Karpathy on Elon & Tesla / FSD Rollout Moving Fast / Mexico Needs Help ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Just FYI, there will be no video from me this Friday, the 29th for Good Friday, so tomorrow, Thursday will be my last episode for this week. At least for now, for Model S and X owners when it comes to the new Auto Park feature, it looks like you're going to select which spot you want using the right scroll wheel. I know many users would still prefer the FSD visualizations move over to the main screen so you can tilt and pan and do all of that, but not having to take your hand off the wheel to choose your spot is not a bad alternative.

欢迎来到Electrified，我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯。顺便说一句，本周五，即29日是耶稣受难日，所以明天，也就是周四将是本周我最后一期的节目。至少目前来看，对于Model S和X车主来说，关于新的自动停车功能，似乎您将使用右滚轮来选择您想要的停车位。我知道许多用户仍然希望全自动驾驶的可视化功能能过渡到主屏幕上，这样您就可以倾斜和平移，但是无需摘掉手去选择停车位也不是一个坏的选择。

It's been confirmed, FSD version 12.3.2 is now rolling out to United States customers on a 2024 branch, specifically .3.5. For those of us on a 2024.2 branch, hopefully over the next two weeks, we also make the jump. The Canadians are getting 12.3.1 on a 2023 branch. Yesterday we talked about this user with 2024.3.5, and today, Tesla Scope is saying there's already at least one vehicle on 2024.3.6. That's on a hardware 4 vehicle in Virginia. As it turns out, this new .6 branch actually includes FSD 12.3.2.1, and this is for newly delivered vehicles.

已经确认，FSD 12.3.2版本现在正在推出给美国客户，特别是在2024年的分支上，具体是.3.5。对于我们这些在2024.2分支上的人，希望在接下来的两周内也能升级。加拿大人正在2023分支上得到12.3.1版本。昨天我们讨论了这位使用2024.3.5版本的用户，而今天，特斯拉Scope表示已经有至少一辆车在2024.3.6版本上运行。这是一辆装有硬件4的车辆在维吉尼亚州。事实证明，这个新的.6分支实际上包括了FSD 12.3.2.1版本，这是为新交付的车辆准备的。

Look at what we have as I was recording from Matt, he said that that FSD version 12.3.2.1 is now rolling out to his Model Y, this is not a new delivery in North America coming from a 2024.2.7 branch. I will now be checking for updates basically hourly. It sounds like vehicles with ultrasonic sensors will get auto park back with the 2024 branch update sometime in early April. Here's an example where I think Tesla could have handled this rollout better. As it stands now, you have paying customers that have been waiting months if not years for a version 12, yet brand new customers that haven't paid for the software are getting it on their cars, while people that have paid and are waiting still don't have it. And please do...

看看我们所拥有的内容，当我记录马特时，他说FSD版本12.3.2.1现在正在推出到他的Model Y车上，这不是来自2024.2.7分支的北美新交付。我现在会每小时基本检查更新。听起来，带有超声波传感器的车辆将在4月初通过2024分支更新获得自动停车功能。这是一个我认为特斯拉本可以更好处理的例子。目前，你有已经等待了几个月甚至几年版本12的付费客户，然而一些还没付费的全新客户却能在他们的车上得到，而那些已经付费并且正在等待的人仍然没有。而且请…

not at all think I'm complaining for me, we just got our car last month, I'm happy to wait, I'm really not in a rush, although of course it'd be nice to have it, but for all the people stuck on V11 that have paid and have been in the program for years, it's just not ideal. Things are definitely moving quickly in FSD land right now, and there's been some new emergent behavior on more than one occasion. Even Elon said, cool. I've never experienced that before. Commenting on that move, a choke said, pulling these off requires extremely accurate prediction in space and time. But for some reason it looks like version 12 is still curb hungry.

我一点也不认为我在抱怨，我们上个月刚买了车，我很乐意等待，我真的不急，当然拥有它会很好，但对于那些一直在V11版本上卡住的付费用户来说，这并不理想。目前FSD领域的变化确实很快，已经出现了一些新的突发行为。甚至埃隆都说，很酷。我以前从未经历过这种情况。评论这一举动，一个观察者说，要达到这种效果需要极其准确的时空预测。但由于某种原因，看起来版本12仍然对路缘很感兴趣。

To everybody out there that's been saying there's no way Tesla solves FSD without LIDAR, without radar, without ultrasonic sensors, I bet they're not feeling as confident in their predictions right now. I know we're not home yet, but the path to get there is much clearer now in my opinion than it's ever been before. I mean who would've thought that Elon and Tesla's AI team might actually know a little bit more than the general public and Wall Street analysts. There's another job posting on the Tesla careers page for a Linux engineer, but the description is pretty interesting.

对所有一直声称特斯拉没有激光雷达、雷达、超声波传感器就无法解决FSD问题的人，我敢打赌他们现在对自己的预测不再那么有信心了。我知道我们还没有成功，但在我看来，现在通往成功的道路比以往任何时候都更加清晰。我是说，谁能想到埃隆和特斯拉的人工智能团队实际上可能比普通公众和华尔街分析师更了解一些。特斯拉职业页面上又有一个Linux工程师的招聘信息，不过描述相当有趣。

This role will define the hardware and software interactions for our next generation of fully autonomous car platform, humanoid robot, and the expanding AI inference use cases. They also mention mass production of the next generation AI chip. As always, I hesitate to read too far into things, but we've heard Tesla talk about the next gen platform many times in the past, this time they're calling it fully autonomous. We know Tesla's feeling very confident about version 12, so how much of that confidence could spill over into how they're designing this next gen platform.

这一角色将为我们下一代完全自主汽车平台、仿人机器人以及不断扩大的AI推理用例定义硬件和软件交互。他们还提到了下一代AI芯片的大规模生产。一如既往，我不敢过于深究，但我们以前听到特斯拉多次谈论下一代平台，这次他们称其为完全自主。我们知道特斯拉对第12版非常有信心，那么这种信心会如何影响他们设计这一下一代平台呢？

As someone who actually really enjoys manual driving, I selfishly hope that Tesla includes steering wheels and pedals on this next gen platform, but time will tell. Monroe Live is absolutely going to milk the Cybertruck for as many videos as they can, as they should, not complaining, but it's always fun to see their engineers genuinely impressed by Tesla. This is pretty good from an assembly standpoint. Maybe we have to pull back some cables or something, but this is really, really well designed, and I give Tesla a lot of credit. This is magnificent.

作为一个真正热爱手动驾驶的人，我自私地希望特斯拉在下一代平台上包括方向盘和踏板，但时间会告诉我们。蒙罗现场绝对会不遗余力地利用Cybertruck制作尽可能多的视频，他们应该这样做，我不抱怨，但看到他们的工程师对特斯拉真正赞叹感到很有趣。从装配的角度来看，这非常不错。也许我们需要拉回一些电缆之类的东西，但这设计得非常好，我给特斯拉很高的评价。这太棒了。

This is a great, great design, and how much easier it is to do this type of a design versus anything else that anybody's got. Yeah, looks like it's a pretty natural progression from what we saw with the 4680 Model Y. We've got a lot of similar characteristics here. We've got a lot of the HVAC ducting carried here, seat brackets, seats, and yeah, to Sandy's point, this opens up a lot of opportunity for assembly efficiency and obviously getting the pack out and getting it in. It's quite...

这是一个非常出色的设计，相比其他设计，做这种类型的设计要容易得多。看起来是一个很自然的进化，与我们在4680 Model Y中所看到的类似。我们在这里看到了很多相似的特征。我们在这里看到了很多暖通空调通风管道、座椅支架、座椅等等。是的，正如Sandy所说，这为装配效率提供了很多机会，显然也更容易取出电池组并将其安装进去。情况相当……

a game-changer relative to how we see a lot of these other packs installed. Yeah, from a structure point, this is pretty amazing. With just being able to bolt this up and in place, it's definitely innovative. You got the three bolts up here as you see, the ones on the long, along the side. The couple that you have in the back, these are the three in the front. The couple in the back, and this is your whole floor and essentially your whole structure for the center section of the vehicle. It's definitely, definitely innovative. We can't forget, this is version one for the Cybertruck. So off to a great start and Tesla will as always continually improve the product over time. I know many of us are looking forward to watching the Cybertruck go up this S-curve for production. We have Joe Tettmyer saying Cybertruck production might be at 900 to 1000 units for a weekly rate. I'm going to be that guy pouring cold water on this. Personally, I think best case scenario we're at between 4 to 500 per week. I'd also remind us all, just last week Tesla announced they're only making 1000 car sets or 4680 battery packs per week. So if Tesla was actually producing 1000 Cybertrucks per week, that would not be a great thing. Given that Tesla executives have said they want to keep the 4680 car set production ahead of Cybertruck production, from that standpoint, this would actually be a negative thing. In my opinion right now, for maybe 500 units per week at best.

相对于我们看到的许多其他安装包，这是一个改变游戏规则的产品。是的，从结构的角度来看，这确实很神奇。只需将其螺栓安装在位，这绝对是创新的。正如你看到的，这里有三个螺栓，沿着侧边。在后面，有一对，这是三个在前面。在后面，这就是整个地板和车辆中心部分的整个结构。这绝对，绝对是创新的。我们不能忘记，这是Cybertruck的第一个版本。因此，开始得非常顺利，特斯拉将像往常一样持续改进产品。我知道我们许多人都期待着看到Cybertruck投入生产。Joe Tettmyer说，Cybertruck的产量可能达到每周900至1000辆。我要说的是，我认为最好的情况是每周在4至500辆之间。我还要提醒大家，就在上周，特斯拉宣布他们每周只生产1000套汽车或4680电池组。因此，如果特斯拉实际上每周生产1000辆Cybertruck，那将不是一件好事。鉴于特斯拉高管表示他们希望保持4680汽车组件的生产领先于Cybertruck的生产，从这一点来看，这实际上会是一件负面的事情。在我看来，现在最多每周可能500辆。

From April 4th to the 7th, Tesla will be at Poland's largest auto show for the first time. They said the S3X and Y will be there, no mention of the Cybertruck. What we have here is Mexico trying to require companies to have multiple different charge port types at their charging locations. Tesla and the US government have raised objections to those rules. When you hear CRE, that's just the Mexican regulator. They are intending for EV charging stations to have the capacity to operate at least two types of chargers. In response, Tesla said requiring that a station offer different types of chargers adds technical complexity, creates additional entry barriers, increases the cost of the stations, and basically said it's a reason for companies not to want to invest in the region, affecting the consumer experience. Rohan Patel also chimed in saying Tesla charging has invested heavily in a cross country charging network in Mexico, enabling travel throughout the country and North America. Tesla's top priority in Mexico is the EV driver experience, having five different connector standards in Mexico where an operator just has to pick two of the five, does not accelerate deployment and provide a good customer experience. Some of the connector types are being phased out, like CCS1 and Chathamo, or would inhibit cross border travel with the US. We want to make sure Mexico has an accessible network that meets all vehicle needs.

从4月4日到7日，特斯拉将首次参加波兰最大的汽车展。他们表示S3X和Y将出席，没有提到Cybertruck。现在墨西哥要求公司在充电站设有多种不同的充电接口类型。特斯拉和美国政府对这些规定提出了异议。当您听到CRE时，那就是墨西哥的监管机构。他们打算让电动汽车充电站具备至少两种类型的充电器。作为回应，特斯拉表示要求一个站点提供不同类型的充电器会增加技术复杂性，创造额外的进入障碍，增加站点的成本，并基本上说这是公司不愿在该地区投资的原因，影响消费者体验。Rohan Patel还表示，特斯拉充电在墨西哥投入了大量资金建设跨国充电网络，使得在整个国家和北美洲都能进行旅行。特斯拉在墨西哥的首要任务是提升电动汽车驾驶者的体验，墨西哥有五种不同的连接标准，运营商只需选择其中两种，将不会加速部署并提供良好的客户体验。一些连接器类型正在逐步淘汰，如CCS1和Chathamo，或将阻碍与美国的跨境旅行。我们希望确保墨西哥拥有一个满足所有车辆需求的可访问网络。

This article is from late last year, but they said Mexico's state owned power utility CFE has received multiple requests from Tesla to install charging station hubs in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterey. However, the energy regulator, CRE, has not issued to guidelines and prices for charging services yet, preventing it from planning a strategy or even shaking hands on new deals. The power utility CFE is currently the only service provider that can charge for electricity in Mexico, but they don't have a metric for collecting payment for EV charging, it cannot yet partner with private sector companies. As of late last year, the federal government in Mexico had not publicly announced a strategy to deploy EV charging infrastructure. Hopefully, Tesla has enough sway here to encourage Mexico to adopt the North American charging standard.

这篇文章是去年年底的，但据说特斯拉已经向墨西哥的国有电力公司CFE提出了多个要求，希望在墨西哥城、瓜达拉哈拉和蒙特雷安装充电站枢纽。然而，能源监管机构CRE尚未发布充电服务的准则和价格，这使得CFE无法制定任何策略，甚至无法与新交易伙伴握手。CFE目前是墨西哥唯一可以为电力收费的服务提供商，但他们尚未制定用于收取电动汽车充电费用的衡量标准，因此还不能与私营部门合作。截至去年年底，墨西哥联邦政府尚未公开宣布部署电动汽车充电基础设施的战略。希望特斯拉在这里有足够的影响力，鼓励墨西哥采用北美充电标准。

Morgan Stanley put out a new Tesla stock note and Jonas is either going to look like a genius or a total eclueless. For Q1, he's predicting Tesla's operating margin to be 1.7%. Then for fiscal year 2024, he's expecting it to be 3.9%. Going back all the way through 2020, the lowest Tesla's quarterly operating margin has ever been was over 5%. And for all of 2023, it was right between 8% and 10%. So for Tesla to go from 8% down to 1.7% quarter over quarter, that's a massive drop. For Q1, they're also forecasting auto gross margin X credits of 9.4%. Pretty much all of last year, Tesla's hovered right around 18%. The lowest quarterly mark was 16.3%. As we always say, the silver lining for basement level expectations for Tesla financials like this is it makes it much easier to surprise to the upside. Yes, I put this one on the prediction tracker and this is one that we can come back to in the next few weeks.

摩根士丹利发布了一份新的特斯拉股票报告，乔纳斯要么会被视为天才，要么完全不明白。对于第一季度，他预测特斯拉的营运利润率为1.7%。然后对于2024财政年度，他预计为3.9%。回顾自2020年以来，特斯拉季度营运利润率最低也超过5%。而整个2023年，营运利润率一直在8%至10%之间。因此，特斯拉季度营运利润率从8%下降至1.7%，这是一个巨大的下滑。对于第一季度，他们还预测汽车净毛利率（不含信贷）为9.4%。去年大部分时间，特斯拉的净毛利率都在18%左右。最低的季度水平为16.3%。正如我们经常说的，像这样对于特斯拉财务的基准水平预期，使得向上惊喜变得更容易。是的，我把这个预测放在了追踪器上，我们可以在接下来的几周内回顾一下这个预测。

MKBHD was reviewing the VINFAST VF8 and he was talking about the instant torque delay, so when you press the accelerator, there's a moment before the car actually picks up and goes. Effectively mimicking how ICE cars operate, which is a terrible feature in my opinion, that Drew Baglino said another reason for pedal in delay is to avoid a drive line oscillation. At Tesla in 2013, we developed sophisticated active damping controls to enable a butter smooth yet responsive pedal without triggering half shaft resonances or harsh sounding gear meshing and unmeshing as motor torque changes sign from drive to region. All Tesla vehicles incorporate this technology to deliver our signature effortless drive line feel. No at least a few of you out there will enjoy this explanation.

MKBHD正在评测VINFAST VF8，他谈到了瞬时扭矩延迟，所以当你踩油门时，车辆实际上会有一段延迟才会加速前行。这实际上模仿了内燃机汽车的操作方式，这在我看来是一个糟糕的特性，Drew Baglino说油门延迟的另一个原因是为了避免传动系统的振荡。在2013年，特斯拉开发了先进的主动阻尼控制技术，以实现顺畅灵敏的油门踏板控制，同时避免了半轴共振或在电机扭矩由传动到制动时引起的刺耳的齿轮啮合声。所有特斯拉车辆都采用了这项技术，以提供标志性的轻松驾驶体验。我相信至少有一些人会喜欢这个解释。

Tesla Patriots said does braking to stop involve the brakes or is reverse torque applied by the motor? Baglino answered saying the smooth one pedal stops are all accomplished by the motor, handed off to the brakes, imperceptibly to save energy once the vehicle is at a full stop. No surprise here as Ray for Tesla who covers the Chinese EV market pretty closely is saying that most of the main Chinese competitors are watching Tesla closely when it comes to FSD and they're now working on their own end to end models. First improved in February on X, X-Pang actually posted the top 2 ADAS systems in the world, FSD and their own version of it. I have watched a few videos of X-Pangs XNGP and personally not that impressed. I just thought this one was funny, Rocco on X said never let anyone tell you Tesla's controls are dumb, I tried to turn the volume down on this Chrysler Pacifica van and put it in reverse on the highway. And a gear selector knob that does very much look like a volume control.

特斯拉爱国者表示，制动停车是否涉及刹车，还是由电机施加反向扭矩？Baglino回答说，平稳的单踏板停车全部由电机完成，然后传递给刹车，在车辆完全停稳后，对能源进行几乎不可察觉的节省。毫不奇怪，专注于中国电动汽车市场的雷克（Ray for Tesla）表示，大多数中国主要竞争对手在涉及全自动驾驶（FSD）时都在密切关注特斯拉，并且他们现在正在努力研发自己的全方位模型。2月首次改进的X-X庞实际上发布了世界上排名前两位的ADAS系统，FSD及其自己的版本。我看过一些X庞的XNGP视频，个人不太印象深刻。我觉得这个很有趣，X的罗科说，绝不要让任何人告诉你特斯拉的控制是愚蠢的，我试图在这辆克莱斯勒太平洋厦的音量下降并在高速公路上倒车。还有一个挡位选择旋钮看起来确实很像一个音量控制。

Andrei Carpathi just spoke at a Sequoia event and he had some interesting words on Elon's management style. I would say definitely Elon runs this company is an extremely unique style. I don't actually think that people appreciate how unique it is. You sort of like even read about it and what you don't understand it. It's like even hard to describe but I don't even know where to start. But it's like a very unique different thing. I like to say that he runs the biggest startups. I don't even know basically how to describe it. It almost feels like it's a longer sort of thing that I have to think through. But, well, number one is like, so he likes very small, strong, highly technical teams. So that's number one. So I would say at companies by default, they sort of like the teams grow and they get large. Elon was always like a force against growth.

安德烈·卡帕蒂刚刚在一次 Sequoia 活动中发表讲话，他对埃隆的管理风格有一些有趣的看法。我想说，埃隆绝对以一种极为独特的方式管理这家公司。实际上，我认为人们并没有真正欣赏到它有多独特。你甚至读过相关报道，但你仍然无法理解它。很难形容，我甚至不知从何开始。但这是一种非常独特的东西。我想说他经营的是最大的初创企业。我基本上不知道如何描述。几乎感觉是一种更需要深思熟虑的事情。但首先，他喜欢小而强大、高度技术化的团队。这就是首要的。所以我要说，在公司里，团队通常会逐渐扩大变得庞大。埃隆一直都是与扩张对抗的力量。

I would have to work and expend efforts to hire people. I would have to like basically plead to hire people. And the other thing is that big companies usually you want, it's really hard to get rid of low performance. And I think Elon is very friendly to by default getting rid of low performance. So I actually had to fight for people to keep them on the team because he would by default want to remove people. And so that's one thing. So keep a small, strong, highly technical team. No middle management that is kind of like non-technical for sure. So that's number one.

我将不得不努力工作，付出努力来雇佣人才。我基本上会被迫恳求雇用人才。另一件事是，大公司通常你希望的是，很难摆脱低绩效员工。而我认为埃隆默认情况下会比较容易摆脱低绩效员工。所以我实际上必须努力保住某些人才，因为他会默认希望淘汰人才。所以这就是一个方面。所以要保持一个小而强大、高技术团队。没有那种肯定非技术的中层管理。这就是第一点。

Number two is kind of like the vibes of how everything runs and how it feels when he sort of like walks into the office. He wants it to be a vibrant place. People are walking around, they're pacing around, they're working on exciting stuff, they're charting something, they're coding.

第二个点有点像一切如何运转以及当他步入办公室时的感觉。他希望这里是一个充满活力的地方。人们走来走去，他们忙碌着，他们在做一些令人兴奋的事情，他们在绘制计划，他们在编写代码。

He doesn't like stagnation. He doesn't like to look for it to look that way. He doesn't like large meetings. He always encourages people to like leave meetings if they're not being useful. And this is like fully encouraged. And I think this is something that you don't normally see. So I think like vibes is like a second big lever that I think he really instills culturally. Part of that also is like I think a lot of companies, they're like Pamper employees. I think like there's much less of that. It's like the culture of it is you're there to do your best technical work. And there's the intensity and so on.

他不喜欢停滞不前。他不喜欢为了看起来而去寻找。他不喜欢大型会议。他总是鼓励人们如果会议无用就离开。这是完全被鼓励的。我认为这是一种通常不会见到的文化。所以我认为氛围是他真正灌输文化的第二个大杆杆。其中一部分还包括很多公司，他们像是溺爱员工。我认为这种情况要少得多。文化是你在这里是为了做出最好的技术工作。这里有紧张和所获。

And I think maybe the last one that is very unique and very interesting and very strange is just how connected he is to the team. So usually a CEO of a company is like a remote person, five layers up who talks to their VPs, who talk to their reports and directors and eventually you talk to your manager. It's not how your company is right. Normally people would talk, spend like 99% of the time maybe talking to the VPs. He spends maybe 50% of his time and he just wants to talk to the engineers. So if the team is small and strong, then engineers and the code are the source of truth. And so they have the source of truth, not some manager. He wants to talk to them to understand the actual state of things and what should be done to improve it.

我认为也许他最独特、最有趣、最奇怪的地方就是他与团队的联系非常紧密。通常一个公司的CEO会是一个遥远的人物，与他们的副总裁进行交流，副总裁再与主管和董事进行联系，最终再与经理进行交流。这并不是他的公司的运作方式。通常人们可能会花99%的时间与副总裁交流。但他可能花50%的时间，只想与工程师交流。所以如果团队是小而强大的，那么工程师和代码就是真相的源泉。因此，他要与他们交流，了解事物的真实状态，以及应该做些什么来改进。

And also just like his large hammer and his willingness to exercise it within the organization. So maybe if he talks to the engineers and they bring up that, what's blocking you? Okay, I just I don't have a GPU to run my thing. And he's like, okay. And when you don't have satisfying answers, he's like, okay, I want to talk to the person in charge of the GPU cluster. And like someone dials the phone and he's just like, okay, double the cluster right now. Like let's have a meeting tomorrow from now on, sending daily updates on typical cluster is twice the size.

他也像他那把大锤一样，愿意在组织内部行使权力。也许如果他和工程师们交流，他们提出问题，是什么阻碍了你？好吧，我没有GPU来运行我的东西。他会说，好的。当你没有令人满意的答复时，他会说，好的，我想找负责GPU集群的人谈谈。然后有人拿起电话，他瞬间说，好的，现在就把集群加倍。从明天开始，每天更新典型集群的大小加倍。

And then they kind of like push back and they're like, okay, well, we have this procurement set up. We have this timeline and video says that we don't have enough GPS and it will take six months or something. And then you get a rise of an eyebrow. And then he's like, okay, I'm going to talk to Jensen. And then he just kind of like removes bottlenecks. So I think the extent to which he's extremely involved and removes bottlenecks and plies his hammer, I think is also like not appreciated.

然后他们有点反应过来，他们说，好吧，我们有这个采购计划，有这个时间表，视频显示我们没有足够的GPS，可能需要六个月之类的时间。然后他们翘起了眉毛。然后他说，好吧，我会和詹森谈谈。然后他就开始消除瓶颈。我认为他的极高参与度和消除瓶颈的能力，以及他的决断力，其实是被低估了的。

So I think there's like a lot of these kinds of aspects that are very unique, I would say and very interesting. And honestly, like going to a normal company outside of that is is you definitely miss aspects of that. It's like, do you really think Mary Barra is setting up the culture at GM to be similar to that? The answer is no. And this is the type of thing that will play out over years and years.

我觉得有很多这样的方面是非常独特和有趣的。老实说，如果去一个普通公司工作，你一定会错过这些方面。你认为Mary Barra会建立和GM相似的企业文化吗？答案是否定的。这种情况会在未来几年中逐渐显现出来。

I'm sure at least a few of you heard it at the end of that clip. Andre did say he misses parts of Elon's culture. If you're not familiar with Brad Gerstner from Altimeter Capital, he jumps on the all-in pod every now and then. He's just one of those guys that gets it. He just said in the age of AI where Elon is building market leading models, betting on Elon is a no brainer. When everybody else is negative about companies like Tesla, that's where we start getting excited, particularly when they're run by a founder who's as extraordinary a product leader as Elon.

我相信至少你们几个在那段视频的最后听到了。安德烈确实说他错过了埃隆的文化的一部分。如果你不熟悉阿尔蒂米特资本的布拉德·格斯特纳，他会偶尔参加一些讨论节目。他就是那种很有远见的人。他说，在人工智能时代，埃隆正在构建市场领先模型，押注埃隆是一个明智之举。当其他人对特斯拉等公司持消极态度时，我们开始感到兴奋，尤其是当这些公司由像埃隆这样非凡的产品领导者创立时。

On FSD 12, Brad said, when I took a test drive in it, it was kind of a chat GPT moment. Tesla totally scrapped their prior deterministic models and moved to an imitation learning model that really for the first time, unlike Waymo, which is still a deterministic model, feels like a human driving the car. That's the type of thing other people can't easily copy. Elon has 5 million robot cars on the road collecting data that's training this imitation model. That makes it demonstrably better and almost impossible for all the traditional OEMs to replicate.

在FSD 12上，Brad说，当我试驾时，这种感觉有点像GPT聊天时刻。特斯拉彻底抛弃了他们之前的确定性模型，转而采用了一种仿真学习模型，这是第一次，不同于Waymo，后者仍然是一个确定性模型，感觉像是一个人在驾驶汽车。这种东西其他人很难轻易复制。埃隆身边有500万辆机器人汽车在路上收集数据，这些数据训练了这个仿真模型。这使得它表现得更好，并且对于所有传统汽车制造商来说几乎不可能复制。

So this Tesla stock is not for the faint of heart. You have to size it appropriately. You have to be willing to buy more if the stock goes down. Brad also said he recently bought Tesla stock because it has the best product engineer CEO on the planet. Robin Zhang, CEO of CATL also had some comments on solid state batteries. He said, the much hyped technology did not work well enough. It lacked durability and still has safety problems. He said, I watched the development people working on solid state almost every month so I know all the progress and somehow we still have these show stoppers.

这家特斯拉股票不适合胆小的投资者。你必须适当地评估投资规模。如果股价下跌，你必须愿意购买更多股份。布拉德还说他最近购买了特斯拉股票，因为这家公司拥有全球产品工程师CEO。比亚迪公司的张瑞宾也对固态电池发表了一些评论。他表示，这项备受瞩目的技术并不够完善。它缺乏耐用性，仍然存在安全问题。他说，我每个月都会关注固态电池的研发进展，所以我知道所有的进展，但一些障碍依然存在。

There are still safety issues as lithium would react with moisture in the air if a battery broke open during a car accident. So people push on this but I tell them CATL already spent 10 years. He added his group was second to none in the race to make solid state batteries. Rather than solid state, Zhang said his group was targeting sodium ion batteries and condensed matter batteries which use a semi-solid material. With prototypes already in production. The semi-solid material can store about double the energy of conventional lithium ion batteries. In 2023 CATL supplied 37% of the world's EV batteries. CATL also makes 40% of the batteries used for energy storage.

目前还存在安全问题，如果汽车事故中电池开裂，锂便会与空气中的水分发生反应。因此有人在这方面投入力量，但我告诉他们，比亚迪已经投入了10年时间。他补充说，他的团队在研发固态电池方面毫不逊色。张说，与其研究固态电池，他的团队更专注于钠离子电池和使用半固态材料的凝聚物电池。已经有样机处于生产阶段。这种半固态材料可以存储约是传统锂离子电池两倍的能量。到2023年，比亚迪为全球电动汽车电池供应了37%。比亚迪还生产了40%用于储能的电池。

Add one more company to the list trying to break into the battery energy storage market this time around its Remots. They just opened their UK innovation and manufacturing facility where they will build the first units of their sinus stack best platform. It will serve as a hub for technological innovation and will manufacture the first units of the company's 790 kilowatt hours sinus stack best. It's definitely smaller than a megapack. This would be 0.79 megawatt hours. A Tesla megapack is about 4 megawatt hours.

这次，又有一家公司加入了试图打入电池能量存储市场的行列，这次是Remots。他们刚刚在英国建立了创新和制造中心，将在这里制造他们的Sinus Stack Best平台的首批产品。这将成为技术创新的中心，并将生产该公司的首批790千瓦时Sinus Stack Best产品。它的规模肯定比“超级电池组”小。这相当于0.79兆瓦小时。特斯拉的超级电池组大约是4兆瓦小时。

They'll have to prove it but Remots is saying they have industry leading, cycle lifetime, AC round trip efficiency and energy density. They're starting small but they did say their aim is being one of Europe's largest best manufacturers by 2030. Here's a render of what their sinus stacks will look like. This project is under a subsidiary of Remots, Remots Energy. This product will use LFP cells and they're touting this as a software defined product. They plan to begin mass production in 2025 with 300 megawatt hours annual capacity rising to 1 gigawatt hour within one year and targeting 10 gigawatt hours plus at a future unspecified date. Tesla's megafactories are up to 40 gigawatt hours of annual capacity.

他们必须证明这一点，但Remots表示他们在行业中拥有领先的循环寿命、交流往复效率和能量密度。他们从小规模开始，但他们说他们的目标是到2030年成为欧洲最大最好的制造商之一。这是他们的正弦叠加的效果图。这个项目是Remots的子公司Remots Energy进行的。这个产品将使用LFP电池，并且他们将其宣传为一种软件定义的产品。他们计划在2025年开始大规模生产，年产能为300兆瓦时，在一年内增至1吉瓦时，并在未来的某个未指明的日期目标设置为10吉瓦时及以上。特斯拉的超级工厂的年产能高达40吉瓦时。

Simultaneously it sounds like things are finally picking up for battery energy storage across the EU. Today the EU has really been lagging behind the US and China but now they're saying the momentum behind energy storage is becoming increasingly undeniable. An advisory group that was at a storage summit said there's been a fundamental change in the way the technology is viewed by policy makers and regulators particularly at the EU level. There's a growing recognition in the EU that energy storage has to be part of the equation.

同时，听起来欧盟的电池储能终于开始起步了。今天，欧盟在电池储能方面一直落后于美国和中国，但现在他们表示，电池储能背后的动力越来越不可否认。一支出席储能峰会的咨询团体表示，技术在政策制定者和监管机构中的地位发生了根本性变化，特别是在欧盟层面。欧盟越来越认识到电池储能必须成为方程式的一部分。

An analyst at Wood Mackenzie said scale is growing across Europe largely led by EU member states. Germany and Spain are perhaps the most talked about but many others like Italy and Poland are also in the mix. For the first time Germany's government is currently formulating an energy storage strategy. Just an update on the incentive situation also across the EU there are no more EV incentives in Germany. In France subsidies for company buyers have now been ended. On the other side though both Italy and Spain are considering new incentive schemes for 2024. For Germany this will be their first full year without financial aid for EV buyers.

伍德麦肯齐的分析师表示，在欧洲，规模正在快速增长，主要是由欧盟成员国主导。德国和西班牙可能是最受关注的，但其他许多国家如意大利和波兰也在其中。德国政府正在制定一项能源储存战略，这是首次。关于激励政策方面的最新情况是，德国目前已经没有了电动汽车的激励措施。法国已经取消了公司购买者的补贴。不过，意大利和西班牙正在考虑在2024年推出新的激励计划。对于德国来说，这将是他们首次在没有电动汽车买家财政援助的完整一年。

The pricing of the Fisker Ocean has just been cut by up to 39% in an email sent to customers. This will only impact the US market now the Ocean starts as low as $24,900. TechCrunch was also reporting that Fisker temporarily lost track of millions of dollars in customer payments as it scaled up deliveries. This blue Volvo XC90 will be the last vehicle that Volvo makes with a diesel engine. This one is actually going to a museum. Volvo is one of the only OEMs who is sticking to its guns when it comes to EVs. They're still saying they want to be completely EV by 2030.

菲斯克Ocean的定价刚刚在一封寄给客户的电子邮件中削减了高达39%。这只会影响美国市场，现在Ocean的起价已降至24,900美元。TechCrunch也报道称，随着交付规模扩大，菲斯克暂时丢失了数百万美元的客户付款。这辆蓝色的沃尔沃XC90将是沃尔沃最后一款搭载柴油发动机的车型。这辆车实际上将被送往博物馆展出。沃尔沃是少数坚持在电动汽车方面的汽车制造商之一。他们仍然表示希望在2030年之前实现完全电动化。

This Green Lane company which is a joint venture between Daimler Truck North America, next Stara and Black Rock just announced their first commercial EV charging corridor with more than 100 chargers and modern amenities. To start they'll have three main locations out west in Baker, Barstow and Colton. The planet Colton is to have over 60 chargers with speeds up to 400 kilowatts. They did say in the future they'll also deploy multiple passenger car charging stalls as well. They're targeting a spring groundbreaking on the Colton flagship site and they're aiming to open in late 2024. They're really doing it.

这家绿色通道公司是戴姆勒卡车北美、斯塔拉和布莱克洛克三家合资企业，他们刚刚宣布了他们的第一个商业电动汽车充电走廊，拥有100多个充电桩和现代化设施。首次启动，他们将在西部的贝克、巴斯托和科尔顿等三个主要地点设立充电站。科尔顿站将拥有超过60个充电桩，速度可达400千瓦。他们表示未来还将部署多个乘用车充电桩。他们计划在科尔顿旗舰站点展开春季动工，并计划于2024年底开业。他们正在认真实施。

The Indiana Department of Transportation has teamed up with Purdue University to build this highway that's going to charge EVs as they drive wirelessly. The first segment of the project will cover about a quarter of a mile along US Highway 52. The goal is to expand the research by electrifying a section of an Indiana interstate. Construction is expected to begin this spring and be completed by next summer. When complete the segment of road will be able to charge both heavy duty and passenger EVs as they travel at highway speeds.

印第安纳州交通部门与普渡大学合作建设这条可以在电动汽车行驶时无线充电的高速公路。该项目的第一段将覆盖美国52号公路约四分之一英里的长度。目标是通过为印第安纳州一条高速公路的一段通电来扩大研究范围。预计施工将于今年春季开始，并在明年夏季完成。完成后，这条路段将能够在汽车以高速公路速度行驶时为重型和乘用电动车充电。

Janet Yellen just warned that China is treating the global economy as a dumping ground for its cheaper clean energy products, depressing market prices and squeezing green manufacturing in the US. She said President Biden is committed to doing what we can to protect our industries from unfair competition. If somebody were to come up to you and ask, is China exporting their cheaper goods to other countries unfair competition for those other countries, what would you say?

珍妮特·耶伦刚刚警告说，中国正在将全球经济视为其廉价清洁能源产品的倾销地，压低市场价格，挤压美国的绿色制造业。她表示，拜登总统致力于尽力保护我们的产业免受不公平竞争的影响。如果有人走到你面前问，中国将他们的廉价商品出口到其他国家是否对其他国家构成不公平竞争，你会怎么回答？

Pricing for the Polestar 4 was just announced for the North American market. It's going to start at $54.9,000. At least to start this vehicle will not qualify for IRA credits because it's going to be built in South Korea. It'll be available to order in late April of this year and they are saying you can expect deliveries later in 2024. EPA range up to 300 miles, 0-60 in 3.7 seconds. It'll come with a 94kWh battery pack capable of charging speeds up to 200kW. One day, just said it plans to spend $51 billion over 3 years to bolster its growth in EVs and new mobility business and separately hire 80,000 new employees. More than half of the investment will be allocated for new research and development infrastructure and assembly lines for EVs. A majority of the rest will be slated for research and development in EVs including software-defined vehicles and battery technology.

北美市场刚刚公布了Polestar 4的定价，起价为54,900美元。起初，这款车不符合IRA抵免标准，因为它将在韩国制造。预计这款车将在今年晚些时候开始接受预订，交付时间预计在2024年。EPA续航里程高达300英里，0-60加速时间为3.7秒。配备94kWh电池组，可实现最高充电速度达200kW。One day公司表示计划在未来3年内投资510亿美元，以加强其在电动车和新出行业务领域的增长，并另外招聘8万名新员工。其中，超过一半的投资将用于新的研发基础设施和电动车组装线。其余大部分资金将用于电动车的研发，包括软件定义车辆和电池技术。

$17 billion per year on EVs is no joke but we'll see how efficient they can be with their spending. I know for Q1 deliveries you're looking at you lowered to 420k, right? Yes, you think the streets got conservative enough that next week might actually be alright? Look, it's hard to discern exactly where the whisper is but probably in the low, low 400 range below the 420 and we think that's the over-under. If it's over that, we think the stock goes up and again. What we try to do a little bit is reframe the debate.

每年在电动汽车上花费170亿美元并非闹着玩的，但我们将看他们的花费效率如何。我知道你在看第一季度的交付量已经降至了420,000辆，对吧？是的，你认为市场已经足够保守，所以下周可能会好转吗？看，很难准确判断谣言的真实情况，但可能在“低低”400范围内，低于420，我们认为这是个盈亏平衡点。如果超过这个数，我们认为股价会再次上涨。我们试图做的是稍微改变这场辩论的方向。

It's a little bit of supply in there too. We estimate about 95,000 units if there were full capacity at the Cybertruck, full capacity of the new Model 3 and maybe 10,000 units out of Europe due to some fires at Kiga Berlin. Tesla stock closed the day at $179.83 up 1.22% while the NASDAQ was up 0.5%. It was a lower volume day for Tesla trading about 16 million shares below the average 30 day volume. Hope you guys have a wonderful day, please like the video. If you did, you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

那里也有一点供应。我们估计如果Cybertruck达到全容量，新Model 3也达到全容量，可能会有大约95,000辆车，而欧洲由于柏林的一些火灾可能会有10,000辆车。特斯拉股票收盘价为179.83美元，上涨了1.22%，而纳斯达克指数上涨了0.5%。特斯拉的交易量较低，约为平均30天交易量的一半，约为1600万股。希望大家有一个美好的一天，请喜欢视频。如果你喜欢，你可以在下面找到我。非常感谢我的所有Patreon支持者。