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Tesla Q1 Earnings Report Coverage & Analysis (Q1-24)

发布时间 2024-04-24 05:07:30    来源

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Join Rob Maurer for live coverage of the release of Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report and shareholder letter ➤ Continue following ...

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Hey everybody Rob Maurer here, welcome back to I guess formerly known as Tesla Daily, still Tesla Daily, but not actually Daily, I don't know what we're going to call it. But welcome back everybody, good to be here. We are going to talk about Tesla's earnings report today and later we'll do an earnings call live stream as well. So the link for the earnings call will be down in the description. If you are joining us not live, check the timestamps, I'll put a note on where the actual earnings release comes out. Until then though, I figured we could just spend a few minutes catching up, talking about Tesla. If you guys have questions, I didn't really have an agenda, so let me know what you're interested in hearing about. I do have a couple of things here that we'll talk about before we go into the earnings call and we can take a look at analyst consensus before we actually get the numbers as well. But otherwise I'll keep an eye on chat at the same time. But going to be back, bear with me, obviously it's been a little bit of time since I've done this so I'm sure it's not going to be quite as smooth as it once was, but we'll do our best here and we'll look forward to Tesla earnings today.
大家好,我是Rob Maurer,欢迎回到我猜以前被称为Tesla Daily,仍然是Tesla Daily,但实际上不是每天,我不知道我们要怎么称呼它。但大家欢迎回来,很高兴在这里。今天我们将会谈论特斯拉的财报,稍后我们也会进行财报电话会议的直播。财报电话会议的链接将在描述中提供。如果你在直播的时候没有加入我们,可以查看时间戳,我会标注实际财报发布的时间。在那之前,我觉得我们可以花几分钟来聊一聊特斯拉,看看大家有没有问题。我没有明确的议程,所以让我知道你们感兴趣的话题。在我们进行财报电话会议之前,我这里有一些话题要讨论,我们也可以在真正获得数字之前看一下分析师的共识。但除此之外,我会继续关注聊天内容。很高兴回来,谅解一下,显然自从我上次做这个以后已经过了一段时间,所以可能不会像以前那样顺畅,但我们会尽力而为,期待着今天的特斯拉财报。

As we can see a bit of a recovery at least today. Obviously it's been a tough period here for Tesla, but up 2% right now as we head into close, but the market probably carrying most of the weight there, NASDAQ up 1.6% at the moment. We should be about 15 minutes away, probably about 20 minutes away from the shareholder deck release and then at 430 Central Time, 230 Pacific Time, the earnings call will start after that release. So we'll keep refreshing there. I guess maybe let's hop over to Excel and we can just look at analyst consensus quick.
今天至少可以看到有一些复苏。显然,对特斯拉来说,这段时间很艰难,但目前上涨2%,随着我们接近尾盘,市场可能承担了大部分压力,纳斯达克目前上涨1.6%。我们应该离股东报告发布大约还有15分钟,大约20分钟后中央时间下午4:30,太平洋时间下午2:30,财报电话会议将在之后开始。因此,我们会继续刷新。我猜我们可以转到Excel,快速查看分析师的共识。

So we've got everything set up ready to go here for when we do get the numbers and the favorite part, of course, of every quarter filling in the spreadsheet. But we'll see how those numbers come in. Of course we already got the delivery numbers, so 386,810 deliveries. Tesla for the first time actually pre-released the energy storage deliveries as well with 4,000 megawatt hours. So I believe that they mentioned that that was a record, although it's been relatively close to previous quarters, particularly Q1 and Q3 last year. So nice to see that. I think hopefully we'll start to see that trend up even quite a bit further though, as we see more progress with the megafactories happening sometime soon.
所以我们已经准备好一切,等待着得到数字和最喜欢的部分,当然,每季度填写电子表格。但我们将看看这些数字是如何呈现的。当然,我们已经得到了交付数字,所以是386,810次交付。特斯拉这次还首次提前发布了能源存储交付数据,为4,000兆瓦时。所以我相信他们提到这是一个记录,尽管与前几个季度相比相对接近,尤其是去年的第一季度和第三季度。很高兴看到这一点。我认为希望我们会看到趋势上升得更多,因为我们很快将看到更多的超级工厂的进展。

Analyst consensus, normally I've got my forecast over here and I actually intended to have a forecast, but unfortunately it's been, well, not unfortunately, but it's just been a little bit busier over the last couple of days with the first principles group than the original plan that I had, which would have left some time to do that. But either way, my forecast for the last few quarters have been pretty close to analyst consensus anyway. So I think they've been within a couple of cents and there's some differences between each line and how it all comes together, but relatively not too different. So shouldn't be a huge loss, hopefully, although as I say, with forecasting, it's really helpful to go through and just kind of understand what is driving things. So not having done that this time, that does put me at a bit of a disadvantage when we discuss things, but we'll do our best. We'll sort through it as we get the numbers.
分析师普遍认为,通常我会在这里列出我的预测,实际上我打算做一个预测,但不幸的是,最近几天与第一原则团队一起的工作有点忙碌,比我最初计划的要忙一些,这让我没有时间去做。但不管怎样,我过去几个季度的预测与分析师的共识非常接近。我认为它们在几分钱范围内,每一行之间都有一些差异,但整体上并不完全不同。所以希望不会有太大损失,尽管我要说的是,通过预测,了解事情的驱动因素真的很有帮助。所以这一次没有做到,这在我们讨论事情时让我处于一种劣势,但我们会尽最大努力。我们会在获得数字时进行整理。

So anyway, analyst consensus obviously is in line with what was pre-released for deliveries and energy storage, energy generation, they're expecting a little bit of an increase here sequentially up to 54 megawatts. Global sales at about $21.8 billion. So of course, this would be quite a dip from what we saw in Q4, but we've got a hundred thousand less deliveries. So very much expected that revenues would be declining, particularly in automotive. We'll see in terms of how much regulatory credits the last two quarters have actually been pretty significant. So Tesla's at maybe a bit of a disadvantage there from a regulatory credit perspective as well. And Q1 last year was also quite high for regulatory credit. So we'll see. There may be things this quarter with FSD, maybe Tesla releases some of the deferred FSD revenue. There's quite a bit of that sitting on the balance sheet. So that could boost things in this automotive sales line. It'll be an item to watch for if we do see things come in, perhaps significantly better than expected. That could be a likely candidate for driving that.
无论如何,分析师共识显然与先前发布的交付和能量存储数据一致,他们预计能量发电方面将有一些逐步增长,达到54兆瓦。全球销售额约为218亿美元。当然,这将是Q4所见的情况的大幅下降,但我们的交付量减少了十万。因此,收入下降是非常可预期的,特别是在汽车方面。在过去两个季度,监管信用额度实际上相当显著。因此,特斯拉可能在监管信用的角度上处于劣势。去年Q1的监管信用也相当高。因此我们将拭目以待。也许这个季度会有一些关于FSD的事情,也许特斯拉释放了一些递延的FSD收入。财务报表上有相当多的这方面的存款。这可能会提升汽车销售额。如果我们发现事情进展得比预期好得多,那么这可能是推动这一点的一个可能的候选者。

Energy sales looks like $1.8 billion. I think that'd probably be a little bit higher average selling price forecast than maybe what we saw the last quarter. So we'll see on that, given that we already know the exact number of megawatt hours deployed. Service in others, not to services in other, not too different than what we've seen for the past couple of quarters in terms of the forecast. Total gross profit, obviously with fewer revenues, you're going to have a little bit less gross profit, gross margin. And also expecting that to drop a little bit, which makes sense with lower volume, you're getting less leverage. And of course, average selling prices every quarter, as well as average cost of goods sold. So we'll see a question mark, which we will try to calculate when we do get the numbers. So analysts are expecting about a 6% operating margin, again, a little bit lower than what we have seen. 49 cents, non-gap earnings per share, which would be down both year over year and quarter over quarter, again, obviously driven by deliveries, and 36 cents gap earnings per share, which would put us at $2.24 trailing 12 months. So if we're at $1.45 right now in terms of the share price, that'd be about 64 times earnings. Of course, if you look up the PE, the price earnings ratio somewhere, it is going to show a different number.
销售额看起来是18亿美元。我认为这可能比上一季度看到的平均销售价格预测要稍高一点。因为我们已经知道部署的兆瓦小时具体数字,所以在这方面我们就拭目以待。服务方面不会有太大差异,与过去几个季度的预测大致相同。总毛利,显然随着收入减少,毛利和毛利率也会略微下降。预计随着销量下降,毛利会有所降低,这是合理的,因为销量少了,杠杆效应也会减少。当然,每个季度的平均销售价格以及平均成本价格也会发生变化。我们将在获取数字后尝试计算这个问题。分析师预计约为6%的营运利润率,这比我们过去看到的稍微低一点。预计每股非通用模式收益为49美分,这将是年度和季度均比上一年下降,显然主要受到交付影响,每股通用模式收益为36美分,这将使我们达到过去12个月的2.24美元。如果我们现在的股价为1.45美元,那将约为64倍的盈利。当然,如果你查找市盈率PE,在某些地方会显示一个不同的数字。

And that's because the last quarter tests are released that one time non-cash tax benefit from the deferred tax allowance, which really boosted earnings per share. But it's non-cash. It's really inconsequential and obviously non-repeating. So it's best to factor that out when you're looking at anything with gap earnings for this period. And then free cash flow, they're expecting a little bit negative, and that would be driven by production outpacing deliveries pretty significantly. Whenever you have that, it's going to make free cash flow more challenging because you're building your inventory, which obviously costs cash to do. And eventually sell those vehicles that'll bring cash in in a later period. All right. Hopefully everything sounded OK.
因为上个季度的测试结果显示了一次来自递延税款的非现金税收收益,这确实增加了每股收益。但这是非现金的。这其实并不重要,而且显然不会重复发生。因此,在查看本期间的总体盈余时,最好将其纳入考虑。而自由现金流,他们预计会出现一些负面的情况,这将由生产数量明显超过交付数量驱动。每当出现这种情况,自由现金流就会变得更具挑战性,因为你正在建立库存,显然需要投入现金。最终,你将在以后的时期销售这些车辆,带来现金收入。好的,希望一切听起来都还好。

Looks like we got some chats here. Bruce, thank you. Appreciate that. Let me just look through. Lyle, thank you. Appreciate it. John, thank you. Always good to see you. I saw a chat from you earlier that said you had given up on me, John. Everyone says I should do it at least quarterly, guys. That was the plan. I'm going to keep doing it quarterly around earnings. I think I said that before. So maybe at some point, we can do it more frequently. Like I said, there's a lot going on with other projects right now. So, but eventually maybe the frequency can be a little bit higher.
看起来我们有一些聊天记录。Bruce,谢谢你。非常感谢。让我看看。Lyle,谢谢。感谢。John,谢谢。很高兴见到你。我之前看到你发的一条信息说你已经对我绝望了,John。大家都说我应该至少每季度做一次,伙计们。那是计划中的。我会继续每季度围绕盈利进行。我想我之前说过的。所以也许在某个时候,我们可以更频繁地进行。就像我说的,现在还有很多其他项目正在进行。但最终也许可以增加频率。

John, thank you again. Jack, thank you. Yeah, I understand that the stock price is not where any of us would hope it would be. We can talk maybe a little bit about my thoughts on that here in a second. John, thank you. Luna Clinks, thank you. All right. Let me flip back to Safari. We're still about 10 minutes out for market close. Let's see. Still about 10 minutes out for market close when we get the, well, when the window opens for possible release of the shareholder deck, usually that's within about 10 minutes after market close. So we'll probably have to wait a bit and see on that. But until then, I guess a couple of things I want to mention, I guess we'll look at this quick.
约翰,再次感谢你。杰克,谢谢。是的,我理解股价并不像我们希望的那样。也许我们可以稍微谈一下我对此的想法。约翰,谢谢。鲁娜克林斯,谢谢。好的。让我回到Safari。离市场收盘还有大约10分钟。我们还有大约10分钟时间,收市后可能会有股东介绍的发布窗口打开。所以我们可能需要等一等,看看情况。但在那之前,我想提一些事情,我们来快速看一下。

So the performance model three came out today. Obviously, we've seen a lot of pre-press events happening for this. If you've been following it at all, this is not terribly surprising that this is now being released. What's exciting though is that they did find a way to make this qualify for the federal tax credit, so $7,500 federal tax credit eligibility, which is interesting because the long range all-wheel drive model three is actually not. So if you're looking at the sort of with savings price on the design studio, you're going to notice that the performance model three because of that tax credit is potentially actually cheaper for those that are eligible than the long range all-wheel drive.
所以特斯拉三号性能版今天发布了。显然,我们已经看到了很多关于这个车型的预发布活动。如果你一直在关注的话,现在发布并不太令人惊讶。令人兴奋的是,他们找到了一种方法使这款车有资格获得联邦税收抵免,即7500美元的联邦税收抵免资格,这很有趣,因为长续航全轮驱动的三号型号实际上没有。因此,如果你在设计工作室查看节省价格,会发现由于这项税收抵免,性能版三号型号对于符合条件的人群实际上可能比长续航全轮驱动更便宜。

So it could actually be some pretty decent volume on this vehicle, depending on eligibility ratios for buyers of this product. It would make it pretty compelling to purchase over a more expensive long range all-wheel drive. But of course, with the performance, you're getting a little bit less range, probably due to the larger wheels. Seems like there are some battery differences just because of the eligibility difference here for the tax credit. So we don't know exactly. I don't think we know the kilowatt hour per pack for each of these vehicles. But that could be driving a little bit of the difference, like I said, the wheels.
因此,根据购买人群对该产品的资格比例,这款车的销量可能会相当可观。相比于更昂贵的长续航全时四驱车型,这款车更具吸引力。但当然,由于性能,续航里程会略有下降,可能是因为更大的车轮。似乎由于税收抵扣的资格差异,这里可能存在一些电池差异。因此我们并不清楚确切的情况。我不认为我们知道每款车的每组电池包的千瓦时数。但这可能导致一些差异,就像我说的,车轮。

And then with the powertrain and the aerodynamics and things like that, there are some tweaks here as well. So that's going to affect your range. So all being said, 341-mile estimated range on the long range version versus 296 for the performance is actually a pretty significant difference. But you're getting a lot of advantages, of course, with the performance as well. Interestingly, they've added a custom front fascia here. I believe the back is also a little bit different too between the two versions. You can see there. So anyway, the performance specs here, as I'm sure most of you have seen, we probably don't need to spend too much time on it. But 2.9 seconds, 0 to 60.
然后通过动力系统和空气动力学等方面进行了一些调整。这将影响您的行驶里程。总的来说,长续航版本的预计行驶里程为341英里,而性能版本为296英里,实际上是一个相当显著的差距。当然,性能方面也有很多优势。有趣的是,他们在这里加入了定制的前部外观。我相信两个版本之间的后部也有一些不同。你可以在这里看到。总之,性能规格在这里,我相信大多数人都已经看过,我们可能不需要花太多时间在上面。但是0到60英里加速只需2.9秒。

So that's pretty exciting. I mean, I think Elon posted on next today that this is faster than at least some versions of the Porsche 911. So for this to be the case for a car that's around $50,000 with tax credit, below $45,000 or maybe just right at that, I think it's pretty impressive. And if you think about what the average car costs nowadays in the United States, I think that average selling price is probably above that. So to get a car with this much capability, plus all of the benefits of the highland update, which are also present now, of course, in the performance version, pretty compelling to say the least. So exciting and congrats to Tesla for the release on that. Of course, we've been waiting a little bit for that since the highland update. So exciting to see that.
这真是令人兴奋。我的意思是,我觉得埃隆今天在社交媒体上发布说,这款车比保时捷911的某些版本要快。所以说,对于一辆大约50,000美元(含税)的车来说,其实售价只需不到45,000美元,甚至可能正好在这个价位,我觉得这非常令人印象深刻。如果你考虑一下现在在美国的普通汽车的价格,我想平均售价可能已经超过了这个价位。所以要拥有一款具有如此高性能的车,再加上现在所提供的全新功能,当然现在的性能版本中也有这些新功能,这无疑很具吸引力。所以,对特斯拉发布这款车感到非常兴奋和祝贺。当然,自从全新功能发布以来,我们已经等了一段时间,所以看到这一点真是让人兴奋。

Another hot topic, of course, is the proxy vote that will be upcoming. So I would encourage everyone to vote your shares. These votes are very important, especially in this case, as we know, the Elon Musk compensation plan from 2018 will be voted on again. Of course, Delaware, for the time being, has ruled against this. So it has put Elon's compensation package in jeopardy. Hopefully everyone knows my opinion on this. We've been present. Tesla daily existed prior to that compensation plan, even being proposed. If you go back and listen to the episodes around that time, obviously my feedback was extremely favorable towards that. I never felt like I was misled at any point in time.
另一个热门话题当然是即将进行的代理投票。所以我鼓励大家投票。这些投票非常重要,特别是在这种情况下,因为我们知道,埃隆·马斯克2018年的补偿计划将再次接受投票。当然,特拉华州目前已裁定反对这一计划。这让埃隆的补偿计划岌岌可危。希望每个人都知道我的观点。我们一直在这里。特斯拉每日新闻在这项补偿计划提出之前就存在。如果你回顾那个时候的节目,显然我对此的反馈是非常有利的。我从未觉得自己在任何时候被误导。

I mean, it seems pretty clear. You're going to 10x the value of the company. And if you do that, you get a big chunk of equity. And if you don't, then you get nothing. That seems extremely fair, extremely shareholder friendly to me. So I don't see how anyone could have an issue with that, even in hindsight, no matter what sort of alleged conflicts of interest existed. That's, I think, going to always be a good deal for shareholders. So I don't really understand how anyone could be critical of it, honestly.
我的意思是,情况似乎很清楚。你们要让公司的价值增长10倍。如果成功了,你们将获得大量的股权。但如果失败了,你们将什么都得不到。对我来说,这看起来非常公平,非常有利于股东。所以我不明白如何有人会对此提出任何异议,即使事后看来有任何潜在的利益冲突。我认为,这对股东总是一个不错的交易。老实说,我真的不明白有人怎么能批评这个。

I mean, even at the time, people called it ridiculous because people assume that there was no chance that Tesla would become a $450 billion market cap company, which would be by a significant amount more than any other automaker at the time. I don't know. People are just forgetting the loftiness of these targets because they were achieved or what's going on. But it's disappointing that it's come to this. I certainly will be voting, yes, for Elon to get that compensation plan. If anyone has an argument against it, most of the arguments I've seen have to do with recent things that should not come into, in my opinion, should not be a factor for a compensation plan that was voted on in 2018 that was then subsequently achieved. Performance sense then shouldn't really matter. And that's actually also a part of the plan because this is an equity reward. So if the value of the equity declined significantly, so does the value of the reward, especially because part of the structure of this equity reward is that Elon would have to hold the shares for a five year period after they are either vested or exercised. I'd have to look back at what specifically the language is. But even once earned, you still have to hold it for five years. So if the value of the equity tanks, then so does the value of the award. So yeah, we went through all this stuff all the time or through that period of time. It's I think very much in shareholders favor at the time and obviously was tremendously rewarding to shareholders and also, of course, to Elon as well. But those are my thoughts on it. So if anyone has an actual criticism of that that doesn't relate to anything that has happened after that, please let me know and maybe I can try to respond to that. But so I don't think voting is actually open yet. I think that's going to open up maybe sometime in the next week. Just keep an eye out. People will have instructions on how to make sure that you're voting for that.
我是说,即使在当时,人们也称之为荒谬,因为人们认为特斯拉不可能成为市值4500亿美元的公司,这将远远超过当时任何其他汽车制造商。我不知道。人们似乎忘记了这些目标的高度,因为它们已经实现了,或者出了什么问题。但令人失望的是事情变成了这样。我肯定会投赞成票,支持埃隆获得那份薪酬计划。如果有人反对,大部分我看到的反对意见涉及最近发生的事情,我认为这些不应该成为2018年投票通过的薪酬计划的考量因素,之后便实现了。那时的绩效现象实际上并不重要。实际上,这也是计划的一部分,因为这是一种股权奖励。如果股权价值大幅下跌,奖励价值也会相应下降,尤其因为这种股权奖励结构的一部分是埃隆在股权获得或行使后必须持有这些股份五年。具体的语言我得回头再看看。但即使获得了奖励,你仍然需要持有五年。因此,如果股权价值暴跌,奖励价值也会下降。所以,我们在那段时间经历了所有这些事情。我认为当时这非常有利于股东,显然对股东非常有回报,当然也对埃隆本人有益。但这是我的想法。如果有人对此提出实际的批评,而不是与之后发生的任何事情相关的,请告诉我,也许我可以回应。我认为投票实际上还没有开始。我认为可能会在未来一周内开始。请留意。人们会得到如何确保为此投票的指示。

All right, let's see. I'm just reading through some of the chats here. We've got about five minutes until market close. James, thank you. Appreciate that. I'm kind of just looking through here to see if I see any valid or invalid criticisms of the compensation plan. I would guess that a lot of us here on the same page, but I've actually been kind of surprised at some of what I've seen that has been against it. Nikolai, how do you assess risk around the upcoming shareholder vote, specifically approving Elon's 2018 comp package and the potential for this not passing another shareholder vote? It's a good question. So I personally think it will pass. I mean, we saw the support that Elon had last year at the shareholder meeting. And it's not like that was a great period of time for Tesla at that point either. I guess kind of a run up into the shareholder meeting last year, which I think was probably around June. But that was certainly following a very difficult period. Some of the voting may have happened during that period of time for Tesla to you, where things weren't all that great. I'm sure you guys remember the advertising push and conversation around the shareholder meeting last year. But nevertheless, Elon had strong support from shareholders. I would expect and hope that that is still the case again today with this new proxy vote. So I think it'll pass, but it's important to make sure that you're voting. I think if there were a no vote, certainly that would put, you know, a lot more doubt on Elon's position with Tesla going forward than there would be with a yes vote. So I'm certainly one that wants Elon to remain at Tesla for quite some time. So I think it's tricky because some market participants might actually, you know, be relieved or be happy if if Elon were to leave Tesla. And I'm sure there would be people that would push for that. Again, I would not be in that camp at all.
好的,让我看看。我正在阅读一些聊天记录。市场关闭还有大约五分钟。詹姆斯,谢谢你。我很感激。我正在浏览这里,看看是否有任何对补偿计划的有效或无效批评。我猜很多人都持相同的观点,但我实际上有些惊讶于一些反对意见。尼古来,你如何评估即将举行的股东投票中的风险,特别是批准埃隆的2018年补偿方案,以及这次投票可能不会通过的风险?这是一个很好的问题。我个人认为会通过。我是说,我们看到了埃隆去年股东大会上获得的支持。而且当时对特斯拉来说也并不是一个好时期。我想去年大约六月左右股东大会之前的市场上升可能发生在一个非常困难的时期。一些投票可能发生在那个时期,对于特斯拉来说,情况并不是很好。我相信你们还记得去年股东大会前的广告推动和谈论。但尽管如此,埃隆得到了股东的强有力支持。我期望并希望在今天的这个新的代理表决中仍然是这样。所以我认为会通过,但重要的是确保你参与投票。我认为如果有一个反对票,肯定会对埃隆未来在特斯拉的地位产生更多的怀疑,而不像有一个赞成票那样。我肯定希望埃隆能在特斯拉工作很长时间。所以我认为这是棘手的,因为一些市场参与者实际上可能会感到欣慰或高兴,如果埃隆离开特斯拉。我相信会有人推动这一点。但是我绝对不会属于那一方。

I think it would be very detrimental to Tesla's future. So it's not something I want to see. The impact of the stock, I do think it would probably be pretty negative. But like I said, maybe it's hard to assess that because maybe some people have a different opinion that are also, you know, driving the share price. So tough to say for sure. Let's see. Elon stated he wants influence of the development of AI, what's stopping him from migrating autonomy development to XAI. He then controls AI and Tesla just licenses software from XAI. Yeah, I think we've talked a little bit about XAI and kind of the role that the two companies would play. I think there is going to be, you know, some degree of collaboration between them. Obviously, Tesla's got the hardware and the hardware that's collecting data. So maybe they licensed that out to XAI. I'm not really sure exactly how any plans to structure things there would be. But as we saw Elon post on X a couple of days ago, it does seem like there's intent to integrate Groc into Tesla vehicles. So there's clearly going to be some collaborating happening here at some point. But I don't think Elon is just going to move over, you know, all of Tesla's AI efforts to XAI, like maybe as the question that's being asked there. I wouldn't be surprised to obviously close partnership, but I think they're still going to both play their own roles for sure.
我认为这对特斯拉的未来将会非常不利。所以这不是我希望看到的事情。股价的影响,我认为可能会非常负面。但就像我说的,也许很难评估,因为可能还有一些人持有不同的观点,也在影响股价。很难下定论。让我们看看。埃隆表示他想影响人工智能的发展,那么有什么阻止他将自动驾驶的发展转移到XAI呢。然后他控制人工智能,特斯拉只是从XAI许可软件。是的,我认为我们已经谈到过XAI以及两家公司扮演的角色。我认为他们之间会有一定程度的合作。显然,特斯拉拥有硬件和收集数据的硬件。也许他们将这部分许可给XAI。我不太确定具体的计划会如何结构化。但正如我们几天前看到埃隆发帖关于X的,似乎有意将Groc整合到特斯拉车辆中。所以显然在某个时间点会有一些合作发生。但我不认为埃隆会完全转移所有特斯拉的人工智能努力到XAI,就像可能在那里被问到的问题。我不会对紧密的合作感到惊讶,但我认为他们还是会各自扮演自己的角色。

All right, we're getting close to market close. Oh, here's a good one. I meant to talk about this. So yeah, there's been a lot about like the model two and Robo taxi and what's going on. And we've now got the Robo taxi on Vale date for August 8th. So pretty excited about that. I think there's probably some degree of truth in that Reuters report that I don't know if they said that the next generation low cost vehicles post pwned in favor of the Robo taxi or if it was canceled, I would have to go back and read it. Elon of course said that Reuters is flying again. And I think there are probably parts of the report that are, you know, maybe close to accurate parts of the report that are not for me. What was frustrating is that they seem to intertwine EV sales in China into this article for some reason, which if you read through it, none of the information that they claim to have gotten from anyone made those connections. It was literally just Reuters putting all of that in there. So super misleading reporting. Either way, I think Tesla is very happy with the progress on version 12 of FSD. I'm personally very happy it's been a huge step forward in Chicago. And if we can see that sort of pace of progress continue, I think there's a very good reasons to be optimistic on on the progress of FSD with with of course a big transition with version 12 over to N10 neural networks. Plus now Tesla not being as compute constrained. Hopefully we're now established with an architecture that can allow faster progress, not that we haven't seen progress, but if this can allow faster progress, I think that'll start to open a lot of eyes, which I think a lot of eyes are already starting to be open with with version 12.
好的,我们接近市场关闭时间了。哦,这里有一条重要的新闻。我本来是想谈谈这个的。所以,关于Model 2和Robo taxi发生了很多事情。现在我们已经确定了Robo taxi的上市日期是8月8日,我对此感到非常兴奋。我认为路透社的报道中可能有一定程度的真实性,我不确定他们是否说下一代低成本车型被Robo taxi取代或取消了,我需要再回去读一下。埃隆当然表示路透社又在“胡扯”。我认为这篇报道中可能有些部分是准确的,有些则不准确。令人沮丧的是他们在某种程度上将中国的电动车销售与这篇文章联系在一起,但如果你仔细阅读后会发现,他们声称得到的所有信息并没有这些联系。这显然是路透社在撒谎。无论如何,我认为特斯拉对FSD 12版本的进展非常满意。我个人非常高兴,这是芝加哥方面的一个巨大进步。如果我们能够保持这种进展速度,我认为有很多理由对FSD的进展感到乐观,当然,随着12版本过渡至N10神经网络,再加上特斯拉现在不再受到计算约束。希望我们现在已经建立了一个能够促进更快进展的架构,虽然我们已经看到了进展,但如果这能带来更快的进展,我认为这将开始引起很多人的关注,我认为很多人已经对12版本开始感到兴奋了。

So anyway, going back to the question on, you know, model two, Robo taxi, et cetera. I think it's likely that Tesla has prioritized the Robo taxi. And I think that's probably a result of the success and, you know, the trend that they're seeing with autonomous capabilities with version 12.
所以,回到你问的问题,关于模型二,Robo出租车等等。我认为特斯拉很可能已经将Robo出租车放在了优先位置。我认为这可能是他们在版本12中自动驾驶能力取得成功和看到的趋势的结果。

And if you think about the degree of these projects, like I've seen a lot of people say, like, why not just do them both at the same time? And if they were very similar vehicles, sure do them both at the same time. But I also think we should think about like what that sort of a request is actually asking because if you think about both of these products in isolation, let's talk about this quote unquote model two, whoever, you know, whatever the name ends up being.
如果你考虑这些项目的规模,就像我见过很多人说的那样,为什么不同时进行两个项目呢?如果它们是非常相似的车辆,那么当然可以同时进行。但我也认为我们应该思考一下这种请求实际上是在要求什么,因为如果你把这两个产品都单独来看,让我们来谈谈这个所谓的第二款车型,不管它最终被命名为什么。

Everyone expects this to be probably the most consequential vehicle product, you know, maybe ever. You could argue that that's already been, you know, the model Y, the model three, you could make arguments for the model S just in terms of where the trend has been. But this next generation vehicle, it would do more volume than all of them.
大家都预期这款可能是有史以来最具影响力的汽车产品。也许你会认为,Model Y、Model 3或者Model S已经有很大的影响力,从趋势来看可以这样说。但这款下一代车型将比它们所有的产量加起来还要更多。

And it would, you know, potentially certainly it would be among the handful of most important products in automotive history. So think about what that means. And then think about saying you should do that. You should make the most consequential one of the most consequential products in automotive history.
这样做的话,无疑会成为汽车史上最重要的几款产品之一。想想这意味着什么。再想想说你应该这样做。你应该打造汽车史上最具影响力的产品之一。

But also you should do something else, which is has the same degree of consequence at the exact same time. And if you phrase it like that, hopefully it's clear how kind of ridiculous that type of request would be. Sorry, it's getting really bright in here, but to ask a company to do both of those things at the same time, you know, it's obviously pretty ridiculous.
但是你也应该做其他事情,与此同时具有同等重要性。如果你这样表达,希望你能清楚地理解这类要求是多么荒谬。抱歉,这里的光线真的太刺眼了,但是让一个公司同时做这两件事情,你知道,显然非常荒谬。

So for one of them to take priority over the other based on what Tesla is seeing with FSD and their confidence there, you know, we know how the track record has been on that. So I'm not saying one way or the other if it's the right decision. But if you believe that that's coming sometime in the next few years, even if it is like three years away, this is a decade long sort of platform, right?
所以对于其中一个基于特斯拉在全自动驾驶系统(FSD)和他们的信心所看到的情况而优先考虑,你知道,我们知道这方面的记录如何。所以我不是在说这是正确的决定还是错误的决定。但是如果你相信这将在接下来的几年内实现,即使是三年以后,这是一个为期十年的平台,对吧?

So if you miss it by a year or two, it still can end up being the right choice to focus on that Robotaxi over the other one, you know, in that case. So I get that it's more risky certainly, but I think there's, you know, valid reasons to kind of pursue that strategy. So we may be getting close here to a learning is released. Let me just make sure I'm not just talking.
所以如果你错过了一两年,仍然可能是正确的选择专注于那辆Robotaxi而不是另一辆,你知道,在那种情况下。我明白这样做肯定更冒险,但我认为有一些有效的理由来追求这种策略。现在我们可能已经接近一个新的学习成果发布。让我确认一下我没有在空谈。

As we actually get the report. And usually the stock price kind of gives us our first tent that actually being released. So I don't know if I've expressed all my thoughts on Robotaxi model two. I'll keep thinking about that, but it is a good question. And obviously has been probably having a bit of influence on the stock as of late.
当我们实际获得报告时,通常股价会给出我们首次释放的端倪。所以我不确定我是否已经表达了我对Robotaxi模型二的所有想法。我会继续思考这个问题,但这是一个很好的问题。显然,最近股价可能受到了一些影响。

All right, just give me one second here. I'm going to try to tone this brightness down a little bit. I probably just have to keep adjusting that based on the sun. All right. Let's see. Oh, up 4% seems like something maybe is out. All right, let's try this little trick here again, because I'm not seeing it yet. Of course, my computer doesn't even want to open that.
好的,给我一秒钟。我要尝试把这个亮度调低一点。可能得根据阳光来不断调整。好的。让我看看。哦,增加4%似乎有点不对劲。好的,让我们再试一次这个小技巧,因为我还没看到。当然,我的电脑甚至不想打开那个。

All right, it is. So we not hacked on the URL again, but we've got it up here. So we'll just take a quick peek at earnings per share. Looks like it's a bit below street consensus. 45 cents per share. 49 was the analyst consensus. So it's interesting that the algorithms are right now pushing the stock up 5%. Not sure what's driving that, but definitely nice to see.
好的,没错。所以我们又没有在 URL 上被黑,但我们找到了。所以我们来快速看一下每股收益。看起来低于市场预期。每股 45 美分。分析师一致预期为 49 美分。所以有趣的是算法目前正在推动股价上涨 5%。不确定是什么在推动,但看到这点确实令人高兴。

All right, well, let's read through and figure out what's going on. Try not to cover things up here. All right, so highlights $1.2 billion gap operating income in Q1. I think that's about 100 million less than analyst consensus, probably similar for gap net income there and non-gap as well. We'll check those numbers later. Operating cash flow of 200 million in Q1, free cash flow negative two and a half billion in Q1. AI infrastructure capex was $1 billion in Q1. 2.2 billion dollar decrease in cash and investments to 26.9 billion. Operations increased AI training compute by more than 130% in Q1. Record energy storage like we know and produced over 1000 cyber trucks in a single week in April. Also a topic that we hadn't talked about yet, but of course we saw from the recall that there had been about 3900 cyber trucks produced through mid-April or actually delivered through mid-April, which I looked back at my forecast from Q3, Q4. That was actually pretty well ahead of what I would have expected. I'm pretty happy with how the cyber truck ramp has gone thus far. Of course, there's that little recall, which is getting way too much attention, but such is the case with such a dynamic vehicle that is so unusual. Plus Tesla, plus Elon, etc.
好的,那么让我们仔细阅读并弄清楚发生了什么。尽量不要掩盖事实。好的,所以关键点是第一季度运营收入有12亿美元的差距。我认为这比分析师的共识少了大约1亿美元,包括缺口净收入以及非缺口。我们稍后会核对这些数字。第一季度的经营现金流为2亿美元,第一季度的自由现金流为负25亿美元。第一季度的人工智能基础设施资本支出为10亿美元。现金和投资减少了22亿美元,降至269亿美元。在第一季度,运营中的人工智能训练计算增长了超过130%。像我们所知,能源储存创纪录,四月份单周内生产了超过1000辆狂热卡车。还有一个我们还没有讨论的话题,但当然我们从召回中看到到,到四月中旬已交付了大约3900辆狂热卡车,我回顾了我的Q3、Q4的预测。实际情况比我预期的要好。到目前为止,我对狂热卡车的增长速度非常满意。当然,有一个小的召回,吸引了太多的关注,但这是一种如此不寻常的动态车辆的情况。加上特斯拉、埃隆等因素。

All right, summary. We experienced numerous challenges in Q1 from the Red Sea conflict and the arson attack at Giga Berlin to the gradual ramp of the updated Model 3 in Fremont, excluding cyber truck and unscheduled downtime. Our cost of goods sold per unit declined, sequentially driven primarily by lower raw material costs. Global EV sales continue to be under pressure as many car makers prioritize hybrids over EVs, while positive for our regulatory credit business. We prefer the industry continue pushing EV adoption, which is in line with our mission. To support our growth, we've been increasing awareness and expanding vehicle financing programs, including attractive leasing terms for our customers. It's interesting that leasing is so low, it's such a low percent, it's like 2% of Tesla's deliveries. Maybe because of the buyouts, we can talk more about that.
好的,总结一下。在第一季度,我们经历了许多挑战,从红海冲突和吉加柏林的纵火袭击,到弗里蒙特更新版Model 3的逐步增产,不包括电动卡车和非计划停机时间。我们每单位销售成本下降,主要受到原材料成本的影响。全球电动汽车销量仍受到压力,许多汽车制造商更倾向于混合动力汽车而不是电动汽车,虽然这对我们的监管信贷业务是有利的。我们希望整个行业继续推动电动汽车的普及,这与我们的使命相符。为了支持我们的增长,我们一直在增加宣传力度并扩大车辆融资计划,为客户提供有吸引力的租赁条款。有趣的是,租赁比例很低,只有很小的百分比,大约是特斯拉交付量的2%。也许是因为赎回的原因,我们可以更多地谈谈这个问题。

Continuing on, Tesla says, while many are pulling back on their investments, we are investing in future growth, including our infrastructure, production capacity, our supercharger and service networks, and new products infrastructure, with $2.8 billion of capital expenditures in Q1. It's a lot. We recently undertook a cost cutting exercise to increase operational efficiency. We also remain committed to company-wide cost reduction, including reducing cost of goods sold per vehicle. Ultimately, we are focused on profitable growth, including by leveraging existing factories and production lines to introduce new and more affordable products. The future is not only electric, but also autonomous. We believe scaled autonomy is only possible with data from millions of vehicles and an immense AI training cluster. We have and continue to expand both. To make FST supervised more accessible, we reduced the price of subscription to $99 a month and purchased to $8,000 in the US. Here we have our financial recap. Again, I think revenue, this is, let me just check real quick, but this is about $500 million short of consensus on the total revenue line. We talked about some of the lower lines, operating margin of 5.5%, analyst consensus was 6%. Let's just see here. Stock up 5. It's interesting. I'm pleased to see it. It's a little bit surprising for sure, given that this is a little bit below consensus in terms of the results, but let's keep going through and see what we can see. All right, total revenue decline, 9% year over year, revenue impacted by the following items, so reduced ASP, excluding foreign exchange impact, unfavorable mix of vehicles, also decline in vehicle deliveries, partially due to Model 3 and Kia Berlin, like we had mentioned, negative foreign exchange impact of $200 million, offset a little bit by growth in other parts of the business and higher FST revenue recognition year over year due to release of auto park feature in North America. So we'll have to see if that exact number is disclosed anywhere. If not, we should get that in the 10Q.
特斯拉继续表示,虽然许多公司正在减少投资,但我们正在投资未来的增长,包括基础设施、生产能力、超级充电站和服务网络,以及新产品基础设施,在第一季度投入了28亿美元的资本支出。这是一大笔资金。我们最近进行了成本削减行动以提高运营效率。我们也致力于公司范围的成本削减,包括降低每辆车的销售成本。最终,我们专注于盈利增长,通过利用现有的工厂和生产线推出新的更实惠的产品。未来不仅是电动的,也是自动化的。我们认为规模化自动化只有通过来自数百万辆车的数据和巨大的人工智能训练集群才可能实现。我们已经在这方面取得了进展,并将继续扩大规模。为了使FST受监管更加易于使用,我们将订阅价格降低到每月99美元,并在美国购买价格为8000美元。下面是我们的财务总结。再次,我认为收入,这是,让我快速查证一下,但总收入线上可能比共识少大约5亿美元。我们谈到了一些较低的指标,运营利润率为5.5%,分析师共识为6%。让我们看看这里。股价上涨5%。这很有趣。我很高兴看到这一点。毫无疑问有点令人惊讶,鉴于这一结果在总体共识之下,但让我们继续看看能发现什么。总收入同比下降9%,收入受以下因素影响,包括ASO的下降,不良车型组合,以及部分受Model 3和Kia Berlin的车辆交付下降影响,以及200万美元的负面外汇影响,部分抵消其他业务领域的增长和FST收入由于北美版自动停车功能的发布而同比提高。所以我们得看看是否这个确切数字在任何地方被披露。如果没有,我们应该在10Q报告中得到这个数据。

For profitability, operating income decreased to $1.2 billion, 5.5% operating margin. Year over year operating income was primarily impacted by the following items. ASP and mix increased operating expenses, partly driven by AI, cell advancements, and other R&D projects, cost of the cyber truck production ramp, decline in vehicle deliveries, like we had talked about, offset a little bit by lower cost per vehicle, growth profit growth and energy storage and generation, including IRA credit benefit, higher FST revenue recognition year over year. Then quarter in cash we had talked about sequential decline of $2.2 billion. So like we had talked about prior to this starting, some of that driven by inventory, with inventory increasing $2.7 billion and a lot of AI infrastructure capital expenditures.
出于盈利考虑,营业收入下降至12亿美元,营业利润率为5.5%。年度营业收入主要受到以下因素的影响。ASP和产品组合提高了营业支出,部分受到人工智能、细胞技术进展和其他研发项目的推动,以及电动卡车生产规模成本、车辆交付量下降的影响,正如我们之前所讨论的那样,一定程度上被车辆单位成本降低、增长利润和能源存储和发电(包括IRA信贷收益)、营收年度增长高了。然后,在现金方面,我们之前讨论过续季度下降了22亿美元。就像我们之前所说的那样,部分原因是因为库存增加了27亿美元,以及许多人工智能基础设施资本支出。

Production and deliveries we already got, as we can see, a very low percentage of those deliveries are subject to lease accounting, vehicle inventory, which we could have calculated previously up to 28 days of supply, a large number for Tesla, but still quite low relative to other automakers in general. So, we already knew, and then of course continued growth in infrastructure. Alright, vehicle capacity, we'll compare this chart real quickly versus Q4. I always like to see if there's any differences there. Alright, so this is Q4. I'm just gonna flip back and forth between the two. So it looks like they're all the same, except we got a couple of greater than signs added. So we got a greater than sign added on Model 3 and Model Y California capacity. That was 550k before, now greater than 550k. And then I believe the other one was for Berlin. Q4 said 375k Model Y. Now they're saying greater than 375k. And all the rest are the same. Let's look at these other projects. Tesla, semi and pilot production and development and development, pilot production and development and development. So nothing new there, just those couple of greater than signs.
生产和交付已经得到了,我们可以看到,只有很少一部分交付物被列入租赁会计,包括车辆库存,我们之前可以预计供应量高达28天,对于特斯拉来说这个数字很大,但相对于其他汽车制造商来说仍然相当低。所以,我们已经知道了,当然还有基础设施的持续增长。好的,车辆产能,我们将快速比较这张图与第四季度的情况。我总是喜欢看看有没有什么不同。所以这是第四季度。我会快速地来回比较这两者。看起来除了有几个大于号被添加外,其他都一样。所以在Model 3和Model Y加利福尼亚的产能上加了一个大于号。之前是550k,现在是大于550k。然后我相信另一个是柏林。第四季度说是375k Model Y。现在他们说是大于375k。其他都是一样的。让我们看看这些其他项目。特斯拉,半挂车和试制生产和开发,开发,试制生产和开发,开发。没有什么新鲜事,只是那几个大于号。

So let me close Q4, make sure we're in the right notes still, which we are. Alright, vehicle capacity. Sequential decline in volumes partially caused by what we've talked about before. US Model 3 production in Fremont down sequentially has changed the production line to the updated model sequentially model Y production at Gigafactory Texas increased to an all time high. While Cog's per unit improved to an all time low, the Cybertruck ramp continued successfully at Gigafactory Texas with sequential cost improvement in Q1 produced over 1000 Cybertrucks in a single week in April. Production at Gigafactory high was down sequentially due to seasonality and planned shutdowns around Chinese New Year in Q1, typically demand improves throughout the year. As we enter new markets, such as Chile, many of them will be supplied from Gigafactory high. Interesting.
因此,让我来总结第四季度,确保我们仍然在正确的轨道上,事实证明我们是的。好了,车辆产能。成批量的下降部分是由我们之前谈到的原因引起的。美国弗里蒙特的Model 3产量顺序下降,已经顺序更改为更新的Y型模型。德克萨斯Gigafactory的Y型车产量达到历史新高。单位成本改善到历史新低,Cybertruck生产持续成功在Gigafactory,德克萨斯成功实现了顺序成本改善Q1在四月份,一周内生产超过1000辆Cybertrucks。Gigafactory产量在Q1由于季节性和春节计划停产的影响而顺序下降,通常需求在整年内有所改善。当我们进入新的市场,例如智利,其中许多将从Gigafactory供货。很有趣。

Model Y production in Berlin down sequentially due to impacts from the Red Sea conflict and arson attack despite auto capacity charges and other costs from production disruptions, Cog's per unit continued to decline sequentially. So that's a good sign if production capacity can be fully utilized in the future. It's nice to see that the costs are still declining despite some of those production disruptions. Here we can see market share. So obviously disappointing it to see a little bit of a drop here for Tesla market share looks like kind of across all regions, but no surprise when you have such a sequential decline in deliveries that would end up being the case. Hopefully we see this return in future quarters, but obviously this is a big part, you know, among other things of the stock performance that we've seen for the last, you know, a little while here. Fix that brightness again.
由于红海冲突和纵火袭击的影响,柏林的Model Y生产量逐步下降,尽管遭遇了汽车产能费用和其他生产中断造成的成本,但每单位利润仍在逐步下降。如果未来能够充分利用生产能力,这是一个好迹象。尽管出现了一些生产中断,但很高兴看到成本仍在下降。在这里我们可以看到市场份额。显然,看到特斯拉在各个地区的市场份额略微下降有些令人失望,但当交付量逐步下降时,这也并不足为奇。希望在未来季度看到这种情况得以改善,但显然这是股票表现的重要组成部分,尽管近期有所下滑。调整一下屏幕亮度。

All right, technology. So this is probably perhaps the most important slide at the moment. Um, AI software and hardware. We've been investing in the hardware and software ecosystems necessary to achieve vehicle autonomy and a ride hailing service. We believe a scalable and profitable autonomy business can be realized through a vision only architecture with N10 neural networks trained on billions of miles of real world data. Since the launch of S FSD supervised V12 earlier this year, it has become clear that this architecture long pursued by Tesla is the right solution for scalable autonomy to further improve our N10 training capacity or capability. We will continue to increase our core AI infrastructure capacity in the coming months. In Q1, we completed the transition to hardware 4.0, our latest in vehicle computer with increased inference processing power and improved cameras. Take a look at these graphs in a second. Sun is out of control. We rolled out FSD supervised with a 30 day free trial to eligible cars in the U.S. and Canada. FSD supervised can change lanes. Yeah, we know what it can do. We released auto park to existing FSD enhanced autopilot customers currently working on ride hailing functionality that will be available in the future. We believe the Tesla software experience is best in class across all our products and plan to seamlessly layer ride hailing into the Tesla app. So Tesla Network, a concept that has been talked about for a long time, Tesla now starting to talk about it a little bit more. Now whether or not you really believe that that will be something that is coming soon or if it's just something that Tesla's trying to add here to soften the blow of the rest of the business up to your interpretation. But hopefully we've all seen that FSD version 12 has been a good step forward.
好了,让我们谈一谈科技。这可能是目前最重要的幻灯片之一。我们一直在投资于实现车辆自主和乘车服务所需的硬件和软件生态系统。我们相信,通过基于亿万英里真实世界数据的N10神经网络进行训练的预见性架构,可以实现一个可扩展和盈利的自主业务。自今年早些时候推出了S FSD监督V12以来,特斯拉一直追求的这种架构已经被证明是实现可扩展自主性的正确解决方案。为了进一步提升我们的N10训练容量或能力,我们将继续在未来几个月增加我们的核心AI基础设施容量。在第一季度,我们完成了向硬件4.0的过渡,这是我们最新的车载计算机,具有增强的推理处理能力和改进的摄像头。看看这些图表,太惊人了。我们向美国和加拿大符合条件的车辆推出了带有30天免费试用的FSD监督功能。FSD监督可以变换车道。是的,我们知道它能做什么。我们发布了自动停车功能,目前正在开发即将推出的乘车功能。我们相信特斯拉软件体验在所有产品中是最优秀的,并计划将乘车服务无缝地集成到特斯拉应用程序中。所以特斯拉网络,这个已经被讨论了很长时间的概念,现在特斯拉开始更多地谈论这个。无论你是否真的相信这将很快出现,或者这只是特斯拉试图加入的一种软化业务其他方面影响的方法,都取决于你的解释。但希望我们都看到了FSD版本12是一个很好的前进。

And I think the biggest question right now would be can those types of big steps forward continue with a frequent pace. And so far we've seen quite a few releases. I don't know that those releases have been those big steps forward yet, but they've also been the 12.3.4, 12.3.5. So not even, you know, second point releases. Hopefully, Elon has posted a couple times on X over the last couple of days regarding 12.3, sorry, 12.4 and 12.5. Hopefully those are kind of the big steps that we we would love to see. We'll look at this battery powertrain manufacturing quick. 4680 ramp continued successfully and Q1 continues to stay ahead of the Cybertruck ramp cost continue to come down sequentially as scrap yield and production rate improved. I'm sure we'll talk a bit more about that on the call.
我认为目前最大的问题是这种大步向前的方式能否以频繁的速度持续下去。到目前为止,我们已经看到了相当多的发布。我不知道这些发布是否已经迈出了那些重要的步伐,但它们也只是12.3.4、12.3.5。所以甚至不是,你知道,第二个点的发布。希望埃隆在过去几天里已经发了几次关于12.3、抱歉,12.4和12.5的帖子。希望那些是我们乐意看到的重要进展。我们将快速查看这个电池动力总成的制造,4680的扩产是否继续成功,Q1继续领先于Cybertruck扩产成本不断下降,随着废料产出率和生产速度的提高逐渐改善。我确信我们会在电话会议上再谈谈这些。

Obviously, we haven't talked about Drew yet, but Sadnessy drew the company after 18 years, of course, it's very long tenure. Very thankful to all Drew's contributions throughout the years and definitely will be sad to see him go. You know, it's definitely definitely always sad when executives leave. That being said, you know, that's a very long time to spend a Tesla. We've seen high level executives depart in the past. And while it can be a sign of something that's negative, it doesn't necessarily have to be. So, you know, it'll be exciting to see what Drew does from here and exciting to see who steps up into that kind of a role that is now potentially a little bit more open at Tesla. All right, so miles driven. Let's see what we're looking at here. FSDV 12 miles, FSD miles. So it looks like we're over 1.3, a little bit over 1.2 billion miles driven on FSD, which I think, you know, it wasn't too long ago that they had just crossed a billion. So we're seeing how quickly these are increasing. Of course, a lot of that driven by the free trial that Tesla had started offering. Now, with the lower subscription price, the lower purchase price, hopefully we do see a higher adoption rate for FSD, higher take rate, and continue to see this training increase. And of course, the fleet growing also helps.
显然,我们还没有谈到德鲁,但是悲伤的是,德鲁在18年后离开了公司,当然,这是一个非常长的任期。非常感谢德鲁在这些年里的所有贡献,肯定会很难过看他离开。你知道,当高管离开时,确实总是会感到难过。话虽如此,你知道,在特斯拉度过这么长时间确实很不容易。我们过去看到过高级主管离开。虽然这可能是一种负面的信号,但不一定是。所以,很期待看看德鲁接下来会做什么,很期待看到谁会接替他在特斯拉这个可能变得更加开放的职位上。好的,接下来看看行驶里程。看看我们这里的情况。全自动驾驶版本12英里,FSD英里。看来我们在全自动驾驶上行驶了超过1.3亿英里,稍微超过了12亿英里。我认为,不久之前他们刚刚突破了10亿英里。因此,我们正在看到这些增长速度有多快。当然,很大一部分是由特斯拉开始提供的免费试用所驱动。现在,随着更低的订阅价格,更低的购买价格,希望我们会看到全自动驾驶的更高采纳率,更高的接受率,并继续看到这种训练增加的趋势。当然,车队的增长也有所帮助。

Tesla AI training capacity. So that's a beautiful graph right there. So this would be an H100 equivalent GPU's. So Tesla had previously shown us a graph of their targets in A100 equivalents. I think they had intended to get that to, I don't know, 100,000, 200,000 or so, maybe 300,000 within the next sort of 18 months from when that was released. And the curve looked like this, but probably honestly even less steep than what we're seeing here. So it's exciting to see this. And as Tesla said, they're continuing to invest aggressively to increase their training capabilities. But if you just think about where where Tesla was, and I don't know, for version 11, you're probably looking at, you know, training off of sort of this set of data, so maybe less than half miles driven on FSD. Of course, there's shadow miles and things like that. But maybe less than half miles driven on FSD. Maybe I don't know, a 10 of the training capacity that they have now. And if this is already unlocked, what seems to be a pretty big step up as this continues to grow and as this continues to grow, and they get more time to actually utilize this, hopefully, you know, we really start to see those big steps, big steps continue because, you know, we're looking at an order of magnitude difference in terms of training capability from where Tesla is at today versus where they were even just, I don't know, six months ago, maybe eight months ago. So it's pretty massive difference. And hopefully again, the architecture is such that Tesla can really take advantage full advantage of those differences. So very exciting to see this chart, obviously. All right, other highlights, not out of business is becoming an increasingly profitable part of Tesla. Megapack continues to ramp. Great. Energy storage deployments increase sequentially to record 4.1 gigawatt hours. Energy generation and storage revenue and gross profit also achieved an all time high in Q1. Revenue is up 7% year over year. Gross profit, 140% year over year. Driven by increased megapack deployments, partially offset by a decrease in solar deployments. Energy generation and storage remains our highest margin business. Our second general assembly line is now commissioned. And we continue to ramp to our 40 gigawatt hour mega factory in way through California toward full capacity. Great. So sort of a not, I don't know if you'd call 7% small, it's still pretty decent year over year growth, small for the numbers that Tesla has put up historically, but 7% year over growth and revenue, 140% year over year growth and gross profit. And obviously, we've already started to see that in previous quarters, but nice to see that profit being driven in the energy business.
特斯拉的人工智能训练能力。所以这是一个非常美丽的图表。这些将相当于H100 GPU。特斯拉之前向我们展示过他们的目标图表,相当于A100。我想他们打算在未来18个月内达到10万,20万甚至30万,也许会是这样,但可能比我们现在看到的这个还要缓和一些。所以看到这个实在令人兴奋。正如特斯拉所说,他们正在积极投资以增加他们的训练能力。但如果您想想特斯拉过去所处的位置,我不知道,对于第11版,您可能会看到,你知道,从FSD驾驶中训练出这套数据,也许不到一半的英里。当然,还有阴影英里之类的东西。但也许现在的训练能力只有过去的十分之一。如果这已经实现了,“像这样继续增长,这将是一个相当大的进步,当这继续增长,他们有更多时间来利用这一点,希望我们真的开始看到这些大步,大步继续,因为你知道,我们在训练能力方面的差距与特斯拉如今所处位置之间是一个数量级的差距,甚至只是,我不知道,六个月前,也许是八个月前。所以这是一个相当大的差距。希望再次,体系结构是这样的,特斯拉确实能够充分利用这些差异。所以看到这张图表显然非常令人兴奋。其他亮点,不动产正在成为特斯拉日益盈利的一部分。Megapack继续扩展。能源储备部署按次增加,达到创纪录的4.1千兆瓦小时。在第一季度,能源发电和储备收入和毛利润也实现了历史最高水平。收入同比增长7%。毛利润同比增长140%。受到Megapack部署增加的推动,部分抵消了太阳能部署的下降。能源发电和储备仍然是我们最高利润的业务。我们的第二条总装线现在已经投产。我们继续扩大规模,向着加利福尼亚州的40千兆瓦小时超级工厂的全产能迈进。非常好。所以有一个7%的同比增长,不知道是否可以说是小规模的,对于特斯拉过去的盈利数字来说,这仍然是相当可观的增长,收入和毛利润同比增长140%。显然,我们在先前的季度已经看到了这一点,但看到利润在能源业务中增长还是很令人满意的。

Services and other grew 25% year over year in Q1, gross profit down 40%. So inverse of what we just talked about with energy, the biggest driver gross profit reduction year over year was lower used vehicle profit. So not surprising, partially offset by growth and gross profit from part sales. Starting at the end of February, we began opening North American supercharger network to more Tesla EV owners.
在第一季度,服务和其他方面的增长同比增长25%,但毛利下降40%。与我们刚刚谈到的能源情况正好相反,导致毛利年度降低最大的原因是二手车销售利润降低。部分地被零部件销售的增长所抵消。从二月底开始,我们开始向更多特斯拉电动车车主开放北美超级充电网络。

We continue to onboard OEMs who have committed to NACS over the coming quarters, while also opening up more sites to other EVs and regions outside North America, both of which should drive incremental revenue and profit generation. So here we can see energy storage deployments and non-automative gross profit sets a mix of, of course, energy, service and other.
我们会在未来几个季度继续吸纳已承诺支持NACS的OEM厂商,同时为其他电动车和北美以外地区开发更多站点,这两者都将推动增量收入和利润增长。因此,我们可以看到能源储存部署和非汽车方面的毛利润集合了不同的因素,当然包括能源、服务和其他因素。

All right, give me one second, take a drink here. It looks like we've got more words than usual on this outlook page. See what the stock is doing. Up 6%. Still not seeing exactly why the markets reacting in that way, but definitely we'll take it. All right, volume. Our company is currently between two major growth waves.
好的,给我一秒钟,我这里先喝口水。看起来这份展望页面上的词汇比平常多。看看股票的情况。上涨了6%。目前仍然不清楚市场为什么会做出这种反应,但肯定会接受。好的,下一个是交易量。我们公司目前处于两波主要增长浪潮之间。

Make sure I'm not covering that. The first one we began with the global expansion of the Model 3 slash Y platform. And we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform.
确保我没有涉及到那个。我们开始的第一个阶段是Model 3 / Y平台的全球扩张。我们相信下一个阶段将由自动驾驶技术的进步和新产品的推出引发,其中包括基于我们下一代车辆平台的产品。

In 2024, our vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products. In 2024, the growth rate of energy storage deployments and revenue in our energy storage and generation business should outpace the automotive business.
2024年,由于我们的团队致力于推出下一代车辆和其他产品,可能会导致我们的车辆增长率明显低于2023年的增长率。2024年,我们的储能和发电业务中能源储存部署和收入的增长率应该会超过汽车业务。

So that actually might be pretty similar to what we saw in Q4 in that section. We can go back and look, but cash, we have sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap, et cetera. Great. While we continue to execute on innovations to reduce cost of manufacturing operations, over time, we expect our hardware related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI software and fleet-based profits.
所以实际上这可能与我们在Q4中看到的那部分非常相似。我们可以回头看一下,但我们有足够的流动性来资助我们的产品路线图等等。太好了。在继续执行创新以降低制造运营成本的同时,随着时间的推移,我们预计我们与硬件相关的利润将伴随着AI软件和基于车队的利润加速增长。

All right, product, we have updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025. All right, well, this could be a reason the stock would be moving. These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform, as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup.
好的,产品,我们已经更新了未来车型系列,以加快推出新车型,提前于我们先前通知的2025年下半年开始生产的时间。好的,嗯,这可能是股票走势的原因。这些新车型,包括更多价格实惠的车型,将利用下一代平台以及我们当前平台的部分特点,并且可以在与我们当前车型系列相同的生产线上生产。

This update may result in achieving less less cost reduction than previously expected, but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our current expected minimum, our current expected maximum capacity of close to 3 million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.
这次更新可能导致成本降低的幅度比先前预期的要少,但有助于我们在不确定时期以更节约资本支出的方式谨慎地增加车辆产量。这将帮助我们充分利用我们目前预期的最低产能和近300万辆车的最大产能,使我们能够在投资于新的生产线之前实现超过2023年产量50%以上的增长。

Our purpose built robot taxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary unboxed manufacturing strategy. All right, we had to get all the way to the end, but that seems to be probably be a big factor in what's happening with the stock. So I just want to quickly look through here. We'll come back to that point though, because that is obviously an important update.
我们为自动出租车量身定制的产品将继续追求一种革命性的无箱包装制造策略。好的,我们必须一直看到最后,但这似乎可能是股票走势的一个重要因素。所以我想快速查看一下这里。不过我们会回到这一点,因为显然这是一个重要的更新。

All right, EV adoption rate remains under pressure, especially outside of China. So, yeah, I mean, I think a lot of people's hopes would be that this would be a little bit different of a graph where we'd just kind of continue to scale up and up. But kind of start to see things maybe plateauing a little bit.
好的,电动汽车的采用率仍然在压力之下,特别是在中国以外的地区。所以,是的,我认为很多人希望这个图表会有所不同,我们会继续不断扩大规模。但是现在开始可能会看到一些放缓的迹象。

And of course, with Tesla being a big portion of global BV market share, as Tesla results go, so does EV market share to an extent, not fully but to an extent, especially outside of China. So, you know, hopefully, we continue to see this grow in future years. Maybe we're just in a little bit of a rough spot right now sounds like some of the stuff that Tesla is doing can help re accelerate this, but we'll have to see.
当然,特斯拉在全球电动汽车市场份额占据很大比例,因此随着特斯拉的业绩,电动汽车市场份额也会在一定程度上增长,尤其是在中国以外的地区。希望未来几年这种增长会持续下去。也许我们现在只是遇到了一点困难,听起来特斯拉正在做的一些事情可以帮助加速这种增长,但是我们还需要等待观察。

All right, Tesla ecosystem. So I think this is, you know, a very, very well put together chart of things that we have talked about forever. So I think probably nothing here that we haven't really covered well, but just maps out all the areas that Tesla's involved in.
好的,特斯拉生态系统。我认为这是一个非常完善的图表,涵盖了我们所讨论过的所有内容。我认为在这里没有什么是我们没有深入探讨过的,只是概括了特斯拉涉及的所有领域。

And of course, one of these gets a little bit more attention than the rest and not to say that there's not good reason for that, but it goes to show, you know, the commoner frame is that Tesla is an aggregation of a lot of different startups. And I think when you kind of look at things like this, you start to see some of that.
当然,其中一个受到的关注略微多一点,并不是说没有充分理由,但这表明,你知道,普通的观点是特斯拉是许多不同初创公司的集合。我认为当你从这种角度看事情时,你会开始看到一些这样的情况。

And, you know, some of these probably going to be successful, maybe some of them a little bit less successful. Obviously, the slower business is stagnated for quite some time. But if there are successes in some of these other areas, you know, there's a lot of potential within those. So again, stuff that we've talked about, but still nice to see it put together like that. That's the new performance model three. Cyber truck, nice to see all those. I'm sure everyone has seen the drone flyover videos and the just the volume that we're seeing them cyber truck these days. Supercharger network opening up in North America, if only. This is kind of funny because these are V3 superchargers. So these cars can actually charge like this. But it's a nice photo. And with V4, maybe they actually could.
你知道,这些项目中有一些可能会取得成功,也许有些会稍微不太成功。显然,这个发展缓慢的行业已经停滞了相当长时间。但如果在其他领域取得了成功,你知道,在其中有很大的潜力。所以再次说到我们谈论过的东西,但还是很高兴看到它们像这样汇聚在一起。这就是全新的Performance Model Three。塞伯特卡车,很高兴看到这些。我相信每个人都看过无人机飞越视频,以及我们现在看到的塞伯特卡车数量。北美超级充电网络开放了,如果真的有这么多V3充电站就好了。这有点有趣,因为这些是V3充电站。所以这些车实际上可以这样充电。但这是一张漂亮的照片。也许有了V4,他们真的能够这样做。

All right, ride hailing app. So Tesla putting this together. Maybe we zoom in a little bit here. Oh, try to zoom in a little bit here. All right, so we've got a summon feature. Just hold to order. The vehicle would come pick you up. This is looking like a cooler looking Uber can preset your climate, noting your capacity. A little bit more on the climate there. Riving now. And then you're out. I mean, it looks like a very well put together app from what we can see here. I mean, the visualizations look really nice. I don't, you know, in terms of solving robot taxi, I've always thought that this is. I mean, it seems pretty obviously that this would be the lower hanging fruit in terms of the challenges that need to be solved. But it is cool to see that Tesla's kind of got this development in the works. And yeah, I mean, it looks cool. Just get this back to normal size here if I can.
好的,乘车应用。那么特斯拉正在组装这个。也许我们在这里放大一点。哦,试着在这里放大一点。好的,所以我们有一个召唤功能。只需按住以订购。车辆会过来接你。这看起来像一个更酷的Uber,可以预设你的气候,注意到你的容量。再详细谈谈气候。现在启动。然后你就出发了。我是说,从我们这里看来,这个应用看起来组织得非常好。我的意思是,视觉效果看起来很不错。我认为解决无人驾驶出租车的问题时,我一直认为这是。我认为很明显,这将是需要解决的挑战中较易解决的那个。但很酷的是看到特斯拉正在开发这个。是的,看起来很酷。如果可以的话,让这个恢复到正常大小。

All right, dojo training cluster, not a render. That's exciting. I think Elon had been, I don't know if bearish is the right word, but maybe a little bit less optimistic on dojo. The last earnings call, he's always framed it as something that is maybe high risk, high reward, a little bit of a long shot. But cool to see this not a render here that looks exactly like rendering that we've seen in the past. Megapack. Tesla, semi started construction. I would love if they could start cranking out some Tesla semis. So it's good to see some work being done there. Cost grinds, squeezing every penny out of the vehicle cost. I'm sure this is something that Tesla has done many times.
好的,道场培训群集,不是渲染。这真是令人兴奋。我觉得埃隆之前可能对道场持悲观态度,我不确定“看跌”是正确的词汇,但也许有点不太乐观。在上次的财报电话会议上,他总是把它描述为一种或许有高风险、高回报,有点长线投机的项目。但很酷的是,看到这个不是渲染的图像,看起来与我们过去看到的渲染图像一模一样。超级电池组。特斯拉,半挂车已经开始施工。我会很高兴看到他们开始生产特斯拉半挂车。所以很高兴看到有一些工作正在做。成本控制,尽可能地节约每一分钱的车辆成本。我相信这是特斯拉已经做了很多次的事情。

All right, and then we've got our charts, and then we've got financials, which we'll go through, of course, as well in a bit. But I do want to go back and just want to read through this and make sure I'm understanding it and talk a little bit more about it. Stocks still have five. Great. All right, we have updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated startup production in the second half of 2025. All right, so we're a little bit more than a quarter of the way through 2024. Second half of 2025, that'd basically be 18 months. They're accelerating above that, which means we should have a launch of a new model in 12 months, maybe even sooner, which is pretty exciting. These new vehicles, plural, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform, as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup. So less cost reduction than the full unbox process might allow for, but allows for growth in vehicle volumes in a more cap cap ex-efficient manner. So to help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to 3 million vehicles. So more fully utilized, that doesn't mean everyone should just expect, hey, it's going to go right to 3 million, but more fully utilize the 3 million capacity, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production, which I'd have to look but we know that was a little bit less than 2 million, I believe. Yeah, so more than 50% growth. Before investing in new manufacturing lines, purpose-built robot taxi product will continue to pursue, pursue, unbox manufacturing strategy.
好的,然后我们有我们的图表,接着还有财务报表,我们当然也会稍后进行审查。但我想回头再看看这个并确定我理解了,并稍微详细讨论一下。股票仍然有五。很好,我们已更新了未来的汽车产品线,以加快新车型的推出速度,早于我们之前宣布的2025年下半年开始生产。那好吧,我们已经过了2024年的四分之一了。2025年下半年,基本上是18个月。他们正在加快速度,意味着我们应该会在12个月之内推出新车型,甚至可能更快,这非常令人兴奋。这些新汽车,复数形式,包括更实惠的车型,将利用下一代平台的一些方面,以及我们当前平台的一些方面,并且可以与我们当前的车型生产线上相同的生产线上进行生产。因此,与完全的解封过程可能允许的成本降低相比较少,但以更具资本支出效率的方式实现车辆产量增长。为了帮助我们充分利用接近300万辆车的当前预期最大容量。更充分地利用,这并不意味着每个人都应该期望,嘿,它将立即将达到300万辆,但更充分地利用这300万辆的容量,使得超过50%的增长超过了2023年的产量,我必须看一下,但我们知道那可能少于200万辆,我相信是的。是的,超过50%的增长。在投资新的生产线之前,专为无人驾驶出租车产品打造的产品将继续追求、执行解封制造策略。

All right, so if we put this together with the Reuters report, where who knows how much of that was accurate, how much of it was not. Like I said, I imagine there's some probably small part of that that is based in reality. And from what it sounds like from this update is that maybe the part of that that's based in reality is that maybe Tesla is putting off this, you know, next generation, unboxed, built vehicle, at least in one form, to then accelerate things that are now falling into sort of this bucket, which would be, you know, not fully in that next generation platform, but still utilizing some things from it. Also combining some things from Tesla's current manufacturing capacity and allowing those things to come to market sooner. Now, of course, that would be a target. Tesla will still have to execute on that, but to be able to do that and continue to growth, I think is something that, you know, unsurprisingly, the market is going to be liking. So it's, you know, I think it makes sense that there is some excitement. I'm excited about it too. For me, I'm always thinking long-term. So whether something happens in the first part of 2025 or the second half of 2025, to me, it doesn't really make too much of a difference. Like I've said many times before, I view this stage of Tesla as a stage that's important for providing the profitability, providing the cash flow to be able to make the investments in Tesla's next stage of growth, which I think is going to come as I've said many times from a couple of things. One would be the next generation platform, which is now, I guess, bifurcated a little bit between a couple of strategies. And then the second, of course, through FSD, autonomy. And then you get sort of like a three, you know, two, two B or something like that with with Tesla energy, which we've seen a lot of solid development with that business line as well. So I think those are the things to be excited about. This changes the path of that a little bit, where I don't think it changes too much in terms of the things I'm excited about really long-term with Tesla. But if the market can get a little bit excited about something happening a little bit more soon, obviously, you know, that's not going to hurt the share price and probably will be helpful like we're seeing here.
好的,所以如果我们把这个与路透社的报道结合起来,谁知道其中有多少是准确的,有多少不准确。就像我说的,我想其中可能有一小部分是基于现实的。从这次更新听起来,也许其中基于现实的部分可能是特斯拉推迟了这个下一代未封装建造的车辆,至少在某种形式上,然后加速了现在正在逐渐实现的一些事情,这些事情可能并非完全是基于下一代平台,但仍在利用其中的一些元素。同时结合特斯拉当前的制造能力,让这些东西更早地进入市场。当然,这是一个目标。特斯拉仍然需要执行这一计划,但能够做到这一点并继续增长,我认为市场肯定会欣喜。所以,我认为有一些兴奋是有道理的。我也对此感到兴奋。对我来说,我一直在考虑长期。对我来说,2025年上半年发生还是下半年发生并不会有太大的区别。正如我之前说过的,我认为特斯拉目前的重要性在于提供盈利能力,提供现金流,以便为特斯拉下一个增长阶段的投资做准备,这个增长阶段可能会像我多次说过的那样,来自几个方面。一个是下一代平台,现在可能在几种策略之间有所分岐。其次,当然是通过全自动驾驶(FSD)来实现。然后,再加上特斯拉能源,我们也看到了这个业务线的许多实质性的发展。我认为这些都是值得兴奋的事情。这个变化在一定程度上改变了这条路径,我认为它并没有改变我对特斯拉长期兴奋的事物太多。但如果市场能对一些更快发生的事情感到兴奋,显然,这不会伤害股价,可能会有所帮助,就像我们在这里看到的那样。

Now, the other thing that's potentially a little bit exciting here is that in about an hour, we should get a little bit more information, I would assume, about what exactly the plans are here on the earnings call. And again, I'll be doing my normal coverage for that. The link for that will be in the description today. All right, so let's see. I've seen some chats here. Appreciate those super chats. Thank you. So I mean, yeah, some pretty exciting stuff in here. I think people went into this with very low expectations, probably myself included. I did not have high expectations for this given, you know, the pressure on the business from the lower number of deliveries. And, you know, we're seeing some of the financial results come in a little bit below expectations. I still think, you know, we're in a period where Tesla is ramping up the cyber truck. They mentioned a couple of different challenges with Model 3 with the Gigabra Lin situation. And Q1 in general is just always a tough time. And if any of you have seen other results from other EV makers, man, it's been tough out there. Certainly not just Tesla that is facing challenges with EV sales at the moment. So I know a lot of the blame always just gets put to Elon. But, you know, if you look at these other companies that certainly would not be facing any impact from that, there's more going on in the EV market than just that.
现在,这里可能有一件稍微令人兴奋的事情是,在大约一个小时内,我们应该会得到一些更多信息,我想会在盈利电话会议上详细说明具体计划。再次强调,我会像往常一样进行报道。今天的链接将放在描述中。好的,让我们看看。我看到一些聊天记录。感谢那些打赏的朋友们。谢谢你们。所以,我是说,在这里有一些相当令人兴奋的内容。我想人们对此的期望可能都很低,我自己也是。鉴于交付数量减少给企业带来的压力,我对此也没有很高的期望。我们看到一些财务结果略低于预期。我仍然认为,特斯拉正处于推动独立卡车的阶段。他们提到了Model 3面临的一些挑战,以及Gigabrabin的情况。总的来说,第一季度总是一个艰难的时期。如果你们看到其他EV制造商的成绩单的话,天啊,当下情况确实很严峻。当然,并不只有特斯拉在当前面临EV销售挑战。我知道,很多责怪总是都怪到伊隆身上。但是,如果你看看那些其他公司,他们显然不会受到这种影响,EV市场中发生的事情不止如此。

So all right, maybe I'll top over to Excel and we'll start putting in some numbers here. I do think the non-numbers portion of this earnings report is much more consequential, much more interesting. But nevertheless, good to kind of just take a look at how things are flowing through and coming together. So we'll hop over to Excel for the most fun part of the day. If I can find it, we'll start crunching some numbers. All right, so energy, generation, and storage. Let's see. Did they take this off? I don't know if we get the solar number. I don't think we do. Sometimes I miss things, so I could be wrong and maybe it's in here somewhere, but I'm not seeing the energy generation portion broken out anymore. So that should tell you something, also just hop back to Safari here for a second.
好吧,也许我会转到Excel,开始输入一些数字。我觉得这份财报中非数字部分更具影响力,更有趣。但无论如何,看看事情是如何进行和汇总起来的是挺好的。所以我们将转到Excel进行一天中最有趣的部分。如果我找得到它,我们就开始计算一些数字。好,能源、发电和储存。让我看看。他们把这个去掉了吗?我不知道我们是否会得到太阳能数字。我想我们没有。有时候我会漏掉一些东西,所以我可能错了,也许它在这里的某个地方,但我没有看到能源发电部分再被单独列出。这应该告诉你一些东西,还有就是再转回Safari查看一下。

I'm also not seeing solar roof particularly in here. I am seeing solar.
我在这里也没有看到太阳能屋顶,但有太阳能。

So I don't know. I'm not seeing energy generation though, so I guess we'll just have to leave that point for the time being and we'll move on to the other categories. Obviously, if we look at the trend here, it's been trending down. This is relatively really inconsequential to the overall scope of Tesla's business. I think it's just an area that people were excited about the potential for in the future. But in a high interest rate environment, solar gets much, much more challenging, so it's not terribly surprising that in an environment like that, that it comes along with a lot of struggles. Maybe that'll change in the future. Maybe not. It doesn't seem to be at the top of Tesla's priority list and probably makes sense that it's not. All right. Anyway, auto sales, that one we definitely have somewhere here. Okay, so total automotive revenues, I don't know if we get regular torque credits, although I thought that last time and then we did, so we'd probably do 17, 378. So yeah, like we said, not quite half a billion below analyst consensus. But let's see what regulatory credits looked like. So those were 442. So still pretty high, not much of a actually a small increase sequentially. But nothing, nothing insane that's driving it. We don't know that deferred FSD revenue portion yet, so that'll be interesting. It may be in the release, we may have to wait until the 10Q. So we've got 1635 here for energy sales. Yeah, I'm not surprised that that came in lower. That seemed like a high ASP estimate. Energy and then service and others, service is another 2288. So 21.03. So that matches up with the total revenue there. Let's hold on for a second before we calculate ASPs because we'll need some other information for that. So automotive profit, we just need to subtract out cost of goods. That's going to be 14166. And then energy profit, take out 1232. So yeah, another really healthy energy storage margin, 24.6% there. And then services and other, take out 2207. And then let's make sure that that total gross profit matches, which it does. Great. All right, so actually total gross margin percent beating expectations. So we must have higher operating costs here. Well, no, because we had higher lower margin or lower revenues. So we'll see. But I think that's one of the reasons that things are doing okay right now as well as all the product updates that we just talked about. I'm sure that's calculating something correctly. Should be fine.
所以我不知道。我没有看到能源产生,所以我猜我们就暂时放下这一点,继续谈论其他类别。显然,如果我们看一下这里的趋势,一直在下降。这对特斯拉整体业务范围来说相对而言并不重要。我认为这只是一个人们对未来潜力感到兴奋的领域。但在高利率环境中,太阳能变得更加具有挑战性,所以在这样的环境中,它带来了许多困难并不是非常令人惊讶。也许未来会改变。也许不会。看起来并不是特斯拉的优先事项,这也许是有道理的。好了。无论如何,汽车销售,这个我们确实有一些数据。好的,所以总汽车收入,我不知道我们是否得到常规扭矩学分,尽管上次我也认为可能没有,结果我们也得到了,所以可能是17,378。所以,就像我们说的,与分析师共识不到五亿美元。但让我们看看规定学分是什么样的。所以这些是442。所以仍然相当高,实际上是一个小幅度的环比增长。但没有什么疯狂的推动因素。我们现在还不知道推迟的FSD收入部分,所以这将很有趣。也许在报告中会有,也许我们需要等到10Q。所以我们这里的能源销售是1635。是的,我不惊讶它的收入较低。那似乎是一个高ASP估计值。能源以及服务和其他收入,服务另外2288。所以总计21.03。这与总收入匹配。在计算ASP之前先暂停一下,因为我们需要其他一些信息。所以汽车利润,我们只需要扣除成本。这将是14166。然后能源利润,扣除1232。所以是一个非常健康的能源存储利润率,24.6%。然后服务和其他方面,扣除2207。然后确保总毛利匹配,它确实匹配。太好了。那么实际上总毛利率百分比超出了预期。所以我们可能有更高的运营成本。嗯,不是因为我们有更高的边际或更低的收入。所以我们会看到。但我认为这也是目前事情进展顺利的原因之一,还有我们刚刚谈论的所有产品更新。我相信它正在正确计算某些东西。应该没问题。

So we're only seeing an 80 basis point decline in automotive gross margins quarter over quarter. And you got to consider that there were things in this quarter that were negative cost impacts like what they had talked about with K Berlin with the switch over for Model 3 Highland. Plus, of course, you just have a lot lower volume. And that has the reverse reverse economies of scale effect on average cost of goods sold. So that puts margin pressure on each individual vehicle that's sold. I think that holding up okay is something that the market's going to be relatively okay with. And it's nice to see, of course, the the improvement in energy gross margin. And services and other, we talked about that margin being down year over year, but actually still up sequentially quarter over quarter, not super materially, but whenever you see something that has kind of down trended for a few quarters, start to go back the other direction, that's always nice to see too. So overall margin percentage beating expectations and probably not driven too much by regulatory credits remains to be seen how much of that could be driven from FSD released revenue. All right, so R and D, we don't get an analyst consensus on that, but that was 1151. So pretty much in line with where we've seen things the last couple of quarters. SGNA was 1374. Of course, none of the CEO compensation, or I guess that's Bitcoin right there. Let's see. Yeah, nothing, nothing on that line. So total operating expenses, 2525. So a couple hundred million more in operating expenses than street estimates, which I'm not sure why they were quite so low. I think my estimate would have been a little bit higher, probably in between these two numbers. But you can see SGNA R and D both not relates you out of line, just slow sequential increases quarter over quarter. But when you have the revenue decline, of course, higher operating expenses, your operating margin is going to suffer, which it did this quarter, and of course down significantly year over year, and a little bit below analyst expectations.
因此,我们在汽车毛利方面季度环比仅见到基础点下降了80个基点。要考虑的是,本季度有一些负面成本影响,比如他们在K柏林换车型3 Highland的谈论。当然,你的销量降低了很多。这对平均销售成本产生了逆向的规模经济效应。因此,这给每辆售出的汽车都施加了边际压力。我认为市场会对这种保持OK的情况相对满意。当然,很高兴看到能源毛利的改善。此外,我们讨论了服务和其他方面的毛利年度下降,但实际上季度环比仍有提升,虽然不是很显著,但每当你看到一些在过去几个季度中下滑的东西开始往反方向发展,总是令人愉悦。因此,总体利润百分比超过预期,可能并不太多地受到监管信贷的影响,现在还不清楚多少能够来自于FSD发布的收入。关于研发方面,我们还没有得到分析师的共识,但数字是1151。大致与过去几个季度的状况相符。销售、广告和管理费用为1374。当然,没有任何首席执行官的薪酬,或者我猜那是比特币的吧。让我看看。是的,在这一项上什么也没有。所以总经营费用为2525。比街头估计高了几个亿美元,我不确定他们为什么估计得这么低。我觉得我的估计会更高一些,可能在这两个数字之间。但你可以看到销售、广告和管理费用都没有超出范围,只是每个季度都缓慢增长。但是当你的收入下降时,运营费用相对增加,你的运营利润就会受到影响,这在本季度确实发生了,并且当然与去年同期相比大幅下降,略低于分析师的预期。

All right, EBITDA was 3.4 billion almost. Non-Gapnet income. So yeah, I think I estimated maybe 100 million short of consensus. Looks like about 150 there. Stock based comp. Was 524. So that drove a, you know, 40 million dollars of the SGNA increase that we saw here of about 100. None of that would be CEO competition. Gapnet income, a couple hundred million short due to both lower non-Gapnet income, and a little bit higher stock based compensation. So that's going to drive this a little bit lower. Where if we look at that, we're at 34 cents gap. 45 cents non-Gap. So if we look at what the PE will show, it's going to show $3.92. So let's say we're at 150 now after market somewhere in that ballpark. We're going to be at a price earnings ratio. You're going to see a 38, but reality, we've got to take out this, you know, one time special item. So really we're at 222 over the last 12 months in gap earnings per share, which is about 68 times earnings, which is where we started the debt.
好的,EBITDA几乎达到了34亿。这是非通用会计净收入。所以我估计可能比共识少1亿。看起来大概是150万左右。基于股权的薪酬是524万。这导致了我们在SGNA增加了大约1亿美元的部分。其中没有包括CEO竞争。由于非通用会计净收入较低和股权薪酬较高,通用会计净收入少了几亿美元。所以这会导致股价有所下跌。如果我们看一下,通用会计是34美分,非通用会计是45美分。所以如果我们看市盈率,会显示3.92美元。假设现在股价在市场上是150美元左右,那么我们的市盈率是38,但事实上,我们必须扣除这一次特殊项。所以在过去12个月中,我们的通用会计每股收益是2.22美元,大约是68倍的市盈率,这也是我们开始负债的地方。

So um, you just see stocks up 6.6% so we're at 154 actually. So adjust as needed, but somewhere right around 69 times earnings, of course. All right, free cash flow. Let's see last number here. And then we can do the ASPs. Negative two five three one. Which of course, not surprising given the large inventory build and the significant cap expense that Tesla's had in the quarter. We'll see in the 10Q. I don't know if they would say this in the earnings report, but it sounds like their cap expleture is going up quite a bit. I know they had already increased it, but it seems like yet again, probably increasing. And since they talked about the product portion, like the actual vehicle manufacturing being less capital intensive with the current strategy, I mean, you can put two and two together, obviously significant AI investments being made.
所以,你只是看到股票上涨了6.6%,所以我们实际上是在154。所以根据需要调整,但大约在69倍盈利,当然了。好吧,自由现金流。让我们看看最后一个数字。然后我们可以做ASP。为负2531。当然,这并不奇怪,考虑到特斯拉在季度中大量库存建设和重大资本支出。我们将在10Q中看到。我不知道他们是否会在收益报告中说这个,但听起来他们的资本支出可能会大幅增加。我知道他们已经增加了,但似乎又增加了。由于他们谈到了产品部分,像实际的车辆制造与当前战略相比资本需求较低,我是说,你可以将这个加在一起,显然正在进行重大的人工智能投资。

All right, so let's see, let's look at ASP here. We've got most of this filled in. We've got to grab auto revenue from leasing. Okay. So that was 476. And then costs of leasing was 269. And deliveries was 8000 something. Let's see. 8365. All right, so those should be correct then. And I don't know, my formula must be. Must be off here. Let's see if that helps it. Cool. All right, year over year, average selling price down 8%, not terribly surprising, costs of goods sold though, also down 5% year over year. Sorry, that's a little bit messed up over there. And then sequentially looks like average selling price is actually held up, almost identical quarter over quarter. And hopefully a cyber truck will, well, cyber truck may not increase as a percent of mix just because this quarter was quite a bit low for other vehicle deliveries. So we'd have to see what that'll shake out to be.
好的,让我们看看,看看ASP。我们已经填写了大部分内容。我们需要从租赁中获取自动收入。好的,所以那个是476。然后租赁成本是269。交付量是8000多。让我看看。8365。好的,那些应该是正确的。我不知道,我的公式可能有错误。让我们看看能否帮助解决。很好。一年比一年,平均销售价格下降了8%,这并不是很令人惊讶,尽管成本销售也比上年同期下降了5%。抱歉,那边有点混乱。然后按顺序看,平均销售价格实际上保持基本不变,与上个季度几乎相同。希望Cybertruck会增加车型的比例,因为本季度其他车辆交付量相当低。所以我们得看看最终会如何。

But anyway, costs of goods sold increasing about $500 quarter over quarter, but still declining a couple, you know, $1,800 year over year. That quarter over quarter decrease or increase, sorry. I think Tesla in the earnings deck here said that it would have decreased quarter over quarter had there not been the Gigabra Lynn situation and the Model 3 Highland situation. So let me just flip back over, we can take a look at that note. So the arson attack at Gigabra Lynn, the gradual ramp of Model 3 Highland, excluding a cyber truck and unscheduled downtime, costs of goods sold per unit declined sequentially, even though we saw the $500 increase there. On the final bottom line costs.
但无论如何,销售成本每个季度增加约500美元,但仍然比前一年下降了大约1800美元。这个季度与季度之间的增减变化,抱歉。我认为特斯拉在这里的收益报告中说,如果没有吉加布拉林和Model 3 高地的情况,销售成本在季度之间会有所下降。让我翻回去,我们可以看一下那个注释。吉加布拉林的纵火袭击、Model 3 高地的逐渐增长,除了赛博卡车和未经计划的停机时间外,每辆单位的销售成本在逐步下降,尽管我们在那里看到了500美元的增加。最终底线成本。

All right, so like I said, I think most of the interesting things are coming from the actual shareholder letter versus these financials. Like I said, we're a little bit below analyst consensus, but you know, not so far below, I think most of the miss is probably coming from this revenue line. But the fact that average selling prices actually held up okay, I think is encouraging. Just thinking here, I wish we could see what analyst consensus was for regulatory credits, but probably somewhere in that range, maybe a bit lower. But I think always the big concern is how are average selling prices holding up? Maybe people wanted a little bit better number there just because of the decline in deliveries. You know, if you're selling less, maybe you're hoping you can get some at a little bit higher price, but Q1 versus Q4 is very different environment for automotive business. So nothing, I don't know, nothing else sticking out too much here to me. Like I said, the energy gross margin is really encouraging. You can see how that improved over the year, only 11% last year at relatively similar volume. You know, 4% increase in actual storage deployed. I think Tesla said 7% increase in revenue, which we could probably look at right there. But I think that's a lot of the biggest improvements in gross margins. So exciting to see that. And I think things are going to grow pretty significantly from here. I mean, in laythrough up, obviously 40 gigawatt hours of capacity coming online. So, you know, that's 10 gigawatt hours per quarter, of course. And then I think either this quarter or next quarter, they're going to start commissioning the, or maybe they're starting construction, I don't know, I would have to look again. But at some point relatively soon, we're going to be also starting to see a contribution from the second mega factory in China. So that's also 40 gigawatt hour capacity. We could be looking at five times this amount of volume. Maybe not next year, but once those are fully ramped up, that's where we'll be. So a lot of growth to come, I think, in energy storage, which is exciting, especially if it's happening at these margins. You know, you can do the math on what type of revenue contribution that would make, and how that looks relative to auto. It's not going to eclipse auto at that point, but it should be a bigger percentage of the total. And if it is happening at a higher gross margin, obviously that helps boost the bottom line for the overall business.
好的,就像我说的,我认为大部分有趣的事情来自于实际的股东信函,而不是这些财务报表。就像我说的,我们略低于分析师的共识,但你知道,并不是太低,我认为大部分的差距可能来自于收入这一项。但实际销售价格实际上保持得还可以,我认为这是令人鼓舞的。我在想,我希望我们能看到分析师对监管信用的共识是多少,可能在那个范围内,也许会低一点。但我认为总是最大的担忧是平均销售价格能够保持吗?也许人们希望在这方面有一个更好的数字,只是因为交付量下降。你知道,如果销售量减少,也许你希望你能以稍高一点的价格销售一些,但第一季度与第四季度对于汽车业务来说是非常不同的环境。所以,对我来说,在这里没有什么其他引人注目的东西了。就像我说的,能源毛利实际上是令人鼓舞的。你可以看到去年只有11%的相对相似的体积。你知道,实际存储部署增加了4%。我认为特斯拉说了7%的收入增长,我们可能可以直接查看。但我认为,很多最大的毛利改进都发生在这里。看到这一点真是令人兴奋。我认为从这里开始,事情会有相当大的增长。我是说,毕竟,显然会增加40千兆瓦小时的产能。所以,你知道,这当然是每个季度增加10千兆瓦小时。然后我认为这个季度或下个季度,他们会开始启动,或者可能开始建设,我不知道,我得再看看。但在不久的将来,我们也会开始看到来自中国第二个超级工厂的贡献。所以这也是40千兆瓦时的产能。我们可以看看是不是五倍于这个数量的产量。也许不是明年,但一旦这些设施完全投产,那时就会发生。所以我认为能源存储有很多增长的空间,这是令人兴奋的,尤其是如果以这种毛利率发生的话。你可以算一下这种增长会给收入带来多大贡献,以及这与汽车的关系。那时它不会超过汽车,但它应该会占总收入的较大比例。如果它以更高的毛利率发生,显然有助于提升整体业务的底线。

All right, I think that is, we got 8,000 people watching. Hey, everybody. And looked at that. I'm glad you guys were able to find it again. I never know what YouTube will recommend or not. All right, I'm going to flip back to the browser. I'm going to look at some chats here. I do see some super chats. Thank you. I greatly appreciate that guys. It's good to be back. Good to be back on a day that we get, you know, nice little stock price increase here, up 8%. That is nice. I think the market is really loving this, this revised plan, which I do have to kind of laugh at, right? It's like, the revised plan is basically to just do stuff faster, but maybe a little bit less well than they ultimately could do it. It's kind of what they're saying here. And maybe that's a negative framing of it because, you know, time is valuable, money is valuable, all that sort of stuff.
好的,我想现在有8,000人在观看。嘿,大家。看看那个。我很高兴你们能再次找到它。我从来不知道YouTube会推荐什么。现在,我要切换回浏览器。我要看看一些聊天内容。我看到一些超级聊天。谢谢。我非常感激你们。回来真是太好了。回来的那一天,我们看到了股价增长8%。这太好了。我觉得市场真的很喜欢这个修改过的计划,他们似乎在说,修改计划基本上就是做事情更快,但可能不如他们最终能做到的那么好。也许这是对它的负面描述,因为你知道,时间很珍贵,金钱也很珍贵,这些东西。

But essentially what they're saying is, you know, they're just going to do things a little bit more quickly, a little bit more capital light, then sort of going all in, and which may take a little bit longer, may ultimately be a little bit more efficient. But, you know, with the downside of it maybe being a period of very slow growth for a long time, which the market never likes those sort of things. So it's just a little bit amusing to me that that gets such a positive reaction. And it makes sense why it does, but it's just like, man, the short-sided nature in the markets is palpable, for sure. So I think this is responsible for a lot of it. I think the margins holding up is a nice sign to even if it was a little bit below, and all this consensus, I don't think it was so low that, you know, anyone was like terribly surprised by it or put off by where the margins are at. If Tesla can kind of keep these...
但基本上他们的意思是,他们只是想做事情快一点,资金轻一点,而不是全力以赴,可能需要更长时间,但最终可能更有效率一些。但是,可能的缺点是可能会有一个很长一段时间的很慢的增长,市场从来不喜欢这种情况。所以我觉得这让我有点惊讶,市场对此的正面反应如此强烈。这是有道理的,但我只是觉得,在市场上这种短视的本质是明显的。所以我认为这是其中很多原因之一。我认为保持利润率是一个好迹象,即使它略低一些,所有这些一致预期,我不认为利润率低到让任何人感到非常惊讶或对其感到厌恶。如果特斯拉能够保持这种……

You know, they still did what? $3.7 billion in gross profit. So that's going to help pay their operating costs. You know, you can see the operating income here of, let's see, I know you can't see it right now, but $1.2 billion of operating income, and that's allowing them to spend, you know, a billion dollars a quarter on AI infrastructure. Now, obviously, cash flow is a little bit low, that's quarter as inventory builds up. But hopefully at some point that reverses and cash flow is positive while they're also making these investments. And of course, I don't, people seem to just forget about this massive advantage that Tesla has with having all these vehicles that are capable of providing this training data. And now all of that training data has become maybe 10 times more valuable in the last six months than it was before because of Tesla's compute capabilities.
你知道吗,他们仍然赚了多少?37亿美元的毛利润。这将有助于支付他们的运营成本。你知道,你可以看到这里的营业收入,让我们看看,我知道你现在看不到,但营业收入为12亿美元,这使他们能够每季度在人工智能基础设施上花费10亿美元。现在,显然现金流有点低,因为库存积累。但希望在某一时刻,这种情况会逆转,现金流也会保持正增长,同时他们也在进行这些投资。当然,我觉得人们似乎忘记了特斯拉拥有的这种巨大优势,即拥有所有这些能够提供训练数据的车辆。现在,由于特斯拉的计算能力,所有这些训练数据在过去六个月里可能比以前更有价值了十倍。

So, like I said, when deliveries came out or I guess the night before deliveries came out, I mean, who really cares if it's 400,000, 400,000, 50,000, 386,000? Like you're moving the needle on operating income very slightly. The only people that care about that is people that are using that as a point of extrapolation, where you're looking at it and you're saying, Oh, operating income is declining. I'm going to continue to model that, you know, and then the future value of the company is way lower because you model that out for like 30 years.
所以,就像我说的,当交付数量公布或者说在交付数量公布之前的那晚,我是指,真的有人在乎是 400,000,400,000,50,000,386,000吗?就像你稍微改变了运营收入一样。唯一在意的人是那些将其作为外推点的人,他们看着这些数据说,“哦,运营收入在下降。我会继续模拟这种情况”,然后公司的未来价值因为你模拟了将近 30 年而大大降低。

So one point, whether it goes up or down a little bit, and you extrapolate off of that, it significantly changes how model might look. But that's not the reality of how the world works. And you can look back at all the bull's models from when the, you know, growth was happening very consistently, including my own, right? Like, if you look back at those periods, people are extrapolating off of what's, what's just happened. And as we can see now, that's just not a great way of going about projecting the future. So the extrapolation, which is responsible for most of the valuation at any given point in time for a high growth company like Tesla, or, you know, not so much high growth at the moment, but historically high growth, hopefully future high growth as well. Most of the value, like the fundamental value is in future growth. So anytime you have a data point that changes the trajectory of what that future growth is modeled to be, that's going to significantly move the value. And that's why we see so much volatility in a stock like Tesla, especially when there are times like this, where things with the business don't look as good as they once did. But Tesla's been through periods of time like this before. I mean, there's what Q1 2019, horrible quarter for Tesla. And then a year later, you know, we all know what happened in 2020 and 2021. So anyone that extrapolated based off of Q1 2019, which a lot of the shorts probably did and probably made bets on, certainly left with a lot of egg on their face.
因此,一个数据点,无论是稍微上升还是下降,你都可以根据这个数据点进行推演,这将显著改变模型的展望。但这并不是世界运作的现实。你可以回顾所有在增长非常一致时期制定的模型,包括我的模型,对吧?如果你回顾那些时期,人们都是根据刚刚发生的事情进行推演。正如我们现在所看到的,这并不是一种预测未来的好方法。因此,推演占据任何特定时间点高增长公司像特斯拉这样的估值的大部分。大多数价值,比如基本价值都在未来增长中。因此,任何数据点一旦改变未来增长预期的轨迹,都将显著影响价值。这就是为什么我们看到像特斯拉这样的股票如此波动,尤其是在类似现在这样的时期,企业的业务状况看起来并不像过去那样好。但是特斯拉之前也经历过这样的时期。比如2019年第一季度,是特斯拉的惨淡季度。然后一年后,我们大家都知道发生了什么在2020年和2021年。因此,任何根据2019年第一季度进行推演的人,很可能是一些空头头寸,最终都会感到非常尴尬。

So ultimately, what I'm saying here is that one quarter, even though it feels like it moves things around a lot, it just, it's so, I don't want to say it's like not important, but it's just not that important to where things end up long term, just like Q1 2019 wasn't really too important on what Tesla did in 2022. Q1 2024, these financial results aren't going to be that terribly important on what Tesla is doing in 2026, 2027. You know, think about, we just had this 10x and training compute capacity. If that, you know, probably 10x is again in the next couple of years, and reading way more data, and the data is probably higher quality because there are fewer edge cases, there's a lot of good things beating on itself here. And if that ever clicks, like I know everyone is so skeptical of it, but if Tesla actually does figure this out, man, sentiment can change quickly, the business fundamentals can change very quickly too. And no one's going to be talking about like, oh, Q1 2024, the operating margin fell by a couple percent quarter over quarter, like, if anyone can tell me what the operating margins were in Q4 2019 versus Q1, or yeah, Q4 2018 versus Q1 2019, and why that matters today, like, like, go ahead, but it just doesn't.
所以最终,我的意思是,尽管一个季度感觉好像会对事情产生很大影响,但实际上,它并不那么重要,特别是从长期来看,就像2019年第一季度对特斯拉在2022年做了什么并不那么重要一样。2024年第一季度的财务结果也并不会对特斯拉在2026年、2027年做了什么有太大影响。你知道,想想我们刚刚进行了10倍的训练计算能力。如果再过几年可能再次增加10倍,读取更多数据,而且数据质量可能更高,因为边缘案例更少,很多好东西都在积极影响着。如果这个环节真正契合了,我知道每个人都对此持怀疑态度,但如果特斯拉真的弄清楚了这一点,情绪可以很快发生变化,业务基本面也可以很快改变。没有人会谈论像“哦,2024年第一季度,营运利润率季度环比下降了几个百分点”这样的事情。如果有人能告诉我2019年第四季度与2019年第一季度的营运利润率是多少,以及为什么这很重要,那就继续吧,但实际上并不是这样。

So hopefully that helps. It's not to diminish anything, you know, the importance of how the business is managed day to day, but I just want people to, you know, again, keep that long term mindset, keep that perspective because that's what's most important. And it's also just so frustrating with the Elon conversation situation, because, you know, the only reason I think a lot of people are negative against it is because of, you know, the current stock price and the business fundamentals looking not as strong as they were, but there's still a lot of pieces within Tesla to be excited about. And I'm still excited about it. People ask me all the time, you know, did you sell Tesla after you left Tesla daily or whatever? I haven't done anything, guys, like, I was completely unrelated to feeling as on on Tesla or anything like that, other than what I mentioned in the last episode with just other people covering it and all that sort of stuff. But yeah, I'm still excited about the company. They're doing really exciting things. So 400,000 deliveries, 500,000 deliveries, 350,000 deliveries. All that matters is that they're paving the path for the next generation of growth. And that's what they're doing. And that's what Tesla is focused on as they should be. So I think there's a lot to be excited about. I think Tesla is on the right path. I think we all think that things are going to go electric and autonomous. And I, as I've always believed, I continue to believe Tesla's leading in those areas. So I don't really care too much about QQ1. If that makes sense.
希望这能有所帮助。我并不是要贬低任何事情,你知道,业务日常管理的重要性,但我只是希望大家能够保持长远的思维,保持远见,因为那才是最重要的。此外,埃隆的话题让人感到沮丧,因为我认为很多人对它持负面态度的唯一原因是当前股价和业务基本面看起来不像以前那么强劲,但在特斯拉内部仍然有很多令人兴奋的部分。我依然对此充满期待。人们经常问我,你离开特斯拉日报后是否卖掉了特斯拉?我没有做任何事情,伙计们,和我对特斯拉的感觉毫无关联,除了我在上一集中提到的其他人涉及的情况等等。但是我依然对该公司感到兴奋。他们正在做一些非常令人兴奋的事情。无论是40万辆交付、50万辆交付还是35万辆交付,重要的是他们正在为下一代增长铺平道路。这就是他们正在做的事情,这也是特斯拉应该关注的。所以我觉得有很多事情令人兴奋。我认为特斯拉正在走在正确的道路上。我认为我们都认为事物会向电动和自动驾驶发展。我一直相信,我继续相信特斯拉在这些领域领先。所以我对第一季度不太在乎。如果这样说能理解的话。

All right, bit of a rant there, but let me look at some of these, some of these super chats again, I appreciate. See where we left off. I'll try to get to these. I probably only have about five minutes because I got to get my earnings call set up, set up. So again, not doing this every day. It takes a little bit more time. When do you think FSD will be ready for cyber truck owners? It's already four months. I don't know. I mean, I have no insight on that. I wish I did. But Pedro says, please come back. I'll try to be around guys. Like, I just don't have time. I don't have time. I know. But I'll be back for earnings at least. So FSD 12.3.4. So I just got 12.3.5. I have not driven it yet. But 12.3.4. All the 12.3s, you know, all the version 12 versions that I've driven huge step forward in Chicago for me.
好的,我有点唠叨了,但让我再看看这些超级聊天,我很感激。看看我们离开的地方。 我会尽快回复这些。 我可能只有大约五分钟,因为我得准备我的收入电话。所以再次,不是每天都这样做。这需要更多时间。 你觉得FSD何时会准备好供狂热卡车车主使用?已经四个月了。我不知道。我对此一无所知。我真希望我知道。但Pedro说,请回来。我会尽量和大家在一起。只是我没有时间。我没有时间。我知道。但至少我会回来参加收入会。所以FSD 12.3.4。我刚刚收到12.3.5。我还没有试驾过。但12.3.4。所有12.3版本,你知道,我驾驶都在芝加哥给我带来了巨大的进步。

How is self-driving pizza delivery program coming? I don't know why that's particularly questioned towards me. But obviously we saw Tesla talk about the app. So I'm sure they could incorporate things like that. Warbird, thank you. The team, thank you. Bernard, thank you. Sonny, thank you. Tesla Cordoli is back. Can we make a test the weekly or even monthly? I definitely can't do weekly. I, you know, I have aspirations of doing it more frequently than Cordoli, but that's that's what I can commit to for the moment. Eric, thank you. Appreciate that.
自动驾驶披萨送餐计划进展如何?我不知道为什么这个问题特别针对我。但显然我们看到了特斯拉谈论这个应用程序。所以我相信他们可以整合类似的功能。Warbird,谢谢你。团队,谢谢你们。伯纳德,谢谢。索尼,谢谢。特斯拉科多利回来了。我们能每周或甚至每月进行测试吗?我肯定不能每周做。我希望可以比科多利更频繁地进行测试,但目前我只能承诺这个频率。埃里克,谢谢。感谢你。

Heisenberg, thank you. John, appreciate that again. A lot of people expected to have lost the call as everything, not the number. Yep, completely agree. Lots of other stuff in there other than just the number. Carlton, welcome back. And if I felt like I only care about the number when we first opened it up, it's more just sometimes I feel like the street only cares about the number. So I'm curious what the number is to see what the streets reacting to. And then I go through and make my own assessment, obviously, but it's just kind of interesting to see what the reactions are. Jordan, hope you come back and do Tesla weekly or monthly on some platform or as retail investors subscribe and support more. Thank you. Appreciate the sentiment. Like I said, I'll do my best to be around when when important stuff is going on. Alex, Cachule, Blake, thank you. Fortiwa, thank you. Solomon, thank you. Rex, good to see you. Thank you. Appreciate it. Tom asked about Osborne effect. So presumably relating to this this update here. I don't know. Maybe a bit of that. It's a fair question. And I do kind of wonder about how much we may be seeing with that with the Model Y with, you know, highland update for Model 3. I think a lot of people are probably expecting at some point a similar update to Model Y and maybe people would hold off until then and maybe people wait and see what interest rates are like at that time and etc, etc.
海森堡,谢谢你。约翰,再次感谢。许多人预计会失去电话,一切都不是数字。是的,完全同意。除了数字之外,还有很多其他东西。卡尔顿,欢迎回来。如果我觉得当我们第一次开始时只关心数字,有时我觉得大街只关心数字。所以我很好奇数字是什么,看看大街的反应。然后我会自己评估,显然,但是看到反应真的挺有趣的。乔丹,希望你回来并在某个平台上每周或每月做特斯拉的报道,作为零售投资者订阅并支持更多。谢谢。感激你的感受。就像我说的,我会尽力在重要的事情发生时留在这里。亚历克斯,卡特彻尔,布莱克,谢谢。福地瓦,谢谢。所罗门,谢谢。雷克斯,很高兴见到你。谢谢。汤姆问了奥斯本效应的事情。所以可能与这次更新有关。我不知道。也许有点这样。这是一个公正的问题。我确实有点担心关于我们是否可能在Model Y上看到这种情况,高地更新3型的汽车。我想很多人可能期待着某时对Model Y进行类似的更新,也许人们会等到那时再决定,也许人们等待看看那时利率是什么样的等等。

So yeah, I mean, anytime you make a product announcement, you're always running a little bit of a risk of that. But again, like I said, I think even if there is a little bit of Osborneing, ultimately, does that change what the future outcome for Tesla is going to be? I don't think so. Maybe it changes things a little bit in the interim, but we're already seeing a nice reaction in the stock. So I mean, maybe it's maybe it's worth it from that perspective. I don't know. No update on insurance since Zach left. I always think it has huge potential. Yeah, we do seem to hit a bit of a roadblock there in insurance just with state rollouts. Maybe we'll get an update at some point, but I know it's been a bit Adrew, thank you.
所以,我是说,无论何时进行产品发布,总会有一定的风险。但就像我说的,即使有一点Osborne效应,最终这会改变特斯拉的未来结果吗?我觉得不会。也许在中间有些微的改变,但我们已经看到股票的良好反应。所以,从这个角度来说,也许这是值得的。至于保险方面的更新,自Zach离职后就没有消息了。我一直认为它有着巨大的潜力。是的,我们在保险方面似乎遇到了一些障碍,主要是州级推出的问题。也许我们会在某个时候获得更新,但我知道目前情况有点停滞不前。感谢您的提醒。

Paragraph 1: Reuters report costs a lot of fear at the next gen car was off the table that no relieve that fear. Yep, I agree. I agree. I think I think people are seeing that, hey, there are other products here that aren't necessarily just robots axes, especially since it specifically calls that out as something that will probably happen later. So that's a really great point that I probably should have, you know, specifically mentioned. So a good call out there. Hollywood, thank you. Martin, thank you. Turk, Turkot, McCom. Thank you. Lyle, thank you. 524, not 542. You're gonna have to give me more context on that. I typed, what is that? SBC? That's probably what it is. All right, I'll correct that. 524 for SBC, I'm guessing. Thank you, Lyle.
路透社的报道引起了人们对下一代汽车的担忧,认为可能被搁置,没有消除这种恐惧。是的,我同意。我觉得人们正在看到,嘿,这里还有其他产品,并不一定只有机器人斧头,尤其是因为它明确指出这可能会在以后发生。这是一个非常好的观点,我应该专门提到的。好的点名,好莱坞,谢谢。马丁,谢谢。特克特,谢谢。莱尔,谢谢。不是542,而是524。你需要给我更多上下文。我输入的是什么?SBC?可能是这样。好吧,我会更正。我猜是SBC的524。谢谢你,莱尔。

Paragraph 2: Elon, let's see, Pedro, Elon is slash will be building products that directly compete with Tesla's AI and robotics started with Groc. I mean, I don't know if you would view Groc as a direct competitor at the moment. I mean, maybe when they incorporated into Tesla vehicles, there's more of an argument for that, but I don't think there's any argument for how it's being used right now with with X that that should be something that would be within Tesla. That would be kind of a weird setup. I think there's some validity to the separation with X AI and certainly what they've done so far, I don't think really would make much sense within Tesla.
埃隆,让我们看看,佩德罗,埃隆正在/将要建造与特斯拉的人工智能和机器人技术直接竞争的产品,始于Groc。我的意思是,我不知道你是否目前会将Groc视为直接竞争对手。也许当它融入特斯拉车辆时,会更有争议性,但我认为目前它的使用方式与X公司没有任何争议,这些都应该属于特斯拉。那将是一种奇怪的设置。我认为在X人工智能与他们到目前为止所做的事情之间存在一些有效分离,我认为真的不在特斯拉内部建立太多意义。

Paragraph 3: And if that's the case, then with X AI, because they can do things that are maybe a little bit less logical to include within a Tesla umbrella, hopefully those things can then sort of benefit and grow on their own. And then the leverage that that growth creates, Tesla can use that within their business without having to make those investments and expenditures themselves. There's also the talent recruiting issue that Elon has mentioned before on a space. Sometimes people just prefer to go to a company that's maybe a little bit earlier stage than a company like Tesla, even if there are some unique characteristics with Tesla and how they're organized. But there's a variety of reasons that Elon has talked about that we've talked about.
那么,有了X人工智能,因为它们可以做一些在特斯拉旗下可能有点不太合乎逻辑的事情,希望这些事情能够自主发展并获益。当此种增长带来的杠杆作用,特斯拉可以在业务中利用这一点,而无需自行进行这些投资和支出。埃隆之前提到过的人才招聘问题,在某些情况下,人们更愿意选择前期发展阶段可能稍微早于特斯拉的公司,即使特斯拉有一些独特的特点和组织方式。但埃隆谈到了一系列原因,我们也讨论过。

Paragraph 4: So a dragonfly. Thank you. Appreciate that. It means a lot. Megapack gross margin without solar bringing energy gross margin down. I think megapack margin is probably higher than solar. So I'm not sure exactly what the question is there. But I think energy storage is probably higher than energy generation from a margin perspective. Are I sales suffering like EVs this quarter? I haven't looked into it closely enough to look. It's always tough to know too with there's so many layers of things being hidden in the auto business and the financials because of the dealership networks and because of you know discounting and when the actual sale is recognized and all these sort of things, it makes it very difficult to really understand what's happening. And usually there's a lag to the reality because of the structure. So I mean, I would assume it's not just EVs that are being challenged. I also wouldn't be surprised if EVs were being a little bit more significantly challenged, but just have to see.
所以一只蜻蜓。谢谢。非常感激。这意味着很多。光伏没有带来利润率降低能源利润率。我认为Megapack利润率可能会高于光伏。所以我不确定问题是什么。但我认为从利润角度看,能源储存可能比能源发电更高。我们的销售像电动汽车这季度受到了影响吗?我还没有仔细调查过。汽车行业和财务方面有很多层次的信息被隐藏,因为经销商网络、打折和实际销售是何时确认等等因素,这使得真正了解发生的事情非常困难。通常由于结构的原因,实际情况会有延迟。所以我认为挑战并不仅仅是电动汽车面临的。我也不会惊讶如果电动汽车受到更大挑战,但还需要观察。

Paragraph 5: Cliff, good to see you make the analysis look easy. Thank you. I mean, I've been doing this for what six six and a half years. So I appreciate it. All right guys, I got to wrap up here again. The earnings call is going to be on this channel. So the link for that is in the description. And I'll see you guys over there in about 30 minutes. Thank you.
Cliff,很高兴看到你让分析看起来如此简单。谢谢你。我的意思是,我已经做了这件事六六又半年了。所以我很感激。好了伙计们,我得在这里结束了。收益电话将在这个频道上进行。所以链接在描述中。大约30分钟后我会在那里见到你们。谢谢。