Potential Autonomous Shakeup / BYD Execs Share Issues / Rivian "Completely Irresponsible" ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. In case you missed it, Martin Vieja said that if you've been a long-term Tesla shareholder, you may now be able to get a foundation series Cybertruck early. I won't read through all of the eligibility requirements, just know if you own over 500 Tesla shares and have for a few years, you have until March 22nd to take advantage of this offer. Right now it's only in the United States and Canada. Of course, Tesla will never please everybody and some people are going to be upset about this feeling like they're being jumped in line for those that don't fit this criteria, but I think it is a cool way for Tesla to honor some of its long-term shareholders. If you're interested, I'll have the link with all of the information below.

欢迎来到《蓄电》节目，我是主持人Dylan Loomis。如果你错过了，Martin Vieja说如果你是长期持有特斯拉股份的股东，现在可能可以提前获得一辆基础系列的Cybertruck。我不会逐条列出所有的资格要求，只需知道如果你持有超过500股特斯拉股份并且已经持有几年，你可以在3月22日前利用这个优惠。目前只限于美国和加拿大地区。当然，特斯拉不可能让所有人满意，有些人可能会因为觉得自己被优先考虑而感到不满，但我认为这是特斯拉向一些长期股东表示敬意的一种很酷的方式。如果你感兴趣，我会在下面提供所有相关信息的链接。

Winston on X said 85,000 miles and the pads still look good at sharing a picture of the Tesla brake pad saying thanks region breaking. Another user Ben said, at the very least, I'd break heavily once per week to clear any surface rust in the UK. We have yearly inspections and it would not pass if it's rusted out. Then Lars said, we learned that lesson hard on original SNX, our early customers in Norway gave us this insight and we learned from them and improved. Now all Teslas come with brake disc wiping in cold climates to clear ice as well as extensive corrosion prevention on the rotors, pads and calipers to last longer than traditional ice brakes.

温斯顿在X上说，行驶了85,000英里，刹车片看起来依然很好，分享了一张特斯拉刹车片的照片，表示感谢区域刹车。另一名用户本说，在英国，至少每周会重重地刹车一次，以清除任何表面生锈。我们有每年的检查，如果生锈了就无法通过。然后拉斯说，我们在最初的SNX上吃了教训，挪威的早期客户为我们提供了这个见解，我们从中学到了并进行了改进。现在所有的特斯拉都配备了在寒冷气候下擦拭刹车盘以清除冰雪，并在转子、刹车片和卡钳上进行了广泛的防腐处理，以比传统的冰雪刹车更持久。

Then he was asked about Tesla's progress, bringing the Matrix software to the 2021 cars that have the hardware available for Matrix LEDs. Lars said, we just started rolling this out to older hardware capable 3 Y SNX cars in Europe with 2024.8. Great work by the teams to get this going and approved, more regions and features to follow as we get necessary certifications. I suppose there could be more to the story, but at least for now it's as we expected a regulatory reason why this feature is not yet rolling out in other places. For now it's still just parts of Europe that are getting this adaptive headlight functionality, but Tesla is working on rolling this out in the United States as well.

然后他被问及特斯拉在将Matrix软件引入具备Matrix LED硬件的2021年车型方面的进展。拉尔斯表示，我们刚开始将这项功能推出到欧洲配备2024.8年老硬件的3型Y SNX车辆中。团队的工作非常出色，使得这个功能能够顺利开展和获得批准，在获取必要认证后，将会推出更多地区和功能。我想故事可能还有更多内容，但至少目前是如我们所预期的，因为在其他地方尚未推出这项功能可能是出于监管的原因。目前欧洲某些地区正在获得这种自适应大灯功能，但特斯拉也正在努力将这一功能推出到美国。

Whether or not there will be a retrofit available for the vehicles that don't have the proper hardware is to be determined. In case you're thinking wait a second, my high beams already automatically turn off when a car is approaching, this adaptive headlight functionality is just certain pixels or parts of the light that would actually be directed to any oncoming traffic, just those will go off allowing the rest to remain on. Instead of your high beams going off completely, it would just be select portions.

对于没有合适硬件的车辆是否会有改装方案，尚待确定。如果你在想着，等一下，我的远光灯在有车接近时已经会自动关闭，这种自适应头灯功能只是会确保某些像素或照明部分实际上会指向任何逆行车辆，这些部分会关闭，而其他部分则保持亮着。这样的话，你的远光灯不会完全关闭，只会关闭部分区域。

Bloomberg NEF did a new study asking the question are EVs actually cleaner than their gas guzzling counterparts? The result? The answer is a resounding yes. I think most people already understand this data, but the takeaway, the EV life cycle emissions can be over 70% lower than gasoline and diesel vehicles. This charted total CO2 emissions of medium sized ice and BEVs produced in 2023 and used for about 155,000 miles. In the United States, the blue for vehicle manufacturing is somewhat comparable for EV and ice. Then EVs of course you have the section for battery manufacturing, but when it comes to the third component, the use and the green, clearly that's where EVs come out way ahead. I'm sharing because I think it's good to keep these recent reports handy. This will still come up often in conversation, people thinking that EVs aren't actually better for the environment, so it's good to have some data handy. Plus, Rohan Patel added this is quite conservative. The reality for Tesla vehicles is actually significantly better than this chart.

彭博新能源财经做了一项新研究，探讨电动汽车是否比其耗油汽车对手更清洁？结果如何？答案当然是肯定的。我认为大多数人已经理解了这些数据，但关键是电动汽车的整个生命周期排放可以比汽油和柴油车辆低70%以上。这个图表显示了2023年生产并行驶约155,000英里的中型冰汽车和电动汽车的总二氧化碳排放量。在美国，蓝色的车辆制造环节对于电动汽车和传统汽车来说有些相似。然后电动汽车当然有电池制造环节，但当涉及到第三个组成部分，即使用环节，绿色部分，很明显电动汽车遥遥领先。我分享这个是因为我认为保持这些最新报告随手可得很重要。这在谈话中仍然经常出现，人们认为电动汽车实际上对环境并不更好，所以有一些数据随手很有必要。此外，Rohan Patel补充说这个图表相当保守。特斯拉汽车的实际情况实际上比这个图表好得多。

Over the past 10 days or so, Bradford Ferguson from Rebellionair has been on a cross country road trip, mostly using Tesla's FSD version 12. I may or may not have met up with him for roughly an hour to do some testing of version 12, but I cannot confirm nor deny. My point, Bradford has a lot of miles under his belt in many different situations across the country. He said V12 has nearly perfected roundabouts, it's fixed nearly every issue in my neck of the woods in Carmel, Indiana, and some videos will be coming soon. I do have some thoughts of my own to share, but the time has not come just yet.

在过去的大约10天里，Rebellionair的Bradford Ferguson一直在进行一次横穿美国的公路之旅，主要使用特斯拉的FSD版本12。我可能与他会面大约一个小时来进行一些版本12的测试，但我无法确认也不否认。我的观点是，Bradford在全国各地的许多不同情况下开了很多英里。他说V12几乎完美地解决了环形交叉路口问题，它已经几乎解决了我所在的印第安纳州卡梅尔的所有问题，一些视频很快就会发布。我有一些自己的想法要分享，但现在还不是时候。

Bradford said V12 seems to have fixed 90% plus of the issues people were having with V11, but it's taken a step backwards by pulling out more often at the wrong time. I think this situation right here, going up a steep hill, no stop sign, your view is blocked to the left and the right. This would be the quintessential argument for Tesla needing a front bumper camera to actually complete full self-driving. Naturally, the easy counter argument for this one is that well, it just pulled off this situation without it. Add this to the list of conversations I would love to hear Elon and the engineers discussing, maybe while they're out demoing a version of FSD, I feel like once a quarter for 30 or 45 minutes, where we can ask questions and just hear them talk about those answers, we can dream right?

布拉德福德表示，V12似乎已经解决了人们在V11中遇到的90%以上的问题，但通过在错误的时候更频繁地退出来，它反而退步了。我认为这种情况，比如上陡坡，没有停车标志，视野被左右两侧阻挡。这是特斯拉需要前置保险杠摄像头来实现完全自动驾驶的典型论据。当然，对这一点的简单反马可能是，嗯，它刚刚在没有这种情况下成功解决了问题。把这个加入到我想听到埃隆和工程师们讨论的话题之中吧，也许当他们在演示FSD的版本时，每个季度可以花30到45分钟的时间讨论一次，我们可以提问，听他们谈论这些答案，我们可以做梦对吗？

And yes, I know last week we talked about how Tesla is most likely in the process of bringing a front bumper camera to all of its vehicles sometime in the next 12 to 18 months. But the word right now is that'll be for AutoPark and other features, it will not be for full self-driving. There are at least a few users that are now getting FSD version 12.3. At least so far, there are no new release notes that I've been able to find. Elon doing something he's always done very well, providing some hype said this is a big release should arguably be called version 13. One criticism I'm seeing Elon get a lot right now is that he also said version 12 was not going to be a beta. He could still technically be correct if a later dot release of version 12 loses the beta, then he will have been correct. The word on this release so far, it's for employees, but a few customer vehicles as well. Will this be the version that eventually goes to a wide release? Right now we don't know for sure.

是的，我知道上周我们谈到特斯拉很可能正在计划在接下来的12至18个月内为所有车辆配备前保险杠摄像头。但目前的消息是这将用于AutoPark和其他功能，而不是用于完全自动驾驶。至少有一些用户现在正在获得FSD版本12.3。目前为止，我还没有找到任何新的发布说明。埃隆一直擅长提供一些炒作，说这是一个重大发布，可以说应该被称为版本13。目前我看到埃隆受到很多批评的一点是，他也说版本12不会是一个测试版。如果版本12的后续发布失去了测试版，那么他在技术上仍然是正确的。目前关于这个版本的消息是，它是为员工准备的，但也有一些客户车辆会得到。这个版本最终会被广泛发布吗？目前我们还不能确定。

A Malaysian news source has confirmed Model Y deliveries are officially underway. The first batch of 80 units is being handed over to customers today. Rohan quote posted a customer taking delivery saying Southeast Asia will undoubtedly be a major place of growth over the coming years in battery storage and EV adoption. Looking at the rough size of some auto markets in Southeast Asia, these numbers are for 2022. Indonesian auto sales just over 1 million for the year. Thailand 849.4 thousand. Malaysia 720.7 thousand and Vietnam 404.6 thousand. It looks like Elon is headed to Gigabirlin for a visit as of tomorrow. The plant manager just said it could take some time until production fully restarts, but the most important step has been taken. That being the power supply is back on.

一家马来西亚新闻来源证实，Model Y的交付已正式开始。首批80辆车将在今天交付给客户。罗翰发表了一位客户接受交付的言论，称东南亚在未来几年将成为电池储存和电动汽车采用的重要增长地区。查看一些东南亚汽车市场的大致规模，这些数字是2022年的数据。印尼汽车销量超过100万辆。泰国为84.94万辆。马来西亚为72.07万辆，越南为40.46万辆。看来埃隆明天将前往吉卡比林参观。工厂经理刚刚表示，生产需要一段时间才能完全恢复，但最重要的一步已经迈出，即电力供应已经恢复。

The Tesla China weekly number came in at 13,200 comparing that to the same weekend quarter four. That number was 15.4 thousand. As we've been saying for most of the quarter though, comparing Q1 to Q4 is a fool's errand. So if you wanted to compare year over year, we're still 2.57% ahead of that pace. It was the best week of the year for Tesla as we continue to get further removed from the Chinese New Year. It was 3400 model threes and 9800 model wise. Starting Model Y deliveries in a new market like Malaysia is not going to boost Tesla's Q1 given that we only have a few weeks left, but heading into future quarters that will be a slight tailwind. Zooming out to the main Q1 number, we're still tracking to come in somewhat flat year over year, which is unchartered territory for Tesla.

特斯拉中国上周销售数量为13,200辆，与去年同期第四季度相比。那时销量为15.4万辆。虽然我们大部分时间都在说，将第一季度与第四季度进行比较是愚蠢的。因此，如果您想要进行年度比较，我们仍然领先于那个速度2.57%。这是特斯拉今年以来表现最佳的一周，因为我们继续逐渐脱离春节假期。其中有3400辆Model 3和9800辆Model Y。在新市场如马来西亚开始交付Model Y不太可能提升特斯拉的第一季度销量，因为我们只剩下几周的时间，但进入未来季度将成为一个轻微的推动力。总的来说，就第一季度的主要销量来看，我们仍然在努力保持与去年相比基本持平的水平，这对特斯拉来说是前所未有的领域。

Tesla is now offering LFP pack retrofits to some model three owners that require a battery replacement under warranty. This option is now available for those vehicles that were initially equipped with the 2170s, and this also includes some upgrades to the suspension to handle the heavier LFP battery owners that are opting for this LFP retrofit are required to sign an agreement that outlines the advantages and drawbacks of the LFP battery. If you're someone that would benefit from the ability to charge to 100% all the time, LFP could be for you.

特斯拉现在向一些需要在保修期内更换电池的Model 3车主提供LFP电池组改装服务。这个选项现在适用于最初配备2170型电池的车辆，还包括一些悬架升级，以应对更重的LFP电池。选择LFP电池改装的车主需要签署一份协议，概述LFP电池的优点和缺点。如果你希望能够始终充电到100%，那么LFP电池可能适合你。

This one's about two weeks old, but I thought it was pretty cool. Fremont was dubbed the happiest city in the United States. The survey said Fremont residents report high rates of life satisfaction and low rates of depression. Another factor contributing to Fremont's happiness level is the city's low separation and divorce rate at 8.9%. It's the lowest in the country. This was an interesting article from the Nikkei Asia talking about how Washington is now lasering in on the use of LiDAR technology by some of these Chinese companies. Basically, our government is concerned that Chinese vehicles using LiDAR can collect sensitive information. There's one Chinese company in particular that's under the most scrutiny right now. That's HSI, reason being they control 47% of the global market sales of LiDAR technology. HSI has also been accused by US companies, Velodyne and Alster of IP infringement. HSI was the first Chinese LiDAR company to list on a US stock exchange back in February 2023.

这篇文章已经两周了，但我觉得挺有意思的。弗里蒙特被称为美国最幸福的城市。调查显示，弗里蒙特居民报告的生活满意度很高，抑郁症发病率很低。另一个对弗里蒙特幸福指数有所贡献的因素是该市的离婚率和分居率很低，仅为8.9%。这是一篇来自《日经亚洲》的有趣文章，讨论了华盛顿如何现在严密监控一些中国公司使用激光雷达技术。基本上，我们政府担心使用激光雷达的中国车辆可能会收集敏感信息。特别受到关注的是一家中国公司，HSI，原因是他们控制了全球激光雷达技术市场销售的47%。HSI还被美国公司Velodyne和Alster指控侵犯知识产权。HSI是2023年2月首家在美国股票交易所上市的中国激光雷达公司。

HSI has denied any allegations that they're linked to the Chinese military saying, HSI LiDARs are for civilian use only. We don't sell our products to any military in any country, nor do we have ties of any kind to any military in any country. The company blamed the Pentagon's move on intense lobbying by LiDAR competitors who are, quote, years behind in product development and failing to deliver any product suitable for the automotive market. I must say, I would be curious to hear what our government would deem as sensitive data that these LiDARs could actually gain access to. Other than location coordinates which are somewhat public already, what are we talking about here?

HSI否认了与中国军方有关联的任何指控，并表示，HSI激光雷达只用于民用。我们不向任何国家的军队销售产品，也与任何国家的军队没有任何联系。公司指责五角大楼的行动是由于激光雷达竞争对手进行了激烈的游说，这些竞争对手在产品开发上远远落后，无法提供适用于汽车市场的任何产品。我必须说，我很想知道我们的政府会认为这些激光雷达实际上可以获得什么敏感数据。除了位置坐标，这些信息在一定程度上已经公开，我们还在谈论什么呢？

More importantly though, from a competitive standpoint, think about how pretty much all of the industry is reliant on LiDAR technology in their efforts for solving autonomy, outside of maybe Tesla, Comma AI and a few others. There are no guarantees anything happens from this heightened scrutiny. However, if there are more regulations and restrictions in place on what LiDAR sensors companies can actually use in the United States, that of course puts companies in a tough competitive spot, especially if any performance gap between Chinese LiDAR and American LiDAR would actually persist into the future.

然而更重要的是，从竞争的角度来看，想想几乎整个行业在解决自主性方面都依赖于激光雷达技术，除了特斯拉、Comma AI和其他一些公司。并不能保证这种加剧的审查会带来任何结果。然而，如果美国对激光雷达传感器公司实际使用的限制和规定更多，这当然会让公司面临艰难的竞争环境，尤其是如果中国激光雷达和美国激光雷达之间的性能差距真的会持续下去。

In China, all eyes are going to be on Xiaomi, they're well known for making smartphones, but now they're trying their hand at making electric vehicles. They just announced they're going to offer their SU-7 series for purchase on March 28th and 29 cities without disclosing the price. Their co-founder has said the company's EV will not be a budget proposition. He said they're intending the SU-7 to rival Porsche's Ticon Turbo in terms of performance and Tesla's Model S in technology features, a pretty high bar. This is not a sponsored episode, but just to show you I do actually use ground news, this Tesla item today, 65 different outlets reporting on this one topic.

中国将把目光投向小米，他们以生产智能手机而闻名，但现在正在尝试生产电动汽车。他们刚刚宣布将于3月28日在29个城市推出他们的SU-7系列，并未透露价格。他们的联合创始人表示，公司的电动汽车并非预算产品。他说他们打算让SU-7在性能上与保时捷Ticon Turbo相媲美，在技术特点上与特斯拉Model S相媲美，这是一个相当高的标准。这不是一个赞助的节目，只是想向您展示我实际使用ground news，今天关于特斯拉的报道有65个不同的媒体。

The IIHS rolled out a new safety rating system for partially automated driving systems, and let's just say this first round of testing did not go well for anybody. The scores up for grabs, good, acceptable, marginal, or poor. None of the automated systems, there were 14 of the industry leaders that were tested, landed an overall rating of good, zero. Of the 14 systems rated, 11 were found to be poor, including Tesla's autopilot and FSD. The only system that performed worse than Tesla's was Volvo's Pilot Assist. Let me make the distinction here, this new testing is not for the actual capability of these ADAS systems, it's only for the car's ability to actually monitor the driver while using these ADAS systems.

IIHS推出了一个针对部分自动驾驶系统的全新安全评级系统，可以说这一轮测试对任何人都不是好消息。评分分为优秀、合格、一般和差。在测试的14个行业领先公司中，没有一个自动化系统获得了优秀的整体评分。在评定的14个系统中，有11个被评为差，其中包括特斯拉的自动驾驶系统和FSD。唯一表现比特斯拉更差的系统是沃尔沃的Pilot Assist。让我在这里做出区分，这次新的测试并不是针对这些ADAS系统的实际功能，而仅仅是针对车辆在使用这些ADAS系统时对驾驶员进行监控的能力。

The whole industry right now is just a little goofy, you have these automakers trying to offer features like hands off the wheel, the ability to read a book or do whatever on the highway, yet now we have the IIHS saying no no, you need more cameras, more driver monitoring to make sure that they're paying even more attention. I just happen to be in the camp right now that no matter what system you're using at this point, if you're behind the wheel of the vehicle, you should always be paying attention. The top rated system was from Lexus, their teammate with advanced drive, it got a rating of acceptable. The number two spot went to GM's Super Cruise. The IIHS did say the two Tesla systems that tested used software that preceded the company's latest update from December.

整个汽车行业现在有点儿荒谬，你会发现一些汽车制造商试图提供一些功能，比如无需双手操控方向盘，在高速公路上可以阅读书籍或做其他事情，但现在我们有IIHS说不行，你需要更多的摄像头、更多的驾驶员监控，以确保他们集中更多注意力。我现在认为，无论您使用什么系统，只要您在车辆驾驶座位上，都应该始终保持专注。最受好评的系统来自雷克萨斯，他们配备了先进的驾驶辅助系统，获得了可接受的评级。第二名属于通用汽车的超级巡航系统。IIHS确实表示，两个测试的特斯拉系统使用的软件是在公司去年12月之前的更新之前。

So contrary to what many of these headlines would have you believe, this is not just Tesla being singled out. It's a new rating system, there will definitely be back and forth in the weeks and months ahead between the automakers and the IIHS, but this could result in more of a nag situation for all automakers. The IIHS president said most of them don't include adequate measures to prevent misuse and keep drivers from losing focus on what's happening on the road. He also said they're trying to fill a regulatory void left by inaction on the systems from NHTSA.

与许多头条报道所声称的相反，这并不只是特斯拉被单独指责。这是一个新的评级系统，在未来几周甚至几个月内，汽车制造商和IIHS之间肯定会有来回交流，但这可能导致对所有汽车制造商都会有更多的麻烦。 IIHS总裁表示，大多数汽车制造商的系统都没有足够的措施来防止滥用，并保持司机不会在路上失去对发生事情的注意力。他还表示，他们正试图填补由于NHTSA对这些系统的不作为而留下的监管空白。

He said NHTSA needs to do more to set standards for the systems which are not able to drive themselves. They said the systems should be able to see if a driver's head or eyes are not directed on the road and whether their hands are on the wheel or ready to grab it if necessary. If a system does not see a driver's eyes on the road or hands aren't ready to steer, there should be audible and visual alerts within 10 seconds. Before 20 seconds, the system should add a third alert or start an emergency procedure to slow down the vehicle. None of the 14 systems met all the driver monitoring requirements in the test, but fords came close.

他表示，国家公路交通安全管理局需要更多地制定标准，针对那些无法自动驾驶的系统。他们认为系统应该能够检测司机的头部或眼睛是否朝向道路，以及他们的双手是否放在方向盘上或者准备随时抓住它。如果系统没有检测到司机的眼睛在路上或者双手未做好操控准备，应该在10秒内发出听觉和视觉警报。在20秒内，系统应该添加第三个警报或者启动紧急程序来减缓车辆速度。在测试中，没有一个系统完全符合所有的驾驶员监测要求，但福特表现接近。

Just months ahead of Lucid Gravity production, Lucid is at risk of losing the trademark for the name Gravity. Remember that EV charging company we just talked about? They launched their flagship indoor EV charging site Gravity? They're claiming in a petition that Lucid's use of the Gravity name could confuse consumers since Gravity Inc uses it for EV charging and has used it in the past to operate a fleet of EV taxis. It should be noted though this pilot program by Gravity was actually ended in 2023. Lucid is arguing that company Gravity does not currently operate in EV Fleet and argues consumers would not be confused by the two different uses of the Gravity name. Lucid also filed a counterclaim with the purpose of trying to force Gravity Inc to give up its trademark because it abandoned the fleet business. Just another headache for Lucid in something that could become somewhat costly at a time when it needs to save every dollar it can.

就在露斯达克快要生产“露丝达克引力”时，露斯达克有失去“引力”商标的风险。还记得我们刚谈过的那家电动汽车充电公司吗？他们推出了他们的旗舰室内电动汽车充电站“引力”。他们在一份请愿书中声称，露斯达克使用“引力”这个名称可能会让消费者感到困惑，因为引力公司用它来进行电动汽车充电，并且过去还曾用来运营一队电动出租车。值得一提的是，引力公司的这个试点计划实际上在2023年就结束了。露斯达克辩称，引力公司目前并未经营电动车队业务，并认为消费者不会因引用“引力”这一名称而感到困惑。另外，露斯达克还提起反诉，试图强迫引力公司放弃其商标，因为他们放弃了车队业务。这对露斯达克来说是又一个令人头疼的问题，而这在他们需要节省每一分钱的时候可能会变得牵扯高额成本。

As it turns out, some Georgia senators are not happy that Rivian apparently blindsided them with their decision to pause construction of their new factory. Some members of a Senate subcommittee explored ways on Monday to potentially punish Rivian. Some are urging a halt to infrastructure projects underway until Rivian starts construction. One senator called Rivian's decision completely irresponsible. If they come back to Georgia and start making good on their promises, I'll be the one surprised. At the time of the deal, this was Georgia's largest ever jobs deal. But the company does have several years before it would violate its incentives agreement with the state. Until they tell us they can't live up to that commitment or they breach their contract, then we are under obligation to allow them to live up to their commitment. Seems like maybe this was more of a case of some senators having a little tantrum.

事实证明，一些乔治亚州参议员对Rivian似乎擅自决定暂停新工厂建设感到不满。一些参议员周一研究了可能惩罚Rivian的方法。有些人主张在Rivian开始建设之前暂停进行中的基础设施项目。一位参议员称Rivian的决定完全不负责任。如果他们回到乔治亚并开始履行承诺，我会感到很惊讶。在达成交易时，这是乔治亚州有史以来规模最大的就业协议。但该公司在违反与州政府的激励协议之前还有几年的时间。在他们告诉我们他们无法履行承诺或违反合同之前，我们有义务让他们履行承诺。似乎这可能是一些参议员发脾气的情况。

Mike Bell was just interviewed. He worked at Apple for 17 years. He worked on the development of multiple different products, one of which was the iPhone and Apple TV. Most recently though, he's Lucid's VP of digital. He said the biggest thing I see is that traditional automotive manufacturers don't seem to understand you can't apply old ways of doing things to this new software defined vehicle paradigm. You have to do most of the stuff in house, writing a spec, giving it to a third party, waiting six months, then slapping together the piece you get, you're gonna end up with something pretty mediocre against what happens if you bring the talent in house to own everything yourself. This, the automotive industry is now a systems play, the software and the hardware, the mechanics and the dynamics, they're all one thing. A lot of people are not willing to make that leap and adopt this new way of doing things. I think the auto industry needs to adopt a little more of the Silicon Valley mindset. We fix things in days not weeks or weeks not months. The thing that will propel the software defined vehicle forward is to take advantage of these huge leaps in technologies and capabilities. It's not just 10% better every year, it's a dramatic leap. Finally, people don't understand the power of software defined vehicles where the functionality and behavior of the vehicle can be changed through software. I totally agree with that final sentiment that I think your average consumer still does not know how much better cars can get with time from software updates. I'm sure most of you picked up on it, but everything he was saying was effectively describing what Tesla does incredibly well.

迈克·贝尔刚刚接受了采访。他在苹果工作了17年。他参与开发了多种不同的产品，其中之一就是iPhone和Apple TV。最近，他担任了Lucid的数字副总裁。他表示，我看到的最大问题是传统汽车制造商似乎不明白，不能将老旧的做事方式应用于这个全新的软件定义车辆范式中。你必须大部分工作都在公司内部完成，编写规格，交给第三方，等待六个月，然后将所得的部件拼凑在一起，否则你最终得到的东西可能相当平庸，远不如如果让公司内部的人来拥有和掌控一切。 汽车行业现在是一个系统的游戏，软件和硬件，机械和动力学，它们都是一个整体。很多人不愿意跨越这个鸿沟，采纳这种全新的做事方式。我认为汽车行业需要采纳更多硅谷的思维方式。我们在几天内而不是几周内或几周内而不是几个月内解决问题。推动软件定义车辆向前发展的关键是充分利用这些技术和能力的巨大飞跃。每年不仅仅是提升10%，而是一次剧烈的飞跃。最后，人们并不了解软件定义车辆的力量，通过软件可以改变车辆的功能和行为。我完全同意这个最后的观点，我认为普通消费者仍然不知道通过软件更新汽车可以获得多么大的提升。我相信你们大多数人都注意到了，但是他所描述的一切实际上都非常类似于特斯拉所擅长的做的。

This is also not sponsored at all just any electrified community member Vashow who does some wood burnings in his big Tesla fan. He has all kinds of different Tesla designed items on his Etsy store and I just wanted you guys to know he is open to doing custom work too if you had your own design that you wanted to have him turn into some art. He's a friend of the channel, I think he does cool work and I wanted to give him a shout out. I'll have his store linked below if you're interested. You've heard me say on the channel now for a long time, EVs are sadly going to be politicized more and more as we lead up to the election. I just want you guys to know if I don't share an article like this one today, some of those comments that Trump had about EVs that were no surprise they were negative. I promise you I am not doing it from any sort of political angle, it's just really not news. At this point we know each candidate's stance and both sides are going to play the vote getting game, it's just how things work. If we learn something new or a policy might change, we'll absolutely cover it, but most of this stuff is just noise.

这也全然没有赞助，只是电气化社区成员Vashow，在他的特斯拉爱好者大群中进行一些木燃烧工艺。他在Etsy商店上销售各种不同设计的特斯拉产品，我只是想让你们知道，他也欢迎定制工作，如果你有自己想要让他制作成艺术品的设计。他是本频道的朋友，我认为他的作品很酷，所以想给他点赞。如果你有兴趣，我会在下方链接他的店铺。你已经在频道上听过我说很久了，电动车不幸地会在选举之前越来越被政治化。我只是想让你们知道，如果我今天不分享这篇文章，一些关于特朗普对电动车的评论是不会让人意外的负面评论。我向你们保证，我绝对不是出于任何政治角度，这真的不算是新闻。到目前为止，我们都知道每位候选人的立场，双方都在争取选票，这就是事物运转的方式。如果我们了解到新的信息或政策有所改变，我们绝对会报道，但大部分这些都只是噪音。

This time around Sawyer put together a separate petition different than the one we shared a couple weeks back. Same topic though, for NHTSA to stop requiring paper recall letters and classifying OTA updates as recalls. If you want to sign this one too, it can't hurt, it'll be below. We have some executives at BYD saying there are some issues including a weak market demand, too high of pricing, quality control, and internal tension over how quickly BYD should seek to grab market share in Europe. They said the company's inexperience showed in some problems that have arisen like handling of mold in cars and the piling up of thousands of vehicles in European warehouses. The exec said the company was unlikely to achieve the leadership's internal target of selling 400,000 cars outside of China this year compared with the 242.8,000 it sold last year. In Europe, BYD sold around 16,000 vehicles in 2023, but the word is BYD has been disputing that figure without providing a different one. One internal concern at BYD involves the number of fixes or repairs that passenger car models exported from China require before they can be sold to consumers. Post-import touch-ups are common in the auto industry, but BYD models often require more extensive fixes than most.

这一次索耶组织了一份与我们几周前分享的不同的请愿书。不过，主题相同，请求NHTSA停止要求纸质召回信，并将OTA更新分类为召回。如果你也想签署这份请愿书，不妨试试，下面会有链接。贝迪汽车的一些高管表示存在一些问题，包括市场需求疲软、定价过高、质量控制问题，以及内部对贝迪在欧洲市场份额争夺速度的紧张关系。他们表示，公司的一些经验不足在一些问题上表现出来，比如汽车模具的处理，以及欧洲仓库中成千上万辆车的滞留。这位高管表示，相比去年销售了242.8万辆车，今年公司很可能无法达到对外销售40万辆车的内部目标。在欧洲，贝迪在2023年销售了约1.6万辆车，但据说贝迪对这一数字提出了异议，却没有提供其他数据。贝迪内部的一个关注点是出口自中国的乘用车模型在销售给消费者之前需要进行的修复或返修次数。在汽车行业中，事后维修是很常见的，但贝迪的车型通常需要比大多数车型更多的广泛维修。

This in part due to what they see as the company's inexperience in handling long-distance logistics. There are other quality complaints when it comes to things like paint and plastics. They also highlighted how BYD vehicles can cost significantly more overseas than they do in China. One example, the Addo 3 costs $41,000 in Germany. Compare that to what it costs in China which is less than $20,000. That's more than twice the price. Finally, at the end of last year, more than 10,000 BYD passenger cars were waiting in warehouses in Europe and the certificates authorizing them to be sold in the EU are set to expire soon meaning it may not be possible to sell them in Europe. Honestly though, outside of the much higher cost in Europe, I think a lot of these problems could just be some growing pains for BYD as they try something they really haven't done in volume. I would imagine most of these issues will be fixed with time, but just keep in mind, it's not just Tesla that may be seeing weaker pockets of demand. We just learned the price for the Hyundai IONIQ 5N, their performance variant, it's going to start at $66.1,000. They're touting a 0-60 of 3.25 seconds with launch control and their boost function, the Model Y performance is 3.5 seconds. And it also costs about $14,000 less and that's before the tax credit. Checking in on Tesla stock valuation metrics, just looking at the 2024 forward PE that sits at about 45. Gary Black shared this from the Bloomberg terminal, just showing Tesla's historical forward PE so you can get a sense of where 45 actually falls.

部分原因是他们认为该公司在处理远程物流方面缺乏经验。在涉及涂料和塑料等方面也有其他质量投诉。他们还指出，比亚迪的车辆在海外的成本显著高于在中国的成本。举个例子，Addo 3在德国售价为41,000美元。相比之下，中国的售价不到20,000美元。这个价格是原价的两倍多。最后，在去年年底，欧洲仓库中有超过10,000辆比亚迪乘用车等待销售，而欧盟授权销售的证书即将到期，意味着可能无法在欧洲销售。不过，除了在欧洲成本更高之外，我认为很多问题只是比亚迪在大规模尝试他们从未做过的事情时遇到的一些成长烦恼。我想这些问题大部分会随着时间解决，但请记住，可能不只是特斯拉在看到需求疲软。我们刚刚得知现代IONIQ 5N的价格，他们的性能变体，起价为66.1万美元。他们宣传的0-60加速时间为3.25秒，配备了启动控制和增压功能，而Model Y性能款为3.5秒。而且成本还要少大约14,000美元，这还未包含税收抵扣。查看特斯拉股票估值指标时，只看2024年的前PE，约为45。Gary Black通过彭博终端分享了这一点，展示了特斯拉历史上的前PE，让您了解45实际上处于何种位置。

The lowest this metric has been over the past few years, it dipped briefly below 20 and the highest it was up over 180 back toward the end of 2020. Personally though, I'd rather look at the peg ratio, so if we look at the far column on the right, that's for an implied 10% growth in Tesla's earnings, that would give Tesla using its forward PE, a peg of 4.52. I'm showing you this because using these traditional metrics that yes, Wall Street does still at least look at. From this standpoint alone, you can still argue Tesla stock is overvalued. I have a few of these cells grayed out because Tesla's Q4 gap number had that one-time item that was over $5 billion. Thus, that was a one-time positive impact that has artificially inflated Tesla's gap numbers for Q4. Tesla stock closed the day at $177.54 down 0.13%, while the Nasdaq was up 1.54%. It was a lower volume day for Tesla trading about 14 million shares below the average 30-day volume. What I'm about to say is just for fun, but I do think relatively speaking, Tesla stock has held up fairly well given how negative the sentiment is and how significantly Wall Street has cut its expectations for Tesla's earnings.

这个指标在过去几年中的最低点短暂低于20，最高点则在2020年末超过180。不过，个人而言，我更愿意看市盈率PEG比值，所以如果我们看右边的远端列，那是针对特斯拉盈利增长10%的预测，这将使特斯拉使用前瞻性市盈率的PEG比值达到4.52。我向你展示这个是因为使用这些传统指标（沃尔街至少还在关注）仍然可以认为特斯拉股票被高估了。我把其中一些单元格变灰是因为特斯拉第四季的盈利中有一次性项目超过了50亿美元。因此，这是一个一次性正面影响，已经人为地膨胀了特斯拉第四季的盈利数字。特斯拉股票收盘价为177.54美元，下跌0.13%，而纳斯达克上涨了1.54%。这是特斯拉交易量较低的一天，大约1400万股，低于平均30天交易量。我接下来要说的只是玩笑，但相对而言，考虑到市场情绪如此负面，以及华尔街大幅削减了对特斯拉盈利的预期，特斯拉股票表现相当不错。

I would say though, Tesla is still showing a lot of weakness and if Q1 rolls around and the numbers are worse than expected and then Tesla's margins surprise on the downside, there's not a lot of support below this level we've been at for a few days around $175. Many of you will remember the last time we fell through $175 and broke through this downward channel. That's when we quickly went all the way down to $100. Don't go making any buy or sell decisions off of this. I'm just saying I personally would be prepared for some more downside in the weeks and months ahead.

我认为，特斯拉仍然表现出很多弱点，如果第一季度过去，数据比预期的更糟糕，然后特斯拉的利润率出现意外下降，那么在我们在大约175美元附近停留了几天后，这个水平下方的支持就不多了。许多人可能还记得我们上次跌破175美元并突破这个下行通道的情况。那时，我们迅速跌至100美元。不要根据这一点做任何买入或卖出决定。我只是想说，我个人认为在未来几周和几个月里要做好应对更多下跌的准备。

Robin Denholm did file a Form 144 showing that she unloaded over $16 million of Tesla. But if you've been following along, you may remember late last year Robin Denholm actually set this plan in place. Her insider share trading plan set up in October allowed her the potential to sell up to 281.1k shares. Her plan is set to expire on August 16th. I would also note she's held some of those shares for over 6 years.

Robin Denholm提交了一份144表格，显示她抛售了价值超过1600万美元的特斯拉股票。但是如果你一直在关注的话，你可能会记得去年年底罗宾·德霍姆实际上已经制定了这个计划。她在去年十月制定的内幕交易计划允许她最多出售281.1万股股票。她的计划将在8月16日到期。我还要注意的是，她已经持有其中一部分股票超过6年了。

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