Replit and Google, The Google Perspective, Twitter's Bad Idea
发布时间 2023-03-29 20:41:09 来源
摘要
The Replit-Google deal is an obvious one for Replit, but it's much more important than Google — who didn't go far enough. Then, Musk's latest Twitter idea makes no sense.
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
This day I have to vote, reput in Google, the Google perspective, and Twitter's bad idea was published on Wednesday, March 29, 2023.
今天我必须投票，搜索了谷歌，发现谷歌的观点和Twitter的糟糕想法都在2023年3月29日星期三发布了。
Good morning. Next week I will be taking a vacation with my family. There will be no updates or articles on Shitekri. There will be one episode of Sharp Tech, send questions to email sharptech.fm, and one episode of Dithering. After tomorrow's interview I will be back on Monday, April 10.
早上好。下周我会和家人一起度假。Shitekri网站将不再更新文章，也不会发布新的消息。Sharptech.fm将会发布一期节目，敬请将您的问题发送至邮箱。而Dithering将继续发布一期节目。明天的采访结束之后，我将会在4月10日星期一回来。
Meanwhile, last week's episode of Sharp China covered the She Putin Summit in Moscow, in the TikTok hearing in Washington DC. Do note that there may be a slightly reduced frequency in Sharp Tech, Sharp China, in greatest Valtalk episodes in April, as Andrew Sharp is welcoming a new baby into the world any day now. As always, thank you for your support of Shitekri Plus.
同时，上周《尖端科技中国》节目报道了莫斯科的拜登普京峰会和华盛顿特区的TikTok听证会。请注意，4月份《尖端科技》、《尖端科技中国》和《最强价值观》节目可能会稍微减少播放频率，因为安德鲁·夏普随时都有可能迎来新生命。像往常一样，感谢您对Shitekri Plus的支持。
On to the update, Reput in Google, from Bloomberg. Microsoft Corpse GitHub Unit created one of the first widely deployed programs using OpenAI's language generation tools, an app called Copilot that helps software developers write computer code.
谈到更新，来自彭博社的消息，微软公司下属GitHub部门采用OpenAI的自然语言产生工具，创造了一款名为Copilot的应用程序，帮助软件开发人员编写计算机代码，并成为最早得到广泛部署的程序之一。
Now GitHub is adding a chat and voice feature that will let programmers ask how to accomplish certain coding tasks. The new version announced Wednesday is called Copilot X, which GitHub Chief Executive Officer Tomas Domke said he demonstrated to one of his children by asking it how to program a snake game in Python. The chat window can provide explanations of what segments of code are meant to do, create ways to test the code, and propose fixes for bugs. This can also give instructions or ask questions using their voice.
现在 GitHub 正在加入一个聊天和语音功能，程序员可以询问如何完成某些编码任务。周三宣布的新版本名为 Copilot X，GitHub 的首席执行官托马斯·多姆克表示他向他的一个孩子展示了这个功能，询问如何用 Python 编程蛇游戏。聊天窗口可以提供代码段的解释，创建测试代码的方法，并提出修复错误的建议。这还可以使用语音提供说明或提出问题。
GitHub Copilot was, until the release of chat's APT, the most widely used AI products in the world. Microsoft claimed that 46% of the code written in its integrated developer environments, IDE's, was provided by Copilot. I've also heard, for what it's worth, a lot of anecdotal evidence of developing Copilot much more than they ever expected, including a few I know who switched to Microsoft IDE's just to use Copilot. Copilot was based on GPT-3 and was first announced in 2021.
直到聊天的APT发布之前，GitHub Copilot是全世界最广泛使用的AI产品。微软声称，在其集成开发环境IDE中，有46%的代码是由Copilot提供的。据我所知，还有很多关于开发Copilot的趣闻，比他们预期的要多得多，包括我认识的一些人转而使用Microsoft IDE来使用Copilot。Copilot基于GPT-3，并于2021年首次宣布。
Copilot X updates the Copilot to GPT-4 and adds the aforementioned chat and voice tools, although these are not yet available for broad use. This is all important context for yesterday's news from Repplet and Google, from Bloomberg. Alphabet Inc's Google is striking a partnership to combine its artificial intelligence language models with software from startup Repplet Inc that helps computer programmers write code, a bid to compete with a similar product from Microsoft Corp's GitHub and Open AI.
Copilot X 更新了 Copilot 到 GPT-4，并添加了上述的聊天和语音工具，虽然这些工具尚未成为广泛使用的选择。这是昨天来自 Bloomberg 的 Repplet 和 Google 新闻的重要背景资料。Alphabet 公司的 Google 正在与初创公司 Repplet Inc 达成合作伙伴关系，将其人工智能语言模型与软件相结合，帮助计算机程序员编写代码，以与 Microsoft Corp 的 GitHub 和 Open AI 提供的类似产品竞争。
Repplet, which is 20 million users, said its Ghostwriter app will rely on Google's language generation AI to improve its ability to suggest blocks of code, complete programs, and answer developer questions. Google Cloud Vice President, June Yang, declined to specify which language AI products Repplet will use, noting that it's a customized combination of systems that address different tasks like chat and code generation. Previously, Repplet built the product with its own AI.
Repplet宣布，它的Ghostwriter应用将依赖Google的自然语言生成AI来提高其建议代码块、完成程序以及回答开发者问题的能力。Google Cloud副总裁June Yang拒绝具体说明Repplet将使用哪些语言AI产品，指出这是一个定制的组合系统，涵盖了不同的任务，如聊天和代码生成。之前，Repplet使用了自己的AI来构建该产品。
Google, quote, has much better technology than most people know, and quote, Repplet Chief Executive Officer Amjad Masad said in an interview. The startup will also expand its use of Google's cloud services and hopes the relationship with the tech giant will help it win over large corporate customers. Right now Repplet's clients are largely individual developers and startups. Google will also distribute Repplet software as part of the partnership.
"Google拥有比大多数人所知道的更好的技术，" Repplet首席执行官Amjad Masad在采访中说道， "该初创公司还将扩大其使用Google的云服务，并希望与这个科技巨头的合作关系能帮助它赢得更多大型企业客户，目前Repplet的客户大多是个人开发者和初创企业。此外，Google还将在合作伙伴关系中分发Repplet软件。"
I interviewed Repplet founder and CEO Amjad Masad last year. Shortly after the startup announced Ghostwriter AI, here is what he said when I asked him about its underpinnings.
去年，我采访了 Repplet 的创始人兼 CEO Amjad Masad。不久之后，该创业公司宣布了 Ghostwriter AI，当我问他这个产品的基础是什么时，他这样回答。
So GPT2 came out, start saying, okay, this is probably going to enable the technology GPT2 came out. I mean, we'll start writing software for it. And then we started building on GPT3. We released the explain code before clope island, before anyone else. We released a bunch of experiments on OpenAI. The unfortunately, the pricing model of OpenAI just didn't make sense for us.
所以GPT2发布了，我们开始说，好吧，这可能会使GPT2能够使用技术。我的意思是，我们将开始为它编写软件。然后我们开始在GPT3上建立。在Clope Island之前，我们发布了解释代码，比任何其他人都要早。我们在OpenAI上发布了一堆实验。不幸的是，OpenAI的定价模型对我们来说没有意义。
The other thing is like we are a company that knows how to optimize compute. And we are a company that knows how to, you know, we have at any given point, one million and container running continuously, it makes us like one of the bigger clouds of the world, actually. And so it just didn't make sense for us to build on OpenAI because we could control latency. We could get uptime because it's a great company. We love that we're partnered with them. But at the end of the day, it just makes sense for us to build our own.
另一件事就像我们是一家知道如何优化计算的公司。我们也是一家知道如何运作的公司，在任何时刻都有一百万个容器持续运行，这使我们成为世界上一个更大的云计算公司。所以，对我们来说，在OpenAI上建立并没有意义，因为我们可以控制延迟，可以实现高可用性，因为它是一家很棒的公司。我们很高兴和他们合作，但最终，我们建立自己的系统才是最明智的选择。
So with Ghostwriter, we started from an open source model and we applied a ton of optimization on it and a ton of additional training and work. And we built this really nice front end UX on top of it. And we're now close beta. We're going to open beta pretty soon. And then you'll be able to buy it as a power up on Repplet next month.
所以，我们使用Ghostwriter，从开源模型开始，并对其进行了大量优化和额外培训和工作。我们在其上构建了非常漂亮的前端UX。我们现在已经接近测试版了，很快就要进入公测。然后，您将能够在下个月在Repplet上购买它作为Power Up。
From what I understand, Repplet did still have components of Ghostwriter that were powered by OpenAI. But that only magnifies the issue Repplet faced in its goal to become an IDE that grows beyond new programmers in educational contexts. To be competitive with IDE like GitHub code spaces or Microsoft VS Code.
据我所了解，Repplet仍然有一些由OpenAI驱动的Ghostwriter组件。但这只是放大了Repplet在实现其超越教育背景下新手程序员的IDE目标所面临的问题。要与GitHub代码空间或Microsoft VS Code等IDE竞争。
First, it's queried on an AI code pilot and code is going to GitHub for the name. It's practically cleanx at this point. It's going to be an essential component of any IDE going forward. Repplet is interesting because it is cloud first, with all the benefits and drawbacks that entails. But apps in a compelling AI assistant will not only not be competitive for professional use cases but will also lose its appeal for new programmers.
首先，它会经过一个AI代码导航器的查询，代码将会被上传到GitHub上。这时候它已基本上是纯净的。而且，它将成为未来任何IDE的必不可少的组件。Repplet之所以有趣是因为它首先是云端的，这带来了优点和缺点。但是，在一个具有吸引力的AI助手中的应用，不仅不会在专业用途中竞争，还会失去对新程序员的吸引力。
Of course, Repplet understood this. This is why they built Ghostwriter. There is a big challenge though, in relying on open source foundation models and competition with Microsoft. First, while open source models are advancing quickly, they are still behind OpenAI's most cutting edge models. Second, it's a lot of work to incorporate them, that Repplet could better spend working on the IDE itself.
当然，Repplet 了解这一点。这就是他们构建 Ghostwriter 的原因。然而，有一个很大的挑战，就是依赖开源基础模型并与微软竞争。首先，尽管开源模型正在快速发展，但它们仍然落后于 OpenAI 最尖端的模型。其次，需要花费大量工作来整合它们，而 Repplet 可以更好地将时间花在 IDE 本身上。
Meanwhile, because of Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, the company is definitely getting access to OpenAI's new models first. It has a direct feedback channel in terms of evolving those models for its users. And it has a huge price advantage to whatever parts of the OpenAI API that Repplet is using. Partnering with Google solves these problems.
与此同时，由于微软与OpenAI的合作，该公司肯定最先获得OpenAI的新模型。在进化这些模型以满足其用户的方面，它也拥有直接的反馈渠道。此外，它还具有巨大的价格优势，无论Repplet使用OpenAI API的部分是什么。与谷歌合作可以解决这些问题。
Google's foundational models are widely thought to be competitive with OpenAI's. This is, to be fair, an open question, particularly given Bards Underwhelming Launch. And Google is responsible for advancing them. Repplet will have direct access to Google to provide feedback and ask for improvements for their use case. Repplet will likely have a much more favorable pricing deal with Google, especially if that manifests through other avenues like Google Cloud Credits for its customers, or Repplet itself, in addition to favorable API pricing.
谷歌的基础模型被广泛认为与 OpenAI 的模型竞争能力相当。说实话，这个问题还有待探讨，特别是考虑到 Bards 平淡的发布。而且，谷歌负责推进它们的发展。Repplet 将直接访问谷歌，以获得反馈并要求针对他们的用例进行改进。Repplet 很可能会获得与谷歌更有利的定价交易，特别是如果这通过其他途径来体现，例如为其客户提供 Google Cloud Credits，或者针对其 API 定价的优惠。
In short, OpenAI isn't Repplet's long-term competitor. Microsoft is. Microsoft, though, has the advantage in terms of relying on OpenAI directly, and now Repplet is attached to the company that is competing with OpenAI, at least in theory.
简而言之，OpenAI并不是Repplet的长期竞争对手。微软才是竞争对手。然而，微软在直接依赖OpenAI方面具有优势，现在Repplet与与OpenAI竞争的公司相关联，至少在理论上。
The Google perspective. With that in mind, the company this deal makes the most sense for its Google. First, monetizing its AI work through an API makes sense for Google, as it's not destructive to its search business model. Second, Google gets a major customer that can function as a showpiece for their capabilities. Third, it's clear that coding is one of the most important applications for AI today, but the best possible experience is going to come by integrating AI with an IDE, and Google doesn't have an IDE for general purpose use.
从谷歌的角度来看这件事情，这笔交易对谷歌来说最有意义。首先，通过API实现人工智能的商业化是对谷歌业务模式没什么影响的好选择。其次，谷歌获得一个能够展现它能力的重要客户。第三，目前来说编程是人工智能的最重要应用之一，但要获得最佳的体验，需要将人工智能和IDE相结合，而谷歌没有面向一般用途的IDE。
Now its AI is going to be incorporated in an already large and very rapidly growing one that is taking on Microsoft. As an aside, that Microsoft acquisition of GitHub is looking positively brilliant now. I wrote at the time that the deal was worth it just because it gave Microsoft the ability to win the hearts and minds of developers, which was more important than adding a few hooks to Azure or whatever. That has largely happened, and was helped along by Microsoft's massively successful and free VS Code IDE, but having a place to prove that AI is even more important.
现在，谷歌的人工智能技术即将应用于一个已经非常庞大且快速增长的竞争对手之中，这个竞争对手正在挑战微软的地位。顺带一提，微软收购GitHub这一举措现在看来是多么正确啊。当时我写过，这个交易的价值在于它让微软获得了赢得开发者的心和思想的能力，这比在Azure或其他方面添加一些功能还要重要。现在这已经在很大程度上实现了，这也得益于微软的大规模成功和免费的VS Code IDE，但在GitHub这个场所证明AI的重要性也是不可或缺的。
Moreover, those Azure hooks are a lot more compelling now that Azure comes with OpenAI APIs. At that end, I wouldn't be surprised if this Google Repplet deal is itself a precursor to an acquisition. If GitHub went from a nice brand building acquisition for Microsoft to an essential part of their strategy going forward, then how can Google not respond, particularly given IDs are not simply a competition in their own right, but also the battleground for AI models generally, and the single most important place to acquire developers going forward.
此外，由于Azure现在配备了OpenAI APIs，这些Azure钩子现在更具有吸引力。因此，如果这笔谷歌Repplet交易本身就是一个前兆，让它成为一笔收购交易也不会让我感到意外。如果GitHub从原来只是微软的品牌建设收购变成了他们未来战略的必不可少的一部分，那么谷歌怎么能不回应呢？尤其是因为这些ID不仅仅是竞争对手，还是AI模型竞争的战场，是未来最重要的获取开发人员的地方。
Indeed, I would go further, the fact that Google did not buy Repplet and is instead choosing to partner with the startup, strikes me as another worrisome indicator that Google's leadership is lacking in boldness. Again, the single best application today of AI Interceptor Productivity is coding, and that means owning the IDE is essential, but Google is settling for a partnership instead.
其实，我更进一步地认为，Google没有购买Repplet，反而选择与这个初创企业合作，这一事实让我感到担忧，这表明Google的领导层缺乏大胆精神。再说一遍，人工智能拦截器生产率今天最好的应用是编码，这意味着拥有IDE是必不可少的，但是Google却选择了合作。
Twitter's bad idea. I feel compelled to address this tweet. Elon Musk tweeted, starting April 15th, only verified accounts will be legible to be in four U-recommendations. This is the only realistic way to address advanced AI bot swarms taking over. It is otherwise a hopeless losing battle. Voting and pose will require verification for the same reason, to which James Lightbody replied, Ben Thompson called it, tending toward all paid.
Twitter 的坏点子。我不得不谈一下这个推文。埃隆·马斯克发推文，从4月15日开始，只有经过验证的账户才能进入4个U-推荐列表。这是唯一现实的应对高级AI机器人团队攻占的方式，否则就是一场无望的失败战。投票和发帖也需要进行验证，原因也同样如此，詹姆斯·莱特巴迪回答说，本·汤普森称之为趋向于全支付。
I have admittedly proposed a lot of different solutions for Twitter over the years.
我得承认，这些年来我确实提出了很多不同的解决方案，以改善Twitter。
When Musk first bid for Twitter, I argued that the combination should be split in two. The Twitter service could monetize VNAPI and Twitter apps, including the official app, monetize however they wished, and thus cover the API fee.
当马斯克首次竞标推特时，我认为这种组合应该拆分成两部分。推特服务可以通过VNAPI和Twitter应用程序实现货币化，包括官方应用程序，他们可以自己决定如何实现货币化，并因此覆盖API费用。
I assumed that would entail ads for the official Twitter app and subscriptions for third-party apps.
我原以为这意味着官方Twitter应用的广告和第三方应用的订阅。
That noted, when Perag Agrawal took over Twitter a few months before that, I proposed that Twitter do a full subscription model, wherever one pays. I suspect that is what James Lightbody is referring to.
那么，在那之前几个月，Perag Agrawal 掌管 Twitter 的时候，我建议 Twitter 推出一种完全的订阅模式，也就是任何人都需要付费。我猜 James Lightbody 指的就是这个。
There is, though, a very important distinction between Musk's announcement in my proposal.
然而，在我的提议中，马斯克的宣布有一个非常重要的区别。
We are focusing on completely different groups of users. This monetization approach targets people who post. By definition, only people who post care if their tweets appear in the algorithmic timeline.
我们正在专注于完全不同的用户群。这种商业化方法的目标是那些发布发言的人。按照定义，只有发布发言的人才关心他们的推文是否出现在算法时间轴中。
A subscription service for all, on the other hand, is by definition targeted at those who simply read.
另一方面，所有人都可以使用的订阅服务，基本上是针对那些只是阅读的人。
Keep in mind the Golden Rule Social Networks, which I articulated in this update about Musk's spot complaints. Quote, "one of the most famous rules of thumb about online communities is the 99.1 ratio. 90% of participants work, 9% comment, and 1% post."
记住金科玉律社交网络，在我有关马斯克抱怨的更新中已经表述过。引用“有关在线社区最著名的经验法则之一是99.1比率。90％的参与者工作，9％的人评论，1％的人发布。”
These ratios, to be fair, were developed a few decades ago in the context of forums and wikis.
这些比率是公平的，几十年前在论坛和维基的背景下开发的。
One of the triumphs of platforms like Facebook and Twitter is how much easier they made it to post, comment, and interact. Still, it seems very reasonable to assume that there remain lots of Twitter users who consume tweets, or even like them, but never send a public tweet.
像 Facebook 和 Twitter 这样的平台的胜利之一是它们使发布、评论和互动变得更加容易。不过，很合理地认为仍有许多 Twitter 用户仅浏览推文，甚至喜欢它们，但从未发布过公开的推文。
Moreover, it seems likely that bought accounts are more likely to send public tweets.
此外，似乎购买的账号更有可能发送公共推文。
That's kind of the point.
这是重点所在。
A punitive subscription offering that actually removes features only makes sense if it captures the entire Twitter user base, including those who don't post. There simply won't be enough revenue to make it worth it otherwise.
如果强制性订阅服务实际上只删除功能，那么只有当它涵盖包括不发布信息的所有Twitter用户时才是有意义的。否则，将不会有足够的收入来使其值得。
To go halfway, like this measure, actually makes the business worse.
采取这样的措施只走了一半路，实际上会使业务变得更糟。
One might not want to charge non-posters because they look at ads, but if they have a markedly worse experience, they are more likely to churn, and an algorithm timeline tuned to their interest ought to contribute to better ad targeting as well.
也许我们不想向没有发帖的用户收费，因为他们看到了广告，但如果他们的体验明显更糟糕，他们更可能会停留并且一个调整为他们兴趣的算法时间轴应该有助于更好的广告定位。
The fact of the matter is that as much as BUSK may dislike some of the loudest and most popular voices on Twitter, they are exactly right when they argue that they deliver more value to Twitter than Twitter could ever hope to gain from them via a target of subscription fee.
事实上，虽然BUSK可能不喜欢Twitter上最响亮和最受欢迎的一些声音，但他们在争论他们给Twitter带来的价值比Twitter能通过订阅费得到的更高时，是完全正确的。
They are on the fact that Musk has managed to make a blue checkmark into a political signal.
他们对于马斯克设法将蓝色勾号转化成政治信号感到惊讶。
One he is only magnifying by making it explicit that anyone who shows up in the 4U feed is a subscriber, and Musk is basically dooming what ought to be the most compelling and engaging part of Twitter into an inevitable ghost town.
他只是在明确表示4U反馈中出现的所有人都是订阅者，从而放大了一个本来就存在的问题。马斯克基本上注定了Twitter最应该令人着迷和参与的部分将成为一个不可避免的鬼镇。
There are three possible business models for Twitter to pursue.
Twitter有三种可能的商业模式可供追求。
One, all free with a heavy focus on making the algorithm better to both keep people engaged and deliver better-targeted ads.
我们致力于让所有用户都可以免费使用，并且重点关注改进算法，从而保持用户的参与度并提供更精准的广告。
Two, mostly free, with a subscription add-on for extra features beyond the core user experience. Although this is probably the worst of the three, as the number of people who will subscribe will be small.
有两个版本，大部分都是免费的，还有一个订阅附加服务，提供核心用户体验以外的额外功能。虽然这可能是三个版本中最糟糕的，因为订阅人数很少。
Three, all paid so that you collect subscription fees from everyone, making up for churn and diminished advertising.
我们三个人全都付了费用，这样你就可以收取所有人的订阅费，弥补客户流失和广告减少的损失。
This proposal is none of these. It makes Twitter worse for readers and tries to tax those who contribute the most value, all in the context of the blue checkmark being a political symbol.
这项提议一点也不好，会使得Twitter阅读体验更糟糕，还试图向那些做出最有价值贡献的人征税，而这一切都是在蓝色勾勾被政治化的情况下发生的。
It's a truly terrible idea.
这主意真的太糟糕了。
The daily update is intended for a single recipient, but occasional forwarding is totally fine.
这个日常更新是打算给单个收件人的，但偶尔转发也完全可以。
If you would like to order multiple subscriptions for your team with a group discount, please contact me directly.
如果您想要为您的团队订购多个订阅并享受团体折扣，请直接联系我。
Thanks for being a subscriber and have a great day.
谢谢您成为我们的订阅者，祝您有个愉快的一天。