Elon to Make Factory Announcement / FSD Rollout / Q1 EV Sales ⚡️
发布时间 2024-04-11 00:07:47 来源
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Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Rohan Patel said there is instead a tendency when it comes to regulators to create artificial blockers to progress either because of media inflated anecdotes or protectionism of the incumbent industry. With this one, what's happening with the UNECE over in Europe comes to mind. Rohan was then asked, do you think Tesla will have the data to prove that FSD is overwhelmingly safer than human drivers, to which Rohan said yes and we will not be shy. It would be awesome to have some public Tesla FSD disengagement data.
欢迎来到Electrified，我是您的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。罗汉·帕特尔表示，监管机构在推进中存在一种倾向，要么是因为媒体夸大的轶事，要么是因为现有行业的保护主义，创造人为障碍。对此，我们可能会想到欧洲的UNECE正在发生什么。然后问罗汉，您认为特斯拉是否有数据证明全自动驾驶比人类驾驶更安全？罗汉表示是的，我们不会矜持。公布一些特斯拉全自动驾驶失效数据将是很棒的。
I think the problem with that is think about your own disengagements. A lot of mine happened because of route choice or something else, a non-critical disengagement. So the way I see it, Tesla would most likely want to differentiate between critical and non-critical disengagements before making any of that information public. Plus, in addition to poor route selection, I'm also often disengaging just to avoid a pothole or something else, not something that necessarily deserves a critical disengagement.
我认为问题在于考虑您自己的失效情况。我遇到的很多情况都是因为选择路线或其他原因，是非关键性的失效。所以我认为，特斯拉很可能会在对关键和非关键失效进行区分之后，才会公开这些信息。此外，除了选择不佳的路线外，我有时也会因为避开坑洼或其他原因而主动暂停，这些并不一定值得被视为关键失效。
It's likely Tesla faces regulatory hurdles in China and in Europe based on how things are going, but in the United States, keep in mind, there are only about 10 states that actually limit autonomous vehicles in some capacity. The rest, whether by default or a specific legislation, do actually allow for AV testing in their borders. Now, there may be some accidents along the way, and that of course could change things, but I don't think the regulatory hurdle at least in the United States is as high as some other people are making it out to be. Globally, though, that's a separate conversation.
特斯拉在中国和欧洲可能会面临监管障碍，但请记住，在美国只有大约10个州实际上在某种程度上限制自动驾驶车辆。其余州，无论是默认规定还是特定立法，实际上都允许在其境内进行自动驾驶测试。现在，可能会有一些事故发生，当然这可能会改变情况，但至少在美国，我认为监管障碍并没有一些人所认为的那么高。然而，从全球范围来看，这是一个不同的谈话。
Last night, FSD version 12.3.4 started rolling out to employees. Fast forward just a few hours and some customers are now getting it as well, the software 24.3.15. As far as we can tell for now, there are no new release notes for this version. As EdgeK said on X, one of the most common reasons for him disengaging with V12 has been wrong lane selection. And to that, I would say I concur. That's one specific thing I'll be looking for with dot four for me with V12.
昨晚，FSD版本12.3.4开始向员工推出。快进几个小时，一些客户现在也开始收到软件24.3.15。就我们目前所知，这个版本并没有新的发行说明。正如EdgeK在X上所说的，他与V12断开联系的最常见原因之一是错误的车道选择。对此，我可以同意。这是我在V12中将要关注的一个具体问题。
There's been more than a handful of times where it's completely missed the lane it needed to be in and thus ultimately missed the turn, not only that, but oftentimes when it goes to change lanes, it'll start to change lanes and get over the line and then it'll go back and then it'll change lanes, which just makes everybody around you uncomfortable. The last thing I want to say, there's some prominent Tesla people out there that have been saying version 12 is a better driver than they are. Now, sure, there are some bad human drivers out there, but the way I see it, I'll be honest, I consider myself to be an S tier driver and there is nothing that version 12 does better than me.
有好几次它完全没有进入正确的车道，因此最终错过了转弯，更糟糕的是，很多时候当它想换道时，它会开始换道，越过线，然后又回去，再换道，这让周围的人都感到不舒服。最后我想说的是，有一些知名的特斯拉人士声称版本12比他们好得多。当然，有些糟糕的人类驾驶员，但我认为，老实说，我认为自己是S级的司机，版本12没有比我更出色的地方。
And let me be clear, I'm obviously not expecting it to be right now, but it's not smoother, it's not more decisive. I just think anybody out there that's saying that is either one, a bad driver or two is being a bit disingenuous. And look at what we have here as I was recording, it turns out the new model three plus is finally getting FSD version dot three dot four. That's most likely the lower hanging fruit down. Now we wait and see about Cybertruck. And the word is legacy model SNX owners are getting this update as well. So if you're out there, just stay patient.
让我说清楚，我显然不指望马上就能实现，但它并不更流畅，也不更果断。我认为任何一个声称如此的人要么是一个糟糕的司机，要么是有些不诚实。当我录制时，正好发现新的Model 3 Plus终于获得了FSD版本3.4。这很可能是较容易实现的目标。现在我们等待Cybertruck，传言称传统的Model S和Model X的车主们也将获得这个更新。所以如果你在等待，请保持耐心。
For a time, there was a job posting at Tesla for an engineer for the optimist program, but it appears as though that posting is gone. And when you search for all jobs in Vancouver, BC, you will see nothing for the optimist bot. So the options are they already hired somebody or the posting was an accident. Reuters said Elon has plans to visit India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the sources said Elon is expected to make an announcement on investment and a factory in the country. Elon and Modi will meet the week of April 22nd in New Delhi and will separately make an announcement about Elon's India plans. Elon will be accompanied by other executives during his visit on X Elon said looking forward to meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India.
有一段时间，特斯拉公布了一个面向乐观者项目的工程师职位，但似乎这个职位已经消失了。当你搜索温哥华的所有工作时，你将看不到乐观者机器人的任何信息。所以选项是他们已经雇用了某人，或者这个职位是一个失误。路透社报道说，埃隆计划访问印度与印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪会面，消息人士称埃隆预计将宣布在印度的投资和工厂计划。埃隆和莫迪将于4月22日在新德里会面，并将分别宣布埃隆的印度计划。埃隆在访问期间将与其他高管一同前往，埃隆表示期待与印度总理莫迪会面。
This back and forth between Elon Tesla and India has now gone on for almost a decade. Things started publicly back in 2015. The import tariffs coming down from upwards of 100% to 15% is certainly a win, but that's still 15% on a $50,000 car. That's the amount of the EV tax credit $7,500. Then you add in EV sales were only about 2% of the market share in India in 2023 and it'll be interesting to see how things unfold.
埃隆·特斯拉和印度之间的这种来回交流已经持续了将近十年。事情最早公开发生在2015年。从100%降到15%的进口关税无疑是一种胜利，但对于一辆价值5万美元的汽车来说，仍然是15%的税率。这就是电动汽车税收抵免7500美元的金额。再加上2023年印度的电动汽车销售市场份额仅约为2%，接下来看事情如何发展将会很有趣。
There's also some reporting again from Reuters saying Tesla may be scouting for a local partner to set up its operations in India. They're saying Tesla is in talks with Reliance Industries for a possible joint venture to build the manufacturing site in the country. Talks are at initial stages and have been ongoing for over a month. The source said the move should not be construed as Reliance Industries entry into the auto space. RIL's objective in the joint venture is to build capacities for EVs in India. The role of the RIL has not been crystallized yet, but it's expected that the Indian conglomerate may play a significant hand in establishing the manufacturing facility and the allied ecosystem for Tesla in India.
路透社再次报道称，特斯拉可能正在考察与当地合作伙伴合作，在印度建立其业务。他们称特斯拉正与信实工业进行交谈，可能共同建立该国的制造工厂。谈判处于初期阶段，已经持续了一个多月。消息人士表示，这一举动不应被解读为信实工业进军汽车领域。信实工业在合资企业中的目标是在印度建立电动汽车的生产能力。目前尚未明确信实工业的角色，但预计这家印度企业集团可能在为特斯拉在印度建立制造设施和相关生态系统方面发挥重要作用。
We had heard Tesla was considering setting up the factory in three different cities. Now the sources are saying Maharashtra could emerge as the preferred location. Tesla plans to use the facility for domestic and export purposes, and hence it may prefer a location suitable for port facilities. Since the joint venture talks with RIL are not exclusive, Tesla may scout for another domestic partner if things don't work out. On the Reliance website, it seems like they are exactly that, just a giant conglomerate.
我们听说特斯拉正在考虑在三个不同的城市建厂。现在消息来源称马哈拉施特拉邦可能成为首选位置。特斯拉计划利用该设施进行国内和出口用途，因此可能偏好适合港口设施的位置。由于与信实工业有限公司的合资谈判并非独家，如果事情不顺利，特斯拉可能会寻找其他国内合作伙伴。在信实工业的网站上，他们似乎就是一个巨大的企业集团。
They're touted as the largest private sector corporation in India. Their main business lines, energy, retail, new energy and new materials, petrochemicals, digital services, media and entertainment. Reliance is one of the largest taxpayers, direct and indirect in India. Their site says they're investing about $7.2 billion to construct world-scale state-of-the-art facilities to manufacture and integrate critical components of the new energy ecosystem. They mention a fully integrated solar manufacturing complex and advanced energy storage systems for integrated cells, battery packs and control manufacturing.
他们被誉为印度最大的私营部门公司。他们的主要业务领域包括能源、零售、新能源和新材料、石化、数字服务、传媒和娱乐。信实是印度最大的纳税人之一，直接和间接纳税。他们的网站称他们正在投资约72亿美元建设世界级的先进设施，用于制造和整合新能源生态系统的关键组件。他们提到将建造一个完全一体化的太阳能制造综合体，以及先进的能源存储系统，用于整合电池、电池组和控制制造。
They're aiming to set up a battery gigafactory by 2026, where they would make LFP cells and they're also working on sodium ion tech. I'll be honest though, scrolling through the website, I'm just thinking to myself, what is this company? It seems like they do literally every single thing under the sun. Just my speculation here, but the way I see it, Tesla doesn't really need anything from a company like this. I would imagine the Indian government would want Reliance to be involved, not only to boost the global awareness of this conglomerate, but to have a front row seat and a hand in everything that Tesla may ultimately do over in India.
他们计划在2026年建立一个电池超级工厂，生产LFP电池，并且也在研究钠离子技术。但说实话，浏览他们的网站时，我不禁在想，这家公司是做什么的？看起来他们几乎什么都干。这只是我的猜测，但我认为特斯拉实际上并不需要这样的公司。我想印度政府会希望信实参与其中，不仅可以增加这个企业集团在全球的知名度，还可以坐在最前排，参与特斯拉最终在印度可能进行的一切活动中。
Perhaps this Reliance company could help Tesla when it comes to expediting certain parts of the supply chain or putting Tesla in touch with the right people in the right places. We've known for years now that India is really pushing for Tesla to start relying on domestic Indian players throughout the supply chain. We know Elon just said India is now the most populous country in the world based on population. India should have EVs just like every other country has electric cars. It's a natural progression to provide Tesla EVs in India.
也许这家信实公司可以帮助特斯拉加速供应链的某些部分，或者让特斯拉与合适的人在合适的地方联系上。我们多年来一直知道印度真的在推动特斯拉开始依赖国内印度供应链上的参与者。我们知道埃隆刚刚说印度基于人口是现在世界上最人口稠密的国家。印度应该像其他国家一样有电动汽车。在印度提供特斯拉电动车辆是一个自然的发展。
Sources are also saying that both Maharashtra and Gujarat have presented attractive land proposals to Tesla for an EV manufacturing site. Plus, discussions with the Telangana government are reportedly underway for a similar arrangement. Fun fact, Telangana is the youngest state in the union of India founded in 2014. If this joint venture were to happen, Elon would be working closely with this gentleman, Mukesh Ambani, the chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries. We may finally get that announcement about Tesla's next Gigafactory sometime this summer, the one that we were waiting for at the end of 2023.
消息来源还表示，马哈拉施特拉邦和古吉拉特邦都向特斯拉提出了有吸引力的土地建议，用于建立电动车生产基地。此外，据报道，特斯拉正与特伦甘纳邦政府就类似的安排进行讨论。有趣的是，特伦甘纳邦是印度联邦中成立于2014年的最年轻的邦。如果这一合资企业真的实现，埃隆将与信实工业集团董事长暨首席执行官穆克什·安巴尼紧密合作。也许我们最终会在今年夏天听到有关特斯拉下一个超级工厂的消息，这是我们在2023年末期待已久的消息。
We're approaching a new milestone in Norway. Some new data has some experts predicting the number of BEVs on Norway's roads will exceed that of petrol vehicles by the end of this year or early 2025. That, by the way, being the year in which Norway will officially end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. This researcher is also predicting that BEVs will overtake the number of diesel cars on Norway's roads in the next 3-4 years. Remember, this is fleet data, not new car sales data, so EVs about to take over petrol and hopefully diesel in the next few years. Thanks to favorable EV incentives that Norway started rolling out back in the 90s, they're really beginning to reap those rewards.
我们正逐渐接近挪威的一个新里程碑。一些新数据让一些专家预测到今年年底或2025年初，挪威道路上的电动汽车数量将超过汽油车。顺便说一句，到那时挪威将正式停止销售新的汽油和柴油车。这位研究人员还预测，电动汽车将在未来3-4年内超过挪威道路上柴油车的数量。请记住，这是车队数据，不是新车销售数据，所以在未来几年内，电动汽车有望取代油汽车，希望也能取代柴油车。多亏了挪威在90年代开始实施的有利电动汽车政策，他们真的开始收获这些成果。
Tesla has now opened its first in-house collision repair center in Australia with two more on the way, the three sites in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. The first one that's now open is in Sydney and they said body repairs performed by our train Tesla team aimed to ensure the functionality, safety and longevity of your Tesla. Up until now in Australia, Tesla has been relying on third-party external Tesla-approved collision centers. More vertical integration for Tesla and just so you know, on Tesla's collision support page, you can actually search for different types of these centers, whether Tesla collision in-house or those third-party Tesla-approved variants.
特斯拉现在在澳大利亚开设了第一家内部碰撞修复中心，另外两家也在筹备中，分别位于布里斯班、墨尔本和悉尼。目前已经开业的第一家位于悉尼，他们表示由我们训练有素的特斯拉团队进行的车身维修旨在确保您的特斯拉的功能性、安全性和寿命。迄今为止，在澳大利亚，特斯拉一直依赖于第三方外部特斯拉认可的碰撞中心。特斯拉的垂直整合更为完善，而且您也可以在特斯拉的碰撞支持页面上搜索不同类型的中心，无论是特斯拉内部碰撞中心还是那些第三方特斯拉认可的变体。
You may recall last year unplugged performance was modifying some model-wise for the South Pasadena Police Department. Fast forward to now and unplugged is turning this into a full fledged business. They'll make electrifying your police fleet easy with full planning support and turn key vehicle upfitting. And for their upfit tactical line, it looks like they'll be using the Cybertruck. If you're interested, there's a lot more information on their website comparing an upfit model-wide to the Ford Police Interceptor utility, which is a hybrid vehicle. I just thought this one was cool because they're doing some other things like fleet planning, management and training for these police departments to help them electrify their fleet.
去年，你也许还记得 unplugged performance 为南帕萨迪纳警察局修改了一些车型。现在，他们已经把这项业务发展成了一个成熟的企业。他们将通过完整的规划支持和一站式车辆升级服务，让警车电动化变得轻松。而对于他们升级的战术车系，看起来他们将采用 Cybertruck。如果你感兴趣，可以在他们的网站上找到更多信息，比如将升级车型与福特警用车辆进行对比，后者是混合动力车辆。我觉得这个很棒，因为他们还为这些警局提供车队规划、管理和培训等服务，以帮助他们电动化自己的车队。
Taking a look at EV sales across the industry for Quarter 1, we have VW in Europe that was down 24% year over year. Zooming out to a global number for VW, their EV sales were down 3% year over year to 136.4.000. Their EV sales in China were up 91% but that was offset by being down 24% in Europe and down 16% in the US. The Mercedes passenger car division sold 47.5.000 EVs in Q1, which was down 8% compared to Q1 2023. Thus for Q1 globally, the Mercedes BEV share was 10.3%. Then we have BMW, who in Quarter 1 hit a nice milestone of 1 million fully electric vehicles sold. The BMW brand excluding many delivered 78.7.000 fully electric vehicles in Quarter 1 up 40.6% from last year.
在第一季度，我们看到了整个汽车行业的电动车销售情况，其中欧洲大众的销量同比下降了24％。放眼全球，大众的电动车销量同比下降了3％，达到136.4万辆。他们在中国的电动车销量增长了91％，但这一增长被欧洲的下降24％和美国的下降16％所抵消。梅赛德斯乘用车部门在第一季度销售了47.5万辆电动车，与2023年第一季度相比下降了8％。因此，全球第一季度梅赛德斯电动汽车销量占比为10.3％。接着是宝马，在第一季度实现了100万辆纯电动汽车销售的里程碑。宝马品牌在第一季度交付了78.7万辆纯电动汽车，同比增长了40.6％。
As I always say with this type of data, just tread lightly with the conclusions you draw because unless you go and do the homework, you don't know what type of base these companies were operating from in Q1 last year. Also, I think it would be fair to say that BMW is focusing on a more volume-based strategy with its EVs than a company like Mercedes who is squarely targeting the luxury market. But I have to say, during a time when so many legacy OEMs are pulling back from EV ambitions, some credit needs to be given to BMW for posting some solid growth. Yes, they were coming from a low base but at least they're going in the right direction.
对于这种类型的数据，我总是建议谨慎得出结论，因为除非你去做研究，否则你不知道这些公司在去年第一季度是从什么样的基础上运营的。此外，我认为公平地说，宝马正在致力于更多基于数量的策略，而梅赛德斯等公司则专注于豪华市场。在如此多传统汽车制造商退出电动车雄心的时候，不得不承认宝马取得了一些可观的增长，这值得肯定。是的，起点比较低，但至少他们正在朝着正确的方向前进。
The 2024 Mustang Mach-E is getting some updates. One of the bigger ones is a new rear motor across the lineup that's supposed to boost the range by 10 to 20 miles. Depending on the battery size, the charging time from 10 to 80% is supposed to be improved by between 6 and 9 minutes. Ford is also getting rid of the GT Performance variant and instead they'll be offering a performance package upgrade that's going to bring the 0-60 time down by 0.5 seconds to 3.3. Ford is opting to keep wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto across the lineup and Ford's Blue Cruise will be on every Mach-E. The Mach-E now starts at $39.9 but the Mach-E does not qualify for any tax credits.
2024年的野马Mach-E正在进行一些更新。其中一个较大的更新是全系列将配备新的后置电机，据说可以提高行驶里程10至20英里。根据电池容量的不同，充电时间从10%到80%预计将缩短6至9分钟。福特还将取消GT Performance版，取而代之的是他们将提供一个性能升级套装，将0-60的时间缩短0.5秒至3.3秒。福特决定在全系列中保留无线Apple CarPlay和Android Auto功能，并且每台Mach-E都将配备福特的Blue Cruise系统。Mach-E现在的起价为39,900美元，但Mach-E不符合任何税收抵免资格。
We have two whistleblowers who used to work at Faraday Future that have now brought some lawsuits against the company saying that they were faking early sales. There were some other allegations as well but given Faraday Future claimed to have sold about 10 vehicles for all of 2023, probably not worth our time as this company is also in shambles and may not be around much longer. According to a bulletin that Ford sent to dealers to 2024, Ford Lightning is getting a price cut by as much as $5,500. The base model entry price remains unchanged at $54.9,000. It's the flash that's down by $5,500. As long as the variant stays under that $80,000 MSRP limit, the F-150 Lightning will qualify for the full credit.
我们有两名曾在法拉第未来工作的告密者，现在他们对该公司提起了一些诉讼，称他们在虚构早期销售情况。还有一些其他指控，但考虑到法拉第未来声称在2023年销售了大约10辆车，也许不值得我们花时间，因为这家公司也陷入了困境，可能不会再存在太久了。根据福特发送给经销商的2024年的公告，福特闪电将降价高达5500美元。基本型号的入门价格仍保持在54.9万美元不变。降价的是闪电部分，降价5500美元。只要该款式始终保持在80000美元的建议零售价上限以下，F-150闪电将有资格获得完整的抵扣。
This is the new 2025 Mercedes EQS sedan. The only real exterior change is the black grille is now getting some chrome accents. They've also bumped up the size of the battery pack from 108 to 118 kilowatt hours but did not talk about the new EPA range. Ford released some new blueprints for their battery factory in Michigan where their licensing technology from CATL originally they were planning on a 2.3 million square foot facility. That's now come down by roughly 50% to 1.2 million square feet. Construction is indeed underway but protesters are still gathering twice weekly downtown and there is litigation pending.
这是全新的2025梅赛德斯EQS轿车。唯一真正的外观变化是黑色的格栅现在带有一些镀铬装饰。他们还将电池组的容量从108升级到118千瓦小时，但没有提及新的EPA续航里程。福特发布了他们密歇根州电池工厂的一些新蓝图，他们正在从CATL获得许可技术，最初计划建设一个230万平方英尺的设施。现在这个规模已经减少了约50％，减至120万平方英尺。建设确实正在进行中，但抗议者仍在市中心每周两次聚集，目前还有诉讼未决。
There was a pretty informative webinar on the Powerwall 3 on this claim solar YouTube channel. The presenter never exactly mentioned who he was but when he talked about Tesla he did use the word hour so could be an employee, could be a third party contractor. Either way on this slide they confirmed what we thought to be true the Powerwall 3 is indeed using lithium-iron phosphate cell chemistry LFP. Lower cost, charging to 100% most likely longer cycle life, all the benefits of LFP in the Powerwall 3. If you're interested in learning more about Powerwall 3 I'll have this video below.
在这个声称是太阳能YouTube频道上有一个相当信息丰富的关于Powerwall 3的网络研讨会。主持人从未确切提到他是谁，但当他谈论特斯拉时使用了“我们”的词，可能是员工，也可能是第三方承包商。在这张幻灯片上，他们确认了我们认为是真实的事实，Powerwall 3确实在使用磷酸铁锂(LFP)电池化学成分。较低的成本，可能更长的循环寿命，Powerwall 3中所有LFP的优势。如果你对了解更多关于Powerwall 3感兴趣，我将在下面放置这个视频。
The inflation data came in a bit hot today with core inflation sitting at 3.8% the expectation was 3.7. What that means is rate cuts are most likely now pushed back, the CME FedWatch tool is now showing us the first likelihood of a rate cut won't come until September. For now inflation is much stickier than the markets would like and the possibility of a rate cut in June is most likely now off the table.
今天的通货膨胀数据有点高，核心通货膨胀率为3.8%，预期为3.7%。这意味着利率可能会被推迟，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的联邦储备委员会监视工具现在显示，第一次可能的降息将推迟至9月。目前通货膨胀比市场预期更为顽固，6月降息的可能性现在很低。
Tesla stock closed the day at $171.76 down 2.89 while the NASDAQ was down 0.84%. It was a slower volume day for Tesla trading about 13 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days.
特斯拉股价收盘报171.76美元，下跌2.89%，而纳斯达克指数下跌0.84%。特斯拉的交易量较低，约1300万股，低于过去30天的平均交易量。
Hope you guys have a wonderful day, please like the video if you did, you can find me on X-links below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
希望你们有一个美好的一天，请喜欢视频，如果你喜欢的话，你可以在下面找到我的X链接，非常感谢所有支持我的Patreon的人。