首页  >>  来自播客: The Limiting Factor 更新   反馈

Chinese Automakers are Going Global // How will Tesla Compete?

发布时间 2024-05-29 21:52:26    来源


Chinese automakers are gearing up to go global and inundate western markets with low cost EVs. Will they do the same in the ...



Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers like BYD can produce EVs in China for less than half the cost that they can be produced in Western countries. Now that they've started achieving scale in China, the next obvious move is to export those vehicles to Western markets, which has rightfully triggered panic in Western automakers. Given that the largest auto market in the world outside of China is the US, it naturally raises the question, what strategies do Chinese automakers have to enter the US market? And if they do, how will Tesla and other US manufacturers compete with an onslaught of increasingly competitive low-cost Chinese EVs? And turning the question on its head, how will Chinese companies fare against competition from Tesla, which is positioning itself to go after the bread and butter of Chinese automakers, which is low-cost vehicles? Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, YouTube members and Twitter subscribers, as well as RebellionAir.com. They specialize in helping investors manage concentrated positions. RebellionAir can help with covered calls, risk management, and creating a money master plan from your financial first principles. Additionally, a special thanks to Larry Goldberg for reviewing the video. If you don't follow Larry on X, it's worth doing so. He has a wealth of insights about Tesla and business in general as a successful serial entrepreneur and investor.
欢迎回来,大家好,我是Jordan Geisigee,这里是《The Limiting Factor》。中国的电动车制造商如比亚迪,可以在中国以不到西方国家一半的成本生产电动车。现在他们在中国达到了规模化生产,下一步显而易见就是将这些车辆出口到西方市场,这也合理地引发了西方汽车制造商的恐慌。鉴于中国之外的全球最大汽车市场是美国,自然引出了一个问题:中国汽车制造商有哪些策略进入美国市场?如果他们成功了,特斯拉和其他美国制造商将如何应对来自中国成本低廉、竞争力日益增强的电动车的冲击?反过来看,中国公司将如何与特斯拉竞争,后者正准备进军中国制造商的核心市场——低成本汽车?在我们开始之前,我要特别感谢我的Patreon支持者、YouTube会员和Twitter订阅者,还有RebellionAir.com。他们专注于帮助投资者管理集中头寸,提供包括备兑期权、风险管理以及从财务第一原则出发制定理财大师计划等服务。此外,特别感谢Larry Goldberg审阅本视频。如果你还没有在X平台上关注Larry,值得去关注一下。他作为一个成功的连续创业者和投资者,对特斯拉和商业领域有着丰富的见解。

Let's start with how imports of low-cost Chinese EVs could affect Tesla in the US auto market. To do that, we first need to understand the tariffs and trade agreements that are in place. Only a few days ago, the US increased its tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100%. Let's take a look at how that affects the price of a China-made BYD seal versus the US-made Model 3 as an example. I'm picking these two companies and vehicles because they're the two most competitive EV manufacturers in the world and because the seal and the Model 3 are in the same vehicle class and roughly the same size. Let's take a closer look. A China-made rear-wheel drive BYD seal with the equivalent of about 315 miles of EPA range and a 0-60 of around 7 seconds costs about $28,000. A US-made rear-wheel drive Tesla Model 3 with 272 miles of EPA range and a 5.8 second 0-60 costs $39,000. That is, each vehicle has strengths and weaknesses, but the seal is quite a bit cheaper. However, if we add the 100% tariff to the seal and let's say $1,000 for shipping it across the Pacific, that would come to a total of $57,000, making it about $18,000 more expensive than the Model 3.
让我们先来讨论一下低成本中国电动汽车进口如何影响特斯拉在美国汽车市场的地位。要探讨这个问题,首先需要了解当前的关税和贸易协定。就在几天前,美国对中国电动汽车的关税提高到了100%。我们以中国制造的比亚迪海豹和美国制造的特斯拉Model 3为例,来看看这一关税如何影响它们的价格。我选择这两家公司和车型,是因为它们是全球最具竞争力的电动汽车制造商,并且海豹和Model 3属于同一车辆级别,尺寸也差不多。让我们仔细看看。中国制造的后轮驱动比亚迪海豹,EPA续航约315英里,0-60英里加速时间约7秒,售价约为28,000美元。而美国制造的后轮驱动特斯拉Model 3,EPA续航为272英里,0-60英里加速时间为5.8秒,售价为39,000美元。也就是说,每辆车都有优点和缺点,但海豹便宜很多。然而,如果我们给海豹增加100%的关税,再加上大约1,000美元的跨太平洋运输费用,总费用将达到57,000美元,比Model 3贵了大约18,000美元。

That is, the 100% tariff is far more help than Tesla needs to compete with Chinese imports. So why was the tariff increased to 100%? It was to protect legacy automakers, but even 100% tariff on Chinese imports may not be enough to help legacy auto survive. That's because so far, they're fundamentally unable to produce an EV that's desirable, low cost, and profitable. Ford, for example, is losing $130,000 on each EV they produce. I use Ford's numbers because they're the only legacy manufacturer reporting their losses, but their losses are likely fairly representative of what other US automakers are experiencing. With the 100% tariff effectively blocking direct imports from China to the US, what could be the next chest move for a Chinese automaker like BYD to enter the US market? They could build a factory in Mexico, that would achieve three things. First, thanks to lower wages, it would allow them to access lower production costs than if they'd built a factory in the US. Second, by building factories in Mexico, they could take advantage of the US MCA, which is the free trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada.
也就是说,100%的关税远超特斯拉在与中国进口车竞争时所需的帮助。那么,为什么关税被提高到100%?这是为了保护传统汽车制造商,但即使对中国进口车征收100%的关税,也可能不足以帮助传统汽车制造商生存下去。这是因为目前为止,他们根本无法生产出既受欢迎、成本低廉又有利润的电动汽车。例如,福特公司每生产一辆电动汽车就亏损13万美元。我之所以用福特的数据,是因为他们是唯一一家公布亏损情况的传统制造商,但这些亏损数据可能也大致代表了其他美国汽车制造商的情况。 既然100%的关税有效地阻止了中国汽车直接进口到美国,中国汽车制造商如比亚迪进入美国市场的下一步棋可能是什么?他们可以在墨西哥建厂,这样可以实现三件事。首先,由于劳动力成本较低,可以使他们获得比在美国建厂更低的生产成本。其次,通过在墨西哥建厂,他们可以利用美墨加协议(USMCA),即美国、墨西哥和加拿大之间的自由贸易协定。

That would allow them to sidestep the 100% tariff that would be incurred by directly importing from China. Third, it would help them meet the requirements for the $7,500 customer tax credit. If BYD gained those advantages, would it allow them to turn the tables on Tesla and outcompete them? In my opinion, no. That's because in order to avoid tariffs through the US MCA free trade agreement and to access the $7,500 customer tax credit, BYD would have to meet the requirements of each. For the US MCA, the primary requirement is that 75% of the vehicle content would have to be made in North America. For the $7,500 customer tax credit, there are a number of requirements, but the two most relevant for this video are as follows.
这将使他们能够避开直接从中国进口时需缴纳的100%关税。其次,这将帮助他们满足7500美元客户税收抵免的要求。如果比亚迪获得这些优势,他们能否借此反败为胜,超越特斯拉呢?在我看来,不行。那是因为为了通过美墨加(US MCA)自由贸易协定避免关税并获得7500美元的客户税收抵免,比亚迪必须满足每一项要求。对于美墨加协定,主要要求是75%的车辆内容必须在北美生产。对于7500美元的客户税收抵免,有很多要求,但对本视频最相关的有两个。

First, the critical mineral requirement, which awards half of the $7,500. It states that a certain portion of the raw materials and the battery have to be mined or processed in the US or in a country that has a free trade agreement with the US. Second, the battery component requirement, which awards the other half of the $7,500 tax credit. It states that a certain portion of the finished materials and the battery have to be manufactured or assembled in the US or North America. As some people will point out, there's also, of course, a $45 per kilowatt hour manufacturing tax credit for batteries. But that only applies to battery cells and a tax assembled in the United States, not Mexico. So they would have to build a separate battery factory in the US to access those credits.

What all this means is that in order for Chinese companies to become competitive selling vehicles in the US, they would also have to rebuild most of their supply chain in Mexico, the US, and in countries the US has free trade agreements with. That means their production costs would essentially become the same as any other vehicle factory in Mexico that has similar manufacturing efficiency. In other words, by building vehicles in Mexico for the US market, Chinese automakers would lose most, if not all, the production cost advantages they have from vehicles they make in China. And of course, on that note, Tesla intends to start building vehicles out of Mexico in the next year or two.

That factory is slated to use their next generation unboxed manufacturing lines that, on a like for like basis, could reduce the cost of manufacturing a vehicle by at least 13.5% compared to any other manufacturer with a similar supply chain. That is, even with a factory in Mexico, I don't view BYD as a threat to Tesla in the US auto market. In fact, as we'll see in a moment, BYD has just as much to fear from Tesla as Tesla does from BYD. Additionally, another factor worth taking into account is that vehicle profits will increasingly come from software rather than hardware. If Tesla solves full self-driving, they could sell their vehicles at cost and earn most of their profits from services rather than the hardware. That would really put BYD back on its heels because BYD has said that full self-driving is basically impossible, which means that if it is possible, which looks increasingly likely, they're leaving the field wide open for Tesla.
那家工厂计划使用他们的下一代无箱制造生产线,在同等条件下,这可以使制造一辆汽车的成本比任何其他拥有类似供应链的制造商至少降低13.5%。也就是说,即使在墨西哥有一家工厂,我也不认为比亚迪会对特斯拉在美国汽车市场构成威胁。事实上,正如我们即将看到的,比亚迪与其说威胁到特斯拉,不如说特斯拉也同样让比亚迪感到威胁。 此外,还有一个需要考虑的因素是,汽车利润将越来越多地来自软件而不是硬件。如果特斯拉解决了完全自动驾驶问题,他们可以按成本价出售汽车,并从服务而非硬件中赚取大部分利润。这将使比亚迪陷入困境,因为比亚迪曾表示完全自动驾驶基本上是不可能的,这意味着如果它可能实现,而看起来越来越有可能实现,他们就会在这一领域完全让位于特斯拉。

Before we move on, it's worth addressing a counter-argument that might come up in the comments. If we look at another example of where Tesla and BYD have localized their supply chain in the same country, China, BYD appears to be fundamentally more competitive. That's because the BYD seal in China costs about $28,000 as compared to the $34,000 for a similar Model 3 produced in China. A $6,000 difference. Wouldn't that put holes in the argument that Tesla would be competitive with BYD if both localized their supply chains to Mexico? In my view, there are four factors to take into account here.
在继续之前,我们需要回应一下可能在评论中出现的反驳观点。如果我们看另一个特斯拉和比亚迪在同一国家(中国)本地化供应链的例子,比亚迪似乎在根本上更具竞争力。这是因为在中国,比亚迪海豹的售价约为28,000美元,而在中国生产的类似Model 3售价为34,000美元,相差6,000美元。这难道不会削弱特斯拉在本地化供应链到墨西哥后能与比亚迪竞争的论点吗?在我看来,有四个因素需要考虑。

First, BYD's net profit margin in Q3 of last year was 6.42%, whereas for Tesla, it was 7.94%. However, BYD's net profit margin includes both pure electric vehicles and also plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Pure battery electric vehicles are more difficult to produce profitably than hybrids, so it's likely BYD's EV business is running near-break even, or potentially even losing money. That's as opposed to Tesla, which only sells EVs. That means there's likely room for Tesla to cut the price of their Model 3 and still be profitable, whereas BYD would likely be losing money if they did the same. To account for the fact that Tesla is likely earning a higher margin, let's reduce the price of the China-made Model 3 to $32,000, meaning the price difference between a Tesla seal and a Model 3 using a similar supply chain is more like $4,000 rather than $6,000, which is probably conservative.
首先,去年第三季度,比亚迪的净利润率为6.42%,而特斯拉的净利润率为7.94%。但需要注意的是,比亚迪的净利润率包括了纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车。相较于混动车型,纯电动车型的盈利难度更大,所以比亚迪的纯电动车业务可能仅仅持平,甚至可能亏损。相比之下,特斯拉只生产和销售纯电动车型,这意味着特斯拉有空间下调Model 3的价格并仍然保持盈利,而如果比亚迪采取相同的策略,可能会亏损。鉴于特斯拉可能拥有更高的利润率,我们假设将中国制造的Model 3价格降低至32,000美元,这样一来,特斯拉Model 3和比亚迪Seal在使用类似供应链情况下的价差更像是4,000美元,而不是6,000美元,虽然这是一个相对保守的估计。

The second factor is that the Tesla Model 3 gets better reviews. That's because it's overall a better vehicle. It has 50% more cargo volume in the same form factor. Can handle 55-66% more charging power? Tesla's better safety assist features has much better handling and slightly better interior quality and appeal. That is, the Tesla arguably provides $4,000 more in value for the extra $4,000 in price. Third, Tesla's take rate for full self-driving in China is low, because it's still not useful enough to appeal to Chinese consumers. That's likely to change with newer versions of the software.
第二个因素是特斯拉Model 3的评价更好。这是因为它整体上是一款更好的车辆。它在相同的形态下拥有50%更多的货物空间,并且能处理55-66%更多的充电功率。特斯拉拥有更好的安全辅助功能,更好的操控性以及稍微更优质的内饰和吸引力。也就是说,特斯拉在价格增加4,000美元的情况下,提供了约4,000美元的额外价值。第三,特斯拉在中国的完全自动驾驶选配率较低,因为它目前的实用性还不足以吸引中国消费者。不过随着新版软件的推出,这种情况可能会有所改变。

That is, much like I said above for the US market, full self-driving may allow Tesla to reduce the price of the vehicle hardware and earn most of the profits on software instead, which will take years for BYD to replicate. So overall, at first glance, although it appears that BYD has a big cost advantage in China, it would be more accurate to say that BYD is more willing to lose money on each vehicle to grow market share and that each company is in a slightly different value bracket. I expect a similar dynamic to play out for vehicles produced by BYD and Tesla in Mexico that are headed to the US market, with the key difference being that Tesla's Mexico factory will use the unboxed process.

If that's able to save at least 13.5% on the cost of production, that would make the price floor of a Model 3 using that process the same or lower than the price of a BYD seal. But of course, Tesla's not expected to build the Model 3 in Mexico, but rather their next-generation compact vehicle platform, which potentially includes a robo-taxi and a low-cost vehicle that's sold directly to the public. This is where things get interesting, and it's why I said earlier that BYD has just as much to fear from Tesla as Tesla does from BYD.
如果这样能至少节省13.5%的生产成本,那么用这个工艺制造的Model 3的价格底线将会和比亚迪海豹的价格一样甚至更低。当然,特斯拉预计不会在墨西哥制造Model 3,而是他们的下一代紧凑型车辆平台,这可能包括一款自动驾驶出租车和一款直接卖给公众的低成本车辆。这就是事情变得有趣的地方,也是我之前说比亚迪和特斯拉相互竞争,两者对彼此都有所顾忌的原因所在。

To understand why, let's take a look at the broader picture, where at a pivotal time in the long-term business strategy of both Tesla and BYD, which might become a great business case study in the future, Tesla's strategy for the past 15 years has been to move from larger, higher priced vehicles to smaller, lower priced vehicles, whereas BYD has always been considered more of a budget option that's working towards being competitive with the best brands on the planet, like Tesla. We're now getting to the point where BYD and Tesla are crossing over into what each company considers their bread and butter.

So will BYD outcompete Tesla in the entry-level luxury and luxury market, or will Tesla outcompete BYD in the budget vehicle market? If we look at the sales of the BYD seal versus the Tesla Model 3, so far a pattern hasn't yet emerged because the seal is a relatively new vehicle. Bear in mind when looking at the graph on screen that in the third quarter of last year, Tesla had to shut down and re-ramp production to refresh the Model 3, and that BYD could have experienced extra demand for the seal while it was the new hot thing on the market at the end of 2022.
那么,比亚迪会在入门级豪华和豪华车市场上超过特斯拉,还是特斯拉会在经济型车辆市场上超过比亚迪呢?如果我们对比比亚迪海豹和特斯拉Model 3的销量,到目前为止还没有明显的趋势,因为海豹是一款相对较新的车型。请注意,在画面上的图表中,去年第三季度,特斯拉不得不关闭并重新启动生产,以更新Model 3,而比亚迪的海豹在2022年底由于是市场上的新热门车型,也可能经历了额外的需求。

That is, it's too early to say how Model 3 sales have been affected by the BYD seal. But that says something in itself. A common strategic play for Chinese companies is to trade profits to take market share, which allows them to create scale and reduce costs, and eventually leads to market domination and profits. But despite BYD's entry into the entry-level luxury vehicle market and likely selling their vehicles at or below cost, Model 3 sales have held up well. However, what happens when Tesla introduces more affordable vehicles that, on a like-for-like basis, cost at least 13.5% less thanks to Tesla's unboxed manufacturing process? If Tesla delivers, the result will be vehicles that cost up to half as much to make as a Tesla Model 3, but still offer Tesla's typical high-quality appeal.
也就是说,目前还为时尚早,看不出比亚迪海豹对Model 3销售的影响。但这本身就说明了一些问题。中国公司常见的战略手段是以牺牲利润来换取市场份额,这样可以扩大规模并降低成本,最终实现市场主导和盈利。然而,尽管比亚迪进入了入门级豪华车市场,并可能以成本价或低于成本价销售其车辆,Model 3的销售情况依然表现良好。但是,当特斯拉推出更实惠的车型,并且由于其无框制造工艺,使得这些车在质量相同的情况下成本至少低13.5%时,会发生什么?如果特斯拉顺利交付,这些车的制造成本将仅为Model 3的一半,但依然具有特斯拉典型的高质量吸引力。

That is, Tesla could set new standards for value at a lower price point, which is exactly what the Model 3 did about five years ago. It changed the vehicle market by democratizing features and performance that you'd expect out of a more expensive vehicle, providing desirability and affordability in the same package. That's a trick no other company can pull off quite like Tesla, and that's why I said that BYD has reason to be fearful of Tesla.
也就是说,特斯拉能够在更低的价格点设定新的价值标准,这正是大约五年前Model 3所做的事情。它通过将高端车辆的特性和性能大众化,改变了汽车市场,使得特斯拉的车既有吸引力又能负担得起。没有其他公司能像特斯拉那样做到这一点,这也是我为什么说比亚迪有理由害怕特斯拉的原因。

Tesla's just as fierce a competitor as BYD, and the bulk of the vehicle market is at the budget end, where BYD has typically dominated. With all that said, for the time being, a serious all-out competition between BYD and Tesla is likely still a few years away. That's because the greatest market opportunity for EV companies is still to take market share from internal combustion vehicles, because EVs still have a fairly low penetration rate in the overall auto market. BYD and Tesla will increasingly be in direct competition with each other as the decade progresses, but even when that does happen, I think it's safe to say they won't be putting each other out of business. Each company has its own strengths and weaknesses, so they'll coexist with varying levels of dominance in each market and product category.

Before we move on, it's worth making a few notes on Europe. Most vehicles play a large role in the European auto market, and neither Tesla nor BYD are European brands, so they don't have a home court advantage. However, the European automakers don't seem to be putting up much of a fight in the EV space. So, in my view, it's anyone's game. But if Tesla can repeat the performance of the Model Y, which is the best-selling vehicle in Europe of any kind, and introduce a more affordable or compact vehicle, they'll be the one to beat. Coming back to the US market, earlier I said that besides Tesla, US automakers are unable to produce competitive, profitable EVs. But what about in the future?
在继续之前,有必要谈谈欧洲市场。大多数车型在欧洲汽车市场中扮演重要角色,而特斯拉和比亚迪都不是欧洲品牌,因此它们没有主场优势。然而,欧洲汽车制造商在电动汽车领域似乎并没有展开激烈的竞争。所以在我看来,这是谁都有机会的市场。但如果特斯拉能够重现Model Y的表现(Model Y是欧洲所有车型中销量最好的),并推出更实惠或更紧凑的车型,他们将是最有竞争力的。在回到美国市场时,我之前提到,除了特斯拉,美国汽车制造商在生产有竞争力且有盈利能力的电动汽车方面存在困难。但未来会怎样呢?

I don't see any other automaker in North America, foreign or domestic being able to seriously compete with the likes of BYD and Tesla in the next 3-5 years. That's because for the most part, they're pulling back on their EV plans rather than making the commitments and changes necessary to become competitive. Some companies, particularly Ford, are making plans to address the challenge posed by China with smaller and lower cost vehicles. But the question is, if they can't make luxury EVs profitably, how can they expect to make a compact budget vehicle profitably? I just don't see that happening any time in the next few years.

In the meantime, their best hope is high tariffs and other punitive measures to keep any Chinese competition out of the US until they work out how to build a desirable EV profitably. But if the political winds change or if Chinese companies find a reliable and stable path around the tariffs to enter the US market, the one last bastion where auto manufacturers in the US have a good chance of surviving is in pickup trucks. Just because by the time that BYD and Tesla master conventional pickup truck designs, companies like GM and Ford will have learned enough to produce electric pickup trucks profitably. At least I hope they do.

In summary, China's gearing up to flood Western markets with low-cost EVs. For the US specifically, there are four strategies that Chinese automakers could pursue. First, they could ship vehicles directly from China, where the production cost is much lower. But then they would have to pay 100% tariffs. Second, they could build the vehicles in the US to sidestep the tariffs. But given the high cost of labor in the US, they would struggle to make low-cost vehicles, which tends to be their biggest strategic advantage. Third, they could build their vehicle factories in Mexico to take advantage of the abundance of low-cost labor there. That would also allow them to sidestep tariffs through the free trade agreement that the US has with Mexico, and allow the Chinese vehicles to qualify for Inflation Reduction Act tax credits.
总的来说,中国正准备向西方市场大量出口低成本电动车。针对美国市场, Chinese汽车制造商可以采取四种策略。第一,可以从中国直接运送电动车,因中国的生产成本较低。但这样一来,他们需要支付100%的关税。第二,可以选择在美国建厂生产电动车,以绕开关税。然而,由于美国劳动力成本高,他们在制造低成本电动车方面会遇到困难,而低成本正是他们最大的战略优势。第三,可以在墨西哥建厂,利用当地丰富的低成本劳动力。这不仅能避免关税,还能通过美国与墨西哥之间的自由贸易协定,使中国电动车符合《通货膨胀削减法案》的税收抵免资格。

However, that would require them to not just build assembly plants in Mexico, but also rebuild their entire supply chain, which may eliminate all or most of the production cost advantages they have over Tesla and other US automakers. Fourth, given the adversarial relationship between the US and China, Chinese automakers may just choose to avoid the US market for the time being, rather than taking the huge financial risk of relocalizing their supply chains to meet free trade and subsidy requirements. Regardless of which strategy Chinese automakers pursue, Tesla's in a highly competitive position. They continue to be at least three to five years ahead of every other automaker in terms of production technology.

Continue to reduce the cost of goods sold for their vehicles, and in the future, they may be in a position to sell their vehicles at cost and earn profits from the software instead of the hardware. As for other US automakers, so far, they're simply not able to produce EVs profitably. Tesla's existence alone is eating into their market share, and with Chinese automakers chomping at the bit to enter Western markets, it's a double whammy. If they're going to survive, they have to either move fast to drive down prices, which Ford is trying to do, retreat to the pickup truck market, or rely on tariffs to effectively block Chinese imports, which may not be an effective long-term solution.

If you enjoyed this video, please consider supporting the channel by using the links in the description. Also, consider following me on X. I often use X as a testbed for sharing ideas, and X subscribers like my Patreon supporters generally get access to my videos a week early. On that note, a special thanks to Jeff Mick-Junken, Asriel 1575, my YouTube members, X subscribers, and all the other patrons listed in the credits. I appreciate all of your support, and thanks for tuning in.
如果您喜欢这个视频,请考虑通过描述中的链接来支持这个频道。另外,也可以考虑在 X 上关注我。我经常在 X 上试验分享想法,而 X 的订阅者和我的 Patreon 支持者通常可以比其他人提前一周看到我的视频。特别感谢 Jeff Mick-Junken、Asriel 1575、我的 YouTube 会员、X 订阅者以及片尾字幕中提到的所有赞助者。感谢你们的支持,谢谢收看。