Tesla's "Extraordinary Break" / Rivian's New EV's / Panasonic's 4680's ⚡️

Welcome to electrified. It's your host Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patrons, Steven S. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Apologies for the late, late upload today was an unexpectedly crazy day at the Loomis household. Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner uploaded a new video today. If you're not familiar, they're both very well known in the VC space. In the first part of this video, they were talking about Tesla's FSD12. These guys have extensive experience investing in companies. They spend a lot of time in the AI realm. So, it's worth hearing what they had to say. There's this principle known as Occam's razor, which has been around forever in science. But the simplified version of it is a simpler approach is much more likely to be the optimal approach. And when I fully understood what they had done here, it seems to me this approach has a much better chance of going all the way and of being successful. And certainly of being maintainable and reasonable, it's way more elegant.

欢迎来到《电动化》节目。我是您的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。快速致谢最新的赞助人史蒂文·S。感谢您选择支持本频道。对于今天上传有些晚了，非常抱歉，今天在卢米斯家庭发生了一些出乎意料的疯狂事件。比尔·格利和布拉德·格斯特纳今天上传了一个新视频。如果您不熟悉他们，他们在风险投资领域都非常知名。在这个视频的第一部分，他们在谈论特斯拉的FSD12。这些人在投资公司方面经验丰富，他们花了很多时间在人工智能领域。所以，值得听听他们的看法。有一个众所周知的原则叫奥卡姆剃刀，它在科学界已经存在很久了。但简化版本的意思是，更简单的方法更有可能是最佳方法。当我完全理解了他们在这里所做的事情时，我觉得这种方法更有可能成功并走得更远。当然，更能够被保持和合理，更加优雅。

He's referring to how Tesla got rid of over 300,000 lines of that heuristic manual code. Now in this new model, it's pixels in. So the model itself has no code. It doesn't know this is a stoplight per se. In fact, they just watched the driver's behavior. So the driver's behavior is actually the label. It says when we see pixels like this on the screen, here's how the model should behave, which I thought is just an extraordinary break. And I don't think there's a deep appreciation for the fact that, you know, again, because we've had 11 versions of what came before it, those were just slightly better patchwork models. In fact, I think what, what, you know, we learned was that the rate of improvement of this is order of magnitude five to 10 X better per month as a model versus the rate of improvement of those prior systems. And once again, the audacity to throw out the whole old thing and put a new thing in is just crazy.

他指的是特斯拉如何消除了超过30万行启发式手动代码。现在，在这个新模型中，它是基于像素的。因此，模型本身没有任何代码。它不知道这是一个交通信号灯。实际上，他们只观察了驾驶员的行为。因此，驾驶员的行为实际上是标签。它说当我们在屏幕上看到这样的像素时，模型应该如何行事，我认为这只是一个非凡的突破。我认为人们并没有真正欣赏到，你知道，因为我们之前有11个版本，那些只是稍微好一点的拼凑模型。实际上，我认为我们学到的是，这种改进的速度相比之前系统每个月提高了5到10倍。再次，大胆地扔掉整个旧东西，用新东西代替，这真是疯狂。

Now think about this from a Tesla perspective. Why do they want to drive even more adoption of FSD? Well, you get a lot more information and data about disengagements and all these other things. So that data then, you know, continues to turn the flywheel. So my guess is that Tesla seeing this meaningful improvement is going to focus on penetration. My guess is that they want to get a lot more people trying the product and they're going to play around with price. Why not? Right? Maybe 100 bucks a month is the right, you know, intersection between adoption or penetration and price. But again, I think that all of these things are occurring at an accelerating rate at Tesla. And when I look around, you know, I still hear people saying way more is worth 50 or 60 billion bucks, but you could be in a situation on that business where it just is, you know, gets passed really quickly. And they have a hard time structurally of catching up.

现在从特斯拉的角度来思考一下。为什么他们想要推动FSD的更多采用？嗯，这样他们就可以得到更多关于撤离和其他方面的信息和数据。因此，这些数据会继续推动飞轮。所以我猜测，特斯拉看到这种有意义的改善后，将会专注于渗透率。我猜他们想要让更多人尝试这款产品，并可能会尝试调整价格。为什么不呢？对吧？也许每月100美元是采用或渗透率和价格之间的正确交汇点。但我认为，所有这些事情在特斯拉这里都在以加速的速度发生。当我四处看看时，我仍然听到人们说蔚然值得五六百亿美元，但在那个企业上，你可能会迅速被超越，而结构性地赶不上的困难。

You know, Tesla still has some engineering intervention along the way. But I think they're, I think the engineering team working on this at Tesla is about one tenth the size of the team's at Cruz. Well, I mean, that gets back to, you know, this, the simplicity point, right? Like the this approach is removes so much complexity that you should be able to do it with less people. And and and the fact that you can have something better with less people is is really powerful. Really powerful indeed. The world will find out soon enough. The full video will be linked below. Yesterday, we talked about that lobby group that Tesla was upset with in Australia fast forward to today. And Tesla has announced at the end of this year, they will be leaving that group. Tesla wrote a seven page letter voicing their frustrations. We learned that Tesla pointed out while the FCAI projects a dramatic price hike for gas powered vehicles. It also falsely claimed Tesla's EVs would see significant price reductions as much as 25%, which Tesla said can lead consumers to not buying a Tesla with the belief that they'll be cheaper in the future. Simply put, the federal chamber of automotive industries has been falsely claiming that EV prices will go way down.

你知道，特斯拉在整个过程中仍然有一些工程干预。但我认为，特斯拉的工程团队大约只有克鲁斯团队的十分之一大小。我是说，这又回到了，你知道，这种简单性的观点，对吧？就像这种方法去除了很多复杂性，所以你应该能够用更少的人做到这一点。事实上，你可以用更少的人做出更好的东西非常强大。确实非常强大。世界很快就会了解到的。完整视频将在下面链接。昨天，我们谈到了特斯拉在澳大利亚对一家游说团体感到不满，快进到今天。特斯拉宣布在今年年底将离开该团体。特斯拉写了一封七页的信表达他们的沮丧之情。我们了解到，特斯拉指出，尽管澳大利亚联邦汽车工业协会预测汽油车价格会大幅上涨，但他们却错误地声称特斯拉的电动车价格将会大幅降低，多达25%，这个说法可能导致消费者认为特斯拉会更便宜，从而不购买特斯拉。简言之，澳大利亚联邦汽车工业协会一直在错误地声称电动汽车的价格将大幅下降。

Gas prices will go way up. All thanks to new clean car policies from the Australian government. As consumers hear that information, they of course would be much more likely to quickly buy a gas car. In the letter, Tesla said it's also concerned it's inappropriate for the FCAI to foreshadow or coordinate whether and how competitor brands implement price changes in response to environmental regulations like the NVS. The word is Polestar is considering leaving the FCAI as well. What do you know, as I was recording, it turns out Polestar is leaving the FCAI as well, saying that we cannot support it. Polestar said the FCAI campaign driven largely by Japanese car makers led by Toyota, who would have thunk it, is intolerable. With transport emissions forecast to be Australia's largest source of emission by 2030, Australia has a clear role to play and must catch up with the rest of the developed world.

汽油价格将大幅上涨，这要归功于澳大利亚政府出台的新清洁汽车政策。消费者听到这一消息后，他们当然会更有可能迅速购买一辆汽油车。在信中，特斯拉表示，对于澳大利亚汽车工业协会提前预告或协调竞争对手品牌如何根据环境法规（如《国家燃效法》）实施价格调整感到不妥。听说极星也在考虑退出汽协。就在我录制时，极星也决定退出汽协，表示我们无法支持它。极星说，由丰田牵头的主要由日本汽车制造商推动的汽协活动是不可容忍的。预计到2030年，交通排放将成为澳大利亚最大的排放源，澳大利亚有明确的角色要扮演，必须赶上其他发达国家的步伐。

Such a campaign is not aligned with Polestar's focus and we cannot support it. The FCAI has not released the full modeling underpinning its assertion to the general public or to its own members. Rather, it appears the FCAI has cherry-picked what it thinks will progress the position of only some members. It should come as no surprise that the FCAI represents car manufacturers in Australia and its board is made up of the bosses of the leading car brands in Australia which make gas vehicles. There are other industry players on Tesla's side here, the Electric Vehicle Council chief said the idea that any model would shoot up by any significant amount can only be supported if you base your modeling on completely unrealistic assumptions, which is exactly what we see the FCAI has been doing. That an industry body would openly canvas their members increasing prices in a coordination manner is a clear red flag. Honestly, it's the exact same thing we're seeing in the United States, the legacy auto industry pushing back against governmental regulations trying to reduce car emissions. Tesla is asking the FCAI to correct all of its claims and they've also called upon the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to investigate their claims.

这样的活动与Polestar的重点不符，我们无法支持。FCAI尚未向公众或其会员发布支持其说法的完整建模。相反，看起来FCAI已经挑选了它认为只会推进某些成员立场的部分内容。FCAI代表澳大利亚汽车制造商，其董事会由澳大利亚主要汽车品牌的老板组成，这些品牌生产汽油车。在特斯拉这边还有其他行业参与者，电动汽车委员会主席表示，任何型号的价格大幅上涨只有在您基于完全不切实际的假设进行建模时才能得到支持，这正是我们看到FCAI一直在做的事情。一个行业组织公开讨论他们的成员以协调方式增加价格是一个明显的警告信号。老实说，这与我们在美国看到的情况完全一样，传统汽车行业在抵制政府试图减少汽车排放的法规。特斯拉要求FCAI纠正其所有声明，并已要求澳大利亚竞争和消费者委员会调查他们的说法。

Here's some very unfortunate news, the Federal Trade Commission just reported that for 2023, their database took in 2.6 million reports of fraud and 1 million reports of identity theft. In 2023 alone, 2.7 billion dollars was lost to imposter scams. And guys, just look at the trend, this stuff is sadly increasingly becoming more common. The silver lining, there is something we can do to dramatically reduce our chances of becoming a statistic. That's why I've partnered with Delete Me, the sponsor of this video. Delete Me sweeps all of the data brokers gathering and selling your personal data and deletes it from the web, saving you tons of hours and annoying phone calls and follow-ups. I just got an updated report from my personal privacy advisor and Delete Me has now reviewed over 4,000 listings, saving me over 30 hours of work and has removed 209 listings with my personal info since September last year. Look at this, all of these different data brokers buying and selling our information.

这里有一些非常不幸的消息，联邦贸易委员会刚刚报告称，截至2023年，他们的数据库收到了260万起欺诈报告和100万起身份盗窃报告。仅在2023年，2.7亿美元因冒名诈骗而损失了。而且，大家看看这个趋势，这些事情不幸地变得越来越普遍。好消息是，我们可以采取一些措施来极大减少成为统计数据的可能性。这就是为什么我与本视频的赞助商Delete Me合作。Delete Me清理所有收集和出售您个人数据的数据经纪人，并将其从网络中删除，帮助您节省大量时间，避免烦人的电话和跟进。我刚刚从我的个人隐私顾问那里得到了最新报告，Delete Me现在已经审查了4000多个列表，为我节省了30个小时的工作时间，并自去年9月以来删除了209个包含我的个人信息的列表。看看这些，所有这些不同的数据经纪人在买卖我们的信息。

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Delete Me 真酷的地方在于他们会告诉你删除过程对于某些数据经纪人正在进行中，如果你继续滚动下去，你会看到所有清洁的地方。所以，如果你想尽力避免诈骗电话，网络钓鱼和身份盗窃，成为统计数字，你可以前往 joindeleteme.com/electrified 获取使用我的代码 electrified 20% 的折扣。链接将在下面，一如既往，感谢你考虑支持 electrified。这位用户 Jake 在 X 上说他在 cyber truck 上开 AK-47。其中一颗子弹确实穿透了 cyber truck 的后部分。我想这是一个很好的机会提醒大家，车门实际上大约有 1.8 毫米厚，但其他车身部分只有 1.4 毫米厚。因此，实际上只有车门是防弹的，防弹的，不管你想怎么说。不过需要注意的是，那颗击穿 cyber truck 后部的子弹实际上没有进入金库。

We talked earlier this week that Tesla might need to make up some sales in newer global markets if things continue to slow down in China and the EU. This will help at least a little bit. We have Model Y deliveries set to go to customers beginning next week. Malaysia was actually one of the first countries in the world to get the Model 3 Plus deliveries have been going on there now for a few months. Now the Model Y in all three different variants will join the party. The Malaysian auto industry did just under 800,000 units in 2023.

我们本周早些时候讨论过，如果中国和欧盟市场继续放缓，特斯拉可能需要在新兴全球市场补充一些销量。这至少会有所帮助。我们计划从下周开始向客户交付Model Y。马来西亚实际上是世界上最早获得Model 3 Plus交付的国家之一，现在已经有几个月的时间了。现在，Model Y的三个不同版本也将加入其中。2023年，马来西亚汽车工业生产量刚好不到80万辆。

After months of investigation, the European Commission is saying it found evidence that China has been unfairly subsidizing the EVs it exports to Europe. Possible remedies on the table include retroactive tariffs on Chinese EVs. Unfortunately, they did not explain how these retroactive tariffs might work, but I have a feeling that's going to raise some problems. Europe may now be enforcing its own tariffs. While this probe will continue through November, the EU could impose provisional duties as early as July. The Commission also said it would require customs registrations of Chinese EV imports starting on Thursday, meaning they could be hit by retroactive tariffs from that point if the EU's trade investigation later concludes they're receiving unfair subsidies.

经过数月的调查，欧洲委员会表示发现了证据表明中国一直在对出口到欧洲的电动汽车进行不公平补贴。可能的解决方案包括对中国电动汽车征收追溯性关税。不幸的是，他们没有解释这些追溯性关税可能如何运作，但我觉得这可能会引发一些问题。欧洲现在可能会实施自己的关税。尽管这一调查将持续到11月，但欧盟可能会在7月早些时候征收临时关税。委员会还表示，从周四开始将要求对中国电动汽车进口进行海关登记，这意味着如果欧盟的贸易调查最终得出结论认为它们获得了不公平补贴，那么从那时起可能会受到追溯性关税的影响。

But we just heard that the Commission does think they're receiving unfair subsidies. For now, the Commission said it does not have an idea of what the tally of retroactive tariffs might be. This is another one. It's pretty plain to see what's going on here. Europe is concerned for and looking out for its homegrown automakers. They're in a tough EV transition right now. Most of them haven't really laid out solid plans for the future. Now the Chinese are looking to flood that market with lower price TVs. So the European Commission is saying that, hey, the Chinese government is unfairly giving its homegrown automakers too many subsidies. It would effectively be like if our government started giving Tesla money for producing the Model Y at Gigatexas and then Tesla went ahead and started exporting that into Europe. Clearly, in the short term, the consumer would win, but the question becomes what are the long-term ramifications for the auto industry?

但我们刚刚听说，欧盟委员会认为他们正接受不公平的补贴。目前，委员会表示他们不知道追溯性关税的总计可能是多少。这是另一个问题。很明显可以看出这里发生了什么。欧洲对本土汽车制造商表示关注并保护。他们目前正处于艰难的电动汽车过渡期。他们中的大多数并没有真正制定出未来的坚实计划。现在，中国正试图通过低价电动汽车进入市场。因此，欧洲委员会表示，嘿，中国政府不公平地为本土汽车制造商提供了过多的补贴。这实际上就好比我们政府开始给特斯拉在吉加特克萨斯州生产Model Y的资金，然后特斯拉开始将产品出口到欧洲。显然，短期内消费者会受益，但问题在于汽车行业的长期影响会是什么？

Then just yesterday, our Energy Secretary said China could flood the US EV market with its offerings. We're very concerned about China big footing our industry in the US, even as we're building up now this incredible backbone of manufacturing. She added, China is investing massive amounts for the purpose of big footing, so we need to understand that it's important for people to buy EVs in an affordable fashion, but we can do that and we can keep our country safe. I love the optimism, but the truth is the United States has absolutely not proven that it can sell EVs affordably to its consumers. Taking Tesla out of the equation, there are a handful of maybe affordable options depending on who you would ask, but they're definitely not selling in any type of actual volume. Nor has any one of these other automakers proven they can sell any EV profitably outside of Tesla in the States. Gigabrelin was set to hold a Works Council vote in the middle of March, but E-Game at all was pushing that back, saying that they needed more time to make some nominations. Well, turns out Gigabrelin has won this dispute over the timing of these elections. The article did say Tesla now has about 12,500 people employed at Gigabrelin, and this new Works Council must be elected to make sure that employees are adequately represented. After these new elections, the number of Works Council members will increase from the current 19 up to 39. In case you're new, a German Works Council is not the same thing as a union as we think of them here in the States. After the election, these members will then serve as an intermediary between all of the employees at Gigabrelin and the management, just ensuring that the health benefits, the working conditions, and everything stay on the up and up. A Works Council is indeed something that is mandatory for Tesla in Germany.

就在昨天，我们的能源部长表示中国可能通过其产品淹没美国的电动汽车市场。我们非常担心中国在美国的产业中占据主导地位，尽管我们目前正在建立这个令人难以置信的制造业骨干。她还补充说，中国正在投入巨额资金来实现主导地位，因此我们需要明白，重要的是让人们以实惠的方式购买电动汽车，但我们可以做到，也可以确保我们国家的安全。我喜欢这种乐观态度，但事实是，美国绝对没有证明可以向消费者以实惠的价格销售电动汽车。排除特斯拉，可能有几种便宜的选择，取决于询问的对象，但它们绝对没有以任何实际销量在售。这些其他汽车制造商中没有一个在美国以外像特斯拉那样赢利地销售任何电动汽车。Gigabrelin原计划在3月中旬举行工会议事会选举，但E-Game等人推迟了这个时间，表示他们需要更多时间提名。结果是Gigabrelin在这些选举时间安排上获胜。文章提到特斯拉现在在Gigabrelin就业约12500人，并且必须选举新的工会议事会以确保雇员得到充分代表。在这些新选举之后，工会议事会成员的数量将从当前的19人增加到39人。如果你不了解，德国的工会议事会和美国我们所理解的工会是不同的。选举之后，这些成员将充当Gigabrelin所有员工与管理层之间的中介，确保健康福利、工作条件等一切都保持在正轨。对于特斯拉在德国来说，工会议事会确实是一件必不可少的事情。

We heard that Panasonic had scrapped its plans for a battery factory in Oklahoma, but now they're considering expanding their facility in Kansas. Panasonic said it's assessing whether to add production capacity beyond what it's currently building in DeSoto. They're calling this potential expansion Phase 3, which would include building additional production lines. One source said the scale of the plan is similar to the size of the current plant, which is costing the company about $4 billion. They did say the main customer for any additional batteries would most likely be Tesla. For now though, no final decision has been made. Panasonic said it would likely use the additional capacity to make cutting edge 4680 cells, and on that point, they're touting that their 4680s still leave the industry in terms of technology and safety. That was after specifically mentioning that both Tesla and LG are also developing their own 4680s. A decision on Phase 3 will likely come by the end of the year.

我们听说松下取消了在俄克拉荷马州建造电池工厂的计划，但现在他们考虑扩大堪萨斯州的设施。松下表示，他们正在评估是否要增加德索托目前正在建造的生产能力。他们称这个潜在的扩建为第三阶段，其中将包括建造额外的生产线。一位消息人士表示，这个计划的规模类似于目前工厂的规模，这将使公司花费约40亿美元。他们确实说，任何额外电池的主要客户很可能是特斯拉。然而，目前尚未做出最终决定。松下表示，他们很可能利用额外的产能来生产尖端的4680电池，关于这一点，他们吹嘘说他们的4680电池在技术和安全方面仍然领先于行业。这是在特别提到特斯拉和LG也正在开发他们自己的4680电池之后说的。关于第三阶段的决定可能将在年底之前做出。

A researcher at Technosystems said Panasonic's plan appears to reflect steady demand from Tesla. As competition in the EV market heats up, Tesla is making a decent profit even after the price cuts. This compared with conventional automakers who are relying on hybrid and combustion cars to make up for losses in their EV business. He pointed out Tesla desperately wants more 4680 batteries. That checks out, as the president of Panasonic said it would not invest in new factories without concrete commitments from car makers. We've already talked about how important this factory will be for Tesla potentially allowing the Model 3 variants to re-qualify for the IRA credits. Tesla's not totally out of the woods with this one yet, but we just had a district judge rule that the Tesla owners that were looking to form a class action lawsuit against Tesla, claiming that Tesla falsely advertised the range of its vehicles.

技术系统的一位研究员表示，松下的计划似乎反映了特斯拉稳定的需求。随着电动汽车市场竞争的加剧，尽管降价，特斯拉仍然能够获得可观利润。这与传统汽车制造商依靠混合动力和燃油汽车弥补其电动汽车业务的亏损形成对比。他指出，特斯拉迫切需要更多的4680电池。这正如松下的总裁所说的，如果没有汽车制造商的具体承诺，他们将不会投资新工厂。我们已经谈到这家工厂对特斯拉有多重要，可能允许Model 3的不同型号重新符合IRA税收抵免的要求。特斯拉在这方面还没有完全摆脱困境，但我们刚刚有一位地方法官裁定，特斯拉所有者想要集体诉讼特斯拉，声称特斯拉虚假宣传其车辆的续航里程。

Well, now those owners are going to have to pursue their claims in individual arbitration. The judge did say she did not dismiss the lawsuits and said she could eventually issue an injunction against Tesla if the drivers successfully arbitrated their claims under California's competition law and other provisions. So at least for now, Tesla is avoiding a class action lawsuit on this front. Here it is, Rivians are to platform. Rivian is expecting this platform to start around $45,000. On the high end, they were touting ranges over 300 plus miles, but the base version will be 270 miles. It will be a 5-seat vehicle. Rivian will achieve those ranges with two different battery pack sizes. The R2 platform will be available internationally after the North American launch. On the high end, the 0-60 time will be under 3 seconds.

现在这些车主将不得不在个人仲裁中追求他们的索赔。法官表示她没有驳回这些诉讼，并表示如果驾驶员成功在加利福尼亚的竞争法和其他条款下进行仲裁，她可能最终会对特斯拉发出禁令。所以至少目前，特斯拉在这方面避免了一场集体诉讼。接下来是里维安的平台。里维安希望这个平台的起价在45,000美元左右。在高端，他们宣称续航里程超过300英里，但基础版本将是270英里。这将是一辆可容纳5个座位的车辆。里维安将通过两种不同的电池包尺寸实现这些续航里程。R2平台在北美推出后将在国际上推出。在高端，0-60加速时间将不到3秒。

It has some cool features like a nice size frunk. The rear quarter windows do pop out. The rear glass drops down into the lift gate for carrying longer objects like a surfboard. The front row seats actually fold flat too, which is pretty nice for camping. Rivian did report the use of high pressure die castings for this platform, so we'll see what that's all about and if it's like a giga cast. There will be two glove boxes in this vehicle and the steering wheel will have a new scroll wheel. Rivian plans to use 46.95 cylindrical cells in a structural pack, so the battery pack will make up the floor of the vehicle. A quick aside, there are other automakers planning to use the 46.95 form factor as well. BMW is planning to use them in their new class lineup. The R2 will come in single, dual, and a tri-motor setup.

它有一些很酷的功能，比如一个不错尺寸的前备箱。后部的侧窗可以弹出。后玻璃可以下降到后备箱内，用来搭载像冲浪板这样更长的物体。前排座椅实际上也可以完全折叠，对露营来说非常方便。Rivian报告说他们在这个平台上使用了高压压铸技术，我们会看到这究竟是怎么回事，以及是否像超级铸件一样。这辆车将有两个手套箱，方向盘将配备一个新型滚轮。Rivian计划在结构化组件中使用46.95号柱形电芯，因此电池组将构成车辆的地板。顺便说一句，其他汽车制造商也计划使用46.95号电芯。BMW计划在他们的新车系中使用它们。R2将提供单电机、双电机和三电机的配置。

It'll have 11 cameras and 5 radars that's compared to Tesla's 8 cameras and 0 radars. Rivian did mention hands-free driving on the highway. Reservations for this vehicle are open now and RJ said later this month Rivians will have access to the Tesla Supercharger network. The thing is though, right now on the R2 design, they have the charge port on the rear passenger side which I really hope they changed before production. Rivian also announced its pausing construction at its factory in Georgia, but they did confirm they do plan to make the R2 there eventually. This move is to save them capital, the number they gave was saving about $2.25 billion. Honestly, that factory really has been a headache for Rivian from the pushback from the locals, and they've also had some challenges getting their incentives for that factory lined up. This move does reduce the chances that Rivian will be forced to rely on a cap raise in the future, and of course leveraging what Rivian already has in Illinois will help them to bring R2 to market much sooner.

它将配备11个摄像头和5个雷达，而特斯拉只有8个摄像头和0个雷达。Rivian提到了在高速公路上实现无人驾驶。这款车的预订现在已经开始，RJ说本月晚些时候Rivian将获得特斯拉超级充电网络的接入权限。不过，目前在R2的设计中，充电口位于后座乘客侧，我真的希望他们在生产之前能改变这一点。Rivian还宣布暂停了在乔治亚州工厂的建设，但他们确认最终还是计划在那里生产R2。这一举措是为了节省资本，他们给出的数字是节省了大约25亿美元。说实话，这家工厂一直是Rivian的一个头疼问题，因为当地居民反对，他们还遇到了一些在工厂获得激励方面的挑战。这一举措降低了Rivian未来被迫依赖股票募集资金的可能性，当然，利用Rivian在伊利诺伊州已经拥有的资源，将有助于他们更快地将R2推向市场。

They also said the capacity in Illinois will expand to 215,000 units per year. They did not share a timeline for when they planned to restart construction in Georgia. And when it comes to the R2 being produced in Illinois, they're expecting deliveries to begin in the first half of 2026. They're expecting this vehicle to qualify for the tax credit, so let's hope it's still around in 2026. Rivian also pulled out a one more thing move announcing the R3 and the R3X, but for now there's no date on production, there's no price, other than saying it'll be cheaper than the R2 platform, and it'll go into production after the R2. They said the R3X will be a performance variance of the R3 with more ground clearance, a tri-motor setup, and different materials.

他们还说伊利诺伊州的产能将扩大到每年215,000辆。他们没有透露重新启动乔治亚州建设计划的时间表。至于在伊利诺伊州生产的R2，他们预计交付将在2026年上半年开始。他们预计这辆车将符合税收抵免要求，希望它在2026年依然存在。Rivian还意外宣布了R3和R3X，但目前还没有生产日期，没有价格，只说它将比R2平台便宜，并且会在R2之后开始生产。他们表示R3X将是R3的性能版本，具有更高离地间隙、三电机设置和不同的材料。

Now look, before I say what I'm about to say, I am rooting for RJ, I'm rooting for Rivian. I love the brand, I love the soul this company has, and the adventure ethos, the sustainability, opening up their adventure charging network, I'm all for all of it. But here's what I think at least some people seem to be somewhat clueless about. This $45,000 is the pricing Rivian is expecting, but this is two years from now, and as we've seen time and time again, we cannot treat these expectations as gospel, especially for a company that's losing money right now. I'd also add that two year timeline is probably a best case scenario. More importantly though, Rivian right now is losing on average over $40,000 for every car it sells. These cars, by the way, they're selling for around $80,000. This is over simplified, but selling a car for $80,000 means it's costing Rivian around $120,000.

现在看， 在我说出我将要说的话之前，我是支持RJ的，我支持Rivian。我喜欢这个品牌，我喜欢这家公司的灵魂，冒险精神，可持续性，开设他们的冒险充电网络，我全力支持。但是至少有一些人似乎对这方面有些糊涂。这45,000美元是Rivian预期的价格，但还需要两年时间才能实现，而且我们已经多次看到，不能将这些期望视为圣旨，尤其是对于一个目前正在亏损的公司。我还要补充说，两年的时间表可能是最乐观的情况。更重要的是，目前Rivian每售出一辆车就平均亏损超过40,000美元。顺便说一句，这些车售价大约在80,000美元左右。虽然这有些简化，但以80,000美元售出一辆车意味着Rivian的成本可能高达120,000美元。

That's while they sell around $15,000 per quarter. So with Rivian expecting to sell the R2 vehicle for around $50,000, we'll call it, to simply break even on the R2, Rivian would have to drop the cost per car by $70,000. That's basically the price of over 7 full battery packs. So what I'm saying is that if Rivian is not close to breaking even on luxury vehicles, what's the plan for doing it with affordable vehicles? And look, before you jump to Rivian's defense, I know it took Tesla 10 years to turn a profit. We need to give Rivian time, but here's the thing. Tesla spent an entire decade producing luxury cars, learning how to build its supply chain, driving costs down, refining the manufacturing lines, hiring talent, building the support and the service network.

这就是为什么他们每季度销售约15,000美元的原因。所以凭借着Rivian预计将R2车辆售价约为50,000美元，我们可以说，要想R2车型简单地实现盈亏平衡，Rivian需要将每辆车的成本降低70,000美元。这基本上是超过7个完整电池组的价格。所以我的意思是，如果Rivian在豪华车上还没有接近实现盈亏平衡，那么在廉价车型上如何实现呢？在你为Rivian辩护之前，请注意，我知道特斯拉花了10年才实现盈利。我们需要给Rivian时间，但问题在于，特斯拉花了整整十年制造豪华车，学习如何构建供应链，降低成本，优化制造线，招聘人才，建立支持和服务网络。

Tesla Roadster Delivery started in 2008. The Model S was 2012. The Model X 2015. And then Tesla didn't aim for a larger market until 2017, a full decade later with the Model 3. And let's not forget, that was the car that almost bankrupt Tesla. On the other hand, we have Rivian who has only been producing cars for less than 3 years. The first R1T rolled off the line in September of 2021. Now yeah, Rivian has way more data than I do, obviously. My only concern here is that Rivian might be rushing to the mainstream, a bit more affordable market, before they have tried and true manufacturing expertise, and maybe before its supply chain is firmly established.

特斯拉的Roadster交付始于2008年。Model S发布于2012年，Model X在2015年发布。直到2017年，特斯拉才开始瞄准更大的市场，推出了Model 3，整整过了10年。不要忘记，这辆车几乎让特斯拉破产。另一方面，Rivian只生产汽车不到3年时间。第一辆R1T于2021年9月下线。当然，Rivian比我拥有更多的数据。我的唯一担忧是，Rivian可能在他们尝试和真正的制造专业知识之前，甚至在供应链牢固建立之前，就急于进入更平价的主流市场。

As someone rooting for Rivian, I guess I'm just hoping that Rivian isn't rushing our to the market, hoping it's going to be the thing that magically saves the company. Because if we've learned anything from Tesla, it's that manufacturing at scale is incredibly difficult. I do think even if Rivian is forced to do a cap raise before 2026, that they'd be able to secure the funds and extend their runway. And who knows, maybe Rivian will pull its own rabbit out of a hat with some impressive manufacturing innovations. But the point is they're going to have to drop costs by over 60% at a minimum. And it's not only that, but this was a really good chart from AJ on X, showing cumulative free cash flow of pure EV makers.

作为一个支持Rivian的人，我的希望只是希望Rivian不要急于进入市场，希望它会像魔术般拯救公司。因为如果我们从特斯拉那里学到了什么，那就是规模化生产是非常困难的。我认为即使Rivian在2026年之前被迫进行股本增发，他们也能够获得资金并延长他们的飞行时间。谁知道，也许Rivian会用一些令人印象深刻的制造创新来展示自己的实力。但重点是他们必须至少降低成本超过60％。而且不仅如此，这是AJ对X做的一个非常好的图表，显示了纯电动汽车制造商的累积自由现金流。

Clearly, so far, Rivian hasn't really figured out the sales turn timing yet, and this is just another hurdle for Rivian to figure out. Another quick aside, it's kind of funny how Rivian announces a $45,000 car for 2026, and the stock jumps 13%. Tesla announces a $25,000 car and the stock plunges 60%. Now, I know that's not how the market works, but you gotta love it. And this should go without saying, but the Model Y may be even more affordable come 2026. And as I said, the tax credits might not be around in 2026. Who really knows?

显然，到目前为止，Rivian还没有真正找到销售转型的时机，这只是Rivian需要解决的另一个障碍。另一个快速的提醒是，有点有趣的是Rivian宣布2026年推出一辆售价45000美元的车，股价上涨了13%。特斯拉宣布一款售价25000美元的车，股价却下跌了60%。现在，我知道市场不是这样运作的，但你得喜欢这个情况。而且毋庸置疑，到了2026年，Model Y可能会更加实惠。正如我所说，到了2026年，可能再也没有税收抵免了。谁真正知道呢？

So yeah, to everyone that said things like Rivian dropped the mic on Tesla, or things like, if there was any thought of Rivian going out of business, put those thoughts to bed, I would respond by saying, let's slow a roll here a bit, until Rivian proves it can make an EV, profitably at scale, they literally have not even entered the game yet. Plus, there's still a non-zero chance that Rivian is not even around come 2030. However, with all of that said, the product itself should absolutely be a hit. It seems to have the specs that would make it very desirable for a large group of people. Now, Rivian just needs to actually hit these specs on time and find a way to stop burning cash and eventually turn a profit sometime hopefully before the end of the decade. Lars and Franz did a 30-minute livestream on X talking about the Model 3 Plus, we really didn't learn anything new, but I personally always enjoy hearing these two gentlemen talks, so I'll have it linked below if you want to check it out.

所以，对于那些说Rivian抢走了特斯拉的风头的人，或者说，如果有人认为Rivian可能会破产的，让我们慢下来，直到Rivian证明他们可以盈利地生产电动汽车，他们甚至还没有进入竞争。此外，Rivian甚至在2030年可能已经不存在的可能性仍然不为零。然而，说了这些，产品本身应该绝对会受到欢迎。它看起来拥有可以使大量人群感兴趣的规格。现在，Rivian只需要确保按时达到这些规格，找到停止烧钱的方法，并希望在本十年结束之前实现盈利。Lars和Franz在X上进行了30分钟的直播演讲，谈论了Model 3 Plus，我们并没有学到任何新东西，但我个人总是喜欢听这两位先生说话，如果你想看看的话，我会在下面链接。

Taking a look at the largest companies by market cap, Tesla has now fallen all the way down to number 14. Tesla stock closed the day at $178.65, up 1.2%, while the NASDAQ was up 1.51%. Rivian ended the day up 13.42%. It was an average volume day for Tesla trading about 4 million shares below the average 30-day volume. Again, apologies for the late upload and any feeling of brevity in today's episode. It was an odd day.

看看市值最大的公司，特斯拉现在已经跌到第14名。特斯拉股票收盘价为178.65美元，上涨1.2%，而纳斯达克指数上涨了1.51%。里维安当天收盘上涨了13.42%。特斯拉的交易量是平均30天交易量的约400万股。对于今天的晚点和节目内容的简洁表示歉意。今天是个奇怪的一天。

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