Markets Weekly May 25, 2024

Hello my friends, today is May 25th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a choppy week in markets. The S&P 500 basically unchanged for the week. The Nasdaq though didn't make a new all time high. Gold also made a new all time high although it gave a lot of that back heading into the end of the week. So today I want to talk about three things. First. The Fed released its annual survey on the economic well-being of US households. In that the Fed surveys 11,000 US households on a range of topics on the economy. So let's take a look at some of the more interesting results.

大家好，今天是5月25日，这里是本周市场。过去一周市场波动较大。标普500指数基本持平。然而纳斯达克指数没有创造新的历史最高记录。黄金价格也创下历史新高，尽管在周末价格有所回落。今天我想谈论三件事。首先，美联储发布了关于美国家庭经济状况的年度调查报告。在这项调查中，美联储调查了11000个美国家庭关于经济各方面的话题。让我们来看看一些更有趣的结果。

Secondly, I think the most exciting week in markets in the past week was in crypto where we saw crypto prices, Bitcoin, Ether absolutely surged relating to the approval of a spot Ether ETF as well as what appears to be changing political winds in Washington towards crypto. And lastly, it seems like the Fed is becoming more and more aware that monetary policy is not as restrictive as the Fed thought. That is to say that our star is higher today than it was in the past.

其次，我认为过去一周市场中最令人兴奋的是加密货币领域，我们看到加密货币价格，比特币、以太坊的价格绝对大涨，这与一只以太坊现货交易基金的批准以及在华盛顿看起来政治态度对加密货币正在发生改变有关。最后，看起来联邦储备局越来越意识到货币政策并不像他们想象的那样具有限制性。也就是说，我们今天的明星比过去更耀眼。

So let's talk a little bit about that focusing on Waller's latest speech on the subject. OK, starting with the Fed survey on the economic well-being of US households. So overall, the results show that the that US households are feeling OK with about 72% of US households reporting that they are at least doing OK financially. Now over a longer time series, you can see that 72% is actually historically OK. Now there's been a notable deterioration where 78% of households in 2021 reported that they were at least doing OK. And that number is just 72% this past year.

让我们来谈谈关于这个话题的华勒最新讲话。首先，我们从美联储关于美国家庭经济福祉的调查开始。总体来说，调研结果显示，约72%的美国家庭表示他们在财务上过得还可以。现在看长期时间序列，你会发现72%实际上是历史上还可以的。然而，2021年有78%的家庭表示他们在财务上过得还可以，而过去一年这个数字只有72%。

So things are deteriorating. But overall, things are basically in line with how they've been over the past decade. Now, when you dig deeper into this, it seems like what bothers households the most is inflation, where 35% of households are reporting inflation as their main financial challenge. Now, this shouldn't be surprising after all, prices have gone up a lot. Now, I think people on TV will tell you that inflation as a rate of change has gone down to, let's say, 3%. But it seems like households think of inflation more as the level of prices and prices just haven't gone down. They're just increasing at a slower rate. So if you're looking at housing, for example, house prices still say 40% higher than they were just a few years ago. And that, along with other commodities, is definitely causing hardship for households.

事情正在恶化。但总体来说，事情基本上与过去十年基本一致。现在，当你深入研究时，似乎最困扰家庭的是通货膨胀，35%的家庭报告通货膨胀是他们的主要财务挑战。现在，这并不奇怪，毕竟，物价已经大幅上涨。我认为电视上的人会告诉你，通货膨胀率已经降至，比如说3%。但似乎家庭更多地将通货膨胀视为价格水平，而价格并没有下降。它们只是以更慢的速度增长。因此，如果你看房地产，例如，房价仍然比几年前高40%。而且，与其他商品一起，这确实给家庭带来了困难。

Now, I think the most interesting thing in this survey is that there's a big difference between how households perceive their own financial situation and how they perceive the financial situation of those around them. So as we just discussed, 72% of households think they're doing at least okay financially. But when asking about how they perceive their neighbors, people in their community, they tend to think that, tend to perceive that their neighbors are not doing as well. And when asked about the economy nationally, they have an even lower perception, where 22% of the respondents think that the national economy is good or excellent. And just a few years ago, in 2019, 50% of them thought the national economy was doing good or excellent. So respondents basically systemically think that they are, I think, better off than their neighbors and everyone else, which is a very, I think, a really interesting finding.

现在，我认为这项调查中最有趣的事情是，家庭对自己的财务状况的看法与他们对周围他人的财务状况看法之间存在很大的差异。正如我们刚刚讨论的，72%的家庭认为他们的财务状况至少还过得去。但在询问他们如何看待自己的邻居、社区里的人的财务状况时，他们往往认为他们的邻居并没有做得那么好。当被问及国家经济时，他们对国家经济的看法甚至更低，只有22%的受访者认为国家经济良好或优秀。而就在几年前，2019年，有50%的人认为国家经济表现良好或优秀。因此，受访者基本上系统性地认为他们比邻居和其他人更富裕，我认为这是一个非常有趣的发现。

Now oftentimes, we hear a statistic where US households just don't have enough cash to meet an unforeseen emergency. Now that statistic actually comes from this survey and the latest results show still a very striking finding where about 18% of households surveyed could not meet an emergency expense of less than $100. I find that to be very shocking, especially that unemployment rate is really quite low. Wages have gone up a lot over the past few years. And yet there are 18 people, 18% of households reporting that they would not be able to come up with $100 in an emergency. Now that strikes me as probably less of an income problem and more of a spending problem where you may have certain households that just basically spend all the money they make, not necessarily because they have to, but because they just like to buy things, which is kind of what you see in the rise of buy now pay later.

现在，我们经常听到一个统计数据，美国家庭在面临突发紧急情况时缺乏足够的现金。这个统计数据实际上来自这项调查，最新的结果显示仍然有一个非常引人注目的发现，大约18%的受访家庭无法支付少于100美元的紧急开支。我觉得这很令人震惊，尤其是失业率非常低，过去几年工资大幅上涨。然而还有18%的家庭报告称他们在紧急情况下无法拿出100美元。这让我觉得可能不太是收入问题，更像是支出问题，有些家庭可能基本上把他们赚的钱全部花掉，不一定是因为他们必须这样做，而是因为他们喜欢购物，这也是分期付款崛起的原因。

So more recently, a lot of people, a lot of stores have been experimenting with buy now pay later where they essentially allow customers to buy now and then repay the store in installments over the coming, I'd say months. Now there was also a survey question on the buy now pay later phenomenon and 55% of respondents reported that they chose buy now pay later because it was the only way they can afford buying what they bought. Now 87% also reported that they wanted to spread out of payments and for convenience. Now buy now pay later, it's not for rent or groceries. Overwhelmingly, those transactions are for electronics or fashion. So these are people buying things like the latest cell phones or new shoes or something like that. It doesn't seem like it's something that they need. It's more like something that they want. So I think this is in line with what we were just discussing. This is the US consumer culturally liking to spend a lot of money, even money that they don't have. So I think this is something that's I think pretty well established in the US culture.

最近，很多人、很多商店都在尝试推出“先买后付”的服务，基本上允许顾客先购买商品，然后在未来几个月内分期还款。现在，关于“先买后付”现象，有一项调查显示，55%的受访者选择“先买后付”是因为这是他们唯一能够承受购买商品的方式。此外，87%的受访者也表示他们希望分期付款，以及出于便利性考虑。而“先买后付”并不适用于租金或食品杂货，绝大多数的交易都是用于购买电子产品或时尚品。因此，这些人购买的可能是最新款手机、新鞋子之类的商品，看起来并不是必需品，而是想要的商品。所以我认为这跟我们刚讨论过的那个观点是一致的，即美国消费者文化倾向于花费大量金钱，甚至是他们没有的钱。所以我认为这在美国文化中是非常普遍的。

So rather than perceive this as some kind of doom, I would say that for there are certain segments of the population that no matter how much money they make, they will spend it all. So you would they will always be indebted. And there are also many famous examples of say actors or musicians making millions and still going broke. Now one other thing that I thought was super interesting in this survey was that there was also a section on crypto. And in it, you can see a very notable decline in interest in crypto. So in 2021, 11% of respondents bought crypto in 2023, just 7%. That makes sense. Crypto prices were going through the moon in 2021. And then we had a bit of a crypto winter. Also interesting to know that the seems like the only reason people buy crypto is because they hope that it will go up in price. There's actually very few people actually using it as a form of payment. Only 1% of respondents saying that they use crypto to actually buy something.

因此，与其将这视为一种厄运，不如说有一些人群无论赚多少钱，他们都会把它花光。所以，他们会永远负债累累。还有许多著名的例子，比如演员或音乐家赚了几百万却破产了。在这项调查中，我觉得另一件非常有趣的事情是其中涉及到加密货币的部分。在调查中，你可以看到对加密货币的兴趣明显下降。2021年，11%的受访者购买了加密货币，但到2023年，这个数字降至7%。这是合理的，因为2021年加密货币价格一路飙升，之后我们经历了一段加密货币寒冬。另一个有趣之处是，似乎人们购买加密货币的唯一动机是希望它价格上涨。实际上，很少有人将其用作支付方式。只有1%的受访者表示他们使用加密货币实际购买物品。

Now the last thing that I thought was really interesting in this survey was the changing attitudes towards education across generations. Now this chart here shows how people perceive the costs and benefits of various levels of education. So for example, 86% of the boomers think that the benefits of a graduate or professional degree exceed its costs. Now what I take away from this chart is that there's a very stark generation of view on education where the boomers think that education, great benefits exceed the costs. But as you go down in generations, all the way to the zoomers, fewer and fewer people think that the benefits of education outweigh their costs. And I think that really this speaks to a very large cultural change in the US. Now when the boomers were growing up, they could pay for college just by working a part time job and they graduated into an economy that was growing jobs are plentiful, salaries are growing and so forth. But the typical zoomer is taking on a lot of debt to go to college. College in some cases costs as much as half a million dollars. And when you graduate, I'm not sure the job market is as great as that great. So I think this makes a lot of sense in this big generational divide. And also might suggest we have some big changes that are going to happen with how education is conducted. I'm not sure it makes sense for college tuition to just skyrocket and for us it happens many schools as we do.

在这份调查中，我觉得真正有趣的是不同世代对教育态度的变化。这张图显示了人们对不同教育水平的成本和益处的看法。比如说，86%的婴儿潮一代认为研究生或专业学位的益处超过了成本。从这张图中我可以得出一个结论，不同世代对教育的看法有很明显的差异，婴儿潮一代认为教育的益处远远大于成本。但是随着世代不断更新，直到千禧一代，认为教育的益处超过成本的人越来越少。我认为这真的反映了美国发生了很大的文化变革。当婴儿潮一代成长时，他们可以通过打工支付大学学费，毕业后找工作也相对容易，薪水不断增加等等。但是如今的千禧一代却要背负沉重的债务去上大学，有些大学的学费甚至高达50万美元。而毕业后，就业市场并不像看起来那么乐观。我觉得这种差异在不同世代之间是有意义的，并且也可能意味着教育将会发生重大变革。我不确定大学学费飙升和学校如此之多是一个明智的选择。

1. So okay, the next thing that I want to talk about is crypto. So over the past week, we saw Ether prices absolutely surge, Bitcoin prices surge as well. And that surge has a lot is seemingly directly related to the approval of spot Ether ETFs. That seems to have been a surprise to many people in the industry who long assume that an Ether ETF probably wouldn't be approved. The approval of an Ether ETF, just like the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, drew a lot of excitement because there are a lot of people who want to front run the inflows. Obviously, when you have an ETF, it's easier for people to go and invest in this asset. People can just go to their broker, click buy, money goes into an ETF, ETF buy Ether and Ether prices go up. And that approval of the Bitcoin spot Bitcoin ETF was very positive for Bitcoin prices.

好的，接下来我想谈谈加密货币。在过去的一周里，我们看到以太币价格急剧上涨，比特币价格也上涨。这次上涨似乎与实物以太币ETF的批准直接相关。这似乎让行业内许多人感到意外，他们长期以来一直认为以太币ETF可能不会获得批准。就像比特币ETF的批准一样，以太币ETF的批准引起了很多人的兴奋，因为有很多人想提前迎接资金流入。显然，当你有一个ETF时，人们更容易投资于这个资产。人们只需去他们的经纪人那里，点击购买，资金就流入ETF，ETF购买以太币，以太币价格上涨。比特币ETF批准对比特币价格非常有利。

2. And many people are assuming this will be the same for Ether and that makes a lot of sense. Now, when you look at the actual flows, you can also note that there seems to be some anticipation of this where Bitcoin ETFs did see more inflows after weeks of outflows. A lot of people are anticipating that this could be the next catalyst higher. Now, the approval of the Ether ETF seems to reflect a broader political shift in how crypto is perceived. Now, the house also passed fit 21, which allows the CFTC basically legitimizes crypto by allowing crypto to be brought into the regulated asset class fold, allowing it to basically more widespread adoption.

很多人都认为以太坊也会有同样的情况，这是非常有道理的。当你看到实际资金流向时，你也会发现比特币ETF在连续几周的资金流出后看到了更多的资金流入。很多人预想这可能是下一个推动价格上涨的因素。现在，以太坊ETF的批准似乎反映了对加密货币看法的更广泛政治转变。现在，众议院也通过了21号法案，允许CFTC将加密货币纳入监管资产类别，从而使其更广泛地被接受。

3. Now, this fit 21 bill is probably not going to go anywhere because the Senate doesn't have any corresponding legislation, but it was a bipartisan bill in the house and it shows that both parties are warming up to the idea of crypto. Now, personally, I think the biggest obstacle to crypto is regulation, whereas the government usually doesn't like to have anyone compete with its currency. Now, if that's changing, I think that's extremely popular, seemingly positive for crypto. I think another big development on the political front is President Trump, again, presidential candidate for the Republican Party, is willing to accept donations in crypto.

现在，这项适合21人的法案可能不会取得任何进展，因为参议院没有任何相应的立法，但这是众议院的一项两党提出的法案，表明两党都开始接受加密货币的想法。个人认为，加密货币面临的最大障碍是监管，因为政府通常不希望有人与其货币竞争。现在，如果情况有所改变，我认为这对加密货币是非常受欢迎的，看起来对加密货币是积极的。我认为政治方面的另一个重大进展是，特朗普总统，再次作为共和党总统候选人，愿意接受加密货币捐款。

4. So that's half the political spectrum being more open to crypto. I suspect that this is a very smart political move because you have a lot of young people who are pro-crypto, and even more importantly, you have a lot of people with a lot of crypto wealth that now have a way, have a party to support to protect that wealth. So they could give a lot of money to the pro-crypto candidate to protect their own interests, and President Trump could get a lot more campaign donations as well. So I think a very smart political move and also very bullish for crypto assets because if eventually there is really widespread support within the regulatory apparatus, I think that's bullish long term.

因此，这意味着政治谱系中有一半更加愿意接受加密货币。我认为这是一个非常聪明的政治举措，因为你有很多支持加密货币的年轻人，更重要的是，有很多拥有大量加密财富的人现在有了支持的党派来保护他们的财富。因此，他们可能会向支持加密货币的候选人捐赠大量资金来保护自己的利益，同时特朗普总统也可能会获得更多的竞选捐款。因此，我认为这是一个非常明智的政治举措，对加密资产也非常有利，因为如果最终监管机构内部真的有广泛支持，我认为从长期来看是非常利好的。

5. And I will also write about this week how I think the positive surge in crypto assets is going to be positive for other assets as well, because, again, you're basically creating more wealth among an investor class that can rebalance into other asset classes. And there's a lot of interesting research on the subject that I'll go over. Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about this week is our star. So our star is basically, okay, it's an economics concept where it's the interest rate, the real interest rate where the economy is neither growing nor expanding. And the Fed and other central banks like to use our star as a standard to know whether or not monetary policy is being restrictive or stimulative.

这周我还会写关于我如何认为加密资产的积极涨势对其他资产也会是积极的，因为基本上你正在为投资者阶层创造更多财富，他们可以重新配置到其他资产类别中。关于这个主题有很多有趣的研究，我会详细讨论。好的，这周我想谈的最后一件事是我们的“星星”。所谓“星星”基本上是一个经济概念，指的是经济既不增长也不扩张的实际利率。美联储和其他央行喜欢将“星星”作为一个标准，以了解货币政策是收紧还是刺激。

6. So if you hold interest rates above our star, that means that you're slowing the economy down, and if interest rates are below our star, that means you're stimulating the economy. Now, the Fed and many other people in the commentary have been really surprised by the resilience of the US economy over the past few years. They all thought that if Fed funds went to five and a half percent, that the economy definitely couldn't be able to handle it. We go into recession and inflation will come back down. But here we are, interest rates at five and a half percent and the economy continues to grow above trend. That is forcing a lot of people to rethink what their art star is, suggesting that our star is probably higher now, which is to say that monetary policy is not as restrictive as thought. And that's actually going to be the topic of the next Jackson home meeting where central bankers around the world discussed just what they got wrong.

所以如果你将利率维持在我们的"恒星水平"之上，那意味着你在减缓经济增长，而如果利率低于我们的"恒星水平"，那意味着你在刺激经济增长。现在，美联储和许多评论人士都对美国经济过去几年的弹性感到非常惊讶。他们都以为如果联邦基金利率达到5.5%，那么经济肯定无法承受。我们会步入衰退，通货膨胀会再次回落。但现在，利率达到5.5%，经济仍然以超过趋势增长。这迫使很多人重新考虑他们的"恒星水平"是多少，这表明我们的"恒星水平"现在可能更高，也就是说，货币政策并没有像人们想象的那样具有限制性。事实上，这将是下次杰克逊霍尔会议的讨论主题，届时世界各地的央行行长们将讨论他们犯了什么错误。

7. Now, Governor Waller also had a recent speech on just on Friday directly addressing this topic. Now, he thinks of our star, the markets measure of our star as basically 10 year real interest rates.

现在，沃勒州长在上周五直接谈到了这个话题。他认为我们的明星，市场对我们明星的衡量，基本上是10年实际利率。

And looking at a time series of that, he noticed that the 10 year real interest rates went really low for a long period of time. And post pandemic has surged to about 2%. Suggesting that our star today is higher than it was in the past. Now, in a speech, he gives a number of reasons why he thought our star was lower in the past and could be higher going forward.

他观察了一系列时间序列数据后发现，十年期实际利率在长时间内保持非常低的水平。而在疫情过后，这一利率飙升至约2%。这说明我们今天的利率比过去更高。在一次演讲中，他提出了一些理由，解释为什么他认为过去的利率较低，未来可能会更高。

Now, again, he's looking at the 10 year real yield as a proxy for our star. So he's looking at now, bring that in mind, he's looking at this from a supply and demand perspective. Now, he knows a number of reasons why real yields could have been lower pre pandemic is because you had a lot of foreigners buying treasuries.

现在，他再次将10年期实际收益率视为我们的明星代表。所以带着这个想法，他从供需的角度来看待这个问题。现在，他知道实际收益率在疫情前为什么会较低的原因之一是因为有很多外国人在购买国债。

Now, he notes that you had increased openness in capital markets. So you had a lot of foreigners being able to buy treasuries. You had increased central bank buying. So central banks accumulated a whole bunch of foreign reserves. And they usually largely reinvested that into treasuries. And also, he noted that there's a whole lot of sovereign wealth funds.

现在，他指出你在资本市场上的开放性增加了。所以有很多外国人能够购买国债。中央银行的购买也增加了。因此中央银行积累了大量外汇储备。他通常会把这些储备大部分重新投资到国债上。他还指出有大量的主权财富基金。

You can think of it as a lot of, say, countries with a lot of oil revenues or industry revenues, just taking that money investing in US treasuries. And all this foreign buying seems to have pushed yields lower and has pushed real yields lower as well and led to relatively low our star. If you look at a chart of foreign buyers of treasuries, you can definitely see that.

你可以把它看作是许多拥有大量石油收入或工业收入的国家，将这笔钱投资于美国国债。所有这些外国购买似乎已经将收益率推低，并也使实际收益率降低，并导致我们的利率相对较低。如果你看一下美国国债的外国购买图表，你肯定会看到这一点。

Whereas in the past, there are a lot of foreigners buying treasuries. But what you also note is that after the great financial crisis, foreigners have lost a lot of interest in treasuries. So those few points that had kept our star low don't seem to be as prominent as they going forward.

过去，有许多外国人购买国债。但你可能也注意到，在经历了大规模金融危机后，外国人对国债失去了很多兴趣。因此，维持我们国债评级较低的那几个因素似乎在未来不再那么突出。

Now, other things Governor Waller mentioned was an aging population. He's thinking being that as population ages, boomers are going to buy more treasuries because that's, you know, what textbooks tell you as a safe asset. And that's going to push downward pressure on interest rates as well.

现在，沃勒州长提到的另一件事是人口老龄化。他认为随着人口老龄化，婴儿潮一代会购买更多的国债，因为那是教科书告诉我们的安全资产。这也会对利率施加向下压力。

Although I will note though that there's some interesting research by Schwab, again, giant brokerage account, looking into their customers. They actually find that boomers tend to have larger allocations to equities than the younger cohorts. So that conventional wisdom doesn't seem to be true.

尽管我要指出的是，史瓦布（Schwab）有一些有趣的研究，再次研究他们的大型经纪账户的客户。事实上，他们发现婴儿潮一代倾向于比较年轻一代更多地分配资金给股票。因此，传统看法似乎并不正确。

Governor Waller also mentioned regulatory demand for treasuries as putting downward pressure on interest rates. Now, going forward, his takeaway seems to be that as we have increasing supply of treasuries through large deficits, that's going to put upward pressure on interest rates and probably mean that our star is going to be higher going forward than in the past.

沃勒州长还提到，监管对国债的需求也对利率施加了下行压力。展望未来，他认为随着财政逆差增加，国债供应增加，这将对利率施加上行压力，可能意味着我们未来的起星会比过去更高。

Again, he's very circumspect. A lot of uncertainty here, but based on the supply and demand framework, you know, the whole, in the past, these big demand drivers, foreigners, bank regulation, things like that, probably not going to be as prominent as they are going forward. And at the same time, you have a huge surge in issuance by the US government, fiscal deficit estimated to be 6% a year forever. And that argues for higher real interest rates and in his framework and higher our star.

他非常谨慎。 这里有很多不确定性，但基于供求框架，你知道，过去那些重要的需求驱动因素，比如外国人、银行监管等等，可能不会像以后那样突出。 同时，美国政府的发行潮涌现，财政赤字被估计为每年6%。 这意味着实际利率会上升，并在他的框架中增加我们的“核心星”。

Now, taking a step back, if you look at what the Fed thinks about our star from their dot plot, you can see that it seems like FOMC market participants basically don't really think our star has changed all that much.

现在，退一步来看，如果你看看联邦储备局通过他们的点点图对我们的明星持什么看法，你会发现FOMC市场参与者基本上并不认为我们的明星发生了太大变化。

So we continue to think our stars about 0.5% real or 2.5% nominal. And only until recently, only until the last March dot plot, do we see them mildly adjusting their our star estimate from 0.5% to 0.6% real. And that is to say, it seems like most of them think that in the longer run, Fed funds will go to 2.6%, right, 2% inflation plus 0.5%, 2.6% real.

因此，我们继续认为我们的星星实际增长率约为0.5%，名义增长率约为2.5%。直到最近，直到去年三月的点阵图，我们看到他们将我们的星星估计略微调整为0.6%的实际增长率。也就是说，大多数人认为从长远来看，联邦基金利率将达到2.6%，对吧，即2%的通胀率加上0.5%的实际增长率。

The market, though, is just way ahead of them. If you look at market pricing for for the path of it policy, market thinks that the rate cut cycle is going to bottom at about 3.9%. So, Fed is thinking that longer run interest rates, you know, probably 2.6%, market is thinking 3.8%. Fed is thinking that the our star about 0.6% real market thinking based on 10 year real yields, it's about 2%.

然而，市场的走势已经远远超出了他们的预期。如果您看一下市场对货币政策走势的定价，市场认为利率下调周期将在大约3.9%触底。因此，联邦储备委员会认为长期利率可能会达到2.6%，而市场则认为是3.8%。联邦储备委员会认为我们的核心通胀率约为0.6%，而市场则根据10年期实际收益率认为是约为2%。

So, the market is just way ahead of the Fed in realizing that, you know, the structure of the economy has changed, maybe aging, maybe deficit spending. In a way, something is different that makes interest rates today less restrictive than, well, so means making 5.5% interest rates today less restrictive than they would be in the past.

因此，市场比联邦储备委员会更早认识到经济结构已经改变，可能是人口老龄化，可能是赤字支出。在某种程度上，有一些不同的因素使得当前利率比过去更不受限制，这就意味着今天5.5%的利率比过去更不受限制。

Now, the Fed is really behind on the subject, but it doesn't really matter because the market has already priced, priced this new regime in. But definitely will be interesting to see how long it takes the Fed to get on the same page as the market and whether or not the market will, you know, take that in, go even further.

现在，美联储在这个问题上确实落后了，但这并不重要，因为市场已经将这个新的制度定价了。但肯定会很有趣看看美联储需要多长时间与市场保持一致，以及市场是否会接受它，继续走得更远。

In any case, that's all I've prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in my thoughts, please check out my blog, FedGuy.com, and if you're interested in learning more about macro markets, check out my online courses at centralbanking101.com.

无论如何，今天我准备好的就只有这些了。非常感谢你的收听。如果你对我的想法感兴趣，请查看我的博客FedGuy.com，如果你想了解更多关于宏观市场的知识，请查看我在centralbanking101.com上的在线课程。

Talk to you guys next week.

下周再和你们聊。