Tony Seba Predicts Humanoid Disruption / Munro's All-Time Tesla Rant / Warren Buffett and TSLA ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Elonimus, quick shout out to my newest patrons, are now Jay and GHV. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Tony Siba and Rethinkx put out a new blog post about humanoid robots and as we've said numerous times on the channel over the past few years when Tony Siba says something it would be wise for us to listen. That's because dating back for a decade plus now, Siba's predictions about EV adoption and battery prices among many other disruptive technologies have been incredibly accurate. When Rethinkx talks about a disruption X-curve, it adds the S-curve of the new technology adoption to the old technology quickly falling out of favor.

欢迎来到《电气化》，我是您的主持人Elonimus，对我的最新赞助人Jay和GHV表示感谢。感谢您选择支持本频道。Tony Siba和Rethinkx发布了一篇关于人形机器人的新博客文章，正如我们在过去几年频道里多次提到的，当Tony Siba说些什么时，我们最好听从。这是因为十多年来，Siba关于电动汽车采用和电池价格等许多其他颠覆性技术的预测都非常准确。当Rethinkx谈到一个颠覆性的X曲线时，它将新技术采用的S曲线和旧技术迅速失宠相结合。

Siba said over the next 15 to 20 years humanoid robots will disrupt human labor throughout hundreds of industries across every major sector of the global economy. This represents one of the greatest opportunities and greatest challenges our civilization has ever faced. Consider a humanoid robot with a total lifetime cost of $200,000 that works 20,000 hours before decommissioning. Its labor cost would be $10 per hour. Even at this relatively high cost point, humanoid robots are already competitive with human labor in a substantial fraction of the global economy. In reality, lifetime costs of humanoid robots are likely to be far less than $200,000 right from the start.

Siba说，在接下来的15到20年内，人形机器人将在全球经济的各个主要行业中破坏人类劳动力。这代表了我们文明所面临的最大机遇和最大挑战之一。考虑一个人形机器人的总寿命成本为20万美元，工作时长为2万小时，然后被停用。它的劳动成本将是每小时10美元。即使在这个相对较高的成本点上，人形机器人已经在全球经济的相当大一部分领域与人类劳动力竞争。事实上，人形机器人的寿命成本很可能从一开始就远低于20万美元。

I'd add those are fairly conservative assumptions because there are 8,760 hours in a year so if each bot only works 20,000 hours before decommissioning, that's only roughly three years. Humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost capability of under $10 per hour for their labor on a trajectory to under $1 per hour before 2035 and under $10 per hour before 2045. Tony's expecting these humanoids to work around 7,000 hours per year which would be 80% of the available hours in a year. At first, humanoids will only be able to perform relatively simple tasks but with each day that passes their capabilities will grow, until by the 2040s they'll be able to do virtually anything a human can do and much more besides.

这些预测是相当保守的，因为一年有8,760个小时，所以如果每个机器人只能在报废前工作20,000个小时，那只大约是三年时间。人形机器人将以每小时不到10美元的成本能力进入市场，预计到2035年之前将降至每小时不到1美元，到2045年之前将降至每小时不到10美元。托尼预计这些人形机器人每年能工作大约7,000个小时，这将占一年中可用时间的80%。起初，人形机器人只能执行相对简单的任务，但随着时间的推移，它们的能力将不断增长，直到在2040年代，它们将能够几乎做任何人类能做的事情，甚至更多。

When it comes to disruptions, the response from incumbents is predictable. They mock the new technology for being lower performing while ignoring the rate at which the new technology gets both better and cheaper until it's too late to respond and they face collapse. It's impossible to know in advance the full extent of this labor disruption but the key feature is the marginal cost of labor will rapidly approach zero. We must expect and plan for a sweeping tide of supply driven, not demand driven deflationary pressure across the entire global economy as a function of the disruption of labor by humanoid robots. AKA an abundance of high quality goods increasing the supply and if demand stays static prices come down. Instead of growing only as fast as a human population, available labor can now grow as fast as humanoid robots can be built and deployed, the difference is explosive.

在面对颠覆时，现有企业的反应是可以预测的。他们嘲笑新技术性能低劣，却忽视了新技术的改进和降价速度直到为时已晚，他们面临崩溃。我们无法预先知道这种劳动力颠覆的全面影响，但关键特征是劳动力的边际成本将迅速接近零。我们必须预料并计划应对劳动力被人形机器人扰乱所带来的全球经济被供给驱动而非需求驱动的通缩压力浪潮。也就是说，优质商品供应增加，如果需求保持不变，价格会下降。现在，可用劳动力增长的速度不再受限于人口增长速度，而是受限于人形机器人的建造和部署速度，这种差异是爆炸性的。

It takes almost 20 years and more than $100,000 to raise a child and prepare them to join the national workforce of a middle income country. Humanoids on the other hand can be added to the workforce as fast as they can be manufactured and it's unlikely their unit cost will exceed that of an inexpensive car even at the very start of commercial deployment. This means that by 2035, adding 1 million people to a nation's workforce might cost $100 billion and take 20 years. Whereas adding 1 million humanoid robots to its workforce might cost just $10 billion and take one single year. Humanoid robots are likely to be one of the most profitable physical product categories ever by virtue of the sheer scale of their production numbers alone.

在一个中等收入国家，养育一个孩子并为他们准备加入国家劳动力市场需要近20年的时间和超过100,000美元的费用。另一方面，人形机器人可以像生产汽车一样快速地加入劳动力市场，而且在商业部署的初期，它们的单位成本不太可能超过一辆廉价汽车。这意味着到2035年，向一个国家的劳动力市场增加100万人可能需要1000亿美元并耗时20年。而向其劳动力市场增加100万个人形机器人可能只需要100亿美元并耗时仅一年。单单从生产数量来看，人形机器人很可能成为有史以来最赚钱的物理产品类别之一。

It's reasonable to expect the number of humanoid robots deployed to exceed 1 billion over the next two decades and possibly much more. If the rate of cost capability improvement in humanoid robots continues as it has been, we will enter an era of material, super abundance and prosperity over the next 10 to 20 years that has hitherto been all but unimaginable outside of science fiction. Much of the value as well as the competitive advantage of humanoid robots from the very start will be in their deployment at scale. This is crucial to keep in mind with all of these startup humanoid companies, which of those will have the best chance at producing these at scale. The humanoid form is a clear choice for facilitating large scale data gathering because humans themselves can facilitate the collection of the needed data.

人类型机器人的数量在未来二十年很可能会超过10亿台，甚至可能更多。如果人类型机器人的成本性能改进速度继续保持，我们将在未来10到20年内进入一个材料、超级丰富和繁荣的时代，这在科幻小说以外几乎难以想象。从一开始，人类型机器人的价值和竞争优势大部分将体现在其大规模部署上。重要的是牢记，所有这些初创公司中，哪家有最好的机会大规模生产。人类形态是促进大规模数据收集的明显选择，因为人类本身可以促成所需数据的收集。

Unlike a human, a robot can work in completely different environments on completely different tasks from one day to the next. A factory one day, a restaurant the next, a battlefield the day after that because re-skilling is as simple as downloading a software update. The ease of re-skilling and redeploying robots therefore greatly increases the value of the general purpose form relative to specialized forms. It is almost impossible to overstate how radical this transformation of the human condition will be. It also means widespread public concern about technological employment from AI and robotics remains entirely valid in the longer term from perhaps the late 2030s onward. Without very thoughtful decision making among leadership in every domain and very likely a rethinking of the basic social contract across society itself, the destabilization caused by the disruption of labor could well be catastrophic.

与人类不同，机器人可以在每天的工作中在完全不同的环境中完成完全不同的任务。 一天是在工厂，下一天是在餐厅，第二天则是在战场，因为重新培训就像下载软件更新一样简单。 因此，重新培训和重新部署机器人的便利性大大增加了通用形式相对于专门形式的价值。 人类境况的这种根本性转变几乎是无法言喻的。这也意味着对人工智能和机器人技术就业的广泛公众关切，从2030年代末可能延续至长期。 如果在每个领域的领导层中没有非常深思熟虑的决策，并且很可能是在整个社会中重新思考基本社会契约，那么劳动力中断所造成的不稳定可能会是灾难性的。

It will be very tempting for policy makers, industry leaders and others to pretend that humanoid robotics will never cause an unemployment crisis just as we have seen incumbents pretend that other disruptions throughout history pose no threat to the status quo. But this would be a terrible mistake and would lead to enormous suffering and chaos when human labor markets do finally begin to collapse with no hope of recovery. It would also be a mistake to ban humanoid robots to preserve jobs, although we're almost certain to see calls for this because this would lead to a vicious cycle of diminishing competitiveness, prolonged scarcity, economic stagnation and ultimately societal ills ranging from poverty to civil unrest and much else. At the beginning of the disruption, when demand still vastly exceeds supply, no single producer will be able to capture all markets. So even though the leading technology developers in the humanoid robot sector might limit their humanoid robots to deployment in factories or to lease only user agreements, there will be so much demand for humanoid robots that other firms lower on the leaderboard will still enjoy huge opportunities to step in and target other markets with other business models as well.

政策制定者、行业领袖和其他人很容易陷入诱惑，假装人形机器人永远不会引起失业危机，就像我们看到的现任者假装历史上的其他颠覆不会对现状构成威胁一样。但这将是一个严重错误，当人力市场最终开始崩溃而无法恢复希望时，将导致巨大的苦难和混乱。禁止人形机器人以保护就业岗位也是一个错误，尽管我们几乎可以肯定会有呼吁这样做的声音，因为这将导致竞争力的恶性循环、长期的匮乏、经济停滞，最终导致从贫困到社会动荡等社会问题。在颠覆开始阶段，需求仍然远远超过供应，没有单个生产商能够占领所有市场。因此，即使人形机器人领域的领先技术开发者可能将他们的人形机器人限制在工厂部署或仅供租赁用户协议，但对人形机器人的需求将如此巨大，其他排名较低的公司仍将有机会涌现并以其他商业模式瞄准其他市场。

Finally the disruption of labor is inevitable and together with the disruptions of energy, transportation and food, it could herald a new age of unprecedented freedom and prosperity. But only if we're willing to experiment to learn and to transcend the limits of the past starting right now. I can't think of a better segue for the optimist video that Tesla released over the weekend. The neural net for optimists is running in real time on the bots FSD computer, so yes that's inference compute, the same as Tesla vehicles. Long term this will be a beautiful thing for economies of scale. Optimists is also able to recover autonomously from its failures and the training data collected right now is via human teleoperation and it's scaled across their fleet for a variety of different tasks.

最终，劳动力的混乱是不可避免的，与能源、交通和食品的混乱一起，这可能预示着一个前所未有的自由和繁荣的新时代。但前提是我们必须愿意去尝试、学习，并超越过去的限制，从现在开始。我想不出一个比特斯拉周末发布的乐观主义视频更好的过渡了。乐观主义的神经网络正在实时运行在FSD计算机上，是的，那是推断计算，与特斯拉车辆一样。长期来看，这将对规模经济带来美好的事物。乐观者还能自主从失败中恢复过来，目前收集的训练数据是通过人类远程操作的，并将在他们的车队中应用于各种不同的任务。

In the video you'll see optimists sorting battery cells but it was also folding laundry and it was grabbing something in a home storage type setup with a stove pot in the scene and some dish scrubbers. I think that's key because the last time I checked that does not fit in a Tesla factory so Tesla is clearly thinking about applications outside of Tesla for commercial customers. A Tesla bot engineer said the neural net is running entirely end to end meaning it only consumes video coming from the 2D cameras as well as onboard proprioceptive sensors and it produces joint control sequences directly. Optimists is designed such that a single neural net can perform multiple tasks as we add more diverse data to the training process. Right now it's still a little slow and it's not perfect but they're seeing increasingly high success rates with less frequent misses. They're training optimists to recover from those failure cases and they're seeing spontaneous corrections happen. AKA learning on its own just like Tesla's FSD.

在视频中，你会看到乐观主义者在整理电池单元，同时也在叠洗衣服，还在家庭储物区类型的布置中拿取东西，场景中还有一个炉灶和一些洗碗器。我认为这很关键，因为上次我检查的时候这并不适用于特斯拉工厂，所以特斯拉很明显正在考虑供商业客户使用的应用。一名特斯拉机器人工程师表示，神经网络完全端到端运行，意味着它仅消耗来自二维摄像头和机载本体感应传感器的视频，并直接产生关节控制序列。乐观主义者被设计成一个单一的神经网络可以执行多个任务，随着我们将更多不同的数据添加到训练过程中。目前它还有点慢，不是完美的，但他们看到越来越高的成功率，较少的偏差。他们正在训练乐观主义者从这些失败案例中恢复，并看到出现自发矫正的情况。也就是说它在像特斯拉的全自动驾驶一样自学。

Milan said Tesla has already deployed a couple bots at one of Tesla's factories where they're being tested every day at real workstations and they're continuously improving. Further work is ongoing to make it move faster as well as dealing with more adverse terrains all without sacrificing the human-like nature. They're also focusing on repeatability across the fleet, training the neural net to deal with dynamic calibration and small bot to bot variants. At this point, Elon's prediction of useful work from optimists in the factory by the end of this year is actually looking pretty good. Remember what Tony said, most people will vastly underestimate the rate of progress for this disruption.

米兰说，特斯拉已经在特斯拉工厂的一个地方部署了几台机器人，它们每天都在真实的工作站进行测试，并不断改进。进一步的工作正在进行，以使其运动更快，并处理更加恶劣的地形，而且不会牺牲类似人类的特性。他们还专注于整个机器人群体的可重复性，训练神经网络处理动态校准和小型机器人之间的差异。目前，埃隆对于今年年底乐观地看到工厂中的机器人将会产生有用的作业的预测看起来相当不错。记住托尼说过的话，大多数人会极大低估这种颠覆的进展速度。

Unfortunately there's a lot of drama out there about the timeline for optimists in the Tesla community. For now all I would say is most factory tasks are going to be much simpler and more localized comparing that to FSD seems like a fool's errand. Meaning if you're taking the Tesla FSD timelines and trajectory and applying that to optimists and expecting something very similar, I do not think that is wise. You guys know when it comes to humanoids I'm almost always the first person to temper expectations but the tasks in a factory setting are wildly different than solving FSD.

不幸的是，特斯拉社区中关于乐观主义者时间表的讨论非常多。目前，我只能说大多数工厂任务相对于全自动驾驶系统（FSD）来说要简单得多，更加本地化。将特斯拉FSD的时间表和轨迹应用于乐观主义者，并期望得到非常相似的结果，我认为这是不明智的。你们知道当涉及到人形机器时，我几乎总是第一个要冷静预期的人，但是在工厂环境中的任务与解决FSD大不相同。

Elon said on X the new optimist's hand later this year will have 22 degrees of freedom and the actuators will move almost entirely into the forearm just like how humans work. Jim Fan in senior research at NVIDIA said optimists' current hands are among the best five-fingered dexterous robot hands in the world. The current hands have 11 degrees of freedom and many competitors only have 6 to 7 and Tesla's has the robustness to withstand lots of object interactions without constant maintenance. So when Tesla releases this next gen optimist's hand it'll have around 3 to 4 times the degrees of freedom of most of the humanoid competition.

埃隆说，今年晚些时候推出的新一代乐观主义者机器人手将拥有22个自由度，执行器几乎完全移动到前臂，就像人类手臂一样。英伟达公司高级研究员吉姆·范表示，乐观主义者目前的机器人手是世界上最好的五指灵活机械手之一。当前的机器人手有11个自由度，而许多竞争对手只有6到7个，特斯拉的机器手具有强大的耐用性，可以承受大量物体交互而无需经常维护。因此，当特斯拉推出这款下一代乐观主义者机器手时，它将拥有比大多数人形竞争对手多约3到4倍的自由度。

For practical purposes that just means optimists will have much more capabilities and the ability to do a wider range of tasks. Elon also said if the current trends continue robots will far outnumber humans. He also said yes this video demonstration was fully autonomous meaning there was no human in the loop anywhere. And that right there is what makes this so impressive. Optimists is performing this activity on its own having learned from teleoperations not from actually being teleoperated. Is Tesla using any other types of training whether it's text or language to output? Are they using any simulated data? Is Tesla doing any imitation learning like they do with FSD? Is optimists watching humans perform certain tasks rather than just teleoperation? And how long did it take optimists to actually perform these tasks?

就实际目的而言，这意味着乐观主义者将拥有更多的能力，并具备执行更广泛任务的能力。埃隆还表示，如果当前趋势继续下去，机器人的数量将远远超过人类。他还说，是的，这个视频演示是完全自主的，也就是说在任何地方都没有人参与。这正是使其如此令人印象深刻的原因。乐观主义者正在自行执行这项活动，通过电话操作学习而不是实际的远程操作。特斯拉是否使用其他类型的训练，无论是文本还是语言输出？他们是否使用任何模拟数据？特斯拉是否像他们在全自动驾驶系统上那样进行任何模仿学习？乐观主义者是否在观看人类执行某些任务，而不仅仅是进行远程操作？乐观主义者实际执行这些任务花费了多长时间？

Online it's tough to track down the precise cost of a single purpose robot arm like optimists could replace but there is a range anywhere from $8,000 all the way up to $50,000 and over. However, those on the high end typically have higher payload capacities but obviously even if optimists cost more than a robot arm, optimists will be able to do many different tasks long term. Jim fan from Nvidia pointed out the low latency between Tesla's teleoperations and the optimist controls but he said teleoperation is insufficient to solve humanoid robotics because it fundamentally does not scale. Translation, this teleoperation training method is only going to be for this phase of disruption. Which leads to the question if you only have the budget or the employee headcount to collect training data for 500 or 1000 tasks...

在线上，追踪一个单一用途的机器人手臂的准确成本是很困难的，乐观主义者可能会说可以替代，但实际范围从8000美元到50000美元以上。然而，那些价格高的通常具有更高的负载能力，但显然即使乐观主义的成本比机器人手臂更高，乐观主义者能够长期做很多不同的任务。来自Nvidia的吉姆·范指出了特斯拉的远程操作和乐观主义控制之间的低延迟，但他说远程操作无法解决人形机器人的问题，因为从根本上讲，它无法扩展。换句话说，这种远程操作培训方法只能用于此次颠覆的阶段。这就引出了一个问题，如果你只有预算或员工数足够收集500或1000个任务的训练数据...

it'll be interesting to watch what Tesla picks to maximize that skill transfer and to get toward generalization. All I'm going to say for now is it was less than 2 years ago, September of 2022 when Tesla first unveiled the prototype version of optimists which they were calling bumblebee at the time. So if you extrapolate another 2 years with Tesla no longer being compute constrained with all of the learnings from FSD12 and a refocus on AI, I think most of us here can do that math. We need to talk about something so you know how over the past few years the Tesla community has grown from a close knit community of supporters to a very large diverse community with many doubters and skeptics. Well, the exact same thing has happened with AG1 and I think it needs to be talked about.

看看特斯拉选定什么来最大化这种技能转移，以及朝着泛化方向发展，将会非常有趣。现在我只想说的是不到两年前，也就是2022年9月，特斯拉首次推出了他们当时称之为“大黄蜂”的乐观主义者的原型版本。所以如果你推算另外2年特斯拉不再受计算限制，从FSD12的所有学习中汲取经验，重新聚焦于人工智能，我认为我们这里的大多数人都能理解。我们需要谈论一些事情，让你知道在过去几年里，特斯拉社区已经从一个密切团结的支持者社区发展成为一个非常庞大且多元化的社区，拥有许多怀疑者和怀疑论者。同样的情况也发生在AG1身上，我认为有必要进行讨论。

Since AG1 has grown to be incredibly popular, there are now many people that understand they can also profit from trying to cut it down. And although often times this is actually done by people that are just promoting a competing product, even the people that are not still understand they can generate profit just from the clicks that AG1 and the title can generate. Again, this is exactly like Tesla Q and legacy media realizing that they can profit by attacking Tesla and Elon. Most people will not even address this but it's actually quite important to me. The main argument against AG1 is that the vitamins and minerals...

随着AG1的普及，现在有很多人意识到他们也可以通过试图打压它来获利。尽管许多时候这是因为推销竞争产品的人在做，但即使是不这样做的人也明白点击AG1和标题可以带来利润。这就好比特斯拉Q和传统媒体意识到他们可以通过攻击特斯拉和埃隆获利一样。大多数人甚至不会谈论这点，但对我来说这是非常重要的。对AG1的主要反对意见是其中的维生素和矿物质。。。

are not clinically relevant doses, somehow implying that then the product is useless. Remember though, these recommended daily intake levels are just that, recommendations because everybody's body is different. For example, the RDI for vitamin D is around 600 IU. Now do you really think that getting 599 IU will do nothing but if you get one more international unit then boom, magic happens. I think many of us would agree the answer is no, something is better than nothing. But if you actually look at the ingredient list of AG1, many of the 75 vitamins, minerals and probiotics in every serving are over 100% of the daily value.

并非临床相关剂量，某种程度上暗示该产品无用。但请记住，这些推荐的每日摄入量仅仅是建议，因为每个人的身体都是不同的。例如，维生素D的RDI大约为600 IU。现在你真的认为摄取599 IU时无任何效果，但是多摄取一个IU就会有神奇的效果吗？我想很多人会同意答案是否定的，有总比没有好。但是如果你实际查看AG1的成分列表，每份中的75种维生素、矿物质和益生菌中，很多都超过了每日值的100%。

So look, at the end of the day, AG1 is just something that you would have to try for yourself to see how you respond over the course of a period like 6 months. Just speaking for myself, I feel better knowing that I'm doing what I can to get a baseline of daily nutrition and I'm glad to support a company that I think cares about putting science first and doing the right thing. So if you want to check it out, you can get 5 travel packs and a 1 year supply of vitamin D3K2 linked below. Just remember, no matter how benevolent a company's endeavors like Tesla trying to solve FSD to save lives, there will always be people on the other side of the trade trying to cut it down so do not be deceived. Having Elon succeed in reducing accidents by 50% versus human drivers wouldn't auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risk thereby adversely impacting Geico's revenues and float and perhaps margins too? Insurance always looks easier than it is and it's so much fun because you get the money at the start and then you find out whether you've done something stupid later on. It's a very tempting business when somebody hands you money and you hand them a little piece of paper but really knowing whether you're, I mean if accidents get reduced 50% it's going to be good for society and it's going to be bad for insurance companies to volume but you know good for society is what we're looking for.

看，说到底，AG1只是一种你需要亲自尝试的东西，以便观察你在6个月的时间里如何反应。就我个人而言，我感觉更好，因为我知道我正在尽力获得日常营养，并且我很高兴支持一个我认为将科学放在首位并且做正确事情的公司。所以，如果你想了解一下，你可以在下面的链接中获得5个旅行装和一年的维生素D3K2供应。只是记住，无论一个公司的努力多么善良，比如特斯拉试图解决全自动驾驶以拯救生命，总会有其他人试图打压它，所以不要被欺骗。如果埃隆成功地将事故减少50％与人类驾驶员相比，那么汽车保险费率会不会有所下降，以反映经验风险的降低，从而对盖科保险的收入、保费和利润产生不利影响？保险看起来总是比实际复杂得多，并且非常有趣，因为一开始你就能拿到钱，然后后来才发现自己是否做了蠢事。当有人把钱交给你，你只需给他们一张小纸条时，这是一种非常诱人的生意，但真正了解是否的，我是说，如果事故减少50％，这对社会来说是件好事，对保险公司的数量来说是坏事，但你知道，对社会来说是我们所追求的。

Nothing really new there but people are missing what was said toward the end of this video and it's something we also have to consider. So the point I want to make in terms of Tesla and the fact that they feel that because of their technology the number of accidents do come down and that is certainly proved a bull but I think what needs to be factored in as well is the very cost of each one of these accidents has skyrocketed. So if you multiply the number of accidents times the cost of each accident I'm not sure that total number has come down as much as Tesla would like us to believe. Long term I think that's a moot point but at least in the near term we do have to consider how those scales will balance. Yes FSD will drive down the number of accidents but when it comes to EV accidents as they have more technology enabled cars and fewer repair shops that can work on EVs and fewer EV replacement parts until that industry continues to get built out. Again in the short term there will be at least some offsetting effect but yes absolutely in the long run the insurance industry is in trouble and I'm saying long term in this case is indeed going to be decades.

这并没有什么新鲜的内容，但人们忽视了这个视频最后提到的一点，这也是我们需要考虑的。所以我想要表达的意思是关于特斯拉以及他们认为由于他们的技术导致事故数量减少这一点，这当然证明了其优势，但我认为需要考虑的是每一起事故的成本已经飙升。因此，如果将事故数量乘以每起事故的成本，我不确定总数是否像特斯拉希望我们相信的那样减少。从长远来看，我认为这是一个无关紧要的点，但至少在短期内，我们必须考虑这些平衡将如何达成。是的，全自动驾驶技术将减少事故数量，但在涉及到电动汽车事故时，因为它们拥有更多的科技化汽车和更少的修理店能够修理电动汽车，而且电动车的更换零件也更加稀缺，直到这个行业继续扩建。再次强调，短期内至少会有一些抵消效果，但是长期来看，保险行业将面临困境，我这里说的长期实际上指的是几十年。

Gally said come on Warren sell your apple and buy a Tesla to which Elon said he should take a position in Tesla it's an obvious move. I already shared some of my thoughts about this over on X but some people are misunderstanding what I'm saying I'm not saying there's no buffet effect if he were to hypothetically invest in Tesla. I'm just saying personally I don't care about that because that is simply a sentiment shift and the sentiment changes with the wins. Buffet investing in Tesla changes exactly nothing for Tesla's long term fundamentals the business trajectory Tesla is on or the company's financial performance. Last week we talked about this bill that Republicans have introduced and now they said there's no reason that US taxpayers should be bank rolling luxury EV purchases for wealthy individuals or foreign entities. Personally I think the likelihood of this passing is pretty low but just so you know the bill specifically repeals the $7,500 tax credit, eliminates the credit for used EVs and wipes out the federal investment tax credit for EV charging stations and it closes the leasing loophole that has allowed certain taxpayers and foreign entities to evade restrictions on EV incentives. This feels like a good time as ever to remind everybody that in 2022 fossil fuel subsidies surged to a record $7 trillion.

盖利说，沃伦，卖掉你的苹果，买一辆特斯拉吧。埃隆说他应该在特斯拉中占据一席之地，这是一个显而易见的举动。我已经在X上分享了一些关于这个问题的想法，但有些人误解了我的意思。我并不是说如果他假设性地投资特斯拉就没有巴菲特效应。我只是说我个人不在乎那些，因为那只是一种情绪转变，情绪会随着胜利的变化而改变。巴菲特投资特斯拉对特斯拉的长期基本面、特斯拉的业务轨迹或公司的财务表现完全没有改变。上周我们谈到了共和党提出的法案，现在他们说美国纳税人没有理由为富裕个人或外国实体的豪华电动汽车购买提供资金支持。我个人认为这个法案通过的可能性很低，但你需要知道的是，这项法案明确废除了7500美元的税收抵免，取消了二手电动汽车的抵免，并取消了电动汽车充电站的联邦投资税收抵免，还关闭了使某些纳税人和外国实体逃避电动汽车激励限制的租赁漏洞。现在正是时机提醒大家，2022年化石燃料补贴激增至创纪录的7万亿美元。

If you ask me let's just even the playing field and wipe out all of these subsidies for oil, gas and EVs. But unfortunately for political and lobbying reasons these people are focused on the order of magnitude less in subsidies that so far have been spent on EVs. So far this year the point of sale $7,500 tax credit has amounted to about $700 million being paid out by the treasury compared to $7 trillion in oil and gas subsidies in 2022 alone. Remember though no matter how this goes Elon has said in the past he doesn't really believe in subsidies for EVs and if they were to be removed Tesla will still have the competitive advantage by far. Yes Tesla absolutely has benefited from the EV tax credit but if that goes away it's going to hurt the legacy OEMs even more.

如果你问我，让我们简单地均衡竞争环境，取消所有针对石油、天然气和电动汽车的补贴。但不幸的是，出于政治和游说的原因，这些人关注的是至今已经用于电动汽车的数量级较小的补贴。到目前为止，今年的销售点7500美元的税收抵免已经支付了财政部大约7亿美元，相比之下，2022年仅油气补贴就达到了7万亿美元。请记住，无论结果如何，埃隆过去曾表示他并不真正相信电动汽车的补贴，如果取消，特斯拉仍然会明显具有竞争优势。是的，特斯拉绝对受益于电动汽车税收抵免，但如果这项政策取消，传统汽车制造商将遭受更大打击。

Tesla made a really nice variant change with the Model Y. The rear wheel drive standard range is no longer the new base Model Y now has 320 miles of range up from 260 before. Elon said although it's rear wheel drive the precision of Tesla's electric motors means it still has great traction on snow and ice with all season tires. In the US the base version of the Model Y is now a long range rear wheel drive starting at $45,000. Elon also said the 260 mile range Model Y's built over the past several months actually have more range that can be unlocked. For $1,500 to $2,000 it'll gain 40 to 60 miles of range depending on which battery cells you have. Working through regulatory approvals to enable this. Elon was asked why not just give it for free to which Elon said we have to pay the bills somehow. So if you bought a standard range Model Y in the past few months over the next few months you may have the option for a software upgrade to unlock some extra range. I know that these software unlocks trigger some people so I'm curious how you guys feel about Tesla doing things like this.

特斯拉在Model Y上进行了一个非常好的变种改变。后轮驱动标准续航里程不再是新的基础款Model Y，现在续航里程增加到320英里，从之前的260英里提升。埃隆表示，尽管它是后轮驱动，但特斯拉电动马达的精准性意味着它在雪地和冰上仍然具有极佳的牵引力，配备全季节轮胎。在美国，Model Y的基础版现在是长续航后驱动，起价为45000美元。埃隆还表示，过去几个月生产的260英里续航Model Y实际上有更多的续航里程可以解锁。花费1500至2000美元，就可以获得额外的40至60英里里程，取决于你使用的电池类型。正在通过监管审批来实现这一点。有人问埃隆为什么不免费提供，埃隆表示我们必须想办法支付帐单。所以，如果你在过去几个月购买了标准续航Model Y，未来几个月内你可能可以选择进行软件升级来解锁一些额外的里程。我知道这些软件解锁会引起一些人的不满，所以我很好奇你们对特斯拉做这样的事情有何感觉。

It also means the entry level Model Y now has 10 miles of range more than the long range all wheel drive. Applying to Dana Chandler Elon said pure AI vision auto park coming soon your Tesla will take you to your destination and park automatically unless you ask it otherwise. So when Elon says ask it could he mean with your voice. Then replying to SMR Elon said actually smart summon and banish which is auto park with no one in the car is also coming soon. It would be exciting to see Elon confirm coming soon is with something like version 12.4 but so far no such luck. Elon did say I'm pathologically optimistic with time have been ever since I was a kid. My brother Kimball would tell me an earlier time for the bus schedule from school so that I would actually be there on time. Look you can call me an Elon fanboy or naive if it makes you feel better but I genuinely believe that Elon being overly optimistic with time is far more accurate than saying Elon is a pathological liar. James Stevenson asked about the last mile FSD problem solving saying I don't park at the curb in front of my house like a delivery person I park in my garage in the back of my house so I can charge. Can FSD train on my actions and video after I intervene upon arriving home to which Elon said yeah.

这也意味着入门级的Model Y现在比长续航全轮驱动多了10英里的续航里程。埃隆透露，纯AI视觉自动停车即将推出，你的特斯拉将会把你送到目的地并自动停车，除非你要求它停下来。所以当埃隆说要求时，他是否是指用你的声音。回应SMR时，埃隆表示实际上智能召唤和踢走，也就是无人在车内的自动停车，也将很快推出。看到埃隆确认即将推出的东西会令人兴奋，比如版本12.4，但到目前为止还没有这样的幸运。埃隆确实说过我是一位病态乐观主义者，从小就是这样。我的兄弟金博尔会告诉我学校公交车时刻表比实际提前时间，这样我才能准时到达。你可以称我为埃隆的粉丝或者幼稚，如果这让你感觉更好，但我真心相信，埃隆对时间过于乐观比说埃隆是一位病态说谎者要准确得多。詹姆斯·史蒂文森问及解决最后一英里FSD问题时表示，我不像快递员一样停在我家前面的路边，我停在我家后面的车库里充电。FSD能否根据我的行为和视频训练后，我到家后进行干预，埃隆表示可以。

So perhaps the ability for your car on FSD to pull into your driveway perhaps into your garage could be coming.

因此，也许你的车辆在全自动驾驶的情况下能够自动驶入你的车道，甚至是车库中的可能性可能会出现。

Later this year. Accelerating tech on X pointed out a Walmart Tesla semi out on the roads over the weekend. However you may remember about three weeks ago Timothy Dunor on LinkedIn posted another video of a Tesla semi from Walmart. He said this version of the Tesla semi was pulling a reefer which in case you're not familiar just means a refrigerated trailer to carry perishable goods. And more recently on the cab of the Tesla semi you will see Walmart transportation LLC. And Heinrich Zane added up to nine other companies have received or are about to receive the Tesla semi as they're slowly being produced at the prototype production facility near Giga Nevada. And an important distinction we don't know if these Tesla semis are actual deliveries to these customers or they're just being loaned for testing and verification similar to the Martin Brower press release. As Heinrichs understands it Walmart has to put their decal on the truck to legally use them for deliveries either way though as long as the testing goes well back in 2020 remember Walmart placed in order for 130 Tesla semis.

今年晚些时候，X加速技术指出在周末的路上看到了一辆沃尔玛特斯拉卡车。然而，你可能还记得大约三周前，Timothy Dunor在LinkedIn上发布了另一段沃尔玛特斯拉卡车的视频。他说这辆特斯拉半挂车正在拉着一个带有冷藏设备的拖车，用来运输易腐烂的货物。最近，在特斯拉半挂车的驾驶室上，你会看到沃尔玛运输有限责任公司的标识。Heinrich Zane补充说，另外还有多达九家公司已经收到或即将收到特斯拉卡车，这些车辆正在在附近的Giga Nevada原型生产设施缓慢生产。一个重要的区别是，我们不知道这些特斯拉卡车是否实际交付给这些客户，还是只是被借用进行测试和验证，类似于Martin Brower的新闻稿。根据Heinrich的了解，无论如何，沃尔玛必须在卡车上贴上他们的标识才能合法地用于运输。不过，只要测试顺利，回顾一下2020年，沃尔玛已经下了订单购买130辆特斯拉卡车。

Ordinarily I would not check in on one month but for Germany it's key to keep an eye on what's going on with the EV market. From Roland we have year to date sales for Tesla in Germany for 2024 well behind 2023 and even behind 2022. Thus year to date Tesla is about 36% behind the pace for 2023. What I'm about to say is really just anecdotal from some people that are living in Germany commenting on the state of the EV market. They're saying with these subsidies canceled and a heavy media bias toward ICE vehicles and the lobbies just like we see in the United States. Currently EV demand in Germany is up against some pretty staunch opposition.

通常我不会每个月都关注一次，但对于德国来说，密切关注电动汽车市场的动态很关键。从罗兰的数据来看，截止到2024年，特斯拉在德国的年度销量落后于2023年甚至是2022年。因此，截止到今年，特斯拉的销量比2023年的情况慢了大约36%。我接下来要说的只是来自一些居住在德国的人对电动汽车市场状况的一些随意评论。他们表示，由于这些补贴被取消，以及媒体对传统内燃机车辆的倾向性报道以及类似于美国的游说团体，目前德国的电动汽车需求正面临着相当顽固的反对。

Several autobloggers from Weibo have been reporting that Tom Zu is set to move back to his role as vice president for the Chinese market. Zu had left his position in August last year to move to Texas as senior vice president of automotive overseeing global manufacturing, sales, delivery and service operations. Presumably at least for the short term Elon may now step in to fill some of these roles that Tom Zu will be leaving behind. And I would guess eventually Elon will find somebody else to fill some of these roles. Perhaps Tom Zu is going back to China to focus on FSD and the Robotaxi rollout. And or these next generation lower cost Tesla vehicles.

微博上的几位自动博主一直在报道，汤姆·祖将重返担任中国市场副总裁的职务。祖去年八月离开了他的职位，前往德克萨斯州担任汽车高级副总裁，负责全球制造、销售、交付和服务运营。可以推测，至少在短期内，埃隆可能会接手一些汤姆·祖即将离开的职务。我猜埃隆最终会找到其他人来担任其中的一些职务。也许汤姆·祖回到中国是为了专注于全自动驾驶(FSD)和RoboTaxi的推广，或是下一代更具成本效益的特斯拉汽车。

Gigashang High is still arguably Tesla's most important factory as for quarter one. It produced roughly 50% of all of the cars Tesla produced in the quarter. The word is Tesla is continually sending out emails for more rounds of layoffs. As this time around it includes staff from software, service and engineering departments. Tesla has said it expects to book more than $350 million in costs in the second quarter for the mass layoffs. That should however be backed out by analysts and then we get to the part where Tesla actually saves billions of dollars from these layoffs over the years ahead.

吉加尚高厂在第一季度仍然被认为是特斯拉最重要的工厂。它生产了大约所有特斯拉在该季度生产的汽车的50％。有消息称，特斯拉不断发送电子邮件进行更多轮次的裁员。这一次包括软件、服务和工程部门的员工。特斯拉表示，预计第二季度裁员将导致超过3.5亿美元的成本。然而分析师认为这部分成本应该被剔除，然后我们将看到特斯拉在未来几年通过这些裁员节省了数十亿美元。

You may have already seen Sandy's latest rant but in case you have not this one is not to be missed. Every time I pick up a newspaper or a magazine that talks about Elon Musk it's the same old crap. Look, look around, look around. This is information, this is data, this is analytics, this is money. How much does it cost? How much can be built? What's the characteristics? Has it been tested? All this other crap? And yet, and yet some moron will come on CNN or whatever channel I don't know they're all under the bus as far as I'm concerned and say things that just aren't true. This is what they do. If it bleeds it leads. This is the only rule in the media. How do they sell papers? Fear. When you listen to it, what are you out of your mind? At the end of the day there's nothing that Elon did on this that's anything but good business and good business planning.

也许你已经看过Sandy最新的抱怨，但如果你还没有看过，这个绝对不能错过。每次我看报纸或杂志上关于埃隆·马斯克的报道，都是老一套。看啊，看看周围，这是信息，这是数据，这是分析，这是金钱。花费多少？可以建造多少？它的特点是什么？它被测试过吗？其他那些废话呢？然而，某些白痴会出现在CNN或其他频道，我不知道它们都跌进坑去了，说一些不真实的事情。这就是他们的作为。流血就登一级头条。这是媒体的唯一规则。他们如何销售报纸？恐惧。当你听了这些，难道你不疯了吗？到最后，埃隆在这方面所做的一切只是好的商业和良好的商业规划。

I got all upset because I'm sick and tired of getting. We have to be careful about what we see, what we hear and how we interpret it. Elon Musk is the greatest person on the planet right now. Nobody else out there, nobody has made a rocket ship that will go to Mars. Nobody out there has made electrification a reality. You look at that magnificent piece back there even if you don't like the look of the Cybertruck, look inside. Who else is going to be able to push 48 bolts which we should have done in the 1960s? Who else is going to give you an ethernet ring that eliminates a giant amount of canvas? Who else is going to give you rear wheel steering? Who else is going to give you steer by wire? Nobody. Why? Because they don't have the brains, they don't have the guts and they will never, never take a risk. Never. Never. The boring company. The satellite dishes. All these things come from one guy. What do these guys want to do? Make it bleed. Make it bleed. Everything they possibly can. They're going to throw them under the bus. But here's the deal. In 100 years, no one will remember any of these jerks. And I'm telling you right now, you should stop believing in them. Today would be a good day. Because at the end of the day, Elon Musk is the man of this century for sure. Okay, now I got to go and take a rest.

我感到很沮丧，因为我受够了。我们必须小心看待我们看到的、听到的，以及我们如何解释它。埃隆·马斯克现在是地球上最伟大的人。没有其他人，没人制造了一艘能飞往火星的火箭飞船。没有其他人让电气化成为现实。你看看那个壮丽的东西，即使你不喜欢Cybertruck的外观，看看里面。还有谁能推动48颗螺栓，我们应该在1960年代就做到了？还有谁能给你一个消除大量织物的以太网环？还有谁能给你后轮转向？还有谁能给你电动转向？没有人。为什么？因为他们没有大脑，没有胆量，绝对不会冒风险。绝对不会。无聊的公司。卫星接收器。所有这些都来自一个人。这些家伙想做什么？让它失血。让它失血。他们将尽一切可能把他们置于不利境地。但是这就是交易。100年后，没有人会记得这些混蛋。而我告诉你，你应该停止相信他们。今天是一个好日子。因为最终，埃隆·马斯克肯定就是本世纪的人。好了，现在我得去休息了。

What he just said was actually a big reason why electrified started in the first place. At the time and still now, millions of people are being deceived by the legacy media when it comes to Tesla and really all of Elon's ventures. But at the end of the day, the truth, in this case the best products at the best prices with the most revolutionary technology will ultimately win out despite all of the short-term noise. Waymo's driverless rubber taxis will soon be driving outside of San Francisco's borders. They're going to be fully testing driverless rides in seven new areas in the coming weeks, but they'll only be available to Waymo employees. Waymo will not be testing its vehicles at the San Francisco International Airport as the company requires separate permission from the city of San Francisco for that. Waymo did say expanding our service across the peninsula will take time.

他刚刚说的实际上是电动汽车开始的一个重要原因。那时候和现在，成千上万的人在涉及特斯拉和埃隆的所有企业时都被传统媒体欺骗。但归根结底，事实就是最好的产品以最革命性的技术以最优惠的价格最终会获胜，尽管会有很多短期的喧嚣。Waymo公司的无人驾驶出租车很快将在旧金山的边界外行驶。他们将在未来几周内在七个新区域全面测试无人驾驶乘车，但这些服务只对Waymo员工开放。Waymo将不会在旧金山国际机场测试其车辆，因为该公司需要得到旧金山市另行许可。Waymo表示，拓展我们在半岛的服务需要时间。

The Department of Energy is setting aside $50 million to help suppliers of parts for internal combustion engine vehicles begin making parts for EVs. These are the type of moves that need to continually happen over time for the cost of EV parts and thus EV insurance to continually come down. A Chinese self-driving firm Beijing Momenta may be looking to do an IPO in the United States. It may happen as early as this year and they're looking to raise up to $300 million. I'm pointing this out though because one of its backers includes General Motors, GM obtained a permit in August to test autonomous driving EVs in designated zones in Shanghai using Momenta technology. Do not get this twisted with Tesla using Baidu's mapping technology. Tesla is using its own FSD technology to deploy it in China. In this case, GM is actually using Momenta's autonomous technology, not anything from cruise.

能源部拨款5,000万美元来帮助为内燃机车辆零部件制造商开始制造电动汽车零部件。这些是需要随着时间不断发生的举措，以使电动汽车零部件的成本和因此电动汽车保险的成本持续降低。中国自动驾驶公司北京Momenta可能正在考虑在美国进行首次公开募股。这可能会在今年早些时候发生，他们希望筹集高达3亿美元。我之所以提到这一点是因为它的其中一个支持者包括通用汽车，通用汽车在8月获得了允许在上海指定区域测试使用Momenta技术的无人驾驶电动汽车。不要将这与特斯拉使用百度地图技术混淆。特斯拉正在使用自己的FSD技术在中国部署。在这种情况下，通用汽车实际上正在使用Momenta的自动驾驶技术，而不是任何与cruise相关的东西。

Lucid released its Q1 financials and it came in with a net loss of $680.9 million which was down quarter over quarter from Q4 which was $779.5 million. After over quarter Lucid's cash and cash equivalents did jump about $800 million to $2.1 billion. However, during the quarter they raised a billion dollars from the PIF. And if you take Lucid's net loss divided by the roughly 1,900 vehicles they delivered in the quarter, that's a net loss per vehicle of $346,000. In the slide deck they're still saying the Lucid gravity is scheduled for start of production late 2024. And they're looking at start of production for their high volume mid-size vehicle for late 2026. At this point, without a cap raise, Lucid is saying they have sufficient liquidity into the second quarter of 2025 which is right around the corner.

Lucid发布了其第一季度财务数据，显示净亏损为6.809亿美元，较上一季度的7.795亿美元有所下降。在过去的季度，Lucid的现金及现金等价物增加了约8亿美元至21亿美元。然而，在该季度，他们从PIF筹集了10亿美元。如果将Lucid的净亏损除以他们在该季度交付的约1,900辆车，每辆车的净亏损达到34.6万美元。在幻灭公司的报告中，他们仍表示Lucid nova预计将于2024年底开始生产。他们还计划在2026年底开始大规模生产中型车型。目前，没有融资，Lucid表示他们有足够的流动性支持至2025年第二季度。

Tesla stock closed the day at $184.76 up 1.97% while the NASDAQ was up 1.19%. It was a lower volume day for Tesla trading about 21 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Don't forget check out AG1 linked below if you'd like to find out how it works for you. Tomorrow Tuesday will be the last video from me for this week as I'm going out of town I should be back either Monday or Tuesday of the following week. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.

特斯拉股票收盘价为184.76美元，上涨1.97%，而纳斯达克指数上涨了1.19%。特斯拉的交易量较低，约为过去30天的平均交易量的约2100万股。如果你想了解AG1的工作原理，请查看下方的链接。明天（星期二）将是本周我发布的最后一个视频，因为我要外出旅行，可能会在下周的周一或周二回来。希望你们有一个美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。你可以在下方找到我的X链接，非常感谢我所有的Patreon支持者。