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Now Tesla FSD 12.4 Is...Incredible? / 4680 Update / BYD Gives to Tesla at Cost ⚡️

发布时间 2024-06-06 09:06:55    来源


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Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patron, Ken R. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Just real quick going forward if you're wondering why there's no music for my intro and outro, for whatever reason over the past three weeks, almost every single video I upload I get a copyright strike for a song that I've had the license to. I've been going back and forth with support now for weeks just trying to get on their allow list that they're claiming they do not have. And even after I go through the process of disputing the claim and providing my license, there's still an interim period where my videos are not able to be monetized and it hurts the views so just easier to do without it for now. Shout out to Bill who left a comment on the video from two days ago, notifying me that that Reddit user that was saying version 12.4 was unusable. Well, turns out his cameras became uncalibrated. Just to double check what Bill had brought to my attention, it turns out that same user said update, his cameras are calibrated and now back to working 12.4 is incredible.
欢迎来到 "Electrified" 频道,我是你的主持人 Dylan Loomis。首先感谢我的最新赞助者 Ken R.,感谢你选择支持我的频道。接下来说一下,如果你们注意到最近我的视频前后的音乐消失了,这是因为过去三周几乎每个我上传的视频都因为使用了我有版权许可的音乐而被标记为侵权。为了处理这个问题,我已经和支持团队沟通了好几周,试图把我列入他们所谓的“允许名单”,但他们声称没有这样的名单。即使在我完成版权争议并提供我的许可证后,视频仍有一段时间无法实现盈利,这影响了观看量,所以暂时没有音乐反而更简单。 另外,感谢 Bill 在两天前的视频下留言提醒我,有个Reddit用户说版本12.4无法使用,后来发现是他的摄像头失去了校准。为了确认 Bill 提到的事情,我去查了一下,结果发现那个用户更新消息说他的摄像头已经重新校准,现在版本12.4 正常工作了,非常棒。

My usual commute had one to two driver interventions and now down to zero specifically for the incredible part he was talking about being able to handle unclear road boundaries. The user was asked compared to 12.3. Does it still stop before a stop sign creep forward and then stop again and then proceed to which he said no. Does it still fully stop at stop signs? Yes. Does it still have any hesitation for lane changes? Yes, but less than before. He also said there's a noticeable difference between chill and aggressive, which he did not see before. This is just one tester, but what he said about stopping before a stop sign and then creeping and then stopping and then going that was a big problem for me. So that's very encouraging. And once again, thank you for bringing this to my attention on X Elan said 12.4.1 releases

today to Tesla employees. If that goes well, it'll be released to a limited number of external customers this weekend. There are a massive number of changes to this build. It should arguably be called V 13, but we're sticking to 12. Two other versions are in earlier stages of testing 12.5 and 12.6, which could be called version 14 and version 15. We're starting to get to the point where once known bugs are fixed, it'll take over a year of driving to get even one intervention. So there's a chance a small group of customers get 12.4.1 this weekend and then the wider release starts sometime next week. For the past few days, the sentiment around 12.4 had been fairly negative, but just a reminder of how fast things can change.

Obviously, it's exciting to hear Elon talk about things like one intervention per year with future versions, but let's start with 12.4.1 and see how that goes for customers on a wide release. We also have to keep in mind there's really not a clear definition for an intervention versus a disengagement as these two often get conflated exhibit a when I use FSD. Now I hit the accelerator all the time. We're talking numerous times per each drive. So with that count as an intervention, the way Elon is defining it. Hopefully, some of these initial customers end up posting videos, stress testing 12.4.1 as the rest of us wait our turn. Replying to Alex on X, Elon said the existing factory space talking about Gigatexus was already allocated to vehicle battery and cell production. This is not a matter of tucking a few computers into a corner. You need a kilowatt of power in cooling for each GPU, which would mean 12 megawatts of power in 12 megawatts of cooling. The south extension is custom built for heavy power compute and cooling.
显然,听到Elon谈论未来版本每年只需一次干预是令人兴奋的,但让我们先看看版本12.4.1广泛发布后用户的反馈。同时,我们还要注意,干预和脱离之间并没有明确的定义,因为这两者经常被混淆。比如我在使用FSD时,现在我每次驾驶时都会频繁踩加速踏板。按照Elon的定义,这算是干预吗?希望一些早期用户可以发布视频来测试12.4.1,我们其他人则等待轮到我们。 在X平台上回复Alex时,Elon提到,现有的Gigatexas工厂空间已经分配给了车辆电池和电池组的生产。这不是简单在角落放几台电脑的事。每个GPU需要一千瓦的电力和冷却,这意味着要有12兆瓦的电力和12兆瓦的冷却能力。南部扩展部分是专门为大功率计算和冷却而定制建造的。

The cooling towers are huge. The initial system is 50,000 H100s plus 20,000 Tesla hardware for AI computers and massive video storage. Important to note that FSD training requires massive liquid cooled Tesla AI compute and video storage, not just Nvidia. I think this is the first time we've heard of a specific number when it comes to Tesla's custom designed hardware for not just being used in their actual vehicle fleet, but in the training compute paired with Nvidia chips as well. It would be awesome to get a breakdown of the real world video training and simulation and the inference, aka how the cars actually talk to the training cluster, not just that, but validation as well. And ultimately how this different hardware is allocated for those different tasks.
冷却塔非常巨大。最初的系统包括5万个H100和2万个特斯拉硬件,用于AI计算机和大规模视频存储。需要强调的是,全自动驾驶(FSD)训练需要大量液冷的特斯拉AI计算和视频存储, 不仅仅是使用Nvidia的设备。我认为这是我们第一次听到关于特斯拉定制硬件的具体数量,不仅用于其实际车队中,还用于与Nvidia芯片配对的训练计算中。如果能详细解释一下现实世界的视频训练与模拟以及推断(也就是汽车如何与训练集群通信),不仅如此,还包括验证过程,以及不同硬件在这些任务中的分配方式,那就太棒了。

Germany's RBB 24 is saying that according to the federal prosecutor's office, investigations are still underway into the anti constitutional sabotage and joint arson that took place against Giga Berlin. They also said the police operation at the anti Tesla demonstrations in and around Grunheide in May was the largest in the history of the country to date, which is a good segue for Tesla only reporting 1.8 thousand sales in Germany in May down 64% compared to May last year. More importantly though, year to date Tesla sales in Germany are down 41% compared to last year. Looking at the bar charts from Roland, Tesla is now only slightly ahead of the pace they were on in 2022. And looking at the breakdown by month of the quarter, sure, Tesla may have a very strong third month of quarter too, but so far not looking great. Looking at overall B.E.V sales in Germany this year, every month they've been hovering right between 10 and 13%. That's compared to quarter four of last year when they were hovering between 15 and 25%. So you can definitely see the impact of them removing the E.V. subsidies. Honestly though, I think as bad as the anti-E.V. and anti-Tesla sentiment is here in America, it's even worse in Germany. I'm hearing the media propaganda is out of control over there, so if you're not the likes of Audi, BMW, Mercedes, you're fighting an uphill battle.
德国的RBB 24报道称,根据联邦检察官办公室的消息,对Giga Berlin(柏林超级工厂)遭遇的违宪破坏和联合纵火事件的调查仍在进行中。他们还表示,五月在格伦海德及周边地区举行的反特斯拉示威中,警方开展的行动是迄今为止该国历史上最大的一次。这也引出了另一个话题,那就是特斯拉五月在德国的销售量仅为1800辆,较去年五月下降了64%。更重要的是,今年截至目前特斯拉在德国的销量比去年同期下降了41%。 从Roland的柱状图来看,特斯拉今年的销量仅稍微领先于2022年的同期速度。而从季度按月的细分数据来看,尽管特斯拉可能会在本季度的第三个月迎来一个非常强劲的销售月,但目前情况并不乐观。看看今年德国整体纯电动车(B.E.V)的销售情况,每个月的销量占比都在10%到13%之间,相比去年第四季度的15%到25%,明显减少。这可以明显看出取消电动车补贴的影响。 坦白说,尽管美国的反电动车和反特斯拉情绪已经很严重,但在德国情况可能更糟。据说那里的媒体宣传已失控,如果你不是奥迪、宝马、奔驰这样的本土品牌,你就要面对一场艰难的战斗。

Zooming out though to all of Europe, Roland said Tesla achieved 119,000 sales in Europe through the first five months of the year. That's 13% lower than last year for the same time. Don't forget though, in just 63 days we're about to find out if Tesla will release a more affordable compact vehicle with a wheel and pedals. If so, the sales numbers will definitely change once that arrives, and in that case we just have to bridge the gap.

A Chinese source is reporting that BYD's subsidiary foodie, which in American is FinDreams, has reached a supply agreement with Tesla for its Shanghai energy storage factory in March this year. And we'll supply energy storage cells to Tesla in the first quarter of next year. For the Shanghai Megapack Factory CATL will be the first supplier and BYD's FinDreams will be the second. They're saying FinDreams supply share exceeds 20%, so with a 40 gigawatt hour facility, that would be about 8 gigawatt hours at full production at BYD is supplying. The annual order value for this deal is about $480 million. Just very rough math, that would work out to about $60 per kilowatt hour for these LFP cells. The source said Shanghai's Megapactory will mainly export units overseas, but they will also sell some in the Chinese market. Tesla's energy storage shipment market share last year was about 12% ranking first in the world. In second was Sun Grow at 10%, but as I've said before, this industry is not very transparent, so just be cautious with all of those numbers for the energy storage market.
据一家中国消息来源报道,比亚迪的子公司叫「客户悠享」,在美国称为FinDreams,今年3月与特斯拉达成了一项供货协议,为特斯拉的上海能源储存工厂供应储能电池。将于明年第一季度开始供货。针对上海的Megapack工厂,宁德时代 (CATL) 将是第一供应商,而比亚迪的FinDreams将是第二供应商。消息称FinDreams的供应份额超过20%,在一个40吉瓦时的设施中,这相当于比亚迪将提供约8吉瓦时的电池。该交易的年订单价值约为4.8亿美元。粗略计算,这些磷酸铁锂电池的价格大约是每千瓦时60美元。消息人士还表示,上海的Megapactory 主要将产品出口海外,但也会在中国市场销售一部分。去年特斯拉的能源储存出货量市场份额约为12%,位居全球第一。位居第二的是上能电气,份额为10%。但正如我之前提到的,这个行业的信息透明度并不高,所以对于这些关于能源储存市场的数据应该谨慎对待。

There's a chance Tesla gets a much better deal than $60 per kilowatt hour, one that was just rough math and you have exchange rates and everything else, but they said BYD gave Tesla the best price, which is close to the cost line. Just last week we had talked about how Chinese LFP cell prices were as low as they've ever been and Chinese battery makers charge higher prices for exported batteries, which is what Tesla's been doing for its Megapack Factory in Lathrop. Now they're actually going to be building these directly in China, avoiding all of those shipping costs. And not only that, but now Tesla is reportedly going to get these cells near cost from BYD, so the margin on these Megapacks because they'll be made and assembled in China and a majority will be exported to the European market where they can actually charge higher prices. I'm just speculating here, but we could be talking about Megapack margins from Shanghai easily north of 30%, not right out of the gate, but once some volume gets ramped up and the factor utilization reaches 30, 40, 50%, it's squarely in play.

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我之前告诉过大家,这个视频的赞助商AG1正酝酿一些新动作,现在我可以分享了。他们刚刚与独立科学家合作进行了三项研究,并将这些研究成果用于计划未来的研究。结果表明,97%的参与者在仅仅30天后感觉到有更多的能量。此外,91%的参与者在60天后注意到他们需要的咖啡变少了。正如我常说的,AG1具有极高的营养密度和质量控制,很难找到别的产品能与之相比。在6月,我将饮食窗口设定在下午2点到晚上10点,这个月我每天都会用富含蛋白质的餐和AG1来结束我的禁食。这些AG1研究评估了特定成分如何在一个配方中协同工作,研究表明,AG1有助于增加肠道中的健康细菌。这一点值得注意,因为健康细菌有助于分解食物和促进消化规律性。所以,如果你想亲自尝试AG1,你可以在 drinkag1.com/ electrified 获取五个旅行包和一年的维生素D3K2供应,链接在下面,也可以直接使用屏幕上的二维码。

I'd love to see more of a focus on rooftop solar in the United States and I think we need to look to Australia as they're setting the example. Australia leads the world in rooftop solar uptake with 3.7 million rooftops representing one third of Australian homes. Rooftop solar now outstrips the capacity being generated by large scale renewables with wind around 11.5 gigawatts and large scale solar about 9.2 gigawatts. The CEO of Smart Energy Council said even if coal fired power or deep nuclear power gets fed in at a marginal price of 0 cents, it can't compete with the electricity you make in a distributed form. When you hear distributed, just think at individuals' houses, there are no transmission costs whereas if you had a large scale solar array, that energy needs to actually be transported. Rooftop solar is now significantly cheaper than grid power. This is not driven by ideology or environmental concern, it's driven by economics.

We know that Elon is anti-vehicle to grid and vehicle to home, but how much of that is because he wants to make powerwall sales and how much of that is just not believing in the tech. Either way, listen to some of these stats, California's 1.5 million EVs can provide roughly three times as much energy as its utility scale batteries. Further, more than 90% of the 2,400 gigawatt hours of rechargeable batteries in use globally are in EVs according to the IEA. Of course, not all customers want to use their vehicles for the grid or even for their home, they'd be worried about battery degradation and having range when they need it. However, we're still pretty early in the overall EV transition and already these numbers are quite staggering, making you feel like it is a missed opportunity of sorts. It's true, there are hidden costs as many Tesla customers are finding out with the Cybertruck and PowerShare, but I think in time, those problems will be worked out. Other companies like GM and Ford are also working on this technology, so hopefully in the years ahead, they can continually make it better and it becomes much more prevalent than it is today.
我们知道,埃隆·马斯克反对车辆到电网(V2G)和车辆到家庭(V2H)的技术,但这到底有多少是因为他想推动Powerwall的销售,又有多少是因为他对该技术的不信任呢? 无论如何,听听以下这些统计数据:加利福尼亚州的150万辆电动汽车提供的能量大约是其公用事业规模电池的三倍。此外,根据国际能源署(IEA)的数据,全球使用的可充电电池中超过90%都在电动汽车中。当然,不是所有客户都愿意将他们的车辆用于电网甚至家庭,他们会担心电池衰减和需要时的行驶里程。然而,我们仍然处于整体电动汽车转型的早期阶段,这些数字已经非常惊人,让人感觉这是一种错失的机会。确实,如同许多特斯拉客户在使用Cybertruck和PowerShare时发现的那样,这种技术存在一些隐藏成本,但我认为这些问题最终会得到解决。其他像通用汽车和福特这样的公司也在研究这种技术,所以希望在未来的几年里,他们能不断改进,使其变得比现在更普及。

On X, Cathie Wood was upset about some of the 2024 ESG scores where we have Tesla scoring a 40 and Philip Morris scoring an 85 where higher is better. As I've said many times in the past, I with many others think these scores overall are a joke, but people often forget the G is for governance, so if there was a way for Tesla to score low on that, you could at least make an argument. Again, not that I would make it or not that I would agree with it, but others are out there making it. It's the whole Tesla's board is not independent argument, but if you actually go to the scores from the Forbes 2024 net zero list leaders, Philip Morris was indeed ranked number one, but Tesla this year was number three. That's a huge jump for Tesla because just last year, Tesla was ranked number 71 on that list.
在X平台上,Cathie Wood对2024年的一些ESG评分感到不满,比如特斯拉得了40分,而菲利普·莫里斯得了85分,分数越高越好。正如我过去多次所说的那样,我和许多其他人认为这些评分总体上很荒谬,但人们往往忘记了G代表的是治理(governance)。所以如果有理由让特斯拉在这方面得低分,至少可以进行辩解。再强调一下,这不是我会这样做,也不是我会同意这么做,而是有其他人这样做。他们的论点是特斯拉的董事会不独立。不过,如果你查看《福布斯》2024年净零排放榜单的领导者评分,菲利普·莫里斯确实是排名第一,但特斯拉今年排在第三位。对于特斯拉来说,这可是一个巨大的进步,因为就在去年,特斯拉在那份榜单上还排在第71位。

Brett Wynton from Arc was making some jabs at Philip Morris saying, makes sense, killing your customers is a very cost efficient way to reduce emissions. Shots fired from Arc, but the truth is more people in the industry are slowly waking up to these ESG scores actually being a scam. AP ran a new poll in April of this year talking about EVs, but we actually got some comments from real people. Of the roughly 6,200 people surveyed, 46% said they are not too likely or not at all likely to buy an EV with their next purchase. One person said, while Cincinnati winters aren't extremely cold, the thought of getting stuck in the driveway with an EV that won't run is worrisome. And I know it would not be an issue with a plug in hybrid. Come on, Caleb, it's not going to be a problem with a full EV either. One more to give your eyes a workout. A lady from Florida said EVs don't make any environmental sense citing precious metals that must be mined to make batteries including in some countries that rely on child labor or other unsafe conditions.
Brett Wynton 来自 Arc,他对 Philip Morris (菲利普莫里斯) 挖苦道:消灭你的客户确实是减少排放的非常经济有效的方法。尽管 Arc 发了挑衅,但实际上,越来越多业内人士逐渐意识到,这些 ESG 评分实际上是个骗局。今年四月,AP 发布了一项关于电动汽车的新民意调查,我们还获取了一些真实的用户评论。在约6200名受访者中,有46%表示他们不太可能或根本不打算在下一次购车时购买电动汽车。一位受访者表示,尽管辛辛那提的冬天并不算特别冷,但想到电动汽车可能会在车道上抛锚的情景还是令人担忧。而且我知道,如果是插电混合动力车,这个问题就不存在了。拜托,Caleb,全电动汽车也不会有这个问题。还有一条令人眼睛一亮的评论。一位来自佛罗里达的女士表示,电动汽车在环保方面并没有意义,因为制造电池所需的稀有金属需要依靠开采,而一些国家的小孩或其他不安全的条件下进行生产。

Here are just a few quick clips from Ron Barron on CNBC this morning. I think in the next 10 years we're probably going to make four or five times our money again in Tesla. So he's created tremendous wealth for people and he was paid if his contract is enforced, which I think it should be. He's paid $56 billion. So it's like winning the lottery, you know, if you and Joe was talking about the before you win the lottery, you don't tell someone, oh, sorry, you won so much money, you have to get a guy. What would you tell a new shareholder, who maybe wasn't there in 2018, how they should think about this? Well, you're buying in right now at half the price it was three years ago. And in part, that's because of this controversy over this contract. So this is actually in your favor. And if he weren't to devote himself the way I believe he will devote himself to the company continuing, then you would be damaged as a new shareholder. You're buying into a company where you have one of the most exceptional, maybe the most exceptional, you know, executive in this country in the world, are running your business. Do you really want to not treat him properly? To show you how desirable it is to work there. Last year, Tesla had 12,000 new hires. And 12,000 new hires, they had 6 million applicants, 6 million applicants for 12,000 jobs.
这里是今天早上Ron Barron在CNBC上的一些讲话片段。我认为在未来10年内,我们在Tesla上的投资可能会增值四到五倍。他为很多人创造了巨大的财富,而他的合同如果被执行(我认为应该执行),他将获得560亿美元的报酬。这就像中了彩票,你知道的,在你赢得彩票之前,你不会告诉别人"哦,对不起,你赢了这么多钱,你需要找个人来处理这些钱。"如果有新的股东在2018年之后才加入,你会怎么建议他们看待这个问题呢?现在以三年前一半的价格买入部分原因为这份合同的争议。所以这实际上对你有利。如果他不像我所相信的那样继续全身心投入公司运营,那么你作为新股东将会受损害。而你正在投资一家由这个国家甚至是全球最杰出的执行官之一领导的公司。你真的不想好好对待他吗?为了让你了解在这家公司工作有多么受欢迎。去年,Tesla有12,000个新聘职位,但却收到了600万份申请,每12,000个职位就有600万份申请。

And so think about that. The reason they have it is not because the name Tesla, not because of cars, because of him. And so think about his ability to track these great people to come to this business, to grow it and run it and make changes that are benefiting the entire planet. And you want to renege on a contract, then a deal you made with him? Yeah, let me ask, you know, Tesla shareholders should have a stake in XAI too. They're going to be using the services. And then the XAI is going to be getting benefit, presume of some sort, for selling the services back to Tesla. But Tesla doesn't, Tesla's avoiding costs that they would otherwise have to invest in chips, to invest in these data centers. These data centers are three or five billion dollars now. They used to be 300 million. The biggest investment we have right now is in Tesla. Yeah, but your new money is going to his newer venture. If I had a chance to buy more stock in Tesla right now, I'd buy more stock in Tesla. Well, you can't like why why why? Well, because I have limits as far as how much percentages I'm allowed to buy. On X Tesla posted congrats 4680 sale manufacturing team on building their 50 millionth battery cell at Giga, Texas. It was just over one year ago that Tesla said they produced their 10 millionth 4680 sale at Giga, Texas that week.

I know it's not linear production, but if you take 40 million sales divided by about 12 months, that's about 3.3 million sales being built per month. Then if you divide that by the number of 4680 sales in each Cybertruck battery pack, that's a 4680 production rate over the past year of about 2,500 Cybertrucks each month. Tesla said they built their 20 millionth 4680 in October of last year. So if you take those 30 million sales built between now and then and divide that by eight months, that would be about 3.8 million sales per month. Again, dividing that by 1344 4680s per Cybertruck pack, about 2.8 thousand Cybertrucks per month. And for Tesla to go from 10 million produced to 20 million produced, that was 4 months. And now for Tesla to go from 20 million to 50 million, that was 8 months. So last year it took Tesla 4 months between June and October to build 10 million sales.

So obviously if you kept that pace steady and made the timeline 8 months, that would be building 20 million sales. But in actuality from October of last year to June of this year, Tesla built 30 million sales over 8 months. The rate is certainly increasing, although it's probably not the exponential growth that many had been hoping for. It turns out Elon will be building XAI's 100,000 H100 supercomputer in Memphis. For those familiar with Tennessee, it'll be in southwest Memphis near the Mississippi River at the old Electrolux building. Earlier this month, Elon said this cluster should be online in a few months. This deal represents the largest investment by dollar amount in Memphis history. The real question becomes when will Grock be available in Tesla vehicles.

Tesla stock closed the day at $175 flat, up 0.13%, while the NASDAQ was up 1.96%. It was another low volume day for Tesla as the market awaits the annual meeting, trading about 30 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Nvidia just crossed over the $3 trillion market cap and surpassed Apple as the second biggest company in the world by market cap. Don't forget, check out AG1 links below if you're interested. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X links below. And a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.