et cetera. What's driving the growth in captives? Is this strictly a form of just subsidy? Whether you can put a rebate or you can put a subvented rate on an incentive or is there any other drivers behind the scenes that are really getting captive to shoot up in market share like they have been recently? It's mostly driven by this significant pullback of the banks and the credit unions. So the local banks, the regional banks, the credit unions that have been very large players in the space have been deploying capital into auto lending for many years and actually growing share have pulled significantly starting in 22, driven mostly by funding issues.

你在银行工作了十年或二十年，你提到过专属金融公司，这些公司如何在市场份额上越来越大。对于不了解“专属金融公司”这个术语的听众来说，简单地说，它们是与汽车制造商相关的贷款部门。例如，如果你是丰田，就有丰田金融等等。那么，是什么推动了专属金融公司的增长呢？这只是补贴的一种形式吗？比如你可以提供折扣或补贴利率作为激励措施，还是有其他因素在背后推动专属金融公司市场份额的显著提升？主要原因是因为银行和信用合作社的显著撤出。大型的地方银行、区域银行和信用合作社一直是汽车贷款领域的重要参与者，这些机构多年来一直在将资本投入汽车贷款，并且实际上份额也在增长，但从22年开始，由于资金问题，它们开始大幅减少投入。

So their deposits having significant pressure as well as credit issues. So as the credit unions, the local banks, the regional banks have been pulling back, the captives have been filling that gap. They obviously have an intrinsic incentive to make sure that consumers with appropriate credit risk are getting alone, right? So Toyota Financial Service needs to make sure that there is enough capital flowing into the dealerships to finance Toyota vehicles, but it's mostly driven by the significant pullback, unprecedented pullback of banks and credit unions. A question I get off and I think about this a lot is the value of dealers having their own captive lenders, right? It's something that I looked into a ton at Get A Car, we were talking about acquiring a lender and whatnot because it was just so intrinsic to our business. We knew that if you wanna build the best car buying experience, a big part of that is the loan, right? Cause everything centers around the loan, the steps that you need to collect, I mean, everything.

他们的存款压力很大，还有信贷问题。由于信用合作社、地方银行和区域银行在逐步收缩业务，资本公司正在填补这个空缺。他们显然有内在动机确保具有适当信用风险的消费者能够获得贷款，对吧？所以丰田金融服务需要确保足够的资金流入各个经销商，以融资购买丰田汽车，主要原因是银行和信用合作社急剧且前所未有的收缩。有人经常问我，我自己也常常思考，经销商拥有自己的专属贷款机构的价值，对吧？在Get A Car的时候，我深入研究了这个问题，当时我们讨论是否要收购一家贷款机构，因为这对我们的业务来说太重要了。我们知道，如果要打造最佳的购车体验，很大一部分是贷款环节，对吧？因为一切都围绕贷款展开，包括你需要收集的步骤，所有一切。

So with that in mind, I'm curious to know how you think about the state of digital retailing, financing being integrated into that, right? Most dealers don't have their own lender. They do not car max or carvana, where it's fully integrated into their product. And there's no doubt about it that does have an advantage when it comes to the customer experience and ultimately saves time and aggravation for a consumer and a dealer. So what are your thoughts on just the current state of digital retailing with respect in auto business, of course, with respect to lending and that being integrated? That's a good question. I think there is still a lot to do in terms of adopting digital retailing at the dealership and the overall ecosystem. A lot is still paper based, antiquated, even the software that is used, a lot of it has been developed in the 19s and hasn't really caught up with the consumer experience that's expected today.

考虑到这一点，我很想知道您对数字零售和其中融入融资的现状有何看法。大多数经销商没有自己的贷款机构。他们不像CarMax或Carvana那样完全将融资整合到他们的产品中。毫无疑问，这在提升客户体验方面具有优势，并且最终为消费者和经销商节省了时间和减少麻烦。那么，您对当前汽车业务中数字零售与融资整合的现状有何看法？ 这是个好问题。我认为在经销商和整个生态系统中采用数字零售还有很多工作要做。很多流程仍然是基于纸质的，比较陈旧，即便使用的软件也大多是上世纪开发的，并没有真正跟上当今消费者所期望的体验。

I think some lenders are doing a better job in terms of getting there, but it's not where things should be. I think at the dealership, there is definitely room for significant improvement in terms of removing all the paper from this process. If you think about it, only 12% of contracts today are e-contracts. That's an insanely low number. That's still over 80% is paper based, which means you actually get a paper in front of a consumer. They assign it that goes into a FedEx package, getting shipped somewhere to a lender. What we have done is really remove all the paper from the process. 100% of the process is digital, 100% of the process is mobile enabled. All the steps provided are provided from the consumer's phone. If we need a proof of income that comes from linking the bank account on their phone, if we need an idea, they just snap a picture on their phone and that gets uploaded immediately. So once you turn that process to be 100% mobile, you're enabling the consumer to really provide everything that's needed very quickly whether they're shipped and get a much better experience. 100% of our contracts are e-contracts, so nothing is done in paper. And that also significantly accelerates the funding of that all. So if everything has been provided digitally, then you can clear all the steps very quickly.

我认为有些贷款机构在这方面做得更好，但仍然达不到应有的水平。在汽车经销商那里，显然有很大的改进空间，可以完全取消纸质流程。想想看，现在只有12%的合同是电子合同，这个比例低得离谱。也就是说，超过80%的合同仍然是纸质的，这意味着你实际上把一份纸质合同放在消费者面前，他们签好后再放进联邦快递的包裹里，寄给贷款机构。而我们已经完全取消了这个过程中的所有纸质环节。我们的流程100%是数字化的，100%支持移动设备。所有步骤都是通过消费者的手机完成的。如果需要收入证明，就通过手机连上银行账户；如果需要身份证明，他们只需用手机拍照并即时上传。所以，一旦将流程完全移动化，就真正让消费者可以快速提供所有需要的材料，无论他们在哪，都能获得更好的体验。我们100%的合同都是电子合同，完全不涉及纸质文件。这也大大加快了资金融通的速度。既然所有材料都通过数字方式提供，那么所有步骤都可以很快完成。

Over 70% of our loans are funded same day. So really there is no need to wait five to seven days for a loan to get funded. It doesn't get too much. But I want to ask you a question on that. You mentioned only 12% of our industry is e-contracting. You mentioned you're 100%. What's the pinch point? What's holding us up from it as an industry to getting to 50%. What's driving that? Is that from the lender's side or is it from the dealer's side? Both, how do you view that? It's both. So both lenders and dealerships need to adopt technologies that are really driving a 100% digital process. If you're a dealership and you're 100% digital, but you're working with a lender that does require a wet signature, then it doesn't work. And vice versa, right? If the dealership process is still printing out contracts and getting that signature, it doesn't matter that the lender accepts e-contracts. So both sides need to step up and move that process. The software products also are some of them are still relatively old and haven't really caught up, whether it's the DMSs or the LMSs that are at the dealerships have been developed. 80s, 90s are improving, but not there yet. There are definitely DMSs that are much more advanced than others today in the industry that are getting us closer to a 100% digital process.

我们超过70%的贷款在当天就能完成资金拨付。因此，真的没有必要等待五到七天才能拿到贷款。不过我想向你提个问题。你提到我们行业中只有12%使用电子合同，而你们已经实现了100%的电子合同。这里的瓶颈在哪里？是什么阻碍了行业整体达到50%的目标？这是来自贷款方还是经销商方面的原因？其实是双方的问题。贷款机构和经销商都需要采用能够实现100%数字化流程的技术。如果你是一家100%数字化的经销商，但与你合作的贷款机构需要纸质签名，那么这就行不通了。反之亦然，如果经销商仍在打印合同并收集签名，而贷款机构接受电子合同也没用。所以双方都需要共同努力来推进这个流程。另外，一些软件产品也相对较旧，还没有真正跟上时代的步伐，同比仍在使用上世纪80年代、90年代开发的DMS或LMS系统。虽然这些系统在改进，但还没有完全到位。现在行业中确实有一些更加先进的DMS系统，使我们更接近100%数字化流程。

At some point when everything is digital and done over the phone, you're also shifting to a place where a lot of the purchase can be done at home by the consumer and not needing to be at the dealership necessary. I'm not at a camp where there are people that say, okay, in 20 years, they're not gonna be dealerships and we're gonna need it and it's all gonna be direct to consumer. I'm not in that camp, but I definitely think that more can be done by the consumer at home to basically do the entire financing process, do the entire sale process and really get to the dealership to close. We are advancing there. We're definitely making good steps towards that goal, but it's not there yet. And I think once you turn the process to be 100% mobile enabled, you're getting much closer to that goal.

当所有事情都数字化并通过电话完成时，消费者可以在家中完成大量购买，而不需要非得去4S店。我并不认同那些认为在20年后将不再有4S店，所有交易都将直接面向消费者的人。我不在那一派，但我确实认为，消费者在家中可以完成更多事情，包括整个融资过程和销售过程，然后只需要去4S店完成最终手续。我们正朝这个方向推进，已经取得了不错的进展，但还没有完全实现。我认为，一旦这个过程能够100%通过移动设备完成，我们就离目标更近了。

Thinking about a little bit about your company and just the expansion, do you have any aspirations to go into any other parts of the business? Today you're lending, have you looked into insurance? I'm curious to know kind of how you're thinking about the opportunity in general. Given the fact that you're already integrated with so many dealers and so, go ahead. Yeah, I don't think necessarily we're gonna look at other aspects of the business outside of the lending. I think insurance is a good part of the business, but less likely for us to go into it. We are focused on providing a better product for the dealership as well as the consumer on the landing side. We do provide floor plan solutions for independent dealerships, so independent dealerships that have been growing, their business with us, we're providing them attractive floor planning solutions that allow them to accelerate the growth of their business, but less likely for us to go into other parts of auto.

考虑到贵公司以及扩展计划，您是否有其他业务领域的打算？目前您在提供贷款服务，有考虑过保险业务吗？我对贵公司整体机会的看法很感兴趣。鉴于您已经与众多经销商紧密合作，所以，请详细谈谈您的看法。嗯，我认为我们不一定会涉及贷款以外的其他业务方面。我觉得保险是一个不错的业务领域，但我们不太可能进入这个市场。我们专注于为经销商和消费者提供更好的贷款产品。我们也为独立经销商提供库存融资解决方案，这些经销商与我们的合作促进了他们业务的增长，我们提供有吸引力的融资方案来加速他们的业务扩展，但我们不太可能涉足汽车行业的其他部分。

We're definitely growing geographically, so we're Boston based, we started in Massachusetts and expanded on the East Coast. Naturally, Florida has grown to be one of our largest territories on the East Coast. And then more recently expanded on the West Coast, so last year started working in Texas, California, which are obviously large markets. So expansion and growth is mostly geographic focus rather than other, I would say, parts of the auto ecosystem. I think there are others that are more professional than us in sort of the other aspects.

我们正在地理上拓展业务。我们公司总部在波士顿，最早在马萨诸塞州起步，然后扩展到美国东海岸。自然地，佛罗里达逐渐发展成为我们在东海岸最大的区域之一。最近，我们又开始向西海岸扩展，去年开始在德克萨斯和加利福尼亚工作，这些显然是大市场。所以，我们的扩展和增长主要集中在地理方面，而不是汽车生态系统的其他部分。对于那些方面，我认为有其他公司比我们更专业。

So before we wrap up, one of my favorite questions as always is what's exciting to you nowadays? Just thinking really big picture and about anything and everything related to our industry or not, what goes through your mind? The most exciting part in the next probably 10 years is gonna be evolution of AI into the into dealerships and digital retailing. I think it's gonna have a significant impact on how business gets done and how well we serve the consumer. It would be fun to start seeing virtual AI agents starting to really interact with consumers. I've been playing along with all types of solutions there.

在结束之前，我想问一个我最喜欢的问题：最近有什么让你感到兴奋的事情吗？可以考虑大局观，无论是和我们的行业有关的，还是无关的，都可以，简单说说你的想法。接下来的大概十年里，我认为最令人兴奋的部分将是人工智能在汽车经销商和数字零售领域的进化。这将对商业运作以及我们如何更好地服务消费者产生重要影响。看到虚拟AI代理开始真正与消费者互动会是一件很有趣的事情。我一直在尝试各种解决方案。

But once you're really gonna see that rollout, that's gonna have a big impact on how our industry both sells cars as well as finance consumers. So there's a lot to be excited about in the next five years with the evolution of AI and integration of AI into digital retailing and specifically with auto. And then every new model that comes out, we like to follow, we're excited. It's nice to see also the trends around EVs are also fascinating to follow.

一旦你真正看到这种推广，它将对我们的行业在销售汽车和为消费者提供金融服务方面产生巨大影响。因此，未来五年随着人工智能的发展以及人工智能在数字零售领域，特别是汽车行业的整合，有很多值得期待的地方。每推出一款新车型，我们都会密切关注，非常兴奋。同时，看着电动汽车的趋势也很迷人。

Sort of the volatility around it and sort of the hype and now I don't know if it's awakening but it's definitely has been slowing down significantly. We're following it closely, both as a lender but more less than a lender more as a sort of funded person on the side. Yeah, I was gonna ask you because with those price drops on EVs and obviously lots of negative equity, has that thrown a wrench in your models? I mean, what's that board meeting been like? That's a good question.

围绕它的波动性和炒作有点多，现在我不知道它是否正在苏醒，但显然它已经显著放缓了。我们在密切关注它，不仅仅是作为一个贷款机构，更像是一个旁观者。是的，我正想问你，因为电动车价格的下降以及大量的负资产，这是否对你的模型造成了困扰？董事会会议是怎样的情景？这是个好问题。

So we've definitely followed asset values around EVs. The interesting thing, so we're extremely data driven company and everything we do is based on data. The very interesting thing is that, so Tesla obviously represents the lion's share of our EV portfolio that's most of the EVs sold in the US are Teslas. And Teslas have been definitely one of the best performing models from a delinquency perspective. So something about the persona that buys the Tesla as well as the reliability of the vehicles, not too many mechanical issues, drives them to be very good performing credits.

我们一直在关注电动车（EV）资产的价值。值得注意的是，我们公司是一个极度以数据驱动的公司，我们的一切决策都基于数据。有一个非常有趣的现象，那就是特斯拉在我们的电动车投资组合中占了很大份额，因为在美国销售的大部分电动车都是特斯拉。而且从逾期贷款的角度来看，特斯拉一直是表现最好的车型之一。这说明购买特斯拉的消费者类型以及车辆的可靠性（机械问题较少）使得他们成为信用表现非常好的客户。

So overall, despite the fact that values have dropped significantly, we just haven't seen, we have seen a very low default level on Tesla. So we're hoping that that remains the case. We're actually expecting it to remain the case. So we're still in the game of financing EVs, but let's see what's the adoption on the consumer side. It seems like people are definitely less excited these days about getting an EV. Yeah, it's up and down, it's cyclical. So it's gonna be interesting. I'll definitely keep following it closely.

总的来说，尽管价值大幅下降，我们确实没有看到特斯拉的违约率很高。我们希望这种情况保持下去，实际上我们也预计会是这样。因此，我们仍然在进行电动汽车的融资，但要看看消费者方面的接受度如何。最近人们对购买电动汽车的热情似乎减弱了。是的，市场是有涨有跌的，是周期性的。这将会很有趣，我肯定会紧密关注这一趋势。

So Amitai, this was awesome. If anyone wants to learn more about LenBuzz, you can go to LenBuzz.com. We'll also throw up the link in the show notes below. Any closing thoughts for us? First of all, it's thanks a lot for hosting us. It's definitely fun to reconnect and I hope that I get invited again in a year or two. I love it. My pleasure, my friend. It was really good to have you all and thanks for coming on. Thank you.

所以Amitai，这次聊天真是太棒了。如果有人想了解更多关于LenBuzz的信息，可以访问LenBuzz.com。我们也会在下面的节目说明里放上链接。有什么临别寄语吗？ 首先，非常感谢你邀请我们。这次交流非常有趣，希望一两年后还能再被邀请。我非常喜欢这次机会。 我的荣幸，朋友。很高兴有你们的参与，谢谢你们的到来。 谢谢。

This episode is brought to you by my very own car dealership guy, Industry Job Board. CDGjobs.com, my industry job board connecting the best talent and automotive with the best companies, will remain absolutely free for CDG listeners to post and fill available roles at their companies. This free job board is for anyone in automotive, vendors, dealers, lenders, manufacturers, auto tech, everyone. Already, over 100 companies have posted open positions, including Lithium Motors, Recurrent, Credit Acceptance, Vero's Credit, Cars Commerce, Shift Digital, Plug, Full Path, Westlake, Trade Pending, you get the point.

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最棒的是，当这些公司通过CDGjobs.com招聘时，他们雇用的是市场上最了解情况的候选人。所以不要犹豫，今天就访问CDGjobs.com或点击下方节目说明中的链接，添加你的空缺职位吧。网址是CDGjobs.com。

All right, hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating, consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in, I'll see you guys next time. Bye.

好的，希望你喜欢这一集的内容。如果可以，请给我们的播客评分，考虑订阅我们的节目，并查看节目备注里的相关链接。感谢收听，下次再见。再见。