What's Next for the Car Market? | Car Dealership Guy Market Update

I don't think any of us dealers out there are going to have a growth game based upon volume. But efficiency is a whole nother question. I think we can become a lot more efficient to drive that growth and profitability. Our use-core prices slated to rise again. Hybrids are growing in market share and AI chatbots are actually selling cars. A lot is happening in the car market. But the big question, what's going to happen next? Welcome to the Car dealership guide market update, a monthly discussion with automotive industry experts and dealers about where our car market is today and where it may be headed.

我认为我们在场的经销商中没有人会基于销量实现增长。但效率完全是另一个问题。我认为我们可以变得更加高效，推动增长和盈利能力。我们的核心价格预计将再次上涨。混合动力汽车在市场份额上不断增长，AI聊天机器人实际上正在销售汽车。汽车市场发生了很多变化。但重要的问题是，接下来会发生什么？欢迎来到汽车经销商指南市场更新，这是一个与汽车行业专家和经销商每月讨论我们汽车市场今天所处和未来走向的讨论。

Today I'm speaking with Jessica Caldwell, head of Insights at Edmunds and Kevin Fry, e-commerce director of Jeff Weiler Automotive Group. This was a fascinating discussion and I can't wait for you to listen to him. Don't forget to click subscribe so you never miss an episode. What's up everyone? This is Car dealership guide. You're listening to the Car dealership guide podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most transparent insights into the car market. But before we get into the show, the Car dealership guide market update is brought to you by Edmunds. In today's automotive landscape, car buyers invest more time than ever in researching, considering and comparing options. But for dealers, the challenge lies in pinpointing the audience ready to make a purchase. Enter Premier by Edmunds.

今天我正在与Edmunds的Insights主管Jessica Caldwell和Jeff Weiler汽车集团的电子商务总监Kevin Fry进行讨论。这是一次非常有趣的讨论，我迫不及待地想让你们听到他们的看法。别忘了点击订阅，这样你就不会错过任何一集。大家好！这里是汽车经销商指南。您正在收听汽车经销商指南播客，这是我为您提供最透明的汽车市场洞察的努力。但在我们开始节目之前，汽车经销商指南市场更新由Edmunds赞助。在今天的汽车市场中，汽车买家比以往更花更多时间进行研究，考虑和比较各种选项。但对于经销商来说，挑战在于找到准备购买的目标客户群体。这就是Edmunds的Premier所能提供的帮助。

Premier offers dealers a ground-breaking way to connect with in-market car shoppers precisely when, where and how they prefer. With over 20 million monthly visits, Edmunds.com is the go-to destination for buyers seeking market insights, expert advice and budget tools to make informed decisions. These shoppers aren't just informed, they're laser focused on the exact car they want. Now it's your chance to make that connection. Through Edmunds Premier, dealers gain access to this highly coveted audience. Simply list your new and used inventory on Edmunds and watch as qualified in-market traffic flows directly to your vehicle detail pages on your website. Don't miss out on this opportunity to elevate your dealership's visibility and sales performance.

Premier为经销商提供了一种开创性的方式，可以在买车者需要的时间、地点和方式下精准连接。每月超过2000万次访问量，Edmunds.com是买家寻找市场洞察、专家建议和预算工具以做出明智决策的首选目的地。这些购物者不仅仅是消息灵通，他们对自己想要的汽车了如指掌。现在是你们建立联系的机会了。通过Edmunds Premier，经销商可以接触到这个备受追捧的受众群体。只需在Edmunds上列出您的新车和二手车库存，观察符合条件的潜在市场流量直接转向您网站上的详细车辆页面。不要错过提升您的经销商可见性和销售绩效的机会。

You can sign up for a premiere today at edmunds.com CDG. And here's a special offer only for CDG listeners. New customers signing up through edmunds.com CDG will receive an exclusive 50% off pricing for the first 90 days. Again, visit edmunds.com slash CDG or click the link in the show notes below. Over the past couple of months, we've done various forms of shows and consistently the most heavily requested type of show and the most listened to were the episodes that were extremely substantive and offered lots of insight into the market. And so our team actually, we put our head together and we partnered with Edmunds.

您可以在edmunds.com CDG上今天注册一个首映会。这里还有一个专门为CDG听众准备的特别优惠。通过edmunds.com CDG注册的新客户将在头90天内获得独家50%折扣。再次访问edmunds.com/CDG或点击下方节目注释中的链接。在过去的几个月里，我们制作了各种形式的节目，其中最受欢迎且收听量最高的类型是那些非常实质性并提供了市场见解的节目。因此，我们的团队实际上联合了Edmunds。

We're thrilled to launch this first segment of this episode that allows us to really bring the macro and the micro and share insights into where the market is headed, where we're at today and try to make sense of everything going on in the car market. And so today I have Kevin Fry on with me and I also have Jessica Caldwell. Kevin, can you please introduce yourself? Yeah, my name is Kevin Fry. I'm the head coach of marketing with DJF Water Automotive Family. One of our nation's top 25 dealership groups. We have 23 rooftops of which several are automals, which is what makes us so big. I'm Jessica Caldwell. I'm the head of insights at Ed Men's, where I look at all of the web traffic data, all of our transaction data.

我们很高兴推出这一集的第一个部分，让我们能够真正将宏观和微观结合起来，分享关于市场走向的见解，我们今天所处的位置，并试图理清汽车市场上所发生的一切。今天我有凯文·弗莱和杰西卡·考德威尔和我在一起。凯文，您能介绍一下自己吗？是的，我的名字是凯文·弗莱。我是DJF Water汽车家族的营销主管。我们是美国前25大经销商集团之一。我们拥有23家分店，其中有几家是汽车分销商，这就是我们如此之大的原因。我是杰西卡·考德威尔。我是Ed Mann的数据洞察主管，在那里我负责查看所有的网络流量数据和交易数据。

So I know who's mine, what car, how much they're paying. I don't know who they are, but I know all about their transaction and what they're doing and kind of aggregating those trends into these bigger news stories of what's really going on in this market. And that's the question that we're going to start with, Jessica. All right, so first things first, right, like just a table set. A lot's been going on in our industry over the last couple of years, as we know, that's an understatement. But Jessica, new car prices declining, or use car prices in the same fashion, 2023 was a pretty steep decline after the run up over the last couple of years.

所以我知道谁是我的，是什么车，他们支付多少钱。我不知道他们是谁，但我知道关于他们的交易和他们在做什么的一切，将这些趋势汇总成真正市场上正在发生的这些重要新闻故事。这就是我们要从中开始的问题，杰西卡。好的，首先首先，就像摆好了桌子。我们知道过去几年我们行业发生了很多事情，这是一个不够准确的说法。但是，杰西卡，新车价格下降，或者二手车价格也是同样的趋势，2023年在过去几年的上涨之后出现了相当陡的下降。

We're now seeing an entirely new market with margin compression, completely different auto market than we got used to in the last couple of years. I want to start very, very high level. Can you give us a lay of the land of where we're at today and how we got to this point? There's never really been a time where too little inventory was been issued. There's always, there's too much, how are we going to send devices, how are we going to sell it, how are we going to move the metal? But all of a sudden, it was too few. And I think why we're not really sure what's necessarily going on now is because we don't really have an historical playbook for that.

我们现在看到的是一个全新的市场，市场利润被挤压，这个汽车市场与我们过去几年所熟悉的完全不同。我想从一个非常高的层次开始。你能给我们概述一下现在的情况以及我们是如何走到这一步的吗？以前从来没有出现过库存不足的时候。通常都是库存过多，我们要如何销售设备，如何推动销售？但突然间，库存出现短缺。我认为我们现在并不确定发生了什么，是因为我们没有历史上的应对方案。

So we've seen now that inventory is kind of coming back. We're starting to see new prices go down as inventors as incentives are being introduced into the market. And that's making it a little bit better on the new car side. And then as a result, we're seeing used car prices starting to fall a little bit. That market has been extremely competitive for quite a while now because when you can't get a new car, you've got to go get a used car. You need a car in this country. So that really was your only option. So just seeing, and then you throw in high interest rates on top of that, and you have a market that is, like I said, it is so different than anything what we've seen before, where we're used to too much inventory, we were used to low interest rates. And that has not been the case.

所以我们现在已经看到库存有所回升。随着制造商推出激励措施，我们开始看到新车价格下降。这让新车市场稍微好转了一点。因此，我们看到二手车价格也开始略微下降。由于你无法购买新车，你只能去买二手车，这个市场已经相当竞争激烈了相当长的一段时间。在这个国家，你需要一辆车。所以那真的是你唯一的选择。再加上高利率，你会看到这个市场是如此不同于我们以往看到的任何市场，我们习惯了过多的库存，我们习惯了低利率。但现在情况并非如此。

So trying to get back to like, what is normal, I think is the challenge for the industry. But since nobody really knows what that is, I think that's what's making it interesting, but also difficult to predict. So I want to dive deeper into price trends. But is there a normal, is there such thing for us to ever get back to that? Is this like a new baseline that we've set? I mean, it's probably a new baseline. I mean, if you look at price trends, it's generally prices always go out there, ever like, oh, we're just going to go down $10,000. That generally doesn't happen. But it's also consumer preferences has changed over the past decade, because we've gotten used to low interest rates, which got people into bigger cars, because people always want, they want more amenities, they want more features, they want bigger in size.

因此，试图回归正常状态，我认为这对整个行业来说是一个挑战。但由于没有人真正知道什么是正常状态，我认为这也使得情况变得有趣，但同样也难以预测。所以我想深入了解价格趋势。但是有什么是正常的吗，我们是否能够回到那种状态？这是否意味着我们设置了一个新的基准线？我想这可能是一个新的基准线。我是说，如果你看看价格趋势，价格通常一直在上涨，从来没有像“哦，我们只会降低10000美元”那样突然下跌。但还有一个原因是，消费者的偏好在过去十年里已经发生了变化，因为我们已经习惯了低利率，这导致人们更倾向于购买更大的车辆，因为人们总是想要更多的舒适设施、更多的功能和更大的车身尺寸。

And I think low interest rates really following the recession help people get into those bigger vehicles. And so now we're not at that point, I think, where you can get, you know, 0% or 2.5, or whatever it may be. And that is causing obviously, I mean, one of the many reasons why we're seeing so much, I think, you know, consumer just consumers being quite upset could be confused, not understanding what's going on. They want the same thing, all of a sudden, the dealer is telling them it's two to $300 more. And you're like, I have that vehicle. It's the same exact one. Why is it now $300 more on this lease? And again, I think the fact that we're not necessarily used to that. So I think prices are going up. The thing that can normalize thing is the introduction of incentives. So that would cause, I think, monthly payments to go down a little bit. But yeah, in terms of like, are we ever going to go back to an average industry cost of $30,000? Probably not. No, that's not going to happen. And where are we right now? Like, what's the baseline right now in terms of pricing?

我认为低利率在经济衰退之后真的帮助人们购买更大的车辆。所以现在我们并没有达到那个点，我认为你可以获得，你懂的，0%或2.5%之类的。显然这导致了很多原因中的一种，我认为，消费者非常不满，可能感到困惑，不明白发生了什么。他们想要同样的事情，突然之间，销售商告诉他们，租金要涨两三百美元。你会想，我有那辆车。它和上一次一模一样。为什么现在这次租金要涨$300？我认为我们并不是很习惯这种情况。所以我认为价格是在上涨。使情况正常化的因素是激励措施的引入。这会导致月付款稍微下降。但是，就像，我们是否会回到行业平均成本为$30,000的水平？可能不会。不，不会发生。现在我们所处的位置是什么？在定价方面，当前的基线是什么？

Yeah, on the news side, it's about 47. It got close to $50,000 at one point last year. But it's, you know, it's been, I would say, fairly flat in that in the high 40s for quite a number of months. And on the use side, we've seen just a slight decline from the high of 2022. So it's probably more like around $37,000 right now on the use. But use this, I mean, it goes anywhere from one year old land Rover versus a, you know, 15 year old Toyota Corolla. So that's that can vary a lot. That market, obviously.

是的，在新闻方面，它大约在47,000美元左右。去年某个时候曾接近50,000美元。但是在过去几个月里，我认为它一直保持在高40,000美元的水平。而在二手市场，从2022年的高点开始，我们看到了一点点下降。所以现在二手价格可能在37,000美元左右。但是二手市场的价格，可能会涵盖从一年车龄的路虎到15年车龄的丰田卡罗拉之间。所以市场变化很大，显然。

Of course, Kevin, in terms of in dealership, is, are you seeing a similar pattern with just new and used pricing and the decline sat Jessica is pointing to? Yeah, I think, you know, one of the biggest thing is just the reintroduction of incentives and rebates by the OEMs. I think they were probably hesitant to do that because we had some record profitability the last couple of years with the inventory shortages. But now that the market is starting to slow down and in the high interest rates have absolutely made a difference. So people are a look at the rebates and incentives are B we're seeing that the use card demand continue to grow while new card demand is slowing down.

当然，凯文，在经销商方面，你看到的是一个类似的模式，只是新车和二手车的定价和杰西卡所指出的下降吗？是的，我认为，最大的问题之一就是OEMs重新引入激励和折扣。我认为他们可能之前有些犹豫，因为过去几年我们有一些创纪录的盈利，而且库存短缺。但现在市场开始放缓，高利率也确实产生了影响。所以人们会看激励和折扣，我们看到二手车需求继续增长，而新车需求正在放缓。

And what we're seeing on the ground level is that affordability is key. And we've had to shift to really put our focus there. That means low monthly payments. And the other big thing, you know, part of the action we're seeing is the pre approvals because people are struggling to get approved with a tightening of credit. And so more of the drive toward the affordable car seems to be the key right now. Yeah, so when you say affordability is key, what does that mean to you? I mean, you're a top 25 group. It's a pretty good pulse on the market.

在实地层面上，我们看到的情况是实惠性至关重要。我们不得不转变焦点，真正把重点放在那里。这意味着低月供。另一个重要的事情是，我们注意到的一部分行动是提前批准，因为人们在信贷收紧的情况下很难获得批准。因此，对实惠汽车的需求似乎是目前的关键。是的，所以当你说实惠性至关重要，这对你来说意味着什么？我是25强团体的一员，对市场有很好的把握。

Right. So what does that really mean to your group? Well, I'll take a transparently. Traditionally, we're not really putting out offers. We want, we're all about value and the brand value of the whyler name. And in this type of market, we've had to shift with an emphasis on at least one of the two affordability offers per manufacturer mainly portrayed in a low monthly type of payment offer to attract people because they're trying to see, Hey, can I afford a car? The reality is there's always going to be people that need a car.

对了。那对你们团队来说真正意味着什么呢？嗯，我来解释一下。传统上，我们并不真的提供优惠。我们想要的是关于价值以及赛代尔（whyler）品牌价值的考量。在这种类型的市场环境下，我们不得不调整策略，强调每个制造商至少提供一个以低月供方式呈现的优惠，吸引人们的注意，因为他们在考虑能否负担得起一辆车。事实上，总会有需要一辆车的人。

The difference between a good year and a great year is the people that need a car and the people that would wouldn't mind having a newer car and things are going well economically and to include at their household, they can reach out and buy that additional car.

一个好年份和一个伟大的年份的区别在于需要一辆车的人和愿意拥有一辆新车的人，经济状况良好并且家庭情况允许他们购买额外的车辆。

That's super interesting, Kevin, because you mentioned specifically advertising affordability. And like you said, going after that consumer given that's what the market wants. So Jessica, flipping back to you, what are you seeing on the auto finance side? Like how is the finance side playing into that? Because lower payments to me, I mean, it's math. How can we, how can we as an industry get that without extending terms offering crazy rebates? So what are you seeing on the auto finance side that's making this possible?

这真的很有趣，凯文，因为你特别提到了广告的实惠性。就像你说的那样，追求市场想要的客户。所以杰西卡，转回给你，你在汽车金融方面看到了什么？金融方面如何影响到这一点？因为对我来说，较低的付款意味着数学。我们作为行业如何在不延长期限或提供疯狂的折扣的情况下实现这一点呢？那么在汽车金融方面，你看到了什么使这一切成为可能？

Well, I mean, I think that is sort of the crux of it, because we, I'm sure Kevin probably knows this from his colleagues, but people shop on monthly payments. How much can I afford? And that really is what they're looking at at the end of the day. And when we look at on the end to the market and the averages, I mean, they're quite high. I mean, you've got new cars well over $700, even used vehicles that are zero to three years old are over the thing about $650 on average. So people are financing these vehicles. They are always looking for longer loan terms.

嗯，我是说，我认为这是问题的关键，因为我们，我相信凯文可能从同事那里知道，但人们通常会按月付款购物。我能负担多少？这真的是他们在一天结束时看重的。当我们看向市场和平均水平时，我是说，它们相当高。新车价格超过700美元，甚至是零到三年的二手车平均价格也在大约650美元左右。因此，人们在为这些车辆融资。他们总是寻求更长的贷款期限。

I think that that is sort of the American way. I want that bigger vehicle. I want that nicer vehicle with all the amenities. Like, is that only $5 more a month? Okay, you know, I'll sign up for that. I think you're starting to see a little bit more leasing. I mean, leasing has been not a great market over the past few years.

我认为这有点像美国人的方式。我想要那辆更大的车。我想要那辆更豪华，配备所有舒适设施的车。比如说，每个月只多5美元？好的，知道了，我会选择这个。我觉得你会开始看到更多的租赁。我是说，租赁在过去几年里并不是一个好市场。

But we have seen it tick up a little bit. So perhaps people are just trying to get what they want in a way they can afford, even though that monthly payment is a lot higher. But maybe it's the best alternative. I mean, for the consumer out there, it is challenging because you're, you know, you have to really look at all avenues. And that's what we always are advising, looking at certified pre-owned, used, new lease, because with interest rates the way they are.

但我们已经看到它有所上升。也许人们只是尝试以他们负担得起的方式得到他们想要的东西，即使每月付款额要高得多。但也许这是最好的选择。我的意思是，对于消费者来说，这是具有挑战性的，因为你需要真正审视所有途径。这就是我们一直建议的，看看认证二手车、二手车、新车租赁，因为利率如此之高。

And incentives being very pocketed, not necessarily blanket incentives like we've seen in times of times past. It's a bit harder to sniff out that deal than it was beforehand where it felt like everything was on sale. Like, that was just the auto industry way. Yeah, so on the topic of leasing, why are we seeing now, like, what's changing that leasing is rising again?

随着激励计划变得更加个性化，不再像以往那样提供笼统的激励。现在要找到优惠交易有点困难，不像以前一切似乎都在打折。就像以前汽车行业的方式一样。关于租赁这个话题，为什么我们现在看到租赁再次兴起呢？

Because you're right, the past couple of years have not been great leasing years. And we know that I've had plenty of discussions about this on the podcast, right? Manufacturers were disincentivized to lease in a supply constraint environment. They were more incentivized to sell. What's changing now is it simply more supply and cheaper payments? Is there anything else to the picture? Why leasing? Why is it growing now again?

因为你是对的，过去几年并不是很好的租赁年份。我们知道我在播客中已经有过很多讨论了，对吗？在供应受限的环境中，制造商没有动力进行租赁，他们更愿意销售。现在有什么变化？仅仅是更多的供应和更便宜的付款吗？还有其他因素吗？为什么选择租赁？为什么现在又再次增长？

Well, I think what we're seeing is, yeah, I mean, you're looking at lease interest rates versus new car interest rates and used car interest rates. And, you know, for someone that just wants something that is a nice vehicle, they're just looking at monthly payments. They're not necessarily thinking of their total cost of ownership in this situation. Leasing is, you know, is that? And the fact that inventory has, I think, gone up is definitely the case.

我认为我们现在看到的是，是的，你在看租赁利率与新车利率以及二手车利率之间的比较。对于想要拥有一辆好车的人来说，他们只关注月供，不一定考虑总拥有成本。租赁可能就是这种情况下的选择。而事实上库存量增加了，这是肯定的。

You have people coming back on lease returns as well. Maybe this is not the market where you necessarily want to buy out your lease. That was very popular at one point in time, obviously, when you car inventory was very scant. But now they want options. And I think, you know, for folks that are in that cycle that are in that leasing cycle, they are leasing for, you know, many of them are leasing for a reason. They want something that's new.

您也有人在租赁期满后继续回来。也许这不是您必须要买断租约的市场。在某个时间点，这种做法是非常流行的，显然，当您的汽车库存非常稀缺时。但是现在他们想要选择。我想，您知道，那些在租赁周期中的人，他们租赁的原因之一是他们想要新的东西。

They want the latest and greatest. They're leasing for business. So they have to impress clients. So, you know, there is kind of that factor that you just have to assume. And I ain't known, I'm not sure if it's also that people are accepting this at the higher cost of life. I'm curious what, you know, Kevin, if he hears it from his dealership or people out there, like I'm paying, you know, so much on groceries, hotel, travel, any any time I step outside my house, it's $50.

他们想要最新最好的。他们正在为生意租车。所以他们必须给客户留下深刻印象。所以，你知道，这种因素是必须考虑的。我不确定是不是人们也接受了生活成本的上涨。我很好奇，如果凯文从他的汽车经销商那里听到这些，或者从外面的人那里听到，比如我在食品、酒店、旅行上花了很多钱，每次走出家门，就要花50美元。

So it makes sense that I'm paying more for my car too. So I think there probably is a little bit of that out there as well, if that sentiment. I would agree. We're kind of getting a mix of that. But, you know, I'm probably the oldest one here on the show. And I've seen these patterns over the years. And part of the thing that's confusing, I think right now about today's economy, is that we've seen a lot of the indicators that would seem to point towards a recession. But spending continues at a very high rate. And you'd see that reflected ending, the record levels of credit card debt that are out there right now. And when I look at the consumer level, even though inflation is high and rent and mortgages are right at the top of the list, you know, this affects everybody.

因此，我为我的汽车支付更多款也是合理的。我认为这种情绪在某种程度上可能也存在一些。我同意。我们现在似乎有些混合的情况。但是，你知道，我可能是这个节目中最年长的一个。多年来，我见证了这些模式。让我感到困惑的一件事是，我认为当前的经济状况是，我们看到了很多似乎指向经济衰退的指标。但是支出仍然保持在非常高的水平上。你可以看到反映在创纪录的信用卡债务水平上。当我看 consumer level时，尽管通货膨胀高企，租金和抵押贷款位居榜首，但这影响着每个人。

So even though inflation is high, everything is costing more. It seems like we as the modern day consumer are too stubborn to scale back. So if getting into that nicer car means a lease, I can afford that payment versus perhaps a traditional finance and get a little bit more car for my dollar. We're seeing those type of behaviors. Kevin, I had Brian Benstleich on the pod recently and he spoke about use car leasing. I don't know if you listened to that or if you heard about that, but he said that, you know, something really big that they're taking on given given affordability issues. What are your thoughts on that? Are you guys doing use car leasing? Is that something you've explored? We are not. I'm intrigued by the idea.

尽管通货膨胀很高，但所有东西都变得更贵了。看起来我们现代消费者太固执，不愿削减开支。如果要开一辆更好的车意味着要租赁，我可以负担得起那笔款项，也许比传统融资多得一点汽车。我们看到了这种行为。凯文，我最近在播客节目中采访了布赖恩·本斯莱赫，他谈到了二手车租赁。我不知道你是否有听过或者了解，但他说，鉴于支付能力问题，他们正在大力推行这一点。你对此有什么想法？你们是否在做二手车租赁？这是你们是否考虑过的事情吗？我们没有。我对这个想法很感兴趣。

Of course, when you're when you're leasing a new car and there's that rapid depreciation right in that the first 24 to 36 months, the other part is that mostly the manufacturers are pretty good at predicting what that depreciation is going to be so they can structure that leasing deal favorably. I would imagine on pre own cars, I don't know how much data is available versus the new car, but it's probably a little bit less erratic in measuring that depreciation of the car and a little bit safer. If we were to go back to 0809 and recall the bankruptcies of the OEMs at that time, you have to remember a lot of that was driven by the leasing portfolios where the values of this cars just dropped out of the floor and took the manufacturers down with them because the leases they had out there lost a lot of money.

当你在租赁一辆新车时，通常在最初的24到36个月里会有快速的折旧。此外，大多数制造商都很擅长预测这种折旧，以便有利地构建租赁交易。我想，在二手车方面，不知道可获得多少数据与新车相比，但测量车辆折旧可能会稍微不那么波动，也更加安全。如果我们回到2008年至2009年，回想当时汽车制造商的破产，你必须记住很多都是由租赁组合驱动的，这些车辆的价值突然暴跌导致制造商破产，因为他们的租赁合同导致了巨大的损失。

This episode was brought to you by my very own car dealership guy, industry job board. CDG jobs.com, my industry job board connecting the best talent and automotive with the best companies will remain absolutely free for CDG listeners to post and fill available roles at their companies. This free job board is for anyone in automotive vendors, dealers, lenders, manufacturers, auto tech, everyone already over 100 companies have posted open positions, including lithium motors, recurrent credit acceptance, Vero's credit, cars commerce, shift digital plug, full path, Westlake trade pending, you get the point.

本集节目由我的个人汽车经销商合作伙伴，行业职位板CDG jobs.com 赞助。我的行业职位板连接了汽车行业最优秀的人才和最优秀的公司，仍将继续免费供CDG听众发布和填补公司的空缺职位。这个免费的职位板是供汽车供应商、经销商、贷款机构、制造商、汽车技术人员等所有人使用的，已有超过100家公司发布了开放职位，包括锂动力汽车、经常信用接受、维罗斯信用、车商、数字线上等。西湖贸易待处理，你明白我的意思了。

The best part is that when these companies hire through CDG jobs.com, they are hiring the most informed candidates in the marketplace. So don't hesitate, you can add your open roles today by visiting CDG jobs.com or clicking the link in the show notes below. That's CDGjobs.com. So are you overall, would you say that the market you're seeing more demand for leases? Or would you say it's remained pretty steady?

最好的部分是，当这些公司通过CDG jobs.com招聘时，他们正在雇佣市场上最了解行情的候选人。所以不要犹豫，您可以访问CDG jobs.com或点击下面节目注释中的链接来添加您的空缺职位。就是CDGjobs.com。总的来说，您会说您看到更多对租赁的需求？还是说需求保持相对稳定？

I would say it's fairly flat. I would have thought it might have declined a bit, but we're not seeing that at this time. And the other thing in that would kind of build upon Jessica, and what you were saying as well, is the inventory levels are starting. If they've come back up, they're growing, we're seeing some days in supply, a whole name. I think the manufacturers are more willing to incentivize leases at this time, just to get sales or vehicles moving. And like mechanically, how are those incentives being delivered to the consumer? Is it a better, a lower money factor, which in the leasing world is essentially a fancy term for the interest rate? Like, is there anything specific you're seeing happening?

我会说目前市场相对平稳。我本以为可能会有一些下降，但目前还没有看到。另外，就像Jessica和你所说的一样，库存水平也在逐渐增加。如果库存已经回升，我们开始看到一些供应周期较长的库存。我认为制造商目前更愿意提供租赁优惠，只是为了促进销售或车辆流通。从操作上来看，这些激励是如何传递给消费者的？是更低的资金利率，租赁领域的“货币因子”？有没有具体的变化你正在看到？

From my standpoint, anything they can do rate-wise is probably most attractive, because rates are the biggest challenge in obstacle for the consumers right now. And we are consumers have been spoiled post 9-11 with these low interest rates for 20 something years. It didn't used to always be like this. A lot of the old-timers are out there, I tell you, the interest rates are kind of going back the way they used to be a long time ago. But going once again back to what Jester was saying, our consumers and our conditions in slow rates, and they're coming in saying, holy cow, same car, but the payment's $300 higher per month. How can that be? And that's part of the challenge we have to overcome.

从我的立场来看，他们可以做的任何利率方面的事情可能是最具吸引力的，因为利率是消费者当前面临的最大挑战。而且我们消费者在9/11事件之后被这些低利率宠坏了，已经有20多年了。以前并不总是这样的。很多老前辈们告诉我，利率有点回到了很久以前的样子。但回到Jester所说的，我们消费者和我们的情况都在慢慢适应低利率，他们过来说，天啊，同一辆车，但月付款增加了300美元。怎么可能？这是我们必须克服的挑战之一。

Yeah, Kevin, how do you reconcile that with the fact that use cars are selling pretty consistently? And I know we're short in supply on a relative basis, because of the last couple of years. But do you think that people are just getting adjusted and taking the medicine and they can still afford it? Or is it again, like just really out of need, and it's like it is what it is, a higher interest rate? What's happening?

是的，凯文，你如何将这一点与二手车销售一直保持稳定这个事实相协调呢？我知道相对而言我们的供应短缺，因为过去几年的情况。但你觉得人们是不是正在逐渐适应并承受得起这种情况？或者又是，他们真的是有迫切需要，就像出于对更高利率的需要吗？到底发生了什么？

No, I think it's forced in their hand, because I mean, right now it's definitely a slower market. We're seeing a decline in the total lead counts, but the one exception is our use car lead counts are actually slightly up. Our use car traffic is actually up. I mean, some of the patterns that I'm used to seeing are reversed because people are switching from new to news. The question is why it's coming down to affordability at the end of the day. Now, the biggest challenge for every one of us as dealers across the country, of course, is continuing to acquire the pre-owned inventory that we'd love to have to be able to sell. What's the like any creative ways you're acquiring use car inventory? Traditional ways? How are you doing? How are you going on? Well, I think it's really the biggest thing. Yeah, the age old question, right? How do you acquire the best use car inventory? I'm going to share something with you that you might find surprising because it surprised us. Each year we do a user experience study. We bring in 10 to 12 people, different backgrounds, into our studio. We ask in this series of relevant questions. And one of them was, would you rather sell your car on your own or sell it to a dealership? And what we found surprised us, 90% plus them, said they would rather sell to a dealership. And the reason why is what the surprise was, it came down to safety and security.

不，我认为他们被迫这样做，因为我是说，现在市场确实是慢热的。我们看到总潜在客户数量在下降，但唯一的例外是二手车潜在客户数量实际上略有增加。我们的二手车流量实际上增加了。我是说，我习惯看到的一些模式被颠倒了，因为人们正在从新车转向二手车。问题是，最终归结为支付能力。现在，作为全国各地的经销商，我们每个人面临的最大挑战当然是继续获取我们希望有的二手车库存以便销售。您获取二手车库存的创意方式是什么？传统方式？你是怎么做的？你正在怎么进行？嗯，我认为这真的是最重要的事情。是啊，这个古老的问题，对吧？你如何获取最好的二手车库存？我将与您分享一些您可能会感到惊讶的事情，因为这让我们感到惊讶。每年我们都会进行用户体验研究。我们会邀请10到12位具有不同背景的人进入我们的工作室。我们会问一系列相关问题。其中一个问题是，您更愿意自己销售您的车还是将其销售给经销商？而我们发现让我们感到惊讶的是，90%以上的人表示他们更愿意将车辆销售给经销商。原因是什么让我们惊讶的是，这归结为安全和保障。

And let me share what they were telling us is because in this modern-day market, Craig's List, of course, Facebook marketplace, fraud has become rampant. And not only that, crime has followed, we had a case last fall here in Cincinnati where a couple got shot literally because it was a setup when they were trying to sell their car on Facebook marketplace. This is word is kind of getting around because some of the feedback we were getting was, hey, we'd rather sell to a dealership because there's cameras, there's security. We know we're not going to get defrauded. You know what you're doing. And as a result of UX study, one of the simplest things we did when everybody else was marketing, hey, quick cash for your car, we transitioned and said, sell your car to Jeff Wilder, simple, safe, secure, and actually started moving the needle with that message because it was responsive to how consumers were feeling. Jessica, flipping back to you on just on the topic of affordability still, you've put out some really good data about the state of the market and new car MSRP's. Can you give us an overview? I post about this all time, by the way. People always ask me, just car deals and whatnot. And I post, hey, there's no cars under 20,000, there's X amount of cars under 25,000. People are really interested in this and understanding why this is happening, what is available in different price ranges.

让我分享一下他们告诉我们的事情，因为在这个现代市场上，克雷格名单，当然，Facebook市场，欺诈现象已经变得猖獗。不仅如此，犯罪也随之而来，去年秋天在辛辛那提发生了一个案例，一对夫妇被枪击，因为他们在Facebook市场上试图卖车时被设局了。这种消息开始传开，因为我们收到的一些建议是，嘿，我们宁愿卖给经销商，因为那里有摄像头、有安全设施。我们知道自己不会被骗。我们知道自己在做什么。在用户体验研究的结果中，我们做的最简单的一件事是，当其他人都在强调“快速赚取现金”的时候，我们转变说，把车卖给杰夫·怀尔德，简单、安全、可靠，实际上开始通过这个信息推动销售量，因为这符合消费者的感受。杰西卡，再回到你所提到的关于价格仍然的话题上，你发布了一些关于市场状况和新车厂商建议零售价的数据。你能概括一下吗？顺便说一下，我一直在讨论这个问题。人们经常问我，有什么汽车交易之类的。我会发帖，嘿，没有低于20000的车，有X辆低于25000的车。人们对此非常感兴趣，了解为什么会发生这种情况，不同价格范围内有哪些可用的车辆。

Can you give us an overview of what's happening with affordability, the share of vehicles sold under 30, 25, 20, etc. Well, I think when I tell like the average person, I'm like, oh, the new car, new cars are transacting like getting close to $50,000. Most people are pretty shocked. I think that sounds like a lot of money. And for, you know, those of us have been buying cars for a few decades, it feels like, oh, yeah, a car is new cars, $25,000, like a decent new car is $25,000, not $50,000. And the fact of the matter is, I think even going back to those bankruptcies in 2008, was that part of the public outcry to give these companies money was like, you're not making cars for that people can afford, that are gas guzzlers, they're not attractive. And it feels like the domestic company is answered with a bunch of smaller vehicles.

你能给我们一个关于车辆价格实惠性的概述吗，销售的车辆中价格低于30、25、20等的份额？嗯，我觉得当我告诉普通人时，他们会惊讶地发现，新车的成交价接近50000美元。大多数人都会觉得这是一笔很大的钱。对于我们这些多年购车经验的人来说，感觉像是，嗯，一辆新车应该是25000美元，而不是50000美元。事实上，我认为即使回到2008年的那些破产事件，公众喧哗的一部分是要求给这些公司提供资金，是因为他们没有生产出人们买得起的汽车，那些耗油量大、不吸引人的车型。而国内公司似乎回应了市场的需求，推出了许多小型车型。

And what happened, interest rates continue to be very low. And people didn't want smaller cars. I think left with whatever we can choose, you want something that is definitely bigger. And that's what people have bought. So we're in a situation where it's like things have come full circle now. It's like, now people want less expensive vehicles and they're, they're not for sale. And we actually look at the data. It's like, those vehicles under $25,000 don't really exist. In fact, if you look at a vehicle that's under $20,000, it's basically 0%, like 0% of vehicles, it's 0.4%. So you round it 0% of all new vehicles are sold under $20,000. The number only goes to 5% for vehicles that are under $25,000 compared to almost a quarter five years ago. So it was about 23% of vehicles five years ago were sold for under $25,000. And now it's, it's such a small percentage. And for 30, it's, it's only 18%. So if you are interested in buying a new vehicle, you know, chances are you're paid north of $30,000. And a part of that is your options. There's not a lot of options out there that you can buy, you know, a cheaper vehicle for. They're all fairly expensive at this point.

发生了什么事呢，利率持续很低。人们并不想要更小的汽车。我认为在我们能够选择的范围内，你们想要的肯定是更大的。这就是人们购买的。所以我们现在处于一个情况，就好像事情已经完全逆转了。现在人们想要更便宜的车辆，但是他们买不到。如果我们实际查看数据，就会发现，那些售价在25000美元以下的车辆实际上并不存在。事实上，如果您看一下售价低于20000美元的车辆，实际上是0%，好像售价在20000美元以下的车辆占所有新车销量的0.4%。所以四舍五入为0%。售价低于20000美元的新车销量为0%。而售价低于25000美元的车辆销量只有5%，而五年前几乎四分之一的车辆售价低于25000美元。现在这一比例非常小。对于30000美元，销售额仅为18%。如果您有兴趣购买新车，那么您很可能会支付超过30000美元。原因之一在于你的选择太少。目前市面上买不到许多可用的便宜车型。它们都相当昂贵。

I saw a interesting stat the other day. Is this you guys ready for quiz time here? There was. Okay, so in 2019, there were 19 subcompact cars available on the market. How many are there today? Do you think would you take a guess and say subcompact? I think there's like the Nissan's, the key is the Hyundai's of the world. So, you know, it's not zero. Six. So in five years, we went from 19 subcompact cars to six. And for compact cars, it was 17 down to 13. So, you know, when you look at these transaction prices that continue to grow, it's also because of the options that are out there.

前几天我看到了一项有趣的统计数据。你们准备好进行测验了吗？是这样的。在2019年，市场上有19款小型车可供选择。今天有多少款呢？你们猜猜看，会是多少款小型车？我觉得可能有尼桑、凯迪拉克、现代等品牌。所以，并不是零。六款。所以在五年的时间里，我们从19款小型车减少到了六款。而紧凑型车则从17款减少到了13款。所以，当我们看到交易价格不断增长时，其中也包含了市场上可供选择的车型数量。

They're not a lot of basic modes of transportation on the new vehicle side that, you know, are, you know, affordable. And part of it is because people don't want those. But now you're, you know, we're, you know, we're at this weird situation where it's like, well, it does all you can afford. Okay, now I'm going used instead, because there's not a lot of, you know, options there. So it's like, you know, this idea of affordability is, is, is very interesting. Because a part of it is our own choices that we have made over the past 20 years, that has kind of led us to this point, really. Yeah, that is a very good point, right? So low rates led us to buy bigger, buy more, and then came higher rates, and then came a market where we couldn't buy bigger anymore. But we didn't want to go smaller. So we went used, which, you know, if common sense plays out, which the world does not, you know, work with common sense, but if it does, that means use that some point will rise and come to equilibrium with new or something. But to me, it feels like, and, you know, please try them in here. But if now used is what's most in demand, and what I say now I'm talking about like now, like last couple of months, I mean, these things are constantly evolving, right?

在新车辆方面，并没有很多廉价的基本交通方式。部分原因是因为人们不想要那些。但现在我们处于这种奇怪的情况，好像这是你所能承受的。好吧，现在我转而购买二手车了，因为在那里选择不多。所以这种负担得起性的概念非常有趣。因为其中一部分是我们在过去20年里所做的选择，导致了我们现在的处境。 是的，这是一个非常好的观点，对吗？低利率让我们购买更大、购买更多，然后利率上升，接着出现了一个我们无法再购买更大的市场。但我们又不愿意购买更小的。所以我们选择了二手车，如果常识得以体现，但现实世界并不遵循常识。但如果遵循常识的话，这意味着二手车某个时候会上涨并与新车达到平衡。但对我来说，感觉上，现在二手车是最受欢迎的，我说现在指的是像最近几个月这样的时间，我的意思是这些事情在不断发展变化，对吧？

It feels to me like, you know, as it's just a pendulum, as that swings too far, you know, it'll come back to new and rebates will come back and back and forth. So, you know, one of the other patterns, just if we remember back on this, so post COVID, when inventory levels were so low, we had the computer chip issues in full effect. And so the manufacturers were building, for example, just bare minimum base model trucks. And what happened was we saw these consumers that would have bought new, were going used and paying more for a used truck that was loaded with options than a brand new one, because of what they wanted.

我觉得，你知道，就像一个摆锤一样，当它摆动得太远时，它会回到新的状态，优惠会不断地来回往复。所以，你知道，另一种模式就是，如果我们回想一下，比如在疫情后，库存水平非常低，我们遇到了芯片问题。因此，制造商只建造了基本款的卡车。结果是，我们看到一些本来会购买新车的消费者选择购买二手车，因为他们所想要的配置超过了全新车的价格。

They were conditioned with all of those features and options. And that's another shift in consumer behavior. And I think we continue to see that today, because now, I can't afford that truck new with all the features and options. So I'm going to continue to look on the pre-owned side, because this is what I enjoy to be a long driving. Which I can see that happening, it makes sense to me. Kevin, you mentioned that leads are overall down, right? Customer inquiries are down. You mentioned also that use specifically is up. Are you seeing any change in quality or type? Like, are we seeing more desperate shoppers in the market? Like they really need to have, right? Desperate meaning lower credits core, potentially, that cannot get qualified for a vehicle. Are you seeing any difference there?

他们已经习惯了所有这些功能和选项。这是消费者行为的又一个转变。我认为我们今天仍然能够看到这一点，因为现在，我买不起那辆带有所有功能和选项的新卡车了。因此，我将继续在二手市场上寻找，因为我喜欢长途驾驶。我能理解这种情况，这对我来说是合理的。凯文，你提到潜在客户询盘整体下降，是吗？客户咨询的数量在下降。你还提到使用特别上升。你有没有看到质量或类型有任何变化？比如，我们是否看到市场上更多急需购买的顾客？例如，他们真的迫切需要，对吗？急切意味着信用评分较低，有可能无法获得车辆贷款。你是否看到任何不同？

Yeah, I would give you two patterns. One is that even though, for example, we're seeing an increased website traffic, it's not necessarily equating to more leads. There's many more time on site. So the analogy I would draw is this. I want to take that trip to Hawaii. But I know that it's pretty expensive. I don't know if I can afford it. But I keep going back to that website and researching that trip to Hawaii. But I just don't want to pull the trigger yet because it's expensive. So you're kind of seeing a slowing as to how long they'll wait before they'll actually pull the trigger and reach out. And then of course, we're going to work with them to close the sale. So I'm seeing it take a little bit longer, right? The buying cycle is extending out. It's getting a little more challenging to close the deals. And from a marketing perspective, my goal is always to try and drive more in market shoppers to our site. But I can lead a horse to water, but I can't make him drink. And that's part of what we're seeing right now too. We can keep bringing more and more horses, but I cannot force them to drink and convert.

是的，我可以给你两个模式。其中一个是，即使比如说，我们看到网站流量增加了，这并不一定等同于更多的潜在客户。他们在网站上停留的时间更长。所以我想用一个类比来说明。我想去夏威夷旅行。但我知道那很贵。我不确定我能负担得起。但我一直在回到那个网站上，研究夏威夷之行。但我还不想下定决心，因为太贵了。所以你可能会看到他们会等多久才真正下定决心并主动联系我们。然后当然，我们会与他们合作完成销售。所以我发现这个过程需要花更长的时间，对吧？购买周期在延长。关闭交易变得更具挑战性。从市场营销的角度来看，我的目标始终是努力吸引更多的潜在购物者到我们的网站。但我可以引导马到水边，却无法强迫它们饮水。这也是我们现在看到的一部分。我们可以继续引进越来越多的潜在客户，但我无法强迫他们进行转化。

Yeah, the scenario described sounds like my relationship with Zillow. Go on Zillow, look for that. And so I wanted to dig deeper there, right? Tell me more about the consumer behavior that you're seeing. Some of the questions I got prior to this episode was revolving around. We've seen lots of online e-commerce, auto retailers, not make it. I suffered his fate. I went through this experience as well. But more recently, you've seen Vroom, super well-capitalized at one point. They went down. Carvan has gone through its roller coaster cycle, very stock market-driven shift a year ago. So, Don, what are you seeing in terms of shopper behavior, in terms of online in person?

是的，描述的情况听起来像我和Zillow的关系。在Zillow上搜索一下。所以我想深入了解一下，对吗？告诉我更多关于你所看到的消费者行为。在这一集之前我得到的一些问题围绕着。我们看到很多在线电商、汽车零售商没能成功。我也经历过这样的命运。但最近，你看到了Vroom，曾经资金充裕，但却失败了。Carvan也经历过它的过山车周期，一年前经历了非常受股市驱动的变化。所以，唐，你在网购者行为和线下购买方面看到了什么？

I'll give you a couple things. So, credit pre-approvals are growing. A lot of activity there. A digital retailing tool. We'll normally see 50 to 55,000 pencil deals per month. We're seeing now between 55 to 65,000. What's going on there? What they're doing is they're getting in there and trying to pencil the deal to see, you know, can I qualify? They want to get a good idea. What's that monthly payment going to be? We're seeing more time spent on that because once again, I think they're just being more cautious to pull the trigger. They're trying to self-qualify themselves and see, do I have the financial ability to buy the car that I need?

我会给你几个要点。所以，信用预先批准正在增长。那里有很多活动。一个数字零售工具。通常我们每个月会看到 50 到 55,000 个铅笔交易。现在我们看到的是 55 到 65,000 之间。那里发生了什么？他们正在进去尝试铅笔交易，看看，我能符合条件吗？他们想要一个好主意。那个月付款会是多少？我们看到在这方面花费更多的时间，因为我再次认为他们只是更谨慎地扳动扳机。他们试图自我确认资格并看看，我有足够的财力购买我需要的车吗？

The last thing I would share is that even though we're seeing like a decline in leads, we're working them more aggressively. And now that some of the rebates and incentives are coming back, we're actually raising our closing rates, which is a good thing because the last few years, I mean, kind of the running joke out here in the field was you could just sit behind a desk and people would line up to buy a car from, you know, without doing a single thing. Now we're having to go back to the fundamentals to really work with people to help them with their credit, whatever the case may be, to put them in that vehicle that they want.

我想分享的最后一件事是，尽管我们看到潜在客户的数量在下降，但我们正在更加积极地努力工作。现在一些折扣和激励计划开始恢复，我们实际上提高了我们的成交率，这是一件好事，因为在过去几年里，我是说，这里在汽车销售领域有一个流行的笑话，你只需坐在办公桌后，客户就会排队来购买汽车，而不需要做任何事情。现在我们需要回到基础，真正与客户合作，帮助他们解决信用等问题，让他们买到他们想要的车。

Kevin, in terms of overall sales volume, can you give us some numbers? Write some perspective of how you're tracking relative to prior year, your overall sales volume units, where are you at? So on the use side, year to day, we're actually up a little bit over 3% on the new side. We're down 5.5 to 6%. And so that pattern is really kind of settled in around last October, moving forward. If I could literally pull up my analytics and take you down almost to the day, it was right around October 7th and 8th when Israel was attacked. And I think that was kind of the beginning of losing some of the consumer confidence in the market. And that measurably is the one thing we seem to be able to feel to identify was kind of like the final straw to start really slowing down some of the divine patterns that we were seeing out there.

凯文，在整体销售量方面，你能告诉我们一些数字吗？谈谈你相对于去年的追踪情况，你的整体销售量，你目前的状态在哪里？所以就使用方面而言，从今年开始算，我们在新产品方面实际上增加了超过3%。我们在旧产品方面下降了5.5%至6%。因此，这种模式实际上在去年十月左右开始沉淀下来。如果我能打开我的分析数据，带你了解几乎每一天的销售情况，就是去年十月7日和8日以色列遭受攻击的时间。我认为那是开始失去市场消费者信心的开端。我们似乎能感觉到明显的一件事是，那似乎是我们能够感受到并确定的最后一根稻草，开始使我们在市场上看到的某些神奇模式真正减缓下来。

So one of the biggest things that we have done and we led the industry is we actually removed most of the form submissions on our website. And why might that be? I am here to tell you, and it should be common since to all of us, that the modern day consumer once real-time answers 24 7 to the questions we want. Automotive has been following this antiquated model of a website designed around a form submission for over 20 plus years. And consumers don't want to wait on that answer. And what we did was simple. We just took the calls to action on our website, rather than point them to a form which they were abandoning 70% plus, we started directing them directly to live chat to get those real-time answers. We easily tripled and quadrupled our conversion just by doing that.

因此，我们做的最重要的一件事是，我们引领了行业，实际上删除了我们网站上大部分的表单提交。为什么会这样呢？我来告诉你，对我们所有人来说，这应该是常识，现代消费者希望获得24小时7天实时回答。汽车行业一直遵循着围绕表单提交设计的网站这种古老模式已经超过20年了。消费者不想等待答案。我们所做的很简单。我们只是将网站上的行动呼吁指向了实时聊天，而不是将他们引导到一个他们放弃70%以上的表单上，以获得那些实时回答。我们仅仅通过这样做就轻松地将我们的转化率增加了两三倍甚至四倍。

But the other thing I would add is this that we did, and this is such an exciting time in the industry with AI. We started leveraging AI to work those leads, those opportunities when we were not available. And so 40% of our shopping activity is happening outside of dealership hours. What we found, very surprisingly, is that it is setting hundreds of appointments per month for us without us lifting a finger and directly selling between 70 to 100 cars per month. And it's all because we're just accommodating with the modern day consumer once, which is real-time answers to their questions in our automotive shopping experience.

但我想补充的是，我们还采用了人工智能技术，这是一个激动人心的时代。我们开始利用人工智能处理那些我们不在场时的潜在客户和机会。因此，我们有40%的购车活动发生在经销店营业时间之外。令我们非常惊讶的是，这项技术每月为我们预约数百次，直接销售70至100辆汽车。这一切都因为我们紧跟现代消费者需求，提供实时回答他们在汽车购物体验中的问题。

So I'm pretty fascinated because I am on your website right now. And I see I'm pressing getting in touch. It's putting me into a live chat. Love it. You're saying after hours, that turns into an AI-driven live chat. Is that right? Well, we're leveraging an outside tool to work the leads that are coming from all our providers. The live chat with AI, we have been exploring, we want to pursue that. But candidly, I have not seen a good solution yet. But if you understand AI and machine learning, all of it takes time to machine learn and get better. And I'm hoping within the next 12 months, we're going to see a very good live chat solution doing that.

所以我感到非常着迷，因为我现在正在您的网站上。我看到我正在点击联系我们。它把我带入了一个实时聊天。太棒了。您说在工作小时之后，会变成一个由人工智能驱动的实时聊天。是这样吗？嗯，我们正在利用外部工具来处理所有来自我们所有供应商的潜在客户。关于带有人工智能的实时聊天，我们一直在探索，我们想要继续下去。但坦率地说，我还没有看到一个好的解决方案。但如果您了解人工智能和机器学习，所有这些都需要时间进行机器学习和改进。我希望在接下来的12个月内，我们将看到一个非常好的实时聊天解决方案做到这一点。

And for all of your listeners, I'll throw out a challenge and here's what I am willing to pay for. If you can provide a live chat solution for a portal site with AI back then up that knows which of my 23 rooftops to send that consumer to, I will be thrilled because I think that's going to be one of the next big breakthroughs for us here in automotive. So you're saying actually routing specific customers to where they're best suited? Right now, we're essentially, you've got it. We're forcing them to choose a dealership closest to you, that kind of mechanics versus letting AI drive the conversation and then push them in the right direction based upon what's going on in that. Well, you have a guaranteed customer, so I'm sure someone has listened to this again, some ideas. That's interesting. Okay, now I want to transition into brands.

对于所有听众，我将提出一个挑战，这里是我愿意付款的条件。如果你可以为一个带有AI支持的门户网站提供实时聊天解决方案，并且能够知道应该将消费者发送到我23个销售点中的哪一个，我会感到非常高兴，因为我认为这将是我们汽车行业下一个重要突破。所以你的意思实际上是将特定客户路由至最适合他们的地方？现在，我们实际上就是这样做的。我们强迫他们选择最靠近他们的经销商，那种机械方式，而不是让人工智能主导对话，然后根据情况引导他们朝着正确的方向前进。嗯，你拥有一个保证的客户，所以我相信某人听到这个之后会有一些想法。这很有趣。好的，现在我想转变话题谈一谈品牌。

We've kind of tables head here on affordability and discussing just how to stay to the consumer. Going more high level, what are you seeing from a brand perspective? What brands are underperforming for you overperforming? Right? What's that state of the union? Our strongest right now is Toyota. It continues. It has all the way through. I mean, when the truck pulls up front, probably nine of them inventory is pre sold. Honda coming in close second, working well. Industry wide. I think we all read the same news. Stellantis is struggling. We have several Stellantis points. We love Stellantis. We work closely with them. But you've likely seen some of the news where Stellantis is actually lowering some of their MSRP currently just to try to make their vehicles more competitively priced. Another one is challenging. It's one of my favorite partners is Nissan. Part of that is probably just because we need to freshen up the line of product that's out there. It seems like most of it updated all around at the same time and it's getting a little bit flat. But those are probably the two that I'm putting my most time into right now to try and move the needle. So do you think it's strictly a price thing? What's driving that? We've all heard of Stellantis. We all know, like you said, they're dropping some MSRP. What's the end game here? Just price? That is certainly there's a price thing to be competitive. It's out there. But with Nissan, I really do think they need to freshen up the inventory. I remember when the Nissan Rogue came out, it was the hottest thing going on and it was fantastic. But you can only go so many years before you really need to freshen up the models. We have over 40 franchises.

我们在Affordability这方面有一些头脑风暴，讨论如何保持对消费者的吸引力。从更高的层面来看，你从品牌的角度看到了什么？哪些品牌在你看来表现不佳或表现出色？对吧？整体情况如何？我们目前最强大的是丰田。它一直如此。我是说，当卡车停在前面时，可能有九分之一的库存已经预售了。本田紧随其后，运营良好。在整个行业范围内，我认为我们都看到了相同的新闻。斯泰兰蒂斯正在挣扎。我们有几个斯泰兰蒂斯的销售点。我们非常喜欢斯泰兰蒂斯，与他们密切合作。但您可能已经看到过一些新闻，即斯泰兰蒂斯实际上正在降低一些建议零售价格，以试图使他们的车辆价格更有竞争力。另一个具有挑战性的品牌是我的最爱之一尼桑。其中一部分可能只是因为我们需要更新现有产品线。似乎大部分产品同时更新，形式稍显生涩。但这可能是我目前投入最多时间的两个品牌，以便推动销售。那么，您认为这纯粹是价格问题吗？是什么促使了这种情况？我们都听说过斯泰兰蒂斯。我们都知道，就像你说的，他们正在降低一些建议零售价格。这里的最终目的是什么？仅仅是价格吗？当然，竞争力是价格问题。但对于尼桑来说，我真的认为他们需要更新库存。我记得尼桑Rogue推出时，曾风头无两，真是太棒了。但你只能坚持多少年，在真正需要更新车型之前。我们拥有超过40个连锁加盟店。

And the joy of being in automotive today is regardless of the manufacturer. There are so many great cars to choose from. And that means is, I know we have, you really have to be on your game to compete against the Mazda's, the Nissan's, the key is the Hyundai's, all of the different makes that are out there. I'm curious if Toyota being one of your top brands and it feels like they've kind of hit a stride recently. I mean, they would kind of criticize for being sort of like, you know, a little bit old, a little bit old-fashioned for quite some time. Their design has changed a lot, but also where they've been really successful recently has been with hybrids. And although all of the news for the past few years have been consumed by electric vehicles, it feels like hybrids are kind of now having a little bit of their moment because for a lot of folks, hybrid is sort of where they are right now in 2024, maybe 2030 and maybe different. And it seems like that's given brands like Toyota, a bit of a second win. I imagine the hybrids are probably hard to keep in stock. When I look at the national numbers, those move pretty quick.

今天在汽车行业的乐趣在于不管是哪个制造商都有很多优秀的汽车可供选择。这意味着，我知道我们必须竭尽全力与马自达、日产、起亚等不同品牌竞争。我很好奇丰田是否是您最喜欢的品牌之一，感觉他们最近有点触底反弹。他们曾经被批评为有点老式，一直都有点过时。他们的设计已经有了很大的改变，但近年来真正成功的地方是在混合动力方面。虽然过去几年所有的新闻都被电动车所占据，但现在感觉混合动力车型正在迎来属于它们的时刻，因为对于很多人来说，混合动力是他们目前在2024年，甚至2030年的选择。看起来像丰田这样的品牌获得了第二春。我想混合动力车型可能很难保持现货。从全国数据来看，这些车型销售得相当迅速。

Same thing with Honda as well. They're hybrids. And I'm wondering if that's kind of a part of why there is a lot of demand there. It seems like that year 100% right. And I imagine the chairman of Toyota is probably sitting there with a smug look in his face thinking, I told you all several years ago, we have been following EVs aggressively for three years as part of our future. In the UX studies that we were doing two and three years ago, kept indicating when we listen to the consumer, they're like, well, the answer is already there. The hybrid is what we want. The hybrid is what we need. And it made the most sense, but it seems like all the OEMs were all aboard 100% in EVs. I think Toyota was taking the right path. It was gutsy. It took some courage to do what they did. And now it's paying off. And the big trend that right now that we're looking at, we're seeing the other OEMs come in on is on the plug-in hybrids, or hot and a firecracker to coming in. So I think in the long term picture, the hybrids, the plug-in hybrids are going to be the transition to a more of an EV market in the future. Right. Yeah. I mean, Toyota had said that. I want to say I went to a Toyota event in 2010, and they were saying the bridge to EVs is going to be an extremely long one that takes decades, not in the matter of a few years. And it is sort of looking at that. And I think we need to think about it logically. And I imagine this is probably hard to explain to a customer. For a lot of people, a plug-in hybrid works well. I mean, you're not driving 50 miles a day, most people aren't. Having that electric charge of 20, 30 miles in the rust is on a hybrid. If you want to go on a long trip, it sort of works well. But I think getting people to the point of understanding that concept is probably a bit of a challenge versus strictly a hybrid or strictly an electric vehicle.

同样的情况也发生在本田身上。它们都是混合动力车。我在想这是否是导致需求量很大的原因之一。看起来是这样没错。我想丰田的董事长坐在那里脸上带着得意的表情，心里想着几年前我告诉过大家，我们已经在过去三年积极跟进EV。在我们两三年前进行的UX研究中，不断表明当我们倾听消费者意见时，他们都在说，嗯，答案已经在这里了。我们想要的是混合动力车。我们需要的是混合动力车。这是最合理的选择，但看起来所有的汽车制造商都全力支持EV。我认为丰田选择了正确的道路。这是大胆的。他们的做法需要一些勇气。现在看来是值得的。我们目前正在关注的一个大趋势是其他汽车制造商开始涉足插电混合动力车，或者会迅速跟进。因此，在长期的视角来看，混合动力车和插电混合动力车将是未来电动汽车市场过渡的一部分。是的。是的。我想丰田曾经说过这一点。我记得2010年参加了丰田的一次活动，他们说过过渡到EV将是一个非常漫长的过程，需要几十年的时间，而不是数年的时间。我们看起来确实正在这样做。我认为我们需要理性地思考这个问题。我想这可能很难向顾客解释。对很多人来说，插电混合动力车很不错。我是说，大多数人不会每天都开50英里。在混合动力车上拥有电动驱动20到30英里，在长途旅行时非常方便。但我认为让人们理解这个概念可能是有一定挑战的，相较于纯粹的混合动力车或纯电动车。

So sometimes it is a bit of a, I say, a marketing challenge and probably a knowledge challenge as well. Yeah. At the end of the day, you've got to let the consumers drive. You know, it's their demand is what's going to drive the sales. You can't force something down. It's, I like it to like the field of dreams. If we build the EVs, they will come. Not necessarily. I mean, there's still a lot of very logical and reasonable concerns and objections that the modern day consumers have with EVs. And so we just can't snap our fingers and overnight be 100% over with EVs within five years. The one thing that fascinates me that California has led in has been the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with Toyota.

有时候确实有点儿挑战，我说的是市场挑战，可能也是知识挑战。是的。归根结底，你必须让消费者驱动。你知道，是他们的需求推动销售。你不能强迫他们接受。我把它比喻为梦想的领域。如果我们造了电动车，他们会来。不一定。我是说，现代消费者对电动车还是有许多合乎逻辑和合理的担忧和反对意见。所以我们不能轻而易举地在五年内就完全过渡到电动车。有一件事让我着迷，那就是加州在丰田的领导下开发的氢燃料电池车。

Because to me, that actually, if you're truly concerned about emissions in the environment, it's a very fascinating idea. It seems like the infrastructure would be a little bit simpler to build out. But out here in Ohio, I've seen higher than or higher of any of that. Yeah. Don't see a lot out here, to be honest though. Do you think, you know, do you think it's, it's a desirability issue, a price point issue, combination? Right? Because we are seeing that the second most sold EV behind Tesla is the Chevy Bolt, which was just discontinued, go figure. I order trying to come up with a new one. But do you think that the, it's really just a lax product market fit at the current price point or do you feel because they're not desirable enough? How do you see it?

对我来说，如果你真的关心环境排放的话，这其实是一个非常迷人的想法。看起来基础设施可能会更容易建设。但在俄亥俄州这里，我看到的比这更高的。是的，在这里我并没有看到太多。说实话，你认为，你认为这是一个吸引力的问题，一个价格问题，还是两者的结合？对吧？因为我们看到除了特斯拉之外，销量第二高的电动车是雪佛兰Bolt，但它刚刚停产，真是讽刺。我正在尝试推出一个新的版本。但你觉得，真的只是在当前价格点上产品市场适配不足还是因为它们不够有吸引力？你怎么看待这个问题？

There is absolutely a price point issue, hands down. But from our UX studies, that's not like the preeminent reason why they don't want to do it. They're not foolish. They're down to infrastructure. I mean, we really have a chart, three charging stations right outside of our corporate office. And I'll see people out there for two and three hours at a time versus going to the gas station for five minutes. And, and so that's a reasonable concern people have. That's a typical experience. I don't want to be waiting to charge this. I lived in an apartment building or a condominium. I can't put in a charger. The big one we get all the time is like, what about, what are we doing a long trip?

绝对存在价格问题，毫无疑问。但根据我们的用户体验研究，这不是他们不愿意购买的首要原因。他们并非愚蠢。他们担心的是基础设施。我的意思是，我们公司办公室外有三个充电站。我常看到人们在那里待上两三个小时，而不是去加油站花五分钟。这是人们担心的一个合理问题。这是一种典型经历。我不想等着充电。如果我住在公寓或公寓楼里，我无法安装充电器。我们经常听到的一个问题是，如果我们要进行长途旅行呢？

Most of our EV buyers that we have now, these are secondary vehicles. And for us as dealers, I'm not anti-EV by any measure. In fact, if you've driven them, they're absolutely cool. The features and everything are phenomenal. 9% of our battles to get someone behind the wheel because we can probably get them to fall in love with it. But once we once we even do it that, it keeps coming back to infrastructure. How am I going to charge this, etc. And that's where it becomes difficult because I think we as a nation are still years behind building out the infrastructure that we need to have in place.

目前我们大部分的电动汽车买家，这些都是备用车辆。作为经销商，我绝不反对电动汽车。事实上，如果你开过电动汽车，它们绝对很酷。它们的功能和一切都非常出色。但是我们必须动用9%的努力让某人试驾，因为我们可能会让他们爱上它。但是一旦我们做到这一点，问题又转回到基础设施。我要怎样给它充电等等。这就变得困难起来，因为我认为我们作为一个国家在建设我们所需的基础设施方面仍然落后了几年。

Are you thinking right now about growth or, and if you are, specifically looking out from a brand perspective, how are you thinking about that in general? What has been going on for the last year to fight a lot of traditional economics? We as dealers are not only uncertain, we are cautious. We're literally taking this month by month at this point. If you want to ask what we're focusing on, I'm going to tell you it's efficiency. Because back to economics one on one, you grow through volume or efficiency. Right now, I don't think any of us dealers out there are going to have a growth game based upon volume. But efficiency is a whole net of question. I think we can become a lot more efficient to drive that growth and profitability.

你现在是在考虑增长吗？如果是的话，具体从品牌的角度来看，你是如何思考的呢？过去一年中发生了什么，以对抗很多传统经济学？作为经销商，我们不仅感到不确定，还感到谨慎。目前，我们确实是以月份为单位来计划。如果你想问我们关注什么，我会告诉你我们关注的是效率。因为回归到基础经济学，增长取决于产量或效率。现在，我不认为我们经销商中有任何人会基于产量来实现增长。但是效率是一个大问题。我认为我们可以变得更加高效，从而推动增长和盈利。

And once again, the good news with a lot of the technology that we're seeing today with the AIs of the world, we can talk about customer data platforms, things to that nature are giving us incredible game changing opportunities to be more efficient as ever while most importantly becoming even more consumer facing. So our number one objective right now is efficiency. And before we wrap up, I do want to shift to big picture. Jessica, as you think about the outlook for the next 30, 60, 90 days, looking at the macro but also hearing what Kevin has to say, what is your outlook on the car market? Right. Well, March is generally one of the strongest selling months of the year if we look at just from the volume standpoint. And then we're going to go into April is a bit hit or miss. And then we go into the strong selling months. So I think we're headed into at least a good territory January and February, always notoriously slow.

再次，有很多我们今天看到的技术是好消息，比如世界上的人工智能，我们可以谈论客户数据平台，类似的东西给了我们令人难以置信的变革性机会，让我们变得比以往更高效，而且最重要的是让我们变得更加面向消费者。所以我们目前的首要目标是效率。在我们结束之前，我想转向宏观视角。杰西卡，当你考虑未来30、60、90天的前景时，从宏观角度看，也听了凯文的看法之后，你对汽车市场有什么看法？对。好吧，如果我们只从销量的角度来看，三月通常是一年中销售最强劲的月份之一。然后四月可能有些好些坏。然后我们进入销售强劲的月份。所以我认为我们至少正在进入一个好的领域，一月和二月始终是出名的慢月份。

So I wouldn't take where 2024 and based on what we have seen this year thus far. But I think we'll see a little bit more discounting that is going to come to the market. And I think that is definitely going to help drive traffic interest rates. That's always a big question. We want them to go down. Doesn't look like, especially after seeing the latest economic report that that's necessarily going to happen in the next few months. It looks like that's going to stay relatively high. So it really is up to automakers. I think at this point to move the metal who's willing to incentivize a bit more. Obviously they want to take advantage of that strong spring early summer selling season. So kind of figuring out what those programs are at that point is going to be good.

所以我不会准确预测到2024年的情况，基于我们今年到目前为止所看到的情况。但我认为我们会看到更多的折扣出现在市场上。我认为这肯定会帮助推动交易利率。这始终是一个重大问题。我们希望利率下降。看起来不太可能，尤其在看到最新的经济报告后，未来几个月可能不会发生这种情况。利率似乎会保持相对较高的水平。所以现在真的取决于汽车制造商。我认为他们可以通过增加激励来推动车辆销售。显然，他们希望利用强劲的春季和初夏销售季节。所以在那个时候弄清楚这些计划会很重要。

But consumers, I think, are they are scared. They've had a tumultuous past few years of shopping for a new vehicle. And there is a lot of trepidation. So I think a little bit more convincing having better deals out there will definitely bring them more to market. But it's probably the time to if you're going to do it to start at this point. Jessica well stated, Kevin, before we wrap up any closing thoughts on your end.

但是消费者们，我认为他们感到害怕。他们在过去几年购买新车时经历了很多波折。他们有很多顾虑。所以我认为提供更优惠的交易一定会吸引更多人进入市场。但现在可能是最好的时机，如果你打算开始的话。杰西卡说得很好，凯文，在我们结束之前，你有什么结尾的想法吗？

I would say we as dealers, we have rising for plan expense with these high interest rates. And so we're actually very incentivized to discount the vehicles just as much as the manufacturer wants to put out rebates in incentives. And that paints a pretty good picture if you're a car buyer right now to get a good deal. And what do you have to say for dealers that are listening?

作为经销商，我会说随着高利率的上升，我们计划的费用也在增加。因此我们实际上非常有动力去打折车辆，就像制造商想要发布的折扣和激励一样。如果你现在是一位汽车买家，这其实是一个很好的时机来谈判优惠。对于正在听的经销商，你有什么想说的呢？

I would say for dealers right now that in good times and bad, it's not a time for excuses for us. It's rather how we address the current market. And that's part of what makes automotive so exciting. It's like an eternal game of chess that keeps you up every night, but you're not going to win because there's so many moving parts you got to work around. It is a challenging market right now. But that means the dealers that hit it most aggressively and get creative are going to be the ones that win. And so we're excited to work through this market.

我想对经销商们说，无论是好时光还是坏时光，现在不是找借口的时候。我们应该关注如何应对当前的市场形势。这也是汽车行业如此令人振奋的地方。就像一场永恒的国际象棋比赛，让你夜不能寐，但你并不会取胜，因为有太多变数需要你去应对。现在的市场是具有挑战性的。但这意味着那些积极应对并且富有创造力的经销商将会取得成功。所以我们非常期待在这个市场中取得好的成绩。

Well stated my friend, Jessica Caldwell, Kevin Fry. Thanks so much for coming on. Appreciate all the insights. It's going to be definitely interesting couple months and I'm excited to keep following tabs on that look you shared here and see how this all plays out. Thank you. Thank you for having me.

这么说得好，我的朋友杰西卡·考德威尔德，凯文·弗莱。非常感谢你们的到来。非常感谢你们的见解。接下来的几个月一定会很有趣，我很期待继续关注你们分享的信息，看看事情将会如何发展。谢谢你们。感谢你们邀请我。

All right. Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating. Consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you guys next time.

好的。希望你喜欢这一集。请给这个播客评分。考虑订阅该节目，并查看节目注释中关于我们讨论的链接。谢谢收听。下次再见。我会在下次节目中见到你们。