Worse Than We Thought / Tesla's New Motor / CEO's Dropping Like Flies ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. As it turns out, it looks like Judge McCormick does have an email, it's Kathleen.McChormick at Delaware.gov. Sending a physical letter would still be the preferred option, but if you wanted to double up, that might be a viable solution. Shout out to Crypto Keeper and David for finding and confirming that email. Here's her information on a membership roster, just remember, keep it classy out there.

欢迎来到《Electrified》，我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯。事实证明，McCormick法官确实有一个电子邮件，地址是Kathleen.McChormick在Delaware.gov。发送实体信件仍然是首选选项，但如果您想要备选方案，也许这是一个可行的解决方案。向Crypto Keeper和David致敬，他们找到并确认了那封电子邮件。这里有她在会员名单上的信息，记住，在外面保持优雅。

Correction from yesterday, I misspoke that $288.9k rate was per hour, per lawyer, working on that Delaware case. Also, with regard to my subtle jab at Elon's grammar at the end of this post, turns out that's actually proper German. And thank you for all of the feedback on the rounding situation. Right now, it's sounding like the Gigabrelin situation is going to be a bit worse than we thought. Today, Tesla said they're expecting Gigabrelin to have no electricity until March 17th. A spokesperson said the plant is expected to be without electricity until the end of next week. March 17th is actually a Sunday, so not this Sunday, but the following Sunday.

昨天的更正，我说错了288.9k美元是每小时每位律师在处理那个德拉华州案件。关于我在帖子末尾对埃隆语法的轻微批评，结果那其实是正确的德语。感谢大家对取整情况的反馈。目前看来，Gigabrelin情况可能会比我们想的更糟糕。今天，特斯拉表示他们预计Gigabrelin将在3月17日之前没有电力。一位发言人表示该工厂预计将在下周末结束之前都将没有电力。3月17日实际上是一个星期天，不是这个星期天，而是下下个星期天。

Ordinarily, Wall Street analysts don't update their Tesla delivery targets until the last two weeks of the quarter, but not the case this time around as on this news, Baird is lowering their Q1 estimate to 421,000. The Wall Street estimate still sits at 489,000, but this is not at all where Quarter 1 is trending. And again, this number usually isn't updated by most analysts until the end of the quarter. The way things are trending for Tesla's Q1 right now, they're flirting with being flat year over year. Q1 last year, Tesla did 422.9,000 deliveries.

通常情况下，华尔街分析师直到季度的最后两周才会更新他们对特斯拉交付目标的预期，但这一次情况不同，因为根据这一消息，贝尔德将他们的第一季度估计降至421,000辆。华尔街的估计仍然为489,000辆，但第一季度的实际情况并不是这样。而且，大多数分析师通常到季度末才会更新这个数字。目前特斯拉第一季度的趋势表明，他们正面临着同比持平的风险。去年第一季度，特斯拉交付了422.9万辆车。

If Gigabrelin really is without electricity until the end of next week, we could be looking at a 12-15,000 unit loss when this is all said and done. If there's any silver lining here, it's that all of the politicians and industry officials are coming out and backing Tesla, offering to do what they can to help. This also goes beyond Tesla we have the German industry calling for better protection of critical infrastructure. Unfortunately, the protection of this infrastructure urgently needs to be adapted to the change security situation. It's essential that investors continue to see Germany as a safe country.

如果吉加博林确实要到下周末才能恢复供电，那么在这一切结束时我们可能会遭受12-15,000单位的损失。如果有什么好消息的话，那就是所有政客和行业官员都站出来支持特斯拉，愿意提供帮助。这不仅限于特斯拉，我们还有德国行业呼吁加强对关键基础设施的保护。不幸的是，这些基础设施的保护急需调整以适应不断变化的安全形势。投资者继续将德国视为一个安全的国家至关重要。

The government is simultaneously warning against alarmism, saying that this was just one instance. The problem with that is it's not, we just talked yesterday, this very same group launched a similar attack three years ago. One rather interesting thing about this arson attack at Gigabrelin, there are some other all EV factories in Germany that as far as we know are not being attacked. VW has an all EV plant in Zwickow. Mercedes has some EV operations at its German factories, you get the picture. All I'm saying is I would like to know why this volcano group is so seemingly fixated on Tesla alone.

政府正在警告不要过分恐慌，说这只是一个例子。问题在于这不是第一次，就在昨天我们还谈到过，这个同样的团伙三年前发动过类似的袭击。关于Gigabrelin的纵火袭击有一个非常有趣的地方，德国还有一些其他的全电动车工厂，据我们所知并没有遭受袭击。大众在齐克瓦有一个全电动车工厂。梅赛德斯在其德国工厂也有一些电动车业务，你可以想象出来。我只是想知道为什么这个火山团伙似乎只专注于特斯拉。

Rohan Patel has come out swinging, sharing some facts about Gigabrelin. Their vehicle production uses 33% less than the industry average. They recycle up to 100% of their industrial water. They have over 8 megawatts of installed solar capacity and they source renewable electricity. A forest station, aka building new forests for Gigabrelin, is faster than construction. 300 hectares of high quality forest, over 60% hardwood, has been planted. They're making ecological improvements to the existing forest through under planting hardwood. They incentivize sustainable living, 45% of their employees commute by public transport. We've talked about their shuttle train to the factory, that's free of charge. Tesla has installed those 500 wall connectors, free for public use.

Rohan Patel开始积极行动，分享了一些关于Gigabrelin的事实。他们的车辆生产比行业平均值少用33%的资源。他们可以回收高达100%的工业用水。他们安装了超过8兆瓦的太阳能电力容量，并采用可再生能源。建设森林工厂（即为Gigabrelin建立新森林）比传统建筑更快。已经种植了300公顷的高质量森林，其中60%以上是硬木。他们通过在森林中种植硬木植物来改善现有森林的生态环境。他们鼓励可持续生活方式，45%的员工乘坐公共交通上下班。我们已经谈论过他们工厂的免费穿梭火车。特斯拉已经安装了500个充电墙接口，供公众免费使用。

Of the 12,000 employees at Gigabrelin, 1500 of them were unemployed and another 700 were long term unemployed. They partner with 13 different schools and they're the biggest apprenticeship employer in Brandenburg. And Rohan briefly discussed Tesla's economic impact on the region that we've been over numerous times in the past. It really is this type of information that Tesla probably should have been disseminating a bit wider over the past few years. Clearly, not having a PR department does come with some trade offs.

在吉加贝林有1.2万名员工，其中有1500人失业，另外还有700人长期失业。他们与13所不同学校合作，是勃兰登堡州最大的实习雇主。罗汉简要讨论了特斯拉对该地区的经济影响，我们在过去已经多次讨论过这个话题。特斯拉可能应该在过去几年更广泛地传播这种信息。显然，没有公关部门会带来一些权衡。

Here we have Florian Mindorapu, I cannot vouch for at all. He's the co-founder and CEO of Mr. Green EV, building a Tesla FSD Autonomous Fleet. He said breaking news, FSD is coming to Europe in 2025. The new regulation is adopted. I'll keep you posted when we have more information. I went to the website to click around, we did mention last week this meeting was coming up, it's being held from March 5th to March 8th. He did clarify in the comments, yes FSD beta. I can't confirm it right now, but this certainly could be legit, you may remember last week we said at this meeting, they're discussing some pretty important legislation for FSD's future in Europe. By this post, maybe things went very well. According to the regulatory body, Tesla will have to submit an outline of the system's design for approval. According to Tesla Scope, a launch could come as soon as October in some European countries. Once it's released, Tesla will have to provide updates to regulators at least once per year. It should be clear this new regulation does not cover fully autonomous driving, it still requires the driver to remain engaged and responsible for the car at all times. The regulation that was reportedly adopted establishes a standardized framework for systems that support a combination of driving control assistance features like braking, accelerating and overtaking, not just cruise control. Hopefully toward the end of this week we get something official, and I would have to add here just because Tesla gets the green light and their approve to launch FSD beta there does not mean they're going to rush at the opportunity right away. I still think they want to get version 12 right in the United States before they start focusing on too many global markets. If this turns out to be true and whenever Tesla decides to launch FSD there, that of course will mean exciting times for the global take rate of Tesla's FSD. Especially if it's version 12.

这里有弗洛里安·明多拉普，我无法保证他的可靠性。他是Mr. Green EV的联合创始人兼首席执行官，正在建设特斯拉FSD自动驾驶车队。他表示，重大消息，FSD将于2025年进入欧洲。新的法规已经通过。我们有更多信息时会及时通知大家。我去了网站上看了看，我们上周提到过这次会议即将举行，时间是3月5日至3月8日。他在评论中澄清说，是的，是FSD beta。我现在无法确认，但这很可能是真实的，也许大家还记得上周我们说在这次会议上，他们正在讨论欧洲FSD未来的一些重要立法。从这篇帖子看，也许事情进展的非常顺利。根据监管机构的说法，特斯拉将需要提交系统设计大纲以供批准。根据Tesla Scope的消息，一些欧洲国家可能最快在10月推出。一旦发布，特斯拉将每年至少向监管机构提供更新。需要明确的是，这项新的法规并不涵盖完全自动驾驶，驾驶员仍需时刻保持警惕和对车辆负责。据报道已经通过的法规建立了一个用于支持诸如制动、加速和超车等驾驶控制辅助功能组合的标准化框架，而不仅仅是巡航控制。希望在本周末我们能得到官方消息，我必须在这里补充一点，就因为特斯拉得到了绿灯并获得了FSD beta的批准，这并不意味着他们会立刻抓住机会。我仍然认为他们想要在美国把12版搞对之后才会开始关注过多的全球市场。如果这些消息最终证实属实，而且无论特斯拉何时决定在那里推出FSD，这当然将是特斯拉FSD全球采用率激增的激动人心时刻。特别是如果是12版的话。

In the United States, Tesla customers can now get up to 10,000 free supercharging miles on a new Model S X or Y vehicle if you take delivery by the end of March and with this one it sounds like there's no leniency if you take delivery after that date. If you trade in your vehicle, you can get up to those 10,000 miles. They still expire two years after the delivery date. This offer excludes leasing. A senior account manager for Tesla in France is posting on LinkedIn about a new Model Y business variant. This will be a two-seat Model Y, and he said it'll be available exclusively in various stores in France. Contact your business to business advisor to find out more. This vehicle will have more storage space, more range, and they're saying it is eligible for commercial vehicle taxation.

在美国，特斯拉客户现在购买新的Model S X或Y车辆，如果在三月底之前交车，可以获得高达10,000免费超级充电里程。听起来如果在那个日期之后交车的话就没有宽限期。如果您以旧车抵换新车，也可以获得高达10,000里程。这些里程仍将在交车日期两年后到期。此优惠不包括租赁。法国特斯拉的高级客户经理在LinkedIn上发文介绍了一款新的Model Y商务版。这将是一款两座位的Model Y，他表示将在法国各地的专卖店里独家销售。联系您的商务顾问了解更多信息。这款车将拥有更多的储物空间、更长的续航里程，并且据说符合商用车辆税收标准。

Here's an image of what this will look like, less weight, more range and France has a significant commercial fleet that's mostly diesel so Tesla clearly going after that market. For now, it's not clear if Tesla has any plans to roll out this variant elsewhere globally. Over the past six to nine months France has really been challenging Germany for becoming Tesla's biggest market in terms of the European Union. You love to see Tesla getting creative during this stagnant growth phase. If you look at this chart from Roland it's showing us Tesla sales in Europe by month and quarter. If you look at the totals though dating back to quarter four of 2022 you can see Tesla sales overall in Europe really have been very stagnant. They've been flat or down now for the last four quarters. For Q1 of this year looking at year over year data we are indeed ahead of pace adding January and February but March had a huge year in Q1 last year.

这是一个展示出更轻、更长续航里程的形象，法国拥有一个规模相当大的商用车队，大多数是柴油车，所以特斯拉显然正在瞄准这个市场。目前还不清楚特斯拉是否有计划在全球其他地方推出这个车型。在过去的六到九个月里，法国真的在挑战德国，成为特斯拉在欧盟最大的市场之一。你会喜欢看到特斯拉在这个停滞增长阶段表现出创新。如果你看Roland的这张图表，它显示了特斯拉在欧洲的月度和季度销售情况。但是如果你看看从2022年第四季度开始的总销量，你会发现特斯拉在欧洲的整体销售一直非常平稳。过去四个季度，销量一直处于平稳或下降状态。今年第一季度，根据年度数据来看，我们确实领先一步，因为我们已经添加了1月和2月的数据，但是去年第一季度的三月份销量很大。

We've talked about China's wholesale sales being behind last year's pace, Europe may be flat or even behind pace in the United States. Model 3 Plus production out of Fremont has been slower than expected. My point I would just brace yourself for a rough quarter one. Just some validation for my comment about Model 3 production at Fremont right now. This customer shared he got six different estimated delivery dates for his Model 3 Plus. Originally he was told the beginning of February now he's being told the end of March. They're saying this two-seater Model Y is going to go 565 km on the WLTP cycle which is 32 km longer than the long-range Model Y or about 20 miles. Keep in mind all of the problems Tesla is facing right now it just gives them more opportunity to continue to innovate, to re-engineer new designs so when this slow growth period ends they're going to come out of it that much stronger.

我们已经谈论过中国的批发销售落后于去年的步伐，欧洲可能会持平甚至落后于美国。弗里蒙特工厂生产的Model 3 Plus比预期慢。我想说的是，准备迎接一个困难的第一季度。这是对我关于目前弗里蒙特工厂Model 3生产情况的一些证实。这位客户说他为他的Model 3 Plus得到了六个不同的预计交车日期。最初告诉他二月初，现在却告诉他三月底。他们说这款两座的Model Y将在WLTP循环中行驶565公里，比长续航Model Y多32公里，约20英里。请记住，特斯拉目前面临的所有问题只会给他们更多机会继续创新，重新设计新的产品，所以当这段缓慢增长时期结束，他们将变得更加强大。

Chuck Cook said several Tesla 8-ass drivers continue to test and validate FSD-beta 12 on his unprotected left turn. He doesn't know if the drivers are collecting data or validating software but they continue to drive this turn over and over. James Downmont got a ride in V12 from Bradford Ferguson and James said V12 is going to be over 100 times reduction in interventions compared to V11. This is not an incremental upgrade, it's a leap forward. I would highlight James said going to be not necessarily that it's already there right now. James continued it's impressively better than V11 and I predict most FSD users are going to find the new system to be dramatically less burdensome, annoying, and scary to use. The degree to which V12 accurately mimics human driving behaviors is startling and Tesla's ability to capture the good behaviors without the bad ones is better than I expected for such an early release truly impressive.

Chuck Cook表示，一些特斯拉8轮驱动程序员继续在他的未受保护的左转路口进行测试和验证FSD-beta 12。他不知道这些司机是在收集数据还是在验证软件，但他们继续一遍又一遍地驶过这个路口。James Downmont从Bradford Ferguson那里搭了V12的车，他说V12相比V11的干预要减少100多倍。这不是一个渐进式的升级，而是一个巨大的飞跃。我想强调的是James说的是将会，而不是它现在已经完全实现了。James继续说，它比V11要好得惊人，我预计大多数FSD用户会发现新系统使用起来大大减少了负担、令人讨厌和令人恐惧。V12准确模拟人类驾驶行为的程度令人震惊，特斯拉捕捉到好的行为而不是坏的行为的能力比我预期的要好，尤其是在这样一个早期版本的发布中真的令人印象深刻。

I think most importantly though he said the range of behaviors that are being effectively implemented with end-to-end path planning and control suggest to me they can get the rest of the way to better than human solely on top of more and better data and training. Elon replied saying thanks that's an accurate assessment. Training compute is currently our limiting factor but that issue is being resolved fast. Before we even talk about what that means it's pretty clear that at this point for most people version 12 is a significant improvement in terms of feeling like a human driver. That should serve as a big catalyst for more people to use the system because for many V11 was unusable because it's just uncomfortable. Having used V11 now for a few weeks in a city outside of California I can confirm. More people using FSD should lead you to think about Tesla's deferred revenue. The balance at the end of last year was $3.5 billion. Tesla said on the 10k of that balance, they expect to recognize $926 million of revenue in the next 12 months. Historically Tesla has estimated this figure on the high side and came in lower but if the V12 rollout goes wide and goes well this number could be conservative.

我认为最重要的是，他说到，通过端到端路径规划和控制有效实施的一系列行为，让我觉得他们可以在更多更好的数据和培训的基础上，比人类表现得更好。埃隆回答说谢谢，这是一个准确的评估。目前我们的计算训练是限制因素，但这个问题正在迅速解决。在我们谈论这意味着什么之前，很明显，对大多数人来说版本12在仿佛像人类驾驶员方面是一个重大进步。这应该成为更多人使用系统的重要催化剂，因为对许多人来说V11是无法使用的，因为太不舒服了。我在加州之外的一个城市使用了几周的V11后可以确认。更多人使用全自动驾驶系统可能会让你考虑一下特斯拉的递延收入。去年年底的余额为35亿美元。特斯拉在该余额中表示，他们预计在接下来的12个月内将认可9.26亿美元的收入。历史上特斯拉一直高估了这个数字，实际收入较低，但如果V12的推出广泛并且进展顺利，这个数字可能会被低估。

So if Elon's accurate comment does refer to this last paragraph from James what that means is Tesla doesn't need any major architectural changes anymore. All they would need is better data and more training. And if training compute is their limiting factor but that's being resolved fast we should be in for a very exciting 6-12 months of FSD progress. Tesla doesn't need to launch Robotaxes to make significantly more money from FSD. And look I know these developments have been hyped up for so long that a lot of people out there are jaded I totally understand it but just from a system architecture from a structural standpoint it finally seems like Tesla's in the place where it needs to be. But in this realm there are always unknown unknowns so we'll see.

所以，如果埃隆的准确评论确实指的是詹姆斯的最后一段，那就意味着特斯拉不再需要进行任何重大的架构变更了。他们只需要更好的数据和更多的训练。如果训练计算是他们的限制因素，但这一问题正在迅速解决，那么我们将迎来一个非常令人兴奋的6-12个月的FSD进展。特斯拉不需要推出无人出租车，就可以从FSD中大幅增加收入。我知道这些发展已经被过度炒作了很长时间，许多人对此感到厌倦，我完全理解，但从系统架构的角度来看，特斯拉终于似乎已经到达了它应该到达的位置。但在这个领域总有未知的未知因素，所以我们拭目以待。

James also said watching these really reinforces to me how much better V12 is handling these roads and parking lots that I have so much experience with in V11 it's just in a different league. I hope to be encouraged by these videos of random parking lots in China with a bunch of Teslas and then people say that demand is surging. It certainly may be true with all of the new incentives but at the end of the day we just have to rely on the data that comes in with the Tesla weekly numbers. This one got lost in the shuffle yesterday Monroe Live said they also got a Model 3 Plus so they did say they are not planning to tear this one down. The Model 3 Ludacris specs continue to leak this time we get some regulatory documents from South Korea. This vehicle will be getting a new rear motor it's labeled as 4d2 and it's different than the plaid rear motor which is 5d2. This one on the Model 3 Ludacris comes with more power up to 303 kilowatts or 406 horsepower. Compared to the older Model 3 performance that rear motor was 250 kilowatts or 335 horsepower. It'll have the same front motor so these two combined will have 461 kilowatts of power compared to the older Model 3 performance at 377 kilowatts. That's roughly a 22% increase in power. The old Model 3 performance rear motor reached peak power around 47 miles per hour but with this new motor they're saying it'll reach peak power at 68 miles per hour. Translation more power at higher speeds. The weight will be the same as before. It'll have an 82 kilowatt hour battery pack and they're saying around 311 miles of range on the EPA cycle.

詹姆斯还说，观看这些视频让我更加明显感到V12版本在处理这些道路和停车场方面要比我在V11版本有的经验更好，它真的处于一个不同的水平。我希望通过这些在中国随机停车场里有很多特斯拉的视频得到鼓励，然后人们说需求激增。尽管所有新的激励措施可能是真实的，但最终我们还是要依靠特斯拉每周的数据。昨天的情况中有一些信息被忽略了，Monroe Live说他们也得到了一个Model 3 Plus版本，所以他们表示不打算拆解这款车。Model 3 Ludacris版本的规格继续泄露，这次我们得到了一些来自韩国的监管文件。这辆车将配备一个新的后驱动电机，标记为4d2，与Plaid版本的5d2不同。Model 3 Ludacris版的这款车拥有更多的动力，高达303千瓦或406马力。与较旧的Model 3性能版本的后驱动电机相比，其功率只有250千瓦或335马力。它将保持相同的前驱动电机，这两者组合在一起将拥有461千瓦的功率，相比较于较旧的Model 3性能版本的377千瓦。大致增加了22%的动力。较旧的Model 3性能版本的后驱动电机在约47英里/小时时达到最大功率，但有了这个新的电机，他们表示它将在68英里/小时时达到最大功率。翻译意味着在更高速度下有更大的动力。重量将与以前相同。它将配备一个82千瓦时的电池组，并在EPA评估循环中拥有约311英里的续航里程。

The Fuel Economy.gov website was updated with eligible vehicles for either the full or partial tax credit. Now we have 17 different variants that qualify. The Cadillac Lyric and the Honda Pro Log are now both officially on the list for the full credit. New Nissan Leaf is now one of the cheapest EVs available for sale. This one starts at $29,000 and qualifies for half of the credit. Nothing new for Tesla even though the Model 3 performance is listed and it says 2024 this is still referring to the old variant none of the new refreshed Model 3's qualify for any credit. And here it is. There's currently only one electric vehicle sold in the United States that costs under $30,000 new. That title goes to the new 2024 Nissan Leaf. The electric Viking and no shaded off to him but he was reporting that CATL's M3P battery was going to be used in a Tesla vehicle soon. In his defense there was some reporting about it but this article from the CN EV post said CATL is still in the process of developing and validating the M3P battery with Tesla. The exact timing of the installation is not clear. They're saying the M3P battery will primarily target the market with a range of more than 700 km which is like 430 miles. But tracking it down here's the reason why I would not hold your breath on this one. Back in August of 2022 the reporting was that CATL would start supplying M3P batteries to Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2022. That came and went along with all of 2023 and there were no reports of CATL's M3P batteries in a Tesla in 2023 either. So will Tesla use an M3P battery eventually? Most likely but is it going to be soon? Maybe not.

Fuel Economy.gov网站已更新符合全额或部分税收抵免资格的车辆。现在，我们有17种不同的车型符合资格。凯迪拉克Lyric和本田Pro Log现在正式列入全额抵免名单。新的日产Leaf是目前销售的最便宜的电动汽车之一。价格为29,000美元，符合一半的抵免资格。特斯拉没有什么新动态，尽管Model 3的性能型被列出，并且显示2024年，但这仍然指的是旧款，没有新款Model 3符合任何抵免资格。目前，在美国销售的新车中只有一款电动汽车的售价低于30,000美元。这个头衔属于新的2024年日产Leaf。有人报道CATL的M3P电池很快会被用于特斯拉的车辆。这里并非在对他进行贬低，但他报道称CN EV post的文章指出，CATL仍在开发和验证与特斯拉合作使用M3P电池的过程。安装的确切时间尚不明确。他们表示M3P电池主要面向续航里程超过700公里（约430英里）的市场。但细查下来，这里有一条不太乐观的原因。2022年8月，有报道称CATL将在2022年第四季度开始向特斯拉供应M3P电池。但到了2023年，CATL的M3P电池仍没有出现在特斯拉车辆中。所以特斯拉最终会使用M3P电池吗？很有可能，但会很快吗？或许并不。

More people have been talking about Waymo lately, they've stayed out of negative headlines and they continue to quietly expand. The last time we got an update though on the cost of their vehicles was about 2 years ago. At the time their CEO said if we equip our Chrysler Pacifica van or a Jaguar eyepace with our sensors and computers it costs no more than a moderately equipped Mercedes S class which can retail around $180,000 in the United States. Not at all to smack Waymo down but the two biggest questions about Waymo still remain. One is profitability and two is their ability to scale. On the first point, Alphabet does not break out anything specifically for Waymo, it's just grouped into this other bets division which in 2023 lost over $4 billion.

最近越来越多的人在谈论Waymo，他们远离负面头条，继续悄悄扩张。不过，我们最后一次关于他们车辆成本的更新是大约两年前。当时，他们的CEO表示，如果我们给我们的克莱斯勒太平洋车或者捷豹eyepace装上我们的传感器和电脑，成本不会超过一辆装备适度的梅赛德斯S级轿车，这种轿车在美国零售价约为18万美元。不是说要贬低Waymo，但关于Waymo仍然存在两个最大的问题。一是盈利能力，二是他们的扩张能力。对于第一个问题，谷歌母公司Alphabet没有为Waymo单独披露任何信息，而是将其归为其他投注部门，该部门在2023年亏损超过40亿美元。

Then on point 2, as of August last year, Waymo told us they have a fleet of about 250 driverless vehicles in San Francisco. And listen, I totally agree, I don't think Waymo and Tesla need to be competitors necessarily but I've seen a lot more people talking about how Waymo might start driving profitability for Alphabet, I just don't think we're anywhere near that point yet. Don't get me wrong, Waymo is doing great work but even if they were to quickly roll out to 5 new cities, they're still not operating at large scale and they're most likely not that close to breaking even. This article from the information is such a great reminder that Tesla making its own 4680 batteries in house at a scale that's bigger than prototype level, how big of an accomplishment that really is.

然后在第二点上，截至去年八月，Waymo告诉我们他们在旧金山拥有大约250辆无人驾驶车辆。听我说，我完全同意，我不认为Waymo和特斯拉必须成为竞争对手，但我看到很多人都在谈论Waymo如何可能开始为Alphabet实现盈利，我只是认为我们还没有达到那个点。不要误会，Waymo正在做出伟大工作，但即使他们很快在5个新城市推出，他们仍然还没有大规模运营，很可能还没有接近盈亏平衡。这篇来自《信息》的文章真是一个很好的提醒，提醒我们特斯拉在规模上超过了原型水平，自己在内部制造4680电池，这真是一个多大的成就。

Over just the past year or so in the United States alone, the CEOs of 6 next gen battery companies have been pushed out or resigned. A common thread in the upheaval at these companies is the industry shift from research and development to the risky task of manufacturing at large scale. All of Lilac solutions, Q-Berg, QuantumScape, our next energy, Fryer and Enovix have all lost their CEO in the past year. Elon's always saying the same thing about production, I can't think of the quote though, productions easy. Peter Rawlinson just said, Lucid must not rely on the bottomless wealth of its Saudi Arabian backer as it looks to raise funds over the next year. Peter said Lucid was looking at every aspect of cost and that should be the most obvious thing ever at this stage.

仅在美国，过去一年左右，已有6家下一代电池公司的首席执行官被迫离职或辞职。这些公司动荡中的一个共同线索是，行业正在从研究和开发转向制造大规模风险任务。在过去一年中， Lilac solutions、Q-Berg、QuantumScape、我们的下一代能源、Fryer 和 Enovix 这些公司的CEO都已离职。埃隆总是在说生产的问题，我想不起那句引用，生产应该很简单。Peter Rawlinson 刚刚说，Lucid 在未来一年寻求筹资时，不能依赖其沙特阿拉伯支持者的无底线财富。Peter 说，Lucid 正在审视成本的每一个方面，这在这个阶段应该是最显而易见的事情。

While the business had enough money to last into 2025, he said it would need to raise funds again. Now the financial time said Lucid had $4.8 billion of cash at the end of 2023 but that's factually not correct. Heading to Lucid's balance sheet at the end of last year, their cash and cash equivalents was $1.4 billion, not $4.8. The number they listed was actually their total current assets. That's not the same thing as cash. We all make mistakes but coming from the financial times, that's somewhat sloppy. Back to what Peter said, it's inevitable we need to raise in the future, it's just a question of when, we need to pick our moment. If I adopt the mindset that there is a bottomless wealth from the PIF, that's very dangerous, that's something I will never do, I respect them far too much for that.

虽然公司有足够的现金可以支撑到2025年，但他说公司将需要再次筹集资金。现在，财务时报称露骑士在2023年底有48亿美元的现金，但事实上这是不正确的。查看去年年底露骑士的资产负债表，他们的现金及现金等价物是14亿美元，而不是48亿美元。他们列出的数字实际上是他们的总流动资产，而不是现金。我们都会犯错，但从财经时报出现这种问题有些草率。回到彼得说的话，我们未来需要筹资是不可避免的，只是一个时间问题，我们需要抓住时机。如果我采取认为沙特公共投资基金会源源不断提供财富的心态，那是非常危险的，我绝对不会这样做，我对他们非常尊重。

Lucid is exploring cost cutting measures that include bringing logistics under the same roof to reduce operating spend, looking at the bill of materials, looking at overheads, looking at reducing anything that is variable. They might need to be looking to a higher power at this point. Alex was reporting on a very sad story, a VW employee was killed in a serious accident at a plant in Emden. And honestly, shout out to all of the production workers out there at all of these companies that put in hard, dangerous hours so that we can enjoy the fruits of their labor for all of these products that we rely on, use and hopefully really enjoy.

Lucid正在探讨包括将物流纳入同一屋檐下以降低运营成本在内的削减成本措施，审视物料清单、分析固定成本以及减少所有可变成本。他们可能需要寻求更高层面的解决方案。亚历克斯报道了一个非常悲伤的故事，一名大众汽车的员工在Emden工厂发生严重事故中遇难。诚实地说，向所有在这些公司里辛勤工作的生产工人致敬，他们付出艰苦、危险的工作时间，让我们能享受这些产品的成果，这些产品我们依赖、使用并希望真正喜欢。

One of the reasons I'm sharing these reports is because if God forbid something like this ever does happen at Tesla, I just want us all to know that it unfortunately happens at other plants as well. Don't freak out, but Elon did just meet with Donald Trump. The New York Times was reporting that Donald Trump was looking for some cash. Elon did quickly clarify, just to be super clear, I am not donating money to either candidate for US president. This one might be a bit controversial too, Bloomberg is saying that Elon emailed Tesla employees today asking them to vote for a new district attorney in Austin who will actually prosecute crimes. In the email, Elon said it was high time for change throughout the world.

我分享这些报告的一个原因是，如果不幸发生类似的事情在特斯拉，我只是想让我们都知道，不幸的是这种情况在其他工厂也会发生。不要惊慌，但埃隆刚刚见过唐纳德·特朗普。《纽约时报》报道唐纳德·特朗普正在寻找一些资金。埃隆很快澄清说，需要明确的是，我不会给美国总统候选人捐钱。这也许会有争议，彭博称埃隆今天给特斯拉员工发送电子邮件，要求他们投票给奥斯汀的新地方法官，他将真正起诉罪行。在电子邮件中，埃隆表示，现在是世界范围内实施变革的时候了。

Elon was urging employees, mostly around Tesla's headquarters in Austin, to support Jeremy Sillistine. In response, the current DA said, I'll let my opponent take the endorsement from the man who made Twitter an even more hateful toxic stew. The tides may finally be slowly turning when it comes to public DC fast charging. Last year, the average utilization of a US fast charging station not operated by Tesla doubled from 9% in January to 18% in December. That matters because stable auto is estimating a charging station must be pumping electrons around 15% of the time to turn a profit.

埃隆正在敦促员工，主要是在特斯拉总部奥斯汀周围的员工，支持杰里米·斯利斯廷。作为回应，现任地方检察官表示，我会让我的对手接受那个让推特变得更加令人厌恶的毒素混合物的支持。涉及公共直流快充时，潮流可能终于开始慢慢转变。去年，美国由特斯拉以外经营的快充站平均利用率从1月份的9%增长到12月份的18%。这很重要，因为稳定汽车估计，充电站必须在将电子推出的时间占到大约15%的比例，才能实现盈利。

Thus, surging utilization numbers represent more stations climbing into the black for the first time. The former CEO of EVGO said it's a threshold that truly makes my spirit soar. EVGO operates about 1000 stations in the US and in September, almost one third of them were humming around 20% of the time. The stable auto CEO said there's a widespread belief in the industry that fast charging is not a profitable business, but what we're seeing is for many stations that no longer holds true. They're saying there are diminishing returns though.

因此，激增的利用率数字代表更多的充电站首次实现盈利。EVGO的前首席执行官表示，这是一项真正让我振奋的门槛。EVGO在美国运营约1000个充电站，而在九月份，其中近三分之一的充电站几乎有20%的时间保持运转。稳健的汽车行业CEO表示，行业普遍认为快速充电不是一个盈利性的业务，但我们所见到的是对许多充电站来说这种说法已不再适用。他们也指出了递减的回报率。

A charging station may not turn a profit until it's at 15% use, but once utilization approaches 30%, the station is busy enough that drivers start to avoid it. If things keep trending this way throughout 2024 with EA stations getting fixed, paired with them rolling out new flagship stations, other companies like Gravity adding more to the mix, Nax obviously opening up to other automakers and Tesla continuing its rollout. We could be in a much better public charging place toward the back half of 2025.

一个充电站在使用率达到15％之前可能不会盈利，但一旦利用率接近30％，充电站就会变得非常繁忙，以至于司机开始避开它。如果2024年继续保持这种趋势，EA充电站得到修复，推出新的旗舰充电站，其他公司如Gravity增加更多插座，Nax显然向其他汽车制造商开放，而特斯拉继续扩大其的铺开。到了2025年后半年，我们的公共充电设施可能会得到很大的改善。

There's a new tool in Tempe fires arsenal that they hope will make the challenge of fighting electric vehicle fires a thing of the past. It's very easy to use. It's way less kickback than any of our fire hoses. It's called the cold cut Cobra and like the reptile it references, it helps firefighters strike at the heart of a fire. The biggest problem that we have when we fight these EV fires is getting penetration into the battery pack that's underneath, generally always underneath the floorboards of these vehicles.

在坦佩消防队的工具库中，有一种新工具，他们希望能够让消防队员对抗电动汽车火灾的挑战成为历史。这个工具非常容易使用。比起我们的任何消防水带，它反冲力更小。它被称为冷切眼镜蛇，就像它所指的爬行动物一样，它帮助消防员打击火灾的核心。我们在对抗这些电动汽车火灾时遇到的最大问题是要穿透通常位于车辆地板下的电池组。

This souped up power washer has two modes. The first mode uses water to cut a tiny hole in objects. The mix then douses whatever is on the other side of the hole with water, like a burning car battery. It's great to have. All right, let's see how it does with this giant steel container door. And just like that in a few seconds it cut through this steel door right here which is about an inch thick. Now the purpose for this device is so it can cut through a cars frame and before these fires take hours and hours to put out with thousands of gallons of water with this tool, we should be able to put those fires out within five to 10 minutes.

这款改装过的高压清洗机有两种模式。第一种模式使用水来在物体上切割一个微小的孔。然后水混合物喷洒在孔的另一边的任何东西上，就像一个燃烧的汽车电池。这很棒。好了，让我们看看它在这个巨大的钢制集装箱门上的表现如何。就像这样，在几秒钟内，它切穿了这扇大约一英寸厚的钢门。现在这个设备的目的是为了能够切割汽车的车架，以前这些火灾需要数小时才能消灭，并需要使用成千上万加仑的水，但是有了这个工具，我们应该能够在五到十分钟内扑灭这些火灾。

Open AI did respond to Elon. I'm not really going to get into it. I am curious though going forward how many of you are interested in the AI realm. Let me know below. Just say yes if you are and no if you're not. I would encourage you to read the blog post from open AI. I'll have it linked below if you're interested. I just want to highlight this one part. This email was sent from a redacted name to Elon. If historical trends are any indication progress in AI is primarily driven by systems compute data and infrastructure. The core algorithms we use today have remained largely unchanged from the 90s.

Open AI回应了埃隆。我不想深入讨论这个问题。不过我很好奇，未来有多少人对人工智能领域感兴趣。请在下方告诉我。如果你感兴趣，请说“是”，如果不感兴趣，请说“否”。我建议你阅读Open AI的博客文章。如果你感兴趣，我会在下面提供链接。我想强调一点。这封电子邮件是从一个名字被删除的人发送给埃隆的。如果历史趋势可以作为参考，人工智能的进步主要是由系统、计算数据和基础设施推动的。我们今天使用的核心算法基本上仍然没有变化，自90年代以来。

Not only that but any algorithmic advances published in a paper somewhere can be almost immediately re implemented and incorporated. I think this is a core learning we all need to internalize when we think about what companies have competitive advantages in this AI future. Just remember CDI compute data infrastructure replying to an open AI post on X. Elon said change your name to closed AI and I will drop the lawsuit. BMW is taking a page out of Lucid's marketing playbook which might not mean great things.

这不仅如此，而且在某处发表的任何算法进展都可以几乎立即重新实施并应用。我认为，当我们考虑哪些公司在人工智能未来具有竞争优势时，这是我们所有人需要内化的核心学习。只要记住 CDI 计算数据基础设施在某个 X 上回应 Open AI 发布的帖子。埃隆说改名为闭合AI，我就会撤诉。宝马正在学习 Lucid 的营销策略，这可能意味着不太好的事情。

The 2024 BMW BEV Conquest program offers a $1,000 incentive to owners of EVs from Audi, Mercedes, Polestar, Porsche, Tesla, Rivian and Lucid to switch to a BMW i4, i5 or iX. This promo also includes owner of the Mustang Mach-E and the iD4. Tesla stock closed the day at $176.54 down 2.32% while the Nasdaq was up 0.58%. And how about this? This might be the coolest thing we see all year. Tesla's volume today came in exactly in line with the average 30 day volume. Hope you have a wonderful day, you can find me on X linked below. Please like the video if you did.

2024年宝马BEV征服计划为奥迪，奔驰，Polestar，保时捷，特斯拉，Rivian和露西德的电动汽车车主提供1000美元的激励，邀请他们转投宝马i4，i5或iX。这个促销活动还包括野马Mach-E和iD4的车主。特斯拉股票收盘价为176.54美元，下降2.32%，而纳斯达克指数上涨0.58%。还有，这个消息你听说了吗？这可能是我们今年见过的最酷的事情。特斯拉今天的成交量恰好与30天平均成交量一致。祝你有一个美好的一天，你可以在下方链接找到我。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。

And a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.

特别感谢我的所有Patreon支持者。