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Why The Car Biz is Starting to Look Like 2008 | Car Dealership Guy Market Update

发布时间 2024-05-30 17:00:26    来源


Welcome to the third episode of The Car Dealership Guy Market Update—Brought to you by Edmunds. This segment is a monthly ...



We were just looking at a stat that shows that we've sold as many sub $20,000 cars this year as we did in 2023 already. Welcome to the car dealership Guy Market Update, a monthly discussion with automotive industry experts and dealers about where our car market is today and where it may be headed. Today, I'm speaking with Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmonds and Zack Kinch, general manager of Rormand Toyota. Don't forget to click subscribe so you never miss an episode.

But before we get into the show, the car dealership Guy Market Update is brought to you by Edmonds. In today's automotive landscape, car buyers invest more time than ever in researching, considering and comparing options. But for dealers, the challenge lies in pinpointing the audience ready to make a purchase. Enter Premier by Edmonds. Premier offers dealers a groundbreaking way to connect with in-market car shoppers precisely when, where and how they prefer. With over 20 million monthly visits, Edmonds.com is the go-to destination for buyers seeking market insights, expert advice and budget tools to make informed decisions.

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这些购物者不仅信息丰富,而且对他们想要的确切车型有着极高的专注度。现在是你与他们建立联系的机会。通过Edmonds Premier,车商可以接触到这个备受追捧的群体。只需在Edmonds网站上列出你的新车和二手车库存,就能看到合格的潜在客户直接访问你网站上的车辆详细页面。不要错过提升你车行知名度和销售表现的机会。你可以今天就登录Edmonds.com/cdg注册Premier服务。

And here's a special offer only for CDG listeners, new customers signing up through Edmonds.com slash CDG will receive an exclusive 50% off pricing for the first 90 days. Again, visit edmunds.com slash CDG or click the link in the show notes below. All right, we're back. Episode three of the Cardio Shagai market update. As usual, I'm co-hosted here with Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmonds. Today, we also have Zach Kinch from Bob Rorman-Tioda. Zach, welcome. Thank you guys. Thanks for having me.
为了CDG的听众提供一个特别优惠,新客户通过edmunds.com/cdg注册,可以在前三个月享受50%的独家折扣。再次提醒,访问edmunds.com/cdg,或者点击下方的节目说明中的链接。 好了,我们回到节目。这里是第三集的《Cardio Shagai市场更新》。按照惯例,我和Edmunds的洞察部主管Jessica Caldwell共同主持。今天我们还邀请到了Bob Rorman Toyota的Zach Kinch。Zach,欢迎你。谢谢大家,谢谢你们的邀请。

Zach, particularly excited to have you on because you are very active and social. I did a little, I did it. I went down the rabbit hole actually right before the pilot and I've known, I've known you're active because you're in the process of doing an active activity. Engagement with Russ and other automotive influencer that we're working with. But you have really, really taken it up a notch on social. Would love to dive into that. And if you could tell us a bit why you even got started with that. In addition to that, you also have a podcast now, which you started telling me about before we press record, which I wouldn't know about that as well. So kick us off with that, right? Why are you getting into the podcast world? Why is a GM at a Toyota dealership getting the content? What's going on?

Yeah. I think so. So I've been 10 years at this store. So starting to get to the point where I feel like I know where operation should be the direction where we need to be going. So it's kind of that outlook. How do we grow the business in a different way? And since I've come to the Rorman organization, the mindset's always been doing the car business different. And I feel like right now with where the market's at and where industry is and where people are, the opportunity of social media and it's pushing the envelope and doing things that maybe I'm not so comfortable with and trying different aspects to find the new talent, the new customer. How quickly they want to have data and access. And for us, there are market regulations of things we can't share, things that we are limited to give access to. So social media is a way for us to kind of work around that. So it's been a really cool experiment. We're learning. And again, the part that's fun about it is the connections we're making just like this.

Yeah, Jessica, you have you shared with me prior to this podcast survey that Edmunds conducted, which we'll dig into at the end of the podcast. But what I thought was interesting in the survey, I'll give a little teaser here, is just the amount that social media influences purchasing decisions nowadays. When it comes to people buying cars and it's pretty remarkable how people, you know, they use many different just of course automotive listing sites, comparison websites, but social media is really crop top. So I think you're making a smart move. I would tell you that my prediction is that first of all, I think that the podcasting game, not to get too niche here into the media space, but I think this is very relevant, but I think that the podcast arena in general, the whole podcast game is going to continue to fill up with more niche type of shows and content for specific markets, very specific audiences.

And I think that you're actually very early in the dealership space. I think that we're going to see a trend over the next couple of years of a lot of more dealers doing what you're doing. And I think from my perspective, right, knowing nothing about your goals of your podcast, which I want you to tell us about next, but I think that it is going to be a really great way for dealerships within their communities to talk about what they do or bring transparency to the actual experience at their dealership and get the get the audience, get the, you know, the potential customers, the community comfortable with that dealership.

Someone told me a line recently that I love, which is what's a podcast? It's trust at scale, right? You get to eavesdrop on a conversation, just like we're about to do right now of three people at a coffee shop, which we're not, but you know, let's pretend we are. And it's pretty remarkable. It's, you know, it's really you're able to build that connection and get inside someone's head. So before we move on, with that said, I do want to know what is your, what is your goal with the podcast? Like why, why are you even doing this? Yeah.

So we started down the path of a learning management system really was the beginning point of how do we get all the employees to see the similar messaging? You know, our auto group is 22 locations. So across three different states. So how can we share that information? How can we make sure that we're educating on boarding? So we started on the LMS side and then it opened the windows to social media and connections and we jumped on the early adapter side of Tekkion and the DMS. And it's been just kind of a unique opportunity for us to look at a way to do the automotive business differently.

Again, I've came straight to this Toyota store 10 years ago right out of college, college grad looking for something and the idea of being a different dealership that wasn't going to do business traditionally is what excited me. And that's where I think the podcast, the goal is for us is really try to focus on our mission statement, which is driving relationships through awesome experiences.

And we think that having the opportunity to bring in people like said from Tekkion through our dealership guy, through Edmunds, the networks of people will meet to be able to share with our customers, consumers, our even staff and let them know what the transparency looks like of what we're doing and why we're making the decisions we are making. So it's been great. So far, we're running through the test episodes, pilots and it's amazing already to see the number of guests that has lined up to raise their hand and ask to be on it. And we haven't done any advertising behind it yet. So it's almost become addicting too to sense.

I know I hear that. So I'm looking forward to seeing your progress. And it's a it's exciting move. So to congrats on that and I'm sure going to kill it. All right. No shortage of content to cover today from pricing affordability. I've had my my fair share of internet highlighting all these tariffs and whatnot. So I've done a little bit of that, but we're going to we're going to touch on that.

Zach, we're going to get a little bit into what it's like operating in your store nowadays, how you're managing through all the topics I just mentioned, plus pricing, retaining the demand, of course, you're at the store. So you have it you have it pretty good in this card market, but we want to hear the good and the bad before we get to that, Jessica, I want to turn it over to you.

If you can kick us off with a market update of what is happening right now in our market. Yeah, I mean, I'd say that the key to everything right now, what we're seeing out there is really just affordability. We're seeing incentives creep back on the new vehicle side that has been a desert through the microchip shortage, but that is coming back more and more. I mean, it is spotty. It's not across the brand, Zach. You're probably not running blockbuster deals over at your shop, but some of your colleagues may and we are starting to see prices. You know, maybe go down a little bit in aggregate on the new vehicle side as incentives creep up days to turn though, how long they're sitting on dealership lots that is getting longer. So that means consumers are still struggling to grapple with not only the prices that the interest rates and the monthly payment, everything that goes along with that. And what we are seeing is that because of the incentives coming back, we are seeing downward pressure on use vehicle prices as use vehicle prices are starting to drop, but days to turn is actually shorter. So that means we're seeing increased demand on the use vehicle side as people just struggle with the affordability question, just trying to get a vehicle that fits in their monthly budget because although we all love the shiny new cars, the reality is, especially in this world of interest rates, it's hard to to afford them.
如果你能帮我们启动一下最新的市场更新,告诉我们现在市场上的情况。那么,我想说,目前的关键问题实际上就是可负担性。我们看到由于微芯片短缺而一度消失的购车激励措施在新车市场上又开始慢慢出现了。虽然还不普遍,不是所有品牌都有,但你可能不会在你的店面推出重磅优惠,但你的一些同行可能会这样做。我们开始看到新车价格在整体上有所下降,因为刺激措施的增加。与此同时,新车在经销商库存中的时间变长了,这意味着消费者仍在努力应对不仅是高价格,还有利率和每月还款等相关问题。 同时,由于新车激励措施的回归,我们看到二手车价格承受着下降的压力,但二手车的销售速度实际上加快了。这意味着二手车市场需求增加,因为人们在努力解决可负担性问题,只想要一辆能够符合他们每月预算的车辆。尽管我们都喜欢闪亮的新车,但现实是,尤其在现在这个高利率的环境中,买得起它们非常困难。

So, you know, any dealer out there that is running specials on a PR, I think that that's going to hit a good audience because I think consumers are there. They want to hear those messages right now because I feel like at some point in the auto market, 0% for 60 was just falling on deaf ears. It was so abundant. People didn't care. You know, credit was cheap, but now, all of a sudden it's a different ball game. And I think that, you know, you start running these type of this type of information out there, you'll probably get a much better result than you had in the past. Jessica, it's funny you say that because you're right that I've been posting on my consumer heavy channels, some 0% deals. I used to post a bunch of different things like discounts, da da da da, like all these different formats, but I stuck to 0% deals because you're point, it's really been resonating more than you know, you can frame a discount in many different ways. We all know that, but 0% specifically has been resonating. And to your point, it's like it almost it almost feels novel again from the consumers when when I'm posting that.
所以,你知道,任何在做促销的经销商,我认为这会吸引不少观众,因为消费者现在正需要听到这些信息。我觉得在一段时间里,汽车市场上的"60个月0利息"对人们来说已经听不进去,太普遍了,大家都不在乎,信用贷款成本也低。但现在情况完全不同了。我认为,如果你现在开始发布这样的消息,可能会比以往得到更好的反响。 杰西卡,你说得很有意思,因为你说得对,我最近在我的消费者渠道上发布了一些0利率的优惠。我以前发布过各种各样的折扣信息,比如打折等等,但现在我只发布0利率的优惠。正如你所说的,这种信息的确更加引起消费者的共鸣。我们都知道,折扣可以用很多不同的方式呈现,但0利率这种特定的信息现在特别吸引人。就像你说的,消费者看到这些信息的时候,几乎觉得又新奇了一次。

Zach, I see you smiling. Have you experienced something similar? Yeah, I mean, just the the rarity of 0%. You know, when I started in the business, it was everything was 0% for 72 or 0.9 for 72. And you would even see some of the struggling franchises that would throw out zero for 81 months and even flirt with 84. And now to here zero for 60, it's like the mad dash at Black Friday at the Walmart to get your kids toy. And it is kind of that that unicorn now in the industry. Yeah, it's been it's been resonating really well. I'm curious to know, Jessica, that said, what are you seeing? What are consumers buying right now? What are they not buying? What do you think? Where are the big trends? Well, I mean, I think that it's going to look different by brand, obviously. And what they are looking for is if you still look at, you know, people are thinking, well, SUVs are too expensive, but SUV market share still goes up because it goes everything from something that's subcompact all the way up to an escalate. So SUV is just such a wide category nowadays and people think, oh, prices, the way there are people are buying those. No, they still they still are, but maybe not as you know, as big as expensive because I think, you know, what we saw when interest rates were lower and especially when the pandemic started as well and we saw like 0% for like 84 months, people just bought big vehicles and they bought all the bells and whistles and they were finally able to get what they want.
扎克,我看到你在微笑。你有过类似的经历吗? 是的,我的意思是,0%融资的稀有性。你知道吗,当我刚开始进入这个行业时,一切都是72个月的0%利率或0.9%利率。你甚至还能看到一些挣扎中的品牌抛出81个月甚至接近84个月的0%。而现在,60个月的0%利率,就像黑色星期五在沃尔玛抢孩子玩具的疯狂场面。这种情况在行业中就像独角兽一样稀有。是的,这种情况引起了很大的共鸣。我很想知道,杰西卡,你怎么看?现在消费者在买什么?不买什么?你怎么看大的趋势在哪里? 嗯,我的意思是,这显然会因品牌而有所不同。他们在寻找什么呢?如果你还在关注,大家会认为SUV太贵了,但SUV的市场份额仍在上升,因为从超小型到大型SUV种类繁多。如今,SUV是一个非常广泛的类别,人们认为,哦,价格那么高,大家还在买吗?依然在买,只不过可能不像以前那样购买昂贵的大车型。我认为,当利率较低时,特别是疫情开始时,我们看到了84个月的0%利率,人们买了大车,买了所有的豪华配置,终于能得到他们想要的东西。

And we're seeing a bit of a reversal of that now. And even if you look at pickup truck market share in the first quarter, it's down. It's starting to look a bit like it did in the recession where there was that move towards, you know, cheaper vehicles, even though we, you know, it's not what we want, we want something that is big and heavily contented. But the reality is that's what people are buying. So if you kind of see the way the market share is looking at it is a little reminiscent of what we saw back in 2008, 2009, which was also, I think, met with a gas price spike, which we saw in 2008. So that also kind of put more pressure on pickup trucks. But now I think we're seeing the whole interest rate market pressure on that. So I'd say what people are, you know, are buying may not be exactly what they want.

And I think that's an interesting dynamic if we think about what the market will look like in a few years because we did see post recession, purchase regret and people just trading in vehicles because it was like, this is not working for me. I don't know why I bought this because I got afforded, but it's not really what I wanted necessarily. Interesting. And how do you how do you measure that? Like how do I didn't actually didn't know about that? But how do you know that like post recession, when you say purchase regret, like, how did that actually get quantified or manifest in some data or statistics?

Yeah. I mean, you'll look at how quickly the vehicles traded in and then also what is trade like if you see somebody trading in a like, for instance, like a Honda Fit and then they went and they bought Ford Explorer. It was like and then they only owned the Honda Fit. You could see for a year or two. So I think it kind of gives the hint to like they bought that because they saw gas prices were north of $4, which maybe doesn't seem that bad now, but back then it did. And it wasn't the vehicle for them and that, you know, it's kind of can come see it through through those ways.

Yeah. Yeah, it sounds kind of like me. We had a SUV, then the third kid came and we're like, we're out. We're going to the minivan. So we made a switch. Yeah. And I think those, I think that's a different buyer. It's like there's the people that have to make those decisions and I feel like that is so classic of like now we actually need a third role. We have to buy it. It doesn't actually matter what's happening in the market because, you know, the kid is coming and whether we have the right car or not. So it's got to happen.

Yeah, we ordered it from pretty far away. So so Zach talked us a little bit about par language. Jessica just said to like in store to the micro. You know, I love the the juicy in store, anecdotes and data. What are you seeing in store from buying trends and pricing trends?

For sure. Well, Jessica just shared it so real and so it's so difficult for us to manage in a day. I mean, we're coming out of three years of lease rates and terms that were phenomenal that anyone could buy it below market value because it was just that opportunity why no one was buying cars in the world. Nobody knew how to make a decision of what was going to be next. So the cars were essentially being given away. And us as dealers all felt like we were the Greek gods of car sales because anything on our lot we could sell because it was so easy.

And now they're returning with a three year lease that's ended and their payments are going up two to three hundred dollars in that culture shock moments there and you do have the other dealers on the other side that two years ago selected what was only left on the inventory and I came in for a high lander and I had a select a corolla because I only had that choice available. And I just got in the total loss accident and I need a car now.
他们现在回来,三年的租赁期已经结束,付款要上涨两三百美元,这让他们感到震惊。其他经销商也面临类似情况,两年前只能选择库存剩余的车辆。我本来想买一辆Highlander (丰田汉兰达),但最后只能选了一辆Corolla (丰田卡罗拉),因为只有这个选择。现在我出了全损事故,我急需一辆车。

So it's such a resonating statement to say that consumers are coming in today. Maybe even unaware of what the availability is in the marketplace, but also some of them are behind the eight ball because of the decision they were forced to make two years, three years ago. It's been a very unique scenario for my staff to hire in during this time period and have to learn not necessarily how to sell a car but how to emotionally handle a conversation around payment shock and what a difference it's been from three years ago where it was this is your car. You're buying it because it's the only one I'm not.

And if you don't want it, there's three people in the showroom that are going to take it to I'm so sorry that this is the situation you're in. Let us work with you the best we can to figure out how we can manage your budget. So very different dynamic in the last 24 months, 36 months. I mean, the number of people that I've spoken to that are like I'm returning my lease. I just want the same thing again and they're like and now it is three hundred dollars more and they're they've come to me like, is this right?

Like if someone's trying to take advantage of me, they think there's some sort of conspiracy out there and like I get it because it doesn't, you know, it's like, this is the same vehicle. It is just three years later. And if you are a serial leaser, like you kind of know what how the system has worked for, you know, X amount of times. And I think that's shock. And I think managing that customer emotion, I bet that's tricky. Yeah, my brother's in that scenario. He's a downtown Chicago resident, lease is a vehicle and he's had it for three years. He's extended the two additional six month periods at Toyota allows. And at Mother's Day, he said, hey, in two months, I got to come buy a car for me. And I was like, man, you are in so much trouble because being a downtown Chicago resident, I'm sure he's got dense. I'm sure he's got dings. And then he said he only had nine thousand miles on a almost four year lease now that you know, should have equity in it. And it probably will have some, but as far as what he's done in this, his payments are not going to be anywhere relative to where he thinks he's walking into it. So just kind of that shock factor that I'm sure once again, a little brother will have to have that conversation. Bzak, I'm curious. How are you? What's how are you handling that meaning? Are you offering a cheaper vehicle? Are you offering a cheaper financial instrument? I mean, you know, like financing versus leasing as an example. All of the above, I mean, what's the what's the outlet here?

Like if I'm following trends, what are you? What's rising? You know, leasing for us in the toilet world is not rising. It is completely diminished to almost zero. I mean, we were about a 35% capture, 40% capture rate on lease before all this shift. And I think we're down to like the 12, 11%. And those are the only people that are looking for the tax incentives of leasing and depreciation. I mean, a normal consumer can't justify the lease payment. And I understand that from Toyota Sense as well. What's the interest rate for just doing market business and to get a competitive lease rate? It's not really that competitive anymore with what the standard rate from whoever toward a financial through JP Morgan Chase, whoever it may be, as cost of doing business. So we've seen, believe it or not, this is a part of the car business that sometimes is hard to understand. We've seen just the rise in actual payment acceptance where three, fifty four hundred, maybe five hundred was OK to now six, seven, eight hundred. And that's been a shift in us for training and development to get our sales staff around being comfortable presenting a seven hundred dollar car payment for 60 months on a, you know, $30,000 asset because of interest rates.

So it's definitely hurt market total sales volume. But then we've also seen that kind of translate into the service side of consumers keeping vehicles longer historically than ever. And obviously the increase we've seen in fixed operations. Zach, talk to us about what vehicles you are discounting. Right. We know that this Toyota specifically on the new side, I mean, phenomenal demand, lowest market day supply in the market today. What are you discounting across your, you know, your inventory today? And how is that playing out for you? Yeah, for sure. So Toyota, as far as what we see here right now is, you know, your internal combustion engine, your ice engines, those are still showing discounts pretty much across all makes and models. There's a few that are being released as such as the grand highlander that you're still seeing some that aren't having the significant amount of discounting. But because Toyota has incentivized so much for the market day supply push, it's really about how quick we're getting right at this inventory and what's available on lot to sold time frame.
这无疑影响了市场的总销售量。但我们也看到,这种情况也促使消费者在服务方面的花费增加了,他们现在持有车辆的时间比以往更长。显然,我们也看到了售后服务业务的增长。扎克,告诉我们你们在折扣哪些车辆。对了,我们知道丰田的新车,特别是其中一些车型,需求非常大,市场存货量是目前市场上最低的。你今天的库存里有哪些车在折扣呢?这个对你的生意有什么影响? 是的,确实如此。就目前情况来看,我们看到的丰田车辆主要是内燃机车型,这些车型基本上都在打折。虽然有些新发布的车型,比如Grand Highlander,折扣并不大。但由于丰田在促销库存上提供了很大的激励,关键在于我们能多快把这些库存销售出去,以及从到货到售出的时间。

So the main focal point for us is kind of working a matrix or an algorithm that works off VDPs, the back end as far as us looking at explain that to us by the can you just define that EDPs and what that means? Yep. So we're talking like vehicle display pages where someone goes in and they're actually searching a specific vehicle into a specific inventory piece on your lot. So not just going to Edmonds and looking through all the vehicles and just scrolling up and down, but selecting a specific model, getting that data analytics on our side showing somebody's actually searched that vehicle, opened it, displayed.

And then for us, we're looking at how quick that vehicle is being marketed. So if we can get that thing online within 24 hours, what's the VDP rate and we're checking that weekly, monthly hourly so that we can truly use data analytics to justify our price points? We're not by any means using book values on new cars. We're not by any means using our gut feeling on what cars should be discounted. This is all live data market across the board to try to have a competitive advantage because we still feel like the marketplace isn't necessarily all there in automotive industry.

What do you mean by that? The marketplace is not all there. I just still feel like the dealership world as a whole is still going with their gut feeling and these cars don't sell well for us instead of looking at what is consumer reporting show, what is in your primary marketing area, who's driving what size vehicle are they driving, what are they buying, what colors? Instead of just saying we need another camera on our lot, what color camera do we need, what trim model, what accessory packages do we need?

And then with that, which accessory packages do they buy at a higher price point than what they buy at a lower price point? So trying to use true data versus 40 years of experience and saying this is what we sell in this market and allowing actual facts to tell us what actually sells. And how's that been for you with your team? Like how have you really adopted that mindset? I'd have to imagine not ever or you've hired some people that maybe been in the business before.

That's pretty, you know, to your point, there's a lot of gut and I would, I would there's a lot of people making decisions off God, which got gut gut is important. There's a reason, you know, we have these instincts. It's it's great when you combine it with data. How have you actually implemented this stuff? Like what you're saying sounds really great. How are you really doing this in practice and making it work better?

Yeah. So to answer your first question, how's it gone over? You ever drive on a road where you don't know there's a road bump or a speed bump coming and you hit it going a little too fast. That's how it's basically gone over in the dealership. But it's about how many times we consistently go back and show the facts and show the information that we can find. And then how does that affect individuals, you know, production?

How does that as a sales metric? How do we sell more cars faster? How do we make the job easier? How do we have more customers scheduled to come in? So we're using that all through the data analytics. So a lot of things like Vista Dash has been a huge partner of ours to draw more information faster, obviously Google Analytics. And the G4 stuff that we've seen come out has helped us as well.
作为一个销售指标,这样如何?我们如何更快地卖出更多的车?我们如何让工作变得更简单?我们如何安排更多的顾客进店?为此,我们一直在使用数据分析。例如,Vista Dash 是我们的重要合作伙伴,帮助我们更快地获取信息,当然还有 Google Analytics。最新的 G4 功能也对我们有所帮助。

But then our partnership with Tekkion has been a big one through DMS data trying to find a one silo platform to where we can actually evaluate that data. And means what we love with them is that they're showing market data back to what's our most predominant source, which is dealership website. So anyway, that we can actually use a dealership website, not as the landing page, but as an actual tool and play offense versus just the defense of showing your information, like what time do you open? What time do you close? That's kind of what we've loved and finding partners out there that can you know, marry with us to find the ways to do business better and not just get another customer to our store.

And I want to dig in one more point that you mentioned before this last question I asked you, which is Toyota's incentives. You said that Toyota is incentivizing you for they supply. Can you tell us a little bit more about that? What are the incentives behind the scenes that Toyota is trying to drive through their dealerships? Yeah. So really the incentives is just vehicle allocation. It's not discounts. It's not pricing. It's not anything right now.

The game, the name of the game with Toyota's market growth. And then grabbing a larger market share than ever before is truly about getting more allocation and inventory to your lot. So the faster you turn, the more vehicles they allocate directly to you out of your district, out of your region where I'm located is the Chicago region. So how it breaks down is let's say there's 3,500 vehicles coming to this region this month, depending on your success. It's going to be depending on what you receive an inventory.

So the difference between receiving 35 vehicles on an allocation versus receiving 43 is truly as minicule as eight car sounds is truly a difference between me being able to serve eight customers this month and me being able to serve eight customers in another 45, 60, 90 days. So it adds up very quickly and then centers of how fast can we get rid of these cars, which has also led to the success Toyota has seen in market share. Yeah, Jessica, we were chatting, I think one or two episodes ago about Toyota actually losing market share heavily driven by the fact that they haven't had enough supply over the last couple of years. So interesting just to hear you talk about this, Zach, I do want to turn it back to you, Jessica, Edmonds recently put out a new analysis about car shoppers coming back into the market.
这是原文的中文翻译,尽量易读: 所以,收到35辆车的配额和收到43辆车的区别,其实微不足道。8辆车的差别实际上是我能在这个月服务8位客户,还是我能在接下来45、60、90天内服务这8位客户的区别。这种差别很快就会积累起来,并决定我们能多快卖掉这些车,这也是丰田在市场份额上取得成功的一个原因。是的,Jessica,我们在一两期之前的节目里聊天时谈到,丰田实际上因为过去几年供应不足而严重失去市场份额。所以听你这么说很有趣,Zach。我想把话题转回到你这里,Jessica,Edmonds最近发布了一份关于购车者重返市场的新分析。

Can you explain this to us a little bit about this analysis? Why specifically now is this price driven or what's happening in the marketplace that is leading car buyers to come back in? Yeah, I mean, so always looking to see like what's new out there because it feels like a lot of times in the marketplace, things don't necessarily change that much. The past few years, I'd say, are an exception. But the one thing we did notice this year in the in the first quarter was that the average age of trade ins was going up and it is both for people trading and for new vehicles and also people trading in for for used vehicles.
你能不能向我们解释一下这个分析?为什么这种情况现在特别显著,是价格驱动的吗?市场上发生了什么让购车者又开始回来买车了呢? 嗯,我的意思是,我们总是在观察市场上有什么新变化,因为感觉很多时候市场变化不大。过去几年来说是个例外。但我们注意到今年第一季度的一个变化,就是车辆置换的平均车龄在上升。这不仅包括置换新车的人,也包括置换二手车的人。

And what it really looks like is that, you know, we've been talking about this pent-up demand, people have sitting out the past few years kind of waiting for the market to normalize a bit. Well, they probably have gotten to a point where they just can't wait any longer. You know, Zach had just mentioned about people going and getting the vehicle service, getting the vehicle repaired because they've been holding on to it for a long time and it feels like those folks are now coming back more into, you know, to dealerships to buy vehicles.

So that is a shift and you're going to see people coming in with older vehicles, which I think helps the fact that we could have some use inventory that is older because we do know that, you know, maybe not super, super old inventory, but older inventory means that it's cheaper. They usually sell quicker because there's so much demand, especially in this age of high prices, high interest rates. That definitely will be a change. But also these people are kind of coming into a market that they haven't been into for a while. So I think that goes to the emotional coaching that Zach was saying because they're going to probably have a bit of a shock.

I mean, the fact that they have sat out knows that they are probably cognizant of what's been going on, you know, in the marketplace in terms of inventory shortage and interest rates, but I still think that they, you know, set in the F and I office at the end of the day, they're going to be, you know, if you haven't bought a car in seven, nine years, you're, you know, you're walking into a bit of a, you know, a different game. So I think that's something that dealers can can prepare for is these customers coming back that have been out for a while.

Zach, are you seeing that on your end with people coming back into the market and, you know, any specific trends there? Yeah, when Jessica shared it, I had to laugh to myself because we were just looking at a stat that shows that we've sold as many sub $20,000 cars this year as we did in 2023 already. So to the point that consumers are keeping them longer, it also offsets the side of that new car market still not being a hundred percent there where they can afford or the shock to making that same agreement to go maybe to a lesser vehicle that's better than what they have, but maybe not exactly what they want.
扎克,你那边有没有看到,随着人们重返市场,有没有什么具体趋势? 嗯,当杰西卡分享这个信息时,我忍不住笑了,因为我们刚刚看到一项统计数据显示,今年我们已经卖出了和 2023 年一样多的2万美元以下的汽车。因此,消费者持有汽车时间更长,这也抵消了新车市场还没完全恢复的情况,消费者可能会选择稍微便宜一点但比他们现有车好的汽车,而不是他们真正想要的那种车。

So it's been a definitely interesting shift in the marketplace for us. Yeah, you know, I just had another use car dealer on the podcast and he was talking about just the rise of their value lot, right? So the value lot, the classic, like let's put all the, you know, the hooptees and another lot and retail them instead of wholesaling them because there is a market for there, but let's not take brand reputational risk and have a different set of guidelines, but long story short, you just, you know, he's telling the pod. His name is Michael. He's saying, you know, we can't hold onto these cars. And like, you know, we put some recon into them. We make them like, you know, as normal as possible. But he said, like we are, we can't hold onto them plus the buyer does their own title and tag. I mean, it's pretty, it's pretty remarkable how it adds up everything you're saying. It makes total sense given with the market and where it's at. Yeah, I think the sub sub $10,000 car that we all used to look for that was still a good car now is a sub $15,000 to $20,000 car. And I think the people that are financially strapped to where they only have five, $6,000 aren't finding those cars on Facebook marketplace or the side of the road. So they are forced to come to maybe some of these franchise dealers they've never thought to explore and look at, which is great for the automotive industry for somebody like myself that's trying to change people's expectations because it's bringing in a different clientele that, you know, maybe today they need something like this that in three, four, five years they may need something nicer in return. So it's a great way for us as a dealership to grow market share as well.

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Transitioning to hybrids. Hybrids are they're getting all the attention. So hybrid market share is eclipse full bev like battery electric vehicle market share, right? So hybrids we've known have been the talk of the talent, but marketer has been rising again, Zach, you're to your exhibit A of this. Jessica, what's happening? Where are we headed to next year? Like what give us the land on the hybrid situation? Yeah, I mean, I think hybrid right now in terms of market share is really availability issue because where it is right now, it's slightly lower than it was last year, but I think it's the demand is high and they're just not the vehicles to support continued growth in market share. But I don't I think that is a separate issue. But I think as people look towards the electrified future, they see hybrids is sort of maybe more of their comfort zone of where they are right now. They're not ready to figure out battery charging. I got I just saw like a long threat about people in my neighborhood trying to figure out how to get a charger and their voltage wasn't right. It was like I could just see people being turned off by the idea as the thread went on, but hybrid, you don't really have to change your relationship with your vehicle. So I think that when folks are kind of doing the research, they're like, well, you know, maybe a hybrid is right for me this year, maybe in five years time, things look different. So that excitement that we saw with EVs is a bit tempered.
转向混合动力车。混合动力车现在备受关注。混合动力车的市场份额已经超过了纯电动电池车(BEV)的市场份额,对吧?一直以来混合动力车都是热门话题,但最近市场地位再次上升了。Zach,你就是一个典型的例子。Jessica,现在情况如何?明年会怎么样?给我们讲讲混合动力车的现状吧。 嗯,我认为目前混合动力车的市场份额主要还是受限于供应问题。尽管市场份额比去年略低,但需求依然很高,只是车辆供应不足以支持市场份额的持续增长。但我认为这是另一个问题。我觉得当人们展望电气化未来时,他们可能更倾向于选择混合动力车,因为这更符合他们现阶段的舒适区。他们还没准备好应对电池充电的问题。 我刚刚看到我的社区有一条很长的讨论,大家在研究如何安装充电器,但电压不对劲,光从讨论中就能看出很多人对这个想法心生厌烦。但是对于混合动力车,你不需要改变自己与车辆的关系。所以我觉得当人们在做研究时,他们可能会想,今年选择混合动力车比较合适,五年后再看情况可能会不一样。因此,我们看到的对电动车的热情有所减弱。

And even if you looked at what where EVs were selling, you know, hybrids were selling a few years ago, they're at parody and EVs were just going to shoot up right past them. And that hasn't happened now. Hybrids are are outselling them. And I think it's just it's a it's a real practicality. It's so excited to be hyped about the new is the newest, latest, greatest thing. But it may not be the best solution for everyone, especially geographically where you are, big difference between living in San Francisco and West Texas. It's not for everyone, especially when you look at just the geography across the United States. Zach, are you seeing this similarly in store? Look, we know that sales hybrid sales are on fire. But what what is the conversation like, right? Is it people coming in for the hybrid or is it more of these are my option? So I'm going to take a hybrid. What are you really seeing on the ground level? Yeah, I think what Jessica said, I think the comfortability of electric vehicle intrigues a lot of people, but also terrifies them. So the hybrid market has become truly a wildfire for us that, you know, Toyota went all in on hybrid and it took so much criticism a year and a half ago about being left behind and falling back to kind of what Toyota has been known for as the last one to the show with technology and the new nuances of the automotive industry. And now today they're looking again, like the forerunner of front of the game, front of the pack and that hybrid market that continued to grow, where everybody else went full electric, why other manufacturers forced people to put massive investments into electric vehicles are now walking that all back to the hybrid market.
即使几年前你看看电动车和混合动力车的销售情况,它们本来差不多,而电动车应该会迅速超过混合动力车。然而,事实并非如此,现在混合动力车的销量更高。我认为这是一个实际问题。我们总是对最新、最棒的东西感到兴奋,但它不一定适合所有人,尤其是地理位置差异,比如住在旧金山和德克萨斯西部之间的巨大差异。这并不适合每个人,特别是考虑到美国各地的地理情况。 Zach,你在店里看到的情况也是这样吗?我们知道混合动力车销量火爆,但具体的情况是什么?是人们主动来买混合动力车,还是因为其他原因选择了它?在实际层面上你看到的是什么? 是的,我同意Jessica所说的。电动车的舒适性吸引了很多人,但也让他们感到害怕。因此混合动力车市场对我们来说就像野火一样增长。比如丰田完全投入混合动力车市场,尽管一年半前它因为落后于技术和汽车行业的新趋势而遭到大量批评,但现在他们再次成为行业领跑者。混合动力车市场不断增长,而其他厂商全力推进纯电动车并让人们投入大量资金后,现在却都在回归混合动力车市场。

So truly, we've seen that part be untouchable where as we talked earlier, just a hybrid vehicle and allocation is pre sold before it arrives. And if we have one that becomes available, it's gone over the weekend. It doesn't make it three, four, five days in inventory because the line of people that are still willing to accept something like this are triple the ones that are still looking at internal combustion engines. What about consumer expectations? Like our consumers demanding the hybrids, are they willing to pay more for the hybrids? What do you see there? I mean, this would be a treating you want for me to learn from Jessica too. From what we're seeing in the micro kind of side of things is we don't really see a consumer really hesitating too much with the idea of going with hybrid over an internal combustion with the price difference. I think in their mind, they see 40 miles per gallon versus 30 miles per gallon. That's justifiable enough, even though maybe the math doesn't make it as clear. But I think it's just the acceptance of I'm getting more and this is better. And I think that because the EV marketing has been so hard, so well pushed, so aggressive that they're not for sure if they can make that shift. So the hybrid is the easiest next move for them.
所以,我们确实看到这个部分是不可触及的,就像我们之前讨论的,只要是混合动力车,分配在到达之前就已经预售了。而且如果有一辆车变得可用,它在周末就会被买走。它不会在库存中待上三、四、五天,因为愿意接受混合动力车的人数是仍在关注内燃机车的人的三倍。 那么消费者的期望如何?我们的消费者对混合动力车是否有需求?他们愿意为混合动力车支付更多费用吗?你怎么看?我也想从杰西卡那儿学学。从我们在微观层面看到的是,消费者对选择混合动力车而不是内燃机车在价格差异方面并没有太多犹豫。我认为在他们看来,40英里每加仑对比30英里每加仑是足够合理的,尽管数学上可能不是那么清楚。但我认为他们接受的是“我得到更多,这更好”。 我认为由于电动车的市场营销非常强烈,非常到位,非常有攻击性,他们不确定是否能做出那个转变。所以对他们来说,混合动力车是最容易的下一步。

I was talking to a reporter from a large California newspaper and they were saying that they are convinced that a lot of consumers buy hybrids. So they look like they're making the effort to go green, not necessarily committing to a full battery electric, but it's like, look at me, I'm trying. I'm going to go hybrid, not just go internal combustion engine. So there could be a little bit of that sentiment, but I do think that the math is really interesting, especially if you're buying a hybrid at MSRP or even a little above MSRP if you actually are getting that return on investment for the payback.
我跟一家加州大报的记者聊过,他们说,很多消费者买混合动力车,是为了显示自己在努力环保。并不一定是真心想用全电动汽车,而是像在说:"看我,我在尝试呢。" 他们选择混合动力车,而不是传统的内燃机车。因此,这里可能有一些这样的情感因素在,但我确实认为,如果你按厂商建议零售价(MSRP)或者稍高一点的价格买混合动力车,计算回报还是挺有趣的。

Because the case is hard. I mean, fuel economy, especially for Toyota is good across the board. It's not like we're getting 10, 15 miles a gallon these days, even internal combustion engines are fairly compelling. So that delta between that and the hybrid sometimes takes a long time to actually pay back in reality. But I think that is it is overlooked in many cases because they feel like this is the better way to go and this is sort of like more of the future and you're buying a new car anyways, you might as well like kind of get ahead of it.

And that's what I think they're deciding to do, even though they probably are, you know, in some cases, even waiting. I just imagine that the truck pulls up with the hybrids at Zach Shop and there's like fanfare happens. People are so excited that they finally have arrived. All right. So we're talking about value. So I want to pose a question to both of you and I'm curious to see what you're going to say here. What about used EVs like full electric vehicles, but used ones, right? Because those have been pretty good value in the market in terms of price point, the use DV tax credit and just the way prices came down, really driven by new car prices that came down so significantly. So quite that's to both of you, right? How do you think about the value in the used EV space and also Zach for you? How are you capitalizing on that?

What I would look at if I was a consumer or trying to make the best decision is not only use TVs, but what is the difference between the use of these and then EV releases because we know that those are pretty cheap as well. I mean, the EV lease rate last month in April was 68 percent. So 68 percent of all you sold in the US were leased. They know that there's good deals there. So I think that that would really be the trade off to see exactly what would those price points be? How would they differ if the EVs used EVs is a good deal because yeah, there are great deals to be had out there on the use side. But you know, they're all. And Jessica, that that 68 percent number is on new EVs, right? Correct. Yeah, new EVs. And then Zach on your end, are you capitalizing on this? Are you scared to touch use TVs because of the price, you know, the random kind of price drops that have happened or how do you think about it? Yeah, exactly. So we've stayed away from them. I mean, they're just untouchable for us as far as pre on vehicles go.

And even if that's a trade in value, we'll be pretty blunt with individuals and saying, hey, this may be a perfect car max car, Vanna car. Wait, so you've stayed from you've stayed from use TVs completely. Completely. Yep. So our battle with this has just been the market shift we've seen. And I shared with them that there's a dealer I know that had 13ish Tesla's in inventory and when Tesla reduced the price on all of their electric vehicles, that just replenished their actual value and asset and the profit just completely went away. And now this dealer sat with 13 vehicles and an investment standpoint that they can't make up the difference of what just happened.
即使这是一种交易价值,我们也会非常坦率地告诉个人,说“嘿,这可能是一个非常适合车贩子(Car Max)或者Vroom(一种线上车贩商)的车。”等等,你完全避开了使用电视广告。完全避开了,是的。我们与市场的斗争只是因为市场发生了变化。我还跟他们分享了一个熟识的经销商的情况,这个经销商手里有大约13辆特斯拉。当特斯拉降低了所有电动车的价格时,这直接影响到了这些车的实际价值和资产,利润完全消失了。现在,这个经销商面临着13辆车的库存,从投资的角度来看,他们无法弥补损失。

So between the tax incentives, between even people writing off as far as business expenses on some of these leases, because they qualify for Section 179 as weight goes. We've seen just this market volatility that we can't feel confident running the data through and making sure that if we put this investment together, we can exit this in 15 days and still be profitable because the market is shifting that fast with electrified vehicles. That's fascinating. I think I think this is such an opportunity for industry. I mean, there should be in theory, there should be no dealership that stays away from any type of vehicle at some price.

And so it just makes me wonder, like, how does that solve? And I'm sure someone listening to this has a great idea. I've put out some ideas out there, but needless to say, I mean, it's definitely because of the volatility we've had in the last couple of years, you're not alone in that field by any means. Frankly, I've had lots of conversations about this with people about, you know, simply not touching cars, you know, another, another one, which, you know, a bit of a higher price point than the average EV, I would say, but like forward lightnings, you know, I know some, you know, certain dealers that are just, I won't trade and afford lightning, which I also found that, you know, it's, it can't say it's shocking to me, but it is, it does make you wonder, like how, you know, what's the end game here? How's that solved?
这让我不禁想,这问题怎么解决?我相信听到这的人肯定会有好主意。我也提出了一些建议,但不用说,过去几年里市场的波动确实让你在这个领域并不孤单。坦白说,我跟很多人讨论过这个问题,特别是关于根本不碰车这件事,还有另一类,比如说前沿闪电(Ford Lightning),这款车的价格点比平均电动车要高一些,我知道有些经销商根本不会交易这款车。我并不感到惊讶,但这确实让人觉得,这么做的目的是什么?如何解决呢?

So what I do want to, I do want to flip that on its head for a second. I want to ask you about ice and internal combustion. I mean, at this point, do you have anyone coming in strictly looking for internal combustion or like get me away from all this, like hybrid stuff? Like, do you see that as a market that's just going to, you know, wither away and it could be almost inexistent, at least within your brands or the mainstream brands? How do you see that today? Yeah, I think there's probably 10 to 15 percent of consumers that are still you know, steadfast on the internal combustion engine. I think that the majority have made the shift or at least the mindset of being open to explore it. There's still the 10 to 15 percent that are performance, the V8s, the trucks, the SUVs, not enough towing capacity, torque, etc, which is unique to see that some of that in the hybrid side on the SUVs and pickup trucks have come from a performance increase, not necessarily a fuel economy increase.
所以我想倒过来问一下你关于冰和内燃机的问题。现在,还有人专门来找内燃机的车吗?或者有那种想彻底远离混合动力车的顾客吗?你觉得这个市场会逐渐消失,甚至在你们的品牌或主流品牌中几乎不存在吗?你怎么看待这一点? 是的,我认为大概有10%到15%的消费者依然坚守使用内燃机。我觉得大部分人已经接受了转变,或者至少愿意尝试混合动力车。但仍有10%到15%的人坚持使用性能车,比如V8发动机的车、卡车和SUV,这些车需要更大的牵引力和扭矩等,这些特点在某些混合动力的SUV和皮卡中也有了性能上的提升,而不是纯粹为了提高燃油经济性。

So it's going to definitely always be there 10 to 15 percent. I think what we're seeing in the day to day in will refuse to have any conversation. I think the success that the Toyota Prius has had for as many years as it has with reliability and being ranked as the number one vehicle for, you know, 12 years in reliability, I know Edmunds just ranked it as a top car in the previous year. So for us to see that kind of be there instead fast for so many years is allowing us to have kind of that confidence in education, but they're still going to be 10 to 15 percent that just refuses the idea of new technology. And I think that's an industry not just automotive and internal combustion engines.

Can you give us an overview right now on what is happening with interest rates, monthly payments, really the health of the consumer? Can you run us down through the current state? Yeah, I mean, we keep thinking that maybe interest rates will hopefully start to go down at some point in time. And I think that there has been influence from subsidized interest rates on the new vehicle side. So I think that that definitely helps. But when we look across the board on aggregate, interest rates for new vehicles are still over 7 percent on average for used vehicles. They're over 11 percent and that translates into a monthly payment that's like around $550. And if you actually look at that plus the term and the interest rate, someone that is buying a used vehicle on average is paying $10,000 in interest alone. So it is definitely a shift from where this industry was a few years ago, where it was like low APRs are really what's helping sell people into bigger vehicles, more content, all of those things.
您能为我们概述一下目前利率、月供以及消费者的经济状况吗?您能详细介绍当前的情况吗? 好的,我们一直在希望利率会在某个时间点开始下降。我认为新车方面,受补贴利率的影响,这会有所帮助。但总体来看,新车的平均利率仍然超过7%,二手车则超过11%,这意味着月供大约在550美元左右。如果把贷款期限和利率都考虑进去,买一辆二手车的人仅利息就要支付大约1万美元。所以,与几年前利率较低的时候相比,如今利率较高对消费者的购车选择带来了一定的影响,那时候低利率有助于推动人们购买更大、更豪华的车辆。

And now I imagine it's just the opposite. People are having to go for the $15, $20,000 used vehicle because that's where that's the only monthly payment that they can afford. So yeah, so I mean, the credit market is still pretty tough for the for the average consumer. So, you know, again, I think that conversation we had about the relevancy and interest that people will have with low APR interest rate communications is definitely going to be valid as we as we move to the summer and you have model your selldowns and summer sales events and all those type of things.

What are you seeing as the most common ways right now where people how are people learned their payments? Like what's driving the what's the most common way you're seeing in the market today? Well, I think you have people that are, you know, their income is higher and they can stomach a shorter loan term. And so you will see that a little bit of people just taking a, you know, whatever a three, three year loan term rather than someone that would have traditionally at least gone five years. But again, I think your income level has to be quite high, especially with these, these these car prices to do that.

And on the used vehicle side, what we do see is people are having to buy their just going for more miles, older vehicles. So, you know, again, those those older trade ins that come are probably good for those type of consumers because they were maybe a three year old or a CPO type of a customer before. Now they're having to go five, seven years just to get something within their budget. Zach, talk just a little bit about in store operations. I think Jessica, we're we're getting pretty close to the consumer survey and I want to pass the baton to you. I think it's some really good insight there. Zach, you mentioned earlier about leasing penetration being extremely low with Toyota specifically. Definitely not. I wouldn't call that an industry trend, but Toyota is an anomaly in that sense. First of all, open question, right? Like biggest challenges you're experiencing in store right now. Yeah, I think the biggest challenge that we're experiencing right now is the interest rates flat out. I mean, I think it's changed consumers expectations. It's changed the way that we do financing.

It's changed the way that we look at the position of a finance manager. Truly looked at the way how a salesperson sells a vehicle because if we haven't addressed that culture shock of you know, you are going to pay $10,000 in interest. You are going to have these different aspects as far as you know, that your total total payments at the end of the loan itself. Consumers are looking at buying a car so much different than how they have historically since I've been in this industry and especially this specific store. So I think that everyone's learning how to live and function differently in a world where the zero percent like we talked about in the very beginning are the anomaly in that when they are there, they're making consumer decisions where maybe someone leaves the Toyota brand for zero percent, even though I've bought four to five, six Toyota's my whole life and my parents said always buy them. I now can't afford to stay in that. So it's a shift that we're going to have to learn how to be ahead of the curve versus reactive.

Yeah, definitely impacting brand loyalty and then talk to me about your interest for hits, right? Let's turn the tables on you. Talk about floor plan. What are you playing in floor plans? How much are your credits your floor plan credits off setting that? Of course, for anyone listening, floor plan credits are provided by the auto manufacturer to the dealer and they credit their floor plan expense. So just give us a little of the transparent details into what that world looks like. Yeah, as far as transparency goes with it, right? That's the real reason number one reason why we're being so aggressive to move inventory as fast as possible is historically we've had one of the greatest floor plan rates in the low single digits across the board that we could see and we've fallen in love with it and it was never a big deal to have a car in inventory because it was costing you pennies on the dollar for the opportunity you have.
是的,绝对会影响品牌忠诚度。那么,谈谈你对访问量的兴趣吧,对吧?让我们调换一下角色。谈谈楼面计划。你在楼面计划中扮演什么角色?你的楼面计划信贷在抵消那方面有多大?当然,为了让听众了解,楼面计划信贷是由汽车制造商提供给经销商的,他们会抵消经销商的楼面计划费用。那么给我们一点透明的细节,看看那个世界到底是什么样的。 是的,就透明度而言,这就是我们这么积极快速移动库存的真正主要原因。我们历史上拥有全行业最低的楼面计划利率之一,几乎在个位数,我们彻底喜欢它,把车库存起来并不是件大事,因为你为此付出的成本几乎是微不足道的。

And now with an interest rate that's jumped in the five, six, seven percent, depending on where market is, it's become an incentive and imperative to get rid of the vehicle. So maybe the sales staff doesn't understand that to a full transparency standpoint, but as far as my management team and operation team, it's truly the difference between running a profit today versus running a profit in 30 days. Even though you sell that car in 30 days and make a profit on the car, you may not see a net dealer profit due to what you play in floor plans due to the credit being absorbed versus obviously being something that you can offset in the ownership experience. So it's definitely a game that we're playing by all means Toyota's market has not given us that opportunity to have more inventory.

So it's kind of that double edged sword where we want to have the opportunity to sell more cars to consumers, but also can we afford to have all these cars on the lot? I know there's some domestic stores that have a hundred plus on the ground. And I just think as I go by their lots, how are you making it with what you have there, which is where I think you see on some of the wholesale sites, new cars being listed immediately day one for wholesale with three miles on seven miles, 10 miles because some of these dealers can't withstand their floor plan and how it is sitting up as far as lending goes. So definitely a very new dynamic to have new cars that are being wholesale. Definitely.

Zach, on that topic, what is your inventory strategy? Like if you could summarize it into like 30 seconds, how are you managing your inventory? I'm specifically referring to, you know, do you just do your work on specific turn times, meaning like price cuts at certain points? Are you how often are you changing those prices? And then third, how are you marketing it? Yeah. So a used car side, I mean, it's daily the turn on the use car side for us is of 45 days. Once the car gets to 50 days, it's full dump the vehicle. It doesn't matter how good you bought it. It doesn't matter what it looks like. Doesn't matter how unique it's got to go because of market volatility.
扎克,关于那个话题,你的库存策略是什么?你能用30秒概括一下吗?你是如何管理库存的?我具体指的是,你是否根据特定的周转时间来工作,比如在某个时候降价?你的降价频率是怎样的?然后,你是如何进行市场营销的? 嗯,在二手车方面,我们每天都会处理。在我们这边,二手车的平均周转时间是45天。一旦车辆超过50天,我们就会彻底处理掉,不管当初买得多划算,不管它看起来多好,不管它多独特,都要处理掉,因为市场的波动性太大了。

New car side for us. It's back to that analytics game for us about at what price point does this car so how quick do we need to move, how many are available? It's the same thing that I think dealers have done for years on the use car market, but never really looked at it as far as new car because the supply was always there. We're always going to get more. So for us, it's trying to again be ahead of that curve where most dealers still are not necessarily there. It's always amazing to me to look at when we have the opportunity to dealer locate or dealer trade with another dealer for a specific vehicle.

And I do still find new Toyotas that are 75 days in inventory and it's still at MSRP and the dealer's response is we can't get this vehicle. And my response is where you're not going to get another one because you haven't sold that one either back to that day supply strategy that Toyota corporate sharing with the franchise models. So for us, it's really using things again like Edmunds tool and Edmunds premiere to be able to find opportunities to identify where customers are searching. Where are they at in the market and how can we get there?
我仍然发现一些新的丰田车已经在库存里放了75天,价格依然是厂家建议零售价(MSRP),经销商的回应是他们无法获得这款车。而我的回应是,你们不会再收到另一辆车,因为你们连这辆都还没卖出去。这就回到了丰田公司和特许经营模式分享的"库存供应策略"。对于我们来说,我们实际上是使用像Edmunds工具和Edmunds Premiere这样的东西,来寻找机会,识别顾客的搜索位置。他们在市场上的位置是哪里,我们该如何到达这些位置。

And that's where we've used social media to try to push for our store that one one connection with a consumer to kind of open it. And TikTok lives have been absolutely jaw dropping that every time we do one, we learn something else and sell a car on a TikTok live, which and the world thought we would be doing that. Yeah.

So for sure, explain for anyone that doesn't know what is a TikTok live. What are you doing on these videos? Give us the whole school. Yeah. So for us, TikTok live, truly, we got on it just to be brand recognition. Again, when I'm walking through the showroom and I would say 70 percent of my staff is at some point in the day scrolling through social media, TikTok.

I've realized that we need to be doing something even if it's just who we are. And we got on to the TikTok game, making the funny parodies, you know, the office style videos, what's it like to be inside a dealership? I think anyone who's worked in dealership has always thought if only there was a camera in here, it could be a real life sitcom or real life series. So for us, it was that opportunity to share the TikTok lives for us is truly just going directly simulcast, essentially, turning on the web came on your phone and being able to talk with whoever wants to view. And it is game changing, jaw dropping, how many human beings are willing to turn their phone on and just watch somebody walk down inventory and say, here's what we have in inventory in a 30 minute TikTok live. We could have 50 to 150,000 viewers.

We just had an interview with a 16 year old that was looking to start his career as an apprentice technician that came from TikTok live because my service director, its best friend, commented and said, I hate the fact that your dealership is on my TikTok live. My service director gets a phone call from him, runs down to the guy doing TikTok live, gets on their introduces himself in yesterday, had a 16 year old interview about a kid that wants to have a career in auto mechanics. Like that's gold for us in the auto industry to find someone that young, raising their hand saying, I want to be a part of this. That's that connection that we have as far as selling vehicles, as far as market updates, as far as being directly in a consumer's hand at the time they're making a buying decision.

So that's where we've tried to use this social media platform that we're trying to learn how to establish is kind of that secret sauce, if you would. You guys are doing great work. So I'm sure someone listened to this. There has to be some people that are going to give this a shot because this is it's really incredible how you're you're basically you're showcasing again, it's it's it's the strategy, right? You're documenting and showcasing who you are, fills trust with the audience, bring in demand, fascinating, great work.

All right, Jessica, let's dive into the survey from Edmonds. You work you worked on a survey about consumer sentiment, shopping behavior, some great insight in there. And so I'll turn the baton over to you and let you take us through this. Yeah, I would love to get a lot of your reactions on to these questions to the OC obviously. I'm ready. We so we did a survey, we do lots of surveys, but this one is kind of just about the shopping process is particularly how it relates to the online world, because obviously that's of interest to us.

And since we just talked about the success that Zach has found on TikTok, what are the interesting things that I saw in the survey is we asked these folks, like in terms of like the sites out there, what has the strongest impact of your purchase decision? So these are people that are in market, they're planning to buy within the next six months or they just bought in the past three months. So very fresh, very recent customers across the United States. So we just did all the websites out there. Luckily for us, there's some same people and they cited car shopping websites like Edmonds as the top.

So thank God for that. We can keep our lights on. But the ones I would love to get more of your take on is YouTube, which 16% of people said that that has had a big impact on their purchase decision as well as social media, Instagram, TikTok, Reddit, 14%. So 14% of people out there are saying this has the biggest impact on my purchase decision, what I'm seeing. Do you think that is surprising or do you think that that kind of goes in line of what we've been talking about here with these TikTok lives? Yeah.
所以感谢上帝,我们还能够开着灯。但我更希望听听你对以下平台的看法:YouTube,16%的人表示它对他们的购买决定有很大影响,以及社交媒体如Instagram, TikTok, Reddit,有14%。也就是说,14%的人认为这些平台对他们的购买决定影响最大。你觉得这令人惊讶吗?或者你觉得这和我们之前讨论的TikTok直播是一致的?

So I think the first thing that comes to mind is it reminds me of the whole digital retailing thing of like 100% of people buy their car online. It just the question is how much online do they really do? Do they just find the car coming at store? Right. So it to me feels similar, similar to your point, Zach. You said something, Zach said something fascinating about what about what do you notice in store? And I'm a huge believer in this.

I call this like, you know, I'm going to make something right now, but I call it like the going with the grain philosophy, which is that you see your employees in store on social media, right? One thing you could do, one side is you could be like, stop doing that, like go call your lead or whatever. You could do something that. But another thing you could do is you could go with the grain, right? And be like, oh, you're obsessed with social media or TikTok. You love this platform. Amazing. How about we create some content for the dealership?

So all that said, I think that Jessica to the 16% point you made, I think it's probably higher in reality, like people that are exposed to. But it does feel to me, it does make to me, it feels like it makes a lot of sense. Because when you think about where nowadays how different generations consume content, get their news, you know, social media increasingly is sucking up our time and it's just gotten a lot harder to get people off platform to do anything, especially when it comes to consuming content, forget like engaging with a site like, you know, Edmans and going through, you know, seeing cars and stuff like that.

That's a more rich experience, right? But simply consuming content, it's just begun a lot harder to get people off platform. And so I always say like everything on the internet, I mean, not even on the internet, I mean, everything, every form of entertainment or you could be watching Netflix on a TV, but you're competing with social media, which is like the de facto destination for consuming content. So I'm bullish clearly. It's my livelihood. It's what it's what it's everything we do. But I think that it's going to it's going to continue rising.

And I think that, you know, niche and very focused businesses are very niche and focus on something specific. Like what Zach was just mentioning here. I think are going to win in the present and the future increasingly. Yeah, I think the word bullish is probably the safest word when I think about it. Because again, to your point of exactly going with the grain, like we we realized very quickly that we could spend five to fifteen to twenty thousand dollars for a marketing campaign to get out to ten thousand mailboxes and get these letters and I'm sure every single person listening has received come by the dealership, get a gift card, come by the dealership, get a free oil change. Or I could do a ten minute skit that cuts down to a sixty second max video post on TikTok, YouTube shorts, reels. And I could then get it shared by the twenty sales associates on myself, four plus the leaders and I'm in ten thousand phones in the next ten seconds. And that's the power that we found is like getting the team behind engagement as well and finding that opportunity to solicit and share with consumers that really is that power base that you talk about day one in the auto industry of like sell your family and friends. Well, how are we marketing to them as well?
我认为,专注于某个小众市场和具体领域的企业在现在和未来会越来越成功。就像Zach刚才提到的那样,当我想到这个问题时,"看好"可能是最合适的词语。再说一下你的观点,我们很快意识到可以花费五千到一万五千甚至二万美元在一个营销活动上,寄到一万个邮箱,附上那些信件——我相信每个听众都收到过类似的信件,比如"来我们经销商店,可以获得礼品卡"或者"免费换机油"等。但我们还可以拍一个10分钟的短剧,剪辑成一分钟以内的视频,发布在TikTok、YouTube Shorts、Reels上。然后,可以让二十个销售员分享,包括我自己以及四个领导,我们在十秒钟内就可以进入一万个手机。这就是我们发现的力量——让团队参与进来,找到机会与消费者互动和分享。就像在汽车行业中,从第一天起就谈论的那样:"卖给你的家人和朋友"。那么,我们如何向他们进行营销呢?

And back to obviously the consumer data through that survey, I think it's so spot on of like going to an end means when you're down funnel to solidify that this is the right decision in using social media such as YouTube to confirm what the consumer report says, what's the market show, what's it at? And then using TikTok quick social media to even discover what's out there. Yeah, that makes sense. If anyone's curious, dealer websites were tied with social media at 14 percent. So that also had an impact on approaches, decision and manufacture websites were at 10 percent. So they came in last. Apparently people are less excited about going to four dot com than then TikTok. And and and you know, it's funny like it makes total sense to me, right? Because think about it, you go to the manufacturer's website. It's it's it's a it feels so impersonal. Like I can get not all, but I can get a lot of the information already on, you know, on social, right, companies, you know, playing companies, of course, admins, right, you'll take that you'll have your team create all this other content. So it does feel like that that also I wouldn't say that doesn't surprise me because it's like the most impersonal destination for consuming that content. And it's also the most like produced, right? You don't get really like authentic and raw takes. So I think I think that makes sense.

OK, so going along. We got next. OK, so going along those lines, we asked them has an ad swayed you to consider another brand. Pretty split here. 46 percent said yes. I think that that's pretty, you know, that's pretty. I mean, I wouldn't say it's it's surprising. But when you think about the the gravity of a vehicle purchase, it's not like I saw an ad for like a cool sweater on Instagram and that I bought it for 20 bucks. This is a vehicle that's as we just talked about a lot of money and a multi year commitment to. So I think that portion is interesting. But so if those people that did say yes, where did you see the ad? 28 percent said YouTube. 26 percent said social media, Instagram, TikTok, Reddit, traditional TV down to 12 percent. So big difference. I think it just shows the showing world between what people are looking at on traditional media versus the social media, because that is a big jump.
好的,那么继续说。我们接下来就问了他们一个问题:广告是否曾让你考虑换另一个品牌?这个问题的回答结果基本上是对半开的,46% 的人说是的。我认为这很有意思。我不能说这很惊讶,但当你考虑到购买车辆的重要性时,这真的很不寻常。毕竟,这不像是在 Instagram 上看到一件很酷的毛衣然后花 20 美元就买下了。这是一辆车,就像我们刚才提到的,花费很多,且是一项多年的承诺。所以我觉得这个结果很有意思。那么那些说“是”的人,看到广告的渠道都有哪些呢?28% 的人说是在 YouTube 上,26% 的人说是在社交媒体上,如 Instagram、TikTok、Reddit,传统电视的比例降到了 12%。这差距非常大。我认为这显示了人们在传统媒体和社交媒体上所看的内容的巨大差异,因为这是一个很大的跳跃。

And this survey was a field across all age groups to match the US population. So it's not just a bunch of young people saying I saw social media, but I thought that that was interesting as well. So when you're thinking about like shopping a car, like what you're going to buy. The number one thing that people had cited was most important. And these consumers were forced to rank these, say, rank them against each other. So the thing that came up first was safety. So airbags, collision, crash systems, and then fuel economy that was pretty close second, then performance, comfort, design, technology. And then lastly was the driver assistance type features. So basically people are saying that safety is the most important to them and then also fuel economy. So very, I would say very pragmatic responses.

But it kind of goes to, I mean, what my sentiment is, you're filling out a survey. I feel like you probably, if you have a family and you're not important, it feels like a bit of a jerk move, you know, stated verse revealed preferences for sure. It's funny because I had this post I used to make, right, which is like all you need nowadays to sell a car is four wheels and apple car play or something like that. It wasn't exactly because it's definitely not true. But it was supposed to be like a joking at the fact that people just kept requesting apple car play in the car or like, oh, I don't want it. It doesn't have car play. And so I'm actually surprised that technology is not higher up on that list. But again, they might be saying one thing and doing another thing like, oh, yeah, safety, right? I care about my family. I got to do safety. But then when the push comes to shop, they're like, give me the car the best technology. That's what I want first.

So, you know, I'd be curious to know how that works. And then I will tell you, right? I posted about like a month ago, I think it was a month ago about test driving a Tesla with the latest full self driving. And I had a really, really great experience. Like I was, I felt, I mean, it was just it worked phenomenally for me. And I wrote about it like really, really objectively that this is a really great technology is for and based on the limited driving I did. So, you know, I'm sure other people may be different, less metro areas, maybe how the different experience. But all that said is that if I had to make some predictions, again, putting stated versus revealed preferences aside, I do think that this like driver's assistance, self driving stuff, it will rise in just the coming for like five, ten years because I know that, you know, my experience was very positive. And I could see I could see consumers increasingly demanding this, you know, in a way that would fall under technology, I guess. But again, just another personal experience of my own.

Yeah. I mean, I think these are very pragmatic responses, but we as we know, like, carbine is as an emotional process. It's not like you go in there without any emotion. All of a sudden you see the interior, you imagine your life in that and all of a sudden the vehicle sold, right? It's not about so much about it has X amount of airbags, I think. So it's it's very different. So I think in terms of like how maybe you communicate to shoppers that are, you know, haven't even started the process or just starting the process, kind of looking around, maybe looking for different cues of what actually sells at the dealership when they are there physically, which I imagine may be a little bit different.

And the last one I think I just wanted to share with you guys was time to research vehicle purchase because this is sort of all over the board when we looked at the response. So how long are you taking to actively research before you purchase? 15% said less than 30 days, 40%, which was the largest group said one to three months. I think that's pretty in line. But then you have this group that is three to six months at 28%. And then pretty much it kind of really goes down from there, six to nine months, five percent, nine plus months, five percent. And then seven percent of people say that they're just always out there looking at at vehicles. How do you kind of keep in given that it's such a long time frame?
我想和你们分享的最后一个数据是关于购买车辆前所花费的调研时间,因为这个结果非常多样化。当我们看调查结果时,发现大家在购买前究竟花了多长时间进行调研? 有15%的人表示用了不到30天,40%的人选择了一到三个月的时间,这是最多的一组。我觉得这个时间段还是比较合理的。但也有28%的人需要三到六个月的时间进行调研。而六到九个月的只有5%,调研超过九个月的也是5%。另外,有7%的人表示他们一直在关注和研究车辆。 考虑到这个调研时间跨度如此长,你们如何应对这种情况呢?

Is it challenging to keep in front of a consumer this whole time? Because you have people that are kind of immediate, but then you have people probably looking at when is their lease term and when is their loan term and maybe a year from now and trying to keep in front of them to keep your dealership at top of mind? Is there any way that you market, especially to those folks, Zach? I think that's how we're looking at the social media podcast kind of thing is. How do we stay relative to them at their time, timeline, their time pace?

But I think also the other side is when a consumer makes a decision to do something, they move pretty quick. One of the beauties of the techy on DMS CRM that we're on right now is that it actually tracks lead to sale time. And it's a little clear than other DMSs or CRMs we've been in because they're they're sharing the same platform. It's not going between one platform tool to another. So for us, we're surprised that by the time a lead comes in, a consumer comes in as a true lead from whatever third party our dealership website, it's truly like a 24 hour window before they're in the showroom and another 24 hours before the cars in their driveway. So we're sub 48 hours. I think the last time I looked was like 42 hours from lead in to delivery. And our store historically closes around like 18 to 22% monthly on those internet leads. So we've been very aggressive, very strong in it, but it's surprising to see once they make that decision together, but we know that the average for what we've always said in store is 19 days of research before ever hand raising to say, I want more data. Let's do this buying process. So yeah, to hear your report say it could be even two to three months. That's somewhat surprising, but still known in that same sense as well.
但我也认为从另一个角度看,当消费者做出决定去做某事时,他们行动得很快。目前我们使用的DMS CRM系统的一个优势是它可以追踪从线索生成到销售完成的时间。相比于我们之前使用的其他DMS或CRM系统,这个系统要更清晰一些,因为它们在同一平台上运行,而不是在不同的平台工具之间切换。所以我们很惊讶地发现,一旦有线索进来,无论是从第三方还是我们经销商网站来的真实线索,实际上从生成到进入展厅只需大约24小时,再过24小时车就能到他们的车道上。所以整个过程不到48小时。我最近一次查看时,从线索生成到交付大约是42小时。我们店面一贯能够月度关闭18%到22%的互联网线索销售,因此我们一直非常积极,表现也非常强劲。但让人惊讶的是,一旦消费者做出了决策,他们的行动非常迅速。不过我们知道,通常在他们真正表示需要更多数据之前,平均会进行19天的研究。因此,听到你的报告说整个过程可能需要两到三个月,这有点令人意外,但也在预期之中。

Zach, thinking about the in store experience, thinking about the dealership, what are you most excited about for the remainder of the year? Right. Is there any trend? Is there anything specific you're seeing that you're pretty, you're thinking about it positively or is leading you to be pretty optimistic about where our industry is headed? Yeah, I think the automotive industry as a whole, the transparency factors being pushed for the first time, I think, where everybody's getting on that train no matter what, whether you like it or not, get on it because the internet's always been there to reveal some of that. But also, I think the market shift is occurring where now it is about speed. It's not about your sales skills. It's about availability. It's about what can you do for me, not come on in and let me show you what I could do in that scenario. The other side of it for us specifically, we're really excited about the new Land Cruiser that's just launching the forerunner. Those are both cult followings that people have been dying to see, both come back and be redesigned and we have our first Land Cruiser on the ground. The consumers coming to pick it up. The reservation process on those are insane because you don't know what you're getting. So we have people that have confirmed that they're willing to pay between $55,000 and $76,000 sales price because they don't know what trim make model they're getting. They're just hand raising saying, I want it my driveway and I'll be good with whatever I get. So it is a different clientele that we're excited to welcome back to the automotive industry as they've kind of been put on the back burner with the forerunner not being redesigned and the Land Cruiser being sunset and then brought back and now back into showrooms around the United States. So definitely excited about both of those. Good stuff. Looking forward to it.
扎克,谈到实体店体验和经销店,你在今年剩下的时间里最让你兴奋的是什么?有没有什么趋势,或者特定的事情让你对我们行业的发展充满信心? 嗯,我认为整个汽车行业现在首次推动透明化,不管你喜不喜欢,都得跟上时代的步伐。互联网一直存在,揭示了一些信息。此外,我觉得市场正在发生变化,现在讲究的是速度,而不是销售技巧。关键在于可供选择的东西和你能为我做什么,而不是让我去店里看你能做什么。 就我们特别关注的方面来说,我们对新款陆地巡洋舰和全新推出的4Runner感到非常兴奋。这两款车都有很多追随者,大家一直期待它们的回归和重新设计。我们已经收到首批陆地巡洋舰,客户正准备来提车。这些车的预订过程非常火爆,因为你不知道自己会拿到什么型号。有些消费者已经确认愿意支付55,000到76,000美元的销售价格,尽管他们不知道具体会拿到什么配置和型号,他们只是表示愿意把车开回家,无论拿到什么都很满意。 这是不同类型的客户群体,我们很高兴看到他们重新回到汽车行业。之前他们因为4Runner没有重新设计和陆地巡洋舰的停产而被忽视,现在这两款车重新回到美国的展厅,我们对此非常兴奋。好消息,很期待。

Jessica Caldwell from Edmonds. We got Zach Kins from Bob Rorman Toyota. Thanks for coming on. This was awesome. Thank you. Thanks guys. All right. Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating. Consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you guys next time.