US Can't Love Taiwan Too Much, Former CIA Official Says - YouTube

Taiwan quite timely, we'll get to that in a moment. But set the stage. We're coming off some pretty high profile visits, high level visits. Secretary Yellen was in Beijing. The identity blink in there as well. Is this relationship, while complex, as stable as one can reasonably hope? I think it is. I would call it uncomfortable coexistence. I think we're going to have strategic competition for a great length of time over things like technology, values, global south, economic, political.

台湾的问题非常及时，我们稍后会详细讨论。但先铺垫一下背景。最近有一些非常高调的访问。在北京，财政部长耶伦进行了访问。而且布林肯也在那里。这段关系虽然复杂，但是否稳定到让人可以合理地抱有希望？我认为是的。我会称之为“不舒服的共存”。我认为我们将在科技、价值观、全球南方、经济和政治等方面进行长期的战略竞争。

We are in a long-term strategic competition with the Chinese, and it's inevitable. The two greatest economic powers in the world, now really the two great military powers in the world, we inevitably are in this position. But that doesn't mean war. And I think Americans are very clear, American military leaders, and American political leaders. We're not looking for war with China. But we do compete, and our values are different. And we do have different ideologies, and that is just a reality that we're all going to have to live with.

我们与中国正处于长期的战略竞争中，这是不可避免的。世界上最大的两个经济体，现在实际上也是世界上最大的两个军事大国，我们必然会处于这样的竞争中。但这并不意味着战争。我认为美国人很清楚，美国的军事领袖和政治领袖也很清楚，我们并不寻求与中国开战。但我们确实在竞争，我们的价值观不同，我们的意识形态也不一样。这是我们都必须面对的现实。

That takes us into the Taiwan conversation. You mentioned war. The US has said it's not interested in war. The Chinese have also said it's not something they want. Why do we keep talking about it then? Because there is a danger here. And the danger is that if Beijing were to ever feel that peaceful unification is impossible, then the political leadership in Beijing would be under pressure to do something about this situation. I do worry that William Ly and his inaugural address went too far. I think he provoked Beijing a little bit. The fact that he did not say that negotiations would be under the principle of the Republic of China Constitution was a dangerous thing to say.

这引导我们进入有关台湾的话题。你提到了战争。美国已经表示它不感兴趣于战争。中国也说它不想要战争。那么为什么我们还在讨论呢？因为这里存在一个危险。危险在于，如果北京觉得和平统一不可能实现，那么北京的政治领导层将面临采取行动的压力。我担心赖清德在他的就职演说中走得太远了。我认为他有点激怒了北京。特别是他没有提到谈判将在《中华民国宪法》的原则下进行，这是一个很危险的表态。

Because it gets away from the one China concept. So I worry that we are in a little more tense period that Beijing and Washington are going to have to care to fully manage William Ly. Washington can't love Taiwan too much. There is a danger with all of these congressmen and senators loving China and Taiwan that the leadership in Taiwan might get the sense that they can move further. And I think that's very dangerous. The status quo is wonderful. My president, when I served him George Bush, established the principle of unilateral changes to the status quo by either side. I think that's the perfect position. Taiwan gets a certain degree of independence. Beijing is assured that the United States isn't going to support independence. I think that's where we want to be.

因为这偏离了一个中国的概念。所以我担心我们正处在一个较为紧张的时期，北京和华盛顿需要小心仔细地处理好这种局面。威廉·莱（William Ly）说，华盛顿不能对台湾爱得太过火。所有这些国会议员和参议员对中国和台湾的热爱，可能会让台湾的领导层误认为他们可以走得更远。而我认为这非常危险。现状是很好的。乔治·布什（George Bush）总统在我为他服务时，确立了由任何一方单方面改变现状的原则。我认为这是一个完美的立场。台湾获得一定程度的独立，而北京则确信美国不会支持台湾独立。我认为这才是我们想要的局面。

If I remember correctly, it takes me into Donald Trump, possibly a 2.0. One of the first calls he took during his first few days in office was from the time, was then Taiwan president, Taiwan. What does that look like for this relation? For this status quo as you laid it out. I think there's some danger. I noticed that former Secretary Pompeo is in Taiwan a lot. I wonder what he is saying to the government on Taiwan about what would happen in a Trump administration. I think personally, Trump actually is not that engaged on the Taiwan question. I see Trump trying to make a deal with the Chinese over trade, actually. I think he's got this whole plan of 60% tariffs is really a way to stimulate the Chinese into talks.

如果我没记错的话，这让我联想到唐纳德·特朗普，可能是2.0版的。在他上任的最初几天之一，他接到的第一个电话就是来自台湾当时的总统台湾。这对这种关系意味着什么？对你所描述的现状有何影响？我认为其中存在一些危险。我注意到前国务卿蓬佩奥经常在台湾。我想知道他对台湾政府说了什么，关于特朗普政府会发生什么。我个人认为，特朗普实际上对台湾问题不太关注。我看到特朗普实际上在试图与中国就贸易问题达成协议。我认为他提出的60%关税计划实际上是一种刺激中国进行谈判的方式。

And I think we would actually find that Trump and Xi Jinping end up with a fairly good relationship. Is there room for an improvement in relations going into elections, six, let's call it five, six months away. No, in fact, it goes the other direction. If you look, what Biden right now is focused on is Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And all the anti-China steps that have been taken recently on tariffs, on EVs, it's all about those states. If Biden is gonna win, he has to take those three states. My friend, Charlie Cook, who's here as well, makes that case.

我认为我们实际上会发现特朗普和习近平最终建立了一个相当不错的关系。目前离选举还有五六个月的时间，这段期间中美关系有没有改善的空间呢？没有，事实上，只会朝相反的方向发展。你看，拜登现在关注的重点是威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州。最近在关税和电动车方面采取的所有反华措施，都是为了这些州。如果拜登要赢得选举，他必须拿下这三个州。我的朋友查理·库克也在这里，他也是这么认为的。

The only way Biden wins is through those three swing states. So he is doing everything possible to galvanize and get out the union vote. And that's an anti-China vote. And so that's why you're seeing these steps, and I would anticipate more of them before the election. What do you expect from the Chinese side? They probably know, they likely know, this is all political noise to us, to the US. I absolutely understand what's going on. They're not gonna overreact because it's politics. They'll wanna make a point, though. They will wanna make a point, and we're gonna see them do some things. We've already seen them threaten a few things. I think they'll have to, in part, to keep the Europeans from doing some of these things.

拜登赢得选举的唯一途径是通过那三个摇摆州。因此，他正在尽一切可能激励和动员工会的选民投票。而这是一个反华的票仓。这就是为什么你会看到这些行动，我预计在选举前还会有更多。这对中国有什么影响？他们可能知道，或者很可能知道，这对我们（美国）来说就是政治噪音。我完全理解发生了什么。他们不会过度反应，因为这是政治操作。但他们会想要表明立场。他们会想表明立场，我们会看到他们采取一些动作。我们已经看到他们发出了一些威胁。我认为他们必须这样做，部分原因是为了阻止欧洲的一些国家也采取类似行动。

Remember, on the EVs, there's the whole issue of Europe now, and what steps Europe might take. So I think the Chinese to scare the Europeans off a little bit, we're going to see them take some retaliatory steps. What does this mean for businesses? Certainly the cost of doing business has gone up. China plus one, reforring with de-risking. Companies are sometimes willing to make that investment if there is certainty ahead, if they can make that investment back.

记住，在电动汽车方面，现在有整个欧洲的问题，以及欧洲可能采取的步骤。所以我认为中国为了吓唬欧洲人，可能会采取一些报复性措施。这对企业意味着什么？肯定是增加了运营成本。“中国加一”策略，即在中国之外增加一个生产基地，以降低风险。如果未来有确定性，企业有时愿意进行这种投资，因为他们可以收回投资成本。

Does the level of uncertainty even get worse from here, or do you see things as bad as they can possibly get? I think a little more uncertainty, one of the problems is that on emerging technologies, the administration's going to keep looking at these, and keep ratcheting up. We're not at the end, because the thing about emerging technologies is they continue to move. And the administration's going to have to make decisions on new technologies and how much to restrict those.

从现在开始，不确定性会更严重吗，还是你认为情况已经糟到不能再糟了？我认为不确定性还会增加，其中一个问题是，对于新兴技术，政府将继续关注这些技术，并不断加大限制力度。我们还没有到达尽头，因为新兴技术仍在不断发展。政府将不得不对新技术做出决策，并决定对这些技术限制到什么程度。

And so the small yard, high fence, is going to get bigger. The yard's going to get bigger, the fence is going to get higher. That is an inevitability just because of the nature of technology. For those companies that rely on China, whether as an end market, as a part of their supply chain, China's maintained and said it's open for business, it says come in, we welcome foreign investments. But foreign investment has trickled through it.

因此，这个小院子和高围墙将会变得更大。院子会变大，围墙会变高。这是由于科技的本质所决定的不可避免的结果。对于那些依赖中国的公司，无论是作为终端市场还是供应链的一部分，中国一直声称并保持对外开放，欢迎外国投资。然而，外国投资却在逐渐减少。

It's not pre-pandemic level, it's just yet. What do you make up the messaging coming out of Beijing? What do you think they need to do to get that message across? Because there seems to be also this information, this asymmetry, this gap in between. The difficulty in Beijing right now is that there is this emphasis on national security. They have this problem with Xinjiang. I believe Xinjiang was an espionage case.

目前的情况还没有恢复到疫情前的水平。你怎么看北京传递出来的信息？你觉得他们需要做些什么才能更好地传达这个信息？因为似乎存在信息不对称和差距。目前北京面临的一个困难是他们非常重视国家安全。他们在新疆有问题。我认为新疆的情况是一起间谍案。

I think that's scared Beijing. And you can see that the MSS has been allowed to do much more publicly than it had before. So there's this tension between national security and wanting the West to come in. And it's going to be interesting to see how Beijing navigates that. I'm very interested, obviously, in the third plenum coming up. What that tells us about Chinese economic policies and about the opening to the West.

我认为那吓到了北京。而且你可以看到国家安全部被允许比以前公开进行更多活动。所以在国家安全和希望西方进入之间存在着紧张关系。北京将如何处理这种关系会很有趣。显然，我对即将召开的三中全会非常感兴趣。这次会议将告诉我们中国的经济政策以及对西方的开放程度。