The Truth About Tesla's FSD Take Rate / Major EV Tariffs / Tesla Engineer on Solving FSD ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dyla Loomis, quick shout out to Minuis Patrons, Richard L, Charles F, Curtis W, and my brother Han Zhen. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. We've learned that Renji Zhu, who was the director of manufacturing at Tesla for just over five years, who was most recently responsible for launching the Cybertruck program at Giga Texas, has now left the company. At this point, based on his LinkedIn post, it's not clear whether he was fired or decided to leave on his own. I bring this up as a reminder that all of the legacy OEMs in the United States should be watching these Tesla layoffs closely and reaching out to all of these ex-Tesla employees. When this round of Tesla layoffs in the restructuring is done, there could be between 10 and 20,000 ex-Tesla employees with incredible experience, that would be a huge value to some of these other companies working on building up their EV supply chains and production lines. Thus, if you support the overall EV movement, this could be a silver lining to what's taking place right now at Tesla. Personally, I think this one is being blown out of proportion, but Gary Black said that Yippet credit card data showed just 2% of Tesla owners with the 30-day trial of FSD have actually subscribed after their trial expired. However, if you keep reading, you find out the sample size was only 3500 users and looking into this Yippet company, I would have some questions about the reliability of even that data. Reading through Yippets about us page, it really does not say anything about what the company actually does, it just talks in vague platitudes.

欢迎来到 Electrified，我是您的主持人Dyla Loomis，特别感谢Minuis的赞助者Richard L，Charles F，Curtis W，以及我的兄弟韩震。感谢您选择支持这个频道。我们了解到，曾在特斯拉担任制造主管五年多的Renji Zhu，最近负责在吉加得克萨斯启动Cybertruck项目，现已离开了公司。根据他的领英帖子，目前还不清楚他是被解雇还是自行离职。我提到这一点是为了提醒美国所有传统汽车制造商密切关注特斯拉的裁员情况，并与这些前特斯拉员工联系。当特斯拉的这一轮裁员和重组完成后，可能会有约10到20,000名经验丰富的前特斯拉员工，他们对其他一些致力于建设EV供应链和生产线的公司具有巨大的价值。因此，如果您支持整体EV运动，这可能是特斯拉目前发生的事情的一线曙光。就个人而言，我认为这一点被夸大了，但Gary Black表示，Yippet信用卡数据显示，在30天试用FSD后只有2%的特斯拉车主实际订阅了。然而，如果继续阅读，您会发现样本容量只有3500名用户，并研究这家Yippet公司时，我对甚至那些数据的可靠性都有些疑问。通读Yippet的关于我们页面，实际上没有说明这家公司到底做什么，只是用含糊而宏大的话语说事。

We also have to keep in mind, as of just 2 days ago, there was still 26% of Tesla's fleet that was still on FSD version 11.4.9. This is just a representative sample from Tesla-Fi, but those with the free trial on version 11 would certainly be less likely to actually subscribe. I think with FSD in its current state, a lot of the general population will only subscribe for a month here and there, maybe if they plan to go on a road trip or drive more than usual. I would guess that those with a free trial of version 12 or better would have a higher take rate than 2%, but I also don't think it's anywhere up near 25 or 30% like some were expecting. Still FSD really is more set it and forget it and the supervision aspect continually comes down and the lag goes away hopefully in 12.4. I'd just speculate there's a lot of people out there where it's just going to take time and not even a month will be enough time to actually trust the system, to understand how it's going to behave in different scenarios, and ultimately for it to broadly be a stress reducing feature rather than a stress inducing feature.

截至两天前，特斯拉仍有26%的车队仍在使用FSD版本11.4.9。这仅仅是来自特斯拉-Fi的代表样本，但那些在版本11上有免费试用的人肯定不太可能真正订阅。我认为在当前状态下，很多普通大众可能只会偶尔订阅一个月，也许是因为他们计划进行一次长途旅行或者驾驶比平时更多。我猜想那些有版本12或更高版本免费试用的人的接受率可能会高于2%，但我也认为不会接近一些人期望的25%或30%。尽管FSD确实更多地是设置后放心使用，监管方面逐渐降低，希望在12.4版本中延迟也消失。我只是推测，很多人可能需要时间，甚至一个月的时间也不足以让他们真正信任这个系统，了解它在不同情况下的行为方式，最终使其广泛成为一个减压功能，而不是增加压力的功能。

We also just learned that nearly 2 thirds of US drivers expressed fear of self-driving tech in the latest related AAA consumer survey. 66% of respondents in the survey said they feared self-driving technology, that's an increase from 54% three years ago. At that time, 14% said they trusted the tech, only 9% said they do now. A JD power survey said confidence fell in autonomous tech from 42 on the 100 point scale in 2021 to 37 in their latest survey in October. But there's a silver lining, once consumers experience the technology they tend to form favorable opinions. Consumers who have been in a Robotaxian Phoenix or San Francisco had a 67 confidence score, a full 30 points higher than non-riders. And just so you know, the Los Angeles City Council this month passed a motion in support of proposed legislation in California that if enacted, would allow municipalities to regulate autonomous vehicles throughout the state. AKA, companies would have to go city by city or even county by county to actually get AV approval. And lastly, by the time we get to version 12.4 and 12.5 possibly toward the end of this year, the take rate given this current version today will largely be irrelevant, depending on how good dot four and dot five actually are.

我们还刚刚得知，根据最新的AAA消费者调查，近2/3的美国司机表示对自动驾驶技术感到恐惧。调查中有66%的受访者表示他们害怕自动驾驶技术，这比三年前的54%有所增加。当时，只有14%的人表示他们信任这项技术，而现在这一比例只有9%。JD Power的一项调查显示，2021年100分制中对自主技术的信心从42降至最新调查中的37。但好在有一线希望，一旦消费者体验了这项技术，他们往往会形成积极的看法。在凤凰城或旧金山搭乘过Robotaxi的消费者的信心评分为67，比没有乘坐过的人高出整整30分。另外，这个月洛杉矶市议会通过了一项支持加利福尼亚州提出的立法草案的动议，如果通过，将允许地方政府在全州范围内对自动驾驶车辆进行监管。也就是说，公司将不得不逐个城市甚至县城去获取自动驾驶车辆的批准。最后，当我们可能在今年年底推出12.4和12.5版本时，鉴于这个当前版本，在DOT四和DOT五的表现有多好将成为相当重要的因素。

And it's not like Tesla can't do a free one month trial again in the future. They could do it every quarter. They could do it every time they have a big dot release. So I think we'll see something like this again in the near future. Plus even if the take rate really was only between two and let's say 5% Tesla will still learn a lot from this free trial, understanding where the general population is when it comes to FSD adoption. We also have no idea how this Yippett company is accounting for people who have the trial end, but maybe they're going to wait a week or a few weeks to actually subscribe. It may not be accounting for that group of people. However, with all of that said, I think one of the most important things is we all need to come to terms with knowing that no matter how good version 12 is right now, again to the general public, it's not good enough to pay even $100 per month. So even if the take rate was actually 15 or 20%, that still leaves 80 to 85% of people that do not think it's good enough as it is right now.

而且特斯拉未来也不排除再次提供一个免费一个月的试用。他们可能会每个季度都提供一次，或者每次推出重大更新时都提供。因此，我认为我们在不久的将来可能会再次看到类似的活动。即使试用率实际上只在2%到5%之间，特斯拉仍将从这次免费试用中学到很多东西，了解全民在FSD采用方面的情况。我们也不清楚Yippett公司如何对待试用结束的人群，也许他们会等一周或几周后再订阅。它可能没有考虑到这一群人。然而，尽管这一切如此，我认为最重要的一点是，我们都需要明白，无论版本12现在有多好，再次强调对于普通大众来说，目前的水平还不足以支付甚至100美元每月的费用。因此，即使试用率实际上是15%或20%，仍有80%至85%的人认为当前还不够好。

Tesla released a schedule 14a telling us that they're actually spending some money to run some ads on both Google search and on X to encourage shareholders to vote for the upcoming shareholder meeting in the filing. They shared some of the ads they're running. They also released a letter to shareholders specifically highlighting voting for proposal three and proposal four, those ones being reincorporating in Texas and ratifying Elon's 2018 compensation plan. They also shared this fact sheet showing that since March of 2018, the total shareholder return in Tesla stock was 1,100%. Tesla also generated $15 billion in profit, which was a turnaround from a $2.2 billion loss. There's some people out there today that are upset Tesla is spending money on running ads like this.

特斯拉发布了一份14a计划表，告诉我们他们实际上花了一些钱在谷歌搜索和X上发布广告，以鼓励股东在提交的上市会议上投票。 他们分享了一些他们正在发布的广告。 他们还发布了一封专门强调投票支持第三项和第四项提案的股东信，这两项提案是在德克萨斯重新注册和批准埃隆2018年薪酬计划的提案。 他们还分享了一份事实表，显示自2018年3月以来，特斯拉股票的总股东回报率为1,100％。 特斯拉还实现了150亿美元的利润，这是从22亿美元的亏损扭亏为盈。 今天有一些人对特斯拉花钱在这样的广告上感到不满。

However, to that I would say two things. One, we have no idea how much money Tesla is spending on these ads. And two, I think the more important point, this just shows how important these upcoming votes are to the future of Tesla as a company. I've said it many times before, but I just think shareholders don't truly understand what the future of Tesla would look like without Elon and if Tesla were to remain incorporated in Delaware. I'll go on record again saying that if Elon's compensation plan vote goes south, just prepare for a lot of turmoil with Tesla stock ahead in that event. In my eyes, this action from Tesla all but confirms that notion.

然而，对此我想说两件事。一是我们不知道特斯拉在这些广告上花了多少钱。二是我认为更重要的一点是，这只是显示了即将举行的投票对特斯拉作为一家公司的未来有多重要。我之前说过很多次，但我只是觉得股东们并没有真正理解如果没有埃隆，特斯拉未来会是什么样子，以及如果特斯拉继续留在特拉华州开设公司会是什么情况。我再次声明，如果埃隆的薪酬计划投票不被通过，那么请准备好迎接特斯拉股票在未来可能出现的很多动荡。在我看来，特斯拉的这一举动几乎证实了这一观点。

The East Brandenburg Chamber of Commerce and Industry seized the protests against Tesla as a threat to the region's economic development. We just had one company settle here in the region that was a ray of hope for all young people who wanted to stay in the region. This will be permanently damaged by these actions. According to the current economic report, 80% of companies rate their situation as satisfactory or bad. The willingness to invest is also low. Translation, the protests against Tesla have further deterred investors in the region. The protests over the weekend did end on Sunday. However, some groups announced further actions. The Grunhida Municipal Council is expected to discuss the planned expansion of the Tesla site on Thursday.

东布兰登堡工商业联合会将针对特斯拉的抗议视为对该地区经济发展的威胁。我们刚刚有一家公司在这个地区落户，对所有希望留在这个地区的年轻人来说都是一束希望的光芒。这些行动将永久损害这一切。根据最新的经济报告，80%的公司评价自己的情况为令人满意或糟糕。投资意愿也很低。翻译过来就是，针对特斯拉的抗议进一步阻止了该地区的投资者。周末的抗议活动在周日结束。然而，一些团体宣布将采取进一步行动。格伦希达市议会预计将于周四讨论特斯拉工地的扩建计划。

We have Merrick Cubic who was the ex-founder of Fluence Energy with some interesting comments on battery energy storage. An overlooked milestone, cumulative stationary battery storage installed globally is set to overtake Pomp-Tydro in 2025. Just four years ago, in 2020 you can see the Pomp-Tydro in battery storage total market was 90% Pomp-Tydro. This year, that number is expected to be down to 56% for Pomp-Tydro and then the flip is expected to happen next year. Here's his takeaway. My intent here is only to correct a misconception of just how significant a role Bess is already playing in world power grids. Bess is now arguably just as mature and bankable of an asset class as Pomp-Tydro which has long been considered an energy storage gold standard of maturity. The difference for me is that Bess still has an exciting learning rate still ahead of it. Continued cost, density and performance improvements over time are guaranteed as it continues to scale, hence the hockey stick growth.

我们有Merrick Cubic，他是Fluence Energy的前创始人，对电池能量存储有一些有趣的评论。一个被忽视的里程碑是，到2025年，全球安装的累积静态电池储能量将超过Pomp-Tydro。仅仅四年前，在2020年，你可以看到电池储能总市场中的Pomp-Tydro占90%。而今年，预计Pomp-Tydro的比例会降至56%，然后预计明年会发生翻转。以下是他的观点。我的意图仅仅是纠正一个误解，即Bess已经在世界电网中扮演了多么重要的角色。Bess现在可能已经像Pomp-Tydro一样成熟和可靠，后者长期被认为是能量存储成熟度的黄金标准。对我来说，不同之处在于Bess仍然有令人兴奋的学习率。随着规模的扩大，随着时间的推移，成本、密度和性能的持续改进是有保障的，因此产生“曲棍球棒式”增长。

Tesla has again been sued by an environmental non-profit that accused Tesla of violating the Federal Clean Air Act hundreds of times by letting the plant in Fremont emit harmful pollutants. The Environmental Democracy Project has said Tesla has been exposing nearby residents and workers to excessive nitrogen oxides, arsenic, cadmium and other harmful chemicals. The non-profit wants an injunction to halt excess pollution plus civil fines of up to 121.3 thousand dollars per day per violation. You may recall back in February, Tesla paid 1.5 million dollars to settle a similar lawsuit. This time around the lawsuit is focusing mainly on the operations in Fremont when it comes to the paint shop.

特斯拉再次被一家环保非营利组织起诉，指控特斯拉让其在弗里蒙特工厂排放有害污染物，违反了《联邦清洁空气法》数百次。环境民主项目称，特斯拉一直暴露附近居民和工人于过量的氮氧化物、砷、镉等有害化学物质。该非营利组织要求采取禁令措施制止过量污染，以及按照每天每项违规最高121.3万美元的民事罚款。或许您还记得，今年2月，特斯拉支付了150万美元以解决一起类似诉讼。这次诉讼主要集中在弗里蒙特工厂的运营，特别是涉及喷漆车间。

Today the Biden administration has announced a major increase in tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar panels and some other materials as well. Chinese EVs will be subject to a 100% tariff 4 times the current 25% rate. Biden's economic advisor said the move is to offset China's unfair practices and subsidies into level the playing field for US automakers and auto workers. China is simply too big to play by its own rules. China is using the same playbook it has before to power its own growth at the expense of others by continuing to invest. Despite excess Chinese capacity and flooding global markets with exports that are under price due to unfair practices.

今天，拜登政府宣布将大幅提高对中国电动汽车、太阳能面板和其他一些材料的关税。中国电动汽车将面临100%的关税，是目前25%税率的4倍。拜登的经济顾问表示，此举旨在抵消中国不公平的做法和补贴，使美国汽车制造商和汽车工人能够在公平竞争的环境中发展。中国的规模太大，无法按照自己的规则行事。中国继续投资，利用之前的策略来推动自身增长，却让其他国家买单。尽管中国产能过剩，通过不公平做法出口价格低廉的产品，却仍在全球市场泛滥。

The tariff rate on solar cell and semiconductor imports from China will double to 50% while the rate on certain steel and aluminum imports will increase to 25% more than triple the current level. The hikes will take effect this year for EVs, steel and aluminum and solar cells and next year for semiconductors. Already China has said the US politicization and weaponization of economic and trade issues are typical examples of political maneuvering. China strongly expresses its dissatisfaction. It will seriously impact the bilateral relations. The US should immediately correct its wrong practices and cancel the tariff measures imposed on China. China will take resolute measures to defend its own rights and interests.

中国对从中国进口的太阳能电池和半导体产品的关税将翻倍至50%，而对某些钢铁和铝进口产品的关税率将增加至25%，是目前水平的三倍以上。这些提高将于今年对电动汽车、钢铁和铝以及太阳能电池生效，明年对半导体生效。中国已经表示，美国将经济和贸易问题政治化和武器化，是政治操纵的典型例子。中国强烈表示不满。这将严重影响双边关系。美国应立即纠正其错误做法并取消对中国实施的关税措施。中国将采取坚决措施捍卫自身权利和利益。

It's true that this will not have a major immediate impact because most of the major Chinese EV makers are not exporting their vehicles to the United States yet. And reading between the lines given the administration is doing this during an election year this most likely has more to do with politics and trying to win the battleground state of Michigan. This move is most likely to be celebrated by Detroit because if those Chinese EVs were to undercut the US auto market they most likely would suffer the most. Also part of this new tariff plan we have tariff rates going up for lithium ion EV batteries from China. The tariffs will rise from 7.5% to 25% this year.

这确实不会立即产生重大影响，因为大多数中国主要的电动汽车制造商尚未将他们的车辆出口到美国。考虑到政府在选举年这么做，很可能更多是出于政治原因，试图赢得密歇根州的关键战场。底特律很可能会因此举措而感到高兴，因为如果这些中国电动汽车打破美国汽车市场的定价，他们可能会遭受最大损失。此外，在这个新关税计划中，我们还将对来自中国的锂离子电动汽车电池征收关税率提高。关税将从今年的7.5％上涨到25％。

At the moment it's unclear exactly how all of this will play out but one thing to keep in mind for Tesla any batteries they're importing from CATL from China could be impacted from these new tariffs. The expectation right now is that when it comes to EVs that will be impacted there are only two. The poll starts to involve those S90 hybrid. And yes this move by the administration is not fully in line with transitioning the US to a sustainable economy but clearly the administration places a higher value on protecting the American workforce. The big question right now is how is China going to respond. This could be a problem for the US because if you go back to 2023 data you'll see the US had a $279 billion trade deficit for the year.

目前还不清楚所有的情况会如何发展，但一个要记住的事情是，对于特斯拉来说，从中国联芯导入的任何电池都可能受到这些新关税的影响。目前的预期是，在受影响的电动汽车方面，只有两种。投票开始涉及那些S90混动车型。是的，政府的这一举措并不完全符合将美国转向可持续经济的目标，但显然政府更看重保护美国工人。现在的一个重要问题是中国将如何回应。这可能会成为美国的一个问题，因为回到2023年的数据，你会看到美国当年出现了2790亿美元的贸易逆差。

So given the United States exports significantly less to China than it imports from China I think China has a bit more leverage here than the US would like to admit. Again though I think a lot of this is political as over the weekend Trump has proposed attacks of 200% on every car from Mexican plants. However that one would have significant impacts on the US auto market right out of the gate because Ford and GM and eventually Tesla will be making vehicles in Mexico. When it comes to that Trump comment I'm not sure he'd even be able to do that unless he were to repeal the entire NAFTA agreement which seems unlikely.

鉴于美国向中国出口的货物远远少于从中国进口的货物，我认为中国在这方面比美国更具有筹码。不过，我认为这很大程度上是政治因素，因为特朗普在周末提出对来自墨西哥工厂生产的每辆汽车征收200%的关税。然而，这个举措对美国汽车市场将产生重大影响，因为福特、通用和最终特斯拉将在墨西哥生产汽车。至于特朗普的评论，我不确定他是否能够做到这一点，除非废除整个北美自由贸易协定，这似乎是不太可能的。

Also the tariff rate for battery parts will increase from 7.5 to 25% this year tariffs for natural graphite and permanent magnets will go from 0 to 25% in 2026 and tariffs for certain critical minerals will go from 0 to 25% this year. As part of the move Biden has vowed that the US will never allow Beijing to unfairly control the market for EVs saying China heavily subsidized all these products pushing Chinese companies to produce far more than the rest of the world can absorb and then dumping the excess products onto the market at unfairly low prices driving other manufacturers around the world out of business. And frustratingly the Trump campaign said Biden's action today is a week in futile attempt to distract from the grievous harm his insane EV mandate is doing to the US auto industry and how his radical policies are wiping out thousands of American auto jobs. Trust me I'm not at all getting political here but just sticking to the facts you can certainly make the counterpoint that the inflation reduction act has brought thousands of new jobs to the United States which are all very closely related to the EV industry. We've been talking about it all year the political posturing is in full effect and we should expect it for the next few months. For now I'll just say it's a guarantee that this is not the end of the story now China is up to bat.

此外，今年电池零部件的关税税率将从7.5%提高至25%，天然石墨和永磁铁矿石的关税将于2026年从0%提高至25%，某些关键矿物的关税将于今年从0%提高至25%。拜登承诺美国永远不会允许北京不公平控制电动车市场，称中国大幅补贴这些产品，推动中国公司生产远远超过全球市场需求后，将剩余产品以不公平低价倾销到市场上，迫使全球其他制造商破产。令人沮丧的是，特朗普竞选团队表示，拜登今天的行动是毫无意义的苦闷尝试，试图转移关注他对美国汽车行业造成的严重伤害以及他的激进政策正在摧毁数以千计的美国汽车工作岗位。相信我，我这里并没有涉及政治，只是坚守事实，您当然可以反驳通货膨胀减缓法案为美国带来了数千个与电动车行业密切相关的新工作。我们整年都在谈论这个问题，政治姿态正在充分发挥作用，我们应该预计未来几个月情况将继续如此。目前，我只能说，可以保证这并不是故事的终结，现在轮到中国上场了。

This one is squarely in the rumor mill but Tesla Chan is saying the image is speculated to be the center console of an upgraded model Y vehicle potentially project Juniper. The main difference would be the chrome trim around the wireless charging pad. I believe this is from Shanghai but either way we're most likely going to have 3-6 months of leaks and speculation and sightings before the actual launch of Model Y Juniper. We have the sympathy strikes against Tesla in Sweden actually ramping up Sweden's biggest union today through its weight behind the strike. Yif Matal said the strike is ongoing and we have no signs of reaching an agreement in the near future. More than a dozen unions have launched action in support of Yif Matal with Unionen the latest and the biggest. Unionen began a blockade on Tuesday affecting work for Tesla when it comes to equipment inspections. They said if Tesla seeks to circumvent the blockade by hiring other providers Unionen was prepared to do more. The good news despite all of these sympathy strikes Tesla's new vehicle registrations in Sweden have broadly kept pace with the market. Only Elon did say that these strikes in Sweden are largely in the past but now some of the largest unions in the area are trying to prove him wrong.

这则消息纯属传言，但特斯拉长（Tesla Chan）称这张图片被认为是经过升级的Model Y车型的中控台，可能是Juniper项目。主要区别在于无线充电板周围的镀铬装饰。我认为这可能来自上海，但无论如何，在Model Y Juniper真正发布之前，我们很可能会经历3-6个月的泄霩、猜测和目击事件。实际情况是，在瑞典，对特斯拉的同情罢工实际上在升级，瑞典最大的工会今日力挺这场罢工。Yif Matal表示罢工仍在继续，我们尚无迹象表明在不久的将来会达成协议。十几个工会已经发起了支持Yif Matal的行动，而最新的、最大的是Unionen。Unionen于周二开始了封锁，影响了特斯拉在设备检验方面的工作。他们表示，如果特斯拉试图通过雇用其他供应商来规避封锁，Unionen已准备好采取更多行动。好消息是，尽管所有这些同情罢工，特斯拉在瑞典的新车注册量与市场基本持平。Elon曾表示，瑞典的这些罢工基本上已经成为过去，但现在该地区一些最大的工会正试图证明他是错误的。

Tesla has filed the Model 3 performance with the MIIT in China which is the last major regulatory hurdle before the car can be officially sold in China. This also matters for Canadians because it looks like they'll be receiving the Model 3 performance from Giga Shanghai not from Fremont. Charlie Billello gave us an update on the used Tesla vehicle market we're now down to a record low of $31.1,000. However it appears as though we're approaching a local minimum as for the past few weeks this number has flattened out. Unless Tesla enacts more price cuts for new vehicles and or their next gen lower price vehicles begin hitting the used market this number for Tesla could stabilize right around $30,000 and maybe hold above it. Thanks for my people in New Hampshire if you missed it you're about to get your first Tesla dealership and service center it's currently under construction. The goal is to open by the end of the year.

特斯拉已向中国工信部提交了Model 3性能车型，这是在汽车正式在中国销售之前的最后一个重要的监管障碍。对加拿大人来说也很重要，因为看起来他们将从上海超级工厂而不是弗里蒙特工厂接收Model 3性能车型。查理·比勒洛更新了我们关于二手特斯拉车辆市场的信息，现在价格已经降至创纪录的31.1万美元。然而，似乎我们正接近当地价格的最低点，因为过去几周这个数字已经趋于稳定。除非特斯拉对新车实施更多的价格削减，或者他们的下一代价格更低的车辆开始进入二手市场，否则特斯拉的价格可能稳定在30,000美元左右，并且可能会保持在这个水平以上。感谢新罕布什尔州的人们，如果你错过了，你即将拥有你的第一个特斯拉经销商和服务中心，目前正在建设中。目标是在年底前开业。

Cox Automotive did a 2024 EV adoption study and they said a second significant wave of shoppers ready to consider buying an EV is poised to begin entering the market in the second half of the decade. They said while we've seen EV sales growth slow and consideration dip we believe this is part of a normal growth curve and not the end of the story. We remain bullish on the long term future of EV sales in America as many skeptics today will be carefully considering an EV by the end of the decade. With more infrastructure, education and technological innovation and improvements we believe EV sales will continue to grow in the long term. The study projects EV consideration will notably increase in 3-5 years with 54% of current skeptics expected to become active EV considers. Within 10 years 80% of today's skeptics will have become EV considers.

考克斯汽车进行了一项2024年电动汽车采用研究，他们表示，第二波愿意考虑购买电动汽车的重要购物者即将在本十年下半年进入市场。他们说，虽然我们看到电动汽车销量增长放缓，考虑减少，但我们认为这是正常增长曲线的一部分，而不是故事的结局。我们对美国电动汽车销售的长期未来保持乐观，因为今天的许多怀疑者将在本十年结束时仔细考虑购买电动汽车。随着更多的基础设施、教育和技术创新与改进，我们相信电动汽车销售将在长期内继续增长。该研究预计，在3-5年内，电动汽车的考虑将显著增加，当前54%的怀疑者有望成为主动的电动汽车考虑者。在未来10年内，80%的如今怀疑者将成为电动汽车的考虑者。

Currently only 45% of consumers in market for a vehicle within the next 12 months say they're considering an EV that's down from 51% last year. While current EV ownership is heavily tilted toward luxury and high earning households, the study shows the EV market is casting a wider net attracting Gen Z, multicultural and less affluent shoppers. In 2021 62% of EV considers were looking at used EVs. Today 77% are considering used EVs. Meanwhile Ford continues to be the most considered EV maker not named Tesla. Still apart from Tesla a majority of vehicle shoppers are not even aware of EV offerings from other major automakers.

目前，只有45%的消费者在未来12个月内考虑购买汽车，表示他们正在考虑购买电动汽车，而去年这一比例为51%。尽管当前的电动汽车拥有率主要集中在奢侈和高收入家庭，但研究显示电动汽车市场正在吸引更广泛的消费群体，吸引了Z世代、多元文化和收入较低的购物者。2021年，62%的购买电动汽车的人考虑购买二手电动汽车，而如今77%的人考虑购买二手电动汽车。与此同时，福特继续是除特斯拉以外最受欢迎的电动汽车制造商。然而，除了特斯拉以外，大多数购车者甚至不知道其他主要汽车制造商的电动汽车产品。

The survey included 2.6,000 American vehicle shoppers and it was done in quarter one of this year. Their methodology was structured to capture a broad spectrum of demographic variables including age, income, geography and current vehicle ownership. We got the final Tesla China data for April. We're looking at 63.7,000 units produced, 31.4,000 domestic, 30.7,000 export for a total wholesale of 62.1,000 for the month. Thus adding up the wholesale figure for January through April of this year we're currently 7.8% behind the pace of January through April of 2023. We also got the weekly Tesla China data it came in at 9,800 comparing that to the same week in quarter one that number was 5,600. So Tesla making up a bit of ground quarter over quarter but we're still down 4.6% quarter over quarter. And looking at the year over year figure Tesla is down 13.9%.

这项调查包括了2.6万名美国汽车购物者，是在今年第一季度进行的。他们的方法论被设计成捕捉包括年龄、收入、地理位置和当前车辆拥有情况在内的广泛族群变量。我们得到了四月份的最终特斯拉中国数据。我们看到有63.7万辆汽车生产，国内销售31.4万辆，出口销售30.7万辆，当月批发总量为62.1万辆。因此，加总今年一月到四月份的批发数，我们目前比2023年一月到四月份的速度慢了7.8%。我们还获得了特斯拉中国每周数据，这一周出售了9800辆车，与第一季度同一周相比，这个数字是5600。因此，特斯拉季度内稍微追赶了一些，但是季度内还是下降了4.6%。从年度数据来看，特斯拉下降了13.9%。

Just to show a quick example for the impact of Tesla's 0.99% financing for the Model Y for this month. Using these assumptions right here on the left your monthly payment would be $891. Then using those same assumptions but dropping the interest rate down to 0.99% from 7% before your monthly payment goes down to $769. However, what most financially literate people actually look at is the total cost of the loan with the 0.99% financing you're looking at $57.6,000 over 5 years. Compare that to $64.9,000 with 7% financing everything else setter as parabas. Thus with this offer from Tesla that individual would be saving over $7,000 over the life of the loan.

只是为了快速展示特斯拉本月对Model Y提供的0.99%融资的影响的一个简单例子。根据左侧的这些假设，您的月付款将为891美元。然后使用相同的假设，但将利率从之前的7%降至0.99%，您的月付款将降至769美元。然而，大多数财务知识丰富的人实际上关注的是贷款的总成本，通过0.99%的融资，您将在5年内支付57.6万美元。将其与7%融资的64.9万美元相比，其他一切都作为基准。因此，通过特斯拉的这个优惠，这个个人在贷款期间将节省超过7,000美元。

Tesla has appointed Bon Egleston as the new head of the 4680 program. He's been tasked with driving down 4680 production costs significantly. His mandate includes not only continuing production without further layoffs but also ensuring Tesla's 4680s become cheaper than those offered by major suppliers like Panasonic and LG by the end of the year. But listening to the Q1 call it sounded like Tesla was already on track to pull that off by the end of this year. I also disagree with what drive Tesla said later in the article in that 4680s are also expected to power future models like the RoboTaxi CyberCab. At this point, at least to start, I think that's unlikely as the CyberCab will most likely use LFP selves and to our knowledge Tesla is not making 4680s with LFP tech inside.

特斯拉已任命邦·埃格尔斯顿为4680项目的新负责人。他的任务是显著降低4680生产成本。他的任务不仅包括继续生产而不再进行裁员，还包括确保特斯拉的4680电池比像松下和LG这样的主要供应商提供的更便宜，直到年底。但从第一季度电话会议的讨论中可以听出，特斯拉似乎已经在今年年底前实现了这一目标。我还不同意在文章后面特斯拉所说的4680电池还将被用于未来车型如RoboTaxi CyberCab。至少从现在来看，我认为这是不太可能的，因为CyberCab很可能会使用LFP电池，据我们所知，特斯拉并没有在4680电池里使用LFP技术。

They also said if Tesla does not drop costs by the end of the year that a failure to do so might lead to Tesla reconsidering the viability of the entire 4680 program. They've invested too much, they've come too far, they've made too much progress to stop at this point, even if they missed their goals they'll continue to make the program better. Bond has been at Tesla now for over 7 years working mainly on cell manufacturing. Mercedes who originally wanted to go all EV by 2030 is now saying they're stopping development of their MB.EA large platform. The reason for this is disappointing sales figures for current luxury electric cars. Now like many others, Mercedes is saying we will be able to flexibly offer vehicles with both fully electric systems and electrified high tech combustion engines well into the 2030s.

他们还说，如果特斯拉到年底还没有降低成本，那么未能做到这一点可能会导致特斯拉重新考虑整个4680项目的可行性。他们已经投入了太多，走了太远，取得了太多进展，现在不可能就此停下来，即使他们没有达到目标，他们也会继续改进这个项目。邦德目前在特斯拉工作已经超过7年，主要负责电池制造。梅赛德斯最初希望在2030年前完全转向电动汽车，现在却表示他们停止了MB.EA大型平台的开发。原因是目前豪华电动车的销售表现不佳。现在像许多其他汽车制造商一样，梅赛德斯表示他们将能够在2030年代灵活地提供既具备完全电动系统又具备电动化高技术燃油发动机的汽车。

Kyle Vogt, the former cruise CEO, has launched a new company, the bot company focusing on humanoid robots for in-home sale, has teamed up with some former Tesla employees and they just raised $150 million. The bot company is already valued at $550 million. The startup aims to create home robots capable of handling household chores like cleaning and laundry. The company's business model is centered on selling these robots directly to consumers with the added feature of customization through a discord like chat server. As mentioned, Kyle Vogt is teaming up with former Tesla tech lead and manager for AI, Paril Jain. At Tesla, Paril was leading the planning, imitation learning and reinforcement learning team for Tesla AI. His team was focused on building the foundation models for autonomy that can scale to vehicle as well as humanoid platforms.

前邮轮CEO凯尔·沃格特已经推出了一家新公司，这家机器人公司专注于为居家销售的人形机器人，他已与一些前特斯拉员工合作，并且刚刚筹集了1.5亿美元。这家机器人公司目前价值5.5亿美元。这家初创公司旨在开发能够处理家务事的家用机器人，如清洁和洗衣。该公司的业务模式是直接向消费者销售这些机器人，并通过类似discord的聊天服务器进行定制。正如所提到的，凯尔·沃格特正在与前特斯拉技术主管和人工智能经理帕里尔·詹合作。在特斯拉，帕里尔曾领导规划、模仿学习和强化学习团队，为特斯拉的人工智能建立了基础模型。他的团队致力于打造能够适应车辆和人形平台的自主驾驶基础模型。

And then on X, Paril announced his move. He said as for Tesla, talking about version 12, it finally seems closer than ever to a robotaxi. While I had always planned to help Tesla get to the final destination of global deployment of robotaxis, I think it's time to accelerate the rest of the robotics industry and build more bots that give people time back. You will love the upcoming versions of V12 and obviously actually SmartSummon. The team is on an amazing trajectory to continue pushing forward more improvements on the road to being driverless. And don't miss what McHale said who also just left Tesla. Tesla will achieve self-driving and have the biggest autonomous fleet in the world.

然后在X上，帕里尔宣布了他的决定。他说关于特斯拉，谈到12版本，它似乎比以往任何时候都更接近机器出租车。虽然我一直计划帮助特斯拉实现机器出租车全球部署的最终目标，但我认为现在是加快其余机器人行业发展，建造更多可以节省人们时间的机器人的时候了。你会喜欢即将推出的V12版本，当然也会喜欢智能引导功能。团队正朝着让无人驾驶更进一步的发展轨迹前进。不要错过麦克海尔的发言，他也刚刚离开了特斯拉。特斯拉将实现无人驾驶并拥有世界上最大的自动驾驶车队。

This became obvious to us internally in the past few years and is becoming obvious to everyone else as FSD rolls out. We got a counterpoint from George Hott saying, It's like investors learn no lessons from the graveyard of self-driving car companies and now we have to speed run it again for humanoid robots. The same scammers will profit and the same public will lose. To which Kyle Vot said aside, George said you aren't as bad as figure robot but still give 130 million back, drop the hype narrative and ship an incrementally useful product. To which Paril said, ship an incrementally useful product on it. NHTSA has now opened an investigation into Waymo thanks to 22 incidents in which the company's cars were involved in collisions or may have violated traffic laws. The word is, Waymo vehicles have crashed into objects like gates, chains and parked cars. This probe covers an estimated 444 vehicles.

这在过去几年对我们内部变得明显，随着FSD推出，对所有人也变得明显起来。我们收到了George Hott的观点，他说：“投资者似乎没有从那些自动驾驶汽车公司的坟墓中吸取教训，现在我们又不得不为人形机器人加速奔跑。”同样的骗子会获利，同样的公众会受损。Kyle Vot则在一旁说，George说你不像机器人一样糟糕，但还是要退还1.3亿美元，摒弃炒作叙述，推出一个渐进式有用的产品。Paril补充说，把渐进式有用的产品上市吧。现在NHTSA已经针对Waymo展开调查，因为公司的车辆涉及了22起碰撞事件或可能违反交通法规。消息传出说，Waymo的车辆曾撞到过门、链条和停放的车辆等物体。此次调查涵盖了约444辆车辆。

Just to clear the air on this one from yesterday, Tesla hiring back, some of the roughly 500 members of the supercharger team that were let go. Chief among the personnel coming back is Max Dezegar, the director for charging for North America. He was one of the top managers after Rebecca Tanucci. It's still not immediately clear how many laid off workers have been rehired. In case you did not have a chance to read the Musk biography, this is just how he operates. His philosophy has always been to delete, cut and remove as much as you can, whether it's from a product, the workforce or a process. The thinking goes, if you're not looking to add back roughly 10% of what you cut, then you didn't cut enough in the first place. That's because once you make those mass cuts, then you can actually see where problems crop up and where you actually need people, aka who or what is essential.

为了澄清昨天的事情，特斯拉正在重新雇佣大约500名超级充电团队的一些成员。其中重要的人员包括北美充电主管马克斯·德泽加。他是继丽贝卡·塔努奇之后的高级经理之一。目前还不清楚有多少被裁员的员工已经被重新雇佣。 如果你没有机会读马斯克的传记，这就是他的操作方式。他的哲学一直是删除、削减，尽可能地去除，无论是产品、工作人员还是流程。思想是，如果你不打算重新增加大约削减的10%，那么你一开始就没有削减足够。这是因为一旦进行大规模削减，你就能看到问题出现的地方，了解实际上需要什么人或什么是必不可少的。

Case in point, what Elon did with Twitter. When in, laid off a majority of the staff and then started hiring people back slowly. How about a Tesla example. There was a time when Elon said he was going to close most of the retail stores, but just a few days later, Elon then backtracked on that decision. Don't forget, at the time this was March 2019 and analysts said the seemingly spontaneous yet dramatically altering strategic decisions does not lend to a lot of confidence. A friendly reminder, since March 2019, Tesla stock is up over 893%. The exact same thing is happening today. Plenty of people are doubting Elon and his judgment saying that he's making rash decisions, the same thing people were saying over 4 years ago. As it turned out, Tesla did just fine over the last 4-5 years.

拿埃隆在Twitter上的举动来举例。在一次裁员之后，他开始慢慢重新起用员工。再举个特斯拉的例子。曾经有一段时间，埃隆表示将关闭大部分的零售店，但几天后又改变了主意。不要忘记，那时是2019年3月，分析师表示这种看似突发但又戏剧性地改变战略决定并不会带来很多信心。友情提醒，自2019年3月以来，特斯拉股价上涨了超过893%。今天也正发生着同样的事情。许多人怀疑埃隆和他的判断，认为他做出了仓促的决定，而四年前人们也是这么说的。事实证明，在过去的四五年里，特斯拉表现得非常出色。

Porsche is planning to roll out a hybrid version of the 911 and it looks like it'll make it stay view later this month. When Ford said it was going to cut around $12 billion in EV spending, things like this should be expected, Ford has now begun cutting orders from battery suppliers to stem EV losses. For what it's worth, CATL said its cooperation with Ford is moving forward as normal. Stellantis and Leet Motor put out a press release saying that their joint venture is now complete 51% for Stellantis. The companies are now laying the groundwork for their T03 and C10 vehicles first in European markets, then expanding to India and Asia Pacific. The gist of the partnership will be Leet Motors technology and products along with Stellantis supporting in areas like overseas channels, services and marketing. Stellantis has said this move is only going to be complementary to their own EV plans, but you don't partner with an EV maker from China if you're overly confident about your own EV prowess. Yes, there can be strategic benefits, but oftentimes these joint ventures can bring unnecessary levels of complication.

保时捷计划推出911的混合动力版本，看起来可能会在本月晚些时候推出。当福特表示将削减大约120亿美元的电动车投资时，很可能会出现这样的情况，福特现在已经开始减少从电池供应商那里的订单以抑制电动车的亏损。就现在的情况来说，国家电动汽车公司表示与福特的合作正在正常进行。斯泰兰蒂斯和利特汽车发表声明称，他们的合资已经完成，斯泰兰蒂斯持有51%的股份。这两家公司现在正在为在欧洲市场首先推出他们的T03和C10车型做准备，然后将扩展到印度和亚太地区。合作的主要内容将是利特汽车的技术和产品，以及斯泰兰蒂斯在海外渠道、服务和营销等领域的支持。斯泰兰蒂斯表示，这一举措只会对他们自己的电动车计划起到补充作用，但如果对自己的电动车技术能力过于自信，就不会与中国的电动车制造商合作。是的，合作可能会带来战略上的好处，但通常这些合资企业会带来不必要的复杂性。

Crews said starting this week its AVs will begin supervised autonomous driving in Phoenix. To begin, these rides will have a safety driver present. This will be a testing and a validation phase. They've talked about their over 5 million driverless miles before, and they said they'll begin supervised autonomous driving in Phoenix and will gradually expand to Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Tempe, Mesa, Gilbert and Chandler. Rivian has informed state officials it plans more layoffs in California. It's planning to lay off more than 120 employees, including 89 in Irvine and 28 in Palo Alto. The job losses will begin in June. US sales of Volvo's battery powered XC40 recharge and C40 crossovers plummeted 65% in the first quarter to just 970 vehicles. The owner of Volvo Cars in Memphis said dealers are accepting fewer EVs from the factory saying we just don't see the consumer interested in EVs. Volvo has adjusted to reality by dialing back EV supply while ramping up plug-in hybrid vehicle allocations. In the first four months of the year, Volvo's plug-in hybrid sales in the US surged 55% to 10.1.

克鲁斯表示，从本周开始，他们的自动驾驶汽车将在凤凰城进行受监督的自主驾驶。起初，这些乘车将有安全驾驶员陪同。这将是一个测试和验证阶段。他们谈到了他们过去行驶的500万英里，他们说他们将在凤凰城开始受监督的自动驾驶，并逐渐扩展到斯科茨代尔、天堂谷、坦佩、梅萨、吉尔伯特和钱德勒。Rivian已经通知州官员他们计划在加利福尼亚进行更多裁员。他们计划裁员超过120名员工，其中89名在尔湾，28名在帕洛阿尔托。裁员将于六月开始。沃尔沃的XC40充电版和C40跨界车在美国的销量在第一季度下降了65%，仅为970辆。孟菲斯的沃尔沃汽车经销商表示，由于我们看不到消费者对电动汽车感兴趣，他们正在接受工厂生产的电动汽车的数量减少。沃尔沃已经调整了现实情况，减少了电动汽车供应，同时增加了插电混合动力汽车的分配。今年前四个月，沃尔沃在美国的插电混合动力汽车销量激增了55%，达到了10.1辆。

Carnival Corporation, the world's largest cruise company today announced 100% of its ships across the global fleet are equipped with Starlink. The upgrade rivals on land connectivity experiences. The added bandwidth also boosts each ship's operational and communications capabilities with more continuous onboard equipment monitoring and real-time connectivity and data sharing between ship and shore teams, along with the enhanced versatility to more quickly roll out new guest services and features. Tesla stock closed the day at $177.55 up 3.29% while the Nasdaq was up 0.75%. It was a lower volume day for Tesla trading about 16 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. And in case you missed this meme from Elon about Reuters, I had to share it as I was actually LOLing when I saw it. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

嘉年华集团，世界上最大的游轮公司，今天宣布全球舰队的100% 船只都安装了Starlink。 这一升级使其在陆地网络连接体验方面具有竞争力。增加的带宽还提升了每艘船的操作和通信能力，实现了更持续的船上设备监控以及船舶和岸上团队之间的实时连接和数据共享，同时增强了更快推出新客户服务和功能的灵活性。 特斯拉股票收盘价为177.55美元，上涨3.29%，纳斯达克指数上涨了0.75%。 特斯拉的交易量较低，约为过去30天平均交易量的1600万股以下。 如果你错过了埃隆关于路透社的梗，我分享给大家，当我看到时实际上是哈哈大笑。 希望你们有一个美好的一天。 如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。 您可以在下方找到我的X链接，对所有赞助我的Patreon支持者表示衷心的感谢。