Is Elon...Lying? / Tesla's FSD Rollout in China / Our Hybrid Future ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dilamumus. On today's episode, it's going to be an express version as I'm meeting up with some family this evening, so for those of you missing the 10-15 minute videos, today's your lucky day. From yesterday's video, I received this comment. I have not been able to confirm it, but I think it's worth passing along. He said that Marcy, from Calpurs, clarified she spoke to her team after and found out they did not vote for Elon's comp plan in 2018. Again, though, so far I have not been able to verify this, but I thought it was worth passing along because if Calpurs did indeed vote no in 2018, then at least they would be consistently voting no. I'll do what I can to verify this, but for now, either way, Marcy's lack of preparation for that segment was… interesting to say the least.

欢迎来到 Electrified，我是你的主持人，Dilamumus。今天的节目将是一个简短版，因为我今晚要与家人见面。所以对于那些期待10-15分钟视频的观众，今天是你们的幸运日。昨天的视频中，我收到了这样一个评论。尽管我还没能确认其真实性，但我觉得值得分享。他说来自 Calpurs 的 Marcy 澄清说，她事后跟团队沟通发现他们在2018年并没有投票支持埃隆的薪酬计划。不过，到目前为止我尚未验证这一点，但我认为分享这个信息很有价值，因为如果 Calpurs 在2018年确实投了反对票，那么他们至少在投票上是一致的。我会尽力验证这一点，但目前，无论如何，Marcy 在那个环节中的准备不足实在是……至少可以说是有些有趣。

I want to briefly take us back in time to when Elon said XAI is not raising capital and I have had no conversations with anyone in this regard. Quote posting XDailyNews saying XAI is seeking investments up to $6 billion for evaluation of $20 billion. This post from Elon was January 26th earlier this year. Well, as we know, exactly 4 months later to the day, XAI announced a series B funding round for that exact number $6 billion. I like to give Elon the benefit of the doubt and there's a chance that at this time the conversations for this funding round had not begun, but even more alarming, the rumor will call it at the time had the number exact $6 billion. So it's fair to ask the question, was Elon lying about this to some degree? I wanted to provide that context because today, replying to Herbert on X, Elon said there have not been any discussions of a role for me in a potential Trump presidency.

我想简要回顾一下，当时马斯克说XAI并没有在筹集资金，我也没有就此事与任何人进行过交流。引述XDailyNews的报道，称XAI正在寻求最高60亿美元的投资，估值为200亿美元。这篇马斯克的帖子是在今年1月26日发布的。众所周知，正好四个月后的今天，XAI宣布了一轮B轮融资，金额正好是60亿美元。我倾向于相信马斯克的话，也许在那个时候，这轮融资的谈判还没有开始。但更令人警觉的是，当时的传闻准确地提到了60亿美元。所以这个问题是合理的，马斯克是否在某种程度上撒了谎？我想提供这个背景是因为今天，马斯克在回复Herbert的帖子中说，目前没有关于在特朗普潜在总统任期中担任职务的讨论。

For now, I would just add, there does not have to be a formal role for Elon to be able to play and advise a role to whoever the president ends up being, but if it's Biden, that role seems even more unlikely. As many of you pointed out yesterday, during Trump's prior term, Elon said in June 2017, I'm departing presidential councils, climate change is real, leaving Paris is not good for America or the world. Thus, Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement led to Elon stepping down from his post in an advisory role. On the Elon and Trump front, Elon said, pretty sure I've never discussed crypto with Trump, although I'm generally in favor of things that shift power from government to the people which crypto can do.

目前，我只想补充一点，埃隆并不一定非得有一个正式的角色来为未来的总统提供建议，但如果是拜登当选，这种可能性就更低了。正如昨天许多人指出的那样，特朗普在上一个任期内，埃隆在2017年6月说过，我退出总统委员会，因为气候变化是真实的，退出巴黎协定对美国和世界都不好。因此，特朗普决定退出巴黎协定导致埃隆辞去了他的顾问职位。关于埃隆和特朗普，埃隆曾表示，确定我从未和特朗普讨论过加密货币，不过我一般支持能够将权力从政府转移到人民手中的事情，而加密货币就能做到这一点。

So look, in this regard, I don't know if Elon was lying or not, but he did say XAI was not raising capital and exactly four months later, they did exactly that, so whether it's lying or things changing, I thought that was important context. From the Department of Energy, they put out this chart showing us light duty EV models with a range of 300 miles or greater for the model year 2016 to 2023. In 2016, there was one vehicle fitting this category fast forward to last year and we had 19. Yes, progress, but still a number we'd like to see much higher. I'm very familiar with the daily driving statistics and that 300 miles a day is really not required, but I'm also familiar with people wanting their vehicle to be ready for a road trip if they decide to take one.

所以，听我说，对此我不确定埃隆是否在撒谎，但他说XAI没有筹集资金，而恰好四个月后，他们确实这么做了。所以无论是撒谎还是情况有变，我认为这是一个重要的背景信息。能源部发布了一张图表，显示了2016年至2023年间续航里程达到或超过300英里的轻型电动车型。在2016年，只有一款车符合这一类别；快进到去年，我们有了19款车。是的，这是进步，但这个数字仍然需要更高。我非常熟悉每日驾驶统计数据，知道一天开300英里实际上并不需要，但我也了解人们希望自己的车辆在他们决定出行时能够随时准备好。

We have Brookfield, a Canadian investment management company looking to invest in the Yohan and they're looking to buy 53.32% of the company. You should recognize the name Nioin as one of the biggest renewable energy players in Australia. They were also behind the project, the Hornsdale Power Reserve, which is better known as the Tesla Big Battery. An exec from Brookfield said we're excited to build on Brookfield's expertise track record and access to capital to further accelerate Nioin's growth while preserving its culture and identity. Nioin has significant expertise in battery storage tech, which will become an increasingly important part of the energy mix going forward. Brookfield sees the investment in Nioin as an opportunity to scale Nioin's portfolio of diverse high quality assets in a context of accelerating clean power demand. And as we've said before, the growth of AI and cloud computing continues to drive higher demand for renewable sources of power.

布鲁克菲尔德（Brookfield）是一家加拿大投资管理公司，计划投资于Yohan公司，并准备收购该公司53.32%的股份。你应该知道Nioin是澳大利亚最大的可再生能源公司之一。他们也是Hornsdale Power Reserve项目的幕后公司，该项目更广为人知的名字是“特斯拉大电池”（Tesla Big Battery）。布鲁克菲尔德的一位高管表示，我们很高兴能利用布鲁克菲尔德在专业领域的业绩记录和资金支持，进一步加速Nioin的增长，同时保留其文化和身份认同。Nioin在电池储能技术方面具有重要专长，这在未来的能源组合中将变得越来越重要。布鲁克菲尔德认为对Nioin的投资是一个机会，可以扩大Nioin多样化、高质量资产的组合，以应对快速增长的清洁能源需求。正如我们之前所说，人工智能和云计算的增长将继续推动对可再生能源的更高需求。

This is not a done deal yet, but Brookfield is offering $10.2 billion for that stake in Nioin. So if this goes through, that gives Nioin a big infusion of cash, a company that so far has really enjoyed working with Tesla. A program manager for the Department of Energy's technology incubator says US entrepreneurs should stop fretting and start inventing an EV that approaches the BYD price. The manager has suggested a competition to develop a high quality American made EV that would cost about $12,000 to make and sell for roughly $16,000. He said among other steps, US automakers can bring robotics and 3D parts printing more aggressively into factories. We are being beaten and we're being beaten badly. We need to do something differently. His other idea was to let utilities pay for and own the battery, reducing the car's sticker price. He said the utilities would go for it thanks to vehicle-to-grid, which is not a widespread technology yet. If I've learned anything the past few years, it's that our supply chain in the United States for batteries and resources for the batteries is nowhere near being ready for something like this. Our labor costs here in America are just too high relative to the rest of the world.

这还不是最终定案，但Brookfield公司正出价102亿美元购买Nioin的股份。如果交易成功，Nioin将获得一笔巨额现金注入，这家公司目前与Tesla合作非常愉快。能源部技术孵化器的项目经理表示，美国企业家应该停止担忧，开始研发接近比亚迪价格的电动汽车。该经理建议举办一场竞赛，开发一款高质量的美国制造电动汽车，制造成本约为12000美元，售价大约为16000美元。他还说，美国汽车制造商可以更积极地将机器人技术和3D打印零部件引入工厂。我们正在被打败，而且是惨败。我们需要有所改变。他的另一个想法是让公用事业公司支付并拥有电池，这样可以降低汽车的标价。他表示，公用事业公司会支持这种做法，因为车网互动技术虽然还不普及，但有潜力。如果我这几年学到了一点东西，那就是美国的电池和电池资源供应链根本没法应对这样的需求。相比世界其他地方，我们在美国的劳动力成本实在是太高了。

And third, I'm not sure what the demand would be if it's going to be a super small little car that only gets 100 or 200 miles of range. America likes big and excess, so something like this seems like at least a few years away at the earliest. This one explains a lot about right now and where we're headed the next few years. Jim Farley said their hybrid models have become more profitable than their gasoline-powered counterparts. He said one year ago we were not covering the cost premium for hybrids with the price that customers paid us. We are now. Customers are voting. They like these in between solutions. Ford's US hybrid sales jumped 47% this year through April, and Farley said one out of every four F-150 sold today is a hybrid. Ford said each of its North American nameplates will include a hybrid variant by the end of the decade. He said I think we should stop talking about it as a transitional technology on the power train side. It's 25 years old now.

第三，我不确定如果它是一辆只有100或200英里续航的小型车，需求会是怎样。美国喜欢大和奢华，所以这样的东西起码需要几年时间才能出现。这很好地解释了当前的情况以及我们在未来几年的走向。Jim Farley说，他们的混合动力车型已经比汽油车变得更有利可图。他说，一年前我们无法通过顾客支付的价格来覆盖混合动力车的成本，现在我们做到了。顾客在投票，他们喜欢这些中间的解决方案。今年到四月为止，福特在美国的混合动力车销量增长了47%，并且Farley说，现在每四辆售出的F-150中就有一辆是混合动力车。福特表示，到本十年末，每一款北美车型都会有混合动力版本。他说，我认为我们应该停止将其视为一种过渡技术，它已经有25年的历史了。

He added a diversified lineup is one factor that automakers need for future success. Consolidation is likely in the coming years as Chinese manufacturers threaten to up end the market with low-cost EVs. I don't think everyone makes it through. On Ford's Skunk Works team in California working on their low-cost EV platform, he said we have to get to a radically different engineered product with a different supply chain that's manufactured radically more efficient. That's a necessity. Now we have Ford's most profitable powertrain being a hybrid. We have customer demand for hybrids high for whatever reason, so the development of full EVs at Ford is likely to fade into the background for the next few years. They'll continue to say publicly they're still working hard on full EVs and how important they are, but watch the vehicles they release for the next few years.

他说，一个多元化的产品阵容是汽车制造商未来成功的因素之一。随着中国制造商通过低成本电动车威胁市场，未来几年内可能会出现整合。我认为并不是所有公司都会成功。针对福特在加州Skunk Works团队正在研发的低成本电动车平台，他表示，我们必须打造一款在工程设计和供应链上都截然不同的产品，而且制造过程必须更加高效。这是必需的。现在，福特最赚钱的动力系统是混合动力。不知道什么原因，客户对混合动力车的需求很高，所以福特在未来几年可能会淡化全电动车的研发。他们会继续在公开场合表示，他们依然在努力开发全电动车，并且强调其重要性，但你可以注意未来几年他们发布的车辆。

Ashley and I just got back from a little mini road trip this past weekend. FSD autopilot on the highway is awesome. To adjust the speed with the scroll wheel and using the manual turn signal to change lanes was super responsive and smooth, but Zippy was due for a quick clean and phantic. The sponsor of this episode has another new vacuum, the V10 Apex. Don't forget Father's Day is right around the corner, so if you're looking for gift options, this could be a solution. With the V10, if you wanted a bit more power, yet with the flexibility and options of something smaller, the V10 may be a good option. It easily expands and folds down, it charges with USB-C and has an LCD screen. There are two power settings and it's really easy to empty the canister and to change the filter. Plus it comes with all of the attachments you may expect from a phantic product. If you haven't grabbed one already, my favorite phantic product is still the X8 tire inflator which I classify as a must-own if you drive and my family agrees. And if you're looking for a smaller vacuum solution, phantic still has the V8 Apex with all of the attachments and plenty of suction power. If you'd like, you can check the links below in the description to get between 23 and 34% off these phantic products. As always, thank you for considering supporting the channel in this way.

Ashley 和我刚刚从上个周末的小型公路旅行回来。高速公路上的FSD自动驾驶真的很棒。使用滚轮调整速度和手动转向灯变道都非常灵敏和流畅，不过 Zippy 需要快速清洁和保养。本期节目的赞助商带来了一款新的吸尘器——V10 Apex。不要忘记父亲节快到了，如果正在寻找礼物选择，这可能是一个不错的解决方案。如果你想要更大一点的吸力，同时需要小型设备的灵活性和多样性，V10可能是一个不错的选择。它可以轻松扩展和折叠，使用USB-C充电，并具有LCD屏幕。它有两个功率设置，清空集尘罐和更换过滤器也非常方便。而且它还配备了所有你期望从phantic产品中得到的附件。如果你还没买，我最喜欢的phantic产品还是X8充气泵，我认为这是所有开车的人都应该拥有的，我的家人也同意。如果你在寻找更小的吸尘器解决方案，phantic还有一款带有全套附件且吸力强劲的V8 Apex。如果你有兴趣，可以查看下方描述中的链接，购买这些phantic产品最高可享23%到34%的折扣。像往常一样，感谢你以这种方式支持我们的频道。

From Reuters, Tesla is preparing to register its full self-driving software with authorities in China. They said Tesla is also considering selling the software as a monthly subscription. After Tesla successfully registers the software with China's Ministry of Industry and IT, it'll be able to have its employees conduct internal testing of FSD on public roads in China and then offer it as an upgrade to Chinese customers in the coming months. The CNEV Post is reporting that the monthly subscription price should be very similar to what it is in the United States.

据路透社报道，特斯拉正准备向中国有关部门申请注册其全自动驾驶软件。他们表示，特斯拉还在考虑将该软件以月度订阅的方式进行销售。一旦特斯拉成功在中国工业和信息化部注册该软件，就可以让其员工在中国的公共道路上进行内部测试，并在未来几个月内向中国客户提供升级服务。据CNEV Post报道，月度订阅价格应与美国的相差无几。

Tesla has already been offering the one-time purchase of FSD in China for roughly $800,800. Tesla also currently offers the enhanced autopilot for about half the price in China. It'll be interesting to watch in China if and when FSD gets official approval, how fast Tesla decides to roll it out to actual customers beyond just employee testing. For many reasons, they'll probably be a bit more cautious than with their rollouts in the United States, but with this related news story, you may remember that woman from China that stood on the car to protest Tesla.

特斯拉已经在中国提供一次性购买FSD（全自动驾驶）服务，价格大约为80.08万元。特斯拉目前还在中国提供增强自动驾驶功能，价格大约是FSD的一半。在中国，FSD是否能够获得官方批准，以及特斯拉何时会将其推广到实际客户（不仅限于员工测试），将是一个有趣的观察点。出于多种原因，他们可能会比在美国的推广更为谨慎。不过谈到相关新闻，可能你还记得之前有一个中国女性在车上站立抗议特斯拉的事件。

Finally, today, a court decided that she was guilty of defaming Tesla, she was ordered to apologize and to pay about $24,000. Now, plenty of brand damage has been done, but hopefully this will go to restore some of that. Back to Tesla's FSD in China, these are key developments because there were also reports that Tesla may license FSD to some Chinese customers and Huawei and X-Pang have said publicly they're already working on their own end-to-end neural nets. Holmar shared a good reminder, all Elon's 2018 Comp Plan does is give him the option to buy just south of 304 million shares of Tesla stock at a strike price of $23.34 from Tesla.

最终，今天法院裁定她诽谤特斯拉罪名成立，她被要求道歉并支付大约24,000美元的赔偿。尽管特斯拉的品牌已经遭受了不少损害，但希望这能有所补救。回到特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）在中国的情况，这些是重要的发展，因为还有报道称特斯拉可能会将FSD授权给一些中国客户，并且华为和小鹏汽车已经公开表示他们正在开发自己的端到端神经网络。Holmar提醒了一个很好的消息，马斯克的2018年薪酬计划只不过是让他有权以每股23.34美元的行权价购买接近3.04亿股特斯拉股票。

Thus, when it comes to Tesla's balance sheet, it's not like they're giving him cash, it would actually be Elon giving Tesla cash. Sawyer added, if Elon gets those options back, he has until 2028 to exercise them and once exercised, Elon cannot sell those shares for five years. To which, Elon said, that's a crucial point, the shares cannot be sold for five years, so it's impossible to cash out. I saw some people confused in the comments though, if Elon gets these options back, he could in theory exercise them right away and it's from when he exercises them that he can actually not sell those shares for five years.

因此，关于特斯拉的资产负债表，不是他们给埃隆现金，而是实际上埃隆给特斯拉现金。索耶补充说，如果埃隆拿回这些期权，他有时间到2028年去行使这些期权，一旦行使，埃隆在五年内不能卖出这些股票。对此，埃隆表示，这是一个关键点，股票五年内不能卖出，所以不可能立即套现。我在评论中看到一些人感到困惑，实际上，如果埃隆拿回这些期权，他理论上可以立即行使，从他行使那一刻开始，他在五年内不能卖出这些股票。

So whether he decides to exercise right when he gets them back or he has the option to wait to exercise until 2028. So, in that latter event, he wouldn't be able to sell those shares until 2033. But let's say he gets those options back in early 2025 and exercises them right away, that means he could actually sell them then in 2030. As they should be, Redwood Materials was named as one of the most 100 influential companies by time for 2024.

所以，无论他决定拿回股票期权后立即行权，还是选择等到2028年再行权。如果是后者，他要等到2033年才能卖出那些股份。但假设他在2025年初拿回期权并立即行权，这意味着他可以在2030年卖出这些股份。尽如人意，红木材料公司被《时代》杂志评为2024年最有影响力的100家公司之一。

We talk about auto accident deaths fairly often to highlight the importance of Tesla's FSD. Well, pedestrian deaths hit a 40 year high in 2022 with 7,500 people killed by drivers. That number is a 75% increase from 2010. According to a German source, Porsche cannot bring itself to build a large battery cell factory in Brandenburg. Porsche's board has its doubt as to whether the planned gigafactory for battery cells is necessary since many industry players are talking about oversupply.

我们经常谈论汽车事故致死事件，以突出特斯拉自动驾驶(FSD)的重要性。但行人死亡人数在2022年达到了40年来的最高点，有7500名行人被司机撞死。这个数字比2010年增加了75%。据一家德国消息来源称，保时捷无法下决心在勃兰登堡建造大型电池电池厂。保时捷董事会对计划中的电池工厂是否必要存在疑虑，因为许多行业人士正讨论供应过剩的问题。

It's not just Porsche though, as S-Volt and CATL have also folded plans for battery factories in Germany. CATL's decision was in part due to VW deciding to stop making EVs in Zwickow due to a lack of demand. Unfortunately, Berlin's fiscal woes that led to canceling those EV subsidies early is now having many unintended ripple effects. They said for battery makers, Germany's industrial electricity and personnel costs are considerably higher than those in Eastern Europe. A director of automotive research said those tariffs would artificially increase the price of electric cars for European consumers, and I've already heard that auto parts suppliers are stopping orders for EV production, and that combustion engine plants are being spruced up for a few more years.

不仅仅是保时捷，S-Volt 和宁德时代（CATL）也取消了在德国建立电池工厂的计划。CATL 的决定部分原因是大众决定停止在茨维考生产电动汽车，原因是需求不足。不幸的是，柏林财政问题导致提早取消电动汽车补贴，现在正出现许多意想不到的连锁反应。他们表示，对于电池制造商来说，德国的工业电费和人工成本明显高于东欧。一位汽车研究主管表示，这些关税将人为地提高欧洲消费者购买电动汽车的价格，我已经听说汽车零部件供应商正在停止电动汽车生产的订单，并且内燃机工厂正在被整修以再使用几年。

We now have VW dealers test driving some Chinese EVs to see what they're up against. Across Europe, analysts in the region are expecting EVs to broadly stall out in the region this year after a strong run of market share gains, and the organizer of these test drives said it's not that we're saying there's an insurmountable competition, but you can understand why a customer who has a choice like this in their potential shopping cart will think about it. But his main takeaway was saying people sometimes think these are low quality or cheap vehicles, and that's where you have to say no, these are full-fledged high-quality cars.

我们现在让大众汽车经销商试驾一些中国的电动车，看看他们在竞争中面临什么。在整个欧洲，分析师们预计，在经历了一段强劲的市场份额增长后，今年电动车在该地区的增长将大致停滞。组织试驾活动的人表示，这并不是说有无法逾越的竞争，但我们可以理解，为什么当顾客在他们的购物车里有这样的选择时，会考虑这些车。而他的主要观点是，有时人们认为这些是低质量或廉价的车辆，但必须说这些完全是高质量的汽车。

Not that this matters a whole lot, but Carsley shared this picture of a brand new Model 3 sitting in a lot waiting for delivery with this sticker on the seat. If you zoom in, you'll find the word Highland right on the sticker. Elon has said in the past the Highland name was not real, but this sticker would imply otherwise, it may be real for at least somebody inside of Tesla.

这可能并不重要，但Carsley分享了一张照片，显示一辆全新的Model 3停在场地里等待交付，座位上还有这样一个贴纸。如果你放大来看，会在贴纸上发现 “Highland” 这个词。Elon之前说过Highland这个名字不是真的，但这个贴纸似乎暗示着它至少对特斯拉内部的某些人来说是真实存在的。

Tesla has completed the addition of another one megawatt solar capacity project at Gig and Nevada. The rooftop construction is complete, but the project is not commissioned yet. Tesla is also reported to have two other solar arrays totalling 1.9 megawatts each that are under construction at Gigataxis, and Tesla has a third one megawatt solar installation taking place at the Austin HQ. All of these Austin projects are under construction, but less than 50% complete.

特斯拉已经在内华达州的超级工厂完成了一个新的1兆瓦太阳能项目的建设。屋顶的施工已经完成，但项目尚未投入使用。据报道，特斯拉在德州超级工厂还有两个总共1.9兆瓦的太阳能阵列正在建设中，此外，特斯拉在奥斯汀总部还有一个1兆瓦的太阳能项目正在进行。这些奥斯汀的项目都在建设中，但完成度不到50%。

You may recall though, back in 2017 Tesla's plan was to have a 70 megawatt solar farm powering Gig and Nevada. Seven years later and they're less than one-tenth of the way there. Tesla stock closed the day at $178.79 up 1.48%, while the Nasdaq was down 1.08%. It was another lower volume day for Tesla trading about 16 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days.

你可能还记得，早在2017年，特斯拉计划建设一个70兆瓦的太阳能农场，为内华达州的超级工厂供电。七年过去了，他们只完成了计划的不到十分之一。特斯拉的股票当天收盘价为178.79美元，上涨了1.48%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了1.08%。当天的交易量较低，特斯拉的交易量大约为1600万股，低于过去30天的平均交易量。

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